Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Wednesday 8 July - 15:00-16:30 UPMC Jussieu - ROOM 309 - Block 24/34

3327 - Adapting to Arctic Climate Change

Parallel Session

Chair(s): K. Latola (University of Arctic, Oulu, Finland), E. Gauthier (University of Franche Comté, Besançon, France), V. Masson-Delmotte (IPSL, Paris, France)

Convener(s): A. Scheepstra (Willem Barentsz Polar Institute, Groningen, Netherlands)

15:00

EU-PolarNet - Connecting Science with Society

N. Biebow (Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany), K. Lochte (Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Zentrum fuer Polar und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany)

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EU-PolarNet - Connecting Science with Society

N. Biebow (1) ; K. Lochte (2)
(1) Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, International Cooperation, Bremerhaven, Germany; (2) Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Zentrum fuer Polar und Meeresforschung, Directorate, Bremerhaven, Germany

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The rapid changes occurring in the Polar Regions are significantly influencing global climate with consequences for global society. European polar research has contributed critical knowledge to identifying the processes behind these rapid changes but, in contrast to lower latitudes, datasets from the Polar Regions are still insufficient to fully understand and more effectively predict the effects of change on our climate and society. This situation can only be improved by a more holistic integrated scientific approach, a higher degree of coordination of polar research and closer cooperation with all relevant actors on an international level.

The objectives of EU-PolarNet are to establish an ongoing dialogue between policymakers, business and industry leaders, local communities and scientists to increase mutual understanding and identify new ways of working that will deliver economic and societal benefits. The results of this dialogue will be brought together in a plan for an Integrated European Research Programme that will be co-designed with all relevant stakeholders and coordinated with the activities of many other polar research nations beyond Europe, including Canada and the United States, with which consortium partners already have productive links.

15:15

Keynote Speaker

A. Oskal (International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry, Guovdageaidnu/Kautokeino, Norway)

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Keynote Speaker
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15:35

The adaptation challenge in the Arctic

J. Ford (McGill University, Montreal, Canada), T. Pearce, (University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Australia), G. Mcdowell, (McGill University, Montreal, Canada)

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The adaptation challenge in the Arctic

J. Ford (1) ; T. Pearce, (2) ; G. Mcdowell, (1)
(1) McGill University, Geography, Montreal, Canada; (2) University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Australia

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We reviewed published research on climate change adaptation, vulnerability, and resilience, to identify and characterize the nature and magnitude of the adaptation challenge facing the Arctic. Framing the results using Adger and Barnett’s (2009) ‘reasons for concern about adaptation,’ we demonstrate that: (i) even in the context of >3C warming already documented across the Arctic in the last 30 years, it is not the speed or magnitude of climate change per se that poses a challenge to adaptation, but how climate change interacts with non-climatic factors; (ii) significant barriers are likely to constrain adaptation in absence of concerted action on broader human development deficits in northern regions. These barriers span multiple scales and are linked to long-term trajectories of disempowerment, colonization, and globalization; (iii) the potential for maladaptation is being increased by a weakening of key sources of adaptive capacity, compounded by limited anticipatory actions across scales to prepare for future impacts; and (vi) communities and Indigenous organizations have played leading roles in adaptation decision-making in the North American Arctic and to a lesser extent in the Nordic countries, but in Russia the very nature of climate change as a potential risk is not agreed upon. The challenge of adaptation in the Arctic is thus formidable, yet the review suggests that drivers of vulnerability can be overcome, avoided, or reduced by individual and collective efforts across scales.

15:50

APECS France, a network of French early-career polar researchers involved in education and outreach activities

P. Bourgain (APECS France, Grenoble, France), A.-M. Thierry, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), G. Lamarque, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), C. Clément-Chastel, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), M. Lacarra, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), Z. Koenig, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), F. Amélineau, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), S. Serre, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), X. Meyer, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), Y. Drocourt, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), M. Gesta, (APECS France, Grenoble, France), L. P. A.-C. Bilan (APECS France, Grenoble, France)

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APECS France, a network of French early-career polar researchers involved in education and outreach activities

P. Bourgain (1) ; AM. Thierry, (1) ; G. Lamarque, (1) ; C. Clément-Chastel, (1) ; M. Lacarra, (1) ; Z. Koenig, (1) ; F. Amélineau, (1) ; S. Serre, (1) ; X. Meyer, (1) ; Y. Drocourt, (1) ; M. Gesta, (1) ; LPAC. Bilan (1)
(1) APECS France, Grenoble, France

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APECS-France (www.apecs-france.org), the French national committee of the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS), is a young organization of volunteers created in 2013. Its objectives are to promote early-career polar scientists and to improve the dissemination of polar sciences towards the general public and school children in particular. APECS-France has developed several activities, projects and partnerships to better educate French students about the polar regions, better explaining their importance in the context of global climate change. For instance, the French polar week is organized twice a year, and thousands of pupils can exchange with polar scientists about their research and their life as young scientists. Every December 1st, APECS-France collaborates with OurSpaces, British foundation for the good governance of international spaces, to celebrate Antarctica Day, connecting young students to the French research polar station Dumont d'Urville in Antarctica. Schools are also involved to follow scientific expeditions: such long-term education and outreach projects imply resources for teachers, a blog, visits in classrooms, and/or oceanographic data analysis. APECS-France is now planning to edit a children’s book using students’ drawings as well as photographs taken during the Pax Arctica - On the Shoulders of Shackleton Expedition. More recently, APECS-France has developed a partnership with Wild-Touch (French non-profit organization created by Luc Jacquet, director of March of the Penguins) and CRI (the Centre for Research and Interdisciplinarity) to help students and teachers develop a scientific project about polar regions. In the frame of COP21, APECS-France aims at organizing a physical event in Paris to allow students from 15 to 18 to exchange with young polar researchers and representatives of the indigenous population from the Arctic about the impacts of climate change in the Arctic.

16:05

The global economic implications of the melting of the Greenland ice sheet

M. J. Alvarez (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands), D. Yumashev (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands), G. Whiteman, (Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands), J. Wilkinson (British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom), P. Wadhams (University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom), C. Hope (University of Cambridge,, Cambridge, United Kingdom)

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The global economic implications of the melting of the Greenland ice sheet

MJ. Alvarez (1) ; D. Yumashev (1) ; G. Whiteman, (1) ; J. Wilkinson (2) ; P. Wadhams (3) ; C. Hope (4)
(1) Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; (2) British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (3) University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (4) University of Cambridge,, Judge business school, Cambridge, United Kingdom

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The Arctic has been changing at unprecedented rates over the past two decades, with the average rate of warming in the region roughly twice as high as the global average (IPCC, 2014). According to WGI of the 5th Assessment Report by IPCC (2013), there is growing evidence that Arctic change may have far-reaching consequences across the globe. Yet the potential global economic impacts from specific physical changes in the Arctic region are largely unstudied (Whiteman et al., 2013).  This paper contributes to this emerging research agenda by assessing potential economic impacts from the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) using the PAGE integrated assessment model. PAGE is one of the top three IAMs used for climate change policy analysis and estimation of economic impacts related to climate change. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been previously used to estimate the net present value of economic impacts of climate change (Stern, 2007; Nordhaus, 2008; Hope, 2011; Hope, 2013), explicitly considering the potential economic impacts of Arctic change has thus far only been applied to potential methane release in the East Siberian Sea (Whiteman et al., 2013). 

IAMs are simplified representations of key relevant systems such as “emissions and their socioeconomic determinants, the atmosphere-ocean-climate system, ecosystems, socioeconomic impacts, and policy and responses” (Parson and Fisher-Vanden, 1997).  However, to date, IAMs (including PAGE), do not directly incorporate physical change into model configurations, but rather rely upon temperature estimates.  Thus, large irreversibilities such as sea level rise from increased melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) do not directly feed into the IAM structures.  Current and future changes in GIS carry significant implications for the environment and for the global economy. To address this gap (and as part of the ICE- ARC project[1]), we adopt a transdisciplinary approach to adapt PAGE in order to evaluate the economic impact of different scenarios of GIS change.

More specifically, in this paper we (i) propose model modifications to integrate the physical changes in the GIS explicitly into the PAGE IAM, and ii) identify how best to assess economic impacts (costs and benefits) resulting from it. This includes looking into the potential drivers of the GIS melt – such as overall Arctic warming and black carbon pollution from the increasing wildfires (Benning et al., 2014; Doherty et al., 2013) as well as the main mechanisms by which the GIS melting will cause economic impacts globally. These include: sea level rise (which highlights the need to de-couple the GIS and Antarctic ice sheets in the PAGE sea level rise module), changing atmospheric and ocean circulations and its effect on weather patterns in Europe, North America and further afield. In order to achieve this, we develop distinct scenarios for the GIS melt under a given RCP (global emissions scenario) and work out the relevant economic costs globally using PAGE-ICE.References:Benning,L.G.A.M.Anesio,S.Lutz&M.Tranter(2014),Biological impact onGreenland’s albedo,Nature Geoscience 7,691/Doherty,S.J.,T.C.Grenfell,S.Forsström,D.L. Hegg,R.E.Brandt,S.G.Warren(2013),Observed vertical redistribution of black carbon and other insoluble light-absorbing particles in melting snow,J.Geophys.Res.Atmos.,118, 5553–5569/Hope,C.(2011),The PAGE09 integrated assessment model:A technical description, Cambridge Judge Business School Working Paper, 4(11)/Hope, C. (2013), Critical issues for the calculation of the social cost of CO2:why the estimates from PAGE09 are higher than those from PAGE2002,Climatic Change,117,3,Page531-543/IPCC (2013). Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of WG1 to the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC/IPCC (2014). Climate change 2014: synthesis report. 5th Assessment Report. IPCC/Nordhaus,W.D.(2008),A question of balance- weighing the options on global warming policies,Yale University Press/Parson,E.,Fisher-Vanden,K.(1997),Integrated assessment models of global climate change, Annu. Rev. Energy Environ, 22:589–628/Stern,N.et al.(2007),The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change,  Cambridge University Press/Whiteman,G.,HopeC.,Wadhams,P.(2013),Vast costs of Arctic change,Nature Comment,499: 401–403[1]This study is part of a programme of research funded by the European Union Framework 7 Programme, Grant Agreement 603887