Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France



Day 2: Landscapes of Our Common Future

Looking at future scenarios in the context of the climate change, this day explores possible impacts across and between systems and sectors both in the medium (2030-2050) and long term (2070 and beyond). Contrasted scenarios are investigated as well as their consequences on the interactions between physical, ecological and human systems. An emphasis is placed on examining risks and uncertainties, thresholds and tipping points.

Information about the time and location (UNESCO, UPMC) of the parallel sessions  will be available soon.

1101 - From the holocene to the Anthropocene: the history of human-environmental interactions

Lead Convener: F. Sylvestre (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence - France)

Humans began to transform the Earth system several thousand years ago. At the same time, cultural and technical developmentswere strongly conditioned by environmental change, including climate change. Paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic studies canprovide information on the transition of systems from natural variability (in the absence of major anthropogenic perturbation) tosystems influenced and modified by humans.An improved understanding of the integrated history of human-environment interactions and their legacy effects on futureenvironmental changes is vital to the design of management strategies for a sustainable future.

1105 (b) - Quality and availability of data for global sustainability

Lead Conveners: M. Mokrane (ICSU World Data System IPO, c/o NICT, Koganei, Tokyo - Japan) ; D. Ojima (Colorado State University and Future Earth US Hub, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory - Fort Collins, USA)

The session aims to showcase the rich datasets used by the global Future Earth community and how specific activities tackle the challenges of data management, of data gaps and bias assessment, and of data sharing and integration to advance inference for sustainability science.

1110 - Observing the changing ocean climate

Lead Convener: A. Fischer (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO, Paris - France)

The oceans are key regulators of climate. They help reduce the rate of atmospheric warming by absorbing about 30% of annual carbon emissions, and 90% of the excess heat in the climate system since 1971. This buffering effect is not without consequences on ocean chemistry and ecosystems. The oceans have become 26% more acidic since the start of the industrial revolution, and are more stratified and less oxygenated. Different ocean regimes including the tropical, polar, and deep oceans, western and eastern boundary current systems, each play unique roles in the global ocean climate, and have their own knowledge challenges. These climate-induced changes will affect the ocean, its biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being in ways that we are only beginning to understand. Long-term, globally-coordinated and high-quality sustained ocean observations underpin our knowledge of the role of the ocean in climate. They allow us to monitor changes and feed models that predict the evolution of climate and its consequences on ecosystems, and to provide a basis for climate services. This knowledge informs and supports government climate and environmental policies. The session will conclude with ocean observing and modeling challenges, gaps, opportunities, and recommendations.

1111 - Climate variability, change and vulnerability in the Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans

Lead Convener: E. Guilyardi (LOCEAN/IPSL, UPMC, Paris - France)

The Pacific, Indian and Southern oceans are home to large and unique reservoirs of marine and terrestrial biodiversity and therefore subject to vulnerability from climate variations. These oceans also host major climate phenomena such as El Niño, Tropical Convergence zones, the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Southern Annular Mode and other modes of natural climate variability. Climate change represents a considerable threat due to the convolution of slow trends and potential changes in that natural variability. Threats come for rising sea levels, temperature extremes, oxygen minimum zones, reduced carbon uptake, droughts and changing rainfall and teleconnection patterns which may impact not only the rate of climate change but also fisheries, agriculture and natural vegetation. This session will discuss the current status of physical and biogeochemical understanding and projections of climate change in these oceans, robust findings and remaining uncertainties, as well as potential socio-economic and environmental impacts of those changes, on marine and terrestrial ecosystems as well as human societies.

1114 - Global emissions and their implications for climate targets

Lead Convener: P. Friedlingstein (University of Exeter, Exeter - UK)

Human activities transform the global carbon cycle and the cycles of other greenhouse gases, aerosols and reactive atmospheric compounds, leading to major changes in the concentrations of these species. This has largely contributed to the observed climate change but also to a rise in surface ocean CO2, and a redistribution of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems. One of the headlines of the IPCC AR5 is "Cumulative emissions of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and beyond", meaning that a given climate target (e.g. 2°C) implies a limited amount of cumulative CO2 emissions. The exact quantification of this amount depends on the properties of the Earth system and on the mix of CO2 and non-CO2 forcing. A detailed and integrated understanding of anthropogenic emissions is therefore fundamental to support decisions related to mitigation. The transdisciplinary nature of emissions information presents both opportunities and challenges for researchers and policymakers, and there are still large uncertainties in emissions quantification at global and regional scales. The session will promote discussions on issues related to global emissions and to the climatic implications of cumulative budgets of greenhouse gases and short-lives atmospheric compounds.

1113 - Climate Extremes: Patterns, Mechanisms and Impacts

Lead Convener: S. Wang (Utah State University, Climate Center, Logan, Utah - USA)

We bring together the latest knowledge in the study of climatic extreme events focusing in works addressing their characteristics, distribution and relationships with regional hydrological cycles, regional teleconnection patterns, natural variability modes and related impacts. Information obtained in this session constitutes a first step in understanding the magnifying extreme events and developing response plans for the protection of socio-economic activities.

We invite abstracts focusing on the mechanisms of changing climate extremes, which encompass a range of problems and approaches. This line of research involves weather model forecasting of storms, attribution of changes in past extremes to distinguish from natural to human related causes, improving climate models for seasonal-to-decadal prediction, earth system modeling of real-life impacts such as ecosystem and hydrological responses, land cover and even economical changes due to various extremes.

1117 - Understanding decadal variations in the climate system and implications for the future

Co-convener: D. Swingedouw, Universite de Bordeaux, UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC, Pessac - France; C. Deser, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate analysis section, Boulder - USA

While the evidence for anthropogenic climate change continues to strengthen, scientific and societal interest is increasing concerning possibility of decadal prediction at the regional scale. One of the main sources of uncertainty to such predictions lies in the inherently chaotic character of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation, their interactions through climatic modes and their imprints on climate variability at multidecadal time scale. The session objectives are to present the current knowledge on: (i) The extent to which natural variability have obscured the climate system response to anthropogenic in the past (hiatus or acceleration periods)? (ii) The extent to which such changes will limit the predictability of continental and regional changes over the next decades. (iii) The physical understanding of natural variability as well as the known sources of uncertainty, their possible connection and reduction. (iv) The need and necessary ingredients to move towards a probabilistic approach to assess risks related to regional climate change. We expect studies using different complementary tools such as climate models, spatial or in situ measurements and even paleoclimate reconstructions, which can help to provide a wider distance concerning theses events and the natural variations of the climate system.

1118 (b) - Attribution of extreme events: How are High impact extreme events changing and why ?

Lead Conveners: S. Planton (Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse - France); R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay - France)

In this 3-hour session we propose to address two main questions successively addressed in the two slots of the session:

  • What caused observed changes in extreme weather and climate events?

  • How have impacts of extreme events changed and how have human influences on climate contributed to these changes?

Novel results obtained by the Fifth IPCC Assessment, updates of the science since completion of the report, and presentations providing a synthesis across regions and systems of these issues are encouraged. We also invite contributions that analyse progress and limitations in event attribution and in filling the significant gaps which prohibit a truly comprehensive global picture of historical impacts. Contributions related to the themes identified in the WCRP grand challenge on climate extremes (http://www.wcrp-climate.org/gc-extreme-events) are particularly welcome.

1119 (b) - Extreme hydrological events: deciphering changes in hazard and risk at different time-scales

Lead Convener: H. Kreibich (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam - Germany)

Extreme hydrological events, particularly floods but also low flows and droughts, have huge economic and social impacts. Hazards and risks seem to have increased and further increases are expected due to global change.

These risks are the result of extreme hydrological events in combination with human activities and their feedbacks. These process interactions are complex and heterogeneous in space and time and difficult to understand and model on local, regional and global scales. The question is open, how the different drivers of change that act in a given catchment superimpose each other, and to which extent different drivers are responsible for changes in the hydrological cycle and in the risks due to hydrological extremes.

Thus, the main aim of this session is to present and jointly discuss results from various disciplines on the effects of climate and global change on hydrological extremes and their consequences at different time-scales and in various regions of the world. In bringing together experts from the natural hazards and climate change community we aim to advance the knowledge and scientific discourse on detection and attribution of changes as well as on modelling future changes.

2201 - Between the cracks of future climate projections: exploring weather events and climate scenarios with no precedence

Lead Convener: B. Van Den Hurk (KNMI, Model Development, De Bilt - Netherlands)

This session invites contributions that focus on alternative approaches to predicting and mapping the potential impacts of a changing climate, including how these approaches contribute to planning and decision making processes at a range of scales. Examples include:

  • Exploring effects of extreme weather events and changing climate scenarios on socio-economic and environmental systems

  • Creating tailored narratives of future weather events, or placing recent events in the context of climate change

  • Analysis of events or processes that have no analogues in current observational or model projection archives.

2202 - Turn down the Heat: Climate Change Impacts, Development and Lock-in

Lead Convener: C. Reyer C. (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam - Germany)

Despite increasing numbers of studies, knowledge about the impacts of climate change on natural and human systems as the world moves from 0.8°C of current warming towards a 2°C, 3 or 4°C world is fragmented. This pertains not only to the frequency and intensity of impacts but also to their interaction and the crossing of thresholds. Furthermore, cascades of impacts can be expected in which physical and biophysical changes trigger crucial impacts in human systems across different sectors that may turn out to be irreversible – at least on human timescales – and affect population groups in different ways. Moreover, the reality that yesterday's and the risks that today’s socio-technical-political decisions profoundly constrain possibilities of systems for coping with current and future impacts through mitigation or adaptation is eminent and provides grounds for structural alternative decisions.

2203 - Defining dangerous climate change: Contributions from the AR5 ‘Key Risks’ and ‘Reasons for Concern’ frameworks and future directions

Lead Convener: R. Licker (Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton - USA); M. Oppenheimer; B. O'Neill (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder - USA)

The IPCC's 'Reasons for Concern' (RFC) framework provides policymakers with an aggregated assessment of impacts, risks, and vulnerabilities to increasing levels of global warming. The related 'Key Risks' (KR) framework provides policymakers with a set of potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change that may be particularly severe. This session will review AR5's RFC and KR frameworks and assess their utility in informing evaluations of dangerous climate change. The session will also generate discussion between scientists and policymakers on how the frameworks might be improved for future evaluations of risk at different levels of global mean temperature change.

2204 - A world above 2°C global warming: understanding risks and developing transformative solutions

Conveners: R. Betts (University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter - UK); B. O'neill (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder - USA)

This session focuses on risk assessment and transformative solutions relating to high-end climate change and uncertain but severe risks. Key questions include: what states of regional climates and weather extremes are implied by particular levels of global warming, eg, 2°C, 4°C or 6°C? How likely are these to be reached, or over what timescales? To what extent can impact risks be avoided by reducing the level of warming? How can models be advanced to better represent adaptation processes and limits, and cross-sectoral and cross-scale interactions to support the testing of systemic solutions? Can thresholds be identified beyond which current policies become unfit for purpose or impossible to implement, and how does this inform the need for new policy approaches and transformational adaptation in the face of high-end scenarios? What methods can be used to maximise the active participation of relevant stakeholders in defining high-end scenarios? We will also explore the ethical dimensions of how to relate to infinite and existential risks in our culturally diverse and fragmented world. A range of perspectives are encouraged from different fields of study in natural and social science and the humanities, in order to promote inter-disciplinary discussion of this complex topic.

2205 - Multi-sectoral analysis of risks to climate change (hot spots) at 2 °C warming

Lead Conveners: D. Jacob (HZG/Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg - Germany); S. Kovats (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Social and Environmental Health Research, London - UK)

This session will be multi-disciplinary and provide a recent update of the scientific evidence based on what 2°C of global warming means for Europe and global vulnerability hot-spots. In IMPACT2C key innovations include sectoral and crosssectoral assessments that are aligned to the 2°C scenario for impacts and adaptation. The session will include new methods for integration of evidence within and across sectors (e.g. as developed in the Europe Chapter of WG II AR5).

2206 - The World in 2050 – What does it look like and how do we get there?

Lead Conveners: N. Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg - Austria); J. Rockström (Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm university, Stockholm - Sweden)

Today, the necessary integrated comprehensive quantitative understanding of scenarios for achieving sustainable development, accounting for the various inter‐linkages between the economy, technology, environment, climate, human development and planetary boundaries, does not exist. With the adoption of the SDGs, the world will set out very clear and ambitious global goals across social, economic and environmental areas, and although there is recognition that there are interactions between and among these goals (e.g., between energy and climate, between food security and ecosystem, etc.,) there is, as yet, no attempt to assess the viability of achieving these multiple social‐economic‐environmental goals simultaneously. The World in 2050 Project (TWI2050) will explore the implications of the necessary transformative sustainable development pathways and the possible ‘degrees of freedom’ to meet economic development goals within a safe operating space of a stable planet.

2207 - Ocean Change: Understanding and projecting the impacts of warming and acidification on natural and human systems

Lead Conveners: JP. Gattuso (CNRS and Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d'Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-mer - France); O. Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland, Global Change Institute, Brisbane - Australia)

The Ocean is critical to life on Earth through its regulation of atmospheric gases, stabilisation of planetary heat, and provision of food and resources to well over 3 billion people worldwide. Despite its importance, however, our understanding of its responses to key drivers such as ocean warming and acidification has been relatively limited. The recent consensus report from WGII of the IPCC AR5 significantly corrects this deficit by including a number of ocean-focused chapters for the first time. AR5 has identified important changes that pose serious risks to components such as ecosystems, fisheries, and coastal livelihoods. This session brings together the latest IPCC consensus on the Ocean, and provides an integrated and updated perspective on the changes, risks and projections for both natural and human systems. A number of key questions will be discussed. The ensuing discussion will also facilitate the construction of key messages for the COP21 negotiation process on the Ocean and associated issues.

2208 - Deep-sea ecosystems and climate-change: new perspectives to address knowledge gaps in impact assessment

Lead Convener: N. Le Bris (Sorbonne Universités UPMC Univ Paris 06 - CNRS LECOB, Marine station / oceanological observatory, Banyuls-sur-mer - France)

Global exploration efforts progressively reveals the unique biodiversity of deep-sea ecosystems The long-ignored diversity of deep-seabed habitats and communities, and their tremendous heterogenity, is now increasingly accessible with the development of submarine technologies.

Though their sensitivity to climate change mostly remained unconstrained, growing evidences of indirect effects from atmospheric forcings and rapid ecological responses are supported by observations. Significant climate-driven impacts on ocean biogeochemistry are furthermore hypothesized from climatic scenarios.

To develop effective conservation strategies in the deep-sea, it is thus of crucial importance to assess the combined effects of climate change and resource exploitation. The dynamic drivers of these particular ecosystems, however, just start to be understood, and so are their capacities to respond to disturbances and the retroaction processes they sustain.

Advanced approaches and tools (sensors, omics, data processing, imaging) set a new frame for the development of a significant international momentum on this overlooked but largest component of the Earth system in the context of climate change.

2209 - Transformative pathways to sustain marine ecosystems and their services under climate change

Lead Conveners: M. Barange (Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth - UK); JL. Valdes (Unesco , Oceanography, Paris - France)

This session has two major objectives. First, to synthesise the state of the art in the science of ocean and marine climate change, emerging from the IPCC AR5 and updated from the 3rd international symposium on climate change in the world’s oceans, which took place in March 2015. Second, in the framework that scientific evidence provides, we will bring researchers and practitioners in a range of fields, from ocean climate to resource management, from economics to governance, to explore the transformative pathways that climate change will demand from users of oceans and seas. The focus of the session is on positive outlooks to the adaptations needed as we move into a future characterised by a world of 9 billion people and significant climate changes.

2210 - Coastal Impacts of Climate Change

Lead Convener: V. Duvat-Magnan (UMR 7266 University of La Rochelle - National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS), Geography, La Rochelle - France)

This session will address the coastal impacts of climate change through three key topics. First, it will focus on small islands to explore their differentiated vulnerability profiles in the face of climate change based on the consideration of the drivers controlling vulnerability. Indeed, the diversity of islands needs to be better apprehended and recognized for relevant adaptation strategies to be designed and implemented. Second, this session will focus on sea level rise and address its consequences for physical, natural and urban environments, under different global warming scenarios, and investigate where and when different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios might challenge our ability to adapt to future coastal hazards. Third, this session will deal with the impacts of climate change on mangroves. Sea level rise could promote landward mangrove migration, while high levels of atmospheric CO2 could enhance mangrove tree growth. A lower frequency of extreme low temperatures should facilitate a poleward expansion of mangroves, whereas extreme events should lead to mangrove retreat or demise. These processes are recognized variably worldwide. Yet, climate change impacts associated with direct, growing anthropogenic disturbances, should drastically alter mangrove ecosystem services.

2211 - Climate change in mountains: from impacts to resilience

Lead Convener: M. Beniston (University of Geneva, Institute for Environmental Sciences, CAROUGE / Geneva - Switzerland)

Mountains represent significant features covering nearly one-quarter of the world’s terrestrial surface. Because climatic conditions vary with elevation, this leads to a significant diversity of species and habitat over short horizontal distances and sharp vertical gradients. Mountain areas also support a range of socioeconomic activities that have experienced considerable change in the last two centuries, resulting from pressures on natural resources and traditions imposed by increasingly-industrialized societies.

Rapid climate change occurring in mountains carries broad implications since they have long been a source of ecosystem services and natural resources. Climate triggered hazards (floods, landslides, debris-flows, glacier melt, river erosion) will in a future climate add further environmental pressures on both social and natural systems. This session will therefore address how to best address issues of climate-related impacts in mountain regions and how to enhance the resilience of such regions in order to enable local populations to pursue their economic activities while simultaneously enabling lowland populations to continue benefiting from key mountain resources such as water.

2212 (b) - Climate change and freshwater – 2: Shaping the Future

Lead Conveners: A. Mishra (UNESCO, Paris - France) ; H. Lins (US Geological Survey, Reston - USA)

The freshwater cycle, including groundwater, is embedded in the climatic system. The freshwater cycle is also a strong structural and functional driver linking processes, locations, scales, uses and hazards, and socio-institutional entities and dynamics. The freshwater cycle also provides a key interface between the atmosphere, the geosphere, the biosphere and the anthroposphere; and between the basic needs, especially for water, food, energy and health. Although the fundamental physics behind climate processes is rather straightforward, the impact of climate change on local water resources is difficult to quantify with limited uncertainty (IPCC 2014).

2213 - Ecological feedbacks to climate change

Lead Conveners: L. Abbadie (Sorbonne Universités, UPMC, Institute of Ecology and Environment, Paris - France); JF. Silvain (Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversité, Paris - France)

Biodiversity and ecosystems can amplify or dampen climate change. Any change of the structure and functioning of the ecosystem can alter the albedo and the surface temperature, the evapotranspiration and rainfall in adjacent ecosystems, the aerosols production, the surface roughness that impacts the efficiency of water and energy exchange with atmosphere, the radiation absorption through LAI change, the balance between greenhouse gas emission and sequestration in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, etc.

2214 - Climate-ready adaptation for conservation and ecosystem services

Lead Conveners: E. Critchley (Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, London - UK); S. Lavorel (CNRS, Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, Grenoble - France)

The interaction of climate change with other drivers of global change amplifies existing risks to social-ecological systems, and creates new ones. The potential magnitude of these impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems and associated uncertainties call for a policy response, but this will require profound changes in approaches to decision making.

Adaptation to climate change should be adopted as a long-term component of economic, social, political and cultural transformations, rather than focusing on avoiding or accommodating change in the short term. Therefore new approaches to adaptation are urgently required.

This session will discuss what we currently know about ecosystem responses to climate change, the implications for conservation and ecosystem services management, and the tools, practices and processes that can help facilitate the changes required to help encourage appropriate forms of adaptation and transformation.

2215 - Tropical degraded forests response to global change: current knowledge and cross-cutting research challenges for monitoring and processes understanding

Co-conveners: S. Luque (IRSTEA - France); P. Sist (CIRAD, Montpellier - France); B.Mora (GOFC-GOLD LC Project Office, Wageningen - Netherlands)

Finding solutions towards a better understanding of the forests systems is crucial to mitigate global warming effects. This session aims to present current knowledge of the resilience of tropical degraded forest systems to climate change. The session also will target a review of the new generation of remote sensing tools and capabilities, examples will focus on tropical forest monitoring and measurements in particular for degraded systems and forests in transition. Also, there will be a brief presentation of the sourcebook for biodiversity monitoring in tropical forests that will be a living document updated every year, made available on the internet.

2216 - Climate smart forestry- Integrating mitigation and adaptation into sustainable development

Conveners: C. Orazio (EFI, EFIATLANTIC, cestas - France), S. Luque ( University of St Andrews - UK), J-L. Peyron (GIP Ecofor - France), R. Jandl (University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences - Austria)

Forests provide multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously and are an integral component of human well-being in many societies. Climate change alters forestry substantially via a changing pattern of biotic and abiotic disturbances and a change in habitat characteristics. Forests also mitigate climate change by removing CO2 (a major Greenhouse Gas) from the atmosphere. Adaptation of forest management is challenging because accurate information is required on future climate at the stand scale, and we need to understand the resilience of tree species and the long-term impact of recommended management interactions. Global efforts of creating a knowledge-based bio-economy call for an ample availability of forest products and more efficient forest management. Finally, a climate-smart forestry encompassing an efficient and versatile utilization of wood along a cascade of products and services including climate regulation will be required.

2217 - Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system

Lead Convener: A. Arneth (KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen - Germany)

Contributions are welcome that address the land-use change/climate change interplay from perspective of the natural and climate sciences, from the socio-economic and policy angle, or both. These include (i) possible pathways and the uncertainty in future land-use change scenarios; (ii) results from modelling experiments that analyse terrestrial carbon, water and nitrogen cycles in the LUC- climate system; (iii) analysis of the contribution of land-based mitigation to global climate policy, as well as (iv) competition and trade-offs between various mitigation option as well as synergies with other sustainability goals like global food security.

2218 - Land-based mitigation: agriculture, forests, bioenergy

Lead Convener: M. Herold (Wageningen University, Wageningen - The Netherlands)

The session is motivated by three key questions: (1) Where and how can agriculture and forest sectors contribute to climate change mitigation in a more integrated manner and supported by climate smart agriculture? (2) What are the synergies between mitigation and adaptation strategies those sectors could put in place to cope with climate change? (3) How can sustainable tree-based bioenergy be as a solution to development, adaptation and mitigation?

Key-note speakers from INRA, ICRAF, and Wageningen University and CIFOR will highlight new scientific findings addressing these questions; leading to a moderated discussion to feed into current UNFCCC negotiations on a broader land use agreement, and to improved options for implementation activities on the level of countries and landscapes.

2219 (a) - Politics and numbers: Political and technical challenges in reducing emissions from forests with REDD+

Co-conveners: C. Martius (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor - Indonesia) and M. Deheza (CDC Climat Recherche, Paris - France)

REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus enhancing forest carbon stocks) is being discussed,tested and refined since 2007 as an innovative approach to forest conservation for climate mitigation. Through REDD+, forest users would receive financial incentives to conserve, restore and sustainably manage forests. The REDD+ policy mechanism has matured and is expected to be included in the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement for the post-2020 period.
In this session, we will discuss the political arrangements, knowledge and technical, financial and institutional tools that will be needed to make REDD+ an efficient, effective and equitable mechanism that also provides co-benefits.

2219 (b) - Politics and numbers: Political and technical challenges in reducing emissions from forests with REDD+

Co-conveners: C. Martius (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Bogor - Indonesia) and M. Deheza (CDC Climat Recherche, Paris - France)

REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus enhancing forest carbon stocks) is being discussed,tested and refined since 2007 as an innovative approach to forest conservation for climate mitigation. Through REDD+, forest users would receive financial incentives to conserve, restore and sustainably manage forests. The REDD+ policy mechanism has matured and is expected to be included in the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement for the post-2020 period.
In this session, we will discuss the political arrangements, knowledge and technical, financial and institutional tools that will be needed to make REDD+ an efficient, effective and equitable mechanism that also provides co-benefits.

2220 - Landscape level adaptation and mitigation: integrating science, policy and practice

Lead Conveners: J. Förster (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Leipzig - Germany) I. Nhantumbo (International Institute for Environment and Development, Natural resources group, Edinburgh - UK)

Climate change impacts occur from local to global scale, requiring multi-scale, transdisciplinary, and cross-sectoral approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation. This session highlights
1) how a focus on ecosystem services at landscape level provides opportunities for nature-based solutions to climate change, and
2) policy issues arising when implementing nature-based solutions involving multiple actors and institutions.
Based on case studies around the world, research on the role of ecosystem services in disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and mitigation (REDD+) is presented. Opportunities and challenges related to implementing nature-based solutions to climate change are explored. Managing ecosystem services at landscape level can be a means for developing integrative approaches, combining climate change mitigation and adaptation, involving multiple actors and institutions from households to public and private sectors. This is a joint session of the Ecosystem Service Partnership (ESP) and the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED).

2222 - Semi-Arid Regions Adaptation

Lead Convener: P. Mudliar (iihs, Bangalore - India)

Semi-arid regions (SARs) are widely recognised as climate change hotspots. These areas have an intrinsically high sensitivity to climate coupled with high vulnerability driven by local and higher level (national/transnational) political-economic factors. Climate change will almost certainly exacerbate existing sensitivities and vulnerabilities, and possibly trigger social-ecological tipping points / thresholds in the next several decades. This session will bring together perspectives on climate-resilient development from multiple scales – local to national to regional – with a focus on identifying: (1) the key sensitivities and vulnerabilities to climate change in SARs; (2) how different actors conceive of human development in the context of climate change; (3) what tensions and similarities exist between the different actors’ framings, at local, national and supra-national scales; (4) how this diversity of framings has undermined or enriched adaptation strategies and practice in SARs; (5) what has been tried in terms of building climate resilience – what has worked and not worked, and why; (6) how future climate change will affect barriers and enablers of human development in SARs; and (7) whether we need to rethink human development in SARs in light of climate change.

2223 - Modeling Our Agricultural Future

Lead Convener: A. Ruane (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Climate Impacts Group, New York - USA)

This session examines the current state of agricultural modeling and its application to climate change challenges. Skillful models enable stakeholders and decision-makers to identify, test, and prioritize policies and adaptations to build a more resilient future. In particular, we will examine the benefits of multi-disciplinary, multi-model, multi-scale assessments that allow risk management in a complex sector with local and international implications. The session will highlight work done as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) and related communities, including latest efforts on linking climate, crop, livestock, and economics models for more robust integrated assessment of climate change impacts; the development of representative agricultural pathways to capture agricultural sector development that will also occur as the climate changes; and results from intercomparisons of models on the field and global scales.

2225 - Climate Smart Agriculture: Propaganda or Paradigm Shift?

Lead Convener: T. Long (Wageningen UR, MST, Wageningen, Gelderland - Netherlands)

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a high profile concept, rapidly emerging as a key global framework to address the diverse challenges agriculture faces due to climate change. CSA involves alterations to production systems and value chains that simultaneously improve food security and agricultural productivity, build adaptive capacity and resilience, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions where possible. Efforts are underway at unprecedented scales to implement CSA. This session will seek to consider and identify the grand challenges that CSA involves and actions to be undertaken, whilst advancing knowledge and understanding of the CSA framework.

2226 - Health and climate change : the need for a diversity of approaches

Lead Conveners: P. Saiag (University Versailles SQY, faculté de médecine, Boulogne-Billancourt - France); S. Morand (CNRS-CIRAD, Environment and Society, Vientiane - France)

This session illustrates different approaches dealing with the complex issue of climate change and health where approaches are diverse and require interdisciplinary teams. For example, the complex links between climate and infectious diseases may caution the methods and then the results of several climate-based models on infectious diseases spread. Particularly, land cover changes and biodiversity changes are strongly dependant of climate change but also impact the environmental human health. New modelling approaches are then strongly needed. They should incorporate the complex dynamics between climate, ecosystems and health. Another example deals with solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and skin cancers and how they are affected by climate change. UVR is recognized as the major triggering factor for skin cancers, premature aging and several eye and skin aging disorders. Skin cancers are very frequent in fair-skinned individuals worldwide, with rising incidences of melanoma, the most devastating one. On the other hand, adequate UVR exposure is necessary for maintaining adequate serum levels of vitamin D, which prevent diseases such as rickets and osteoporosis. Understanding these complex interactions is required for a better prevention policy.

2228 - Removing Barriers to Climate Change Mitigation at City Level

Lead Convener: K. Rashidi Ghadi (ETH Zurich, Zurich - Switzerland)

Cities play a critical role to battling the climate change as they represent more than 50% of world population, comprise 80% of GDP worldwide and also, based on recent estimates, they will be responsible for up to 70% of global emissions. However, despite the obvious relevance in tackling the mitigation efforts, cities are not fully involved in climate change dialogues. This can be linked to the fact that their importance is not entirely understood among the policy makers and also, the scope and level of involvement is not clear. Moreover, those cities (local governments) that have already placed mitigation programs in their agenda complain about the various problems that they have experienced in this journey. These barriers can emerge from a number of different factors such as lack of a strong institutional framework to enforce the implementation of policies or insufficient financial resources for investments in infrastructures or a blend of both.

Building on these concerns, this session intends to open a debate platform for the issue of citywide mitigation efforts, pointing out the prevailing challenges and discussing the ways of removing them.

2230 - Transport and climate change: mitigation and adaptation measures for transport infrastructures

Lead Convener: P. Potemski (IFSTTAR, Direction for European and International Affairs, Marne la vallée - France)

Climate change has an impact on crucial economic sectors and transport is one of them. Transport infrastructures in particular need a great deal of adaptation in order to face the various challenges posed by climate change: destruction, corrosion, degeneration, accelerated erosion, need for resilience, need for flexibility, cost-efficient long-term planning and scenario building etc. Climate change impacts on transport infrastructures vary from one area to the other and each country/regions has developed relevant adaptations measures or scenarios given their specific constraints. On the other hand, transport is also one of the sectors most contributing to climate change because it is responsible for 1/3 of GHS emissions. Mitigation actions and specifically GHS emissions reduction are the most foreseen issues and widely implemented. A focus on mitigation measures of transport infrastructures allow to explore interesting approach in terms of GHG emissions calculation and reduction during the life cycle of transport infrastructures (life cycle assessment). In this context, cooperation between countries facing same type of problems as well as best practices sharing is a valuable experience for policy makers and stakeholders to learn from each other.

2233 - Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: International and Urban approaches

Lead Conveners: M. Leitner (Environment Agency Austria, Environmental impact assessment and climate change, Vienna, Austria) ; F. Musco (IUAV - Italy)

The policy and practice link between CCA and DRR is vital as both communities focus on society-risk dynamics. However, each field does so through different actors and institutions, and with different time horizons, research methodologies, policy frameworks and patterns in mind (Schipper and Pelling 2006). These differences can lead to suboptimal strategies and duplicated efforts. As climate change is likely to make extreme events more frequent and intense, it becomes paramount to mainstream CCA and DRR into both development practice and planning at the sub-national, national and international levels (IPCC 2014).

2234 - Building Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes: Sustainable Solutions Grounded in Socio- Cultural Context

Lead Convener: A. Nolin (Oregon State University, College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Corvallis - USA)

Increasingly, extremes in weather and climate threaten people’s lives and livelihoods around the world, from mountains to coasts and from rural to urban communities. Sustainable solutions require anticipatory capacity. We can prepare for future extremes by exploring and evaluating a range of adaptive strategies. This session will focus on resilience-building solutions that are sensitive to geophysical, biophysical, and socio-cultural contexts. Examples include ecosystem-based approaches, engineering-based approaches (and hybrids of the two) as well as approaches incorporating traditional ecological knowledge. Regardless of complexity, origin, and scale, resilience-building solutions need to be grounded and aligned with socio-cultural norms while based in science.

2235 - Reinforcing Resilience

Lead Convener: C. Pritchard (The University of Edinburgh, School of Engineering, Edinburgh - UK)

Resilience requires building some level of redundancy into communities and their operation, such that partial failure does not lead to collapse, and so that favourable changes may be harnessed rapidly and effectively. In turn this requires equity (social and economic), and the development of a range of adaptation options, drawing on diverse sources of knowledge.
Through its programme of “Climate-Smart Villages”, CCAFS is developing strategies that increase agricultural productivity sustainably, using targeted agricultural technologies and climate information services. Community management of water resources, nutrients, agricultural residues, livestock and energy supply and demand, enables a flexible response to unpredictable weather and growing conditions. A further programme “Tracking Adaptation, Measuring Development” (TAMD), is operated by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) in Rwanda, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Nepal.
Information and communication technologies have become accessible even to the poorest in many countries, and have the potential to provide access to adaptation options, livelihood strategies and opportunities; to the extent that communities, armed with early warnings of climate-related incidents, may begin to embrace change rather than resisting it.

2238 - Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Science in Collaboration for Our Common Future

Lead Convener: N. Beriot (MEDDE, DGEC/SCEE/ONERC, 92055 La Defense - France)

Throughout the world, Indigenous cultures exist, which have been alive for thousands of years. These societies use their wealth of knowledge, accumulated for many generations, practicing and adapting in response to climate change and its impacts as well as to other changes in the environment. Their strategies of adaptation include social, economic and technical dimensions.
This session is designed to appreciate, promote, document, share and improve Indigenous knowledge used in the mitigation and adaptation of climate change and ecological resource use management.

2239 - Co-production of knowledge : How to interact to produce climate adaptation research, between scientific communities and stakeholders, at local or international, also between North and South countries?

Lead Convener: M. Imbard (Ministère de l'écologie, du developpement durable et de l'énergie, Direction de la recherche et l'Innovation, La Défense - France)

How to interact to produce climate adaptation research, between scientific communities and stakeholders, at local or international, also between North and South countries?
The co-production, in particular in the adaptation research facing to the climate change, is presented as a key concept guiding research, policies, economics issues and social practices at regional or national levels until the major international initiatives.The coproduction process is addressed to different stakeholders (local inhabitants, economic sectors, policy-makers) and to scientists (social and natural, North-South and South-South cooperation in different sciences) and integrates different methodologies involving all actors and their knowledge.
The session welcomes theoretical and empirical contributions that illustrate the integration and hybridization of different forms of expertise (legal, scientific, local), but also how they can clash. The presentations could be based on local and regional case studies with relevance for climate change, examples of the gaps and difficulties for leading adaptation researches and also the use of good practices

2240 - Perceptions of climate change

Lead Convener: S. Pahl (Plymouth University, Psychology, Plymouth - UK )

Climate change impacts are wide-ranging, and climate change requires urgent mitigation and adaptation efforts. Despite the scientific consensus a lack of action has been observed. Understanding people’s perceptions of climate change plays an important role in encouraging debate and action. The present session offers insights into international and regional variations in climate change perceptions as well as the effects of culture and sociodemographic variables. The development of climate change perceptions over time will also be considered. Other work represented in our session will investigate how weather patterns and media reporting are associated with climate change perceptions. Research from different approaches will be represented, including small-scale experimental, qualitative and large-scale survey methodology as well as diverse theoretical perspectives, addressing risk perception, communication and mental models. Some of the contributions will explore the link between perceptions and mitigation actions. The final discussion summarises the current state of the field of climate change risk perception and offers an integration of what we have learned in recent research. Implications for policy, communication and interventions will be drawn out.

2241 - New representations and new frames for the climate change debate

Lead Conveners: S. Treyer (NSS - Nature Sciences Sociétés - Editorial Board, Nss, Paris - France); S. Jasanoff (Harvard Kennedy School, Pforzheimer professor of science and technology studies, Cambridge - USA)

Global negotiations on climate change seem to progress only very slowly, while climate scientists insist on the emergency to take action, and while local collective initiatives for climate adaptation and mitigation seem to flourish. In order to better account for this gap between discourses, existing initiatives, and capacities to coordinate at different scales of action, and in order to identify innovative ways to debate and progress on the climate problem, a diversity of social and human science disciplines are working with their specific approaches to reframe the climate debate. Renewing the framing and the representations of the problem and of its solutions can be a major step to also change the way our societies face climate change.

2243 - Multi scale adaptation and responses in vulnerable coastal sectors under climate change risks

Lead Convener: A. Sánchez-Arcilla (Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC), Maritime Engineering Lab. (LIM/UPC), Barcelona - Spain)

The reduction of greenhouse emissions and the resulting level of global warming remain uncertain. The thermal inertia of sea water commits us to a continued increase of mean sea level affecting coastal ecosystems and development, with demonstrated changes at the ecosystem level. To face this challenge we require robust monitoring and adaptation pathways that consider plausible high-end physical and socio-economic projections.

The socio-economic component can be illustrated by low-lying coastal mega-cities, already stressed by rapid population growth that will make them increasing vulnerable and where proactive adaptation is becoming a fundamental response.

From a natural perspective we shall address coastal upwelling ecosystems. Human pressure on these productive ecosystems is increasing, requiring new scientific approaches. This can be achieved with the use of bio-indicators that show biological cause and effect across meaningful spatial and temporal scales. To provide quantitative assessments we shall also discuss the modelling tools required to project impacts, the approaches to build resilience and the efficiency of novel or “green” approaches to coastal sustainability.

2244 - Climate Change Biodiversity and Human Well-Being : illustration from forests and agro-forests systems

Lead Convener: F. Lefevre (INRA, Ecology of the Mediterranean Forests, URFM, Avignon - France)

Considering the global frame of social-ecological systems, biodiversity degradation in terms of composition, functions or both, impacts the ecosystem services. The biodiversity structure and functions result from the complex interplay of ecological and socio-economic processes that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. In order to develop mitigation and adaptive strategies, there is a crucial need to anticipate changes in biodiversity related to climate change. The session will address two challenges in this regard, illustrated on agro-forest systems from different continents. The first challenge is to detect early signals of biodiversity degradation and vulnerability. The second challenge is to assess the interactive impacts of climate change and biodiversity management on ecosystem services. To face these challenges, multiple-scale, interdisciplinary and process-based approaches start to be developed.

3321 (a) - Health Responses

Lead Convener: D. Campbell-Lendrum (World Health Organization, Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, Geneva - Switzerland)

This session will cover the latest evidence on the magnitude and distribution of health risks from global climate change, from direct impacts of heat and extreme weather, to changes in ecological systems affecting infectious disease, to those mediated by socioeconomic conditions, such as malnutrition, population displacement and conflict. It will present recent progress in adaptation to climate change, including evidence-based guidance, capacity development, decision-support tools and resource mobilization. The limits to health adaptation, particularly under high end climate scenarios, include human physiological limits, physical limits imposed by risks such as sea-level rise, to socioeconomic constraints on health adaptation, and including weaknesses in health systems. In addition, well-designed mitigation policies have the potential to bring very large health benefits, including through reductions in the over 7 million annual deaths from household and outdoor air pollution. The emerging evidence on the potential for health gains in countries at different levels of development, from improvements in the main carbon emitting sectors will be discussed.

3322 (a) - Representation of technological dynamics and societal transformation

Lead Conveners: N. Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg - Austria); JC. Hourcade (International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris - France)

This session will discuss a) the interplays between energy consumption patterns, urban dynamics and land-use patterns, b) how to interconnect models of technological change with macroeconomic and sectorial models c) how to better interconnect models projecting development pathways and models of the earth systems.

3322 (b) - Development of pathways: their mix of endogenous and exogenous uncertainties and their future under a changing climate

Lead Conveners: N. Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg - Austria); JC. Hourcade (International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris - France)

This session will focus on (a) the future perspectives of economic globalization, (b) climate change damages and economic growth and (c) the equity dimension of both the economic globalization process and representing growth pathways with disequilibria, starting with the conventional steady-state.

3327 - Adapting to Arctic Climate Change

Lead Convener: K. Latola (University of Arctic, Oulu, Finland)

This session will focus on the detection and attribution of Arctic climate change and the physical processes within, including the water cycle, extreme events, impacts and perception, as well as future projections. Secondly the impacts of climate change to human societies, the adaptation to Arctic climate change and the consequences and challenges of the climate change for the local and indigenous communities will be discussed. The session will try to find solutions to the question on how an open, productive and respectful dialogue between policymakers, business and industry leaders, local and indigenous communities and scientists can be established for increasing the mutual understanding and for identifying the new ways of working for ensuring the economic and societal benefits.

3330 (a) - Facing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

Lead Conveners: S. Janicot (IRD, Paris - France); A. Amani (UNESCO, Hydrololgic international programme, Nairobi - Kenya)

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most significant climate hotspot of our planet, both in terms of observations throughout the end of the XXth century and in terms of projections for the XXIst century. Global warming and expected climate variability enhancement are likely to worsen the prevailing water scarcity in this region, affecting significantly food security, biodiversity, human health and livelihood. Climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge in a region where living conditions and environment are already strongly affected by land-use changes and demographic pressure. Effective adaptation to climate change will be fundamental in limiting the risks for human activities and livelihood and in achieving development goals. The aim of this session is to review the state of knowledge on observed changes and foreseen perspectives, related to climate, environment and socio-economy, in this highly vulnerable region. It will cover (i) observed climate changes and related impacts, (ii) future climate change and (iii) impacts scenarios and adaptation options in a warmer climate.

3331 - Forest landscape management to create resilience in the face of climate change in West and Central Africa

Lead Convener: DJ. Sonwa DJ. d.sonwa@cgiar.org (1)
(1) (CIFOR - Center for International Forestry Research, Forest and Environment Program, Yaounde - Cameroon)

Sub Saharan Africa is facing serious challenges related to climate change. Climate change is having a dramatic effect on the diversity of ecosystems and rural communities present in this highly vulnerable part of the world. While in West Africa, extreme drought is the main driver of vulnerability, in the Congo Basin the humid tropic context is characterized by the gradual changing and variability of some climatic factors such as temperature and rain fall. Several ambitious initiatives had been adopted to face climate change. In 2007, the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel Initiative was adopted and has begun to bring together different stakeholders to restore and create ecosystems that place environmental and human well-being at the heart of its goals. Since 2008, adaptation of forest landscapes has gradually become part of the agenda of CIFOR and other COMIFAC partners. The current session is calling for scientific communications (oral and poster) on adaptation to climate change in West and Central African forest landscapes. Communications on Ecosystem Base Adaptation (EBA) will be particularly welcome as well as those that address synergy between adaptation and mitigation.

4415 (a) - Urban policies for Accessibility, Mobility and Informal settlements in the Global South to cope with Climate Change: Emerging Issues, Innovations and Opportunities

Lead Convener: L. Tomasoni (CODATU, Lyon - France)

The effects of urbanization and climate change are converging in dangerous ways. Cities are major contributors to climate change: although they cover less than 2% of the earth’s surface, cities produce more than 60% of all carbon dioxide and significant amounts of other greenhouse gas emissions. Transportation holds a significant part of responsibility since it is responsible for 15% of global emissions.

4418 (a) - Collective Action and Transformative Solutions

Lead Conveners: A. Coudrain (Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), Research unit espace-dev, Montpellier - France); S. Serrao-Neumann (Urban Research Program, Griffith University, Cooperative research centre for water sensitive cities, Brisbane - Australia)

Information for decision-making - How to engage in future thinking or plan for the long term

This session brings together research outputs for increased awareness and resilience to climate change threats and impacts. Understanding and responding to global climate change requires the integration of a plethora of information with the added urgency of needing rapid and transformative individual and institutionally-based responses. Worldwide contributions comprised in this session include the production and synthesis of multi-disciplinary climate-related information that enables transformative pathways and that support decision-making and proactive action at different scales: global-international, national, regional, institutional and individual. Examples are related to, inter alias, integration and collaboration between countries, participatory vulnerability assessments, community-based warning systems, people´s perceptions and attitudes towards potential climate change impacts, education and training processes, processes for synthesizing scientific information, science-policy interface, and cognitive barriers to understanding climate change. The global scope and increasing immediacy of climate change impacts makes topics covered by this session particularly relevant to guide local and international decisions and support proactive adaptation strategies.

4413 (a) - Technology, transformations and capabilities in developing countries

Lead Convener: H. De Coninck (Radboud University, Faculty of Science, Nijmegen - Netherlands)

This session, jointly with session 4413b, explores how capacity building, innovation systems and environmental policy can enable and contribute to inclusive, green and sustainable energy transitions. Much of the theoretical and empirical research on this topic has not made its way to the world of implementation. In this session, the findings from research will be applied to international institutions currently under development, such as several UNFCCC institutions and the SE4All initiative. The session will provide research-based, practical and productive policy insights to encourage green technology transitions, with a focus on developing countries.