Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

Menu
  • Home
  • Zoom Interactive Programme
Cliquer pour fermer

Wednesday 8 July - 15:00-16:30 UPMC Jussieu - ROOM 105 - Block 24/34

2206 - The World in 2050 – What does it look like and how do we get there?

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): N. Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria), J. Rockström (Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm, Sweden)

Convener(s): G. Clarke (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria)

15:00

The Sustainable Development Pathway

J. Sachs (Columbia University, New York, United States of America), J. Sachs (Columbia University, New York, United States of America)

Abstract details
The Sustainable Development Pathway

J. Sachs (1)
(1) Columbia University, Earth institute, New York, United States of America

Abstract content

The world has several partial pathways towards sustainable development that cover specific areas, such as agriculture or climate change. Yet, we do not have an integrated pathway that demonstrates how the economic, social, and environmental imperatives of sustainable development can be achieved in harmony with one another. Such a pathway would inter alia have to stay within global “planetary boundaries”, allow all countries to meet national development objectives, and maintain social inclusion. Moreover, a global pathway will need to be downscaled to major regions and demonstrate that every region can achieve sustainable development. 

Working with my collaborators on “The World in 2050” we will partner with major modeling organizations to establish an integrated sustainable development pathway. We will use the Sustainable Development Goals proposed by member states of the United Nations as a shorthand form of objectives for sustainable development.

This presentation will focus on the economics of sustainable development. A key research question is how mid- to longer-term economic models can incorporate the SDGs. This will be illustrated using a few examples from the emerging research. 

15:20

The World in 2050

J. Rockström (Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract details
The World in 2050

J. Rockström (1)
(1) Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm university, Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract content

One of the most pressing issues facing the global community post 2015 is how to realize the benefits of future global economic development within a safe and just operating space of a stable planet.

The World in 2050 Project will explore the implications of the necessary transformative sustainable development pathways and the possible ‘degrees of freedom’ to meet economic development goals within a safe operating space of a stable planet.

The project will generate the 1st generation of global scenarios that meet the twin objectives of economic growth and planetary stability and thus provide improved evidence, including macro-economic assessments, to political leaders in the SDG process, and other key decision makers, on the feasibility, challenges and opportunities associated with meeting long-term development goals, i.e., development goals that are truly sustainable at a global scale.

15:40

Beyond Paris to 2050 and thereafter - multiple benefits of a global transformation toward sustainable futures

N. Nakicenovic (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract details
Beyond Paris to 2050 and thereafter - multiple benefits of a global transformation toward sustainable futures

N. Nakicenovic (1)
(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract content

An objective of The World in 2050 Initiative is to explore the transformative development pathways at the global and regional scales that achieve convergent economic and social development within planetary boundaries. The presentation will focus on the main drivers of the transformation, their relationships including some of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and their targets, on policy measures, and on technological and social changes that would be needed for achieving the transformation toward the “safe and just space” that characterizes sustainable futures.  

An important research question is how high are the degrees of freedom in achieving this transformation, what are the prerequisites and implications. In other words, are there multiple transformative pathways especially at regional levels.  For example, Global Energy Assessment (GEA) developed 41 transformative energy pathways toward sustainable energy futures that included universal access to energy services for all, improvements in energy efficiency and decarbonization needed to stabilize climate change at two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Energy is one of the SDGs, but the challenge is to assess to what extent different SDGs, such as energy and water, can enhance each other and to what extent tradeoffs will be required in achieving different SDGs.

Finally, the presentation will conclude by assessing multiple benefits and opportunities that would emerge from the transformative changes toward sustainable futures. A key question to explore is the potential for achieving co-benefits and/or trade-offs of addressing multiple SDGs at the same time, which can provide critical information for policy and investment decisions, their synergies and possible conflicts among them.

16:00

The World in 2050 – the contribution of model-based scenarios

D. Van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Bilthoven, Netherlands), E. Kriegler (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), K. Riahi (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, Austria)

Abstract details
The World in 2050 – the contribution of model-based scenarios

D. Van Vuuren (1) ; E. Kriegler (2) ; K. Riahi (3)
(1) PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Climate, air pollution and energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, Austria

Abstract content

In 2012, governments worldwide renewed their commitments to a more sustainable development that would eradicate poverty, halt climate change and conserve ecosystems, and initiated a process to create a long-term agenda of action by formulating Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These SDGs will be agreed upon in 2015. Studies that depict pathways that relate near-term actions and a long-term vision could help implementing the SDGs by 1) providing a link between the 2030 SDG targets and an inspirational vision about a sustainable world in 2050 to a medium-term set of sustainable development goals (say by 2025 or 2030), 2) exploring what efforts would be needed to realize the goals and 3) providing information on the inter-linkages (synergies and trade-offs) between the achievement of the goals.

Integrated assessment models have been used extensively in the last few years to develop model-based scenarios to depict possible future trajectories with respect to human development and environmental consequences. They have also been used to develop scenarios that achieve certain future goals (e.g. the 2oC climate target). Most of these studies have looked into specific topics, but there has also been studies that took a broader set of goals comprising both environment and development targets such as the Global Energy Assessment, the Global Environmental Outlook and the study “Roads from Rio+20”. Overall, these studies have shown that it is possible to achieve an ambitious set of sustainable development targets simultaneously. However, this will require fundamental changes in the energy and food system. There are also important synergies and trade-offs between different objectives that depend on the specific strategy that is used to achieve them (e.g. specific technologies, different types of management and the role of lifestyle changes).

In the proposed presentation,  we will discuss how integrated assessment models can provide further insights into the question how to achieve the a set of sustainable development objectives (including the SDGs) in the 2030 / 2050 period, among others by using specific examples from existing studies. We will also discuss how the Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) can be used within the context of such an exercise.