Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Wednesday 8 July - 17:30-19:00 UPMC Jussieu - ROOM 101 - Block 24/34

2233 - Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: International and Urban approaches

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): M. Leitner (Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria), F. Musco (Università IUAV di Venezia, Venice, Italy)

17:30

Linkage between DRR and CCA

M. Van Aalst (Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands)

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Linkage between DRR and CCA
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17:45

PLACARD: building a platform for CCA and DRR cooperation by 2020

M. Pulquerio (Faculty of Science, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal), T. Capela Lourenço (Faculty of Science, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal), P. Pringle (UK Climate Impacts Programme , Oxford , United Kingdom), R. Schwarze (UFZ, Leipzig, Germany)

Abstract details
PLACARD: building a platform for CCA and DRR cooperation by 2020

M. Pulquerio (1) ; T. Capela Lourenço (1) ; P. Pringle (2) ; R. Schwarze (3)
(1) Faculty of Science, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal; (2) UK Climate Impacts Programme , School of geography and the environment, Oxford , United Kingdom; (3) UFZ, Leipzig, Germany

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Significant challenges exist towards strengthening the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) communities for coherent, mutually and pragmatic planning and action. While efforts to increase complementarity continue, much work is still required to coordinate and integrate the two domains. Within the complex landscape of research and policy initiatives of these two areas various international and European efforts have been undertaken to better integrate CCA and DRR, and thus minimize the current and future risks presented by climate change in the context of extremes. Paradoxically, the past decade has seen a major fragmentation of CCA and DRR agendas, particularly at the level of research, policy, knowledge and practices. International frameworks, political processes, funding mechanisms, information exchange fora and practitioner communities have largely developed separately and operated in isolation from one another.

PLACARD is a newly funded Horizon 2020 European project that seeks to support the coordination between these two communities. PLACARD will tackle current challenges by 1) providing a common ‘space’ where CCA and DRR communities can come together, share experiences and create opportunities for collaboration; 2) facilitating communication and knowledge exchange between both communities; and 3) supporting the coordination and coherence of CCA and DRR research, policy and practice. PLACARD’s approach to achieving these goals is to establish a strong and operational network of networks by connecting to existing networks and boundary organisations, to foster dialogue among stakeholders (e.g. researchers, research funders, policymakers, practitioners) engaged in CCA and DRR at the international, European, national and sub-national scales. This overarching network will enable these communities to share knowledge, to discuss challenges and to jointly co-produce options to bridge the gaps they experience. It will support the development and implementation of a research and innovation agenda to make better use of research funding, as well as to develop guidelines to strengthen relevant institutions in their efforts to mainstream CCA and DRR.

18:00

Adoption as Adaptation! Long-term consequences of cyclone disaster in coastal Bangladesh

Z. Sultana (Coastal Research Foundation (CRF), Khulna, Bangladesh), B. Mallick, (Vanderbilt University, Nashville, United States of America)

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Adoption as Adaptation! Long-term consequences of cyclone disaster in coastal Bangladesh

Z. Sultana (1) ; B. Mallick, (2)
(1) Coastal Research Foundation (CRF), Environmental science discipline, khulna university, Khulna, Bangladesh; (2) Vanderbilt University, Political science, Nashville, United States of America

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Disaster risk reduction strategies and adaptation practices vary from region to region and community to community, for example, the practices of southern part of Bangladesh are different from the northern part. The sustainable disaster risk reduction strategies or adaptation practices of one region may be not be replicable to another region or community but the learnings from each strategies can introduce a new one that is adoptable to the other region. Therefore, this research aimed at to identify the short-term and long-term adopted strategies that are practicing after a devastated cyclone in southwest coastal Bangladesh. It is given that, in coastal areas people live under the constant threats of natural hazards. Thus raise the questions: how they react to the risk of those natural calamities and how they adapt with the adverse situations that derived by those calamities. Particularly, this research has empirically explored community level practices in agriculture, housing, water resources, communication and employment generations in Bangladesh.

The empirical research was designed with a mixed-methods approach: (1) content analysis of face-to-face interview of 145 respondents by using semi-structured questionnaire with selected social groups and their households’ assistants; (2) contingent debates concerning the local attitude and perception for the improvement of their livelihood, which was understood as a case-study of livelihood complexities in coastal areas. Therefore, Focus Group Discussion (FGD) was conducted with three different groups: farmers, fishermen and general people. Key informant interviewers (KII) were: chairman of the Union, Upazila Agricultural officer, Upazila Fisheries Officer, NGO Representatives. Sector wise disaster risk reduction strategies and adaptation practices are recognized by the discussion with the FGD participants.

Results show that people have to start cultivating saline tolerant rice and vegetables on raised homestead instead of traditional rice varieties, as a consequences of saline intrusion after cyclone Aila.  They were using dripping irrigation methods and rain water harvesting and artificial aquifer tube-well were introduced for water management. Mud wall of the houses were replaced by or even built newly with Goran wood or bamboo sticks. They have to start forming groups to save money for next disaster and taking credit for small entrepreneurship. Due to the crises of fodder, pastureland and freshwater people was forced to rear small animals and birds like sheep, goat and pigeon instead of cow and buffalo rearing. New technology based shrimp farming also has been started.

Besides, an external aid must not be the only solution to increase the coping capacity of a community, and thus to develop a resilient one. Likewise, the measures/strategies are identified that were taken by various actors based on their existing socio-economic conditions and both positive and negative consequences of those adopted strategies are discussed. The pros-and-cons of each adopted strategies states the interests of the different actors behind the respective strategy. It also explore that such adopted strategies in the long-run will be seen as traditional form of adaptation option for them. This study is therefore be of importance for regional planners and policy makers help to develop a comprehensive disaster management plan that is helpful in building resilience in the affected communities.

18:15

Early Warning Systems - seamless between Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate change Adaption

J. Thielen-Del Pozo (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy), P. Barbosa, (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy), L. Feyen, (JRC, Ispra, Italy), P. Salamon, (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy), M. J. San (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy), J. Vogt, (European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy)

Abstract details
Early Warning Systems - seamless between Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate change Adaption

J. Thielen-Del Pozo (1) ; P. Barbosa, (1) ; L. Feyen, (2) ; P. Salamon, (1) ; MJ. San (1) ; J. Vogt, (1)
(1) European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy; (2) JRC, Ispra, Italy

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Our climates change continuously, due both to natural causes and as a result of human activities. There is a growing consensus in the scientific and policy communities that the consequences of worldwide industrialisation and rapid urbanisation are also affecting our climates. Increase in global temperature may have impact on frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, sea level rise, as well as shortages of food and water, just to name a few examples. Consequences of climate change constitute, under present and future climates, a threat to the more developed countries such as Europe, but even more so an obstacle to poverty reduction and stability in less developed countries.  In already fragile regions and countries, climate driven disasters can negatively influence development, security and stability and thus reduce resilience.

 

Therefore, joint efforts between scientists and policy makers are needed to find feasible solutions to keep climate change within manageable limits, to assess adaptation strategies to minimise negative impacts, and to develop early warning systems to reduce the residual risks associated with extreme weather events.  Early warning systems contribute to anticipation of the event, allow decision makers to take appropriate actions to reduce the impact.

 

The JRC has been developing continental systems for monitoring and forecasting floods, droughts and forest fires which will be illustrated in the presentation: the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) has been developed since 2003 following the devastating Elbe and Danube floods which highlighting the need for European solutions to be prepared for cross-border events. EFAS provides twice daily information on ongoing and expected floods up to 10 days in advance to the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) of the European Commission and the National Hydrological Services. The European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), initiated in 1998, aims at providing harmonized information on forest fires in Europe. EFFIS   provides the European Commission services, the European Parliament and the forest fire services in the countries with harmonized information on forest fires. Both EFAS and EFFIS have become integral part of the COPERNICUS emergency management service, one of six operational services under the EU Copernicus space programme.  Furthermore, the JRC has been developing a prototype of a European Drought Observatory (EDO) which is to providing in pre-operational timely and consistent information on droughts in Europe. EDO allows to monitor, detect, forecast, and assess drought situations throughout Europe, serving as a platform for information exchange between various stakeholders. After all systems have demonstrated their added value for cross-border management of severe events, they are now being expanded experimentally to global scale.

 

While the focus of the systems is to monitoring and forecast floods, droughts and forest fire events in Europe and globally they also represent a framework for further studies on assessing past and future trends, scenario modelling with regard to different drivers, management plans and potential adaptation measures. By promoting seamless forecasting from now-casting to seasonal and longer time scales the systems can be useful for both climate change adaptation as well as disaster risk reduction at different levels. The presentation will illustrate how these systems, in partnership with leading organisations and international initiatives and programmes, have the potential to contribute to both disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation studies in a multi-hazard framework.

18:30

Participatory socioeconomic scenario development as building block of a local risk management tool to climate change adaptation - an Alpine test-site in the East-Tyrol, Austria

I. Meyer (Austrian Institute of Economic Research - WIFO, Vienna, Austria), B. Eder (AlpS, Innsbruck, Austria), A. M. Hama (alpS Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria), M. Leitner (Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria)

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Participatory socioeconomic scenario development as building block of a local risk management tool to climate change adaptation - an Alpine test-site in the East-Tyrol, Austria

I. Meyer (1) ; B. Eder (2) ; AM. Hama (3) ; M. Leitner ()
(1) Austrian Institute of Economic Research - WIFO, environment, energy, agriculture, Vienna, Austria; (2) AlpS, Innsbruck, Austria; (3) alpS Centre for Climate Change Adaptation, Innsbruck, Austria

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In Austria as elsewhere, extreme events such as heavy precipitation, storms, debris flows and floods are expected to show fundamental changes with respect to magnitude, frequency and duration caused by climate change. Today, risks associated with climate change are mostly still understood and analyzed in a sector- and hazard- specific and rarely in a dynamic, scenario-based manner. The project ARISE (Adaptation and Decision Support via Risk Management Through Local Burning Embers) develops a decision support system for climate-sensitive iterative risk management as a key adaptation tool for the local level. One of the building blocks of ARISE are socioeconomic scenarios that capture main features of the future local economy. Regional socioeconomic scenarios are the pillars to identify future climate related risks and thus to shape disaster risk reduction and risk management which support the building of resilience and adaptation capacities at the local level. The scenarios are based on the current state and trends of sector developments in employment and value creation in the test-site City of Lienz and its surroundings in the East-Tyrol. They include drivers such as demography, a story line and a vision into the future. Scenarios were developed using a participatory approach. Participatory approaches are increasingly recognized as an important element of management and decision-making. There are various reasons why to pursue a participatory approach. For instance, problems in today’s world are complex and require knowledge from many different domains and disciplines; participation is said to be a process of collective learning that changes the way people think and act. The paper presents results of two socioeconomic scenarios that were developed using insights from stakeholders and decision-makers of the City of Lienz as well as scientific findings from available data sets and the literature, i.e. a “boom” and a “bust” scenario. Categories of drivers of socioeconomic scenarios discussed during the scenario workshop cover inter alia institutions and socio-political frameworks, demographics, production and demand, markets and trade, scientific and technological innovations, and value systems. Based on empirical data on local employment we identified 6 relevant sectors of the local economy with specific trend developments that served as framework to discuss scenarios: 1) infrastructure and natural hazards, 2) tourism, 3) industry and manufacturing, 4) agriculture and forestry, 5) politics and the administration, and 6) health, education and other services. As the City of Lienz is situated south of the main Alpine ridge in the East-Tyrol it is characterized as peripheral region with population loss in the recent past. One of the major challenges for conceiving a “boom”-scenario was thus to imagine the region to become attractive for well educated people. Last but not least, another feature of the participatory scenario workshop was to communicate knowledge from science to local decision-makers. Regional climate scenarios, socioeconomic data and projections as well as a summary of perceived current climate-related risks were presented. The latter were gathered by subjective expert reasoning (personal interviews) with stakeholders from the region. Participation thus incorporated a two-way information exchange, from science to practice and from practice to science. The presentation will finally give a perspective on the development of the climate related risk management tool.

18:45

GIS-based Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of the Municipality of Del Carmen, Surigao del Norte Province, Philippines

D. Racelis, (University of the Philippines Los Banos, College, Laguna, Philippines), E. Racelis (University of the Philippines Los Banos, College, Laguna, Philippines), A. Limpiada (University of the Philippines Los Banos, College, Laguna, Philippines)

Abstract details
GIS-based Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of the Municipality of Del Carmen, Surigao del Norte Province, Philippines

D. Racelis, (1) ; E. Racelis (1) ; A. Limpiada (1)
(1) University of the Philippines Los Banos, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, College, Laguna, Philippines

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A GIS-based mapping and assessment was conducted to determine the vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and climate risks of ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure in the municipality of Del Carmen, Surigao del Norte Province, Philippines. The study involved collaboration with bio-physical and socio-economic survey teams in undertaking qualitative and quantitative assessment of resources and their capacities against climate-related hazards. It also included assessment of past and present impacts of climate change vulnerability in the project areas and assessed and prioritized adaptation strategies, and identified gaps/needs in the implementation of the selected strategies.

 

Approximately equal number of hectares are exposed to either high (6,340 ha) or low risk (6,039 ha) to drought. In particular, Brgy. San Fernando has the largest area exposed to high risk with 1,186 ha of uncultivated lands.  For cultivated lands, Brgy. Bagakay has the largest area exposed to high risk with 232 ha. In terms of exposure, Brgy. Mahayahay has the highest with 100% of its land area exposed to high risk. In contrast, Brgy. Caub and Brgy. Lobogon have the lowest exposure to the risk.

 

Further, analysis shows that around 137 ha of populated areas which is about 1% of the total land area of the municipality of Del Carmen are exposed to very high risk to rain-induced landslide. These areas are mostly located in Brgys. Caub, Mahayahay, Quezon, San Fernando, and Tuboran. Likewise, about 1,644 ha (14%) of unpopulated areas are also exposed to such risk. Further, around 31 ha and 79 ha of populated areas have moderately high to moderately low risk to landslide, respectively. However, it should be emphasized that more than 8,792 ha (71%) have no risk to landslide. Further, the safest area as far as risk to landslide is concerned is Brgy. Del Carmen with virtually no areas exposed to the hazard.

 

Moreover, around 143 ha (1.1%) of the municipality are exposed to low to medium risk to storm surge. These are obviously confined to coastal areas. Brgy. Del Carmen has the largest populated area exposed to medium risk with 49.3 ha while Brgy. San Fernando has 1,024 ha of unpopulated areas exposed to the same risk. Spatial analysis also shows that Brgys. Concohoy, Lobogon, Mahayahay, Quezon and Tuboran are virtually free from risk to storm surge. The condition is due to the fact that these barangays are mostly located in the higher elevation section of the municipality