Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Tuesday 7 July - 17:00-18:30 UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34

1121 - Air Pollution and Climate Change linkages and Health Impact Assessment

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): D. Hauglustaine (LSCE-CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), T. Butler (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany)

17:00

Air Pollution, Climate Change and Human Health

P. Kinney (Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, United States of America)

Abstract details
Air Pollution, Climate Change and Human Health

P. Kinney (1)
(1) Columbia University, Mailman School of Public Health, Climate and Health Program, New York, NY, United States of America

Abstract content

Air quality is a major modifiable health burden around the world, especially in rapidly developing cities. Exposure to air pollution, including fine particles (PM2.5) and ozone, has adverse effects on human health throughout the lifespan.  Adverse effects of air pollution include the development of chronic diseases such as lung cancer, chronic heart and lung diseases, as well as adverse effects on the reproductive system and on neuro-development.  Action to mitigate air pollution brings immediate and lasting benefits for the health and well-being of the population.  In addition, well-designed air pollution mitigation actions have the potential to reduce societal impacts on the climate system.  In order to inform global, regional and urban scale air pollution and climate planning, there is a need for multi-scale health impact assessments that estimate the potential health impacts and/or benefits that may result from coordinated mitigation strategies.  We describe several such recent and/or ongoing efforts of this kind.  For example, the recently-completed AC-HIA project estimated the influence that policies aimed at reducing air pollution emissions could have on global, regional and urban public health in 2030 and 2050, compared to 2010, taking into account the influence of climate change and alternative air pollution mitigation scenarios.  Assessments were carried out across three different geographic scales with increasing spatial granularity, for the entire world, for Europe, and for the Paris metropolitan region.  Two mitigation scenarios were evaluated: a business as usual scenario based on national regulations already on the books, and a maximum feasible reduction scenarios based on available technologies for air pollution control.  The results showed the potential for substantial increases in global deaths due to PM2.5 and ozone under the business as usual scenarios, especially in south and east Asia.  On the other hand, substantial health benefits could be achieved under the maximum feasible reduction scenario.  In general, health assessments carried out at finer spatial scales yielded greater health benefit estimates.  This and other studies are pointing the way to a new generation of tools for integrated air quality and climate planning.

Enormous health benefits can be achieved from well-chosen climate mitigation strategies that simultaneously reduce air pollution concentrations in the local and regional environments in which the emission reductions occur.  However, to evaluate those benefits in relation to specific mitigation options, careful analyses are needed at appropriate spatial scales to link the air pollution reductions to locations of vulnerable populations.  Through such analyses, alternative mitigation strategies can be compared and prioritized based on their potential health benefits, providing critical input to decision makers. 

17:20

Public health response to climate change in twenty-two European countries

B. Menne (WHO, WHO, ECEH, Bonn, Germany), V. Kendrovski, (WHO, Bonn, Germany), T. Wolf (WHO, Bonn, Germany), S. Gerardo (WHO, Bonn, Germany), J. Creswick (WHO, Bonn, Germany)

Abstract details
Public health response to climate change in twenty-two European countries

B. Menne (1) ; V. Kendrovski, (2) ; T. Wolf (3) ; S. Gerardo (2) ; J. Creswick (3)
(1) WHO, Program manager, climate change and sustainable development, WHO, ECEH, Bonn, Germany; (2) WHO, Bonn, Germany; (3) WHO, Cgs, Bonn, Germany

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Introduction: WHO European Member States (53 countries) agreed on implementing the European Framework for action on climate change and health. One of the mandate is the assessment of health implications of climate changre and the development of national health adaptation plans, as a contribution to WHO and UNFCCC developments.

Scope: to assess the scale and content of the national adaptation plans and the assessments, to identify incremental, transitional and transformational approaches and to guide future political and scientific developments 

Result: Between 2000 and 2014, twenty-two WHO European Member States, developed national adaptation plans with a health component; while 32 European Member States assessed the health implications of climate change. Most of the WHO European Region Member States have mainly focused on strengthening their health systems through a range of specific measures. All measures idenified mainly serve to address curent health problmes. Measures include: strengthened infectious disease surveillance; strengthened environmental health services, such as water, sanitation and vaccination; and nsynergise with the International Health Regulations. Fewer countries have been using new technologise and approaches, such as strengthened early-warning and disaster responses and integrated mapping. None has been using transfrmational approaches versus a 4 degree world, and large scale prevention of associated risks.  Countries highlighted the need for health benefitting mitigation measures for adaptation: these include local community action, improving air quaility, greening health services and renewable energy technologise. Examples from MS will be illustrated

Discussion: Synergistic interventions on both adaptation and mitigation, can in particular be useful for health and well-being. The post 2015 development agenda will play an increasing important role.  It will be important to provide an understanding of the wider dimension to health and environment decision makers.

17:34

The impact of climate policies on European air quality in the 21st century

A. Colette (INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France), S. Schucht, (INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France), B. Bessagnet, (INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France), M. Holland, (EMRC, London, United Kingdom), Z. Klimont, (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), L. Menut, (IPSL, Palaiseau, France), S. Rao, (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), S. Szopa, (IPSL, Saclay, France), R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France), J.-M. Brignon, (INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France), L. Rouil, (INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France)

Abstract details
The impact of climate policies on European air quality in the 21st century

A. Colette (1) ; S. Schucht, (1) ; B. Bessagnet, (1) ; M. Holland, (2) ; Z. Klimont, (3) ; L. Menut, (4) ; S. Rao, (3) ; S. Szopa, (5) ; R. Vautard (6) ; JM. Brignon, (1) ; L. Rouil, (1)
(1) INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France; (2) EMRC, London, United Kingdom; (3) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (4) IPSL, Palaiseau, France; (5) IPSL, Saclay, France; (6) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

Abstract content

Climate change, long range transport of pollutants and surface air quality share multiple interaction pathways. Tailoring efficient air quality mitigation strategies over the long term requires taking into account such external factors whose variability can be neglected for short term projections. We designed, developed and implemented a new regional air quality and climate modelling system to account for the possible penalties of climate change and long range transport of pollutants on European air quality. In order to ensure its relevance for environmental policy making, this modelling system is embedded in a quantitative cost-benefit analysis framework.

The regional air quality and climate modelling suite allowed proposing an assessment of European air quality in 2050. We highlighted the dominating influence of mitigation of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants in Europe. But the penalty brought about by climate change on ozone pollution was also confirmed, and the large impact of long range transport at the 2050 horizon was emphasized. For particulate matter, long range transport is less important; the impact of climate change is significant but also uncertain.

Thanks to the use of air pollutant emission projections based on emission factors reflecting the current legislation, we could assess the costs of climate mitigation and air quality legislation. We point out the economic benefit of climate policies for air quality legislation due to a low carbon economy requiring less end-of-pipe technological measures against air pollution. The total cost of mitigation (air and climate) remains however higher under the mitigation than under the business as usual pathway.

The analysis of air and climate modelling results within a monetised health impact assessment framework allowed assessing expected sanitary benefits. It is important to highlight that the expected monetised sanitary benefits compensates the costs of climate mitigation, showing that air quality can be considered as a positive externality of low carbon policies.

17:48

Global and European scale health impact assessment (HIA) of PM2.5 over the 21st century

V. Likhvar (CNRS, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Global and European scale health impact assessment (HIA) of PM2.5 over the 21st century

V. Likhvar (1)
(1) CNRS, Paris, France

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Multi-scale approach to health impact assessment (HIA) can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies. Although this approach provides results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales, it has several limitations, such as the choice of concentration-response function (CRF). The recently developed integrated exposure-response (IER) model (Burnett et al. 2014) combines global relative risk information from different combustion types of PM emissions, and can describe exposure-response relationships between PM2.5 and leading global causes of death, such as ischemic heart disease (IHD), cerebrovascular disease (stroke), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and lung cancer (LC). Using this model and ECLIPSE air pollution scenarios (current legislation (CLE) and maximum feasible (MFR)), we estimated future impact of PM2.5 on health at global and European scales in 2030 and 2050. Our preliminary results showed that 1/3 of total global burden of ambient air pollution on IHD deaths is associated with PM2.5 (488 000 deaths/year). If maximum reduction measures are implemented by 2030, this should be reduced globally by 17%; on the other hand, with the current legislation scenario the number of IHD deaths should continue to increase, and by 2030 will reach 586 000 deaths annually. However, these results may be greatly underestimated, as the PM concentration levels produced by the global model were much lower compared to the regional scale estimates.

18:02

Evaluating air quality impact on mortality and crop yields in South Asia

S. Ghude (Indian Institute of tropical Meteorology, Pune, India), C. Jena (Indian Institute of tropical Meteorology, Pune, India), D. Chate (Indian Institute of tropical Meteorology, Pune, India), G. Beig (Indian Institute of tropical Meteorology, Pune, India)

Abstract details
Evaluating air quality impact on mortality and crop yields in South Asia

S. Ghude (1) ; C. Jena (1) ; D. Chate (1) ; G. Beig (1)
(1) Indian Institute of tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

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Climate change has been shown to increase surface O3 in many regions of the world and have raised concerns about the O3 impact on mortality and the magnitude of yield reductions, primarily occurring in the developing nations.

Demographically agriculture is the broadest economic sector, rank worldwide second in farm output and principle source of livelihood for more than 58% of 1.2 billion populations which plays an important role in the overall socio-economic fabric of India. We have quantified, for the first time, a district-wise impact of surface ozone on cotton, soybeans, and rice and wheat crops for all of India. On a national scale, we eastimate fractional relative yield loss for wheat of about 5.0 (±1.2) %, 2.1 (±0.9) % for rice, 5.3 (±3.1) % for cotton and 2.7 (±1.9) % for Soyabean, with the losses concentrated in central and the Indo-gangetic plains of north India. In terms of absolute production losses by weight, wheat is the most impacted crop, with losses of 3.5±0.8 Mt followed by rice (2.1±0.8 Mt) sufficient to feed 94 million people living below poverty line in India. Translating crop production losses into national economic damage, we estimate an economic loss of 1.29 ±0.47 billion USD. Sensitivity studies with the integrated model study reveals NOx as the key pollutant causing as much as 93% of the crop loss.

Significant portion of human population in India is believed to be regularly exposed to higher surface ozone (O3) levels. Here, we have also evaluate total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities and hospitalizations (COPD) caused by population exposure to surface O3. Attributable mortalities are quantified using health impact function of long-term relative risk estimates (population attributable-risk proportion) for O3 from epidemiology literature. We calculated total mortality of about 1125 thousands, 404 thousands by cardiovascular deceases and 176 thousands by respiratory deceases, and COPD cases of about 175 thousands caused by O3 exposure to population of India in 2005. The highest number of total, cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities and COPD cases are found in the highly populated Indo-Gangetic region followed by metro-cities and sub-urban and industrial areas.

18:16

Impacts of Climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

L. Hamaoui-Laguel (Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France), R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France), L. Liu (International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy), F. Solmon (International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy), N. Viovy (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France), D. Khvorostyanov (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Palaiseau, France), F. Essl (University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria), I. Chuine (Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, Montpellier, France), A. Colette (Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France), J. Storkey (Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom), M. A. Epstein (Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria)

Abstract details
Impacts of Climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

L. Hamaoui-Laguel (1) ; R. Vautard (2) ; L. Liu (3) ; F. Solmon (3) ; N. Viovy (2) ; D. Khvorostyanov (4) ; F. Essl (5) ; I. Chuine (6) ; A. Colette (1) ; J. Storkey (7) ; MA. Epstein (8)
(1) Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France; (2) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France; (3) International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; (4) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, CNRS, Palaiseau, France; (5) University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; (6) Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, Montpellier, France; (7) Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, United Kingdom; (8) Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria

Abstract content

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive weed native to North America producing very allergenic pollen which causes serious health effects like rhinitis, asthma and atopic dermatitis. It was introduced in Europe since the mid-19th century and invaded large areas during the last few decades (Pannonian plain, Northern Italy and South-Eastern France). Furthermore, there is a high potential for ragweed spread in current suitable habitats and future changes in Climate and land use may increase the spread by altering the climatic niche determined by physiological thresholds or affecting cropping patterns. The rate of spread depends also on seed dispersal due to natural or anthropogenic processes and the efficiency of ragweed eradication policies. However, ragweed airborne pollen concentrations depend not only on plant infestation, but also on phenology, pollen production, release, dispersion and atmospheric transport.

Here, we present the first integrated modelling framework, based on an explicit representation of plant phenology, pollen production, and release to the atmosphere, to assess future changes in airborne pollen concentration under scenarios of climate and land use changes and seed dispersal. Two model suites are implemented differing in the atmospheric processing and in the driving climate models. The CHIMERE suite uses the Chemistry-Transport Model CHIMERE model, forced by regional climate simulations from the WRF model downscaling of the IPSL-CM5A-MR model. The RegCM suite uses the RegCM4 regional climate model forced by global climate simulations from HadGEM CMIP5.

We performed three types of simulations (50 km grid covering Europe), which are hind-cast (2000–2012), historical (1986–2005) and future (2041–2060) simulations. The hindcast simulations, forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis, are performed to calibrate and evaluate the modelling chain. The historical simulations are carried out using calibrated ragweed density to serve as a reference simulation for the future.  We considered two contrasting RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) climate change scenarios including a high-end (RCP 8.5) and moderate (RCP 4.5) climate change scenarios and three seed dispersal scenarios (reference, slow and rapid).

We show that airborne pollen concentrations may drastically increase in 2050 by a factor of 4.5 under high-end (RCP 8.5) and 4.0 under moderate (RCP 4.5) climate change scenarios. This upsurge is largely dependent on the seed dispersal rate, making this increase vary in a range of factors from 2 to 12 according to the range of formulated assumptions. We estimate that about one third of the projected increases of pollen concentration are due to the on-going seed dispersal within the present niche regardless of climate change. Climate change will be responsible of two thirds of the future pollen loads increase. It will extend the habitat suitability for ragweed in Northern and Eastern Europe and result in higher pollen concentrations in established ragweed areas mostly due to a larger primary production with increasing CO2. Therefore, future increase of airborne pollen concentrations will be caused by the combined effects of climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas.

Our results indicate that controlling the current European ragweed invasion will become more difficult in the future as the environment will be more favourable for ragweed growth and spread, highlighting the need for the development of effective and regionally co-ordinated eradication programmes.