Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Friday 10 July - 14:00-15:30 UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM XII

4402 (b) - Low carbon pathways for staying below 2°C: National contributions

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): D. Van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Bilthoven, Netherlands), P. Criqui (ANCRE and CNRS, 1221 rue des Résidences 38040 Grenoble Cedex, France)

Convener(s): H. Waisman (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Paris, France), M. Tavoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei , Milan, Italy), R. Schaeffer (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), B. Metz (European Climate Foundation, The Hague, Netherlands)

14:00

Regional greenhouse gas emission pathways within the context of the 2 °C target: Insights from the LIMTS project

M. Tavoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei , Milan, Italy), D. Van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Bilthoven, Netherlands)

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Regional greenhouse gas emission pathways within the context of the 2 °C target: Insights from the LIMTS project

M. Tavoni (1) ; D. Van Vuuren (2)
(1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei , Climate change and sustainable development programme, Milan, Italy; (2) PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Climate, air pollution and energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands

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Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. In several recent model comparison studies, different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations were explored in relation to the 2 °C target. The scenarios developed in these projects can be used to derive key information for individual (major) economies and regions. This includes for instance information on emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. In this contribution, we present these otutcomes (especially those of the LIMITS project) and focus on the differences across these regions. For instance, in terms of mitigation measures, costs and carbon budgets clearly different results can be noted. In our contribution, we also highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

 

As the models presented in this contribution do have global coverage - the presentation allows also to act as a bridge between the two important parts of the session on low carbon emission pathways (global and regional).

14:10

National pathways to deep decarbonization - Methodological insights from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)

M. Colombier (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Paris, France), E. Guérin (Sustainable development solutions network, New York, United States of America), J. Sachs (Sustainable Development Solutions Network, New York, United States of America), H. Waisman (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Paris, France)

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National pathways to deep decarbonization - Methodological insights from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)

M. Colombier (1) ; E. Guérin (2) ; J. Sachs (2) ; H. Waisman (1)
(1) Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Paris, France; (2) Sustainable development solutions network, New York, United States of America

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Can countries take the carbon out of their economies, and still provide economic prosperity for their citizens? National circumstances and approaches differ, but four pillars of decarbonization are identified universally, in developed and developing countries alike: (i) strong improvements in energy efficiency, (ii) making energy carriers almost zero carbon (low-carbon electricity sources, biofuels, hydrogen), (iii) shifting energy use as far as possible to these low-carbon energy carriers , (iv) fostering structural changes reducing output from carbon-intensive activities and (v) reduction of remaining direct emissions, using a variety of technologies.

An initiative of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (Iddri) and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), the 'deep decarbonization pathways' project (DDPP) analyses how the different pillars of decarbonization can be operationalized in 15 countries representing, in total, 70% of global 2010 GHG emissions: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, the UK, and the USA.

The approach of DDPP is to have country research team develop a national-scale pathway analysis for deep decarbonization consistent with the 2°C global target to 2050. This study is supported by expert-based assessments of national decarbonization as basis for an internally coherent and transparent analysis of the country-specific transformations able to satisfy the twin objectives of development and deep decarbonization.

The preliminary results from this work were published in a report for the UN Secretary-General, in support of the Climate Leaders’ Summit on September 23, 2014. Revised analysis providing a comprehensive vision of technical, socio-economic and policy aspects of long-term deep decarbonization will be conducted in early 2015 and delivered to the French Government in the lead-up to COP-21.

In this presentation, Michel Colombier, IDDRI's scientific Director, will present the scientific approach and the methodological specificities of the scenario analysis that make the DDPP relevant to inform national and international policy debates. Notably, a focus will be given to the backcasting long-term approach, the "dashboard" methodology that allows transparent and explicit representation of the pathways and the iterative process for elaboration of the national pathways. 

14:20

Technology Policies and Accelerated Diffusion of Decarbonization Wedges

P. Criqui (CNRS and ANCRE, 38040 Grenoble cedex, France), N. Alazard-Toux (IFPEN and ANCRE, 1-4 Avenue du Bois-Préau, 92852 Rueil Malmaison Cedex, France), J.-G. Devezeaux De Lavergne (CEA and ANCRE, 91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France)

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Technology Policies and Accelerated Diffusion of Decarbonization Wedges

P. Criqui (1) ; N. Alazard-Toux (2) ; JG. Devezeaux De Lavergne (3)
(1) CNRS and ANCRE, Pacte-edden, 38040 Grenoble cedex, France; (2) IFPEN and ANCRE, Direction economie veille, 1-4 Avenue du Bois-Préau, 92852 Rueil Malmaison Cedex, France; (3) CEA and ANCRE, I-tésé, centre de saclay bâtiment 524, 91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France

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The rapid and deep decarbonization of energy systems that is required in the 2°C scenarios will result from a complex mix of institutional, behavioral and technological changes. While many economic models and mitigation scenarios have initially focused on the role of economic instruments for triggering these changes, the role of new technologies have been progressively been made more explicit as a central element for the feasibility of low carbon futures. In particular, filling the gap between bottom-up nationally determined contributions and the requirements of 2°C scenarios will require a worldwide effort to accelerate the diffusion of energy efficiency and low carbon options.

Following to pioneering studies (Stabilization wedges, Socolow and Pacala [2004], Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA, since 2006) the role of new energy technologies has been extensively studied in the past ten years (EMF 24, different projects in European Framework Programs, IPCC AR5…). While a new stage in climate negotiations and policies is expected to start when the Paris Climate 2015 results in a positive outcome, the fulfillment of the announced Nationally Determined Contributions will involve a quick mobilization and scaling-up at world level of low carbon technologies, on the demand as well as on the supply side.

Research projects such as the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project of UN-SDSN provide clear images of what has to be accomplished in the different countries in order to come closer to emissiontrajectories compatible with the 2°C scenarios. However further enquiry is needed to explore both the radical/systemic innovations and the policy and social dimensions of the accelerated diffusion of low carbon technologies. In this context, the National Alliance for the Coordination of Energy Research (ANCRE), which gathers the scientific resources of the main public research institutions in France, proposes a communication on the development of low carbon energy technologies and systems. These are the “Decarbonization Wedges” that ANCRE is currently exploring in an eponym study that mobilizes the knowledge resources of this organization.

The communication will first identify the main decarbonization wedges to 2050 and analyze their potential, Technology Readyness Level, and expected development in different regions according to international studies such as Deep Decarbonization Pathways. It will then analyze the different types of barriers to be overcome before their rapid and massive diffusion: either technical, economic or social. It will then present elements of consistent RD&D strategies at the international and national level to speed-up the diffusion of these technologies in the different regions of the world.

14:30

Analysis of current climate policies, intended national determined contributions (INDCs) and possibilities for strengthened policies at the regional scale

M. Den Elzen (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), H. Fekete, (NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany), A. Admiraal, (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), N. Forsell, (IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria), N. Höhne (NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany), A. Korosuo, (IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria), M. Roelfsema, (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), H. Van Soest (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), K. Wouters, (Ecofys, Utrecht, Netherlands), T. Day, (NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany), M. Hagemann, (NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany), A. Hof (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), A. Mosnier, (IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria)

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Analysis of current climate policies, intended national determined contributions (INDCs) and possibilities for strengthened policies at the regional scale

M. Den Elzen (1) ; H. Fekete, (2) ; A. Admiraal, (1) ; N. Forsell, (3) ; N. Höhne (2) ; A. Korosuo, (3) ; M. Roelfsema, (1) ; H. Van Soest (4) ; K. Wouters, (5) ; T. Day, (2) ; M. Hagemann, (2) ; A. Hof (1) ; A. Mosnier, (3)
(1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Department of Climate, Air and Energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany; (3) IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria; (4) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Climate, Air and Energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (5) Ecofys, Utrecht, Netherlands

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This study provides an overview of projected greenhouse gas emissions in major emitting countries/regions up to 2030, taking into account the emission trajectories based on the most effective current and planned climate and energy policies, as well as selected enhanced mitigation measures and the intended national determined contributions (INDCs).  In addition, we also analyse the ambition of the INDCs using a wide range of methods (see below). The country-specific mitigation policies in promising areas for enhanced actions are in line with national priorities and opportunities (e.g. co-benefits). The analysis focuses on 13 countries/regions (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Turkey and the US). The impact of the most effective current and planned policies on greenhouse gas emissions was estimated based on calculations from energy and land use model calculations, and scenarios from national and international studies. The main findings are:

  • The degree to which countries/regions are likely to achieve their 2020 pledges under current policies varies: of those considered here, Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and Russia are likely to achieve their pledges through existing policies. Australia, Canada, Indonesia, Mexico, South Korea and the US require additional measures to achieve their 2020 pledges. The US and Mexico could achieve their pledges if planned policies are effectively implemented.
  • Even though current and planned policies are projected to have an effect on emissions, increases would still occur in Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey until 2030. Emissions in Brazil, Canada, South Korea, the Russian Federation and the US would remain stable approximately at 2010 levels. For the EU, emissions are projected to decrease further under current policies, but not enough to meet the INDC of EU of a 40% domestic reduction target by 2030.
  • In all the countries/regions considered, significant further reductions are possible through a selection of policy enhancement measures that are in line with national priorities. The selection of policies and measures is illustrative and not exhaustive. With the selected enhancement measures included here, China and Mexico would stabilise emissions by 2030, at the latest. The EU, Japan, South Korea, and the United States would achieve a pathway with further reductions in line with their long-term targets. The EU would meet its INDC for 2030, and the US its announced 2025 reduction target. Emissions in India, Indonesia and Turkey would continue to increase strongly, but less so than under current and planned policies.
  • Looking only at 13 major emitting countries/regions, the enhanced policy scenarios in this report could reduce emissions by 6.1 GtCO2e by 2030, compared to under current policies. This is roughly a third of the difference in global emission levels between a scenario consistent with the 2 °C target and a current policies scenario based on the UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2014.
  • Countries’ efforts should be of similar ambition. A large variety of methods exist that allow to compare countries’ efforts. For a comprehensive ambition assessment we propose to use an array of methods that we group in terms of whether they assess “moral obligation” or “technical necessity”.
  • Applying these methods to existing proposals by the USA, China and the EU, a consistent picture emerges that the proposals by EU and China are more ambitious than the proposal by the USA. The methods do not provide a consistent picture on whether EU’s or China’s proposal is more ambitious. While China leads slightly on “moral obligation”, the EU generally leads on “technical necessity”.
14:40

Panel discussion

B. Metz (European Climate Foundation, The Hague, Netherlands), E. La Rovere (Instituto de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia - COPPE, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), J. Kejun (Energy Research Institute , Beijing, China), L. Clarke (Pacific Northwest National

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Poster presentation

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Poster presentation
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