Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Friday 10 July - 14:00-15:30 UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM II

4401 - Sustainable development goals and the new climate regime : synergies for change ?

Parallel Session

Chair(s): P. Jacquet (Global Development Network, New Delhi, India)

Lead Convener(s): P. Guillaumont (FERDI - Université d'Auvergne, Clermont Ferrand, France), S. Treyer (NSS - Nature Sciences Sociétés - Editorial Board, Paris, France)

Convener(s): N. Kanie, (Keio University, Tokyo, Japan), S. Mathy (PACTE, Grenoble, France)

14:00

Sustainable Development Goals, Science and Politics

C. Kőrösi, (Office of the President of the Republic of Hungary, Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract details
Sustainable Development Goals, Science and Politics

C. Kőrösi, (1)
(1) Office of the President of the Republic of Hungary, State secretary, director for environmental sustainability, Budapest, Hungary

Abstract content

Based on his experience as co-chair of the Open Working Group (OWG) on Sustainable development goals (SDG), Mr C. Kőrösi will be talking about the lessons for the SDGs learnt from the OWG negotiation process, especially focusing on science policy interface. This will include his personal reflection of the OWG process in terms of science and policy, and personal views on how science could contribute to the post-2015 development agenda and their implementation process.

14:15

Governance through Goals: Options and Opportunities for the SDGs

N. Kanie, (Keio University, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract details
Governance through Goals: Options and Opportunities for the SDGs

N. Kanie, (1)
(1) Keio University, Professor, graduate school of media and governance, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract content

Two unanticipated consequences in formulation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from the outcome of Rio+20 are of great importance for governance for sustainability: that the SDGs would link sustainable development to the continuation and strengthening of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in a single agenda at the centre of a post-2015 development framework; and that their negotiation would entrench “goal-setting” as a dominant strategy in global governance. This single, goal-oriented agenda, is not simply a continuation of unfinished elements of the MDGs, but it aspires to build from their central mission of poverty eradication and social inclusion a universal, integrated agenda that also responds to growing social and planetary complexity in the twenty-first century. While the very notion of negotiating a set of SDGs is remarkable in its own right, they mark an equally significant shift in global governance strategy: from norm promotion and rule-making to goal-setting.

14:25

Allocation of resources to LDCs for adaptation - A climate vulnerability index

P. Guillaumont (FERDI - Université d'Auvergne, Clermont Ferrand, France)

Abstract details
Allocation of resources to LDCs for adaptation - A climate vulnerability index

P. Guillaumont (1)
(1) FERDI - Université d'Auvergne, Clermont Ferrand, France

Abstract content

An amount of resources, still to be determined, will be made available for the adaptation to climate change in developing countries, in particular to Least Developed Countries. Since these countries are not responsible for the global impact of climate change, it seems equitable to allocate concessional resources mainly according to their vulnerability to climate change (beside their low level of income per capita). For doing that we suggest to use a physical index of vulnerability to climate change reflecting the likely shocks resulting from climate change and faced by each country independently of its will, what means an index not taking into account any policy factor of resilience. Such an index has been built on an exploratory basis at Ferdi with this aim in view. Complementarity and consistency with the  allocation of development assistance models using income per capita, structural economic vulnerability and governance indicators as criteria will be also underlined.

14:35

A poverty – adaptation –mitigation window within the Green Climate Fund

S. Mathy (PACTE, Grenoble, France), O. Blanchard (PACTE, Grenoble, France)

Abstract details
A poverty – adaptation –mitigation window within the Green Climate Fund

S. Mathy (1) ; O. Blanchard (1)
(1) PACTE, EDDEN, Grenoble, France

Abstract content

The stakes for poverty alleviation and the measures required to avoid unbridled climate change are inextricably linked: on the one hand, climate change may slow down and even reverse trends in poverty reduction; on the other hand trajectories consistent with a 2°C - temperature increase require poverty alleviation strategies to integrate the constraint of a low carbon development.

Existing climate funds have failed to target poverty alleviation as a high priority of adaptation strategies

It is important to distinguish adaptation actions that are purely aimed at adapting to impacts of climate change and would not otherwise be initiated, from broader adaptation needs and development-related actions to reduce climate change vulnerability, i.e. actions to reduce the adaptation gap. The existing project-based approach of the Adaptation Fund is more adequate to deal with the first category of adaptation actions, while it is likely that poorer regions and communities need to look more specifically to the adaptation deficit. How can a single financial instrument address both in an optimal manner? So far, all attempts to create aggregated vulnerability indicators relying on a single number have revealed unsatisfactory to determine where available funding should be used in priority, as these indicators lead to contradictory results and often depend on value judgments on which there is no consensus.

Allocation of climate funds focusing on development-related actions to reduce climate change vulnerability requires defining a set of indicators that reflect factors of poverty.

Existing climate funds and the CDM have failed to target poverty alleviation as a necessary component of a low carbon development

Existing climate funds and the CDM have mainly allocated resources to high-emitting developing countries, or to countries with a rapid growth in their GHG emissions.  To maximize the environmental efficiency, climate funds and financial mechanisms favour projects or actions that maximize the quantity of emission reductions. Such indicators are not adequate with poor countries with no mitigation potential relative to a historic reference because the development deficit leads to low initial emission levels.

To favour low carbon development opportunities in poor countries, other indicators than emission reductions relative to a historic reference scenario should be used.

Description of the poverty-adaptation-mitigation window (PAM-W)

To go beyond these obstacles in targeting poverty alleviation as an adaptation strategy and as a component of a low carbon development, we propose to complement the existing adaptation and mitigation windows of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) with a window focusing on synergies between poverty alleviation, adaptation and mitigation.

Actions funded within this window would either be sectoral programs or policies in order to be consistent with the GCF objective of paradigm shift. 

A series of macro indicators that reflect factors of poverty would be used for the selection of beneficiaries.

The aid mechanism would be based on national or regional benchmarks reflecting the per capita cost for providing a specific basic need (the cost of providing access to sanitation to one additional person, the cost of providing access to electricity to an additional person).

Part of the funds allocated would be transferred based on the actual implementation of the action. The allocation metric would be the actual net changes in the number of people gaining access to the concerned basic need. Countries would be free to develop their own strategy, and they would have to finance it initially, from domestic resources, existing development aid channels or international private capital.

Given the huge financing needs to address GCF objectives, available financial resources for the PAM-W would be limited and financial modalities within the PAM-W would have to limit windfall profits and to vary according to income category of countries. Additional conditions could reinforce the appropriation of actions by countries: co-financing for low income countries, private financing for upper –middle income countries.

14:45

SDGs as way to better mobilize funding for climate and for development ?

D. Vencatachellum (African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia)

Abstract details
SDGs as way to better mobilize funding for climate and for development ?

D. Vencatachellum (1)
(1) African Development Bank, Director, resource mobilization and external finance department, Tunis, Tunisia

Abstract content

Based both on his expertise in development economics and on his experience as an economist within a multilateral development bank (the African Development Bank), Dr D. Vencatachellum will present his analysis of how SDGs could help better mobilizing funding for climate and for development, and will also react to the proposals made by other presenters in the panel.

14:55

Raising the ambition: How the global climate agreement can affect the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals

N. Walmsley (HR Wallingford, Wallingford, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Raising the ambition: How the global climate agreement can affect the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals

N. Walmsley (1)
(1) HR Wallingford, Water Group, Wallingford, United Kingdom

Abstract content

N. Walmsley (HR Wallingford), A. Ansuategi (Metroeconomica), P. Greńo (Metroeconomica), V. Houlden (HR Wallingford), A. Markandya (Metroeconomica), L. Onofri (Metroeconomica), G. Tsarouchi (HR Wallingford) and H. Picot (CDKN)

 

In the coming year, key decisions will be made on several intergovernmental agendas, including climate change, disaster risk reduction, sustainable development and financing for development. The impacts of climate change resulting from varying levels of ambition over long-term horizons (e.g. to 2050 and beyond) are a current focus of much global research effort. However, little is known about the projected impacts of the climate deal on development in the shorter term.

 

This paper seeks to fill a knowledge gap by investigating the development impacts projected for varying levels of climate ambition in the 2015 climate deal, as such a deal will necessarily impact on national decision making around resource allocation and development priorities. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are used as a lens through which to measure and frame the question: How can the global climate agreement affect development in the period to 2030? Using a combination desk study, integrated assessment modelling (IAM) and information from the literature, a subset of the 17 proposed SDGs are assessed according to the projected socio-economic outcomes of binary climate ambition scenarios.

 

Two scenarios are considered: a high ambition agreement (to limit global warming on pre-industrial levels to 2C by 2100) and a low ambition agreement (to limit global warming to 3-5C by 2100). These scenarios are represented by coupled representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). This allows both climate impacts and socioeconomic impacts of a high or low ambition 2015 climate deal to be considered, and the impact on national and regional development pathways to be investigated.

 

A broader regional scale assessment of Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is complemented by deep dives into 3 case study countries/regions: Uganda, Pakistan and the Caribbean. This selection of climate vulnerable countries gives a representative coverage of a least developed country (LDC), a middle income country (MIC) and a small island developing state (SIDS), all of which are groups of countries with particular development challenges.

 

Our findings show:

  • The decisions taken at UNFCCC COP21 in Paris will have a significant impact on global development by 2030, even before the resulting climate impacts are felt.
  • A high ambition agreement that aims to minimise global warming to 2C by 2100 on pre-industrial temperatures is essential to have the best chance of achieving the SDGs by 2030.
  • A high ambition agreement is most crucial to achieving the draft SDGs on poverty (SDG 1), inequality (SDG 10), climate change (SDG 13) and global partnerships for sustainable development (SDG 17).
  • Country case studies were used to compare and contrast with the above high-level regional findings.

Negotiators and the development community should find the outputs of this research useful to advocate for a stronger climate deal, and to ensure that the SDGs deliver climate smart development in the poorest and most climate vulnerable countries.