Our Common Future Under Climate Change

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Thomas Depenbusch

Thomas Depenbusch

Has China’s green transformation begun?

201507-08

By Sam Geall, University of Sussex

Sam is presenting at CFCC15 session on China’s climate policies and low carbon innovation on Thursday 9 July at 4:30pm

What is China’s position at the climate talks? What does that position mean for the country and for climate? Ask anyone following the UN-led climate negotiations and you will quickly realize these are some of the most keenly watched questions.

These negotiations have reached a critical moment before the Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in December. The three largest greenhouse-gas emitting economies – not only China, the world’s largest carbon emitter by volume, but also the United States and the European Union – have now put on the table what they are willing to offer under a new global agreement.

What, then, has China put forward? On 30 June, the country revealed its hand (known in UN-speak as an “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution”, or INDC). China will:
--cut its carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% by 2030, on a 2005 baseline;
--see a peak in its total emissions by 2030, with efforts to achieve this as early as possible;
--increase renewables in primary energy consumption to 20% by 2030, from 11.2% today; and
-- increase the volume of forest stock by around 4.5 billion cubic metres on the 2005 level.

China also set out a range of related pledges, including: to promote the low-carbon development of agriculture, “making efforts to achieve zero growth of fertilizer and pesticide utilization by 2020”; to promote “the share of green buildings in newly built buildings of cities and towns” to 50% by 2020; to establish a nationwide carbon emission trading system; and to establish a “Fund for South-South Cooperation on Climate Change”.

In sum, China made an ambitious commitment: increasing the share of renewables to 20% over the next 15 years, for example, entails adding some 800 to 1,000 GW of electricity generation capacity – equivalent to the entire US electricity system to date. But what about those secondary questions: how might this affect China? And what is the likely effect on the global climate?

For China, its INDC illuminates an enormous shift. Under what President Xi Jinping has called the “New Normal”, China has begun a transition from energy-intensive industries towards innovation and services as the basis of higher-quality growth.

Last year, China’s coal consumption fell by 2.9% on the previous year and continued to fall in the first quarter of 2015. This is more than the effect of a slowdown, say experts. It reflects instead a structural decline in the country’s coal industry, squeezed by environmental regulations and the rapid deployment of clean energy sources. China plans to install 200 GW of wind and 100 GW of solar by 2020, and is now the world’s leading investor in renewables.

For the climate, the situation is more complicated. To reach the globally agreed target to limit warming at 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average, the International Energy Agency’s scenario analysis sees China’s carbon intensity (CO2 emitted per unit of GDP) falling by around 80% below 2005 levels by 2030.

While many believe China will peak early (perhaps as soon as 2025), it is unclear at what absolute level its emissions will peak. Some argue that a successful UN agreement needs mechanisms to further ramp up the ambition for climate action and address such targets.

Either way, another set of important and related questions remain. These concern the road to enforcing such aggressive goals in China. In a country with a history of implementation problems with regard to environmental regulation, these are not only technical questions, but also political, social and economic questions.

These are questions that my colleagues and I will be addressing on Thursday in Paris at a session at Our Common Future Under Climate Change, the largest forum for the scientific community to come together ahead of the UN conference in December. Here we will be discussing China’s climate and low-carbon innovation policies, from the performance of its seven emissions trading pilot schemes to the reform of its electricity markets; from its innovation policies in support of clean energy technologies, to its transportation sector.

Together, these discussions should provide an update and some new analysis of China’s current and possible energy, climate and innovation futures – and an interpretation of China’s climate policy in the context of the government’s overall approach to development and modernization: a trajectory that seems to be kickstarting a drive towards a greener economy and society.

Sam Geall is Research Fellow at the Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, and Executive Editor of chinadialogue.net. He contributes research to the ESRC-funded project on Low-carbon innovation in China

This is part of a blog series profiling climate scientists, economists, social scientists and civil society members who are presenting and discussing innovative climate science at Our Common Future. For more follow @ClimatParis2015 and #CFCC15 on Twitter.

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