Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Thursday 9 July - 13:00-18:00 UNESCO Fontenoy - MIRO

Posters (list of concernned Posters available here)

Poster

Carbon issues for power systems: a french-US crossed contribution

N. Maïzi (PSL, MINES ParisTech, Paris, France), D. Kammen (University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States of America)

Abstract details
Carbon issues for power systems: a french-US crossed contribution

N. Maïzi (1) ; D. Kammen (2)
(1) PSL, MINES ParisTech, Mathematics and Systems, Center for Applied Mathematics, Paris, France; (2) University of California Berkeley, Energy and resources group, Berkeley, United States of America

Abstract content

Spurred by the need to address climate change while promoting economic vitality and sustainability requires a new class of energy system models that facilitate a dialog between mathematical approaches to economics, public policy and strategic thinking.  This approach ideally affords a platform to integrate equally technical and social perspectives on energy systems, something that has proven particularly difficult in the past for a variety of data, analytic, and conceptual reasons.  While models are inherently inaccurate representations of natural and social processes, we have found considerable value in comparative ‘model complements’ where different approaches are brought into dialog.  To accomplish this, our two teams, based at the Ecole des Mines de Paris and at the University of California, Berkeley have initiated this comparison and conversation. The two platforms TIMES and SWITCH respectively permit different visualizations of energy choices and scenarios. These prospective modelling tools are a heritage of a long tradition of tools first created in the 1960’s from the dialogue between mathematicians and economists and based on a concept of optimality. The way they support the scoping of policies on energy and climate is based on the following: a vision of transforming technical systems with the idea of an optimal timetable for employing technologies in decreasing order of merit. This can be skewed by the introduction of the internal cohesion of the energy system at technical level and, as a result, inertia, the technological barriers to remove, the benefits in endogenous learning and the macroeconomic costs of support policies are addressed.

This contribution aims to bring together parallel developments of a prospective landscape dedicated to the power sector, considered as the first GHG emitter across the world. This will bring first elements to understand to what extent technological solutions can be brought as global solutions across regions and over the long term: namely the potential of smart grid solutions as demand response, flexibility options, spread of renewable energy, and what could be their limits, if some exist.

This approach is particularly relevant to go beyond opposing theses, either for instance considering that renewable energy sources should only be used when they are competitive, or setting ambitious short- and mid-term penetration targets to bring down the cost of renewables based on technical and institutional learning processes.

This comparison will allow a greater understanding of the way long term prospective models developed in the US and in France, envisage the way countries face energy and climate long-term issues. 

High-Resolution Modeling of China's Power Sector with a Particular Focus on Advanced Nuclear Technologies

A.-P. Avrin (University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America)

Abstract details
High-Resolution Modeling of China's Power Sector with a Particular Focus on Advanced Nuclear Technologies

AP. Avrin (1)
(1) University of California, Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States of America

Abstract content

Today, China’s electric power sector accounts for 50% of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions and 12.5% of total global emissions. The transition from the current fossil-fuel-dominated electricity supply and delivery system to a sustainable, resource-wise system will shape how the country, and to a larger extent, the world, addresses local pollution and global climate change. While coal is the dominant primary energy source today, rapid ongoing technological changes coupled with strategic national investments in transmission capacity and new nuclear, solar and wind generation demonstrate that China has the capacity to completely alter the current trajectory. For the past decades, the country’s nuclear fleet has consisted in a dozen coastal water-cooled nuclear reactors using an open fuel cycle. In addition to strong nuclear research and development programs, China’s increasing deployment of renewable energies and ambitious environmental targets towards sustainability make the extent and the nature of the role of nuclear in the power sector more unclear than ever. We present an integrated model of the Chinese power sector to analyze the prospects of implementing various energy transition scenarios. SWITCH, a high resolution modeling tool under development at the University of California, Berkeley, is used to analyze least-cost generation, storage, and transmission capacity expansion pathways for the electricity mix. Using the recent announcement made by President Xi Jinping to bring the country’s carbon emissions to a peak by 2030 as a framework to assess potential future profiles for the energy mix, we show that building up to 380 GW of nuclear capacity by 2030 is part of the optimal, least expensive trajectory for the power sector. While the construction of such a large fleet of reactors in about 15 years might be challenging, it proves that nuclear cannot be excluded from discussions regarding long-term planning of the electric power sector in China. Using SWITCH, we also find that a carbon price of ~$40/tCO2 would achieve the 2030 carbon peak. Such a figure has a direct impact on the level of renewables and nuclear deployment in the country and, as a consequence, on the specific reactor technologies and fuel cycle options to be developed. In particular, we investigate the role of fast-neutron reactors as part of a national plan to close the nuclear fuel cycle and present resulting pathways for Generation IV technology deployment, according to different trajectories for CO2 emissions reduction targets and costs evolution by 2050, and different levels of variable renewable energy integration.

Integrating household behavior and heterogeneity into long-term energy planning models: The TIMES-Households framework

J.M. Cayla (EDF, Les Renardières, France)

Abstract details
Integrating household behavior and heterogeneity into long-term energy planning models: The TIMES-Households framework

JM. Cayla (1)
(1) EDF R&D, Paris, France

Abstract content

The importance of household behavior in energy consumption is regularly raised in literature. The need to take household behavior into account and to introduce heterogeneity into economy-energy models is also generally pointed out, underlining the limitations of classic models that represent energy demand by a single mean household[1][2]. In their well-known “energy paradox” article, Jaffe & Stavins[3] single out household heterogeneity as one of the main “market barriers” to energy efficiency. Similarly, heterogeneity orientates the dispersion of household behavior in terms of energy consumption and equipment purchases. Thus in order to provide useful insights to public policy debates using prospective studies, we should also consider this household heterogeneity as a kind of “model barrier” that could prevent modelers from correctly apprehending reality.

Nevertheless energy-economy long-term planning models still often represent energy demand by a single mean household and thus fail to capture household behavior. Indeed, many models developed using the TIMES modeling framework[4] are often technology oriented and provide a very detailed list of equipments on the supply side. Whereas the demand side generally consists in a single mean household with a unique level of demand for energy services. This lack of detail on the demand side usually leads to unrealistic results, especially in terms of technology diffusion. Indeed in these models small price increases may then lead to no impact or sudden technological change, sometimes called “bang-bang” effects.

We here describe the original modeling approach developed within the MARKAL-TIMES  model framework in order to take household behavior and heterogeneity into account: the TIMES-Households model. This model depicts both household daily energy consumption and equipment purchasing behavior and focuses on the French residential and transport sectors. We show the importance of taking household heterogeneity into account in long-term planning models within the comparison of two energy price scenarios applied to two different models. Thanks to the highly disaggregated representation of households and their behavior in the model, we address the problem of unrealistic technology diffusion pathways often obtained when using an optimization bottom-up model. We also are able to address burden sharing issues which are very common and major issues related to the implementation of decarbonized sustainable pathways. Indeed our model helps quantifying the impact of energy polices such as carbon taxes, tax rebates or bonus/malus systems on household budget in term of investment expenditures and energy bill.

 

[1] Moezzi, M., Iyer, M., Lutzenhiser, L., Woods, J. 2009, “Behavioral assumptions in energy efficiency potential studies”, Report prepared for CIEE Behavior and Energy Program, Oakland, California

 

[2] Jackson, T. 2005 “Motivating sustainable consumption. A review of evidence on consumer behaviour and behavioural change” Centre for Environmental Strategy, University of Surrey

 

[3] Jaffe, A.B., Stavins, R.N. 1994, “The energy paradox and the diffusion of conservation technology” Resource and economics 16, 91-122

 

[4] Loulou, R., Remme, U., Kanudia, A. Lehtila, A., Goldstein, G. 2005 “Documentation for the TIMES Model” http://www.etsap.org

 

Costs and benefits of a greener alternative for the development of Vietnam's power sector

H. A. Nguyen Trinh (CIRED/CNRS, Nogent sur marne, France), M. Ha-Duong (CIRED/CNRS, Nogent sur Marne, France)

Abstract details
Costs and benefits of a greener alternative for the development of Vietnam's power sector

HA. Nguyen Trinh (1) ; M. Ha-Duong (1)
(1) CIRED/CNRS, Nogent sur marne, France

Abstract content

To explore pathways for Vietnam’s power system until 2040, two scenarios are developed in the current study: (1) a scenario based on current trends (BAU); (2) a greener alternative with more renewable energy and higher energy efficiency (ALT). The authors estimate that the external costs of CO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10 in the power sector in Vietnam are 7-20, 1 328, 2 047 and 1 460 US$/ton, respectively. We find that the ALT scenario is more sustainable than the BAU scenario in all aspects. In the ALT scenario, the price of electricity and the domestic trade balance are less sensitive to fluctuations in the international price of coal than in the BAU scenario because imported fuel accounts for only 39% of total generation capacity in 2040, as opposed to 60% in the current policy scenario. The total costs accumulated from 2010 to 2040 would be lower in the greener alternative: 632 billion US dollars compared with 974 billion US$. This difference arises from several factors: lower investment in new capacity (226 compared with 306 billion US$); lower local pollution costs (73 compared with 137 billion US$); lower CO2 emissions; and lower expenditures on imported fuels (57 compared with 115 billion US$). The outcomes of the ALT scenario are in accord with the targets for the power sector in the most recent Green Growth Strategy of Vietnam (GGSV).

The drivers of investment in cleaner energy production

F. Vona (OFCE Sciences-Po / SKEMA Business School and SciencesPo , Nice and Menton, France), E. Verdolini (FEEM Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano, Italy), D. Popp (Syracuse University, Syracuse, United States of America)

Abstract details
The drivers of investment in cleaner energy production

F. Vona (1) ; E. Verdolini (2) ; D. Popp (3)
(1) OFCE Sciences-Po / SKEMA Business School and SciencesPo , Nice and Menton, France; (2) FEEM Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, CCSD, Milano, Italy; (3) Syracuse University, Syracuse, United States of America

Abstract content

The ability to match future economic growth with reduced pressure on the environment is inextricably linked with the deployment and diffusion of low carbon technologies. An important sector that needs to be decarbonised to supply sustainable energy for all while reducing pressure on the environment is that of centralized electricity and heat production, which is among the major emitters and whose demand is project to increase significantly over the next decades, especially in developing countries (IEA, 2014).

Many “clean” technologies for electricity production are already available, but their use is hindered because they are not cost-competitive with “dirty” technologies. Such price wedge is due to at least three reasons. First, some technologies are relatively immature, and lower costs will materialize only in the future. Second, the price of dirty technologies does not internalize the cost of pollution. Third, the energy sector is characterized by long-lived capital stock and significant sunk investment in existing (dirty) plants.

The academic debate regarding the decoupling of economic growth from polluting energy sources (decarbonization) is often framed assuming a clear-cut distinction between what is clean and what is dirty and the theoretical possibility of completely substituting dirty inputs with clean ones (Acemoglu et al. 2010). Both assumptions are very strong when referring to aggregate energy systems, and more specifically to the power sector. First, emissions reductions in electricity generation can be achieved using either renewable energy resources or improving the energy (and hence carbon) efficiency of fossil-based technologies. Second, if one sets aside nuclear due to proliferation  and safety considerations, there is no carbon free technology that can nowadays fully substitute fossil-based energy. Specifically, renewable energy sources strongly depend on the natural endowment (ocean, hydro, wind), are highly intermittent and seasonal (solar, wind), do not have the generation potential to meet the current demand for energy alone (wind, geothermal) or are manufactured using rare metals whose availability cannot be taken for granted (solar). Moreover, centralized electricity and heat production are peculiar in that the goods they produce (electricity and heat) are difficult to store in an economically viable way or to transport over great distances, and need to be used by consumers at the time they are produced (Battarchaya chpt10).

In this paper, we explore the implications of the peculiarities of the power sector and of available clean energy technologies. We focus on the degree of complementarity between clean and dirty electricity investment. We use data for 27 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries over the years 1990-2007 to show that to meet energy demand when the sun does not shine or the wind does not blow investments in renewable energy generation have been combined with investments in capacity of fossil power generation technologies. Specifically, our analysis confirms that systems that promote a high penetration of renewables require some backup generation capacity that is quick to react and most likely utilized under capacity for most of the time. Older coal power plants and base load plants are not good candidates in this respect, given their high capital costs, low operating costs, the inverse relation between efficiency and size and the long time needed for them to be brought on and off line. Conversely, high efficiency (gas) plants and technologies, which can be brought into operation relatively quickly and allow modular use since efficiency does not fall significantly with size, are installed to quickly compensate renewable intermittency (Battarchaya chpt10).

The implications emerging from our findings are manifold. First, at present there is no evidence that in the power sector technical change can be solely directed towards the clean input without important implications for the reliability of energy supply, energy access and energy security. Second, absent major breakthroughs in storage and grid technologies, the diffusion of renewable energy technologies may not be economically viable even if costs significantly fall due to need to balance demand and supply instantaneously.  Lastly, the necessity to install peak load capacity which compensate intermittency is a further burden that is often not considered in the estimation of renewable energy costs.

Techno-economic analysis of carbon mitigation options for the fossil fuel fired power plants in India

U. Singh (National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, Odisha, India), A. B. Rao (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India), N. Sharma (National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Rourkela, Odisha, India)

Abstract details
Techno-economic analysis of carbon mitigation options for the fossil fuel fired power plants in India

U. Singh (1) ; AB. Rao (2) ; N. Sharma (1)
(1) National Institute of Technology Rourkela, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Rourkela, Odisha, India; (2) Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Centre for technology alternatives for rural areas, Mumbai, India

Abstract content

In response to the global climate change problem, the world community today is in search for an effective means of carbon mitigation.  Coal based power plants in India, with an installed capacity of over 149 GW, account for more than half of the energy production and 66% of electricity generation in the country. These plants emit approximately 665 MtCO2 annually i.e. 37.5% of the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the country.  With a large number of new coal power plants (~ 500 plants with about 600 GW capacity) being proposed, the problem of GHG emissions is far from being solved. 

 

A variety of options exist for reducing the carbon dioxide emissions from the existing coal-fired power plants in India – which are mostly sub-critical units.  The most feasible approaches include fuel switching (use of low-carbon fuels such as natural gas and biomass), and efficiency improvement (by better O&M conditions – by using better quality coal which may have to be imported from outside the country, or by adoption of supercritical and ultra-supercritical or IGCC technology).  Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is the process of extraction of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) from large-point industrial and energy related sources, transport to storage locations and long-term isolation from the atmosphere.  It is being considered as a promising carbon mitigation technology, especially for large point sources such as coal power plants. 

 

The main objective of this paper is to carry out a techno-economic analysis of the several carbon mitigation options for the fossil fuel based power plants in India.  The following options would be considered:

  1. refurbishing/ repowering of the existing sub-critical units with SC/USC/IGCC,
  2. using imported coal with better combustion properties
  3. using CCS to capture and reduce a substantial fraction of the emissions
  4. a combination of any of the above strategies

However, CCS is accompanied by a huge economic and energy penalty.  In case of post-combustion CO2 capture using solvents like amine and ammonia, part of the steam from the steam cycle is lost for solvent regeneration.  Thus, the gross electric output of the plant is lowered.  This issue can be addressed by using an auxiliary natural gas boiler.  Thus, we have one more potential variant of the list of carbon mitigation options listed above. 

 

While India has substantial coal reserves, natural gas reserves are quite low.  However, recently there has been a great deal of interest in unconventional gases like shale gas and coalbed methane (CBM) in India.  If shale gas and CBM can be aggressively deployed, they can serve in several avenues including in auxiliary natural gas boilers for CCS retrofits.  Obviously, pricing of gas versus coal shall be an important determinant for such deployment.  Moreover, if the availability and pricing of natural gas become more favorable, then Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plants may also be considered as a suitable option.  In that case, NGCC can also be coupled with CCS.

 

Thus, a large number of carbon mitigation options will be analyzed so as to estimate the carbon mitigation potential as well as the associated cost of mitigation.  The modeling of the plants would be done by using the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM-cs) developed at the Carnegie Mellon University, USA.  This modeling framework enables a comparison of performance as well as the costs associated with these various plant options on a consistent basis.  Sensitivity of all these scenarios towards some key parameters such as the varying levels of fuel prices, plant capacity factor and fixed charge factor on the capital investment will also be studied so as to understand the policy implications of such interventions.

Spatial optimization of an ideal renewable energy system a answer to the intermittency of renewables energies ?

S. Lassonde (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France), O. Boucher (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France), F.-M. Breon (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France), S. Jerez (University of Murcia,

Abstract details
Spatial optimization of an ideal renewable energy system a answer to the intermittency of renewables energies ?

S. Lassonde (1) ; O. Boucher (1) ; FM. Breon (2) ; S. Jerez (3) ; I. Tobin, (2) ; R. Vautard (2)
(1) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Cnrs / ipsl, Paris, France; (2) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France; (3) University of Murcia, Departement of physics, Murcia, Spain

Abstract content

The share of renewable energies in the mix of electricity production is increasing worldwide. This trend is driven by environmental and economic policies aiming at a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and an improvement of energy security. It is expected to continue in the forthcoming years and decades. Electricity demand is related to weather and climate factors such as the diurnal and seasonal cycles of sunlight and wind, but is also linked to less predictable variability on longer time scales. The intermittency and the lack of medium to long-range predictability of the renewable electricity production (solar, wind power) could eventually hinder their future deployment. Intermittency is indeed a challenge as demand and supply of electricity need to be balanced at any time. This challenge can be addressed by the deployment of an overcapacity in power generation (from renewable and/or thermal sources), a large-scale energy storage system and/or improved management of the demand.

The main goal of this study is to provide a spatial optimization of an ideal renewable energy system at the French and European scales. We use ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ERA-interim meteorological reanalysis and meteorological fields from the Weather Research and Forecasts (WRF) model to estimate the potential for renewable energies. Electricity demand and production are provided by the French electricity network (RTE) at the scale of administrative regions for years 2012 and 2013.

Firstly we will show how the simulated production of renewable electricity compares against the measured production at the regional scale. Simulated renewable energies production (wind and solar) will then be clustered in order to highlight the temporal complementarity (or lack of) between different regions and energy sources.

Secondly, we will present preliminary results from an optimization procedure that aims to minimize the cost of an ideal system composed of renewable energies, thermal plants and increased storage, as a function of a hypothetical carbon emission penalty. The optimal spatial distribution of renewable wind and solar energy systems will be assessed at the French and European scales under the constraint of a balance between demand and supply.

Decarbonising China's electricity sector: the prospect for biomass power generation

J. Li (Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia), J. Xie (South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China)

Abstract details
Decarbonising China's electricity sector: the prospect for biomass power generation

J. Li (1) ; J. Xie (2)
(1) Curtin University of Technology, Perth, Australia; (2) South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, China

Abstract content

China is struggling to accelerate its economic development transition to a lower carbon intensity trajectory. The decarbonised electricity system plays a determining role in low carbon growth in China as it has become the largest power generator in the world and power generation contributes to nearly half of the country’s carbon dioxide emissions. More than two-thirds of existing electricity generation are coal-fired, making China’s electric power sector the most carbon intensive in the world. Total installed generating capacity would more than double over the next 20 years. Therefore the development pathway of China’s power sector has tremendous implications for global carbon emissions reduction and temperature increase stabilisation. Biomass power generation offers a promising window of opportunity to address multi-objective challenges (economic, social and environmental) in the context of fast economic and demographic growth in large emerging economies. Bioenergy can also bring about macroeconomic and environmental cobenefits such as enhanced security of energy supply, better balance sheet, improved local labour market and social welfare through green jobs creation, poverty alleviation and greenhouse gases and air pollutions mitigation.  Built on lessons drawn from the markedly rapid development of wind and solar power over the last decade, this paper attempts to shed light on the status quo, achievements, opportunities and underlying challenges of scaling up biomass-fuelled  heat and power generation in China. Our analysis focuses on the strengths and weaknesses of large-scale development of biomass power generation in China’s electricity market, from both technological and institutional perspective.  It is emphasised that cost-effectiveness aspect needs to be mainstreamed in biomass power industry planning and development, this in return will contribute to optimising the portfolio of decarbonising China’s power sector for the next decades.   The paper first discusses the main achievements and prospects for China’s power sector. It then investigates the role of biomass in mitigating power generation associated GHG emissions and analyses the challenges in scaling up biomass power generation in China. Drawing lessons from wind and solar power, the analysis will proceed to address the economic efficiency of biomass power by investigating the prospect of incorporating power sector in the emerging carbon markets in China to achieve cost-efficient GHG emissions mitigation. The last part offers some concluding remarks and policy implications for decarbonisation in China’s electricity sector.  

Feasibility of a decentral renewable power system in Europe

S. Pfenninger (Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom), J. Lilliestam, (ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Feasibility of a decentral renewable power system in Europe

S. Pfenninger (1) ; J. Lilliestam, (2)
(1) Imperial College London, Grantham Institute and Dept of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, United Kingdom; (2) ETH Zürich, Human-environment systems group, department of environmental systems science, Zürich, Switzerland

Abstract content

The global transition of the power sector towards clean and renewable technologies is well underway. The worldwide average annual growth rate for installed wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) capacity since the year 2000 have been about 25% and 45%, respectively, with installed capacities in 2013 reaching almost 320 GW for wind and 140 GW for solar PV. Hand-in-hand with the rising importance of renewables, the idea of a more local, decentral electricity supply has gained increasing prominence and ideological support. Amongst advocates of a renewables-based electricity system, this is pitching proponents of a centralized renewables deployment (e.g. based on large-scale desert solar power with a continental, or intercontinental, transmission system) against those who argue for decentralized generation and distribution (e.g. based on rooftop PV and small-scale wind combined with smart demand management).

The rapid deployment of both wind and PV in countries like Germany has seemingly brought this possibility of a radically different electricity system than the one we have today closer than it has ever been. Some of the potential advantages of such a decentralized system include more energy independence for individual countries or even municipalities, and more economic benefits accruing to the local communities where power is both produced and used. However, critics point to the fact that such a system would be more costly, for example, due to inefficiencies caused by the large local generation overcapacities needed to maintain system stability, the increased storage requirements, and the loss of returns to scale effects by having many small power plants instead of few large ones. Furthermore, there is the question of how technically feasible the decentralized power paradigm is for heavily populated areas, such as those found in large parts of the European Union (EU), and particularly large metropolitan areas like Paris or London.

Here, we examine the degree to which a completely decentralized power supply based on a combination of renewable energy technologies across the EU is in fact possible, answering the question of how small the smallest self-sufficient areas can be and how much interconnection (especially around cities) is needed in order to supply all electricity needed and keep the system balanced. We do this by simulating wind and solar power generation and analyzing the degrees of aggregation, interconnection and storage needed for the smallest-possible set of independent “electricity islands" across the EU to support themselves for most or all hours of the year. To do so, we use high-resolution wind and solar power plant simulations based on satellite and reanalysis data and validated against real sites across Europe, with a spatial resolution between 5 and 50 kilometers, and a temporal resolution of one hour. Using this input data, we apply the multi-scale energy systems modeling framework Calliope to determine optimal deployment scenarios for these electricity islands.

The results will show the spatial distribution of viable energy islands in Europe, how different storage and demand response availabilities influence the structure of these energy islands as well as the resulting electricity costs at different levels of supply reliability.

Degrowth through the prism of prospective macroeconomic modeling: investigating a paradigmatic change for France

F. Briens (PSL, MINES ParisTech, Sophia-Antipolis, France), N. Maïzi (PSL, MINES ParisTech, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Degrowth through the prism of prospective macroeconomic modeling: investigating a paradigmatic change for France

F. Briens (1) ; N. Maïzi (2)
(1) PSL, MINES ParisTech, Center for applied mathematics, Sophia-Antipolis, France; (2) PSL, MINES ParisTech, Mathematics and Systems, Center for Applied Mathematics, Paris, France

Abstract content

About three decades ago, the Brundtland commission released its famous report entitled “Our common Future”. As an attempt to conciliate development and the environment, the term “sustainable development” was coined for the first time, as a “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It contains within it two key concepts: the concept of 'needs', in particular the essential needs of the world's poor, to which overriding priority should be given; and the idea of limitations imposed by the state of technology and social organization on the environment's ability to meet present and future needs.” [Brundtland, 1987]

Almost thirty years later, climate change, along with biodiversity losses, disruption of natural cycles (nitrogen, phosphorous, water), non-renewable resource depletion, and others, remains a critical issue, and seriously questions the sustainability of the intensive economic metabolism of industrialized societies. As a way out of this multifaceted crisis, many take a stand in favor of a “green growth”, focusing on the idea of technology-related limitations, and with the hope that technological progress will eventually enable a decoupling of energy and material throughput and environmental burdens from economic growth. Others instead put the spotlight on the question of the “needs”, and advocate for a transition towards sustainable “post-growth societies”. With the Degrowth movement, the call for such a transition is consolidating into a complex and multifaceted political project. For the “wealthiest” countries, where the ecological footprint per capita is greater than the global sustainable level, this project may be envisioned as a voluntary, socially sustainable, equitable, smooth downscaling of production and consumption, and thus throughput, to an environmentally sustainable level, “that increases human well-being and enhances ecological conditions at the local and global level, in the short and long-term’’[Kallis and Schneider, 2008].

However, current literature still falls a bit short of providing detailed investigations of possible macro-socioeconomic and biophysical outcomes that may result from taking in such paths. Several questions remain unanswered. In particular, we would like to focus here on the following issues: what concrete proposals could initiate such a transition? What could such paths induce in terms of employment, public debt, energy consumption, waste and GHG emission mitigation? What structural or institutional obstacles must be overcome and how? Etc.

Using a detailed dynamic input-output simulation model of the French monetary economy, we explore different scenarios of transition towards post-growth societies. These scenarios seek to reflect contrasted “visions of sustainable societies and lifestyles”, inferred from a survey conducted amongst different social groups - including in particular actors within the Degrowth movement. They involve structural and behavioral changes in consumption patterns, and integrate proposals and strategies issued from the Degrowth movement. We investigate the possible outcomes of these scenarios in terms of employment, poverty, public debt, energy consumption, waste and GHG emissions and discuss the potential strengths and weaknesses of the different visions they reflect. Our results highlight in particular the importance of cultural, social, behavioral and “non-technical” factors, and recall the critical need for the collective elaboration of a societal project.

 

------References

[Brundtland, 1987]   Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development: Our Common Future (1987), United Nations.

[Kallis and Schneider, 2008]     Kallis, G. and Schneider, F. (2008). Well-being and ecological sustainability beyond growth d-growth; collaborative project (p.3), ICTA, Autonomous University of Barcelona.

An analytic framework to explore low-carbon energy pathways in Kosovo

N. Kittner (UC Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), D. Kammen (University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, United States of America)

Abstract details
An analytic framework to explore low-carbon energy pathways in Kosovo

N. Kittner (1) ; D. Kammen (2)
(1) UC Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (2) University of California Berkeley, Energy and resources group, Berkeley, United States of America

Abstract content

Kosovo’s power sector suffers from poor reliability and rising costs. The World Bank and other potential donors have proposed construction of a new 600 MW lignite based coal-fired power plant in 2017, despite a pledge to no longer finance coal projects except for extreme and rare circumstances.  Kosovo has extensive coal resources, but also hydropower, wind, solar and biomass potential.  Examination of the available options and the need to act quickly on the investment portfolio for Kosovo are critical for the local population and economy. At the same time, the financing of a coal plant in Kosovo serves as a pivotal test on the international stage for future financing of coal projects worldwide, especially in China and India. We investigate alternative low-carbon energy pathways to building the lignite coal plant and find a range of scenarios that all meet Kosovo’s energy needs at lower cost than a new coal plant. We developed an analytic platform to model the electricity grid and constructed multiple scenarios for sensitivity testing. Our analytic platform looks at the cost, options, and impacts of different decarbonizing energy pathways—including a view into different energy efficiency measures, combinations of solar PV, wind, hydropower, biomass, and the introduction of natural gas. We find that a $30/ton carbon price increases costs associated with the new coal plant by at least $330 million USD (Kittner et al., under review).  We find that the lignite coal plant remains the costliest option based on finances alone, even before considering the cost of carbon, health impacts, and job creation impacts.  We introduce both a deterministic modeling platform to explore scenarios for Kosovo and for neighboring countries, and provide a LEAP platform version for policy makers and other interested parties to use in comparing costs, energy access, reliability, and environmental impacts of energy futures.

 

Kittner, N., Dimco, H., Azemi, V., Tairyan, E., Kammen, DM. Sustainable electricity options for Kosovo. Energy Policy. Under Review

The System Effects and Electricity Market Impacts for Germany and the EU of the Energiewende Policy in Germany

M. Blesl (IER University Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany), J. Welsch, (University Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany), M. Wiesmeth (University Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany)

Abstract details
The System Effects and Electricity Market Impacts for Germany and the EU of the Energiewende Policy in Germany

M. Blesl (1) ; J. Welsch, (2) ; M. Wiesmeth (2)
(1) IER University Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany; (2) University Stuttgart, Ier, Stuttgart, Germany

Abstract content

This energy policy, which is even internationally referred to as the “Energiewende”, is based on the long-term vision of renewable energy being the primary source of future energy supply and the decarbonisation of the energy system . The road towards the new energy era is described by a set of targets: a specific share of renewables in the gross electricity generation and in the gross final energy consumption as well as an overall greenhouse gas reduction target of 80 to 90% till 2050 compared with 1990. In this context, a Pan-European TIMES energy system model (short: TIMES PanEU) points out the broader system effects and the impacts on the total costs of electricity supply and storage requirements which result from a further deployment of renewables. TIMES PanEU contains all countries of the EU-28, plus Switzerland and Norway, and covers on country level all sectors connected to energy supply and demand like the supply of resources, the public and industrial generation of electricity and heat and the sectors industry, commercial, households and transport. The scenario analysis shows that the total system costs will be more than doubled by an increasing share of renewables. The reasons for the higher total electricity supply costs are the low capacity credits of variable renewable power plants, the increased need for capacities from dispatchable power plants and the additional costs for transport and distribution. Under the current market environment (“energy only market”), it is unlikely that dispatchable power plants can be operated profitably when the share of variable renewable is increasing. New remuneration schemes would be required for the necessary balancing and capacity services. Additionally, the integration of large shares of variable renewables requires large electricity storages, power to heat, Electromobility and power to gas capacities. Thereby it is possible to map the interactions between electricity, heat and gas sector in TIMES PanEU. To this it will be examined, which temporal resolution is required for mapping different scenarios with different expansion targets of renewable energies? At first the necessary temporal resolution for mapping the availability of fluctuating renewable energies (wind and solar energy) will be determined. This is followed by an enlargement of description of energy demand and energy storage technologies. Besides, import and export and therefore energy storage requirement are affected by the temporal resolution. In this connection the error, which occurs by a lower temporal resolution, will be identified.

The energy security implications of a low-carbon transition

E. Cox (University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The energy security implications of a low-carbon transition

E. Cox (1)
(1) University of Sussex, SPRU, Brighton, United Kingdom

Abstract content

In order to meet legislative targets for mitigating climate change, future energy systems will need to become secure, affordable and low-carbon – the so-called ‘trilemma’ of sustainable energy policy (Boston 2013). In Western Europe, the trilemma has received growing attention as energy security concerns rise up the political and public agenda, driven by declining indigenous fossil fuel reserves and increasing concerns over anthropogenic climate change (MacKerron 2009; Winstone et al 2007). As part of a growing body of research into energy security and low-carbon energy transitions, this paper assesses the future security of the UK electricity system in a low-carbon context.  A new indicator framework for security of both supply and demand has been developed with the specific aim of making projections of the security of a low-carbon electricity system. Drawing upon recent research recommendations, the framework utilises a ‘dashboard’ approach to security analysis which is capable of identifying potential red flags for the future security of a low-carbon electricity system (Mitchell et al 2013). The paper emphasises the importance of timescales of reference when addressing energy systems, and thus focuses on assessing both short-term ‘shocks’ and long-term ‘stresses’ to the electricity system (Boston 2013; Energy and Climate Change Committee 2011). As such, the future security of the UK electricity system is assessed under four key themes: Availability (long-term), Reliability (short-term), Affordability, and Sustainability.

 

The security assessment framework has been applied to a set of three transition pathways, all of which aim to reduce carbon emissions from the electricity sector by 80% by 2050. The three transition pathways have been chosen to reflect the importance of the overriding governance logic and normative goals which could lead to different energy pathways. One pathway envisages deregulation and market-centrism, one envisages large-scale centralised control, and the third pathway envisages a decentralised, small-scale electricity system controlled by civil society and consumers. As such, the analysis seeks to compare the future security of some of these contrasting governance options, in an attempt to flag up areas of concern and to highlight the major trade-offs which may emerge when seeking to balance security, affordability and carbon goals in energy policy.

 

This presentation will introduce this new methodology for assessing the energy security of low-carbon transition pathways. Results from the empirical analysis will be presented, along with the implications of these results for the energy security of a low-carbon transition. The presentation will offer some insights of the key measures for improving low-carbon electricity security, and the key trade-offs which could emerge between the security, carbon and affordability aspects of the trilemma.

 

Boston, A. (2013) Delivering a secure energy supply on a low-carbon pathway. Energy Policy, Vol. 52: 55-59

Energy and Climate Change Committee (2011) UK energy supply: security or independence? UK Energy and Climate Change Committee, London

MacKerron, G. (2009) Lessons from the UK on urgency and legitimacy in energy policymaking. In: I. Scrase and G. MacKerron (Eds.), Energy for the Future. Palgrave MacMillan, Basingstoke

Mitchell, C., Watson, J. and Whiting, J. (2013) New challenges in energy security: the UK in a multipolar world. Palgrave MacMillan, Basingstoke

Winstone, R., Bolton, P. and Gore, D. (2011) Energy security. House of Commons research paper, no. 07/42. Houses of Parliament, London

Supplying reliable renewable electric power from desert regions to meet the electricity needs of growing economies

M. Labordena (ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland), J. Lilliestam, (ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Supplying reliable renewable electric power from desert regions to meet the electricity needs of growing economies

M. Labordena (1) ; J. Lilliestam, (1)
(1) ETH Zürich, Institute for environmental decisions, climate policy group, Zürich, Switzerland

Abstract content

If we are to avoid dangerous climate change, the electricity systems of the world must be largely decarbonized by mid-century. Renewable electricity sources are carbon-neutral and the resource base is, globally and on each continent, large enough to satisfy any conceivable electricity demand, however, their utilization faces numerous challenges. First, renewable sources like solar and wind are intermittent and demand-controlled, while fossil fuel power technologies are supply-controlled and can supply base load power. The intermittency of solar and wind power may cause problems when integrating these sources in the power systems. Power sources that are both renewable and supply-controlled, therefore, are of high importance. These sources are hydropower, biomass, geothermal and concentrating solar power (CSP) equipped with thermal storage. Hydropower and some bioenergy systems, however, are dependent on water availability and can increase land- or water-use competition, among other several sustainability concerns. Second, all renewable power needs extensive areas of land due to its low energy density of the primary resource, increasing concerns regarding land-use conflicts and costs for land also for solar and wind power. This is a barrier to renewable power expansion in densely populated regions, in regions with high or rapidly increasing electricity demand, and in regions competing for land for agriculture. Renewable dispatchable sources like CSP that can be deployed at large-scale in remote regions or on land with non- or low-competing land-use for agriculture would be particularly valuable.

Desert regions are, therefore, potential suitable land for CSP expansion in terms of low competition for land use and the high levels of solar irradiation. Research shows that a dispersed and coordinated fleet of CSP plants equipped with thermal storage can supply large amounts of reliable power at reasonable costs, in some desert regions around the globe (Pfenninger et al., 2014). These regions, however, are far from centres of demand where power would be consumed, requiring large transmission lines to connect generation plants to the centres of demand (Trieb et al., 2012). We therefore examine the potential of a fleet of CSP plants to supply and transport reliable renewable electric power to large centres of demand, which are large cities worldwide. The desert regions in focus are located in China, India, the United States, and North Africa and the Middle East; this last region produces solar power both for its own needs and for electricity exports to the European Union. We conduct the analysis in three steps. First, we identify the best CSP generation sites in the desert regions by means of geographic information system (GIS) analysis, applying geographical restrictions to land to minimize impact on biodiversity, soils, infrastructure due to natural hazards, and on land-use and land-cover change. Second, we identify the routes of the optimal transmission corridors from the generation plants to the centres of demand, by means of a GIS-based algorithm that minimizes economic, social and environmental costs. Third, we investigate with a multi-scale energy system model the optimal configuration and operation of the CSP plant fleet to provide reliable electric power, and calculate the costs of generating and transmitting this power to the centres of demand. Our results will show to which degree renewable reliable electric power can be supplied from CSP plants fleets in desert regions, and what the cost of this power is at the points of demand. In addition, we will show in detail the optimal siting and design of the transmission lines from the deserts to the major cities. We expect to find that the potential for desert regions to supply reliable CSP to the consumption regions in focus is large, despite the vast distances.

 

References

Pfenninger, S., Gauche, P., Lilliestam, J., Damerau, K., Wagner, F., Patt, A., 2014. Potential for concentrating solar power to provide baseload and dispatchable power. Nature Clim. Change. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2276.

Trieb, F., Schillings, C., Pregger, T., O'Sullivan, M., 2012. Solar electricity imports from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe. Energ Policy 42, 341-353. Doi 10.1016/J.Enpol.2011.11.091.

Power system prospective: From deep within the material to the power grid scale

V. Mazauric (Scneider electric and MINES ParisTech, Grenoble, France), N. Maïzi (PSL, MINES ParisTech, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Power system prospective: From deep within the material to the power grid scale

V. Mazauric (1) ; N. Maïzi (2)
(1) Scneider electric and MINES ParisTech, Center for applied mathematics, Grenoble, France; (2) PSL, MINES ParisTech, Mathematics and Systems, Center for Applied Mathematics, Paris, France

Abstract content

To address the abysmal lack of efficiency of the electrical system (73% of losses, 45% of worldwide CO2 emissions!), an energy efficient description of electrical systems lying on a reversible interpretation of the Faraday’s law is presented.


As matter of fact, the free current density flowing in the whole power grid exhibits well-split scales allowing mean-field hypothesis where the global condition of reversibility is replaced by embedded minimizations on the various scales involved by the power electrical system. Following a thermodynamic viewpoint, various scales were explored from deep within the material to the power grid scale.

At the power management level, the electromagnetic energy coupling acts to enforce synchronism – usually f = 50Hz or 60Hz – between all generation plants supplying the power grid. An X-Y lattice model is adopted to describe the interaction between the magnetic momentum carried by the rotor of a given machine and the magnetic mean-field resulting from all the others [1]. Provided a large enough resistant electrodynamic torque – simulated with a strong enough correlated lattice or actually a suitable voltage plan –, synchronism is kept under admissible load fluctuation and the kinetic energy embedded in the whole power system acts as a global and huge inertia against frequency deviation which therefore may only occur on several periods.

Given that energy conservation results from the uniformity of time for any isolated system [2], this upper-aggregated scale provides two dynamic energy-based invariants specifically shaped for power systems and suitable to address the question of reliability, namely the kinetic- and the magnetic- energies embedded in the whole power grid. Conversely, following dynamically these energy-based invariants provides a way to perform a space-aggregation and a time-reconciliation of all the scales involved in the power management of the electromagnetic energy.

Hence, a dynamic reliability constraint on kinetic energy was endogenized in the technical optimum TIMES model. Dedicated to La Reunion island:

  • The potential contribution of electrochemical storage technology to the power dynamics and the reliability has been demonstrated; and
  • A high share of variable renewable plants (around 50%) can be considered without jeopardize power transmission.

[1] D.D. Betts, "X-Y Model" in: Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena, vol. 3, C. Domb and M.S. Green Eds., pp. 569-652, 1972.

[2] L.D. Landau, E.M. Lifshitz, Mechanics; vol. 1. Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1960.

Institutional change and market conditions for low-carbon electricity transition in Vietnam

Y. Rizopoulos (LADYSS, Paris, France), H. A. Nguyen Trinh (LADYSS, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Institutional change and market conditions for low-carbon electricity transition in Vietnam

Y. Rizopoulos (1) ; HA. Nguyen Trinh (1)
(1) LADYSS, Paris, France

Abstract content

The rapid expansion of the industrialization and urbanization processes over the last two decades has dramatically increased the demand for electricity in Vietnam. The challenges of developing new resources, enhancing high-voltage transmission lines, and reducing transmission and distribution losses imply an improvement of the current electricity system.

Considerations related to low carbon transition make part of this general context. Meanwhile, because of complex interwoven interests, major players as the powerful holding EVN (Electricity of Vietnam) seem more interested to pursue the development of fossil/fuel based power plants than to favor renewable resources. As a consequence, a low carbon transition implies a fundamental transformation of the current Vietnamese electricity system. Focusing on the institutional and governance issues, such a transition needs “actions to remove the barriers” (IEA, 2012) and “high levels of social and political innovation” (Global Carbon Project, 2010). Indeed, the institutional environment of the energy sector has its roots in the ‘Doi moi’ policy (1986), but also in the systemic features of Vietnam combining centralisation and fragmentation: centralisation of political power and weight of the political elite, hierarchy and informal networking, progressive decentralisation of economic management, and weak civil society.

The paper proposes a mesoeconomic approach of the low-carbon electricity transition in Vietnam. We argue that political will is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for such a change. The transition process depends on interdependent organizational decisions inside the electricity sector and implies a fundamental transformation of the stakeholder’s positions and relations. In particular, it necessitates the existence of a critical mass of initiating actors perceiving the benefits of investing in renewable sources and having levers to redefine the rules of the game, modifying therefore the institutional framework and enabling the constitution of new structural interdependencies inside the electricity system. In this perspective, we proceed to the identification of key players, and point out the institutional and structural characteristics of the electricity market. Then, we propose an analytical grid to apprehend the change path by following the evolution of some focal variables. Concerning specifically wind electricity generation, wholesale market price and subsidies to the single buyer indicate the balance of power between the major stakeholders and reflect the stages of the transition process.

Our work sheds further light on the processes that determine the transition to low carbon electricity in Vietnam but several limitations should be noted given the complex multilevel/multifactor character of the game. Indeed, in-depth knowledge of vertical (government to enterprise) and horizontal (enterprise to enterprise) bargaining process or of the way foreign stakeholders intervene and interact with local actors could usefully complete the analytical grid developed here. More, we focus on the single onshore wind power as an illustration of the conditions influencing low carbon transition. The method to monitor the change process could be further improved by integrating more detailed data on electricity selling prices, as well as incentives and counter-incentives for all renewable and fossil resources.

We propose a comprehensive analysis of the factors shaping/preventing the transition to low carbon electricity in Vietnam - especially those related to interest settlements, actors’ strategies, principles of governance and institutional framework - in a political economy perspective. Concerning specifically wind electricity generation, wholesale market price and subsidies to the single buyer indicate the balance of power between the major stakeholders and reflect the stages of the transition process. In addition, the paper provides a methodological contribution for the measure of structural/institutional change in the energy sector. 

Impact on the CO2 emissions of an increasing share of renewable energy in the French electricity mix

F.-M. Breon (IPSL, Gif sur Yvette, France), B. Bonin, (CEA, Gif sur Yvette, France), O. Boucher (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France), A. Laureau, (CNRS, Grenoble, France), E. Merle, (CNRS, Grenoble, France), J. Miss, (IRSN, Fontenay aux

Abstract details
Impact on the CO2 emissions of an increasing share of renewable energy in the French electricity mix

FM. Breon (1) ; B. Bonin, (2) ; O. Boucher (3) ; A. Laureau, (4) ; E. Merle, (4) ; J. Miss, (5) ; Y. Richet, (5) ; H. Safa, (6) ; F. Thais, (7)
(1) IPSL, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) CEA, Direction de l'energie nucléaire, Gif sur Yvette, France; (3) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS / IPSL, Paris, France; (4) CNRS, In2p3/lpsc, Grenoble, France; (5) IRSN, Fontenay aux Roses, France; (6) Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, Direction de l'energie nucléaire, Gif sur Yvette, France; (7) Institut de Technico-Economie des Systèmes Energétiques (I-Tésé), Saclay, France

Abstract content

The French electricity power mix is dominated by Nuclear as it provides about 75% of the total consumption.  Hydroelectricity is the second main source of electricity production in France.  The combination of these two decarbonized electric productions, complemented by fossil fuel power plants, leads to typical CO2 emission of less than 50 gCO2/kWh, an order of magnitude smaller than that of many other industrialized countries.  Thus, the contribution to climate change of the current electric production in France is small.  Yet, there is a strong ongoing debate to reduce the share of nuclear energy while increasing the share of renewable electric production such as wind and solar.  It appears necessary to quantify the impact of such change in the power mix.

Although wind and solar are promising techniques to provide clean electricity, their production is intermittent.  Photovoltaic electricity is null during the night and significantly smaller in winter than in summer, which is anti-correlated with the demand.  Wind electricity is very much dependent on the wind, and production variations of a factor more than 100 have been observed at the French national scale.  The intermittent nature of PV and wind production may necessitate the availability and use of backup solutions to insure a production in line with the demand.  Yet, the requirement for backup power sources that are used at a fraction of their capacity has a direct impact on the overall production cost.  In addition, to follow the intermittency of renewable energy production, it may be necessary to use CO2-emitting techniques, such as gas power plants.

We have developed a model that analyzes the electricity demand and production at the French national scale.  The model accounts for the fixed and variable cost of each electricity production mean: The fixed cost does not depend on the actual production, while the variable costs are proportional to the MWh production.  Similarly, the CO2 emissions have both a fixed (plant construction) and a variable component.

The model is used to estimate the impact of a larger share of renewable energy on the electricity mix at the French national scale on the overall cost and the CO2 emissions.  The intermittency of PV and wind energy imposes the development of backup power that has an impact on both the cost and the CO2 emissions.  The latter can be evaluated as an additional cost (such as a Carbon Tax). The optimal energy mix depends on the assumed “cost” of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere.

Mr Alex Kazaglis

A. Kazaglis (UK Government, Committee on Climate Change, london, United Kingdom), J. Skea (Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Mr Alex Kazaglis

A. Kazaglis (1) ; J. Skea (2)
(1) UK Government, Committee on Climate Change, Committee on Climate Change, london, United Kingdom; (2) Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Decarbonizing the UK electricity sector by 2030: progress and outstanding challenges

Alex Kazaglis, Power Sector Senior Analyst, Committee on Climate Change

The UK’s Governments’ statutory advisors on climate change – the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) – have advised that near-complete decarbonisation of the power sector by 2030 is part of the low cost path to meeting long term emissions targets. Through the Energy Act 2013, Parliament has now recognised the need for rapid decarbonisation of the power sector as a priority.

This talk will cover progress towards power sector decarbonisation and outstanding challenges.

Recent developments include updates in the policy framework through Electricity Market Reforms (EMR) and a step change investment in low-carbon capacity (particularly wind). The underlying emissions intensity of the UK’s electricity grid – meaning the intensity that could be achieved if the grid were operated to minimize emissions - has dropped by around 40% since 2007.

However, outstanding challenges include a lack of certainty beyond 2020, which is an issue for the supply chain and investment with long lead times and the CCC recommend a legislated 2030 carbon intensity target to address this. An innovation strategy is also required for promising but currently expensive technologies (e.g. offshore wind and CCS) to clarify that there will be a market for these technologies if cost reductions can be achieved. 

Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris –Assessment from an energy system perspective of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions

A. Kitous, (European Commission (DG JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain), A. Labat, (European Commission (DG Climate Action), Brussels, Belgium), M. Perry (European Commission (DG Climate Action), Brussels, Belgium), B. Saveyn, (European Commission (DG JRC-IPTS), S

Abstract details
Global Energy and Climate Outlook: Road to Paris –Assessment from an energy system perspective of Low Emission Levels under World Action Integrating National Contributions

A. Kitous, (1) ; A. Labat, (2) ; M. Perry (2) ; B. Saveyn, (1) ; T. Vandyck, (1) ; Z. Vrontisi (3)
(1) European Commission (DG JRC-IPTS), Institute for prospective technological studies, Seville, Spain; (2) European Commission (DG Climate Action), Brussels, Belgium; (3) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain

Abstract content

On 25 February 2015, the European Commission has set out its Communication, "The Paris Protocol - a blueprint for tackling global climate change beyond 2020” in the EU’s Energy Union package. This paper presents the modelling work undertaken in the context of the abovementioned EC communication regarding the energy system related impacts of post-2020 global climate change mitigation policies. The analysis presented here mainly lies on results from the energy systems model POLES for the purposes of the EC preparation for the global climate negotiations. It focuses on possible ways to stay below 2°C through processes established in the run-up to Paris COP21 by studying a combination of domestically determined mitigation targets for the period beyond 2020.

The POLES model is a global sectoral simulation model for the development of energy markets. It operates on a yearly basis up to 2050, with a very recent data update. Main exogenous inputs are economic growth and demographic projections for each region. POLES model provides comprehensive energy balances (demand, transformation, and supply) for the 57 countries / regions covering the world and detailed oil and gas productions for 80 countries. Energy demand in 15 sectors is driven by income and derived activity variables as well as short- and long-term energy prices.

In the POLES Baseline population and economic growth projections are based on the UN and OECD and the evolution of the energy markets, as driven by its own dynamic of production, supply and demand, is consistent with IEA projections. The projections do not consider the impacts from unabated climate change. In this Baseline scenario, global emissions would increase at unsustainable levels: from 48 GtCO2e in 2010, 61 GtCO2e in 2030 to 68 GtCO2e in 2050. Along such trajectories, the world is at risk to experience a global temperature increase of +4°C, with sizeable impacts on sustainable growth and vulnerable groups in all regions. The Global Mitigation scenario is in line with staying below 2°C, with global GHG emissions peaking in 2020 and reaching about 43 GtCO2e in 2030, still higher than in 1990 (+20%) but lower than in 2010 (-10%), and world average emissions reach 1.5 tCO2e per capita (50th percentile is 2 tCO2e per capita), roughly the level of the least emitting regions in 2010.

The modelling confirms that all regions can define domestic mitigation goals in line with 2°C, based on their current policy experiences, and that the institutions and mechanisms put in place under the Climate Convention framework can be mobilised to deliver enhanced climate and economic benefits, especially for the countries with less capabilities. A significant transformation of the energy system is required, including energy savings, decarbonising the power sector with renewables, nuclear and fuel switching and actions to cut non-CO2 emissions in agriculture, industry or waste. It is found that Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) becomes an important mitigation option after 2030. Europe and Asian countries see their imports in volume and monetary value decreasing substantially, North America presents a balanced energy trade and fossil fuel energy producers have to adapt to improved energy use at global level. Nonetheless, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America remain net fossil fuel exporters, Gulf countries and Russian Federation remain the world’s dominant suppliers, and energy trade remains an important source of their income. The global investment patterns in power production are substantially modified by the introduction of ambitious GHG mitigation policies and by the related major changes in the energy mix towards renewable sources representing 40% of primary energy in 2050. Investments shift away from fossil fuels towards the power sector to tap capital-intensive mitigation opportunities. These investments enable to reduce other costs that would be required if abatement was not undertaken largely by the power sector but also by expenditure on fossil fuel imports and subsidies.

Energy Transition in Europe. The role of communities and city-regions – some comparisons between Britain and Germany

L. Reynolds (L'Institut d'études avancées de Paris, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Energy Transition in Europe. The role of communities and city-regions – some comparisons between Britain and Germany

L. Reynolds (1)
(1) L'Institut d'études avancées de Paris, Paris, France

Abstract content

How can city-region level public authorities in the UK help drive a low carbon energy transition? In addition, how might such a transformation of the energy regime also involve shifts in economic, social and political power?

 

When the energy transition in the UK is compared with the energiewende in Germany, one salient feature stands out:  In Germany, new actors from local cooperatives to city authorities have become key players in the growing renewable energy sector. This may even threaten the centralised ‘utility’ model of the incumbent players. The UK by contrast, has historically had a more centralised political system with fewer powers for cities and regions. It has also had a more centralised energy system, along with more centralised visions for energy transition.

 

However, two significant recent developments may be changing this situation in the UK. First, there are the moves to devolve some central government powers to newly enhanced ‘city-regions’. Secondly, comes a new government community energy strategy, which signals encouragement of the community energy model.

 

This paper explores the dual processes of city-regional devolution and energy transition in the UK. Drawing on early findings from a current EDF-IEA Paris Transitions énergétique study, it examines the potential for a new ‘civic energy sector’ in the UK, and ongoing moves by UK city-regions around this question. Drawing on theories from transition studies, the sociology of technology and urban geography, this work analyses and addresses the contested questions of scale - between community, city and region - to explore the shifting, multiple and contested pathways to energy transition. How might community and city level players reconfigure the energy transition? What limits are placed on this process – including by incumbent actors in the energy sector and government? How can we understand the different strategies and visions of energy transition today, with their different imagined scales of transition and distributions of political, economic and electrical power? The conclusions drawn can help us to understand the key role played by communities, cities and regions in the transition to a low carbon society and energy regime.

Asian perspectives in governing the deployment of smart grids

D. Mah (Asian Energy Studies Center, Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Abstract details
Asian perspectives in governing the deployment of smart grids

D. Mah (1)
(1) Asian Energy Studies Center, Hong kong baptist university, Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Abstract content

Climate change concerns, rising energy costs, and risks of nuclear power have heightened the urgency of a transition to a low-carbon future worldwide. Smart grids represent one of the most revolutionary developments in energy management: by integrating advanced information technology as a way to modernize existing electricity networks, smart grids have the potential to accelerate the deployment of more decentralised electricity supply systems (e.g. renewable energy) and demand-side measures. Smart grid technologies are increasingly being tested and adopted in developed and developing economies (e.g. the U.S., the U.K., Japan, and China).

 

Although smart grids have become an emerging theme in the energy literature, critical understandings on how and why smart grids have been developed in the ways as we observe have been lacking. The literature has also largely been based on advanced, industrialised societies in the West. The extent to which and how smart grids have been deployed in Asia, a continent of crucial importance in global energy governance, has yet been adequately addressed.

 

This paper aims to provide insights on the ways smart grids may evolve and enhance sustainable energy transitions in Asia. Based on preliminary results of an on-going project, we will examine the emerging interactions between the state, utilities/business, and electricity consumers, as well as the associated implications on the developments of smart grids in China and Japan. Our analysis will focus on three policy themes: (1) the development of a new regulatory framework (for rectifying utilities’ disincentives to renewable energy and energy efficiency); (2) business model innovation (to develop business strategies to achieve economies of scale, cost effectiveness, and risk sharing), and (3) engaging electricity consumers. The Asian perspectives of our analysis will provide better understanding of the extent to which unique political and socio-economic conditions in some Asian countries may lead to the emergence of distinctive forms of smart grid deployment pathways that may set them apart from those in the West.

Opportunities and challenges for decarbonisation with electricity generation from nuclear energy

J. Cobb (World Nuclear Association, London, France)

Abstract details
Opportunities and challenges for decarbonisation with electricity generation from nuclear energy

J. Cobb (1)
(1) World Nuclear Association, London, France

Abstract content

Generation of electricity from nuclear generation is a major global contributor to decarbonisation. Currently, nuclear generation meets around 11% of global electricity demand with very low lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions, avoiding in excess of two billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, compared to coal fired generation. Its high capacity factor and predictable output is advantageous compared to some low carbon electricity generation options.

Increased use of nuclear generation is a feature of a number of long-term climate change mitigation proposals. This presentation will review the projected emissions savings from nuclear generation, based third party studies and our own research. It will also review assessments of the lifecycle emissions of nuclear generation and how these compare to other generation options.

The presentation will examine the impact of different nuclear build scenarios on the nuclear fuel cycle, including global demand for uranium ore, uranium enrichment and fuel fabrication. It will identify where additional mining, processing and fabrication capacity may be required in these separate stages of the nuclear fuel cycle. 

The presentation will also examine the scope for increasing global nuclear generation. This will include options for increasing and extending generation from existing reactors. It will also include options for new reactor technology to improve performance and better utilise the uranium resource.

Given these conditions the presentation will project what the potential contribution of nuclear generation to global greenhouse gas mitigation could be and what technical, economic and political challenges there would be to realising this contribution.

Mapping and Modelling multiple benefits of energy efficiency and emission mitigation in China's cement industry at the provinces level

S. Zhang (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), E. Worrell, (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), W. Crijns-Graus (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands)

Abstract details
Mapping and Modelling multiple benefits of energy efficiency and emission mitigation in China's cement industry at the provinces level

S. Zhang (1) ; E. Worrell, (1) ; W. Crijns-Graus (1)
(1) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht, Netherlands

Abstract content

China’s cement industry is the second largest energy consumer and key emitter of CO2 and air pollutants. It accounts for 7% of total energy consumption in China and 15% of CO2, 21% of PM, 4% SO2 and 10% of NOx of total emissions, respectively. Provincial disparities in energy consumption and emissions of CO2 and air pollutants in China’s cement industry are rarely quantified. In this study, an integrated assessment model including provincial energy conservation supply curves (ECSC)(which can shows the cost-effective and technical energy saving potential per province), the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model (which can be used to calculate air pollutant emissions), and ArcGIS (a geographical information system (GIS) with elaborated spatial functions) is developed and used to assess the potential of energy savings in terms of emission mitigation of CO2 and air pollutants and multiple benefits of energy efficiency measures at the provincial level during the period 2011-2030. The results show significant heterogeneity across provinces in terms of potential of energy saving as well as emission mitigation of CO2 and air pollutants (i.e. PM, SO2, and NOx) in the next two decades. Seven provinces (i.e. Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hebei), six of which are located in the central- and east- China, account for 47% of the total energy saving potential, equivalent to 26% of baseline energy use in 2030. The energy efficiency measures can help decrease 38% of CO2, 23% of SO2, 33% of NOx, and 26% of PM emissions in these seven provinces by 2030. This indicates that the multiple benefits should be considered when local policy makers or end users make decisions whether to use energy efficiency measures to solve environmental issues.

Energy Sufficiency in Rural Areas - The example of French TEPOS

M. Dreyfus (CNRS - CERAPS, Lille, France)

Abstract details
Energy Sufficiency in Rural Areas - The example of French TEPOS

M. Dreyfus (1)
(1) CNRS - CERAPS, Lille, France

Abstract content

Scholars and policy-makers have now widely acknowledged the key role of local governments and local initiatives in tackling climate change. In fact, for a long time climate change was seen as a global issue, ignoring the fact that its impacts are actually experienced at the local level. Yet thanks to the activities of audacious and resourceful cities as well as to the establishment of powerful transnational networks, the activities of local governments slowly got the attention of policy-makers and researchers.

In governance studies, several theoretical frameworks can be used to discuss the activities undertaken by local governments. The oldest is led by prof. Ostrom who developed with her colleagues, the concept of polycentric governance systems (Ostrom 2010, 2014). The idea is that solutions lie at the local level in the interactions of a multitude of stakeholders, public and private. Multi-level governance theories (Jordan et al. 2012; Schreurs 2008; Corfee-Morlot et al. 2009; Schroeder and Bulkeley 2009) focus on local governments and cities as important players through their responsibilities in the provision of services and infrastructures.  Authors highlight the importance of the cooperation of these local authorities through transnational networks.

A common question addressed by these various theories is the relevant scale of action to address climate change. A lot of studies now report cities initiatives, a relevant field of studies because of their important contribution to greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Yet smaller local governments and rural authorities are also taking action.  The aim of this presentation is precisely to explore what is being done in rural territories to address the challenge of climate change.

This presentation therefore introduces TEPOS (“Positive Energy Territories” or in French “Territoires à energie positive”). These are rural areas, “territories”, which intend to achieve energy sufficiency. The “territory” can refer to a single commune, a group of communes or higher level of local governments’ associations such as “pays”or national parks.

The main goal of TEPOS is to increase energy efficiency and to cover the entire local demand through renewable, locally produced, energy. They have a systemic approach considering environmental benefits along with social and economic ones. The purpose is to start a transition towards less fossil-fuel energy use, involving all the stakeholders present on the territory (citizens, companies and businesses but also representatives of national and other public authorities). Excess in energy production may be delivered to other units, in particular urban areas, creating an interesting rural-urban partnership.

A network of TEPOS allows awareness-raising and sharing experiences between TEPOS and other local stakeholders.  TEPOS are also part of a European network called 100% RES communities.

Many lessons can be drawn from this innovative experiment. On the basis of  cases examples, I will address the following questions:

- What are the drivers of the TEPOS projects?

- What concrete measures are taken to mitigate GHG emissions?

- What concrete measures are taken to adapt to climate change?

- What legal tools (in particular what kind of companies: public ownership, semi-public, private or citizens ownerships) are used?

- How rural and urban authorities cooperate?

- How influent is the participation to a peer network?

 

Answers to these questions will hopefully help identifying good practices, inspiring for other stakeholders in different contexts.

Determination of Optimum Imbibition for the Milling Process in Sugar Factories with Consideration of Trade-offs among Sugar Extraction, Power Production, and Water Use

S. Chantasiriwan (Thammasat University, Pathum Thani, Thailand)

Abstract details
Determination of Optimum Imbibition for the Milling Process in Sugar Factories with Consideration of Trade-offs among Sugar Extraction, Power Production, and Water Use

S. Chantasiriwan (1)
(1) Thammasat University, Mechanical Engineering, Pathum Thani, Thailand

Abstract content

Manufacturing of raw sugar from sugar canes requires many processes. From energy viewpoint, three important processes are milling, steam generation, and evaporation (which includes crystallization). Milling is the process in which juice is extracted from shredded sugar cane. The outputs of the milling unit are sugar juice and bagasse. Juice is sent to the evaporation process, in which, eventually, water is separated from raw sugar. Bagasse is used as the fuel in the steam generation process, which produces steam needed to evaporate juice in the evaporation process. Since the amount of bagasse required for producing process steam is much smaller than the amount of bagasse produced from the milling process, most sugar factories install high-pressure boilers so that high-pressure steam can be used to produce power in either back-pressure or extraction-condensing turbines. Low-pressure steam from turbines is then used in the process. Electrical power obtained from the cogeneration system usually exceeds the demand for internal use in the factory. The excess power is, therefore, exported to the national grid.

In order to increase juice extraction in the milling process, imbibition water is added to the milling unit. More imbibition water results in more thermal energy required to evaporate diluted sugar juice in the evaporation process. Furthermore it results in bagasse with more moisture. Combustion of wet bagasse leads to not only less production of power because some of the thermal energy from combustion is required to evaporate the moisture in bagasse but also more water loss because evaporated moisture is eventually exhausted to the environment with flue gas. Most sugar factories focus only on sugar extraction when selecting the amount of imbibition. Previous investigations have pointed out that the amount of imbibition should be reduced in order to attain the optimum mix of sugar production and power production. In fact, in terms of profit generation, imbibition should be less as the ratio of the profit from sugar production to the profit from power generation decreases.

In the current study, conservation of water is also considered, along with production of sugar and power. The direct effect of the amount imbibition on water use in form of imbibition water is apparent. It also affects water indirectly through the amount of water required to grow sugar canes. Conservation of water has rarely been taken into account by sugar factories. However, as climate change causes scarcity of fresh water in certain part of the world, sugar factories located there will eventually find it necessary to attach economic value to water, and the results of the current study will be of benefit to them. The main objective of this study is to determine the amount of imbibition that will yield the optimum mix of sugar production, power generation, and water use. To reach this objective, mathematical models of milling, steam generation, evaporation, and power generation units are developed, along with interactions between them through mass and energy balances. Results of simulation are presented in charts that show variations of optimum imbibition with important parameters.

ICT is part of climate change ! Can we reduce its impact and apply good practices and tools to others society domains ?

F. Berthoud (CNRS, Grenoble, France), C. Gossart (Institut Mines-Télécom/Télécom École de Managements, Evry, France), L. Lefevre (Inria, Lyon, France)

Abstract details
ICT is part of climate change ! Can we reduce its impact and apply good practices and tools to others society domains ?

F. Berthoud (1) ; C. Gossart (2) ; L. Lefevre (3)
(1) CNRS, Lpmmc, umr5493, cnrs/ujf, Grenoble, France; (2) Institut Mines-Télécom/Télécom École de Managements, Evry, France; (3) Inria, Lyon, France

Abstract content

Information Communication and Technology  comprises a variety of heterogeneous technical products :  datacenters, networks and myriads of fixed and mobile terminal equipments.The power world consumption of ICT was around  112 GWatts in 2013  (divided between in near equivalent datacenters, networks and end-users equipments). The amount of dispersed CO2 is considered as equivalent to the aviation industry. This pollution and associated energy consumption is constantly and rapidly growing. As any other industrial technology and product, ICT equipments face a complex lifecycle from the design (with rare metals), transport, to the usage and (possible) recycling. This worldwide lifecycle is responsible to consequent greenhouses gases production.

This oral contribution will follow and present a complete life cycle approach applied to  ICT :

- Most of numerical models do not take into account  greenhouse gases production during design and transport phase. This talk  will explore technological issues of an eco design of ICT equipments. The usage of rare metals and their impact on planet level must be taken into account. Potential impact for extended product life and repairing possibilities will be discussed. A focus will be provided on relevant  examples from eco-aware industry.

- A lot of research initiatives (academic and industrial) are currently focused on energy efficiency during usage phase. This talk will review  the most relevant ones and present their potential of impact at large scale. We will review  the challenges in energy monitoring of large distributed computing systems( from clouds to networks supporting BigData scenarios) and proposed associated metrics, code of conducts and best practices examples. Some rebound effects will be explored. Major hardware and software based energy saving capabilities will be analyzed and discussed.

- Worldwide, most of current ICT equipments are not (even partially) properly recycled. But properly processing electronic waste is mandatory if we want to efficiently influence ICT lifecyle. This talk will present some examples and explore the effect of applying good practices in recycling.

As second part, this presentation will also explore potential energy savings provided by ICT which  can impact other society domains at large scale. From visio conference to social networking, ICT can support new range of services helping to reduce their potential impact on climate change. But these services must be carefuly exposed and analyzed in order to support a full understanding of their benefits.

Decarbonising demand by energy efficiency and material efficiency – why it is at the core of climate policy and how it could be achieved

S. Lechtenböhmer (Wuppertal Institut für Klima Umwelt Energie, Wuppertal, Germany), L.-G. Giraudet (Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Nogent sur Marne, France)

Abstract details
Decarbonising demand by energy efficiency and material efficiency – why it is at the core of climate policy and how it could be achieved

S. Lechtenböhmer (1) ; LG. Giraudet (2)
(1) Wuppertal Institut für Klima Umwelt Energie, Research Group Future Energy and Mobility Structures, Wuppertal, Germany; (2) Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (cired), Nogent sur Marne, France

Abstract content

Decarbonising energy supply is not sufficient to achieve sustainable, low carbon energy systems. A highly efficient use of energy has to be tackled much more serious if mitigation shall leed to successful decarbonisation. Only if energy demand can be stabilised or reduced there will be a realistic chance to convert supply towards sustainable sources.

 

Final energy demand stabilisation needs high exploitation of potentials in all sectors by low energy buildings, highly efficient appliances and vehicles as well as mainstreaming best available technology all over industry. Basic materials production - which is responsible for a significant share of energy demand, however already operates close to physical limits of current processes in many countries. Here new processes and break through technologies will be needed to achieve significant reductions of energy use. Further, on a global scale means of more efficient use of basic materials such as material effciency as well as recycling will be indispensable.

 

All these challenges do need concerted action on a more streamlined policy for significantly increasing energy efficiency as well as decarbonising basic industry. 

How to achieve climate stability in cultural heritage buildings despite climate changes

J. Käferhaus (Kaeferhaus GmbH, Vienna, Austria)

Abstract details
How to achieve climate stability in cultural heritage buildings despite climate changes

J. Käferhaus (1)
(1) Kaeferhaus GmbH, Vienna, Austria

Abstract content

In future we cannot afford any longer our energy bills especially in museums, castles and other historic buildings with need in climate stability especially under negative auspicious of climate change, which means warmer outdoor climate in future.

So far our one-dimensional thinking in ‘repairing’ wrong development by big machinery is no longer a suitable method because of lack of money and common cutbacks of energy budgets for cultural heritage.

 

As past has shown very old and unique artifacts in historic buildings have overcome very long periods of about 500 to 900 years – also with very warm periods - without any technical support or cooling units what so ever. The exceptional ‘Altar of Verdun’, a masterpiece of enamel work of 1188 in Stift Klosterneuburg, close to Vienna, as well as the unique collection of all kinds of artifacts of Carl Gustav Wrangel in the Swedish Castle of Skokloster and Ambras Castle, Innsbruck, with its famous painting gallery are best examples how big building masses keep valuable masterpieces in constant climate conditions in the sense of preventive conservation.

Big masses of historic buildings mostly give best shelter against summer heat. Hot summer outside temperatures mostly will be compensated by colder nights and the buffering capacity of huge walls. Often summer night cooling through natural ventilation will improve this sustainable effect.

 

In order to reach moderate summer indoor temperatures natural ventilation as well as best possible outside shading in accordance with monument authority’s prescriptions will reduce indoor heat achieving acceptable indoor conditions when indoor loads also will be reduced accordingly.

 

Also winter heating in historic buildings could be reduced similar to low energy consumption buildings with pure radiation heat by warming up building masses. With pure radiation heat energy bills in historic buildings could be cut to half. Also with warm shell negative consequences of rising damp, mould or condensation on cold walls could be avoided as the following famous examples proof vividly:

 

Einsiedeln Monastery with an underground store room for precious, historic books and an old library, heated by waste heat of electronic data processing;

Museum of Fine Arts, Vienna, showroom IV, got rid of mould and cut energy bill by half;

Academy of Fine Arts, Vienna, and store room in the basement, heated by pure radiation heat got best indoor climate stability;

Church in Gerling in the country of Salzburg got a pure, damage preventive heating with solar support

Chapel in Schönbrunn Castle, Vienna, during EU project ‘SMooHS’ got simple wall heating, dry walls and indoor climate stability with only small winter heating.

 

Keywords: sustainability, energy-saving, indoor climate stability, museums climate, preventive conservation

The role of the Construction Sector in decreasing global energy needs

L. Bourdeau (ECTP-E2BA, Brussels, Belgium)

Abstract details
The role of the Construction Sector in decreasing global energy needs

L. Bourdeau (1)
(1) ECTP-E2BA, Brussels, Belgium

Abstract content

A key European employer and contributor to quality of life and a major energy

consumer and CO2 provider

Worth at least EUR 1.2 trillion of yearly turnover (2011), the European construction sector, including its extended value chain (e.g. material and equipment manufacturers, construction and service companies), is the largest European single activity (9.6 % GDP) and biggest industrial employer (14.6 million direct operatives, 30.7 % of industrial employment, 43.8 million indirect workers). The built environment affects the quality of life and work of all EU-citizens.

Buildings use 40 % of total EU energy consumption and generate 36 % of greenhouse gases in Europe. The construction sector is on its critical path to decarbonise the European economy by 2050, reducing its CO2 emissions by at least 80 % and its energy consumption by as much as 50 %. As the replacement rate of the existing stock is very small (1-2 % per year), acceleration is urgently needed.

Strategic and general objectives

The vision of the construction sector is to drive the creation of a high-tech building industry which turns energy efficiency into a sustainable business. Connecting construction industry to other built environment system suppliers and stakeholders would be the decisive step to reach economic, social and environmental goals. By creating and fostering a research driven paradigm shift, the construction industry would become competitive on a global level in the design, construction and operation of the built environment while sustaining local economies through job creation and skills enhancement, driven by the vast majority of SMEs active in the value chain. In this framework, the strategic objectives of the sector are to:

- Develop technologies and solutions enabling to speed up the reduction in energy use and GHG emission, e.g. through a higher renovation rate of the building stock at lower cost and to meet regulatory needs;

- Develop energy efficiency solutions in order to turn the building industry into a knowledge-driven sustainable business, with higher productivity and higher skilled employees;

- Develop innovative and smart systemic approaches for green buildings and districts.

This would ultimately create a solid foundation for continuous innovation in the building sector through sustainable partnerships, fostering an innovation eco-system across value chains, which is not project based with episodic innovation activities as current practices.

The Public-Private Partnership on Energy Efficient Buildings (PPP EeB)

The Energy-efficient Buildings (EeB) Public Private Partnership (PPP) is a joint initiative of the European Commission (EC) and the Energy Efficient Buildings Association (E2BA). This initiative aims to promote research on new methods and technologies to reduce the energy footprint and CO2 emissions related to new and retrofitted buildings across Europe. The EeB PPP was set up under FP7 and recognises the importance of research in Europe to achieve Europe’s targets of job creation and competitiveness, and to maintain leadership in the global knowledge economy. During Horizon 2020, a contractual PPP has been agreed between the E2BA and the European Commission to continue investing in research and innovation.

The research projects respond to EU priorities for new technologies, tools and systems, materials, information and communication technologies and retrofitting and renovation methodologies in order to achieve energy-efficient buildings. The projects demonstrate scientific and technological excellence across all levels from early stage conception through to demonstration of the potential for commercialisation.

110 projects have been funded so far  through the EeB PPP under the 7th Framework Programme (FP7) for 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.

 

Future pathways to a low carbon steel industry - The case of Germany till 2035

M. Arens (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany), E. Worrell, (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), W. Eichhammer (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany)

Abstract details
Future pathways to a low carbon steel industry - The case of Germany till 2035

M. Arens (1) ; E. Worrell, (2) ; W. Eichhammer (3)
(1) Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Energy Technology and Energy Systems, Karlsruhe, Germany; (2) Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Department of innovation, environmental and energy sciences, Utrecht, Netherlands; (3) Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Energy policy and energy markets, Karlsruhe, Germany

Abstract content

We analyse the diffusion factors which give explanations for innovation behaviour of individual firms in the German iron and steel industry. First, we analyse the diffusion of three energy efficient technologies for primary steelmaking (EET) from their introduction until today (top-pressure recovery turbine (TRT), basic oxygen furnace gas recovery (BOFGR) and pulverised coal injection (PCI)). We derive the uptake of these technologies both at the national level and of individual firms. Second, we analyse the impact of drivers and barriers on the decision making process of individual firms whether or not to implement these technologies. Thereby we focus on the impact of current policies (e.g. European Emission Trading System, levy for renewable energy, European Emission Directive). We give a short insight into site specific factors which shape the economics of the selected EETs. Our analysis ends with summary and conclusions.

Fixing or transferring environmental problems in the transport sector?

H.J. Walnum (Western Norway Research Institute, Sogndal, Norway)

Abstract details
Fixing or transferring environmental problems in the transport sector?

HJ. Walnum (1)
(1) Western Norway Research Institute, Environmental group, Sogndal, Norway

Abstract content

Worldwide, the transport sector produced 7.0 GtCO2eq of direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which corresponds to approximately 23% of the total energy-related CO2 emissions. Regionally, such as in the EU, the transport sector was responsible for 25% of the energy-related GHG emissions. Although the recently adopted EU target is to reduce GHG emissions levels by 80%–95% from 1990 levels by 2050, the European Commission stated that the goal for the transport sector is 60% because of its complexity. From 1970 to 2010, the direct energy use associated with transport has grown by 250% worldwide—a growth rate that is higher than any other sector.

Based on the above it is evident that the current transport systems are not sustainable. Without a substantial change in governmental policy, this trend will continue. The scope of the thesis is to examine how rich countries, such as the U.S as well as in countries and regions in the EU and the (OECD), can achieve sustainable mobility, taking into account the problems related to various transfer effects.   A reason that sustainable mobility has not been achieved could be that transfer  effects have not been fully understood by policy makers nor  in the sustainable mobility discourse (Holden, 2012). For example, increased technological efficiency and innovation are frequently discussed as strategies to mitigate climatic gas emissions and energy use in the transport sector. However, the idea of a technological and policy quick-fix is highly problematic because often a proposed solution by policy, innovation or technology only transfers the environmental problem to other life cycle stages, to other emissions categories, to other countries, or to increased demands across levels from the micro to the macro level and this situation is a paradox that needs to be addressed in future planning. 

This abstract  examines three "transfer effects": 1. Rebound effects, 2. Environmental trade-off effects and 3. Geographical transfer effects. The following research questions are addressed in the covering essay:

Are transfer effects the reason of why  energy use and Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector keep raising?

What are the similarities and differences between the transfer effects?

Why have such effects been overlooked in policy making?

What could be done to mitigate them? 

Studying rebound effects addresses how efficiency measures taken at the micro level do not necessarily lead to society-wide reduction. Despite improvements in intensity of grams of CO2 per kilometer for passenger cars in the EU and US, energy reduction has been outweighed by increased total kilometers travelled and sales of larger vehicles (Holden, 2012). This might be explained by rebound effects concerned with systemic and behavioral responses. For example, the cost savings from buying a fuel efficient car could be used to drive farther (a direct rebound effect) or to purchase other energy consuming activities. To fully understand rebound effects, I argue that it is necessary to take an interdisciplinary approach. 

Life-cycle and energy-chain analyses, which could be considered studies of indirect rebound effects, look at products from cradle-to-grave. Both compare products at the micro level and identify environmental hotspots during production and could be used to study fuels and transport systems or to compare transport systems. 

How we account for environmental transactions affects transport-emission results. Currently, international air transport of people and goods and international transport by ships are omitted from GHG-emissions inventories. They are based on the so-called Kyoto protocol way or national demarcation of accounting for GHG emissions. This implies that some of the fastest growing areas are overlooked in available GHG-emissions statistics, which are based on national territories. 

Solutions for the improvement of energy efficiency in historic buildings and districts preserving their heritage value

A. Vivarelli (National Research Council, Padova, Italy), A. Bernardi (National Research Council, Padova, Italy), F. Becherini (National Research Council, Padova, Italy), M. C. Di Tuccio (National Research Council, Padova, Italy), L. Pockelé (R.E.D. srl, Padova, Italy), T. Broström (Uppsala University, Gotland, Sweden), E. Schoenberger (Fraunhofer Institute , Holzkirchen, Germany)

Abstract details
Solutions for the improvement of energy efficiency in historic buildings and districts preserving their heritage value

A. Vivarelli (1) ; A. Bernardi (1) ; F. Becherini (1) ; MC. Di Tuccio (1) ; L. Pockelé (2) ; T. Broström (3) ; E. Schoenberger (4)
(1) National Research Council, Institute of atmospheric sciences and climate, Padova, Italy; (2) R.E.D. srl, Padova, Italy; (3) Uppsala University, Gotland, Sweden; (4) Fraunhofer Institute , Building physics ibp, Holzkirchen, Germany

Abstract content

Buildings have a significant impact on energy use and environment. Growth in population, increasing demand for building services and comfort levels, together with time spent inside buildings, assure that the upward trend in energy demand and CO2 emission will continue in the future. This situation is strongly related to the emissions from existing buildings, as 50 million buildings throughout Europe are 50 years old or more. Europe can become the leader in CO2 emission reduction by applying innovative energy efficient solutions to its built historic and cultural heritage. However, most of the current developments in energy efficiency typically address new constructions and individual buildings without considering on one hand the unique problems of historic structures and on the other hand the urban dimension.

These issues are faced within the research project EFFESUS (Energy Efficiency for EU Historic Districts’ Sustainability), funded by the European Union 7FP (Grant Agreement no. 314678). Its main objectives are: i) the study  of measures and tools to improve the energy efficiency of historic buildings and districts whilst protecting and preserving their cultural and historical values; ii) the development of new technologies as well as a software tool to support decisions on improvement measures. In particular a methodology is being developed for assessing the impact of implementation and selecting the most proper energy efficiency interventions in historical buildings and districts whilst ensuring the compatibility with their heritage values. This methodology is based on indicators, i.e. qualitative and/or quantitative information associated to the retrofit process under observation, which allows to verify the accomplishment of the goal or the related impact. These indicators are evaluated on a five point scale both for the initial conditions of the existing stock and for the conditions after the implementation of the interventions. The main output will be a Decision Support System (DSS), where the possible retrofit measures are prioritized in function of their potential impact, with the aim to assist stakeholders in decision-making. The DSS will be based on real data including also climatic change predictions.

The applicability of the technological developments, as well as the suitability of the DSS are being demonstrated in five case studies. In particular the following innovations are being tested: new thermal insulating mortars for use as plaster and render in Benediktbeuern (Germany); radiation selective coatings for outdoors in Istanbul (Turkey); blown-in aerogel for use in cavities behind existing wall finishes in Glasgow (United Kingdom); windows with improved insulation and ventilation, as well as intelligent indoor climate solutions through energy management algorithms in Budapest (Hungary); implementation of new control strategies to decrease the primary energy demand in historic buildings and districts in Santiago de Compostela (Spain).

The preliminary results of the performance assessment of the new technologies developed in EFFESUS will be presented mainly in function of the indoor environmental conditions and operational energy indicators on the basis of the monitoring activities carried out in the above mentioned five case studies. These activities have been launched in function of the readiness of the developed technologies and are now running for several months. The parameters, defined in function of the technology to be validated, are currently being measured simultaneously in a test area and in an equivalent reference area for reasons of comparison. The only exception is in Benediktbeuern where the comparison is performed before and after the application of the thermal insulating mortar. In particular the thermo-hygrometric conditions (temperatures, relative humidity, and air flow) and the energy related parameters (heat flows, energy consumption, associated cost of the energy, etc.) are being studied. These data are being used to assess the performance of the innovative solutions in terms of: indoor comfort expressed as PMV and PPD values (EN 15251), air quality (CO2 levels, ventilation rate), percentage of reduction of primary energy demand, reduction in energy consumption per m2, Kg CO2 emissions/m2, contribution of RES to the districts and buildings energy demand for heating/cooling, district heating contribution to the buildings/district energy demand.

Reducing Methane Emissions Using a Fixed Bed Reactor Under Dynamic Condition

M. Effendy (Surabaya state university, Surabaya, Indonesia), E. Wardhono (University of Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa, Cilegon, Banten, Indonesia)

Abstract details
Reducing Methane Emissions Using a Fixed Bed Reactor Under Dynamic Condition

M. Effendy (1) ; E. Wardhono (2)
(1) Surabaya state university, Mechanical engineering, Surabaya, Indonesia; (2) University of Sultan Ageng Tirtayasa, Chemical Engineering, Cilegon, Banten, Indonesia

Abstract content

The production oil and gas is the largest human-made source of methane emissions in Indonesia and the fourth largest human-made source of methane emissions globally. Methane is referred to as a potent greenhouse gas because it has a Global Warming Potential, GWP of 21. This means that methane is 21 times more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat in the atmosphere over a 100-year period. Methane emissions primarily result from normal operations, routine maintenance, leaks and system upsets from connections between pipes and vessels or to valves and equipment. Reducing these emissions can have significant environmental and economic benefits.

The catalytic treatment is one of the most reliable alternatives to reduce of methane emissions. However, due to the concentration of emitted methane is low, the flow rate changes over time and the temperature is ambient. The conventional treatment using once-through direction of fixed bed reactor operating under steady state conditions is less appropriate. For the methane content of 0.5%-v, the adiabatic temperature rise is approximately 115oC. As a result, extra external energy is required to increase the temperature of the feed gas. Reverse flow reactor was applied to overcome this problem. To increase of methane conversion may be induced by changes of the reaction rate over Pt/g-Al2O3 catalyst surface due to dynamic system operated at proper time scale. Therefore, there are two important aspects to be considered; (1) reactor design and (2) operation method. The aim of this study was to develop a new method in order to determine the reaction mechanism and rate-controlling step that occur in one dynamic cycle. The model reaction used was methane oxidation using 0,3%-wt Pt/γ-Al2O3 operated under dynamic conditions. At which the pattern of the reverse flow reactor was approached using a once-through direction of fixed bed reactor with composition modulation. It was based on the similarity of the reactor’s response measured at the outlet, which is usually used for sampling.

The method used in this study was a steady state approach consisting of 4 stages; (1) the first stage was to determine the homogeneity of the continuum model of a fixed bed reactor that will be used to validate the model reaction mechanism and the rate-controlling step in dynamic conditions. (2) The second was determination of the model reaction mechanisms and rate-controlling step of the steady state condition. (3) The third was to identify the influence of the perturbation on response of the reactor in term of conversion in the dynamic condition. Furthermore, the validation of the model reaction mechanism obtained at steady state on methane conversion obtained in the dynamic operation was performed. (4) The fourth one was to establish the model reaction mechanisms and rate-controlling step that occurs in the dynamic conditions. This identification was accomplished by taking some perturbation points in term of CH4/O2 feed gas concentration ratio involved in the dynamic range to be performed the steady state experiment. The result of this identification was subsequently conducted the segmentation in order to obtain the mechanism change plots and rate-controlling step in one cycle period. Furthermore, the validation of the model reaction mechanism and dynamic kinetic parameters with dynamic experimental data were indispensable.

The influence of the perturbation on response inducing the dynamic conditions in the reactor can be expressed by the ratio of the feed gas concentration of CH4/O2 with methane conversion obtained. The use of the model reaction rate of Langmuir-Hinshelwood on pseudo-homogeneous model of mass for 1-D could not fully describe the characteristics of methane conversion obtained through experiments in the dynamic conditions. The deviation in term of error obtained was very large, i.e. 40%. In one cycle of dynamic operation, there were three mechanisms of reaction involved, i.e. the total oxidation of methane to CO2 and H2O, the partial oxidation of methane to CO2 and H2, and the decomposition of methane to C and H2O. The transition of reaction mechanism in one cycle of dynamic operation was based on the ratio changing of the concentration of CH4/O2 due to feed composition modulation applied.

The role of energy efficiency in meeting UK carbon targets

U. Collier (Committee on Climate Change, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The role of energy efficiency in meeting UK carbon targets

U. Collier (1)
(1) Committee on Climate Change, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The United Kingdom was the first country to legislate ambitious climate change targets through its 2008 Climate Change Act. The Committee on Climate Change was set up to advice on the level of the carbon targets and on specific opportunities to achieve them.

This presentation will examine the role of energy efficiency in the Committee’s carbon budget advice, focusing on the buildings sector. Buildings account for 37% of UK greenhouse gas emissions and with an ageing building stock, there is much scope for efficiency improvement. Furthermore, improving buildings energy efficiency has various co-benefits, including the alleviation of fuel poverty. This is of particular importance as the decarbonisation policies are expected to raise energy prices. Energy efficiency therefore plays a crucial role in keeping bills affordable.

The presentation will cover both analytical and policy issues.  On the analytical side, we will discuss how the Committee estimates abatement potential from energy efficiency, what data limitations we have encountered and what work is underway to overcome them. We will also present our estimates of the impact of decarbonisation policies on energy prices and bills, and the scope for energy efficiency to offset these.

On the policy side, we will look at the UK Government’s current energy efficiency policy for buildings and assess what further action is needed to meet carbon budgets. We will highlight the importance of a holistic approach to energy efficiency and heat decarbonisation.

An ex-ante quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap

E. Ó Broin (CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France), É. Mata, (Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden), J. Nässén, (Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden), F. Johnsson, (Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden)

Abstract details
An ex-ante quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap

E. Ó Broin (1) ; É. Mata, (2) ; J. Nässén, (2) ; F. Johnsson, (2)
(1) CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; (2) Chalmers University of Technology, Energy and environment, Göteborg, Sweden

Abstract content

This work presents a methodology for estimating ex-ante the energy efficiency gap and key related energy system parameters. An ex-ante quantification of the, ‘energy efficiency gap’ is defined as the difference between market and techno-economic potentials. The ex-ante market potential is estimated from coefficients established with a top-down (econometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970 to 2005 (Ó Broin et al, 2015). The ex-ante techno-economic estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS) that assesses the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures (Mata et al, 2013). We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030.

Background: The true size of the energy efficiency gap remains unclear (Gillingham and Palmer, 2014). Findings from research on the energy efficiency gap could help policy makers generate social and private benefits from accelerating the diffusion of energy-efficient technologies (Gerarden et al., 2014). Although the general thrust of contemporary research on the energy efficiency gap is focusing on empirical studies that describe decision making among heterogeneous energy-users (Gillingham and Palmer, 2014) the authors of this work believe that there is also a need for system-level or sector-level studies which can give insights into key system-level parameters affecting the adoption of efficiency technologies, such as energy prices and discount rates. Furthermore, although the historical failure of the techno-economic energy efficiency potentials to be realised has been well documented ex-post, few, if any, studies have undertaken an ex-ante measure of potentials with the intent of learning from the comparison of the market and techno-economic potentials.

Results: In comparison to the level of energy use in 2005 (74 TWh), the top-down model predicts for 2030 reductions in demand of 21 TWh. The bottom-up model predicts corresponding reductions in demand of 31 TWh. Thus, there is an energy efficiency gap calculated of 10 TWh in 2030. An implicit discount rate of 10% would render the results from the bottom-up modelling identical to those from the top-down modelling. Conversely a doubling of the historic rate of support for technology diffusion and conservation through, for example, support schemes and regulations, would render the results from the top-down modelling identical to those from the bottom-up modelling.

Increasing energy prices as a policy measure, as implemented in this work, does not lead to significant additional savings, as shown by the top-down model. The combination of high energy prices and a long-term price elasticity of -0.29 would ceteris paribus result in a decrease in demand of only 4 TWh by Year 2030 as compared to a low energy price scenario. This suggests that while higher energy prices may achieve a global carbon target or cover the requirements of a Pigovian tax, at the residential sector level they are not so effective. The findings of this work i.e. the magnitude of the implicit discount rate; the price elasticity; and the size of efficiency gap; provide useful guidelines for policy formulation to meet individual country and regional climate and energy goals.

References: Gerarden, T.D., Newell, R.G., Stavins, R.N., & Stowe, R.C. (2014). An Assessment of the Energy-Efficiency Gap and its Implications for Climate-Change Policy. Discussion Paper ES 2014-3, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements. Cambridge, Mass. Available from: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/es-03_gerarden-etal2.pdf

Gillingham, K., & Palmer, K. (2014). Bridging the Energy Efficiency Gap: Policy Insights from Economic Theory and Empirical Evidence. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/reep/ret021

Mata, E., Sasic Kalagasidis, A., & Johnsson, F. (2013). Energy usage and potential for energy saving measures in Swedish households. Energy Policy. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.12.023.

Ó Broin E., Mata É., Nässén J., & Johnsson F. (2015) Quantification of the Energy Efficiency Gap in the Swedish Residential Sector. Energy Efficiency. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12053-015-9323-9

A design matrix for energy sustainability of buildings with double skin envelopes in warming climates in the tropics

U. Rajapaksha (University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka), H. Rupasinghe (University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka), I. Rajapaksha. (University of Moratuwa, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka)

Abstract details
A design matrix for energy sustainability of buildings with double skin envelopes in warming climates in the tropics

U. Rajapaksha (1) ; H. Rupasinghe (1) ; I. Rajapaksha. (1)
(1) University of Moratuwa, Architecture, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka

Abstract content

Adapting buildings to extreme temperatures due to climate change, demands a collaborative effort to deal with climate, occupants and buildings. A current technology to assist with this approach is called “bio-climatic design approach”. It is seen as an appropriate basis for climate responsive design which involves the way buildings filter the climate for occupants’ comforts. This approach has gained recognition for the application in medium scale buildings in moderate climates. However, this is less researched and problematic due to indoor overheating potential in warm humid climates. Thus needs to be investigated in   the effort of adapting buildings to warming climates.  

The project will contribute to establish that building design can play a key role in combating extreme temperatures involving a shift towards new bio-climatic design solutions focusing on passive climate control with form and fabric of buildings. The method used in this research reviews trends in predicted climatic behaviors in tropics, and evaluates critical practice exemplars found in local climatic zones in Sri Lanka. The project presents a generalized matrix of evidence-based interventions from associations that publicize case studies and literature exploring the potential for adapting buildings to predicted extreme climates. Use of onsite investigations, and advanced computer-based Design-Builder simulations for assessing and predicting adaptive capabilities of buildings will become essential components of the method. 

Innovative potential of envelope dependency, which optimizes the building-climate interplay for reducing the need for energy in building operation, is highlighted with the matrix. This is more complex and critical when envelope dependency is not fully resolved in buildings located in the tropics where environmental loads external to the buildings contribute more significantly to the thermal load profiles of buildings. Unresolved envelop dependency contributes to indoor overheating in many ways. The paper takes this challenge by developing a cross-dimensional performance approach of buildings focusing on the dependency of the microclimate, plan form, sectional form and envelope. 

An integrated characterization of energy sustainability of buildings is proposed based on the matrix, which is a conceptualization of built environment as a building-climate-occupancy system. The matrix aims at strengthening envelope dependency of a building considering it as a bio-climatic entity contributing to sustainability and low emission building practices. One holistic performance indicator is used for evaluating such contribution, so expressing the climate modification – the reduction from ambient to internal air temperature. Discussion on the efficacy of the matrix shows that it works as an empirical tool supporting to gaining an insight in resolving any dualities associated with performance within the envelope dependency.     

The research found that most certified green buildings in the country are either of core dependent or envelope dependent but highly energy intensive. Methodology involved few field investigations of selected certified green buildings using data loggers that collected air temperature, radiation, wind flow and envelope surface temperatures and the use of a computer based Design-Builder simulation program. Empirical findings showed the criticality of the problem and unresolved duality associated with envelope dependent forms – heat gain Vs passive influence. The buildings are found to be highly energy intensive with an Energy Utility Index around 196-260- KWh/m2/a although they are certified either as Gold or Platinum. Research further showed indoor-overheating situations when buildings were allowed to run free without air conditioning.

The simulation program used to redefine the energy sustainability of the most critical case building introducing resolved envelope dependency involving a high thermal mass double skin external envelope and a vertical atrium for thermal buoyancy effect. Calibrated simulation results provide evidence of passive cooling with internal air temperatures in all multi levels of the building moving 2-3.5 degrees C below the ambient levels due to improved and resolved envelope dependency with heat removal, stack force and night ventilation. Findings showed a reduction of EUI up to 98 KWh/m2/a suggesting that the matrix can play a positive role in innovating envelope dependency for emission reduction.

Strategic policy packages to deliver energy efficiency in buildings – theoretical analysis and international evidence

S. Thomas (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany), V. Aydin, (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany), D. Kiyar, (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany), L. Tholen, (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany), M. Venjakob, (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany)

Abstract details
Strategic policy packages to deliver energy efficiency in buildings – theoretical analysis and international evidence

S. Thomas (1) ; V. Aydin, (2) ; D. Kiyar, (2) ; L. Tholen, (2) ; M. Venjakob, (2)
(1) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, RG Energy, Transport and Climate Policy, Wuppertal, Germany; (2) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany

Abstract content

Energy efficiency in buildings and appliances has the potential to halve the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from that sector by 2050, despite growth in building and appliance stock. However, this potential will not become reality without policy support, due to complex market chains with many types of actors, and a plethora of barriers they face. What are, then, effective packages of policies and measures to stimulate energy efficiency in new and existing buildings, and appliances? In recent research, we have addressed the question in a systematic way – by combining theoretical evidence on what policy support markets need, and an international comparison on which packages of policies have worked well.

On the theoretical side, the analysis starts with the barriers but also market-inherent incentives that the different types of market participants face. This enables to derive a recommended package combining the types of regulatory, economic and other policies and measures the actors need to overcome all these barriers and strengthen incentives. On the empirical side, evidence on model examples of good practice for policy packages has been collected and their design and impact compared, to check if advanced countries have indeed used the combination of policies we derived from the actor-centred analysis. Finally, the model examples, lessons learned, and the preconditions for their transferability are used to validate the generic policy package identified in the theoretical analysis.

In this way, we found that the recommendable policy package for new buildings is similar to the well-known one for appliances, but with the objective to mainstream nearly zero energy buildings. By contrast, the task for existing buildings is two-dimensional – increasing the depth of renovation first, to savings of 50 to 80%, and then the rate of energy-efficient renovation to 2% or more p.a. – and so the policy package needs more emphasis on individual advice, incentives, and financing. The paper will present the recommended packages as well as a comparison of existing national policy packages from Denmark, Germany, Singapore, Tunisia and California (USA) and what we learned from it for effective packages and implementation.

Toward a Development and Co-Benefits Focused INDC for India

R. Khosla (Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India), N. Dubash (Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India), K. R. Sharma (Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India), N. Rao (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract details
Toward a Development and Co-Benefits Focused INDC for India

R. Khosla (1) ; N. Dubash (1) ; KR. Sharma (1) ; N. Rao (2)
(1) Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi, India; (2) IIASA, Energy, Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract content

India’s response to global climate change is rooted in meeting the country’s development needs, and aspires to be consistent with its sustainable development objectives. This is articulated as a co-benefits approach in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and in India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change. The approach emphasizes measures which promote development objectives such as the ability to provide sufficient energy, ensure access to quality energy for all, address energy security and local environmental concerns such as air pollution, land and water use, while also yielding co-benefits for addressing climate change effectively. In light of this context, our paper examines recent projections for India’s possible energy and climate futures by synthesizing and comparing the outcomes of seven policy salient modeling studies from India. The analysis illustrates the limited extent to which the available studies inform an achievement of co-benefits, that should underpin India’s energy and emissions approach. It also identifies the basis for focusing on key areas of mitigation potential and those of uncertainty that require further analysis. The range of projections is assessed, including the reasons for the range. Based on an assessment of recent energy studies, the second part of the paper develops a methodology to overcome the existing limitations of the studies with respect to characterizing co-benefits. We delve into a single sector and use the case of energy efficiency in India’s buildings, which has amongst the highest mitigation potentials, to showcase an approach to operationalizing co-benefits. A multi-criteria decision analysis framework is used. The results are based on a range of stakeholder views and a detailed evaluation of trade-offs (economic, technological, institutional) which can be required when selecting between different policy options. Approaching mitigation options using the showcased framework makes policy actions comparable and also takes into account questions of implementation and feasibility, which model results alone are not able to address. In examining the building energy efficiency case, the paper provides a proof-of-concept of operationalizing co-benefits which can be extended to other sectors. Importantly, it demonstrates how India’s climate commitment in the form of an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution can be built around a bottom-up analysis of various domestic sectoral actions that achieve multiple objectives of development. In conclusion, this work presents an approach to climate and development for India that is a combination of an economy-wide metric (which does not rely on only one modeling output), and a set of analytical sectoral actions with a consideration of co-benefits and resulting tradeoffs. Such an approach lends robustness and credibility to India's domestic and international climate and development stance. The paper is amongst the early studies that attempts to further the literature beyond co-benefits conceptualization to its actual operationalization in the context of low carbon planning.

 

Note on Selecting a Parallel Session Theme: We would like to submit this abstract for the first half of Session 08, Climate Change and Development: 4406 (a), Theme Day 4, that deals with co-benefits.

The importance of the sun as clean source of energy in the design of cold storage for health care facilities in africa

M. R. D. Seke (University of South Africa, Gauteng, South Africa)

Abstract details
The importance of the sun as clean source of energy in the design of cold storage for health care facilities in africa

MRD. Seke (1)
(1) University of South Africa, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Gauteng, South Africa

Abstract content

Sun is the main source of energy to several planets, especially to the Earth and its inhabitants. It lightens the surface of the Earth free of charge, and its energy is clean.

However, we do not fully benefit from the sun’s energy which is precious to the humanity and can be used as the best source of electricity. The solar energy that the Earth’s atmosphere, seas, forests and soils benefit is more than billions of Joules per year.

Africa is a place of hope and has a better position in term of climate change but its population, in majority, is poor and exposed to variable viruses, diseases and threats which are still killing due to lack of access to cure and drugs of quality.

In laboratories where medicines are manufactured and in hospitals where human bloods are collected and stored to both improve and better the conditions of patients, we need their good preservation either in transit or in storage.                     

In rural and urban areas, solar powered cold room units would be of wide benefit to the healthcare facilities.

This study is based on theoretical analysis and calculations of Solar Powered Cold storage for healthcare facilities in Africa, as well as some comparisons made between different sources of energy to keep thermolabile medicines and blood bags in good conditions according to the pharmaceutical guides and health standards.              

As the future of the Earth depends on its ecosystem, the gratuity of the solar energy is the precious fuel which led our design project. 

The methodology used in the present study employs both qualitative and quantitative research techniques.

Integration Assessment of China's Energy Efficiency: Index Decomposition and Frontier Approach Applications

J. Jiang (Insitute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, CASS, Beijing, China), Z. Tao, (Insitute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, CASS, Beijing, China), R. Sheng, (Insitute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, CASS, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Integration Assessment of China's Energy Efficiency: Index Decomposition and Frontier Approach Applications

J. Jiang (1) ; Z. Tao, (1) ; R. Sheng, (1)
(1) Insitute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, CASS, Beijing, China

Abstract content

Policies for improving energy efficiency are one of the most effective ways to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of energy and to relieve environmental pressures for the Chinese Government. Because of several indicators to measure energy efficiency, resulting in different evaluation effects of policy implementation. First, this paper compares the energy efficiency measures from the supply side and demand side of energy, that is, a single element of energy efficiency and energy efficiency based on total factor productivity (TFP) estimates. In order to study the effects of energy efficiency change and its driving factors, the paper adopts index decomposition models and frontier approach, the former implies that production is effective, and the later provides a variety of frontier estimation methods, including non-parametric estimation of data envelopment analysis (DEA) and parameter estimation of stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Based on China's latest available statistical data, the paper applies Divisia index decomposition to two different definition of energy intensity, e.g. final energy consumption per unit value added of industries, per capita residential energy consumption; then, using DEA of the total factor productivity estimates across-sector energy efficiency and empirical research on the driving factors of energy efficiency. Finally, based on model results, it presented energy efficiency policy implications at macro and industry level.

Taking into account the final energy consumption does not include the intermediate conversion process energy consumption, compared to the total energy consumption, this paper argues that final energy consumption can be used to more accurately reflect the energy efficiency of various industries, defines industrial energy intensity as ration to final energy consumption to industrial value added. Since only 6 industries have detailed statistical data on energy consumption by fuel type, this article analyzes only 6 industries energy efficiency; for residential energy, the average residential energy consumption defined as household energy efficiency. Energy balance tables of 1996-2012 in China energy Statistical Yearbook and other data, 6 industry and residential energy efficiency used Divisia index AMDI model decomposing, results showed that economic policy and energy policy factors in different periods on energy efficiency change play different roles with different contribution rates. In terms of per capita residential energy, economic development and the improvement of building energy efficiency play a major role.  

Total factor energy efficiency, that evaluates energy efficiency during economic production process, is considered energy as one of production elements input with labor, and capital together, while also considered "bad" outputs, such as CO2, wastewater, that is, model development is under environment regulation of constraint. The paper uses directional distance function of DEA method to estimate industrial energy efficiency, and empirical analysis on effects factors of energy efficiency. Preliminary results show that overall China's energy efficiency tends to decline, but with the implementation of energy-efficiency policies in recent years, beginning in 2007 on energy efficiency has gone up. From the perspective of industry, increased industrial energy efficiency is quite obvious, while transportation, agriculture showed a downward trend. Analysis the economic development and foreign direct investment (FDI) of influencing factors shows a significant positive impact on total factor energy efficiency, while endowment structure has a negative effect, reflecting the disadvantages of excessive capital input. Industrial structure, energy prices and environmental regulation have the negative effects on energy efficiency, due to the imbalance of regional development in China, as well as the energy market is not perfect, this section needs further in-depth analysis.

Acknowledges: This paper was based on work supported by National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No. 2012CB955801, and Scholar Program of Innovation Project in Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (2014-2018).

Sustainable building: Passive House combined with renewable energy

J. Grove-Smith (Passive House Institute, Darmstadt, Germany), F. Wolfgang (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), B. Krick, (Passive House Institute, Darmstadt, Germany)

Abstract details
Sustainable building: Passive House combined with renewable energy

J. Grove-Smith (1) ; F. Wolfgang (2) ; B. Krick, (1)
(1) Passive House Institute, Darmstadt, Germany; (2) University of Innsbruck, Institute for structural engineering and material sciences, Innsbruck, Austria

Abstract content

This contribution will highlight the importance of energy efficiency as most important measure to address the impact of buildings on climate change. It further explores the correlations between energy efficiency and renewable energy in the context of sustainable use of available resources. Specific project examples and regional approaches will be presented to illustrate the potential impact, e.g. experiences from the EU-wide project PassREg supported by Intelligent Energy Europe.

 

Over a third of the total energy consumed in developed countries is required for operating buildings, especially to heat them. This consumption can be reduced by up to 90 % using Passive House technology, and the remaining demand can be met sustainably using renewable energy. The Passive House (PH) has proven itself as a reliable building standard with significant energy savings in a range of climates with more then 50 000 units built worldwide. Hence, the Passive House Standard is not just an attractive solution for the energy transition; combined with renewable energies it is also a blueprint for the Nearly Zero-Energy Building (NZEB) stipulated in the European Buildings Directive, which will come into effect in 2021.

 

In order to provide reliable guidance for the combination of energy efficiency and renewable energy (RE), new assessment categories are being introduced by the Passive House Institute:

  • PH Classic: The established Passive House Standard
  • PH Plus: Increased level of overall energy efficiency and some RE production
  • PH Premium: Very high level of overall energy efficiency and significant amounts RE production

The approach for the assessment of PH classes specifically does not promote the simple annual offset of on-site energy demand and energy production in context only of the individual project. Direct offsetting disregards important aspects such as energy losses due to storage and space availability for RE production. The Passive House assessment is thus based on a contextualised methodology, which anticipates the energy transition and considers the building in an environment where only renewable energy is used. In this scenario, primary electricity is produced only from renewable sources. Some of this electricity can be used directly; storage capacities are however needed to buffer surplus RE energy so that it can be used during time periods with less RE availability. This temporary energy storage always implies losses, especially if it needs to bridge long-term energy compensations, e.g. seasonal effects from surplus RE supply during summer to cover RE shortfall during winter. Depending on the type of energy application as well as on the locally available RE resources, the amount of required storage varies, and thus the associated losses. Based on these interrelationships, new weighting factors are being introduced: the so-called PER factors (Primary Energy Renewable). The PER factor for domestic electricity use, for example, is comparatively low because the demand is fairly constant throughout the year and thus the share of electricity that can be used without intermediate storage is high. Energy demand for heating, on the other hand, occurs only in winter, which calls for seasonal energy storage and thus results in a high PER factor.

 

The assessment approach emphasises the importance of efficiency when it comes to heating energy, which is exactly what the Passive House Standard stands for. Efficiency in this sector has the highest potential of putting energy resources (e.g. renewable electricity) to use responsibly and thus mitigating the impact of buildings on climate change.

Promoting Renewable Energy in India for Sustainable Agriculture:Issues and Challenges

N. Kaur (Panjab University, Chandigarh, India), R. Kaur (Panjab University, Mohali, Punjab, India)

Abstract details
Promoting Renewable Energy in India for Sustainable Agriculture:Issues and Challenges

N. Kaur (1) ; R. Kaur (2)
(1) Panjab University, Public administration department, Chandigarh, India; (2) Panjab University, Public Administration Department, Mohali, Punjab, India

Abstract content

Agriculture and its allied sectors constitute as the largest livelihood provider to and also contributes  to 18 per cent of GDP. India accounts for 17% of the world population but has only  4 % share in energy consumption  and within this very less share of renewable energy  usage.( Pillai and Banerjee 2009).  The state of Punjab occupies less than 2 per cent of geographical area but accounts for 17 per cent of wheat  and 11 per cent rice production  in national pool. Inspite of green revolution, desertification, land degradation in the form of depletion of soil fertility ,reduction in groundwater table and furthermore less supply of electricity and wider gap in demand and power supply of power had aggravated the problems of the small and marginal farmers.

The statistical facts regarding degradation of land and non-availability of continuous power supply   depicts the volatile picture of crumbling agriculture sector  and its impact on sustainable livelihood. In order to address the problems, Government of India has formulated many policies and programmes at Union level and State level  like National Mission on Energy Efficiency, Biomass Energy for Rural India, Solar and Wind Energy Projects .It  had also set up various institutes and organisations i.e The Solar Energy Centre ,A Centre for Wind Energy Technology and Solar Energy Corporation of India. These institutes works for promotion of renewable energy resources and works with collaboration with State Governments and other allied departments.

An Attempt has been made in this paper to assess the implementation of various initiatives of Government of India to address the complex problem of degradation of environment and promotion of renewable energy resources. This Paper is written by using secondary sources. The data is collected from Annual  Reports of  Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Government of India, Bureau of Energy Efficiency  and Annual Reports of State Governments, books, journals, internet, websites of agencies who are involved in Energy Conservation in India. SWOT is used to assess the implementation of Promotion of Renewable resources in India.

The finding clearly reflects that  Innovations for use of renewable energy must be promoted through community based financial organizations(CBFOs), co-operative societies and in order have to make access to these programmes to farmers. Well organised programmes must be organised at village level  in order in increase awareness and access of the farmers. Building communication between people can only help in dissemination of techniques for using wind and solar energy for energy generation

Strategical interventions by the state through policies and programmes  for use of renewable energy and active participation of  farmers in implementation will pave the way towards the sustainable agriculture by using renewable resources of energy generation.

 

 

 

Impacts of Energy Efficiency Improvements in Transportation Sector on Future Emissions and Air Quality in Thailand

S. Garivait (JGSEE, KMUTT, Bangkok, Thailand), P. Cheewaphongphan, (JGSEE, KMUTT, Bangkok, Thailand), A. Junpen, (JGSEE, KMUTT, Bangkok, Thailand), T. B. T. Pham (JGSEE, KMUTT, Bangkok, Thailand), T. Boonman, (JGSEE, KMUTT, Bangkok, Thailand), S. Chatani, (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan)

Abstract details
Impacts of Energy Efficiency Improvements in Transportation Sector on Future Emissions and Air Quality in Thailand

S. Garivait (1) ; P. Cheewaphongphan, (1) ; A. Junpen, (1) ; TBT. Pham (1) ; T. Boonman, (1) ; S. Chatani, (2)
(1) JGSEE, KMUTT, Environmental Division, Bangkok, Thailand; (2) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract content

As other developing countries in Asia, Thailand is accomplishing rapid economic growth during the last decades. The expanding economic activities have resulted in significant increase of energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as well as heavy air pollution. Transportation, especially related to on-road, has been recognized as the top energy consuming sector since the beginning of 1990s. Also, it has been forecasted that energy efficiency improvements in this sector would contribute to the highest energy saving, up to more than 16,000 ktoe in 2030, and consequently to a significant national petroleum oil import reduction.

In this study, we evaluate the impacts of current and possible future on-road transport emissions on air quality in Thailand from 2010 to 2050. Ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM) are selected as indicators of air quality, because they are recognized as the two major air pollutants both in urban and rural areas in the country. To this end, we first developed the Thailand’s emission inventory of all sources using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS)-Model. We develop two possible scenarios of future emissions: a scenario where technologies and legislations are the same as those applied in 2010 (BAU), and a scenario where energy efficiency improvements are applied following the national Energy Efficiency Development Plan 2012-2035 (EEDP). The EEDP scenario has been selected as it constitutes the latest policy formulated by the Thai government, and consequently represents the case that would possibly occur in 2030 onward.  In order to analyze and evaluate the national air quality response to on-road transport emissions in 2010, 2020, 2030, and 2050, we set up an air quality modeling system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (WRF/CAMx).

We will evaluate the model 2010 results with observations obtained from the 64 air quality monitoring stations operated by the Pollution Control Department (PCD), Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE), Thailand. The emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), primary particulate matter with diameters lesser than 10 microns and 2.5 microns (PM10 and PM2.5), and their components including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) in 2010 will be analyzed versus those found for BAU and EEDP in 2020, 2030 and 2050. The emission reductions from BAU to EEDP scenarios will be described and discussed to assess the effectiveness of energy efficiency measures put in place. Changes in O3 and PM from 2010 to 2050 will be presented and discussed to evaluate the impacts of future emissions on the air quality improvement.

Energy security and climate policies: An unequal marriage

J. Jewell (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria), A. Cherp (Central European University, Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract details
Energy security and climate policies: An unequal marriage

J. Jewell (1) ; A. Cherp (2)
(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria; (2) Central European University, Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, Budapest, Hungary

Abstract content

The quest for energy security and concerns over climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions are top energy policy priorities worldwide. To complement the growing body of literature on energy security implications of climate change mitigation, this paper examines the two-way interaction between pursuing energy independence and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Using 5 state-of-the-art energy-economy models and 6 long-term global scenarios, our analysis calls for closer and more thoughtful coordination between these policy priorities. First, we show that the pursuit of ambitious yet realistic energy independence targets would result in an insignificant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (5%-15% over the 21st century compared to the Baseline) that will not be sufficient for achieving even the current modest climate pledges. In other words, the climate will not be saved as a 'side-effect' of energy security policies. Second, fulfilling the existing climate pledges would not significantly affect energy imports of major economies though pursuing stringent climate stabilization targets would radically reduce these imports. Third, the modeled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of the current climate pledges but ten times lower than those of the stringent climate policies. In other words, advocates of cost-efficient energy independence may have little reason to support either stringent climate policies (because of their significantly higher costs) or current climate pledges (because of their relatively minor impact on global energy.

Key Issues in Energy, Climate Change and Environment

A. Liwayway (International Energy Agency, Paris, France), D. Best, (International Energy Agency, Paris, France), C. Hood, (International Energy Agency, Paris, France), C. Lee (International Energy Agency, Paris, France), E. Levina, (International Energy Agency, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Key Issues in Energy, Climate Change and Environment

A. Liwayway (1) ; D. Best, (1) ; C. Hood, (1) ; C. Lee (1) ; E. Levina, (1)
(1) International Energy Agency, Paris, France

Abstract content

Policies that respond to climate change and other environmental issues will increasingly impact the development of the global energy sector. The transition to low-carbon economies will need to be carefully managed, as the provision of secure, affordable energy is critical for economic growth and social development. More than ever, there is a need for a fuller understanding of the opportunities to promote synergies between energy, environmental and climate policies.

Energy, Climate Change, and Environment: 2014 Insights helps address this need with indepth analysis of selected policy questions at the energy-climate interface, including:

  • How can we accelerate the transition from (i.e., “unlock”) existing high-emissions infrastructure?
  • What are the best ways to design cost-effective emissions trading systems that fit with national circumstances?
  • What are some alternative energy-specific metrics that support near-term emissions reductions and long-term decarbonisation of the energy sector?
  • And, in the special focus of this report, can curbing local air pollution help reconcile energy priorities with environmental sustainability, including greenhouse gas mitigation?

Addressing these questions will help inform decisions that can boost decarbonisation of the energy sector while taking into account security and economic objectives. This report also features an update of key energy and emissions statistics for ten world regions that should interest energy practitioners and climate policy makers alike

The 3 CRISIS: EEE (ENERGY, ECOLOGY AND ECONOMY)

G. Quartieri (IUSR http://www.unisrita.it, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy), E. Chavez (National University of San Marcos, Lima, Peru)

Abstract details
The 3 CRISIS: EEE (ENERGY, ECOLOGY AND ECONOMY)

G. Quartieri (1) ; E. Chavez (2)
(1) IUSR http://www.unisrita.it, PHYSICS, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy; (2) National University of San Marcos, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, OIKOS Asociation., Lima, Peru

Abstract content

Our common future is conditioned by three World crisis: Energy, Ecology and Economy

ones. To face them it is necessary to implement an inter disciplinary approach capable to

find the interlink of these three issues. The present paper wants to apply system Σ

approach to discover the possible connections among energy, ecology and economy

disciplines. Those linkages should be able to propose change and unveil possible hidden

interlinks.

System approach implies define, operation and control of overall and global Σ system

defined by its structure SΣ, its specific parameters PΣ and its variability VΣ. The system Σ

depends upon EEE: Σ = f (E, E, E,). Out of the three crisis , the first and most important

one is the energy that has a urgent need for real and right definition of cost, relation,

availability, and proportion among fossil (oil, gas and coal), renewable and nuclear

sources. Second one is the ecology with an holistic approach to the ecosystem services

and their importance in the sustainability due to its inherent importance in different climate

scenarios.

The third one is the economy .  

In this global context, paramount is the economy deception that acts and works as

director. Knowledge and information economy appears to be the most probable way to

cope with common future overcoming the economy deception phase and present difficulty.

Quality of life has been improved according to almost exponential pattern during past

ages. However, human quality of life is nowadays strongly influenced by the Standard

Environmental Impact Factor I = PxAxT, in different Countries (super-developed,

developed and under-developed and so on) of the World. Same approach is valid for all

the biodiverse beings. There is a strong need of interlinks among these three main

concepts of EEE. From the history point of view the classical main causes of World

degradation, by starting with population reduction, have been wars, pestilences and

famines. To cope with a better future, these main causes can and must be avoided,

starting with a strong improvement of science, knowledge and information among people.

Consequently, the solution for an appropriate common future is to build a new economy

based upon undeceived energy and ecology (including biodiversity) knowledge and

information among people all over the World. To these purposes and to get over the EEE

crisis, the holistic approach i.e. the system Σ approach has to be applied in order to delete

deceptions anywhere and anytime.

Unconventional Gas in the Context of Annex 1 Climate Policy

J. Broderick (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom), K. Anderson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom), R. Wood, (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Unconventional Gas in the Context of Annex 1 Climate Policy

J. Broderick (1) ; K. Anderson (1) ; R. Wood, (1)
(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, Manchester, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Recent work has illustrated the geographic distribution of ‘unburnable’ fossil fuel reserves under climate policy constraints (McGlade and Ekins, 2015). Natural gas is often referred to as a transition fuel but typically with little specific qualification of quantities of consumption, rates of transition and end point targets. All of these aspects can be informed by a national cumulative emissions budget approach (e.g. Friedlingstein et al, 2014). We therefore consider national and temporal dimensions of unconventional oil and gas production and consumption taking the UK case of shale gas development as an illustrative example. Recoverable quantities are found to be susbtantially lower than anticipated in UK energy policy discourses. The evidence and arguments presented are largely applicable to other unconventional gas resources such as coal bed methane (CBM), underground coal gasification (UCG) and shale oil, in other Annex 1 (industrialised) nations.

Shale gas and shale oil are fossil fuels produced by hydraulically fracturing, ‘fracking’, impermeable shale strata. Gas and oil residing in these and similarly impermeable reservoirs, such as coal measures, are termed “unconventional” resources. Technological developments in this area have substantially increased expectations of recoverable fossil fuel resources (McGlade et al 2013). The scope for unconventional oil and gas production and consumption in Annex 1 countries to contribute efforts to avoid the 2°C characterisation of dangerous climate change has been outlined to date (Broderick and Wood, 2014). Under reasonable assumptions of national and sectoral apportionment, the simple arithmetic of emissions budgets make it clear that Annex 1 nations require a transition to a low carbon energy system in the next two decades (Anderson and Bows, 2011). This limits the time available over which unconventional resources may be extracted and combusted and hence quantities likely to be recovered under a stringent climate regime. We quantitatively illustrate this in relation to existing UK regulations, structured by the Climate Change Act (2009), and the emissions budgets arising. Conditions for oil and gas export, including a quantitative assessment of the prospects for carbon capture and storage (CCS), are then discussed in relation to global emissions budgets and recent developments in the US energy industry.

Anderson, K. and A. Bows (2011). "Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences 369(1934): 20-44.

Broderick, J. and R. Wood (2014). “Climate Change Impacts of Shale Gas Production” in Fracking, R. E. Hester and R. M. Harrison (eds), Published by Royal Society of Chemistry, Cambridge, 2014. ISBN: 978-1-84973-920-7

Friedlingstein, P., R. M. Andrew, J. Rogelj, G. P. Peters, J. G. Canadell, R. Knutti, G. Luderer, M. R. Raupach, M. Schaeffer, D. P. van Vuuren and C. Le Quere (2014). "Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets." Nature Geoscience 7(10): 709-715.

McGlade, C. and P. Ekins (2015). "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 degrees C." Nature 517(7533): 187-U143.

McGlade, C., Speirs, J., and S. Sorrell (2013) Unconventional gas - A review of regional and global resource estimates, Energy (55) 571-584

Adaptation to climate change in Tampere Region, Finland

T. Frisk (Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for Pirkanmaa, Tampere, Finland)

Abstract details
Adaptation to climate change in Tampere Region, Finland

T. Frisk (1)
(1) Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for Pirkanmaa, Environmental Information, Tampere, Finland

Abstract content

Adaptation to climate change will be one of the most important issues in the different regions of Europe. Adaptation plans cannot be made only internationally or nationally but local and regional authorities must have the main be responsibility for adaptation planning. One of the four main themes of the Climate and Energy Strategy of Tampere Region is adaptation to climate change. The purpose of this presentation is to deal with the aims and the proposed actions of adaptation in Tampere Region.

In the strategy, the main general aim of adaptation is that people and different organizations of the region are reserved to governance of climate change phenomena. The aim is that Impacts of climate change have been studied, their importance has been assessed and the most important actions of adaptation have been carried out in a cost-effective way, taking into account the aims of mitigation of climate change. Another aim is that awareness of the impacts of climate change and the need of adaptation has increased. It is important that people realize that the change is permanent and the threats and also the possibilities of the changes are taken into account. For achieving the general aims, six main actions have been acknowledged:

  • Research is utilized and comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change is made, as well as risk analyses and considerations of vulnerability.
  • Skills of ordinary people in adaptation and reservation to the impacts of climate change are improved.
  • Proactive and cost-effective actions of adaptation are carried out in practice.
  • Adaptation to climate change is taken into account in the Biodiversity Programme of Tampere Region.
  • The Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for Pirkanmaa (CETEP) is coordinating the cooperation in adaptation to climate change.
  • In adaptation, the cooperation over the borders of the regions is considered.

More detailed aims have been presented for increased precipitation and humidity, increased temperature and extreme events. One of the main aims is that the risks of increased precipitation and humidity have been assessed and the most necessary actions have been carried out. Attention must be paid to the following issues for example: the amount of storm water and the capacity of sewerage systems, the condition of roads and streets, the increase of nutrient leaching from agricultural areas, regulation of lakes and rivers, and the impacts of increased humidity on houses and other constructions.

The main aims connected with increased temperature are that new animal and plant species (including cultivated plants and trees) can be utilized, harmful alien species are recognized and their distributions are monitored and restricted, and cooling of houses is carried out taking into account requirements of energy efficiency. Attention will also be paid the impacts of increased temperature on human health.

When extreme events are concerned, one of the main aims is that adaptation planning in the different sectors (local communes, industry, service, households) is sufficient. The other two main aims are that forecasts and informing about extreme events has improved and that the basic functions of society have been secured during more drastic and more often occurring extreme conditions.

For monitoring the proposed actions of the Climate and Energy Strategy of Tampere Region, a working group has been founded. The group is coordinated by CETEP and particular attention is paid to adaptation to climate change. The first report will be published in 2016.

Promoting the consideration of the effects of climate change on Agriculture in Morocco

A. Laouina (Faculty of Human sciences, Rabat, Morocco)

Abstract details
Promoting the consideration of the effects of climate change on Agriculture in Morocco

A. Laouina (1)
(1) Faculty of Human sciences, Geography, Rabat, Morocco

Abstract content

The effort of adaptation to climate change must be involved in the fields of resource management and governance, by the research on the possible correlations between Climate change / Management of resources / efficiency of institutions responsible for these resources, in order to better respond to the questions posed and propose ways of adaptation capable to mitigate the negative effects of the current trends.

On the political level, because of the strong interactions of the three domains, climate water and environment, it is advantageous to opt for integrated actions, winning on several plans: reduce the vulnerability, conservation of resources, development of agriculture and guaranty of water volume and quality.

Therefore propose measures with tangible effects, reform the decision-making process and place it on top of sector structures.

We can’t overemphasize the importance of anticipation, ie, possess an elaborate knowledge, the result of advanced research, based on sufficient measures and studies. Careful planning is to be prepared, on the basis of a prospective based on reliable indicators. Finally, we must adopt policy choices and courageous management, by challenging truths that seemed established and proved, but recent studies seem to contradict.

Non integrated solutions with only a technical content can affect the consistency and efficiency of decisions and policies. It is necessary to collect sufficient data to validly base on the decisions and thus strengthen the links between scientific research and decision making. A sufficiently broad debate should take place, to compare the values, perceptions and views, to allow the decisions ownership by everybody. We must provide relevant and reliable scientific data and the results must be communicated to the general public and organizations, to ensure a sufficient level of awareness and commitment.

 

Adaptation is not exclusive to the most vulnerable farmers and most fragile lands. The rainfed land of the Atlantic plains of Morocco, considered as favorable, covered by large farms, in which aggregation of means permits to promote agriculture, and which are directed by conscious farmers, in principle, of the possible impacts of Climate change on the process of degradation, can suffer serious threats, especially because of the unexpected occurrence of large magnitude events.  Irrigated land, either, are not immune to environmental crises, especially in case of water stress. So we must be prepared for any eventuality and therefore adopt a crisis management policy in the event of occurrence of major risks.

An effective integration of climate change on agriculture, as in other sectors, implies the need for a clear commitment at the highest level of the state apparatus and ensures the contribution of the private and civil society to establish the conditions for the establishment and implementation of a structured and effective strategy.

Regional climate change adaptation and mitigation in the North German Plain – a cross-sectoral analysis of land use experts' perception

T. Barkmann (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Muencheberg, Germany), R. Siebert (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Muencheberg, Germany), A. Lange (Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Muencheberg, Germany)

Abstract details
Regional climate change adaptation and mitigation in the North German Plain – a cross-sectoral analysis of land use experts' perception

T. Barkmann (1) ; R. Siebert (1) ; A. Lange (1)
(1) Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute of Socio-Economics, Muencheberg, Germany

Abstract content

Climate change is beyond dispute and a crucial challenge for mankind on the global scale as well as on the regional scale. In order to successfully implement adaptation and mitigation measures towards climate change on the regional scale, the involvement of regional land use experts is very important. Moreover, cross-sectoral interdependencies of adaptation and mitigation measures on the regional scale – both synergies and conflicts - have to be taken into consideration. One crucial requirement of a successful adaptation and mitigation concept is the analysis of those measures already implemented on a regional scale, including the appropriate spatial scale for measures taken. Furthermore, coping with climate change is a multi-level policy concern. Therefore, the appropriate level of political regulation, as assessed by regional land use experts, is an important element of the analysis of adaptation and mitigation measures.

In our study we applied a qualitative, cross-sectoral approach, primarily analysing which adaptation and mitigation measures are implemented or demanded on the regional scale in the land use sectors agriculture, forestry and water resource management. The results are derived from 60 semi-structured expert interviews conducted in four case study regions in the North German Plain as well as from a subsequent survey (n=37) amongst regional land use experts. Experts involved cover a wide range of land use experts, including farm managers, forestry experts and their respective interest groups, flood protection and water body maintenance specialists as well as representatives of regional administrative bodies.

Our results show that: (1) Even if Germany may not be as affected by climate change as other countries, a number of climate change induced adaptation measures are nevertheless already implemented, (2) further measures are taken into recognition or are demanded by regional land use experts, (3) adaptation measures play an important role on the regional scale whereas mitigation measures are almost negligible, (4) water-related issues, respectively water management approaches and related measures are the linking elements between the analysed land use sectors in all case study regions and (5) in general, there is no particular spatial level favoured for the implementation of adaptation or mitigation measures. However, with regard to policy-makers’ ability to exert influence on climate change related measures, the national scale is seen as the most effective level.

Our results implicate that the implementation of adaptation measures can be focussed on the regional scale, whereas efforts to mitigate climate change should be coordinated and implemented on the national or even global scale. Furthermore, cross-sectoral interdependencies between the analysed land use sectors can be shown. Therefore, an integrated, cross-sectoral approach should be further pursued, to combine the sectoral efforts to adapt to climate change, to generate synergies and to minimise conflicts.

In our study we also identified needs for further research. Whereas further analyses of interdependencies between different adaptation measures on the regional level seem to be fruitful, the analysis of regional mitigation measures is not sufficient at this point. There is further need for research on why the regional scale lacks mitigation measures and how to integrate those at the regional level. While the study’s focus lies on those adaptation and mitigation measures clearly depicted as climate change related, other regional measures may also be linked to climate change. Though those were not included in our study, they should be considered in future analyses for a coherent approach. Also, further analyses on how to integrate sector-focused measures into a more comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach should be conducted.

 

The study was carried out within the research project „NaLaMa-nT- Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland“ (Sustainable Land Management in the North German Plain) within the frame of the FONA program initiative funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).

Rethinking Coastal Design and Planning: Integrated SLR Vulnerability Assessments, Case of Mombasa and Lamu Islands

V. Ochanda (Wits University, Johannessburg, South Africa)

Abstract details
Rethinking Coastal Design and Planning: Integrated SLR Vulnerability Assessments, Case of Mombasa and Lamu Islands

V. Ochanda (1)
(1) Wits University, Architecture and Planning, Johannessburg, South Africa

Abstract content

The world coastlines are increasing in population due to their natural beauty, tourist attraction of the luxurious coastal cities leading to ever larger populations, and a vast interest in developing infrastructure at coastal areas. Sea level rise (SLR) is threatening the sustainability of coastal residents as well as the related infrastructure, The Low Elevation Coastal Zone (LECZ) defined here as the contiguous area along the coast that is less than 10 metres above sea level covers 2 per cent of the world's land area but contains 10 per cent of the world’s population and 13 per cent of the world's urban population. The least developed countries have 14 per cent of their populations living in the LECZ compared with 10 per cent for the developed countries with the disparities widening in coastal urban areas at 21% and 11% respectively. Literature suggests that coastal cities in the developing world are ill prepared for the impacts arising from sea level changes and related storm surges. The Southern and Eastern African coastline (comprising the coasts of South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania and Kenya), will regularly be affected by changes in cyclonic and other significant weather events that pose risks related to the development and infrastructure in these countries. The East African coastal Islands of Mombasa and Lamu being relatively low elevated will become increasingly vulnerable to the associated risks of increasing SLR. Urban infrastructure development, use planning and design is most likely going to be impacted by the sea level rise on the coastal built environment, these factors along the coastline will require a rethinking of coastal design and planning especially with regards to Sea level rise (SLR). The main purpose of the integrated and participatory vulnerability assessment was to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in both the local government and communities. The distinctive features of perception and adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. The specific objectives was to assess initial SLR vulnerability levels for the coastal strip of Kenya in terms of the zones, assets, infrastructure, public services, people and activities, Use GIS-based tools and techniques to determine and map out the extent of inundation risk for Kenya's coastal strip based on localized modelling from global inundation scenarios of 1m, 3m, and 5m assessment, Appraise baseline sea level vulnerability awareness and perceptions through focus group discussions in order to understand the prevailing mitigation/adaptation practices and coping strategies now in place, co-creatively evolve intervention or mitigation policy options for subsequent action and implementation. In this case meaningful and Practical adaptations initiatives tend are enhanced when, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses. The important input was maily the participation of the affected communities through the mini charette on the concept of sea level rise, climate change and coastal adaptation and mitigation, especially in the context of the developing countries. The participation of the communities gave a great insight in the enhancement of the adaptation and mitigation strategies, and the absorption of climate change related mitigation and policy strategies for the two islands.

Flooding in the Urban Space: the Contribution and impact of law in relation to resilient Flood Risk Governance in the EU

S. Homewood (Middlesex University, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Flooding in the Urban Space: the Contribution and impact of law in relation to resilient Flood Risk Governance in the EU

S. Homewood (1)
(1) Middlesex University, Law and Flood Hazard Resaerch Centre, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

PROPOSED TITLE of CONTRIBUTION: ‘Flooding in the Urban Space; The contribution and impact of Law in relation to resilient Flood Risk Governance in the EU’.

This presentation will take an overview of one of the most important environmental issues affecting more than half of the world’s population.  How should environmental risk governance respond to  climate change which is  likely to have caused increasing problems of flooding in recent years and the increasing threat of flooding  in the  cities and urban spaces of  the future? An important aspect of such governance arrangements is the impact and importance of a number of legal issues.

This paper will examine some of the law’s response to the problems of the governance of flooding in England and make some comparisons with other EU Countries. This will include reference to the preliminary findings from the  large 6 Million Euro EC funded STARFLOOD Research project on Flood Risk Management, with which the author and other colleagues are involved, together with 5 other European Universities.

 

Adapting to climate change through local planning: The Bolivian Andes

A. L. Gonzales Carrasco (Agua Sustentable, La Paz, Bolivia), P. L. Pacheco Mollinedo (Agua Sustentable, la Paz, Bolivia), C. Carafa (Agua Sustentable, la Paz, Bolivia)

Abstract details
Adapting to climate change through local planning: The Bolivian Andes

AL. Gonzales Carrasco (1) ; PL. Pacheco Mollinedo (2) ; C. Carafa (2)
(1) Agua Sustentable, Climate change, La Paz, Bolivia; (2) Agua Sustentable, Climate Change Adaptation, la Paz, Bolivia

Abstract content

The manifestations of climate change contribute to increasing threats to national development strategies. Every year more intense extreme weather impact on natural and human systems; impacting on the social and economic development in the Bolivian Altiplano. Studies by the National Climate Change Program in Bolivia (1997) and SENAMHI (1998), predict future climate scenarios in Central Altiplano of Bolivia, where variations in the cycle of rainfall and temperature increases with consequences of aridity.

Faced with this problem, there is an urgent need to build a solid foundation of scientific information, develop skills and knowledge management under which it will explore and identify the best options and tools for effective response to the impacts of change and climate variability using appropriate instruments as the rescue of knowledge, mathematical modeling, mapping rights, spatial tools, etc. To achieve this solid base of information, provide information to decision makers on the most effective use and the most appropriate destination of public investment funds and strengthen the governance structure to adapt to climate change.

An adaptation plan should address policy guidelines and adaptation to climate change in order to reduce the vulnerability of communities. In general, the policies relate to the objectives and the means of implementation, while the measures focus on actions to specific topics.

The construction of such a plan is based on social learning processes, methods and developed, adapted and tested for Sustainable Water tools, where both men and women in the communities participating in activities from the accompanying research, information gathering and building community action adaptation action plan and regional adaptation and analysis of lessons learned and planning.

Through the processes described, a methodological approach based on a sequential flow and simultaneous integrated actions in three fundamental axes parallel builds, which feed off each other 1) research, 2) Spaces of public social deliberation and advocacy and 3 ) Planning and investments for adaptation.

The applied, collaborative and participatory work of local actors is the key in vulnerability analysis locally and expanding to a regional analysis as well as in identifying adaptation options to climate change, some of which are re-evalued as traditional or ancestral forms of water management and some as new initiatives that are found from the research.

On the other hand, the second axis are social spaces of public deliberation. It is under this axis where the dissemination of knowledge for capacity building and strengthening works by promoting a roundtable of the basin where the actors are the same, both civilian and public. Finally, the focus of investment planning for adaptation is at the base of solutions to address climate variability and change tools built from the negotiating Regional Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change.

To meet future challenges involving climate variability and change, it is necessary a permanent improvement of the planning system (plans, programs, projects) to which this proposal raises contribute to the development of their own capabilities of the governors on the issue of adaptation. The principles of good governance imply that adaptation schemes are aimed at consensus, joint planning, effective, efficient, accountable, transparent, flexible, equitable, inclusive and law-abiding. These are basic principles to be considered to achieve reliable processes and establish legitimate institutions that lead to effective adaptation measures.

  • Adaptation planning does not need to be separated aside the already known planning development actions at local levels.
  • Adaptation capacities of the municipalities can be improved by better allocating the funds for adaptation actions argued by the big losses after no adaptation
  • Municipalities can plan adaptation actions and level up those to the Programs for development at the Regional and National level.

Dynamic coherence of risk management and adaptation strategies in cities

R. Schwarze (Helmholtz-Center for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany)

Abstract details
Dynamic coherence of risk management and adaptation strategies in cities

R. Schwarze (1)
(1) Helmholtz-Center for Environmental Research, Economics, Leipzig, Germany

Abstract content

Decisionmaking in cities has a specific temporal character. It ranges from mainstreaming existing urban infrastructures and planning and more immediate measures to increasing theadaptive capacity of cities, to longterm transformations of urban living and design. Scaling urban challenges of CCA in time strongly relates to the analysis of risk management andadaptation needs, measures and actions. Much knowledge is already available on the impacts of climate change and natural hazards on different sectors in cities and on associated existing vulnerabilities and risks, and many sector specific CCA and DRM options are available. However, the existing methods and tools have not been studied for dynamic coherence. This paper displays the structure of risk management and adaptation need in short term direct and indirect crosssectoral impacts, vulnerabilities and risks of climate change, mid term levels of preparedness of cities (adaptive capacity) for these impacts, and robust long term urban sustainability transformations for challenges going beyond existing adaptive capacities. It also covers the role of the private sector in short and longterm urban resilience programmes,with a special focus on municipal climate and resilience finance.

Climate change and necessary actions for Sahelian rural world. What choice and what measures for responsible authorities?

A. Ndiaye (Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal), M. B. Timera (Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal), S. D. Badiane (Cheikh Anta Diop University, Dakar, Senegal)

Abstract details
Climate change and necessary actions for Sahelian rural world. What choice and what measures for responsible authorities?

A. Ndiaye (1) ; MB. Timera (1) ; SD. Badiane (1)
(1) Cheikh Anta Diop University, Geography, Dakar, Senegal

Abstract content

In the Sahel, rural populations are increasingly faced with a decline in agricultural production due to various inappropriate methods of production but also and especially to the influence of climate change is manifested in the form of recurring hazards: droughts, floods, dry spells, the greater wind speed, etc. However, to ensure food security, more than 80% of rural depend on a hypothetical rainy winter, very disturbed in the course of its cycle. It follows strong pressure exerted on natural resources (Sivakumar, 1993; Servat et al 1997; Etc.).

                                                           

These climatic disturbances that last for almost half century affected the bio-productive system and induces degradation. It appeared everywhere, the most degraded landscapes are those affected by overgrazing, agricultural pressure, where poor farming practices; the disappearance of fallow and lack of fertilizer supply has exacerbated the phenomenon (Preliminary Report of the FAO project "Land Degradation Assessment," FAO-CSE, April 2003), etc.

 

Thus, disturbances occurred on climatic factors, will have notable effects on the lifestyles of the population and socio-economic activities. They are facing, at the same time, to constantly risk situations and high vulnerability due to the lack of resources available to them to face the multiple pressures.

 

A diagnosis based on a field visit in 2014, with a project from F.A.O. (collection of basic information: individual interviews and focus group interviews with facilitators and leaders of structures, etc.) in Senegal, Gambia, Burkina Faso and Mali , has identified and assess the adaptive capacity of farmers to climate change in relation to their livelihoods, to identify their roles and responsibilities but also those of the various technical and administrative services that support them in their fight against the effects of the phenomenon.

 

It appeared at the end of our research that, the main policy advice is that both addressing food and nutrition security and building resilience in vulnerable nations and communities require an integrated approach of investing in long term production enhancement interventions, but also short term price and climate risk management strategies. Investing in responsive and sustainable safety nets that will enhance food and nutrition security can thus reduce the impact of short term risk factors. Once risk and vulnerability are not factored, hazards may reverse progress made over some years in most fragile and vulnerable countries and communities.

 

It appeared too, that the active participation of all stakeholders, enabling the development of the strengths and potential of rural areas and thus the assertion of economic identity, social, historical and cultural populations could assure them the well-being so aspired. Furthermore, the challenges of climate change in the context of globalization, there were proven everywhere (Smart Village, Eco-villages, etc.) that local development, will, in the future, more than in the past, a role key to play in ensuring a confirmed transformation of territories?

 

Ultimately, it will be discussed in the context of this paper, to succinctly analyze climate trends indispensable for socio-economic projections, to study the factors (internal and external) that exacerbate the vulnerability of farmers and finally to assess the relevance of options / more effective coping strategies in this sense the emergence of a local socio-economic consciousness and collective responsibility to build a regional project through an agreed methodology.

 

 

The territorialization of climate change in southern rural Chile: linking local knowledge to global environmental change

G. Blanco-Wells (Universidad Austral of Chile, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile), A. Lagarrigue, (Universidad Austral of Chile, Valdivia, Chile)

Abstract details
The territorialization of climate change in southern rural Chile: linking local knowledge to global environmental change

G. Blanco-Wells (1) ; A. Lagarrigue, (2)
(1) Universidad Austral of Chile, Center for climate and resilience research, Valdivia, Los Ríos, Chile; (2) Universidad Austral of Chile, Instituto de historia y ciencias sociales, Valdivia, Chile

Abstract content

This paper presents findings of a five-year research programme called the Sociology of Climate Change (SCC) carried out in southern Chile by an interdisciplinary team. By means of ethnographic work and extended case methods, the research aims to unravel the processes by which national and international public policies on climate change are territorialized in rural regions of southern Chile by farmers, rural dwellers, scientist, and other local agents. From a social sciences perspective, climate change can be seen as an elusive techno-political object needing complex methods to be represented. However, it has gradually become a transforming driver of rural practices and everyday life in rural territories worldwide.

Therefore, the main focus of the case studies is to present evidence about how local actors internalized the socio-technical object called climate change creating new practices and meaningful representations of an otherwise distant global phenomenon. Most institutional actions by government, universities, and international organizations are loaded with a highly normative approach placing mitigation and adaptation at the centre of their strategies. However, little attention has been paid to understand if and how climate change becomes a local category for farmers and rural dwellers; how are they framing the phenomenon and engaging in new sustainable and/or transformative options.

The results show that local actors are concerned with climate related problems but a process of understanding and translation to local epistemologies and ontologies is needed, a process that we have conceptualized as territorialization. To illustrate this point we present specific findings on the associations between climate change and peasant agriculture on Chiloé Island, in southern Chile. Drawing from Actor-Network and Social Practice Theories, we track interesting changes in the use of local peasant knowledge as it relates to weather and the organization of farming activities. Furthermore, we find evidence concerning the configuration of new territorial assemblages devised to explore the means of facing the negative consequences of this phenomenon, in terms of both production, and the fragmentation of local knowledge.

The conclusions highlight the importance of empowering networks where mentioned responses are produced and diversified, and in which local knowledge can be updated and applied to the organization of rural practices in order to face growing climate variability.

Evidence and Future Scenarios of a Low-Carbon Power System Transformation in Latin America: A Case Study in Nicaragua

D. Ponce De Leon Barido (University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America), J. Johnston (University of Hawaii, Honolulu, United States of America), D. Kammen (University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States of America)

Abstract details
Evidence and Future Scenarios of a Low-Carbon Power System Transformation in Latin America: A Case Study in Nicaragua

D. Ponce De Leon Barido (1) ; J. Johnston (2) ; D. Kammen (1)
(1) University of California, Berkeley, The Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, California, United States of America; (2) University of Hawaii, Electrical engineering, Honolulu, United States of America

Abstract content

The global carbon emissions budget going forward depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Yet there are few studies that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models for such analysis can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low and lower-middle income economies. Recent research also highlights that although low-carbon economy transformations in emerging economies could prove challenging and expensive, cost-effective mitigation actions, such as fossil ­fuel subsidy reform, decentralized modern energy access expansion and fuel switching in the power sector, are not only possible, but feasible.

 

Nicaragua is a country whose power system, like others in Central America and the Caribbean, has been historically dependent on imported fuel oil. Most recently, however, and despite Nicaragua being the third poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, the country is leading a low-carbon power system transformation in Latin America. In 2013 it produced 40% of its electricity from non-hydro renewable energy and in 2014, on an hourly basis, it produced up to 50% of its generation from wind power alone. Motivated by energy security, industrial development, financial risk mitigation, and the need for increased energy access to its most vulnerable populations, Nicaragua has transformed its energy sector in recent years. Between 2009 and 2014 it installed ~190MW of wind energy capacity (14% of total installed capacity), underwent an intensive geothermal technical capacity training in partnership with Iceland, and between 2006 and 2014 the country received over US$ 1.5bn of cumulative renewable energy investments. Yet, despite this great progress, Nicaragua’s own ambitious goals (79% and 93% renewables-based generation including large hydropower by 2017 and 2026, respectively) seem daunting.

 

Here, we utilize both high-resolution open-access data and electric power system planning tools (SWITCH, an optimization model for planning power system investments and operations developed at the University of California, Berkeley) to demonstrate how low- and lower-middle income economies can develop optimal fuel-switching strategies and scenarios for a low-carbon grid. We choose Nicaragua for our analysis as it has very low electricity access (79%), oil accounts for over 80% of all energy imports (over 55% of Nicaragua’s revenue from exports goes towards covering this expenditure), and its current expansion plan (2014-2030) relies primarily on large hydropower development, making the power system particularly vulnerable to hydro-climatological variability. We evaluate eight power system planning scenarios (base case, geothermal and solar development mandates, oil and large-hydro moratoriums, expensive and risky geothermal resource development, cheap fuel oil prices, and a Central American regional interconnection) that can help Nicaragua evaluate pathways for expansion of renewable and conventional generation technologies while achieving important development objectives (energy access, energy security, climate-risk mitigation and economic efficiency). Our results suggest that Nicaragua can cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. A regional interconnection (balancing) enables the highest generation from wind and solar (18% and 3%, respectively by 2030), at the lowest cost (US$127/MWh), highlighting the importance of regional cooperation in enabling low-carbon futures. Neither oil price variability (cheap oil prices US$50/bbl increasing 2% per year) nor potentially risky geothermal and hydropower developments (which raise system costs) significantly hinder decarbonization. We conclude with a discussion on the challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and how they can use analyses similar to this one to develop and evaluate their own low-carbon transition pathways.

Quantifying the impact of non-conventional renewable energy sources in reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Chilean experience

C. Benavides (Energy Center, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile)

Abstract details
Quantifying the impact of non-conventional renewable energy sources in reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Chilean experience

C. Benavides (1)
(1) Energy Center, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile

Abstract content

The countries are interested in quantifying the impact of mitigation actions that they have implemented in order to know how far or near they are from their voluntary and non-voluntary pledges. During COP19 in 2009, Chile proposed a voluntary commitment to reduce its GHG emission by 20% by 2020 with respect it 2007 baseline scenario. This commitment was confirmed in the Climate Summit in New York (2014) and during the COP21 in Lima, Peru (2014). In the case of Chile, the reason to select the year 2007 as a reference is because the country wants that the mitigation actions implemented before 2009 are recognized as a national mitigation effort. In Chile, one the main environment policies is the non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE) law implemented before 2009. The first non-conventional renewable energy law was launched in 2008 and it stated that 10% of the total sales would be provided by NCRE sources in 2024. This quota system was updated recently (2013) and the new law states that 20% of the total sales would be provided by NCRE sources in 2025. This paper aims to propose a methodological approach to quantify the impact of the non-conventional renewable energy law in reducing greenhouse gases emissions in Chile. The effectiveness of this policy is analyzed.

In order to quantify the impact of this mitigation action by 2020, this exercise requires projecting at least two scenarios: the baseline scenario, i.e. the GHG emission trajectory considering the implementation of the NCRE law, and the counterfactual scenario. This is an estimate of what would have occurred in the absence of the NCRE law. The methodology used an optimization model in order to project the planning in new power plants in the power sector. This model also projects the electricity generation by power plants and the GHG emissions. The steps of methodology are the following:

1) A gathering information process is done for those NCRE projects installed between 2007 and 2014. The first step of the proposed methodology is to estimate how many of these projects were installed due to the NCRE policy launched in 2008.

2) Construction of periodical baseline scenarios between 2007 and 2013: The model to project the baseline scenario is run activating and not activating the NCRE constraint. The resulted investment plants of these cases (with and without NCRE constraints) are compared in order to estimate the installed capacity in NCRE projects between 2007 and 2013. This projection is compared to the real projects installed in the same period.

3) In order to project the emission reduction by 2020, a Baseline 2014 scenario is projected. The Baseline 2014 is the scenario which considers the current situation and trends of the electricity generation sector: current investment cost projection, fuel price projection, projection of demand, etc. This model is run activating the NCRE constraint (20% of sales will be provided by NCRE sources by 2025).

4) Projection of the counterfactual scenario since 2014: This scenario has two main differences in comparison to Baseline 2014 scenario. The first, this model is run non-activating the NCRE energy law, and the second, is to suppose that only x% of the installed capacity in NCRE project would be installed in 2014. This percentage is calculated from step 2 of the methodology. The Chilean voluntary pledge refers to a Baseline 2007 scenario; however, we propose that a more realistic quantification of the emission reduction of the policy is done using the current trends of the sector.   

5) A sensitivity analysis is done in order to capture the uncertainties.

The results of this methodology show that the emission reduction of this policy would be between 1.1 and 6.1 million tCO2 in 2020. This emission reduction is compared to other policies implemented in Chile. The results show that the NCRE law has been the most important policy to mitigate the climate change. However, it has not been enough due to the building of thermoelectric power plants has not stopped in Chile. In effect, between 2009 and 2013, 2263 MW of coal power plants were installed. In addition, there are 611 MW of coal plant under construction. Therefore, by 2016 will be 2874 MW additional in coal plant with respect 2006 installed capacity. It means that at least additional 28 million tCO2 will be launched to the atmosphere by the electricity generation sector. 

Guatemalan Advances to climate change adaptation and Mitigation

M. Chacon (Doctoral Program Climate Change, Guatemala, Guatemala)

Abstract details
Guatemalan Advances to climate change adaptation and Mitigation

M. Chacon (1)
(1) Doctoral Program Climate Change, San Carlos Guatemala University, Guatemala, Guatemala

Abstract content

The goal of this essay is to present a comparative review of the advances of Guatemalan national and municipal initiatives to climate change adaptation and mitigation, which includes public policy, private sector strategies, and indigenous communities’ practices to make resilient communities. The author of this essay analyzes the limitations and contributions to climate change adaptation derived from the national and local planning policies to address sustainable development with the complexity of poverty and climate change impacts. The author also describes private sector experiences in managing natural resources with environmental social responsibility. In addition, the author identifies the local indigenous community strategies and other local practices and principles to manage local natural resources and biodiversity with an effective climate change adaptation and mitigation and prevention of natural disasters. For instance, in Guatemalan indigenous highlands there are recently introduced a few forested communal parks which are managed by indigenous organizations; interestingly, they aim to increase local economic development, prevent landslides, conserve cultural and natural values, and contribute to reduction of climate change impacts; it is the case of “hearth Municipal Park” located in Atitlan lake’s watershed.Because climate change has shown strong effects in Central American countries in impoverished communities in societies where democratic institutions are recently in building process, in this essay the author has given special attention to national policy and local community initiatives for sustainable development programs in order to know the main principles and aspects that should have been considered in the process of making resilient communities by dealing with the social, ecological, cultural, political and economic impacts of climate change effects in the indigenous communities most affected also by poverty. They are the impoverished urban and rural populations which have had increased social, economic an environmental vulnerability because of the climate change impacts. The climate change impact would be deepest since local governments and rural population have little or lack of understanding of the mid and long term climate change effects and strategies to adapt to it in local communities.

Therefore, it is very crucial to review the climate change factors and effects which are affecting communities not only because of atmospheric Nina and Nino phenomena, but also because of the environmental, social, political and economic impacts and constraints for climate change adaptation and poverty alleviation. Conversely, it is fundamental to correlate climate change effects with sustainability challenges such as poverty, population emigration to international labor sites in USA, and in combination with environmental degradation including deforestation, introduction of areas with planting illegal cultivation related other drugs’ trafficking activities, rural land fragmentation, erosion; such factors are creating more complexity to democratic institutional capacities and economic development plans and strategies for sustainability and resilience.  It is the case of the most attractive touristic spots in Guatemala where economic development derived from international tourism is jeopardized because the environmental degradation; it is the case of millennial Mayan historical places like Tikal, and international most attractive and visited spots such as Atitlan Lake and Flores Lake where level of water is increasing covering the parts of the surrounding towns. The impacts are more destructive in rural lands and towns because of land use location near risky places where there have been landslides and natural disasters from the Mitch Hurricane, Stan Storm. Other impacts are the reduction of environmental values, ecological functions, landscapes values, diminished environmental protected corridors, less touristic demand for potential touristic places losing attractiveness. Moreover, other social economic impacts are the losing the investment of private housing and state investments in municipal parks located in lands occupied by the increased water level of the lakes and rivers, the reduction of areas of agricultural lands affected by the increased water level of the lake and rivers; also, the reduction of productivity in agricultural lands affected by dryness in Niña and Niño phenomena, reduction of health conditions and nutrition of those communities.

Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change in Brunei Darussalam: A Step towards Food Security

S. Shams (Institut Teknologi Brunei, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam)

Abstract details
Agriculture Adaptation to Climate Change in Brunei Darussalam: A Step towards Food Security

S. Shams (1)
(1) Institut Teknologi Brunei, Civil Engineering, Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei Darussalam

Abstract content

The world’s population is increasing rapidly and expected to reach 8 billion by the year 2020. The standard of living is also increasing with the advancement of new technologies and thus increasing the life span of individuals. The demand for food production will increase too and particularly the developing countries will face a new set of challenges. The impact of increased demand for food production will significantly felt in the agricultural sector. Rural economies, which are based upon and dominated by agricultural, pastoral and forest production, are highly sensitive to climate variations and change. So too are the livelihoods and food security of those who participate directly in these activities, supply inputs to them, or use their outputs to produce other goods and services. The climate change is a major threat to the existing agricultural practice in many developing countries. The continuous increase in temperature with intensive precipitation over a short period will have adverse affect on the agricultural output of Brunei Darussalam. There were 115 reported cases of flooding and 105 landslides during the last rainy season, the worst and most severe rainfall ever happened in Brunei. Over the past few decades, Brunei is experiencing a rapid change in climatic condition particularly on the increased  temperature (0.0375oC) and rainfall (37.62 mm) received annually. The economy of Brunei is mostly relying on oil and gas sector which consist of up to 90% of the country exports. In 2007, Brunei’s oil production saw a reduction of 11.5% to approximately 193,000 barrels per day compare to the output in 1979, which surpassed 240,000 barrels per day. Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei's National Vision) has been established by Brunei Economic Development Board (BEDB), as to give awareness to the population not to rely fully on oil and gas productions. The vision formulates a plan to increase employments, enhancing the current education and upskill the labour force by introducing more institutions to the related work, and initiate a more sustainable economy. Due to ample amount of land availability, Brunei can make use of the land resources as potential assets. An improved and regulated country’s agriculture can give a better and sustainable future, not just to the population but also increase the government revenues. Intensification of agriculture and the associated increase in productivity has already saved about one billion hectares of wildlife habitat across the world (Pratley, 2008). Therefore, the study aims to synthesize the relationship between climate change and agriculture production in Brunei Darussalam. The study focus on the adaptation or coping strategies with emphasis on training to agricultural extension workers and farmers to ensure increased productivity, a step towards food security. Technical change is one of the key elements that influence the pace of agricultural growth in the developing countries. Agriculture in Brunei Darussalm must undergo a transformation to become ‘climate-smart’ in order to prevent climate change from further exacerbating food insecurity.  To adapt to climate change, farmers need new and improved technologies, skills and knowledge, or in many cases, to be linked to existing technologies which are currently inaccessible. These may include, for example, improved water management using rainwater harvesting or soil stabilization techniques; soil conservation and erosion control through terracing and agro forestry; and greater use of renewable energy through biogas and solar PV.

 

 

 

 

Climate-smart Agriculture put into Practice: The case of Rice Production in Southeast Asia

R. Wassmann (International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines), R. Reinke (International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines), B. O. Sander (International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines), P. Ficarelli, (International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines)

Abstract details
Climate-smart Agriculture put into Practice: The case of Rice Production in Southeast Asia

R. Wassmann (1) ; R. Reinke (1) ; BO. Sander (1) ; P. Ficarelli, (1)
(1) International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines

Abstract content

The concept of Climate-smart Agriculture (CSA) encompasses both mitigation and adaptation practices that are fused into one comprehensive approach for devising sustainable farming systems. Rice production is an ideal model crop to illustrate the coherence of these principles as the CSA approach can draw upon a wealth of knowledge and previously developed farming practices for coping with adverse climatic conditions (to be tapped for adaptation) and for increasing resource use efficiencies (to be tapped for mitigation). Plant breeding has a proven track record to increase resilience of the rice crop against drought, submergence, salinity and heat stress. New biotechnology tools allow expeditious and precise changes in rice varieties that increase their performance under climatic stresses.

Rice is a major source of the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) methane and – to a lesser extent – methane. Given that high rice yields are imperative to food security, the key to reducing GHGs is increasing resource-use efficiencies, namely of water and fertilizer. Methane is produced by the microbial community in flooded soils. In turn, water saving techniques such as Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) can be deployed to effectively reduce methane emissions while – if implemented properly – rendering several co-benefits such as reduced input costs and stable yields in water scarce years. More judicious use of nitrogen fertilizers decreases emissions of nitrous oxides; this approach is now incorporated into interactive mobile phone apps to convey site-specific recommendation to farmers in several rice-growing countries.

Given the significance of rice production in Southeast-Asia, this production system also constitutes the key component of comprehensive initiatives for upscaling CSA technologies, such as the recently established ‘Climate-Smart Villages’. In these villages, the entirety of land use is assessed in terms of interventions towards increased climate resilience and mitigation options through participatory action research. Thus, the previous and ongoing initiatives on rice production offer to derive meaningful 'lessons learnt' for future CSA dissemination of rice as well as for other land use systems. 

L'eau virtuelle des produits agricoles d'importation : Un moyen de contrecarrer le problème du manque d'eau en Algérie

B. Mouhouche (Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique (ENSA) ex INA, Alger, Algeria)

Abstract details
L'eau virtuelle des produits agricoles d'importation : Un moyen de contrecarrer le problème du manque d'eau en Algérie

B. Mouhouche (1)
(1) Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique (ENSA) ex INA, Génie Rural (Hydraulique Agricole), Alger, Algeria

Abstract content

L'eau virtuelle des produits agricoles d'importation :

Un moyen de contrecarrer le problème du manque d'eau en Algérie

 

B. Mouhouche

 

ENSA ex INA, El-Harrach, 16200 Alger

Laboratoire de Maîtrise de l'Eau en Agriculture

 

Résumé

 

L’Algérie est classée parmi les 17 pays qui souffrent le plus du manque d’eau à travers le monde.

En effet, avec moins de 300 m3/habitant/an d’eau renouvelable, l’Algérie dispose de moins de 30% du seuil théorique de rareté fixé par la Banque Mondiale à 1000 m3 /hab./an.

Etant dans l'impossibilité d'étendre sa SAU et/ou d'augmenter les surfaces irriguées, pour combler le déficit alimentaire, l'Algérie a recours à des importations massives de produits alimentaires, particulièrement les céréales et leurs dérivés.

Ajouté à cela les produits agricoles non-alimentaires.

Ces importations, bien qu'elles représentent une hémorragie financière très importante pour le pays, elles ont au moins un aspect positif représenté par les quantités impressionnantes d'eau virtuelles qu'elles procurent à l'Algérie estimées à plus de 40 milliards de m3 pour l'année 2012.

C'est dans ce cadre que s'inscrit notre étude dans laquelle nous essayons de quantifier ces quantités d'eau virtuelles qui contribuent grandement à soulager temporairement le pays de son problème de manque d'eau.   

 

Mots clés : Le manque d'eau, la sécurité alimentaire, ressources hydriques, eau virtuelle, Algérie.

Weather, Climate and Food Security

T. Beer (President, IUGG Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change, CSIRO; PB1, Aspendale, Vic. , Australia)

Abstract details
Weather, Climate and Food Security

T. Beer (1)
(1) President, IUGG Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change, CSIRO; PB1, Aspendale, Vic. , Australia

Abstract content

Safety and Security, though almost synonymous opposites of “risk”, can have different meanings.  Thus, for example, food safety is only one of the nine attributes of food security.

 

To meteorologists, food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems.  But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic and to predict their societal consequences.

 

In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important “To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other...”

 

The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), through its Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change (CCEC) is leading the WeatCliFS consortium of international scientific unions to examine weather, climate and food security as well as to look at the interaction of food security and geophysical phenomena. The following fundamental question underpins WeatCliFS: What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards [such as famine] – and how might these be used at a variety of spatial and temporal scales? This poster will review the work undertaken to date.

Post harvest challenges & economic consequences and opportunities. Case study of Rwanda

H. Cesar (Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, 16500 Praha 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic), T. Doucha (Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, 16500 Praha 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic), T. Ratinger (Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, 16500 Praha 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic)

Abstract details
Post harvest challenges & economic consequences and opportunities. Case study of Rwanda

H. Cesar (1) ; T. Doucha (1) ; T. Ratinger (1)
(1) Czech University of Life Sciences in Prague, Economic and Development, 16500 Praha 6, Suchdol, Czech Republic

Abstract content

The total agricultural product loss of 23.5% in Rwanda is due to poor post-harvest processing of agricultural products, when valued in monetary terms reflects a tremendous loss in the economy. Deficits in food items or financial loss should not have occurred if post-harvest losses were reduced through proper processing and preservation from harvest to consumption. Such a situation does not only reduce the national income but also it generates a problem of malnutrition in population, 43% in children in Rwanda is subjected to malnutrition. The loss ranges from 5 to 40% of production in Sub Saharan Africa. This exceeds the total food aid received by countries in Sub Saharan Africa.

Both government and private institutions needs to invest in much effort in research and extension toward improving and modernizing post-harvest facilities for attaining more efficient market infrastructure and distribution channels. The aim of this research is evaluation of post harvest losses of different cereals crops, evaluation of the economic impact caused by post harvest losses by quantifying the price discounts which small farmers face when selling damaged cereal and establishment of a postharvest model that can tackle the postharvest losses.

Different methods will be applied and include quantitative methods and qualitative methods. Interview, use of algorithm that operates on two data sets of a set of postharvest loss profiles and a set of seasonal data to assess the post harvest losses level. The double-hurdle model and standard regression models will be used to identify the level of impact of post harvest losses damages to evaluate the economic loss caused by this damage.

 

Agriculture is neither the culprit, nor the solution, to climate change

R. Kröbel (Lethbridge Research Center, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada), H. Janzen (Lethbridge Research Center, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada)

Abstract details
Agriculture is neither the culprit, nor the solution, to climate change

R. Kröbel (1) ; H. Janzen (1)
(1) Lethbridge Research Center, Science and Technology Branch, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada

Abstract content

It may be obvious, but agriculture’s primary function is to produce food. It is in the nature of agricultural systems that they do leak greenhouse gases as part of the food production function, and they undoubtedly contribute to climate change. However, any greenhouse gas component that is emitted was prior fixated from the atmosphere and will be recycled to and from atmosphere eventually. This is fundamentally different from the process of burning fossil carbon compounds that adds ever more carbon dioxide to the atmosphere for an everlasting effect of climate warming. Carbon sequestration is seen as solution to this problem, and one option that has been widely promoted is the increase and (long-term) storage of soil carbon in agricultural soils. Thus (based on the past versus now principle of life cycle analysis approaches), producers can now promote their production as environmentally friendly when they increase the carbon stock in their soils. The problem is that soil carbon cannot increase endlessly, and so this approach benefits producers who switch away from systems with bad environmental performance rather than producers that were environmentally friendly all along. On top of that, soil carbon gains only make up a minor fraction of the carbon fixated by agricultural systems initially. Therefore, we propose the following concepts to re-assess the role agriculture plays in climate change:

 

  • Producers benefits should be based on the amount of soil carbon stored (and thus also benefit from increasing them), but the emphasis would be on maintaining the soil carbon stock
  • Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture should be charged against the carbon the system fixated in total (net primary productivity – nitrous oxide – enteric methane – soil respiration), as tremendous amounts of fixated carbon are exported from farms each year to feed the human population

The onus should not be on the farmer to responsibly store the carbon resource they produce, similar to the oil industry that is not responsible to educate the consumer towards responsible consumption and utilization of its products. However, if it is our goal to remove carbon from the atmosphere, utilizing the tremendous amounts of biomass produced each year on agricultural soils might be a more suitable solution for long-term storage than highly technical and energy consuming alternatives. For this purpose, storage of nutrient depleted crop straw or already collected and concentrated manure and waste products could prove to be cheaper and more successful.

The contribution of fruits and vegetables production to poverty alleviation, nutrition and environment in Africa

D. Feliciano (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The contribution of fruits and vegetables production to poverty alleviation, nutrition and environment in Africa

D. Feliciano (1)
(1) Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Over the last 20 years, the demand for fresh fruits and vegetables, both in their crude and processed form, has significantly increased. According to Mal et al. (n.d.), it is only in recent years that there is an increasing awareness of the potential of native tropical fruit species as sources of dietary vitamins, minerals and energy. Rising incomes and growing consumer interest in product variety, freshness, convenience and year round availability are among the main reasons for this increasing demand (Diop & Jaffee, date). Ruel et al. (2005) recognises that the consumption of fruits and vegetables increase when gross domestic product per capita goes up, but cautions that this is not a fully linear relation as the overall percentage of the food budget allocated to fruits and vegetables is low (4-16%). Fruit and vegetables are rich sources of micronutrients, needed by children for optimal growth and development (WHO/FAO, 2004). Energy, protein, vitamins (A, C, D, and B-complex), and minerals (iron, zinc, iodine) are required for the growth of muscle tissue and bones, brain development, and bodily functions such as the immune system or co-factors for enzymes. WHO (2009) estimates that 250 million preschool children are vitamin A deficient and as a consequence between 250 000 to 500 000 become blind every year. Most national and international dietary guidelines are in agreement that consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables is a healthy food choice and generally needs to be increased. The World Health Organisation recommends a minimum daily intake of 400 g of fruit and vegetables especially for children, and many countries have programmes to promote consumption (FAO/WHO, 2004).Several initiatives have recognised the importance of the consumption of fruits and vegetables to deal with micronutrient deficiencies. One of these is the Global Fruit and Vegetable for Health Initiative (PROFAV/PROFEL), launched by FAO and WHO in 2003. This was followed by the elaboration framework for action in 2004 which objective was to guide the development of cost-effective interventions to promote adequate consumption of fruits and vegetables for health at national or sub-national level (FAO/WHO, 2004). In addition, regional workshops have been held between 2004 and 2014 promoting the consumption of fruits and vegetables, within healthy diets and lifestyles, in the different continents. In 2007, the World Vegetable Centre (AVRDC) submitted a pre-proposal on High-Value Crops – Fruits and Vegetables to the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). The objective of this proposal was broader since it aimed at helping the poor to take advantage of the economic and nutritional value of high-value fruit and vegetables for income generation, job creation, food security and health, taking into account environmental sustainability. However, this proposal did not go ahead.

This papers reviews the literature and analyse FAOSTAT database to investigate how the production of fruits and vegetables contribute to:

  1. Poverty alleviation;
  2. Improved nutrition and health;
  3. Improved natural environment and ecosystem services

The focus of the paper is Africa. Food consumption patterns have been progressively analysed in developing countries over the past 30 years. However, food production and consumption patterns remain poorly understood in Africa, particularly for fruits and vegetables.

Dynamics in climate change, agriculture and food security in the sub-saharan Africa: a review

M. A. Awodun (Federal University of Technology Akure., Ondo State, France)

Abstract details
Dynamics in climate change, agriculture and food security in the sub-saharan Africa: a review

MA. Awodun (1)
(1) Federal University of Technology Akure., Department of Crop, Soil and Pest Management., Ondo State, France

Abstract content

There have been decreases in food supply caused by extreme weather events. Regardless of where extreme weather occurs, the effects on food availability and price are disproportionately felt by the world's poor. Moreover, crop failures due to extreme weather not only affect those buying and selling in the global marketplace, but also have a direct impact on subsistence farmers.  Understanding how such extreme weather events - which are predicted to become more frequent under climate change - affect both yields and total production of the world's staple food crops is thus an issue of both scientific and societal importance. Climate change is occurring more rapidly than anticipated and the increase in extreme weather events threatens more disruptive effects to agriculture. The vulnerability of food production systems has been demostrated over and over again. Food security is the state achieved when food systems operate such that "all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life". Food security is underpinned by food systems and is diminished when food systems are stressed. This stress can be caused by a range of factors in addition to global environmental change (e.g. population pressure, changes in international trade agreements and policies, migration) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Agriculture contributes on average34 percent to the GDP of Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) countries and employs 64 percent of the labour force. It accounts for about 40percent of exports and provides various ecosystem services. Agriculture and rural development are thus the key pillars of the SSA economy. Sub – Saharan Africa is characterized by a growing population (2 – 3%) and an increasing number of households depending on farming activities. Soil degradation due to population pressure, intrinsic soil fragility and harsh climatic conditions have decreased the amount of cultivable land per capita and led to food insecurity since farmers have very limited means to purchase agricultural inputs (mineral and/or organic manure, working tools, and technical capacities, etc.) to increase soil productivity. Review of average crop yield for cereals, roots and tubers in 41 African countries showed 13 countries registering decline in cereals yield and 15 registering decline in yields for roots and tubers. Decline in rainfall has significantly altered the traditional farm calendar and soil degradation overstretched local farmers’ soil management capability. Population resilence to these changes are related to several coping and adaptive strategies including crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification and migration. Adaptation which is a process of adjusting to a changing climate through explicit and planned interventions, or spontanous consequence of inherent flexibility, can mitigate its impacts. While adaptation to climate change is seen by most observers as the most preeminent issue for African countries. There is a strong parallel development of initiatives that aim at stabilizing GHG concentration in the atmosphere(mitigation); in reality, mitigation and adaptation should not be pursued independently as they are complementary. Most mitigation options  will reduce impacts of climate change and several adaptation strategies will lead to reduction of GHG disposal in the atmosphere.  With  the slow progress in achieving mitigation, it is suggested that a viable option of adaptation is developed to prevent the anticipated negative imapcts of global change. Conservation agriculture, which involves minimal soil disturbance can improve water use efficiency by crops and helps in carbon sequestration processes and also improve on  the capacity of crops to withstand weather stresses.Also, raising productivity through improved irrigation will likely be the key to ensuring food security as weather pattern shift.

Mapping irrigation potential from renewable groundwater in Africa: a quantitative approach

Y. Altchenko (International Water Management Institute, Silverton, South Africa), K. Villholth (International Water Management Institute, Silverton, South Africa)

Abstract details
Mapping irrigation potential from renewable groundwater in Africa: a quantitative approach

Y. Altchenko (1) ; K. Villholth (1)
(1) International Water Management Institute, Southern Africa Office, Silverton, South Africa

Abstract content

Groundwater provides an important buffer to climate variability in Africa. Yet groundwater irrigation contributes only approximately 1% of the cultivated land as compared to 14 % in Asia. As opposed to previous country-based estimates, this paper derives a continent-wide, distributed (0.5 degree resolution) map of groundwater irrigation potential, indicated in terms of fractions of cropland potentially irrigable with renewable groundwater. The method builds on an annual groundwater balance approach using 41 years of model data, allocating to groundwater irrigation the groundwater recharge in excess after satisfying other current human needs and environmental requirements, while disregarding any socio-economic and physical constraints in access to the resource. Due to high uncertainty of groundwater environmental needs, three scenarios, leaving 30, 50 and 70% of recharge for the environment, were implemented in a conservative estimate of the potential. In addition, current dominating crops and cropping rotations and associated irrigation requirements in a zonal approach were applied. Results show an inhomogeneously distributed gross groundwater irrigation potential across the continent, even within individual countries, reflecting recharge patterns and extent of cropland. Results further show that average annual groundwater available for irrigation ranges from 708 to 1669 km3 depending on scenario. The total area of cropland irrigable with groundwater ranges from 44.6 to 105.3 million hectares, corresponding to 20.5% to 48.5% of the cropland over the continent. Accounting for existing groundwater irrigation, residual irrigation potential remains high and relevant for poverty alleviation in the Sahel and Eastern Africa region where climate variability could have important impact on population. This could significantly increase the food production and productivity in the region from a reliable and renewable resource.

Modelling the current and future dry-season distribution of Encosternum delegorguei (Hem., Tessaratomidae) in sub-Saharan Africa

C. Dzerefos (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa), E. B. (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa), W. E. (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa), G. D. (SANBI, Cape Town, South Africa)

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Modelling the current and future dry-season distribution of Encosternum delegorguei (Hem., Tessaratomidae) in sub-Saharan Africa

C. Dzerefos (1) ; E. B. (1) ; W. E. (1) ; G. D. (2)
(1) University of the Witwatersrand, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) SANBI, Climate change and bio-adaptation division, Cape Town, South Africa

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Rural communities in South Africa, Malawi and Zimbabwe annually harvest from winter aggregations of the edible stinkbug Encosternum (=Haplosterna) delegorguei Spinola. Using a regional maximum entropy modelling method (MAXENT) for winter field records of E. delegorguei, current and future climate scenarios were identified. Winter precipitation and to a lesser degree summer precipitation and winter temperature were the climatic variables found to limit the regional distribution of E. delegorguei. The receiver operating characteristic analysis (ROC) yielded an AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.995, indicating a reliable model although interpretations must consider the influence of elevation for this insect. A testable hypothesis regarding future distribution of E. delegorguei in the face of climate change has been formulated for its winter range. Predator-prey relationships and food source are also influencing the occurrence of E. delegorguei and may override the influence of climate. The modelled current distribution identifies potential new sites in areas of similar climate which may be unknown to harvesters. Areas for mini-livestock pilot studies provide opportunities for extending commercial potential and ensuring a sustainable nutritional food during a period of food scarcity.

Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) and Bush Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nation Community

C. Barbeau (University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada), M. Oelbermann, (University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada), J. Karagatzides, (Georgian College, Barrie, Canada), L. Tsuji, (University of Toronto, Scarborough, Canada)

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Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change: Producing Potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) and Bush Beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) for Improved Food Security and Resilience in a Canadian Subarctic First Nation Community

C. Barbeau (1) ; M. Oelbermann, (1) ; J. Karagatzides, (2) ; L. Tsuji, (3)
(1) University of Waterloo, Environment and Resource Studies, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada; (2) Georgian College, School of environmental studies, Barrie, Canada; (3) University of Toronto, Health studies and the department of physical and environmental sciences, Scarborough, Canada

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Aboriginal people in Canada’s northern regions are vulnerable to climate variability in addition to experiencing disproportionately high rates of diet-related illnesses including obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Food insecurity is a contributing factor along with a loss of traditional lifestyles. Current food systems within these regions rely heavily on imported foods that are expensive (when available), and unsustainable. A warming subarctic and arctic climate offers the opportunity for local agricultural production that can increase food security and promote a more sustainable food system. In this study the feasibility of sustainably growing potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) to enhance food security in remote subarctic communities is explored through a case study in Fort Albany First Nation in northern Ontario, Canada. Potato crops were grown over a two-year period and rotated into plots that had been planted with green bush beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) Results showed that potatoes and bush beans could be grown successfully in the subarctic with yields comparable to more traditional agricultural methods. In subarctic Canada, sustainable local food production helps to promote social capital, healthier lifestyles, and food security.  

Climate change impacts on the leaf miner, a major pest of the oil palm in Nigeria

T. Aneni (Nigerian Institute for Oil palm Research, Benin, Edo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

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Climate change impacts on the leaf miner, a major pest of the oil palm in Nigeria

T. Aneni (1)
(1) Nigerian Institute for Oil palm Research, Benin, Edo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

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000868

This study examines application of climate variability to abundance and impacts on the leaf miner, Coelaenomenodera elaeidis, a major pest of the oil palm and its parasitoids in Africa. It analyses temperature, rainfall and relative humidity conditions from 1961 - 1970 as a reference point for baseline climatic conditions and description of same conditions between 2001 - 2010; Evaluates projections up to 2050; and describes impacts on leaf miner abundance. Leaf miner was sampled in the main station of the Nigerian Institute for Oil palm Research, between January 2009 and December 2010. Means, standard deviation, variances, covariance's, seasonal and climatic patterns for temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were computed. Least square method was used to estimate the trend in the series and the trend equation. Time series analysis was used to analyse the data and generate trend equations. The models for temperature, rainfall and relative humidity were generated. A forecast up to 2050 was generated indicating an upward trend in temperature and a downward trend in rainfall and relative humidity, with concomitant increase in leaf miner abundance between 1980 and 2010. 

International Joint Laboratory Patho-Bios, an efficient observatory of Plant Pathogens in West Africa in the context of climate change

E. Traoré (INERA, Ouagadougou -Kamboinsé, Burkina Faso), F. Tiendrébéogo (INERA, Ouagadougou-Kamboinsé, Burkina Faso), J. Néya (INERA, Ouagadougou-Kamboinsé, Burkina Faso), D. Sérémé (INERA, Ouagadougou-Kamboinsé, Burkina Faso), I. Wonni (INERA, Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso), M. Bangratz (IRD, Montpellier, France), C. Tollenaere (IRD, Montpellier, France), L. Nitiema (INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), P. Nikièma (INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), E. Zida (INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), L. Ouedraogo (INERA, Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso), S. Nacro (INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), C. Brugidou (IRD, Montpellier, France), O. Traoré (INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)

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International Joint Laboratory Patho-Bios, an efficient observatory of Plant Pathogens in West Africa in the context of climate change

E. Traoré (1) ; F. Tiendrébéogo (2) ; J. Néya (2) ; D. Sérémé (2) ; I. Wonni (3) ; M. Bangratz (4) ; C. Tollenaere (4) ; L. Nitiema (5) ; P. Nikièma (5) ; E. Zida (5) ; L. Ouedraogo (3) ; S. Nacro (5) ; C. Brugidou (6) ; O. Traoré (5)
(1) INERA, Ouagadougou -Kamboinsé, Burkina Faso; (2) INERA, Ouagadougou-Kamboinsé, Burkina Faso; (3) INERA, Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso; (4) IRD, Département environnement et ressources, Montpellier, France; (5) INERA, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (6) IRD, Département Environnement Ressources, Montpellier, France

Abstract content

International Joint Laboratory Patho-Bios, an efficient observatory of Plant Pathogens in West Africa in the context of climate change

 

Traoré V.S.E.1,2, Tiendrébéogo F.1,2, Néya B.J.1,2, Sérémé D.1,2, Wonni I.1,3, Bangratz M.1,4, Tollenaere C.4  , Nitiéma L.1,2., Nikiéma P.1,2.,  Zida P.E.1,2 , Ouédraogo L.1,3, Nacro S.1,2, Brugidou C.1,4, Traoré O.1,2

1: LMI Patho-Bios (www.patho-bios.com), Kamboinsé, Burkina Faso

2: INERA/Kamboinsé (Ouagadougou), Burkina Faso

3: INERA/Farakoba (Bobo-Dioulasso), Burkina Faso

4: IRD/Montpellier

Contact: kourouda@gmail.com; christophe.brugidou@ird.fr

 

The International Joint Laboratory (LMI) entitled observatory of Plant Pathogens in West Africa: Biodiversity and Biosafety (LMI-Patho-Bios) has been formally launched in Burkina Faso on the 30th January 2014. LMI-Patho-Bios was initiated by the national research institute of Burkina faso, “Institut de I’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (INERA)” and the French Research Institute for Development (IRD) which have signed a memorandum of understanding to drive a five years research project on bio surveillance of plant pathogens. LMI-Patho-Bios is established at INERA on two sites. It is mainly located at Kamboinse research station of INERA (Ouagadougou) with a secondary location at Farako-Ba research station (Bobo-Dioulasso). LMI-Patho-Bios is interested on all important crops in West Africa including cereal crops (rice, maize, sorghum, millet), root and tuber crops (yam, cassava, sweet potato and potato), legume crops, vegetable crops and fruits. Its main goal is to develop a powerful open field observatory platform for bio surveillance in order to study plant pathogens interactions, diversity and evolution of pathogen populations in the context of global warming change which is expected to lead to major changes in plant diseases epidemic risks. Rice is used as model crop in such a platform which will significantly contribute for better understanding of the emergence of new plant diseases in a context of continuing climate change. Surveys will be made on common experimental plots located in different agroecological area in Burkina Faso and in West Africa to follow the dynamics and aggressiveness of pathogen populations. The major activities consist on diagnosis and characterization of plant bio-aggressors as well as epidemiology study of rice pathogens: viruses (RYMV, RSNV), bacteria (Xanthomonas oryzae, Burkholderia sp), fungi (Magnaporta grisea), and nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.). LMI-Patho-Bios has also developed a strong regional network with several national research systems (NARS) and Universities in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and contribute in the capacity building of researchers, research technicians, students and agricultural extension officers. Finally, the joint laboratory will train and promote knowledge dissemination to farmers and extension officers on good agricultural practices in terms of recognition and proper management of bio-aggressors. Furthermore, LMI-Patho-Bios will contribute to develop strategic technological tools to help African farmers to better adapt to, and to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Fitting neglected and underutilised crops into climate change adaptation strategies

T. Mabhaudhi (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa), A. Modi, (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa)

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Fitting neglected and underutilised crops into climate change adaptation strategies

T. Mabhaudhi (1) ; A. Modi, (1)
(1) University of KwaZulu-Natal, Crop Science, School of Agricultural, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

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Agriculture is the predominant activity sustaining livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa with about 70% of the region’s population relying on agriculture for their sustenance. In this region, about 95% of agriculture is primarily rainfed and relies mainly on a few starchy cereal and root and tuber crops for dietary provision. Climate change and variability are expected to result in increased variability of rainfall as well as severity and intensity of extreme weather events such as drought and floods. This places pressure on food and nutritional security within a region that is already behind with achieving Millennium Development Goal – 1. Consequently, there has now been movement across the region to develop climate change adaptation strategies at various levels. These strategies, which include climate smart agriculture, are mainly focussing on the major crops. There is a need to include alternative crops - the neglected and underutilised crop species (NUCS). These are crops that have historically formed the rich tapestry of the agro-biodiversity that exists within the region. By definition, NUCS are crops that have not been previously classified as major crops, have previously been under-researched, currently occupy low levels of utilisation and are mainly confined to smallholder farming areas. Historically, NUCS have played an important role in ensuring community and household food and nutrition security through providing healthy alternatives when the main crop failed or during periods in-between subsequent harvests. The promotion of a few major crops during the Green Revolution subsequently led to their relegation to their current although they still offer much potential. Across much of SSA, water availability remains the major limiting factor to crop production, threatening food security of vulnerable groups. It is also expected that water would be the primary medium through which impacts of climate change and variability would be experienced. Most NUCS are believed to be resilient and adapted to a range of ecological niches, low input agriculture and may have tolerance to abiotic stresses such as drought. This makes them important future crops for SSA’s smallholder farmers on marginalised lands especially under predicted climate change. Their inclusion in climate change adaptation strategies would offer sustainable solutions built upon existing agro-biodiversity of communities within the region.

 

 

For a sustainable agriculture according to land suitability, dietary needs and climate scenarios

A. Di Paola (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Viterbo, Italy), M. C. Rulli, (Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy), M. Santini (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Viterbo, Italy)

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For a sustainable agriculture according to land suitability, dietary needs and climate scenarios

A. Di Paola (1) ; MC. Rulli, (2) ; M. Santini (3)
(1) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Impacts on Agiculture, Forests and Ecosystems Services (IAFES), Viterbo, Italy; (2) Politecnico di Milano, Department of civil and environmental engineering, Milano, Italy; (3) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Impacts on agriculture, forests and ecosystem services, Viterbo, Italy

Abstract content

A large portion of agricultural production is funneled into animal feed or biofuels despite widespread hunger and undernutrition. Predictions foresee global demand for biofuels increasing from 81 billion of litres in 2008 to 172 billion litres in 2020, coinciding with an additional 40 million hectares of land converted for biofuel crops. According to the Milan protocol (http://www.milanprotocol.com/), a third of the global food production is used to feed livestock. Of the some 7 billion people on earth, 1 billion are without access to drinking water, which causes the death of 4,000 children each day. In contrast, 15,000 litres of water are needed for the production of a single kilogram of beef. In this work we tried to evaluate the advantages and feasibility of options to optimize the production, promotion and distribution of food with a high protein content (so as to remain equal nutritional quality of the meat) to reduce the footprint of water consumption and GHGs’ emissions from the agricultural sector and to recover the availability of agricultural land as well. As example it is recognize that if the same amount of plant protein produced from protein-rich legumes is used directly for human consumption rather than for feed (currently 95%) up to 75 times the land currently required to grow feed crops could be recovered, up to 40·103 cubic meters of water could be saved per each recovered hectare and, also, emissions should be contained thanks to the nitrogen-fixing behavior of promising protein-rich crops.

By means of crop modeling coupled with emission-climate and diet scenarios, and adopting an ensemble approach that favors robust evaluations comprehensive of uncertainty flagging, we show how to it is possible to formulate different agri-food solutions for a sustainable agriculture compatibly to land suitability, water availability, dietary needs and climate projections. In particular, agri-food options we investigate include i) identification of protein-rich legumes and their suitable area of culture according both with the current and projected climate, ii) their contribution to limit environmental footprints (GHG, water, land) and iii) the optimal compromise of crop production used for human consumption vs feed such as to ensure a balanced diet between meat and lacto-ovo-vegetarian consumptions compatible to climate change, water consumption and land recovery issues.

How can food insecure smallholders gain the full potentials of climate smart agriculture (CSA)

E. Simelton (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Hanoi, France), P. M. (Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden)

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How can food insecure smallholders gain the full potentials of climate smart agriculture (CSA)

E. Simelton (1) ; P. M. (2)
(1) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Hanoi, France; (2) Chalmers University of Technology, Physical resource theory, Gothenburg, Sweden

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Integrated farming systems are often mentioned as strong contender of Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) for meeting food security, adaptation and mitigation objectives. Studies on CSA-adoption typically identify two strands of recommendations:  One strand finds that “Farmers’ are already doing climate-smart practices” and some add “... so let’s learn from them”. The other strand concludes that “Farmers are not yet optimizing the full potential of CSA”, meaning “more training or awareness-raising is needed”. Thus to optimize the full potential of integrated farming systems for CSA, we hypothesize that lessons be exchanged between the two strands. Therefore, to identify factors that can reduce the gap between these two categories, we synthesized household survey results from over 800 households in semi-tropical Viet Nam.  We characterize households in 25 villages across northern and central Viet Nam who have adopted and those who have not adopted integrated farming systems, including agroforestry, home gardens, and rice-fish cultures. The data was using direct measurements or proxies for food security status, adaptive measures, and biophysical inventory including biodiversity and carbon stock covering.  

We highlight several gaps between farmers’ practice and scientific knowledge in each of the three pillars of CSA, relating to differences between adopters and non-adopters of integrated farming systems. Households with integrated farming systems are able to make synergies between a stable household economy (food security) and adaptation. In particular, households with agroforestry had shorter economic recovery period after natural disasters than those without. In contrast, food insecure households had smaller land area, fewer integrated farming systems and less diverse production.

Land use policies have a strong influence on farmers’ crop choice through designated land uses, subsidies and seedling supply.  Home gardens, which are excluded from land us policies, were an underestimated resource for diversity. In particular, food secure households with home gardens were more benign to experiment. Lastly, as no mitigation mechanisms in place, farmers benefited neither from the carbon sink potentials of tree plantations nor greenhouse gas emission-reducing agricultural practices.  

The study concludes that realizing the full potential of CSA-synergies requires (1) a carefully selected portfolio of context-specific technologies and improved local practices, (2) that farmers and local land use planners are able to estimate costs-and-benefits of business-as-usual versus adaptation and mitigation options, and (3) an enabling policy environment streamlined towards CSA. 

Marriage of traditional knowledge and modern science to build the resilience of food security systems in Pacific Island Countries

V. Iese (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji), J. Maeke (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji), M. Wairiu (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji), M. Nand (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji), E. Holland (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji)

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Marriage of traditional knowledge and modern science to build the resilience of food security systems in Pacific Island Countries

V. Iese (1) ; J. Maeke (1) ; M. Wairiu (1) ; M. Nand (1) ; E. Holland (1)
(1) The University of the South Pacific, Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, Suva, Fiji

Abstract content

Pacific Island Countries prioritized increase agricultural production as a way for sustainable development.  Agricultural products can also contribute to energy security as demonstrated by many developed and developing countries in the world.  However, the question remains as to how we can increase agricultural productivity against increasing pressures and uncertainties and with limited information on soil, climate and crops or how we can optimize crop productivity and get the best outcomes from our crop management practices and limited arable land areas.  . Research conducted on both high islands and atolls reveal different level of vulnerabilities including types of crops they cultivate and methods and technologies used. Understanding the vulnerability of the food security systems at the community level is very important in order to strategically build their resilience. Farmers in studied countries in the Pacific apply both traditional practices and modern innovations to improve their resilience. Employing the holistic approach including climate and weather information (current and future), soil information (physical and chemical), crop or variety suitability and optimized integrated crop management (traditional and modern practices) to improve crop productivity is the way forward for a resilience food security system.

Economic implications of climate change in Sub-Saharan agricultural system: short term impacts and opportunities for irrigation

F. Eboli (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Venice, Italy), F. Bosello (University of Milan, FEEM, and CMCC, Milan, Italy), L. Campagnolo (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy), M. Mistry (Ca' Foscari University and FEEM, Venice, Italy), R. Parrado (FEEM, Venice, Italy), R. D. Ponce (Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy)

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Economic implications of climate change in Sub-Saharan agricultural system: short term impacts and opportunities for irrigation

F. Eboli (1) ; F. Bosello (2) ; L. Campagnolo (3) ; M. Mistry (4) ; R. Parrado (5) ; RD. Ponce (6)
(1) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Economic analysis of Climate Impacts and Policy Division, Venice, Italy; (2) University of Milan, FEEM, and CMCC, Dep. of economics, Milan, Italy; (3) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy; (4) Ca' Foscari University and FEEM, Department of economics, Venice, Italy; (5) FEEM, Venice, Italy; (6) Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Economics, Venice, Italy

Abstract content

This research examines the climate related impacts and adaptation options in Sub-Saharan Africa agriculture in a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework with world coverage. Differently from most of the global CGE models treating the land supply in a very simplistic way, here we introduce land heterogeneity differentiating between rainfed and irrigated cropland. The irrigation production function is built upon the estimates on unitary investments from FAO and considering the current level of irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Under this new specification, each agricultural sector can substitute rainfed land with an irrigated bundle composed of irrigated land and capital and allows considering differentiated climate change impacts.

The first step of the analysis is the assessment of the climate change impacts. The reference scenario is the SSP5, to ensure consistency with the climate scenario described below. It is worth mentioning that the time frame of the analysis is 2030, even though climate change impacts are expected to increase more than proportionally later than 2030. However, aadaptation strategies imply decisions in the very short term and can lead to delay in taking actions against future climate change. For the impact assessment, two climate scenarios in line with RCP8.5 are analyzed. The first assumes constant CO2 (1960 level, 316.27 ppm), while in the second scenario CO2 increase over time mirroring RCP8.5 concentration. Biophysical changes in land productivity by crop and land type are taken by the LPJ-ML model run according to the CanESM General Circulation Model and are exogenously introduced in the CGE model.

Without “CO2 fertilization effect”, due to the short term considered, a few countries/regions, namely Nigeria, Senegal, Madagascar, Botswana and Rest of West Africa are better off in terms of agricultural production; on the other hand, Malawi, Mozambique and the Rest of South Central Africa are the most damaged countries in terms of yields reduction. Where agricultural production drops, the dependence from imports increases, clearly highlighting the effects of economic vulnerability to climate change. The overall effect on Sub-Saharan African economies is summarised by the GDP growth change compared to the reference scenario and ranges between -1.6% (Mozambique) and +1.6% (Nigeria). The “CO2 fertilisation effect” scenario has uniformly a positive effect on yields. Mozambique is the only country with production losses in all agricultural sectors compared to the reference scenario. The impact on GDP is generally positive; only Mozambique and Rest of South Central Africa experience a GDP loss of 0.6 and 0.1%, respectively.

Overall, when the "CO2 fertilization" effect is not accounted for, Eastern and South Central Africa experiments negative changes in yields also in such a short time horizon. Extending irrigation practices represents a key strategy to cope with climate change and at the same time to favour development. We compute ex-ante the additional irrigation required such to compensate the production losses due to climate change and recover the output of the “no climate change” scenario. This information is combined with country specific unitary costs of irrigation projects from FAO to estimate the required amount of investments. Such an additional flow of capital for irrigation in the agricultural sectors is subtracted to the rest of the economic system. This approach allows highlighting the inherent trade-off within adaptation plans: allocating more investments to agriculture deteriorates the capital stock available for developing the rest of the economic system.

The outcome of increased irrigation in the country targets is heterogeneous. In most cases, irrigation provides higher benefits than costs. This is explained by the higher marginal productivity of capital for irrigation than in other productive sectors, reflected by the large increase in crop yields when cropland is equipped with irrigation systems. Nevertheless, in Mozambique and Rest of South Central Africa, the most vulnerable countries to climate change, extending irrigation is not sufficient to bring back production to the reference scenario levels. This lack of responsiveness can be explained by the low degree of internationalization of the agricultural sectors that limits the expansion of exports in spite of higher productivity.

Potential Contribution of Supplemental Irrigation as a key Strategy of Local Adaptation to Climate Change in small holder farming in the Sudan Savanna zone of West Africa

O. N. Worou (WASCAL, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), B. J. Naab (WASCAL, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)

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Potential Contribution of Supplemental Irrigation as a key Strategy of Local Adaptation to Climate Change in small holder farming in the Sudan Savanna zone of West Africa

ON. Worou (1) ; BJ. Naab (1)
(1) WASCAL, Agriculture, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

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Irrigation is a key strategy to help farmers to adapt to potentially drier and shorter growing season projected for climate change effects in most parts of Africa, especially West Africa.  Field experiments were conducted during the 2013 and 2014 in order to evaluate supplementary irrigation strategies for improving water productivity. Maize was planted on different sowing dates either rainfed or with supplemental irrigation using rainwater harvested. In general the date of sowing highly significantly affected on weight of grain under both rainfed and irrigated plots. Application of irrigation caused an significant increase in weight total dry matter biomass in 2013. In 2014, water productivity was 11.71 kg/ha/mm, 7.16 kg/ha/mm and 5.40 kg/ha/mm at early, medium and late dates respectively. A simulation study was done using the Decision Support systems for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 4.6)-CERES model in order to optimize irrigation level at 3 option of sowing dates. Model´s predictive capability was first verified by using some yield, phenelogy and treatments from current experiment. Simulations were then carried out for 31 years period with measured daily climatic data derived from 2 stations. The modeling showed that a window of sowing date can be implemented when it is associated with supplemental irrigation. Application of a higher amount of water or higher frequency of limited amount of water to rainfed maize could substantially increase crop yield and make it stable over years. 

GENETIC ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT TOLERANCE AMONG SELECTED BREAD WHEAT (Triticum Aestivum) LINES

M. Learnmore (University of KwazuluNatal , Pietermariztburge , South Africa), H. Shimelis (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermariztburge, South Africa), T. Tsilo (ARC, Bethelehem, South Africa)

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GENETIC ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT TOLERANCE AMONG SELECTED BREAD WHEAT (Triticum Aestivum) LINES

M. Learnmore (1) ; H. Shimelis (2) ; T. Tsilo (3)
(1) University of KwazuluNatal , Acci, Pietermariztburge , South Africa; (2) University of KwaZulu-Natal, Acci, Pietermariztburge, South Africa; (3) ARC, Small grains, Bethelehem, South Africa

Abstract content

Wheat production in most parts of the world including the Sub-Saharan Africa is currently being threatened by the increasing incidences of periodical droughts emanating from climate change. This is causing the entire continent, including South Africa, which is the region’s largest producer of the crop to increasingly depend on imported wheat. There is, therefore, a need to continuously search for useful variation for drought tolerance improvement among wheat breeding stocks within the local seed banks and among international nurseries. Currently, there is little documentation of the potential genetic contribution of these lines with reference to drought tolerance. This is limiting the development and adoption of better adapted varieties which is causing a decline in dry land wheat production and productivity. The use of biochemical selection methodologies and next generation sequencing technologies such as genotyping by sequencing (GBS), can greatly contribute to the understanding of the genetic bases of drought tolerance in wheat which have a huge and complicated genome. This study therefore, evaluates 100 genotypes for drought tolerance under controlled water application. Ninety (90) of the lines are from the CIMMYT germplasm of which 30 are from the drought, and 60 are from the heat nurseries. Ten are commercial check varieties. The specific objective of this study is to determine the genetic diversity present among the selected wheat lines for drought tolerance based on phenotypic, biochemical (proline and mannitol accumulation due to drought stress) and molecular (genotyping by sequencing (GBS) analysis. The greenhouse experiments are being carried out at the University of KwaZulu Natal and the field experiments are at Ukulinga Research Farm. Biochemical quantification is done at the University’s Analytical Chemistry laboratories, while genotyping is being done at the Agriculture Research Council (ARC) of South Africa. Data collection for these three aspects of the study is underway and all the data analysis will be done by end of April. This study will recommend further evaluation of lines which will be found to be having considerable drought tolerance coupled with high yields for dry land commercial cultivation. Also, some drought tolerant lines will be selected to be parents for crossing with high yielding but susceptible commercial cultivars to transfer the drought tolerance traits (genes).

Small farmers and their perceptions of climate, environmental and social changes: the stories behind vegetable production that could affect food and nutritional security in Brazil

C. Nolasco (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil), F. S. Pacheco, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil), L. S. Soler (National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), J. Ometto (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil), M. Lahsen, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil)

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Small farmers and their perceptions of climate, environmental and social changes: the stories behind vegetable production that could affect food and nutritional security in Brazil

C. Nolasco (1) ; FS. Pacheco, (1) ; LS. Soler (2) ; J. Ometto (1) ; M. Lahsen, (1)
(1) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre (ccst), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (2) National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

Abstract content

Brazil’s National Council for Food and Nutrition Security (CONSEA) defines and advocates  food security as “the realization of everyone’s right to regular and permanent access to quality food in sufficient quantity without compromising access to other essential needs, based on health promoting food practices that respect cultural diversity and that are socially, economically and environmental sustainable.” The Brazilian Federal Constitution has institutionalized the right to adequate food as a Citizens Social Right. Even so, access to adequate food is far from a reality in Brazil. Results of a Health Ministry’s study (2009) shows that only 18.9 % of the population consumes five servings daily (400 grams of vegetables/day) as recommended by the World Health Organization. In a context of rapid urbanization, an ever greater majority of the Brazilian population is concentrated in urban areas, where food demand thus rises. The increasing distance between the cultivation sites and where they are consumed results in increased food losses due to the high perishability of vegetables. This, together with the greater need for packaging, refrigeration and transportation raises prices, reducing the poorer populations’ access to these foods which are crucial for a healthy human diet. Studies suggest that the intake of more than five portions of fruit and vegetables a day significantly reduces risk of death. Oyebode et al. (2014) found that vegetables had the strongest health protective effect compared to other foods, with each daily portion reducing overall risk of death by 16%. In this sense, the Brazil Health Ministry recently (2014) launched a new nutritional guide which emphasizes the consumption of natural or minimally processed foods in great variety, noting that especially foods of plant origin are “the basis for diets that are nutritious, delicious, appropriate, and supportive of socially and environmentally sustainable food systems." Diets link environmental and human health (Tilman and Clark, 2014), and the incentive for vegetables consumption should rely on a well-organized food system that can provide the population with healthy products, produced in a sustainable manner and resilient against the effects of climate change and other environmental stresses. However, olericulture production in Brazil is marked by a profound lack of reliable data about the number of farmers, their cultivation methods, use of natural resources, etc.  There is an even greater lack of knowledge about the human dimension of the food system, including factors and experiences which will influence whether small farming will be sustained and able to contribute in meeting the future demand and the governmental prescriptions for a healthy diet.

Based on field research in the micro-region of São José dos Campos in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, this work investigates who the vegetable producers are and how they are experiencing and adapting to the changes in market-related, environmental and socio-economic conditions affecting their work and lives. The micro region studied is composed of eight municipalities, with 1,406,315 inhabitants, and is part of the Expanded Metropolitan Complex of São Paulo, one of the most populous urban agglomerations in the world with more than 20 million inhabitants. The field research, conducted between 2013 and 2015, included an initial investigative phase to locate the farmers within the micro region, followed by more in-depth field visits to the agricultural sites and semi-structured interviews with the farmers. The method adopted was the narrative analysis focusing on the stories told by the farmers. Some data extracted from the interviews was also georreferenced using GIS tools in Arc GIS 10.1 to assist in the visualization of the producers’ characteristics along the study area. The results showed beyond the economic, health and environmental aspects involved in the management of their crops. It shows their beliefs and values related to their activity; the role of the institutions in their productive condition; their perceptions about the recent extreme events affecting the Brazil’s Southeast Region and how their production is being affected; the pressures related to urbanization and population concentration, such as elevation of land prices and insecurity due theft and violence; and difficulties to perpetuate their activity and keep the interest of their heirs in the face of changes in consumption patterns, market channels and the globalization process in the food system.

Traditional faming practices and water management for Climate change adaptation in Sri Lanka

R. U. Piyadasa (University of Colombo Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka)

Abstract details
Traditional faming practices and water management for Climate change adaptation in Sri Lanka

RU. Piyadasa (1)
(1) University of Colombo Sri Lanka, Geography Department, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Abstract content

 

 Sri Lanka is one of the few countries in the world that has had a thriving and vibrant irrigation based civilization for over two thousand years. The cascade system, they used for traditional organic cultivation of paddy, harmonized environment and development in an environmentally sound and sustainable manner. Sri Lankan history is deeply connected with its hydraulic civilization and its erroneously named as a community based cascade ecosystem irrigation. In Sri Lanka water is collected using man-made interconnected cascade tanks ecosystems in dry areas mainly for paddy cultivation.  These tanks comprise of various components of ecological importance.  Tank cascade ecosystems  were constructed mainly in two ways, either by impounding a river or by diverting the river through canals. In early days villages were built around tanks to allow easy access to water for agricultural purposes. Tanks were also important for cultural, spiritual and religious reasons, as water is a symbol of life and purity. While the challenges are daunting, they also provide opportunities for local communities, business and government to innovate for the benefit of communities, economies and the global environment.  The cascade ecosystems, throughout the Sri Lanka in particular, are under unprecedented pressure, threatening prospects for sustainable development.  Tanks were constructed mainly in two ways, either by impounding a river or by diverting the river through canals. In early days villages were built around tanks to allow easy access to water for organic agricultural purposes. Tanks were also important for cultural, spiritual and religious reasons, as water is a symbol of life and purity. Cascade ecosystems were originated within the community and practiced over many generations. Presently managed by community Farmer Organizations and government. The all the cascade ecosystem based irrigation systems were operated and managed by the community and responsibility rested with the chief of the village community based organization.  Ecosystem that helped the community in passing through the difficult times during the droughts; a system that nurtured the development of  drought insurance through animal husbandry and fragmented land ownership; and that provided opportunities for inland fishing and human and animal nutrition. The ecosystem operate with collection of rainwater harvesting technology; a soil moisture and groundwater maintaining technology; a soil erosion and siltation control technology; a technology that ensured the maintenance of ecological balance; a technology that promoted social cohesion and need for community leadership; a system that accommodated spiritual development which promoted egalitarian attitudes. On the basis of their form and appearance, the cascading systems would have operated as an ideal community based adaptation to climate change.

Predetermination of floods in the Senegal River Valley: application between Bakel and Matam

Y. Dieme (Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des Fluide /FST/UCAD, Dakar, France), S. Sambou (Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des fluides, Dakar, Senegal), V. B. Traoré (Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des fluides, Dakar, Senegal), M. T. Cissé (Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des Fluide /FST/UCAD, Dakar, France), C. Diatta (Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des fluides, Dakar, Senegal), M. Bop (Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des Fluide /FST/UCAD, Dakar, France)

Abstract details
Predetermination of floods in the Senegal River Valley: application between Bakel and Matam

Y. Dieme (1) ; S. Sambou (2) ; VB. Traoré (2) ; MT. Cissé (1) ; C. Diatta (2) ; M. Bop (1)
(1) Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des Fluide /FST/UCAD, Physique, Dakar, France; (2) Laboratoire Hydraulique et Mécanique des fluides, Physique, Dakar, Senegal

Abstract content

Abstract - The risk of flooding in the valley of the Senegal River remain important. These floods more and more recurrent can be explained by a combination of several factors. Extreme weathers due to climate change have significantly increased the intensity of the rain causing flooding in many regions and countries around the world. Important contributions uncontrolled tributaries of BAKOYE and FALEME, releases made at Manantali representing approximately 40% of volumes sold, but also the low volume of water released downstream of the Diama dam  contribute to inundation. The consequences of these floods are sometimes heavy in terms of loss of life, of health, of education, of economy and of infrastructure. The determination of flood risk areas is important to anticipate and protect populations. For this we used coupled models HECRAS and ARC-GIS to determine the areas likely to be flooded between Bakel and Matam.  These flood risk were studied with decennial, centennial and millennial flows. The results are promising and suggest that HEC-RAS with ArcGIS can be used to set up an early warning system on the Bakel, Matam reach.

 

Clam farming in the Lagoon of Venice. How to adapt to local and global changes?

M. C. Donata (Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy), C. Solidoro (Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy), G. Cossarini, (Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy), F. Giorgi (International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste, Italy)

Abstract details
Clam farming in the Lagoon of Venice. How to adapt to local and global changes?

MC. Donata (1) ; C. Solidoro (1) ; G. Cossarini, (1) ; F. Giorgi (2)
(1) Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Oceanography, Trieste, Italy; (2) International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Earth system physics (esp) section, Trieste, Italy

Abstract content

Culture based fisheries and aquaculture deeply rely on the coastal and marine environmental conditions and can be highly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures and to climatic changes.  Adaptation and mitigation measures to local and global changes need to be supported by information and assessments..

With this aim, a downscaling experiment linking a regional atmospheric model to local ecosystem and a target species population dynamic model was conducted to evaluate the effects of IPCC climate change scenarios on a temperate coastal lagoon ecosystem, the lagoon of Venice, along with  goods and services provided by this ecosystem. Our results indicate that the changes in water temperature and reduction in plankton productivity caused by the modification of seasonal precipitation patterns will affect habitat suitability for clam growth and aquaculture. Our simulations show that aquaculture will suffer under projected future climate conditions and indicate that implementation of site- and condition-specific adaptive aquaculture management policies can mitigate the adverse effects of GC. This conclusion can be generalised to other temperate coastal systems and might be of particular importance in ecological- social-economic systems where clam farming is crucial for a self-sustaining economy.

Using phosphorites mine wastes to improve soil fertility and crop production in Togo and in the West African region for food security in a context of climate change

K. Gnandi (University of Lome, Lome, France)

Abstract details
Using phosphorites mine wastes to improve soil fertility and crop production in Togo and in the West African region for food security in a context of climate change

K. Gnandi (1)
(1) University of Lome, Dpt of Geology, Lome, France

Abstract content

Abstract: Using phosphorites mine wastes to improve soil fertility and crop production in Togo and in the West African region for food security in a context of climate change

By Kissao GNANDI, Associate Professor, Faculty of Sciences, University of Lome, BP 1515 Lome

Email: kgnandi@yahoo.fr/kgnandi@tg.refer.org, Phone: +228-90366968

 

Phosphorites are been mined in the areas of Hahotoe-Kpogamé (Southern Togo) in the Tertiary coastal basin since 1960. The exploited raw phosphorite is naturally enriched with trace metals (Cd, Pb, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, Zn, Ba, Sr, F, U) and rare earths. Phosphorites are transported to the factory of Kpémé close to the beach where they are washed by seawater using sieving and hydrocyclone separation techniques. It results from this process coarser waste and muddy fine grained clayey phosphorites tailings. The solid waste is disposed on soil, on the beach and the muddy waste fraction is dumped directly into the sea without any treatment..About 2.9 million of tons of mining waste are dumped annually into the coastal waters of Togo and causes transboundary marine pollution between Togo, Benin and Nigeria, coastal habitat degradation and the reduction of fish stock.

The phosphorite factory of Kpeme Togo has 5 chains for the treatment of raw phosphorite to commercial pure phosphorite. Each chain produces 1600 tons of muddy phosphorite waste per day. Chemical analysis showed that phosphorites waste contain up to 18 % P2O5, clay minerals and numerous nutritive elements such as Co, Cu, Ni, Cr, Fe, Zn, Mo, Se. and can be used for soil fertilization and crops productivity  according laboratory and field experiment. Coagulation and flocculation methods in big decantation basins, or decantation in hydrocyclones are necessary to recover high amounts of solid waste that can be treated and use directly for soil fertilization in Togo and other countries in the West African region for food security in a context of climate change

Key words: Phosphorite waste Togo, apatite solubility, soil fertilization, food security, heavy metals

Mobility choices and climate change: which incentives are effective?

C. Raux (University of Lyon, Lyon, France)

Abstract details
Mobility choices and climate change: which incentives are effective?

C. Raux (1)
(1) University of Lyon, Laboratoire d'Economie des Transports, Lyon, France

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Transport generated 22 per cent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the world in 2011 with three-quarters due to road transport and a continuous increase at least since 1990. There is a majority consensus among climate scientists and economists on a need for a sharp reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in the next few decades. Regarding transport it is recognized that improvements undertaken in vehicle energy efficiency will not be sufficient in the coming decades and that behavioral changes are also needed, such as shifting from individual to public transportation or lower-emission modes per passenger-km or even reducing kilometers travelled.

Regarding behavioral changes, carbon taxes and vehicle taxes are advocated by economists as the most cost-effective instruments. Variants of economic incentives like personal carbon trading have also been proposed. Their roots can be found in the economic literature initially as a combination of economic incentive and quantity control, namely marketable or Tradable Permits. Due to the specific nature of tradable permits applied to personal consumption of fuel, potential supplementary outcomes when compared to a carbon tax are expected on psychological grounds rather than economic ones. One effect might come from making carbon visible at the end-user level, with a carbon account delivering frequent feedback on travel behavior (i.e. “carbon budgeting”). Another effect could come from the social norm associated with a personal allowance fixed within the frame of a public policy.

By the means of a series of discrete choice experiments in a transport choice context we estimate and compare the impacts of economic and psychological incentives in motivating environmentally responsible mobility behavior.

In a first experiment the potential effectiveness of personal carbon trading (PCT) in changing car travel behavior was compared to the conventional carbon tax (CT) by means of a stated preferences survey conducted among French drivers (N~300). We show evidence that PCT could effectively change travel behavior and hence reduce transport emissions from personal travel. There is however a definite reluctance to reduce car travel. We were unable to demonstrate any significant difference between the effectiveness of PCT and the CT with regard to changing travel behavior. However, in the experiment, the PCT scheme provided consistent results while this was not the case for the CT scheme. This was an indication of a potential “social norm” effect conveyed by a personal emissions allowance.

In the second series of experiments we explored the trade-off between travel price and travel time on 900 participants, while introducing in a controlled setting various effects such as information on CO2 emissions, injunctive and descriptive social norms, and fiscal incentives such as a carbon tax, a bonus-malus and a carbon trading scheme. By “framing” we mean the ways of presenting a choice based initially on objective economic properties (here the trade-off between travel price and travel time) that do change psychological aspects (information on CO2 emissions, injunctive and descriptive social norms) and sometimes economic aspects by imposing fiscal incentives (tax, quotas and bonus-malus).

Statistical evidence shows that providing CO2 information on emissions is highly effective and the injunctive norm reinforces this effect in the case of air and train. A quota scheme reinforces the injunctive norm effect in the case of these two modes. More strikingly, the amount of the financial sanction or reward has no effect on the probability of using the various travel modes, unlike the presence of the fiscal framing itself.

There are some policy implications of such results. First they confirm and reinforce the case for using psychologically positive framing effects in promoting effective pro-environmental behavior in transport choices. Providing basic CO2 emissions information on each travel alternative is likely to yield actual behavior changes. Normative messages through benchmarking (bonus-malus) or carbon budgeting (quotas) may reinforce the incentive especially for larger emitting modes. The amount of the financial (dis)incentive in itself might not matter regarding the effect on behavior change.

Energy efficiency and behavioural change in Uganda's small-scale industry

B. Never (German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Germany)

Abstract details
Energy efficiency and behavioural change in Uganda's small-scale industry

B. Never (1)
(1) German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Germany

Abstract content

Energy efficiency counts as a low-hanging fruit in the combat against climate change and the transformation towards a low-carbon future. Investments in energy efficient technologies and the uptake of energy management practices offer a lot of benefits to industries in developing countries, but these are often not reaped. This so called energy efficiency gap exists in Uganda as much as elsewhere. Small-scale enterprises particularly struggle with the closure of this gap due to a combination of financial, organizational and informational barriers, as different studies have shown. This contribution will show that there is also a behavioural story to be told. Removing behavioural barriers and using psychological insights to design tailored policy packages belongs in the climate mitigation toolbox as much as in the development toolbox.

This contribution takes an innovative interdisciplinary approach combining development economics, behavioural sciences and environmental psychology to analyse the behavioural drivers and barriers of energy management in Ugandan micro- and small enterprises. The paper is an empirical contribution that draws on 45 on semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions conducted in Eastern Uganda in April 2014.

The main findings are that behavioural barriers impeding energy efficiency contribute to the limited performance of these enterprises. the cognitive focus on and preference for short-term benefits, habits and a status quo bias as well as a lack of trust impede the uptake of energy efficient technology and energy saving business practices by the MSEs. It has become clear that those entrepreneurs who have started to manage the electricity consumption of their business were supported by direct, first-hand experience with energy efficient technology and practices, followed implementation intentions taken at energy training workshops and benefited from social learning, i.e. from other, similar businesses serving as role models. The possibilities for social learning among the entrepreneurs interviewed are limited by competitiveness thinking and mistrust; at least as long as the entrepreneurs could not actually see for themselves what positive impact energy efficiency has on a neighbouring business. While the qualitative approach to this study does not allow for larger generalizations, the findings indicate a positive effect of changing energy management behaviour on business development and performance, if context conditions such as sufficient business skills and market access are provided for. Strong behavioural drivers are likely to be conducive to energy management and enterprise performance, while the strength of strong behavioural barriers negatively impacts performance. Thus, supporting behavioural change in small-scale industries can have positive effects for mitigating climate change, economic growth and development.

Stimulating climate aware behavior among young people in Austria

S. Chiari (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Centre for Global Change and Sustainability, Vienna, Austria), S. Mandl, (Austrian Institute for Sustainable Development, Vienna, Austria), S. Voeller, (Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria), A. Corner (Climate Outreach and Information Network (COIN), Oxford, United Kingdom), O. Roberts, (Climate Outreach and Information Network (COIN), Oxford, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Stimulating climate aware behavior among young people in Austria

S. Chiari () ; S. Mandl, (1) ; S. Voeller, (2) ; A. Corner (3) ; O. Roberts, (3)
(1) Austrian Institute for Sustainable Development, Vienna, Austria; (2) Environment Agency Austria, Vienna, Austria; (3) Climate Outreach and Information Network (COIN), Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Given the latest scientific observations regarding global warming, there is an urgent need to enhance the outreach of climate change communication efforts in order to mainstream low carbon lifestyles (APCC 2014). This is specifically relevant for young people, as their future is most affected by the consequences of global warming. It is evident that the predominantly negative communication of climate change - including catastrophic imagery - simply does not positively engage (young) people in low carbon behavior (O'Neill & Nicholson-Cole 2009, Hibberd & Nguyen 2013). The ongoing research project AUTreach (funded by the Austrian Climate and Energy Fund) aims to enhance the outreach of climate communication in Austria towards young people by shifting the focus of climate communication towards environmental, personal and social benefits of climate-aware behavior, as well as towards desirable solutions for young people’s daily lives. It focusses on whether and how such alternative ways of communicating climate change issues – e.g. positive framing of messages and choosing communication formats relevant to the young’s needs and habits - can catalyse low carbon behavior among young people.

The project is coordinated in a transdisciplinary manner, actively involving young people and climate change communicators e.g. scientists, NGO’s, lecturers, teachers, policy makers. As a first step, an extensive literature review and a quantitative online survey among young Austrians were conducted to evaluate young people’s level of awareness, knowledge and engagement regarding climate change and low carbon behavior. Secondly, several workshops with young people were carried out to test possible stimulating effects of different communication formats.  In these workshops also good-practice formats, which have been nominated by stakeholders before, were tested. Thirdly, three events that aimed to trigger climate engagement among this audience (“Encourage sustainability”/ lecture, “Earthtalks”/ annual evening event, “UN climate reporter”/social simulation) were evaluated in a qualitative ex-post analysis, interviewing young participants one month after the events.

In light of the conclusions of the literature review (Corner et al., submitted), and the findings of the online survey, a list of youth-specific success factors for climate communication has been derived. These success factors were further revised and supplemented by the results of the workshops and the (ongoing) ex-post evaluation. The following criteria have been identified as key in fostering behavioural change among young people through climate communication:

- frame message-content based on the values most relevant to young people

- phrase clear messages using the target group’s language

- stress & strengthen perceived self-efficacy of young people

- provide concrete solutions applicable & relevant to young people’s daily lives

- use formats that include social interaction & fun

- consider visual design & possible incentives

The wide spectrum of project results will be summarized concisely for stakeholders by creating an online toolbox to support them in developing youth-oriented climate communication formats. The toolbox will be co-created with young people in a one day workshop towards the end of the project and be presented in a final stakeholder workshop facilitated by young people.

APCC (2014): Austrian Assessment Report Climate Change 2014 (AAR14) - Summary for Policymakers and Synthesis. Austrian Panel on Climate Change, 95.

Corner, A., Roberts, O., Chiari, S., Völler, S., Mayrhuber, E., Mandl, S., Monson, K. (submitted): How do young people engage with climate change? Submitted to WIREs Climate change.

Hibberd, M., Nguyen, A. (2013): Climate change communications and young people in the Kingdom. International Journal of Media and Cultural Politics 9(1), 27–46.

O’Neill, S. & Nicholson-Cole, S. (2009): “Fear Won't Do It. Promoting Positive Engagement With Climate Change Through Visual and Iconic Representations." Science Communication, 30,3. 355-379.

The Environment and Data: Using Quantitative Data and Methodology to Encourage Environmental Civic Responsibility

M. Perks (Concordia University, Montreal, QC, Canada)

Abstract details
The Environment and Data: Using Quantitative Data and Methodology to Encourage Environmental Civic Responsibility

M. Perks (1)
(1) Concordia University, Sociology & Anthropology, Montreal, QC, Canada

Abstract content

This paper analyzes the innovative potential of working with the Households and Environment Survey, run biennially by Statistics Canada, while proposing new instruments of measurement using this nation-wide data. Previous research has focused on small geographic areas and not in nation-wide contexts. In addition to this, the focus of research around eco-citizenship has been mainly theoretical and/or used qualitative methods. While this work has been critical to scholarly understanding of the situation and conceptualization regarding eco-citizenship, it has mainly dismissed the vast amount of aggregate data available to researchers.

This paper considers emergent innovations regarding the ways in which we might incorporate this data, as well as new quantitative methods and instruments, into environmental sociology. The data available provides a unique opportunity to create and implement an index for the analysis of our current situation regarding Canadian participation in behaviours indicative of eco-citizenship. This research will subsequently allow me to develop further instruments and tools to build upon scholarly understanding of eco-citizenship at nation-wide and global levels.

This paper will also create a framework that could be developed for use in other countries, generating new information on the status of eco-citizenship. The author looks into the civic responsibility and governance issues surrounding the use of highly statistical, government collected data and exercising what may seem to be a top-down authoritative approach compared to usual environmental approaches emphasizing horizontal authority. While initially problematic, the author believes that it is not the use of data that defines this action but how that data is used. Therefore, what is being exercised is not responsiblization through statistics, but an engagement in environmental civic responsibility to bring citizens and communities into the knowledge and process.

Towards solutions that transcend technology and markets: The role of choices and behaviour change

S. Pahl (Plymouth University, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom), A. Pegels (German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklkungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, Germany), Y. Mulugetta (University College London, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Towards solutions that transcend technology and markets: The role of choices and behaviour change

S. Pahl (1) ; A. Pegels (2) ; Y. Mulugetta (3)
(1) Plymouth University, Psychology, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom; (2) German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklkungspolitik (DIE), Sustainable economic and social development, Bonn, Germany; (3) University College London, Science, Technology, Engineering & Public Policy, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Human choices and behaviour play a crucial role in climate change. “Human beings are the cause of the transformation, and only action by human beings can save the world from its worst impacts“ (US Secretary of State John Kerry, Sept 27,  2013). This session explores how research on choices and behaviour can facilitate interdisciplinary, integrative responses to climate change. Talks will draw on social science theories and present novel data that contribute to three types of solutions: Better engagement with the public, interventions that change behaviour, and policy responses. The explicit aim of our session is to go beyond technological and market solutions and focus on behaviour change solutions. A considerable though not exclusive focus of this session will be on energy efficiency and savings, offering solutions for the double challenge of climate change mitigation and development. The IEA estimates that 18 per cent of the global population lack access to electricity. At the same time, the energy sector accounted for over 70 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2011. Greenhouse gas emissions overall have grown more between 2000 and 2010 than in the previous three decades. Addressing carbon emissions and reforming the energy system will be vital for limiting global warming but poses different challenges for industrialised and developing countries. While technological innovation and carbon prize mechanisms will play a major role in transitioning towards a low emissions economy, it is questionable whether this technological and market frame is sufficient to realise this transition. Human decisions, behaviours and broader lifestyles are key to achieving a meaningful, acceptable and inclusive transition. Only taking a “people-focused” perspective will provide a buffer against market failures such as risk, imperfect information, hidden costs, access to capital, and split incentives. Contributions will discuss the key factors that contribute to behaviour change by presenting the results of empirical studies (e.g., interventions) and whether specific behaviours can “spill” over to other domains. We will also consider whether a behaviour change approach is too narrow in the face of broader patterns of habits and ‘locked-in’ lifestyles. This session will bring together social scientists including economists and psychologists, scientists, engineers and policy makers to explore the potential of behavioural, choice and lifestyle solutions to addressing climate change. The session  finishes  with  our  team  working  with  three  specialists  in  global  environmental change. Michael Depledge (Professor of Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter,  UK)  will  lead  this  discussion,  drawing  on  his  experience  as  advisor  to  the United  Nations  and  the  European  Commission. Together we will sketch a map illustrating how social science theories and data might be used to enhance our responses to climate change and foster sustainable lifestyles. Six speakers are planned with 10 minutes for each presentation, plus a poster session and a panel discussion at the end.

Addressing the behavioural gap in energy/economy models: Outcomes of the BE4 Workshop and outlook for the state-of-the-art

H. Daly (UCL Energy Institute, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Addressing the behavioural gap in energy/economy models: Outcomes of the BE4 Workshop and outlook for the state-of-the-art

H. Daly (1)
(1) UCL Energy Institute, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) simulate long-term least-cost energy system trajectories with high technology resolution, and are frequently used to better understand the trade-offs of sustainable technology transition possibilities for the future energy system. ESOMs are commonly used to portray the whole energy system, depicting energy technologies at every stage in the fuel supply chain, from fuel extraction through to final end-use. These models are heavily used in national decision-making and have been influential in the design of low-carbon policies, and so bare a burden of responsibility in realistically depicting energy system dynamics. 

 

Whole-system energy modelling approaches have been successful at capturing the technological complexity and economic feedbacks of the energy system, and are used as integrating frameworks to explore the trade-offs in climate mitigation, fuel poverty and energy security priorities. However, building sustainable energy systems requires a focus on behaviour, along with technological development: Behaviour plays a major role in the uptake and use of energy technologies, in driving energy service demand, and its treatment cannot be excluded from the analysis of long-term energy transitions.  Researchers are increasingly looking to integrate insights across disciplines to increase the behavioural realism of ESOMs and include mitigation opportunities from behaviour change, along with technological and fuel solutions, in these highly influential models.

 

This contribution will address the growing priority of better representing behaviour in energy modelling approaches by bringing to the wider mitigation modelling community outcomes from the International BE4 Workshop, which is to be held on April 20th and 21st, 2015, at University College London*. BE4 will bring together for the first time energy system researchers with expertise and interest in representing behaviour in energy/economy/engineering/environment (E4) models, aiming to develop a common understanding of the state-of-the-art in this emerging field, to identify knowledge gaps, and for the community to gain exposure to research in other fields which has successfully integrated behaviour into other modelling approaches. The workshop will have high-profile speakers and sessions describing state-of-the-art research. BE4 is funded by IEA-ETSAP, a consortium of  teams led by the IEA that actively cooperate to establish, maintain, and expand E4 model capacity, and WholeSEM, a consortium which plays an underpinning role for the UK’s national strategic energy modelling activity. 

 

BE4, and this presentation, will address the following themes:

  • Heterogeneity in the population;

  • Hidden costs in decision-making;

  • Non-cost-optimal decision frameworks;

  • Discrete choice analysis in whole-system approaches;

  • Agent based modelling approaches;

  • Integration of social sciences with E4 modelling. 

Arising from this workshop, this conference contribution will review the challenges that face integrated energy and mitigation planning tools across temporal and spacial scales.

*http://www.wholesem.ac.uk/wholesem-events-repository/be4-workshop

Behaviour change for household energy use: The example of visualising heat loss through thermal imaging

S. Pahl (Plymouth University, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom), C. Boomsma, (Plymouth University, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom), J. Goodhew, (Plymouth University, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Behaviour change for household energy use: The example of visualising heat loss through thermal imaging

S. Pahl (1) ; C. Boomsma, (1) ; J. Goodhew, (1)
(1) Plymouth University, Psychology, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom

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Contribution to session no. 3316 (convened by Pahl, Pegels & Mulugetta)

Energy use plays an important role in climate change and is linked to issues of energy security and fuel poverty. Householders in particular play a key role in energy conservation through the decisions they make about purchases and installations such as insulation, and through their habitual behaviour. However, energy has been described as abstract and intangible thus making it difficult for individuals to relate to in a meaningful way and know the best actions to take. The present project summarises a programme of work that visualises household energy in order to encourage behaviour change and reduce carbon emissions related to the home. The visualisation tool is “thermal imaging” which makes the invisible visible by using infrared photography. Thermal images demonstrate how heat escapes and cold air enters the home. In Study 1, householders, who received a thermal image of their own home, reduced their energy use at a 1-year follow-up, whereas householders who received a carbon footprint audit and a non-intervention control demonstrated no change. In a second study, householders were nearly 5 times more likely to install draught proofing measures after seeing a thermal image of their home. The effect was especially pronounced for actions that addressed an issue visible in the images. A third study explored the level of tailoring that is needed to change householder intentions and behaviour. Thermal images were shared with more people (social multiplication) and associated with stronger intentions and actions, when they were tailored and personal to people’s own home, compared to images that showed a typical home. But seeing any thermal image (whether personal or typical) led to better memory and higher behavioural intentions, compared to text only. Finally, an update will be given on an ongoing study that tests the power of thermal images as a communication tool with 6,000 householders invited to take part in a home improvement programme. This study compares the effect of thermal images that visualise the problem (‘before’) with thermal images that visualise the problem together with a solution (‘before’ – ‘after), and with a control group that does not see any images. Limitations and challenges of this applied interdisciplinary research will be discussed briefly. The potential for thermal imaging visualisation in other contexts will be highlighted. In conclusion, thermal images seem capable of overcoming the invisibility of energy said to be a barrier to behaviour change. 

Co-design of a place-based educational videogame on climate change: Future Delta 2.0

S. Sheppard (CALP, Vancouver, Canada)

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Co-design of a place-based educational videogame on climate change: Future Delta 2.0

S. Sheppard (1)
(1) CALP, Vancouver, Canada

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Contribution to session no. 3316 (convened by Dr. Sabine Pahl)

This presentation describes a co-creation and evaluation process for a community-based interactive educational videogame on local climate change solutions, developed for a case study in the coastal municipality of Delta, British Columbia, Canada.

This project uses video gaming to enable interactive exploration of local climate change threats and solutions in a real place.  Delta faces challenges such as sea level rise, agricultural decline, heat-waves, and growth fuelled in part by environmental refugees.  The project builds on the Collaborative for Advanced Landscape Planning (CALP) team’s earlier research in Delta, collaborating with various levels of government and multiple stakeholders, and demonstrating the power of science-based visualizations in raising awareness and motivation on climate change. The aim is to make climate change science and solutions more salient and creative, in a way that conventional educational methods often fail to achieve.  The videogame will allow players to visualize what their own future might look like, and explore a variety of tough choices that citizens of Delta may need to make.

Taking advantage of earlier Future Delta videogame prototypes, the co-design phase focuses on local high-schools, in partnership with Delta School district.  The game design borrows from commercial videogame techniques in order to provide a compelling virtual environment for: i) place-based learning in geography and science classes, and ii) student engagement on local climate change realities, collective action and policies for adaptation and mitigation. Teachers and students will design the game collaboratively with researchers, through an iterative process of focus groups and gameplay sessions.  Participants provide input on integration of class/curriculum learning objectives, the fun of game play, and storyline ideas reflecting local themes and identity.

The presentation will report on the co-design process and preliminary evaluation results on input from students, teachers, families and friends, shedding new light on responses to climate change impacts and choices in a videogame environment.

 

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation through Agro forestry systems in Wolaita Zone, Southern Highland of Ethiopia, East Africa

W. Hailesilassie (National Meteorological Agency, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

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Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation through Agro forestry systems in Wolaita Zone, Southern Highland of Ethiopia, East Africa

W. Hailesilassie (1)
(1) National Meteorological Agency, Numerical Weather Prediction, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Climate change is one of the most serious threats the world faces. It will affect all of us, but will have disproportionate impacts on millions of poor rural people in Ethiopia.  For development work to be effective, we must not only help poor rural people emerge from poverty, we must also enable them to cope with and mitigate the impact of climate change. Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change, because of the subsistence nature of the farming practices, and because communities have little resources to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Farmer’s adaptive capacity is constrained by a lack of economic and technical resources, and they are vulnerable due to a heavy dependence on rain-fed crops.  While agro forestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. This paper presents data that examine the mitigation and adaptation potential of different agro forestry systems. Hence, the research questions those need to be answered concerning the role of agro forestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change. It is recommended that in low-income and food-deficit regions livelihoods including food security and climate change cannot be tackled in isolation.

The Nexus of Climate Downscaling Using RegCM4 and Hydrology dynamics in Ghana

R. Kasei (University for Development Studies, Tamale, Ghana)

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The Nexus of Climate Downscaling Using RegCM4 and Hydrology dynamics in Ghana

R. Kasei (1)
(1) University for Development Studies, Climate Change and Food Security, Tamale, Ghana

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Climate Downscaling is a term adopted in climate science in recent years to describe a set of techniques that relate local to regional-scale climate variables in relation to the larger scale atmospheric forcing. Theoretically, the techniques are advancements of the known traditional techniques in synoptic climatology. Climate downscaling specifically addresses the detailed temporal and spatial information from Global Climate Models (GCMs) required by precise researches of today. The Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), with horizontal resolution of 55 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM5 simulations forced with observed SSTs over southern Ghana. For each of the ECHAM5 AGCM integrations a nested integration with the REGCM was done for the period January–June 1961–2000. Six-hour wind, temperature, humidity, and surface pressure data from ECHAM45 AGCM outputs were linearly interpolated in time and in space onto REGCM grids as base fields. The results of the comparison for the Densu catchment station showed a good correlation between the observed REGCM-simulated monthly rainfalls with significant statistics. Although no coherent trends were found in the basin, interannual rainfall variability was more pronounced as revealed by the REGCM 4 simulations. The northern part of the basin is most vulnerable to these variations because it has a monomodal rainfall pattern compared to the south which has relatively higher rainfall amounts due to its bi-modal rainfall pattern. The SPI analysis conducted on projected precipitation based on REGCM using IPCC’s A1B and B1 scenarios against the base period of 1961-2000 showed both scenarios agreeing to a general drying trend for the future. Results show that precipitation will decrease by up to 70% in some areas and the duration of the rainy season will narrow, which may have extensive implications for agriculture and city water supply. In lieu of this, adaptation will be central to sustaining development and four response measures are discussed as being cardinal to this process. These include mainstreaming adaptation into policy planning processes at varied levels, enhancing water conservation for agriculture, promoting the cultivation of drought resistant and early maturing crop varieties, and promoting access to food through technical and economic infrastructure and services that facilitate food exchange.Climate Downscaling is a term adopted in climate science in recent years to describe a set of techniques that relate local to regional-scale climate variables in relation to the larger scale atmospheric forcing. Theoretically, the techniques are advancements of the known traditional techniques in synoptic climatology. Climate downscaling specifically addresses the detailed temporal and spatial information from Global Climate Models (GCMs) required by precise researches of today. The Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4), with horizontal resolution of 55 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM5 simulations forced with observed SSTs over southern Ghana. For each of the ECHAM5 AGCM integrations a nested integration with the REGCM was done for the period January–June 1961–2000.  The results of the comparison for the Densu catchment station showed a good correlation between the observed REGCM-simulated monthly rainfalls with significant statistics. Although no coherent trends were found in the basin, interannual rainfall variability was more pronounced as revealed by the REGCM 4 simulations. The northern part of the basin is most vulnerable to these variations because it has a monomodal rainfall pattern compared to the south which has relatively higher rainfall amounts due to its bi-modal rainfall pattern. The SPI analysis conducted on projected precipitation based on REGCM using IPCC’s A1B and B1 scenarios against the base period of 1961-2000 showed both scenarios agreeing to a general drying trend for the future. Results show that precipitation will decrease by up to 70% in some areas and the duration of the rainy season will narrow, which may have extensive implications for agriculture and city water supply. In lieu of this, adaptation will be central to sustaining development and four response measures are discussed as being cardinal to this process. These include mainstreaming adaptation into policy planning processes at varied levels, enhancing water conservation for agriculture, promoting the cultivation of drought resistant and early maturing crop varieties, and promoting access to food through technical and economic infrastructure and services that facilitate food exchange.

Responding to Sustainability Challenges in Irrigation Sector: Community-based Integrated ICT Solutions for Sub-Saharan Africa

H. Mongi (The University of Dodoma, Dodoma, Tanzania, United Republic of), A. Mvuma, (The University of Dodoma, Dodoma, Tanzania, United Republic of), A. Sife, (Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania, United Republic of)

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Responding to Sustainability Challenges in Irrigation Sector: Community-based Integrated ICT Solutions for Sub-Saharan Africa

H. Mongi (1) ; A. Mvuma, (1) ; A. Sife, (2)
(1) The University of Dodoma, Information Systems, Dodoma, Tanzania, United Republic of; (2) Sokoine University of Agriculture, Sokoine national agricultural library, Morogoro, Tanzania, United Republic of

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Irrigation is the most water intensive sector, consuming nearly three quarters of global fresh water resources. Significant number of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are emphasizing on expansion of land under irrigation to offset food insecurity brought about by climate change and other factors. This is happening amid increasing evidences on declining fresh water resources in the same region, therefore triggering options to their sustainable management. This contribution highlights some technologies to enhance decision making, coordination and control in the community level as part of concerted responses to address sustainability challenges in the water sector. The solutions were developed involving stakeholders in three SSA countries: Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. Testing focused on small scale but sensitive irrigation schemes around Trans-boundary Lake Victoria Basin in Tanzania’s part. Among priority adaptation options for climate change is to develop, pilot implement and scale-up information systems. The paper describes integrated Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) solutions that have been developed with and for communities to support coordination for sustainable water resources in the SSA. They provide tools and techniques that can create a common platform for sharing information at the bottom level. They provide many options through which community can engage in giving and receiving information regarding water resources. These solutions are believed to improve coordination, decision making and control on water resources for irrigation thereby contributing to sustainable water for agriculture, livestock and domestic uses.

Barriers and enablers to climate change adaptation in four South African municipalities, and implications for Community Based Adaptation

M. Spires (Rhodes University and ICLEI Africa, Grahamstown and Cape Town, South Africa), S. Shackleton (Rhodes University, Grahamstown, South Africa)

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Barriers and enablers to climate change adaptation in four South African municipalities, and implications for Community Based Adaptation

M. Spires (1) ; S. Shackleton (2)
(1) Rhodes University and ICLEI Africa, Grahamstown and Cape Town, South Africa; (2) Rhodes University, Environmental Science, Grahamstown, South Africa

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Despite the fact that municipalities have a vital role to play in planning and implementing climate change adaptation, numerous barriers are encountered when they do so, especially at the community level. A study was conducted to analyse these barriers and enablers, both via literature review and case study analysis of four South African municipalities. Comparison of barriers and enablers across the case studies revealed a number of key themes. Municipalities struggle to implement climate change adaptation and community based adaptation within contexts of significant social, economic and ecological challenges. These contextual barriers, when combined with certain cognitive barriers, lead to reactive responses. Existing municipal systems and structures make it difficult to enable climate change adaptation, which is inherently cross-sectoral and messy, and especially community based adaptation that is bottom-up and participatory. Lack of locally applicable knowledge, funding and human resources were found to be significant resource barriers, and were often underlain by social barriers relating to perceptions, norms, discourses and governance challenges. Enablers of engaged officials, operating within enabling organisational environments and drawing on partnerships and networks, were able to overcome or circumvent these barriers. When these enablers coincided with windows of opportunity that increased the prioritisation of climate change within the municipality, projects with ancillary benefits were often implemented.

The African Safe Water Supply Challenges: Moringa Technology as an Alternative Approach

A. Bashir Yusuf (AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA, ZARIA, KADUNA, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

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The African Safe Water Supply Challenges: Moringa Technology as an Alternative Approach

A. Bashir Yusuf (1)
(1) AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA, BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, ZARIA, KADUNA, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

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Water is one of the most important indicator of climate change today. This is seen in the two extremes of water supply, either being short through erratic rain spills affecting consumption and agriculture or excessive supply through flooding. In traditional African rural settlement, water for human consumption during the rainy season in particular is highly turbid with the consequence of water-borne diseases. “In the developing world, more than 1 billion people cannot get clean drinking water... The United Nations says that dirty water causes 80 percent of diseases in the developing world, and kills 10 million people annually.” While similar water supply during same season in urban centres is difficult to treat by water works departments since they depend on the clarification by importing aluminium sulphate. However, the existence of a natural coagulant from Moringa seed holds promise as a substitute to the chemical coagulant of alum. The practice of using Moringa seed in water treatment has been scientifically proven both at small household and large community pilot scale. Local varieties of Moringa from Nigeria has been shown to contain 18-20% cationic protein (MOCP) that is active on coagulation and against common microbes in untreated water. MOCP act on microbe by fusing their inner and outer membranes affecting exchange within and outside their cellular component. This paper highlights role of the Moringa seed technology in water treatment as a substitute to aluminium sulphate with the aim of portable safe drinking provision in Africa and other developing nations.

The role of indigenous knowledge systems in climate change, prediction, adaptation and mitigation in sub Saharan Africa

P. L. Mafongoya (University of KwaZulu Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa), N. Chanza (Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa), C. Mubaya (Chinhoyi University of Technology, Chinhoyi, Zimbabwe)

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The role of indigenous knowledge systems in climate change, prediction, adaptation and mitigation in sub Saharan Africa

PL. Mafongoya (1) ; N. Chanza (2) ; C. Mubaya (3)
(1) University of KwaZulu Natal, Agriculture, Earth and Environmental Science, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa; (2) Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Department of geosciences, Port Elizabeth, South Africa; (3) Chinhoyi University of Technology, Resource mobilisation, Chinhoyi, Zimbabwe

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The recognition of the significance of indigenous knowledge systems (IKS) has only begun to emerge at the international level in the last few years. Understanding the nature and relevance of IKS for climate change adaptation and mitigation is a new and expanding area of collaborating research involving indigenous people, local communities and scientist. IKS is the basis of community based observations of climate impact and traditional practices and mechanisms that provide a robust basis for climate change response. IKS can be defined as ecological knowledge or accumulative board of knowledge, practice and belief, evolving by adaptive processes and handed down through generations by cultural transmission about relationships of people with one another and their environment. For communities to adapt to climate change it is critical for them to perceive how climate is changing. Farmers have the following perception on climate change, shorting of growing season, changes in rainfall characteristics, increase in temperature, changes in wind characteristics and extreme events such as droughts, floods, dry spells, cyclones and increased incidence of pests and diseases. Farmers in Africa use indigenous knowledge systems for weather forecasting and prediction of season quality. They use a combination of tree phenology, animal behavior such as insects and birds and atmospheric phenomena such as the shape of the moon, type of clouds and wind direction. In most cases seasonal quality forecast and scientific forecast are identical. Scientific forecast may able to compliment indigenous forecast so as to mitigate the loss of traditional weather and climate indicators. Farmers use indigenous practices to adapt to climate change and mitigation.

Demographic and Socioeconomic Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nigerian Savannah

P. Elias (University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

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Demographic and Socioeconomic Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Nigerian Savannah

P. Elias (1)
(1) University of Lagos, Geography, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

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The paper examines the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of rural farming communities as determinants of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Nigerian Savannah. The Nigerian savannah has been seriously affected by human activities which have reduced its capacity to support the teaming rural farming communities and livelihood systems. The fact that livelihood systems in the region are closely tied to terrestrial ecosystems and changes in global climate further exacerbates the conditions of the rural farmers. The demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of selected agricultural communities in the Nigerian Savanna were examined with the view to assessing their vulnerability and adaption to climate change. The methodology for the study was based on multistage random sampling technique and Rural Rapid Appraisal (RPP) of 11 communities across 10 Local Government Areas (LGAs) in two states of the southwest and north central Nigeria. Site visits, Key Informant Interview of traditional rulers and Government officials were carried out while an intensive Focused Group Discussion among all the actors was done. The role of education, income from farm and other sources, ability to diversify, willingness to adapt, proportion of savings, and local adaptation mechanisms were identified and used to examine the relationship between indicators of vulnerability and adaptation of local farmers and communities to climate change in the region. By matching indicators of vulnerability and factors of local adaptation it help the understanding of local actions, barriers to adaption, present and future capacities.

The gender, age, marital status and size of households of the respondents reveal typical rural farming communities with large family sizes, low education and incomes from predominantly farming activities (65.8%). These conditions could perpetuate poverty and predispose rural farmers and their households to vulnerability to climate change impacts which could also limit adaptation. However, the paper analyse the opportunities to make money from other sources which shows that they could be protected from unexpected shocks from climate change and increase their resilience through the diversification of livelihoods. The poor culture of savings in these communities which cannot be divorced from their poor incomes from farm-based activities could limit adaptation. The results shows that the farming communities are facing the realities of climate change with 30% of the sampled population involved in adaptation while 21.9% are not. Some of the adaptation methods include use of fertilizer to boost production, shifting cultivation and irrigation while 17.2% do not know what to do. The farming communities deploy irrigation and organic farming, irrigation and rain harvesting and hiring of more labour as means of improving farming activities. The paper suggests that there should be a rural development policy to increase opportunities and prospects of non-farm activities and promote the culture of savings in these communities. The identified strategies for ameliorating climate change and improving farm activities must be developed sustainably to reduce vulnerability and ensure rural adaptation. This should engage the interest of policy makers if poverty eradication or at worst reduction is a sincere aspiration for the region.

Impacts of climate change on water resources and relevant adaptation strategies in upper catchment of Pangani basin in Tanzania

S. Mwakalila (University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of)

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Impacts of climate change on water resources and relevant adaptation strategies in upper catchment of Pangani basin in Tanzania

S. Mwakalila (1)
(1) University of Dar es Salaam, Geography, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of

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The climate change impact on water resources is the major challenge across the Pangani basin in Tanzania. In some areas, too little water leads to droughts and desertification, whereas in others too much water leads to increased flooding. The Tanzania Agriculture Policy advocates for improved water use efficiency as an adaptation strategy, which can help the nation to achieve in improvement of food security; increasing farmer’s productivity and income. Following local peoples’ perception, the major climate change impact is drought (78%) with high frequency of occurrence. Irrigated agriculture which depends on water resources is by far the largest water use sector in Tanzania, is affected by changes in water availability that is caused by climate change. Climate change also alters irrigation water demand. Higher temperatures and more variable rainfall tend to increase water demand per unit of irrigated area. The adverse effects of climate change is felt by poor communities because of their low adaptive capacity associated with limited financial resources, poor infrastructure, low level of education, dependence on natural resources and lesser access to technology. Traditional irrigated agriculture is the most common adaptation strategy for crop production and account for more than 79% of the total irrigation schemes in the study area. Traditional irrigated agriculture which is the most common adaptation measure for crop production is usually associated with significant water losses and low crop productivity. Traditional schemes are usually initiated and operated by farmers themselves, with no external intervention or support. They include schemes based on traditional furrows for production of paddy, maize and vegetables. Traditional schemes are usually characterized by locally improvised infrastructure which is poorly constructed and temporary in nature. They are often associated with low productivity due to poor farming and water management practices. Intake structures are made from locally available materials like stones, grass, earth, wooden poles and straw. Intake structures are usually built across the river, partially or wholly blocking the channel, and are thus prone to damage during high river flows. The majority of intakes do not have control gates to regulate the amount of water entering the furrow. Conveyance canals are usually hand dug and not lined to minimize seepage. Because the canals are unlined, they quickly get clogged by vegetation growth which reduces their efficiency. The canals typically lack flow control devices for effective conveyance and distribution. This implies that, traditional irrigation has low efficiency due to wastage of water sources from the source to the field level.Promotion of efficient irrigation water use and adoption of good farming practices is, therefore, critical to ensuring sustainable use and management of the water resources for sustaining local peoples’ livelihoods in Tanzania. Since water demands have intensified with the increase of economic activities such as irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, livestock keeping, fisheries and wildlife activities, this paper recommends effective implementation of integrated water resources management as adaptation measure to be enhanced and implemented, to ensuring sustainable use and management of water resources for sustainable development.

 

Keywords: Climate Change, Adaptation strategies, integrated water resources management, water use efficiency.

 

◾Freshwater Resources, ◾Perceptions of Climate Change, ◾ ◾Agricultural Adaptation

 

Biomass Economy in the Era of Politicization and Economization of Nature in Africa: A Case for Clean Energy Transition

A. I. S. Okoh (Benue state university, Makurdi, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

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Biomass Economy in the Era of Politicization and Economization of Nature in Africa: A Case for Clean Energy Transition

AIS. Okoh (1)
(1) Benue state university, political science, Makurdi, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

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Over the next 25 years, 600 million people to over 700 million will rely on biomass energy in Africa. According to International Energy Agency 61.2% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa will depend on biomass and waste for total primary energy demand when you exclude South Africa, it is 81.2%. Yet, biomass economy as a vital sector of the economy is not integrated into the national development plan of most states. Traditional biomass is mostly unplanned heightening depletion of resources. Africa will witness increases in biomass consumption in 2035 whereas in other regions will witness decreases. With business as usual scenario Africa consumption will rise with exponential population explosion leading to between 51% - 57% higher demands for biomass in 2035. With greenhouse gases reaching 400ppm, man-made climate change will be a barrier to attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of this generation putting an end to poverty in 2030. However, ending global poverty is inextricably linked to energy consumption and production which will also exacerbate climate change. Resolving this complexity is critical in the years to come in that they are mutually reinforcing in Africa. In recognition, many countries made remarkable progress towards resolving this challenge by integrating renewable energy into the energy supply mix in the transition to zero society. However, carbon emission play vital role in clean economy as net zero emission and green growth are not just coterminous but axiomatic necessities. Yet, such necessity is also inter-related with our biospheric limits. Carbon-based growth for low income countries of Africa will ensure transition to middle income economy but such growth is based on resources depletion. For Africa, natural capital is still the large bowl for the transition to middle income country. I argue that though clean energy transition is the future to low carbon civilization. But for many countries in Africa biomass still holds more potential for improving economic wellbeing of the poor. Despite this beneficial attribute, biomass extraction will not only magnify existing inequalities within the continent but will result in reversal of growth. It is my contention there are still many gray areas in clean economy as unsustainable extraction and consumption will continue into the future reinforcing climate-related extreme events. This will require dramatic low carbon trajectory which aims at eco-efficient utilization of green infrastructure. And as such, it is a paradox of cohabiting extremes in the politicization and economization of nature in Africa. 

In this paper, the above dilemma is closely examined in the light of its impediment to the food system and meeting SDGs. Finding an enduring energy policy solution to food insecurity will require an ecologically responsible food system that is not undermined by land grabs for biofuel production. This then prompts us to ask: Can Africa's biomass economy made eco-efficient? In what ways has Africa's energy policy mix changed with the politicization and economization of nature? Has Africa's clean energy complex imbibed principle of allocative justice? Can policy reforms rebalance growth towards net zero trajectories? The answers to these questions shall be uncovered through secondary data sources which will point us towards proffering adjustments for policy changes. We conclude by advocating a policy mix of materialization and dematerialization as solution to agro-ecological deteriorations. This will require dramatic changes in production or consumption critical in biomass economy as different phases of the economic process may cancel each other out when it comes to overall energy consumption. To achieve efficient use of energy will require a new roadmap called food sovereignty economy. This model advocates some form of dematerialization if we will not lock present generation into a fossil fuel dependent future. It combines eco-friendly policies of food sovereignty and sufficiency economy to set a pathway to net negative emissions in the attainment of SDGs.

Keywords:Clean energy transition, degrowth, Policy, Ecological Equilibrium, Biomass Economy, Food security, Clean Economy, (De)materialization. 

Food security in African drylands: Learning from socio-ecological patterns of smallholder agriculture

D. Sietz (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), J. Ordoñez, (ICRAF, Turrialba, Costa Rica), M. Kok (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), P. Janssen, (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), H. Hilderink, (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), D. H. Van (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands)

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Food security in African drylands: Learning from socio-ecological patterns of smallholder agriculture

D. Sietz (1) ; J. Ordoñez, (2) ; M. Kok (3) ; P. Janssen, (3) ; H. Hilderink, (3) ; DH. Van (1)
(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) ICRAF, Turrialba, Costa Rica; (3) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands

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Food production is key to achieving food security in African drylands. Agricultural productivity is however significantly constrained due to climate variability, low water supply, limited soil fertility and farmers’ remoteness from decision-making centres. In addition, future climate change is projected to further undermine agricultural productivity. Vulnerability is employed as a concept to capture the relation between farming systems and climate stresses impacting upon these systems. To promote learning for a food secure future, we present a quantitative and spatially-explicit typology of smallholders’ vulnerability in the drylands of Sub-Sahara Africa. This typology explicitly incorporates malnutrition as cause and consequence of vulnerability. We indicated the most relevant socio-ecological properties of dryland farming systems at a sub-national resolution including child malnutrition, water availability, soil erosion sensitivity, agropotential, income, population density, urban population share, distance to markets and governance. Cluster analysis revealed nine typical patterns of vulnerability showing distinct indicator combinations. For example, one pattern depicts high levels of child malnutrition, a poor resource base and poor governance and is indicated in the hyper-arid to semi-arid areas of eastern Africa. This typology enables the evaluation of key inter-linkages between smallholders’ climate vulnerability and food security. Their evaluation facilitates the transfer of successful strategies for resilience building based on similarities among the farming systems and supports the identification of entry points for managing transitions towards a food secure future. The manageable number of socio-ecological patterns enable new insights into the prioritisation of interventions to improve and monitor food security.

Harnessing the multidimensional climate and non-climate signals to livelihood vulnerability and adaptive capacity in Kaffrine, Sénégal

A. Diouf (Institut des Science de l'Environnement, Dakar-Senegal, Senegal), C. Mbow (Institut des Science de l'Environnement, Dakar-Senegal, Senegal)

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Harnessing the multidimensional climate and non-climate signals to livelihood vulnerability and adaptive capacity in Kaffrine, Sénégal

A. Diouf (1) ; C. Mbow (1)
(1) Institut des Science de l'Environnement, Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Dakar-Senegal, Senegal

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The Increase of rainfall variability has since the beginning of the 1970s, one of the common threats of semi-arid countries with rapid and strong anomalies and extreme events. Kaffrine is one of those areas facing these rapidly dynamic climate challenges that affect both productive systems and populations income. The history of this site exhibits a long lasting domination of groundnut production for cash and high dependence to forest resources for income and mostly as a livelihood asset. Both groundnut cultivation as a rain fed crop and forest resources are impacted severely by climate variability, but the magnitude of the climate drivers has not been fully accounted systematically in assessing vulnerability and subsequently developing adaption strategies that are context specific.

With the increasing local empowerment through devolution of natural resources management, many policy decisions are undertaken for sustainable development and socio-economic resilience at community level. Accounting for the real weight of climatic factor on livelihood dynamics can help better understand the essential variables or derivatives of vulnerability to co-design proper options  for improved resilience in Kaffrine. The research question is how to set a series of criteria and climate indicators that help understand the real climate impact and how population are responding to those. The central hypothesis is that climate may be important but not sufficient information to understand communities’ vulnerability in poverty condition.

We combined data collection through the AMMA WP 3.2 (questionnaire and interview guide applied at 14 villages across Kaffrine), statistical national data and cartographic tool, we try 1) to show how rainfall variability  in Kaffrine  affect livelihood dynamics, 2) to assess adaptive capacities of  Kaffrine communities.

This results show important indicators of climate variability that are affect ecosystems and society. The study did not allow us to conclude that climate variability was the only driving force of livelihood and land degradation in Kaffrine. We conclude that scenarios on adaptation should consider both climate and non-climate factors such as basic land management systems. Options, potentials and constraints of adaptive capacity, must be based on integrated assessment of local stressors.

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Predicting future climate for adaptation in northern Côte d'Ivoire: contribution of statistical downscaling model

K. Yao Etienne (Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d'Ivoire, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), K. Brama (Université Péléforo Gon Coulibaly of Korhogo, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), C. Guéladio (University of Basel, Bâle, Swaziland), S. Issiaka (Université Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), A. Konare (Université Félix Houphouët Boigny of Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

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Predicting future climate for adaptation in northern Côte d'Ivoire: contribution of statistical downscaling model

K. Yao Etienne (1) ; K. Brama (2) ; C. Guéladio (3) ; S. Issiaka (4) ; A. Konare (5)
(1) Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d'Ivoire, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Université Péléforo Gon Coulibaly of Korhogo, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (3) University of Basel, Bâle, Swaziland; (4) Université Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (5) Université Félix Houphouët Boigny of Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Abstract content

In the region of Korhogo in northern Côte d’Ivoire, recent climate variations are marked by a superposition of droughts and floods. These events contribute to weakening the wellbeing of populations, particularly the most vulnerable. To enhance the actual and future resilience and adaptation capacity of these people, it is necessary to have more information on present climatic parameters and their future evolution.

Temperature and rainfall of the white Bandama basin in the region of Korhogo from 1971 to 2000 were collected at the Société d’Exploitation et de Développement Aéroportuaire, Aéronautique et Météorologie (SODEXAM) and processed. Statistical downscaling method was used to project theses data at three horizons: 2020 (2011-2040), 2050 (2041-2070) and 2080 (2071-2099) base on IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios. Model calibration was done by multiple linear regression between four predictor variables derived from the general circulation model HadCM3 and local observation variables (temperatures and rainfall).

The results generally show that the model simulates well enough both temperatures and rainfall. Of the three horizons, the model predicts an average temperature increase of 0.43°C; 0.97°C and 1.63°C. In general, the A2 scenario provides greater increases than B2. Indeed according to A2 scenario, the current minimum temperature (20.87°C) could increase by 0.48°C, 1.16°C and 2.02°C respectively at the horizons 2020, 2050 and 2080. For current average temperatures (26.8°C), the increase could be 0.44°C, 1.13°C and 1.96°C, respectively for the three horizons. When actual maximum temperature (32.27) could increase by 0.31°C, 1.36°C and 1.17°C also for the same horizons. According to B2 scenario, minimum temperature could increase by 0.43°C, 0.82°C and 1.39°C for the three horizons. Current average temperatures could increase by 0.43°C, 1.13°C and 1.33°C according to B2 scenario. And for maximum temperature, increase could be 0.78°C, 1.11°C and 1.14°C. The months of september and october record the higher values of maximum temperatures.

For precipitation, A2 and B2 scenarios presented the same average annual increase of 34% at the 2020 horizon with a margin of error between 10% and 9% respectively. By 2050, the annual increase could be valued at 29% and 33% for A2 and B2. This increase could be 12% and 28% respectively for A2 and B2 by 2080 with lower margins of error of 4% (A2) and 7% (B2). The months of May and June could see the largest increases (149 mm and 109 mm respectively), which is twice the observed quantities. Such information’s are useful for the planning and implementation of programs and plans for adaptation to reduce the potential risks associated with these climatic variations.

Welfare impacts of climate shocks: evidence from Tanzania and Uganda

A. Arslan (FAO of the UN, Rome, Italy), S. Asfaw, (FAO of the UN, Rome, Italy), F. Belotti, (University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy), A. Piano-Mortari, (University of Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy), P. Karfakis (FAO of the UN, Rome, Italy), L. Lipper, (FAO of the UN, Rome, Italy)

Abstract details
Welfare impacts of climate shocks: evidence from Tanzania and Uganda

A. Arslan (1) ; S. Asfaw, (1) ; F. Belotti, (2) ; A. Piano-Mortari, (2) ; P. Karfakis (1) ; L. Lipper, (1)
(1) FAO of the UN, Agricultural Development Economics Division, Rome, Italy; (2) University of Tor Vergata, Ceis, Rome, Italy

Abstract content

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains the world's most food-insecure region characterized by high levels of child mortality and poverty and low levels of human&physical capital (FAO, 2009). SSA countries, including Tanzania and Uganda, heavily depend on a smallholder-based agricultural sector, which in turn makes them particularly vulnerable to climate change. An estimated 90% of the population depends on rain-fed crop production and pastoralism to meet its basic food needs (Patt and Winkler, 2007). Rising temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns have direct effects on crop yields, as well as indirect effects through changes in irrigation water availability, thus exacerbating the impacts of droughts, soil degradation and decline in biodiversity. The combination of these effects makes agriculture the most vulnerable sector affected by climate change.

There is an emerging economic literature on weather variations and their implications for a wide set of economic outcomes ranging from economic growth, to migration and agriculture (Dell et al., 2013). Most of this literature is concerned with establishing linkages between these outcomes of interest and weather using data at aggregated levels including cross-country studies. These studies establish a negative relationship between economic growth/income and hot climates in general, and a positive one between income and rainfall in SSA (Miguel et al., 2004; Barrios et al., 2010; Hsiang, 2010; Brueckner and Ciccone, 2011; Dell et al., 2012).

In countries where agricultural sector is largely based on small-holders and dominates the economy, the main linkages between weather and incomes go through agriculture, and when the latter is based on rain-fed subsistence agriculture, this link also has substantial implications for food security and welfare. Since climate/weather fluctuations translate into income shocks especially faced by small-holders, not only are the average incomes low but also they are highly volatile. In addition to the important policy implications that can be derived from the investigation of these issues, we focus on weather-related risk for two reasons. First, the growing availability of high-quality geo-referenced data on weather makes this important and exogenous component of environmental risk measurable along with the related households' response. Second, although it is not the only exogenous factor affecting income and consumption of rural households, it is spatially covariant. As pointed out by Binswanger (1993), this feature makes it an important determinant of income variability that is most likely to influence welfare.

The goal of this study is, therefore, to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of weather risk on rural households' welfare in two countries in SSA. We use nationally representative household data together with a set of novel weather variation indicators based on interpolated gridded and re-analysis weather data that capture the peculiar features of short term and long term variations in rainfall and temperature. In particular, we estimate the impact of weather shocks on a rich set of welfare indicators (including total income, total expenditure, food expenditure and its share in total expenditure and calorie intake) and investigate whether and how they vary by different definitions of shocks. Moreover, we also analyze the interactions of these climate risk-welfare relationships with a number of policy relevant variables such as access to extension information, access to credit and the use of sustainable land management (SLM) practices, which may help farmers to cope with risk and smooth income (Morduch, 1995).

Our results show that both rainfall and maximum temperature variability (defined for the last 25, 10, 5 and 3 years) exert a negative impact on welfare, even if results vary according to the reference period with respect to which the indicators are computed. Our estimates also show a significant income-smoothing for households that have adopted SLM practices, highlighting the role of SLM as a potential ex-ante risk coping strategy. We also find that the most vulnerable rural households are much more negatively affected by a rainfall deficit compared to the households in the top income quantile. We compare and contrast the results from Tanzania and Uganda to draw site-specific and evidence-based policy implications to improve welfare outcomes under increasingly unpredictable weather conditions in these countries. 

Responding to the Scares Skills Needs in the Renewable Energy Domain in South Africa

L. Makhubela (Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa), Y. Hamam (Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa), A. M. Kurien (Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract details
Responding to the Scares Skills Needs in the Renewable Energy Domain in South Africa

L. Makhubela (1) ; Y. Hamam (2) ; AM. Kurien (3)
(1) Tshwane University of Technology, Post graduate studies research and innovation, Pretoria, South Africa; (2) Tshwane University of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering, Pretoria, South Africa; (3) Tshwane University of Technology, F'sati, Pretoria, South Africa

Abstract content

According to the South African department of Energy, almost 90% of South Africa's electricity is generated in coal-fired power stations. One nuclear station near Cape Town produces about 5 % of the total capacity. The remaining 5% is provided by hydroelectric and pumped storage schemes, the sites available for this power being limited. The Tshwane University of Technology (TUT) in Pretoria, South Africa is responding to these needs in collaboration with French and European Institutions.

 

This is done through institutions within the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment:

  • The French South-African Institute of Technology (F’SAT)
  • The Centre for Energy and Electric Power (CEEP)

These institutions collaborate within the graduate programme of the Department of Electrical Engineering to provide courses and research in the energy domain and specifically in the renewable energy specialisation.

 

F’SATI is a National asset contributing to the creation of knowledge and the transfer of technology in South Africa through the establishment of collaboration between various higher education and research institutes, as well as industry. F’SATI’s mission is to improve the quality and the quantity of the output at postgraduate level. This proposition is enhanced through the collaboration with other French partners. In the last four years F’SATI has highly increased its output at both postgraduate students and publication levels. The present stakeholders of this venture are the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the French Ministry of Education and Research, The Chamber of Commerce an Industry of the Parisian Region, the South African Department of Science and Industry and National Research Foundation.

 

The European partners of the CEEP include the Hogeschool Utrecht University of Applied Sciences, the University of Utrecht, the ECOFYS, the RWTH-Aachen University and the French ESIEE-Amiens.

 

The partners of the above programmes include companies such as ESKOM the main power company, Local Municipalities, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and other South African Universities.

 

The above programmes have contributed to the training and education at both the Masters and Doctorate levels. These programmes cover the following domains: smart networks, photovoltaic applications, wind energy production as well as hydropower. This collaborative effort has resulted in the training of postgraduate students as well as the production of many scientific publications in the domain of renewable energy.

 

The graduates of these programmes contribute to the development of renewable energy in South Africa. This adventure gives an example of a collaboration between European countries and an African country. It shows that such a venture may respond to scarce skills that are highly needed in Africa.

 

The authors will give more details of these activities in the full document and the oral presentation. 

Adaptation and response to climate change, an opportunity for local development in Central Africa: case study of Cameroon western highlands

D.J. Nkue Nouwezem (University of Dschang, Dschang, Cameroon)

Abstract details
Adaptation and response to climate change, an opportunity for local development in Central Africa: case study of Cameroon western highlands

DJ. Nkue Nouwezem (1)
(1) University of Dschang, Geography, Dschang, Cameroon

Abstract content

 

Climate change offers opportunities for African countries to emerge. It calls the attention to a sustainable development in a century where African countries aspire to development, emergence and economic stability. According to observations made in different localities on the continents, African local communities are trying to assess and mitigate the impact of climatic change with their own means. This will help them to address particular issues concerning them. Indeed, general measures proposed by stakeholders and policy makers based on them are not always the best to resolve problems arising. Besides,  some are living in remote or rural areas and hence not aware of these mitigation measures and policies adopted. In Cameroon and especially in its western part, to ensure their productivity, farmers have ameliorated their production capacities by developing and mastering new production and commercialization tools. When talking about production we refer to the understanding of the new climatic patterns, the improvement of tilling and irrigation systems. Concerning commercialization, models have changed. Furthermore we see buyers going directly to purchase goods from farms while some years ago it was the producers who were going toward the buyers. Moreover, things have improved at the national level. Contrary to what was done during the last ten years, the publication of meteorological data through national televisions programs and newspapers shows a great progress in the African sub region. This meteorological data have a great impact on the daily lives of populations in the area. Also, state institutions such as ministries of environment and their respective departments, which control industrial production models and sanction those who pollute the environment helps in encouraging sustainable development. This paper shows how local communities in central African countries in general and in the western highlands of Cameroon in particular have adapted to climate change,  showing how they respond to it in order to ensure their agricultural production in climatic variability circumstances and how this adaptation contributes to their development.  The data presented in this paper are the result of a qualitative research based on in situ observations, interviews and literature review. These data reflect globally what is happening in most of central African countries.

 

Risques Hydrométéorologiques dans les Villes Africaines RHYVA/PARRAF

A. Konaré (University Felix Houphouet Boigny, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

Abstract details
Risques Hydrométéorologiques dans les Villes Africaines RHYVA/PARRAF

A. Konaré (1)
(1) University Felix Houphouet Boigny, Laboratoire de physique de l'atmosphere et de mecanique des fluides, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Abstract content

RHYVA Network: Risques Hydro-météorologiques dans le Villes Africaines

 

A.    KONARE, D. DIEDHIOU, D. DELFIN, P. ASSAMOI

ABSTRACT

In synergy with the ECOWAS vision , the objective of RHYVA network is to develop a basic understanding of the risks in urban environments and to provide expertise to strengthen the resilience of African cities Capacities for hydrometeorological disasters.Specifically, RHYVA aims to:promote dialogue between the different actors that contribute to reducing the harmful effects of hydrometeorological disasters (scientists, emergency services and risk management, policy makers, NGOs, communities at risk) to share knowledge (results of the research, experience feedback, good governance practices, evaluation, coordination, communication and appropriate conduct).Make a plea and conduct training and awareness activities on reducing urban disaster risk to parliamentarians and local authorities, journalists and the target communities. ;to support research activities on risk Hydrometeorological in African cities and support the development and networking of national platforms in charge of disaster risk reduction at the subregional level

Ensemble Modeling using General Circulation Models from Global Producing Centres for Rainfall Forecasting over the Greater Horn of Africa

G. Otieno (university of nairobi, nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Ensemble Modeling using General Circulation Models from Global Producing Centres for Rainfall Forecasting over the Greater Horn of Africa

G. Otieno (1)
(1) university of nairobi, meteorolgy, nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

Climate extremes like flood and drought have threatened the social-economic sustainability over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Lack of accurate and reliable forecasts systems with correct time leads results to devastating impacts. Under the auspice of Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS), World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in effort to address the challenges due to climate extremes designated global producing centres Models (GPCs) to provide accurate and timely climate services and information.

This study evaluated the skill of forecasting seasonal rainfall over the GHA using the GPCs models. The datasets used included; monthly rainfall model hindcasts, Climate Research Unit (CRU) blended with observed rainfall stations between 1983-2001. The methods employed in the study included Spearman Rank correlation, Composite Analysis, Weighted averages, Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Scores(CRPSS) and Taylor Diagrams.

The skill of the ensemble model was higher than that of the individual models in capturing the rainfall peaks during the ENSO phenomena. Correlation analysis showed higher values for ensemble model output than for the individual models mostly over the Equatorial region. The skill of the models was relatively higher during the onset of the ENSO event and became low towards the decaying phase of ENSO period.

It is clear from the study that ensemble seasonal forecasting significantly adds skill to the forecasts over the region. Blending dynamical ensemble forecasts with statistical forecast currently being produced during Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) would add value to seasonal forecasts. This significantly reduces the impacts and damages associated with climate extremes over the region.

Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Rainfall Variability over West Africa at Intraseasonal Timescale

C. Niang (Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphere et de l'Ocean, Dakar, France)

Abstract details
Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Rainfall Variability over West Africa at Intraseasonal Timescale

C. Niang (1)
(1) Laboratoire de Physique de l'Atmosphere et de l'Ocean, Ecole Superieur Polytechnique (ESP), Dakar, France

Abstract content

Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on Rainfall Variability over West  Africa at Intraseasonal Timescale

 

Intraseasonal variability of rainfall over West Africa plays a significant role in the economy of the region and is highly linked to agriculture and water resources. This research study aims to investigate the relationship between Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and rainfall over West Africa during the boreal summer in the the state-of-the-art Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) type simulations performed by Atmosphere General Circulation Models (GCMs) forced with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST). It aims to determine the impact of MJO on rainfall and convection over West Africa and identify the dynamical processes which are involved. The simulations show in general good skills in capturing its main characteristics as well as its influence on rainfall over West Africa. On the global scale, most models simulated an eastward spatio-temporal propagation of enhanced and suppressed convection similar to the observed. However, over West Africa the MJO signal is weak in few of the models although there is a good coherence in the eastward propagation. In addition, the ensemble average of models give better performance in reproducing those features. The influence on rainfall is well captured in both Sahel and Guinea regions thereby adequately producing the transition between positive and negative rainfall anomalies through the different phases as seen in the observation. Few models overestimate the composite intensity in phases with strong MJO signal over the Sahel while the opposite is simulated over Guinea coast. Futhermore, the results show that strong active convective phase is clearly associated with the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) but the weak convective phase is associated with a much weaker AEJ particularly over coastal Ghana. In assessing the mechanisms which are involved in the above impacts the convectively equatorial coupled waves (CCEW) are analysed separately. The analysis of the longitudinal propagation of zonal wind at 850hPa and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) shows that the CCEW are very weak and their extention are very limited beyong West African region. It was found that the westward coupled equatorial Rossby waves are needed to bring out the MJO-convection link over the region and this relationship is well reproduced by all the models. However, Kelvin waves do not account for the overall impact of MJO signal on convection over West Africa. Results also confirmed that it may be possible to predict the anomalous convection over West Africa with a time lead of 15-20 day with regard to Indian Ocean and AMIP simulations performed well in this regard.

 

Complementing Local Indigenous Knowledge and Practices and scientific knowledge for better policy planning on climate change adaptation: the Case of Cameroon

E. Ngang (Information and Communication University (ICT-U), Yaounde, Centre, France)

Abstract details
Complementing Local Indigenous Knowledge and Practices and scientific knowledge for better policy planning on climate change adaptation: the Case of Cameroon

E. Ngang (1)
(1) Information and Communication University (ICT-U), Management, Yaounde, Centre, France

Abstract content

Climate change is a defining issue of our era, with its impacts reaching regional and global scales. The current magnitude and variability have critical implications for agriculture, fisheries, forestry, life histories, community compositions, and essential ecosystem functions. Warming, combined with the higher risk of extreme floods and droughts, shrinking water resources will lead to the rapidly lengthening list of potentially damaging impacts, from soaring food prices to famine and mass migration of species including humans and increase in conflicts over diminishing natural resources. Countries of the African continent are among the most vulnerable to climate variability and extremes, given that only 5% of their cultivated land is irrigated and food production is dependent mainly on rain-fed agriculture. How serious the repercussions will be, depends on how fast measures and strategies are adopted to facilitate coping with the extreme and inevitable conditions posed by climate change especially for grass root communities.  Unfortunately, some of these agriculture-dependent areas that are most vulnerable to negative effects of climate change are quite remote with improper coverage by scientific forecasting stations. The farmers in these areas have been modifying their farm practices to adapt to inevitable changes in climate.  Through on-farm management and post-harvest conservation practices, they have used their wealth of Local Indigenous Knowledge and Practices (LIKPs) in the food production chain to enhance their food security. It has been observed that although LIKPs have been recognised as a resource, they have however been given a tokenistic consideration through the addition of a small portion of traditional ecological knowledge in decision making processes related to climate change while business is still done as usual. These traditional practices and strategies that have been linked to changes in climate and long-term extreme weather conditions, transferred orally and through mutual and collective on-farm learning on-farm learning and practices, from one decade to another and from generation to generation, have been grossly neglected. This poster presentation shall highlight the conflict between traditional (indigenous) knowledge, which is contextual, localised and the western-scientific and bureaucratic (often top-down) method of management that finds it difficult to reconcile national planning with local action (bottom-up) within the framework of climate change adaptation. Focus shall be on Cameroon, one of main breadbaskets of the Central African Sub region. Over many decades, 70% of the 30 million inhabitants’ livelihood is hinged on agriculture and these communities have learned to use their LIKPs to cushion themselves inevitable climate risks.  Although acceptable levels of adaptation and resilience to climate change have not been defined across the board, this paper emphasises that reconciliations between LIKPs and ‘western’ science is essential for policy formulation and implementation processes. This places local communities as co-creators of knowledge and practices that cushions them against climate risks, ensuring ownership and sustainability of policies and implementattion strategies.  Some examples of successful local indigenous knowledge practices gathered through evidence-based research and engagement with local agriculture dependent communities in Cameroon shall be highlighted to contribute to steer reflections on the subject.

 

Floods and International River Basin Districts: Europe stands United?

C. Suykens (Institute for Environmental and Energy Law, Leuven, Belgium)

Abstract details
Floods and International River Basin Districts: Europe stands United?

C. Suykens (1)
(1) Institute for Environmental and Energy Law, Public Law, Leuven, Belgium

Abstract content

Floods and International River Basin Districts: Europe stands United?

 

Cathy Suykens, PhD Researcher involved in the STAR-FLOOD project, Institute for Environmental and Energy Law, KU Leuven

 

Problem definition

 

Through the introduction of the concept of International River Basin Districts (IRBDs), water law in Europe aims to focus on ecological boundaries as opposed to administrative boundaries. Considering the fact that approximately 60 % of EU water is transboundary, and there are transboundary waters in all Member States with the exception of Cyprus and Malta, solid cooperation and conflict prevention mechanisms throughout EU Member States are critical for ensuring quantitative water security. Indeed, actions upstream (in one country) impact the quality and quantity of water downstream (in the part of the river basin located in a neighbouring country) and vice versa. The floods in Central Europe in 2013 demonstrate the transboundary nature of the phenomena, as the floods emerged in one jurisdiction and proliferated in other jurisdictions. However, as will be demonstrated, solid mechanisms for cooperation are lacking in the European legal framework with regard to IRBDs.

 

Outline of the presentation

 

This contribution will review how the EU legal framework drives cooperation in IRBDs, in order to tackle the inherently transboundary issue of flooding. This will be done on the basis of the five pillars of transboundary water governance, as set forth by the Global Water Partnership, namely (i) scope, (ii) substantive rules, (iii) procedural rules, (iv) institutional mechanisms and (v) dispute resolution.

 

Through the framework of these pillars, the existing bottlenecks in the EU framework will be identified. On the basis of this analysis, ways forward will be set forth, amongst others drawing from a legal comparative analysis with transboundary river governance agreements in the United States. 

Climate change challenges for European Union in the New Millennium

S. K. Mishra (S. N. D. T. Women's University, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India)

Abstract details
Climate change challenges for European Union in the New Millennium

SK. Mishra (1)
(1) S. N. D. T. Women's University, Continuing and Adult Education and Extension Work, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

Abstract content

Strategies on climate change and development cooperation are both evolving rapidly within Europe. Improved scientific understanding about climate change and responses to it show the need for urgent action. This is the chasm between emission reductions pledged by countries and the actual reductions needed to stay within a safe global carbon budget. The aid landscape is also changing fast, after years of seeming stability. With the emergence of new donors (both sovereign states and private foundations) complexity is likely to increase through to 2020. As a result, the traditional multilateral and bilateral donors are likely to lose influence and power. But within the climate change framework there is still unfinished business for traditional donors, particularly in relation to the provision of finance and technology for developing countries. The European Union (EU) has stepped up to its historic responsibilities and climate change has become an increasingly important component of its development cooperation effort. But how will all this play out over the next decade and what can we learn from recent trends? This paper aims to seek answer to this question. Secondary data have been used in the paper and methodology of analysis is “descriptive research method”. Within the framework of this objective, it touches upon relevance from development cooperation for climate change.

Lessons learnt in preventing health effects of floods events in the European Region

S. Gerardo (WHO, Bonn, Germany), V. Kendrovski, (WHO, Bonn, Germany), B. Menne (WHO, Bonn, Germany)

Abstract details
Lessons learnt in preventing health effects of floods events in the European Region

S. Gerardo (1) ; V. Kendrovski, (1) ; B. Menne (2)
(1) WHO, Bonn, Germany; (2) WHO, health security and the environment, Bonn, Germany

Abstract content

The WHO Regional Office for Europe, within its division on health security, is actively in charge of advising its 53 Member States in predparedness and response of flood events, with a particular focus on health. Between 1990 and 2015, more then 1000 people died and several million were affected during flood events. In this presentation we will briefly outline the health effects, based on several systematic literature reviews and describe the practical lessons learnt during and after 2 major flood events: the 2002 Elbe floods and the 2014 Balcan floods. The presentation will highlight required preflood measures, during flood public health relevant initiatives as well as post flood management. Gaps in flood response will be highlighted in particular with a view of more frequent and intense flood events.

Unpacking the notion of “more resilient flood risk governance” – a framework with examples from flood risk governance in Europe

P. Driessen, (Copernicus Institute of Sutainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), R. M. Van (Utrecht Centre for Water, Oceans and Sustainability Law, Utrecht, Netherlands), D. Hegger (Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands), M. Bakker (Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands), Z. W. Kundzewicz (Polish Academy of Sciences, Pozna?, Poland), M. Wiering, (Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, Netherlands), T. Raadgever, (Grontmij, De Bilt, Netherlands), A. Crabbé (University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium)

Abstract details
Unpacking the notion of “more resilient flood risk governance” – a framework with examples from flood risk governance in Europe

P. Driessen, (1) ; RM. Van (2) ; D. Hegger (3) ; M. Bakker (4) ; ZW. Kundzewicz (5) ; M. Wiering, (6) ; T. Raadgever, (7) ; A. Crabbé (8)
(1) Copernicus Institute of Sutainable Development, Utrecht university, Utrecht, Netherlands; (2) Utrecht Centre for Water, Oceans and Sustainability Law, Utrecht, Netherlands; (3) Utrecht University, Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands; (4) Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; (5) Polish Academy of Sciences, Pozna?, Poland; (6) Radboud University Nijmegen, Nijmegen, Netherlands; (7) Grontmij, De Bilt, Netherlands; (8) University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium

Abstract content

European countries, especially urban areas, face increasing flood risks due to urbanisation and the effects of climate change. In literature and in practice, it is argued that a diversification of Flood Risk Management Strategies makes urban agglomerations more resilient to flood risks. The latter requires innovations in existing flood risk governance arrangements, development of new arrangements and the coordination of these arrangements. We argue that the notion that diversified FRM leads to more resilience to flood risks is a plausible proposition, but one that should be critically scrutinised through comparative empirical research. To do this, we first present a brief overview of the state of the art of literature on resilience of social-ecological systems and flood risk governance. Next, based on the literature review, we operationalise the notion of “more resilient flood risk governance” into five criteria: resistance, robustness, ability to absorb and recover, social learning, and ability to adapt. Third, we use examples from an ongoing research project on flood risk governance in Europe (the EU FP7 project STAR-FLOOD) to discuss to what extent a diversification of FRM strategies is actually taking place and how the dynamics found can be scored using our criteria. The findings reconfirm that one-size-fits-all solutions for achieving resilient flood risk governance do not exist. There are different ways in which flood risk governance arrangements can be made appropriate in different social and physical contexts. We nevertheless will derive some common understandings and main lessons from this comparative research about flood risk governance in practice. 

Probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling supports better decisions in flood risk management

H. Kreibich (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany), K. Schröter, (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling supports better decisions in flood risk management

H. Kreibich (1) ; K. Schröter, (1)
(1) German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are increasingly based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with considerable uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention recently, they are hardly applied in flood damage assessments. Most of the damage models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions.

This presentation will show approaches for probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling on the micro- and meso-scale, i.e. for individual objects and for aggregated land use units; and will discuss their potential and limitations.

For instance, we compared the predictive capability of six flood damage models (four deterministic and two probabilistic models) in a spatial transfer context using empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005 and 2006 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. For validation a split sample approach was followed. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Since it is crucial to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved in order to enable informed decisions, probabilistic models are advantageous since they quantify prediction uncertainty. This additional information about the reliability of model predictions improves the usefulness of model results and even more so in spatial transfer applications.

Climate change adaptation : towards a legal change ?

T. Thuillier (Université François Rabelais, Tours, France)

Abstract details
Climate change adaptation : towards a legal change ?

T. Thuillier (1)
(1) Université François Rabelais, UFR Droit, Economie et Sciences Sociales, Tours, France

Abstract content

The world is facing climate change, which impacts on the international community at large. Such a problem requires a global response followed by local actions to deal with this new challenge. This response is characterized by the crossing of mitigation measures, in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and adaptation measures for reducing the risk and damage from current (ex post aspect) and future (ex ante aspect) harmful impacts. Among the different effects compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we could note for instance rising sea level or more frequent flash floods and marine submersion. Statistical studies have shown that natural disasters will be increasingly important in the next few years. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to draw up adaptation and risk reduction measures and all the instruments of public policy, such as normative instrument / law, have to be mobilized.

These last years, France has established a real adaptation to climate change policy through the development of the National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) provided for in the Grenelle Act of 2009. Indeed, this plan is consistent with the European strategy of adaptation to climate change adopted in 2013 by the European Commission, which invites every Member State to adopt comprehensive adaptation strategies.

When analysing on a legal point of view these different plans or strategies adopted at national or European level, one may see there weak normative force. Even if the Grenelle Act of 2009 makes provision in Article 42 for “the preparation of a National Adaptation Plan for a variety of areas of activity by 2011”, one may say that it has no legal value. Indeed, the plan has not been adopted by the French Parliament or the Government through a regulatory act. Only a consultation was carried out in 2010 bringing together panels from the Grenelle Environment Forum (elected representatives and local authorities, the state, employers, employee unions and non-profit associations). At the European level, the Strategy of adaptation to climate change has been drawn up through a communication of the European Commission. These two plans can be both described as soft law instruments used to improve stakeholders support (Dreyfus & Patt, 2011).

Even if such an intention can be laudable, it must be remembered that States are responsible for human security. This responsibility belongs to the political and legal domains. From an intern and European legal point of view, there is no explicit obligation stating that a State has to protect its population against the consequences of climate change impacts. Yet, the French disaster law is composed of the protection principle, which enjoins the State and local authorities to protect effectively their population when a natural disaster happens (Cans at al., 2014). At the European level, the European Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms (ECHR) protects the right to life and imposes positive obligations on Member States to guarantee this fundamental right (Gouritin, 2009).

In order to avoid any action for damages against public authorities and to constrain actors to prepare effectively to climate change consequences, the implementation of a real arsenal of hard law provisions is necessary.

But how can we incorporate this variable “climate change“, characterized by its uncertainty and its permanent evolution in progress, into normative instrument which are traditionally looking for a certain degree of legal certainty?

The purpose of this communication is to analyse some French legislative instruments directly or indirectly used in the field of flood risk management (flood risk prevention plan (PPRI), flood risk management plan [PGRI], local urban planning scheme [PLU], territorial consistency plan [SCoT]) from a climate change perspective. The main issue for this topic is to what extent these different instruments can be a vehicle for adaptation to climate change. On conclusion to this study, concrete propositions will be made in order to better integrate data linked to climate change into these legal instruments.

From weather to climate: responding to climate risk across timescales

J. Slingo (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom)

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From weather to climate: responding to climate risk across timescales

J. Slingo (1)
(1) Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

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Weather and climate risks occur on a range of timescales, from severe weather to extreme seasons to centennial changes, all of which require a response. Over the coming century we will need to mitigate and adapt to these risks, taking into account additional challenges posed by rising population levels, increasing urbanisation and associated increases in demand for water, food and energy.

Forecasts and early warnings are both critical contributors to climate change adaptation across a range of timescales: at decadal timescales, they enable introduction of adaptation policies and planning of major infrastructure changes on appropriate timescales; at monthly to annual timescales, they enable planning of public and business preparedness; at hours to weeks timescales, they enable emergency managers and individuals to protect communities and themselves through defence and evacuation measures.

Recent advances in weather and climate forecasting capability by advanced weather and climate services have shown remarkable skill in providing valuable advice at each of these timescales. They have also demonstrated substantial benefits of working in a seamless manner across these different timescales. Investment in building the capacity of less developed National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to make use of these new advances is a highly cost-effective way of reducing the impact of climate change across timescales.

Modeling of the vulnerability of "biomass energy" sub-sector to climate change in Togo

K. Kouami (Faculty of Sciences, Togo, Togo)

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Modeling of the vulnerability of "biomass energy" sub-sector to climate change in Togo

K. Kouami (1)
(1) Faculty of Sciences, Botany, Togo, Togo

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Biomass energy accounts for 80 % of total energy consumed in Togo. But its potential decreases exponentially as a result of population growth and the fact that the techniques of production and consumption are still archaic and climate change. The aim of this work is to contribute to the assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the sub-sector of biomass energy in Togo by a modeling approach. Specifically, it is i) to study the evolution of the household demand for fuelwood and ii ) to analyze the vulnerability to climate change of sub-sector of biomass energy (mainly charcoal and firewood) in Togo. Demand scenarios of fuelwood were developed from the LEAP model. The vulnerability analysis is made by coupling the demands and the potential of fuelwood and by taking into account the parameters of climate change. At the end of this study, it appears that the fuelwood demands evolve exponentially and that the sector is vulnerable to future climate change. In addition, the potential of fuelwood is very deficient compared to the demand for years to come and will be exhausted before the year 2025. The current energy and forestry policies are far from fill this gap.

What will be the impacts ? Sectoral applications

R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France)

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What will be the impacts ? Sectoral applications

R. Vautard (1)
(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

Abstract content

The abstract of the Robert Vautard presentation will be submitted in few days

Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts and Climate Change Adaptation Among Smallholder Farmers in South West Region of Nigeria

A. Onwuemele (Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

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Seasonal Rainfall Forecasts and Climate Change Adaptation Among Smallholder Farmers in South West Region of Nigeria

A. Onwuemele (1)
(1) Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Social and Governance Policy Research, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

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Climate change is undoubtedly one of the most serious environmental threats facing mankind worldwide.  It affects almost all sectors in agriculture (crop, livestock, pastoralism, fishery, etc) due to the high reliance on weather and climatic elements in agricultural practices. In the south west Nigeria, crop production is the dominant agricultural enterprise among smallholder farmers and is the primary means of their food security. This enterprise is currently faced with the challenges of changing climatic conditions. The smallholder farmers in south west Nigeria are highly vulnerable to climate change due to their general weak capacity to adaptation and this vulnerability is worsened by their heavy practice of rain fed agriculture. Recent evidence from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency [NIMET] (2008), indicates that the climate of the south west region of Nigeria is already changing based on the assessment of the climate over the period 1941 to 2000. This is manifested in changes in seasonal rainfall patterns and more unpredictable, severe and frequent extreme events like floods and droughts threatening livelihoods among smallholder farmers in the region. This scenario is having significant impacts on crop yields and product quality as a result of changes in temperatures, moisture, air and soil. To a large extent, the smallholder’s farmers in the region have continuously been adapting to varying weather and climatic conditions; however, the increasingly erratic climate variability and the rapid pace of other drivers of change are overwhelming their capacity to adapt. Consequently, the need to explore new methodologies to endure the climate uncertainty and variability in the region have become more critical more than ever before among smallholder farmers. The use of seasonal rainfall forecasts may be an important adaptation to a more dynamic climate as it can provide valuable insight into future weather and climate variability. While seasonal rainfall forecasts can serve as a potential tool for adaptively managing agricultural systems in response to climate change, it is not clear whether smallholder farmers in south west Nigeria are receptive to innovations such as the use of seasonal rainfall forecasts in planning for adaptation activities. This paper evaluates the applicability of seasonal rainfall forecast in climate change adaptation as well as the determinants and constraints to application of seasonal rainfall, forecast in climate change adaptation among smallholder farmers in South West Nigeria. Simple purposive sampling was used to select Oyo State out of six states in the south west Nigeria while agricultural communities that are prone to climate change in the state were also  purposively selected. Primary data were obtained from 425 farmers using questionnaires while two Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were conducted for men and women smallholder farmers in the communities. The data obtained were organized in Microsoft Excel, cleaned and analyzed on the Statistical Package of the Social Sciences (SPSS) using descriptive and inferential statistics while the FGD were content analyzed. Results indicate poor understanding and little or no application of seasonal rainfall forecast in planning for adaptation in the study area. Results further shows that only 12.7 per cent of respondents had access and utilize seasonal rainfall forecast in planning adaptation activities. It further identified the main constraints to the non application of seasonal rainfall forecast to include poor access to seasonal rainfall forecast, lack of information on its content as reported by 49.8 per cent of the respondents. Finally, results show a high positive correlation between usage of seasonal rainfall forecast and educational attainments, income, ownership of ICT facilities as well as membership of local community groupings. The paper calls for greater enlightenment programmes and the integration of local medium in the communication of seasonal rainfall forecast in the region for effective access and utilization of seasonal rainfall forecast by small holder farmers in the region

Time course of weather variables in malaria-related mortality in Sub Saharan Africa rural population

E. Diboulo, (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland)

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Time course of weather variables in malaria-related mortality in Sub Saharan Africa rural population

E. Diboulo, (1)
(1) Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Basel, Switzerland

Abstract content

OUR COMMON FUTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE 

International Scientific Conference

July 7-10,, 2014, UNESCO building, Paris, France

 

Parallel Session: Climate change and health: adaptation 

 

Time course of weather variables in malaria-related mortality in Sub Saharan Africa rural population 

Diboulo Eric, Sié, A1, Joacim Rocklöv2, Sauerborn, Rainer3

1 Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Burkina Faso

2 Umea Centre for Global Health Research, Umea, Sweden

3 Public Health Institute, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany

 

The current and potential future impacts of climate change on human heath have attracted increasing attention in the recent years and it is expected to significantly affect the spatial distribution as well as intensity of infectious diseases. Changes in climate are likely to lengthen the transmission seasons of important diseases and to alter their geographic range, potentially bringing them to region which lack either population immunity or strong public health infrastructures as it is the case in most of SSA. 

The relationship between human health and weather conditions has been extensively studied although mostly focused on urban settings. Therefore little is known about the effects and associations between human health and weather conditions in rural populations of SSA hitherto. Studies on these associations are rather limited and scarce due to scarcity of good quality data.  

Malaria features among the infectious diseases whose impacts are expected to exacerbate under future climate change scenarios in SSA.  However, despite an apparent ostensibly simple association between particular weather conditions and increased abundance of mosquitoes, there still remains a lack of information on the relative importance of the different weather variable in the occurrence of the disease Indeed both the mosquito development and survival as well as incubation period before an infected human develops symptoms of malaria strongly depend on prevailing climatic conditions. Furthermore there is always a lag time between climate suitability and change in mosquito’s population and both the temperature-dependant sporogony within the mosquito and the incubation period in human add an additional complexity and uncertain lag time. 

The lagged effects of weather on daily deaths are believed to dissipate with distant lags. However choices of the different lag structure in earlier studies have been usually motivated by model adjustment parameters that reduce serial correlation and confounding. 

 

In this study, we set out to model flexibly lagged effects using fifteen years of weather variables namely temperature and rainfall on malaria related daily mortality counts using distributed lag non linear models. 

Distributed lag models (DLMs) allow for a flexible estimation of the time course of the effect size of weather variable over time on the outcome. 

 

The results show a harvesting effect of high temperatures on malaria-related mortality with an increased relative with the rising temperatures; while mortality show a steady and linear increase with high rainfall.   

 

Key words: climate change, Sub Saharan Africa, rural population, malaria, distributed lag models, incubation period.  

Pacific Community Development Through Biofuel from Marine Biomass

S. Hemstock (Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Suva, Fiji), A. De Ramon N'yeurt (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji)

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Pacific Community Development Through Biofuel from Marine Biomass

S. Hemstock (1) ; A. De Ramon N'yeurt (2)
(1) Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Economic development division, Suva, Fiji; (2) The University of the South Pacific, Pacific Center for Environment and Sustainable Development, Suva, Fiji

Abstract content

This pilot project based in Fiji with ramifications in Tuvalu and Vanuatu explores the possibilities of developing for Pacific island communities a low-cost, sustainable new source of renewable energy (biogas, or biomethane) from pest marine biomass (invasive algal blooms and coral-destroying crown of thorn starfish) to develop the economy of local communities, create employment, reduce food and fossil fuel imports, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, clean up excess nutrients from sewage treatment plant discharges, and clean up beaches fouled by overabundant and invasive seaweeds. The process provides multiple products simultaneously: energy from biogas, a low-cost alternative to chemical fertilizers, plus the recyclable nutrients remaining after anaerobic digestion. The development of low-cost, efficient anaerobic digesters will empower local communities to produce their own renewable energy source while protecting the environment and improving food security. Currently research is underway at the University of the South Pacific in Fiji with two Master-level students working on the topics of biomethane from seaweeds and crown-of-thorn starfish, respectively. Pilot community-level trials on the conversion of brown seaweeds into biofuel are underway in Tuvalu.

Building fuel poverty measurement for the transport sector

A. Berry (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Paris, France), C. Guivarch (CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France), Y. Jouffe (Laboratoire Ville Mobilité Transport, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, Paris, France), N. Coulombel (Laboratoire Ville Mobilité Transport, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Building fuel poverty measurement for the transport sector

A. Berry (1) ; C. Guivarch () ; Y. Jouffe (2) ; N. Coulombel (2)
(1) Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Paris, France; (2) Laboratoire Ville Mobilité Transport, Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, Paris, France

Abstract content

Because of climate change mitigation policies or depleting fossil fuels, fuel prices are expected to rise and an increasing number of households could face difficulties to afford their energy bills, adequately warm their home and achieve their required mobility. If development of fuel poverty measures are necessary to accompany fuel prices rises, their success highly depends on the capacity to identify the population at-risk. Attention has been focused on fuel poverty in the residential sector so far; however traveling by car is another essential energy service for part of the population (Sovacool, 2012). Having too high a fuel spending can induce restriction behaviours and it is particularly problematic when it becomes a barrier to access employment and when it causes social and economic exclusion (Orfeuil, 2004). If an increase in fuel prices will affect more strongly households with the highest motorized mobility needs, here we show that assessing who are those households is not straightforward, and that it calls for the development of a new multidimensional fuel poverty indicator.

 

Assessing who the households at-risk are is not a simple task for three reasons. First, motorized mobility needs result from multiple factors depending on the geographic, technical and socioeconomic characteristics of households. For example, living in suburban areas requires traveling longer distances to reach central business districts, or driving an old heavy car requires more energy per kilometre than a brand-new compact car. As a result, the fuel spending can vary a lot among the population. Second not only the fuel spending of a household results from a combination of factors, but these factors are often constrained in the short term, such as the residential location, the efficiency of the vehicle owned or access to public transport. As a result, households do not have the same possibilities to act on their daily lives consumption and they might be forced to restriction behaviour. Third, alternatives to car exist. Public transport, walking and cycling are sustainable substitutes to car use, but these alternatives are not equally accessible to households. Those three reasons highlight the fact that households are unequally affected by increasing fuel prices, and it raises public concerns about their impact on the most vulnerable populations.

 

The choice of fuel poverty indicators is essential because indicators are the basis on which to quantify the extent of the problem, to identify the affected population and to monitor progress of measures (Moore, 2012). To diagnose fuel poverty in the transport sector, the first idea would be to transpose existing indicators used in the domestic sector to the transport sector. The ratio indicator considers a household is fuel poor if its energy spending exceeds a certain share of its disposable income (Boardman, 1991). A more recent measurement approach, introduced by Hills in the UK, consists in identifying households having both high fuel spending and low income (Hills, 2012). However we find these approaches are not satisfactory because they fail to consider the three aspects described above: (1) diverse motorized mobility needs, (2) restriction behaviours, (3) variable capacities to adapt. We develop a new composite indicator that does not solely focus on budgetary aspects but also reflects conditions of mobility. Our composite indicator differentiates three levels of exposition to rising fuel prices. We test this indicator on French data and we find 4,0% of French households are identified at-risks, another 8,3% are vulnerable in their required mobility and another 6,8% are dependents to car. Using a discriminant analysis, we characterize the three identified groups and we find they show different geographic, technical and socioeconomic characteristics. Our results demonstrate using a multi-dimensional fuel poverty indicator is essential to evaluate fuel poverty in the transport sector. High fuel spending, low income but also inadequate conditions of mobility can induce difficulties to achieve one’s required mobility, and a comprehensive evaluation of fuel poverty requires an assessment of each dimension. By doing so, the composite indicator brings a new light on which support measures could be developed to insure future climate change mitigation policies are fair and equitable.

Local energy and the emergence of the pro-saver

C. Nolden (University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom), M. Mari (Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand, Brighton, United Kingdom), N. Fox (University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom)

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Local energy and the emergence of the pro-saver

C. Nolden (1) ; M. Mari (2) ; N. Fox (3)
(1) University of Sussex, Centre on innovation and energy demand, sussex energy group, spru, Brighton, United Kingdom; (2) Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand, Sussex energy group, spru, Brighton, United Kingdom; (3) University of Sussex, Sussex energy group, spru, Brighton, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The publication of the Community Energy Strategy in 2014 indicates increasing recognition of community energy within the UK. Using localised and tacit knowledge, local energy provision allows energy needs to be dealt with at the point of consumption, opening up opportunities for end-users and interest groups to engage in energy production and active consumption, ‘pro-sumption’, but also the potential to extend this to production and energy saving, ‘pro-saving’. Local energy initiatives can combine distributed energy generation, alongside demand reduction and demand side response. The importance of localised energy governance in the UK is highlighted in the Government’s recent D3 report. It specifically refers to distributed energy, demand reduction and demand side response at a local level, but also takes into account the role that local government can play in their development. A further landmark enabling more distributed approaches is the Government’s Feed-in Tariffs (FiTs), available for renewable energy generation technologies below 5MW. Technological diffusion, combined with an emergence of energy related social innovation and increasing political recognition, is establishing local energy as an alternative to the incumbent energy system. Local energy provides a space for engagement with energy production and consumption at the grassroots level, as well as for local authorities to play a more proactive role in influencing the scale and rapidity of D3 deployment. Often emerging out of community-led renewable energy projects, the initiatives can address issues such as energy prices, fuel poverty and the desire of independence from existing energy utilities. 

Based on three case studies, this paper traces the emergence of ‘pro-suming’ and ‘pro-saving’ in a UK context. The first case study, South East London Community Energy (SELCE) examines a community energy group that wishes to generate renewable energy “by the community, for the community”, for example by installing solar PV panels on public owned buildings such as schools. Their business model is based on income derived from the FiTs and selling electricity at a reduced price. The community group’s second original focus, fuel poverty alleviation, however, had to be initially scaled back due to the difficulty of establishing a viable business model based on FiT income. In the second case study Hyde Farm Climate Action Network set out to find solutions for cold and draughty houses in their neighbourhood, which were restricted by conservation area regulations while people in the area had limited funds to do expensive energy efficiency measures. The community group received support from programmes such as ECHO Action and British Gas Green Streets, which allowed them to install renewable energy installations to some of the houses. However, they proceeded to set up their own ‘Draught Busting Saturdays’ as a way to deal with inefficient houses, address climate change and build community coherence. The Draught Busting Saturday concept proved a popular and an affordable way to improve the energy efficiency, as well as help those who were on low incomes. The third case study provides an example of local authority engagement with fuel poverty alleviation in Southern England. In the summer of 2014, over 150 households were provided with free electricity from solar PV systems installed by their social housing provider, the local authority. The authority paid for the costs of the panels that will eventually be recouped via the FiTs. Any additional revenue generated will be used for energy efficiency work on its social housing stock. The study found that as the households engaged with free energy generation, it also encouraged demand reduction and demand-side responses.

The SELCE case study is an example of ‘pro-sumption’ as electricity is being used on the site of generation. Their approach provides insights into the difficulty of negotiating what may appear to be a straightforward process in light of continuous scepticism towards decentralised energy. The Hyde Farm case exhibits more ‘pro-saving’ behaviour emerging out of a grassroots community approach and disillusionment with established energy providers. The Southern England case provides a good example of renewable energy production, consumption and saving - ‘pro-saving’ - emerging out of a local authority initiative. In our discussion we explore how greater engagement with distributed energy, demand reduction and demand side response may be fostered through a more facilitatory framework combining technological and social innovation at the local energy scale.

Community energy generation in the UK: the link between ownership of renewable energy developments and social acceptance

F. Chen (The University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom)

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Community energy generation in the UK: the link between ownership of renewable energy developments and social acceptance

F. Chen (1)
(1) The University of Manchester, Tyndall Centre, Manchester, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Over the last decade, the UK government has increasingly discussed ‘community energy’ as a potential option to contribute towards meeting its renewable energy targets. One of the implied, and at times expressly stated, benefits of a community approach is an assumed related reduction in ‘public opposition’ to new renewable energy developments, which has been seen as slowing the rate of deployment and therefore threatening the realisation of related targets.

The link between ownership and social acceptance is an important research question, which has thus far lacked empirical evidence. The aim of this study is to bridge this gap by investigating three wind farm projects with three different types of ownership: fully community-owned, joint venture and fully private-owned with community benefits. The research will employ a wide range of secondary sources and in-depth interviews with key stakeholders of the wind farm projects and the local community residents.

The presentation will elucidate the impact of each ownership model on social acceptance, which will be considered in the context of other issues known to affect social acceptance e.g. the process of consultation with the community, communications and trust between developers and communities, sense of place from the community, contested impacts, processes of monitoring and perceived level of local benefits. The findings of the study will lead to recommendations for various stakeholder groups including local communities, developers and policy makers.

Sustainable energy transformations through innovation-system building

R. Byrne (University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom)

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Sustainable energy transformations through innovation-system building

R. Byrne (1)
(1) University of Sussex, Science Policy Research Unit, Brighton, United Kingdom

Abstract content

National systems of innovation (NSIs) provide the contexts within which all processes of technology development, transfer and uptake occur. NSIs are characterised by networks of actors (e.g. firms, universities, research institutes, government departments, NGOs, users), the strength and nature of the links between those actors, their capabilities, and the institutional environments within which they work. Particular technologies, and other innovations, emerge from particular combinations of these elements and their evolution. For example, recent research shows that the rapid adoption of solar lanterns in Kenya can be explained as the result of an emerging solar innovation system that includes an evolving supply chain built over decades, detailed research of users’ lighting practices, local – often donor-funded – experimentation with technologies and other innovations (such as finance models), and efforts to establish favourable policies. This Kenyan solar example also suggests that NSIs (including technology or sector-specific innovation systems) can be nurtured to evolve in particular directions, and so understanding how the Kenyan solar and other such cases have developed gives rise to potentially powerful exemplars for how policy interventions can encourage sustainable energy for all.

Taking this NSI perspective, the purpose of this presentation is to outline how international policy interventions such as SE4All, or the UNFCCC’s Technology Mechanism, could be enhanced to successfully encourage sustainable energy transformations in developing countries. The presentation will draw on two main strands of academic literature – innovation studies and socio-technical transitions – to explain the theoretical basis for why innovation systems are so important, and what these literatures tell us about how to nurture NSI-building. Examples from the recent research on the Kenyan case noted above, and from others, will be used to illustrate these insights: i.e. how to build actor-networks, capabilities and conducive institutional environments that together can evolve into context-responsive innovation systems. In short, these literatures suggest that policy interventions should focus on achieving four overarching goals:

1. Build networks of diverse stakeholders who work together in projects, programmes and other interventions

2. Foster and share learning from research and experience

3. Promote the development of shared visions amongst stakeholders

4. Support diverse experimentation with technologies and practices

The presentation will finish with a sketch of what architecture could be established to realise these ideas in developing countries. In this regard, two – potentially complementary – proposals will be outlined. One proposal is to strengthen the capacity of national-level institutions – such as National Designated Entities under the Climate Technology Centre and Network – to act as innovation-system builders. The other proposal is to use technology projects and programmes explicitly to build sustainable energy innovation systems.

"ENERGY HAVENS": TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC FUTURE. A study based on the example of Iceland

J. Zalpyte (Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, Leipzig, Germany)

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"ENERGY HAVENS": TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC FUTURE. A study based on the example of Iceland

J. Zalpyte (1)
(1) Eberswalde University for Sustainable Development, Faculty of Forestry and Environment, Leipzig, Germany

Abstract content

There are many concerns on how to enhance environmental policies through participating in the international market with opened borders. For many years already a strong cooperation with countries with lower environmental regulations developed between the United States of America and some Western European countries. This development has brought forward a raise of standards in environmental policies across the world but a big gap still prevails in the regulations between developed and developing countries. Some environmental economists claim that trade flows across countries with different environmental regulations may create the “pollution haven” effect and a “race to the bottom” in environmental standards. Globalization and international cross-border cooperation also play a vital role for international tax regimes. Different fiscal policies in one country influence the economic situation in others, even countries located far away. Companies and individual persons use the possibility of increased capital mobility and choose locations where the tax burden is lower. These locations are called “tax havens”. Similar to “pollution havens”, “tax havens” can create a “race to the bottom” in the collective tax base. The similarity of this terminology raises the question what makes a country a haven. Since the globalised market is being challenged by an increasing demand for energy and the energy supply is becoming one of the main cost factors in the production process for many industries, the research analysed a new definition of the term “energy havens. The term “energy havens” describes countries which have a big potential of renewable energy creation that can be provided to “power-hungry” consumers/energy-intensive enterprises. This is the aspect which differentiates them from the previously mentioned “pollution havens” because the use of traditional energy sources to offer industries a cheap energy supply would result in the “pollution haven” effect. The exploitation of renewable energy sources has to be feasible and ecologically desirable in order not to cause harm to nature and "pollute" the environment. The main target groups of this thesis are energy-intensive industries and the academic audience whose interest is the future energy market condition. The research conducted focuses on electricity, with production cost as the main factor.

Climate Change in the Era of Global Urbanization

A. Gottlieb (Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel)

Abstract details
Climate Change in the Era of Global Urbanization

A. Gottlieb (1)
(1) Tel Aviv University, Department of Sociology, Tel Aviv, Israel

Abstract content

This is the century of not one but two inherently interrelated revolutions. The first involves a radical change in the very foundation of economic growth since the industrial revolution: the growing consumption of fossil energy resources. The transition to the post-carbon era is dictated by the need to prevent the depletion of non-renewable fossil energy resources, to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and to abate the risks of climate change.

The second revolution, the ongoing global urbanization process, will significantly change where energy resources are consumed. By mid-century over 75% of the world population, close to six billion people, will live in cities. Already today, the world’s cities are responsible for over 50% of global GDP, but also for about 70% of global energy consumption, and correspondingly for the emission of approximately 70% of the world’s GHGs. Continuing along this path of fossil energy-based economic growth is clearly unsustainable. For better or for worse, the technological, economic and environmental transformation dictated by a zero-emissions economy will happen primarily in cities.

Reviews of the scientific literature, studies of municipal websites and surveys of municipal climate change administrators present an encouraging picture of how cities around the world respond to these multifaceted challenges. Hundreds of cities around the world have developed and are implementing local climate action plans, some already evincing considerable success in mitigating their GHG emissions and in increasing their resilience to climate change-related risks.

Yet, the evidence for the proliferation of local climate action plans and their success pertain mostly to high-income cities. There is virtually no knowledge base to guide and assess the climate actions of the expanding mega-cities in Asia, Latin America and Africa, and certainly not enough expertise to handle climate policy in the many other rapidly growing urban concentrations around the world that often count millions of residents.

My own recent research, which compares climate governance in 25 cities based on a theoretical model of the parameters of effective climate governance, may be of some help even though it also samples mostly high-income cities. We find that: (1) cities that employ the ICLEI ‘Five Milestones’ model as a guide for their climate action plans usually succeed in reducing GHG emissions and in increasing their resilience to climate change-related risks; (2) even successful cities often neglect to involve all stakeholders such as civil society and the local business community; (3) even more often, cities fail to pay attention to climate justice––the equitable allocation of environmental and socioeconomic ‘goods and bads’ of climate change and of climate policies.

Whether standard, rational policy-based approaches to climate change governance are pertinent to the rapidly growing mega-cities in low- or middle-income countries remains to be seen. This question––how low- or middle-income cities are facing and can face the multiple pressures of migration and climate change-related risks––is the focus of the most recent research project of the interdisciplinary global scientific Cities and Climate Change Network http://citiesandclimate.org which I chair.

Preliminary findings confirm our misgivings about the ‘Five Milestones’ model as a basis for local climate action plans in low-income cities. They also chart the limits of our theoretical model of effective climate governance. Cities exposed to both the risks of climate change and uncontrollable migration and its many socio-economic correlates such as poverty have unique needs and priorities. They often lack the economic, technological and social capacities to implement or even to establish appropriate climate action plans, and these capacities vary widely between the cities themselves. Less predictable aspects such as political instability are another factor absent in high-income cities that appears quite often to threaten the long-term viability of urban climate action plans.

Whether these cities will be able to change the nature of the urban project from a high-carbon to a zero-carbon path of development will chart the trajectory of human progress, now and perhaps for centuries.

The Role of ‘Smart Cities' in Mitigating Climate Change: Targeting and Changing Individual Behaviours

B. Granier (Lyons Institute of East Asian Studies, Lyon, France), S. Nemoz (Observatoire de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, GUYANCOURT, France)

Abstract details
The Role of ‘Smart Cities' in Mitigating Climate Change: Targeting and Changing Individual Behaviours

B. Granier (1) ; S. Nemoz (2)
(1) Lyons Institute of East Asian Studies, Lyon, France; (2) Observatoire de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, International Centre for Research in Ecological Economics, Eco-innovation, GUYANCOURT, France

Abstract content

Together with the rise of “smartness”, “smart cities” have rapidly increased in discourses as well as in the number of experimental sites in recent years. Beyond flagships like Songdo and Masdar, there are dozens of projects, mainly located in Europe, Asia and North America, which deserve careful analysis. Especially, “smart cities” are supposed to achieve numerous objectives, such as sustaining economic growth and increasing quality of life, but also resolving environmental problems and achieving sustainable development. More precisely, besides energy efficiency and infrastructure improvement, some experts underline that a “smart city” can support sustainable behaviours among citizens through changes in their daily activities.

Furthermore, research has highlighted an impetus for experiments at the city level, especially related to energy, aiming at transforming socio-technical systems in order to mitigate climate change (Bulkeley & Castan Broto, 2013). Most initiatives, whether or not self-proclaimed “smart cities”, intend to tackle the environmental challenge in introducing smart infrastructure, especially smart grids, and smart energy technologies, that are supposed to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. More specifically, smart grids do not only promote the use of renewable energy sources and help to optimize energy management: they also allow for decentralized ways of production and invite end-users to change their relation to energy. Subsequently, users are increasingly called upon to take part into energy management, and to become “prosumers” instead of mere consumers (Honebein et al., 2011). However, despite this overall optimism, research in social science has been raising doubts about this corporate-led and state-supported narrative. Indeed, drawing on social practice theories, scholars have pointed out that focusing on technological progress and energy efficiency improvement very often do not reach the expected targets in terms of energy savings. These concerns especially apply to smart energy technologies, and call for caution and further research about the conditions under which smart grids and their associated technologies are likely to actually favour sustainable socio-technical transitions (Strengers, 2013).

The issue will firstly be deepened through the analysis of representations and values which underlie the involvement of local governments in “smart cities”. After identifying what is promoted by the institutional framings on an international scale and how changes are targeted in individual behaviours, we will take Japanese “Smart Communities” as case studies. In 2010, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) launched the “Next-generation energy and social systems” program, and selected four “Smart Communities”, namely Toyota Smart Merit, Yokohama Smart City, Kitakyushu Smart Community and Kyoto Science City. Besides the technology introduction requirements (smart grids, micro-generation units, individual and collective storage batteries, etc.), criteria such as “lifestyle innovation” and “participation of householders”, in particular through dynamic response or demand response, were also emphasised by METI. We propose to analyse the measures and devices put in place in order to reduce householders’ energy consumption and related greenhouse gases emissions. We identify the conception of human behaviour on which these measures and devices rely, and the bodies of knowledge they subsequently rely on. Finally, our objective is to highlight to what extent Smart Communities’ strategies actually reconfigure practices and pave the way for significant lifestyle innovation, as need in order to contribute to climate change mitigation.

 

References

Bulkeley, Harriet & Castan Broto, Vanessa, 2013, “Government by experiment? Global cities and the governing of climate change”, Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 38, 361–375.

Honebein P. C., Cammarano R. F., Boice C., 2011, Building a social roadmap for the smart grid, Electricity Journal, 24, 78–85.

Strengers Y., 2013, Smart Energy Technologies in Everyday Life. Smart Utopia?, Palgrave Macmillan.

Energy modeling and its applications to sustainable energy transitions in African cities

L. Tait (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), B. Mccall, (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), A. Stone, (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), J. Namukisa, (Uganda Martyrs University, Kampala, Uganda), S. Bawakyillenuo, (University of Ghana, Accra, Ghana), D. Mann, (Uganda Martyrs University, Kampala, Uganda), J. Silver, (Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Energy modeling and its applications to sustainable energy transitions in African cities

L. Tait (1) ; B. Mccall, (1) ; A. Stone, (1) ; J. Namukisa, (2) ; S. Bawakyillenuo, (3) ; D. Mann, (2) ; J. Silver, (4)
(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa; (2) Uganda Martyrs University, Faculty of the built environment, Kampala, Uganda; (3) University of Ghana, Institute of statistical, social and economic research, Accra, Ghana; (4) Durham University, Department of geography, Durham, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Africa is experiencing a massive urbanisation trend (Myers, 2011). Cities are experiencing rapid growth which, if left unplanned, runs the risk of developing in unsustainable ways. They are major sites of energy demand. If the emissions of developing country cities increase to that of many western cities today, catastrophic climate change will be unavoidable. Despite the scale and pace of urbanisation in these regions, the evidence base to support forward planning remains scarce. In its absence, cities run the risk of infrastructural lock-ins to systems that are unable to accommodate growth sustainably (Olazabal and Pascual, 2013). But understanding options for development of these energy systems requires context specific research. There are very few studies modelling the energy systems of African cities (Global Energy Assessment, 2012), with South Africa a notable exception (SEA, 2010). Much of how we understand urban energy systems is based on cities in Western and developed countries (Bhattacharyya et al. 2010b; Ruijven et al., 2008). But many cities in Africa challenge theories about economic development trajectories, sociology and urban geography that are based on developed country experiences (Bhattacharyya and Timilsina, 2010b; Urban et al., 2007; Myers, 2011). It is essential therefore to develop locally relevant planning tools to support the future development of urban energy systems and their associated infrastructures. Building capacity at the local level is an essential starting point in this regard.  

 

This project undertook energy modelling and scenario planning for sustainable energy transitions in six African cities in Ghana, Uganda and South Africa. It is the first phase of a larger project, Supporting African Municipalities with Sustainable Energy Transitions (SAMSET). Secondary and smaller cities are the main focus of this project. These cities are also experiencing massive social and economic expansions, but typically have less capacity to cope with it, and receive less research focus. The project aimed to develop an evidence base to serve as a tool for local decision-makers. We undertook bottom up modelling of urban energy systems using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model, developed by Stockholm Environment Institute. In-country partner universities undertook primary data collection on sectoral energy demand and supply. A baseline model and range of scenarios were then developed collaboratively with local research partners and municipalities. These results serve as the basis for further collaborative energy strategy development and prioritising implementation options for the next phases of SAMSET. The implementation scenarios have therefore attempted, through stakeholder engagement, to take into account governance systems, existing infrastructural constraints and opportunities as well as aligning with other development imperatives.

 

This project has made an important knowledge contribution to the dynamics of sustainable energy transitions in African cities, an area that has received relatively little research focus to date. Such research is of course made difficult by the data scarcity typical at a sub-national level. However this is merely reflective of the lack of financial investment to date. The local data collection processes in this project have been vital in building capacity as well as generating awareness around the urban energy system. The project has served to introduce to city and local planners the use of energy models, while also setting up the foundation for future development of energy modelling exercises and its applications locally. It has also made valuable modelling methodological contributions. The modelling has had to account for distinct characteristics such as the informal economy, own energy generation through diesel and gasoline generators, the high reliance on biomass, variations in urban forms as well as supply constrained electricity systems and suppressed demand for energy services. The project has had a strong focus on establishing a network of both north-south and south-south practitioners, through a knowledge exchange framework, to support more work in this important arena. 

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE IN CITIES: An Analysis of the Living Community Challenge Certification

J. Glowacki (Université Laval, Québec, QC, France)

Abstract details
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE IN CITIES: An Analysis of the Living Community Challenge Certification

J. Glowacki (1)
(1) Université Laval, Québec, QC, France

Abstract content

Adaptation and resilience are emerging as key components to the paradigm shift needed in urban planning to deal with the super wicked problems of climate change and resource depletion that characterize the urban reality of the early XXIst century.  However, the lack of emphasis on the examination of governance from a practical perspective is stunting the transfer of academic ideas to actual interventions and hindering the timely implementation of solutions.  My presentation addresses these issues by analyzing the newly released Living Community Challenge (LCC) certification system as a conceptual framework in guiding interventions for adaptation and resilience in cities.

The presentation will be separated into four sections: 1- characterization of principal parameters in resilience and adaptation, 2- synthesis of currently applied methodologies, 3- identification of recognized barriers in adaptation interventions 4- and analysis of the LCC certification as a regulatory tool.  Specifically, in the first section, I will be performing an epistemological analysis of the fundamental concepts of climate change adaptation within the context of urban planning processes.  Second, I will provide a summary of current methodologies used in adaptation experiments, as well as, juxtaposing these methodologies against theoretical processes proposed by many leading thinkers in the field of adaptation planning.   I will discuss the involvement of these processes in strategic program development, especially as pertaining to the importance of the multi-level governance frameworks and the transmission of information in institutional learning.  The use of innovative ideas such as experimentation, market-based approaches and maintenance management will be addressed.  An examination of the obstacles encountered in applying climate change sensitive modifications to regulatory aspects in cities and their related projects will examine the prevailing barriers accompanying legitimacy/power struggles and the characteristics of policy development coupled with super wicked problems.

Finally, the LCC certification system will be juxtaposed against the theoretical groundwork identified in the first three sections to establish connections between the processes described in adaptation management and the potential for real-life application in order to meet adaptation and resilience goals.  The presentation will answer the following questions: Does the LCC certification meet adaptation and resilience parameters in its scope and implementation?  How does the certification system measure against current methodologies applied in existing experimentation?  Does the tool provide a structure which enables well-recognized barriers to be surmounted more easily or does it create potential negative feedbacks hampering its use?  

As the urgency for climate change adaptation in cities increases, the need for tools which can guide practitioners in uncharted waters will become pressing.  This analysis of the Living Community Challenge (LCC) examines the system within the framework of academic theory on adaptation and resilience, in order to facilitate community approaches to sustainability and resilience. 

Numerical Evaluation of Building Materials and Cooling System Strategies for improving Urban Micro-Climate Situations in a Sub-Tropical Urban Area: Bandar-Abbas City

H. Malakooti (University of Hormozgan, Banadar Abbas, Hormozgan, Islamic Republic of Iran), V. A. Sheikhy (University of Hormozgan, Banadar Abbas, Hormozgan, Islamic Republic of Iran)

Abstract details
Numerical Evaluation of Building Materials and Cooling System Strategies for improving Urban Micro-Climate Situations in a Sub-Tropical Urban Area: Bandar-Abbas City

H. Malakooti (1) ; VA. Sheikhy (1)
(1) University of Hormozgan, Department of non-Biological Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Banadar Abbas, Hormozgan, Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract content

Further expansion of cities and urbanization in less-developed countries is projected that this issue make the necessary assessments and controls of outdoor comfort conditions in urban areas. Bandar Abbas city is known as coastal urban area that has been rapid urbanization growth during last decades. This city experiences a sub-tropical climate so it remains cool in winter with hot and humid conditions in the summer. For this area with high daily insolation and humidity, cool roofs and pavements installation or some short term strategies such as roof-whitening of previously black roofs can be preferable strategies for improving outdoor comfort conditions in contrast with green roofs installation, improving urban vegetation and water bodies setting up. The influence of waste heat release from air conditioning systems on local-scale urban climates can be significant as urban traffic heat flux. In this study the effect of different parameters of building materials and surfaces and also air condition system efficiency on the outdoor thermal environment is simulated for residential Bandar Abbas area during a warm period in June 2013 by meso-‌scale meteorological model WRF coupled with a multi-layered building energy model (BEP+BEM). For this purpose, in the beginning WRF+ BEP +BEM model is validated by establishment of mobile and stationary measurement campaign for temperature, wind field and humidity over urban, sub-urban and rural Bandar Abbas region. The validation results showed that this configured tool for respected area has been able to simulate accurately urban canopy temperature and wind fields, and this coupling (WRF+BEP+BEM) is taken into account urban buildings presence. The sensitivity of outdoor temperature to applying building materials parameters such as surface albedo and application of materials with low heat conductivity and high heat capacity were conducted. In summer simulation period, an increasing of heat  diffusivity  coefficient by a factor of 10 in the ceilings and walls had led to 37% increasing in the air conditioning load and consequently an increasing simulated mean 2-meter canyon temperature around 1.86 °C. In contrast, the reduction of heat diffusivity coefficient by factor of 10, had reduced the electrical demand for cooling as more than 42% and with a decreasing simulated mean 2-meter outdoor temperature around 1.18 °C. Also in this period, an increasing of specific thermal capacity by a factor of 10 in the ceilings and walls had led to 44% decreasing in the air conditioning load and consequently a decreasing simulated mean 2-meter canyon temperature around 0.47 °C. It is observed that  the reduction of specific thermal capacity by factor of 10, had increased the electrical demand for cooling as more than 16% with an increasing simulated mean 2-meter outdoor temperature around 1.02 °C. The simulation results showed that the increasing of roofs and walls albedo from 0.2 to 0.8 had led to 23% decreasing in the air conditioning load and consequently a decreasing simulated mean 2-meter canyon temperature around 1.45 °C. In other direction, it is observed that the reduction of these surface albedo from 0.2 to 0.05 had increased the electrical demand for cooling as more than 56% and with an increasing simulated mean 2-meter outdoor temperature around 1.95 °C. The consideration of lower indoor thermal comfort level in warm period simulations, for a sample was showed that the shifting of thermal comfort level from 25 to 21 °C had led to 31% increasing in the air conditioning load and consequently an increasing simulated mean 2-meter canyon temperature around 1.83 °C. It also was observed that this surplus air conditioning flux had a nonlinear effect on low level outdoor temperature. Also the consideration of lower efficiency coefficient from 3.5 to 1.2 in simulation, had led us to 29% increasing in waste heat release from air conditioning systems that was coasted an increasing simulated mean 2-meter canyon temperature around 1.73 °C. The simulation results showed that different strategies can significantly improving outdoor comfort conditions up to 2.21°C and mitigating the magnitude of air conditioning heat flux and savings internal cooling energy demand up to 44 percent in this region. The results have shown the importance of some tested strategies in warm coastal areas that can provide practical guidelines for sustainable urban and regional planning. Finally, the method is presented in this work offers a modeling platform that can be used to assess urban environment and energy consumption analyses for effective urban management.

Integration of adaptation to climate change within the design process of urban planning projects : new tool(s) and new methodology(ies)

M. Colombert (Ecole des Ingénieurs de la Ville de Paris, Paris, France), M. Gantois, (City of paris, Paris, France), L. Jacquet, (EGIS Concept / ELIOTH, Montreuil, France), A. Leseur, (CDC Climat, Paris, France), G. Meunier, (EGIS Concept / ELIOTH, Montreuil, France), H. Nassopoulos, (Ecole des Ingénieurs de la Ville de Paris, Paris, France), J.-L. Salagnac, (CSTB, Champs-sur-Marne, France)

Abstract details
Integration of adaptation to climate change within the design process of urban planning projects : new tool(s) and new methodology(ies)

M. Colombert (1) ; M. Gantois, (2) ; L. Jacquet, (3) ; A. Leseur, (4) ; G. Meunier, (3) ; H. Nassopoulos, (1) ; JL. Salagnac, (5)
(1) Ecole des Ingénieurs de la Ville de Paris, Paris, France; (2) City of paris, Paris, France; (3) EGIS Concept / ELIOTH, Montreuil, France; (4) CDC Climat, Paris, France; (5) CSTB, Desh, Champs-sur-Marne, France

Abstract content

During the ADAPTATIO project, partners have reflected on the means available to address in the design of development projects the issue of adaptation to climate change in relation with mitigation. For this, the adaptation has been defined in terms of two key resources for tomorrow - water and energy - and on the economic evaluation of these two intakes. Exploring contrasted possible futures was privileged to show the consequences, including economic, of those choices. Solutions to act on the building envelope, on equipment and on the immediate environment of the buildings were identified. Each solution has an investment cost, operating and maintenance costs, and a very specific lifetime.

Thereafter, the reflections in common with professional urban development have led to two conclusions. Firstly, the adaptation does not appear to the specifications of ongoing and planned projects. The project and the daily monitoring are already very complex. The consideration of climate change during project is not easy due to the uncertainty regarding the intensity of future climate change. Secondly, this relative lack of interest on adaptation, due to the significance of the operational aspects of the conduct of operations, however, is accompanied by a curiosity to have elements of appreciation regarding the magnitude and urgency to set up adaptation measures.

Premièrement, l’adaptation ne figure pas au cahier des charges des projets en cours ou projetés à court terme, dont le déroulé et le suivi au quotidien se révèlent déjà très complexes. L’incertitude autour de l’intensité des futurs changements climatiques ne facilitent pas leur prise en considération lors des projets.

The tools developed within the project ADAPTATIO, including the "toolbox", intend to propose an answer to the needs of professionals. This toolbox processes the results of simulation software to the scale of the building on the one hand (CLIM'ELIOTH. Ecodesign tool developed by Egis Concept and addressing energy issues and comfort of buildings), to the neighborhood level on the other hand (ENVI-MET: simulation tool on urban comfort particularly taking into account the evapotranspiration of vegetation phenomena). This software uses meteorological data for 2050-2100 provided by Meteonorm. The toolbox also includes economic data regarding the costs of energy and water to the same time periods as for the climate. This tool enables meeting the wishes of professionals to have synthetic indicators on the qualification of indoor and outdoor comfort at the neighborhood level. The associated costs are also accessible. ADAPTATIO toolbox is able to raise awareness of professionals regarding the issues due to a new climate. Particular attention has been paid to the interface that further tests will lead to improvement. Its current limits are to require a complete new data entry (geometry and description of buildings and their environment) to analyze a new neighborhood.

The ADAPTATIO objective was however achieved: to make possible an exploration by professionals on the incidence of future climate on water consumption and energy of a group of buildings actually made in the ZAC Tolbiac. It is all about creating the conditions for an exchange without pretending to replace the detailed study and simulation tools operationally mobilized by the actors of urban development. The maturity of the concept of adaptation and reflections on its close ties with mitigation still seems inadequate given the analysis of research on these topics. It seems therefore necessary to continue the maturation and ADAPTATIO toolbox may help. The project has also attracted the rich exchanges at workshops and public meetings about the economic aspects of adaptation. Some steps have been taken in connection with the professional practices to facilitate the exchange between economists and practitioners about the economic and financial implications of adaptation. However the long-term outlook for costs (energy and water) is difficult to understand.

Qualitative Scenario Building for Post-carbon Cities

M. Breil, (FEEM, Venice, Italy), A. Bigano (FEEM, Milan, Italy), C. Cattaneo (FEEM, Milan, Italy), K. Johnson (FEEM, Venice, Italy)

Abstract details
Qualitative Scenario Building for Post-carbon Cities

M. Breil, (1) ; A. Bigano (2) ; C. Cattaneo (3) ; K. Johnson (1)
(1) FEEM, Climate change and sustainable development, Venice, Italy; (2) FEEM, Climate change and sustainable development, energy resources and markets, Milan, Italy; (3) FEEM, Climate change and sustainable development, Milan, Italy

Abstract content

This contribution presents the results from interactions with representatives in 10 cities of different sizes, located across Europe, aimed at the development of local visions and scenarios for transitioning to become post-carbon by 2050. Findings are based on experiences from the European Union funded project Post-Carbon Cities of Tomorrow (POCACITO), which aims at the development of an evidence-based roadmap for post-carbon European cities in 2050.

By means of holding local workshops in a participatory case study approach, the foresight exercise is conducted using a two-step methodology, consisting of vision building and back casting exercises. Both exercises have a strong focus on the inclusion of stakeholders. The use of a participatory approach, where the people whose futures are being discussed are the key actors of the process, can improve the relevance, consistency, and hence usefulness of scenarios.  Creative brainstorming is employed to induce stakeholders to first envision the future of their city, and then develop qualitative scenarios describing how the transition to reach their post-carbon vision might be possible. Obstacles and opportunities that might be encountered along the way are identified, and actions needed to meet future goals are highlighted. The case study cities include Barcelona, Copenhagen/Malmö, Istanbul, Lisbon, Litoměřice, Milan/Turin, Rostock, and Zagreb.

Initial results from 6 out of 10 case study cities show similar elements in the local strategies that have been proposed by local stakeholders, focusing primarily on urban projects for energy efficiency and the transition to non- fossil energy resources. The specific mix of strategies envisaged in these fields for each city depends both on different points of departure with regards to local governance (greater or smaller financial autonomy, extension of the municipal jurisdiction, etc. ), and in part on specific local economic issues (development of economic sectors and/or generic aims of development). Under the prospect of urban sustainability, consideration is also given to thematic areas like consumption, as most visions contain “circular economy” as an aim, related to waste but also to energy generation. Further to “classic” urban issues in the transition to become a post-carbon city, some visions contain, for instance, a more or less generic prospective on local economic development and social inclusion. Additional analysis will be conducted to identify if the different city characteristics influence the set of actions, obstacles, opportunities, and milestones proposed during the workshops. Moreover, the actions proposed during the participatory exercise will be compared to the existing urban plans for carbon reduction. The objective of this analysis is to identify if the participatory approach provides tangible advantages.

The great homogeneity of the initial results and the high rate of correspondence to issues considered in the international debate on post-carbon transitions can be interpreted as a sort of bottom-up confirmation for these arguments. However, it can also be seen as a result of a relatively high-level of uniformity in the composition of stakeholder groups across the local case study workshops, raising the question of how visions and scenarios might be described in a forum not composed mainly by “educated middle-class representatives”. 

Mitigating Climate Change Through Managing Urban Mobility and Urban Form

R. Agustina (National Institute of Technology (Itenas), Bandung, West Java, Indonesia)

Abstract details
Mitigating Climate Change Through Managing Urban Mobility and Urban Form

R. Agustina (1)
(1) National Institute of Technology (Itenas), Urban and Regional Planning, Bandung, West Java, Indonesia

Abstract content

Some researches have emphasized that travel patterns and their impacts on the environment are strongly related to the urban form. It is also believed that the private automobile has been the primary cause of the expansion of cities. However, in fact, they affect each other. The urban form affects the travel pattern, and the suburbanisation is also the cause of the changes in the socio-economic context of urban life that are also responsible for the growth in car ownership.

 

The high-energy consumption of transport in low-density cities has become a matter of growing concern. The threat of long-term climate changes due to greenhouse gases have sharpened the awareness that present energy prices do not nearly cover the environmental and social costs of energy use. However, there have been some suggestions to respond to this challenge. The majority of them follow the hypothesis that the energy use of urban transport is a direct function of population density and suggest a return to mixed-use, compact urban form.

 

Nevertheless, such researches on developing countries are still limited. Do they bring a similar conclusion? Using Bandung Metropolitan Area (BMA) as the case study, this paper tries to investigate how the urban form affects travel patterns in Indonesia’s metropolitan areas. BMA is the second largest metropolitan area in Indonesia, it has more than 7 millions inhabitants in which about 67,7% of them live in the urban area. Thus, it can be predicted that it generates a significant level of urban mobility, which in turn may lower the environment condition.

 

This paper discovers the impacts of the urban form on the travel pattern. It tries to explain to what extent the urban form affects the travel pattern and how it is strongly related to urban environment especially through the air pollution factor. 

Adapting cities to climate change : a systemic modelling approach

V. Masson (CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France), A. Lemonsu (CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France), M. Bonhomme (ENSA, Toulouse, France), G. Bretagne (AUAT, Toulouse, France), S. Hallegatte (The World Bank (WB), Washington, United States of America), J. Hidalgo (LISST, Toulouse, France), T. Houet (GEODE, Toulouse, France), N. Long (LIENSs, La Rochelle, France), C. Marchadier (CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France), M.-P. Moine (CERFACS, Toulouse, France), C. Demunck (CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France), L. Nolorgues (IAU Ile de France, Paris, France), G. Pigeon (CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France), J.-L. Salagnac, (CSTB, Champs-sur-Marne, France), V. Viguie (CIRED, Paris, France), K. Zibouche (CSTB, Champs-sur-Marne, France)

Abstract details
Adapting cities to climate change : a systemic modelling approach

V. Masson (1) ; A. Lemonsu (1) ; M. Bonhomme (2) ; G. Bretagne (3) ; S. Hallegatte (4) ; J. Hidalgo (5) ; T. Houet (6) ; N. Long (7) ; C. Marchadier (1) ; MP. Moine (8) ; C. Demunck (1) ; L. Nolorgues (9) ; G. Pigeon (1) ; JL. Salagnac, (10) ; V. Viguie (11) ; K. Zibouche (12)
(1) CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France; (2) ENSA, Toulouse, France; (3) AUAT, Toulouse, France; (4) The World Bank (WB), Washington, United States of America; (5) LISST, Toulouse, France; (6) GEODE, Toulouse, France; (7) LIENSs, La Rochelle, France; (8) CERFACS, Toulouse, France; (9) IAU Ile de France, Paris, France; (10) CSTB, Desh, Champs-sur-Marne, France; (11) CIRED, Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, Paris, France; (12) CSTB, Champs-sur-Marne, France

Abstract content

To answer the climate change challenge, all states have to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, but also to adopt adaptation measures to limit the negative impacts of global warming on the population, the economy and the environment. The question arises especially for cities.

Because of complex interactions between climate change, the evolution of cities and its inhabitants, studying adaptation strategies for cities requires a strong interdisciplinary approach involving urban planners, building engineers, and researchers in architecture, meteorology, climate, economy, and social sciences.

 

Our four-step methodology consists firstly of defining interdisciplinary scenarios at several scales influencing the city evolution; secondly of simulating long term city evolution based on socio-economic and land-use models; thirdly of calculating impacts with physical models, and finally of calculating the indicators quantifying the impacts and evaluating the adaptation strategies.

Interdisciplinary systemic modelling performs well to evaluate several adaptation strategies for a very broad range of topics. Some of the results obtained for the agglomeration of Paris through our interdisciplinary research projects VURCA and MUSCADE will be discussed:

 

A finding is that urban planning strategies may have unexpected influence on city expansion when considered on the very long term of the climate change. Another is that the combine effect of global warming and UHI can lead in the future to larger energy consumption in summer than in winter.

Indeed, air-conditioning will probably be necessary in 2100, because of expected stronger, and longer, heat waves. Limiting the UHI intensity allows for energy savings, and hence contributes to climate change mitigation. Adaptation strategies exist to limit air-conditioning use, both in time and intensity.

 

Analysis of several vegetation strategies, at several spatial and planning scales (from agricultural practices in the city surroundings to urban trees and green-roofs) have been performed and evaluated. Architectural choices also allow to reduce the UHI. Finally, inhabitants' use and practices seem to be an efficient lever to reduce energy consumption in buildings and its impact on the urban climate.

Urban Climate, Human behavior and Energy consumption : from local climate zone mapping to simulation and urban planning (the MapUCE project)

V. Masson (CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France), J. Hidalgo (LISST, Toulouse, France), E. Bocher (IRSTV, Nantes, France), M. Bonhomme (ENSA, Toulouse, France), G. Bretagne (AUAT, Toulouse, France), E. Cordeau (IAU Ile de France, Paris, France), S. Haoues-Jouve (LISST, Toulouse, France), M.-L. Lambert (Université Aix-Marseille, Marseille, France), A. Lemonsu (CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France), J.-P. Lévy (LATTS, Champs-sur-Marne, France), N. Long (LIENSs, La Rochelle, France), M. Pellegrino (Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, Champs-sur-Marne, France), G. Petit (IRSTV, Nantes, France), C. Plumejeaud (LIENSs, La Rochelle, France)

Abstract details
Urban Climate, Human behavior and Energy consumption : from local climate zone mapping to simulation and urban planning (the MapUCE project)

V. Masson (1) ; J. Hidalgo (2) ; E. Bocher (3) ; M. Bonhomme (4) ; G. Bretagne (5) ; E. Cordeau (6) ; S. Haoues-Jouve (2) ; ML. Lambert (7) ; A. Lemonsu (1) ; JP. Lévy (8) ; N. Long (9) ; M. Pellegrino (10) ; G. Petit (3) ; C. Plumejeaud (9)
(1) CNRS/Météo-France, Toulouse, France; (2) LISST, Toulouse, France; (3) IRSTV, Nantes, France; (4) ENSA, Toulouse, France; (5) AUAT, Toulouse, France; (6) IAU Ile de France, Paris, France; (7) Université Aix-Marseille, Ea lieu, Marseille, France; (8) LATTS, Champs-sur-Marne, France; (9) LIENSs, La Rochelle, France; (10) Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée, Champs-sur-Marne, France

Abstract content

The MApUCE project aims to integrate in urban policies and most relevant legal documents quantitative data from urban microclimate, climate and energy.The primary objective of this project is to obtain climate and energy quantitative data from numerical simulations, focusing on urban microclimate and building energy consumption in the residential and service sectors, which represents in France 41% of the final energy consumption. Both aspects are coupled as building energy consumption is highly meteorologically dependent (e.g. domestic heating, air-conditioning) and heat waste impact the Urban Heat Island. We propose to develop, using national databases, a generic and automated method for generating Local Climate Zones (LCZ) for all cities in France, including the urban architectural, geographical and sociological parameters necessary for energy and microclimate simulations.

As will be presented, previous projects on adaptation of cities to climate change have shown that human behavior is a very potent level to address energy consumption reduction, as much as urban forms or architectural technologies. Therefore, in order to further refine the coupled urban climate and energy consumption calculations, we will develop within the Town Energy Balance scheme (and its Building Energy Module), which simulates energy exchanges between the urban surface and the atmosophere,  a model of energy consumer behavior.

 

The second objective of the project is to propose a methodology to integrate quantitative data in urban policies. Lawyers analyze the potential levers in legal and planning documents. A few “best cases” are also studied, in order to evaluate their performances. Finally, based on urban planning agencies requirements, we will define vectors to include quantified energy-climate data to legal urban planning documents. These vectors have to be understandable by urban planners and contain the relevant information.

 

To meet these challenges, the project is organized around strongly interdisciplinary partners in the following fields: law, urban climate, building energetics, architecture, sociology, geography and meteorology, as well as the national federation of urban planning agencies.In terms of results, the cross-analysis of input urban parameters and urban micro-climate-energy simulated data will be available on-line as standardized maps for each of the studied cities. The urban parameter production tool as well as the models will be available as open-source. LCZ and associated urban (and social!) indicators may be integrated within the future World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools database.

How do we Create and Build Knowledge Partnerships for Cities?: The Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) ARC3-2

C. Rosenzweig (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America), S. Ali Ibrahim (Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), Columbia University, New York, United States of America)

Abstract details
How do we Create and Build Knowledge Partnerships for Cities?: The Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) ARC3-2

C. Rosenzweig (1) ; S. Ali Ibrahim (2)
(1) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America; (2) Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), Columbia University, New York, United States of America

Abstract content

The objective of this presentation is to introduce the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), and to foster a dialogue between global experts and local policy leaders regarding latest scientific findings and action areas on cities and climate change. 

Climate change mitigation and adaptation are areas of high priority action in the urban context. These are often dealt with as separate issues in academic research, international climate talks, as well as national and local policy-making -- leading to a situation where these focus areas often compete for funding and for decision-makers’ attention. The session will discuss the main challenges and potential of cities to integrate climate change adaptation and mitigation actions. 

This presentation will introduce the UCCRN and present initial findings from the Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), concerning interelationships between adaptation and mitigation in cities. Synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation will be analyzed and discussed across scales.  The session will illustrate the need and importance of building a robust climate knowledge base in cities to support them in developing climate change actions strategies to address both climate adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner.

The objective of the UCCRN is to bring together experts working on global-scale, climate change and cities assessments in order to simultaneously present state-of-the-art knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change and to define emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective placement of this knowledge in the hands of local stakeholders and decision-makers.

The First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3) was published in 2011 by Cambridge University Press, and articulates urban climate risk frameworks, climate science for cities, and derives policy implications for key urban sectors — water and sanitation, energy, transportation, public health — and cross-cutting issues through land use and governance. The ARC3 report, containing 46 city adaptation and mitigation case studies, represents a four-year effort by 100+ scholars from over 50 cities in both developing and developed countries, and is the first-ever global, interdisciplinary, cross-regional, science-based assessment to address climate risks, adaptation, mitigation, and policy mechanisms relevant to cities.

The UCCRN is now working towards launching the next installment in this ongoing series, the Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2). This session will present a ‘First Look‘ at the ARC3-2 Report, which has been submitted to Cambridge University Press. The ARC3-2 Report is scheduled to be launched at COP21 in Paris.

The content and format of the ARC3-2 report has been based on several scoping session dialogues held at international conferences, inviting thoughts and reflections from urban and climate change scholars, city practitioners, and stakeholders. It has also taken into account survey feedback from ARC3 users and city officials. This discussion will highlight UCCRN’s approach to knowledge creation and the status and next steps for ARC3-2.

The presentation will comprise of an introduction by the Co-Editors of the ARC3-2, its new topics and novel perspectives. It will present the main thrust of the Report and the analytical challenges of the main sections of ARC3-2, and will outline the content, analytical breath and anticipated challenges in building the main sections of the report, including: Interdisciplinary methods and tools to analyze cross-cutting processes driving climate change and sustainable development; climate science and disaster risk management; urban infrastructure; urban ecosystems; and governance, policy and finance. It will also include details on the UCCRN Regional Hubs in Paris, Rio, and Durban, to be launched at COP21. Through this regional participation, the audience will be able to grasp key regional priorities addressed in ARC3-2, with concrete examples of relevant analytical and policy cases. It will also discuss innovations for analyzing, reporting and communicating scientific progress in this field. This includes a short briefing on how ARC3-2 is building a storing communication platform (i.e., a Case Study Docking Station) to improve access to information by policy makers, academics and practioners. 

Livable Urban Futures - Process and Way Forward for Urban within Future Earth

C. Griffith (UGEC Project, Tempe, United States of America), P. Romero Lankao (University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America), D. Simon (Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden)

Abstract details
Livable Urban Futures - Process and Way Forward for Urban within Future Earth

C. Griffith (1) ; P. Romero Lankao (2) ; D. Simon (3)
(1) UGEC Project, ASU GIOS, Tempe, United States of America; (2) University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America; (3) Chalmers University of Technology, Mistra urban futures, Gothenburg, Sweden

Abstract content

The complexity of urban systems and the global sustainability challenges that we face require inter- and transdisciplinary research that combines context sensitive regional and global approaches to inform and challenge solutions. Although traditions of addressing urban complexities have long existed in the social sciences, humanities, engineering, and natural sciences, we have barely scratched the surface in our efforts to understand many crosscutting issues. A lack of interdisciplinary and co-produced research on the interactions and feedbacks between urbanization, urban areas and global environmental change (GEC) profoundly limits the potential to intentionally shift development pathways through planned governmental and nongovernmental actions.

Sponsored by the Science and Technology Alliance for Global Sustainability, the global research platform, Future Earth represents a new opportunity to rethink how GEC research is organized to encourage interdisciplinarity, and how it can better connect science with policy in order to offer solutions to today’s grand sustainability challenges. Future Earth recently published its 2014 Strategic Research Agenda naming ‘urban’ as one of its priority research areas. With this changing global research landscape, a number of urban research and practice communities are currently interested in new opportunities for enriched collaboration and for expanding and enhancing the ‘urban’ research agenda under the Future Earth framework.  There is a lot of fertile ground for innovative research to promote linkages across established or rapidly emerging areas of urban and environmental research and the Future Earth research themes.

In February 2014 and March 2015, Scoping Meetings were held in London, UK and Boulder, CO, USA that brought together representatives of different regions, disciplinary backgrounds and inter- and non-governmental organizations to begin conversations on the gaps and future needs for urban research as well as the necessary components for the design of a new urban interdisciplinary initiative.

The purpose of this presentation is to share the outcomes of the two workshops and the overall process that has been set in motion by the Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) Project along with many other partners known as the Future Earth Urban Platform (FEUP) Working Group. This Working Group is leading the transition of the urban agenda within Future Earth through: a) the establishment of urban flagship activities and b) the design of an urban platform for facilitating interdisciplinary research coordination and co-design with urban stakeholders and practitioners. The goals for this session is to openly communicate this process of the urban transition into Future Earth and how it can better facilitate research and practice related to urban options for and limits to the transformation towards global sustainability; to offer pathways for the engagement of new communities of urban researchers, practitioners, and others; and receive input and feedback from the session participants on the process and platform design.