Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Friday 10 July - 14:00-15:30 UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM VIII

3325 (b) - Creating the climate change groundswell by communicating business, science and regional activity

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): E. Mcneely (Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America)

Convener(s): H. Thomas (Oxford University, Oxford, France), D. Ryan (Regional Centre for Climate Change and Decision Making, Buenos Aires, Argentina)

14:00

Academic and Business Solutions for People and the Planet

E. Mcneely (Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America), P. Asheen (3DS, Paris, France), V. Collen (Timberland, Stratham,NH, United States of America)

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Academic and Business Solutions for People and the Planet
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14:15

Galvanizing climate action at all levels

H. Thomas (Oxford University, Oxford, France), B. Guy (Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, United States of America), T. Edwards (Stanley Foundation, Muscatine, United States of America)

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Galvanizing climate action at all levels
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14:30

Decision-Making under Climate Change: the challenge of linking science, policy and management

R. Gorfinkeil, D. Ryan (Regional Centre for Climate Change and Decision Making, Buenos Aires, Argentina)

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Decision-Making under Climate Change: the challenge of linking science, policy and management
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14:45

Graduated response from the stakeholders to the climate change impacts on water using a vulnerability index combining the uncertainties

T. Pelte (Rhone Mediterranean Corsica water agency, lyon, France)

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Graduated response from the stakeholders to the climate change impacts on water using a vulnerability index combining the uncertainties

T. Pelte (1)
(1) Rhone Mediterranean Corsica water agency, lyon, France

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The Rhone Mediterranean Corsica water agency and the Regional Direction in charge of the environment – the DREAL – have been engaged since 2012 in a common project for climate change adaptation.

 

The work has developed a method to assure a solid “interface” between water policy makers and the scientific and technical fields conducting research on the impacts of climate change.  Key information are provided to planners, water managers and policy makers, on the scientific knowledge that will have an impact on short- and long-term decision making for regional adaptation.

 

The work is organized in three interacting processes : 

  1. the production and gathering of scientific knowledge in order to identify climate change – related phenomena that will impact water management strategies.

 

  1. the building of maps of the Rhone-Mediterranean basin showing regional vulnerabilities to climate change from five points of view : water resources, soil water balance, biodiversity, trophic level of rivers and snow. Each map presents a vulnerability index built for a large scale approach in order to deliver the key information to stakeholders.

 

  1. a short-list of adaptation measures is presented face to each vulnerability map. The measures are graduated according to the level of uncertainties of the vulnerability index.

 

The exercise combines the exposition level to climate change with the sensitivity of the basin. The exposition level is delivered by climate projection results from 7 regionalization methods and 2 hydrological models. The sensitive index is built with technical characteristics of the basin linked to the issue.

 

This exercise is an original approach which combines the bottom-up and top-down approaches that are ordinarily used to build climate change adaptation strategies. The vulnerability index is inspired by the top-down approach and the graduated response by issue is the result of a bottom-up approach connected to the stakeholders. This will allow the project to result in stronger, more efficient messages.

 

This work has been lead under the authority of the Basin Committee, a governance structure that includes all stakeholder groups involved in water policies (State and local governments, urban, industrial and agricultural water users …).

14:55

Sharing local and scientific knowledge for climate change modeling. A case study from an Andalusian olive-growing region (Spain)

M. Cohen (Université Paris Sorbonne, Paris, France), J. Ronchail (LOCEAN and Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France), M. Alonso-Roldán (Associacion Pasos, Participación y Sostenibilidad. , Órgiva , Spain), S. Angles (Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France), E. Araque-Jimenez (Universidad de Jaén, Jaén, Spain), D. Labat (Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France), H. Garcin (Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France), C. Morcel (Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France), B. Sultan (IRD, Paris, France)

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Sharing local and scientific knowledge for climate change modeling. A case study from an Andalusian olive-growing region (Spain)

M. Cohen (1) ; J. Ronchail (2) ; M. Alonso-Roldán (3) ; S. Angles (4) ; E. Araque-Jimenez (5) ; D. Labat (6) ; H. Garcin (7) ; C. Morcel (7) ; B. Sultan (8)
(1) Université Paris Sorbonne, UMR ENeC, Paris, France; (2) LOCEAN and Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France; (3) Associacion Pasos, Participación y Sostenibilidad. , Órgiva , Spain; (4) Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Umr ladyss, Paris, France; (5) Universidad de Jaén, Facultad de geografía, Jaén, Spain; (6) Université de Toulouse, Géosciences environnement toulouse, Toulouse, France; (7) Université Paris-Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Ufr ghss, Paris, France; (8) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France

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Under a research program focused on the adaptability of olive growing systems to climate change in the Sierra Mágina region of Andalusia and under the demand of a local action group, we combined an interdisciplinary approach, collaboration among climatologists, geographers and sociologists, and the participation of local farmers and stakeholders, all contributing their own knowledge. Sierra Mágina is a highly specialized Mediterranean agrarian territory: olive groves represent 85% of cultivated land (in 2006), half of them being irrigated. Our collaboration with stakeholders and farmers developed to the extent that we incorporated the “local knowledge system” in our scientific and modeling process. This incorporation had two objectives: on one hand, we expected that it would promote the buy-in of our projections by local stakeholders and farmers; on the other hand, we expected that local knowledge should help us understand the relationships between olive-growing, climate variability and climate change. This process is suitable for research incorporating complex issues and significant level of uncertainty, which is the case of olive growing adaptability to climate change.

Firstly, we analyzed projections of climate in Sierra Mágina, focusing on the parameters that 9 stakeholders considered as limiting olive growth. We assessed the evolution of rainfall and maximum temperature during the 21st century at the local scale using 17 regional climate models (RCMs) simulations. 15 to 30% rainfall reduction is expected in the fall combined with an 8% annual average reduction by 2030-2050 (verified for 16 and 14 models out of 17, respectively). The projections of the other parameters were more uncertain. Secondly, we observed during interviews with 15 farmers, that they expressed doubt about climate change since they are used to deal with inter-annual climate variability. Consequently, we verified and mapped which parameters of climate and water resources had changed over the last decades and to what extent. Indeed, rainfall decreased by 18% during the period 1955-2009, a more dramatic decrease than the one simulated for the 2030-2050 period (8%). Water resource availability has declined two or three times more than rainfall, in part because of the expansion of irrigation, which ameliorated the effects of droughts and increased profitability.  Those farmers interviewed appeared to be less aware than stakeholders about the decline of water resources.

Thirdly, when we presented the results of the climatic study to local stakeholders, they asked us to determine the impacts of climate change specifically on olive production. These show that the cumulative rainfall of the two years preceding the harvest explains 41% of the variability of irrigated olive-tree yields and 46% of rain-fed yields. This result was unexpected for irrigated yields according to the literature, but some farmers have always known about the dependence of irrigated groves on rainfall. Contrary to local knowledge, biennial (and not seasonal) rainfall is the best yield predictor, due to the biennial fruit bearing of olive-tree. Fourthly, our model, although statistically significant, showed some discrepancies between observed and simulated yield values. We performed other 7 inquiries with olive-growing professionals and farmers to assess the validity of the model with local knowledge.  Once verified the extent of the validity of our model, both statistically and using local knowledge, we projected yields for the future: they are expected to decrease by 7% and 3.5% by 2030-2050 for rain fed and irrigated olive groves. Although this moderate loss should be exacerbated by the expected shortage in water resources, it should allow sufficient time to elaborate a local strategy, particularly for irrigated olive-groves. Unfortunately, most stakeholders think that rainfed trees will better cope with future water shortage than irrigated trees.

The last step of this process consists in sharing our results in a seminar and in an engaging workshop, bringing together scientists, farmers and stakeholders, in order to elaborate jointly climate change adaptation strategies taking into consideration socio-economic challenges. These discussions also aim to build a mitigation strategy, by the recovery of pruning waste (currently burnt), in order to promote the transition to a low carbon territory (ongoing program Olizero).

15:05

The “Soil Carbon Network for sustainable agriculture in Africa”: an open scientific group for a better consideration of CSA in Africa

T. M. Razafimbelo (University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar), Y. N. Badiane (Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Dakar, Senegal), G. Amadji (Université d’Abomey-Calavi , Cotonou, Benin), O. Balarabe (Institut de Recherche Agricole pour le Développement, Libreville, Cameroon), E. Hien (Université de Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), A. Koné (Nangui Abrogoua University , Abidjan, Ivory Coast), H. Konareh (Institut d'Economie Rurale , Bamako, Mali), M. H. Taisso (Université de N’Djamena, N'Djamena, Chad), T. Gallali (Université de Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia), A. Bilgo (Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Niamey, Niger, Republic of), H. Razakamanarivo (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France), E. Blanchart (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Antananarivo, Madagascar), M. Brossard (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France), L. Bockel (FAO, Rome, Italy), M. Bernoux (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France)

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The “Soil Carbon Network for sustainable agriculture in Africa”: an open scientific group for a better consideration of CSA in Africa

TM. Razafimbelo (1) ; YN. Badiane (2) ; G. Amadji (3) ; O. Balarabe (4) ; E. Hien (5) ; A. Koné (6) ; H. Konareh (7) ; MH. Taisso (8) ; T. Gallali (9) ; A. Bilgo (10) ; H. Razakamanarivo (11) ; E. Blanchart (12) ; M. Brossard (11) ; L. Bockel (13) ; M. Bernoux (11)
(1) University of Antananarivo, Laboratoire des RadioIsotopes, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (2) Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles, Dakar, Senegal; (3) Université d’Abomey-Calavi , Faculté des sciences agronomiques, Cotonou, Benin; (4) Institut de Recherche Agricole pour le Développement, Libreville, Cameroon; (5) Université de Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (6) Nangui Abrogoua University , Ufr-sn / center for research in ecology, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (7) Institut d'Economie Rurale , Laboratoire sol-eau-plantes -, Bamako, Mali; (8) Université de N’Djamena, Département de géologie, N'Djamena, Chad; (9) Université de Tunis, Tunis, Tunisia; (10) Centre Régional AGRHYMET, Niamey, Niger, Republic of; (11) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Umr eco&sols, Montpellier, France; (12) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR Eco&Sols, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (13) FAO, Esa, Rome, Italy

Abstract content

Since the food riots in 2008 and 2009 at the international level, some strategies are in place to tackle the problem of food security. As soils are the main support of agricultural activities, it is necessary to preserve them because of their non-renewable status at the scale of a generation, agricultural activities and forest sensu lato.

On the other hand, African agriculture has to face both climates changes which can be a source of many threats and demographic pressure which goes increasingly. Therefore, to feed people, it will be necessary to adopt agricultural practices which preserve soils and the ecosystem services they provide, such as food production and biomass, regulation and filtering of waters, the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, the conservation of biodiversity. Soil organic carbon is recognized as an indicator of fertility and productivity, two essential qualities for the autonomy and the food security of many African countries.

To meet these challenges, the implementation of agriculture that promotes alternative agricultural practices focused on optimal management of organic matter and thus the soil carbon are proposed and considered as an "agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases (mitigation), and enhances achievement of national food security and development goals" according to the FAO.

Many of these practices are already implemented in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) such as agroforestry, zai practices, and conservation agriculture. However, their extent and their efficiency to increase productivity, to be resilient and to mitigate GES need to be documented.

The “Soil Carbon Network for sustainable agriculture in Africa” or CaSA network was created in SSA in order to regroup the African soil scientists working on sustainable agriculture in link with soil organic carbon sequestration at SSA level. This network aimed to:

(1) replace the soil as the central support of production systems;

(2) show that the simple maintenance of soil carbon is essential, especially in arid and semi-arid areas;

(3) quantify the impact of the management practices on carbon sequestration in the soil for the different pedoclimatic African situations;

(4) promote research in connection with civil society and development agencies;

(5) facilitate access of the results of research to policy makers; improve the dissemination to civil society and farmers;

(6) strengthen the capacity of the teams and training expertise.

CasA network regroup more than 15 African and European research institutions distributed among  10 African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Mali, Senegal, Chad, Tunisia, Morocco and Madagascar) and 1 European country (France). An end-product of CaSA will be a book on combined research results of soil organic carbon storage/sequestration in sustainable agriculture at SSA level; it will be presented at the COP21 in Paris.