Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Tuesday 7 July - 17:00-18:30 UPMC Jussieu - ROOM 307 - Block 24/34

1104 - Climate services and information: from global change to local decisions

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), J. Sillmann (CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo), Oslo, Norway)

Convener(s): K. De Bruin (CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo), Oslo, Norway)

17:00

Use of Climate Information in the context of helping prepare American military bases for climate change

L. Mearns (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America), M. Rachel (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America), M. Bukovsky (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America)

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Use of Climate Information in the context of helping prepare American military bases for climate change

L. Mearns (1) ; M. Rachel (1) ; M. Bukovsky (1)
(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America

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We will describe the work we have performed in two projects through the Strategic Development and Research Propogram of the US Department of Defense.  We are providing future climate information to a total of eight different miliarty bases in the continental US. The kinds of impacts include damage from storm surges due to sea level rise, increased hear stress and potential increased damage from erosion because of increased extreme precipitation,  increased extreme fire risk, and potential changes in severe storms.   We discuss how we present uncertainty information to the stakeholders (military personnel) are each base, and discuss the different levels of interest or concern we found among the stakeholders based on their prior experience with extreme events. 

17:10

Climate Science for Climate Services: Creating capacity within CORDEX-Africa

C. Lennard (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

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Climate Science for Climate Services: Creating capacity within CORDEX-Africa

C. Lennard (1)
(1) University of Cape Town, Climate System Analysis Group, Cape Town, South Africa

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Within the Co-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), the Cordex-Africa initiative has been developed to analyze downscaled regional climate data over the African domain of CORDEX, train young climate scientists in climate data analysis techniques and engage users of climate information in both sector specific and region/space-based applications. A series of engagements between African climate scientists and users of climate information under the CORDEX-Africa banner has begun and we report on the outcomes of these as well as the future plans of the programme. Established and young climate scientists from west, east central and southern Africa have analysed downscaled data from the CORDEX Africa domain and produced 9 scientific journal papers to date through a series of highly successful workshops, all first authored by early-career scientists or students. These papers have greatly enhanced the understanding of climate processes in each of the regions. Additionally, members from each region have been involved in workshops that engage users of climate information to co-explore the climate information needs of these communities. These included (a) engagements with ecological, hydrological and agricultural scientists that helped refine some of the research questions to be addressed in later CORDEX activities, (b) with health sector practitioners in West Africa to understand their needs with respect to climate information and (c) representatives from five African cities to understand city-scale climate vulnerabilities and information needs. Planned activities include a series of workshops to analyse climate projection data in the 4 regions with input from climate information users to assess potential effect of global warming on atmospheric process and the impacts these may have in the engaged user communities.

17:20

The FODAS based climate prediction services in China

Z. Gong (Beijing climate center, Beijing, China)

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The FODAS based climate prediction services in China

Z. Gong (1)
(1) Beijing climate center, Beijing, China

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The structure of China Framework of Climate Service, what we called CFCS to compare to the GFCS is building in China. Based on climate database and climate system model, climate monitoring and prediction products is issued. We focus on climate security and disaster risk reduction. Climate security is a new concept developed by Dr. Zheng Guogang. who is the Administrator of China Meteorological administration. Climate is really related to food security, water security, energy security and ecological security, and so on.  We need to assess climate impact, climate capacity, to analyze climate resource and provide climate proofing to support sustainable development of social-economy in china. As China belongs to monsoon climate and is a very vulnerable country suffered from different kinds of meteorological disasters. Therefore, Beijing Climate Center (BCC) are facing big challenge of disaster risk reduction. We need to do disaster survey, to assess vulnerability, to issue risk warning even support risk transfer. Through the user interface plan and partnership, we provide all of those climate services to decision makers, public community and economic sectors. Besides, in order to surport the capacity development of CFCS, the forecast system on dynamical and analogy skill (FODAS) is developed by BCC, which is used for supplying monthly and seasonal climate prediction services to the govement and public. FODAS is also been generalized in more than 30 provincial climate centers in China and used for regulary climate business. We are also working on developing a English version of FODAS to surport some international trainning courses held in CMA etc.  

17:30

The fourth generation of European-wide climate change impact assessments – lessons and outlook

H.-M. Füssel (European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark), J. André (European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark)

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The fourth generation of European-wide climate change impact assessments – lessons and outlook

HM. Füssel (1) ; J. André (1)
(1) European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark

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The European Environment Agency (EEA) is a boundary organization that bridges between data providers, including the scientific community, and policy makers. Its mandate is to provide timely, relevant and quality-controlled information on the environment to European policy makers (in particular the European Commission and the European Parliament), to national and sub-national policy-makers in its 32 member countries and 7 cooperating countries, and to the broader public. In 2012 the EEA published its third indicator-based report on climate change, impacts and vulnerability, following earlier reports in 2004 and 2008. The next report is scheduled for publication in 2016, and its preparation has already started.

 

The 2012 EEA report presents more than 40 quantitative indicators on observed and projected climate change and its impacts, most of them with European-wide coverage. The systems and sectors covered include coastal zones, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, agriculture, forests and forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, human health, energy, transport, and tourism. However, some important impact domains are not covered because information is not readily available at the European level, impacts are hard to quantify or to measure, and/or because the influence of climate change is hard to disentangle from socio-economic, technical, cultural and political developments. Under-reported impact domains include industry and manufacturing, insurance, infrastructure (except transport infrastructure), livestock production, cultural heritage (with some exceptions), migration, and general human wellbeing. Furthermore, the report presents cross-sectoral information with a focus on territorial impacts, on the vulnerability of cities and urban areas, and on climate change costs. The cross-sectoral assessments rely on information that is not fully consistent with the sector-based indicators, because these indicators are often not amenable to aggregation due to differences in climate change scenarios, non-climatic scenarios, impact metrics, and/or incompatible modelling and assessment approaches.  

This paper summarizes the availability of consistent information on observed and projected climate change and its impacts across climate-sensitive sectors and systems in Europe and identifies major knowledge gaps. It also presents the planning of the 2016 EEA report, including efforts for refocussing the indicator set in order to increase its policy relevance, improving coverage of information related to extreme weather and climate events, expanding consideration of cross-sectoral effects, and strengthening links between information on climate change impacts and adaptation-related issues. We also report on past and planned efforts at improving the assessment and reporting of uncertainties in observed and projected climate change and its impacts.

 

 

 

17:40

Innovation in French climate services thanks to service design

P. Dandin (Météo-France, Toulouse, France), L. Corre, (Météo-France, Toulouse, France), D. L'hôte, (Strate, Ecole de Design, Sèvres, France)

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Innovation in French climate services thanks to service design

P. Dandin (1) ; L. Corre, (2) ; D. L'hôte, (3)
(1) Météo-France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France; (2) Météo-France, Direction de la climatologie, Toulouse, France; (3) Strate, Ecole de Design, Sèvres, France

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Within the framework of the French National Adaptation to Climate Change Plan, the “Drias, the futures of climate” service provides support and easy access to the French regional climate projections. Users worship the unleash of such essential materials and rank Drias as one of the major recent steps toward the development of French Climate Services. Noteworthy, Drias is a joint initiative from the French community, gathering the meteorological service, Météo-France, with the main providers of regional climate scenarios in the country, CERFACS, IPSL and CNRM.

However necessary and successful the initiative might have been, many questions arose. Some came from the scientists whereas others were raised by users. How really useful was this service for the end-users and decision makers involved in adaptation planning at local scale? Did it help them to figure out what kind of climate change was happening and what could be thought to cope with it? Had the French scientific community made all possible efforts and released the information available in the laboratories? Taking advantage of all the assets worked out in the field of climatology, could it be possible to improve the delivery? Did we miss something believing we were doing our best? With many such questions in mind, soon after the opening of the Drias service, a review and reflection exercise was initiated.

The Viaduc project has this target: to evaluate and enhance Drias, as well as to imagine future developments to support adaptation. Users had been closely associated to the building of Drias, but they were not end users. Viaduc chose to address adaptation with local communities, thinking about real needs at the end users' level. The chosen end-users are three Natural Regional Parks located in the South West region of France. Such parks are administrative entities which gather together municipalities defined by a common natural and cultural heritage. They are also rural areas in which economic activities do take place, and therefore concerned and involved in both protecting their environment and setting up sustainable economic development. Climate researchers work together with a service designer. The designer's role consists in proposing an innovative approach based on the interaction between scientists and citizens. Actually, the designer observes both partners: scientists and end users.

The first part of the project has been dedicated to investigation and questioning with relevant representatives. The Viaduc team did not initiate new actions in the parks, but insert into existing ones, trying to ease them. Three key local economic sectors have been selected, which are forestry, agro-pastoralism and construction, relevant for each of the parks. Working groups composed of expert technicians, administrative and maintenance staff, politicians and climate researchers have been created. The sectors needs for climate information have been gauged, and concrete actions are now undertaken. They will be presented in this communication, together with lessons learnt. The second part of the project has focused on the transfer of ideas to the operational teams, in order to give life in next generation of products to some of the recommendations that came out of this thinking exercice.

The feedback from the designer and the Viaduc team on the services delivered by scientific agencies and the meteorological service do modify the classical views. It concerns all aspects of the products and services, and addresses many various subjects, from the relationship between weather and climate, the need for local and perceivable information and messages, to the necessity of a greater coherency and simplicity of the message...

A quick introduction to Drias will be made, and the Viaduc project and outcomes will be presented.

17:50

World Weather Attribution: A Real-Time Effort to Assess the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Weather and Climate Events

H. Cullen (Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States of America), M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), D. Karoly (University of Melbourne, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia), G. J. Van Oldenborgh (KMNI, De Bilt, Netherlands), E. Coughlan (Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands), M. Van Aalst (Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands)

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World Weather Attribution: A Real-Time Effort to Assess the Influence of Climate Change on Extreme Weather and Climate Events

H. Cullen (1) ; M. Allen () ; F. Otto (2) ; D. Karoly (3) ; GJ. Van Oldenborgh (4) ; E. Coughlan (5) ; A. Van (5)
(1) Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States of America; (2) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; (3) University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, VIC, Australia; (4) KMNI, De Bilt, Netherlands; (5) Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands

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Climate Central and its partners at the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the University of Melbourne, and the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre have established a new initiative called World Weather Attribution. World Weather Attribution aims to apply recent advances in the science of probabilistic extreme event attribution to build a real-time attribution capability designed to provide objective, science-based connections between rising greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and extreme weather and climate events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/flooding, and droughts in real-time. The goal is to design and implement a coordinated, transparent, multi-method approach that incorporates observational data, modeling studies, existing peer-reviewed research (i.e., IPCC SREX, etc.) and on the ground reports in order to better answer pressing questions about trends in risk and the role of human activity in extreme weather.

Assessing the influence of global warming in individual extreme weather events has been a goal of the scientific community for more than a decade. Advances in the field have prompted numerous studies, leading the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) to dedicate an annual special issue to extreme event attribution for the past three years. Currently, these studies require months to complete and are published well after public attention to the event has peaked, and when decisions on how to rebuild, for example, have already been finalized, often without attention to climate information on how risks of such events may have changed over time.

In fact, an analysis of media coverage of three recent extreme weather and climate events (2014 UK floods, 2013 Australian heat wave, ongoing California drought) conducted by Climate Central suggests that, despite strong public interest in better understanding the underlying cause of extreme weather and climate events, a significant majority of extreme event coverage fails to provide the broader climate context. While overall weather and climate coverage results in a large number of stories in the days to weeks following the event, attribution statements are rarely provided and often inaccurate as analyses are not available until several months later, after the media and public conversation is largely over and many recovery and reconstruction decisions have already been made, often based on limited information on changing risks.

Our goal is to apply established peer reviewed methodologies developed by the attribution community over the past decade - in an accelerated manner - so as to objectively assess the event in question and equip journalists, the public and decision makers with the broader context of changing risks, in some cases specifically due to global warming. To this end, the World Weather Attribution program will make extensive use of social science through experiments and robust literature reviews on the presentation of risk, probabilities, and uncertainty to guide the most effective deployment and presentation of these accelerated attribution statements. Here we discuss ongoing research that seeks to understand public understanding of the changing statistics of certain extreme weather and climate events and how best to communicate and apply attribution information. 

Poster presentations

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Poster presentations
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