Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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AgMIP

AgMIP

Modeling Our Agricultural Future

201507-08

By Shari Lifson, AgMIP Communications Coordinator, Columbia University

Our food production system, already stressed to meet today’s demands, will face even more challenges in the future to provide for a growing population and adapt to a changing climate. 

Farmers need to know if their current agricultural systems will continue to produce the yields of today, and what adaptations could be beneficial. Government policy-makers need to understand if food prices and availability will be impacted, and if so by how much and where. 

International organizations need to identify which regions will be the most vulnerable to the coming changes and thus likely to face food insecurity. 

On Wednesday, July 8 at 3:00 pm two NASA scientists who have been working on these important questions will be in Paris at Our Common Future Under Climate Change conference for a parallel session “Modeling Our Agricultural Future” at UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM II. 

Cynthia Rosenzweig (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America) will be presenting “The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Transdisciplinary and Multi-scale Agricultural Projections of Climate Change Impacts.”

AgMIP is a global community of scientists endeavoring to quantify climate change impacts on food security both regionally and globally. AgMIP scientists have developed standard methods of research combining climate, crop and economic models employed by teams around the globe to simulate the vulnerabilities of and adaptive strategies for their local agricultural systems. These multi-model assessments provide information about future crop yields and economic conditions, such as income and poverty rates, which can help agricultural decision-makers plan for the future.

Cynthia Rosenzweig will present an overview of the project, methodologies, initiatives and key points gleaned from the research so far.

Alex Ruane (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America) is the Lead Convener of the session on Agricultural Modeling. He is the Science Coordinator of AgMIP and Co-Leader of the C3MP initiative in AgMIP that will be highlighted in the presentation “Projecting grassland sensitivity to climate change from an ensemble of models” given by J.-F. Soussana (Inra, Paris, France). C3MP sensitivity testing aims to improve understanding of the impact of climate change on future agricultural production by utilizing site-calibrated crop models to coordinate projections of crop response under probabilistic climate change scenarios. The C3MP test has been run on 1233 sites to date. 

J.-F. Soussana will present how C3MP can be used to improve global projections of climate change impacts on grasslands and will provide first estimates of the impacts of climate change on temperate grasslands based on a range of climate scenarios.

For more information about AgMIP visit agmip.org.

This is part of a blog series profiling climate scientists, economists, social scientists and civil society members who are presenting and discussing innovative climate science at Our Common Future. For more follow @ClimatParis2015 and #CFCC15 on Twitter.

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