Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

Menu
  • Home
  • Zoom Interactive Programme
Cliquer pour fermer

Thursday 9 July - 16:30-18:00 UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM IX

2232 - The Copernicus Climate Change Service : an European answer to Climate Change Challenges

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): V. Pircher (Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy, La Défense cedex, France)

Convener(s): B. Pinty (European Commission, Brussells, Belgium), D. Marbouty (Ministry of National Education, Higher Education and Research, PARIS, France), P. Courtier (Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy, La Défense cedex, France)

16:30

Europe's Eyes on Climate Change

P. Brunet (European Commission, Brussells, Belgium)

Abstract details
Europe's Eyes on Climate Change

P. Brunet (1)
(1) European Commission, Dir. of aerospace, maritime and defence industries of dg grow, Bruxelles, Belgium

Abstract content

Climate change is a major global challenge with a range of potential social and economic impacts and the need for accurate information about the impacts of our changing climate is growing increasingly urgent.. Copernicus, through its new thematic service, will support policy-makers and relevant public authorities in monitoring the changing climate in order to better understand its potential effects and take appropriate actions. To illustrate the effort dedicated to this operational programme, a a total budget of EUR 4.3 billion has been allocated to the Copernicus programme (including the satellites), EUR 900 million thereof are dedicated to the six services. The importance of the climate change is reflected by the allocation of EUR 215 million (almost a quarter of the services budget) to the Copernicus Climate Change service (C3S). This service will bring together and integrate many different sources of information about the Earth, including data from the dedicated and operational Sentinel satellites and information from the other Copernicus services monitoring our oceans and ice masses, our atmosphere, and the Earth’s land surfaces. The study of climate change involves a wide range of stakeholders and different scientific disciplines. Consequently, the C3S will be inherently cooperative, collaborative and international. Copernicus aims at becoming a trusted reference source for climate-related information and will become Europe’s main contribution to global efforts to better understand and monitor our planet’s natural systems. The C3S products will comprise ECVs (Essential Climate Variables), a set of key variables identified by GCOS for monitoring and predicting climate change, as well as Climate indices and Indicators required to address sector specific issues. Amongst the first sectors to be taken up by the pre-operational service are domains of particular interest, for instance water management and energy. Based on the ECVs and the indices and indicators tailor-made products will be developed integrating geophysical data with ancillary data on population, infrastructures, industrial assets, transport, etc. These products will support the holistic assessment of proposed climate policy measures for different possible scenarios for future developments. The Copernicus Climate Change service is ready to begin operations in a phased approach, starting with a proof-of-concept and the pre-operations.  The service is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) [cf. Jean-Noel Thepaut "The Copernicus Climate Change Service", same session] The service will embody a comprehensive operational climate change monitoring system, which will continue to evolve in light of, and in close cooperation with, existing European and international initiatives, projects and activities, which it will complement with integrated modelling, reanalysis and observation capabilities.

16:45

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

J.N. Thepaut (ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

JN. Thepaut (1)
(1) ECMWF, Research, Reading, United Kingdom

Abstract content

This presentation will provide an overview of the C3S:

This service will combine observations of the climate system with the latest science to develop authoritative, quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate in Europe and worldwide. The service will benefit from a network of observations, both from in situ and satellite sensors, and modelling capabilities. Moreover, it will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers).

The service will deliver substantial economic value to Europe by (1) informing policy development to protect european citizens from climate-related hazards such as high-impact weather events, (2) improving planning of mitigations and adaptation practices for key human and societal activities, (3) promoting the development of new services by providing datasets and tools following an free and open data policy.

The talk will review the expected portfolio of C3S products and datasets which include consistent estimates of multiple Essential Climate Variables, global and regional reanalyses (covering a comprehensive Earth-system domain: atmosphere, ocean, land, carbon), products based on observations alone (gridded; homogenised station series; reprocessed Climate Data Records), a near-real-time climate monitoring facility, multi-model seasonal forecasts and climate projections and scenarios at global and regional scales.

This wealth of climate information will be the basis for generating a wide variety of climate indicators aimed at supporting adaptation and mitigation policies in Europe in a number of sectors including (but not restricted to) energy, water management, agriculture and forestry, insurance, health, tourism, infrastructure, disaster risk reduction, coastal areas). The service will be fully operational by 2018, and continually and independently evaluated and improved, to ensure that C3S represents the latest developments in climate science and that innovative service elements are introduced reflecting current research. Appropriate channels and interfaces with Research and Innovation activities in Europe will be established to ensure an efficient transfer from research to operational climate service related activities.

How is the climate changing? Climate monitoring based on observations

D. Dee (ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
How is the climate changing? Climate monitoring based on observations

D. Dee (1)
(1) ECMWF, Reanalysis, Reading, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Earth observations, recorded over time by a multitude of instruments ranging from early mercury barometers to synthetic aperture radars and other advanced satellite sensors, contain the fundamental information at our disposal to describe in detail how the climate has changed since the pre-industrial age. Observations contain the evidence that the Earth surface is warming, glaciers are melting, sea-level is rising and the oceans are acidifying. Observations allow us to monitor and assess more subtle changes taking place in our environment related to air quality, regional rainfall patterns and the occurrence of extreme events. Observations provide the foundation for developing and testing the Earth-system models and prediction systems that are needed to help us understand our common future.

An important challenge for the Copernicus Climate Change Service therefore is to improve access to observations and to the tools needed to render them useful for climate science and climate services. A dedicated Climate Data Store is being developed for this purpose, with a catalogue that includes in-situ observations, measurements from space, homogenised and reprocessed climate data records, model-based climate reanalyses and information about data quality and uncertainties. The reanalysed data sets, constructed by combining climate observations from multiple sources with state-of-the-art models, provide the most comprehensive view of the changing climate. They contain time series of many essential climate variables, pertaining to the atmosphere, land surfaces, oceans and cryosphere, that extend back by decades or more. Continual improvement of climate reanalyses with complete and consistent descriptions of the Earth system at global and regional scales will be key to the success of the Copernicus programme.

Climate prediction and projections in support of climate services

S. Planton (Météo-France, Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
Climate prediction and projections in support of climate services

S. Planton (1)
(1) Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

One main basic component of climate information disseminated by climate services are future climate predictions and projections. Either used directly or through sectoral impact analyses, future climate simulations are needed to develop adaptation strategies or to evaluate the efficiency of climate policies. Long-term forecasting is already developed at the European and at the international level with some applications that are already useful in different socio-economic fields, like in the energy sector either at mid or tropical latitudes. Climate projections, from global to regional scale, are already feeding services within the context of  national climate services all around the world with a very large spectrum of potential applications. We will give some insights on the usefulness of climate predictions and projections within the context of evolving requirements coming from the user community. We will give specific attention on the uncertainty issue with the common practice for climate prediction and climate change projection consisting in using multi-model ensembles of simulations putting some constraints on the climate services construction.

The impacts of climate change - Sectoral applications

R. Vautard (LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

Abstract details
The impacts of climate change - Sectoral applications

R. Vautard (1)
(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

Abstract content

Climate change, its current and future foreseenable impacts have been assessed in the 5th IPCC report. Beyond mitigation, necessary to keep climate warming at a manageable level, the report pinpoints the need for adaptation for coping with unavoidable consequences. However most damageable impacts are expected in several decades, which is sometimes too far a horizon, with a number of uncertainties, to easily foresee businesses in a sustainable market for adaptation.

The talk will present exemplified areas where impacts of climate change present sufficient evidence and challenges to be implemented in a public service like de Copernicus Climate Change Service. It will also review, for a few cases, new challenges for science, and the need for even basic science to support climate change services. These exemples will cover classical sectoral areas such as water, energy and health. It will also develop from a few examples how extreme events and their impacts, as a consequence of climate change, and their attribution could, after overcoming several scientific and communication challenges, be fully part of a public climate change service.

The presentation will also develop the challenges for modelling but also for monitoring the earth, and particularly the impacts of climate change.

How to inform policy-makers ? Supporting and enabling evidence-based policy-making

G. Barker (Department of Energy and Climate Change, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
How to inform policy-makers ? Supporting and enabling evidence-based policy-making

G. Barker (1)
(1) Department of Energy and Climate Change, Former minister of state for climate change (2010-2014), London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

As we get closer to the UNFCCC legally-binding international climate change agreement set to be agreed in Paris in December 2016, policy-makers need to be equipped with evidence-based information to assist them in determining future strategies to address climate change challenges. 

Developing and improving the science is one thing; making it available to its intended users and presenting it in a format and language which will actually assist policy-making are today’s challenges. We have identifies three main areas to discuss:

  • Language and visualisation – though the evidence is scientific, the language should be adapted to its intended users –how science-literate are policy-makers anyway?
  • How to translate uncertainty in policy-making? One of the UNFCCC core principle is that national governments should err on the side of precaution in the face of scientific uncertainty. How do we justify this approach to citizens?
  • Policy-making cannot satisfy itself with a ‘one size fits all’ approach and needs a sectoral approach to help target strategies and policies to each specific industry.

Panel discussion: the Copernicus Climate Change service

J.N. Thepault (ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Panel discussion: the Copernicus Climate Change service
Abstract content