Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Tuesday 7 July - 17:00-18:30 UPMC Jussieu - Amphi Herpin

1115 - GHG Monitoring

Parallel Session

Chair(s): F.M. Breon (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France), M. Delmotte, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

17:00

The GOSAT contribution to understanding global concentration distribution and regional fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane over its five-year operation period

T. Yokota, (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), S. Maksyutov (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), N. Kikuchi (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), Y. Yoshida (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), A. Bril (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), M. Inoue, (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), I. Morino, (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), O. Uchino, (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), H. Takagi (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), H.-S. Kim (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), R. Janardanan, (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), D. A. Belikov, (National Institute for Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan), M. Ishizawa (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), M. Saito (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), F. Kawazoe (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), M. Ajiro (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan)

Abstract details
The GOSAT contribution to understanding global concentration distribution and regional fluxes of carbon dioxide and methane over its five-year operation period

T. Yokota, (1) ; S. Maksyutov (1) ; N. Kikuchi (1) ; Y. Yoshida (1) ; A. Bril (1) ; M. Inoue, (1) ; I. Morino, (1) ; O. Uchino, (1) ; H. Takagi (1) ; HS. Kim (1) ; R. Janardanan, (1) ; DA. Belikov, (2) ; M. Ishizawa (1) ; M. Saito (1) ; F. Kawazoe (1) ; M. Ajiro (1)
(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; (2) National Institute for Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract content

The Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) has been operating for more than five-and-a-half years since January 2009. Over that period, the NIES GOSAT Project provided researchers and the general public with the retrieved column-averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) (SWIR Level 2 data products), which helped ascertain the global distributions of the two global warming gases and their variability with time and space. Further, with those concentration data that filled gaps in the existing surface monitoring networks, the monthly estimates of regional sources and sinks of CO2 and CH4 (Level 4 data products) were produced with smaller uncertainties. Although there are some issues still left that need to be handled, such as region- and time-dependent biases and low retrieval success rates over the tropics, the GOSAT Project has contributed significantly to advancing the global carbon cycle studies through providing useful space-based GHG data. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) was launched successfully in July 2014, and now and finally, there are two CO2 monitoring platforms in space, as originally planned ten years ago. GOSAT is expected to operate and continue its observation for the next several years, even after its five-year nominal operation period ended in early 2014. Evaluating and inter-comparing data from the two platforms will yield valuable findings that can further advance the space-based GHG monitoring techniques. We will present the overview of the latest GOSAT data products and some of important research outcomes brought by the GOSAT Research Announcement researchers, and show our views on the future of space-based carbon cycle study by worldwide research collaboration.

17:17

The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS RI) – a European Research Infrastructure on greenhouse gases and the global carbon cycle

W. L. Kutsch (10 Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS RI), Head Office, Helsinki, Finland), A. Vermeulen, (Integrated Carbon Observation System, Carbon Portal, Lund, Sweden), T. Johannessen, (University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway), I. Levin, (Universität Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany), D. Papale, (University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy), L. Rivier, (LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France), A. Watson, (University of East Anglia, Exeter, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS RI) – a European Research Infrastructure on greenhouse gases and the global carbon cycle

WL. Kutsch (1) ; A. Vermeulen, (2) ; T. Johannessen, (3) ; I. Levin, (4) ; D. Papale, (5) ; L. Rivier, (6) ; A. Watson, (7)
(1) 10 Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS RI), Head Office, Helsinki, Finland; (2) Integrated Carbon Observation System, Carbon Portal, Lund, Sweden; (3) University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; (4) Universität Heidelberg, Institut fuer umweltphysik, Heidelberg, Germany; (5) University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy; (6) LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France; (7) University of East Anglia, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Greenhouse gases contribute to radiative forcing and therefore their concentrations in the atmosphere influence climate of the Earth. The mission of ICOS RI is enabling research for understanding present state and predicting future behavior of the global carbon cycle and greenhouse gas emissions. ICOS RI does this by providing long-term observations through a distributed infrastructure with station networks designed to monitor GHG concentrations in the lower atmosphere and ocean as well as GHG exchange between terrestrial ecosystems or oceans and the atmosphere. By knowing the dynamics of GHG in the atmosphere and their fluxes, ICOS RI will provide independent data to improve and verify GHG emission inventories for international conventions.

This fusion of streams of (big) data from observational infrastructures with advanced earth system models is the next step in developing integrated knowledge on global carbon and greenhouse gas budgets. By using the complex model-data fusion systems currently under development, these observations will enable us to verify greenhouse gas fluxes on regional and national levels at unprecedented resolution in time and space.

17:29

Potential of in-service aircraft based greenhouse gas observations within IAGOS for constraining regional carbon budgets

S. Verma (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany), J. Marshall (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany), C. Roedenbeck (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany), C. Gerbig (Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany)

Abstract details
Potential of in-service aircraft based greenhouse gas observations within IAGOS for constraining regional carbon budgets

S. Verma (1) ; J. Marshall (1) ; C. Roedenbeck (1) ; C. Gerbig (1)
(1) Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Biogeochemical Systems, Jena, Germany

Abstract content

Spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations contain information about their sources and sinks as well as the exchange processes between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. However, the potential use of these  observations in inverse models for accurate estimation of surface fluxes is hindered by the fact that they are both insufficent and unevenly distributed. The use of passenger aircraft for obtaining information about atmospheric composition and physical and chemical processes is a relatively new concept. Within the recently established European Research Infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System), highly accurate and precise in-situ observation of greenhouse gases is foreseen in the near future. Detailed and continuous measurements are made during long distance flights by hi-tech instruments deployed on board, thus providing a view of the horizontal and vertical distribution of the measured trace gases on global scale and over long periods of time. The project IGAS  (IAGOS for GMES Atmospheric Service) serves as a vital link between the data collected on board civil aircraft through IAGOS and the Copernicus atmosphere monitoring service (previously known as GMES) that utilizes these measurements for applications in the field of modeling, weather forecasting and air quality forecasting.

This study is focussed on assessing the impact of measurements from IAGOS on the constraint on the regional carbon budget and quantifying the reduction in uncertainty in the inverse source-sink estimates of CO2 and CH4, brought about by the use of this newly developed data stream. Anticipating the deployment of five GHG observing systems within IAGOS, the flight tracks from five in-service aircraft within MOZAIC (Measurement of OZone and water vapour by AIrbus in-service airCraft), a predecessor project of IAGOS, are used in an inversion system to assess the constraint on the carbon budget and quantify the potential for reduction in posterior flux uncertainties. These measurement locations and times are used to evaluate the impact of data from aircraft on the reduction of flux uncertainties compared to that based on the existing global observation network, and furthermore to identify areas where the addition of these measurements would be of greatest impact. We use the Jena Inversion System that employs the Global Atmospheric Tracer Model TM3 for atmospheric transport, focussing on the period 1996-2004. The vertical aircraft profiles are input into the inversion as two partial-column averages instead of point measurements, the lower partial column completely containing (and exceeding) the boundary layer. This is a novel approach, the advantage being that the error due to imperfect model representation of the boundary layer height and hence the vertical tracer transport near the surface can be diminished, which results in the reduction of the overall model-data mismatch error. The experimental design is such that in each simulation the existing measurement network is augmented by pseudo-observations from up to five simulated IAGOS aircraft. Uncertainty reduction from each of these simulations is compared to the uncertainty reduction from simulations employing only the existing observation network. We find that for both CO2 and CH4, the additional constraint on the carbon budget brought about by the use of IAGOS measurements is highest for the tropical regions, the magnitude of the change in uncertainty reduction being about 20 percent.

17:41

Cost-effective guidelines for measurement of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and removals

M. Richards (CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Burlington, VT, United States of America), T. Rosenstock (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya), K. Butterbach-Bahl, (International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya), M. Rufino (CIFOR / CCAFS, Nairobi, Kenya), E. Wollenberg, (Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, Vermont, United States of America)

Abstract details
Cost-effective guidelines for measurement of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and removals

M. Richards (1) ; T. Rosenstock (2) ; K. Butterbach-Bahl, (3) ; M. Rufino (4) ; E. Wollenberg, (5)
(1) CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Low Emissions Agriculture, Burlington, VT, United States of America; (2) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya; (3) International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), Nairobi, Kenya; (4) CIFOR / CCAFS, Nairobi, Kenya; (5) Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, School of environment and natural resources, Vermont, United States of America

Abstract content

As COP21 approaches, many non-Annex 1 countries are for the first time developing mitigation targets in the form of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions. Mitigation activities in the agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) sector are likely to be in developing countries because they provide up to 70% of the technical potential for AFOLU-based mitigation. However, decision-makers in these countries are currently limited by the lack of scientific information on emissions and mitigation potentials from the agricultural systems common in tropical developing countries.

For example, direct measurements of methane from livestock—perhaps the most significant agricultural GHG source in sub-Saharan Africa—are lacking. Measurements of soil carbon sinks from land rehabilitation and carbon storage in aboveground woody biomass are also notable gaps. The emission factors and models used in the absence of such data (IPCC Tier 1) rely on measurements largely from temperate, developed countries and their precision and accuracy in tropical developing countries is unknown.

Here we describe the SAMPLES measurement guidelines and data platform, two web-based resources for improving the availability of agricultural GHG information from tropical developing countries. Developed by scientists within the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS), the guidelines provide a critical assessment of various methods that can be used to quantify GHG emissions within a developing country context. As the cost of measurement is often a constraint, the guidelines compare the available methods for each GHG driver (e.g., land use change) and source (e.g., soil emission or biomass accumulation) in terms of cost and accuracy. They recommend methods that produce reliable, robust data considering factors common to developing country farming systems such as heterogeneity of farming systems and seasonality of feed supply and quality (e.g. for enteric methane emissions). The guidelines also emphasize informed sampling design in order to aggregate GHG measurements to larger scales without unnecessary replication of measurement.

The SAMPLES data platform is the first international, publicly accessible compilation of GHG flux and carbon stock change data from tropical developing countries. While it is currently houses data from CCAFS experiments in several countries, the data platform is open to contributions from agricultural emissions studies worldwide. The platform provides a resource for compilers of national inventories, designers of monitoring and verification systems and researchers to share and access data for developing Tier 2 emission factors and calibrating models.

These two new resources provide decision-makers and the global scientific community with a means of developing and sharing the information necessary to assess, monitor and verify the GHG impacts of agricultural policies and technologies.

17:53

Reconstruction of super resolution oceanic pCO2 from remotely sensed data and multiresolution analysis: an application in the South Eastern Atlantic

V. Garçon (CNRS, Toulouse Cedex 9, France), I. Hernandez-Carrasco (CNRS, Toulouse Cedex 9, France), J. Sudre (CNRS, Toulouse Cedex 9, France), H. Yahia (INRIA, Bordeaux, France), C. Garbe (University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany), A. Paulmier (IRD, Toulouse Cedex 9, France), B. Dewitte (IRD, Toulouse Cedex 9, France), S. Illig (IRD, Toulouse Cedex 9, France)

Abstract details
Reconstruction of super resolution oceanic pCO2 from remotely sensed data and multiresolution analysis: an application in the South Eastern Atlantic

V. Garçon (1) ; I. Hernandez-Carrasco (1) ; J. Sudre (1) ; H. Yahia (2) ; C. Garbe (3) ; A. Paulmier (4) ; B. Dewitte (4) ; S. Illig (4)
(1) CNRS, LEGOS, Toulouse Cedex 9, France; (2) INRIA, Geostat, Bordeaux, France; (3) University of Heidelberg, Interdisciplinary center for scientific computing, Heidelberg, Germany; (4) IRD, Legos, Toulouse Cedex 9, France

Abstract content

The knowledge of green house gases (GHG) fluxes at the air–sea interface at high resolution is crucial to accurately quantify the role of the ocean in the absorption and emission of GHGs. We present here a novel method to reconstruct maps of surface ocean partial pressure of CO2, pCO2, and air–sea CO2 fluxes at super resolution (4 km) using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Ocean Colour (OC) data at this resolution, and CarbonTracker CO2 fluxes data at low resolution (110 km). Inference of super-resolution of pCO2, and air–sea CO2 fluxes is performed using novel nonlinear signal processing methodologies that prove efficient in the context of oceanography. The theoretical background comes from the Microcanonical Multifractal Formalism which unlocks the geometrical determination of cascading properties of physical intensive variables. As a consequence, a multiresolution analysis performed on the signal of the so-called singularity exponents allows the correct and near optimal cross-scale inference of GHGs fluxes, as the inference suits the geometric realization of the cascade. We apply such a methodology to the study offshore of the Benguela upwelling system. The inferred representation of oceanic partial pressure of CO2 improves and enhances the description provided by CarbonTracker, capturing the small scale variability. The methodology is validated using in-situ measurements by means of statistical errors.  Mean absolute and relative errors in the inferred values of pCO2 with respect to in-situ measurements are smaller than for CarbonTracker.The potential of the approach with other gases such as DMS is illustrated.

18:05

Top down estimates of the European emissions of hydrofluorocarbons and comparison with bottom up inventories

M. Maione (University of Urbino, Urbino, Italy), F. Graziosi, (University of Urbino, Urbino, Italy), U. Giostra, (University of Urbino, Urbino, Italy), J. Arduini, (University of Urbino, Urbino, Italy), F. Furlani, (University of Urbino, Urbino, Italy), P. Bonasoni, (National Research Council, Bologna, Italy)

Abstract details
Top down estimates of the European emissions of hydrofluorocarbons and comparison with bottom up inventories

M. Maione (1) ; F. Graziosi, (1) ; U. Giostra, (1) ; J. Arduini, (1) ; F. Furlani, (1) ; P. Bonasoni, (2)
(1) University of Urbino, Basic Sciences and Foundations, Urbino, Italy; (2) National Research Council, Institute for the study of the atmosphere and climate, Bologna, Italy

Abstract content

Hydrofluorocarbons are strong greenhouse gases included in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol.

Under the Protocol, Parties are required to submit to UNFCCC their annual emission inventories. Such emissions are normally assessed through “bottom-up” methods aggregating various local statistics. However, emissions measured by their accumulation in the atmosphere, can significantly disagree with reported bottom‐up emissions.

Top-down emission estimates based on in situ long-term high frequency observations combined with inverse modelling have proved to be a powerful and important tool for the quantification of emissions and the verification of bottom-up inventories for many trace gases. Here we present regional (European) emission estimates of nine hydrofluorcarbons characterised by extremely high Glabal Warming Potentials (GWPs).

Emissions estimates are obtained  through a combination of observations and models. For this study we used high frequency, long term observations conducted via gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in four WMO-GAW Global stations in Europe that are part of the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network. The obtained data undergo a rigorous quality control, following the procedures adopted within AGAGE. FLEXPART 20-d backward trajectories  and a Bayesian inversion method are then used in order to derive annual emissions from the European Geographic Domain, divided into eight macro-regions, strarting from 2001 onward.

Then, we compared our estimates with the bottom-up inventories submitted by the single countrie to the UNFCCC. Such comparison revealed not negligible discrepancies between the inversion results and the inventories, thus showing the effectiveness of this approch as a verification tool for declared emissions

The estimates provided by this analysis are relevant non only for constraining the atmospheric budget of these gases on a regional scale, but also also to improve the accuracy of their emissions quantification on a global scale.

18:17

Observational Determination of Surface Radiative Forcing by CO2 and CH4

W. Collins (UC Berkeley / Berkeley Laboratory, Berkeley, California, United States of America), D. Feldman (Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, California, United States of America), M. S. Torn (Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, California, United States of America)

Abstract details
Observational Determination of Surface Radiative Forcing by CO2 and CH4

W. Collins (1) ; D. Feldman (2) ; MS. Torn (2)
(1) UC Berkeley / Berkeley Laboratory, Earth & Planetary Science / Climate Sciences, Berkeley, California, United States of America; (2) Berkeley Lab, Climate sciences, Berkeley, California, United States of America

Abstract content

Earth's background atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations have been steadily rising due to anthropogenic emissions, and these increases since 1750 have implications for the radiative balance of the Earth's atmosphere. The physics governing how atmospheric CO2 and CH4, both well-mixed greenhouse gases

(WMGHGs), influence atmospheric infrared energy balance, and thus climate, are well established, but the impact of recent atmospheric WMGHG trends on the surface energy balance has not been experimentally confirmed in the field. Using infrared WMGHG absorption bands and controlling for atmospheric temperature and water vapor, spectra from the DOE ARM Program's Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometers (AERI) yield the first direct observational evidence of the time-series of WMGHG surface radiative forcing directly attributable to recent increases in WMGHGs, in this case between 2000-2010. The time-series shows a secular trend of in the radiative forcing from both CO2 and CH4. This data record provides the first comprehensive observational evidence of upward trends in surface radiative forcing by WMGHGs, confirming theoretical predictions of the anthropogenic atmospheric greenhouse effect.  These data support predictions of enhancements to the greenhouse effect from future WMGHG emissions.