Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Thursday 9 July - 15:00-16:30 UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 25

3312 - Planning and assessing adaptation: Frameworks, methods and results

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): D. Sietz (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), E. Adere (International Development Research Centre, Nairobi, Kenya)

Convener(s): A. Magnan (IDDRI (Institute for Sustainable Development and International relations), Paris, France, France)

15:00

Diversification: a safety net for Kenya's dryland farmers in the face of climate change

M. Okoti (Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, Nairobi, Kenya), P. Ketiem, (Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya), J. Wamuongo, (Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya), A. Kipkoech, (Eldoret University, Eldoret, Kenya), M. Barare, (Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Institute, Kisii, Kenya)

Abstract details
Diversification: a safety net for Kenya's dryland farmers in the face of climate change

M. Okoti (1) ; P. Ketiem, (2) ; J. Wamuongo, (2) ; A. Kipkoech, (3) ; M. Barare, (4)
(1) Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, Environment and Climate Change Research, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) Eldoret University, Eldoret, Kenya; (4) Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Institute, Kisii, Kenya

Abstract content

Climate change threatens livelihoods of the predominantly pastoral communities in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, making about 50% of households in these areas food insecure. This will worsen given the pressures from climate change, unless there are changes in food production. In adapting to climate change, agro-pastoralism is being embraced. While this shift represents an innovation, the households are exposed to new risks and challenges in securing their livelihoods. This risks include increased drought frequencies, pests and diseases, increased temperatures and erratic rainfall. The main challenges include dwindling land sizes and limited agricultural know-how. The IDRC-funded Agricultural Productivity and Climate Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Kenya project set out to identify suitable crops for local conditions that would be readily acceptable to farmers, and to investigate water efficient farming systems that would be more productive under projected climatic changes. Localised rainfall information for the region was used to indicate current and future rainfall scenarios, forecast the onset of the planting season and identify suitable areas for different adaptation strategies. Working with 240 households, over three years, the project established demonstration field plots and farmer field schools to introduce appropriate climate adaptation strategies. These included drought tolerant crops, cover crops, use of organic and inorganic fertilizer and new production systems. Through the farmer field schools, farmers evaluated crops and assessed their acceptability.  Prior to the project, households had reported a reduction in crop yields over the previous ten years by between 10% and 50%. Project interventions saw households who had planted alternative, drought-tolerant and high yielding crop varieties obtain up to 40% increase in yields. Furthermore, households started to allocate about 10% more of their arable land to food crop production, improving their household food security by 18%. Having boosted crop production, 20% of the households started to supplement their animal feeds with crop residues, increasing their feed supplies by 8%.  There was a decline in the size of their livestock herds as they adopted cropping practices, but increases in crop production compensated for the reduction in livestock-based earnings.  Planting in zai pits reduced crop yield losses during extreme dry weather by up to 40%. Use of organic fertilizers, increased maize yields by 50% in a normal season, fertilizers reduced losses by up to 10% during severe drought and up to 30% during mild drought. By cultivating crops in former livestock pens, production was up to three times more than unfertilized fields, showing the importance of organic fertiliser, as a way to reduce the impacts of climate variability and change. Cost and benefit projections showed that crop diversification would yield over 40 times the investment cost within the first ten years, with the potential of further significant increases in subsequent years.  All targeted households influenced 3-5 other households, significantly increasing the uptake of adaptation strategies and scale of impact. Households with the highest diversity of crops traded in the market more frequently than those with fewer crops. The linkages and support from the County government extension staff greatly promoted the success of the initiatives. The county government committed to invest in competent extension services, farmer field schools and demonstration centers for supporting households in building wealth, growing income and ensuring food and nutritional security.

15:15

Picking mushrooms: how to gather adaptation science, theory and practice in order to assess progress

L. Schipper (Overseas Development Institute, Stockholm Environment Institute, Berkeley, United States of America)

Abstract details
Picking mushrooms: how to gather adaptation science, theory and practice in order to assess progress

L. Schipper (1)
(1) Overseas Development Institute, Stockholm Environment Institute, Berkeley, United States of America

Abstract content

By the 1990s, adaptation scientists had developed a rather sophisticated ‘typology’ of adaptation (see Smit, 1993; Smit et al, 2001), which reflected adaptation’s elusive character.  They showed that adaptation could exist in many different temporal and spatial scales and dimensions of consciousness.  One of the most useful typologies to emerge from this work is the idea of ‘planned’ versus ‘spontaneous’ adaptation, also described as ‘proactive’ vs. ‘reactive’ adaptation.  This distinction has in many ways been the core notion that has given policy makers and practitioners an entry into adaptation.  Yet subsequent scholarship on adaptation has been unable to develop a robust theoretical basis necessary to further a common understanding.  Rather than build on existing knowledge, initiatives, publications and theories have developed in a mushroom-like fashion.  This creates a rift in the three domains of adaptation science-policy-practice.  In this context, this paper asks how measuring adaptation – frameworks and indicators – can be applied when the conceptual underpinnings are debated and questioned. 

15:30

Adaptation tracking at global to regional scales

J. Ford (McGill University, Montreal, Canada), L. Berrang-Ford (McGill University, Montreal, Canada), R. Biesbroek (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands)

Abstract details
Adaptation tracking at global to regional scales

J. Ford (1) ; L. Berrang-Ford (1) ; R. Biesbroek (2)
(1) McGill University, Geography, Montreal, Canada; (2) Wageningen University, Public administration and policy group, Wageningen, Netherlands

Abstract content

Adaptation tracking seeks to characterize, monitor, and compare general trends in climate change adaptation over time and across nations. Recognized as essential for evaluating adaptation progress, there have been few attempts to develop systematic approaches for tracking adaptation, particularly at global to regional scales. This is reflected in polarized opinions, contradictory findings, and lack of understanding on the state of adaptation globally. This presentation will outline key methodological considerations necessary for adaptation tracking research to produce systematic, rigorous, comparable, and usable insights that can capture the current state of adaptation globally, provide the basis for characterizing and evaluating adaptations taking place, facilitate examination of what conditions explain differences in adaptation action across jurisdictions, and can underpin the monitoring of change in adaptation over time. We will use examples from our own work to illustrate approaches to adaptation tracking, including studies examining adaptation globally, in the EU, in the health sector, in urban areas with >1m people, and in ‘hot spot’ regions. The presentation will stress the importance of utilizing a consistent and operational conceptualization of adaptation, focusing on comparable units of analysis, using and developing comprehensive datasets on adaptation action, and being coherent with our understanding of what constitutes ‘real’ adaptation; collectively what we term the ‘4Cs of adaptation tracking.’

15:40

Assessing the climate change adaptive capacity at the city level, a case study: the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile

D. Araya (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom), M. Metzger, (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom), S. Neil (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom), W. Meriwether (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom), Á. Luis (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile)

Abstract details
Assessing the climate change adaptive capacity at the city level, a case study: the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile

D. Araya (1) ; M. Metzger, (1) ; S. Neil (1) ; W. Meriwether (1) ; Á. Luis (2)
(1) University of Edinburgh, Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (2) Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Geografía, Valparaíso, Chile

Abstract content

Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. This research examines the capacity of generic adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA), Chile. A new approach is proposed to assess the urban adaptive capacity which is based on a set of indicators and fuzzy modelling techniques through Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. A general procedure is proposed which provides consistency while allowing the required flexibility for application to cities under conditions of varying urban context, such as: information availability, resources, time, and scale. The factors understood that facilitate or constrain the process of adaptation were identified to revealed the differences between the level of adaptive capacity over time among the municipalities of the CMA. This allowed monitoring of changes in the spatial distribution of the adaptive capacity over time. This is the first extensive quantitative analysis of urban adaptive capacity in Chile.

 

The model of the city's generic adaptive capacity was developed through fuzzy logic operations of ArcGIS software.  This is based on seventeen indicators, derived from data available for all the urban areas in Chile, which are standardized and then aggregated through a stepwise approach into six determinants. These determinants are then aggregated into three components and finally combined to provide an overall generic adaptive capacity index, which was mapped for nine municipalities within the CMA.  The set of urban indicators were selected based on the literature and created using data available at the municipality scale.  As the same indicators were recorded for 1992 and 2002, they can be compared to reveal changes in the indicators over a 10 year period. This allows to understand the past conditions and factors contributing most to positive changes in adaptive capacity over the period, as well as those factors that have changed least.  

 

Over the studied decade, it can be seen that all the municipalities increased their level of adaptive capacity. However, the relative levels of adaptive capacity between the analyzed municipalities did not change significantly, this implied that the large differences observed between the municipalities were maintained over the studied period. The results also shows that municipalities with lower level of adaptive capacity in 1992 presented the highest increases in level of adaptive capacity by 2002. In contrast, those municipalities with highest level of adaptive capacity in 1992 showed less improvement. One interpretation that can be drawn is that economic factors such as the increasing income inequality found particularly in the richest municipalities may actually be reducing the potential for further increasing adaptive capacity in these municipalities. These results suggest that efforts to improve the level adaptive capacity of the municipalities should focus not only on increasing the general adaptive capacity level, but also in reducing the wide disparities observed between municipalities.

 

The resulting indices enable monitoring of changes in the spatial distribution of the adaptive capacity and changes over time across the city.  The resulting maps help identify areas where adaptive capacity is lacking or less developed. This can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas/how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity.  Such discussion can contribute to the climate policy in both city planning and national planning scale, e.g. the Chilean National Adaptation Plan (NAP). It highlights the benefits of modelling using fuzzy sets to future research in the field of vulnerability to climate change since allowed the straightforward standardization and consistent aggregation of indicators. The methodology developed for CMA can be readily applied for other cities in Chile and around the world.

 

15:50

Impact of adaptation strategies on maize productivity under climate change: Empirical evidence from the Senegal River valley

A. Beye (Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA), Dakar, Senegal)

Abstract details
Impact of adaptation strategies on maize productivity under climate change: Empirical evidence from the Senegal River valley

A. Beye (1)
(1) Institut Sénégalais de Recherches Agricoles (ISRA), Bureau d'Analyse macroéconomique (BAME), Dakar, Senegal

Abstract content

Climate change challenges require, at the microeconomic level, the adoption of effective strategies to ensure production performance for achieving food security. Adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector are essential to face issues related to climate change over the coming decades (IPCC 2007). In the literature, economists have mainly focused their interest on the impact of climate change on agriculture (Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw, 1994; Deressa and Hassan, 2009; Deschênes and Greenstone, 2007) while the quantitative analysis of the role of adaptation remains marginally explored (Stern, 2006). In Senegal, food security depends on local agricultural capacity as agriculture, which determines the availability of food is the first element in the food safety chain (FAO, 2012). Maize (Zea mays L) is one of the major food crops in Senegal. This traditional crop has been part of Senegalese consumers' diet for centuries. However, maize cultivation is mainly rainfed. Approximately 40% of the maize growing areas are occasionally confronted with drought stress, with yield losses of 10 to 25% (Boone and al., 2008). To cope with irregular and insufficient rainfall, Senegalese farmers have adopted a range of strategies (NAPA, 2006). This paper's main concern is to identify the different types of adaptation implemented and quantify the impact of those adaptation strategies on maize productivity.

Materials and methods: This study was conducted in the Senegal River Valley which is one of the six agro-ecological zones of the country and where 8% of total arable lands are concentrated. The data used in this study was collected through surveys during the rainy season of 2013. The dataset encompasses 140 farms in the middle and upper Senegal River Valley. First, a frequency analysis is used to determine the adoption rate of coping strategies. Performing a student test, we identified strategies with a significant impact on maize productivity. Econometric estimates were then conducted for those strategies. Second, we used the endogenous switching regression model (Alene and Manyong, 2007, Di Falcao et al, 2010;. Di Falcao and Veronesi, 2011; Akpalu, 2011) to identify the determinants of the decision to adapt a given strategy. The advantage of this model is to allow for full interactions between the implementation of an adaptation strategy and the factors determining productivity. Finally, based on Sajaia and Lokshin (2004), we calculated the expected productivity in both factual and counter-factual groups to determine the impact of adaptation strategies identified on maize productivity.

Results and adaptation policy implications: The results show that 78% of farms in the middle and upper Senegal River Valley use at least one coping strategy. These strategies include the change of seeding date (implemented by 69% of farmers), the use of short cycle varieties (36%), the "cordons pierreux" (1%), the "zai" (3%), the use of trees or shrubs fertilizers (4%), the direct seeding (7%), the use of biomass (1%) and irrigation (2%). The Student test shows that the change of seeding date and the use of short cycle varieties have a positive and significant impact on maize yield. For these two strategies, the differences in yields observed between farmers who adopt a strategy and those who did not is not a hazard. Estimates of endogenous switching regression model highlight the main determinants of the decision to adapt. Farm households that use fertilizers with individual fields are found to be more likely to change the seeding date and use of short cycle varieties. Likewise, farmers who belong to a producer organization are more likely to adopt coping strategies. Therefore, dissemination of these coping strategies would be more efficient through producers' organizations than through extension services that have no impact on the decision to adopt a strategy. Results show also that in the Senegal River Valley, the change of seeding date is the best adaptation strategy to improve the maize productivity in the context of climate change. Indeed, the impact analysis shows that the change of seeding date increases the average productivity of maize by 506 kg/ha, while the use of short cycle varieties only increases it by 247 kg/ha. In terms of adaptation policy we propose the establishment of Climatic Information System which goal would be to provide information about climate to farms through a multi-stakeholder platform gathering both producer's organization and meteorological and extension services to better cope with climate change in Senegal rural area.