Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Thursday 9 July - 16:30-18:00 UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM I

3304 - Climate change, carbon budgets and energy sector regulation

Parallel Session

Chair(s): J. Hardy (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, London, United Kingdom), K. Anderson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom)

16:30

The implications of 2°C carbon budgets for global energy systems

K. Anderson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom), A. Bows-Larkin (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom)

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The implications of 2°C carbon budgets for global energy systems

K. Anderson (1) ; A. Bows-Larkin (1)
(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

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The IPCC’s fifth assessment reports (AR5) have been widely heralded as delivering unequivocal and stark messages to policy makers. Of particular relevance to this paper is the inclusion, for the first time in the IPCC’s history, of explicit carbon budgets for differing probabilities of meeting a range of twenty-first century temperatures rises, from 1.5°C to 4°C. These carbon budgets provide a clear and quantifiable framework against which to assess technical and socio-economic policies for delivering the requisite rates and timeframes of mitigation.

 

With specific focus on CO2-only emissions from the energy system, this paper will revisit the framing of the mitigation challenge in accordance with the AR5 carbon budget range for a “likely” (66%), “likely as not” (50%) and “not likely” (33%) probability of maintaining the rise in global mean surface temperature below the 2°C characterisation of dangerous climate change. New estimates of the process-carbon emissions from the cement industry, combined with a revised carbon budget estimate for deforestation will be used to determine what CO2-only budget remains for the energy sector.

 

The paper will demonstrate that even assuming an unparalleled agreement at the Paris Negotiations in December 2015 (COP 21), alongside highly ambitious policies for reducing emissions from cement and deforestation, the energy-only budget of CO2 post-2020 will be radically more challenging than implied in AR5’s post-2011 budgets. For a “likely” chance of 2°C, and assuming global emissions peak in 2020, mitigation of energy-only CO2 would need to rise rapidly to well over 10% p.a. by 2025 and be maintained at that rate until the virtual elimination of CO2 by 2050. The story for a 50:50 chance of 2°C though slightly less dramatic, is nonetheless beyond anything yet countenanced by policy makers and only seldom referred to in the literature.

 

Whilst the implications of such 2°C pathways are interpreted by some as highly regressive, this paper seeks to outline a positive solutions-oriented agenda. The scale of the challenge in the twenty-first century, with globalisation and an increasing population, demands moving beyond the reductionist disciplinary tools of the twentieth century. A systems-oriented and interdisciplinary approach designs infrastructure and develops institutions to offer resilience and facilitate iteration; a radical departure from abstract and theorised optimisation. Set within this context of unprecedented rates of mitigation and rapidly shrinking timeframes, it is this intellectually more exciting agenda, that informs the papers quantitative, technical and social-science content.

 

 

16:45

Factoring Strategic and Sustainability considerations into energy sector policy and regulation: Insights from UK experience

M. Grubb (University College London, London, United Kingdom), J. Hardy (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, London, United Kingdom), J. Mills, (Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, London, United Kingdom)

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Factoring Strategic and Sustainability considerations into energy sector policy and regulation: Insights from UK experience

M. Grubb (1) ; J. Hardy (2) ; J. Mills, (2)
(1) University College London, Institute of Sustainable Resources, London, United Kingdom; (2) Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, Sustainable energy policy, London, United Kingdom

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The UK is widely seen as a pioneer of market liberalisation, and the UK regulator was initially established with a primary duty to promote competition, which was subsequently amended to a focus on protecting the interests of consumers.  The 2000s saw growing tensions between the renamed Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) and the government over strategic dimensions – particularly escalating concerns about investment adequacy (for security), and decarbonisation. This paper outlines the UK development of policy and regulatory structures in support of decarbonisation, explaining  the extent to which energy market structures and their regulation cannot be separated from the wider definitions of objectives and responsibilities.

Economic principles which fit one set of conditions and lead to one set of reforms may not be adequate in themselves when conditions or the balance of objectives change.  Attempts to give the regulator an explicit primary duty relating to either security or the environment did not succeed.  However the 2008 Energy Act ‘clarified’ its primary duty as being “to protect the interests of both existing and future consumers.”  In effect, this achieved the same thing: it gave the regulator an explicit duty to consider the longer-term implications of energy sector developments. The defining struggle within Ofgem was then its Project Discovery (2009), the findings of which were simultaneously lambasted from different camps as heresy, or derided as Ofgem finally “discovering the real world.” 

The conclusion that the UK electricity market structure could not guarantee security and could not deliver the scale of low carbon investment required led directly to the government developing the UK Energy Market Reform bill, which radically changes the economic structure of the UK electricity system. This paper outlines the main rationales, components and sketches the inevitable new challenges which arise. 

Ofgem also underwent internal changes, setting up a Division of Sustainable Development charged in part with ensuring that the concerns of future consumers are represented at the table of regulatory decisionmaking. Analysis of the issues at stake – and practical experience - led to the conclusion that attempts to aggregate the interests of present and future consumers (and potential trade-offs) through aggregate monetised cost/benefit appraisal was unworkable and potentially obscured rather than informed good decisionmaking. Following a 2-year process of research and consultation, in July 2013 Ofgem’s Board agreed a major restructuring of its Impact Assessment framework. This paper articulates this new framework and the thinking behind it and outlines challenges in its implementation going forward. 

17:00

National Plans for Utilization of Renewable Energy in Egypt

E. H. M. Ahmed (Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, Cairo, Egypt), M. W. Labib (EEAA, Cairo, Egypt), S. Tantawi (EEAA, Cairo, Egypt)

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National Plans for Utilization of Renewable Energy in Egypt

EHM. Ahmed (1) ; MW. Labib (2) ; S. Tantawi (3)
(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable development, Cairo, Egypt; (2) EEAA, Climate change, Cairo, Egypt; (3) EEAA, Cairo, Egypt

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Egypt has various opportunities for applying renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies. Thus to achieve sustainability in Egypt’s energy sector it is important to develop an overall national energy strategy that incorporates renewable sources and acts as an umbrella for the existing renewable energy and energy efficiency plans.

 

This strategy should be involved in the Egyptian development plan in all sectors, as this will help to overcome the existing barriers whether institutional, technical, financial, market, awareness and information or technological barriers.

 

The government, the Industrial Modernization Centre (IMC) and the Ministry of Scientific Research shall allocate funds for Research and development of RE & energy efficiency technologies. Four bodies may be responsible to establish collaborative work programs for 1) RET, RE systems component design and development, 2) Human Resources Training and development and 3) National innovation on near- commercial technologies and niches.

 

All sectors in Egypt should be integrated with this overall strategy for harmonization in actions, hence it became necessary to raise awareness on the vital importance of Renewable Energy (RE), Research and Development (R&D), and the need to rationalize energy use in homes, factories, and various production sites and services; to make this awareness and rationalization as a rule for behavior and the lifestyle in Egypt.

17:10

Present and future complementarity of wind power production in EU-28

F. Monforti (Joint Research Centre, Cadrezzate, Italy), M. Gaetani (Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris, France), E. Vignati (Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy)

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Present and future complementarity of wind power production in EU-28

F. Monforti (1) ; M. Gaetani (2) ; E. Vignati (3)
(1) Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Cadrezzate, Italy; (2) Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, LATMOS, Paris, France; (3) Joint Research Centre, Institute for environment and sustainability, Ispra, Italy

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The amount of wind energy injected in the European electricity transmission system is expected to increase in next decades following the energy transition triggered by Directive 2009/28/EC.  

Nevertheless, both absolute amounts and time patterns of wind electricity supply are different in each European country because of non-homogeneous meteorological conditions, Europe being large enough to span several different climatic areas.

Indeed, different types of weather are often simultaneously present in different areas of the continent, and any planned pan-European electricity transmission grid aimed at dispatching electricity production throughout the continent has to face the challenge of balancing  in real time differently intermittent and strongly inhomogeneous resources such as the wind production is.

In this study, the long term (90 years) on-shore potential wind power supply for European countries is simulated with a daily time resolution, on the basis of the wind fields provided for the period 1961-2050 by 12 regional climate models involved in the ENSEMBLES model intercomparison project. 

Thanks to this data base a long term view of the evolution of potential wind power deployment will be provided. In particular, the time complementarity of wind energy production originating from different countries will be analysed with a special attention to the implications that such a complementarity is expected to have for the needs for international electrical interconnections transporting electricity from high production areas to high demand areas. 

 

 

17:20

Tackling Offshore Oil & Gas GHG Emissions – Brazil's Experience

T. Bredariol (IBAMA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), C. Guilherme (IBAMA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), A. C. Luiz (IBAMA, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

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Tackling Offshore Oil & Gas GHG Emissions – Brazil's Experience

T. Bredariol (1) ; C. Guilherme (1) ; AC. Luiz (1)
(1) IBAMA, Cgpeg, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

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There is growing evidence that human pressure is substantially raising the risks of crossing planetary thresholds, such as safe CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. A viable future depends on mitigation and adaptation efforts in multiple fields and of special importance is the energy supply sector (IPCC, 2014). Estimates for the year of 2011 account for approximately 140 billion cubic meters of natural gas being vented or flared worldwide (GGFR, 2013). Although this is a decrease of almost 20% since 2005, there is still much space for further reduction and this downward trend is in danger of being reversed by a number of factors, including increase in oil production in several countries such as Brazil (GGFR, 2013). Only a few countries have introduced detailed secondary legislation regarding flare and vent emissions, such as codes and guidelines, even though it is paramount to effectively regulate this activity (World Bank, 2004). It is also a topic that interests the private sector (CDP, 2014). This work presents the experience of a Brazilian environmental unit (CGPEG) in building such legislation and mitigating GHG emissions from offshore oil and gas exploration and production.

CGPEG is a unit of IBAMA (Brazil´s federal environmental agency) that is responsible for analyzing environmental authorization requests for seismic activities, drilling, and oil and gas production offshore. Since 2010, it has been working on climate change mitigation, limiting or requesting compensation for flare emissions – a common GHG source in offshore oil and gas production projects. Flares burn gas, mainly composed of methane, that remains after: power generation on the platforms; gas injection and/or gas lift in the wells; or gas export to land facilities – chiefly through sub-sea pipelines. In 2013, CGPEG issued a guideline regarding procedures for mitigating GHG emissions, with detailed legislation and current requirements in the environmental authorization process. Two main conditions are normally made for high emitting activities: flaring limits (daily or for another stipulated period – such as the reckoned time necessary for oil production platform’s commissioning); or compensation, which may be direct (e.g. reforestation projects) or indirect (financial contribution to climate funds, such as the Amazônia Fund). As a result, over less then five years, estimates indicate that at least 225.552 tCO2eq emissions have been avoided and 3.024.160 tCO2eq compensated (equivalent to ~85,9x106 m³ of gas), generating over R$10 million funds for actions related to climate change. The industry has accompanied these developments, making gas and CO2 injection, closed flares and better commissioning plans a reality. Still there is a lot to be done towards more efficient energy practices.

References: IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

GGFR – Global Gas Flaring Reduction, 2013. The News Flare, Issue No. 14 September 2012 – June 2013. Available at: . Access: 19 Feb 2015.

World Bank. 2004. Regulation of associated gas flaring and venting: a global overview and lessons from international experience. Global gas flaring reduction - a public-private partnership: No. 3. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at: . Access: 19 Feb 2015.

CDP – Carbon Disclosure Project, 2014. Connection between climate change and business models: an evolving agenda - CDP Brazil 100 Climate Change - October, 2014. Available at: . Access: 19 Feb 2015.

17:30

Design and Construction of Domestic Jatropha Oil Pressure Cooker

C. Shonhiwa (University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe)

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Design and Construction of Domestic Jatropha Oil Pressure Cooker

C. Shonhiwa (1)
(1) University of Zimbabwe, Mechanical Engineering, Harare, Zimbabwe

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Household energy for cooking accounts for a big part of overall energy consumption in developing countries such as Zimbabwe. In Zimbabwe 70% of total energy consumed is used for cooking purposes and in general wood is mainly used. The use of fire wood is resulting in deforestation of large areas creating severe ecological and environmental problems. Smoke from incomplete combustion poses health risks to humans and the environment.The Jatropha oil which is environmentally friendly is readily available in parts of Zimbabwe and can be used for cooking instead of the use of firewood, gas or electricity which are not readily and affordable to the ordinary Zimbabwean.

 

This work deals with the design and construction of Jatropha Oil Pressure Cooker. The design consists of the frame, piping system and air cylinder. By using the principles of Fluid Mechanics this work established the power of the cooker as 170kW and the cooker would burn 1 liter of Jatropha Oil in 4 minutes giving an energy value of 35.2MJ when operating at a constant pressure of 1.2mPa

17:40

Panel discussion:

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Panel discussion:
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Gireesh B. Pradhan, Chair, Indian Elec Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, India, chairman@cercind.gov.uk

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Gireesh B. Pradhan, Chair, Indian Elec Regulatory Commission, New Delhi, India, chairman@cercind.gov.uk
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Dr Michael Hogan, Regulatory Assistance Project, US, MHogan@raponline.org

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Dr Michael Hogan, Regulatory Assistance Project, US, MHogan@raponline.org
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Daniel Munther, BNtetzA (German electricity regulator), Germany

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Daniel Munther, BNtetzA (German electricity regulator), Germany
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