Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

Menu
  • Home
  • Zoom Interactive Programme
Cliquer pour fermer

Wednesday 8 July - 17:30-19:00 UPMC Jussieu - ROOM 105 - Block 24/34

2226 - Health and climate change : the need for a diversity of approaches

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): S. Morand (CNRS-CIRAD, Vientiane, People's Democratic Republic of Lao), P. Saiag (University Versailles SQY, Boulogne-Billancourt, France)

Convener(s): S. Joussaume (CNRS, Paris, France), C. Pacteau (CNRS, Paris, France), M. Boniol (University of Strathclyde Institute of Global Public Health, Glasgow, United Kingdom), M. De Paula Correa (Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Itajubà, Brazil)

17:30

Ecology, climate change and health

S. Morand (CNRS-CIRAD, Vientiane, People's Democratic Republic of Lao)

Abstract details
Ecology, climate change and health
Abstract content
17:40

Ultraviolet radiations, climate change, and human health issues 2

M. De Paula Correa (Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Itajubà, Brazil)

Abstract details
Ultraviolet radiations, climate change, and human health issues 2
Abstract content
17:48

Both complex temporal signals and deforestation/land-use changes drive the emergence of human water-borne disease

J.-F. Guégan (IRD, Montpellier, France), A. L. Morris (UMR MIVEGEC IRD-CNRS-Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France), A. Demetra (Bournemouth University, Dorset, United Kingdom), L. Marsollier (Equipe Inserm Avenir ATOMycA, CRCNA INSERM U892 and CNRS U6299, Angers, France), J. Babonneau (Equipe Inserm Avenir ATOMycA, CRCNA INSERM U892 and CNRS U6299, Angers, France), D. Sanhueza (UMR BOREA IRD-MNHN-Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France), M. Le Croller (UMR BOREA IRD-MNHN-Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France), K. Carolan (UMR MIVEGEC IRD-CNRS-Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France), E. Canard (UMR MIVEGEC IRD-CNRS-Université de Montpellier, montpellier, France), R. E. Golzan (UMR MIVEGEC IRD-CNRS-Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
Both complex temporal signals and deforestation/land-use changes drive the emergence of human water-borne disease

JF. Guégan (1) ; AL. Morris (2) ; A. Demetra (3) ; L. Marsollier (4) ; J. Babonneau (4) ; D. Sanhueza (5) ; M. Le Croller (5) ; K. Carolan (2) ; E. Canard (2) ; RE. Golzan (2)
(1) IRD, Mivegec, Montpellier, France; (2) UMR MIVEGEC IRD-CNRS-Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France; (3) Bournemouth University, School of applied sciences, Dorset, United Kingdom; (4) Equipe Inserm Avenir ATOMycA, CRCNA INSERM U892 and CNRS U6299, Angers, France; (5) UMR BOREA IRD-MNHN-Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France

Abstract content

As urbanisation, population encroachment and deforestation increase across the globe, their effect on tropical freshwater systems can be dramatic with a loss of ecological function and a collapse in foodwebs often leading to an increase in opportunistic, highly fecund host or non-host species. Such shifts in community organization invariably lead to a change in the dynamics of water-borne diseases including bacteria such as the infectious Mycobacterium ulcerans. In addition, disease outbreaks can be triggered by combinations of climatic patterns occurring on a long (i.e. several years) and short (i.e. seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these host-parasite-habitat interactions. Understanding the impact of both these climatic variation and biodiversity changes on pathogen abundance is central in predicting future outbreaks and identifying hotspots of emergence. Here for the first time, a combination of statistical tests, foodweb metrics and stable isotopic data have been used to link climatic variation, deforestation and land-use pressures in the tropics to understand the emerging Buruli ulcer infection caused by M. ulcerans in French Guiana, northeast of southern America. We show that these rapid terrestrial habitat changes in connection with short and long-term climatic conditions lead to the collapse of freshwater foodweb structure. This collapse is accompanied by an increase in basal opportunistic and highly fecund generalist hosts of M. ulcerans. These host carrier species, notably belonging to the functional group filters, burrowers and detritivores, live at the interfaces between soil and water or between soil and vegetation, a huge source of potentially thousands of new microbial species which could make the leap from environmentally persistent to infectious. As urbanisation, agriculture and deforestation intensify in a global context of climate change, similar trends are expected to become apparent for many other more generalist emerging and re-emerging infections.

17:48

The Future of Emerging Diseases Under Climate Change: Current Knowledge and Synergistic Solutions for Health and Sustainability

J.-F. Guégan (Future Earth ecoHEALTH, New York, United States of America), W. B. Karesh (Future Earth ecoHEALTH, New York, United States of America), C. Machalaba (Future Earth ecoHEALTH, New York, United States of America), P. Daszak (Future Earth ecoHEALTH, New York, United States of America)

Abstract details
The Future of Emerging Diseases Under Climate Change: Current Knowledge and Synergistic Solutions for Health and Sustainability

JF. Guégan (1) ; WB. Karesh (1) ; C. Machalaba (1) ; P. Daszak (1)
(1) Future Earth ecoHEALTH, New York, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate change is anticipated to pose serious threats to public health this century. Infectious diseases present an especially relevant health consideration, as they currently cause over one billion human cases and millions of deaths annually. In particular, in many cases emerging infectious disease (EID) outbreaks in humans, which may be novel or appear in a new region, are sensitive to climate variability. On a micro level, temperature and precipitation-dependent pathogen development cycles may affect the basic reproductive rates determining pathogen survival and spread in a population, and may similarly affect suitable habitat range of its competent host(s). On a macro level, however, EIDs are dependent on a wide range of factors, and thus climate cannot be viewed in isolation when assessing risks. Rapid changes to ecosystems and resulting alteration in composition and abundance of species, as well as anthropogenic practices that are facilitating increased and novel human-animal contact, pose complex biotic dynamics that interface with abiotic climate variability. Given that changes in land use (e.g. deforestation), agricultural production, and global trade and travel are among the leading causes of disease emergence, and overlap with the underlying drivers of biodiversity loss as well as the major direct contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, integrated solutions can be taken to address challenges of all three. From the work of the Future Earth ecoHEALTH project and its partners, we highlight findings from ecological niche modeling for disease such as Nipah virus and malaria to examine the different dimensions of EID risks over the coming century, and propose near and long-term solutions that can mitigate known risks and better anticipate future risks where research gaps remain. Given the high economic impact of recent EID outbreaks, we also identify priority areas of collaboration with other sectors, including on strategies for land use and agricultural production, to minimize future burden of EIDs while simultaneously promoting a sustainable future.

17:58

How climate is intertwined with Dengue Fever Outbreaks in French Guiana

C. Flamand (Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana), P. Roucou (Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana), D. Rousset (Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana), V. Ardillon (Institut de veille sanitaire, Cayenne, French Guiana), M. Fabregue (LIRM-CNRS, Montpellier, France), P. Palany (Météo-France, Service Antilles-Guyane, Fort-de-France, Martinique), R. Girod (Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana), S. Briolant (Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana), P. Roucou (Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Dijon, France), J.-C. Desenclos (Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Saint-Maurice, France), P. Quenel (Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique, Rennes, France)

Abstract details
How climate is intertwined with Dengue Fever Outbreaks in French Guiana

C. Flamand (1) ; P. Roucou (1) ; D. Rousset (2) ; V. Ardillon (3) ; M. Fabregue (4) ; P. Palany (5) ; JC. Desenclos (6) ; P. Quenel (7) ; R. Girod (8) ; S. Briolant (9) ; P. Roucou (10)
(1) Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Unité d'épidémiologie, Cayenne, French Guiana; (2) Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Laboratoire de virologie, Cayenne, French Guiana; (3) Institut de veille sanitaire, Cire antilles-guyane, Cayenne, French Guiana; (4) LIRM-CNRS, Umr 5506, Montpellier, France; (5) Météo-France, Service Antilles-Guyane, Fort-de-France, Martinique; (6) Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Direction générale, Saint-Maurice, France; (7) Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique, Leres-umr 1085 irset, Rennes, France; (8) Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Unité d'entomologie médicale, Cayenne, French Guiana; (9) Institut Pasteur de la Guyane, Service de santé des armées, Cayenne, French Guiana; (10) Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Université de bourgogne, Dijon, France

Abstract content

Introduction

Dengue fever (DF) is a serious and potentially life-threatening infection acquired through the bite of infected Aedes aegypti mosquitoes and responsible for major outbreaks in French Guiana. DF transmission is driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental, anthrogenic and climatic factors which results in annual seasonality and multiannual variability. Although the onsets of outbreaks seem to be associated with the start of the rainy season, the mechanisms involved in the occurrence of epidemics are not well understood. With the objectives of explaining and predicting DF outbreaks occurrence in French Guiana, we explored the impact of climatic factors on DF epidemics at different spatial and temporal scales in French Guiana.

 

Methods

For this analysis that covers the 1991-2013 period, we used biologically confirmed DF epidemiological  data, climatological parameters including Niño and NAO indices, atmospheric reanalysis gridded data and meteorological stations record including rainfalls, temperatures, relative humidity, sunstroke average and wind force.

We sudied the association between incidence of DF and climatic variables to identify temporal predictors of DF outbreaks. Year-to-year disease variability was investigated by linking atmospheric and oceanic synoptic patterns to the epidemiological regional context. Finally, contextual sequential patterns extraction techniques were used at local scale and weekly time step to identify the most significant climatic factors influencing DF incidence dynamics.

 

Results

From 1991 to 2013, more than 23,600 biologically confirmed DF cases were recorded in French Guiana and 8 major outbreaks were identified. Annual activity was characterized by a seasonal increase of incidence levels during the first quarter of the year. We found that outbreak occurrence can be linked with summer Niño conditions, 6 months before the onset of the outbreak. Furthermore, a statistical model based only on climate indicators indicated that 30% of the disease variance from year-to-year is explained by the dry season rainfall, forecasting epidemic years with a hit rate of 75% and a positive predictive value of 75%.

At regional scale, the outbreak onset in specific areas was frequently associated with a 4-6 week lag with an increase in the relative humidity, high levels of rainfalls and a decrease of temperature. During epidemic period, local specific weather conditions were not predictive of the epidemic peak, where a predominance of the cumulative incidence occurred.

 

Conclusion

Using complementary approaches at different geographic scales we explored the role of climate conditions to understand and predict DF outbreaks in French Guiana. Our findings will be useful to timely target appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the effects of major outbreaks, particularly in areas where resources are limited and the medical services may become overwhelmed by large epidemics.

This first successful step opens new opportunities in the DF risk prediction. Future work will be a more in-depth focus on influence of future climate conditions according to different scenarios of climate change on epidemiologic patterns.

18:08

The PALUCLIM project. Impacts of climatic factors on the production of malaria vectors in the rural Sahel: Application to the Nouna region (Burkina-Faso)

C. Vignolles (CNES, Toulouse, France), C. Viel (Météo-France, Toulouse, France), V. Machault (Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France), R. Sauerborn (Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany), P. Dambach (Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany), A. Sié (Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso), C. Rogier (Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar), Y. Tourre (Colombia University, Palisades, United States of America)

Abstract details
The PALUCLIM project. Impacts of climatic factors on the production of malaria vectors in the rural Sahel: Application to the Nouna region (Burkina-Faso)

C. Vignolles (1) ; C. Viel (2) ; V. Machault (3) ; R. Sauerborn (4) ; P. Dambach (4) ; A. Sié (5) ; C. Rogier (6) ; Y. Tourre (7)
(1) CNES, Toulouse, France; (2) Météo-France, Toulouse, France; (3) Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France; (4) Heidelberg University, Institute of public health, Heidelberg, Germany; (5) Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso; (6) Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (7) Colombia University, Climate Physics /LDEO, Palisades, United States of America

Abstract content

Emerging/re-emerging infectious diseases with high epidemiological potential risks, lead public health managers to adapt their policies. Adaptation includes early knowledge of risks. The latter requires new tools to prevent re-emerging risks.

Infectious diseases such as Rift valley fever or malaria are closely tied to climatic and/or natural and anthropogenic environmental factors among which some could be identified using remote-sensing. Then  they can be assimilated into bio-mathematical models thus allowing re-emerging risks’ assessment. The French Spatial Agency (CNES) with its partners has developed a conceptual approach so-called Tele-epidemiology based upon studying climate-environment-health relationships with applicable products.

This multidisciplinary approach is based upon the study of the key mechanisms favoring the surge and spread of those diseases. Analysis of those processes is a key step in the development of new and original risk mapping using Earth observation satellite data. The primary mission is to show how those adapted space products could contribute to diseases surveillance policy and improve Early Warning Systems (EWS). The overall objective is to attempt predicting and mitigating public health impacts from epidemics.

This approach has been applied with success for malaria in Burkina Faso through the Paluclim project. This project was to apply the Tele-epidemiology conceptual approach linking climate, environment and vector-borne diseases such as malaria in the Sahelian region of Nouna (Burkina Faso). It was proposed to study the impacts of environment/climate variability on malaria entomological risk, a first step for risks of malaria outbreaks and then to analyze impacts from risks’ forecasting.

The project objectives were to provide and validate dynamic entomological risk maps, then to study adaptation processes for controlling management, i.e., addressing the predicted risk, and to study the impacts of climate variability (from seasonal to  low frequency climatic signals, including tendencies and climate change) on risks’ forecasting.

To achieve these objectives, the Paluclim project integrated efforts from several teams and partners: CNES, Météo-France, Public Health Institute of the University Hospital of Heidelberg (Germany), Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna (Burkina Faso) representing the Health Ministry. As such it benefited from previous expertise and results obtained by the different partners in entomology, climate, environmental sciences, and in Tele-epidemiology. In this work it was shown that:

  • based upon satellite (SPOT 5) and in-situ data it was possible to build an operational model to predict location of larvae sites and distribute dynamic maps on larval productivity for local villages ;
  • based upon the larval productivity maps for targeted larvicide strategy could be implemented.

The added-values from the use of entomological risk maps were obvious in terms of additional element such as economical savings for decision makers. The use of larval productivity maps for larvicide treatment was perceived locally as extremely positive.

As of today, rainfall is the main meteorological driving parameter for the knowledge of vectors’ density (which is used for the evaluation of entomological risk maps). The malaria entomological risk as a function of the weather/climate spatio-temporal variability was undertaken. An impact model was developed based upon an existing model (Graig’s model), particularly efficient when resources are limited. The climate analyses were done for different temporal scales (i.e., seasonal, quasi-biennial, inter-annual, low-frequencies and climate change). The model could thus be used immediately on an operational mode. It was found that the new main driving factor for the upcoming years will be the temperature increase leading to a decrease of malaria risks (for at least the next 50 years), knowing that models have a hard time to predict rainfall variability in the near future.

18:18

Will climate warming decrease winter mortality in Europe?

J. Ballester (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), J.-M. Robine (INSERM, Montpellier, France), F. R. Herrmann (Department of Rehabilitation and Geriatrics, Geneva, Switzerland), X. Rodó (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Will climate warming decrease winter mortality in Europe?

J. Ballester (1) ; JM. Robine (2) ; FR. Herrmann (3) ; X. Rodó (1)
(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain; (2) INSERM, Démographie et santé, Montpellier, France; (3) Department of Rehabilitation and Geriatrics, Geneva medical school and university hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland

Abstract content

The steady increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is inducing a detectable rise in global temperatures. The sensitivity and degree of adaptation of human societies to warming temperatures is however a transcendental question not comprehensively addressed to date. Recent studies have pointed to improvements in housing, standards of living and healthcare systems as primary factors explaining the progressively decreasing year-to-year association between excess winter deaths and winter temperatures in economically developed societies such as Europe and the United States.

Here we show the link between temperature and daily numbers of deaths in nearly 200 regions in western Europe, which are subsequently used to characterize the spatial picture of human vulnerability to climate conditions in winter. Our analyses show that only the United Kingdom, the Benelux and northern France have successfully taken steps towards the adaptation to harsh winters, and that the Mediterranean and eastern countries, including Germany, Austria and Switzerland, still remain sensitive to intense cold seasons. Results however reveal that the countries exposed to the most extreme climatological conditions in winter are the least vulnerable to cold spell episodes, while the incidence of these events is again particularly damaging in the temperate regions of southern Europe.

The different sensitivity of European regions to cold temperatures highlights the kind of adaptation strategies that each country has already implemented, and reveals the actions that could potentially be taken in order to increase the overall life expectancy. In the light of our results, the European society will remain exposed to the natural and anthropogenically-induced climate variability in winter unless a substantial degree of adaptation to both intense cold spells and harsh winters takes place.