Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

Menu

PARALLEL SESSIONS

Day 1: State of Knowledge on Climate Change

Bringing together the latest knowledge from both natural and social sciences, this day addresses the cross-cutting issues related to observed changes in the climate system. It explores drivers and impacts, including GHG emissions, climate variability, extreme events, and physical-ecological-social interactions, connecting both advances and gaps in knowledge across sectors and regions.

Information about the time and location (UNESCO, UPMC) of the parallel sessions  will be available soon.

1102 - From past to future Climate Changes

Lead Convener: G. Ramstein (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

The session will highlight the need to orient science education towards sustainable development and present examples of climate change education initiatives whose success builds on holistic approaches of education for sustainable development.

1103- Climate variability and external forcings of the Common Era with special focus on the role of volcanic eruptions

Co-conveners : A. Robock, Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick - USA; M-A. Sicre, CNRS LOCEAN, Sorbonne universités, Paris, France

An unprecedented joint paleo-data and -modeling community effort has recently been undertaken by the IGBP-PAGES 2k network to compile and interpret high-resolution paleo climate records over the past 2000 years (CE, Common Era). From this analysis of climate variability and sensitivity to external forcings, volcanic eruptions have emerged as major drivers of climate. In this session, we welcome contributions on climate variability during the Common Era, using observations, proxy- or modeling-based approaches, or a combination of both. We also encourage discussions on new developments for data selection and climate reconstruction techniques, and new standards for data sharing and archival, with an emphasis on research addressing the role of volcanic forcing in modulating climate variability. Studies aiming at incorporating effects of volcanic eruptions and other external forcing mechanisms in climate prediction models as well as addressing the effects of volcanic events and their climate impact on society, including impacts on agriculture, and social disruption, and how similar eruptions could impact current society.

1104 - Climate services and information: from global change to local decisions

Lead Conveners: F. Otto (University of Oxford, Environmental change instutute, Oxford, United Kingdom); J. Sillmann (CICERO - Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo - Norway

Climate services, in a very broad sense, encompass the provision of detailed and tailored climate change information for decision making, seasonal forecasting activities, risk and hazard assessment and general knowledge-exchange. The Global Climate Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) was established to strengthen and coordinate existing and new activities related to the provision of climate services to enable society to better manage the risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and change. Climate services shall ideally provide a two-way exchange between users and providers of climate information with the aim to better inform adaptation decision-making.
This parallel session aims at reflecting on different interpretations of climate services, regional perspectives on tools, approaches and experiences with translating climate change information into local context for adaptation. Keynote contributions represent different perspectives as well as geographical locations of Europe, North America, Africa and Asia.

1105 (a) - Assessing climate observations

Lead Conveners: JL. Fellous (COSPAR, Executive Director, Paris, France) ; C. Baker (NOAA/OAR/ARL/ATDD, Oak Ridge, USA)

The session will showcase the rich datasets used by the global Earth science community. It will assess which climate observations are made, what are the remaining gaps identified by the scientific community for better understanding climate processes and their impacts on ecosystems and human society. It will also evaluate the technical capacity to observe new variables, and discuss whether and how the list of Essential Climate Variables should be updated. The conveners also invite papers that cover topics that include design and implementation of National Climate Observing Networks and the use of climate observing networks for improved climate data and information.

1106 - The Earth’s energy imbalance and exchanges at the atmosphere-ocean interface: from fundamental research to societal concern

Lead Conveners: K. Von Schuckmann (Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde - France); C. Guieu (CNRS-UPMC LOV, Villefranche sur mer - France)

The main cause of climate change is human activities, which alters the composition of the atmosphere and traps excess energy in the Earthsystem.Earth’senergyimbalance(EEI)resultsinplanetaryheatingand observedglobalwarming,whichchangesthenatural flow of energy through the climate system. Processes at the atmosphere-ocean interface play a critical role and affect marine ecosystems. This session explores our capability to measure and understand the exchanges of heat, energy, gases and particles in the Earth’s climate system, in particular in the quantification of the magnitude and spatial distribution of heating in the system, as well as how to adequately parameterize fundamental controlling processes.

1107 - Sea level rise and ice sheets

Lead Convener: M. Siegert (Imperial College London, Grantham Institute, London - UK)

The major contribution to future sea level change is likely to come from melting of the polar ice sheets. Considerable uncertainty exists as to how Antarctica and Greenland will change in the coming decades, however, limiting our ability to predict sea level rise with certainty. In this session established information and new knowledge of global sea-level, based on measurements of both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, and quantification of uncertainty, will be discussed to provide a state-of-art account of future sea level change, and the cryospheric response to climate and ocean warming.

1108 - Middle Atmosphere influence on Climate

Lead Convener: S. Godin Beekmann (CNRS, IPSL/LATMOS, Guyancourt - France)

This session addresses recent research on the middle atmosphere dynamics and changing composition, and their connections to the troposphere and the surface, under the combined effects of increased greenhouse gases abundances and increased ozone levels due to the Montreal Protocol. Contributions are expected on observed changes in stratospheric circulation and composition, on numerical simulations of the middle atmosphere and its coupling to the troposphere in response to the greenhouse gas increase, and other processes related to climate change.

1109 - Understanding the Earth’s changing water cycle

Lead Convener: C. Stubenrauch (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Université de Paris 6, Paris - France)

Water vapour is source of clouds and of precipitation. Condensation of water and dissipation of clouds / precipitation affects the atmospheric circulation through heat transfer. Therefore clouds play a dominant role in the energy and water cycles. The interaction of all components (including those with aerosols and land surface) leads to changes of these cycles in a changing climate.
Understanding of how sources of fresh water are to change in a changing climate is a grand challenge that must be addressed if we are to understand and predict changes to the planet’s water cycle and impacts of these changes. Underpinning this challenge is the need to observe and predict changes to precipitation within the evolving climate. A number of fundamental questions loom including how regional precipitation amount, type, spatial and temporal distribution, and intensity change within a changing global environment, what processes are most responsible for these changes and how these changes couple to and influence other components of the climate system and society

1112 - The Arctic Climate system

Lead Conveners: DD. Rousseau (CNRS, Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers, Paris - France); J. Stroeve (University of Colorado, National snow and ice data center, Boulder - USA)

The Arctic has experienced some of the most dramatic, complex and interlinked changes currently occurring anywhere on Earth. Since the Arctic is a key player of the Earth System any changes in the region are likely to affect the global weather patterns and climate, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The international scientific community has undeniable strengths and duty to help answer fundamental questions related to processes and feedbacks involved in Arctic climate change and variability and their regional and global environmental, economic, and societal impacts. The main focus of this session is to discuss the state of the art in our understanding of the Arctic climate system at process levels and evaluate the impact of ongoing changes on different components, their coupling and impacts on the global climate system and society. In particular, we solicit presentations on Arctic System variability, its linkages to lower latitude weather, climate, and extreme events, as well as inter-comparisons of global and regional climate model simulations of past, present, and future Arctic climate change.

1115- GHG Monitoring

Co-conveners: M., LSCE, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette - France; F-M. Breon, IPSL, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette - France

This session is intended to present and discuss the current GHG observation networks and stations, its capabilities and limitations for the monitoring of Carbon fluxes and other GHG. Contributions about mitigation solution implying CO2, CH4 or other GHG are also welcome in the session.

1116 - Biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change

Lead Convener: C. Schaedel (Northern Arizona University, Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Flagstaff - USA)

The degree of future climate change and its response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases is dependent on the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases which remain in the atmosphere. IPCC AR5 identified the interactions of the global carbon cycle with the climate system as a major influence on the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations through various biophysical and biogeochemical interactions and feedbacks on land and in the ocean. Global soils and in particular permafrost soils store immense amounts of carbon that are vulnerable to decomposition with a changing climate. Small changes in soil carbon stocks across the globe will have a significant impact on atmospheric carbon concentrations at decadal and century timescales and could increase the rate of future climate change.
Analysis and representation of carbon-climate and carbon-concentration feedbacks in Earth System Models is crucial in better understanding the role of biogeochemical process as well as identifying knowledge gaps that limit our understanding of biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change..

1117 - Climate variability and external forcings of the Common Era with special focus on the role of volcanic eruptions

Lead Conveners: A. Robock (Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick - USA); M.A. Sicre (CNRS LOCEAN, Sorbonne universités, Paris - France)

An unprecedented joint paleo-data and -modeling community effort has recently been undertaken by the IGBP-PAGES 2k network to compile and interpret high-resolution paleo climate records over the past 2000 years (CE, Common Era). From this analysis of climate variability and sensitivity to external forcings, volcanic eruptions have emerged as major drivers of climate. In this session, we welcome contributions on climate variability during the Common Era, using observations, proxy- or modeling-based approaches, or a combination of both. We also encourage discussions on new developments for data selection and climate reconstruction techniques, and new standards for data sharing and archival, with an emphasis on research addressing the role of volcanic forcing in modulating climate variability. Studies aiming at incorporating effects of volcanic eruptions and other external forcing mechanisms in climate prediction models as well as addressing the effects of volcanic events and their climate impact on society, including impacts on agriculture, and social disruption, and how similar eruptions could impact current society.

1118 (a) - Attribution of extreme events: How are high impact extreme events changing and why ?

Lead Conveners: S. Planton (Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse - France) ; R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay - France)

In this 3-hour session we propose to address two main questions successively addressed in the two slots of the session:


  • Whatcausedobservedchangesinextremeweatherandclimateevents?

  • How have impacts of extreme events changed and how have human influences on climate contributed to these changes?


Novel results obtained by the Fifth IPCC Assessment, updates of the science since completion of the report, and presentations providing a synthesis across regions and systems of these issues are encouraged. We also invite contributions that analyse progress and limitations in event attribution and in filling the significant gaps which prohibit a truly comprehensive global picture of historical impacts. Contributions related to the themes identified in the WCRP grand challenge on climate extremes (http://www.wcrp- climate.org/gc-extreme-events) are particularly welcome.

1119 (a) - Extreme hydrological events: Deciphering changes in hazard and risk at different time-scales

Lead Convener: H. Kreibich (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam - Germany)

Extreme hydrological events, particularly floods but also low flows and droughts, have huge economic and social impacts. Hazards and risks seem to have increased and further increases are expected due to global change.
These risks are the result of extreme hydrological events in combination with human activities and their feedbacks. These process interactions are complex and heterogeneous in space and time and difficult to understand and model on local, regional and global scales. The question is open, how the different drivers of change that act in a given catchment superimpose each other, and to which extent different drivers are responsible for changes in the hydrological cycle and in the risks due to hydrological extremes.
Thus, the main aim of this session is to present and jointly discuss results from various disciplines on the effects of climate and global change on hydrological extremes and their consequences at different time-scales and in various regions of the world. In bringing together experts from the natural hazards and climate change community we aim to advance the knowledge and scientific discourse on detection and attribution of changes as well as on modelling future changes.

1122 - Global warming hiatus

Lead Convener: C. Jeandron (Sauvons le Climat, Taverny - France)

Although the last decade is the warmest since 1850, the rate of atmospheric warming from 1998 to 2012 has significantly slowed- down. This key event has received no definitive explanation yet, in spite of the large number of possible causes that have already been adduced. Our study is the only one which considers the additional phenomena which arose at the beginning of the 21th century almost simultaneously to the appearance of this hiatus in the warming trend of the atmosphere: acceleration in the disappearance of the summer arctic sea ice, increase of the rate of ice sheets and glacier melting and of the steric component of sea level rise.

1121 - Air Pollution and Climate Change linkages and Health Impact Assessment

Lead Conveners: D. Hauglustaine (LSCE-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette - France) ; T. Butler (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam - Germany)

Air quality and climate are closely linked. Climate change can alter levels of air pollution through changes to meteorology, affecting both atmospheric chemistry on the local scale, and long range transboundary transport of air pollution. Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors can also affect climate through their direct and indirect radiative forcing. Further efforts are needed to reduce air pollution concentrations and their harmful effects on the health of individuals. At the same time, policy makers are increasingly confronting the challenges of climate change adaptation and mitigation.
This session will explore the state of knowledge of the linkages between air quality and climate change. It will also address the pressing gaps remaining in knowledge and understanding of air quality and climate change health impact assessment at various scales. A special emphasis will be given to how air quality and health may be directly impacted by policies that aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and how climate-related changes in air quality could have important implications for human health, particularly in cities where urbanization and heat islands aggravate air quality problems.

1123 - Climate change education for sustainable development

Lead Convener: J. Heiss (UNESCO, Paris - France)

The session will highlight the need to orient science education towards sustainable development and present examples of climate change education initiatives whose success builds on holistic approaches of education for sustainable development.

2212 (a) - Climate change and freshwater – 1: State of knowledge

Lead Conveners: C. Cudennec (IAHS, Allenvi, Agrocampus Ouest, Rennes - France); L. Longuevergne (CNRS, University Rennes 1, Geosciences Rennes, Rennes - France)

The freshwater cycle is a strong structural and functional driver linking processes, locations, scales, uses and hazards, and socio- institutional entities and dynamics. The freshwater cycle also provides a key interface between the atmosphere, the geosphere, the biosphere and the anthroposphere; and between the basic needs, especially for water, food, energy and health. Although the fundamental physics behind climate processes is rather straightforward, the impact of climate change on local water resources is difficult to quantify with limited uncertainty (IPCC 2014).
Two sessions will address these issues across the first days of the conference, with a conceptual progression from actual knowledge towards approaches to shape the future.
This first session will address the state of knowledge and uncertainties about the impact of climate change on hydrological processes and associated resources and hazards, the underlying complexity, and the major scientific challenge of de-convoluting the causal effects of climate change and other changes which impact on the hydrology, i.e. the issue of attribution as identified in the IPCC (2014) chapter on freshwater.

2229 - Cities and their environments: Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation strategies across scales from rural to urban

Lead Convener: M. Musy (ENSA Nantes, IRSTV FR CNRS 2488, Nantes - France)

This session aims to gather and debate the state of the art regarding the possible impacts from climate change at different scales and across the rural-urban continuums. It will consider alternatives for resilience for the future in recognition of the different relationships between sustainable development (environmental, social and economic) and climate change.
Topics of interest include (but are not limited to):


  • Comparisons, trade-offs and synergies in strategies for building climate resilience from local scale to city scale or along the continuum from rural to urban,

  • Illustrations of response options to reduce climate change risks, in the specific context of the session

  • Policy and Regulatory tools for adaptation and mitigation of urban layouts and /or city-climate interactions.

2231 - Cultural Heritage facing up to Climate Change, Sea Level Rise and Pollution

Lead Conveners: MY. Daire (CNRS, CReAAH Centre de Recherche en Archéologie, Archéosciences, Histoire, Rennes - France); C. Sabbioni (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di scienze del atmosfera e del clima, Bologna - Italy)

Climate change threatens Cultural Heritage materials outdoor and indoor both by extreme events (extreme winds and precipitations, flooding, heat waves, drought, pollution peaks) and slow changes (temperature, humidity, time of wetness, number of tropical nights and frost days). These slow changes are in strong or in weak correlation with air pollution. They lead to salt crystallization, freeze-thaw damage, submersion of monuments on littoral, swelling-shrinkage of expansive clay minerals in soils threatening the monument stability, biomass accumulation on surfaces in urban and rural areas, deterioration of wood and paper, pest infestation of collections…Coastal heritage in its broadest sense is an “at risk” resource faced with long-term erosion and the sudden damages and coastal managers have to moderate and deal with these impacts which can lead to the loss of coastal heritage. This heritage is essential to build our scientific knowledge and to assess the coastal evolution through the past millennium in order to enable more accurate predictions of future changes and their potential impacts. This session will explore the vulnerability of the threatened heritage and the way scientists may contribute to the building of scientifically based mitigation and adaptation in response to that threat.

2242 - Migration dynamics under current and future climate change

Lead Convener: F. Gemenne (University of Versailles-Saint-Quentin, Guyancourt - France)

Throughout History, regional and occasional climate changes have produced significant population movements. As of today, environmental changes count amongst the driving forces of migration dynamics on the planet. The ongoing global warming is expected to lead to important population shifts associated with sea level rise but also to climate changes in regions of high density populations.
This session will seek to provide a state-of-art of current research on migration dynamics associated with current and future climate change, and outline key policy options under discussion, ahead of COP21.

2245 - Modelling the complexities of the Earth System

Lead Convener: H. Le Treut ( Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris - France)

The development of interdisciplinary models linking the representation of climate change with a variety of of impact processes has permitted an important progress in the capacity of the scientific community to address problems reflecting widely different societal concerns.

3314 - Innovate for addressing climate change challenges: examples from different industries

Lead Convener: L. Johannsdottir (University of Iceland, Environment and Natural Resources Masters Program & School of Business, Reykjavik - Iceland)

The session contributes to identifying how solutions for promoting greater sustainability and removing barriers can be developed among different industries. Benchmarking across industries and continents can contribute to the development of innovative solutions as it requires industry leaders to think outside the box by studying actions of other industries. The session tackles the following issues:


  • How is the European pulp and paper sector going to reduce its own emissions by 80% by 2050? What disruptive technologies have been identified? How were ideas developed?

  • In the light of rise in concrete demand for infrastructure development in the near future how can concrete production be made more sustainable?

  • What is the way forward for aviation to move away from increased emissions of carbon emissions? What technologies and market-based measures are needed? What are the main barriers hindering actions and how is it possible to overcome them?

3329 - How Might East African Landscapes Respond to Future Climate Change?

Lead Conveners: P. Lane (Archaeology & Ancient History, Uppsala - Sweden) ; B. Hazard (Institut Interdisciplinaire d'anthropologie du contemporain, Institut National des Sciences Humaines et Sociales - CNRS, Paris - France)

Drawing on diverse kinds of environmental, archaeological, archival and ethnographic data sets generated by the Resilience in East African Landscapes (REAL) project, we intend to illustrate the nature and character of the evolution of different regional socialecological systems over the last ca. 500 years, while also exploring how the political ecology of these landscapes has been transformed. To do this, we will compare and contrast the responses of various temporal and spatial dynamics of socio-ecological systems in East African mountain regions (such as around Mts Kilimanjaro and Kenya), semi-arid and arid lands and those recorded for various lakes and river-valley systems. We also aim to demonstrate how best to extract lessons from and knowledge of past practices, so as to improve the design of policies and programs meant to address the challenges of the future.