Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Tuesday 7 July - 18:30-19:30 UPMC Jussieu - Posters (Block 24)

Posters (list of concerned Posters available here)

Social Event

The New Planetary Energetic Budget, the New Climate and the New Water Cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean and its edges

M.-S. Karrouk (University Hassan II, Climatology Research Centre (CEREC), Casablanca, Morocco)

Abstract details
The New Planetary Energetic Budget, the New Climate and the New Water Cycle in the North Atlantic Ocean and its edges

MS. Karrouk (1)
(1) University Hassan II, Climatology Research Centre (CEREC), Geography, Climatology, Casablanca, Morocco

Abstract content

Global warming has now reached the energetic phase of H2O's return to the ground after the saturation of the atmosphere in evaporation since the 80s and 90s of the last century, which were characterized by severe droughts, mainly in Africa.

This phase is the result of the accumulation of thermal energy exchanges in the Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere system that resulted in the thrust reversal of the energy balance toward the poles. This situation is characterized by a new thermal distribution: above the ocean, the situation is more in surplus compared to the mainland, or even opposite when the balance is negative on the land, and in the atmosphere, warm thermal advection easily reach the North Pole (planetary crests), as well as cold advection push deep into North Africa and the Gulf of Mexico (planetary valleys).

This "New Ground Energy Balance" establishes a "New Meridian Atmospheric Circulation (MAC)" with an undulating character throughout the year, including the winter characterized by intense latitudinal very active energy exchanges between the surplus areas (tropical) and the deficit (polar) on the one hand, and the atmosphere, the ocean and the continent on the other.

The excess radiation balance increases the potential evaporation of the atmosphere and provides a new geographical distribution of H2O worldwide: the excess water vapor is easily converted by cold advection (polar vortex) to heavy rains that cause floods or snow storms that paralyze the normal functioning of human activities, which creates many difficulties for users and leaves damage and casualties, but ensures water availability missing since a long time in many parts of the world, in Africa, Europe and America.

The new thermal distribution reorganizes the geography of atmospheric pressure: the ocean energy concentration is transmitted directly to the atmosphere, and the excess torque is pushed northward. The Azores anticyclone is strengthened and is a global lock by the Atlantic ridge at Greenland, which imposes on the jet stream a positive ripple, very strongly marked poleward, bringing cosmic cold advection of polar air masses winter over from Europe to North Africa. Hence the enormous meridian heat exchanges north-south, and south-north.

This new spatial thermal provision therefore imposes on the jet-stream a positive ripple on the North Atlantic (Greenland) and eastern Pacific (Alaska); this is the cause of the heat and drought of California, followed by negative waves in eastern US, and Europe.

This is the "New Atmospheric Circulation" predominantly "Meridian", due to the "New Climate" caused by global warming.

Comparative assessment of surface fluxes from different sources: a framework based on probability distributions

S. Gulev (RAS Institute for Oceanology, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract details
Comparative assessment of surface fluxes from different sources: a framework based on probability distributions

S. Gulev (1)
(1) RAS Institute for Oceanology, SAIL, Moscow, Russia

Abstract content

Surface turbulent heat fluxes from modern era and first generation reanalyses (NCEP-DOE, ERA-Interim, MERRA NCEP-CFSR, JRA) as well as from satellite products (SEAFLUX, IFREMER, HOAPS) were intercompared using framework of probability distributions for sensible and latent heat fluxes. For approximation of probability distributions and estimation of extreme flux values Modified Fisher-Tippett (MFT) distribution has been used. Besides mean flux values, consideration is given to the comparative analysis of (i) parameters of the MFT probability density functions (scale and location), (ii) extreme flux values corresponding high order percentiles of fluxes (e.g. 99th and higher) and (iii) fractional contribution of extreme surface flux events in the total surface turbulent fluxes integrated over months and seasons. The latter was estimated using both fractional distribution derived from MFT and empirical estimates based upon occurrence histograms. The strongest differences in the parameters of probability distributions of surface fluxes and extreme surface flux values between different reanalyses are found in the western boundary current extension regions and high latitudes, while the highest differences in the fractional contributions of surface fluxes may occur in mid ocean regions being closely associated with atmospheric synoptic dynamics. Generally, satellite surface flux products demonstrate relatively stronger extreme fluxes compared to reanalyses, even in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes where data assimilation input in reanalyses is quite dense compared to the Southern Ocean regions. Our assessment also discriminated different reanalyses and satellite products with respect to their ability to quantify the role of extreme surface turbulent fluxes in forming ocean heat release in different regions.

Changes in global energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere and surface 1985-2014

R. Allan (Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom), C. L. Liu (Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom), N. Loeb (NASA Langley Research Centre, Hampton, United States of America), M. Palmer (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), D. Smith (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), P. Hyder (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Changes in global energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere and surface 1985-2014

R. Allan (1) ; CL. Liu (1) ; N. Loeb (2) ; M. Palmer (3) ; D. Smith (3) ; P. Hyder (3)
(1) Department of Meteorology, University of reading, Reading, United Kingdom; (2) NASA Langley Research Centre, Hampton, United States of America; (3) Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth’s atmosphere (N) are reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the period 1985-2012 we estimate N=0.47±0.54 Wm−2 (uncertainties at 90% confidence level). Variability relates primarily to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and El Niño Southernn Oscillation with good agreement (r~0.6) between the monthly reconstruction and atmospheric simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings. Combining with a simple energy balance climate model we argue that increased ocean heat uptake below the mixed layer is required to reconcile changes in N and surface temperature since 1985.

 

The surface net fluxes can be estimated based upon the reconstructed N and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The energy divergences over the oceans are adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multi-annual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean. The inter-hemispheric heating differences and precipitation biases are also discussed.

 

 

( This abstract should go to the folowing seesion:

The Earth's energy imbalance and exchanges at the atmosphere-ocean interface: From fundamental research to societal concern

Conveners: Karina von Schuckmann, Ccile Guieu, Kevin Trenberth, Emilie Breviere)

Uncoupling the ocean and sea-ice from the atmosphere: Challenges of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs)

A. M. Treguier (CNRS, Plouzane, France), G. Danabasoglu (NCAR, Boulder, United States of America), S. Marsland (CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia), S. Griffies (NOAA - GFDL, Princeton, United States of America), W. Omdp Members (CLIVAR ICGPO, Qingdao, China)

Abstract details
Uncoupling the ocean and sea-ice from the atmosphere: Challenges of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs)

AM. Treguier (1) ; G. Danabasoglu (2) ; S. Marsland (3) ; S. Griffies (4) ; W. Omdp Members (5)
(1) CNRS, LPO, IUEM, Plouzane, France; (2) NCAR, Boulder, United States of America; (3) CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia; (4) NOAA - GFDL, Princeton, United States of America; (5) CLIVAR ICGPO, State oceanographic administration first institute of oceanography, Qingdao, China

Abstract content

Earth system models are complex, and the interactions and nonlinear feedbacks between their different components are poorly understood. Climate predictions benefit from an independent validation of each component model, before coupling them together. Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Projects, which involve forcing the atmospheric models with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea-ice cover, have existed since the early days of IPCC. In contrast, a similar exercise for ocean – sea-ice models has been difficult to implement, because there are long time scale interactions between the ocean-ice-atmosphere system and there are large uncertainties in observations within the atmospheric boundary layer.

 

Under the umbrella of the World Climate Research Program’s (WCRP) Climate and Ocean Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Project, the Ocean Model Development Panel (OMDP) has worked for over a decade to develop a meaningful validation of ocean – sea-ice models for our present climate and has produced a common protocol: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs). CORE consists of running ocean – sea-ice coupled models with a fixed atmospheric state (observed air temperature, humidity, boundary layer winds, downward radiation, precipitation, and river runoff). This atmospheric state has been obtained in such a way to produce realistic globally averaged heat and freshwater fluxes when combined with observed SST. Existing atmospheric reanalysis products such as NCEP or ERA are not yet suitable for this purpose without corrections. Prescribing the air temperature, rather than heat flux, is necessary in order to allow the feedbacks between the evolving SSTs and the air-sea heat fluxes: this feedback is essential to ensure the stability of the ocean-ice system.

 

The main challenge in the CORE framework stems from the lack of sufficient feedbacks in the water cycle. If evaporation increases over the ocean, the extra water is likely to return to the ocean as rain or runoff on long time scales. Because this nonlocal feedback is neglected when the atmospheric state is fixed, it has been necessary to introduce an arbitrary relaxation of the surface salinity to observations. In part due to this salinity forcing, CORE simulations subject to the same atmospheric state exhibit very different large scale ocean circulations: this finding underlines our limited capacity to fully validate the ocean – sea-ice components of earth system models used for climate scenarios, independently of the atmosphere. Nevertheless, a recent suite of CORE experiments carried out with over 20 different models brings new insights into the reproducibility and robustness of essential climate variables such as regional sea level patterns and the North Atlantic overturning circulation.

Using agro weather tool for enhanced productivity under climate change and variability by communities in Kenya

J. Wamari (Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Using agro weather tool for enhanced productivity under climate change and variability by communities in Kenya

J. Wamari (1)
(1) Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, National Agricultural Research Laboratories, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

The farming communities in Kenya produce 65% of Kenya’s exports and offer employment to 80% of the population therefore ensuring food security. A survey from three counties of Machakos, Nakuru and Kakamega predominantly growing Maize-Beans-Pigeon peas, Maize-Beans-Irish potatoes and Maize-Beans-Sweet potatoes respectively showed heavy reliance on rainfall (>90). These rains have however become increasingly variable spatially shattering for example the average maize yields of 3.1, 10.4 and 5 bags-1 acre at the respective sites.  Spatial and temporal changes of seasonality under climate change and variability call for changing methods to maintain these cropping systems and alternative varieties and agronomic practices as adaptation strategies for sustainable realization yield variations.

The information required by these communities need to be accurate and timely and manageably packaged and presented in easily interpretable and understandable manner. It should additionally factor indigenous knowhow and include insurance possibilities to enable confidence in its utility. An agro-weather tool using the mobile phone owned by a majority of rural folk jointly developed for this purpose. It involved collaboration with World Bank as development partner, Government of Kenya lead-departments of agriculture and meteorology, mobile line service provider Safaricom and local agro-dealers targeting 5000 households in its pilot phase and was successfully unveiled for Embu County in 2014. The tool targeted coffee and tea as cash crops and maize and beans subsistence crops dominantly grown in this county and is scheduled for up-scaling in other areas.

Beneficial information relayed included daily, weekly and seasonal forecasts, possible disasters, climate stress severity with direct and indirect severe impacts on crop production. It also offered interventional measures of suitable varieties and their productivity potential and appropriate farming activities to be undertaken to reduce, adapt and/or mitigate the negative impacts related to weather and climate.

The use the tool will be out scaled to other counties but also for pastoral communities who will require weather-related information on areas of depressed rainfall, periods of availability, frequency/resurgence of pastures/forage and the likely occurrence of killer diseases and environmental degradation. Also necessary is weather information that would cause floods/drought that would drown/kill livestock and potential benefits of using alternative methodologies.

Challenges of scales

S. Huq (International Center for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Dhaka, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Challenges of scales

S. Huq (1)
(1) International Center for Climate Change and Development (ICCCAD), Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract content

There are several aspects of governance related to adaptation to climate change that need to be addressed to ensure equity and fairness in the way adaptation is implemented on the ground. Firstly, at the global level, there is the issue of governing climate change funding for adaptation in an equitable manner to ensure that the most vulnerable countries and communities are prioritised for receiving adaptation funds.

Similarly, at national level, it is important for national decision makers to also prioritise the needs of the most vulnerable communities within each country. This is true for both developing as well as developed countries.

One of the main issue in current climate governance is that the poorest communities within countries, and the poorest countries globally, possess a relatively less important voice in decision making at global and national scales. Hence, in order to adapt successfully to the adverse impacts of climate change, the empowerment of the most vulnerable within the climate governance system is a precondition. 

Connecting the Dots: An Initiative on Communicating Complex Climate Science to Local Communities through Climate Change Services

S. K. Amsad Ibrahim Khan (Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell (TNSCCC), Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India), H. Malleshappa (Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell (TNSCCC), Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India), M. Jayanthi. (Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell (TNSCCC), Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India)

Abstract details
Connecting the Dots: An Initiative on Communicating Complex Climate Science to Local Communities through Climate Change Services

SK. Amsad Ibrahim Khan (1) ; H. Malleshappa (1) ; M. Jayanthi. (1)
(1) Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell (TNSCCC), Department of Environment, Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

Abstract content

Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change addresses the importance of climate change communication and engaging stakeholders in this issue. It highlights the responsibility of participating countries at the national, sub-national and local levels, to ensure public access to information and to promote public participation. However, this is a challenging task particulaly for developing countries like India despite of other emergent and on-going developmental challenges. In this context, this article addresses an initiative taken by the Government of Tamil Nadu, India at the local level to address the global challenge of climate change, in a case study approach. The main objective of this contribution is to showcase a method/approach to connect the dots i.e. climate change "science-policy-society" and build capacity by communicating complex climate change science and its information at local level through effective climate change services, particularly, from the perspective of developing country's initatives on tackling climate change. Thus, realizing this urgent importance, Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Cell (TNSCCC) at the Department of Environment, Government of Tamil Nadu, India has laid a road map as "Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Services (TNSCCS)" based on the guidelines of the Global Framework for Climate Services of World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This has been iniated as envisaged in Tamil Nadu’s State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) in par with India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). TNSCCS acts as a central hub of information, data and reports about climate change of entire Tamil Nadu State. It is considered as one of the major principal mechanisms through which information about the climate of the past, present and future is routinely archived, analyzed, modeled and exchanged. Tamil Nadu State Climate Change Knoweldge Management System (TNSCCKMS) has been established and serves as a store house of locally observed and projected climate change information for the state of Tamil Nadu. Importantly, it provides a “web-based platform” and “user friendly interface” to disseminate and exchange climate change information for various communities ranging from bureaucrats, policy planners, decision makers to farmers, fishermen, students, children, general public and others. It is hoped that the information gleaned from the above mentioned method/approach of climate change services witness how best the complex climate change science can be tailored and communicated at local level. Importantly, it showcases a method/approach on capacity building through effecitive climate change information and services from global to local level.

 

Decadal climate information for improved decision-making and resilience in small-scale farming systems in Africa: Lessons from East and Southern Africa

A. Nyamwanza (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract details
Decadal climate information for improved decision-making and resilience in small-scale farming systems in Africa: Lessons from East and Southern Africa

A. Nyamwanza (1)
(1) University of Cape Town, African Climate and Development Initiative, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

Small-scale farming systems in Africa are facing increasingly erratic and variable climate dynamics, in addition to other multiple and reinforcing non-climatic stresses and shocks. Effective responses and ultimately resilience to these adversities require, among other factors, access to and use of adequate climate information for the coming seasons and years to enable players within these systems to make informed, timely and appropriate decisions not only in the short term, but also in the medium to long term. Climate information is used in agriculture on a range of timescales, from days (weather), months (seasonal outlooks) to decades (climate change scenarios) (Hellmuth et al. 2011). In most African countries, adaptation to climate risk has focused either on the seasonal timescale or the assessment of climate change impacts several decades into the future. Awareness of and adaptation to climate risk on the decadal timescale (up to 10 years) has received less attention. Yet much policy, planning and investment decision-making falls into this time horizon, especially in areas of importance to small-scale farming systems in developing countries such as farm planning cycles, introduction of new varieties and the setting up of such projects as catchment-wide infrastructure for irrigation and water storage (Goddard et al. 2010; Stafford-Smith et al. 2011, Vermeulen, 2012). There is also increasing evidence that climate change is altering the likelihood of extreme events that impact on agriculture within the decadal timescale (IPCC 2012). It is against this background that this analysis explores the utility of climate information in small-scale farming systems in Africa on the decadal timescale. Using cases of small-scale farming systems in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania, the mid-Zambezi Valley Region of Zimbabwe, and the Southern Region of Malawi, the analysis shows decadal climate information as potentially providing opportunities for innovative, flexible and proactive decision-making in response to projected climate and related dynamics. The analysis shows that although farmers will be the major beneficiaries of decadal climate information, other players, particularly service providers and intermediaries, also stand to gain thus providing a holistic perspective in dealing with the decision-making context of small-scale farming systems in Africa. The paper however also points on the need for building institutional capacity vis-à-vis coming up with stronger knowledge and information networks between climate scientists, policy makers and local communities as well as attending to issues of credibility, legitimacy and scale in the production and dissemination of decadal climate information in Africa so as to ensure uptake and appropriate use. The discussion, therefore, brings to the fore the need for the recognition of the increasing importance and role of decadal climate information vis-à-vis decision making towards resilient and adaptive small-scale farming systems in Africa.

Drias, the futures of climate: a service for the benefit of adaptation

Drias, the futures of climate: a service for the benefit of adaptation J.-M. Soubeyroux (Météo-France, Toulouse, France), P. Josse (Météo France, Toulouse, France), R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France), C. Pagé (CERFACS, Toulouse, France), S. Planton (Météo-France, Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
Drias, the futures of climate: a service for the benefit of adaptation

JM. Soubeyroux (1) ; P. Josse (2) ; R. Vautard (3) ; C. Pagé (4) ; S. Planton (5)
(1) Météo-France, Dclim, Toulouse, France; (2) Météo France, Direction de la Climatologie et des Services Climatiques, Toulouse, France; (3) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France; (4) CERFACS, Toulouse, France; (5) Météo-France, CNRM, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

The project Drias for ‘Deliver Regional climate scenarios for Impacts and Adaptation of our environment and Society’ was built with the basic idea that a facility was now needed for climate information delivery. Drias was funded by the Management and Impact of Climate Change programme of the French Ministry for Sustainable Development. It focuses on existing French regional climate projections obtained from national modelling groups: IPSL, CERFACS, and CNRM and was coordinated by the Department of Climatology at Météo-France, which is in charge of climatological operations and services

The resulting portal, opened in 2012, offers easy access to data and products, including a quick-look discovery, as well as the associated expertise to facilitate impact and adaptation studies:

  • Several greenhouse gas emission scenarios, using different regional climate models and downscaling methods, because it is critical that users work with the idea that climate projections have to be addressed in a probabilistic mode
  • Standard formats, easy access, quick looks and simple products for a wide range of users, baring in mind that many communities do not share the technical skills of climate modellers
  • Expertise and guidance, especially addressing the various sources of uncertainty, and promoting best practices and know-how – one of the first requirements of users, as shown in every user needs survey.

The Drias web portal comprises three main areas: Delivery, Support, and Discovery. The Discovery area contains general information for a wide range of people, allowing them to grasp climate scenarios and visualize outputs. In the Support area, a range of documents is offered to help users make the best use of available climate information (glossary, description of methods and climate models, frequently asked questions). A hotline mechanism involving experts is also implemented at this level. The Delivery area enables users to order, in digitized format, data and products they have identified in the Discovery area.

A user committee was created at the beginning of the project, to help define effective and strategic needs, evaluate prototypes using beta testers, validate the choices made by the project team, and ensure that Drias will continue to meet user’s expectations.

Drias is positioned at the interface between actors. A layer of intermediate users – or translators – is appearing in the form of engineers from the meteorological service, or from private companies already deploying activities in the field of environment, or climate experts hired by local organizations.

The partnerships around Drias must also be highlighted. Nothing could be done without the research groups or the meteorological service. A strong tribute must be paid to the governing bodies that have supported the initiative, and have placed it high on the agenda at the ministerial level, making Drias one of the most prominent actions of the French National Plan for Adaptation.

New indices, dataset and other enhances have been gradually introduced for the last three years, with confidence intervals instead of the single scenario originally, results of impact studies on water resources (ClimSec project) and more recently with the newest regionalized scenarios for France, based on the ‘Representative Concentration Pathways.

But can we say that we are on the right track? Will our co-citizens be more convinced because such facilities are now in place? Undoubtedly there are many aspects of the human conscience that must be activated in order to reach the appropriate level of commitment regarding climate change. The real challenge for climate services may also appear in the training and education arena, and definitely has to deal with a wide range of human and political sciences.

Role of social media networking in Climate policies Awareness in Sub- Saharan Africa

M. Atombo Aleya (Solidarity for Rural Development and Local Governance in DRC(Tshwane University of Technology), Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract details
Role of social media networking in Climate policies Awareness in Sub- Saharan Africa

M. Atombo Aleya (1)
(1) Solidarity for Rural Development and Local Governance in DRC(Tshwane University of Technology), Pretoria, South Africa

Abstract content

Climate policies awareness and/or knowledge are much required for the based-communities to mitigate the risk based on climate change and adaptation. In this respect, to spread awareness and/or knowledge of climate policies amongst African population by using social media is critical in raising ranks of awareness on the consequences related climate change. This research surveys the role of Social media networking in contributing to climate change awareness in rural areas especially; African population living in sub-Saharan Africa where, the impact of climate change disrupts subsistence farming activities. In fact, Economy in Africa is mainly focused on agriculture and peasant activities. On the one hand, many Africans are still unaware of climate policies developed   neither in the national or international scale that fit with climate change. In the other hand, Aboriginal people living in forest areas have trouble with the acceptance of certain prohibitions to hunt and harvest the wild fruits in parks and other protected areas. That is why, This study found out that, The ubiquitous of internet facilities in African continent based on mobile application are tools that can facilitate information propagation and communication, even though, these technologies practice and abilities are utilised independently by the hand users. As the rural people are vulnerable to climate change, they are also considered as key players for emerging climate policies to mitigate and cope with climate change’s effects. It is a need to use Social media networking in a number of operative ways to enhance climate policies awareness or knowledge amongst them. Thus, Climate policies awareness remains the foundation of all other answers to climate change.Therefore, the main objective of this research is to interest African governments to adopt the information and communication technologies such as social media networking to conduct a viral campaign enhancing knowledge and awareness related climate policies and sustainable development in order to foster the based-communities to mitigate the risk based on climate change and to support farmers’ abilities to adapt to climate change. As for the methodology that is used, this study employs both qualitative and quantitative research techniques and data are collected through semi-structured interviews with some sub-Saharan African small-scale farmers, local governments and non-profit organizations focusing on climate change and furthermore, questionnaires will be designed based on Five-point Likert scale on an interval level ranging from ‘‘strongly disagree’’ to ‘‘strongly agree”).

Key words: Social Media Networking, Awareness, Climate Policy and Sub-Saharan Africa

The WASCAL regional climate simulations for West Africa - how to add value to existing climate projections

D. Heinzeller (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), C. Klein (Augsburg University, Augsburg, Germany), D. Dieng (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), G. Smiatek (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), M. B. Sylla (WASCAL Competence Center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), J. Bliefernicht (Augsburg University, Augsburg, Germany), H. Kunstmann (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany)

Abstract details
The WASCAL regional climate simulations for West Africa - how to add value to existing climate projections

D. Heinzeller (1) ; C. Klein (2) ; D. Dieng (1) ; G. Smiatek (1) ; MB. Sylla (3) ; J. Bliefernicht (2) ; H. Kunstmann (1)
(1) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (2) Augsburg University, Institute of geography, Augsburg, Germany; (3) WASCAL Competence Center, Climate Modeling and Climate Change, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Abstract content

With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. The below-average rainfall in large parts of West Africa during the previous and the current monsoon season and the associated scarcity of food and fresh water highlight the importance of accurate predictions of future monsoon circulation for the people of this region.

WASCAL (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) is a large-scale research-focused program designed to help tackle this challenge and thereby enhance the resilience of human and environmental systems to climate change and increased variability. An integral part of the climate services offered by WASCAL is the provisioning of a new set of high resolution, ensemble-based regional climate change scenarios with a special focus on West Africa. These are thought to complement and provide added value t current medium-resolution climate change simulations for the region such as the CORDEX-Africa projections. The WASCAL climate change simulation experiments utilize a multi-model ensemble approach to refine RCP4.5 scenarios provided by three state-of-the-art global circulation models (MPI-ESM, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2) using three regional climate models (WRF, COSMO-CLM, RegCM). Spanning an area from 25˚W to 25˚E and 5˚S to 25˚N, and providing a large number of variables at 3-hourly time steps at a horizontal resolution of 12km, these regional climate simulations will be used to assess amongst others the impact of climate and land use change on temperature, precipitation, and on onset and duration of the rainy season.

The credibility of regional climate simulations over West Africa stands and falls with the ability to reproduce its key climatic feature, the West African Monsoon. This seasonal shift in large-scale wind patterns plays a pivotal role in every day's life, and any shift caused by climate change will greatly impact the future of this region. In our analysis, we therefore focus on the representation of the WAM in the regionally downscaled models. For the validation of the models, ERA-Interim re-analysis data is used as lateral boundary condition for the period from 1980 to 2013. We verify the models against observational data from gridded climate observational products such as GPCC, TRMM, and CRU. In addition, we employ a novel gridded precipitation database for the West African region, which is compiled from daily and monthly in-situ observations merged from various global and regional meteorological archives (GHCN, GSOD, AMMA, GLOWA) and from precipitation data provided by the national weather services and the novel WASCAL observation network. 

In this contribution, we present the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate projections and provide information on the availability of the data and its dissemination to the community. We discuss the model performance over the validation period for two of the three regional climate models employed, the Weather Research and Forecasting tool (WRF) and the COSMO model in CLimate Mode (COSMO-CLM), and give details about the novel precipitation database used to verify the models. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained from the WRF model runs for the periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100.

Spatiotemporal Visualization Method for Interrelation-based Analysis of Agriculture's GHG Emissions and Agricultural Productivity in Asian Region Using the 5D World Map System

B. Ahmad Muzaffar (Keio University, Yokohama, Japan), A. Siti Nor Khuzaimah (Keio University, Yokohama, Japan), S. Shiori (Keio University, Fujisawa, Japan), K. Yasushi (Keio University, Fujisawa, Japan)

Abstract details
Spatiotemporal Visualization Method for Interrelation-based Analysis of Agriculture's GHG Emissions and Agricultural Productivity in Asian Region Using the 5D World Map System

B. Ahmad Muzaffar (1) ; A. Siti Nor Khuzaimah (1) ; S. Shiori (2) ; K. Yasushi (2)
(1) Keio University, Graduate school of science and technology, Yokohama, Japan; (2) Keio University, Graduate school of media and governance, Fujisawa, Japan

Abstract content

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions originated from agricultural activities have increased approximately two times over the past five decades. Mitigation and adaptation countermeasures must be taken to reduce or slow down the increment of GHG level as a result of unhealthy agriculture practices especially in most developing countries. Conversely, further increment in GHG emissions results in climate change and eventually affects the agricultural sustainability and food security.

 

To understand the complex system between GHG emissions and agriculture productivity, a regional and historical analysis is compulsory as well as for finding more viable solutions. By applying the 5D World Map system, we demonstrate spatiotemporal visualization to analyze the interrelation between agriculture’s GHG emissions and agricultural productivity. In this analysis, we focus on Asian region since it is one of the largest contributors of global GHG emissions from agriculture sector itself.

 

The most significant contribution of this research is to unveil the interrelation-based analysis between GHG emissions and agriculture, considering the Asian countries geographical aspect and historical data records. We mapped the pre-sorted text data of Asian countries in Eastern Asia, South-Central Asia, South-East Asia and Western Asia from 1963 to 2013. Then, we visualized and analyzed the data by comparing various attributes,  namely; types of GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) and annual crops yield. As results, we are able to observe that the spatial pattern of CO2 and CH4 emissions are relatively similar but slightly different in N2O emission. The temporally increasing trend of GHG emissions in some countries is observed as expected, as well as the decreasing trend in other countries, while we discovered that the spatial pattern of crop yield is contrary to expectations. Also, we emphasize the fact from real cases that the interrelation between crops yield and GHG emissions could be observed explicitly by the spatiotemporal visualization of the data. As an insight from these results, we  consider to classify these countries into four clusters: 1) cluster with high agricultural productivity and high GHG emissions, 2) cluster with high agricultural productivity but lower GHG emissions, 3) cluster with low agricultural productivity and low GHG emissions and 4) cluster with low agricultural  productivity but higher GHG emissions.

 

In this research, the visualization of specific GHG emission density by each country and its’ crop yield were made possible through the 5D World Map system. The index ranking of each country in each attribute is also visualized. Besides, new knowledge and possibilities existing between climate change and agriculture sector are discovered and extracted from the visualization. Through this analysis, the countries which appear as more effective or less effective in both interrelated agricultural productivity and environmental management were clarified in this knowledge-sharing system for encouraging a deeper analytic process of regional policy making in agricultural GHG emissions and future agriculture management.

Appraising the climate services accessible to indigenous communities in Uganda

A.R. Mwangu (Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda)

Abstract details
Appraising the climate services accessible to indigenous communities in Uganda

AR. Mwangu (1)
(1) Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda

Abstract content

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges of our generation. Scientists predict that it will even have more adverse effects on the population in the future. Studies indicate that climate change impacts most affect people in the developing countries especially the women, elderly and children because these groups have little access to the information on climate change, they are illiterate and are concealed in poverty.  Yet a big constituent of these groups especially the women are by default key resource managers whose knowledge and actions are critical in environment and natural resource management. Climate services are seldom offered in Uganda and as a result climate change is as much abstract to a wide section of people. This study will urge that in circumstances where climate services have been offered they have not been conceptualized for comprehension by the masses. Climate change continues to be portrayed as a highly scientific phenomenon far and above the indigenous communities yet they are the most affected by its impacts. The examples used in talking about climate change are distant and unfamiliar that people hardly make sense of them. Besides climate change is only linked to anthropogenic activities yet natural phenomenon like local land-use changes can have a serious impact.

With data collected through Focus Group Discussions and Key Informant Interviews, this study urges that robust climate services are urgently needed in Uganda to tackle the serious adverse effects of climate change that is choking the local communities. Disastrous effects like floods and landslides as a result of heavy rains in the Mountain Elgon region have continuously led to fatalities yet the local communities are unaware and cannot devise adaptive and mitigation strategies. Correspondingly the seasons have changed but the local farmers continue to plan their planting seasons basing on the previous seasons that has eventually led to a decline in crop yields resulting into food shortages and its associated ills of malnutrition. It is critical that climate services are customized to the local situations for long lasting impact.

 

Mwangu Alex Ronald PhD candidate

Climate Information for Public Health in Africa in the context of Climate Change Adaptation

M. Thomson (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, United States of America), P. Ceccato (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, United States of America), A. Woyessa (Ethiopian Public Health Institute , Addis Ababa, Ethiopia), T. Dinku (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, United States of America), S. Connor (Liverpool University, Liverpool, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Climate Information for Public Health in Africa in the context of Climate Change Adaptation

M. Thomson (1) ; P. Ceccato (1) ; A. Woyessa (2) ; T. Dinku (1) ; S. Connor (3)
(1) International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, United States of America; (2) Ethiopian Public Health Institute , Department of bacterial, parasitic & zoonotic diseases research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; (3) Liverpool University, Geography, Liverpool, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Climate impacts on health are well established. Building climate smart and resilient communities is therefore essential in the face of climate variability and change. Climate information can play a role in helping societies to better manage health risks brought about by climate variability and change. However, for climate informed health decision-making to become an everyday reality, a broad coalition of partners focused on improved health adaptation and mitigation strategies is essential.

 

This paper describes the approach taken at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)[1] and its partners to integrate research, operational applications and capacity building alongside policy development and advocacy in the area of climate and health in Africa. The initial focus of the IRI’s health work on the development of early warning systems for climate-sensitive diseases (for example malaria and meningococcal meningitis) was built upon the institute’s applied research capacity in seasonal climate forecasting. However, over time, the agenda has broadened in response to articulated user needs for information on the past, present and future climate to also better understand the mechanisms by which climate impacts on disease, map populations at risk both geographically and by season, develop early warning systems, better understand trends in disease incidence  associated with climate shifts and improve the evaluation of the impacts of climate-sensitive interventions.

 

Central to IRI’s experience throughout has been a keen awareness that climate information and products, in Africa as elsewhere, must be relevant to the health community and development partners and reflect prioritized needs within political and donor processes, while also offering innovations grounded in relevant and reliable observational data obtained through effective, efficient, credible and transparent means.  The relevance of this approach to infectious disease, health outcomes of disasters and nutrition will be presented.

 

[1] IRI is a WHO/PAHO Collaborating Center for Malaria Early Warning and Other Climate Sensitive Diseases.

The Contribution of Climate Services to Climate Change Adaptation through the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

F. Lucio (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland)

Abstract details
The Contribution of Climate Services to Climate Change Adaptation through the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

F. Lucio (1)
(1) World Meteorological Organization, Global Framework for Climate Services Office, Geneva, Switzerland

Abstract content

The Contribution of Climate Services to Climate Change Adaptation through the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) 

 

Filipe D.F. Lúcio & Veronica Grasso

Global Framework for Climagte Services Office

World Meteorological Organization

Tel: +41 22 730 8579

Email: flucio@wmo.int, vgrasso@wmo.int

 

 

Climate determines the extent to which human kind can sustain livelihoods and well-being. Thus, as the effects of climate change are becoming more evident and acute, the need for effective climate services is greater than ever before. Climate services here are considered to be the provision of climate information to assist decision-making in climate sensitive-sectors. Climate services require a range of activities from generating to providing information based on past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems. These services can range from simple information such as historical climate data sets to more complex products such as predictions on monthly, seasonal and decadal time frames. Ultimately, climate services provide information and expert advice that help users make the right decisions for climate change adaptation.

 

Seasonal to multiyear climate forecasting has advanced to a point where it can now provide actionable information. Sophisticated climate services combine climate forecasts with information from other sectors to inform decisions on public health, agriculture, water management, disaster risk and other climate-sensitive sectors.

 

Recognizing the value and contribution of climate services, the international community established the Global Framework for Climate services (GFCS) at the Third World Climate Conference (WCC-3, 2009) to promote operational climate services at the national and regional levels. The GFCS aims at facilitating the development and use of services to ensure that best efforts are made to reduce the impacts of climate-related disasters and to adapt to climate change. It is catalyzing a paradigm shift from supply-driven service provision to the creation of services driven by user needs, by orienting scientific research towards practical applications to respond to those needs. Building on past and current climate service initiatives, it is enabling new services to be developed to increase the value and access to climate knowledge products for those who need them the most.

 

Climate services underpin climate action and adaptation in climate sensitive sectors; contribute to enhancing disaster preparedness and planning for effective response and to allow societies to build back better after a disaster.

 

An essential starting point for adaptation is a quantitative assessment combining characterization of hazards with vulnerabilities to derive specific services to various users. This is often hampered by the capabilities to conduct effective analysis of past data and assess changing characteristics and trends of hazards in light of climate change to support risk and impact assessment.

 

This paper provides an account of how the GFCS is supporting countries in the development and use of climate services for climate change adaptation.

 

Typhoon Bopha: Impact of an extreme tropical cyclone on the atmospheric water and energy cycle

T. Garot (Laboratoire Atmosphère Millieux Observations Spatiales, Guyancourt, France), H. Brogniez, (Laboratoire Atmosphère Millieux Observations Spatiales, Guyancourt, France), N. Viltard, (Laboratoire Atmosphère Millieux Observations Spatiales, Guyancourt, France)

Abstract details
Typhoon Bopha: Impact of an extreme tropical cyclone on the atmospheric water and energy cycle

T. Garot (1) ; H. Brogniez, (1) ; N. Viltard, (1)
(1) Laboratoire Atmosphère Millieux Observations Spatiales, Guyancourt, France

Abstract content

In a context of global warming, theory and modeling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures. It is therefore important to better study the extreme cyclones, which could become the average case. Typhoon Bopha formed on November 25 and dissipated on December 9, 2012. It was the strongest tropical cyclone to ever hit the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, making landfall as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 280 km/h. Bopha caused substantial damage to Mindanao, leaving behind hundreds of thousands of homeless and more than 500 fatal casualties. During the life cycle of the typhoon, the Megha-Tropiques satellite provided 2 to 5 sampling of the tropical atmosphere per day, thanks to its low inclination orbit (20°). At that time, the two microwave radiometers SAPHIR and MADRAS were both performing measurements thus giving the opportunity to investigate (i) how the typhoon impacted the atmospheric humidity of its environment and (ii) the temporal evolution of its rain field. For this purpose, three different levels of upper tropospheric humidity retrieved from SAPHIR, rain rates and releases of total latent heat estimated from MADRAS were monitored along the storm track. We will discuss the mean behavior of the typhoon that shows strong lagged oscillations of humidity and convection during its life cycle and deepens its spatial asymmetries and their relationship with the nearby environment. This analysis was completed with the use of the traking algorithm TOOCAN that allows to study how each individual convective clusters contributed to the life cycle of the typhoon.

Congo Basin precipitation : understanding sources and variability

E. Dyer (University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada), D. Jones, (University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada), D. Noone, (Oregon State University, Corvallis, United States of America), J. Nusbaumer, (University of Colorado, Boulder, United States of America)

Abstract details
Congo Basin precipitation : understanding sources and variability

E. Dyer (1) ; D. Jones, (1) ; D. Noone, (2) ; J. Nusbaumer, (3)
(1) University of Toronto, Department of physics, Toronto, Canada; (2) Oregon State University, College of earth, ocean, and atmospheric sciences, Corvallis, United States of America; (3) University of Colorado, Department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, Boulder, United States of America

Abstract content

The Congo Basin is an extremely interesting and dynamic hydrological region, spanning six countries and a range of ecosystems. It is home to over 75 million people who rely on forest and freshwater resources along with agriculture for subsistence.  It has the second largest continuous rainforest in the world, the second largest river by discharge and is one of the main regions of deep convection in the tropics. In many ways the Congo Basin is similar to the Amazon but in comparison is greatly understudied.  According to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report agreement between models in CMIP3 and CMIP5 ensembles is low in this region. CMIP5 shows better  agreement in boreal winter and worse agreement in boreal summer.  Unlike other African regions, there have not been dedicated measurement campaigns, such as the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis, and the availability of rain gauge and other in situ observations is sparse. An understanding of the current seasonality and variability in Congo Basin precipitation is a step towards good predictions of changes in the future. 

    We examine the relative importance of vapor from neighbouring regions to precipitation variability in the Congo Basin, using a new water tracer capability in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2), in which water is tagged as it is evaporated in geographically defined regions. In this approach, regional vapor tracers are tracked through phase changes until the vapor is precipitated. We employ a small ensemble using CESM1.2 in an AMIP configuration, and results are compared with the ECMWF Interim reanalysis, the Global Precipitation Climatology Project data set and the Climate Research Unit rainfall data set. The tagged water results are compared to results from a stable isotope ensemble using the same model setup, where water isotopes are tagged as they enter the atmosphere.  The results from the stable isotope enabled model are evaluated using the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation dataset. 

    A recycling ratio is calculated for the basin during dry and rainy seasons, showing a consistently high ratio with very high recycling during the dry seasons. Although local moisture evaporation does play a large role in the bulk of Congo Basin precipitation, the variability of local moisture sources cannot necessarily account for the total variability or seasonality. We find that the southern and western Indian Ocean are significant sources, providing important contributions to variability in Congo Basin precipitation. We find that the vertical structure of moisture flux convergence is important in determining the rainy seasons and is potentially an explanation for the signature of the vapor source of Congo Basin precipitation. Using tagged vapor and also tagged water isotopes to examine atmospheric vapor, important processes which characterise Congo Basin precipitation can be explored. This will contribute to a better understanding of how precipitation in the region may change in the future. 

Cold/Shoulder Season Precipitation Near 0°C

P. Groisman (UCAR at NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, United States of America), S. Gulev (RAS P.P. Shirshov Institute for Oceanology, Moscow, Russia), O. Zolina (Joseph Fourier University, Grenoble, France), R. Vose (NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, United States of America), I. Hanssen-Bauer (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway), O. Bulygina (Russian Inst. For Hydrometeorological Information, Obninsk, Russia)

Abstract details
Cold/Shoulder Season Precipitation Near 0°C

P. Groisman (1) ; S. Gulev (2) ; O. Zolina (3) ; R. Vose (4) ; I. Hanssen-Bauer (5) ; O. Bulygina (6)
(1) UCAR at NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, North Carolina, United States of America; (2) RAS P.P. Shirshov Institute for Oceanology, Moscow, Russia; (3) Joseph Fourier University, Le laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement, Grenoble, France; (4) NOAA National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, United States of America; (5) Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; (6) Russian Inst. For Hydrometeorological Information, Obninsk, Russia

Abstract content

Small changes in atmospheric conditions lead to major changes in the types or amount of near-0°C precipitation. For example, if near-surface temperatures are slightly above (below) 0°C, rain or wet snow (snow) occurs; if a slightly above-freezing inversion occurs (or not) aloft, freezing rain (snow) can reach the surface. It also needs to be recognized that solid precipitation amounts near 0°C (such as wet snow) can be the highest in a winter storm. 

With global climate change in the extratropics, the 0°C isotherm will not disappear and associated precipitation events will continue to occur.  Rain should fall farther upslope in mountainous regions, thereby increasing the risk of flooding. Alterations in temperatures, storm intensity and track will alter the likelihood and occurrence of near-0°C precipitation including freezing rain.  Weakening of the atmospheric circulation in the extratropical regions  may lead to more polar jet stream meandering that can lead to more persistent near 0°C events.  The overall warming, together with a larger influx of the water vapour in the winter atmosphere from the oceans (including ice-free portions of the Arctic Ocean) will allow more water vapour in the winter atmosphere that can increase the amount of near-0°C precipitation. And, near-0°C temperatures should generally move poleward and arrive at many locations earlier in spring or later in autumn. This could potentially affect the seasonal cycle of near-0°C precipitation. 

Despite significant progress in addressing near-0°C precipitation, it remains a challenging issue.  Kunkel et al. (2013; Bull. Amer. Meteorol.  Soc.) indicated that freezing precipitation was associated with the lowest level of understanding for both detection and attribution amongst several types of hazardous weather conditions affecting the U.S. 

The overall issue of near 0°C precipitation is linked with several phenomena. These include blizzards (just snow), rain-on-snow (both phases with a particularly importance of the precipitation interaction with pre-existed snowpack), and freezing rain and drizzle (just liquid).  The specific hazards associated with these events include: Heavy snowfall/rainfall transition around °C; Blizzards, Rain-on-snow events, Freezing rain and freezing drizzle, and  Ice load on infrastructure.

Our presenttion will overview what we know and what we do not know about changes in these phenomena and formulate major tasks to advance in understanting of near-0°C precipitation, its changes, and impact.

 

Analysis of freezing rain occurrence over Eastern Canada using regional climate model simulations

J. Thériault (Université du Québec, Montréal, Canada), M. Cholette (Université du Québec, Montréal, Canada), É. Bresson (Ouranos, Montreal, Canada), D. Paquin (Ouranos, Montreal, Canada), R. Laprise (Université du Québec, Montréal, Canada), R. De ÉLia (Ouranos, Montreal, Canada)

Abstract details
Analysis of freezing rain occurrence over Eastern Canada using regional climate model simulations

J. Thériault (1) ; M. Cholette (1) ; É. Bresson (2) ; D. Paquin (2) ; R. Laprise (1) ; R. De ÉLia (2)
(1) Université du Québec, Earth and Atmospheric sciences, Montréal, Canada; (2) Ouranos, Montreal, Canada

Abstract content

Winter storms can lead to many types of precipitation at the surface when the temperature is around 0°C. Freezing rain is the most damaging precipitation type produced during these storms. Its occurrence is associated with favourable synoptic conditions leading to a temperature inversion associated with temperatures >0°C aloft and subfreezing temperature near the surface. The overall goal of this study is to investigate the changes in the occurrence of freezing rain with our changing climate using regional climate model outputs. In particular, a study of the occurrence of freezing rain is conducted with climate simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model 5 (CRCM5) over Eastern Canada. This is achieved using existing empirical techniques commonly used to solve for the various winter precipitation types produced during storms. These techniques are based on the vertical temperature structure that affects strongly the type of precipitation reaching the surface. The results show that the model resolution impacts the vertical temperature structure. This suggests that the model resolution will impact the production of freezing rain by the model. Hence, the differences in the freezing rain occurrence diagnosed at different model resolutions are summarized. Overall, this study started addressing how well regional climate models can account of winter precipitation types to assess how their occurrences will evolve in our changing climate. 

Current and future changes in precipitation and its extremes across wet and dry regions

C. L. Liu (Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom), R. Allan (Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Current and future changes in precipitation and its extremes across wet and dry regions

CL. Liu (1) ; R. Allan (1)
(1) Department of Meteorology, University of reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Global warming is expected to enhance fluxes of fresh water between the surface and atmosphere, causing wet years to become wetter and dry years drier, with serious implications for water resource management. Defining wet and dry regions as the upper 30% and lower 70% of the precipitation totals across the tropics (30oS–30oN) each month we combine observations and climate model simulations to understand changes in the wet and dry extremes over the period 1850–2100.

 

Observed decreases in precipitation over the driest tropical land (1950–2010) are also simulated by coupled atmosphere–ocean climate models (-0.3%/decade) with trends projected to continue into the 21st century. Discrepancies between observations and simulations over the wettest land regions since 1950 are explained by decadal fluctuations in El Niño southern oscillation, the timing of which is not represented by the coupled simulations. When atmosphere-only simulations are instead driven by observed sea surface temperature they are able to adequately represent this variability over land.

 

By considering changes in the intensity distribution of precipitation, we find that global distributions of precipitation trends are dominated by spatial changes in atmospheric circulation. Unforced variability appears to dominate trends for the present day but land-surface feedbacks and secular changes in atmospheric circulation patterns become increasingly important into the future. Projected increases in extreme precipitation with warming over land are not diagnosed for the present day due to these dynamical influences which indicate that natural variability over land is not a good proxy for future climate change.

Nevertheless, the tendency for the wettest part of the tropical circulation to become wetter (precipitation increases with warming by 3%/K over wettest tropical ocean grid points) and the driest part of the atmospheric circulation to become drier (precipitation decreases of -2%/K over the driest tropical land grid points) is a robust result that emerges over the 21st century in response to the substantial surface warming. This indicates that enhancement in seasonality and wet and dry extremes (flooding and drought) may be anticipated over the coming century.

 

 

 

 

 

Long-term changes in snowfall over Japan and its regionality

H. Takahashi (Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract details
Long-term changes in snowfall over Japan and its regionality

H. Takahashi (1) ; S. Sugimoto (1)
(1) Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract content

 We examined the long-term changes in snowfall over Japan for recent 50 years, using observational data and a regional climate model.

 Climate change can significantly influence the snowfall on the Japan Sea side of Japan because the seasonal surface air temperature is higher than 0 deg C in northern winter. This side of Japan is one of the heaviest snowfall regions on Earth. These heavy snowfalls are a consequence of the northwesterly flow of the Asian winter monsoon from Eurasia and the regionʼs windward (northwestern side) position along Japanʼs northeast-southwest trending central mountain range. Two main factors influence precipitation over the Japan Sea side. One is the activity of cold and dry northwesterly winds of the Asian winter monsoon, and the other is sensible and latent heat fluxes on the Japan Sea,which are strongly associated with the sea surface temperature (SST).

 The snowfall amount can be influenced by total precipitation amount and ratio of snowfall amount to the total precipitation. Total precipitation is modulated by many factors. On the other hand, the ratio of snowfall amount to the total precipitation is basucally due to surface air temperature. Thus, we investigated the both factors, focusing on regional difference of the long-term changes.

Results showed that snowfall has drastically changed over the Sea of Japan side of Japan around late 1980's. Concurrent with the drastic change in snowfall, surface air temperature has dramatically increased. However, the drastic changes in snowfall was unclear over the some regions, which was modulated by the total precipitation changes. The regionality of long-term changes in snowfall will be discussed.

 

Assessment of climate transformation in Belarus according to the COSMO-CLM model simulations

Assessment of climate transformation in Belarus according to the COSMO-CLM model simulations I. Partasenok (Hydromet, Minsk, Belarus), B. Geyer (Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthaht, Germany), V. Melnik (Hydromet, Minsk, Belarus)

Abstract details
Assessment of climate transformation in Belarus according to the COSMO-CLM model simulations

I. Partasenok (1) ; B. Geyer (2) ; V. Melnik (1)
(1) Hydromet, Minsk, Belarus; (2) Institute of Coastal Research, System analysis and modelling, Geesthaht, Germany

Abstract content

According to climatic investigations deviations of annual temperature have increased during last decades in Belarus. The period of significant transformation of the temperature regime has been observed since 1970s, and rapidly since 1989.

We used simulations of the COSMO model in CLimate Mode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM) for detailed assessment of climate transformation in Belarus. This is a nonhydrostatic regional climate model developed from the Local Model (LM) of the German Meteorological Service by the CLM-community.

The coastDatII dataset was produced with the COSMO-CLM at the Institute of Coastal Research of HZG to give a consistent and homogeneous database mainly for assessing weather statistics and climate changes since 1948, e.g., in frequencies of extremes for Europe. The simulation was done for 1948 to 2012 and a horizontal grid size of 0.22 degree in rotated coordinates. Global reanalysis data of NCEP1 were used as forcing.

The observed gridded data (E-Obs) was applied in the study for estimation of adequacy of the model simulations. We used the E-Obs v.10.0 gridded dataset (European Climate Assessment & Dataset) for the period of 1950–2012 as an European daily high-resolution gridded dataset the surface temperature and precipitation data.

We calculated means of seasonal temperature and precipitation over Belarus for 1955-2012 period. The calculations of temperature showed differences in the coastDatII and E-Obs varied within 0.6-2 oC depending on season. The largest deviations were obtained in winter and consist of 1.7-2.0 oC, in spring differences were as 0.8-1 oC; in summer were obtained the smallest deviations within 0.6-0.8 oC and in autumn they were about 1.0-1.3 oC. Yearly means differ for both period on 0.9 oC. During the year the E-Obs values were higher than coastDatII except summer when values derived from CCLM exceed the observed ones. Analysis of min/max values of seasonal temperature proved smoothed course of the temperature with less amplitude in CCLM.

Calculated differences of annual sums of precipitation were not significant and lied within 7%. But differences of seasonal sums varied from 10 to 20 %, especially in summer season when difference was about 50 %.  It could be explained as an incorrect calculation of precipitation forced by convective process.

Analysis of annual temperature trends according to coastDatII showed statistically significant increasing of temperature over entire territory of Belarus: from 0.22 oC per decade on the West to 0.3 oC per decade of the East of the country. Trends of annual precipitation showed remarkable increasing (up to 12 mm per decade) in the North and North-East part of the Belarus but in the central and southern parts of the country sums of annual precipitation varied within norm.

Physical properties and evolution of mesoscale high cloud systems

S. Protopapadaki (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France), C. Stubenrauch (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France), A. Feofilov (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Physical properties and evolution of mesoscale high cloud systems

S. Protopapadaki (1) ; C. Stubenrauch (1) ; A. Feofilov (1)
(1) Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Université de paris 6, Paris, France

Abstract content

Representing about 40% of the Earth’s total cloud cover, clouds in the upper troposphere play a crucial role in the climate system by modulating the Earth's energy budget and heat transport. These clouds often form mesoscale cloud systems extending over several hundred kilometres. Ubiquitous cirrus (semi-transparent ice clouds in the upper troposphere) evolve as the outflow of convective and frontal systems or form in cold air supersaturated with water. Both their evolution with climate change and their feedback can only be reliably estimated if these cloud systems are adequately represented in climate models. Only satellite instruments are able to give a picture as a whole of these systems. IR sounders are observing our planet since 1979, with improvements in spectral resolution: from the TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounders (TOVS) onboard the NOAA polar satellites through the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) onboard Aqua since 2002, and to the InfraRed Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) on board the MetOp platforms since 2006. The good spectral resolution of these instruments allows reliable cirrus identification, both from day and night-time observations. For this study we have developed a novel method to describe mesoscale high cloud systems, taking into account their horizontal extent. The occurrence of convection within these systems will be estimated by using cloud emissivity and a clustering method. This allows a distinction between in situ cirrus and cirrus linked to convective or frontal systems. The vertical extent of these cloud systems, essential for determining the energy balance at the Earth surface, can only be determined from active instruments (CALIPSO lidar and CloudSat radar synchronous with AIRS). This data set will be explored and distributed within the framework of the GEWEX Process Evaluation Study on Upper Tropospheric Clouds and Convection (UTCC PROES).

We will relate the horizontal extent of the anvil to the convective strength of the system and we will present first results on the variability of high cloud systems with their surrounding atmosphere. Analyzing the evolution and properties of mesoscale cloud systems as a whole and their role in generating cirrus clouds will be a major advancement in climate studies, also giving a new impulse in climate model evaluation.

Stratospheric ozone causes a negative feedback in CO2-driven climate change simulations

S. Dietmüller, (DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany), M. Ponater (DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany), M. Dameris (DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany), R. Sausen, (DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany)

Abstract details
Stratospheric ozone causes a negative feedback in CO2-driven climate change simulations

S. Dietmüller, (1) ; M. Ponater (1) ; M. Dameris (2) ; R. Sausen, (1)
(1) DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Earth system modelling, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; (2) DLR, Institut für physik der atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

Abstract content

Ozone has been considered mainly as a contributor to climate change in terms of radiative forcing. However, it is also providing a radiative feedback when climate change is induced by, for example, a radiative forcing from CO2 increase. Interactively coupled chemistry-climate models can be used to identify and quantify this feedback. In a set of simulations forced by CO2 increase of different strength we find a negative ozone radiative feedback, which reduces the climate sensitivity compared to a model system where the ozone distribution is prescribed. Stratospheric ozone is more important than tropospheric ozone for this chemical feedback. The feedback mechanisms mainly works through intensification of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as sea surface temperature increases. The stratospheric water vapour feedback is modified by interaction with the ozone feedback, becoming less positive than in simulations with fixed ozone. Hence, a negative ozone feedback and a reduced water vapour feedback overlap constructively in CO2-driven simulations with interactive ozone, giving a global sea surface temperature response that is 4 to 10% smaller than in a corresponding simulation without interactive chemistry.

Stratospheric chemistry-climate interactions and their importance for the surface climate in Antarctica

P. Braesicke (KIT, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany), J. Keeble (University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom), L. Abraham (University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom), S. Kellmann (KIT, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany), J. Pyle (University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom), G. Stiller (KIT, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany), X. Yang (BAS, Cambridge, United Kingdom)

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Stratospheric chemistry-climate interactions and their importance for the surface climate in Antarctica

P. Braesicke (1) ; J. Keeble (2) ; L. Abraham (3) ; S. Kellmann (1) ; J. Pyle (2) ; G. Stiller (1) ; X. Yang (4)
(1) KIT, IMK-ASF, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany; (2) University of Cambridge, Cas, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (3) University of Cambridge, Ncas, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (4) BAS, British antarctic survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom

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One prominent example of anthropogenic environmental change is the annually recurring ozone hole in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). This systematic change in stratospheric composition affects circulation and tropospheric climate. To improve our understanding of how a stratospheric change induces shifts in tropospheric climate, we investigate model integrations run with the fully coupled chemistry climate model UM-UKCA. Results are confronted, where appropriate, with satellite observed changes from the MIPAS instrument on ENVISAT.

Comparing two climate-equilibrium runs with and without an ozone hole we find statistically significant changes in the models thermal structure and circulation. Polar lower stratospheric cooling, in conjunction with the elevation of the high latitude tropopause and followed by an increase in the vertical component of the EP flux from November to December are consistent with a surface warming of the Antarctic Peninsula in December. The seasonal change of circulation is accompanied by an apparently descending anomaly of the EP flux divergence in the stratosphere, thus suggesting an active role of stratospheric dynamics in the surface response.

The robustness of such a circulation response to ozone changes can be studied diagnosing differences of long-lived trace gas distributions as an indicator for large-scale circulation changes. Here, we contrast the MIPAS observed year-to-year variability in N2O to changes in the seasonal evolution of N2O in different modelled climate equilibrium states with different ozone amounts. We conclude that the climate system can respond sensitively (but coherently) in its seasonal evolution to small chemical perturbations and the circulation adjustments modelled are consistent with observed interannual variability. This finding supports the applicability of the UM-UKCA climate equilibrium runs to the interpretation of the Antarctic Peninsula warming.

Evidence by remote sensing and combined-model approaches for the role of gravity waves in sudden stratospheric warmings

P. Preusse (Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Juelich, Germany), M. Ern, (Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Juelich, Germany), B.-G. Song, (Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea), T. Trinh, (Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Juelich, Germany), F. Friedl-Vallon, (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany), P. Bechtold, (ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom), H.-Y. Chun, (Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea), J. Orphal, (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany), M. Riese, (Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, Juelich, Germany)

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Evidence by remote sensing and combined-model approaches for the role of gravity waves in sudden stratospheric warmings

P. Preusse (1) ; M. Ern, (1) ; BG. Song, (2) ; T. Trinh, (1) ; F. Friedl-Vallon, (3) ; P. Bechtold, (4) ; HY. Chun, (2) ; J. Orphal, (3) ; M. Riese, (1)
(1) Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH, IEK-7, Juelich, Germany; (2) Yonsei University, Seoul, Republic of Korea; (3) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; (4) ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom

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Observations of absolute values of gravity wave momentum flux (GWMF) from the satellite instruments SABER ad HIRDLS in conjuncture with global stratospheric and mesospheric winds are used to investigate the role of GWs in the different phases of the sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) during the recent decade. Both GWMF and its vertical gradient as a proxy for drag are enhanced before the central date of major SSWs. After the central date of the SSW, GWMF and gravity wave drag in the stratosphere are strongly reduced. However, GWs contribute to the downward propagation of newly formed polar jets and of elevated stratopauses to their "climatological" altitude. This is likely at least in part due to poleward propagation of GWs. In order to shed light on the sources, propagation direction and phase speed spectra of the waves we complement the observations by high-resolution global model fields of ECMWF. We use these fields to infer the characteristics of GWs in the lower stratosphere and couple the results to global ray-tracing. This allows us to a) infer sources of GWMF by backward ray-tracing and b) to study the interaction of GWs in the stratosphere and mesosphere by forward ray-tracing in the background of geostrophic winds inferred from MLS and SABER. The current satellite observations can not reveal the propagation direction of the waves and model data need still to be proven to be fully realistic: the advantages of both approaches would be combined in limb-imaging measurements of a future mission. A concept for such an instrument is presented.

On the coupling between polar and tropical regions during springtime: variability of tropical intrusion and Frozen In Anticyclones

N. Huret (LPC2E/CNRS and Orléans University, Orléans, France), R. Thiéblemont (GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany), A. Hauchecorne (CNRS, Guyancourt, France), Y. J. Orsolini (NILU, Kjeller, Norway), K. Matthes (GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany)

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On the coupling between polar and tropical regions during springtime: variability of tropical intrusion and Frozen In Anticyclones

N. Huret (1) ; R. Thiéblemont (2) ; A. Hauchecorne (3) ; YJ. Orsolini (4) ; K. Matthes (2)
(1) LPC2E/CNRS and Orléans University, Orléans, France; (2) GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany; (3) CNRS, Latmos, Guyancourt, France; (4) NILU, Kjeller, Norway

Abstract content

Recent observational and modeling transport studies of Arctic stratospheric final warming have shown that tropical/subtropical air masses  can be transported to high latitudes and remain confined within a long-lived “frozen-in” anticyclone (FrIAC), embedded in the summer easterlies for several months.

We first present a climatology of these sporadic events over the period 1960-2011 using ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. This study highlights stratospheric favorable preconditioning for FrIACs occurrence, that is: i) early and abrupt final warming, ii) no stratospheric major warming during the previous winter, and iii) East phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. We will present in detail the FrIAC in spring 2011, which was the largest ever recorded. Our climatology further suggests that the frequency of occurrence of FrIACs has increased over the last decade (among the nine cases detected over the period 1960-2011, five occurred between 2002 and 2011).

     A chemistry climate model is then used for the first time to investigate FrIACs characteristics and variability. Simulations were performed with the NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM, version 1.0.2), a coupled model system including the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). FrIACs characteristics (i.e. spatial extent and duration), are overall consistent by comparing with FrIACs detected ERA-40 meteorological reanalyses. Dynamical analysis reveals that FrIACs are associated with an abrupt and early winter-to-summer stratospheric circulation transition, characterized by an amplification of planetary wave activity. Furthermore, our model results confirm that FrIACs occur preferentially under the easterly phase of the QBO and in absence of MSW during the preceding winter. Finally, we notice that extreme climate change conditions (RCP8.5 scenario) do not influence FrIACs frequency.

Stochastic parameterizations of the gravity waves emitted from convection and fronts: theory, validation, and impacts of the middle atmospheric circulation

A. De La Camara (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France), F. Lott, (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France), L. Guez, (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France), A. Hertzog, (Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France)

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Stochastic parameterizations of the gravity waves emitted from convection and fronts: theory, validation, and impacts of the middle atmospheric circulation

A. De La Camara (1) ; F. Lott, (1) ; L. Guez, (1) ; A. Hertzog, (1)
(1) Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris, France

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Internal gravity waves (GWs) propagating vertically from their tropospheric sources impact the circulation of the middle atmosphere, and are crucial for the reversal of the mesospheric jet and the maintenance of the quasi-biennial oscillation. Their spatial scales being too small to be represented in current Earth System models, they need to be parameterized. Nevertheless, mechanisms for GW emission by fronts and jets remain elusive nowadays. As a result, non-orographic GW parameterizations have traditionally assumed an arbitrarily uniform source of waves, which makes them insensitive to the annual cycle of the GW sources or to a changing climate. For these reasons, much effort has been made over the last decade to develop schemes that relate the GWs to their sources.

A recently developed stochastic parameterization of gravity waves is used and adapted to represent the gravity waves produced by convection and mid-latitude fronts. For the fronts, the parameterization uses a theory of the spontaneous adjustment that relates directly the gravity waves field to potential vorticity anomalies. With relatively little modification to the theory, we show that the spontaneous adjustments occurring in the troposphere are sufficient to produce the right amount of waves in the mesosphere. We also predict the gravity wave field present during the Concordiasi long-duration balloon campaign in the lower stratosphere, and show that the gravity waves predicted by the parameterization are quite realistic. The impacts on the climate are also addressed with the General Circulation Model LMDz, with a particular emphasis on the annual cycle in the stratosphere. We also address the significance of including the GWs sources on the middle atmosphere response to a changing climate. Preliminary results show that when GW sources are included, the middle atmosphere response to climate change is stronger than without the sources, the impacts even reaching the surface at least in the Southern Hemisphere.

 

de la Cámara, A., and F. Lott, 2015: A parameterization of gravity waves emitted by fronts and jets, Geophys. Res. Lett, doi: 10.1002/2015GL063298.

de la Cámara, A., F. Lott, and A. Hertzog, 2014: Intermittency in a stochastic parameterization of non-orographic gravity waves, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, 11,905–11,919, doi:10.1002/2014JD022002.

Lott, F., and L. Guez, 2013: A stochastic parameterization of the gravity waves due to convection and impact on the equatorial stratosphere, J. Geophys. Res., 118 (16), 8897-8909.

The ARISE project: dynamics of the atmosphere and climat

E. Blanc (CEA, Arpajon, France), A. Charlton-Perez (University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom), P. Keckhut (LATMOS-IPSL, Guyancourt, France), L. Evers ( Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , De Bilt, Netherlands), P. Heinrich (CEA, Arpajon, France), A. Le Pichon (CEA, Arpajon, France), A. Hauchecorne (CNRS, Guyancourt, France)

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The ARISE project: dynamics of the atmosphere and climat

E. Blanc (1) ; A. Charlton-Perez (2) ; P. Keckhut (3) ; L. Evers (4) ; P. Heinrich (1) ; A. Le Pichon (1) ; A. Hauchecorne (5)
(1) CEA, Arpajon, France; (2) University of Reading, Department of meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom; (3) LATMOS-IPSL, Guyancourt, France; (4) Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) , De Bilt, Netherlands; (5) CNRS, Latmos, Guyancourt, France

Abstract content

      It has been robustly demonstrated that variations in the circulation of the middle atmosphere influence weather and climate throughout the troposphere all the way to the Earth’s surface. A key part of the coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere occurs through the propagation and breaking of planetary waves and gravity waves. Limited observations of the middle atmosphere and these waves in particular hamper our ability to faithfully reproduce the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in numerical weather prediction and climate models.

    An exciting scientific development in recent years has been the potential for a number of novel ground-based measurement techniques to give new and complementary measurements of the middle atmosphere. The main challenge of the ARISE (Atmospheric dynamics InfraStructure in Europe) project[1] is to combine for the first time existing national and international observation networks which observe the middle atmosphere including:  the International infrasound monitoring system developed for the CTBT (Comprehensive nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty) verification, the NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Changes) lidar network, localized European observation infrastructures at mid latitudes (OHP observatory), tropics (Maïdo observatory), high latitudes (ALOMAR and EISCAT), infrasound stations developed at national level in European countries and satellite measurements. This joint network provided advanced data products, with the scope to assemble the derived upper atmospheric wind and temperatures into NWP models.

    The ARISE infrastructure is unique because of its coverage (from polar to equatorial and tropical regions in the European longitude sector and adjacent regions), its ability to sense a wide range of altitudes (including stratosphere, mesosphere, lower thermosphere, ionosphere) and the involved scales both in time (from seconds to tens of years) and space (from tens of meters to thousands of kilometers). We are about to embark upon a new phase of development to allow the network be improved by i) including innovative instrumentation for measurements in the middle atmosphere between 40 and 80 km where temperature and wind measurements are especially rare, ii) adding measurements in low latitude African stations where only infrasound observations are currently available, iii) and by automating lidar and radar measurements for routine observations.

    The major ARISE objective is to provide a full description of gravity and planetary waves in the stratosphere and mesosphere for wave parameterization and assimilation in the models. This could lead to a better prediction of extreme events such as Sudden Stratospheric Warming and improvement of the tropospheric weather forecasts on weekly time scales. The societal impact is potentially very large, including for sectors such as agriculture, industry, energy consumption, transport, insurance and risk quantification.

    ARISE objectives are also i) to better characterize the coupling between atmospheric layers and effects on the global atmospheric circulation and climate, ii) to quantify the trends in extreme events relate to climate, iii) to determine the impact of the Earth’s geo-space.

The project is multidisciplinary and includes European groups with complementary expertise in weather forecasting, climate, extreme events monitoring. It has partners in a number of international organizations including the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), WMO (World Meteorological Organization), SPARC (Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate), ROSMIC (Role Of the Sun and the Middle atmosphere-thermosphere-ionosphere In Climate), IRGGEA (International Research Group in Geophysics Europe Africa).

   This presentation will review recent advances in this topic especially obtained in the framework of the ARISE project. It will also discuss perspectives and future project challenges related to climate.

   

[1] ARISE is an infrastructure Design Study project funded by the European Commission under the H2020 program.

The impact of biogenic bromine emissions from the oceans on the middle atmosphere in a changing climate

B.-M. Sinnhuber (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany), G. Krysztofiak (University of Orléans, LPC2E, CNRS, Orléans, France), S. Meul (Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany)

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The impact of biogenic bromine emissions from the oceans on the middle atmosphere in a changing climate

BM. Sinnhuber (1) ; G. Krysztofiak (2) ; S. Meul (3)
(1) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany; (2) University of Orléans, LPC2E, CNRS, Orléans, France; (3) Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany

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Bromine from very short-lived substances, primarily from natural oceanic sources, contribute substantially to the halogen loading of the free troposphere and stratosphere with an important impact on atmospheric chemistry. This source of atmospheric bromine has so far been ignored in most chemistry-climate model simulations of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends. Here we will present chemistry climate model simulations over the past decades including the biogenic emissions of bromine from the oceans and their impact on atmospheric chemistry and ozone trends. We will discuss possible interactions between oceanic emissions, atmospheric chemistry and climate change.

Network for the Detection of Mesopause Change (NDMC): What can we learn from airglow measurements in terms of better understanding atmospheric dynamics?

M. Bittner (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany), S. Wüst (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany), C. Schmidt, (DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany), P. J. Espy (Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway), J. French (Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia), F. Mulligan, (National University of Ireland, Kildare, Ireland), J. Scheer (Istituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio, Buenos Aires, Argentina), M. Taylor, (Utah State University, Logan , United States of America)

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Network for the Detection of Mesopause Change (NDMC): What can we learn from airglow measurements in terms of better understanding atmospheric dynamics?

M. Bittner (1) ; S. Wüst (1) ; C. Schmidt, (1) ; PJ. Espy (2) ; J. French (3) ; F. Mulligan, (4) ; J. Scheer (5) ; M. Taylor, (6)
(1) DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Dfd-atm, Wessling, Germany; (2) Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway; (3) Australian Antarctic Division, Climate processes and change, Kingston, Australia; (4) National University of Ireland, Experimental physics, Kildare, Ireland; (5) Istituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (6) Utah State University, Center for atmospheric and space sciences, Logan , United States of America

Abstract content

The international Network for the Detection of Mesopause Change (NDMC, http://wdc.dlr.de/ndmc) is a global program with the mission to promote international cooperation among research groups investigating the mesopause region (80-100 km) with the goal of early identification of changing climate signals.

NDMC is contributing to the World Climate Research Program, WCRP.

Measurements of the airglow at the mesopause altitude region (80-100km) from most of the European NDMC stations including spectro-photometers and imagers allow monitoring atmospheric variability at time scales comprising long-term trends, annual and seasonal variability, planetary and gravity waves and infrasonic signals. The measurements also allow validating satellite-based measurements such as from the TIMED-SABER instrument.

Examples will be presented for airglow measurements and for related atmospheric dynamics analysis on the abovementioned spatio-temporal scales and comparisons with satellite-based instruments as well as with LIDAR soundings. Focus will be on climate signals in the mesopause region.

Recovery, recycling and destruction of F-gases in Georgia

S. Suladze (Georgian Refrigerant Recovery and Recycling Centre, Tbilisi, Georgia), S. Shekeladze (Georgian Rerigerant Recovery and Recycling Centre, Tbilisi, Georgia), L. Kvinikadze (Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia)

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Recovery, recycling and destruction of F-gases in Georgia

S. Suladze (1) ; S. Shekeladze (2) ; L. Kvinikadze (3)
(1) Georgian Refrigerant Recovery and Recycling Centre, Tbilisi, Georgia; (2) Georgian Rerigerant Recovery and Recycling Centre, Tbilisi, Georgia; (3) Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

Abstract content

Introduction of a sustainable system for recovery, disposal and destruction of contaminated artificial refrigerants, which are F-Gases with very high GWP (Global Warming Potential), is a direct contribution to the reduction of emissions of GHG into the atmosphere especially for developing countries.

Refrigerating, Air-conditioning and Heat pump (HRAC) sector is only consumer of industrial GHGs in Georgia. These substances have been widely introduced as alternatives to ODS   (Ozone Depleting Substances) refrigerants during the last twenty years since Georgia ratified the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. By this reason annual consumption of the industrial GHGs has grown up sharply and reached two hundred thousand metric tons now. Therefore the Introduction of an effective monitoring system together with recovery, disposal and destruction of F-gas refrigerants is urgent issue today in the country.    

This study gives feasibility assessment of such system for Georgia taking into account the experience of the Georgian Refrigerant Recovery & Recycling Centre in recovering, recycling or destruction of the ODS.

In order to make the feasibility assessment the preconditions for generating unwanted refrigerants bank were studied.

Based on the gathered and analyzed data the recommendations were formulated for designing a sustainable monitoring system of new and used GHG refrigerant in the country. The recommendations include introduction of measures to support the sustainability looking at available F-gases waste that can be collected through two Recovery & Recycling centers operating in the country in cooperation with service companies, importers, car dismantling and metal scrapping companies in longer run with future waste disposal deploying in-country generated sources of finance.

This is very urgent issue because like in other developing countries there are no technical facilities of destruction of F-gases waste in Georgia. So the collected unwanted GHG refrigerants have to be saved for trans-boundary transportation where they can be safely destroyed. Financial mechanism for sustainable system of F-gases waste permanent collection and destruction has been studied and shown that several methods for accumulation of funds inside the country can be acceptable for Georgia.

 

 

Transferring concern with climate mitigation to Institutional Sustainability: A case study applying carbon accounting as a tool for resource management in a desert environment

M. Rauch (The American University in Cairo, New Cairo, Egypt), R. Tutwiler (The American University in Cairo, New Cairo, Egypt), T. Jaskolski (The American University in Cairo, New Cairo, Egypt), K. Tarabieh (The American University in Cairo, New Cairo, Egypt)

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Transferring concern with climate mitigation to Institutional Sustainability: A case study applying carbon accounting as a tool for resource management in a desert environment

M. Rauch (1) ; R. Tutwiler (2) ; T. Jaskolski (2) ; K. Tarabieh (3)
(1) The American University in Cairo, Sustainability office, New Cairo, Egypt; (2) The American University in Cairo, Research institute for a sustainable environment, New Cairo, Egypt; (3) The American University in Cairo, Construction and Architectural Engineering Dept, New Cairo, Egypt

Abstract content

As a result of climate change and the potential risk of global warming, an emerging interest across academic institutions to develop a comprehensive inventory of greenhouse gas emissions is on the rise. Higher education institutions are often faced with the challenge to develop a process that will accurately assess the campus' resource consumption in a timely, economical, and informative manner. This type of assessment is not typical and relies heavily on the availability of data and institutional capacity to carry such exercise accurately and report the findings, benchmark against peer institutions and establish the institutional mechanisms to sustain this type of data intensive work. In response to the previous principals and faced with a number of environmental challenges in a desert environment, the American University in Cairo (AUC) recently completed the first phase of carbon accounting and issued a Carbon Footprint Report which highlights the strategies adopted by the sustainability team to reduce energy consumption on campus. The report measured the University’s carbon footprint, which is the annual total of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other significant greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere as a result of daily activities and campus operations. AUC was the first higher education institution in the Middle East and North Africa to conduct such a comprehensive study of its own impact on climate change. As part of its ongoing efforts to maintain and improve its operational sustainability, AUC has witnessed a one-third reduction in overall energy consumption on the New Cairo campus over the past two years, decreasing the cost of utilities by 35%, thanks to an energy-saving plan designed and implemented by the University’s sustainability team. This proposal presents the method, challenges, strengths and areas of improvement of the method used and outlines the present strategies developed to manage the campus resources as a result of this exercise. It also presents the efforts taken to institutionalize the method so it becomes campus culture and to transition the work from research to a daily practice.

Influence of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Air Pollution on Climate Change over the Indian Subcontinent

S. Palve (Research Scholar University of Pune, PUNE, MAHARASHTRA, India)

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Influence of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Air Pollution on Climate Change over the Indian Subcontinent

S. Palve (1)
(1) Research Scholar University of Pune, PUNE, MAHARASHTRA, India

Abstract content

India is home to an extraordinary variety of climatic regions, ranging from tropical in the south to temperate and alpine in the Himalayan north, where elevated regions receive sustained winter snowfall. India is characterised by strong temperature variations in different seasons ranging from mean temperature of about 10°C in winter to about 32 °C in summer season. Monsoonal and other weather patterns in India can be wildly unstable, epochal droughts, floods, cyclones, and other natural disasters are sporadic, but have displaced or ended millions of human lives. Ongoing and future vegetative changes and current sea level rises and the attendant inundation of India's low-lying coastal areas are other impacts, current or predicted, that are attributable to global warming.  Over the past two decades India has undergone rapid industrial and economic development with increasing emissions of gaseous pollutants.  The main tropospheric pollutants (O3, NO2, CO, formaldehyde (HCHO) and SO2) and two major greenhouse gases (tropospheric O3 and methane (CH4)) and important parameters of aerosols, which play a key role in climate change and affecting on the overall well-being of subcontinent residents. In the light of considering these facts this paper aims to investigating possible impact of air pollutants on climate change over the subcontinent. Atmospheric aerosols can impact the local and regional radiation heat budget. Black carbon aerosols absorb incident solar radiation and heat the atmosphere more effectively than dust, sulfates, and organic carbons, which reflect more radiation and cool the atmosphere. The population 1.25 billion in India has led to a significant demand on natural resources. Biofuels such as wood fuel, dung, and crop waste are the primary contributors of aerosols in rural areas of India.  Satellite derived column aerosol optical depth (AOD) is a cost effective way to monitor and study aerosols distribution and effects over a long time period. Aerosols have an impact on cloud formation process largely affecting monsoonal rainfall distribution over Indian subcontinent especially in the Ganga basin. Aerosols are found to be substantially increasing in the Ganga basin. Indo-Asian aerosols have impact on radiative forcing that cause negative forcing (cooling) at surface and positive effect (warming) at top of atmosphere.AOD is found to be increasing rapidly since 2000 in summer season that may cause adverse effect to the agricultural crops and also to the human health. Increased aerosol loading may likely affect the rainfall which is responsible for the observed drought conditions over the Indian subcontinent.Carbon monoxide is emitted into the atmosphere by biomass burning activities and by various other anthropogenic activities.  The MOPITT CO retrievals at 850 hPa show large CO emission from the IG region. MOPITT CO distributions are able to capture at least part of the surface CO pollution, particularly where the sources are strongest in the Indian region. MOPITT CO daytime retrievals are able to provide significant information on the vertical transport of CO associated with the deep convective activities during the Asian Summer Monsoon and horizontal transport during the winter monsoon. The development of convective activity associated with the ASM leads to large scale vertical transport of the boundary layer CO from the Indian region into the upper troposphere. Ozone (O3) plays an important role in the global weather and climate even though the total atmospheric composition of ozone is less than that of other trace gases. The total ozone column (TOC) in the tropical atmosphere depends on both chemical and dynamical processes and has been studied extensively during the past few decades.TCO over the Indian subcontinent has a systematic and gradual variation, spatial as well as temporal. Higher amount of TCO in the northern latitudes and simultaneous lower TCO at near equatorial latitudes indicates depletion of ozone near the equator and accumulation at higher latitudes within the subcontinent. Winds at tropospheric and stratospheric heights may be just one of the principal factors of spatial variation of TCO that transports atmospheric constituents from one region to another. The Asian monsoon affects the chemical composition of the troposphere. In addition, changes in stratospheric ozone and atmospheric abundances of aerosols alter the energy balance of the climate system.

 

A Multi-Model Regional Decomposition of CO2 Emissions: Socio-Economic Developments vs Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity Improvements

M. M. Malpede (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy)

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A Multi-Model Regional Decomposition of CO2 Emissions: Socio-Economic Developments vs Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity Improvements

MM. Malpede (1)
(1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy

Abstract content

This study explores the regional distribution of total CO2 emissions.

Kaya and Yokoburi (1997) decompose carbon dioxide emissions into 4 different components, namely Population, GDP per capita, Energy Efficiency and Carbon Intensity.

 

Ang (2004) shows that a difference in an aggregate indicator can be decomposed into the sum of the effects by differences in explaining factors and residual terms. Therefore changes of CO2 between time t and t-n is defined as the sum of the differences of each of the drivers and a residual term:

 

By making use of the Long Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and the Refined Laspeyres Decomposition (RLD), the purpose of the paper is to quantitatively analyze how those components affect total CO2 emissions for different regions of the world, over time and across different socio-economic scenarios. In particular, socio-economic scenarios considered to perform this analysis are the 5 SSPs developed by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).

The reason of that is to determine the implications of each of the 4 drivers in evaluating the impacts of climate policies on global and regional economic systems and exploring the differences between short-term (2010-2030), medium-term (2010-2050) and long-run (2010-2100) effects.

By drawing data from the IIASA Database, this study considers 6 Integrated Assessment Models used to analyze climate mitigation and impact of different policies in regional economic systems, i.e. AIM-CGE, REMIND, MESSAGE, GCAM, IMAGE and WITCH and by making use of the Principal Component Analysis it evaluates their performances in explaining regional CO2 variations, and in which degree they differ.

 

The main findings of this study are the following:

REGIONAL VARIATIONS OF CO2 EMISSIONS:

- Index Decomposition Analysis, performed by utilizing the LMDI method suggests a convergence and eventually divergence in total CO2 emissions over time for developing countries with respect to advanced economies. This is mainly due to more robust GDP per capita and Population growth rates relatively to those shown by the USA and Europe.

- However this is not the case of Latin America countries which thanks to a relative high rate of carbonization and less GDP per capita growth will show a minor average growth of total CO2 emissions with respect to that of the USA.

IMPACT OF EACH FACTOR IN EXPLAINING CO2 OVER TIME AND ACROSSSCENARIOS:

- GDP per capita and Population are shown to have a positive impact on total CO2emissions, in particular for developing regions. Energy Efficiency, in contrast, is the main determinant in dragging down total CO2 emissions variations across different economic scenarios. This is valid for all regions considered expect for Latin America countries in which decarbonization plays the biggest role.

- While the impact of Energy Efficiency is more stagnant over time, the pattern shown by the Carbon Intensity Effect suggests an increasing trend over the course of the years. Nevertheless the implications of such components differ from region to region and scenario considered.

PERFORMANCES OF INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS IN EVALUATING REGIONAL CO2 EMISSION VARIATIONS:

- Principal Component Analysis suggests that although the 6 models achieved a considerable degree of homogeneity, the main source of difference stems from the components of Primary Energy (i.e. Fossil, Biomass, Nuclear and Non Biomass Renewables), while showing a similar pattern for Carbon Intensity, Population and GDP per capita. In particular IMAGE and MESSAGE incorporate more optimistic assumptions on total CO2 variation in the short-term relatively to WITCH, GCAM, AIM and REMIND.

Assessing the role of megacities on atmospheric CO2: results for Paris from the CO2-MegaParis project, France

I. Xueref-Remy (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), E. Dieudonné, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), C. Vuillemin, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), M. Lopez, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), C. Lac, (CNRM, Toulouse, France), M. Delmotte, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), F. Ravetta (LATMOS, Paris, France), O. Perrussel (AIRPARIF, Paris, France), F.-M. Bréon (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), G. Broquet, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), M. Schmidt, (IUP, Heidelberg, Germany), F. Chevallier (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), V. Masson (CNRM, Toulouse, France), P. Ciais (LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France), M. Ramonet (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), C. Ampe, (Airparif, Pars, France), L. Ammoura, (LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France), V. Gros (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), A. Baudic, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), B. Bonsang, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

Abstract details
Assessing the role of megacities on atmospheric CO2: results for Paris from the CO2-MegaParis project, France

I. Xueref-Remy (1) ; E. Dieudonné, (1) ; C. Vuillemin, (1) ; M. Lopez, (1) ; C. Lac, (2) ; M. Delmotte, (1) ; F. Ravetta (3) ; O. Perrussel (4) ; FM. Bréon (1) ; G. Broquet, (1) ; M. Schmidt, (5) ; F. Chevallier (1) ; V. Masson (2) ; P. Ciais (6) ; M. Ramonet () ; C. Ampe, (7) ; L. Ammoura, (6) ; V. Gros (1) ; A. Baudic, (1) ; B. Bonsang, (1)
(1) LSCE, Ipsl, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) CNRM, Toulouse, France; (3) LATMOS, Ipsl, Paris, France; (4) AIRPARIF, Paris, France; (5) IUP, Heidelberg, Germany; (6) LSCE, Ipsl, Gif sur Yvette, France; (7) Airparif, Pars, France

Abstract content

On average, atmospheric CO2 increases in the atmosphere at a rate of about 2 parts per million (ppm) per year, due to the accumulation of about half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions in the atmosphere (mostly from the combustion of fossil fuels), while the other half is being re-absorbed by the ocean and the continental biosphere. Today, more than 70% of global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions come from punctual sources such as megacities. Paris is the third megacity in Europe and it emits about 15% of the total French emissions, while it covers only less than 2% of the national territory. Currently, most of the estimates of urban CO2 emissions are given by bottom-up CO2 emissions inventories, which rely on activity proxies and benchmarked emission factors. The associated uncertainties can be as high as several tenths of percents, especially when it comes to discriminate the CO2 urban emissions by emission sectors. Therefore, there is an urgent need for developing new methods to better Monitoring, Reporting and Veryfying (MRV) CO2 emissions from megacities, dedicated to provide robust results to policy makers for taking efficient decisions and actions in matter of controling CO2 anthropogenic emissions and mitigating climate change. Since 2009, the CO2-Megaparis project aims to quantify CO2 emissions from Paris using top-down approaches based on a synergy between atmospheric observations and modeling. For the first time, a mini-network of 3 greenhouse gases (GHG) monitoring stations was developed by LSCE in Paris agglomeration within the infrastructure of the regional air quality monitoring agency, AIRPARIF, completing 2 other GHG stations from the ICOS European greenhouse monitoring network. One of our urban station was located on top of the Eiffel tower above Paris megacity. The analysis of one year of data showed that Paris CO2 emissions lead to a mean increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the mid-afternoon of 2 to 3 ppm, and is strongly season, windspeed and wind direction dependent: the CO2 urban plume is characterized by a very large spatio-temporal variability and can reach about 60 ppm at low windspeeds on top of the Eiffel tower. In addition, analysis of correlations between CO2, CO and 14C02 were carried out from field measurements and allowed an independent assessment of the inventories emission sectors. Furthermore, direct modeling of CO2 at a very fine resolution (2x2 km2, 1h) was performed and matched well with the observations. Last but not least, inverse modeling efforts at the same resolution allowed a significant improvment of the regional inventory from Airparif. Finally, a campaign conducted during springtime and based on lidar facilities revealed that due to the effect of the urban heat island, the boundary layer height (that can be seen on the first degree as the man dilution factor of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere), is 10 to 40% time higher in Paris than in surrounding rural areas: this is an important result that supports the implementation of urban canopy models in future fine scale urban CO2 modeling framework. A synthesis of the different results will be presented, as well as an attempt of defining the strengths and weaknesses of the atmospheric approach to quantify urban CO2 emissions. Contributions from sister studies (MultiCO2 - IPSL, Le CO2 parisien - Ville de Paris 2030, CarboCount-City - KIC Climat...) will also be mentionned.

Greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption and mitigation of a mining project in Padcal, Benguet Province, Philippines

E. Racelis (University of the Philippines Los Banos, College, Laguna, Philippines), D. Racelis, (University of the Philippines Los Banos, College, Laguna, Philippines)

Abstract details
Greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption and mitigation of a mining project in Padcal, Benguet Province, Philippines

E. Racelis (1) ; D. Racelis, (1)
(1) University of the Philippines Los Banos, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, College, Laguna, Philippines

Abstract content

The mining industry is one of the most economically important sectors in our society particularly for developing countries. It is a major foreign exchange earner and provides employment opportunities to thousands of people. However, the industry is viewed as among the primary causes of environmental degradation. One of the potential adverse impacts of mining operation is greenhouse gas emission that contributes to global warming and climate change. To minimize the impacts, accurate assessment of greenhouse gas emitting activities is necessary not only to identify them but more importantly to find ways to minimize if not totally avoid their adverse consequences.

 

A study was conducted to determine the amount of GHG emissions of a mining project focusing on its energy consumption.  Using 2014 as base year, the study showed that under Scope 1, the fuel used for both mobile and stationary sources amounted to a total of 5,081,995.10 liters of diesel and 8,317.00 liters of gasoline.  The total fuel usage has an equivalent amount of 14,021.09 Mg of CO2e.  While under Scope 2, the company consumed a total of 280,142.01 megawatts of electricity in its mine and milling operations including those of ancillary services and staff housing needs.  The amount of electricity consumed has an equivalent of 238,400.85 Mg of CO2e emissions.  

 

To sum it up, the company’s GHG emissions from energy usage yielded a total of 252,421.94 Mg of CO2e.  This would mean that the project has to mitigate their CO2 emissions.  One of the easiest and economical ways of sequestering carbon is through plantation maintenance and establishment in which the company has intensively done since then.  A Pinus kesiya plantation has an average sequestration rate of 12.7 Mg C ha-1 year-1 or 46.57 Mg CO2 ha-1 year-1 based on studies conducted from different age classes. P. kesiya is a common and most dominant species in the Cordillera Region.  Hence, to offset the company’s current emissions, it would need a minimum of 5,420.3 hectares of pure Pinus kesiya and mixed P. kesiya plantations to maintain per year.   This could also be supported by other mitigating measures to compensate emissions from other sources.

 

Evolution of CO2 storage in karstic cavities by changes in climate in semiarid regions: Rull Cave (Alicante, Spain)

C. Pla (University of Alicante, Alicante, Spain), C. Grossi (University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom), E. Garcia-Anton (CSIC, Madrid, Spain), S. Cuezva (CSIC, Madrid, Spain), A. Fernandez-Cortes (Royal Holloway, University of London, Surrey, United Kingdom), J. Cañaveras (University of Alicante, Alicante, Spain), S. Sanchez-Moral (CSIC, Madrid, Spain), D. Benavente (University of Alicante, Alicante, Spain)

Abstract details
Evolution of CO2 storage in karstic cavities by changes in climate in semiarid regions: Rull Cave (Alicante, Spain)

C. Pla (1) ; C. Grossi (2) ; E. Garcia-Anton (3) ; S. Cuezva (3) ; A. Fernandez-Cortes (4) ; J. Cañaveras (1) ; S. Sanchez-Moral (3) ; D. Benavente (1)
(1) University of Alicante, Earth and environmental sciences, Alicante, Spain; (2) University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; (3) CSIC, Museo nacional de ciencias naturales, Madrid, Spain; (4) Royal Holloway, University of London, Department of earth sciences, Surrey, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The global carbon cycle in the Earth’s surface-troposphere boundary depends on feedbacks among a number of sources and sink processes that operate on both short and long time scales. Soil and subsurface cavities in the vadose zone may contain large amounts of CO2 compared to the exterior air. CO2 concentrations in the vadose zone show significant seasonal and even daily variations, which involves the exchange of large amounts of this greenhouse gas with the lower troposphere. The main source of the CO2 contained in the caves is the organic production from soil although the abiotic contribution can be important in warm seasons. CO2 from soil can be transported into the caves as a gas or dissolved in seepage waters and the final cave air CO2 concentration air is broadly the result of the mixing of background atmospheric CO2 with soil-produced CO2. Tourism can also increase CO2 concentrations in cave-air by an order of magnitude. The cavities CO2 outputs are mainly due to ventilation processes that depend on cave morphology, the number and configuration of cave openings, and microclimatic relationships with the exterior climate.

Our study has been carried out in the Rull cave during two annual cycles (November 2012 – January 2015). The karstic cavity is located in the northeastern sector of Alicante province, a semiarid region on the Spanish Mediterranean coast (30 km far from the coast line). Indoor trace gases (CO2 and 222Rn) showed that cave acts as both CO2 sink and source for the whole period, although some differences were found between the two registered cycles. For the first cycle (December 2012 – November 2013), average value of indoor T and RH were 15.9ºC and 97.2% respectively. Indoor T reached a maximum value of 16.6 ºC. CO2 mean concentration was 2054 ppm but this value varied from 463 ppm (minimum value, registered in January 2013) to 4065 ppm (August 2013). In 2014, indoor T and RH average values were 16.1ºC and 97.8% respectively but indoor T reached a maximum value of 17.9 ºC. Mean CO2 concentration was 1937 ppm but ranged from 565 ppm (February 2014) to 3731 ppm (August 2014). The gaseous recharge of the cavity occurs when the outdoors temperature is higher than the cave air temperature as consequence of the air density differences. For the second studied cycle (2014) the recharge of the cavity took place some days before than for the first cycle as outdoor temperature exceeded the temperature of the cavity slightly earlier than in 2013. This fact confirms that relationship between both temperatures is a key factor in the dynamics of this cavity. Furthermore, air cave CO2 changed for the both cycles and was closely related to rainfall since it contributes to biotic and abiotic processes. For the first cycle (2013) total annual rainfall was 471 mm, while it was 280 mm for 2014. Rainfall drop is mainly responsible of a lower CO2 concentration in the cavity for 2014 due to: (i) a lower organic production as consequence of reduction in soil moisture; (ii) a lower amount of seepage waters that finally reach the cavity containing dissolved CO2; (iii) when the soil-epikarst system suffers for a reduction in moisture (due to the scarce rainfalls) a major connection between the underground and the exterior environment is accomplished as consequence of an opening of the soil porous system and the fractures-fissures of the epikarst, which is responsable for a higher gaseous exchange.

The isotopic signal δ13C of CO2 is widely used as a proxy of the origin of the CO2. The light values of δ13CO2 inside the cavity point to an organic origin of the CO2. δ13CO2 average annual value for outdoor atmosphere, soil and cave are -10.1, -21.9 and -22.0 ‰ respectively. CO2 in soil was measured for the whole year in 2014. Maximum values (2948 ppm) occur while the cave is in gaseous recharging (April 2014) while the lowest concentration (735.5 ppm) is found in August 2014, when the soil production is buffered due to the high temperatures and scarce water.

Results highlight the narrow existing dependence between climate conditions and CO2 dynamics in the cave-soil-atmosphere system. The output of the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble,  under the RRCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,  predicts a relevant increase of temperature and a decrease in precipitation and relative humidity at the geographical coordinates of the cave surface throughout  the current century.  We are using this CMIP5 output to model the expected shift in season ventilation-recharge pattern and a potential reduction of the CO2 storage capacity in this semiarid region.

The use of GHGs as tracers of the coupling/uncoupling between natural processes and human activities in a Mediterranean Delta system

L. Cañas Ramírez (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), E. Vazquez, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), A. ÀGueda, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), P. Occhipinti, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), C. Grossi, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), R. Curcoll (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), M. Nofuentes Ramos (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), O. Batet, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), S. Borràs, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), X. Rodó (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain), J. A. Morgui (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
The use of GHGs as tracers of the coupling/uncoupling between natural processes and human activities in a Mediterranean Delta system

L. Cañas Ramírez (1) ; E. Vazquez, (1) ; A. ÀGueda, () ; P. Occhipinti, (1) ; C. Grossi, (1) ; R. Curcoll (1) ; M. Nofuentes Ramos () ; O. Batet, (1) ; S. Borràs, (1) ; X. Rodó () ; JA. Morgui (1)
(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Lab atmosphere & oceans, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

Delta ecosystems are important in many environmental aspects as they act like a buffer between terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Moreover, human activities control the basing hydrology and the overall watershed economy from the water in a resource perspective. Furthermore, the Delta environmental patchiness favors a high biodiversity standing on a delicate equilibrium.

The high sensibility of these ecosystems to small changes in environmental conditions, already under the pressure of human exploitation, might lead to abrupt changes on demographic dynamics of the inhabiting species, the migrant ones and the invasive ones. Under the threats of climate change, like reduced water discharge and the consequent salinization, increased temperature, increase in the incidence of droughts, etc., might amplify the effects of natural occurring cycles.

The detailed and continuous study of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) like CO2, CH4 and N2O as tracers of ecosystemic metabolic fluxes is a useful tool to discern the changes occurring along different temporal scales, from less than hours to years. Thus, they offer an excellent dataset to assess management, adaptation and mitigation policies on endangered deltas.

The Ebre River Delta is one of the largest wetland areas (over 300 Km2) in the North-Western Mediterranean region. This area presents a high diversity of ecosystems with rice fields, natural lagoons and marshes along the shoreline, conforming a highly patched landscape. Water management plays a relevant role in agricultural activity, birdlife habitat protection and GHGs sources and sinks.

A GHGs measurement station has been established at the Ebre River Delta Natural Park with the aim of studying climate interactions between land-surface and atmosphere by the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) within the framework of the ClimaDat project (www.climadat.es, funded by Obra Social “la Caixa”) and InGOS.

GHGs data obtained in this location provide thorough knowledge of the Ebro river delta and the coupling and uncoupling of human activities and natural cycles.

A Roadmap for Monitoring GHG Emissions Reduction in Brazil

M. Poppe, (Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Brasilia - DF, Brazil), M. Rocha, (Fabrica Ethica, Piracicaba - SP, Brazil)

Abstract details
A Roadmap for Monitoring GHG Emissions Reduction in Brazil

M. Poppe, (1) ; M. Rocha, (2)
(1) Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Sustainable development, Brasilia - DF, Brazil; (2) Fabrica Ethica, Piracicaba - SP, Brazil

Abstract content

The Brazilian government is developing and implementing a modular system to monitor, analyze and manage the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reductions achieved through the National Mitigation Plans (NMP) - SMMARE (in Portuguese: Sistema Modular de Monitoramento e Acompanhamento das Reduções das Emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa).

Since the NMP are in different stages of implementation and are substantially different in terms of mitigation actions, each NMP will have a Monitoring Module (MM) that will be implemented in different points of time. All MM will be based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, taking into consideration relevant national circumstances.

CGEE (a non-profit organization with the mission of rendering Science, Technology and Innovation as Brazil’s best allies for economic growth, competitiveness and well-being) has coordinated, under the supervision of the Environmental Ministry, a group of experts with wide experience on national GHG inventory planning, implementation and review, to develop each MM.

SMMARE was conceived during a one-year process with extensive and continuous dialogue with all the Ministries responsible for each NMP; and is being implemented based on 2 scenarios:

  • Possible scenario: in which, based on the existing data and/or data that can be easily obtained, the monitoring of GHG emissions reduction could be done in the short-term at the national level;
  • Ideal scenario: in which it would be necessary to improve the data collection in order to make the GHG emissions reduction monitoring in a more disaggregated level (e.g. emissions reduction at the territorial-unit level, due to decrease in deforestation; emissions reduction at the plant level due to implementation of a specific technology; etc.).

Finally, SMMARE is designed to be a tool to help the international consultation analysis (ICA) process to be conducted under UNFCCC, with the aim to increase the transparency of mitigation actions and their effects.

An Example of a Monitoring Module - One of the NMP that have been implemented and is obtaining good results is the Action Plan for Protection and Control of Deforestation in the Amazon (PPCDAm), under the responsibility of the Ministry of Environment. Since its implementation in 2004, deforestation rates in the Amazon region have been decreasing (a 84% reduction in 2012). With the aim of monitoring the GHG emissions reduction associated with the actions implemented by the PPCDAm, a specific MM is being developed based on a generic spatially explicit modeling framework to estimate carbon emissions from deforestation developed by the Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE-EM). An indicator for monitoring the GHG emissions reduction achieved by PPCDAm will be tons of CO2 reduced per hectare of avoid deforested areas. Preliminary results indicated that the total potential CO2 emission reduction from PPCDAm could be around 580 million tones by 2020, with an average value of 200 tones of biomass per hectare.

Interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 in Western Europe

M. Ramonet (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), M. Schmidt, (Institut für Umweltphysik, Heidelberg, Germany), M. Lopez, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), F. Apadula, (Research on Energy Systems, Milano, Italy), S. Conil, (ANDRA, Bure, France), A. H. Elyazidi (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), M. Delmotte, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), F. Gheusi, (Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France), O. Laurent, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), F. Meinhardt, (Umweltbundesamt, Kirchzarten, Germany), J. M. Pichon, (Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique, Clermont-Ferrand, France), G. Spain, (National University of Ireland, Galway, Ireland), J. Helle, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), V. Kazan, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), C. Vuillemin, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), C. Yver-Kwok, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), J. D. Paris, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), L. Rivier, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), P. Ciais (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

Abstract details
Interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 in Western Europe

M. Ramonet (1) ; M. Schmidt, (2) ; M. Lopez, (1) ; F. Apadula, (3) ; S. Conil, (4) ; AH. Elyazidi (1) ; M. Delmotte, (1) ; F. Gheusi, (5) ; O. Laurent, (1) ; F. Meinhardt, (6) ; JM. Pichon, (7) ; G. Spain, (8) ; J. Helle, (1) ; V. Kazan, (1) ; C. Vuillemin, (1) ; C. Yver-Kwok, (1) ; JD. Paris, (1) ; L. Rivier, (1) ; P. Ciais (1)
(1) LSCE, Cea/cnrs/uvsq, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) Institut für Umweltphysik, Heidelberg, Germany; (3) Research on Energy Systems, Environment and sustainable development department, Milano, Italy; (4) ANDRA, Observatoire pérenne de l'environnement, Bure, France; (5) Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire midi pyrénées, Toulouse, France; (6) Umweltbundesamt, Kirchzarten, Germany; (7) Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique, Opgc, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (8) National University of Ireland, Galway, Ireland

Abstract content

The space-time variations of trace gases in the atmosphere reflect the distribution of surface emissions, mixed by horizontal and vertical atmospheric transport. By using atmospheric tracers or/and models to quantify the intensity of the mixing, surface emissions can be resolved from the atmospheric measurements. The objective of our study is to characterize the CO2 and CH4 variations observed over Europe. We have analyzed the CO2 and CH4 molar fractions gradients between the continental stations in Western Europe and the Atlantic Ocean. The marine selected data from Mace-Head, Ireland, was used as a reference to define Atlantic Ocean background conditions. Long term (> 10 years) time series of DCO2 and DCH4 were calculated from Shauinsland, Plateau Rosa and Puy de Dôme. New monitoring stations set up in France provide a more detailed view of the gradients for the most recent years. The signals are characterized by a high year-to-year variability (up to 6 µmol.mol-1 for CO2), with a strong correlation between most of the stations. The latest winter (2013-2014) shows relatively low gradients at all sites, similarly to 2007-2008 winter season. Both winters correspond to a warm anomaly, associated to stronger Westerlies. Stronger advection and vertical mixing due to higher Westerlies seems to be the main reason for the low gradients observed in 2008 and 2014. However the interannual variability of the climate in Western Europe, also induce variations in trace gases exchange with terrestrial ecosystems and fossil fuel emissions. The objective of our analysis will be to discriminate between the contributions of atmospheric transport and surface emissions in the observed variability of DCO2 and DCH4 over Europe.

A dedicated monitoring network for greenhouse gases: SNO ICOS-France

M. Delmotte, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), M. Ramonet (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), V. Kazan, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), C. Vuillemin, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), P.-E. Blanc (CNRS, St Michel l'Observatoire, France), B. Burban (INRA, Cayenne, French Guiana), S. Conil, (ANDRA, Bure, France), A. Diawara (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), F. Gheusi, (Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France), J.-M. Metzger (CNRS & Universite de La Reunion, Saint Denis de la Reunion, France), J. M. Pichon, (Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique, Clermont-Ferrand, France)

Abstract details
A dedicated monitoring network for greenhouse gases: SNO ICOS-France

M. Delmotte, (1) ; M. Ramonet (1) ; V. Kazan, (1) ; C. Vuillemin, (1) ; PE. Blanc (2) ; B. Burban (3) ; S. Conil, (4) ; A. Diawara (5) ; F. Gheusi, (6) ; JM. Metzger (7) ; JM. Pichon, (8)
(1) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) CNRS, St Michel l'Observatoire, France; (3) INRA, Cayenne, French Guiana; (4) ANDRA, Observatoire pérenne de l'environnement, Bure, France; (5) University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (6) Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Observatoire midi pyrénées, Toulouse, France; (7) CNRS & Universite de La Reunion, Osu-reunion, Saint Denis de la Reunion, France; (8) Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique, Opgc, Clermont-Ferrand, France

Abstract content

Greenhouse gases (GHG) have been identified as the main actors of current climate change. Evolution of the atmospheric composition will drive our future climate and it is therefore essential to increase our knowledge of the global carbon cycle, to refine the carbon budget from global to regional and/or national scale and to precisely monitor the composition of the atmosphere.

Since the pioneer CO2 observation study conducted at Mauna Loa in the late fifties, atmospheric monitoring stations have been progressively deployed over most of the earth, mainly focusing on CO2 specie. Over the last decade a significant effort has been engaged to build real operational monitoring network including more monitored species (CO2, CH4, CO, N2O) and continuous recording (instead of flasks samples). In Europe, these efforts resulted in the foundation of the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) research infrastructure which is based on a harmonized and operational monitoring network including 16 countries.

As member and contributor to the ICOS infrastructure, France has a major role on the atmospheric component of the project through the GHG national network (SNO ICOS-France) and the atmospheric thematic center installed at LSCE. The French monitoring network consists of 12 observation stations including ground stations and high tower equipped with several sampling levels.

We will present the French monitoring network for GHG:

  • Network design and station location,
  • station set up and specifications,
  • instrumental set up and characteristics,
  • data treatment and quality control.

We will also give some example of scientific results obtained from chosen observations within the French monitoring network (altitudinal gradients, characteristic synoptic events, trends and seasonal varibility on long term records).

The French ICOS ecosystems stations : an overview

S. Lafont (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon cédex, France), D. Loustau (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), T. Tallec, (CESBIO, toulouse, France), D. Bonal, (INRA, Nancy, France), E. Ceschia (CESBIO, toulouse, France), A. Chabbi (INRA, Lusignan, France), S. Conil, (ANDRA, Bure, France), E. Dufrence, ( Université Paris Sud, orsay, France), S. Garrigues, (INRA, Avignon, France), R. Joffre, (CEFE, Montpellier, France), K. Klumpp (INRA, Clermont-Ferrand, France), B. Longdoz, (INRA, Nancy, France), B. Loubet, (INRA, Grignon, France), O. Marloie (INRA, avignon, France), B. Mary, (INRA, laon, France)

Abstract details
The French ICOS ecosystems stations : an overview

S. Lafont (1) ; D. Loustau (2) ; T. Tallec, (3) ; D. Bonal, (4) ; E. Ceschia (3) ; A. Chabbi (5) ; S. Conil, (6) ; E. Dufrence, (7) ; S. Garrigues, (8) ; R. Joffre, (9) ; K. Klumpp (10) ; B. Longdoz, (4) ; B. Loubet, (11) ; O. Marloie (8) ; B. Mary, (12)
(1) INRA, Bordeaux-ISPA, Villenave d'Ornon cédex, France; (2) INRA, ISPA, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (3) CESBIO, toulouse, France; (4) INRA, Nancy, France; (5) INRA, Lusignan, France; (6) ANDRA, Observatoire pérenne de l'environnement, Bure, France; (7) Université Paris Sud, orsay, France; (8) INRA, Avignon, France; (9) CEFE, Montpellier, France; (10) INRA, Urep, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (11) INRA, Grignon, France; (12) INRA, laon, France

Abstract content

The terrestrial biosphere interacts strongly with the climate, providing both positive and negative feedbacks due to biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes. To understand and predict the evolution of the climate, it is critical to understand both the contribution of vegetation to the greenhouse gases (GHG) budget and the response of the terrestrial biosphere to the changing climate.

The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS), a new European monitoring network, offers a unique way of documenting and quantifying long term changes in the GHG balance of ecosystems. The ICOS research infrastructure includes atmospheric, ecosystem and marine station networks. The Ecosystem station network (ESN) of ICOS is based on a large number of monitoring stations that will be maintained for the next 20 years. The ESN uses a large set of standardised instruments to perform continuous and intensive measurements of meteorological and micrometeorological variables. A central part of this measurement set is the eddy covariance measurement, that allows a continuous monitoring of the flux exchanged between vegetation and atmosphere. All together these standardised observations allow a better understanding of the functioning of ecosystems in relation to climate and management practices.

ICOS Ecosystems France, the French part of ESN is a cooperation of three research institutes: INRA, CNRS and ANDRA. ICOS Ecosystems France is extensive and includes eight observation stations ( 4 Class 1, 4 Class 2). In addition seven associated stations also contribute to the network. The network samples a wide range of ecosystems (forest, crop and grassland), of management practices and climates (from cold mountain climate to tropical humid in Guyana, including wet oceanic and dry Mediterranean climate).

 

We will provide an overview of the stations and the measurement system (sensors and data flow). We will equally present the current status of the network, recent measurements and preliminary findings.

 

Ground-based monitoring of greenhouse gases emissions over continental ecosystems: the ecosystem part of the ICOS European infrastructure

D. Loustau (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), S. Lafont (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), I. Janssens, (University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium), D. Papale, (University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy), R. Valentini (University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy), B. Gielen, (University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium), M. Op De Beek (University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium), T. M. T. Nguyen (University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium), R. Ceulemans, (University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium)

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Ground-based monitoring of greenhouse gases emissions over continental ecosystems: the ecosystem part of the ICOS European infrastructure

D. Loustau (1) ; S. Lafont (1) ; I. Janssens, (2) ; D. Papale, (3) ; R. Valentini (3) ; B. Gielen, (2) ; M. Op De Beek (2) ; TMT. Nguyen (2) ; R. Ceulemans, (2)
(1) INRA, ISPA, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (2) University of Antwerpen, Antwerpen, Belgium; (3) University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy

Abstract content

Since the discovery in the early nineties of a missing terrestrial sink of carbon in the global carbon cycle (Tans et al. 1990), there was a tremendous effort of observation of the continental part of the carbon cycle.  

The most recent estimate of its magnitude proposed by the Global Carbon Project reaches 10.6 GtC CO2±2.9 in 2014. The continental ecosystems contribute to attenuate the anthropogenic greenhouse gases enhancement by 29%.

This terrestrial sink is characterized by the large amplitude of its inter-annual variations and its ample uncertainty which makes it difficult to predict the future of the continental sink of carbon.

Inversion of atmospheric concentrations in greenhouse gases (GHG) and their temporal variations combined with atmospheric transport model allows characterizing the GHG exchanges at the continental surface at typical scale of 10 to 100 km.

Point measurements of the full GHG budget at half hourly resolution together with ancillary measurements on vegetation, management practices and soil permit to characterize the biogeochemical processes involved and their drivers. They are of utmost importance for understanding the GHG cycle and its sensitivity to environmental drivers on the long term.

Thus far, however, the inhomogeneity of methods, protocols and instruments used across ground observation networks have limited strongly our capacity to detect and observe the effects of environmental changes that are assumed to provoke changes in the GHG cycle. Indeed, the rate of pollutants deposition (Ozone, Nitrogen compounds), solar dimming, climate change and CO2 concentration enhancement not mentioning the secondary drivers are not monitored with sufficient accuracy and neither co-located in a sufficient number of stations for attributing clearly changes in the GHG budget of the main terrestrial ecosystems.  

From this conclusion, the European research strategy implemented through the ESFRI roadmap  was to build  a new world class infrastructure having the capacity  to coordinate and harmonise networks of ocean-, atmospheric- and ground-based stations equipped with identical instruments and operated according to the sale common protocols and standards, that is the ICOS infrastructure.

This communication will present the ICOS ecosystem network of stations and the Ecosystem Thematic Centre which collects and processes the measurements that are being operated across the station network. It will give few examples of the data obtained so far and show how they are being used for establishing robust GHG budgets of different ecosystems and their sensitivity to the environment, management practices and interaction.  

 

 

Le Quéré C. et al. 2014. Global Carbon budget 2014. Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., 6, 1-90, 2014.

Tans, P. P., I. Y. Fung and T. Takahashi (1990). "OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS ON THE GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CO2 BUDGET." Science 247(4949): 1431-1438.

               

 

Methodological Discrepancies in Measuring Agricultural Greenhouse Gases for Precise Estimation of National Emissions

M. I. Khalil (University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland), B. Osborne (University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland)

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Methodological Discrepancies in Measuring Agricultural Greenhouse Gases for Precise Estimation of National Emissions

MI. Khalil (1) ; B. Osborne (1)
(1) University College Dublin, Ucd earth institute, Dublin 4, Ireland

Abstract content

The main agricultural greenhouse gases (GHGs) - nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) -account for 10-12% of anthropogenic emissions globally, corresponding to ~ 60% and 50% of total anthropogenic emissions, respectively. Agricultural systems are highly diversified and complex, and that measured data covering all practices are very limited to estimate GHG emissions accurately at entity scales/system boudaries and thereby national levels, which is vital. This is to provide robust data for accounting, modeling, finding policy options and mitigation solutions with confidence, leading to achieve environmental sustainability and greater resilience in agricultural production. Special equipment, technical capacity and infrastructure required to measure actual GHG emissions from the source into the atmosphere are insufficient at global scales. These are associated with cost and complexity of methodologies as well as huge difficulty in measurement under field conditions. These result in large uncertainty due to sampling errors and the impact of soil, weather and other environmental variables including management-induced changes relative to background pools and fluxes.

Soil N2O emissions are extremely variable in time and space linking particularly to the practices that affect its fluxes in one soil alone or in association with climate/site-year more than in another. Accordingly, development/selection of existing but globally recognized methodology appropriate for a country should be chosen. It is to estimate changes in emissions accurately at the entity level but sufficiently generalizable for upscaling. There are several existing methods to measure N2O and CH4 emissions for example are: (i) intact soil cores under artificial environment without vegetation and simulated management practices, (ii) closed or open chamber measurements that are limited primarily by timing and frequency of gas samplings, (iii) automated chamber that represents the vegetation canopy and management practices inadequately, (iv) micrometeorological shows difficulty in differentiating the impact of land use and management practices at entity/boundary scales, and (v) isotope technique, which is very delicate and expensive.

Recently, tiered measuring approaches are proposed to capature both temporal and spatial variability of agricultural GHG fluxes including livestock and manure management systems coupling with the generation of ancillary data related to key variables in these systems. For precise estimation of national GHG emissions using practice-based scaling factors, a new hybrid approach i.e. coupling model with a measurement network of stratified monitoring sites with due consideration to key factors for example soil properties, land use type, nutrient and water management and climate influencing GHG emissions is likely to be most feasible and robust way forward to minimize uncertainty. Given the regulatory roles of the key influencing factors and variables, each measurement method has its advantages and disadvantages in providing the quantity of GHG emissions closer to reality. This paper illustrates the above issues to find a universally acceptable appropriate methodology to accurately measure and monitor GHGs from agricultural systems.

A proposed open international standard for GHG emissions and offsets

D. Bart (Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), Antwerp, Belgium), M. Jackson, (University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom), L. Mckee (Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), Wayland, Massachusetss, United States of America)

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A proposed open international standard for GHG emissions and offsets

D. Bart (1) ; M. Jackson, (2) ; L. Mckee (3)
(1) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), Antwerp, Belgium; (2) University of Nottingham, Professor of geospatial science, faculty of engineering, Nottingham, United Kingdom; (3) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), Wayland, Massachusetss, United States of America

Abstract content

The diversity of carbon calculators, protocols and registries currently makes it difficult to publish, discover, assess, access, aggregate, analyze and share geospatial and statistical information about GHG emissions and offsets. In recent years, facing similar diversity, the hydrology, aviation meteorology, climatology and geology communities have all developed consistent international open geospatial standards (WaterML 2.0, WXXM, netCDF and GeoSciML) for encoding those four types of data. Those standards are based on a shared framework of geospatial and temporal standards that make maximum use of Internet and Web technologies. GHG markets, treaties, science, and taxation and regulator regimes all await an expansion of that standards framework to encompass GHG emissions and GHG offset projects. International standards for geospatially consistent digital characterization of GHG emissions and offsets would add rigor to GHG science and management analysis and transparency to GHG transactions and compliance. The standards would also increase the value of GHG data immeasurably by fully leveraging the computational and communication power of the Internet and Web.

 

Virtually all of the data involved in GHG measurement and management activities has geospatial and temporal elements. The not-for-profit standards organizations Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) are already engaged together along with ISO with many other organizations in developing a unified platform of spatial environmental standards. 

 

We propose that public and private sector climate organizations commit a very small fraction of their budgets to developing open international encoding and interface standards that would enable efficient and effective integration of GHG data. Much of what needs to be measured and communicated has already been captured in current GHG standards, registries, protocols and calculators. The next step is to agree on common conceptual models for this data, using something like UML (Universal Modeling Language) diagrams. There will probably need to be a separate data model for each greenhouse gas, though the models will share many features and borrow significantly from standards such as WaterML 2.0. The conceptual models would provide a basis for different but interoperable implementation standards for computing platforms such as XML, JSON and REST, or CSV. 

 

Our talk, perhaps a keynote, would be focused on standards for encoding GHG data, but it wold also show how this proposed standard or set of standards is necessary for all types of environmental accounting. We would explain the methodology for developing such standards and explain why such standards are urgently needed as we enter "the environmental age".

Changing environmental controls affect the strength of the permafrost carbon feedback

C. Schaedel (Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States of America), M. Bader, (New Zealand Forest Research Institute, Rotorua, New Zealand), E. Schuur (Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States of America), R. Bracho, (University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, United States of America), P. Capek, (University of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic), B. S. De (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), K. Diakova, (University of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic), J. Ernakovich, (CSIRO, Glen Osmond, SA, Australia), I. Hartley (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), C. M. Iversen, (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States of America), E. Kane, (Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, United States of America), C. Knoblauch, (University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany), R. J. Norby, (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States of America), J. O'donnell (National Park Service, Anchorage, AK, United States of America), T. Roy Chowdhury (Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States of America), H. Santruckova, (University of South Bohemia, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic), G. Shaver, (Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA, United States of America), C. Treat, (United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States of America), M. Waldrop, (United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States of America), K. P. Wickland, (United States Geological Survey, Boulder, CO, United States of America)

Abstract details
Changing environmental controls affect the strength of the permafrost carbon feedback

C. Schaedel (1) ; M. Bader, (2) ; E. Schuur (1) ; R. Bracho, (3) ; P. Capek, (4) ; BS. De (5) ; K. Diakova, (4) ; J. Ernakovich, (6) ; I. Hartley (5) ; CM. Iversen, (7) ; E. Kane, (8) ; C. Knoblauch, (9) ; RJ. Norby, (7) ; J. O'donnell (10) ; T. Roy Chowdhury (11) ; H. Santruckova, (4) ; G. Shaver, (12) ; C. Treat, (13) ; M. Waldrop, (13) ; KP. Wickland, (14)
(1) Northern Arizona University, Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Flagstaff, AZ, United States of America; (2) New Zealand Forest Research Institute, Rotorua, New Zealand; (3) University of Florida, School of forest resources and conservation, Gainesville, FL, United States of America; (4) University of South Bohemia, Faculty of science, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic; (5) University of Exeter, Geography, college of life and environmental sciences, Exeter, United Kingdom; (6) CSIRO, Division of land and water, Glen Osmond, SA, Australia; (7) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental sciences division and climate change sciences institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States of America; (8) Michigan State University, Department of plant biology, East Lansing, MI, United States of America; (9) University of Hamburg, Institute of soil science, Hamburg, Germany; (10) National Park Service, Arctic network, Anchorage, AK, United States of America; (11) Pacific Northwest Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States of America; (12) Marine Biological Laboratory, The ecosystem center, Woods Hole, MA, United States of America; (13) United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States of America; (14) United States Geological Survey, Boulder, CO, United States of America

Abstract content

As the global climate warms the Arctic is experiencing rapid increases in temperature causing permafrost (perennially frozen ground) to thaw and thereby exposing large quantities of previously frozen organic matter to microbial decomposition. High latitude ecosystems store almost twice as much carbon in soils and permafrost than what is currently contained in the atmosphere. Warmer temperatures in the Arctic will not only increase carbon emissions from previously frozen organic matter in the permafrost zone but also indirectly affect the carbon cycle through changes in regional and local hydrology. As permafrost degrades due to warming, soil drying will occur in upland ecosystems as a result of increased natural drainage as the water table moves further down. On the contrary, low lying areas can turn into anoxic environments as the topography and the underlying permafrost layer prevent runoff. These changes in soil surface hydrology and oxygen availability in permafrost ecosystems have broad impacts on the amount and form (carbon dioxide or methane) of carbon release from newly thawed permafrost and have the potential to further increase the permafrost carbon feedback. In order to successfully include the permafrost carbon feedback into models relevant to IPCC reports it is important to provide data sets that serve as constraints for complex models assessing the carbon-climate feedback from high latitude soils.   

 

We have compiled a database of 26 incubation studies with soils from active layer and permafrost from across the entire permafrost zone to quantify a) the effect size of increasing temperatures and b) the changes from aerobic to anaerobic environmental soil conditions on carbon release from permafrost. Results from two different meta-analyses show that a 10°C increase in temperature increased carbon release by a factor of two in the three most important permafrost ecosystems (boreal forest, peatland and tundra). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released on average 3.4 times more carbon than under anaerobic conditions which was consistent for all three ecosystems as well as for soils with different organic carbon concentrations. While the lack of oxygen in anaerobic incubations reduced the amount of total carbon release it increased the amount of the more potent greenhouse gas methane. Even if accounting for the higher global warming potential of methane one unit of soil released more than twice as much carbon under aerobic incubation conditions than under anaerobic conditions.

 

This pan-arctic synthesis shows that carbon release from newly thawed organic matter in high latitude ecosystems is highly affected by increasing temperatures but that changes in soil moisture and oxygen availability have an even larger impact on carbon release. The permafrost carbon feedback is stronger in an aerobic environment as the faster decomposition offsets the higher heat trapping capacity of methane occurring under anaerobic conditions over a 100-year timescale.

Seasonal and inter-annual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-Chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

L. Meng (Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI, United States of America), R. Paudel, (Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America), P. G. M. Hess, (Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America), N. M. Mahowald, (Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America)

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Seasonal and inter-annual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated by CLM4Me' and CAM-Chem and comparisons to observations of concentrations

L. Meng (1) ; R. Paudel, (2) ; PGM. Hess, (3) ; NM. Mahowald, (3)
(1) Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI, United States of America; (2) Cornell University, Earth and atmospheric sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States of America; (3) Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States of America

Abstract content

Understanding the temporal and spatial variation of wetland methane emissions is essential to the estimation of the global methane budget. We examine the seasonal and inter-annual variability in wetland methane emissions simulated in the Community Land Model (CLM4Me¢). Methane emissions from both the Carbon-Nitrogen (CN, i.e. CLM4.0) and the Biogeochemistry (BGC, i.e. CLM4.5) versions of the CLM are evaluated. We further conduct simulations of the transport and removal of methane using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM-chem) model using CLM4Me¢ methane emissions from both CN and BGC along with other methane sources and compare model simulated atmospheric methane concentration with observations.  In addition, we simulate the atmospheric concentrations based on the TransCom wetland and rice paddy emissions from a different terrestrial ecosystem model VISIT. Our analysis suggests CN wetland methane emissions are higher in tropics and lower in high latitudes than BGC. In CN, methane emissions decrease from 1993 to 2004 while this trend does not appear in the BGC version. In the CN versions, methane emission variations follow satellite-derived inundation wetlands closely. However, they are dissimilar in BGC due to its different carbon cycle. CAM-chem model simulations with CLM4Me¢ methane emissions suggest that both prescribed anthropogenic and predicted wetlands methane emissions contribute substantially to seasonal and inter-annual variability in atmospheric methane concentration. It also suggests that different spatial patterns of wetland emissions can have significant impacts on N-S atmospheric CH4 concentration gradients and growth rates. This study suggests that large uncertainties still exist in terms of spatial patterns and magnitude of global wetland methane budgets, and that substantial uncertainty comes from the carbon model underlying the methane flux modules. 

What you see is not what you get: the permafrost carbon feedback in the context of climate stabilization and reversibility

E. Burke (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), C. Jones (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), P. Good (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
What you see is not what you get: the permafrost carbon feedback in the context of climate stabilization and reversibility

E. Burke (1) ; C. Jones (1) ; P. Good (1)
(1) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Permafrost soils contain large amounts of relatively inert soil carbon, a proportion of which is projected to thaw and become vulnerable to decomposition under future climate change. This paper utilises a series of idealised scenarios - where the surface temperatures are increased, stabilised and reduced - to highlight the implications of the timescale of response of the permafrost carbon to changes in climate and the potential for (ir)reversible loss of carbon. Patterns of warming are based on the HadGEM2-ES climate model. Uncertainty ranges in permafrost carbon loss are estimated using a simple model that accounts for uncertainties in the distribution of soil carbon, its lability and different plausible decomposition mechanisms. Under scenarios of steadily increasing temperature only a proportion of the carbon vulnerable to decomposition is emitted at any given time, because of a time lag in decomposition. The proportion of vulnerable carbon released at any given level of warming depends on the rate of past warming. Faster transient warming causes less of the vulnerable carbon to be emitted than a slower increase. In a scenario where the global warming reaches 2.6 K over a period of 70 years only about 30 % of the 70 - 230 Gt C vulnerable to decomposition has been emitted. However, if temperatures are stabilised, then the majority of the remaining vulnerable carbon will be emitted over the next 200 years causing an eventual additional temperature increase of 0.1-0.6 K. If the permafrost is allowed to recover (by reducing temperatures) causing the vulnerable carbon to refreeze some of the permafrost carbon loss can be avoided depending on the peak warming and the rate of subsequent cooling. The contribution of permafrost carbon needs to be included when assessing targets for stabilisation and developing policies designed to avoid dangerous climate change.

The biggest terrestrial tipping point or a potential carbon sink? 124 experts weigh in on the permafrost carbon feedback

B. Abbott (Université de Rennes 1, Rennes, Brittany, France)

Abstract details
The biggest terrestrial tipping point or a potential carbon sink? 124 experts weigh in on the permafrost carbon feedback

B. Abbott (1) ; E. Schuur (2) ; JB. Jones, (3) ; FS. Chapin Iii (3) ; .. Permafrost Carbon Network (2)
(1) Observatoire des Sciences de l’Univers de Rennes, Rennes, France; (2) Northern Arizona University, Center for ecosystem science and society, Flagstaff, AZ, United States of America; (3) University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of arctic biology and department of biology & wildlife, Fairbanks, United States of America

Abstract content

Arctic tundra and boreal forest contain approximately half of all terrestrial organic carbon. As the permafrost region warms, more of this immense carbon pool will be exposed to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. This permafrost carbon feedback has been described as the largest terrestrial feedback to climate change as well as one of the most likely to occur; however, it is not included in current emissions negotiations and estimates of its strength vary by a factor of thirty. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased Arctic and boreal biomass, but the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets with serious societal and environmental consequences. Because precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, we collected expert judgments from 124 permafrost-region scientists of the response of high-latitude carbon balance to four warming scenarios. Experts provided quantitative estimates of CO2 and CH4 release, change in biomass, wildfire CO2 emissions, and hydrologic carbon flux by 2040, 2100, and 2300. Results suggest that, contrary to current model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon emissions from wildfire could increase four-fold. For the business as usual scenario (RCP 8.5), experts hypothesized that the permafrost zone could emit 14 to 40% of the carbon necessary to push the climate system beyond the 2C threshold by the end of the century (140 to 240 Gt CO2 equivalent) with cumulative net emissions reaching 320 to 510 Gt by 2300. However, because lower warming scenarios resulted in less carbon release from soils and more carbon uptake by Arctic and boreal biomass, results suggest that 65 to 85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are rapidly reduced.

Feedbacks between climate change and the terrestrial biosphere

B. D. Stocker (Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom), S. Williams, (Imperial College, London, United Kingdom), I. C. Prentice (Imperial College London, Ascot, United Kingdom)

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Feedbacks between climate change and the terrestrial biosphere

BD. Stocker (1) ; S. Williams, (2) ; IC. Prentice (1)
(1) Imperial College London, Department of Life Sciences, Ascot, United Kingdom; (2) Imperial College, Physics department, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Land ecosystems are absorbing ~25% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions but emit a range of other greenhouse-gases and indirectly regulate their concentrations in the atmosphere through the emission of chemically active compounds. Terrestrial greenhouse-gas emission rates and the energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere are sensitive to climate and atmospheric CO2 and thus represent a feedback to anthropogenic climate change. Recent research using coupled Earth System Models has demonstrated that land-based feedbacks may amplify climate change through positive feedbacks that have previously not been accounted for. Here, we present a comprehensive compilation of feedback strength estimates from individual land-mediated forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, albedo, etc.) and their interactions based on observational data and Earth system modeling. Today, the dominant negative feedback arising from the CO2-stimulated land C sink compensates smaller positive feedbacks from non-CO2 forcing agents. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, these positive feedbacks exert an increasingly strong additional warming. Anthropogenic land use change and inputs of reactive nitrogen by atmospheric deposition and fertilizers act to further shift the balance of feedbacks towards more positive values. This may be mitigated by protection of forest ecosystems and a more efficient use of mineral fertilizers in agriculture.

Response of Soil Carbon Storage to Temperature and Carbon Input Variability in Earth System Models

K. Georgiou (University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), W. J. Riley (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), M. S. Torn (Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, California, United States of America)

Abstract details
Response of Soil Carbon Storage to Temperature and Carbon Input Variability in Earth System Models

K. Georgiou (1) ; WJ. Riley (2) ; MS. Torn ()
(1) University of California, Berkeley, Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (2) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Climate and carbon sciences, Berkeley, CA, United States of America

Abstract content

Soil comprises the largest terrestrial carbon pool, containing more than double the carbon currently in the atmosphere and triple that in vegetation. Soil organic matter (SOM) is particularly vulnerable to environmental change, with potential carbon-climate and carbon-concentration feedbacks resulting from soil warming, CO2 fertilization, nitrogen (N) enrichment, and precipitation. These changes are expected to influence SOM decomposition and stabilization processes, thereby threatening the soil’s capacity to serve as a carbon (C) sink. Earth system models (ESMs) currently use linear kinetics to represent soil C dynamics, and therefore lack explicit representation of the non-linear biotic and abiotic mechanisms that govern soil processes. As such, ESMs exhibit high uncertainty in their simulated current and future soil C storage. Recent studies have shown that explicit representation of microbial and mineral interactions improve estimates of current global C stocks and better capture spatial heterogeneity. These microbe-enabled SOM models also better represent non-linear responses to changes in soil temperature and C inputs (e.g., priming of old SOM in response to increased soil C inputs) that have been observed in many field and laboratory experiments.

 

Although recent work has explored the feasibility of incorporating microbial and mineral mechanisms into SOM models within ESMs, most of these models lack explicit representation of nutrient cycling (nitrogen and phosphorus) and seasonal variability (temperature, C inputs, and moisture). Omitting nitrogen cycling significantly affects simulated global priming responses to elevated CO2 concentrations, as nitrogen availability plays an important role in dictating microbial activity in nutrient-constrained environments. Thus far, microbe-enabled SOM models within ESMs have also largely ignored the effect of temporal forcing on soil C dynamics, representing seasonal and diurnal temperature, C and N inputs, and moisture with annual averages. These simplified model input assumptions, however, omit the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations that microbial communities undergo in response to environmental conditions, greatly affecting the prediction of soil C equilibria and dynamics in ESMs. For example, a significant amount of soil respiration can occur during winter, while soils sampled in the summer (with different microbial composition) do not show respiration at winter temperatures. Leaf litter (primarily in the fall) and root exudates (throughout the growing season) support different microbial strategies depending on the type and duration of inputs. Global environmental change will affect the seasonality of these processes, which cannot be resolved by annual averages.

 

In this study we demonstrate that the frequency at which the system is resolved matters, i.e., that the seasonality and magnitude of temperature, and C and N inputs greatly impact the magnitude and sign of model response to climate change. We incorporate a trait-based, microbial-mineral, SOM model into the vertically-resolved Community Land Model (CLM4.5) of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and present simulated current and future global C stocks that result from including seasonal forcing. We explicitly represent microbial diversity and physiology in our SOM model, allowing microbes with distinct temperature and C input optima to dominate decomposition at different times of the year when forced with seasonal temperature and C inputs from CLM4.5. We show that this temporal variability plays an important role in the diverse responses attained at sites with similar mean annual temperatures, but very different seasonality. The results of our vertically-resolved model also show that surface and deep soils’ distinct diurnal and seasonal temperature fluctuations greatly affect their respective C storage capacity and vulnerability to global warming. We compare our model to the conventional SOM model within the CESM and to global observations from the Harmonized World Soil Database, and discuss improvements in estimating global and regional C storage and their response to anthropogenic climate change. 

Topography and geochemistry influence methane response to permafrost thaw

L. Smith (University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), M. Conrad, (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), M. S. Torn (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), B. Markus (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), J. Curtis, (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), O. Chafe, (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America)

Abstract details
Topography and geochemistry influence methane response to permafrost thaw

L. Smith (1) ; M. Conrad, (2) ; MS. Torn (3) ; B. Markus (2) ; J. Curtis, (2) ; O. Chafe, (2)
(1) University of California Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (2) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (3) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States of America

Abstract content

Arctic wetlands are currently net sources of atmospheric CH4. CH4 emissions in Arctic tundra vary widely in space and time, with proximate controls—substrate availability, competition for substrate among decomposition processes, CH4 oxidation, and CH4 transport—dependent on local climate, soil, hydrology, and biology. These complex controls and high spatial and temporal variability make it difficult to characterize current CH4 processes and predict their responses to climate change. We investigated these processes in Arctic polygon tundra, across a permafrost thaw gradient from low-centered (intact) polygons to flat- and high-centered (degraded) polygons. We asked: (1) how do CH4 production and consumption vary with permafrost thaw and microtopographic feature, and (2) how do subsurface CH4 processes relate to surface CH4 and CO2 fluxes? We made measurements in 3 microtopographic features (polygon centers, rims, and troughs) across the permafrost thaw gradient.  Measurements included surface CH4 and CO2 fluxes, concentrations and stable isotope compositions of CH4 and DIC at 3 depths in the soil profile, and soil moisture and temperature.  We found clear patterns in CH4 processes with permafrost degradation, as well as polygon feature and month. More degraded sites had lower CH4 emissions, a different primary methanogenic pathway, and greater CH4 oxidation than intact permafrost sites, to a greater degree than soil moisture or temperature could explain. Surface CH4 flux decreased from 190 nmol m-2 s-1 in intact polygons to 9 nmol m-2 s-1 in degraded polygons. Stable isotope signatures of CH4 and DIC showed that acetate cleavage dominated CH4 production in low-centered polygons, while CO2 reduction was the primary pathway in degraded polygons. We see evidence that distinct patterns of water flow and geochemistry between intact and degraded polygons contribute to these observations, through transport of redox-active species among high-centered polygon features. These findings suggest that future Arctic tundra CH4 emissions will depend not only on profile-scale changes in soil moisture and inundation, but also on the effect of warming on larger-scale geomorphic, geochemical, and hydrologic factors. Wetland drainage due to ice wedge degradation may reduce CH4 emissions across the landscape, even in inundated inter-polygon troughs. 

Contribution of Carbon, Nitrogen and Climate Interactions to Terrestrial Carbon Uptake

A. Jain (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States of America), S. Shu (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States of America)

Abstract details
Contribution of Carbon, Nitrogen and Climate Interactions to Terrestrial Carbon Uptake

A. Jain (1) ; S. Shu (1)
(1) University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL, United States of America

Abstract content

There is compelling evidence showing that terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net carbon (C) sink in recent decades. However there is a large uncertainty regarding the magnitude and location of the C sink, predominantly due to large uncertainties associated with C emissions from land use change and our limited understanding of processes affecting plant C sequestration, such as CO2 fertilization effect, impact of changing climate conditions on plant and soil respirations and the interaction of N dynamics with carbon and climate change. This presentation focuses on understanding and assessing the interactions between the C cycle, N cycle and climate and how they might impact terrestrial C sources and sinks in the context of changing global environment (particularly, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]), climate change, N deposition and land use change) by using a global terrestrial C-N cycle model in the modeling framework of the Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM). The ISAM model to be used here has been calibrated based on in situ data (Ameriflux and LBA field campaign). The model is also evaluated with two sets of global GPP data, MODIS and FLUXNETMTE. Analysis on the results of this study suggests that responses of available N in terrestrial ecosystems to global environmental changes might have not significantly affected the net global amount of terrestrial C uptake over the last three decades, but these N responses have a strong influence on the spatial and temporal distribution of predicted C sequestration as are the influences of global environmental changes.

Modeling high-Arctic permafrost thawing impact on greenhouse gas exchange in Northeast Greenland

W. Zhang (Lund University, Lund, Sweden), E. Bo (University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark), G. Schurgers, (University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark), J. Hollesen (University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark), P.-E. Jansson (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden), P. Miller (Lund University, Lund, Sweden), B. Smith (Lund University, Lund, Sweden)

Abstract details
Modeling high-Arctic permafrost thawing impact on greenhouse gas exchange in Northeast Greenland

W. Zhang (1) ; E. Bo (2) ; G. Schurgers, (2) ; J. Hollesen (2) ; PE. Jansson (3) ; P. Miller (1) ; B. Smith (1)
(1) Lund University, Department of physical geography and ecosystem science, Lund, Sweden; (2) University of Copenhagen, Department of geosciences and natural resource management, Copenhagen, Denmark; (3) Royal Institute of Technology, Department of land and water resources engineering, Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract content

Frozen organic carbon stored in northern permafrost soils may become vulnerable due to the rapid warming of the Arctic. The loss of carbon through the emissions of CO2 and CH4 may imply a critical warming potential, resulting in positive feedbacks to global climate change. However, positive and negative feedback dynamics associated with thawing permafrost and ecosystem biogeochemistry on a landscape scale is still unclear. Here, we combine two contrasting modeling techniques to model the high-Arctic ecosystems in Northeast Greenland. Firstly, the Coup (Coupled Heat and Mass Transfer Model for soil-plant-atmosphere system) model is validated with three years’ measurements of active layer depth and soil carbon content. Secondly, to account for the transient impacts of climate change to potential vegetation dynamics, we employ the leaf area index, projective cover fraction and climatic forcing produced by a regional Earth system model (RCA-GUESS), which simulates climate as well as vegetation dynamics, as the driving data to the Coup model to project future active layer depth and greenhouse gas exchange. Comparing to the Coup model driven with static vegetation properties of the validation period, we are able to quantify the effects of vegetation dynamics on the magnitude and timing of active layer depth, and ecosystem greenhouse gas exchange in the high-Arctic subject to the scenarios in different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) as simulated with the regional Earth system model.

Effects of nitrogen deposition on photosynthesis of an alpine meadow ecosystem in Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

L. Zhang (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China), S. Yan (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Effects of nitrogen deposition on photosynthesis of an alpine meadow ecosystem in Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

L. Zhang (1) ; S. Yan (1)
(1) Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling, Beijing, China

Abstract content

Responses of leaf and canopy photosynthesis to global change play an important role in global carbon cycling. Due to human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels, the extensive use of farmland ecosystem nitrogen and continuous development of animal husbandry, the nitrogen input level into ecosystem increases significantly. However, the effects of increasing atmospheric nitrogen deposition on leaf and canopy photosynthesis of grassland ecosystems in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are unclear. In this study, we measured leaf nitrogen content, photosynthesis, and leaf area index in an alpine meadow ecosystem in Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, based on a multi-form N addition experiment. Maximum rates of carboxylation (Vcmax) and electron transport (Jmax) were calculated from A-Ci curves measured with an LI-6400 portable photosynthesis system. The results showed that leaf nitrogen content in Stipa aliena growing with a high-level nitrogen input (40 kg N ha−1 yr−1) increased by 6.2% and 9.7 % in 2012 and 2013. Vcmax and Jmax at 25oC increased by 46.5% and 39.8% in 2012, 37.9% and 25.4% in 2013, respectively. Meanwhile, leaf area index of the alpine meadow ecosystem also had an increase of 45.0% in 2012 and 21.9% in 2013. Positive effects of nitrogen addition on leaf nitrogen content, leaf photosynthetic capacity, and canopy leaf area undoubtedly resulted in an increase in gross primary production of the alpine meadow ecosystem. 

Effects of multiple global environmental changes and fire on soil greenhouse gas emissions: feedbacks to climate change

A. Niboyet (AgroParisTech, Thiverval-Grignon, France), J. Brown (Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, United States of America), P. Dijkstra (Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, United States of America), J. Blankinship (Earth Research Institute, Santa Barbara, United States of America), K. J. Van Groenigen (Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, United States of America), X. Le Roux (INRA, Villeurbanne, France), P. Leadley (Université Paris-Sud, Orsay, France), L. Barthes (Université Paris-Sud, Orsay, France), R. Barnard (INRA, Dijon, France), C. Field (Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII, Stanford, CA, United States of America), B. Hungate (Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, United States of America)

Abstract details
Effects of multiple global environmental changes and fire on soil greenhouse gas emissions: feedbacks to climate change

A. Niboyet (1) ; J. Brown (2) ; P. Dijkstra (2) ; J. Blankinship (3) ; KJ. Van Groenigen (2) ; X. Le Roux (4) ; P. Leadley (5) ; L. Barthes (5) ; R. Barnard (6) ; C. Field (7) ; B. Hungate (2)
(1) AgroParisTech, Institute of ecology and environmental sciences - paris, Thiverval-Grignon, France; (2) Northern Arizona University, Biological sciences, Flagstaff, United States of America; (3) Earth Research Institute, Eemb, Santa Barbara, United States of America; (4) INRA, Laboratoire d'ecologie microbienne, Villeurbanne, France; (5) Université Paris-Sud, Laboratoire ecologie, systématique et evolution, Orsay, France; (6) INRA, Umr agroécologie, Dijon, France; (7) Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII, Stanford, CA, United States of America

Abstract content

Global environmental changes are expected to alter ecosystem carbon and nitrogen cycling, but the combined effects of multiple simultaneous environmental changes are poorly understood. Furthermore, little is known about the combined effects of chronic global environmental changes and ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning. In particular, these combined effects on soil emissions of greenhouse gases might be critical as they could accelerate climate change.

 

We assessed the responses of soil nitrous oxide (N2O) production, an important greenhouse gas, to elevated CO2, warming, increased precipitation, and enhanced nitrogen deposition, as well as their interactions, in an annual grassland as part of the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (CA, USA). In addition, we took advantage of an accidental, low-severity wildfire that burned part of this long-term global change experiment to investigate the interactive effects of a fire disturbance and chronic global environmental changes on soil N2O emissions. We examined the responses of soil N2O emissions, as well as the responses of the two main microbial processes contributing to soil N2O production – nitrification and denitrification – and of their main drivers.

 

We found that elevated precipitation increased soil N2O emissions, especially in combination with added nitrogen and warming. Furthermore, we show that the fire disturbance greatly increased soil N2O emissions over a three-year period, and that elevated CO2 and enhanced nitrogen supply amplified fire effects on soil N2O emissions: emissions increased by a factor of two with fire alone and by a factor of six under the combined influence of fire, elevated CO2 and nitrogen. We then provide evidence that these responses were caused by increased microbial denitrification, resulting from increased soil moisture and soil carbon and nitrogen availability.

 

Our results indicate that the combined effects of multiple simultaneous environmental changes and fire can exceed their effects in isolation, thereby creating unexpected feedbacks to soil greenhouse gas emissions. In our data and across the literature, single-factor responses tended to overestimate interactive responses, except when global change was combined with disturbance by fire, in which case interactive effects were large. Thus, for chronic global environmental changes, higher order interactions dampened responses of N2O emissions to multiple global environmental changes, but interactions were strongly positive when global change was combined with disturbance.

 

These findings highlight the need to further explore the impacts of ecological disturbances on ecosystem functioning in the context of global change to see how much these combined impacts might play critical roles in shaping ecosystem processes that in turn feed back to climate change. 

Spatial distribution of atmospheric variability of greenhouse gases measured at the IC3 climatic stations

C. Grossi (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), R. Curcoll (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), A. ÀGueda, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), O. Batet, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), S. Borràs, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), L. Cañas Ramírez (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), M. Nofuentes Ramos (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), P. Occhipinti, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), E. Vazquez, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), X. Rodó (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), J. A. Morgui (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Spatial distribution of atmospheric variability of greenhouse gases measured at the IC3 climatic stations

C. Grossi (1) ; R. Curcoll (1) ; A. ÀGueda, (1) ; O. Batet, (1) ; S. Borràs, (1) ; L. Cañas Ramírez (1) ; M. Nofuentes Ramos (1) ; P. Occhipinti, (1) ; E. Vazquez, (1) ; X. Rodó (1) ; JA. Morgui (1)
(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

Changes in the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) content results as a combinationof natural and anthropogenic factors. Understanding the GHGs composition, theiratmospheric variability and its effect on climate change is necessary for mitigation andadaptation strategies. Indeed, GHGs variability is strongly related to the climaticconditions and closely dependent on the latitude.

In the framework of the ClimaDat project funded by Fundació Obra Social “la Caixa”.researchers at the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences (IC3) have established anetwork of eight climatic stations across Spain performing continuous high-precisionobservations of CH4, CO2, N2O concentrations together with meteorological variables.The climatic stations are located in protected and remote areas within Spanish NaturalParks with middle latitudes ranging between 33N and 41N (Ebre River Delta, Xurès, Valderejo, Gredos, Grazalema, Segura, El Estrecho and El Hierro).

Analysis of the atmospheric variability of GHGs concentration is performed at eachstation of the ClimaDat network. The study of the influence of the atmosphericcirculation on GHGs observations is carried out by a source characterization of the airmasses and their pathways using experimental meteorological data, daily backtrajectories and cluster analysis. The observed GHGs concentrations at differentlatitudes and under different climatic conditions are analyzed and presented in thisstudy.

Constraining the strength of the terrestrial CO2 fertilization effect in Earth system models

V. Arora (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, Canada)

Abstract details
Constraining the strength of the terrestrial CO2 fertilization effect in Earth system models

V. Arora (1)
(1) Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, Canada

Abstract content

The response of the global carbon cycle to future atmospheric emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is paramount to projecting the future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the resulting climate change. Yet, the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs) show widely varying responses of the global carbon cycle to future increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions. A large fraction of the differences in response of the ESMs is due to the land carbon cycle. The response of the ocean carbon cycle, to changes in atmospheric CO2 and changing climate, is much more consistent across ESMs.  Over land, the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect is biggest source of uncertainty that contributes to the large differences in response of the land carbon cycle. Here, using results from the three generations of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM1, CanESM2, CanESM 4.2) it is shown that the net land carbon uptake over the historical period and the amplitude of the annual cycle of the atmospheric CO2 concentration may be used together to constrain the strength of the terrestrial CO2 fertilization effect. Uncertainty exists in land use change emissions over the historical period, and thus the estimate of historical land carbon uptake, and monthly global atmospheric CO2 data go back only to the 1980s. These limitations imply that both the net land carbon uptake over the historical period and the amplitude of the annual cycle of the atmospheric CO2 concentration provide not-too-strong, but still meaningful, constraints on the strength of the CO2 fertilization effect of the land carbon cycle.

Multidecadal variability of subsurface oxygenation off the Central Peruvian Coast since the nineteenth century

D. Gutierrez Aguilar (Instituto del Mar del Perú, IMARPE, Callao, Peru), J. Cardich (Universidad Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, Brazil), C. Almeida, (Universidad Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, Brazil), R. Salvatteci, (Kiel University, Kiel, Germany), D. Romero, (Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru), A. Sifeddine (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IRD, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Multidecadal variability of subsurface oxygenation off the Central Peruvian Coast since the nineteenth century

D. Gutierrez Aguilar (1) ; J. Cardich (2) ; C. Almeida, (2) ; R. Salvatteci, (3) ; D. Romero, (4) ; A. Sifeddine (5)
(1) Instituto del Mar del Perú, IMARPE, Dirección General de Investigaciones en Oceanografía y Cambio Climático, Callao, Peru; (2) Universidad Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, Brazil; (3) Kiel University, Institute of geosciences, Kiel, Germany; (4) Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Maestría en ciencias del mar, Lima, Peru; (5) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IRD, Umr locean (ird/upmc/cnrs/mnhn), Paris, France

Abstract content

Subsurface and benthic biogeochemical conditions over the upper Peruvian continental margin are characterized by oxygen deficiency in the bottom waters, strong fluxes of settling organic matter and reducing conditions in the surface sediments. Previous work has shown a multidecadal cooling trend in the surface waters off Central Peru, and an increase of export productivity, particularly since the 1960’s  to the present, suggesting an intensification of coastal upwelling. The present study aims to reconstruct the coeval variation of subsurface oxygenation and benthic paleo-redox conditions for the last two centuries, based on laminated sedimentary records of benthic foraminiferal assemblages and redox-sensitive metals (Mo, Re, etc.) in the upper margin off Callao (12°S) and Pisco (14°S). The period between the mid to the late nineteenth century, during which there was an enhanced ENSO activity and paleo-temperatures were higher, was characterized by the occurrence of massive diatom-rich sedimentation events and development of bottom anoxia. Afterwards, decadal variations marked the changes of the proxy records since the late nineteenth century to the mid-twentieth century. Finally for the late twentieth century until the early 2000’s, redox-sensitive metal records and benthic foraminiferal assemblages exhibited a trend towards less reducing conditions. This period also featured an increase of organic matter sedimentation and a declining trend of siliceous sedimentation. Our findings suggest that pelagic-benthic fluxes, vertical mixing and/or subsurface ventilation are important factors that modulate the subsurface oxygenation and benthic redox conditions in the Peruvian upwelling system.

The long-term effect of short-lived species through the climate-carbon feedback

T. Gasser (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), P. Ciais (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

Abstract details
The long-term effect of short-lived species through the climate-carbon feedback

T. Gasser (1) ; P. Ciais (1)
(1) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Abstract content

This work aims to quantify and discuss the impact of short-lived species on the carbon-cycle and through the climate-carbon feedback. It proceeds in three steps. First, we isolate the climate-carbon feedback and its contribution to the currently observed, human-driven, change in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Second, we attribute this feedback to its various anthropogenic causes following the concentration-based attribution of radiative forcing provided by the IPCC. To do so, we updated the compact Earth system model OSCAR to its version 2.2, and we use it combined with attribution algorithms developed to answer the Brazilian Proposal (Trudinger and Enting, 2005; doi: 10.1007/s10584-005-6012-2).

In the first step, the model is used as a carbon-cycle model in which the sensitivity of the ocean and land modules were calibrated on complex three-dimensional models used in CMIP5 (Arora et al., 2013; doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00494.1). Using  three historical drivers: (1) anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning, (2) land-use and land-cover changes, and (3) reconstructed climate, the historical change in atmospheric CO2 is shown to be satisfactorily reproduced by the model. This change in atmospheric CO2 is then attributed to the three drivers. As best guesses, we find that the observed  2008 burden increase of 107 ppm is attributed at 56% to fossil-fuel emissions, at 28% to land-use activities, and at 16% to climate change.

In the second step,  we expand the model with a climate module whose global and local responses to radiative forcing are also calibrated on CMIP5 outputs (Geoffroy et al., 2013; doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00195.1). Using the radiative forcing timeseries produced for the fifth IPCC report (Myhre et al., 2013), we repeat the previous experiment, albeit this time the contribution of "climate change" is further broken-down into contributions by the various primary and secondary radiatively active species: CO2, non-CO2 greenhouse gases, ozone or aerosols. Of the 17 ppm (= 16% of 107 ppm) previously attributed to climate change, we estimate 79% are caused by non-CO2 greenhouse gases, -57% by short-lived species (ozone and aerosols), and the complementary 78% by CO2 itself.

The overall negative figure from short-lived species is explained by the dominance (among the various effects of the these species) of the cooling effect of aerosols. Over the historical period, we show that this cooling avoided a reduction in the carbon sinks efficiency that would have been seen if only CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouses gases had been emitted. To complete this analysis, we make a third experiment with a slightly altered model designed to keep track of past changes in the carbon-climate system. This "book-keeping" approach shows that past emissions of short-lived species still have an impact on present-day atmospheric CO2, and thus on present-day climate. For instance, we estimate that sulfur emissions from the 1980s have an impact of about -2 ppm over the 107 ppm observed in 2008.

To conclude, this study quantifies one of the indirect biogeochemical effect of aerosols (and ozone), as first introduced by Mahowald (2011; doi:10.1126/science.1207374). It provides an emission-based analysis of the causes of the change in CO2 atmospheric concentration (and thus of its radiative forcing), similarly to what was done for CH4 or O3 in the last IPCC report (Myhre et al., 2013). The emission-based approach complements the "traditional" concentration-based one, since it has the interest of providing a diagnosis of the anthropogenic drivers of climate change that is one step closer to the political decision, albeit at the cost of an increased uncertainty as we will also show.

Is Ocean really a source to atmospheric CO2 during cyclones in the Arabian Sea ?

K. Chakraborty (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad, India), S. Prakash (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad, India), A. Paul (Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Hyderabad, India)

Abstract details
Is Ocean really a source to atmospheric CO2 during cyclones in the Arabian Sea ?

K. Chakraborty (1) ; S. Prakash (2) ; A. Paul (2)
(1) Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Information Services and Ocean Sciences Group (ISG), Hyderabad, India; (2) Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Information services and ocean sciences group, Hyderabad, India

Abstract content

The enhanced biological production, and associated regeneration, leads to higher pCO2 in the sea water compared to atmosphere and ocean becomes a source of atmospheric CO2 (Sarma et al., 2008) during such events. Cyclone induced productivity intensify this source. Byju et al., (2011) reported that Phyan associated net CO2 flux to the atmosphere was 0.123 Tg C. We have employed a coupled 3-D bio-physical model, ocean general circulation model ROMS with an ecosystem model, to study whether Ocean is really a source to atmospheric CO2 during cyclones in the Arabian Sea. It is observed that the storm has a significant effect on the thermocline and mixed layer depth which in-turn enhance sea surface chlorophyll concentration. Model generated sea surface chlorophyll concentration during several extreme events is validated using satellite derived ocean colour data which also shows higher concentrations of chlorophyll in the storm influenced region. The high concentration of chlorophyll appeared as a bloom over an area of approximately 150 km in diameter along the storm passage. It is observed that thermocline shoaled up after the storm passed and this shoaling of the thermocline caused entrainment of nutrients in upper 50 meters which triggers high biological productivity. The 50 meter vertically integrated primary production during three different cyclones (Cyclone 01A, Tropical storm 05A and Tropical Storm PHYAN) was estimated in terms of carbon using the model along the track of the cyclone/storm. The net sequestration of carbon due to the above mentioned cyclones are 0.125 Tg C, 0.16 Tg C and 0.125 Tg C, respectively. Our study, in conjuction with Byju et al., suggest that ocean is not a source of CO2 to the atmosphere during cyclones but more such study is required to ascertain whether the ocean acts as a sink during such events.

The great climate change and the fuzzy C sink: how irrigation can change soil carbonates dynamics

I. S. De Soto (Universidad Pública de Navarra. Escuela Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, Pamplona, Spain), I. Virto (Universidad Pública de Navarra. Escuela Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, Pamplona, Spain), P. Barré (PSL Research University, Paris, France)

Abstract details
The great climate change and the fuzzy C sink: how irrigation can change soil carbonates dynamics

IS. De Soto (1) ; I. Virto (1) ; P. Barré (2)
(1) Universidad Pública de Navarra. Escuela Superior de Ingenieros Agrónomos, Departamento de Ciencias del Medio Natural, Pamplona, Spain; (2) PSL Research University, Laboratoire de géologie de l'ens, Paris, France

Abstract content

There are two types of carbonates in soils: lithogenic or primary carbonates, and pedogenic or secondary carbonates. The formation of the later depends on the availability of bicarbonates (HCO3-) and cations in the soil solution. When bicarbonates present in the solution are the result of the dissolution of CO2 from soil respiration, the formation of pedogenic carbonates can be considered a net CO2 sink. Carbonates dynamics in soil are however complicated to depict because in addition to the sources of carbonates (which can include pre-existing carbonates, bicarbonates dissolved in incoming water and the soil atmosphere) and cations, the conditions for precipitation and/or dissolution and leaching are continuously changing. From a global perspective, these conditions can be considered at steady state in a given place when relatively long periods of time (f.e. one year) are considered, and local climate and soil conditions do not change.

However, when the annual soil water balance changes, alterations in soil carbonate concentrations can be expected in a short period of time because of the solubility of carbonate minerals. In this context, human-induced changes, such as the implementation of irrigation, can accelerate the dissolution and precipitation cycles of soil carbonates. In addition, irrigation stimulates the soil biological activity and biotic CO2 generation and also irrigation water can be an external source of cations and bicarbonates. For this reason, studying the evolution of carbonates in dryland agricultural soils converted to irrigation can help to understand the extent of this change in terms of carbonates dynamics. The complexity of these biogeochemical interactions makes modelling a useful and interesting tool.

The purpose of this work was to evaluate the variations of carbonate concentrations in the topsoil of a semi-arid Mediterranean agricultural soil after the implementation of irrigation.  Two adjacent plots were selected for this study; one under dryland conditions with wheat since at least 50 years and another under irrigation conditions with corn for 7 consecutive years. The plots were located in the same soil unit (Calcic Cambisol) in Funes (Navarra, Spain). Numerical simulations of carbonates concentration, dissolution and precipitation were performed with PHREEQC for the evaluation of the geochemical interactions between the soil, the soil solution and irrigation water, for a simple model based in the monthly water balance and the observed concentrations in the soil solution and irrigation water. In addition, a sensitive analysis was developed in order to investigate the potential impact of the type of crop, salt concentrations in the irrigation water and partial CO2 pressure due to soil respiration. Finally, for the validation of the model, samples of the irrigated and non-irrigated plots were analyzed for their carbonate content and isotopic composition (δ13C).

Simulated values were consistent with the observed values of carbonates concentrations and isotopic signature of the soil samples.  The simulation results also suggested that the amount of new precipitated carbonates and the amount of carbonates leached varies with the salt concentration in the irrigation water, the partial CO2 pressure and the type of crop. The most sensitive parameter was the partial CO2 pressure of the soil solution.  The modelling results showed annual values of carbonates-C leaching around hundreds of kg/ha in the studied area under irrigation.

This study showed that in a relatively short period of time (seven years) the differences observed in the inorganic C budget of the agricultural soil studied could be significant in relation to the total soil C budged. Irrigation could therefore have an important effect in soil fractions of carbonate-rich soils and this should be taken into consideration in regional-scale studies. 

Are soil organic carbon and its decomposers sensitive to a temperature increase? New insights from long term bare fallows and consequences for the terrestrial carbon biogeochemical cycle

R. Lefevre (University Pierre et Marie Curie, Grignon, France), P. Barré (ENS/CNRS, Paris, France), P.-A. Maron, (INRA, Dijon, France), S. Terrat, (INRA, Dijon, France), S. Dequiedt, (INRA, Dijon, France), T. Eglin, (ADEME, Angers, France), B. T. Christensen, (Aarhus university, Tjele, Denmark), T. Kätterer, (Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Ultuna, Sweden), S. Houot, (INRA, Grignon, France), O. F. Van (INRA, Versailles, France), C. Chenu (Agroparistech, Grignon, France)

Abstract details
Are soil organic carbon and its decomposers sensitive to a temperature increase? New insights from long term bare fallows and consequences for the terrestrial carbon biogeochemical cycle

R. Lefevre (1) ; P. Barré (2) ; PA. Maron, (3) ; S. Terrat, (3) ; S. Dequiedt, (3) ; T. Eglin, (4) ; BT. Christensen, (5) ; T. Kätterer, (6) ; S. Houot, (7) ; OF. Van (8) ; C. Chenu (9)
(1) University Pierre et Marie Curie, Ecosys, Grignon, France; (2) ENS/CNRS, Dpt geology, Paris, France; (3) INRA, Umr agroecology, Dijon, France; (4) ADEME, Direction productions et energies durables – service agriculture et forêt, Angers, France; (5) Aarhus university, Department of agroecology - soil fertility, Tjele, Denmark; (6) Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of ecology, Ultuna, Sweden; (7) INRA, Ecosys, Grignon, France; (8) INRA, Ecosys, Versailles, France; (9) Agroparistech, Ecosys, Grignon, France

Abstract content

The IPCC projects a temperature increase of 0.3-4.8°C at the global scale by the year 2100 as well as longer and more frequent extreme events such as heat waves (IPCC, 2014). The impact of a temperature increase and of extreme events on the dynamics of stable soil organic carbon (SOC) and its decomposers remains a major source of uncertainty in predicting future changes in atmospheric CO2 levels.

 

Long-term bare fallow experiments in which plants and organic amendments were excluded for at least 25 years represent a unique research platform to examine this issue as with increasing duration of the treatment, the proportion of stable SOC increases. This study employs soils from four experiments situated at Askov (Denmark), Ultuna (Sweden) and Grignon and Versailles (France). We used archived soils sampled at the start of the experiments and after 25, 49, 53 and 79 years of bare fallow, respectively, when the soils had become enriched in stable SOC. The samples were incubated at constant soil moisture and at four different temperatures (4, 12, 20 and 35 °C). The evolution of total CO2 and of 13CO2 from the incubated soils was monitored for more than one year. At the end of the incubation, SOC decomposers were determined thanks to next generation sequencing techniques.

 

The results indicated a higher temperature sensitivity of SOC in soils enriched in stable carbon. However, we observed no relationship between the duration of the bare-fallow treatment and the temperature sensitivity of SOC. Interestingly, the quality (as determined by 13CO2) of the mineralized SOC depended on the incubation temperature.  Our results provided strong evidence for a general relationship between temperature sensitivity and SOC stability upon which significant improvements in predictive models could be based.

 

This study also showed that soil microbial richness and equitability were both enhanced in organic resource depleted soils. We observed a shift from copiotrophic to oligotrophic microorganisms, indicating a radical change of ecological niches with carbon depletion and temperature increase. Surprisingly, the more diverse soil microbial communities linked to stable soil organic carbon were more sensitive to a temperature increase than less diverse communities linked to more labile organic carbon compounds. It provided evidence that biodiversity is not the only factor of functional stability and that functional stability might be a combination of biotic and abiotic soil characteristics.

 

Corresponding author: lefevrerds@gmail.com

Carbon Cycle Response to Artificial Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Removal

K. Zickfeld (Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, France)

Abstract details
Carbon Cycle Response to Artificial Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Removal

K. Zickfeld (1)
(1) Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Abstract content

Artificial removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (CDR) is increasingly discussed as a complementary approach to CO2 emission reductions, particularly in the context of stringent climate targets. The efficiency of CDR is determined by the interplay between the natural carbon sinks on land and in the ocean and atmospheric CO2 levels. Only a few studies have explored the response of the global carbon cycle to CDR. Here, we use an Earth System model of intermediate complexity – the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) - to explore the response of the carbon cycle to atmospheric CO2 removal under a range of idealized scenarios, which differ in the total amount and rate of negative emissions, and the initial state of the system. We perform two sets of model simulations: one where a drop in atmospheric CO2 to a target level and maintenance at that level is prescribed (P), and one where an equivalent amount of negative CO2 emissions is prescribed over a given period of time, with atmospheric CO2 left to evolve freely thereafter (E).

Results indicate that for both simulation sets, CO2 outgasses from the terrestrial biosphere and the ocean during the atmospheric CO2 removal phase. The amount of outgassing is sensitive to the experimental setup (P versus E simulations) and the rate and amount of CO2 removal. For P simulations we find that the lower the target atmospheric CO2 level, the larger the outgassing from natural sinks, and the larger the negative emissions required to maintain the target level. The efficiency of CDR – defined for P simulations as the cumulative negative emissions required to achieve a unit decrease in atmospheric CO2 – is independent of the rate of removal in the long-term, but increases significantly for scenarios with larger amounts of CDR.

Climate Change Epidemiological Health Reports in Michoacan State, Mexico since2009 to 2013

A. Molina-Garcia (State Commission for Protection against Sanitarian Risks, Morelia, Mexico), C. Armendariz-Arnez. (National University Autonomous of Mexico, Morelia, Mexico), L. Pacheco-Magaña. (National University Autonomous of Mexico, Morelia, Mexico), G. Figueroa-Aguilar. (State Laboratory of Public Health, Morelia, Mexico), L. A. Saavedra-Romero. (Technical Secretary, Morelia, Mexico), C. E. Aranza-Doniz. (Minister of Health, Morelia, Mexico), J. Martinez-Ponce. (Ministry of Health, Morelia, Mexico)

Abstract details
Climate Change Epidemiological Health Reports in Michoacan State, Mexico since2009 to 2013

A. Molina-Garcia (1) ; C. Armendariz-Arnez. (2) ; L. Pacheco-Magaña. (2) ; G. Figueroa-Aguilar. (3) ; LA. Saavedra-Romero. (4) ; CE. Aranza-Doniz. (5) ; J. Martinez-Ponce. (6)
(1) State Commission for Protection against Sanitarian Risks, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico; (2) National University Autonomous of Mexico, Campus morelia, Morelia, Mexico; (3) State Laboratory of Public Health, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico; (4) Technical Secretary, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico; (5) Minister of Health, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico; (6) Ministry of Health, Ministry of health at michoacan state, Morelia, Mexico

Abstract content

Objective: To show the epidemiological reports of the impact on health with local and global environmental change. Data sources: our main reports were measured with parameters like temperature and precipitations during 1950-2000; and climate change scenarios projected to 2020-2030-2050. Also, ozone like air pollutant, 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 spring outbreak; floodings and acute respiratory and diaorrheal infectious diseases, dermatitis and conjunctival diseases related with contaminated food, air, water and soil after intense rainfalls; surveillance of vibrio parahaemolyticus; ocean pH and enterococcus.

Methods: Samples were obtained and sent to state public health laboratory in Morelia, Michoacan, Mexico. Meteorological reports were obtained and reviewed by the Delegational state of the National Commision of Water and analysed by the Athmosferic Science Center from the National University Autonomus of Mexico in Mexico City. Descriptive epidemiological reports were assessed to complete these reports from the epidemiological surveillance health system of michoacan.

Results: Acute infectious diseases were identified like A/H1N1 flu virus and ozone air pollutant in april and may in 2009. Respiratory and diaorrheal infectious outbreaks in heavy rainfalls and floodings in 2010 february in the Monarch butterfly biosphere region in East Michoacan. In the same year, in april an outbreak of vibrio parahaemolyticus were presented. And, recently in 2013 a serial reports related with a low level pH decrease in the Pacific ocean coast and the presence of enterococcus were measured. All these results were associated with temperature, precipitations and climate change scenarios since 1950-2000 and 2020, 2030 and 2050 measures in Michoacan.

 Main Conclusions: Acute and infectious diseases were identified in places where our temperature and precipitations are increasing like world reports in ar4 and ar5 IPCC and others epidemiological data have been publishing.

Aeolian flux quantification of the waste mining deposit: field measurement and empirical modelling. Case of the Hammam Zriba landforms (Zaghouan, Tunisia)

O. Amrouni (National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technologies, Carthage, Tunisia), T. Ben Moussa (Faculté des Sciences de Tunis, Ezzahra, Tunisia), S. Abdeljaouad (University of El Manar, Faculty of Sciences, Tunis, Tunisia)

Abstract details
Aeolian flux quantification of the waste mining deposit: field measurement and empirical modelling. Case of the Hammam Zriba landforms (Zaghouan, Tunisia)

O. Amrouni (1) ; T. Ben Moussa (2) ; S. Abdeljaouad (3)
(1) National Institute of Marine Sciences and Technologies, Laboratory of Marine Environment, Carthage, Tunisia; (2) Faculté des Sciences de Tunis, Géologie, Ezzahra, Tunisia; (3) University of El Manar, Faculty of Sciences, Department of geology, Tunis, Tunisia

Abstract content

The aim of this study is the quantification of the air flux mining waste pollution throughout the human landforms. The study field, located on the lee side of Jebal Boukhrouh mountain (Hmmam Zriba Locality, Zaghouan), is mainly exposed to the frequent dust strom event which entrains the dispersion of the dams deposit. Using the vertical sand trap ( type Rosen, 1978) along three cross profiles ( from the dam to the olive tree field) under a dust storm event of May 12, 2013 ( direction: west to west north west, speed ≥ 15 m/s) , we quantify the aeolian waste mining flux. Vertical distribution of sand transport flux was studied with the 39 sand samples. Results show that the volume of the aeolian flux indicates variation. In fact, the topography of the area and the nature of the sediments, land use and climatic conditions (wind speed, humidity, etc.) are limiting factors in the transport and dispersion of mining waste particle. Considering these parameters, the measured wind flow can reach 6.4 kg/m/min at the dune feet, accumulated on the olive tree obstacle. However at the dune summit measured flux do not exceed 1.4 kg /m/ min. The steep slope of the dune lee side causes an acceleration of the flow. Wind fluxes measured at the blowouts and the corridors are between 0.2 and 0.6 kg /m/min. It corresponds to turbulent areas where wind velocity becomes higher than 9 m/s. The values of moisture percentages vary between 2.5 and 3.5 for all our samples. Threshold friction velocities (u* t) are between 0.22 and 0.311 ms -1. Making corrections to the values of measured flow and moisture such as the humidity of sediments, u* t reached 0.606 ms-1, the Dr correlation index (calculated flux/empirical flux index) becomes much lower. This confirms the close relationship between the threshold friction velocity and wind flow. Although the semi-empirical formulas established by Bagnold (1941) and Zingg (1953) do not involve this parameter, the correction of the measured flux reduced the difference. Of the frequently used models that described vertical distribution of sand flux, Zingg's model produced the best values with the modified measured waste mining flux. 

Seasonal variations of aerosols in Pakistan: Contributions of domestic anthropogenic emissions and transboundary transport

M. Z. Shahid (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China., Beijing, France)

Abstract details
Seasonal variations of aerosols in Pakistan: Contributions of domestic anthropogenic emissions and transboundary transport

MZ. Shahid (1)
(1) Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing China., State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry, Beijing, France

Abstract content

Air pollution has become a serious challenge for developing countries like Pakistan. Very scarce information is available regarding pollution levels in this geographic region. This study presents the first modelling work to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal variation of aerosol concentrations over Pakistan for using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Simulated aerosols species include sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, organic carbon, black carbon, and PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of 2.5 mm or less), which are evaluated against ground-based observations and satellite measurements. In year 2006, simulated PM2.5 concentrations averaged over ​northeastern Pakistan (71-74.5°E, 28-34°N) are 55, 48.5, 31.5, and 98 µg m-³ in January, April, July, and October, respectively. The simulated highest PM2.5 concentration in October results from the relatively low temperatures that favor nitrate formation as well as the lowest precipitation that leads to the smallest wet deposition of all aerosol species. The simulated lowest concentration of PM2.5 in July can be attributed to the largest precipitation associated with the South Asian summer monsoon. Sensitivity studies show that transboundary transport contributes to PM2.5 aerosol levels in northeastern Pakistan by 10-20% in January and April and by 10-40% in July and October of year 2006. Wind over India and Pakistan is found to be the major meteorological parameter that determines the transboundary aerosol transport.

Impact of hot weather on injuries and accidents in high income countries – a literature review

E. Otte Im Kampe (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom), S. Hajat (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom), S. Kovats (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Impact of hot weather on injuries and accidents in high income countries – a literature review

E. Otte Im Kampe (1) ; S. Hajat (1) ; S. Kovats (1)
(1) London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Introduction: Given predictions of increased frequency of hot weather periods due to climate change it is crucial to have prevention measures in place to reduce the health burden of heat waves. Since injuries have often been overlooked in relation to hot weather the aim of this review is to summarize the evidence on the effect of hot weather on unintentional injuries in high income countries to inform policy and programme initiatives designed to reduce the burden of injuries. Methods: The following data bases were searched (28/02/2015): Global Public Health, Embase, Medline. Studies reporting heatstroke were excluded as the purpose of this review is to report on non-heat related injuries. Eligibility was assessed by one reviewer. 19 studies were included. Results: Preliminary results of this review showed for 15 out of 19 studies an increased risk of unintentional injuries during hot weather. A Spanish study reported that 60% (69) of all firefighter deaths due to a wildland fire entrapment occurred on high temperatures days. In the Netherlands an increase of 15% out of 354,150 trauma patients for each 10°C increase was observed above a threshold of 6°C. In France an excess mortality due to injury and poisoning in particular for people under 35 years was reported. Hot weather conditions in Italy showed higher risk for work-related accidents, in particular on early summer days. 3 studies from the US showed for high temperatures a strong increase in hospital admissions in accidental causes and an increased risk of fatality due to accidental cocaine overdose In contrast, 1 study from Australia did not find an association between emergency hospital admissions due to injuries during extreme heat events. Another Australian study reported decreases in sport accidents, falls and blunts in children and a decrease in motor vehicle related accidents among the elderly. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the 1st review of the effect of hot weather on unintentional injuries. Our review indicates that hot weather periods may increase the risk of unintentional injuries and accidents in high income countries. The results are valuable for health system planning and injury prevention strategies.

Numerical Characterization of the NOx Formation during MSW Incineration

A. B. Timoléon (Faculté des Sciences, Université des Sciences et Techniques de Masuku, Franceville, Gabon)

Abstract details
Numerical Characterization of the NOx Formation during MSW Incineration

AB. Timoléon (1)
(1) Faculté des Sciences, Université des Sciences et Techniques de Masuku, Chimie, Franceville, Gabon

Abstract content

A numerical model has been developed (Chemkin) to study combustion processes in a fixed bed reactor. The test section is divided into several successive Perfect Stirred Reactor (PSR). At the entry, the thermal degradation species of the solid are used as input and at the exit the exhaust gases are recovered. Comparison of previously experimental results and the current model output has been compared with good agreement. The study demonstrates that the NO formation and reduction is controlled by the combustion regime so are mainly dependant of the primary excess air of combustion. The model has been used to establish the reaction pathways of formation and reduction of the NOx at different locations in the reactor as a function of this parameter. This has allowed defining what is occurring at each specific location of the reactor. The reaction pathways and sensitivity study has shown that the production of NO is controlled mostly by local oxygen concentration, thus the location of the NO production region depends mostly on the primary air injection. From this description of the principal reacting zones and of the intermediate species it is possible to develop and to optimize primary technique of NOx reduction.

The Air Quality Improvement by Precipitation during the Spring Season

S.-H. Ahn (National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea), S.-W. Lee (National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea), J.-Y. Kim (National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea), C.-H. Park (National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
The Air Quality Improvement by Precipitation during the Spring Season

SH. Ahn (1) ; SW. Lee (1) ; JY. Kim (1) ; CH. Park (1)
(1) National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR), Research Planning and Management Division, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

Meteorological elements determining air quality are significant, given that many premature deaths each year are attributed to air pollution. The washout effect of summertime precipitation on air pollutants is of importance, since every spring yellow dust and high level of particulate matter (PM) in the Korean Peninsula has reduced visibility and threatened the health of the people. The air pollutant is a substance in solid, liquid, or gaseous form in the air, which is caused by natural action and human activities. Air pollution is a serious problem that threatens the health of the people, inflicts harm to plants or structures and causes toxic effects to the environment. These air pollutants are removed from the air by wet deposition process referring to precipitation, fog, and condensation. This study has analyzed air quality improvement with the concentration variation of four pollutants (PM10, NO2, CO, and SO2) during the spring season in the Korean Peninsula. During the period 2009 to 2013, we selected 56 cases that were accompanied by nationwide precipitation, and used the observation data on automatic air pollution from the Ministry of Environment (MOE) and the precipitation data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). We calculated the difference of air pollutant concentration during the period with no precipitation and with precipitation. The concentration (PM10, NO2, CO, and SO2) during the precipitation period was lower (29.8%, 9.8%, 3.4%, and 21.5%, respectively) compared to that of during the no precipitation period. Furthermore, the air quality has greatly improved as the duration of precipitation increased. The result seems to imply that spring precipitation has a significant influence on the removal of the PM10, which penetrates the lung and threatens the health.

 

Acknowledgements:

This research was carried out as a part of "Development and application of technology for weather forecast" supported by the 2015 National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in the Korea Meteorological Administration.

Climate and risk of vector borne zoonotic disease emergence: examples of Rift Valley and West Nile fevers

V. Chevalier (CIRAD, Montpellier, France), A. Tran (CIRAD, Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
Climate and risk of vector borne zoonotic disease emergence: examples of Rift Valley and West Nile fevers

V. Chevalier (1) ; A. Tran (2)
(1) CIRAD, Montpellier, France; (2) CIRAD, Es, Montpellier, France

Abstract content

Vector borne diseases have a major impact on human and animal health, but also on society economy. Due to their transmission routes, zoonotic or not, these diseases are very sensitive to climatic changes. Actors, conditions and processes requested for disease transmission are part of a complex and dynamic system whose behavior, influenced by climate but also by other environmental and socio-economic components, drive potential for pathogen transmission and outbreak occurrence. We illustrate this complexity through two examples, ie Rift Valley and West Nile fevers.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is one of the most important viral zoonoses in Africa. Transmitted by mosquitoes and direct contact, RVF affects both livestock and humans.  Due to global changes, RVF also threats Northern Africa and Southern Europe (Chevalier, Pépin et al. 2010). Depending on areas, the influence of climate may differ, ranging from determining to insignificant.

In Kenyan regions characterized by large depression areas called « Dambos »  and a succession of dry and rainy seasons, RVF outbreaks occur every 5-10 years:  a strong correlation was shown between outbreak occurrence and heavy rainfall events that favor both massive hatch and development of Aedes mcintoshi and Culex sp mosquitoes that are the main vectors of RVF in that region. Similarly, the Ferlo area located in Northern Senegal is characterized by a Sahelian climate and temporary ponds (small water bodies that are filled during the rainy season and then dry). But in this region, no correlation between outbreaks and extreme rainfall events has ever been demonstrated. However Soti et al (2012) showed that these outbreaks occurred when the abundance of the two main mosquito vectors in this region, namely, Culex poicilipes and Aedes vexans arabiensis, was higher than average: these abundances are directly linked to specific rainfall rhythms now well described (Soti, Tran et al. 2012). Nevertheless, herd management, herd renewal rates and nomadic herd movements that influence the immunologic coverage of herds, are probably also involved. These variables will have to be incorporated in existing models to refine them and allow for an accurate surveillance and prediction of outbreaks. In other countries that recently experienced RVF outbreaks, such as Madagascar or South Africa, heavy climatic perturbation could not be incriminated in RVF occurrence (Anyamba, Linthicum et al. 2010). In Egypt and Yemen, the role of socio-economic factors, along with climatic factors, was found to be determinant in RVF emergence and outbreak severity(Abdo-Salem, Tran et al. 2011; Xiao, Beier et al. 2015).

Also transmitted by mosquitoes, mostly from Culex genus, West Nile fever (WNF) is caused by a Flavivirus. Reservoir hosts are wild birds, mostly passerines. Human and horses are dead-end hosts. Introduced in New-World in 1999, the virus spread throughout the USA in few years. It is now endemic and transmitted till South of Argentina. Between 1999 and 2010, nearly 1.8 million people were infected; more than 12 000 neurological cases were recorded, from which 1308 were fatal (Kilpatrick 2011). In Europe, the virus has been recorded in the Mediterranean Basin since the sixties without any human or animal health consequences. However, the incidence of human and equine neurological cases suddenly increased, in particular since 2010. Two recent studies showed that an above normal temperature during the preceding months of outbreaks  was strongly linked to this occurrence : this high temperature increases the vector competency of mosquitoes and provokes a an increase of the mosquito population densities (Tran, Sudre et al. 2014).

Ecological disruptions induced by climatic variations, but also by landscape transformation by human or socio-economical disturbances, are the main component of disease emergence. The understanding of mechanisms and conditions that underlie these processes is part of the major challenges that scientist and health policy makers will have to face to in the coming years.

 

Enhanced critical load capacity of soil due to buffering of atmospheric acidity through deposition of soil derived particulate matter in Delhi (India)

D. Sharma (Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, Delhi, India)

Abstract details
Enhanced critical load capacity of soil due to buffering of atmospheric acidity through deposition of soil derived particulate matter in Delhi (India)

D. Sharma (1)
(1) Jawaharlal Nehru University, School of Environmental Sciences, New Delhi, Delhi, India

Abstract content

This paper reports air quality characterization using data of MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) and measured Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM), NO2 and SO2 values across India. The levels of these pollutants were mapped using geospatial techniques. The results show significant differences in the levels of SPM, NO2 and SO2 across rural and urban sites. In general, districts of central and northern India show relatively higher SPM concentrations as compared to southern India. The SPM values were noted to have a significant correlation with the AOD values at different sites. Further a trend analysis of SPM, NO2 and SO2 in the Delhi region, which was carried out using the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) data, revealed a continuous increase in the SPM levels in the city. This lead to the calculation of  the critical load of atmospheric acidity for nitrogen and sulphur in order to check the vulnerability of the soil systems in Delhi. A Critical Load approach similar to the one used in European method, was applied to assess the vulnerability of natural systems to the present day atmospheric pollution scenario in the capital city of Delhi. The calculated values of critical loads of sulphur ( 225 - 275 eq/ha/yr) and nitrogen (298 - 303 eq/ha/yr), for the soil system in Delhi, were calculated with respect to Anjan grass, Hibiscus and Black siris. According to the results, present loads of sulphur (PL(S) = 26.40 eq/ha/yr) and nitrogen (PL(N) = 36.51 eq/ha/yr) were found to be much lower than their critical loads which means that the present levels of acidity do not pose any danger the soil systems. The study indicated that the system is still protective due to high pH of the soil. The nature of buffering capability of calcium derived from soil dust can be considered as a natural tool to combat acidification in the Indian region. The results showed that the pollution status in Delhi is still within the safe limits. However, at the pace at which the city is growing, it is likely that in coming decades, it may exceed these critical values. The approach is very useful, not only in abating pollution but also in devising means of cost optimal emission abatement strategies, and can be applied the across entire Indian region.

 

Characteristics of aerosol optical and physical properties during major dust storm and intense biomass burning events over a mega-city of Lahore (Pakistan)

S. Tariq (University of the Punjab, Punjab, Pakistan)

Abstract details
Characteristics of aerosol optical and physical properties during major dust storm and intense biomass burning events over a mega-city of Lahore (Pakistan)

S. Tariq (1)
(1) University of the Punjab, Remote sensing and gis group, department of space science, Punjab, Pakistan

Abstract content

Aerosol particles released due to natural and anthropogenic activities have very important effects on human health and climate of the region. In the present study aerosol optical and physical properties have been analyzed during major dust storm (March 2012) and intense biomass burning (October 2013) events over a mega-city of Lahore (Pakistan). In this work we have used AERONET data (level 2.0) to analyze the aerosol optical depth (AOD), Angstrom exponent (440/870) (AE), fine mode fraction (FMF), volume size distribution, single scattering albedo (SSA), real and imaginary parts of refractive index (RI), asymmetry parameter (ASY) and aerosol radiative forcing. We have also used available satellite based measurements during both events. ARL’s HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model backward trajectories were also computed to understand the transport of aerosol particles during both the events. The daily average AOD value (2.17) at 500 nm was found to be highest on 20 March 2012 with corresponding FMF value of 0.27 indicating the dominance of coarse mode particles due to dust storm over Lahore. While during intense biomass burning event peak value (2.36) of AOD was observed on 9 October 2013 with corresponding FMF value of 0.97 pointing towards the fact that fine mode aerosol particles have greater contribution towards total AOD in the atmosphere of Lahore. Volume distribution was observed to be maximum (~1.7) at a radius of ~1.69 on 20 March 2012, whereas volume concentration (~0.33) was found to be highest at a radius of ~0.27 during 9 October 2013. Significant increase in SSA with wavelength was observed during dust storm while during biomass burning period it decreased with wavelength. Aerosol radiative forcing was found to be -265 and -199 Wm-2 during dust storm and biomass burning periods respectively.

Low cost portable sensors for measuring traffic related air pollution in tunnel

S. Srairi (CEREMA, Trappes en Yvelines, France), A. Gorin (CEREMA, Trappes en Yvelines, France), D. Guichon (CEREMA, Trappes en Yvelines, France)

Abstract details
Low cost portable sensors for measuring traffic related air pollution in tunnel

S. Srairi (1) ; A. Gorin (1) ; D. Guichon (1)
(1) CEREMA, Mobility department, Trappes en Yvelines, France

Abstract content

Abstract: Air quality monitoring in tunnel has relied traditionally on static measurement stations. However these are expensive methods to capture pollution heterogeneities and identify pollution hotspots. In recent years, the development of portable sensing technology has attracted considerable interest because of the possibility to reduce operating cost of air pollution monitoring.

Despite this, they are few examples in the published literature of pollution measurement using portable sensors in tunnel. In this work, low cost portable sensors are used to measure traffic related air pollution in tunnel within the framework of the research operation “SERRES”. The objective of this research operation is to produce recommendations and solutions to limit the impact of road traffic on the environment. Within this research operation, low cost pollution portable sensors are characterized and air pollution measurement are correlated with the traffic data of the tunnel.

The present project was divided into four phases. Phase one was the characterization of the portable pollution sensors. A full set of preliminay tests was realised in laboratory to evaluate the portable sensor reliability and to analyze its performances in terms of accuracy, autonomy and memory capacity. Based on this preliminary tests, two sensors were chosen for their performances: Observ' Air sensor and Cairsens sensor. Phase two, the portable sensors were fixed to a static SIREDO measurement station close to a road. The two sensors were installed for 24 hours. The traffic data recorded by the SIREDO station were used to analyze the link between traffic condition and air pollution. A correlation between the road traffic condition and the evolution of the air pollution was verified. Phase three was the selection and the instrumentation of a tunnel. The Guy Môquet tunnel was selected as an experimentation site because it had the following characteristics: easy instrumentation, simple access and close to a static measurement station (SIREDO). The tunnel is located in the Val-de-Marne district of south-east Paris. An instrumentation was realized inside the tunnel in collaboration with the Ile de France territorial division unit in charge of air quality. It involved placing and instrumentating four pollution portable sensors inside the tunnel. In phase four, experimental measurements were conducted and studied. A spatiotemporal analysis was made. The measures given by the portable sensors were compared to the results given by the static measurement station. A link between pollutant concentrations and road traffic condition was demonstrated.

 

Aknowledgment

This works is supported by the Technical Division for Territorial Development and Urban Planning of the CEREMA.

Seasonal pattern of the associations between daily mortality and PM10 in Korea and Japan

H. Kim (Seoul National University, SEOUL, Republic of Korea), Y. Honda (University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan), E. K. Satbyul (Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
Seasonal pattern of the associations between daily mortality and PM10 in Korea and Japan

H. Kim (1) ; Y. Honda (2) ; EK. Satbyul (1)
(1) Seoul National University, School of Public Health, SEOUL, Republic of Korea; (2) University of Tsukuba, 3faculty of health and sport sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Abstract content

Background/Aims: Many studies have shown that particulate air pollution exposures are associated with increased mortality. However, only a few studies in Asian countries have examined the modification effects by seasons on air pollution-mortality associations. The aim of this study was to examine the air pollution-mortality associations within seasons in 13 cities, 6 cities from Japan and 7 cities from Korea, where with four distinct seasons.

Methods: We applied stratified time-series models to the data sets in order to examine whether the effects of particulate matter less than 10μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) on mortality was modified by four seasons, spring, summer, fall and winter. The effect of PM10 on daily mortality was first quantified within seasons at each location with a time-series model, and the estimates were then pooled through a random-effects meta-analysis using the maximum likelihood method.

Results: The daily means of PM10 in S. Korea were 69.98㎍/㎥ for spring, 45.89㎍/㎥

for summer, 48.80㎍/㎥ for fall, and 56.94㎍/㎥ for winter. Every 10 ㎍/㎥ increase in PM10 daily concentration was associated with an increase in non-accidental mortality of 0.17% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.05 to 0.29%) for spring, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.18 to 0.70%) for summer, 0.35% (95% CI: 0.13 to 0.58) for fall and -0.14% (95% CI: -0.06 to 0.33%) for winter for S. Korea. For Japan, the spring, summer, fall and winter daily PM10 means were 33.96㎍/㎥, 35.43㎍/㎥, 31.99㎍/㎥, and 27.93㎍/㎥, respectively. Percent change in daily mortality in Japan were 0.44% (95% CI: 0.18 to 0.72%) for spring, 0.15% (95% CI: -0.12 to 0.42%) for summer, 0.33% (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.52) for fall and 0.15% (95% CI: -0.23 to 0.53%) for winter, per equivalent increase in PM10.

Conclusion: The results showed that the effects of ambient air pollution on acute mortality differed within seasons and by locations. These findings may provide useful information to agencies for protecting local populations from adverse health effects of air pollution.

 

 

PM carbonaceous fraction in relationship both to the atmospheric budget and the new technologies

P. Avino (INAIL, Rome, Italy), G. Quartieri (IUSR http://www.unisrita.it, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy), P. Quercia (IBR University, Rome, Italy), C.-B. Eric (OIKOS, Rome, Italy)

Abstract details
PM carbonaceous fraction in relationship both to the atmospheric budget and the new technologies

P. Avino (1) ; G. Quartieri (2) ; P. Quercia (3) ; CB. Eric (4)
(1) INAIL, DIT, Rome, Italy; (2) IUSR http://www.unisrita.it, PHYSICS, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy; (3) IBR University, Rome, Italy; (4) OIKOS, Rome, Italy

Abstract content

As part of the energy decisions that are being considered, the extent of the budget of organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) assumes a primary importance. in particular, it is essential to measure the relative fractions for a correct evaluation of air pollution from combustion processes. The use of these measures is used to define a specific index of pollution from motor vehicle traffic. iInfatti, these measures become very relevant for the protection of the health of the population for the high permanence of carbon particles in the atmosphere and the many chemical and physical processes of transformation that they may undergo in the atmosphere.

The good correlation between the values ​​of OC and EC shows that the area of ​​the historic center of Rome the most important source of particulate carbonaceous fraction is in the motor vehicle traffic, ie an element typically anthropic, as indeed in the main industrial area source is the combustion. instead different situation is found in a remote area, where this correlation is reversed from the point of view of quality and is. decisasmente lower by quantitatively indicating the presence of natural sources.

the separation between EC, of ​​primary origin, and OC, the source primary and secondary, is of fundamental importance for the study of the effects pneumoconiogeni and, more generally, for the toxic effects and for the study of the mechanisms of formation of photochemical pollutants. it follows that, on a microscale, the carbon becomes more important negative for human health than other natural environmental factors.

You can make a first distinction between risk and risk widespread local anthropogenic natural; However, the local risk tends to increase rapidly as evidenced by all the curves and the time series presented recently by several authors.

The anthropogenic component becomes more important and fundamental as to require choices and impose serious and important related to the lifestyle of the population.

Finally, in this horizon quite accurate plus future situations by having to still monitor: the conversion of coal, for example, of new industries are not yet known, especially how it affects the territory locale.in any case, new energy technologies, definitely interesting for the greater energy yield, should be evaluated from the point of view of environmental compatibility.

Pollen as a health indicator of climate change

M. Thibaudon (RNSA, Brussieu, France), S. Monnier (RNSA, Brussieu, France), J.-P. Besancenot (RNSA, Brussieu, France), N. Michelot (MEDDE, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Pollen as a health indicator of climate change

M. Thibaudon (1) ; S. Monnier (1) ; JP. Besancenot (1) ; N. Michelot (2)
(1) RNSA, Brussieu, France; (2) MEDDE, Paris, France

Abstract content

Climate change, which is now scientifically proven and well known by everyone, influences plant growth, with unavoidable consequences on pollen. There are still a lot of uncertainties about the changes affecting pollination, but it is not disputed that the prevalence of allergies is on the rise for a number of years. Similarly, the timing and severity of allergic symptoms does seem to be related to climate variations. Indeed, it certainly appears that a warmer climate (both observed in the recent past and projected into the future) leads to more pollen grains in the air, to earlier flowering and pollination dates, to longer pollen seasons, and to poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant species. Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed rising levels in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. But the major greenhouse gas, i.e. the carbon dioxide (CO2) whose concentration has increased from a pre-industrial value of about 280 parts per million (ppm) to 400 ppm in 2014, has also a direct, extra-climatic effect. In fact, it acts as aerial fertilizer and helps plants thrive, causing increases in pollen production, in atmospheric pollen concentrations and, finally, in the number of allergy sufferers. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2003) classifies allergies as the fourth most important chronic disease in the world and considers that these diseases represent "a major public health problem in terms of quality of life, lost days of work or school, drug cost, and even mortality". Today, it is assumed that as many as 20 % of the French population currently have some form of allergy, about half of them suffering from pollen allergy (or pollinosis). Counting and identifying pollen grains over several years enables to estimate and, as a result, to predict the pollination dates of various plant families (in order to institute preventive actions for the benefit of allergy sufferers), but also to detect any changes in the pollen content of the atmosphere and alert the allergists. Moreover, it is well known that the prevalence of allergy in general and pollen allergy in particular has increased significantly in recent decades in industrialized countries. Exposure to environmental pollutants may partly explain such an upward trend. As a result of chemical pollution it is possible to observe a reduction in the sensitivity threshold to pollen, for example by deforming or breaking the outer wall of the grain, resulting in the dispersion in the environment of many fragments of pollen grains and cytoplasmic granules. Pollutants such as PM10, PM2.5, ozone and NO2 can also irritate airways and the increased airway responsiveness is able to reinforce the effects of pollen allergy. Phenological observations (occurrence of periodic, most often annual, life cycle events, influenced by seasonal and inter-annual variations in climate) are used to evaluate the influence of climate change on vegetation and biodiversity. These observations, when carried out on allergenic plant species, help to assess the influence of climate change on human health. At the request of ONERC (National Observatory of Global Warming Effects), RNSA (French Aerobiology Network) undertook in 2012 and then updated annually a study aiming at the construction of a health indicator in the Health and Society Chapter of the ONERC catalogue of climate change indicators. The results obtained from birch pollen data (high allergenic potential throughout Europe and sensitivity to long-term climate events) of six cities with different climates in metropolitan France, showed an increasing trend in pollen concentration with a rate of about 20 % during the last 20 years. This increasing trend has been associated with increasing regional temperatures, suggesting that climate change may already be having an impact on atmospheric pollen concentrations. In the future, global warming and rising temperatures could lead to a further increase in the amount of pollen in the air. This can only aggravate allergic hazards and thereby jeopardize public health. In view of the COP 21 conference in Paris at the end of 2015, the goal is to find solutions to limit the effects of climate change on pollen and health. One of the main objectives pursued by RNSA is to inform the public on the risks and attitudes we must have in order to limit the health impact of pollutants and pollen on allergic sufferers. The missions of monitoring, warning and prevention of allergic risk given to the RNSA fit into this perspective and should allow the implementation of adequate policies by health authorities.

Simulations of Pollutant Dispersal over Nairobi City, Kenya

G. Otieno (university of nairobi, nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Simulations of Pollutant Dispersal over Nairobi City, Kenya

G. Otieno (1)
(1) university of nairobi, meteorolgy, nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

The current rapid deterioration of air quality in urban centres can be attributed to urbanization. Poor air quality has been associated with several negative effects on human health, climate and ecosystems. Most cities in developing countries, especially in Africa have poor or in some cases no air quality management systems in place despite having the fastest growing urban populations. City populations have high vulnerability to the impacts air pollution following high density of residents and economic activities as well.

Air pollution is evident in most cities; the case of Nairobi is an illustrative of this. The common air pollutants include carbon monoxide and total suspended particulates among others, the latter being the most widespread and the most serious for human health.

This study simulated air pollutant dispersal over the city using Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT), considering a case for emission of total suspended particles into the environment. The predominant wind speed over the city is 4-6 knots and the wind direction is easterly. The forward trajectory of a pollutant released in the city is generally observed to flow to the western side of the city.  The pollutant is observed to be dispersed beyond 100 km from the city reducing the concentration of the same in the city.

The study thus recommends for a consultative planning process of the city that factors in the wind characteristics over the city; most industrial activities should be located to the extreme western side of the city to minimize concentration of pollutants over the city. The study further recommends studies that studies be carried out to ascertain the quality of rain water during the long rain season.

Air Pollution Transport Processes and Human Health Impacts over the Middle Hill Urban Centers of Nepal Himalaya

R. P. Regmi (Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal)

Abstract details
Air Pollution Transport Processes and Human Health Impacts over the Middle Hill Urban Centers of Nepal Himalaya

RP. Regmi (1)
(1) Tribhuvan University, Central Department of Physics, Kirtipur, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract content

Urban centers of Nepal are mostly located in deep valleys, narrow river basins and in southern plain areas, more or less shaped like valleys and in proximity to the high mountains. The meteorological conditions associated with such topographic features have been found to be highly adverse and may build up severe air pollution even where the local emissions are low. In consideration with their associated topography and the meteorological conditions that could possibly prevail, Nepalese urban centers in the middle hills are expected to be highly vulnerable to air pollution. Prevalence of dust, particulate and other pollutants in the ambient air of these urban centers have already reached to an unacceptable level. The lack of necessary knowledge on air pollution emission pattern, the carrying capacity, mechanism of transport and formation of pollutant fields in these swelling urban centers have given rise to serious uncertainties with respect to the air quality degradation, development of control systems, and urban planning. 0bservations and numerical simulation studies on prevailing wintertime meteorology and air pollutants distribution and their dynamics have revealed that the bowl-shaped Kathmandu valley possesses high air pollution potential due to its adverse meteorological and topographic conditions particularly during the dry winter season. The poor dispersion power of the valley can easily reach into its saturation if substantial amount of air pollution is continuously loaded into its atmosphere. Concurrent investigation of human-air pollution exposure status based on the results of numerical simulation revealed that more than 52 per cent of total Kathmandu residents were living in areas with concentration above 40 μgm-3 of PM10. Significant health endpoints attributable to PM10 over the Kathmandu valley have been predicted. Other urban centers are developing in the same pursuits. In this paper, we will present the atmospheric transport processes over the middle hills of Nepal Himalaya and their role in pumping up the lowland pollutants up into the Himalayas including the prevailing wintertime meteorology, mechanism of air pollution transport and formation of pollutant fields, human exposure and health endpoints over the Kathmandu valley.

Evaluation of the Spatial Relationship between Air Pollution and Respiratory Infections in Meknes City, Morocco

I. Boularab (Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco), O. Mouhaddach (Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco), M.-P. Kestemont (Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium), S. El Jaafari (Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco)

Abstract details
Evaluation of the Spatial Relationship between Air Pollution and Respiratory Infections in Meknes City, Morocco

I. Boularab (1) ; O. Mouhaddach (1) ; MP. Kestemont (2) ; S. El Jaafari (1)
(1) Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco; (2) Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Abstract content

Background: With 3.7 million premature deaths in 2012, the World Health Organization indicates that air pollution is a major environmental risk. In Morocco, 41% of the morbidity associated to respiratory infections due to air pollution. Despite this health risk clearly linked to air pollution, there are few studies conducted in the relation air pollution- health in Meknes, the capital of the Meknes-Tafilalet region.

The analyses of geographical distribution of respiratory infections in Meknes city, as well as the study of its relation to potential environmental risk factors, have an important role to develop an efficient system for the monitoring and prevention of this type of diseases.

Methods & Results: The present study aims to elucidate the relationship between air pollution in the Meknes city and the spatial distribution of respiratory consultations as health indicator. First, we present an overview of the mobile and stationary sources of air pollution in the city, with measurements of key pollutants. What helped to reveal that Meknes city suffers from air pollution by diverse sources and characterized by spatial and seasonal variability.

Next, we analyze the epidemiological situation of the health indicator, depending on the age and time, and the spatial distribution of their accumulated incidence compared to sources positions. It follows that an increase in the number of new consultations is disclose specially in the Autumn-Winter period and between persons less than 15 years. This variability also observed in space distribution, with a net increase in neighborhoods in the vicinity of sources of air pollution, particularly those situated in the wind direction promoting the flow of pollutants.

Conclusion & Perspectives: Revealing the impact on the health of urban dwellers in the city of Meknes quite heavy, the identification of air pollution’s risky areas and age categories is a milestone in the establishment of a support system for decision-making of air quality monitoring, for local authorities of Meknes city.

Producing nature for public: panel data analysis of public green spaces provision in Chinese cities

W. Chen (The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Abstract details
Producing nature for public: panel data analysis of public green spaces provision in Chinese cities

W. Chen (1)
(1) The University of Hong Kong, Department of Geography, Hong Kong, Hong Kong

Abstract content

The landscapes and infrastructures of cities have long been viewed as products of human-nature interaction. This study sheds new light on how a critical constituent of urban landscape and infrastructure, urban public green spaces, has been produced in China’s ongoing profound urbanization process. Over the past decade, China’s urbanization has been characterized by a land-based pattern centered on the commercialization and capitalization of urban land induced by the decentralization of state power. The non-budgetary revenues generated from urban land leasing hold the promise to empower local governments’ fiscal capacity and flexibility in financing various urban infrastructures aiming to enhance local amenities and attract external investment. This paper investigates the impact of land-based urbanization on the provision of urban public green spaces, an integrated part of urban public infrastructure, using panel data across 285 Chinese prefecture cities from 2002 to 2009. The results reveal a negative relationship between the reliance on land finance and the amount of urban public green spaces, indicating that local governments’ pursuit of maximizing land lease revenue will not be able to finance more public green spaces, and may even cause the loss of public green spaces. The regional variations amongst the eastern-coastal, central, and western cities confirm that an initially positive relationship between land finance and the provision of urban public green spaces at the early stage of development would reverse to a negative relationship with the increasing pace of urbanization and economic development, which may lead to a social inequity pertaining to public accessibility to urban green spaces. A balance amongst economic growth, environmental concerns, and social equity is very much needed in the quest for sustainable development.

Green roof cooling effect as climate-adaptation tool for tropical cities

C. Y. Jim (University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China)

Abstract details
Green roof cooling effect as climate-adaptation tool for tropical cities

CY. Jim (1)
(1) University of Hong Kong, Department of Geography, Hong Kong, China

Abstract content

Global warming has accentuated the urban heat island (UHI) effect in cities.  Urban green infrastructures can provide ecosystem services and attendant climate-change adaptation. Compact cities have urban green space (UGS) deficit due to deficient ground-level sites. Numerous building envelopes, including rooftops, facades and walls, furnish ample yet largely untapped greening opportunities. Their efficacy in mitigating climate-change impacts deserve to be investigated by empirical experiments. In compact humid-tropical Hong Kong, two green-roof and a control bare-roof plots were installed on a high-rise building. Precision temperature sensors were installed in a holistic vertical profile extending from outdoor air to roof surface, green-roof material layers, and indoor ceiling and air.  The apartments under the plots were kept unoccupied to monitor air-conditioning energy consumption. The comprehensive-systematic data allowed in-depth analysis of thermal performance of vegetation (Sedum and Perennial Peanut) and weather (sunny, cloudy and rainy) in summer.  Intense solar radiation at Control plot triggered significant material heating, which in turn warmed near-ground air to intensify UHI effect and indoor space to lift energy consumption.  Sedum plot with incomplete plant cover, low transpiration rate and limited substrate moisture experienced feeble evapotranspiration cooling.  The warmed roof passed heat to near-ground air and subsurface layers to impose an indoor cooling load.  Peanut plot with high transpiration rate can significantly cool foliage surface and near-ground air to ameliorate UHI.  Its high moisture-holding capacity, however, can generate a heat-sink to push heat downwards and increase indoor cooling load.  Practical hints on green roof design and management were derived from the findings for application in tropical region to contribute to climate-resilient cities.

Promoting Sustainable Human Settlements and Eco-City Planning Approach: Southeastern Anatolia Region and Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP)

B. Acma (Anadolu University, Eskisehir, Turkey)

Abstract details
Promoting Sustainable Human Settlements and Eco-City Planning Approach: Southeastern Anatolia Region and Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP)

B. Acma (1)
(1) Anadolu University, Economics, Eskisehir, Turkey

Abstract content

In the recent years, there have been many opportunities flourishing through the development of Turkey. One of these is unvalued rich agricultural and hydro-sources in the Southeastern Anatolia Region. The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), one of the most important projects to develop the remarkable natural resources of the world, is considered as a chance to make use of rich water and agricultural resources of the Southeastern Anatolia Region.

In the recent years, the concept of promoting sustainable human settlements and eco-city planning approach has been included into the GAP Project. And, by applying these concepts in real projects caused remarkable results through development of the region.

The aim of this study is analyze the concepts of promoting sustainable human settlements and eco-city planning approach in the GAP Project that has been still processed.

In the first section, the region of Southeastern Anatolia and the GAP Project will be introduced briefly. In the second section, the stages of GAP Project and the project existing will be analyzed. In the third section, the projects and sub-projects used for promoting sustainable human settlements will be introduced.

In the last and fourth section, a series of policies and strategies for providing the process of settlements which is optimal and harmonizes with eco-system will be given.

 

Trapped in a flood-prone zone: Poverty and policy in a Tanzanian slum

L. Stark (University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland), L. Tiina-Riitta (University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland)

Abstract details
Trapped in a flood-prone zone: Poverty and policy in a Tanzanian slum

L. Stark (1) ; L. Tiina-Riitta (2)
(1) University of Jyväskylä, Department of History and Ethnology, Jyväskylä, Finland; (2) University of Jyväskylä, Dept. of history and ethnology, Jyväskylä, Finland

Abstract content

Dar es Salaam is a coastal city with more than 70 per cent of its five million residents living in informal settlements that lack adequate infrastructure and services. Here climate change is expected to exacerbate the vulnerability of poor communities located along stormwater drainage channels through sea level rise, increased rainfall variability, and possibly more intense coastal storms. In mid-April of  2014, heavy rainfall led to the worst flooding since Tanzania’s independence in 1961 and left at least 15 people dead. It also caused devastating damage to private property and public infrastructure, leaving thousands stranded and without shelter. Apart from significant loss of property and risk to human life, floods pose widespread health risks for poor residents due to pit latrine overflow.

Not all areas of the city are vulnerable to flooding, however. This paper will explore why the residents of the most flood-prone zones are unable to leave and move elsewhere. Our focus is on the subward of Tandale, located five kilometres from the centre of Dar es Salaam and bordering the Ubungo-Ng’ombe river system. This river system experiences severe annual flooding during the long rainy season, and both informal home owners and renters living along its banks find themselves ‘trapped’ by chronic poverty, lacking the means to rent or purchase homes in other central urban areas (necessary to livelihood) due to rising land values elsewhere. Moreover, disaster risk in this area is exacerbated by the practice of creating landfill from solid waste along river banks to increase space for home construction. Government programs to upgrade infrastructure and formalize land tenure through residential licenses so far do not apply to flood-prone areas, and thus cannot help these residents. Our ethnographic research into residents’ experiences of flooding and the reasons for their immobility is based on in-depth, thematic interviews and observation carried out during 2010 – 2014.

Urban land-cover types, thermal differences and relative vulnerability to climate change: quantification of South Africa's coastal metropolitans using remotely sensed data

J. Odindi (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa), O. Mutanga (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa), E. Abdel-Rahman (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa), A. Elhadi (University of The Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa), V. Bangamwabo (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa)

Abstract details
Urban land-cover types, thermal differences and relative vulnerability to climate change: quantification of South Africa's coastal metropolitans using remotely sensed data

J. Odindi (1) ; O. Mutanga (1) ; E. Abdel-Rahman (1) ; A. Elhadi (2) ; V. Bangamwabo (1)
(1) University of KwaZulu-Natal, School of agriculture, earth and environmental sciences, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa; (2) University of The Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa

Abstract content

Coastal landscapes have historically attracted a larger number of settlements than inland. This trend is expected to continue. Commonly, increase in coastal settlements has been accompanied by growth of existing urban areas, particularly coastal cities. Such growth is characterised by transformation from natural landscapes to impervious surfaces associated with thermal elevation. These result in urban micro and macro climate alteration and vulnerability to climate change and associated impacts. In this study, we determine the relative vulnerability of the eThekwini, Buffalo City and Mandela Bay metropolitan areas on South Africa’s eastern seaboard using remotely sensed thermal and multispectral datasets. Duncans post-hoc one-way analysis of variance, multispectral Landsat 8 scenes and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used to determine differences between the major land-use-land-cover (LULC) mosaics and their respective surface skin thermal values. Based on each of the metropolitan’s LULC proportions and their respective thermal values from MODIS imagery, the Contribution Index (CI) was used to determine the source/sink contributions within each metropolitan area. The eThekwini metropolitan area, due to its dominant impervious surfaces proportion, was more vulnerable to elevated urban heat and therefore higher relative vulnerability to climate change than the Buffalo City and Nelson Mandela Bay metropolitans. Results in this study show the value of remotely sensed datasets in determining inter and intra urban landscape matrix, thermal elevation and relative vulnerability to climate change. Such findings are particularly valuable for sustainable coastal urban landscape planning and mitigation of climate change related impacts at local, regional and even global scales.   

A theoretical Basis for Integrated Assessment Models

F. A. Pinto Siabatto (PIK, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany)

Abstract details
A theoretical Basis for Integrated Assessment Models

FA. Pinto Siabatto (1)
(1) PIK, Potsdam, Brandenburg, Germany

Abstract content

A mathematical model that couples structural change of countries and flows’ dynamics has been developed. It proposes a comprehensive representation of the socio-economic structure. The model introduces an explicit description of three processes: GDP growth, the mitigation of damages from uncertain impacts in economic activities, and socioeconomic adjustments that bring about the adaptive capacity. It also holds a representation of resilience. The model makes explicit the endogenization problem that needs to be solved. Working out this problem will allow the numerical assessment of resilience. It also paves the path to the harmonization of metrics relating resources, economic flows and social welfare.

Regional Arabian Peninsula Modeling Findings and Integrated Climate Change Programme

G. Jane (Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative (AGEDI), Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates)

Abstract details
Regional Arabian Peninsula Modeling Findings and Integrated Climate Change Programme

G. Jane (1)
(1) Abu Dhabi Global Environmental Data Initiative (AGEDI), Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Abstract content

AGEDI launched a follow-up to this initial study of Climate Change in the UAE in 2011 with the aim of establishing a climate change work programme that could build upon, expand and deepen the understanding of vulnerability to the impacts of climate change as well as identify practical adaptive responses at the local, national and regional levels. A 5-stage stakeholder consultative process involving nearly 100 stakeholders helped define the overall scope of the programme, and establish the types of outputs considered to be the most useful for future policymaking at the multiple scales envisioned.

The first-of-its-kind effort in the Arabian Gulf, the project represents a timely and strategic initiative that can help regional leaders, innovators and decision-makers better understand critical stakes and the range of options available to them across the 5 key thematic areas. The 12 integrated sub-projects also represent an organizing framework to engage partners from across the region on issues that are widely considered to be high priority, while also involving several international organizations to facilitate replication in other regions of the world.

The first two subprojects on high resolution modeling for both atmosphere and the Arabian Gulf are now complete and being openly shared.  The findings create the foundational information for the remaining projects of the programme. Interestingly, the results towards modeling of sea level change and what are its current limitations as opposed to scenario building have create rich dialogue which has helped bridge the disconnect between the science- policy interface.

The modeling has occurred in a nested configuration to cover the Arabian Peninsula at a 12km grid and a 4km grid over the UAE as well as part of Oman and Saudi. 4km is extremely computationally heavy and substantially more robust than the previous studies undertaken by EAD etc. The Oceans Modeling is also run at 1 km resolution which is also incredibly precise in comparison to global modeling which we also used for past studies in the region.

Regional    Ocean    Models    (ROMs)    are    essential    for understanding   how   future   climate   change will   affect specific locations within the world’s oceans. Such models are a significant improvement over coarse resolution ESMs because  they more  realistically capture local oceanographic processes and  characteristics,  such  as  sea surface  temperature  profiles,  circulation  patterns,  fresher simulations of the Earth’s climate. 

The ROM for the Arabian Gulf has been developed, based on ESM boundary conditions and local data, and used to make climate change projections out through the late 21st century. The outputs of the study provide a Gulf specific basis on which to conduct the subsequently planned vulnerability assessments of the programme regarding marine biodiversity and socioeconomic systems, as well as be an asset to   researchers in the region regarding future climate change and the marine environment.

Regional atmospheric modeling is essential for understanding how climatic conditions will change at specific locations within the region. Such models are a significant improvement over global models because they more realistically represent local to regional meteorological dynamics, such as orographic precipitation, land-ocean wind breezes and circulations, surface heating and evaporation, on-shore and off-shore wind patterns, and other factors that influence current and future climate.

The primary goal of the regional atmospheric modeling using WRF was to develop projections of regional climate for the Arabian Peninsula at fine spatial and temporal scales. The modeling effort builds off and reflects the large-scale features and temporal trends from GCM simulations based on the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report (AR5). The modeling was conducted on the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputer or “Yellowstone”.

The outputs of the study provide a Gulf region-specific basis on which to conduct subsequent planned vulnerability assessments under the programme regarding terrestrial biodiversity, water resources, coastal zones and socioeconomic systems. 

 

 

Optimal climate policy under socio-economic scenario uncertainty

L. Drouet (FEEM, Milan, Italy), J. Emmerling (FEEM, Milano, Italy)

Abstract details
Optimal climate policy under socio-economic scenario uncertainty

L. Drouet (1) ; J. Emmerling (2)
(1) FEEM, Milan, Italy; (2) FEEM, Milano, Italy

Abstract content

The role of uncertainty in the field of climate change has been widely discussed in recent years. A focus has been on the role of uncertainty in the climate sciences part of climate change, in particular uncertainty about the magnitude of climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, e.g., as measured by the famous climate sensitivity parameter. In applied policy analysis, integrated assessment models (IAMs) can be used to assess the costs and benefits of climate change policies. Besides the crucial climate parameters and impact estimates, these models require the specification of a baseline population and GDP growth scenario along which optimal climate policies are studied.

Here, we study the role of uncertainty about these baseline assumptions to contribute to the literature about how and how much uncertainty does affect the optimal policy. We make use of a new set of socio-economic development scenarios that the IAM community currently works on , called socio-economic shared pathways (SSPs). These scenarios will serve as a reference to explore the long-term consequences of climate change and the climate policy strategies. They can serve at least to assess the range and hence uncertainty of future baseline growth and population assumptions for the context of climate change, which is what we aim for in this work.

We focus on the role of socio-economic uncertainty to address three research questions that come up in this context. Firstly, we ask what is the optimal climate policy and how robust is it in the presence of socio-economic uncertainty. Notably, we estimate the cost of this uncertainty and how different decision rules for finding the optimal climate policy when the baseline is unknown can be derived including making use of recent developments in the context of robust decision making. Secondly, and related, we discuss how measures of the costs of climate change and climate policies can be measured and compared when different baselines are considered. Given that policy costs and other measures such as impacts are typically expressed relative to a baseline, comparing those values with different baseline projections is not trivial as we show. Thirdly, we more broadly discuss how scenario development exercises can inform decisions under uncertainty taking into account the different “worlds” described.

Climatic sensitivity of the Brazilian Earth System Model integration submitted to abrupt CO2 change

J. F. Pesquero (National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil), N. Paulo (National Institute for Space Research, cachoeira paulista, Brazil)

Abstract details
Climatic sensitivity of the Brazilian Earth System Model integration submitted to abrupt CO2 change

JF. Pesquero (1) ; N. Paulo (1)
(1) National Institute for Space Research, Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil

Abstract content

This work analyzes the climatic sensitivity response of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-version 2.5) when exposed to abrupt CO2 changes. We will calculate differences between two, 30 years experiments of the BESM model, from 2007 to 2036 (30 years), both of runs start from a 150 years spinup, but one run has atmospheric CO2 constant concentration at preindustrial values (280 ppmv) and the other has constant and abrupt 1200 ppmv (“4xCO2”). The work analyzes the differences of abruptly changed integrations (1200 ppmv) and not abruptly integrations (280 ppmv), more precisely, calculating 12 Climate Extreme Indices using the fields of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature over South America. The difference of 4xCO2 and 280 ppm integrations for Constant Drier Days (CDD-CLIMDEX index) are showing ​​60 days of increased CDD over northern South American continent. Note that both of the Northeast as the Southeast and southern Midwest regions of Brazil are showing similar characteristics in magnitude of CDD between 5 and 30 days.The BESM model Total Precipitation (PRCPTOT-CLIMDEX index) indicates an increase from 50 to 200 mm on the South, Southeast of the Midi West of Brazil. The Constant Wet Days (CWD-CLIMDEX index) are decreasing 20 days over the great part of North Region of Brazil.  When comparing BESM Frost Days (FD-CLIMDEX index) with FD of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4), there is a very similar pattern but the BESM showed elevated number of FD. When comparing Summer Days (SU Climdex index) between BESM and CCSM4 models, both of models showed very similar profile of Summer Days, but the CCSM showed smaller values than BESM. Finally, these results showed that the model BESM has a good climatic sensitivity response. 

 

Photochemistry of ozone at the surface of cloud water droplets: insights from computer simulations

M. Ruiz-Lopez (University of Lorraine, Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, France), J. Anglada (CSIC, Barcelona, Spain), M. Martins-Costa (University of Lorraine, Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, France), J. S. Francisco (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States of America)

Abstract details
Photochemistry of ozone at the surface of cloud water droplets: insights from computer simulations

M. Ruiz-Lopez (1) ; J. Anglada (2) ; M. Martins-Costa (1) ; JS. Francisco (3)
(1) University of Lorraine, SRSMC, Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, France; (2) CSIC, Departament de química biològica i modelització molecular, Barcelona, Spain; (3) University of Nebraska-Lincoln, College of arts & sciences, Lincoln, NE, United States of America

Abstract content

Atmospheric reactions in condensed media such as water droplets, organic aerosols, soot, sea salt particles, etc., are thought to play significant roles in the troposphere. Reactions at surfaces have attracted special attention, in particular those occurring at the air/water interface of water droplets since clouds represent about 7% in volume of the troposphere. Typically, water droplets exhibit a high surface area to volume ratio and this is certainly a determining factor for surface reactions to compete with bulk reactions. The molecular properties of compounds interacting with an aqueous interface have been often considered as being intermediate between the properties in the two bulk phases but there is now compelling evidence that chemistry at the air/water interface may be quite different from both the gas and the bulk.

However, the experimental study of chemical processes at aqueous interfaces is not straightforward. To get further insights in this domain, in the last few years, we have developed a computational strategy that combines quantum chemistry methods, classical molecular mechanics models, and computer simulations based on the molecular dynamics approach.

In this communication, we report recently obtained results for the photochemistry of ozone at the surface of cloud water droplets. Photolysis reactions are central to atmospheric chemistry. Ozone in particular, absorbs UV and visible light and photodissociates to produce molecular and atomic oxygen either in the ground or excited states. Atomic oxygen can then react with water or methane molecules to form the highly reactive hydroxyl radicals, often referred to as the “detergent” of the troposphere. These processes have been widely investigated in the gas phase but when ozone is adsorbed at the surface of cloud water droplets, the ozone-water interactions modify the spectral signatures, and the mechanism and the kinetics of the photolytic (and subsequent) processes are presumably different and deserve to be investigated in further detail.

Indeed, our computer simulations predict that the hydroxyl radical formation rate at the air/water interface is enhanced by four orders of magnitude, suggesting that clouds can influence the overall oxidizing capacity of the troposphere on a global scale.

Southern Ocean wind response to North Atlantic cooling and the rise in atmospheric CO2

S.-Y. Lee (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan)

Abstract details
Southern Ocean wind response to North Atlantic cooling and the rise in atmospheric CO2

SY. Lee (1)
1) Academia Sinica, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Taipei, Taiwan

Abstract content

Southern Ocean, believes to be a CO2 sink (Takahashi, 2012), remains a mystery player in understanding the global carbon cycle and in predicting future climate change. Key evidence from marine proxy record indicates intensification of wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean during the late Pleistocene glacial terminations and suggests that the anomalous southern hemisphere midlatitude westerlies were forced by North Atlantic cooling via atmospheric teleconnection (Anderson et al., 2009). In this study, we investigate the response of Southern Ocean climate to North Atlantic cooling using an AGCM coupled to a reduced gravity ocean to link the empirical observation with climate theory. In comparison between our cooling and basic state experiments, we observed a nearly 25% increase in the Southern Ocean midlatitude westerlies in particular in the Pacific sector during austral winter. We propose a two-step mechanism of the north-south climate connection: (1) the response of the tropical ITCZ to North Atlantic cooling; (2) the resulting effect of the altered Hadley circulation on the Southern Ocean winds.  In light of the vital role of the Southern ocean ventilation to atmospheric CO2 concentration, we forced an earth system model with dynamical biogeochemical cycle by anomalous wind field observed in the AGCM and found a ~20 ppm atmospheric pCO2 rise in equilibrium state.  The model results support the hypothesis that the Southern Ocean wind-driven upwelling was susceptible to intensive North Atlantic cooling under a glacial climate. We emphasize the intimate coupling between the northern and southern hemisphere climate via atmospheric teleconnection mediated by tropical climate system.

Evaluation the accuracy of post processing approaches on RegCM4 outputs in forecasting precipitation( Case study: North West of Iran)

I. Babaeian (Climatological Research Institute, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran), N. Ghahreman (University of Tehran, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran), S. Lookzadeh (University of Tehran, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran)

Abstract details
Evaluation the accuracy of post processing approaches on RegCM4 outputs in forecasting precipitation( Case study: North West of Iran)

I. Babaeian (1) ; N. Ghahreman (2) ; S. Lookzadeh (3)
(1) Climatological Research Institute, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) University of Tehran, Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran; (3) University of Tehran, Irrigation and reclamation engineering dep., Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract content

The seasonal forecast of precipitation which is generally presented qualitative and probabilistic can be used for decision makings in agriculture, water resource management and hydropower production to alleviate the adverse effects of extreme events like drought and flood. The Earth Systems Physics (ESP) group of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) maintains and distributes a state-of-the-science regional climate model called the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM), which has been successfully used in different regions of the world for diverse range of climate-related studies. This study was conducted with two aims: Evaluation the performance of RegCM4 dynamic model in forecasting monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in four selected stations in North West of the Iran namely Tabriz, Ardabil, Khouy and Urumia and testing the accuracy of stepwise regression for post processing the outputs of model, in a 30-years period from 1982 to 2011. The required observed weather data of study stations for running regional climate model RegCM4 were collected from Iran Meteoroligcal Organization (IRIMO) archive and rest of the data were adopted from ICTP database, with NetCDF format including three sets of weather data NNRP1 with a 6-hour-time step and a horizontal resolution of 2.5 2.5  on the reanalysis data of National Center of Environmental Prediction of United States, sea surface temperature, (SST) with a horizontal resolution of in 1  from the type of (OISST) belonged to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and surface data (SURFACE), which were consisted of three topographic data (GTOPO), the vegetation or land use of (GLCC), and the soil type data (GLZB), with a horizontal resolution of 30 30 seconds from United States Geological Survey, for the period 1982 to 2011. To determine suitable rainfall scheme, the normal year of 2009 was selected for running the model using different schemes Accordingly, Kuo scheme with the minimum bias, comparing to observed precipitation amounts in the entire 36 synoptic stations of the region, was chosen as the main scheme. The time interval was set as 24-hour, spatial resolution of 30 30 km2, and the number of grid points were 152 in longitude (iy) and 168 in latitude  (ix) during the study period of 1982 to 2011.Geographical area center was placed at 30.5◦ (N) and 50 ◦ (E), respectively. The outputs of the model are three types; atmospheric (ATM), surface (SRF) and radiation data with the format of NetCDF, each containing a large number of meteorological variables. By excluding the precipitation (tpr) from the model outputs, the nine significant variables with the highest correlation with precipitation were determined as: q2m و t2m ،ps ،v1000 ،v500 ،u1000 ،u500، omega1000, omega500.For post-processing the outputs of the model, the multiple linear regression (MLR) approach was used. Except for the warm month, the output of RegCM4 showed a wet bias and overestimation. Applying multivariate linear regression equation, (and in some cases two-variable) on the output of the model led to a better agreement between observed and simulated values of precipitation such that, in 75% of the cases, the bias and relative error decreased for the monthly, seasonal and annual forecasts. At all stations except for Urumia, performing the post processing improved the accuracy of RegCM4 output at all time scales. Further scrutiny is recommended for explaining the variations among the stations

Environment and human migration in context of Climate Change: empirical insights from urban migrants in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

S. Bilegsaikhan (Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
Environment and human migration in context of Climate Change: empirical insights from urban migrants in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

S. Bilegsaikhan (1)
(1) Seoul National University, Department of Environmental Planning, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

Global climate change and regional environmental changes resulting from the process are known to influence ecosystem-dependent populations relatively directly. Human mobility, particularly rural-urban migration under the changing climate, is one of such complex issues that is highly context specific. This nexus of climate change-environment-migration is gaining growing attention not only from climate change researchers but also rural and urban development policy makers in the recent decades. Thus to contribute to the betterment of understanding of this social phenomenon and to provide with empirical evidence that could aid planning of adaptation strategies to future environmental changes in Mongolia, this paper presents a retrospective in-depth investigation of environmental factors of migration among urban migrants in Ulaanbaatar, who, before immigrating to the city, were traditional rural pastoralists in some of the most weather extreme prone regions in the country. Theorizing migration as one of possible adapting strategies taken by a household as a response to environmental changes, this study explores similarities and differences in forms of migration among households (vulnerable migration versus resilient migration), elements that have enabled successful migration (different forms of capital) and urban integration issues after settlement in the city. The study emphasizes on two major occurrences of drought and drought-related winter disasters since a major socio-political shift in the country - democratization in the 1990s. 

Migration and climate change in rural Africa

C. Cattaneo (FEEM, Milan, Italy), E. Massetti (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States of America)

Abstract details
Migration and climate change in rural Africa

C. Cattaneo (1) ; E. Massetti (2)
(1) FEEM, Milan, Italy; (2) Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy, Atlanta, GA, United States of America

Abstract content

We study how climate affects migration decisions of households in Ghana and Nigeria. If migration is part of the present adaptation portfolio of households to different climatic conditions, it is reasonable to expect that it will also be an adaptation to climate change. Thus, we also provide estimates of the expected impact of future climate change on migration in Ghana and Nigeria.

It is important to stress that we are interested in climate --- the average of weather conditions over a long period of time --- rather than in short-term weather fluctuations, which represent single realizations of climate. Our approach accounts for the long-run adaptation response to climate. The existing literature has instead mainly focused on the relationship between weather variability as well as weather extreme shocks, such as flood or drought, and migration. Overall this literature suggests that out-migration is a common response to agricultural productivity losses due to harmful weather events. The analysis of migration response to weather variation and shocks is a very interesting area of research but estimated elasticities should not be used to provide estimates of the response to slowly changing climate patterns.

In this paper we instead regress long-run migration patterns of households on climatic conditions and on other control variables. The advantage of this method is that it fully accounts for adaptation to the present climate. Migration is one of the many possible adaptations to local climatic conditions. The method thus identifies the relationship between climate and migration by exploiting the cross-section variation of climate and of long run migration decisions.

What is the expected shape of the relationship between climate and migration? It is reasonable to assume that with less favorable climatic conditions the incentive to migrate increases. However, migration is an expensive investment and it may be too costly for some households. High temperatures and extreme precipitation patterns reduce agricultural productivity in presence of agricultural adaptation for many reasons. However, migration is a costly investment. Climate change may increase the incentive to migrate but with incomplete and imperfect markets households may not be able to migrate because they may see a reduction in the very capital required to enable a move. Thus, given these different channels, working in opposite direction, the relationship between climate and migration decisions deserves an empirical analysis.

In this paper we narrow our focus on Ghana and Nigeria. The data are drawn from two different household surveys that gather individual as well as household information. We heavily draw on the predictions of the New Economics of Labor Migration, introduced by Stark and Bloom (1985), which emphasizes the role played by the family in migration decisions. Migration of some individuals respond to an overall family strategy, designed to adapt to current climatic conditions.

Our results reveal that the relationship between the probability that at least one member of the household is a migrant and temperature in the dry season is hill-shaped. A hill-shaped relationship results as well between precipitation in the wet season and migration. The highest propensity to migrate is at 23°C during the dry season and at 125 mm/month of precipitation during the wet season. This relationship holds only for households that are engaged in farming activities. The empirical findings reveal that migration decisions of non-farming households are not affected by climate. Our findings are robust to a series of alternative model specifications. Households located in districts with mild temperatures/precipitations have a positive chance to become migrant families if temperatures/precipitations increase. On the contrary, in districts with already high temperature/precipitations, the reverse occurs. Mild temperatures/precipitations benefit agricultural productivity and makes migration more likely. On the contrary, for higher levels of temperatures/precipitations, households may be caught in a poverty trap from which they cannot escape, as a consequence of productivity losses. We also calculate non-marginal changes of migration using geographically and seasonally differentiated climate change scenarios.

The Role of Climate Change for Migration in the Past, Present and Future

I. Schumacher (IPAG Business School, Paris, France), J.-F. Maystadt, (University of Lancaster, Lancaster, United Kingdom), E. Strobl (Ecole Polytechnique , Paris, France)

Abstract details
The Role of Climate Change for Migration in the Past, Present and Future

I. Schumacher (1) ; JF. Maystadt, (2) ; E. Strobl (3)
(1) IPAG Business School, Paris, France; (2) University of Lancaster, Lancaster, United Kingdom; (3) Ecole Polytechnique , Economics, Paris, France

Abstract content

In this article we investigate the changing role of climate change as a driver of migration. We take a temporal perspective, where we analyze why and how climate change affected incentives to migrate in the past, how it affects incentives to migrate in the present, and what this may tell us about how climate change may impact incentives to migrate in the future. Our focus is on economic determinants of incentives to migrate, and how climate change alters these economic determinants.

To this we add a meta-analysis of the literature on climate change and migration, where we study the determinants of migration and climate change in the literature. We single out roughly 60 articles that look at climate change as a driver of human migration. In particular, we focus on the common issues of publication bias, and as to what kind of datasets and variables tend to be the most informative.

 

 

 

International migration and climate change impact: a macro-economic assessment for SLR

G. Standardi (FEEM - Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy)

Abstract details
International migration and climate change impact: a macro-economic assessment for SLR

G. Standardi (1)
(1) FEEM - Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei, Venice, Italy

Abstract content

The relationship between climate change and migration has been poorly understood in the literature (Stern, 2013; Licker and Oppenheimer, 2013). Different methodologies have been used producing different outcomes (Beine and Parsons, 2012; Marchiori and Schumacher, 2011; Morteux and Barnet, 2009; Sheen and Gemenne, 2011). The aim of this work is to show under which economic conditions climate change can cause international migration and to what extent international migration can be beneficial or detrimental to reduce the economic losses of climate impacts.

To achieve this goal we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, which is calibrated to the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (Narayanan et al., 2012) for the year 2007. Differently from the GTAP macro-economic model (Hertel, 1997) we make possible for labor to move outside the borders of ten large macro-regions: Europe (EU), North America (NA), Latin America (LA), Former Soviet Union (FSU), China (Chi), India (Ind), Rest of Asia (RoA), Sub Saharan Africa (SSA), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Oceania and Japan (OJ). The physical impacts stem from the DIVA software (Hinkel and Klein, 2009). DIVA is a widespread tool which computes the land loss caused by Sea Level Rise (SLR) at a very high geographical resolution. The cumulative land loss in Km2 (submergence plus erosion) from 2007 to 2100 for each one of the ten regions is divided by the total amount of land in these regions in 2007. We use these ratios as negative productivity shocks affecting the use of both capital and labor in the CGE model.

In order to build a reliable economic and demographic scenario at the end of the century, we rely on the projections of GDP and population provided by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) for the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 (Nakicenovic and Swart, 2000). We have two cases. In the first one the labor is completely immobile at the macro-regional level while in the second one we model an integrated global labor market. The migration process is entirely determined by the movements of workers who react to the relative wage signals induced by climate change.

The results show a world SLR economic loss around 2.64% of global 2007 GDP under the assumption of immobile labor and a SLR economic loss around 2.59% under the assumption of mobile labor. Table 1 reports results. Rest of Asia is the most affected region by SLR but interestingly some regions as China, FSU, SSA and MENA gain from SLR. Except Rest of Asia, Latin America and India all the regions are able to decrease their economic losses or to increase their gains when the labor is more mobile at the international level. We observe a migration process mainly from Rest of Asia to the other macro-regions. It is worth noting that we do not consider within-region migration.

All this suggests that the international migration driven by a more flexible and integrated global labor market could represent a useful adaptation strategy option to slightly reduce the economic impact of SLR even if it cannot substitute in any way the adoption of strong mitigation policy to trim down damages, especially in the Rest of Asia.

Table 1% Productivity loss on labor and capital% GDP change (labor mobility)% GDP change (labor immobility)Net migration flow (Milions)
OJ-0.99-1.05-0.730.25
Chi-0.791.242.139.57
Ind-1.71-2.66-2.960.91
RoA-4.88-25.32-30.48-32.55
NA-0.92-1.22-0.770.86
LA-1.28-4.19-4.360.34
EU-1.75-2.74-2.68-0.75
MENA-0.353.344.395.17
SSA-0.274.116.1613.43
FSU-0.333.584.812.77
World -2.64-2.590

 

Changements climatiques et la Migration dans les régions de Mopti et de Sikasso

N. P. Cisse (Institut Supérieur de Formation et de Recherche Appliquée (ISFRA), Bamako, Mali), O. K. Famagan (Faculté d’Histoire et de Géographie, USSG, Bamako, Bamako, Mali)

Abstract details
Changements climatiques et la Migration dans les régions de Mopti et de Sikasso

NP. Cisse (1) ; OK. Famagan (2)
(1) Institut Supérieur de Formation et de Recherche Appliquée (ISFRA), Sciences Humaines et Sociales, Bamako, Mali; (2) Faculté d’Histoire et de Géographie, USSG, Bamako, Fhg, Bamako, Mali

Abstract content

« Changements climatiques et la Migration dans les régions de Mopti et de Sikasso »

Pierre CISSE et Famagan Oulé KONATE

Résumé

Cette étude a porté sur les communes de Dourou, dans le cercle de Bandiagara (Région de Mopti) située en zone soudano sahélienne,  avec une pluviométrie moyenne annuelle de 477mm et de Kouoro, dans le cercle de Sikasso (Région de Sikasso) en zone soudano guinéenne où les précipitations moyennes annuelles sont supérieures à 1 300 millimètres. L’approche méthodologique s’est appuyée sur une recherche documentaire, la réalisation d’enquêtes quantitative et qualitative.

Les résultats ont révélé que les populations des zones enquêtées ont une perception négative de l’évolution des facteurs climatiques, au cours  des 20 dernières années: diminution de la pluviométrie, hausse des températures et augmentation de la force des vents. 

Les conséquences de cette péjoration climatique sont multiples et diverses : diminution de la fertilité des sols avec pour corollaire la baisse de la production agricole ; diminution des ressources en eau (tarissement précoce des points et cours d’eau et leur ensablement), diminution du l’effectif du cheptel et des  pâturages, etc.

Face à ces effets néfastes des changements climatiques, les populations ont développé plusieurs stratégies d’adaptation  dont l’organisation des départs des membres de la famille, à l’intérieur (exode rural) comme à l’extérieur (migration internationale).

Les résultats ont montré que la commune de Dourou, à l’instar du plateau  Dogon, est une zone traditionnelle d’émigration orientée surtout vers le Ghana et la Côte d’Ivoire. Les migrations, observées au niveau interne dans la commune de Dourou, sont le fait d’une volonté manifeste d’accéder aux ressources encore disponibles dans les zones d’accueil. Par contre, dans la commune de Kouoro, cercle de Sikasso (zone de forte immigration interne), une rétroaction négative lie cette immigration aux effets néfastes des changements climatiques sur les ressources naturelles. D’où de nouveaux départs des populations de cette commune vers les zones aurifères et les grandes villes à l’intérieur du pays.

Les changements climatiques qui se sont amplifiés de 1970 à 1990, ont renforcé ces migrations internes. Comprendre le lien entre changement climatique et migration consiste à appréhender les facteurs d’accroissement de la migration et d’en évaluer les conséquences, les opportunités d’anticipation pour atténuer les mouvements de populations.

En vue de minimiser les effets néfastes des changements climatiques et des flux migratoires, les populations ont développé certaines stratégies qui son entre autres :

 

  • Le développement des activités génératrices de revenus (AGR) ;

  • La création de cantines scolaires dans les écoles pour diminuer la déperdition scolaire par la migration ;

  • L’utilisation des semences améliorées plus adaptées ;

  • la règlementation de la coupe du bois et le développement de bonnes pratiques de gestion des ressources naturelles pour fixer les populations sur leurs terres d’origine.

     Mots clés : changements climatiques, migrations, vulnérabilité, stratégies endogènes d’adaptation..

Climate change, human mobility and disaster risk reduction: The contributions of international law and pathways for implementation post-2015

S. Atapattu (Centre for International Sustainable Development Law, Montreal, Quebec, Canada), A. Kron (Centre for International Sustainable Development Law, Montreal, Quebec, Canada), K. Lofts (Centre for International Sustainable Development Law, Montreal, Quebec, Canada)

Abstract details
Climate change, human mobility and disaster risk reduction: The contributions of international law and pathways for implementation post-2015

S. Atapattu (1) ; A. Kron (1) ; K. Lofts (1)
(1) Centre for International Sustainable Development Law, Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Abstract content

Tens of millions of people are displaced each year due to natural disasters.[1] As the frequency and intensity of natural disasters and slow onset events such as drought increase due to climate change, rates of migration are set to rise further.

The inter-relatedness of climate change and migration has been emphasised in academic scholarship and public policy for a number of years. At the 2011 Nansen Conference, the Special Representative to the Secretary-General (SRSG) on disaster risk reduction, Margareta Wahlström, noted in her capacity as Chairperson that “[c]limate change acts as an impact multiplier and accelerator to other drivers of human mobility”.[2] Indeed, the draft negotiation text for a new instrument on climate change contains a call for a climate change displacement coordination facility as part of the loss and damage section.

Disaster risk reduction (DRR) can also provide means to prevent displacement (e.g. through early warning systems), and to mitigate the effects of such displacement.[3] As there is no UN organ dealing exclusively with migration, it is important that entities such as the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) contribute to furthering displacement issues, particularly in regards to disasters, which account for the majority of those forcibly displaced around the globe.

The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 strives to promote a culture of proactive measures in regards to DRR.[4] As the present Hyogo Framework will expire in 2015, UNISDR has been tasked with facilitating the development of a post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction. Thus, a new Hyogo Framework will be adopted at the World Disaster Conference in 2015 and then put forward to the General Assembly.[5] The Hyogo Framework is referred to in the proposed text for the Sustainable Development Goals,[6] and SRSG Wahlström has also emphasized the importance of such cross-fertilization.[7]

Scholars such as Elizabeth Ferris have proposed suggestions on climate change, resettlement and planned relocation, drawing upon e.g. the rules relating to development-forced displacement and resettlement. These considerations are partly reflected in the zero draft for a new Hyogo Framework, which calls for “regular disaster preparedness exercises, including evacuation drills”,[8] and in the negotiating text at the UNFCCC.

This presentation aims to examine the establishment and implementation of the new frameworks on DRR and climate change from an international legal perspective, looking specifically at the rights of displaced persons. A particular focus will be placed on internal displacement caused by climate change. First, this submission will analyse the existing obligations relating to migration and climate change, including voluntary mechanisms for human mobility and planned relocations. Second, it will cover methods of implementation, including good practices, monitoring, and the importance of reliable data. Lastly, it will feature some concluding remarks and potential areas for future research.

[1] Development of the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, Zero draft submitted by the co-Chairs of the Preparatory Committee, 20 October 2014, [Zero draft], Preambular para 3. See also Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Global Estimates 2014: People displaced by disasters, 
September 2014, p 7.

[2] Chairperson’s summary. The Nansen Conference on Climate Change and Displacement in the 21st Century. Oslo, 6–7 June 2011. 

[3] On early warning systems, see Asplet, Mike, Handbook for Parliamentarians. Internal Displacement: Responsibility and Action, Handbook no. 20 2013, IPU-UNHCR, p 58.

[4] UNISDR, Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the Resilience of Nations and Communities to Disasters, Extract from the final report of the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (A/CONF.206/6), para 13 (i).

[5] UN General Assembly, Resolution 68/211, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Resolution, 20 December 2013, UN Doc. A/RES/68/211.

[6] See proposed Sustainable Development Goal 11, target 9.  

[7] UNISDR, Proposed Elements for Consideration in the Post‐2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 17 December 2013, see e.g paras 13-15.

[8] Zero draft, para 31 c.

Small Island Developing States, Sea Level Rise and Migration: Exploring Sovereignty and Resource Rights in Abandoned Nations

D. Carey (University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada), A. Fuentes, (University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada)

Abstract details
Small Island Developing States, Sea Level Rise and Migration: Exploring Sovereignty and Resource Rights in Abandoned Nations

D. Carey (1) ; A. Fuentes, (2)
(1) University of Waterloo, Geography and Environmental Management, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada; (2) University of Waterloo, Geography and environmental management, Waterloo, Canada

Abstract content

Small island developing states constitute the world’s most vulnerable nations to the impacts of climate change. Countries such as Tuvalu face the very real risk of permanent abandonment within the next century as a result of sea level rise. The social, political and legal implications of migrants from vanishing countries is currently an area of intense research. Aspects such as retained sovereignty and self-governance in foreign lands are being explored at length. What is largely being overlooked, however, are implications of resource ownership within the borders of what could be described as an abandoned country. If the sovereign governing capacity of a nation collapses with the abandonment of said nation, do they retain formerly established resource rights, or do they become subject to laws of the high seas? To date, there is no legal answer to this question. To address these matters, as well as those of sovereign governing within a foreign nation, we propose that nations willing to host migrants work to establish a legal framework which mirrors the self-government agreements employed between Canada and First Nations populations. To make this relationship agreeable and beneficial to the host nation, we recommend that the government of the island set to be abandoned agree to cede or share resource rights within the territory waters of the abandoned nation. 

Ecological and social aspects of the Arctic zone of Yakutia, Russia

N. Stepanova (North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, Russia), G. Tuyara (North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, Russia), N. Bochkarev (Yakut Scientific Center, Yakutsk, Russia)

Abstract details
Ecological and social aspects of the Arctic zone of Yakutia, Russia

N. Stepanova (1) ; G. Tuyara (1) ; N. Bochkarev (2)
(1) North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, Russia; (2) Yakut Scientific Center, Yakutsk, Russia

Abstract content

Migration loss of population is characteristic for Siberia and Far East of Russia and is especially influenced Arctic zone. Number of population in Yakutia had shortened for 15% during 1990-2013, while in the Arctic districts of Yakutia – twice (for 53%). In 90-ies migration generally touched non-ingenious population who had migrated to other regions of Russia. Nowadays the internal migration prevails; people from the Arctic districts move to the ones with more comfortable climate and economic conditions and better jobs opportunities.

The fall of industrial production and quantity of population in Arctic had shortened the volume of pollution emissions caused by stationary sources in this area. In 1990-2009 it was reduced twice. In 1990 Arctic zone expel 21% of pollution emissions of the Republic Sakha (Yakutia), today it is only 12% of total mission in Yakutia. But because of the extremely low temperatures and massive permafrost occurrence the potential of Arctic nature to self-healing is low.

Today the main source of pollution is the living-support system, including heating system, transport, especially big vehicles which supplies Arctic zone with goods and fuels using winter roads. Housing and communal system in Arctic is characterized by high costs and low effectiveness, the huge disperse inhabited territory, isolated from the united energy supply system. Distances between populated localities in Arctic are about 600-700 km., heating period lasts from 223 to 365 days. Heating is organized by the low power disjointed boilers (with powers less than 2 Gkal/hour). These low efficiency boilers increase antropogenius environment pollution. Arctic districts heating system runs-out up to 80% and heat losses in the system are about 32%.

Arctic area deficits productive forces for neutralizing stationary sources pollutions. In Yakutia in general the level of neutralized pollution with regard to the level of its emission lowered from 75,9% in 1990 to 64,8% in 2009. While in the Arctic zone this figure started in 1990 lower, only with 15,7% and reached 6,6% in 2009. The same situation is observed in draining water downthrow: in Yakutia volume of draining downthrows is about 60%, while in Arctic zone there are now water cleaning facilities.

The decentralized energy systems modernization strategy of the North and Arctic zone focuses on the projects in alternative energy sources, automation of heating system. But nowadays it can hardly be implemented due to the limited access to the imported equipments and technologies, as well as to the local budget deficits. This situation can stay fixed for the several years.

Before soviet period Arctic was poorly inhabited territory with the extreme climate and poor food resources. This land cannot feed many people, and there were now huge settlements, people were spread over the territory for they can feed theirselves by hunting and fishing. Thaw the antropogenius pressure was low. Beside innovation and new technologies usage for the Arctic development it is necessary to determine the quantity of population limits in this area. It will allow making decisions in economic and social policy in this area. It is probably necessary to move people from the depressive districts of Arctic zone to more comfortable once.

A meta-analysis of long-term land management effect on Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in Ethiopia

A. S. Dakka (University of Bern (UB) and USAID/Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

Abstract details
A meta-analysis of long-term land management effect on Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in Ethiopia

AS. Dakka (1)
(1) University of Bern (UB) and USAID/Ethiopia, Science faculty (ub) asset and livelihood in transition office (usaid), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract content

The role of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in mitigating climate change, indicating soil quality and ecosystem function has created research interested to know the nature of SOC at landscape level. The objective of this study was to examine variation and distribution of SOC in a long-term land management at a watershed and plot level.

 

This study was based on meta-analysis of three case studies and 128 surface SOC data from Ethiopia. Three sites (Gununo, Anjeni and Maybar) were compared after considering two land management categories (LMC) and three types of land uses (LUT) in quasi-experiment design.

 

Shapiro-Wilk tests showed non-normal distribution (p=0.002, α=0.05) of the data. SOC median value showed the effect of long-term land management with values of 2.29 and 2.38 (g/kg) for less and better-managed watersheds respectively. SOC values were 1.7, 2.8 and 2.6 (g/kg) for Crop (CLU), Grass (GLU) and Forest Land Use (FLU) respectively. The rank order for SOC variability was FLU>GLU>CLU. Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test showed a significant difference in the medians and distribution of SOC among the LUT, between soil profiles (p<0.05, confidence interval 95%, α=0.05) while it is not significant (p>0.05) for LMC. The mean and sum rank of Mann Whitney U and Kruskal Wallis test also showed the difference at watershed and plot level. Using SOC as a predictor, cross-validated correct classification with discriminant analysis showed 46% and 49% for LUT and LMC respectively. The study showed how to categorize landscapes using SOC with respect to land management for decision-makers.

Nubians as Egyptian Indigenous people and Climate Change Mitigation

E.H.M. Ahmed (Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, Cairo, Egypt)

Abstract details
Nubians as Egyptian Indigenous people and Climate Change Mitigation

EHM. Ahmed (1)
(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable development, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract content

Egypt and Sudan are the most populous countries in Africa and the Middle East. Nile River is considered as a very important artery that joins Sudan and Egypt. Nile was an important part of ancient Egyptian spiritual life.

 

Nubian peoples are an ethnic group; they considered as one of the most ancient people all over the world, their civilization started more than 8.000 years ago. Lake Nasser is the second largest man-made lake in the world; among the impacts that were anticipated were the resettlement of the Nubian population in the area inundated by the reservoir, saving of historic monuments, health impacts and coastal erosion.

 

The climate models all estimate a steady increase in temperatures for Egypt, with little intermeddle variance. Somewhat more warming is estimated for summer than for winter.

 

However, since Egypt is mainly a desert and relies primarily on irrigated agriculture, precipitation over the country itself matters very little. Much more important are precipitation changes at the water sources of the Nile, which affect the vulnerability of water resources.

 

The potential impacts of climate change on coastal resources are ranked as most serious. Climate change induced sea level rise only reinforces this trend. In addition to this high biophysical exposure to the risk of sea level rise, Egypt’s social sensitivity to sea level rise is particularly high.

 

In general, although the models on average show an increase in precipitation, inter-model variation is so high that it is uncertain as to predict whether annual average precipitation will increase or decrease.

Understanding the Vulnerability to Climate Change Effects in East Africa. Case Study of Rice Farmers in Bugesera District, Rwanda

G. Rwanyiziri (University of Rwanda, Huye, Rwanda)

Abstract details
Understanding the Vulnerability to Climate Change Effects in East Africa. Case Study of Rice Farmers in Bugesera District, Rwanda

G. Rwanyiziri (1)
(1) University of Rwanda, Centre for geographical information systems and remote sensing (cgis), Huye, Rwanda

Abstract content

Located in the Eastern region of Africa, Rwanda has been faced with unusual irregularities in climate patterns including extreme temperatures, variability in rainfall frequencies and intensity over the last 30 years. In fact, the analysis of rainfall shows that, since 1992, Rwanda has been characterized by a declining trend with a remarkable variability in rainfall frequencies and intensity which resulted into serious floods in 1997-1998 and a prolonged drought in 1999-2000. This study has been conducted in Bugesera District to reveal the effects of climate change on rice farmers. According to the results, the rise in temperature and changes in the amount of rainfall and its distribution have altered the availability of water resources, consequently affecting the productivity of rice. The variability in the onset of the rainy season has led to variation in the start of the planting season which has negatively affected the production of rice. Assessment of people’s perceptions on ongoing change on rainfall and temperature patterns, and their adaptation strategies has been made. The respondents accept that there is a change happening in their area and have already started to feel its impacts. The study revealed that yields of rice have been distorted by changes in precipitation, temperature, as well as soil moisture. Flooding in lower zones of altitude along river Akanyaru have been reported for many times in the study area as causing the submergence of rice fields thereby damaging the growth and reducing the productivity of rice. In adaptation to climatic change effects, rice farmers have started to take on some adaptation measures. These measures include constructing water reservoir to collect water for irrigation use in the dry season, switching to new varieties of rice that resist to drought and flooding, and application of pesticides to combat with pests.

           

Key words: Climate change effects, vulnerability, rice farmers, Bugesera district

Geothermal Development in Kenya, a Climate resilient strategy?

C. Adongo (EHESS, Paris, France), B. Hazard (Institut Interdisciplinaire d'anthropologie du contemporain, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Geothermal Development in Kenya, a Climate resilient strategy?

C. Adongo (1) ; B. Hazard (2)
(1) EHESS, Anthropology, Paris, France; (2) Institut Interdisciplinaire d'anthropologie du contemporain, Institut National des Sciences Humaines et Sociales - CNRS, Paris, France

Abstract content

Due to high vulnerability and lower adaptive capacity, Africa is predicted to contend with greater impacts resulting from climate change. This could potentially hamper past and future developments.  83% of Kenya, for example, consists of Arid and Semi Arid land inhabited by populations which are highly vulnerable. Moreover, there is indication that ASALs are increasing, one consequence of deforestation and climate change. According to the Stockholm Environment Institute (2009), major droughts occuring in 1998-2000, 2004/2005 and 2009 resulted in economic losses worth approximately $2.8 billion from water and energy deprivation. Declined water levels in dams for hydroelectric power production also caused widespread electric power rationing. In accordance with the Kyoto protocol, calling for countries to commit to decreasing green house gases, and the World Summit on sustainable Development (WSSD) specifically requiring countries to commit to producing 10% of their energy from renewables, the National climate Change Response strategy of 2010 aserts; that following a low carbon development path will result in significant economic and huge environmental and social benefits. The focus is to zero rate taxes on renewable energy technologies and promote alternative renewable energy such as solar, bio fuels, wind and geothermal. Currently, the government is focusing on electricity production from geothermal sources, most of which lie within the central rift valley. Here, geothermal development can be considered a climate change mitigation measure as well as an adaptation mechanism. Firstly, with completion of the targetted 5300MW by 2030, the geothermal power production is projected to save 906008 tones of CO2 /year and further reduce significantly, use of fossil fuels in electricity production. Secondly, Hydropower, on which Kenya depends for most of her electricity, is dependent upon climatic conditions and therefore highly vulnerable in the face of climate change. Thirdly, close to 80% or rural households and small businesses depend on biomass energy. Affordable electricity from alternative source – geothermal, seen as the most cost effective means of power production, could mean decreased dependence on biomass and subsequent deforestation. Fourthly, Non-annex 1 countries like Kenya; in undertaking mitigation projects can gain from ‘carbon markets’, which allows for trading in Certified emission Reduction (CER) credits.  This contribution will explore the adoption and implementation of the geothermal industry in Kenya as a significant pathway to climate resilience.

 

Reconstructing 200 years of human-induced soil erosion in the Lake Baringo catchment (Kenya) based on sedimentology and geochemistry of lake sediments

A. Degefa (Ghent University, Gent, Belgium), I. Bessems (Ghent University, Gent, Belgium), R. Tjallingii (German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany), B. Cumming (Quen's University, Ontario, Canada), D. Verschuren (Ghent University, Gent, Belgium)

Abstract details
Reconstructing 200 years of human-induced soil erosion in the Lake Baringo catchment (Kenya) based on sedimentology and geochemistry of lake sediments

A. Degefa (1) ; I. Bessems (1) ; R. Tjallingii (2) ; B. Cumming (3) ; D. Verschuren (1)
(1) Ghent University, Biology, Limnology Unit, Gent, Belgium; (2) German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Climate dynamics and landscape evolution, Potsdam, Germany; (3) Quen's University, Biology, Ontario, Canada

Abstract content

Reconstructing 200 years of human-induced soil erosion in the Lake Baringo catchment (Kenya) based on sedimentology and geochemistry of lake sediments

 

by

 

Aynalem Zenebe Degefa1, Ilse Bessems1, Rik Tjallingii2, Brian Cumming3, Dirk Verschuren1

 

1Limnology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University, K. L. Ledeganckstraat 35,B-9000 Gent, Belgium

2Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Telegrafenberg, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

3Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario K7L 3N6, Canada

 

Keywords. Soil erosion, X-ray fluorescence; Magnetic Susceptibility

Summary. Land degradation due to loss of vegetation and fertile soils by strong erosion during the rainy season is one of the major environmental problems affecting the Lake Baringo catchment in Kenya’s central Rift Valley. In this study we used magnetic susceptibility, X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and grain-size measurements on sediment cores from Lake Baringo to trace the variable influence of human activity on catchment soil erosion through time. The three studied sediment sequences, recovered from different offshore locations, display a similar stratigraphy of fine-grained and low-organic lacustrine clays deposited above stiff clays representing a desiccation horizon dated to the late 18th – early 19th century.

High-resolution magnetic susceptibility and XRF data reveal a cyclic pattern of peak values with apparently annual periodicity, particularly in sediments dated to the early to mid-20th century. It is interpreted as alternating seasonal spikes of sediment influx from rivers and direct run-off, linked to increased population and livestock pressure. Results of grain-size analysis indicate that the very fine-grained clay sediments dominating this particular zone are derived from old lacustrine sediments, originally deposited in offshore areas of the early Holocene ‘mega-lake’ Baringo, but which is now part of the gently-sloping Rift Valley plains surrounding the lake today. Sediment thickness above the desiccation horizon increases towards the southern end of the lake, due to high sediment influx from the Perkerra and Molo Rivers, which drain the largest catchment area. Lead-210 dating of these 200-year sequences shows that variation in the rate of sediment accumulation is strongly influenced by historical lake-level fluctuations, with accumulation maxima occurring during lowstands due to sediment being concentrated into smaller area of accumulation.