Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Thursday 9 July - 14:30-16:00 UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM IV

3320 - Food Systems and Food Security: Health and Environment

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): J. Ingram (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)

Convener(s): M. Springmann (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)

The global and regional health impacts of future food production under climate change

M. Springmann (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), D. Mason-D'croz (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, United States of America), S. Robinson (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, United States of America), P. Ballon (Universidad del Pacifico, Lima, Peru), T. Garnett (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), C. Godfray (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), D. Gollin (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), M. Rayner (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), P. Scarborough (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The global and regional health impacts of future food production under climate change

M. Springmann (1) ; D. Mason-D'croz (2) ; S. Robinson (2) ; P. Ballon (3) ; T. Garnett (4) ; C. Godfray (5) ; D. Gollin (6) ; M. Rayner (7) ; P. Scarborough (7)
(1) University of Oxford, Department of Population Health; Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington DC, United States of America; (3) Universidad del Pacifico, Department of economics, Lima, Peru; (4) University of Oxford, Environmental change institute, Oxford, United Kingdom; (5) University of Oxford, Department of zoology, Oxford, United Kingdom; (6) University of Oxford, Deparment of international development, Oxford, United Kingdom; (7) University of Oxford, British heart foundation centre on population approaches to non-communicable disease prevention, Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Background: One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its impact on agriculture. While much research has focused on questions of food security, less attention has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. We estimate excess mortality due to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050.

Methods: We linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red-meat consumption, and body weight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths due to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions and three socio-economic pathways, which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs.

Findings: The model predicts that by 2050 climate change will lead to per-capita reductions of 3%, 4%, and 1% in global food availability, fruit and vegetable consumption, and red-meat consumption, respectively. Those changes were associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths globally (95% CI: 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided due to changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to occur in South and East Asia. Adopting climate-stabilization pathways reduced the number of climate-related deaths by 29-71% depending on their stringency.

Interpretation: The health impacts of climate change from changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors could be significant, and exceed other climate-related health impacts that have been estimated. Climate change mitigation could prevent a substantial number of climate-related deaths. Strengthening public-health programmes aimed at preventing and treating diet and weight-related risk factors could be a suitable climate change adaptation strategy. 

Understanding the impact of international climate policies on regional food security using an Integrated Assessment Model

Y. Cui (University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States of America), S. Waldhoff, (Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL, College Park, MD, United States of America), E. Gilmore (University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States of America)

Abstract details
Understanding the impact of international climate policies on regional food security using an Integrated Assessment Model

Y. Cui (1) ; S. Waldhoff, (2) ; E. Gilmore (1)
(1) University of Maryland, School of public policy, College Park, MD, United States of America; (2) Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL, College Park, MD, United States of America

Abstract content

We evaluate changes to regional food security under different international climate policy structures using an integrated assessment (IA) model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Climate change mitigation policies may affect food security through complex interactions of changing food prices by altering land use patterns and changing income by influencing economic development and poverty reduction. IA models provide a consistent framework for evaluating these effects using assumptions that are consistent with the estimates of the costs and other impacts of climate policies.

First, we develop a measure of food security that can be estimated in GCAM based on economic accessibility and nutritional value. Specifically, national and regional food accessibility is approximated by the fraction of income spent on staple commodities, weighted by total food calorie availability and the share provided by staples. To better capture regional variability, we develop this measure by estimating regional consumer prices of staple commodities from the global producer prices modeled in GCAM. Second, we evaluate the implications over different socioeconomic scenarios, represented by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Finally, we estimate the impact of a universal carbon tax (UCT) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to reach global climate targets reflected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), without and with transfer payment using two illustrative allocation regimes. 

We find that the socioeconomic pathway and the climate policy regime have important implications for food accessibility. More optimistic SSPs generally improve food accessibility with greater marginal benefits in poor and already food insecure regions. Second, impacts on food accessibility caused by a UCT mitigation policy differ across regions with greater impacts in developing countries. Third, regional variability of food access is further modified with payment transfers in global carbon trading. In particular, an allocation regime based on future population is expected to favor developing regions and thus moderate regional inequality of food access, while an allocation regime based on historical emissions tends to exacerbate the cross-region variability.

By exploring the magnitude and distribution of impacts on food security under alternative climate policy scenarios, we capture an important dimension of regional impacts of climate policy beyond mitigation costs.  

Keywords: Food prices, food consumption, international climate policy, burden-sharing regimes, Integrated Assessment model, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Acknowledgement: This material is based upon work supported in part by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory and the U.S. Army Research Office via the Minerva Initiative under grant number W911NF-13-1-0307.  

Household and food security: what lessons can we learn from food secure households?

S. Silvestri (International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya), S. Douxchamps (International Livestock Research Institute, Ouagadogou, Burkina Faso), P. Kristjianson (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya), W. Foerch (CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), M. Radeny (ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), I. Mutie (International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya), C. Quiros (International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya), H. Mario (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) , QLD , Australia), A. Ndungu (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya), N. Ndiwa (International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya), J. Mango (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya), L. Claessen (International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Nairobi, Kenya), M. Rufino (CIFOR / CCAFS, Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Household and food security: what lessons can we learn from food secure households?

S. Silvestri (1) ; S. Douxchamps (2) ; P. Kristjianson (3) ; W. Foerch () ; M. Radeny (4) ; I. Mutie (1) ; C. Quiros (1) ; H. Mario (5) ; A. Ndungu (3) ; N. Ndiwa (1) ; J. Mango (3) ; L. Claessen (6) ; M. Rufino (7)
(1) International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) International Livestock Research Institute, Ouagadogou, Burkina Faso; (3) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya; (4) ILRI, CCAFS East Africa, Nairobi, Kenya; (5) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) , QLD , Australia; (6) International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Nairobi, Kenya; (7) CIFOR / CCAFS, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

The potential impacts of climate change on food security in East Africa, while complex and variable due to highly heterogeneous landscapes, are a cause of concern. How well people are able to adapt to, or reduce climate change effects will depend on whether they are able to change their behaviour and adopt improved agricultural technologies and management strategies.

While there is a rapidly growing literature on vulnerability and adaptation to increased climatic variability and climate change, significant knowledge gaps still exist, especially regarding the assessment of adaptation options in different environments and how these might be appropriately targeted to different types of households to reduce food insecurity.

This study therefore addresses a series of questions, such as:  what are the key factors that contribute to household-level food security; what lessons can we learn from food secure households; and what agricultural interventions, options and management strategies are likely to benefit female-headed households in particular. It uses a unique dataset of 600 households to explore a wide range of indicators capturing different aspects of household performance and well-being for different types of households — female-headed, male-headed, food secure, food insecure — and assess livelihoods options and strategies and how they influence food security. The analysis is based on a very detailed farm characterisation survey carried on in three sites in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

The results of this study show that food secure farmers appear to be the ones that diversify the most, have a variety of crops on their farms and are market oriented. In addition, domestic asset increases the likelihood of being food secure for female headed households. Yet, a different livelihood portfolio is pursued by men and female head of household, with women less likely to grow high-value crops then men and with a less diversified crop portfolio.

These findings can inform the targeting of national and regional policies to enhance adaptation in agricultural smallholder systems of East Africa. Implications of these findings include identifying actions that are likely to contribute more to food security and that can better enhance food security for female-headed as well as male-headed households. These usually include interventions that enable households’ access to information about new technologies and practices especially though innovative communication effort, and new market opportunities.

IPCC AR5's contribution to the understanding of the future of fisheries and aquaculture and the knowledge gaps that have yet to be covered

A. Seggel (FAO, Rome, Italy), D. Soto, (FAO, Rome, Italy), C. Deyoung (FAO, Rome, Italy), T. Bahri (FAO, Rome, Italy)

Abstract details
IPCC AR5's contribution to the understanding of the future of fisheries and aquaculture and the knowledge gaps that have yet to be covered

A. Seggel (1) ; D. Soto, (2) ; C. Deyoung (2) ; T. Bahri (2)
(1) FAO, Fisheries and aquaculture department, Rome, Italy; (2) FAO, Fisheries and aquaculture, Rome, Italy

Abstract content

Our Common Future under Climate Change

Abstract for an oral presentationTitle: IPCC AR5’s contribution to the understanding of the future of fisheries and aquaculture and the knowledge gaps that have yet to be covered. 

 

The IPCC AR5 provides highly relevant knowledge on the future implications of climate change on global fisheries and aquaculture resources. This presentation sets out to highlight how the IPCC AR5 contributes to the discussion on climate change and its direct and indirect effects on fisheries and aquaculture, our understanding of vulnerabilities within the sector and dependent communities and economies, and adaptation and mitigation options from within the sector. Furthermore, it will identify knowledge gaps of the IPCC AR5 that remain to be covered as well as provide additional knowledge not yet captured by the AR5. The presentation will provide examples of vulnerability questions and methodologies being applied from within the sector, covering inland, marine fisheries and aquaculture systems.  Concrete examples of how fishers, aquaculture farmers, post-harvest systems and dependent communities are perceiving and reacting to climate variability and change will be shared. Filling knowledge gaps and up-scaling our efforts are important in order to better comprehend how food, nutrition and livelihood security as well as economic growth objectives from fisheries and aquaculture are required to change in order to be climate smart.

The abstract is submitted on behalf of the Global Partnership for Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture (PaCFA).