Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Friday 10 July - 11:30-13:00 UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM I

L4.3 - Regional Perspectives on Low Carbon Pathways

Large Parallel Session

Chair(s): P. Urquhart (Independent analyst, Climate resilient development and adaptation, South Africa)

Lead Convener(s): J. Roy (Jadavpur University, Jadavpur, India)

11:30

Introductory remarks

P. Urquhart (Independent analyst, Climate resilient development and adaptation, South Africa)

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Introductory remarks
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11:35

Regional Perspectives on Low Carbon Pathways: Exploring the conditionalities for climate resilient and equitable development with examples from India

J. Roy (Jadavpur University, Jadavpur, India)

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Regional Perspectives on Low Carbon Pathways: Exploring the conditionalities for climate resilient and equitable development with examples from India

J. Roy (1)
(1) Jadavpur University, Jadavpur, India

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It is beyond debate now that future ‘global’ stabilization target is fundamental to manage climate change, impacts and associated risks. Mainstream debate is around the need to coordinate the national goals with global agenda. National autonomy argument in fragmented world is dominating. Also national priorities vary depending on relative speed and level on growth trajectories. 

Low Carbon Pathways : Even though India has much lower per capita emissions, growth pattern of economic activities including energy supply sector are going to experience very high growth rates in coming decades. With a National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in place since 2008 a number of actions are in place. Top down global model estimated with India specific sectoral parameter show what additional widespread actions are needed. This clearly shows need for much larger actions: policies, technology deployment, institutions and capacity building are needed. Cross sectoral implications show need for transformative change in energy supply system. Bottom up study at national, state and city level help in identification of sector specific low carbon growth potential of multiple options compared to base year emissions. Potential is high in energy supply sector, buildings sector and agriculture sector with relatively low potential in industry sector which has made much progress in the past and transport sector has huge challenges. Looked into the issue from investment need perspective the sectoral distribution gets reversed. Industry sector where low hanging fruits are already harvested, high cost options are awaiting deployment. Genuine concerns exist on the technical cost/investment /system change. The cost effective solution list might not be the easiest to implement based on public acceptability, market entry barriers, existing policy vacuum, technical and institutional capacity available.  

Resilience : Impact and Adaptation to develop a climate change proof development trajectory is much in discussion in India also evident from National Action Plan. Many adaptation needs in India e.g. flood management systems, heat and cold related health safety systems, water system security, food security systems will enhance manifold the demand for energy supply with implications for synergistic mitigation efforts. Example of extreme event led health impact study shows that there is close link between adaptation and mitigation. To enhance resilience labour productivity needs to be protected. This needs huge investment on space conditioning. Energy intensive appliances demand is on steep rise for residential, agriculture and mobility sectors not only due to climatic parameters but also due to rising income. There is scope for energy efficient technology diffusion for new technologies but activity level growth is going to take away clearly the benefits in the short to medium term. Bending of curve cannot be seen in at least in next one and half decade. 

Equity : Climate justice calls for faster, larger access to modern energy. It is not about providing lighting and space cooling demand but about productive energy input supply. However, case studies on behavioural response also highlight the scope of take back effect due to behavioural response parameter of rebound effect. Experiments (solar micro grids in village electrification) are happening but scale up needs multiple interventions.  Technical feasibility is not in question but strategic implementation and multi level governance issues need equal attention.  So it is not only technology but behaviour and social practice matter no lesser for making transition to low carbon growth trajectory. Case studies at megacity level show how commitment to larger goal of low carbon growth through conscious decision making can only make a difference in final outcome. Analysis based on case studies of building operational energy demand lead us to conclude that when a technology becomes efficient and if end user is not consciously guided by larger goal of carbon footprint reduction but are looking at financial balance alone may not take a decision in the best interest of low carbon growth. Full economic, social and environmental benefit of appliance efficiency can be realized through better strategic management of operational behaviour of the end users.  It cannot be managed by correcting market price policy alone so there is need to strategically balance between social and market norms. Context of implementation in a fast growing developing country are important to understand. Implementation of newer techno-economic solutions does affect host of actors who will be losers and gainers. Technology deployment policy needs to be strategically designed through new fiscal instrument design market correction, land policy, social goal orientation which most of the time rests either with the federal government or with other non government actors. So besides numbers and evidences,  coordination among various layer of governance and choice of new policy instruments are also  at the core of speed of implementation. 

11:43

Panel discussion:

P. Urquhart (Independent analyst, Climate resilient development and adaptation, South Africa)

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Panel discussion:
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11:45

Deep decarbonisation and implications for emerging middle classes, Brazil

E. La Rovere (Instituto de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia - COPPE, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

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Deep decarbonisation and implications for emerging middle classes, Brazil
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11:50

Asia region Low Carbon Growth Prospect

T. Masui (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan)

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Asia region Low Carbon Growth Prospect
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11:55

Global and China perspectives

J. Kejun (Energy Research Institute , Beijing, China)

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Global and China perspectives
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12:00

Internal panel discussion

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Internal panel discussion
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12:03

Discussants:

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Discussants:
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12:05

Respondent: Institutional change to enable societal transition

R. Raven

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Respondent: Institutional change to enable societal transition
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12:12

Respondent: Adoption of infrastructure for low-carbon, climate resilient development, European perspective

K. Neuhoff (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Berlin, Germany)

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Respondent: Adoption of infrastructure for low-carbon, climate resilient development, European perspective
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12:19

Plenary discussion

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Plenary discussion
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12:44

Final response from Panel

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Final response from Panel
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12:53

Wrap-up and closure by the Chair

P. Urquhart (Independent analyst, Climate resilient development and adaptation, South Africa)

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Wrap-up and closure by the Chair
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