Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France



Day 3: Responding to Climate Change Challenges:

This day addresses mitigation and adaptation options, highlighting scientific and technological breakthroughs and discussing barriers, trade-offs, co-benefits, risks and feedbacks. It explores local and regional responses, and discusses pathways for integration across sectors and stakeholders, emphasizing the need for bottom-up approaches that will be explored through the examples of local and regional case studies.

Information about the time and location (UNESCO, UPMC) of the parallel sessions  will be available soon.

2224 - Agrarian and pastoral societies: adaptive strategies and innovations

Lead Conveners: Y. Thomas (CNRS, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, UMR 5175 and GDR Mosaïque, Interactions ecology and society, Montpellier - France); C. Togtokh (Institute for Sustainable Development, National University of Mongolia, ULaanbaatar - Mongolia); A. Thomas (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), LERNA , Toulouse School of Economics, Toulouse - France)

Agrarian and pastoral societies living in vulnerable areas face major challenges due to climate and global changes. Furthermore, ensuring food security for a rapidly growing population in the face of climate change requires alternative pathways. Innovations building on local and scientific knowledge require exploring the following related points: 1) Understanding of the adaptive capacity of local and regional social ecological systems based on scientific as well as local ethnecological knowledge systems and socio-cultural organisation. 2) Financial and/or innovative social-ecological processes which may enhance new technological, economic or commercial solutions. 3) Modeling approaches in order to build scenarios of changes (and adaptation to these changes) within the context of climate change that consider vulnerable factors in agriculture such as ground water availability. 4) Adapted policies to changing socio-ecological conditions of vulnerable societies

This session will foster the importance of these four related approaches through presentation of a set of case studies that address jointly or through recommendations, these four aspects.

2232 - The Copernicus Climate Change Service : an European answer to Climate Change Challenges

Lead Convener: V. Pircher (Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy, Department for Research, La Défense cedex - France)

Copernicus is a large European program on Earth monitoring, coordinated and managed by the European Commission. Copernicus is developping services related to environmental and security issues. The services address six thematic areas: land, marine, atmosphere, climate change, emergency management and security. After an introduction by the European Commission "Europe's Eyes on Climate Change", the oral presentations of the parallel session will focus on the Copernicus Climate Change Service European initiative, through a pannel discussion. Some posters on the thematic "Forecasting and adaptation" will also be presented.

2236 - Scenarios, public deliberation and decisions

Lead Conveners: R. Lempert (RAND Corporation, Frederick s. pardee center for longer range global policy and the future human condition, Santa Monica, USA); K. Fløttum (University of Bergen, Department of foreign languages, Bergen - Norway).

Scenarios can prove a powerful means of decision support, helping decision makers to recognize more fully the climate challenges we face and explore more expansively potential solutions. Recent years have seen significant advances in both scenario practice and scenario methods. This session will explore how scenarios have affected change and how new methods are making scenarios even more effective. This session invites talks describing and evaluating how scenarios have been used for policy making, how new quantitative methods can facilitate the development and use of scenarios for decision support, how evaluating the narrative structure of scenario storylines can improve their impact, and how serious scenarios games can engage stakeholders in the evaluation of policy outcomes. This multidisciplinary session invites contributions that address questions such as how can scenarios best promote transformational policies? How are scenarios best represented, by language and other forms of representation? How can scenarios be evaluated? We seek contributions from different disciplines, which may lead to interesting discussions of cross-disciplinary research and indicate links between scenarios, public deliberation and decisions.

2237 (a) - Planetary Economics (1): Costs of Inaction and Benefits of Policy Action

Lead Conveners: S. Agrawala (OECD, Paris - France); F. Bosello (University of Milan, FEEM, and CMCC, Dep. of economics, Milan - Italy)

This parallel session will focus on the costs of inaction of climate change as well as policy options to address the climate problem, considering both mitigation and adaptation policies.

3301 - Climate Intervention: Evaluating its Risks, Benefits, and Potential

Lead Convener: A. Robock (Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick - USA)

Sharp reductions in greenhouse gas emissions must be the primary approach to limiting climate change. But approaches directed at offsetting and even reversing the effects and impacts of higher greenhouse gas concentrations, collectively known as geoengineering or climate intervention (CI), are also being studied. Solar radiation management has the potential for a more immediate climatic influence, but raises complex questions of science, governance and ethics. To explore whether approaches such as injection of stratospheric aerosols, marine cloud brightening, and cirrus cloud thinning may, through research and evaluation, become plausible policy options, this session invites presentations on the comparative climatic, agricultural, ecological, societal, and other risks and on the governance implications under future emissions scenarios, both with and without CI.esentations relating to UK, Germany, US, and some major emerging economies.

3302 - Key Energy Technologies for Low Carbon Pathways

Lead Convener: E. Kriegler E. kriegler@pik-potsdam.de (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam - Germany)

The session will review key non-carbon technologies with a focus on the full portfolio of renewable energy technologies and nuclear energy and illustrate their possible integration into low-carbon pathways at national, regional or worldwide level through scenario studies based on technical and economic analyses. Introductory presentations on key technologies, their role for mitigating climate change, their current status and their future prospects will be followed by a panel that will discuss how historical, geopolitical, economic and other considerations impact national/regional low-carbon strategies today.

3303 - Decarbonizing Electricity/Electricity Transition

Lead Convener: E. Wilson (Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis - USA)

Future electricity systems must simultaneously mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to a changing climate. This will require fundamental transitions in global energy systems. Electricity use underpins industrial societies and supports economic development worldwide. Climate friendly energy systems will require new technologies policies, institutions, and markets. While the need to transform energy systems is global, electricity system transitions are shaped by national and regional contexts. This session explores electricity system transitions and trajectories across multiple (temporal, spatial, and social) dimensions. We include contributions that discuss the obstacles and opportunities embedded within electricity system transitions at the global and regional scales and challenges of integrating new technologies and decision making under uncertainty. Session papers address the variability of renewable sources of electricity, the challenges facing large developing countries like China, the grid integration of low carbon resources, advances in multi-scale energy modeling. This session at the conference will be followed by a one-day workshop/parallel session organized in four blocks with further opportunities for oral presentations and in-depth discussions.

3304 - Climate change, carbon budgets and energy sector regulation

Lead Convener: J. Hardy (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, Sustainable energy policy, London - UK)

Energy is the central to economic development, but is also the dominant sector for many countries’ mitigation strategies. The IPCC’s fifth assessment reports (AR5), in setting out carbon budgets associated with differing probabilities of meeting the 2°C temperature goal reiterated at the Lima UNFCCC conference, has established a clear and quantifiable framework against which to assess policies for delivering corresponding rates and timeframes of mitigation.

Much research has focused on government policies such as carbon pricing and feed-in tariffs for renewables, but it is increasingly clear that regulation of the energy sector also plays a crucial role. Moreover, since energy infrastructure is exceptionally long-lived, planning must also accommodate climate impacts, from rising sea levels to more extreme weather events.

This session will explore how energy sector regulation affects action on, and can respond to the risk of climate change, along with other strategic and sustainability concerns. It will combine analysis with summary of developments in key regions with presentations relating to UK, Germany, US, and some major emerging economies.

3305 - Energy efficiency as a core means to decarbonize demand

Lead Conveners: LG. Giraudet (Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (cired), Nogent sur Marne - France); S. Lechtenböhmer (Wuppertal Institut für Klima Umwelt Energie, Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures, Wuppertal - Germany)

Energy efficiency is seen as the most cost-effective option to mitigate climate change and is increasingly targeted by governments across the world. However, numerous barriers so far prevent full succes. Particularly for basic industries which are very material and energy intensive quite specific challenges do exist for significant efficiency improvements and deep decarbonisation of demand.

Therefore, successful policy portfolios need to take up novel energy efficiency related policy portfolios that are synergistically linked to climate policy and take into account specific technical potentials, socio-economic variables as well as international competition, particularly for the field of industry.

The PS will first discuss the broad political and economic issues on improving energy efficiency and the second particular challenges and specific strategies for basic industries. Discussion will be completed by a round table on how to link energy efficiency policy successfully to climate policy.

3306 - Transitioning from fossil fuels and avoiding lock-ins

Lead Conveners: L. Michael (Stockholm Environment Institute, Seattle - USA); N. Bauer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam - Germany)

Climate protection requires deep and timely transitions away from fossil fuels. Despite growing recognition that addressing climate will require reducing fossil fuel extraction, climate policies have focused largely on curtailing demand through low-carbon technologies rather than transitioning from supplying fossil fuels. Investment in fossil fuel supply infrastructure continues to increase, creating economic, financial, and socio-political lock-ins, hindering our ability to reach climate objectives. This session will discuss highlights from recent research on economic and political challenges and opportunities for keeping fossil fuel production and use within climate protection bounds. It integrates two policy paradigms. The “top-down” paradigm defines long-term climate protection targets and derives constraints on global fossil fuels emissions; emissions limits create energy transformation, reducing demand for fossil fuels and limiting supplies. The “bottom-up” paradigm considers how disincentives or restrictions on fossil fuel supplies energy infrastructure can avoid the lock-in of more carbon-intensive pathways. The session will bring research communities together and explore the possible synergies. The conveners invite policy makers and researchers to join the session and contribute to the discussion.

3307 - Negative emissions for climate change stabilization & the role of CO2 geological storage

Lead Conveners: S. Fuss (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin - Germany); I. Czernichowski-Lauriol (CO2GeoNet European Network of Excellence on CO2 geological storage - BRGM, French geological survey, Orléans - France)

Proposed portfolios of GHG mitigation activities require annual mitigation rates of 2-10% for pathways leading to lower levels of climate change by 2100. One set of mitigation activities which is extensively advocated is the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by human intervention – here called negative emissions. Particularly the production of sustainable bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) features strongly in climate stabilization scenarios aiming at keeping warming below 2°C in the IPCC’s AR5. BECCS combines assumed carbon-neutral bioenergy (i.e. the same amount of CO2 is stored by biomass feedstock growth as is released during combustion) with capture of the CO2 produced by biomass combustion and its subsequent storage in geological repositories. Other negative emission options include afforestation, direct air capture and increases in soil carbon storage. However, many environmental, technological, socio-economic and governance issues remain unresolved to date. This session addresses the negative emissions challenge and the role of geological storage and presents new work on both limits and opportunities.

3308 – Fiscal Reform

Lead Convener: T. Sterner, Univ. of Gothenburg, Dept of economics, Gothenburg - Sweden

The session covers various aspects of fiscal reform, from the large global perspective to national, provincial and household perspectives. The first talk will be on the challenges of linking ‘bottom-up’ climate policies on a global scale. While the approach is appealing, four obstacles are identified: different levels of ambition; competing domestic policy objectives; objections to financial transfers; and the difficulty of close regulatory coordination. Continuing the discussion of top-down vs. bottom up policies, the next presentation has a focus on China and how the provinces implement climate policies. One of the main concerns raised are the policy implications related to the need for more coordination between bottom-up and top-down policies. As China is one of the main actors in climate negotiations it is of vital interest how the country internally approaches climate change, especially since it has previously been recognized that the country’s climate governance can be improved regarding the coordination of national and provincial levels.

3309 - Costs and benefits of adaptation: Lessons from developed and developing countries

Lead Conveners: M. Mullan (OECD, Environment Directorate, Paris - France)

The use of economic analysis for identifying, prioritising and incorporating adaptation is a vital area for informing adaptation decisions:

  • The recent pledges to the Green Climate Fund (>$ 9 billion), while large, fall short of anticipated adaptation needs: these resources therefore need to be directed most effectively, to benefit the largest number of beneficiaries.

  • The spatial and sectoral coverage of the costs of benefits is improving and there are examples of economic decision making under uncertainty in both policy and project appraisal. There is thus an opportunity for a timely update of the scientific information, and to reflect on lessons learnt.

  • An emerging priority is to understand wider economic costs, the implications of national adaptation, and the importance on public finances, GDP, employment, investment, and so on. This calls for modelling approaches, such as macro-econometric models, that can capture these effects at a geographic scale relevant for decision-making.

This session will be multi-disciplinary and innovative, focusing on the Science-Policy-Practitioner interface across developed and developing countries. The scientific keynote presentations (40 minutes) will include contributions from the ECONADAPT and econCCadapt research projects, as well as the OECD. A key focus for the offered contributions will be to draw out advances in practical iterative climate risk management and decision making under uncertainty.

3310 - Climate finance at scale: emerging opportunities?

Lead Conveners: TE. Downing (Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford - UK; A. Atteridge (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm - Sweden)

Climate finance is essential to reducing climate risks, and is at the heart of the UNFCCC’s climate regime. While the question of how to mobilise funds is crucial, the equally important question of how to ensure their effective use has been given far less attention.

Engagement with the private sector goes beyond the expectation of finance for public funds or protection against expected losses and damages. Transformation of climate resilience requires leadership in a range of private sector forms of investment and sustainability.

Emerging examples of how research has informed improved access to climate finance address fundamental questions. How can research inform private sector investments in adaptation? What are the barriers limiting the scaling up of successful pilot interventions? How can adaptation plans of implementing entities be informed by research? What is the business proposition for private sector investment?

The session brings together leading experts with an interactive panel to identify progress in developing at-scale and effective finance.

3311 - Climate mitigation policies - learning, evaluating and comparing national experiences

Lead Convener: P. Mallaburn (Climate Policy Journal, Welwyn Garden City - UK)

Measures that we now call "climate mitigation policies" have been around for 40 years, but there are surprisingly few systematic studies on what we have learned from them: policy experience does not easily cross national boundaries. As we move into a new phase in the international process it is vital that we find ways of translating our experiences so that others can learn from them. This session will try to work out how we might do this.

3312 - Planning and assessing adaptation: Frameworks, methods and results

Lead Conveners: D. Sietz (Wageningen University, Wageningen - Netherlands); E. Adere (International Development Research Centre, Nairobi - Kenya)

Successful decision-making around how best to adapt socio-ecological systems to withstand climate variability and change requires relevant frameworks and robust methods. These are needed for assessing complex phenomena, such as risk and vulnerability, and for evaluating the effectiveness of adaptive strategies. Understanding the successes and failures around the planning and implementation of these adaptation strategies is increasingly important, both in research and practice, and for developing and developed countries alike. Are we as local communities, nations, humankind on the right road towards effective adaptation? Whereas the concepts of risk and vulnerability have progressed significantly in recent years, there is an urgent need to develop coherent frameworks, indicators and methodologies for identifying and testing appropriate adaptation strategies. Furthermore, there is still much to be learned in terms of how to best implement such strategies, and how to measure their impact thereafter. Findings will help to inform international climate negotiations with insights into how common adaptation objectives across countries can be used to inform a “Global Adaptation Goal” and into how local to national experience could help identify generic indicators to assess adaptation progress.

3313 - Coordinated Adaptation to Climate Change

Lead Convener: K. Alverson (Climate Change Adaptation, Freshwater and Terrestrial Ecosystems, Nairobi - Kenya)

Climate variability and change pose varied challenges to humanity and demand equally varied responses. Coordination of climate change adaptation measures requires the vertical integration of different levels of governance (global, regional, national, sub-national, local) alongside horizontal integration between different sectors of the economy and society. This session focuses on the pathways towards coordinated approaches for climate change adaptation across sectoral and administrative boundaries. Finally, the session will present recent advances in the scientific community’s efforts to assist in understanding and mapping climate change adaptation, analyzing current and future finance flows as well as monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation actions taken.

3316 - Towards solutions that transcend technology and markets: The role of choices and behaviour change

Co-convener: S. Pahl (Plymouth University, Psychology, Plymouth, Devon - UK); A.Pegels (German Development Institute, Sustainable economic and social development, Bonn - Germany); Y. Mulugetta (University College London, Science, Technology, Engineering&Pulbic Policy, London - UK)

Human choices and behaviour play a crucial role in climate change. “Human beings are the cause of the transformation, and only action by human beings can save the world from its worst impacts“ (US Secretary of State John Kerry, Sept 27, 2013).
This session explores how research on choices and behaviour can facilitate interdisciplinary, integrative responses to climate change. Talks will draw on social science theories and present novel data that contribute to three types of solutions: Better engagement with the public, interventions that change behaviour, and policy responses.
The explicit aim of our session is to go beyond technological and market solutions and focus on behaviour change solutions. A considerable though not exclusive focus of this session will be on energy efficiency and savings, offering solutions for the double challenge of climate change mitigation and development. The IEA estimates that 18 per cent of the global population lack access to electricity. At the same time, the energy sector accounted for over 70 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2011. Greenhouse gas emissions overall have grown more
between 2000 and 2010 than in the previous three decades. Addressing carbon emissions and reforming the energy system will be vital for limiting global warming but poses different challenges for industrialised and developing countries. While technological innovation and carbon prize mechanisms will play a major role in transitioning towards a low emissions economy, it is questionable whether this technological and market frame is sufficient to realise this transition. Human decisions, behaviours and broader lifestyles are key to achieving a meaningful, acceptable and inclusive transition. Only taking a “people-focused” perspective will provide a buffer against market failures such as risk, imperfect information, hidden costs, access to capital, and split incentives. Contributions will discuss the key factors that contribute to behaviour change by presenting the results of empirical studies (e.g., interventions) and whether specific behaviours can “spill” over to other domains. We will also consider whether a behaviour change approach is too narrow in the face of broader patterns of habits and ‘locked-in’ lifestyles.
This session will bring together social scientists including economists and psychologists, scientists, engineers and policy makers to explore the potential of behavioural, choice and lifestyle solutions to addressing climate change. The session finishes with our team working with three specialists in global environmental change. Michael Depledge (Professor of Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter, UK) will lead this discussion, drawing on his experience as advisor to the United Nations and the European Commission.
Together we will sketch a map illustrating how social science theories and data might be used to enhance our responses to climate change and foster sustainable lifestyles. Six speakers are planned with 10 minutes for each presentation, plus a poster session and a panel discussion at the end.

3317 - Mainstreaming low carbon consumption : challenges and opportunities

Lead Convener: G. Walker (Lancaster Environment Centre, Co-director of the demand center (dynamics of energy, mobility and demand), Lancaster - UK)

Many studies highlight the limits of purely technological fixes for achieving sustainability. Thus, shifts in consumption patterns and lifestyles associated with technological solutions are essential for achieving transitions towards low-carbon development pathways. Mobilizing different social scientific and methodological approaches can help us better understand the dynamics of consumption patterns and develop relevant policy measures.

Consumption patterns related, for example, to food, mobility and home living are shaped by material, social and cultural processes. They are also embedded in many mundane social practices and daily routines. Co-evolving social change is necessary, on a scale that extends beyond those people that are already committed, beyond individual attitudes and behaviours, to truly collective, societal and structural change.

The session will aim at improving understanding of the underlying drivers of consumption patterns and processes of social change. How do we understand the nature of much of the energy consumption that makes up the carbon burden of contemporary living? What are the challenges behind mainstreaming low carbon social change?

3318 - Sustainable strategies to mitigate climate and improve public health in developed and developing countries

Lead Convener: M. Pascal (Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Environmental Health Department, Saint Maurice - France)

Until now, air pollution and climate change have been treated largely separately, producing inconsistent, sometimes conflicting public policies. Bridging the scientific, technologic and political gaps between air pollution and climate mitigation would improve health, biodiversity and food security. Solutions are both technological and behavioral. They encompass major sectors of activities from urban planning to agriculture or transports, and cover the entire range from international regulation to initiatives at the city level, both from developed and developing countries. The session will address interdisciplinary, bottom-up, as well as local-scale to internationally coordinated efforts to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants simultaneously while improving the quality of life.

3320 - Food Systems and Food Security: Health and Environment

Lead Convener: J. Ingram (University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute, Oxford - UK)

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on global food systems. While there are regional exceptions, higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, and the occurrence of extreme weather events, are expected to reduce the quantity and quality of food harvested, affect storage and distribution systems, and food safety. This can have direct impacts on the risk of hunger in low and middle income countries, and on food security and the dietary composition of populations more generally, both of which may lead to detrimental health impacts, notably non-communicable diseases, such as stroke, heart disease, and cancer. Meanwhile, current food system practices of producing, processing, packaging, transporting, retailing and consuming food are undermining the natural resource base upon which food security depends. They contribute about a third of anthropogenic GHG emissions as well as contributing significantly to crossing ‘planetary boundaries’ more generally. A ‘business as usual’ approach to satisfying food requirements for current and future generations is not sustainable. Research and innovation to improve food systems is however hindered by not having common food system concepts and frameworks. Addressing this gap, this session explores the multiple interactions and feedbacks between food systems and climate change.

3321 (b) - Health Responses

Lead Convener: D. Campbell-Lendrum (World Health Organization, Public Health, Environmental and Social Determinants of Health, Geneva - Switzerland)

This session will cover the latest evidence on the magnitude and distribution of health risks from global climate change, from direct impacts of heat and extreme weather, to changes in ecological systems affecting infectious disease, to those mediated by socioeconomic conditions, such as malnutrition, population displacement and conflict. It will present recent progress in adaptation to climate change, including evidence-based guidance, capacity development, decision-support tools and resource mobilization. The limits to health adaptation, particularly under high end climate scenarios, include human physiological limits, physical limits imposed by risks such as sea-level rise, to socioeconomic constraints on health adaptation, and including weaknesses in health systems. In addition, well-designed mitigation policies have the potential to bring very large health benefits, including through reductions in the over 7 million annual deaths from household and outdoor air pollution. The emerging evidence on the potential for health gains in countries at different levels of development, from improvements in the main carbon emitting sectors will be discussed.

3323 - Governance and Justice

Lead Convener: C. Corendea (United Nations University Institute for Environmnet and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Environment, Migration, Social Vulnerability and Adaptation (EMSVA), Bonn - Germany)

This session will explore human rights, equity, climate justice and legal aspects of climate change and migration -from the local to the global - drawing on and using global level experiences to inform national and international frameworks.

The expected outputs of the session are as follows:

  • Practitioners perspectives on how rights and equity apply to local, national and international level

  • Increased understanding amongst participants of the relevance of rights / legal frameworks in relation to mitigation, adaptation or migration actions

  • How to use legal tools in climate change scenarios

3324 - Paradigms for Building Resilience from Cross-scale Integrated Risk Governance Perspectives

Lead Convener: E. Boyd (University of Reading / Stockholm Resilience Centre, Department of Geography and Environmental Science, Reading - UK)

Global climate change and fast developments of the global social-economic systems are driving an increasing trend of extreme events that undermines the very fabric of global sustainability and poses a threat to the resilience of local communities. There remain major challenges in connecting the global nature of these problems at multiple levels of decision making to the realities of everyday life. In this session, by comparing various paradigms of risk governance around the world, lessons and experience will be discussed on progresses in disaster risk reduction and the role of government in the midst of rapid economic development and social transition including changes in national laws and regulations, institutional structures and operational mechanisms in disaster risk management. These paradigms will also be contrasted with the perceived impacts of global climate change and peoples’ everyday weather world and the ways that global disasters brings about new and contested understanding of disaster risk governance across scales, and in ways that government and local stakeholders envisage long-term development solutions for and resilience of affected communities.

3325 (a) - Overcoming barriers to transitions: knowledge to action and the importance of communication

Lead Convener: J. Palutikof (Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland - Australia)

Over the last decades, a vast body of knowledge on climate change has accumulated through research. Despite this growth in knowledge, there is a lack of action. Many studies have been done: of vulnerability, of how to build resilience, and how to incorporate mitigation and define low carbon pathways. But these studies rarely transform into action. The barriers are many, including vested interests, fear of litigation and lack of innovative funding mechanisms.

3326 - The Mediterranean Basin in a warmer and drier world : challenges and opportunities

Lead Convener: J. Guiot (CNRS, Aix-Marseille University, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence - France)

The Mediterranean Basin will be confronted with a wide range of challenges induced by climatic change: extreme events, sea-level change, ocean acidification, and significant risks for food production, water availability, biodiversity and other sectors. This session aims to induce new interactions between disciplines in both the terrestrial and marine domain. It presents contributions on (1) detection and attribution of climate change impacts that have recently occurred in the region, (2) climatic changes projected for the next decades, (3) adaptation processes related to more sustainable agriculture, water use, land management, better use of terrestrial and marine resources, technological, and institutional innovations, (4) the role of stakeholders and community-based approaches in adaptation and mitigation processes, (5) impacts of warming and acidification of the Mediterranean Sea.

3328 - Climate Change Challenges, Adaptation Barriers and Responses

Lead Conveners: S. Shackleton (Rhodes University, Environmental Science, Grahamstown - South Africa); S. Facknath (University of Mauritius, Faculty of agriculture, Port Louis - Mauritius)

The consequences of climate change for Africans are potentially disastrous and pose a serious challenge to the growth, equity and sustainable development of the continent. Africa must adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change, and develop disaster risk reduction measures, while also considering mitigation options. This parallel session will serve as a platform for showcasing the efforts of African scientists in developing adaptation plans in key areas such as health, hazards, human well-being and environment, as well as consider the factors and processes that may impede or enable successful adaptation on the ground. The session will encourage discussions on the challenges and barriers to adaptation, how these might be overcome and successes built upon. Furthermore, the session will provide a forum for sharing of data and experiences, provoke scientific discussions that will contribute to the development of solutions to the climate-related challenges facing the African continent, and will also help feed into the deliberations and resolutions that will take place at UNFCCC’s COP 21.

3330 (b) - Facing climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

Lead Conveners: S. Janicot (IRD, Paris - France); A. Amani (UNESCO, Hydrololgic international programme, Nairobi - Kenya)

Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most significant climate hotspot of our planet, both in terms of observations throughout the end of the XXth century and in terms of projections for the XXIst century. Global warming and expected climate variability enhancement are likely to worsen the prevailing water scarcity in this region, affecting significantly food security, biodiversity, human health and livelihood. Climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge in a region where living conditions and environment are already strongly affected by land-use changes and demographic pressure. Effective adaptation to climate change will be fundamental in limiting the risks for human activities and livelihood and in achieving development goals. The aim of this session is to review the state of knowledge on observed changes and foreseen perspectives, related to climate, environment and socio-economy, in this highly vulnerable region. It will cover (i) observed climate changes and related impacts, (ii) future climate change and (iii) impacts scenarios and adaptation options in a warmer climate.

3332 - Asia on the Frontlines: Projected Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation

Lead Convener: R. Zomer (World Agroforestry Center, Center for Mountain Ecosystems Studies, Kunming, Yunnan - China)

Recent projections indicate climate change will have major impacts on ecosystems and ecosystem services across Asia, affecting 3 billion people in the near to medium-term future, particularly in the vast but fragile highland and mountainous regions, dryland areas, and vulnerable frontline coastal regions. Many of these impacts are already evident across these various regions, which support large urban areas, as well as populations of hundreds of millions of highly vulnerable and heavily natural resource dependent subsistence farmers, herders, fisherman, and other vulnerable and/or poor populations. Understanding the direction and magnitude of these impacts, is essential for adaptation planning, effective conservation efforts, and preparing responses for extreme events. This session seeks to highlight new research results from these highly vulnerable Asian regions, to highlight both recent improved understanding of projected climate change impacts and insights for effective, broad and informed approaches to adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Informed evidenced-based decision making and public policy for effective adaptation strategies, and disaster risk reduction are discussed in light of empirical evidence from the region.

3333 - China’s climate policies and low-carbon innovation

Lead Conveners: S. Geall (University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, Brighton - UK); F. Jotzo (Australian National University, Crawford School of Public Policy, Canberra - Australia)

China has pledged to peak its carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, and has a target for emissions intensity in place for 2020. Ambitious policies to constrain emissions growth are in place and more are in the pipeline, including a national emissions trading scheme, and significant changes in energy policies may be on the cards. Furthermore, the country has thrown state support behind low-carbon technologies including electric vehicles, solar energy and next-generation agricultural technologies as components of a transition, while President Xi Jinping has said that, 'the direction of China's science and technology development is “innovation, innovation and innovation”'.This session will delve into regional, national and international perspectives on China’s climate change, energy and innovation policies and their effects. How are the seven emissions trading pilot schemes performing? What is the outlook and likely design of a national Chinese emissions trading scheme? How do China’s innovation policies support or constrain low-carbon development? What about “under-the-radar” innovations and does innovation relate with political and sociological questions around a low-carbon transition?

3335 - Climate Change Mitigation in Latin America

Lead Convener: T. Kober (Energy reserach Centre on the Netherlands, Policy Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands)

Mitigating climate change is the global challenge of the 21st century, however, capabilities to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are distributed unevenly acrossworld regions, and regional particularities play a key role in international climate policy negotiations. The presentations we propose, mainly originate from the work undertaken in the European Union financed CLIMACAP (www.climacap.org) project and the US-AID / EPA financed LAMP project. Depending on submissions through the call for contributions additional presentations will be included.

3336 - Post-2030 decarbonisation pathways in Europe

Lead Convener: A. Tilche (European Commission, Brussels - Belgium)

The European Union (EU) has an ambitious green house gas emission reduction policy in vigour up until 2030 and it has drawn up a vision for a largely decarbonised future by 2050. This session addresses the role of science and innovation in supporting the design of cost-effective deep decarbonisation pathways in Europe and beyond.

3337 - Facing floods and climate challenges: designing governance arrangements and unlocking financing on the pathway to resilient cities

Lead Convener: J. Jadot (Centre Européen de Prévention du Risque Inondation, Orleans - France)

Extreme weather events require cities and coastal areas to accelerate being climate resilient to avoid huge socio-economic losses. Between 2000 and 2010, Europe has suffered more than 175 major floods, causing deaths, large economic losses and displacement of people. In the decades to come, climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of flood events. As urbanization in flood-prone areas still continues, flooding becomes one of the big challenges for future cities.

This session aims to deal with two important questions: (1) how to design and implement suitable governance arrangements for flood risk governance, and (2) how to unlock private investments (besides public funding) and how to raise the capacity to do so?

The STAR-FLOOD research project, contributing to the identification of suitable experiences of flood risk governance in 6 European countries at the scale of urban regions and at designing policies to better deal with these risks, and the Climate KIC funded CAFCA-project resulting in a methodology for unlocking financing and increasing the requesting capacities, will contribute to answer these questions. The session will also present the cases of 4 cities and propose a round table to explore the lessons we can learn from these examples.

3338 - European Collaborative Research and Innovation for Climate Action

Lead Convener: R. Swart (Alterra, ESS-CALM, Wageningen - Netherlands)

Climate knowledge is expanding but many gaps exist in the underlying science and tailoring the available information and knowledge to end-users beyond the policy domain and the public sector. Public investment in research and innovation is needed to step from the knowledge base to solutions that derive societal benefits. In that respect, the objective of the session is to discuss key European climate change research and innovation initiatives that are supporting this transformation, notably (a) the European Research and Innovation Roadmap for Climate Services; (b) the European Joint Programming Initiative Climate (JPI Climate); and (c) the Climate Knowledge and Innovation Community (Climate KIC). The session will combine three keynote presentations with a panel discussion that will focus on a) the role of users and providers in climate services, b) the possible role of future European research in supporting UNFCCC adaptation challenges, including an interactive discussion with the audience on how European research and innovation results can be better applied and how research programmes can be further strengthened to maximize its utility to the international climate negotiations.

3339 - Effective design and implementation of EU climate policy

Lead Conveners: S. Munaretto (Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University, Amsterdam - Netherlands); A. Kalfagianni (Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, Environmental policy analysis, Amsterdam - Netherlands)

Governing the transformation of the European Union to a low-carbon economy by mid-century is a huge challenge requiring a mix of policy instruments. This session presents findings of the EU funded CECILIA2050 project (Choosing Efficient Combinations of Policy Instruments for Low-carbon Development and Innovation to Achieve Europe’s 2050 Climate Targets). The session targets economic, financial, and political constraints and opportunities of the current EU climate policy instrument mix while fostering discussion about new, innovative policy proposals for more ambitious and transformative EU climate policy. The first contribution to the session examines the key benefits and challenges of instruments contained within three stylized (but detailed) policy ‘packages’. The second paper discusses where financing may come from, the barriers that act to prevent the required investment, and options to reduce these obstacles. The third paper addresses the fundamental issue of uncertainty by developing a stochastic model of the European energy sector featuring the most important uncertainty sources in this context, including economic growth and the cost of key technologies. Finally, the last paper addresses the crucial issue of political feasibility by applying the results of a multi-method approach to a systematic framework that integrates stakeholder preferences, power dynamics and institutions.

3340 - Conflict and Climate Change

Lead Convener: A. Robock (Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick - USA)

One of the great potential dangers of climate change is the possibility to produce conflict. Displacement of people from regions experiencing drought or flooding from sea level rise, for example, will put pressure on the regions to which they move. At the same time nuclear conflict has the potential to produce large climate change. Even if a nuclear war used much less than 1% of the current global nuclear arsenal, the smoke from fires started by attacks on cities and industrial areas would block out the Sun, making it cold, dark, and dry at Earth’s surface for decades, and also destroy stratospheric ozone, enhancing ultraviolet radiation at the surface. Studies looking at impacts of these climate changes on agriculture in China and the United States show reduced grain productivity by 20-40% for more than a decade. This session will address new results on these topics.

3341 - Gender and Climate Change: From Vulnerability to Mainstreaming in Adaptation and Mitigation

Climate change is now unequivocal. The adverse effects of climate change not only undermine human security suppressing enjoyment of their fundamental rights but also magnify existing inequalities, reinforcing the disparity between women and men in their vulnerability to and capability to cope with change. Climate change is not gender neutral. Women suffer climate impacts more than men- they are also integral to the solutions and their due participation might become highly critical in enhancing climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. The emerging issue of gender and climate change is quite new and there are things to learn, knowledge to share and ways to find for gender mainstreaming. This session is expected to provide significant insight on various aspects of gender dimensions associated to climate change impacts. Experience from different climate vulnerable areas is discussed and lesson learnt in line to adaptation and mitigation activities is shared. Gender mainstreaming has become integral not only in climate change policy formulation and implementation but also in country’s own development intervention as well; and thus the session on gender issues and climate change is believed to be a critical step in path of future gender inclusive sustainable development.

3342 - Developing Capacity through Low Carbon Initiatives, Climate Adaptation and Increased Resilience to Climate Impacts in the Asia-Pacific Region

Lead Convener: A. Stevenson (Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), APN Secretariat, Kobe, Japan)

The session addresses capacity building, identifies common gaps and formulates future pathways for effective capacity development to respond to climate change. As a network of 22 countries supporting regional research and capacity development, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) under its capacity building arm, CAPaBLE, has conducted 128 projects since 2003. CAPaBLE develops scientific capacity in Asia-Pacific to improve decision-making from grassroots to regional levels. The session will share outcomes of climate-related capacity building activities and initiatives to address capacity development, particularly scientific gaps and needs. APN places high emphasis on capacity development to scientifically capacitate early-career scientists, civil society, and decision-making and local communities. Specific emphasis in the session is placed on climate adaptation and low carbon initiatives. The session will have six speakers; five of whom will highlight specific activities at the project-based level. All speakers and participants will engage through active discussion and, time permitted, gaming sessions that will address capacity development gaps in the region under climate change.

3343 - Innovative technologies to mitigate climate change : priorities among countries

Lead Convener: F. Moisan (ADEME, Paris - France)

New energy technologies development will be needed to mitigate climate change. Governments are supporting R&D and Innovation done by companies and laboratories in order to accelerate the pace of development and market access for these technologies. These future “green” markets will induce new activities and new jobs.
Each country and each Government identify priorities among all candidate technologies and dedicate public funds to support a specific portfolio of innovations. At national level this prioritization is done through prospective evaluation processes such as technological road maps shared with companies. However large uncertainties remain on the concretization of these new markets.
The session “Innovative Technologies to Mitigate Climate Change : Priorities Among Countries” will be dedicated to exchange between deciders at Government level from different large countries on the priorities identified as the most promising ones for climate change mitigation but also for new business activities. The debate between panelists will give the opportunity to identify specific priorities due to national circumstances but also convergences among countries on some technologies allowing more confidence for companies involved in green innovation.

4402 (a) - Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: Global requirements

Lead Conveners: E. Kriegler (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam - Germany); G. Luderer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam - Germany)

This session reviews the most recent work on global mitigation pathways that limit warming to 2°C. It discusses the emission, energy transformation, and investment requirements of these low carbon pathways, and explores the implications for short term action. The session is accompanied by a companion session on national pledges and decarbonization pathways, and solutions to bridge the gap to 2°C mitigation pathways.

4404 - Climate finance: New sources, new instruments, more effects?

Lead Convener: A. Torvanger (CICERO, Oslo - Norway)

Long-term investments in climate-friendly and climate change resilient infrastructure are essential. Such climate finance is particularly in need in many developing countries due to limited economic resources and expected impacts from climate change. Direct government contributions can help, but a large share of the agreed 100 Bill. USD annually from 2020 for climate measures in developing countries can only realistically come from the private sector. This session explores ways to facilitate climate finance for developing countries.

4405 - On the macroeconomic opportunity of climate policy

Lead Conveners: S. Wolf (Global Climate Forum, Berlin - Germany); I. Alloisio I(ICCG FEEM, Venice - Italy)

So far, climate policy is mostly seen as causing a reduction in consumption and growth. However, it is possible to design mitigation and adaptation policy in a way that benefits macroeconomic conditions such as GDP growth, employment, public budgets balance, etc. This session explores how one can make climate policy an opportunity. It aims at answering the following questions: how can climate policy stimulate the necessary investments for a low carbon transformation of the economy (renewable energy supply, efficiency in buildings, transport & industry, IT, education, etc)? How can it anticipate future adaptation needs? How can one achieve a low carbon economy and at the same time ensure social and economic goals like employment and growth? And what are the instruments needed for analysing these questions?

4406 (a) - Climate change and Development: Alleviating poverty and achieving inclusive development within the constraints of a global carbon budget and other planetary boundaries

Lead Conveners: J. Reilly (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT Cambridge - USA); PR. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad - India)

Climate change and poverty alleviation constitute the two biggest challenges for humanity in the 21st century that cannot be addressed independently from one another. A reasonable framework for sustainable development that permits economic and human development within the boundaries of the life-support systems on Earth will need to take into account climate impacts, risks and adverse effects of mitigation technologies, as well as co-benefits of mitigation.

This session highlights progress made in developing strategies that contribute to meeting both climate and poverty alleviation objectives, thus reducing the risk of conflict between solutions to these inextricably linked challenges. It will be structured around three framing presentations that highlight i) the recent research on planetary boundaries and a global carbon budget, ii) the linkages between poverty and climate change, iii)Feasible mitigation options for developing countries . They will serve as input for a panel discussion with the audience and among panel members. The session will be closed by an outlook on policy options and a possible way forward integrating different objectives on development, poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation on national and international levels.

4407 - The Challenges and Opportunities of Multilevel Adaptation Governance

Lead Conveners: S. Karsson-Vinkhuyzen (Wageningen University, Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen - Netherlands) ; MA. Baudoin (Climate and Development initiative, geology, cape Town - South Africa)

Adaptation governance is being initiated at all governance levels, from local to global often with considerable linkages between them. This session explores the challenges of addressing such multilevel linkages in a way that supports a system of both effective and legitimate multilevel adaptation governance. Keynote speakers will address both the role of UNFCCC principles in integration of multilevel adaptation governance as well as explore pathways to integrate locally-developed adaptation initiatives with national and regional development plans and adaptation policies. Paper and poster presentations will include both themes on: 1) global/national adaptation governance; 2) bottom-up (local) approaches for adaptation and 3) the interplay between adaptation governance at different levels within developed and developing regions. Through the keynote speakers, the paper and poster presentations and a concluding panel discussion we will explore pathways to for effective and legitimate multilevel adaptation governance.

4408 - Risk and Insurance

In exchange for paying a certain premium, insurance allows to transfer the risk of facing an incertain loss. Insurance is available to cover any type of risk including climate risks. But climate is changing which will cause more uncertainty. Among climate risks, floods are of great concern in many areas of the world and economic losses due to floods have dramatically increased during the last decades. This increase has enhanced discussions about the role of insurance in addressing this kind of risk. Part of this session frames insurance in two ways: the question of affordability and the potential to use insurance as a lever for flood prevention and disaster damage mitigation. For more general climate-driven extreme events, the role of insurance as a complement to adaptation and mitigation policies as well as the role of transparency in the insurance sector is also presented. An attractive alternative to traditional insurance is represented by weather index insurance products which offers lower premiums and speeds up the payout process. The question of the resilience to climate change of this kind of products is addressed. A proposition to share risk across world regions via a market for state-dependent Arrow-Debreu securities is also presented. Finally, a first attempt to quantify the cost of climate change for an insurance company in a simplified portfolio is presented.

4409 (a) - Climate Governance: Driving Societal Transformations

Lead Convener: A. Jordan (Tyndall Centre, ENV, Norwich, UK)

When set against the latest scientific predictions, the current policy responses to climate change are perceived to be painfully inadequate, especially those centred on the international regime. In anticipation of the Paris conference in 2015, hopes are building that ‘new’ forms of governance will offer a transformative solution to the governance gaps in the regime. These new forms include national policies adopted by states, as well as transnational experiments that involve domestic actors in a large number of countries, and operate across public and private divides.

This session will showcase and critically evaluate the latest findings from several international projects that are actively examining examples of the ‘new’ climate governance - many so recent that they were not included in AR5. The first part examines the main contours and architectures of ‘new’ governance; the second identifies and explores likely new priorities for science and for policy after Paris 2015.

4410 - Citizens and governments as drivers of cultural and political change

Lead Conveners: N. Blanc (CNRS, LADYSS 7533, Paris - France) YC. Zarka (Center of Philosophy, Epistemology and Politics, Université Paris Descartes shs Sorbonne, Paris - France)

It is by mobilizing the collective actions of citizens in each state, as well as the ones representative of different cultures, that we shall find the path towards a balanced socio-ecological transition. This mobilization is shaped by frameworks and incentives which are framed by governments in their interplay with powerful actors in society, but also by grass-roots movements emerging from a country’s specific culture.

4411 - Can the Green Economy save the climate?

Lead Convener: S. Aykut (LISIS, Université paris-est, Marne-la-Vallée - France)

This parallel session focuses on the role of the concept of the green economy in global environmental governance, in order to gain a better understanding of its trajectory and its capacity – as well as of the policies it refers to –, to contribute to tackling anthropogenic climate change. More generally, the session aims at increasing reflexivity through a better understanding of the role of norms and frames in Earth System Governance. We welcome contributions on the origins of the concept and its specificity, the way the concept has been mobilized in climate governance and how it relates to the alleged recent paradigm shift in the climate negotiations, as well as case studies of national or subnational policies referring to the Green economy.

4413 (b) - Environmental policies to enable innovation and transformation

Lead Convener: H. De Coninck H(Radboud University, Faculty of Science, Nijmegen - Netherlands)

This session, jointly with sesion 4413a, explores how capacity building, innovation systems and environmental policy can enable and contribute to inclusive, green and sustainable energy transitions. Much of the theoretical and empirical research on this topic has not made its way to the world of implementation. In this session, the findings from research will be applied to international institutions currently under development, such as several UNFCCC institutions and the SE4All initiative. The session will provide research-based, practical and productive policy insights to encourage green technology transitions, with a focus on developing countries.

4414 - "Transformative solutions across scales: social learning, science, policy and dialogues"

Lead Convener: S. Nishioka (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Senior Research Advisor, Hayama, Kanagawa - Japan)

In the pathway towards the big transition to low carbon societies, many agendas rise up to solve friction to move out of the highly locked-in present social system, which require deep and serious dialogues among stakeholders. There are three different aspects: (i) grassroots social learning and knowledge co-production, particularly in a Southern developmental context, (ii) innovative science- and technology-based solutions for decarbonization; and (iii) establishment of a worldwide systematic multi-layered, science-policy dialogue to realise low-carbon societies. These different mechanisms encompass both policy and practice-oriented solutions, which operate in different scales and may be implemented in divergent ways according to socio-economic development contexts of different regions, in the transition to climate-resilient development. This session, based on past successful dialogues under these aspects, proposes to the UN to launch a campaign on “Decade for Accelerating Climate Dialogue for Action (DacDac)” to promote such dialogues.

4415 (b) - Transformative solutions for urban sustainability governance: Multi-level government and cross-sectoral collaboration for effective and efficient climate action

Lead Convener: A. Marques (ICLEI World Secretariat, Low-carbon cities, Bonn - Germany)

Transformative actions are emerging that may deepen resilience and trigger effective climate change adaptation and mitigation in urban settings. For effective sustainable urban governance, there requires participatory, inclusive action that engages non-state actors.

The session proposed will be focused on urban environments (cities) and their climate action transformations. Examples of successful transformative dynamics and solutions tested in and demonstrated by cities will be highlighted. The session includes new insights into community-based action research on climate change; guiding principles in governance at multiple scales for efficient urban transformations; the drivers of unsustainable development paths; collective action with involvement of diverse knowledge-and-power domains and multi-stakeholder engagement towards creating transformative pathways at the local level; and approaches to standardized, transparent emissions reporting.

4418 (b) - Collective Action and Transformative Solutions

Lead Conveners: A. Coudrain (Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), Research unit espace-dev, Montpellier - France); S. Serrao-Neumann (Urban Research Program, Griffith University, Cooperative research centre for water sensitive cities, Brisbane - Australia)

Information for decision making - Improve availability, access and use of information

Understanding and responding to global climate change requires the integration of a plethora of information over many disciplinary fields, with the added urgency of needing rapid and transformative individual and institutionally-based responses. This session brings together outcomes that support such transformative change at multiple scales.

Worldwide contributions are on the following topics: production and synthesis of multi-disciplinary climate-related information that enables transformative pathways; tools such as integrated spatial information systems that support individual, collective and organisational decision-making and proactive action; enablers for building the adaptive capacity of communities of practice and community-based organisations. Examples are related to a breadth of fields, including natural resources management, environmental health, marine and freshwater systems, agriculture, biodiversity conservation, risk management, island environments, human settlements, and climate justice.

The global scope and increasing immediacy of climate change impacts makes this session particularly relevant in guiding local and international decisions and support proactive adaptation strategies.

4420 (a) - How to price carbon for industry?

Lead Convener: K. Neuhoff (German Institute for Economic Research, DIW Berlin, Berlin - Germany)

The session will discuss the role of carbon prices to support a low-carbon transformation in industry. Starting from empirical evidence on impact we will explore the role of leakage protection measures and how they impact effectiveness of carbon pricing - and what new approaches might be possible post Paris.

4420 (b) - What role of carbon pricing in a post Paris world?

Lead Conveners: A. Creti (Université Paris Dauphine and Ecole Polytechnique, LeDa CGMP, Paris - France; M. Grubb (University College London, Institute of Sustainable Resources, London - United Kingdom)

This session will discuss the role of carbon pricing in the post Paris world, by focusing on the EU ETS, and comparing to it other carbon markets such as California. Market design issues, such as the mechanism of stability reserve, will be discussed. The question we will debate are as follows:

  • What is the role of global / national process for implementation of carbon prices?

  • Will emission trading mechanisms reflect longer-term targets in today’s carbon prices?

  • How the social cost of carbon will affect low-carbon investment?