Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Tuesday 7 July - 13:00-18:00 UNESCO Fontenoy - MIRO

Posters (List of concerned Posters available here)

Poster

Degradation of the Nyong River by the climate changes (Cameroon)

P. M. Mani Essomba (International Relations Institute of Cameroon, Yaounde, Cameroon)

Abstract details
Degradation of the Nyong River by the climate changes (Cameroon)

PM. Mani Essomba (1)
(1) International Relations Institute of Cameroon, International Cooperation, Humanitarian Action and Sustainable Development, Yaounde, Cameroon

Abstract content

Nyong is a river of the south- Cameroon, length of 640 km. It has its source 40 km in the east from the town of Abong- Mbang, in the large equatorial rainy forest. It runs parallel to the lower course of Sanaga’s river, following an east-west direction. It crosses the towns of Mbalmayo and Ayos and flows into the gulf of Petit Batanga, Guinea village located at 65 kilometres in the south-south-west of Édéa. Rapids intersect its course with Mbalmayo and Déhané. In the city Ayos, one can fish fish called “Kanga”.

The Nyong river flows through a good part of the south-Cameroonian tableland. It nourishes approximately 4 million individuals. With the varied and formerly abundant natural resources, the river Nyong is about today in the process of undergoing an ecological disaster without precedent. This river has been for several years, the seat of a series of aggressions (overfishing, bush fires, deforestation, erosion of the banks, silting, various pollution), which affects its medium of life and destroys its biodiversity. This constant rise of the dangers enabled possibly to conclude in an alarmist and pessimistic way that: if nothing is done in the twenty next years, the river could disappear.

The conditions of flow of the river are unfavourable with its blooming. Pollution, anthropic activities and the phenomena of eutrophication are hardly favourable to the survival of the hydrological rate of flow of the Centre and the South region. Lost in meanders of the forests of east-Cameroon at the Atlantic coast, this river is dying. Because, attacked by the combined action of the man and the climate changes.

This river with almost still water on most of its course dies blackened by the drying of silts. The first drawback is the action of the human being, through his demographic pressure on the banks, the deforestation of the valley of the river for cultures, the discharge of waste by the sawmills and other abattoirs, the confluence of the Mfoundi river via the Mefou river, carting all kinds of pollution of the town of Yaoundé, in an absence of an environmental culture. The nature is also one of the causes. Climate changes alternating draining of affluent and devastated floods. We are not mentioning these unforeseen elements, concerning the invasion of part of the bed of the river by the hyacinth water and other luxuriant vegetations. And yet, the river Nyong brought satisfaction to the needs of its residents. Furthermore, his economy based on fishing; especially the fishing of the “kanga” and collects of other halieutical resources. It is also harnessing, the industrial treatment and the drain of its water to the taps of Yaoundé. Then, the question that brings up these findings is: What to do, to lend the river Nyong his patent letters of nobility?

Use of Differential SAR Interferometry for vertical ground motions monitoring in coastal cities

D. Raucoules (BRGM, ORLEANS, France)

Abstract details
Use of Differential SAR Interferometry for vertical ground motions monitoring in coastal cities

D. Raucoules (1) ; G. Woppelmann (2) ; G. Le Cozannet (1) ; M. De Michele (1)
(1) BRGM, ORLEANS, France; (2) LIENSS - univ la Rochelle, La Rochelle, France

Abstract content

Before the altimetry era, tide gauge are a unique source of information to evaluate past sea-level changes. However, they can be affected by vertical ground motions acting at different space scales. We use synthetic aperture radar techniques to assess these ground motions and their consequences for geodetic instruments such as Tide Gauge, GPS, Doris stations. Summarizing results obtained at Alexandria (Egypt; Woppelmann et al., 2013), Manila (Philippines; Raucoules et al., 2013) and Dakar (Senegal; Le Cozannet et al., subm.), we identify different situations in terms of data availability and ground motion context: - when strong ground motions affect the tide gauge, the technique can easily help rejecting tide gauges records from the database of reliable datasets (case of Manila) - however, when no ground motions can be observed using InSAR in the vicinity of geodetic instruments (Case of Alexandria and Dakar), it remains challenging to reach the accuracy required to confirm that tide gauge records are indeed suitable for monitoring sea level changes. To reach the required accuracy of this InSAR application, a large set of SAR data must have been acquired over the area. For future science application of Sentinel 1 in the field of geodesy underpinning sea level science, it will be necessary to define appropriate background missions covering coastal sites where key records have been aquired.

60-year Database of Cosmic-Ray Neutron Fluxes held by the WDC for Cosmic Rays

T. Watanabe (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Koganei, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract details
60-year Database of Cosmic-Ray Neutron Fluxes held by the WDC for Cosmic Rays

T. Watanabe (1)
(1) National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Integrated Science Data System Research Laboratory, Koganei, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract content

It has been suggested by a number of authors that fluctuations in the cosmic-ray, which are known to be caused by changes in solar activity with the time scale of eleven years or longer, could play a role in climate change. The World Data Center (WDC) for Cosmic Rays of Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, is almost unique data center providing with pressure-corrected and scale-adjusted one-hour fluxes of cosmic-ray, supplied by ground-based stations (about 50 at present) distributed in a wide range of the longitude and the latitude, including polar and equatorial regions. Quality controlled data since 1953 in unified formats are opened through the Web page whose ULR is given below. Beside of well-known “11-year” solar-cycle variations of the cosmic-ray flux, appearing in the opposite sense of the variations of sunspot number, a weak increasing trend can be recognized in this several solar cycles, reflecting a weakening tendency of the solar activity. Although a weak inverse correlation is seen between the cosmic-ray flux and the global temperature in 1953-2006, the correlation analysis is strongly affected by the global cooling presumably caused by two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon in 1982, and Pinatubo in 1991). Both eruptions were “accidentally” taken place in two subsequent solar-cycle maxima.

 

http://center.stelab.nagoya-u.ac.jp/WDCCR/.

A 2700 cal yr BP extreme flood event revealed by sediment accumulation in Amazon floodplains

P. Moreira-Turcq (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Lima, Peru)

Abstract details
A 2700 cal yr BP extreme flood event revealed by sediment accumulation in Amazon floodplains

P. Moreira-Turcq (1) ; B. Turcq (2) ; L. Silva Moreira (3) ; RC. Cordeiro (3) ; M. Amorim (3) ; JL. Guyot (4)
(1) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, GET, Lima, Peru; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, LOCEAN, Lima, Peru; (3) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geoquimica, Niteroi, Brazil; (4) IRD, Lima, Peru

Abstract content

Climatic conditions are one of the most important factors affecting hydrological processes in fluvial systems. Higher discharges are responsible for higher erosion, greater transport, and also higher deposition. Consequently, sediment accumulation in Amazonia floodplain river-connected lakes can be directly related to hydrological patterns of the Amazon River mainstream. In this context, we analyzed five sediment cores taken in two floodplain systems situated in the lower Amazon River, to investigate sediment accumulation patterns during the Holocene. Our records show abrupt fluctuations in sedimentation rates in lakes that can reach more than 2 cm/yr during some periods. We find that in all cores, sediment stratigraphy is characterized by packages of sediments of uniform age, which are typically 10–80 cm thick and present a variegated color. The 14C age of the upper package is about 2700 cal yr BP. During this abrupt event, sediment accumulation rates in floodplain lakes can be at least 200 times higher than those of “normal” periods. This sedimentation event is interpreted as being the consequence of one or several successive extreme floods. The 2700 cal yr BP event has been also observed in other sites in South America and other regions in the world, although different impacts can be observed in each system. This event probably corresponds to a conjunction of favorable conditions for extreme Amazon discharge associated with the Middle to Late Holocene increase of austral summer insolation and shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) from northern to southern positions. In this context, a marked negative peak in solar irradiance at 2700 cal yrs BP seems to have provoked cooling on the continents and a southward shift of the ITCZ associated with a probable reduction in Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation. 

A Climate Observatory in South West Indian Ocean: The Maïdo Observatory in La Réunion. Current achievements and Future Prospects

J.P. Cammas (CNRS & Universite de La Reunion, Saint Denis de la Reunion, France)

Abstract details
A Climate Observatory in South West Indian Ocean: The Maïdo Observatory in La Réunion. Current achievements and Future Prospects

JP. Cammas (1) ; C. Barthe (2) ; E. Blanc (3) ; C. Brognez (4) ; A. Colomb (5) ; V. Duflot (1) ; P. Goloub (4) ; A. Hauchecorne (6) ; N. Kaempfer (7) ; P. Keckhut (8) ; DBJ. Leclair () ; MM. De (9) ; G. Payen (1) ; T. Portafaix (2) ; F. Posny (2) ; M. Ramonet (10) ; J. Sciare (10) ; K. Sellegri (5) ; P. Tulet (2) ; F. Vimeux (10)
(1) CNRS & Universite de La Reunion, OSU-Reunion, Saint Denis de la Reunion, France; (2) CNRS & Université de La Réunion , Lacy, Saint Denis de la Réunion, France; (3) CEA, DASE, Arpajon, France; (4) CNRS and Université de Lille, Loa, Lille, France; (5) CNRS and Université Blaise Pascal, Lamp, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (6) CNRS, Latmos, Guyancourt, France; (7) University of Bern, Institute of applied physics, Bern, Switzerland; (8) LATMOS-IPSL, Guyancourt, France; (9) IASB / BIRA, Institut d'aéronomie spatiale de belgique, Brussels, Belgium; (10) CNRS and Université de Versailles Saint Quentin, Lsce, Gif Sur Yvette, France

Abstract content

Observatories of the climate system are essential to assess future climate predictions that are central and fundamental requirements for determining future mitigation strategies. Such observing  platforms  are very few ones in the tropical southern hemisphere. CNRS, Université de La Réunion,  Région Réunion and the European FEDER program support  together the construction of a high-altitude  observatory which is operational since October 2012 in La Réunion (South West Indian Ocean, 2160 m asl, latitude 21°S, longitude 55°E). The Maïdo observatory takes over from its predecessor programs at sea level over the island who started long-term observation data of atmospheric chemical composition since 1994. The Maïdo observatory is an ideal platform to sample the atmosphere with different techniques (in-situ analysers,  radiosounding,  passive and active remote sensing) and to record surface measurements and vertical profiles from ground to the mesosphere over a subtropical latitude band poorly sampled by other international programs. The Maïdo observatory hosts lidars, one UV spectrometer, one radiosonding station, FTIR spectrometers, microwave radiometers, one lightning antenna, cameras, one GNSS station, microbarometers, etc. These devices sample many atmospheric parameters (e.g., meteorological parameters, reactive and greenhouse gases, aerosols, lightning and transient luminous events, infrasounds, etc).  Part of this very extensive range of instruments is approved and belongs to international networks like NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change), SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes),  TCCON (Total Carbon Column Observing Network), and WWLLN (World Wide Lightning Location Network).  In-situ analysers regroup measurements of reactive and greenhouse gases, and aerosols measurements approved by or applying to networks like GAW/WMO (Global Atmospheric Watching / World Meteorological Organization), ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observing System). The Maïdo observatory is currently the only way to provide regular remote and in-situ atmospheric observations at subtropical latitudes and at high resolutions (seconds in time, few tenths of meters vertically) over a marine-remote region poorly sampled by other programs. It provides data for users in science and policy including air quality forecasting, verification of CO2 emissions and Kyoto monitoring, numerical weather prediction, and validation of global chemical transport model, global climate chemical model and satellite products. Since its participation in on-going European projects (NORS, ACTRIS-2, ARISE-2), and thanks to the start of delivery of data in near real time, the Maïdo observatory will largely contribute to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS). The Maïdo observatory is open to transnational access thanks to its participation in european programmes like ACTRIS-2 and ENVRIplus.  This presentation will give an overview of  results achieved so far and a number of highlights to illustrate the promise Maïdo observatory data hold for the future, allowing new applications and analysis for a broad community of users.

A mineralogical and organic geochemical overview of the effects of Holocene changes in Amazon River flow on three floodplain lakes

L. Silva Moreira (Universidade Federal Fluminense, Niteroi, Brazil)

Abstract details
A mineralogical and organic geochemical overview of the effects of Holocene changes in Amazon River flow on three floodplain lakes

L. Silva Moreira (1) ; P. Moreira-Turcq (2) ; B. Turcq (3) ; RC. Cordeiro (4) ; S. Caquineau (5)
(1) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geoquimica, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, GET, Lima, Peru; (3) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Lima, Peru; (4) Universidade Federal Fluminense, Departamento de geoquimica, Niteroi, Brazil; (5) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Bondy, France

Abstract content

A synthesis of the impacts of the Amazon River hydrological changes on the sedimentation process of organic matter (OM) in three different floodplain lakes (Santa Ninha, Maracá, and Comprido lakes) is presented in this study. Today the Santa Ninha and Maracá lakes are directly and permanently connected with the main channel of the Amazon River, in contrast to Comprido Lake, which is indirectly and periodically influenced by the Amazon River due to its greater distance from the main channel. All three lake sediment records showed a reduced river inflow due to dry climatic conditions during the early and middle Holocene followed by an increased fluvial input during the wetter late Holocene. In Santa Ninha and Maraca Lakes, the reduced river inflow period was recorded by sediments with a low abundance of smectite (on average ~20 wt.%), a clay mineral mainly transported by the fluvial system, and high total organic carbon (TOC) contents (on average ~8.2 wt.%). During the late Holocene, a higher smectite abundance (on average ~43 wt.%) and a lower TOC content (on average ~1.4 wt.%) pointed to greater dilution by riverine lithogenic matter. This change was accompanied by the increase in aquatic primary productivity, as shown by the increased δ13C values and by a C/N typical of algae, suggesting a higher lake water level. In Comprido Lake, a sedimentation gap occurred during the early and middle Holocene. The wetter late Holocene, from 3000 cal years BP onwards, a gradual increase of the TOC, chlorophyll derivatives and Aulacoseira sp. suggest an increase in the productivity and in water lake level due to the high water flow of the Amazon River and the catchment area as well. Consequently, our study shows that the sedimentation processes of organic matter in Amazonian floodplain lakes were strongly influenced by variations in the hydrodynamic regime of the Amazon River during the Holocene. However, the impacts of the variations on the three floodplain lakes were different depending on the distance of each lake from the main channel of the Amazon River.

Aerosol optical properties and dynamic variability of climatic seasons in west Africa: Case study of Ouagadougou

B. Korgo (University of Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)

Abstract details
Aerosol optical properties and dynamic variability of climatic seasons in west Africa: Case study of Ouagadougou

B. Korgo (1) ; JC. Roger (2) ; J. Bathiebo (3)
(1) University of Ouagadougou, Physique, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (2) University of Maryland, Geography, Washington, United States of America; (3) University of Ouagadougou, Physics, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Abstract content

We present in this paper a climatological study of the optical properties of the atmosphere in West Africa. Using the measurement and photometric inversions data of AERONET in Ouagadougou, we analyze the main optical characteristics such as optical thickness, Angstrom exponent, the single scattering albedo and the asymmetry factor. These properties give quite varied information about the size and chemical nature of atmospheric aerosols in West Africa, particularly in the Sahel region. A study of different variabilities of these properties on a monthly and yearly scale, shows a strong connection with the seasonal succession of dry period marked by the predominance of harmattan winds from the Sahara Desert, laden with dust and wet period characterized by the thrust of the monsoon flow laden with moisture, specific to this part of the world. The spatial and temporal evolution of these atmospheric variables coupled with the dynamics of West African climate allows monitoring of the ascent to the north of the intertropical front marking the beginning of the wet season and its come back to the south at the end of this season. An appropriate positioning of AERONET photometric measurements points can allow a long-term monitoring at the regional level of the beginning, the end and the length of seasons and as such appears as a real tool for monitoring climate change in West Africa.

Altimeter sea level rise assessment with tide gauge measurements

M. Ablain, (CLS, Ramonville St Agne, France)

Abstract details
Altimeter sea level rise assessment with tide gauge measurements

P. Prandi, (1) ; M. Ablain, (1) ; G. Valladeau, (1)
(1) CLS, Dos, pmc, Ramonville St Agne, France

Abstract content

Since the first altimeter missions and the improvements performed in the accuracy of sea surface height measurements from 1992 onwards, the importance of global quality assessment of altimeter data has been increasing. Global CalVal studies usually assess this performance by the analysis of internal consistency and cross-comparison between all missions. The overall quality assessment of altimeter data can be performed by analyzing their internal consistency and the cross-comparison between all missions.

As a complementary approach, tide gauge measurements are used as an external and independent reference to enable further quality assessment of the altimeter sea level and provide a better estimate of the multiple altimeter performances. In this way, both altimeter and tide gauge observations, dedicated to climate applications, require a rigorous quality control. The tide gauge time series considered in this study derive from several networks (GLOSS/CLIVAR, PSMSL, REFMAR) and provide sea-level heights with a physical content comparable with altimetry sea level estimates.

Concerning altimeter data, the long-term drift assessment can be evaluated thanks to a widespread network of tide gauges. Thus, in-situ measurements are compared with altimeter sea level for the main altimeter missions. If altimeter time series are long enough, tide gauge data provide a relevant estimation of the global Mean Sea Level (MSL) drift calculated for all the missions.  Moreover, comparisons with sea level products merging all the altimeter missions together have also been performed using several datasets, among which the AVISO delayed-time Sea Level Anomaly grids.

An Open-Source Climate Change Curriculum for University Education Based on IPCC Synthesis Science

K. Nicholas (Lund University, Lund, Sweden)

Abstract details
An Open-Source Climate Change Curriculum for University Education Based on IPCC Synthesis Science

K. Nicholas (1) ; P. Ambros (2) ; N. Nasir (2) ; E. Redford, (2) ; C. Tsoi (2) ; MS. Weschke (2)
(1) Lund University, Centre for Sustainability Studies, Lund, Sweden; (2) Lund University , International master's programme in environmental studies and sustainability science, Lund, Sweden

Abstract content

In order to meaningfully participate in a civic society increasingly shaped by climate change, a climate-literate citizen should be able to read and understand the summaries for policymakers produced by the IPCC, which represent the current state of the art in the scientific understanding of climate change. However, although outreach and dissemination efforts have been increasing, to date we are not aware of any efforts to link the IPCC reports with curriculum design in higher education. Developing such links is essential to ensure that students are equipped with the skills and knowledge they will need. It can also improve teaching experiences through increased efficiency in course preparation, linking teaching and research, and in sharing best teaching practices with participating colleagues.

 

Here we develop a framework for teaching a comprehensive university course on climate change that is aligned with IPCC synthesis findings, assess how many of its core elements are addressed by courses offered at top international universities, and compile suggested teaching resources to fully equip students to understand climate change.

 

To develop the framework, we identified six core topics derived from scientific literature and syntheses, as well as research on effective climate communication. The six core topics were given the short labels: (1) It’s climate, (2) It’s warming, (3) It’s us, (4) We’re sure, (5) It’s bad, and (6) We can fix it. The six core topics were then broken down into two to four major components (e.g., “Observed changes” under “It’s warming”), each of which consists of one or more concrete elements (e.g., “Atmospheric warming”). To finalize the components and elements, two independent researchers used qualitative analysis software to code the entire text and graphics of the 2014 IPCC Synthesis Report – Summary for Policymakers to ensure that all aspects of the essential messages of the IPCC findings were represented in our framework.

 

Based on analysis of syllabi available online or provided by course instructors from seventy university courses, we found that the majority (56%) covered only one of the six core topics; only one course (at Harvard University) covered all six topics. Within the core topics, the most commonly taught (by 60% of courses) was “It’s climate,” focusing on the functioning of the natural climate system. Less than 20% included climate change impacts (“It’s bad”), and less than a third focused on climate change policy and solutions (“We can fix it.”)

We contacted the instructors at the ten universities who taught four, five, or six of the core topics and requested their contribution of teaching and assessment materials, which we used along with other materials we identified to develop a comprehensive curriculum. The curriculum is based on the principles of constructive alignment, and includes a course syllabus, readings, lectures, labs, problem sets, and suggested learning and assessment activities. The curriculum will be freely available online as a teaching resource.

 

We have shown that there is a need for a comprehensive, research-based climate change course in higher education, which at present is largely unmet. Such courses are essential to promote deep student learning using thoughtfully designed teaching and assessment activities to promote intended learning outcomes, as well as the real-world illustration of the method of scientific inquiry applied to socially relevant problems. Ultimately, using scientific syntheses as the basis for university curricula would help close the gap between research and classroom learning, promote increased scientific understanding, and help ensure that the resources devoted to scientific synthesis efforts are translated to broader benefits for society.

An upper limit of future sea-level rise

A. Levermann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, France)

Abstract details
An upper limit of future sea-level rise

A. Levermann (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, France

Abstract content

For  coastal protection an upper limit of future sea-level rise is of much higher value than the likely range provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR-5. Based on state-of-the-art process-based simulations and physical considerations, an upper limit for the global mean sea-level rise of the 21st century is presented. It is shown that this upper limit is consistent with the likely range provided by the IPCC-AR5, but far exceeds the upper value of this likely range. For practical purposes a full probability distribution is suggested which is both consistent with the IPCC-range and the upper limit estimate.

Analyses of altimetry errors using Argo and GRACE data

J.F. Legeais (CLS, Ramonville St Agne, France)

Abstract details
Analyses of altimetry errors using Argo and GRACE data

JF. Legeais (1) ; P. Prandi, (2) ; M. Ablain, (2) ; N. Picot (3)
(1) CLS, Space Oceanography Division, Ramonville St Agne, France; (2) CLS, Dos, pmc, Ramonville St Agne, France; (3) CNES, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

Since the first altimeter missions and the improvements performed in the accuracy of sea surface height measurements from 1992 onwards, the importance of global quality assessment of altimeter data has been increasing. Global Cal/Val studies are usually performed by the analysis of internal consistency and cross-comparison between all missions. In this study, the steric and mass contributions to the sea level provided by Argo profiling floats and the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission respectively are used as independent sources of comparison to analyze the altimetry errors.

Argo profiling floats are spread out over almost the global open ocean since 2004. However, they measure temperature and salinity vertical profiles, providing only the steric contribution to the total sea level content measured by altimeters. The missing mass contribution is derived from the GRACE data set from 2003 onwards.

The comparison is performed with the first objective of detecting global and regional altimeter mean sea level drifts. A second goal is to assess the impact of new altimeter standards (orbit, geophysical corrections, ground processing) and new versions of altimeter merged products such as the 2014 AVISO reprocessing or the Sea Level CCI data set. We also focus our work on sensitivity analyses of the method of comparison to various parameters. In particular, we determine to which extent the altimeter quality assessment is affected by a different pre-processing of altimeter data, a sub sampling of the Argo network and a change of the reference depth used to compute Argo dynamic heights.

Analysis of groundwater level historical data to detect climate change impact in France

J.F. Vernoux (BRGM, Orleans, France)

Abstract details
Analysis of groundwater level historical data to detect climate change impact in France

JF. Vernoux (1) ; JJ. Seguin (1)
(1) BRGM, Orleans, France

Abstract content

The level of groundwater bodies depends for many of them on the infiltration of meteoric water and will therefore be necessarily impacted by climate change if it causes a change in the infiltration system (intensity, period). To assess and monitor the impact of this change, a dedicated groundwater monitoring network is necessary. As this impact is currently unclear, the implementation of such a network involves an analysis of existing groundwater level data series.

The study was based on Mann-Kendall trend detection tests from groundwater level data and a comparison of trends between groundwater level data and climate data (precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration). Trend detection tests were carried out on 377 piezometers of the french national groundwater quantitative monitoring network for which we had a data series of at least 25 years. In the end, 70 have a significant trend, 44 down and 26 up. Piezometers showing significant trend mostly concern aquifers with predominant annual hydrologic cycle. But most of aquifers in France have longer hydrologic cycles and statistical tests are not relevant because the data are autocorrelated and we do not have at our disposal long  time series  which are required for such tests. A sketch of spatial structuring trends has been identified, with rising levels for chalk aquifer in the Artois-Picardie basin and the center of the Seine-Normandy Basin and lower levels for chalk and Jurassic limestones aquifers in eastern Seine Normandy basin. Trends upward or downward may in some cases be influenced by groundwater pumping without that one can be demonstrated. The break tests show that the behavior change corresponds to the years in which water levels are significantly higher or lower than average or to the years that precede or follow these events. Finally, a tool for lumped hydrological modelling (Gardenia) was used to test the sensitivity of the groundwater level variations to potential evapotranspiration (PET). The results show that these variations have a relatively small impact on the groundwater levels,  especially compared with model uncertainties.

In conclusion, this study shows that we cannot demonstrate a significant impact of climate change on groundwater levels because of too short time series but it reinforces the need to set up a monitoring network dedicated to the impact of climate change on groundwater. In order to set up that network, about 40 aquifers were selected with following creteria : unconfined aquifer, recharge likely to be impacted by climate change, large piezometric fluctuations, aquifer weakly impacted by withdrawals, aquifer to preserve for the future. To select piezometers for each aquifer, the main criteria was a low anthropogenic impact.

Assessing the potential impacts of climate change and reforestation on rainfall onset and cessation over West Africa

M. Mounkaila Saley (West African Climate Service Center for Climate Change and Adapted land Use (WASCAL), Ondo State, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Assessing the potential impacts of climate change and reforestation on rainfall onset and cessation over West Africa

M. Mounkaila Saley (1)
(1) West African Climate Service Center for Climate Change and Adapted land Use (WASCAL), Meteorology, Ondo State, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Moussa Mounkaila S. 1,2*, Babatunde J. Abiodun 1, and J. A. Omotosho 2

1 Climate Systems Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science,University of Cape Town, South Africa

2 West African Science Service Center for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) Graduate Research Program, Federal University of Technology Akure, Nigeria

*Corresponding author: moussamounk@gmail.com

This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change and reforestation on the rainfall onset and cessation over West Africa. It uses two observations (GPCP and TRMM) and two RCMs RegCM and WRF forced respectively with HadGEM and ECHAM for the present-day climate (1971-2004) and projected future climate (2031-2064) under rcp45 conditions. Four definitions (DEF1, DEF2, DEF3 and DEF4) of rainfall onset dates (ROD) and one of rainfall cessation dates (RCD) based on rainfall threshold are used in this study. The results show that both observations (GPCP and TRMM) produce similar results of ROD/RCD in each climatic zones of West Africa (respectively Guinea, Savanna and Sahel). HadGEM and ECHAM fail to simulate the spatial distribution of ROD/RCD and produce later/early ROD/RCD in all definitions as observed. However, RegCM and WRF perform better than their driven GCMs (HadGEM and ECHAM) in simulating the ROD/RCD over the region. The potential impacts of climate change due to elevated greenhouse gas (GHGs) show that the temperature would likely increase over West Africa in both RCMs and also in the GCMs (HadGEM and ECHAM) more consistently over the Sahel. On the other hand, elevated GHGs would lead to a decrease in rainfall as indicated by the RCMs and GCMs although the decrease is much more consistent again over the Sahel. As for the future ROD, increase in GHGs indicates that regardless of the definitions used, northern Nigeria would have delayed RODs. The vertical structure of the monsoon dynamics in the areas where the highest impacts of climate change (i.e. latest ROD) are observed for each definition shows that the elevated GHGs in the future under rcp45 condition would induce shallower monsoon flow essentially over the Sahel. However, there was no agreement between the RCMs (RegCM and WRF) on the potential impact of climate change on the RCDs due to elevated GHGs, for while RegCM indicates delayed RCDs over the Sahel and early RCDs over the Savanna, WRF produces early RCDs in all the areas. From both models, the projected impact of reforestation under the rcp45 condition indicates that West African climate would be cooler in most areas with more rainfall during the rainy season especially over the reforested zone. The cooling effect is more consistent and higher over Savanna but reforestation would induce a warming over some surrounding areas. Regardless of the definitions used, reforestation over Savanna area would induce early ROD over most areas in West Africa as obtained from both models, except over north of Nigeria. The potential impact of reforestation on the RCDs (under rcp45 conditions) again produces divergent results by the RCMs. While RegCM indicates delayed RCDs over the reforested area and early RCDs over Sahel, WRF produces delayed RCDs over all the climatic zones.

Keywords: Potential impact, Climate Change, Rainfall Onset and Cessation, Reforestation, West Africa

Attribution of Extreme Summers in Northern Europe

R. Sutton (NCAS-Climate, Reading, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Attribution of Extreme Summers in Northern Europe

R. Sutton (1) ; B. Dong (1) ; S. Len (1)
(1) NCAS-Climate, Department of meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The summer climate of northern Europe exhibits large variability from year to year and on longer timescales.  In extreme summers the region experiences heat waves, droughts, or floods.  This presentation will discuss the characteristics and drivers of variability in northern European summers with a particular focus on the summer of 2012, which was a record wet summer in northern Europe and was associated with widespread flooding, and the contrasting warm dry summer of 2013.  The wet summer of 2012 was not an isolated event but rather one in a cluster of wet summers that have occurred more frequently in the 21st century than in the last decades of the 20th century. Wet summers are associated with a southward position of the North Atlantic storm track and a negative phase of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation, with the opposite pattern for dry summers. The magnitude of decadal variability in these features suggests a role for forcing from outside the dynamical atmosphere. Climate model experiments have been carried out to identify the drivers of variability and to attribute the factors that influenced the summers of 2012 and 2013 in particular.  The results indicate that anthropogenic forcing, both through its direct impact, and through its impact on warming sea surface temperatures, has substantially increased the likelihood of hot summers in northern Europe.  Establishing the impact on the likelihood of wet or dry summers is more complex.  Evidence suggests that changes in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures were an important factor in explaining the striking contrast between the summers of 2012 and 2013. The implications of these findings for future summers in northern Europe will be discussed.

Avoided Sea Level Rise from thermal expansion for RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5

A. Hu (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America)

Abstract details
Avoided Sea Level Rise from thermal expansion for RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5

A. Hu (1) ; S. Bates, (1)
(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America

Abstract content

Observational evidence shows that as the global mean temperature increases, the global mean sea level is also rising. The rising sea level could impose significant impacts on coastal communities, especially when this rising sea is compounded with storm surges. Here, by analyzing results from two sets of ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1, we study the potential avoided sea level rise over the 21st century on global and regional scales if a climate pathway of RCP4.5 is followed versus RCP8.5. Results show that the global mean sea level rise averaged over 2061-2080 due thermal expansion of sea water can be reduced by about 25% (~3.7 cm). Regionally, this avoided sea level rise can be marginal in some areas, such Melbourne, Australia (14cm vs. 13cm), and can be very large in others, such as New York (35cm vs. 25cm) due to regional changes in dynamical forcing.

Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions

D. Swingedouw (Universite de Bordeaux, Pessac, France)

Abstract details
Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions

D. Swingedouw (1) ; P. Ortega (2) ; J. Mignot (3) ; E. Guilyardi (4) ; V. Masson-Delmotte (5) ; P. Butler (6) ; M. Khodri (3) ; R. Séférian (7)
(1) Universite de Bordeaux, UMR CNRS 5805 EPOC, Pessac, France; (2) University of Reading, Ncas climate, Reading, United Kingdom; (3) Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Locean, Paris, France; (4) LOCEAN/IPSL, UPMC case 100, Paris, France; (5) IPSL/LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (6) Unversity of Bangor, Bangor, United Kingdom; (7) Météo-France, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

Understanding the mechanisms driving Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) decadal variability is critical for climate predictability in the Northern Hemisphere. North Atlantic paleoclimate proxy records exhibit variance at the bidecadal scale but the drivers of this variability remain poorly understood. Here we show that the subset of CMIP5 historical simulations that produce such bidecadal variability exhibit a robust maximum in AMOC strength 15 years after the 1963 Agung eruption, followed by a second maximum in the 1990s, caused by the reset of a bidecadal cycle. The mechanisms at play involve salinity advection from lower latitudes and explain the timing of Great Salinity Anomalies observed in the North Atlantic in the 1970s and 1990s. Simulations as well as Greenland and Iceland paleoclimate records indicate that coherent bidecadal cycles were excited following five Agung-like volcanic eruptions during the last millennium. Over the last decades, climate simulations and a conceptual model reveal interference patterns associated with the timing of subsequent volcanic eruptions. Destructive interference caused by the Pinatubo 1991 eruption may have led to a stable AMOC in the 2000s. Our results imply a long-lasting impact of volcanic eruptions on AMOC, North Atlantic Ocean and climate, and potentially significant multi-decadal predictability following the next large volcanic eruption.

Change of vulnerability towards flooding in the commercial sector

H. Kreibich (German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Change of vulnerability towards flooding in the commercial sector

H. Kreibich (1)
(1) German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Flood risks emerge from extreme hydrological events and exposure of human activities. Various studies have analysed past flood damage data for trends and tried to attribute it to specific drivers. A large part of the observed upward trend in damage is assumed to be related to socio-economic factors. Whereas changes in exposure are relatively well understood, there is hardly any knowledge about changes in susceptibility, particularly in respect to companies, which are quite heterogeneous but contribute a large share of damage.

Therefore, vulnerability data from companies affected by recent floods in Germany were analysed to gain quantitative information about changes in susceptibility during the last decade and how these changes are linked to flood experience and other physical and social drivers.

Preliminary results reveal that in the case of a flood event, most companies undertake emergency measures. The effectiveness of these measures is increased by recent flood experience, emergency plans, reliable warnings with long lead times, and low water levels. Additionally, larger companies that own their buildings seem to be more efficient in undertaking emergency measures. Additionally, many companies undertake precautionary measures after a flood, but still much more could be done. Perhaps the diversity of responsibilities in businesses and the institutional structure create hurdles as well as the level of uncertainty regarding which actions are most cost-effective and will provide significant damage reduction.

Changes in extreme hydrological events in highly regulated river basins of Catalonia (NE Spain): discerning between climate change processes, land cover modifications and water resources management

S.M. Vicente-Serrano (Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Zaragoza, Spain)

Abstract details
Changes in extreme hydrological events in highly regulated river basins of Catalonia (NE Spain): discerning between climate change processes, land cover modifications and water resources management

SM. Vicente-Serrano (1) ; J. Zabalza-Martínez, (1) ; J. López-Moreno, (1) ; G. Borrás, (2) ; E. Pla, (3) ; D. Pascual, (3) ; N. Martín-Hernández, (1) ; C. Azorín-Molina, (1) ; A. Sanchez-Lorenzo (1) ; E. Morán-Tejeda, (1) ; R. Serrano, (3)
(1) Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Zaragoza, Spain; (2) Oficina Catalana de Canvi Climàtic, Barcelona, Spain; (3) CREAF, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

Extreme precipitation events trigger floods with devastating effects, causing several economic and environmental impacts, and even human causalities. To understand how extreme precipitation events propagate spatially to the river response is a high priority in the Mediterranean region, where heavy precipitation events are frequent, but they tend to occur randomly in space and time and our predictive capacity of these events is usually low. In recent decades, climate change processes have been identified in the Mediterranean region, affecting the magnitude of extreme precipitation events. Nevertheless, the evolution of extreme hydrological events may be different to that observed by precipitation extremes in past decades, given strong land cover changes and/or river regulation, water management practices and water uses.

To know the effect of the management of hydrological basins on the evolution of extreme hydrological events may help to adapt the society response to future climate change scenarios. In this study we analyse the evolution of extreme precipitation and hydrological events in the past five decades in three basins of Catalonia (NE Spain): Muga, Ter and Segre. These basins have their headwaters in the Catalan Pyrenees and they have been highly regulated by numerous dams in the second half of the twentieth century. Nevertheless, they are characterized by different water uses, land covers and management strategies and they include one of the main irrigated areas of Spain (the Segre basin), the Metropolitan Barcelona area in which there is large urban water demand (more than 4.5M people), and also high pressure tourism areas in the Mediterranean coastland.

Analyses have shown how the progressive increase of the natural vegetation coverage and mainly the increased river regulation enhance the missmatch between the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation and streamflow events. Nevertheless, very extreme high flow episodes have also been recorded in the three basins in the last decades, reinforcing the hypothesis that although damming and water management may control hydrological extreme events to some extent, the high flow risk will probably remain or even reinforce under climate change scenarios.

This study has been developed in the frame of the project: "LIFE12 ENV/ES/000536 Demonstration and validation of innovative methodology for regional climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean area (MEDACC)" financed by the LIFE Programme of the European Commission and focused on establishing adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the three analyzed basins.

Ciclania: Videogame for generating sustainable educational communities

B. Mauricio (Universidad Santo Tomás, Santiago, Chile)

Abstract details
Ciclania: Videogame for generating sustainable educational communities

B. Mauricio (1) ; J. Roa, (1) ; M. Mellado (1)
(1) Universidad Santo Tomás, Santiago, Chile

Abstract content

The challenges facing mankind today associated with the phenomenon global change put us in a scenario of crossroads, which will determine the conditions of our future together.

 

The increase in atmospheric temperature; biodiversity loss; changes in land use; problems of freshwater availability, ocean acidification; inequality and poverty are some of the effects of the phenomenon, widely studied by the scientific community and those who have sounded the alarm. (IPCC, 2013; Peters, 2011).

 

But this warning is not enough to change the countries and citizens behavior. During the last forty years we´ve learned that global change will not be solved solely by technological developments, but together with the creation of new citizens with transformed community living arrangements.

 

Thus, civic education on these matters becomes relevant in the transformation of sensitized responsible citizens. To achieve this transformation, the approach proposed by this work consists in civic education driven by the scientific education.

 

With this premise we develop Ciclania, a free game,build up from - and in accordance with-the science program for primary schools of the Ministry of Education of Chile. Ciclania includes 5 environments: beach, field, forest, industrial city, and Egopolis, the city of consumption. The player must explore the environment solving problems associated with global change. In addition to the game, we developed an interactive guide for teachers, which browses the game environments(without the need of playing the game) and experimental activities for the classroom, that will give teachers the knowledge and space to deepen the key concepts of global change.

The evaluation results, show that the use of Ciclania promotes learning and motivation in science through play and fun, but mainly promotes in children reasons why we need as a community a more harmonious relationship with the environment in order to battle the global change.

Climate Adventure: a strategy game to keep the greenhouse effect in balance

M. Prado (Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract details
Climate Adventure: a strategy game to keep the greenhouse effect in balance

M. Prado (1) ; C. Josiel (1) ; J. Sousa, (1)
(1) Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract content

This abstract describes the design and the development of Climate Adventure: A Game of Balance and Strategy©, a pedagogical tool created by a team of doctoral students in the Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policy program offered by the University of Lisbon. Recognizing that most people find the subject of climate change to be abstract and distant from their daily lives (according to literature findings), the team focused its efforts on answering the question: how can we make tangible the subject of climate change in an ethical way? The first step of the project was to identify a tool that could help people gain awareness. For that purpose, the team used creativity techniques. Our chosen vehicle was a game, one that would be fun to play, use movements, provide information, and operate with a minimum of strategy. These criteria were the basis for the next step: design the model and build the narrative of the game. The model is a card game played between teams with questions and answers, fulfilling steps to get to an end. The narrative is based on two arguments: scientific and ethical. The scientific argument considers the atmosphere, the greenhouse effect, and concentrations of greenhouse gases. The ethical argument considers human rights, distributive justice, and climate ethics. The development of the Climate Adventure© game required three more steps. The second step was to test the game using the technique of improvement by peers from the design thinking methodology. In November 2014 we invited doctoral colleagues to play the game, and three of them acted as direct observers with the responsibility of responding to a set of questions. The authors incorporated the direct observers' responses into the model and narrative of the game. The third step was to identify competing games in the marketplace and to analyze the products and how they were marketed. Our research identified games for children and adults, most of them strongly focused on cognition and competition. Our fourth step was to conduct an online survey among students of two classes at the doctoral program: the class that had participated in the game testing and another class that was completely unfamiliar with the game. The objective of the survey was to gauge people's perception of the game's attractiveness, color, name, and potential for learning and distribution. The authors have already registered the game at the Portugal government office Inspecção-Geral das Atividades Culturais – IGAC (General Inspection of Cultural Activities), which gives them a copyright on the game. Climate Adventure© is aimed at the general public (age 14 and up), and it is a parlor game whose aim is to keep the carbon dioxide (CO₂) in balance in the atmosphere so that weather conditions continue to favor life on Earth as we know it today. The two teams each begin the Adventure with an equal amount of CO₂ molecules; as they interact, they should finish the game with the same amount they had at the beginning, accepting a difference of +1 or -1. Throughout the game, the teams move from one space to the next by answering questions as they walk from the entrance to the exit gate of the atmosphere. During the game, the teams are able to use sources and sinks of carbon to keep their players in balance but they cannot exchange carbon with each other. The team that crosses the exit gate with their CO₂ in balance wins the game. The plan for the future is to promote Climate Adventure© as a capacity-building tool for employees at companies that have adopted social responsibility policies, and for public officials at municipalities that have adopted and are implementing climate-change adaptation/mitigation policies. It is the authors' conviction that when the general public can experience climate change as a tangible threat, they will be more active in seeking solutions to the social, political, and economic problems created when the earth's average surface temperature increases by +2°C or +4°C over the current 15°C. Therefore, the goal of Climate Adventure© is to give climate change tangibility. The references used: AR 5 WG I, II, and III and Synthesis Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014; books and articles by the Portuguese physicist and professor Filipe D. Santos; and concepts and fundamentals of communication theory and learning theory. 

Climate change and Health- Training Resources for capacity building

V. Kendrovski (World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, Bonn, Germany)

Abstract details
Climate change and Health- Training Resources for capacity building

V. Kendrovski (1) ; B. Menne (2) ; S. Gerardo (3) ; J. Creswick (4) ; T. Wolf (4)
(1) World Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, European Centre for Environment and Health, Bonn, Germany; (2) WHO, health security and the environment, Bonn, Germany; (3) WHO, Bonn, Germany; (4) WHO, Cgs, Bonn, Germany

Abstract content

As climate change and its respective health effects are being observed across Europe, it is being suggested that development and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect human health should be accelerated and strengthened. Health adaptation to climate change involves knowledge and skills in a range of professions and across various sectors – not only technical but also skills involving personal interactions. A systematic training approach has been missing for many years. The available information is now presented in a structured modular collection in order to make these valuable resources accessible and to fill identified gaps in knowledge and capacity development. The WHO Regional Office for Europe has developed a collection of training resources for capacity building on climate change and health. The overall aim is to support the development of climate change and health strategies and action plans by providing scientific, technical, methodological and practical background information and training to member states. Thus, the training resources offer the opportunity to raise awareness among professionals with regard to observed and projected climate change in Europe, and related health effects, and to support health adaptation policy development and implementation in an intersectoral setting. The training resources (manual + suggested training materials) contain a structured compilation of existing and new training materials according to defined cascades of learning objectives. The three modular thematic blocks cover the basics of climate change and associated health effects – one presents a framework for the development of adaptation strategies and programmes of action – and draw attention to co-benefits of health of climate change mitigation measures in the health sector and in other sectors. Use of a range of training methods creates an interactive and participatory learning environment. These are intended to enable WHO European Member States to respond to and anticipate capacity building needs for climate change and health.  Training resources can assist health policy-makers, planners and practitioners in the process of harnessing the potential of adaptation to climate change in order to meet health goals and targets. TBD

 

 

Climate Change and water resources in the Maghreb

B. Laignel (University of Rouen, Mont Saint Aignan, France)

Abstract details
Climate Change and water resources in the Maghreb

B. Laignel (1) ; Z. Nouaceur (2) ; I. Turki (1)
(1) University of Rouen, UMR 6143 M2C, Mont Saint Aignan, France; (2) University of Rouen, Umr 6143 idees, Mont Saint Aignan, France

Abstract content

The Mediterranean area, known as hot spot area of Climate Change by IPCC, is expected to increase mean annual temperatures between +2,2°C and +5,1 °C, a decrease mean annual rainfall between -5 and -35 % and an increased of extreme events, in 2100. The combination of Climate Change and human impact could lead to water shortage for 290 million people (Plan Bleu of United Nations), particularly in North Africa.

The aim of this work is to provide an overview of the climate change and its effects on the water resources, at the Maghreb scale for the temperature and rain evolutions (30 synoptic stations located in the North and center of the 3 countries of the Maghreb, from 1970 to 2013) and 5 watersheds for the water resource (Soummam and Khébir Rhumel in Algeria, Tensift and Sebou in Morocco, Cap Bon en Tunisie). This study is performed in the framework of the 2 AUF and PHC Maghreb projects on the evolution of the water resource in Maghreb.

At the Maghreb scale and the studied watersheds, we observe an increase of minimum and maximum annual temperatures from the 80s. We observe 3 periods on the rainfall time series: a humid phase before the 80s, then several years of drought from 80s to the early 2000s, then a return of more humid phase with more of storm events.

However, it is difficult to dinstinguish and quatify the respective roles of the climate change and anthropogenic impact on the evolution of the water resources. The combined effects of these two factors led to a decline of the quantity and deterioration of the quality of water resources. Indeed, the groundwater, the main drinking water resource in the Maghreb, show a strong decrease, which can reach -50 cm to -1 m per year, and a deterioration of the water quality by infiltration of the anthropogenic pollutants from surface water (rivers) and by a water salinization in the coastal aquifer (related to the seawater intrusion), such as the examples of the Haouz and Sais aquifers in Morocco (Marrakech and Fès regions) and Cap Bon aquifer (North of Tunisia).

Nevertheless, a study of the hydrological variability carried out on 2 watersheds (Soummam and Tensift), by wavelet analysis, showed similar energy bands or variability modes (1, 2-3, 5-7, 15 years) in rainfall, streamflow and aquifer piezometry: 1, 2–3, 5–7 and 8-15 years. Moreover, 3 major temporal discontinuities are observed around 1970-1975, 1980-1985, 1990-1995 in all times series. The 1970-1975 and 1990-1995 discontinuities were also found in other hydrosystems on both sides of the of the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, in various climatic and geomorphological contexts (USA, NW Europe, N Africa), in different hydrological compartments (surface and groundwater) and at various spatial scales (watersheds smaller than 1000 km2 and large rivers): the Seine watershed (streamflow and aquifer piezometry) and small high-Norman watersheds, Mississippi, Colorado and Texas small watersheds. Therefore, these discontinuities can be described as global disruptions. In addition, they are also present in climate indices NAO and SOI and can therefore be described as climatic discontinuities at the global scale. There is no satisfactory explanation of the phenomenon causing these discontinuities, although the first discontinuity coincides with the second phase of global warming (which also began in the early 1970s) and the second coincides with an apparent intensification of warming. However, the link between these phenomena is not yet established.

Climate Change Engineering: An emerging pathway to address Climate Change Challenges

A. Batisha (Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt)

Abstract details
Climate Change Engineering: An emerging pathway to address Climate Change Challenges

A. Batisha (1)
(1) Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract content

To survive in the future, the professional engineers should be qualified to deal with different and diverse subjects of climate change challenges. The focus of this work is to bridge the gap between the academia and the professional practice in the field of Climate Change CC. So, the professional engineers should have an adequate knowledge about wide and different Climate change engineering CCE disciplines. The focus of CCE is to promote Sustainability and optimally responding to CC challenges. CCE may be defined as the application of mathematical, scientific, environmental, and technical knowledge to invent, design, build, maintain, and improve structures, products, machines, devices, systems, materials and processes for the purpose of sustaining both the global and local properties of the Earth and its habitability. The paper focuses on the purpose, activities; and issues of CCE. The role of Climate change engineer has been addressed. The main finding of this article is to highlight CCE with invaluable insights into multidisciplinary engineering that help improve current operations and shape future strategies in the Era of Climate Change. The resultant conclusion is that the role CC plays in the success or failure of development efforts must be considered by applying CCE principles.

Climate change impacts on Nef Glacier and repercussions on the hydrological regime of Nef River (Patagonia, Chile)

P. Lopez (CNRS, University Rennes 1, Geosciences Rennes, Rennes, France)

Abstract details
Climate change impacts on Nef Glacier and repercussions on the hydrological regime of Nef River (Patagonia, Chile)

P. Lopez (1) ; B. Pouyaud, (2) ; P. Chevallier, (2) ; G. Casassa, (3) ; F. Espinoza, (4) ; J. Salas, (5) ; P. Nahuelcar, (5) ; J. O'kuinghttons, (5) ; L. Longuevergne (6)
(1) CNRS, University Rennes 1, Geosciences Rennes, Rennes, France; (2) Laboratoire Hydrosciences UMR 5569 (CNRS, IRD, Université de Montpellier), Montpellier, France; (3) Geoestudios Ltda and Universidad de Magallanes, Santiago and Punta Arenas, Chile; (4) Independent consultant, Coyhaique, Chile; (5) Dirección General de Aguas, Coyhaique, Chile; (6) CNRS, University Rennes 1, Geosciences rennes, Rennes, France

Abstract content

The Nef River, with its origin in the Nef Glacier, located on the Northern Patagonia Icefield (Chile), drains a glacierized basin of 800 km². In this study, fluctuations between 2005 and 2010 in the discharge of Nef River measured close to the Nef Glacier’s front, were analyzed. Throughout the whole data series, the discharge follows a seasonal fluctuation with a mean discharge of 27.1 m3/s and 78.3 m3/s for the fall/winter and spring/summer season, respectively. During autumn, spring, and summer, several floods are related in terms of temperature peaks. The highest flood of the whole period (189 m3/s) was observed on 11 March 2009 and occurred as a result of a significant increased of the air temperature (from –0.9°C to +12.5°C) appeared during the 5 previous days to the flood triggering increase of glacier melting.

In order to quantify the Nef Glacier’s melting (in function to the air temperature) during spring and summer seasons, a simplified degree-day method was applied for the 2007-2008 hydrological year (which is the only period without gaps on the data series). The glacier melt water contributed for 30% to the total discharge; meanwhile precipitation represents only a 7.2%.

In addition, we found that Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) events occurred at Nef Norte Lake (a small proglacial lake originated on a lateral front of Nef Glacier) can contribute significantly to the total discharge of Nef River. Indeed, the surface area of the lake was monitored using SPOT 5 satellite images and DEMs. By 23th March 2008, the lake lost at least 25% of the surface measured in 13th March and the water level of the lake was 33.6 m lower (equivalent to 6*106 m3). This amount is therefore coherent with the increase of discharge of 25.5 m3/s recorded between 15th and 20st March 2008. In consequence, we suggest that a GLOF event was responsible of the 4th highest flood (156.8 m3/s) of the 2005 - 2010 period.

GLOF events, which increased their frequency in Patagonia during the last decade, are the clear evidence of constant glacier thinning as response to climate change. The ablation area of Nef Glacier thinned 1.8 m between 2001 and 2011.

These results confirm that a hydrological approach applied to the glacial runoffs can correctly estimate glacier melting coming from ablation area, which is largely unknown at basin scale in the Northern Patagonia Icefield.

 

 

Climate change induced temporal variability of droughts in Ukraine – the role of North Atlantic Oscillation

V. Khokhlov (Odessa State Environmental University, Odessa, Ukraine)

Abstract details
Climate change induced temporal variability of droughts in Ukraine – the role of North Atlantic Oscillation

V. Khokhlov (1) ; N. Yermolenko (1)
(1) Odessa State Environmental University, Hydrometeorological Institute, Odessa, Ukraine

Abstract content

We used the multiscalar drought index – standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index – to investigate spatiotemporal droughts variability caused by the climate change. The index was calculated using the 0.5 degree grid data on the temperature and precipitation for Ukraine. The two periods with different trends of global temperature – 1951-1980 and 1981-2010 – were used to reveal a climate change impact.

The analysis revealed the periods with moistest and driest conditions. The moistest years were registered in the end of 1970s – start of 1980s. Moreover, both the number and intensity of droughts increase significantly since 1980, especially for the Southern Ukraine. During the 2006-2009, the most extreme and long drought was observed in the Odessa region. The analysis also showed that hydrological droughts begin with some delay from the meteorological ones, and have maximal duration.

We used CUSUM method in order to detect specific years, when the significant change points occurred in the time series of droughts. This method also detected the start of 1980s as the years of transition from the moist to the dry conditions.

The cross-wavelet transform was applied to reveal a connection between the droughts in Ukraine and teleconnection patterns in the North Atlantics. The analysis showed that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a maximal effect on the droughts in Ukraine. The anti-phase relation is registered for the joint fluctuations with the periods 2-3 years and is most prominent in the Southern Ukraine. On the contrary, the NAO has a small impact on the Northern Ukraine. This fact can be explained by the orientation of main storm tracks for positive and negative phases of the NAO.

Climate change revealed from mass balance of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets – GLACIOCLIM, the French Glaciers Observatory

C. Vincent (LGGE - CNRS/UJF, Saint-Martin d'Hères Cedex, France)

Abstract details
Climate change revealed from mass balance of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets – GLACIOCLIM, the French Glaciers Observatory

C. Vincent (1) ; D. Six (2) ; A. Rabatel (3) ; V. Favier (2) ; P. Wagnon (4)
(1) LGGE - CNRS/UJF, Saint-Martin d'Heres , France; (2) LGGE - CNRS/UJF, Saint-Martin d'Hères, France; (3) UJF, Lgge, Grenoble, France; (4) LTHE - IRD, Saint Martin d'Heres , France

Abstract content

Mountain glaciers are widely recognized as excellent indicators of climate change over recent centuries (e.g. IPCC, 2013). Glacier mass balance variations are a useful tool to assess climate changes over the 20th and 21th centuries and anticipate future challenges related to water resources and sea level rise.

A multi-level monitoring combining in-situ and remotely-sensed measurements within different climate regions constitutes the strategy recommended by the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G) supported by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). It should provide the basic data sets required for integrative studies and assessments of the distribution and changes of glaciers and ice caps.

In this context, the French national observatory of glaciers “GLACIOCLIM”, supported by INSU, IRD, IPEV and University of Grenoble in collaboration with local partners, has been developing such a strategy for several decades on glaciers in the French Alps, the tropical Andes, the Antarctic and the Himalayas. The policy supported by GLACIOCLIM in terms of data sharing relies on: (1) free access through an interactive database which has been recently redesigned; (2) a contribution to the World Glacier Monitoring Service database, sustained by a MoU; and (3) a contribution to the GLIMS initiative for multi-temporal glacier inventories. Our monitoring strategy is based on a comprehensive, consistent set of data, including glaciological measurements (mass balance, ice velocity, length and thickness variations), along with hydrological and meteorological measurements. Contrary to the length variations which result from complex ice flow dynamics, mass balance fluctuations are direct indicators as they record solid precipitation via accumulation and surface energy fluxes via ablation. Given that most mountainous glaciers are temperate (i.e. close to the pressure melting point), the excess energy flux at the glacier surface during the ablation season serves mainly for melting. Consequently, it is necessary to measure both winter and summer mass balance terms over long periods to investigate long-term climate trends. The full network then provides the opportunity to thoroughly analyze the relationships between surface mass balance and meteorological variables on selected glaciers in the world.

Most of the glaciers in the world have been decreasing over the last decades and ice temperature measurements in boreholes at very high altitudes provide a clear evidence of atmospheric warming. The goal of this presentation is to analyze the climate - glacier relationships and to provide the cause of this decrease in selected mountainous regions (Alps, Himalayas and Andes) based on in-situ measurements, remote sensing data and results from simple to complex models. The surprising paradox of East Antarctica, where surface mass balance changes are still limited will also be justified in view of data from the GLACIOCLIM observatory.

Climate change signals in Kenyan Rift valley lakes

E. Koech (University of Nairobi, nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Climate change signals in Kenyan Rift valley lakes

E. Koech (1) ; L. Ogallo (2)
(1) University of Nairobi, Meteorology, nairobi, Kenya; (2) University of Nairobi and IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

Climate over Kenya is largely Arid and Semi-Arid, making drought the most common hazard. Floods and many other local hazards occur with most of them being location specific. These climate extremes often have far-reaching impacts on various life-supporting and economic sectors including agriculture, tourism, food security, health, livestock, water resources, settlement, infrastructure, and environmental resources, among others. Climate change leads to increased frequency of droughts and other climate extremes with devastating impacts on livelihoods in many developing countries including Kenya. Thus, no country can have sustainable livelihoods and development without an effective disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policies. Such policies require good knowledge of the past, present and future climate at specific locations that are often missing in many developing countries.

This paper presents the space-time patterns of climate extremes in the Rift Valley parts of Kenya in order to delineate the evidence of changing climate. This is evident in the changes in the Kenyan Rift Valley lake levels. These lakes include Lakes Naivasha, Magadi, Elementaita, Nakuru, Baringo and Bogoria. Rainfall data from nearby stations were used to present past and present patterns of climate trends and the associated extremes. The lake level changes were used with an assumption that lake water inflow, outflow, evaporation, water uses, among other relevant factors remain constant. The results show fluctuating lake levels for specific periods corresponding to changes in precipitation trends. From September 2013 to date, there has been a significant lake level rise that has expanded the lakes' extents for several kilometres and even submerging nearby hotels and schools. Finally, this study simulates future climate change scenarios in the Rift Valley in 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100 that are critical for all future planning over the region.

 

Climate Variability in Nepal: A Time Series Approach

R.B. Bista (Patan Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, Nepal)

Abstract details
Climate Variability in Nepal: A Time Series Approach

RB. Bista (1)
(1) Patan Multiple Campus, Tribhuvan University, Economics, Lalitpur, Nepal

Abstract content

Climate variability in Nepal has become a big environmental issue. This paper investigates empirically and analytically whether climate variability exists or not in different altitude, whether its direction moves and what will be its future direction. We use time series model based on the secondary data of hydrology and metrology collected from Department of Hydrology and Metrology, the Government of Nepal.  

 

The time series analysis finds climate variability in the different parts of Nepal in which all months have variability of temperature and rainfall precipitation. From 1975 to 2010, temperature raises annually by 20 C. However, rainfall is found declining. It is forecasted change of temperature by 60c over next 40 years.  In case of rainfall, it is forecasted constant and results drought in high altitude and flood in low altitude. Climate variability may be a big threat in the different parts of Nepal. 

Climatic information from unexplored areas of East Antarctica: The French ITASE Contribution

V. Favier (LGGE, Grenoble, France)

Abstract details
Climatic information from unexplored areas of East Antarctica: The French ITASE Contribution

V. Favier (1) ; L. Arnaud (1) ; G. Delaygue (1) ; M. Fily (1) ; H. Gallée (1) ; C. Genthon (1) ; B. Jourdain (1) ; G. Krinner (1) ; A. Landais (2) ; M. Legrand (1) ; ME. Le (1) ; O. Magand (1) ; V. Masson-Delmotte (2) ; B. Minster (2) ; G. Picard (1) ; S. Preunkert (1) ; F. Prié (2) ; F. Remy (3) ; J. Savarino (1)
(1) LGGE, Grenoble, France; (2) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) LEGOS, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

Antarctica is the largest ice reservoir on Earth. In the context of climate change, the surface mass balance (SMB) of Antarctica will play a major role in the evolution of sea level. Knowledge of the current variations of Antarctic SMB is thus a major challenge. However, for Antarctica the spatially averaged SMB is still poorly constrained because field data are sparse. The IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) has highlighted this uncertainty as one of the main scientific challenges in climate science.

How the surface mass balance of Antarctica will change in the future?

In spite of decades of studies, an international effort is still necessary to reduce the important remaining uncertainties. Especially, large regions of Antarctica are still unexplored. Hence, scientific traverses have been designed in the framework of SCAR-ITASE program (International Trans-Antarctic Scientific Expeditions) to collect invaluable samples and observations in the field. In the context of ITASE project, the French glaciology community has launched a program to get new information on surface mass balance. During the 2009-10, 2011-2012 and 2013-14 summers, scientific traverses have been performed over large distances on the Antarctic plateau. However, the coast-to-plateau transition zone has been largely unexplored, whereas this is where most of future changes are expected to occur.  Hence, a new traverse is planned in this area for the summer 2016-17.  Using up-to-date techniques, we propose to collect information on snow physical properties to analyze the processes responsible for their spatial and temporal variations. A special attention will be paid on the way to use remote sensing data to infer the physical characteristics of snow. This knowledge is expected to allow us to interpret remote sensing signal in terms of surface mass balance. Getting information on how the origin and transport of moisture affect chemical and isotopic signals stored in firn and ice will also be a priority. This knowledge will help us to validate climate and surface mass balance models, which are used to forecast future surface mass balance. The goal of this presentation is to describe recent results obtained by the French ITASE community, and to describe its strategy for future research performed in Antarctica.

Comparaison de méthodes de réduction d'échelle pour des moyennes et des extremes de précipitations au Sénégal

M.A. Sarr (Centre de Suivi Écologique, Dakar, Senegal)

Abstract details
Comparaison de méthodes de réduction d'échelle pour des moyennes et des extremes de précipitations au Sénégal

MA. Sarr (1) ; O. Seidou (2) ; Y. Tramblay (3) ; S. El Adlouni (4)
(1) Centre de Suivi Écologique, Dakar, Senegal; (2) University of Ottawa, Civil engineering, Ottawa, Canada; (3) IRD - HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France; (4) Université de Moncton, Département de mathématiques et de statistique, Moncton, Canada

Abstract content

Au Sénégal, les chutes de pluie au cours de ces dernières années provoquent régulièrement des dégâts importants dans divers secteurs. Ainsi, il est donc important de comprendre l’évolution future des régimes de précipitations extrêmes pour fournir des outils à la prise de décisions.

Deux techniques différentes de réduction d'échelle ont été appliquées aux sorties de quatre (4) Modèles Climatiques Régionaux (MCR) à six (6) stations sélectionnées au Sénégal. La première technique de réduction d'échelle est la méthode Delta-Change. Elle est appliquée sur la moyenne annuelle des précipitations ainsi qu’aux périodes de retour calculées sur 5, 10, 20, 50 et 100 ans sur la base des précipitations quotidiennes. La seconde technique utilise la méthode de transformation Quantile-quantile qui permet de modifier les distributions mensuelles de précipitations simulées du MRC et ensuite calculer les périodes de retour de 5, 10, 20, 50 et 100 ans des précipitations journalières. Tous les événements de précipitations extrêmes sont calculés par l'ajustement de la distribution de GEV. Un test de Kolmogorov-Smirnoff est utilisé pour évaluer la performance de la transformation de Quantile-quantile ainsi que l'ajustement de la distribution de GEV pour les précipitations quotidiennes maximales.

Les résultats montrent que les deux méthodes, appliquées aux sorties du même modèle climatique, sont généralement homogènes sur la direction du changement. En revanche, elles conduisent à de différentes projections dans la direction et dans l'intensité du changement des précipitations extrêmes. Les changements projetés dans les précipitations moyennes sont à la baisse, excepté pour un MRC sur une station. Les changements projetés dans les précipitations extrêmes ne sont pas uniformes ni à toutes stations, ni à toutes les périodes de retour. Les résultats suggèrent également que le choix de la méthode de réduction d’échelle a plus d'effet sur l'estimation des précipitations quotidiennes extrêmes des périodes de retour égales ou supérieures à dix ans que le choix du modèle climatique.

Contribution of soil initial conditions for the occurrence of the 2003 and 2010 heat waves

O. Bellprat (IC3, Barcelona, France)

Abstract details
Contribution of soil initial conditions for the occurrence of the 2003 and 2010 heat waves

C. Prodhomme (1) ; O. Bellprat (2) ; F. Doblas-Reyes (1)
(1) IC3, Barcelona, Spain; (2) IC3, Climate Forecasting Unit, Barcelona, France

Abstract content

Dry soil moisture condition before both 2003 and 2010 heat wave over western Europe and Russia, respectively have been suggested to play an essential role on the occurrence of the event. In order estimated the impact of soil initial conditions on those two heat waves, we run two sets of seasonal hindcasts with the general circulation model EC-Earth2.3. The initialization of those hindcasts is done either using climatological or realistic land surface initialization in May, June, July and August using the ERA-Land re-analysis. Results show that the 2003 heat wave is predictable either with climatological or realistic land-surface initial condition and for all considered start dates. This feature clearly shows that the 2003 heat waves was predictable. Conversely, the 2010 heat wave is reproduced in May only if the land is realistically initialized, while in June the event is not predicted by none of the hindcasts. The present study will investigate the processes behind the occurrence of the two heat waves.

Critical erosion rates in mountain catchments during catastrophic events El Niño: from the west central Andes to the Pacific Ocean (Peru)

S.B. Morera Julca (Institute Geophysical of Peru, Lima, Peru)

Abstract details
Critical erosion rates in mountain catchments during catastrophic events El Niño: from the west central Andes to the Pacific Ocean (Peru)

SB. Morera Julca (1) ; A. Crave, (2) ; JL. Guyot (3) ; A. Desiderio, (4) ; O. Grover, (5) ; S. Vilcabana, (6) ; C. Gálvez, (7) ; T. Condom (8)
(1) Institute Geophysical of Peru, Climate, lima, Peru; (2) Geosciences Rennes, Osur, cnrs, Rennes, France; (3) Institut de recherche pour le développement, Hydrology research, Lima, Peru; (4) Proyecto especial binacional Puyango-Tumbes, Hydrology, Tumbes, Peru; (5) Proyecto especial Chira-Piura, Hydrology, Piura, Peru; (6) Proyecto especial Zaña-Jequetepeque, Hydrology, Cajamarca, Peru; (7) Proyecto especial Chavimochic, Hydrology, Trujillo, Peru; (8) IRD, Lthe, Grenoble, France

Abstract content

Erosion rates and sediment flux from the Andes to the coast of Peru, is largely unknown. The aims of this study is to bridging the knowledge gap by quantifying and understanding the magnitude and signal frequency of sediment fluxes from the west central Andes mountains to the Pacific coast. A new extensive suspended sediment yield (SSY) database from short to long-term erosion was collected (1948-2012). Measurements were taken at piedmont stations of twenty sub-catchments (638-16949 km2) located between 2°S to 18°S. Statistical analysis of suspended sediment fluxes (SSF) time series at daily and sub-daily frequency revealed that, Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) response immediately to runoff during water discharge peaks. However, annual correlation coefficient (R) between runoff and SSF along the Peruvian coast show a wide range from 0 to 0.9 (p < 0.05). Results also show strong latitudinal and longitudinal runoff gradient ranges from 2.4 to 25.5 l.km-2.year-1 and a wide SSY range from 9 to 2 000 t.km-2.year-1. SSY in Peru increased dramatically during extreme events El Niño (1982-83 and 1997-98) from 10 to 60 times in comparison with historical mean SSY. Finally, extreme events El Niño control SSY in the north of Peru (from 2°S to 9°S). Meanwhile, factors which control SSY during normal years are not fully understood, further studies on this topic are conducted.

Current status and stratigies of biodiversity data integration in Taiwan

K.-T. Shao (Biodiversity Research Center, Taipei, France)

Abstract details
Current status and stratigies of biodiversity data integration in Taiwan

KT. Shao (1)
(1) Biodiversity Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, France

Abstract content

The integration of Taiwan's biodiversity databases started in 2001, the same year that the Ministry of Science & Technology launched the National Digital Archives Program, the Executive Yuan began the Biodiversity Promotion Plan, and Taiwan joined GBIF as an Associate Participant. Taiwan, hence, embarked on a decade of integrating biodiversity data. Afterward, the “Catalog of Life in Taiwan” (TaiCOL) [57,000+ native species], “Taiwan’s node of GBIF” (TaiBIF) [2.8 M+ georeferenced distributional data], the “Cryobanking and Barcode of Life for Wildlife Genetic Material in Taiwan” (TaiBOL) [3,000 species with 12,000 barcode] and “Taiwan Encyclopedia of Life” (TaiEOL) [18,000+ species pages] are established, integrated and open to public access. The databases aim to promote the collection and integration of national biodiversity data and should be useful for future climate change researches. These databases intimately collaborate with their corresponding global databases of COL, GBIF, BOL and EOL, respectively. Raw data, especially those of ecological distribution generated by different government agencies or NGOs, are nevertheless still dispersed due to assorted reasons. Most people agree that it is imperative to integrate databases, but many researchers are unwilling to invest in database building — a kind of academic services — under the current academic evaluation system. Thus a cross-agency committee of GBIF / Chinese, Taipei was established in Academia Sinica in 2008 to formulate policies on data collection and integration, and the mechanism to make data available to the public. Any commissioned project was hereafter asked to include these policy requirements in the contract. Furthermore, a new project to build the “National Biodiversity Monitoring and Reporting System” (TaiBON) will be initiated soon which will integrate all the long-term biodiversity monitoring and bioindicator data from various agencies in Taiwan as well as collaborate with AP-BON and GEO BON.

 

Developing adaptation strategies to face the impact of climate change on the freshwater resources of India

S.N. Krishnapillai (Nansen Environmental Research Centre ( India), Kochi, Kerala, India)

Abstract details
Developing adaptation strategies to face the impact of climate change on the freshwater resources of India

SN. Krishnapillai (1)
(1) Nansen Environmental Research Centre ( India), Kochi, Kerala, India

Abstract content

Major challenge associated with the management of freshwater resources in India is the abnormalities and uncertainties in climate. With changing climate, increasing water demands in the domestic, agricultural and industrial sectors, and fast deterioration of the water resources, India is heading towards a water crisis. Life of millions living in climate sensitive river basins and wetlands make India one among the countries highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Drylands are potentially threatened by desertification. Indian economy and life of the majority has been traditionally linked to agriculture, the largest consumer of water. Abnormalities in rainfall seriously affect water availability and agricultural production. Extreme hydrological conditions affect hydropower generation and industrial development. Increasing rainfall seasonality in certain parts reduces groundwater recharge and summer water availability. Changes in the intensity, frequency and tracks of storms increasingly salinate coastal aquifers. In the Western Ghats Mountain area, increasing intensity of rainfall results in erosion and sedimentation, reducing reservoir capacity and summer flow in rivers. Retreat of Himalayan glaciers is likely to have large impact on water resources in entire north India. Water related health issues are worsening. Vector-borne and water-borne diseases extend into new areas. Even the heavy rainfall zones face serious water shortage as a result of drawbacks in water conservation and management. Most of the surface and groundwater resources are highly contaminated. Falling availability of reliable water leads to socio-economic issues such as water disputes, migration, pricing of water that is unaffordable to millions and large investments for the adaptation and mitigation. Present economic growth is likely to be haltered.  India’s preparedness for the effects of climate change is poor and India was too late to develop a climate policy. National polices including are only guidelines and they lack information on the effective implementation. Though several initiatives have been started in the water sector as part of adaptation such as cleaning of major rivers, protection of wetlands, groundwater recharge and introduction of water efficient technologies in agriculture and industries, the progress is slow because of issues like lack of coordination of departments, weak and corrupt administrative mechanism, social issues and vested political interests. Vulnerable groups are often neglected in decision making and policy development. Projects lack transparency and accountability. India urgently needs appropriate policies and strategies and an efficient implementation mechanism to face the challenges in water sector. A mix of traditional, environment-friendly methods and modern technologies in water conservation and quality improvement could perform better. This paper assesses the impact of climate change on water resources of India and its reflections on different sectors. Changes in water availability in two decades from now under an altered climate have been estimated using hydrological model, based on the projections of climate models. Existing policies and adaptation strategies have been critically reviewed to suggest guidelines for adaptation and mitigation measures in the water sector to face the impending water crisis. 

Does the public policy for influencing pro-environmental behaviour in the developed countries take into account people's common future under climate change?

L. I. Udrea (Keele University, Staffordshire, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Does the public policy for influencing pro-environmental behaviour in the developed countries take into account people's common future under climate change?

LI. Udrea (1)
(1) Keele University, School of Politics, International Relations and Environment, Staffordshire, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Public policy in the richest countries regarding environmental protection is currently based on ‘monetising’ nature – regarding it as a form of capital. The UK government tries to tackle climate change using a multitude of approaches however; the most effective ones to influence pro-environmental behaviour in the long term are yet to be found.

In this paper, I will discuss the approaches followed by the UK government to influence people adopt a pro-environmental behaviour pursuing them to change their unsustainable lifestyle using financial incentives, nudging and population segmentation. These approaches give people strong reasons to take the ‘right’ actions in the short term; however, when the incentives are stopped, they need to find by themselves the motivation to act pro-environmentally. As a result, I state that the UK government does not set a straightforward connection between people’s common future under climate change and the duty to protect the natural world.

In the UK context, individuals are not informed, but incentivised to act pro-environmentally via a series of price signals or nudges that encourage them to change their behaviour. I argue for the need to offer constructive feedback as a response to people’s harmful behaviour and facilitate the necessary contexts to become aware of unsustainable daily actions.

Moreover, I state that environmental ethics are not often mentioned in the debate about influencing human action for climate change mitigation; even though morality is for the majority of us, a behaviour regulator that can motivate us to take the ‘right’ actions. Whatever the reason, there is not a lot of interest to bring to attention the interdependent relationship between human beings and the environment. Thus, many pro-environmental projects are implemented without having the discussion about what people’s duties and responsibilities towards the environment are.

If people do not understand and assume the change they need to make, they will not acquire environmental attitudes to motivate them to act pro-environmentally in the long term. They will continue to act unsustainably whenever they are not guided by different governmental strategies or do not receive any financial incentive to take a pro-environmental action.

As a consequence, I propose a methodological innovation that explores an alternative form of motivation for pro-environmental behaviour: moral motivation. I am interested to test the capacity of morality to be skill knowledge. If we think of morality as a skill that can be trained and learnt, then we will have a starting framework for moral education. To that end I will develop the notion of a ‘shared morality’, or a form of considered ‘common sense’, which has the potential to inform and motivate individuals morally, irrespective of any particular normative theory they happen to have and, hence, to maximise the impact needed for environmental protection.

Correspondingly, by cultivating a sense of moral responsibility towards nature we might find an efficient way to address two current problems that concern environmental protection. On one hand, a sense of moral responsibility towards nature can help people calculate the individual costs and impacts of personal actions on our shared environmental context and on the other hand, it will provide us with constructive feedback in order to understand the benefits of taking pro-environmental action in the long term.

At present, it seems easier to convince people to act pro-environmentally by working with their short term motivations for action, than helping them adopt sustainable habits in the long-term. As a result, the current UK governmental approaches to influencing pro-environmental behaviour have a negative impact on people’s behaviour and might perhaps weaken their sense of moral responsibility towards nature, in the context of environmental degradation.

In conclusion, I hope that the ‘shared morality’ initiative in applied moral theory can become an ideational trend in environmental governance and policymaking that will offer activists and decision-makers alike grounds for an alternative approach to meeting the challenge of climate change mitigation and encouraging pro-environmental behaviour.

Earth's changing oceans: Effects and implications for iceberg calving from Antarctica's ice shelves

C. Walker (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, France)

Abstract details
Earth's changing oceans: Effects and implications for iceberg calving from Antarctica's ice shelves

C. Walker (1)
(1) Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, France

Abstract content

Ice shelves are freely floating seaward extensions of the Antarctic ice sheet. They can extend hundreds of kilometers into the ocean and drain the vast majority of ice from Antarctic ice sheet to the ocean. Iceberg calving from these ice shelves is the primary means of discharging ice from the Antarctic Ice Sheet into the Southern Ocean and, although calving events occur sporadically, when they do occur they remove large amounts of mass in a nearly instantaneously. This cycle forms part of the natural cycle of ice shelf advance and retreat with typical recurrence times between major calving events of the order of several decades. However, changes in calving rates have also been implicated in some of the most rapidly changing regions of Antarctica. Scambos et al. (2003) showed that the abrupt disintegration of both Larsen A and Larsen B ice shelves occurred following a series of abnormally warm summers. Not only were these disintegrations surprising in terms of size, but also in the speed at which they occurred; approximately 13,500 km$^2$ of ice was lost by the collective Antarctic ice shelves due to collapse in the last three decades of the 20$^{th}$ century, deemed to be possibly related to the approximately 3 degrees C increase in temperature at the Antarctic Peninsula over the last half of the century (Steffen et al., 2010). Despite the fact that calving accounts for at least half of the mass loss from the ice sheet (Rignot et al., 2013), but its relation to the changing climate remains poorly understood. 

Many major and minor ice shelves of Antarctica exist in a colder climate further South than the peninsular ice shelves and have not experienced comparable surface warming nor are they currently showing any signs of peninsular-style disintegration. They have, however, experienced increased basal melting over the past decade with some speculation that these ice shelves may especially be susceptible to ocean forcing. To realistically assess the evolution of ice shelves it is necessary to investigate the precursor to calving: the initiation and propagation of rifts through the ice.  As ice flows toward the open water rifts eventually become the boundaries at which icebergs separate from their parent ice shelf. An example of such a rift was detected in October 2011, at Pine Island Glacier (PIG) in West Antarctica.  The PIG flows outward into the Amundsen Sea, creating a 30-km floating ice tongue.  As the floating shelf elongates from the grounding line, cracks eventually form and icebergs calve off later. Rifts can initiate far upstream of the calving front and propagate for decades before an iceberg detaches.  While many studies have examined the dynamics of vertical crevasse penetration, fewer studies have examined lateral propagation and little is currently known about the forces and underlying mechanisms that drive rift propagation.  For example, it has been proposed that rifting is the cumulative result of many environmental factors, such as ocean swell induced flexure caused by pulses of ocean swell or that rifting is primarily the result of internal mechanical stresses acting to fracture the ice.

In this study we continue the monitoring work that was published in 2013, conducting observations of 15 ice shelves around Antarctica over a 15 year period between 2000 and 2015. While previously we only compared tidal swell data with rift propagation data sets, we now use a variety of oceanic data and model results to better characterize the effect of ocean changes on ice sheet and specifically the evolving effect that Earth's changing oceans might have on solid ice discharge rates from Antarctica's ice shelves.

Education on climate change through generation of local data

R. Curcoll (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Education on climate change through generation of local data

R. Curcoll (1) ; A. ÀGueda, () ; O. Batet, (1) ; S. Borràs, (1) ; L. Cañas Ramírez (1) ; C. Grossi, (1) ; M. Nofuentes Ramos () ; P. Occhipinti, (1) ; E. Vazquez, (1) ; X. Rodó (2) ; JA. Morgui (1)
(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Lab atmosphere & oceans, Barcelona, Spain; (2) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Climate dynamics and impacts unit, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

Education covers a key part in the global response to climate change. Understanding the behaviour of ecosystems, the role of the cities or the orders of magnitude of atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations help scholars and citizenship to gain a more conscious and active attitude on the climatic challenge and its causes.

 

Researchers from the Laboratory of the Atmosphere and Oceans (LAO) at the Catalan Institute of Climate Science (IC3) have developed several educational activities of outreach and workshops with scholars and citizenship to make the population aware of the causes generating climate changes and how they can contribute in reducing it. All these activities share a common aim: scholars or citizens generate and collect quality data allowing them to better understand processes that happen in our environment, regardless whether they are biological or anthropogenic processes. Another important objective of these educational activities consists in making scholars and citizenship active participants of the scientific community discussing and studying the generated data with other groups.

 

The kind of measurements can be, for instance, atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations, meteorological parameters or radiation measurements. Data generated from these measurements allow knowing the general greenhouse gases concentrations in the atmosphere and the relative increase due to fossil fuel combustions: this kind of studies makes the citizenship much more aware in understanding the role of cities in the global emissions or the relation of the ecosystems behaviour with water and temperature.

Engaging Children for a Sustainable Earth: The Case with Global Climate Ambassadors

U. Muhammad (Centre for Renewable Energy and Action on Climate Change, Gusau, Zamfara, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Engaging Children for a Sustainable Earth: The Case with Global Climate Ambassadors

U. Muhammad (1)
(1) Centre for Renewable Energy and Action on Climate Change, Gusau, Zamfara, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Introduction

The paper tends to look at the role of engaging children to make a difference in their communities especially taking actions that are climate friendly at local level and paper further examines how Global Climate Ambassadors GCA program brought together 17 organizations and 131 children from 7 countries to participate in the program in developing best practices on involving children and youth for a sustainable future thus; the paper also looks at how their participation in the 40th Planery Session of the IPCC change the entire landscape of climate change negotiations and awareness campaign among children.

Objectives

Is to empirically research on whether there is any impact of engaging children as change agents and also if the yardstick measure of the outcome of their engagement is applied, look at the significance of children’s engagement in climate change negotiations and the impact it has for global sustainability. To understand if cross boundary programs of children can have a positive impact on sustainable development.

Methods

The research uses both primary and secondary data; relevant research works from scholars was looked at and give more emphasis on the report of the program. Thus; 7 children were interviewed to know the extent of their understanding in the program and how positively it has impacted their lives, if the connection and networking at their level has anything to improve their capacity at the intercontinental connections. The work adopts analytical and descriptive method as well.

Results

The analysis of the work has shown significant understanding of sustainable development and how climate change affect everyone on earth, among the 7 children interviewed 6 strongly agreed that the program has impacted positively in their understanding of what climate change is all about, and they all strongly agree connecting them with their peers out their countries will increase their chances of sharing ideas and learning from each other.

Error characterization of global Mean Sea Level time series deduced from TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 altimeter missions

M. Ablain, (CLS, Ramonville St Agne, France)

Abstract details
Error characterization of global Mean Sea Level time series deduced from TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 altimeter missions

M. Ablain, (1) ; L. Zawadzki, (1) ; P. Prandi, (1)
(1) CLS, DOS, PMC, Ramonville St Agne, France

Abstract content

With the satellite altimetry missions, the global mean sea level (GMSL) has been calculated on a continual basis since January 1993. 'Verification' phases, during which the satellites follow each other in close succession (TOPEX/Poseidon--Jason-1, then Jason-1--Jason-2), help to link up these different missions by precisely determining any bias between them. The global mean sea level (MSL) deduced from these 3 altimetric missions provides a global rate of 3.2 mm from 1993 to 2013 applying the post glacial rebound (MSL AVISO website http://www.jason.oceanobs.com/msl).

 

Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative program, the users requirements have been collected and for the users of the Sea Level ECV, it is crucial to know as much as possible the errors impacting the MSL calculation in order to analyze the MSL variations and in fine to interpret correctly the geophysical mechanisms underlying these variations. The characterization of these errors was performed over the whole altimetric period separating several time scales as the long-term evolution (mean sea level trend), but also the inter-annual and periodic signals.

 

However, it will also be very useful to provide the confidence envelop (or error envelop) of the global MSL time series in order to know the exact error level at each time step.  In this paper, we propose to describe in details the approach developed to compute this confidence envelop. We will also present the results obtained and how to interpret them.

 

Estimating extreme dry-spell risk in the Ichkeul basin northern Tunisia

M. Mathlouthi (Research Laboratory in Science and Technology of Water in INAT, Tunis, Tunisia), F. Lebdi (National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia (INAT),, Tunis, Tunisia)

Abstract details
Estimating extreme dry-spell risk in the Ichkeul basin northern Tunisia

M. Mathlouthi (1) ; F. Lebdi (2)
(1) Research Laboratory in Science and Technology of Water in INAT, National agronomic institute of tunisia (inat), Tunis, Tunisia; (2) National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia (INAT),, Génie rural, eaux et forêts, Tunis, Tunisia

Abstract content

Drought is a natural phenomenon that can occur in all regions. Climate variability and climate change in the longer term consequences of economic, social and environmental. It is likely that climate change increases the frequency and duration of droughts, which could contribute to land degradation. One develops the event-based approach tailored to the sub-humid climatic conditions. A dry period is defined as a series of days with daily rainfall less than a given threshold. Unlike the dry period, a dry event may last only one day. Dry events are considered as a sequence of dry days separated by rainfall events from each other. Thus the rainy season is defined as a series of rainfall and subsequent dry events. Rainfall events are defined as the uninterrupted sequence of rainy days, when at last on one day more than a threshold amount of rainfall has been observed. The case study of Lake Ichkeul in north of Tunisia, at a Mediterranean climate, is used to illustrate the approach. One focuses here on the evolution of dry events in duration and frequency in the region under the influence of a changing climate. It identifies the longest dry and wet events on the history. For planning purposes, the longest dry spells associated with the various statistical recurrence periods are derived on the basis of the fitted GEV type probability distribution functions. The event-based rainfall analysis is used to calibrate the precipitation models with little rainfall records, the study of the effects of climate change and to generate long synthetic rainfall event time series. The synthetic sequences of rainfall events and dry events are used to define and calibrate simulation models for realistic planning of reservoirs or for estimating water demand irrigation.

Evaluation of Mechanisms of Extreme Temperatures over Europe and North America

I. Colfescu (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Evaluation of Mechanisms of Extreme Temperatures over Europe and North America

I. Colfescu (1) ; S. Tett (1) ; G. Hegerl (1)
(1) University of Edinburgh, School of GeoSciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The 20th century reanalysis is used to investigate changes in the monthly frequency, location and intensity of temperature extreme events during the first half of the 20th century for North America and Europe. Using composite analysis the main synoptic weather patterns associated to the events are identified in the 20th Century Reanalysis and compared to those associated with events in the latter 20th century. An assessment of the capability of CMIP5 models to simulate these extreme events and their mechanisms is also performed by comparing the model patterns with those obtained from the 20C reanalysis.

Expanding the Network of Precise Seawater Temperature Measurements for Fijian Coral Reefs

A. De Ramon N'yeurt (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji)

Abstract details
Expanding the Network of Precise Seawater Temperature Measurements for Fijian Coral Reefs

A. De Ramon N'yeurt (1) ; C. Whippy-Morris (2)
(1) The University of the South Pacific, Pacific Center for Environment and Sustainable Development, Suva, Fiji; (2) The University of the South Pacific, Institute of marine studies, Suva, Fiji

Abstract content

As part of the Pacific-wide ReefTEMPS Monitoring Network, the University of the South Pacific in collaboration with the South Pacific Integrated Observatory for the Environment and Terrestrial and Marine Biodiversity (GOPS) and the Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD), deployed for the first time high-precision (+/- 0.002°C) SBE-56 thermistors in Fiji waters since November 2012, in order to continuously monitor shallow (-10 to -16 m) seawater temperature for use in climate and tropical cyclone prediction models. The shallow water thermistors monitor temperature on a 600-second sampling interval and are rotated every 6 to 10 months, with the data being uploaded on the GOPS/ReefTEMPS data portal for free use by researchers and students. Currently the Fiji monitoring network consists of 10 sites (both in the lagoon and outer reef slope) spanning the northermost isolated island of Rotuma to Kadavu Island in the south. Futher shallow-water sites to be deployed this year (including the southernmost Ceva-i-Ra reef) should bring the total to 14. To date, some 13 datasets representing over 100 months of continuous seawater temperature monitoring for Fiji have been obtained in the context of this ongoing project. Preliminary analysis of the data has shown that the highest seawater temperatures occur in the months of February and March, with episodes that can last several days above 29°C, creating favourable conditions for tropical cyclone generation and also heightening the risk of major coral bleaching events. Such in-situ data is also essential to ground-validate data from the Satellite Virtual Station time series graphs of sea surface temperature (SST) and Coral Bleaching Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) provided by the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Satellite Virtual Station in Fiji (BEFJ1 -18.5 ° lat, 178.5 ° lon). Over the course of 2015, the monitoring network will be further expanded in depth, with a line of thermistors deployed at -55, -75 and -90 m to measure rapid temperature variations, helping to monitor ENSO effect on the thermocline depth in coastal areas, with implications for the distribution of fish and marine invertebrates and the detection of seasonal upwelling zones of cooler waters that could mitigate coral bleaching. The deeper sensors, with sampling intervals of 30 to 60 seconds, will also help to monitor rapid variations in temperature linked to internal waves in Fijian coastal areas, with implications for the understanding of the deep transfer of mass, momentum and heat which is critical for developing more accurate climate models. This would be the first time such a study is carried out in the Southern Pacific Ocean.

Extreme events effects on dissolved inorganic and organic carbon yields and fluxes in the watersheds of tropical volcanic islands, examples from Guadeloupe (FWI)

M. Benedetti (IPGP-SCP Univ. Paris Diderot, paris, France)

Abstract details
Extreme events effects on dissolved inorganic and organic carbon yields and fluxes in the watersheds of tropical volcanic islands, examples from Guadeloupe (FWI)

M. Benedetti (1) ; E. Lloret (2) ; C. Dessert (3)
(1) IPGP-SCP Univ. Paris Diderot, Aquatic Geochemistry, paris, France; (2) Université Lille 1, Lille, France; (3) IPGP-SCP Univ. Paris Diderot, Geochemistry and cosmochemistry, paris, France

Abstract content

Organic matter is an important factor that cannot be neglected when considering global carbon cycle. New dataincluding organic matter geochemistry at the small watershed scale are needed to elaborate more constrainedcarbon cycle and climatic models. The objectives are to estimate the DOC and DIC yields exported from smalltropical watersheds and to give strong constraints on the carbon hydrodynamic of these systems. To answer thesequestions, we have studied the geochemistry of eleven small watersheds around Basse-Terre volcanic Island in theFrench West Indies during different hydrological regimes from 2006 to 2008 (i.e. low water level versus floods).We propose a complete set of carbon measurements, including DOC and DIC concentrations, 13C data, and lesscommonly, some spectroscopic indicators of the nature of organic matter. The DOC/DIC ratio varies between 0.07and 0.30 in low water level and between 0.25 and 1.97 during floods, indicating that organic matter is mainlyexported during flood events. On the light of the isotopic composition of DOC, ranging from 􀀀 32.8 to 􀀀 26.2hduring low water level and from 􀀀 30.1 to 􀀀 27.2hduring floods, we demonstrate that export of organic carbon ismainly controlled by perennial saprolite groundwaters, except for flood events during which rivers are also stronglyinfluenced by soil erosion. The mean annual yields ranged from 2.5 to 5.7 t km􀀀 2 year􀀀 1 for the DOC and from4.8 to 19.6 t km􀀀 2 year􀀀 1 for the DIC and exhibit a non-linear relationship with slopes of watersheds. The flashfloods explain around 60% of the annual DOC flux and between 25 and 45% of the DIC flux, highlighting theimportant role of these extreme meteorological events on global carbon export in small tropical volcanic islands.From a carbon mass balance point of view the exports of dissolved carbon from small volcanic islands are importantand should be included in global organic carbon budgets.

Extreme Hydrological Events, Vulnerability and Coping Mechanism for Sustainable Livelihood in Alaknanda River, Basin, Uttarakhand

B. W. Pandey (University of Delhi, Delhi, India)

Abstract details
Extreme Hydrological Events, Vulnerability and Coping Mechanism for Sustainable Livelihood in Alaknanda River, Basin, Uttarakhand

BW. Pandey (1)
(1) University of Delhi, Department of Geography, Delhi, India

Abstract content

Extreme events are sudden calamities, which involve loss of life, property and livelihood. This paper presents a methodological approach for the integration of extreme events, climatic vulnerability, land use scenario modeling and flood risk assessment. Alaknanda river basin is located in the eastern part of the Garhwal Himalaya and represents one of the most acutely hazard-prone regions in the country. The important factor causing flood and also accelerate several hydrological hazards during monsoon periods in Alaknanda river are heavy rainfall, cloud burst, GLOF, landslides, Slope failure, earthquakes, deforestation, poor drainage due to urbanisation.  These hydrological hazards are mainly responsible for several socioeconomic consequences (cultivated land degradation, infrastructure loss, human casualties, loss of transmission lines, and so on) in the Alaknanda river basin, Uttarakhand.  Primary data from each hotspot has been collected through a questionnaire survey and a Participatory Research Approach (PRA) procedure that is based on the LIFE approach. The LIFE Approach is based on Livelihood options, Institutional participation in adaptation policy design and implementation, Food security and Empowerment parameters like health and education. These parameters are important in building resilience capacity and ensuring sustainable development pathways. The methodology will be consists of a number of steps with primary and secondary data analysis.  This paper also provides various mitigation processes for the challenges faced and formulate sustainable development strategy for the development in the Alaknanda river basin, Uttarakhand. 

Extreme rainfall analysis and water resources system sensitivity in Nigeria

O. Adeaga (University of Lagos, Lagos, France)

Abstract details
Extreme rainfall analysis and water resources system sensitivity in Nigeria

O. Adeaga (1)
(1) University of Lagos, Geography, Lagos, France

Abstract content

Climate change poses unique challenges to global socio-economic development and growth of the societies due to multiple shocks and stresses concurrently faced. This call for studies to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on the society. Extreme rainfall events today pose a serious threat to many populated and urbanized areas worldwide since anthropogenic climate change is now widely considered to have the potential not just to cause perturbations in the weather but also to create major discontinuities in many complex natural and human systems.

 

Hence, the need for an accurate estimate of frequency and distribution of extreme rainfall events can significantly aid policy planning in the area of land use planning and water resources system design that suits the harmonizing plan of their enormous physical structure and hydrological system. Quality precipitation information remains an indispensable requirement for warning systems, hydraulic structures design, risk assessment and hydrological modelling.  Hence, reliable spatial information on precipitation distribution and pattern at finer climate information scale remains an important tool towards attaining a sustainable socio- economic development of a region, in the wave of climate change and variability.

 

In this study an attempt was made to address the potential effect of extreme rainfall events on the water resources system sensitivity in Nigeria, in the aftermath of observed current global change scenarios. These analysis entails fitting of statistical distribution of the monthly rainfall dataset (1960 – 2005) for the analysis of extreme events and generation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves. Also, the threshold level was used to evaluate the extreme conditions. This is necessary in other to address potential climate change effect in terms extreme rainfall occurrence and water resources system sensitivity in Nigeria.

Flooded area CHARACTERIZATION AND LOSS ESTIMATES FOR IMPROVING THE WATER BALANCE OF THE NIGER INLAND DELTA, MALI

M. Ibrahim (University Abomey Calavi, WASCAL, Cotonou, Benin)

Abstract details
Flooded area CHARACTERIZATION AND LOSS ESTIMATES FOR IMPROVING THE WATER BALANCE OF THE NIGER INLAND DELTA, MALI

M. Ibrahim (1) ; D. Wisser (2) ; A. Abel (3)
(1) University Abomey Calavi, WASCAL, GRP. Water Resources and Climate Change, Cotonou, Benin; (2) University of Bonn, Center for development research (zef), Bonn, Germany; (3) Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Graduate research program on climate change and water resources, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Abstract content

Water availability is an ongoing challenge for West African countries in general, and the Niger River basin in particular. The Niger Inland Delta (NID) has experienced annual flood events from the Niger and Bani Rivers. During such events, the flooded area can cover 40,000 km2, and extend to 350 km long and 100 km wide in Mali. While these NID events can have considerable influence on downstream flow regimes due to water loss significantly impacting water availability, the processes that occur in NID are not fully incorporated in the conceptual development of many hydrological models of Niger Basin runoff. Though several studies in this region have developed conceptual models to represent hydrological processes in the system, the models have been criticized for their limitations and unsophisticated concepts for explicitly representing all the hydrological processes. This paper discusses an attempt to better assess the NID hydrological processes by considering more physical information about the system, and incorporating wetland processes into an existing hydrological model to improve model simulations of the basin.

The approach illustrates how flooded surface area estimates from large amounts of remote sensing data can be used to monitor flood dynamics with adequate spatial and temporal resolution. Characteristics of the extent of the flooded area are determined from monthly scale inflow levels data, and flooded areas within a non-linear regression based model. Previous correlations between flow levels and flooded areas were refined to account for the hysteresis as flooding recedes, and the timing of the area expansion. The model of the spatiotemporal extent of the flooding over the NID shows that the flooded areas varied between 25,000km2 in wet periods and 2,000 km2 in dry periods, resulting in actual evapotranspiration loss of between 17 km3 and 10 km3. The contribution of water abstraction from irrigated fields and direct precipitation assessments of flooded areas refined the NID water balance and infiltration estimates. The results of the timing and extent of the flood and water loss across the NID helped determine both the development of storage in one year, and the year-to-year variations. Furthermore, information about the NID flood dynamics and water budget can be used to develop and calibrate a specific model of the NID, and thereby account for the loss in hydrological models.

Future precipitation extremes are linked to changes in moisture flux anomalies

L. Harrington (Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand)

Abstract details
Future precipitation extremes are linked to changes in moisture flux anomalies

L. Harrington (1) ; S. Dean, (2)
(1) New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand; (2) National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand

Abstract content

Understanding the response of precipitation extremes to anthropogenic climate change is currently based on a simple thermodynamic link to future warming (proportional to the Clausius-Clapeyron equation). While previous work has identified empirical links between observed flooding events and the occurrence of specific circulation patterns, often containing filamentary bands of anomalous moisture flux, the large-scale dynamics driving extreme precipitation remains poorly characterised. Here, we introduce a diagnostic measure of the explicit link between extreme precipitation events (>99.5th percentile) and incoming moisture flux anomalies. This represents a significant development over previous methods which sought arbitrarily defined ‘atmospheric river’ events. Robust links are found between anomalous moisture flux and corresponding extreme 24-hour precipitation accumulations, with a particular significance placed on meridional moisture fluxes of tropical origin. Using this metric, we explicitly calculate future changes to the likelihood of precipitation extremes attributed to changes in large-scale moisture and wind fields. Preliminary results of applying this analysis to the CMIP5 ensemble under an RCP8.5 warming scenario are considered, particularly for mid-latitude regions.

Future trends of South American droughts: comparison between the reference period 1961-1990, and the RCM-CORDEX projections in the period 2071-2100

J. D. Giraldo Osorio (Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Bogotá D. C., Colombia)

Abstract details
Future trends of South American droughts: comparison between the reference period 1961-1990, and the RCM-CORDEX projections in the period 2071-2100

JD. Giraldo Osorio (1)
(1) Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Civil Engineering, Bogotá D. C., Colombia

Abstract content

1 Introduction

The relationship between positive precipitation anomalies and the warm phase of ENSO phenomenon (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) has been broadly documented in the southern South America (Grimm and Tedeschi, 2009; Grimm, Barros, and Doyle, 2000). Nonetheless, the tropical region of the continent faces drought conditions when El Niño is turned on (Poveda and Salazar, 2004; Marengo, 2004; Fu et al., 2001). Another studies have shown the broad spreading of positive trends in temperature time series, and the negative trend of precipitation time series in some areas of Amazonian basin (Aguilar et al., 2005; Haylock et al., 2006). These positive trends for temperature, and erratic trends for precipitation, are consistent with the climate models projections (Marengo et al., 2009; Urrutia and Vuille, 2009; Cook and Vizy, 2008).

Given the scenario described above, some questions arise about what will happen with South American droughts. Li et al. (2008)  showed that, according to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Amazon region has been undergone to recurrent drought conditions since 1970s, which were particularly strong during the great drought of 2005 (Zeng et al., 2008). However, it seems that periods of drought in southern South America will be reduced because the spatial re-arrangement of precipitation. The objectives of this project are computing the Dry Spells Length (DSL) for different intensities of drought; as well as, computing trends and future changes on South American droughts using data from Regional Climate Models (RCM).

2 Methodology and Results

2.1 Data

Precipitation’s time series from Delaware University database (Matsuura and Willmott 2012a; Matsuura and Willmott 2012b) were used in order to compute the climate model’s bias from observed data. The future trends of droughts were estimated using RCM from CORDEX project (Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). The RCM were developed by SMHI (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways). The spatial resolution of the models is about 50 km close to the terrestrial equator.

2.2 Drought definition

The SPI was chosen in the present work as drought’s metric (Agnew, 2000). The SPI is among the most widely used drought index because its versatility, since it only uses precipitation data. The SPI could be computed using several temporal scales (e. g. 3, 6, 9 or 12 months). The more negative is the SPI, the more intense are the drought periods.

From the SPI, the depiction of the droughts was done in the reference time window 1961-1990 (also, 1961-1990 was the reference time window to compute the SPI), and in the projected future by the RCM (time window 2071-2100). The droughts were characterized using DSL with a minimal length of two months, together with several levels of drought intensities (through SPI values of 0, -0.5, -1.0, -1.5 and -2.0).

The dry spell length (DSL) time series were built in each grid point. From these time series were computed the mean length of dry spell for each drought intensity, the longest dry spell and was established the number of months in the time windows (i. e. reference and future periods) that were undergo an specific intensity of drought.

2.3 Preliminary results

Initial results show a rise of droughts severity, located in Los Andes mountains from Colombia, Perú and Ecuador. Also, more intense droughts conditions are predicted in the Amazonian basin (tri-border area between Colombia, Peru and Brazil), the Gran Chaco natural region, and southern Chile.

The drought trends are, in general, coherent with the predicted changes on annual mean precipitation, estimated with SMHI-RCM. However, in some regions (e. g. central area of Chile), the rise of drought conditions does not go well with the diminishing on mean precipitation, which suggests a re-arranging of annual cycle of rain.

Geochemical evidence of past atmospheric circulation along a 40-50°N longitudinal transect across Europe during the last climatic cycle

C. Hatté (CEA, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

Abstract details
Geochemical evidence of past atmospheric circulation along a 40-50°N longitudinal transect across Europe during the last climatic cycle

C. Hatté (1) ; C. Gauthier (2) ; DD. Rousseau (3) ; P. Antoine (4) ; M. Fuchs (5) ; F. Lagroix (6) ; O. Moine (4) ; A. Sima (7)
(1) CEA, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) CNRS, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) CNRS, Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers, Paris, France; (4) CNRS, Laboratoire de géographie physique, environnements quaternaires et actuels, Meudon, France; (5) University of Giessen, Department of geography, Giessen, Germany; (6) CNRS, Institut de physique du globe de paris, Paris, France; (7) CNRS, Laboratoire de météorologie dynamique, Paris, France

Abstract content

Highlighting the impact on regional scale of global climate changes is a major issue in climatology and paleoclimatology. While large large (global or continental) scale studies help evaluating the direct physical forcing of climate on ecosystems, constraining the effect of this forcing at local to regional scales is essential to evaluate ecosystem feedbacks on climate.

 

In paleoclimatology, isotopic organic geochemistry (d13Corg) of typical loess is now widely used to investigate past precipitation (average annual values and monthly distribution) and thus to tackle the impact of past climate changes on a regional scale. This type of study has been applied to several loess-paleosol sequences along a 40-50°N transect from Western France to central Ukraine. The d13Corg analyses were performed in parallel with those of other climate and environmental proxies like grain size, pedology, paleomagnetism and malacology. The investigated records cover the last climate cycle with sedimentation rates as high as 0.15 and 1 mm/yr during periods of loess deposition.

 

All these records show alternating periods of more or less pronounced climatic pejoration (glacial stadial) and improvement (glacial interstadial). The combined analysis of all sequences for each climatic episode allows us to propose a schema of intensity of past climate change effects on the European continent. Here we highlight two precipitation gradients that prevailed during most of the last glacial period: a West-to-East decreasing gradient in mean annual precipitation and a North-to-South reinforcement of the seasonality.

Geospatial land use analysis and its relation to the climate change

A. Shelestov (Space Research Institute NAS and SSA of Ukraine, Kyiv, France)

Abstract details
Geospatial land use analysis and its relation to the climate change

A. Shelestov (1) ; N. Kussul (2) ; M. Lavreniuk (2) ; S. Skakun (3)
(1) National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine; (2) Space research institute NASU-SSAU, Kyiv, Ukraine; (3) Integration-Plus Ltd, Kyiv, Ukraine

Abstract content

Land use analysis plays an important role in studying and understanding processes in ecosystems and solving many applied problems based on satellite monitoring. In particular, it allows to improve the accuracy of classification and areas estimation and to analyze climate change and its impact on agricultural production and whole biosphere. Since the 1980s there are many land use datasets based on satellite images, but they had low spatial resolution and accuracy. Also, in 2013-2014 years, several global maps have been made available, but they are not accurate enough at regional level. Low-resolution maps underestimate or overestimate certain land cover types. Therefore, creation of global and regional land cover maps based on high-resolution satellite images (such as Landsat series at 30 m) is an extremely important task. In this study, we produced land cover maps for the whole territory of Ukraine based on the Landsat-4/5/7 images for three decades: 1990s, 2000s and 2010s. These maps allow estimation of the general trends of land cover/use in Ukraine and discovering how geospatial land use influence on the climate change. This paper discusses methodological aspects to obtain a retrospective maps of land cover based on Landsat images at regional scale, including all preprocessing steps for satellite imagery, formation of training and test sets, classification method and result analysis.

Training (50%) and test (50%) sets consist of six main land cover classes: artificial surface, cropland, grassland, forest, bare land and water. We formed sets using a photo interpretation method with uniform spatial distribution over the target territory and proportional representation of all classes. Images contained six spectral bands and three bands with shadow, cloud and cloud contours masks. We selected images with less than 50% of cloud cover for classification. First, we restored cloudy pixels from time-series of images using self-organizing Kohonen maps (SOMs). After that, we provided classification based on the time-series of restored images available for the certain year [1]. Classification was done using an ensemble of neural networks, namely multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) and such an approach have been provided better result than single neural network. After classification, each neural network gave a posteriori probability of the input pixel belonging to each class. In an ensemble, we estimated the average a posteriori probability from all networks and assign to the pixel class with the highest probability.

We estimated the accuracy of classification on independent test set. The overall classification accuracy achieved in the study was approximately 95%. Accuracies for each individual class were more than 70%. The lowest accuracy was for grassland since it is difficult to separate grassland from cropland. At the same time, we compare the obtained areas and official statistics for each oblast and for the whole territory of Ukraine for each time period (1990, 2000, 2010). In addition, we compared the accuracy of our classification for Ukraine with global land cover map GlobeLand30-2010 at 30 m resolution. The overall classification accuracy for Ukraine was 5% higher than GlobeLand30-2010. Accuracy of grassland classification was +10% (producer accuracy) and +45% (user accuracy) better than GlobeLand30-2010.

This paper presented a retrospective land cover mapping methodology for the territory of Ukraine based on Landsat data at 30 m resolution. The proposed methodology involved classification of multi-temporal satellite images with neural networks on previously restored cloudy pixels. The map was produced for the whole territory of Ukraine. The use of the proposed approached allowed us to achieve overall classification accuracy of 95% for three different time periods and improve quality of maps comparing to other land cover maps available for Ukraine, namely GlobeLand30-2010. At the presentation the results of climate changes influence on land use will be discussed in more detail.

[1] F.J. Gallego, N. Kussul, S. Skakun, O. Kravchenko, A. Shelestov, and O. Kussul, “Efficiency assessment of using satellite data for crop area estimation in Ukraine,” International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, vol. 29, pp. 22–30, 2014.

Getting Back to the Source: A review of Earth science data citation and access

M. Parsons (Research Data Alliance, Boulder, France)

Abstract details
Getting Back to the Source: A review of Earth science data citation and access

M. Parsons (1)
(1) Research Data Alliance, Boulder, France

Abstract content

Creating a great data set can be a life’s work (consider Charles Keeling). Yet, scientists do not receive much recognition for creating rigorous, useful data. At the same time, in a post “climategate” world there is increased scrutiny on science and a greater need than ever to adhere to scientific principles of transparency and reproducibility. In this sense it is clear that scientific assertions must be backed up by precise pointers to the actual evidence used. In many cases this should take the form of a data citation. Indeed the IPCC has increasingly rigorous data citation requirements for its assessment.

 

The concept of data citation has gained significant traction in recent years. This is most apparent in the Joint Declaration of Data Citation Principles. Some communities such as DataVerse, DataCite, and the Earth Science Information Partners have developed specific guidelines on how to actually cite data. Challenges remain, however, on how to precisely cite specific subsets of very dynamic data. Moreover, there is still some confusion on the purposes of data citation.

 

This presentation will review the current state of the art in data citation with a special emphasis on new developments coming out of the Research Data Alliance, Force11, and elsewhere. It will make concrete recommendations on the purposes and approaches of data citation, especially in the context of climate research and assertions.

Getting from here to a sustainable world: Why “handprint” measurement which drives pro-environment behavior be crucial to addressing climate change?

C. Hemani (Self employed, Ahmedabad, India)

Abstract details
Getting from here to a sustainable world: Why “handprint” measurement which drives pro-environment behavior be crucial to addressing climate change?

C. Hemani (1)
(1) Self employed, Ahmedabad, India

Abstract content

Exponential increase in human population from 5 million in 8000 BC to over 7 billion humans in 2012 coupled with unsustainable consumption and production patterns is putting an undue pressure on the limited natural resources. It’s not planet and the diminishing natural resources but our own species at risk if we continue with this present model of development. Thus climate change is not an issue in isolation, but rather, a symptom of a broader challenge: humanity’s systematic overuse of the planet’s finite resources. This accelerating gap between human demand and nature’s supply is leading to another crunch of bio-capacity.

 

In a world facing climate change issues and a bio-capacity crunch, the winning economic strategies will be preserving bio-capacity on the one hand, and reducing demand for it on the other which in turn would serve as the leading strategies for minimising climate change. But how is this possible? Climate change and high carbon lifestyles as a narrative of future gloom and doom only disempowers people to act. What if we focus on solution rather than problem? What if we focus on accounting positive actions powered by pro-environment behaviour to drive low carbon lifestyles? Sustainable development would require changes in the way we think and act. And education is one of the most effective mediums to bring about changes in values, behaviour and lifestyles required to achieve sustainability.

 

Scientifically driven and educative accounting tools like carbon foot print, ecological foot print measures our actions either in terms of amount of carbon dioxide released in the atmosphere or in terms of resources of the earth which would be needed to match our lifestyles and suggests our negative impacts on the environment respectively. While Handprint is a symbol of positive measure for what we can do individually or through collective effort to restore the balance between consumption and the planet’s carrying capacity. Studies suggest that positive accounting not only presents hope but also suggests how it affects behaviour changes benefiting society to drive more positive actions. Handprint accounting is one such educative tool to drive pro-environment behaviour and actions.

 

It answers questions like how my changes in behaviour and actions would result in greenhouse gas reductions and would contribute to safe guarding environment, promoting sustainable development and thus would help in achieving climate change mitigation caps. Such measures would act as a roadmap to achieve a sustainable future.

 

This research focuses on developing a scientifically driven educational tool for handprint which in turn establishes links between measuring positive actions via handprint scores driving climate smart behaviour and climate change mitigation potential.

Glacier retreat from a regional point of view: Characterization of glacier area changes over the Southern Central Andes Region

N. Zazulie (University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina), E. Briche, (UMI-IFAECI 3351/CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina), M. Rusticucci (University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires , Argentina), G. B. Raga, (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico DF, Mexico)

Abstract details
Glacier retreat from a regional point of view: Characterization of glacier area changes over the Southern Central Andes Region

N. Zazulie (1) ; E. Briche, (2) ; M. Rusticucci (3) ; GB. Raga, (4)
(1) University of Buenos Aires, Deparment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (2) UMI-IFAECI 3351/CNRS-CONICET-UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina; (3) University of Buenos Aires, Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, Buenos Aires , Argentina; (4) Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Centro de ciencias de la atmosfera, Mexico DF, Mexico

Abstract content

In the region known as the southern central Andes of Argentina and Chile (between 30° and 37°S), some of the highest peaks are found. Glaciers are present in the high Andes from which originate several of the main rivers that flow through Chile to the Pacific and through Argentina to the Atlantic. Because of the temperate climate in the foothills on both sides of the Andes, this region is inhabited by the majority of the Chilean population as well as the largest fraction of the population in western Argentina. It is located in the transition between the region where the maximum precipitation over the Andes is observed and the desert regions of northern Chile. In this transition region, winter precipitation (mainly snow) associated with extratropical systems is sporadic in space and time and the melting of the yearly snowpack is the main source of summer river flow. Under these circumstances, mountain glaciers play an important role in the hydrological system of the region as they serve as a natural reservoir that can buffer the impact of dry seasons on socioeconomic activities in the region. Under a climate change context, the consequences of this phenomenon over glaciers are well observed at a global scale. Nevertheless a regional study of glacier variations over the Southern Central Andes Region has not yet been carried out.

We have selected images from the Landsat satellite from different years in the period 1989-2014. These images were obtained from the United States Geological Survey website. They have a spatial resolution of 30x30 m and they are ortorectified and georreferenced with the global reference system WGS84 and projected with the projection system UTM (Universal Transversal Mercator). All the images were obtained during the end of the ablation season, from the end of March to the beginning of April, when the seasonal snow has already melted. A false color composition that distinguishes ice surfaces was used. A supervised classification was applied with the purpose of making glacier evolution maps of the entire region. Changes are studied in terms of total glaciated areas and in individual glacier area.

Although some years have shown small advances, a general decrease in the total glaciated area was found. Both the altitudinal and latitudinal dependence was explored. Every latitudinal band has shown different rates of changes which imply that environmental factors other than latitude may play key role in determining the difference in the observed changes. Futherthermore, a number of glaciers were identified and studied as independent units which allows to consider other environmental factors, such as morphological characteristics of the different glaciers. As an example, the glacier Juncal del Sur (33º06’S, 70º07'W) situated in the Aconcagua river basin near the metropolitan area of Santiago de Chile has lost more than 25% of its total area between 1989 and 2014. Another glacier with accumulation zone at similar altitude, the Maipo volcano glacier (34º09’S-69º48’W) has reduced its total area by less than 20% in the same period. Even though the glaciers are situated within the same region, the second glacier belongs to a protected area. These factors are key when analyzing different behaviors within the same region.

Global Changes in Drought Historically and under Future Climate Scenarios

S. Justin (Princeton University, Princeton, United States of America), J. Kam, (Princeton University, Princeton, United States of America)

Abstract details
Global Changes in Drought Historically and under Future Climate Scenarios

S. Justin (1) ; J. Kam, (1)
(1) Princeton University, Princeton, United States of America

Abstract content

Droughts are extremely costly hydrological events that can have multiple and long-lasting effects on society and ecosystems. Evidence has been put forward that the risk of drought has increased in recent years due to a changing climate and there is an expectation that droughts will become more severe in the future under projected climate scenarios in response to changes in precipitation and increases in atmospheric demand. Furthermore, direct human impacts on the water resources have already had large impacts on water availability locally and may have as much as, if not more, of an impact in the future. The compound effect of increasing drought severity and increasing water demand is worrisome, especially for the most vulnerable populations.

This work quantifies and analyzes the evolution of drought during the instrumental period (back to the late 19th century) and under future climate projections from CMIP5 models. Drought is analyzed in terms of its characteristics (frequency, area, duration and severity) and the co-evolution of the forcings (precipitation and potential evaporation). The historical analysis is based on updated multi-model land surface simulations driven by a hybrid meteorological dataset that merges available station observations with reanalysis. Drought is quantified based on anomalies in precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow, representing different aspects of drought: meteorological, agricultural and hydrological. There are considerable uncertainties in long-term changes because of: uncertainties in changes in precipitation due to station sampling and errors in large-scale datasets (e.g. from satellites and reanalyses); uncertainties in changes in other less well observed surface meteorological variables such as humidity and windspeed, and in surface radiation that drive potential evaporation; and uncertainties among land surface models in how drought propagates from meteorological to soil moisture to hydrological drought. In particular, the uncertainties are highest in transitional to dry regions where the station density is generally lower and differences among land surface models becomes important.

Future projections of drought from CMIP5 models indicate an overall propensity towards increased drought severity in many regions due to changes in precipitation seasonality and atmospheric demand. In some regions, such as the Mediterranean and southern Africa, the changes are set against a background of increasing aridity. However, the magnitude of these changes is highly dependent on the climate model in addition to the emissions scenario. We focus on the uncertainty in drought projections with respect to climate model ability to replicate the observational estimates of land-atmosphere coupling as derived from our ensemble of land surface models. Results indicate that the representation of coupling in the models between soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and temperature plays a role in the uncertainty in future projected changes in evapotranspiration with implications for changes in available water and drought.

Global-Scale Atmosphere Monitoring by In-Service Aircraft – Current Achievements and Future Prospects of the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS

V. Thouret (CNRS et Université Paul Sabatier - Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
Global-Scale Atmosphere Monitoring by In-Service Aircraft – Current Achievements and Future Prospects of the European Research Infrastructure IAGOS

V. Thouret (1) ; A. Petzold (2) ; C. Brenninkmeijer (3) ; JP. Cammas (4) ; P. Dandin (5) ; JM. Flaud (6) ; M. Gallagher (7) ; C. Gerbig (8) ; M. Hermann (9) ; P. Nedelec (1) ; M. Pontaud (5) ; H. Smit (2) ; A. Volz-Thomas (10) ; A. Wahner (11) ; A. Zahn (12) ; H. Ziereis (13)
(1) CNRS et Université Paul Sabatier - Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Laboratoire d'Aérologie, Toulouse, France; (2) Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of energy and climate research 8 - troposphere, Jülich, Germany; (3) Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany; (4) CNRS et Université Paul Sabatier - Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Now at osu la réunion, Toulouse / Saint-Denis, France; (5) Météo-France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France; (6) CNRS, Paris, France; (7) University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; (8) Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany; (9) Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig, Germany; (10) IAGOS-AISBL, Bruxelles, Belgium; (11) Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of energy and climate research 8 - troposphere,, Jülich, Germany; (12) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; (13) DLR Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

Abstract content

Reliable predictions of the future climate using climate models are central and fundamental requirements for determining future mitigation strategies. The use of commercial aircraft allows the collection of highly relevant observations on a scale and in sheer quantity impossible to achieve using research aircraft, and at altitudes where other measurement methods (e.g., satellites) fall short. It has been extensively demonstrated by 3 ongoing international projects in Europe and Japan now that commercial aircraft are ideal platforms to record vertical profiles from ground to 12 km to the tropopause region over areas never or poorly sampled by other programs (e.g. surface or radio soundings network) and to sample the atmosphere between 9 and 12 km at high horizontal and vertical resolution corresponding to the critical upper troposphere / lower stratosphere (UT/LS) region at mid-latitudes, where most long-range aircraft fly. The European Research Infrastructure IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System; www.iagos.org) operates a global-scale monitoring system for atmospheric composition, aerosols and clouds by using Airbus A340 and/or A330 long-range aircraft performing regular intercontinental flights. Today’s participating airlines, Lufthansa, Air France, China Airlines, Cathay Pacific and Iberia, ensure global-scale coverage by the infrastructure (see map of the flight on htt://www.iagos.fr), which is designed for a lifetime of at least 20 years. IAGOS complements the global observing system in addition to ground-based networks, dedicated research campaigns, satellites, balloons, and ships. The infrastructure builds on the heritage of former research projects MOZAIC (Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapour on Airbus In-service Aircraft; http://www.iagos.fr/mozaic) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the Atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container; http://www.caribic-atmospheric.com). IAGOS is now the European Research Infrastructure combining and coordinating these two different and complementary approaches/methodologies which comprise (i) IAGOS-core based on MOZAIC (a fleet of 15 to 20 aircraft flying a reduced set of automatic instruments) and (ii) IAGOS-CARIBIC based on CARIBIC (1 aircraft flying a 1.5 ton laboratory with 16 instruments deployed once a month for 4 flights). IAGOS combines research centres, universities, national weather services, airline operators and aviation industry. It provides data for users in science and policy including air quality forecasting, verification of CO2 emissions and Kyoto monitoring, numerical weather prediction, and validation of global chemical transport model, global climate chemical model and satellite products. Since its participation in the on-going MACC projects (http://www.iagos.fr/macc), and demonstration and delivery of core data in near real time (NRT) and soon in real time for a subset of information, IAGOS is considered a major contributor to the in-situ component of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Services (CAMS). The IAGOS infrastructure is currently the only approach to providing regular in-situ observations in the UT/LS over mid-latitudes at high spatial resolution (4 seconds or 1 km horizontally) and vertical profiles (4 seconds or 30 meters vertically) of reactive gases, greenhouse gases, and aerosol concentration in the troposphere over continental sites, never or sparsely sampled by other programs, (e.g. in Africa, South East Asia, and South America). In combination with its predecessor programs MOZAIC and CARIBIC, IAGOS has been providing long-term observational data of atmospheric chemical composition in the UT/LS since 1994 with to date 20 year time series of temperature, H2O and O3, and 9-15 years of aerosol, CO, NOy, CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6, Hg, acetone, ~30 HFCs, ~20 NMHC data. This presentation will give an overview of the original results achieved so far and a number of highlights to illustrate the promise IAGOS data hold for the future (new measured compounds along with near real time and real time transmission of data), taking full advantage of coupled chemistry-dynamics atmospheric models, allowing new applications and analysis for a broad community of users. One of the most striking examples we will highlight concerns evaluation of forecast runs with IAGOS NRT data as proposed in the frame of CAMS.

Green and Blue Water Impact Assessment under AR5 Climate Change Scenarios in Asian Monsoon Region

D. Bae (Professor, Sejong University, Civil & Environmental Engrg., Seoul, 143-747, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
Green and Blue Water Impact Assessment under AR5 Climate Change Scenarios in Asian Monsoon Region

D. Bae (1) ; M. Lee (2)
(1) Professor, Sejong University, Civil & Environmental Engrg., Director, center for climate change adaptation for water resources, Seoul, 143-747, Republic of Korea; (2) PhD candiate student, Sejong University,, Department of civil engineering, Seoul, 143-747, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

The evaluation of continental-scale water availability is an important issue for sharing and distribution of transboundary water resources. Water resources are abundant in some regions, but water scarcity has been a major disaster in many other regions. In particular, the water resources in Asia monsoon region are more important, because they provide many benefits but also cause serious drought problems. There are various reasons for these water-related disasters, but the current climate change will be one of the critical triggers for the upcoming water scarcity.

In this sense, the understanding of climate change impact on green and blue waters and the development of climate change adaptation framework for water resources over the region will be important and urgent issue. The objectives of this study are to investigate the future climate change impacts on green and blue waters in addition to the changes of temperature and precipitation and to delineate the highly variable regions under future AR5 climate change scenarios in the Asian Monsoon region. Several GCMs representing the better performance in this region were selected and used for climate change projections. The change factor method with bilinear interpolation method was used to project climate change at 0.5 degree horizontal grid resolution. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model was employed to project runoff using future climate change scenarios. Average temperature, precipitation, green and blue waters were projected for all future periods i.e. 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. These findings can be useful for the better implementation of climate change adaptation strategies and wise water resources management in this region.

 

Groundwater induced flood estimation in extreme rainfall context; methodological approach applied to Somme basin (France)

N. Amraoui (BRGM, Orléans, France)

Abstract details
Groundwater induced flood estimation in extreme rainfall context; methodological approach applied to Somme basin (France)

N. Amraoui (1) ; JJ. Seguin (2)
(1) BRGM, Water environment & ecotechnologies division, Orléans, France; (2) BRGM, Orleans, France

Abstract content

Climate change is expected to modify hydrological cycle, and extreme events would be more frequent. Increasing extreme precipitation (frequency and intensity) projected in northern Europe and continental Europe (IPCC WG2 AR5 chapter 21) would result in an increase of flood risk. In chalky basins located in northern France (Somme catchment) and the United Kingdom (Pang and Lambourn catchments), groundwater flooding, with return periods superior to 100 years has already occurred in winter 2000/20101. The estimation of groundwater contribution to flood peak under extreme rainfall context remains difficult because of a lack of appropriate methods and data. Nevertheless, this estimation is a decisive element for policy makers to assess and manage the flood risks.

In the Somme basin, a probabilistic approach to develop "extreme" climate scenarios based on cumulative rainfall return period of 1000 years and hydrodynamic modeling of the groundwater and rivers system were used. A statistical extreme value analysis using a long rainfall time series allowed defining rainfall events of return period of 1000 years. Correlative analysis rainfall-discharge of the Somme river at the watershed outlet (Abbeville station) performed with cumulative rainfall over n days show that the best correlation is obtained with a total of n=180 rainy days. In addition, estimating the river discharge of return period 1000 years was made by fitting a probability distribution for extreme events (GEV law)

Several scenarios were simulated with the hydrodynamic model of the Somme basin; they differ in the temporal distribution of daily rainfall over the period of 180 days, the groundwater level at the onset of the rainy millennial episode, and the value of base flow of the river at the start of the rainy millennial episode.

The results highlight the rainfall distribution importance on the maximum discharges and the influence of the water table and the base flow of the river at the onset of the rainy period. It is also clear that for such climatic events, the groundwater contribution to the Somme river discharge remains important, between 65% and 72% of the flow according to the scenarios.

Historical floods in North Algeria

M. Mohamed (Higher National School of Hydraulics, BLIDA, Algeria)

Abstract details
Historical floods in North Algeria

M. Mohamed (1)
(1) Higher National School of Hydraulics, BLIDA, Algeria

Abstract content

the flood of 1974, which occurred in Kabylie and Algiers regions. This flood has produced 52 dead and 18 000 victims and enormous material damage in Kabylie. The corresponding rates for this event are 2972 ​​m3/s (80-year return period), 2940 m3/s (92-year return period) and 2520 m3/s (130 year return period) at Baghlia, Belloua and Lakhdaria hydrometrics stations respectively in the region of Kabylie. The disaster also affected Algiers. Floods in eastern Algiers, and for the same period, has produced significant damage. At the Baraki station, a flow rate of 1,620 m3/s with a return period of 100 was raised. At the bottom of the Atlas Blidéen, the station of the Rocher des piégeons, a flow of 820 m3/s with a return period of 40 was recorded. The floods were followed a rain event, recorded at mountain pass Skamody (Atlas overlooking the Mitidja East) is 620 mm (58% of the annual total) in four days and 310 mm (30% of the annual total) in one day with 32-year return period. It is noted that the return period of rain is not as important as the maximum flow rates recorded for this period. The city of Azzazga in the Kabilye was also the scene of a spectacular flood in October 1971. The disaster killed 40 people. The return period of the recorded flow is 20 years and generator rain of this flood was 182.6 mm in one day with 300 years return period. The danger of these floods, which caused many deaths and material losses, is due to the combination of the nature of rainfall and the relief of the region. The region is characterized by rugged terrain very favorable to flow and the rapid progression of the flood wave.

In Western countries, the floods of Oued Rhiou, occurred in 1993, caused the death of 22 people. The recorded maximum flow was 719 m3/s with a return period of 17 years. In the same region, in 1965, major floods were recorded with 825 m3/s at Oued Rhiou station and 809 m3/s at Relizane  station with a 30-year return period. Also on the west of the country (region I), the floods of October 2000 caused 4 deaths. The maximum flow was 550 m3/s with a return period of 80 years. The maximum rainfall recorded for this period was 85 mm with a return period of 15 years. It finds that almost the maximum daily rainfall can not explain the dangerous flood but it should be considered a combination of relief and the moisture condition of the soil as important parameters in the genesis of these disastrous floods. 

How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modelling approach

D. Carrer (Meteo France, Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modelling approach

D. Carrer (1) ; N. Laanaia (1) ; JC. Calvet (1)
(1) Meteo France, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

The expected response of climate to the increase in greenhouse gas concentration during the 21st century is a 2-3°C warming in Europe (IPCC 2007). However, the sign of the response differs from a climate model to another. Two climate models predicting the same sign in the response of temperature and precipitation, but presenting different magnitudes of change, can lead to very different impacts. This is particularly true if we examine how climate conditions would affect the vegetation cycle. In particular, the implementation of adaptation strategies of agriculture to climate change is conditioned by the knowledge of impacts and of the associated uncertainties. The new generation of generic Land Surface Models (LSMs) that include the carbon cycle of the biosphere and represent vegetation growth provides a wealth of information on this issue.

In the framework of the ORACLE ANR project, CNRM has produced 150-yr (1950-2100) simulations over France of the biomass of various vegetation types (straw cereals, grasslands, broadleaf and coniferous forests) and of the soil water content associated to each of these vegetation types. The ISBA-A-gs generic LSM, able to work at various spatial scales (local to global), was used. Thirteen climatic simulations from the 4th IPCC assessment report, disaggregated at a spatial resolution of 8 km by 8 km, were used to drive the ISBA-A-gs model, over 191 grid-cells representing the main French agricultural and forest regions. Statistical methods were used to quantify the impact of climate change and the agreement between climate models between near future (NF) (2020-2049), far future (FF) (2070-2099) and a reference past period (1970-1999). Everywhere in France, the duration of dry (wet) periods within one year increases (decreases), up (down) to + (-) 30d in NF conditions. For all the vegetation types, leaf onset and the annual maximum LAI occur earlier. On the other hand, large regional discrepancies are simulated for the senescence period (e.g. earlier in western and southern France for broadleaf forests, later in eastern France) for both NF and FF. The length of the growing period is often more uncertain in FF than in NF in relation to differences in climate models. These simulations will be extended to the Euro-Mediterranean area and coupled with a hydrologic model. The new IPCC simulations will be used to complete this work.

 

ACRONYMS:

ORACLE : Opportunités et Risques pour les Agro-ecosystèmes et les forêts en réponse aux changements CLimatiquE, socio-économiques et politiques en France

ISBA-A-gs : Interactions Soil-Biosphere-Atmosphere model, including photosynthesis and vegetation growth

LAI : Leaf Area Index

Hydrological extremes, food security and agriculture in western Amazon

J. Ronchail (LOCEAN and Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Hydrological extremes, food security and agriculture in western Amazon

J. Ronchail (1) ; T. Schor (2) ; M. Sabot (3) ; JC. Espinoza (4) ; N. Filizola (5) ; G. Drapeau (6) ; JL. Guyot (7) ; JM. Martinez (8)
(1) LOCEAN and Université Paris Diderot, Paris, France; (2) Universidade Federal de Amazonas, Nepecab, Manaus, Brazil; (3) Univesité Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France; (4) Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru; (5) Universidade Federal de Amazonas, Lapa, Manaus, Brazil; (6) LOCEAN, Université Paris Diderot and PRODIG, Paris, France; (7) IRD, Lima, Peru; (8) IRD, GET Laboratory, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

The water level of the Amazon and of its tributaries varies significantly from one season to another. For instance, at Iquitos station (Peru), the water level varies from 18 meters in May-June to 8 meters in September-October. That is why, during the low-flow period, cultivating becomes possible and is important on the riverbanks and in the inundation plains.

Agricultural production in a family-based system on the riverbanks and inundation plains is very important in terms of guarantee of supply for food security. In order to understand the important relation between agriculture, food security and hydrological system some characteristics of the local agriculture in the Amazonian region located between Iquitos (Peru) and the triple frontier between Brazil, Peru and Colombia are first presented using results from field observations, survey and  data from the Peruvian and Brazilian Agricultural agencies.

Then,  information about the interannual variability (1980-2014) of the hydrological cycle of the Solimões River are presented: discussion and definition of the  dates of the beginning and of the end of the low-flow period, duration of the low flow period, velocity of the water level changes during the increasing and decreasing flow periods, presence of “false alarm” at the beginning or at the end of the dry and the wet period, … This part is developed using water level data from the national hydrological services of Peru and Brazil and from the Environmental Research Observatory SO-HYBAM (Geodynamical, hydrological and biogeochemical control of erosion/alteration and material transport in the Amazon basin).

Finally, as a shorter than usual length of the low flow season, a rapid increase of the water level, a “false” beginning of the low water season, etc. are hazards that may put at risk sowing and plant development, hydrological parameters are related to yield values seeking possible correlations between extreme events and food security in the region.

ICOS Atmsopheric Thematic Center

L. Rivier, (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

Abstract details
ICOS Atmsopheric Thematic Center

L. Rivier, (1) ; L. Hazan (1) ; O. Laurent, (2) ; T. Laurila (3) ; M. Ramonet (4) ; J. Tarniewicz (1) ; C. Yver-Kwok, (2) ; S. Karri (3) ; H. Aaltonen (3) ; O. Jossoud (1) ; A. Guemri (1) ; C. Garrec (1) ; C. Milcent (1) ; A. Abbaris (1) ; J. Helle, (5) ; C. Philippon (1) ; S. Delalande (1) ; N. Kachroudi (1) ; S. Ars (1)
(1) LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) FMI, Helsinki, Finland; (4) CNRS and Université de Versailles Saint Quentin, Lsce, Gif Sur Yvette, France; (5) LSCE, Cea/cnrs/uvsq, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Abstract content

ICOS is a recently-launched, world-class research infrastructure dedicated to the monitoring and improved understanding of carbon sources and sinks. It consists of complementary, harmonized networks of long-term monitoring stations focusing on Europe and adjacent regions. The ICOS networks will comprise about 40 operational atmospheric stations (measuring atmospheric composition in greenhouse gases and other core parameters), 40 ecosystem stations (measuring fluxes from ecosystems) and about 20 oceanic measurement platforms.

 

The networks are coordinated through a set of central facilities: three thematic centres respectively for atmospheric, ecosystem and ocean data, and a central analytical lab.The Atmospheric Thematic Center (ATC) has two main functions:

1.Operate the atmospheric data processing chains, going from data transmission from stations to the routine delivery of quality checked data-stream 

2.Carry out regular measurement technology survey, analysis and enable development of new sensors and their testing prior to field deployment in ICOS

 

The presentation will describe state of the art of atmospheric GHG measurement and data processing with a special focus on quality assessment. It will also present new measurement technique, like isotopic measurement, that can attribute GHG concentration changes to different emission sources.

Identifying future climate change hotspots over Southeast Asia

F. Cruz (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines)

Abstract details
Identifying future climate change hotspots over Southeast Asia

F. Cruz (1) ; J. Dado (2) ; K. Cheng Chua (1) ; E. Gozo (1) ; G. Narisma ()
(1) Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines; (2) Tokyo Metropolitan University, Department of geography, Hachioji, Japan

Abstract content

Southeast Asia is one of the regions most vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate in a globally warmer future. In this study, climate variables from multiple CMIP5 global climate model output have been analyzed to describe the spatial extent and magnitude of future changes over the region.  Potential climate change hotspots, i.e. areas indicating strong response to changes in climate, can therefore be identified. This is important for adaptation planning in the different sectors, including agriculture, on which the developing economies in this region are highly dependent.  Initial results show that in the 2030s under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, high changes in the mean climate are likely to occur over Indochina, a region described by high seasonality in rainfall.  On the other hand, significant changes in the extremes are noted over the Maritime Continent.  However, changes in the location and intensity of these hotspots may still occur depending on the time period and emissions scenario.

Identifying Hydro-climatological Contributions to Hydrological Drought Formation with Uncertainty in Satellite Datasets: An Examination over the Poyang Lake Basin

Y. Liu (Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China)

Abstract details
Identifying Hydro-climatological Contributions to Hydrological Drought Formation with Uncertainty in Satellite Datasets: An Examination over the Poyang Lake Basin

Y. Liu (1)
(1) Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China

Abstract content

Hydrological droughts are generally the combined consequences of hydro-climatological influences. Identification of the individual influences on drought formation is essential to effective drought prevention. The identification with the principle of water balance requires all the major hydro-climatological measures. However, it is impractical to measure all the components from ground observations. While satellite remote sensing now provides spatio-temporally consistent retrievals of the components over large regions, its relevant uncertainty often remains undocumented. The uncertainty may propagate into total water deficit which is a residual of water balance. It casts a shadow on the reliability of drought analysis. This study addresses the uncertainty for drought analysis, and proposes to use a signal-to-noise ratio for quantifying the reliability. The approach is examined with satellite datasets of evapotranspiration and soil moisture, in addition to station data of precipitation and river discharge, for the Poyang Lake Basin with an area of 162,000 km2 for the periods of 2001-2010. Satellite datasets are processed for the cases with and without field validation. Hydrological drought events are identified with river discharge data for each of five sub-basins within the basin. The validated satellite datasets are used to quantify hydro-climatological contributions to individual drought events. The contributions are then compared to those from the datasets without validation. The results show that the difference in quantified contribution varies from 5~40% for the individual events in each sub-basins between the two cases. The signal-to-noise ratio is generally higher than 2.8, indicating the robustness and usefulness of the satellite datasets in water balance analysis for identifying hydro-climatological contributions to drought formation. The findings provide an approach to addressing hydrological droughts from water balance analysis, especially valuable for studying droughts under climate change with satellite datasets with limited accuracy.

Impact of climate change and overexploitation in semi-arid areas on the water resources. Example of Essaouira Basin (Morocco)

S. Ouhamdouch (Cadi Ayyad University, Marrakech, Morocco)

Abstract details
Impact of climate change and overexploitation in semi-arid areas on the water resources. Example of Essaouira Basin (Morocco)

S. Ouhamdouch (1) ; M. Bahir (2) ; A. Souhel (3) ; M. Paula (4)
(1) Cadi Ayyad University, Geology, Marrakech, Morocco; (2) ENS Marrakech, Geology, Marrakech, Morocco; (3) ENS Marrakech, Marrakech, Morocco; (4) Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal

Abstract content

Abstract: The Maghreb countries Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia are affected by the climate change, which is manifested by the tendency to increased temperatures and decreased rainfall. This has several negative effects on natural resources such as water resources. Among them: (i) The scarcity of water resources. (ii) The increased salinization of soil and, consequently, the salinity of waters. (iii) The drought, which leads to soil erosion, which causes the silting of the dam and, consequently, the decrease in the rate of mobilization. Overexploitation of coastal aquifers and pollution vulnerability are among the main problems related to groundwater resources assessment and management in arid and semi-arid regions threatened by desertification being the only source for agricultural and public water supply. The  behaviour study of the aquifer system in the Essaouira basin (the object of our study) in the face of climate change, based on the interpretation of hydrochemical data (major elements), piezometric and isotopic (18O, 2H, 3H and 14C) was used to determine the degree of impact of climate change on aquifer system. The follow-up of the quality evolution of groundwater in the Essaouira Basin through the electrical conductivity and the chlorides concentration showed that this quality is in close relationship with the vagaries of the weather..Changes in groundwater levels in the study area, brings up these levels would decline over the years to rainfall deficit and would renew for excess. The use of the technique of isotopic tools showed that the recharge of this aquifer system is recent and carried out by the direct infiltration of rainwater.

Impact of Climate Change on Onset, Amount and Length of Rainy Season over West Africa as Simulated by COORDEX Models

E. Adefisan (Federal University of Technology, Akure, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Impact of Climate Change on Onset, Amount and Length of Rainy Season over West Africa as Simulated by COORDEX Models

E. Adefisan (1)
(1) Federal University of Technology, Akure, Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

The onset of rainfall signals the commencement of viable rainfed agricultural activities and it is therefore very essential for planning farm operations in West Africa. Impact of climate change on the rainfall onset dates (RODs), rainfall cessation dates (RCDs) and hence the length of rainy seasons (LRS) as well as the rainfall amount during the season over West Africa is therefore a welcome idea. The data used was from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Exercise (CORDEX-Africa) and comprises of daily rainfall for four of the participating regional climate models of scenario A1b of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The simulated data was divided into two with 1981-2000 serving as present and 2031-2050 representing the near future. RODs was found to be delayed by two weeks (14 days) over most part of West Africa and a delay of three weeks (21 days) over most part of Sierra Leone, Liberia, Guinea, western flank of Cote d`Ivoire and some parts of Mali. RCDs were seen to be earlier in the near future than present in most part of West Africa. LRS which is the difference between the RODs and RCDs show that there is a reduction of between 15 and 25 days over the areas mentioned earlier. There was an extension of about 15days over other areas between the coastline of West Africa and 15oN. The annual rainfall amount shows an increase over all high grounds of West Africa and the immediate environment as well as the coastline of West Africa. Apart from these, most West African sub-region experiences reduction in the annual rainfall amount ranging from 120mm to about 300mm. On a closer look of rainfall amount from June to September (JJAS) rainfall amount, it follows the same trend as that of the annual amount but with more significant reduction in the near future. From coast to about 6oN, there is an average reduction of between 0.2 to 0.6mm/day (24 to 73mm). From about 6oN to 14oN there is an increase in rainfall amount of about 0.7mm/day. There is a significant reduction of JJAS rainfall amount on the leeward side of Cameroonian’s Mountain of 1.4mm/day.

Impact of climate variability and change on meteorological droughts over Southern South America

J.A. Rivera (Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), Mendoza, Argentina)

Abstract details
Impact of climate variability and change on meteorological droughts over Southern South America

JA. Rivera (1) ; OC. Penalba, (2) ; D. Araneo, (1)
(1) Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), Programa Regional de Meteorología, Mendoza, Argentina; (2) Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA) - CONICET, Departamento de ciencias de la atmósfera y los océanos, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Abstract content

Droughts are perceived as one of the costliest and least understood natural disasters, given the difficulty in defining its beginning and end, its slow development and its multiple regional aspects. Southern South America (SSA) was no exception to this hazard, whose impacts were evident in the reduction in crop yields, reduced cattle products, streamflow deficiencies and consequently problems for hydroelectric power generation. This research addresses the observed spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and meteorological drought over SSA during the 20th century, and the expected impacts of climate change on these variables. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used as a short- and long-term drought indicator, given its suitability for the study region. Observed trends in the area affected by drought conditions were assessed through a non-linear approach based on the residual of the empirical mode decomposition, a recently proposed methodology which is robust in presence of non-stationary data. Trends indicate the existence of a low-frequency variability that modulates regional precipitation patterns at different temporal scales, and warns about possible future consequences in the social and economic sectors if trends towards an increase in the drought affected area continue. This non-linearity was also evident on the temporal behavior of other hydrometeorological variables, like the annual number of dry days over Argentina, and on the streamflow deficiencies over the central Andes and Patagonia. Moreover, links with decadal oscillations as the PDO were identified in the modulation of the decadal component of the annual cumulated deficit volume in the central Andes of Argentina.

The future assessment of precipitation and meteorological drought conditions was performed through a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble based on 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) forced under two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Changes in meteorological drought characteristics were identified by the difference for early (2011-2040) and late (2071-2100) 21st century values with respect to the 1979-2008 baseline. Future climate conditions are expected to modify the regional characteristics of meteorological droughts over SSA, but the range of uncertainty in the expected changes is high. A significant increase in the number of drought events for most of the 21st century sub-periods and scenarios is projected for the multi-model ensemble outputs. The mean duration of drought events will be shorter, with no significant changes in the severity of droughts and the occurrence of multi-decadal changes in the number of critical dry months is likely, although the significance in the changes depends on the region, future time horizon and scenario. These results overlap with a projected increase in precipitation over most of the regions, which has a strong seasonality and, therefore, will have some implications upon the future meteorological drought developments and the agricultural and hydrological practices in SSA. It is expected that the outcomes of this study will provide a measure of the likelihood of further drought changes under the CMIP5 framework, which was a key factor of the IPCC’s AR5.

Impact of future global climate and land use and land cover changes in Amazonian run-of-river hydropower plants

J. Tomasella (INPE, Cachoeira Paulista/SP, Brazil)

Abstract details
Impact of future global climate and land use and land cover changes in Amazonian run-of-river hydropower plants

J. Tomasella (1) ; D. Rodriguez (1) ; RRDCS. Von (1) ; GS. Mohor (1) ; JJL. Siqueira (1) ; LG. Lopes (1)
(1) INPE, CCST, Cachoeira Paulista/SP, Brazil

Abstract content

Brazilian strategic interest in Amazonia includes the development of hydropower to satisfy the country´s growing energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and economic development. Of the total amount invested in the Amazon until 2020, 37% will be allocated in the constructions of hydropower dams, which correspond to 45% of planned energy expansion during the period. Due to environmental constraints, hydropower dams under construction in Amazonia are run-of-river (ROR) type plants, thus is, with a limited storage reservoir to minimize the area of natural forest to be flooded. Although it is widely recognize that ROR plants dramatically reduce environmental local impacts compared to traditional large dams, they are subject to seasonal river flows. Considering that the Amazon Basin is characterized by high interannual variability, and have been recently affected by the occurrence of extreme droughts (for instance, 2005 and 2010), it is clear that the generation capacity of ROR plant could potentially be seriously compromise during extreme events. Besides this, IPCC scenarios indicate that climate change can seriously impact the hydrological regime South American rivers, which might also affect the distribution of biomes in South America due to the synergistic combination of impacts due to both land cover (deforestation, forest fires and fragmentation) and global climate changes. Therefore, the aim of this study was to critically assess how different global climate change scenarios associated with regional land-use and land-cover changes caused by deforestation could affect the power generation of run-of-rive power plants under construction in Amazonia. Power generation was analyze in the following ROR hydropower plants: Estreito, on the Tocantins River Basin, Santo Antônio dam, in the Madeira River Basin, Serra da Mesa in the Tapajós River Basin.

To achieve this goal, we calibrated the MHD-INPE hydrological model for the period 1970-1990 using hydrological, meteorological and soil data from different sources from Brazil, Bolivia and Peru. We analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as input. Climate change projections produced by different climate models were used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest conversion to pasture for the period from 2011-2099. Finally we assessed the impacts of climate change on annual energy production based on the differences in the power duration curve – PDC produced by each scenario. The PDC of each scenario was estimated using hydraulic head and efficiency of each plant constrained by the minimum flow, under which the plant cannot operate, and the plant installed capacity. The use of PDCs allow to analyze the impacts not only of the annual average discharge, but also the effects of seasonal changes of climate. Despite of the differences among climate projections, results show that the climate change projections lead to a decreasing annual energy production and an increasing idle time at hydropower plants. Even when it is not possible to conclude about which projected climate scenario is the more appropriated, this work suggests to assess climate change impacts on energy production through an exploratory analyses, evaluating the robustness of the plant design under several plausible scenarios.

Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Water Resources in the Context of Climate Change (A Case Study of Urban Area through Multi-Temporal Remotely Sensed Data and GIS)

K.N. Joshi (Institute of Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur, Rajasthan, India)

Abstract details
Impact of Rapid Urbanization on Water Resources in the Context of Climate Change (A Case Study of Urban Area through Multi-Temporal Remotely Sensed Data and GIS)

KN. Joshi (1)
(1) Institute of Institute of Development Studies, Natural Resources Management and Environment (Remote Sensing), Jaipur, Rajasthan, India

Abstract content

One of the many environmental problems incurred by climate change is creating a negative impact on water resources in urban areas. The effects of climate change on water quality and availability are significant, including shortages and contamination that directly affect health of people and proper functioning of urban development and government. Unplanned growth of urban area further deteriorates the situation. The present paper provides an overview to some of the effects of rainfall variability due to climate change coupled with urbanization on water quality as well as quantity in Jaipur urban Agglomerates, the most populous area in the state of Rajasthan (India). The study has been carried out using Indian remote sensing data, Survey of India topographical sheets and GIS techniques.

During the course of study, a series of thematic maps covering climatic parameters and anthropogenic activities have been prepared to depict the changes in land use pattern, surface hydrology, geo-hydro-morphology, rainfall pattern and its impact on urban water resources. It was found that increasing pressure of population and un-systematic anthropogenic activities have made negative impact on water resources. It encroached upon lakes, rivers, streams, and ponds etc in the vicinity of urban area. As a result, out of total 518 rivulets in urban area and surrounding, 13 first order , 37 second order and 10 are of third order stream are completely blocked by settlements (Total 60). ❖Out of 2600 wells, 1116 well/tube wells have stopped recharging due to increase in pavement area between years 1986 to 2003. :• Seven fresh water reservoirs have dried-up which were supplying drinking water to Jaipur city •The surface drainage network of rain water has been converted into municipal sewerage :• Local source of water supply from surface as well as ground is closed due to scarcity of water •Recharge of ground water has stopped due to increased pavement area for urban development like infrastructure development, industrial development and other urban development activities.

Finally, it is suggested that by using remote sensing and GIS technique one can prepare an integrated plan for urban development in which surface water bodies can be protected which in turn would take care to recharge ground water and also provide the surface water in decentralized manner in the urban area.

Impacts of climate change in epicontinental water systems of Mexico

P. Valdespino (Posgrado en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Mexico DF, Mexico)

Abstract details
Impacts of climate change in epicontinental water systems of Mexico

P. Valdespino (1) ; J. Alcocer, (2) ; G. Vilaclara, (3) ; O. Escolero, (4) ; LI. Falcón, (5) ; M. Mazari, (6) ; J. Ramírez-Zierold, (7) ; M. Merino-Ibarra, (7)
(1) Posgrado en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, Mexico DF, Mexico; (2) FES Iztacala, UNAM, Edo. de México, Mexico; (3) Posgrado en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, UNAM, Mexico, DF, Mexico; (4) Instituto de Geología, UNAM, Mexico DF, Mexico; (5) Instituto de Ecología, UNAM, Mexico DF, Mexico; (6) Instituto de Ecología, UNAM, Mexico, DF, Mexico; (7) Instituto de Ciencias del Mar y Limnología, UNAM, Mexico, DF, Mexico

Abstract content

Continental aquatic systems in Mexico exhibit a high vulnerability to climate change. In particular, variation in the patterns of precipitation and drought associated to climate change threatens both: a) the availability and quality of freshwater in the vast arid extension of the country (North and Center Mexico) and b) the population and infrastructure in the Southern region o the country, were heavy rains cause severe flood events. Aquifer overexploitation is also a crescent problem, associated to a fast growing population in the central highlands and to potential pollution in the karstic Yucatan peninsula, where groundwater is the only source of freshwater.

The effects of climate change on Mexican inland waters are mainly related to five processes: 1) changes in the water level of the systems and associated ecological impacts, 2) changes in the thermal structure and mixing regimes of lakes and reservoirs, 3) increased trophic state and intensification of hypoxia, 4) eutrophication and toxic algal blooms, and 5) increased respiration that turns the metabolic balance towards net heterotrophy. In particular, the processes implied in driving system shifts from sinks to sources of atmospheric carbon in tropical inland waters are discussed, although the data to build these analyses are still scarce and heterogeneous. We outline that research on tropical cyanobacteria metabolic treats may provide relevant elements to understand the increasingly threat of noxious phytoplankton blooms.

Here we highlight the research lines that need to be reinforced in order to create the strategies for preservation and management of freshwater in a sustainable way: 1) carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus fluxes should be estimated in ecosystemic to basin scales, and should be incorporated into long term studies of water quality, 2) pollutant assessment as well as water treatment programs must increase significantly (only 37% of the Mexican municipalities have water treatment plants), and 3) systematic monitoring programs should be included in country-scale planning.

Diverse social issues (e.g. inequity, corruption, security and drug dealing) threaten the possibility of coping with the challenges that climate change involve for continental aquatic systems in Mexico.

Impacts of climate change on the performance indexes of a water resource system: A case study of Boura reservoir in Burkina Faso

T. Fowe (International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering, Kadiogo, Burkina Faso)

Abstract details
Impacts of climate change on the performance indexes of a water resource system: A case study of Boura reservoir in Burkina Faso

T. Fowe (1) ; B. Ibrahim (2) ; JE. Paturel (3) ; H. Karambiri (1)
(1) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering, Hydraulic department, Kadiogo, Burkina Faso; (2) West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Competence Center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) IRD, HydroSciences Montpellier, Abdijan, Ivory Coast

Abstract content

In developing regions like Africa, availability and access to freshwater largely determines patterns of economic growth and social development. Burkina Faso, as others Sahelo-Sudanian countries pledged for some decades to control water resources after the severe droughts that occurred during the 1970s and 1980s through the construction of small reservoirs. Thus, thousands of small reservoirs dot the landscape and they are used for multiple purposes with especially irrigation in order to increase food production. The Boura reservoir, located in the southern of Burkina Faso, is a representative pilot site of many small reservoirs in the Volta Basin in West Africa. The ungauged catchment area upstream of the Boura dam of about 150 km2 is lying to the Centre West Region, Burkina Faso and Upper West Region, Ghana. This study aims to assess the performance indexes such as reliability, resilience and vulnerability of the Boura reservoir under the climate change conditions.

The methodology is organized in steps: (i) Firstly, climate change scenarios for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 relative to the reference period 1971-2000 were projected by using the outputs of regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre Atmosphere model, version 4) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5); (ii) Secondly, the impact of climate change was then investigated on the input runoff of the Boura reservoir by using the hydrological model GR4J (daily lumped four-parameter) for the future periods and also on the crop water requirement of the irrigation schemes downstream the Boura dam; (iii) Thirdly, the simulation of reservoir performance in the delivery of agricultural water demand was implemented by using the water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model.

The analysis of the inter-annual average changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration (PET) between the future two 30 year horizons (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) and the reference period (1971-2000) showed upward trends with increases up to +23% for rainfall and +9% for PET, dependent on the RCP emission scenario (RCP4.5 or RCP8.5).

These projected changes in rainfall and PET will cause higher inter-annual variability of future inflow to the Boura reservoir compared to the reference period, necessitating increased reservoir capacity to meet future irrigation water demands. However, the performance indexes of system revealed that failures in agricultural water demand satisfaction would be observed in the future periods. In terms of overall performance, the reliability and vulnerability indexes decreased in the future relative to the reference period, especially for the socio-economic development scenario with an increase in agricultural water demand under climate change conditions.                                             This approach enable a comprehensive understanding of the functioning of a water storage reservoir under future climate scenarios and can also be a robust tool to predict future challenges faced by water supply systems under  climate change conditions.

Impacts of natural external forcings on the Amazon regime rainfall modulated by the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the past millennium

L. Prado (Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil)

Abstract details
Impacts of natural external forcings on the Amazon regime rainfall modulated by the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the past millennium

L. Prado (1) ; I. Wainer, (1)
(1) Universidade de Sao Paulo, Instituto Oceanográfico, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Abstract content

Tropical climates are strongly influenced by the moisture influx from the adjacent oceans. In 2005 and 2010, dryness events observed in the Amazon Basin were strongly related to positive anomalies of sea surface temperature over the tropical North Atlantic. These changes in the Amazon water cycle had important consequences to the population, economy and ecosystems. In recent past climates, there is evidence of drier conditions in the Amazon Basin during the Little Ice Age (1400 to 1700 Common Era, C.E.) and wetter conditions during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950 to 1250 C.E.). These periods were associated with variations of natural external forcings, as the solar and the volcanic forcings. The variability of tropical oceans is influenced by the amount of energy received by the Sun and also by atmospheric changes due to volcanic eruptions, because both consist of radiative forcings. As the Amazon Basin moisture influx is related to the tropical Atlantic conditions, any changes in this ocean will impact on the Amazon rainfall regime. Here we will present the effects of the solar variability and the volcanism of the past millennium (850-1850 C.E.) on the tropical Atlantic conditions and consequent impacts on the Amazon rainfall regime. We will use single-forcing experiments monthly outputs from the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Earth System Model (NCAR-CESM) to the past millennium, when natural external forcings prevailed over the anthropogenic forcing. Air-sea interaction processes in the tropical Atlantic will be estimated from the model outputs, and then related with changes in the rainfall regime over the Amazon Basin. These results will contribute to a better understanding of the natural forcings on the tropical climate.

Integration of climate change education into school: A case study in Da Nang City, Viet Nam

T. Thi My Thi (Ha Noi University of Natural Resource and Environment, Ha Noi, Vietnam)

Abstract details
Integration of climate change education into school: A case study in Da Nang City, Viet Nam

T. Thi My Thi (1) ; P. Chau (2)
(1) Ha Noi University of Natural Resource and Environment, Department of Climate Change and Sustainable Developement, Ha Noi, Vietnam; (2) Department of Education and Training, Da Nang, Vietnam

Abstract content

Extensive damages caused by climate change are being reported daily all over the world, especially in developing countries like Viet Nam, where many people live in poverty, lack of infrastructure, lack of education, and limited access to technologies. The level of damages is highly dependent on the capacity of communities and individuals to response to climate change. Thus raising people awareness on climate risks, providing them with knowledge on local adaptation, and building their capacity to be resilient are the ultimate goals of climate change education (CCE). In order to find out appropriate approaches to promote climate change education in the specific context of Vietnamese education system, this research concentrates on two key important aspects including educational governance and educational activities. Educational governance includes activities related to educational management, policies, guidance, processes and decision-making on the application of climate change adaptation. Educational activities mentions to all teaching and learning activities in school, which target school students. The objective of the study is to maximize effectiveness of educational governance and educational activities in a way that help to facilitate and sustain climate change education in Viet Nam.

In the scope of this study, a case from Da Nang City will be presented. Da Nang is a coastal city of Viet Nam, which located in the central region. The city is considered as the largest education center of Central Vietnam and the third largest in the country. It is in top five provinces have the highest literacy rate and net enrolment rates at primary level. However, being a coastal city with three quarters of territory made up of hills and mountains, Da Nang is prone to frequent typhoons and heavy rainfall causing widespread flooding. In the last 10 years (2000 to 2010) there have been 21 typhoons directly hitting Da Nang with an average of two typhoons annually. In 2009, Typhoon Ketsana (Figure 4.17) directly hit south of Da Nang and left eight people dead; ninety-six injured, and damages costing 495 billion VND (about 25 million USD). In October 2013, Da Nang City was strongly hit by the typhoons Nari, which made landfall in Danang and Quang Nam areas with a Category 1 level on 15 Oct. It is reported that there was 11 injuries, 122 houses collapsed, 5449 house damaged/unroofed, 13 public buildings damaged. Aside from floods and typhoons, Da Nang was also impacted by droughts, river-bank and coastal erosion, and saline intrusion. Under the impacts of increased temperature and change of precipitation, droughts in Da Nang have become prolonged with more severe intensity. 

Within this context, the Da Nang Department of Education and Training (DoET) has focused on preparing schools to reduce the impacts of climate change through improvement of CCE in school. The city has taken many steps foward such as developing plan for CCE, carrying out teacher training, strengthening the physical conditions of the majority of its schools located in vulnerable areas. However, at school level, the School Management Board appears to have taken very few steps towards reducing losses from disasters and ensuring the safety of their students. The performance of CCE in schools, in particular at primary level, remains inadequate. The capacity to respond to climate related disasters of school children and teachers is low, particularly the activities to return to normal teaching program after the disasters. This results in educational interruption and affecting educational quality.

By giving the overall pictures of existing conditions of CCE in Da Nang, it provides important insights to enhance the implementation of CCE into school through integrated approach. The result from the study shows that a coalescence of three approaches including textbook driven approach, symbiosis approach, and community-oriented approach will help to advance the level of CCE in Da Nang. The framework on how to consolidate these approaches in the application of CCE in school will be proposed. 

Key findings on groundwater and climate change from the UNESCO IHP GRAPHIC network

M. Leblanc (University of Avignon, Avignon, France)

Abstract details
Key findings on groundwater and climate change from the UNESCO IHP GRAPHIC network

M. Leblanc (1) ; J. Gurdak, (2) ; A. Aureli, (3) ; T. Carvalho Resende (3) ; G. Faedo, (3) ; R. Taylor (4)
(1) University of Avignon, Department of hydrogeology, umr emmah, Avignon, France; (2) San Francisco State University, Department of earth and climate sciences, San Francisco, United States of America; (3) UNESCO, Division of water sciences, Paris, France; (4) University College London, Department of geography, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Groundwater is an essential resource. It provides baseflow to lakes and rivers and supports numerous terrestrial ecosystems during dry spells. Today groundwater is also paramount to freshwater and food supply. Globally it covers the demands for around 36% of domestic water and 40% of irrigation water requirements. Groundwater is often regarded as a key resource for adaptation strategies to climate change. Aquifers often represent large stores of slowly evolving water. Groundwater has generally a lower variability and vulnerability than surface water. Groundwater resources are consequently more resilient to drought and the impact of human activities than surface water.

 

Under the International Hydrological Program (IHP), the UNESCO is home to a scientific network examining the relationships between groundwater resources and global change, called GRAPHIC (Groundwater Resources Assessment under the Pressures of Humanity and Climate Change). The GRAPHIC community is composed of academics, researchers, government employees, and professionals from the water industry located across 34 countries. By encouraging and coordinating international collaboration, GRAPHIC aims to strengthen global research efforts on groundwater impacts from climate change and adaptation strategies. This presentation provides a geographic synopsis of progress made and lessons learnt to date by the GRAPHIC network.

 

Through a number of case studies in a variety of climatic and geologic settings, GRAPHIC has identified challenges that are important when considering the inclusion of groundwater in climate change adaptation strategies. Though generally less responsive than surface water, groundwater can still be substantially impacted by climate change. The magnitude of this impact can vary greatly from region to region. At the same time, compounding effects from other global anthropogenic changes also impact groundwater. It is possible to identify a number of hotspots where groundwater may be particularly vulnerable to climate change and will require careful sustainable management.

 

Key lessons learnt from GRAPHIC network include the need to account for groundwater in 1) monitoring of freshwater resources; 2) climate models; 3) land surface and water models; and 4) the management of transboundary basins. There is a great need to include and more carefully consider groundwater into climate change adaptation schemes and strategies.

 

Future activities will include, amongst others, applying satellite gravimetry for evaluating trends in groundwater storage across large transboundary aquifers (TBAs) in regions where data access is very limited either because of data scarcity or accessibility. Such activities will contribute to establishing water budgets at aquifer scale for better-informed water management decisions and policies.

L'eau virtuelle des produits agricoles d'importation : Un moyen de contrecarrer le problème du manque d'eau en Algérie

B. Mouhouche (Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique (ENSA) ex INA, Alger, Algeria)

Abstract details
L'eau virtuelle des produits agricoles d'importation : Un moyen de contrecarrer le problème du manque d'eau en Algérie

B. Mouhouche (1)
(1) Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique (ENSA) ex INA, Génie Rural (Hydraulique Agricole), Alger, Algeria

Abstract content

L'eau virtuelle des produits agricoles d'importation :

Un moyen de contrecarrer le problème du manque d'eau en Algérie

 

B. Mouhouche

 

ENSA ex INA, El-Harrach, 16200 Alger

Laboratoire de Maîtrise de l'Eau en Agriculture

 

Résumé

 

L’Algérie est classée parmi les 17 pays qui souffrent le plus du manque d’eau à travers le monde.

En effet, avec moins de 300 m3/habitant/an d’eau renouvelable, l’Algérie dispose de moins de 30% du seuil théorique de rareté fixé par la Banque Mondiale à 1000 m3 /hab./an.

Etant dans l'impossibilité d'étendre sa SAU et/ou d'augmenter les surfaces irriguées, pour combler le déficit alimentaire, l'Algérie a recours à des importations massives de produits alimentaires, particulièrement les céréales et leurs dérivés.

Ajouté à cela les produits agricoles non-alimentaires.

Ces importations, bien qu'elles représentent une hémorragie financière très importante pour le pays, elles ont au moins un aspect positif représenté par les quantités impressionnantes d'eau virtuelles qu'elles procurent à l'Algérie estimées à plus de 40 milliards de m3 pour l'année 2012.

C'est dans ce cadre que s'inscrit notre étude dans laquelle nous essayons de quantifier ces quantités d'eau virtuelles qui contribuent grandement à soulager temporairement le pays de son problème de manque d'eau.   

 

Mots clés : Le manque d'eau, la sécurité alimentaire, ressources hydriques, eau virtuelle, Algérie.

 

Summary

 

VIRTUAL WATER OF IMPORT AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS :

MEAN DECREASE THE PROBLEM OF WATER SHORTAGE IN ALGERIA

Algeria is ranked among the 17 countries that suffer most from lack of water worldwide.Indeed, with less than 300 m3 / capita / year of renewable water, Algeria has less than 30% of the theoretical scarcity threshold set by the World Bank in 1000 m3 /hab./an.

Being unable to expand its agricultural land UAA and / or increase irrigated areas, to fill the food gap, Algeria resort to massive food imports, especially cereals and their derivatives.

Added to these non-food agricultural products.

These imports, although they represent a major financial drain for the country, they have at least one positive aspect represented by the virtual impressive amounts of water they provide to Algeria estimated at over 40 billions m3 2012.

It is in this framework that guides our study in which we try to quantify these virtual amounts of water that contribute greatly to temporarily relieve the country of its water shortage problem.

Keywords: Water scarcity, food security, water resources, virtual water, Algeria.

Mainstreaming climate change into fisheries and aquatic sciences curriculum and training in tertiary academic institutions

J. Efitre (Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda)

Abstract details
Mainstreaming climate change into fisheries and aquatic sciences curriculum and training in tertiary academic institutions

J. Efitre (1) ; R. Ogutu-Ohwayo (2) ; W. Okello (3) ; K. Odongkara (4) ; V. Natugonza (2) ; L. Musinguzi (5)
(1) Department of Biological Sciences, Makerere university, Kampala, Uganda; (2) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI, Jinja, Uganda; (3) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), Jinja, Uganda; (4) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI), , Jinja, Uganda; (5) National Fisheries Resources Research Institute (NaFIRRI, Fish habitat Management, Jinja, Uganda

Abstract content

Fisheries resources in Uganda contribute to food security, employment, income and livelihoods but are threatened by over-exploitation, pollution, habitat degradation, invasive species and climate variability and change.  However, climate variability and change has been little studied yet it is adding to or interacting with other stressors to affect riparian ecosystems, fish habitats, aquatic productivity, fish yields and livelihoods.  There is inadequate knowledge, training and institutional capacity to address climate change in fisheries in Uganda as in most African countries. There is therefore need to build capacity through mainstreaming climate change into the curriculum of tertiary training and research institutions.  International, regional and national policies have recommended incorporating climate change into education and training from primary to tertiary institutions.  Some training institutions in Uganda have curricula in basic and applied fisheries and freshwater science but many of these do not address issues of climate variability and change. This curriculum and manual was therefore developed to address this shortfall.  Its overall objective is to mainstream climate change in inland freshwater systems and fisheries.  The specific objectives are to: 1) develop a training curriculum and manual that will be used to train students in climate change and fisheries in tertiary education and research institutions and 2) mainstream climate change into the undergraduate and graduate fisheries and aquaculture curricula. This is expected to build scientific and technical capacity to: 1) anticipate and evaluate changes in climate and its impacts; 2) communicate information to stakeholders to enable them design, test and implement adaptation strategies and mitigation measures; 3) increase human resource capacity through reviewing and strengthening the national education system; and 4) promote science and technology as stipulated in Uganda’s National Development Plan (NDP) and Agriculture Sector Development Strategy and Investment Plan (DSIP). The manual is organized into six modules namely: Non-climate factors which together with climate change affect natural resources;  Introduction to climate change; Climate change and physical, chemical and ecological properties and productivity of inland aquatic ecosystems and fisheries;  Climate change and aquaculture; Socio-economic impacts, adaptations and mitigations; and Policy, legal and institutional frameworks.  Each module consists of units to be delivered through lectures, brainstorming sessions, case studies, field visits, group discussions, computer exercises and seminar presentations.  The training curriculum and manual was completed in 2014 and is ready for pretesting in tertiary academic institutions in Uganda.

 

Modeling of maximal spring flood runoff on rivers in Ukraine with using CCSM3 and HADCM3 for the medium (2030-2050) and long term (2070 and beyond)

V. Ovcharuk (Odessa State Environmental University, Odessa, Ukraine)

Abstract details
Modeling of maximal spring flood runoff on rivers in Ukraine with using CCSM3 and HADCM3 for the medium (2030-2050) and long term (2070 and beyond)

V. Ovcharuk (1)
(1) Odessa State Environmental University, Hydrometeorological Institute, Odessa, Ukraine

Abstract content

 Currently very relevant is the issue of changing the water cycle under the influence of global climate change. The main area of research is the study of the water balance components in general, such as  surface runoff of rivers, underground flow, evaporation, etc. However, as the events of recent years, the quantity and quality of extreme events, such as catastrophic floods also significantly associated with climate change. Thus, the study of quantitative characteristics of maximum river flow rare probability of exceedance as well as their forecast for the near future (2030-2050) and long term (2070 and beyond) is an important scientific problem of modern science. The authors of this study are propose a variant of calculation formula of maximum river flow, that allows, on the one hand to count the maximum water flow rare exceedance probability (P=1,3,5,10%), and on the other hand - to predict possible changes in the values obtained using the data different models.  In order to obtain predictive values of temperature and rainfall in the plains of Ukraine in the study were using simulation results of two different global climate models- HadCM3 (Meteorological Service UK MetOffice), and climate models (CCSM3) from National Center for atmospheric Research (NCAR, USA).  The next task was to study the relationship between the predicted values (eg, annual precipitation) and calculated values - maximum snow supplies and precipitation during the flood. For the plain territory of Ukraine on data 103 weather stations (for maximum snow supplies) and 315 weather stations (for the precipitation) were obtained relevant dependencies that have high correlation coefficients, indicating the possibility of direct incorporation of climate change on flood runoff. The simulation results are presented in the form of the coefficients of runoff change. The value of the coefficient of runoff changes taken equal to 1.0 for current situation, respectively, the value of this ratio is greater than 1.0 indicate a possible increase in runoff, and less than 1.0 - the decrease. Comparing the results for different scenarios for the model CCSM3, we can mention that for the period 2039  three scenarios (A1B, B1, A2) give more or less similar results - no significant decrease in runoff spring flood in northern areas, and significant - in  the southern. Conversely scenario COMMIT provides for increased discharges  spring flood on rivers in zone of sufficient moisture (basins of Western Bug, Pripyat, Desna, Dnieper) by 10-20%, and on the rivers in the  zone insufficient moisture  (basins of Southern Bug and Seversky Donets) - reduction to 20%. As for Azov region rivers, for them, as well as in other scenarios expected to reduce runoff spring flood more than 50%. Analyzing the forecasting period from 2069 to 2099, it should be noted that the results differ significantly for different scenarios. So scenarios A1B and A2 on 2099 are predicting practical disappearance spring flood (water content decrease from 100 to 80%) on the rivers zone insufficient moisture, and to areas of sufficient moisture - reducing runoff by more than 50%. Slightly different results provide scenarios B1 and COMMIT. The scenario B1 for the period until 2069 predict is a gradual decrease in water resources of spring flood (from 20% to 50%), excepting to rivers Azov region, and on the period up to 2099 - a slight increase in the relative  to  2069 for the rivers in area of sufficient moisture and stabilization -  for rivers in  area insufficient moisture. For  rivers  Azov region  are predicting maximum loss of runoff in the spring - up about 80%. The scenario COMMIT, which implies that the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases will be maintained at 2000 levels, predicted gradual increase in water content of rivers in northern regions from 10 to 20%, and a slight decline - for the rivers of the southern regions (10 to 20%). For  rivers Azov region spring flood runoff  will decrease by 50% to 2099.As already noted, the calculations of "climate amendments" were held in two models - CCSM3 and HADCM3. Simulation results for HADCM3 very different from model of CCSM3. Almost in all scenarios are projected sharp increase in water content (2.5-3 times) for the period until 2039, and then the same sharp decrease (especially for scenarios A2 and A1B) water content spring flood. The scenario B1 is predicted  stabilization of water resources, ie, till 2099  coefficient  of change of almost all rivers except the Azov region, is 1.0. As for the script COMMIT, there is projected to increase runoff of spring flood  from 1.75 to 3.5 times by 2069.

Modeling the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan storm surge: Effect of wave coupling, offshore winds, and tidal level

P.H. Bilgera (The Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines)

Abstract details
Modeling the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan storm surge: Effect of wave coupling, offshore winds, and tidal level

PH. Bilgera (1) ; C. Villanoy, (1) ; O. Cabrera, (1)
(1) The Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

Abstract content

Super Typhoon Haiyan, with wind speeds exceeding 300 km h-1 generated a storm surge in San Pedro Bay reaching heights of more than 6m in Tacloban City. Severe winds and storm surge heights caused catastrophic structural damage and casualties. Delft Dashboard (DDB), an open-source standalone Matlab based graphical user interface, was used to develop a coupled flow and wave storm surge model to understand the Typhoon Haiyan storm surge development and propagation. Model results corroborated by field observations showed that as the storm center entered Leyte Gulf, strong northerly winds prevailing on the northern part of San Pedro Bay caused sea level to recede by 1-2m. This was followed by the development of the surge off the towns of Palo and Tanauan. This surge then propagated northwards to Tacloban and Basey as the winds shifted to the north when the storm center made landfall. Various idealized simulations were also designed to determine the effect of wave coupling, offshore winds, and tidal phase, with results highlighting importance of physical processes such as wave dissipation, wind-forced flow, and non-linear tide and surge interactions.

Monitoring the Climate of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere with Radio Occultation Data

U. Foelsche (University of Graz, Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, Graz, Austria)

Abstract details
Monitoring the Climate of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere with Radio Occultation Data

U. Foelsche (1) ; B. Scherllin-Pirscher (2) ; J. Danzer, (2) ; F. Ladstädter (2) ; AK. Steiner (3) ; G. Kirchengast (2)
(1) University of Graz, Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology, Graz, Austria; (2) University of Graz, Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, Graz, Austria; (3) Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria

Abstract content

The Radio Occultation (RO) technique has originally been developed in the 1960s for the study of planetary atmospheres and ionospheres. Accurate RO measurements of the Earth’s atmosphere became feasible in the 1990s, with the precise radio signals of the GPS satellite system (guaranteed by on-board atomic clocks). A few hundred times per day, a satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) sees one of the GPS satellites setting or rising behind the Earth’s horizon. In this “occultation” geometry, the GPS signals have to pass through the Earth’s atmosphere and they are characteristically influenced (slowed and bent), depending on the density of the atmosphere. The respective motion of the satellites provides a scan through the atmosphere. Accurate measurements of the change in the GPS signal (onboard the LEO satellite) therefore allow to reconstruct the atmospheric density and, subsequently, profiles of pressure as well as temperature. RO measurements can be performed during day and night, over oceans and land, and even inside clouds. During the last few years, RO measurements have been increasingly used by weather centers around the globe, and they a surprisingly large positive impact on the quality of atmospheric analyses (which are used as starting points for weather forecasts).

RO data a very well suited for climate applications, since they do not require external calibration and only short-term measurement stability over the occultation event duration (1 – 2 min), which is provided by the atomic clocks onboard the GPS satellites. With this “self-calibration”, it is possible to combine data from different sensors and different occultation missions without need for inter-calibration and overlap (which is extremely hard to achieve for conventional satellite data).

Using the same retrieval for all datasets we obtained monthly refractivity and temperature climate records from multiple radio occultation satellites, which are consistent within 0.05 % and 0.05 K in almost any case (taking global averages over the altitude range 10 km to 30 km). Longer-term average deviations are even smaller. Even though the RO record is still comparatively short, its high quality already allows to see statistically significant temperature trends in the lower stratosphere.

 

Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System

E.H.M. Ahmed (Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, Cairo, Egypt)

Abstract details
Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System

EHM. Ahmed (1)
(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable development, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract content

The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the world’s largest known fossil water aquifer system. It is located underground in the Eastern end of the Sahara Desert and spans the political boundaries of four countries in north-eastern Africa, it covers a land area under boarders for Egypt, Libya, Sudan and Chad. The geographical position between latitude 14°-33° north; longitude 19°-34° east. It contains and stored water volume 150.000 km2.

 

Many studies were made looking for the hydro geological setting of the area's aquifer; its results indicated that litho logical characteristics and tectonic settings are having a substantial effect on groundwater flow patterns and the area's overall aquifer potentiality.

 

Many surface bodies and groundwater traverse boundaries with no restrictions; any action which may be caused by one country could affect the water resources, and also could vary in significant consequences to the quality or quantity of water in another country.

 

In sub-Saharan Africa, freshwater withdrawals for agriculture are less than in Asia, Europe and North America. Also, estimation of freshwater demand assume annual withdrawals for irrigate and industry which are 20 times that required for domestic water use. Groundwater in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa can play a strategic role in adapting to changing freshwater availability and improving food production and security through groundwater-fed irrigation.

 

 

The actual withdrawal rates as follows; Egypt draw 1029 Million m3/yr; Libya 851 Million m3/yr; Sudan 406 Million m3/yr and Chad Million m3/yr. There’re two different systems because of different water bearing strata; The Nubian Aquifer System (NAS), the second system is the Post Nubian Aquifer System (PNAS).

 

One of the great project that consumption a huge amounts of Nubian Aquifer Groundwater that made by Libya and called “The Great River”, which be constructed on 1980. Withdraw water for municipal, industrial and agricultural use should be enough to produce adequate water and food to meet the countries own needs, it reduces the dependency on imports from foreign market.

 

So, we have to manage and implement a good convention for states that sharing in the same aquifer to control their draw and to implement a good plan to recharge the same aquifer using floods and other resources.

Observing Climate Variability and Change with GPS Radio Occultation

A.K. Steiner (Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria)

Abstract details
Observing Climate Variability and Change with GPS Radio Occultation

AK. Steiner (1) ; B. Scherllin-Pirscher (1) ; F. Ladstädter (1) ; L. Brunner (1) ; M. Schwärz (1) ; R. Biondi (1) ; J. Fritzer (1) ; J. Schwarz (1) ; U. Foelsche (2) ; G. Kirchengast (1)
(1) Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; (2) Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria

Abstract content

Overall agreement on global warming of the troposphere and cooling of the stratosphere exists from conventional observations. However, uncertainty in trend rates and their vertical structure limits the ability to draw robust and consistent inferences about long-term trends, a key issue as stated in the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Monitoring atmospheric variability and climate change requires climate data records which are continuous and homogeneous, long-term stable, and traceable to standards of the international system of units (SI). The uncertainty of essential climate variables, such as temperature, must be smaller than the signals expected from long-term change.

Radio Occultation (RO) observations based on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals meet these requirements. The traceability to fundamental time standards with precise atomic clocks assures a long-term stable and consistent data record with global coverage and all-weather utility. RO data are available from 2001 onwards. Information on error characteristics is provided as well. Data products comprise vertical profiles and gridded climatological fields of key atmospheric variables including bending angle, refractivity, pressure, geopotential height, temperature, and specific humidity. Derived quantities such as tropopause parameters or geostrophic winds are also available. Highest quality and vertical resolution (about 0.5 km to 1.5 km) is delivered over the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, offering the distinct advantage to assess the vertical thermodynamic structure.

We present an overview on the accomplishments and diverse applications of the RO record for monitoring climate variability and climate change in the atmosphere. Results show the ability of RO to capture the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), atmospheric waves and thermal tides, and extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones with unprecedented vertical resolution. Despite of the relatively short RO record, its utility for climate change detection is demonstrated as a global climate observing system. Current and future challenges are discussed for the establishment of an RO climate data record, which will contribute to improving our knowledge on atmospheric structure and trends.

On increasing global temperatures: 77 years after Callendar

E. Hawkins (University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
On increasing global temperatures: 77 years after Callendar

E. Hawkins (1) ; P. Jones, (2)
(1) University of Reading, Dept. of meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom; (2) University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom

Abstract content

In 1938, Guy Stewart Callendar was the first person to demonstrate that the Earth's land surface was warming. Callendar also suggested that the production of carbon dioxide by the combustion of fossil fuels was responsible for much of this modern change in climate. It is now 77 years since Callendar's landmark study and we demonstrate that his global land temperature estimates agree remarkably well with more recent analyses.

OneGeology – A distributed data system that enables access to up-to-date global geoscience data

K. Marko (OneGeology, Keyworth, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
OneGeology – A distributed data system that enables access to up-to-date global geoscience data

K. Marko (1) ; D. Tim (2) ; F. Robida (3) ; H. Matt (2) ; A. Lee (4)
(1) OneGeology, Keyworth, United Kingdom; (2) BGS, Keyworth, United Kingdom; (3) BRGM, Orleans, France; (4) Arizona Geological Survey, Tucson, United States of America

Abstract content

OneGeology is an initiative of Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) around the globe that dates back to Brighton, UK in 2007. Since then OneGeology has been a leader in developing geological online map data using a new international standard – a geological exchange language known as the ‘GeoSciML’ (currently version 3.2 exists, which enables instant interoperability of the data). Increased use of this new language allows geological data to be shared and integrated across the planet with other organisations. One of very important goals of OneGeology was a transfer of valuable know-how to the developing world, hence shortening the digital learning curve. In autumn 2013 OneGeology was transformed into a Consortium with a clearly defined governance structure, making its structure more official, its operability more flexible and its membership more open where in addition to GSO also to other type of organisations that manage geoscience data can join and contribute. The next stage of the OneGeology initiative will hence be focused into increasing the openness and richness of that data from individual countries to create a multi-thematic global geological data resource on the rocks beneath our feet. Authoritative information on hazards and minerals will help to prevent natural disasters, explore for resources (water, minerals and energy) and identify risks to human health on a planetary scale. With this new stage also renewed OneGeology objectives were defined and these are 1) to be the provider of geosciences data globally, 2) to ensure exchange of know-how and skills so all can participate, and 3) to use the global profile of 1G to increase awareness of the geosciences and their relevance among professional and general public. We live in a digital world that enables prompt access to vast amounts of open access data. Understanding our world, the geology beneath our feet and environmental challenges related to geology calls for accessibility of geoscience data and OneGeology Portal (portal.onegeology.org) is the place to find them.

Paleoclimate reconstructions over eastern Andes of Perú and Bolivia based on stable isotopes ?18O of speleothems

J. Apaéstegui (Peruvian Geophysical Institute IGP, Lima, Peru)

Abstract details
Paleoclimate reconstructions over eastern Andes of Perú and Bolivia based on stable isotopes ?18O of speleothems

J. Apaéstegui (1) ; F. Cruz (2) ; A. Sifeddine (3) ; B. Turcq (4) ; JL. Guyot (5) ; JP. Bernal (6) ; JC. Espinoza (7) ; M. Vuille (8)
(1) Peruvian Geophysical Institute IGP, Lima, Peru; (2) Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de são paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; (3) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IRD, Umr locean (ird/upmc/cnrs/mnhn), Paris, France; (4) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, LOCEAN, Lima, Peru; (5) IRD, Lima, Peru; (6) Centro de Geociencias, Universidad nacional autónoma de mexico, Querétaro, Mexico; (7) Instituto Geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru; (8) University of Albany, Suny, Albany, United States of America

Abstract content

During the last years, especial efforts on paleoclimate reconstructions have shown interest in the behavior of South American Monsoon System (SAMS) during the last 2 ky. Since there is considerable concern that the SAMS dynamics will be significantly affected by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the 21st century, there is an urgent need to improve document and understand the causes of Monsoon variations in response to natural forcing during the most recent past period. For instance, climate modeling studies and additional paleoclimate records of ocean and atmospheric conditions are needed to best define the relationships between SAMS rainfall and ocean– atmosphere variability during the late Holocene.

In this sense, we have developed stable isotopes (δ18O, δ13C) and trace elements time series (Ex: Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca) from calcite speleothems collected in the eastern Andes of Perú (Rioja - San Martin, ~6° S) and Bolivia (Torotoro – Potosí, ~18° S). These records allow us to reconstruct past changes in the SAMS and local hydrological conditions during the Holocene with special interest through most of the last two millennia. Our results evidence different modes of SAMS variability arriving from decadal (64 yrs) to millennial timescales (1500 yrs). Comparison between Andean records and other South American proxies records reveals spatial changes in rainfall distribution and SAMS intensity over different time periods. Such variations in SAMS suggest interactions of oceanic - atmospheric modes triggering teleconnections associated with hydroclimate conditions reconstructed in the SAMS region.

Moreover, it is worth noting that is necessary to develop more proxies record in the southern hemisphere and key areas of the SAMS for better understand the climate system. Additionally, it is also important to reproduce these changes by coupled ocean-atmosphere models in order to define and recognize better relationships and mechanism that could affect this system. These approaches would bring invaluable tools for define possible effects of climate change in SAMS and reduce population affected by extreme events in South America.

Present and future salt climatology in France

B. Menéndez (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, Cergy-Pontoise cedex, France)

Abstract details
Present and future salt climatology in France

B. Menéndez (1)
(1) Université de Cergy-Pontoise, Géosciences et Environnement Cergy, Cergy-Pontoise cedex, France

Abstract content

Following the concept of “salt climatology” introduced by Grossi et al. (2011) which deals with the knowledge of environmental parameters conditioning salt weathering of cultural built heritage, our objective in this work is to compare the spatial salt weathering distribution in France in the near past (1971-2000) to the one predicted in the future (2071-2100).

To quantify salt damage, different methods are used depending on the  salt type. For some salts the number of phase transitions is estimated from meteorological data, temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH).  For other salts the damage is estimated just from the environmental conditions. In this study we took into account three different salts: Sodium Chloride, Sodium Sulphate and Calcium Sulphate. For NaCl we estimate the number of times salt can crystallise from a solution. To do that we consider the number of times that daily relative humidity crosses the deliquescence value of 75.3%, from RH higher than 75.3% to RH lower than 75.3%, and for temperatures above 0°C. To estimate the weathering produced by Na2SO4 we count the number of times the equilibrium line between thenardite and mirabilite has been crossed in the phase diagram temperature – relative humidity. On this phase diagram for Na2SO4 we assume that the line separating thenardite and mirabilite domains is a straight line for the temperature range between 0 and 35°.  For gypsum, it is assumed that when relative humidity is higher than 80%, gypsum will precipitate on the inner part of the rock inducing important damage, whereas it will precipitate on the surface when relative humidity is lower than 80%, with less damage associated. Therefore the number of days with relative humidity higher than 80% has been considered as an estimator of gypsum weathering. In this way we calculate the number of transitions of Sodium Chloride and Sodium Sulphate and the number of days with RH higher than 80% for two locations in the North-West of France, Rouen and Caen.

To estimate salt weathering distribution in France we use the methodology presented in Grossi et al. (2011). To obtain a “simple” way to estimate salt transitions in different locations, we plotted the number of monthly salt transitions calculated for the period 1960-2008 in Caen and Rouen data as a function of the difference between mean relative humidity and the equilibrium relative humidity for each salt. For sodium chloride the relative humidity equilibrium is equal to 75.3% and it is independent of temperature, in the range 0 to 40°C. For sodium sulphate we obtain the equilibrium relative humidity for each temperature from the phase diagram. For calcium sulphate we consider the 80% relative humidity threshold. By a regression fit of this plot we can associate a number of monthly transitions to the mean relative humidity for the month by a polynomial function. This methodology allows estimating the salt damage from simple data as the mean monthly relative humidity.

We estimate the salt weathering in 44 locations uniformly distributed in France, applying the obtained regression to meteorological data from 44 stations and to future model data at the same locations obtained from climate models.  All the past data come from Météo-France stations from 1971 to 2000 and future data from simulations of Arpege model for 2071 to 2100, A1b scenario. The final goal was to classify the different salt weathering behaviours in different regions. For each station we calculate the mean, max, min and standard deviation of the number of transitions (NaCl and Na2SO4) or the number of days (CaSO4) obtained from the polynomial regression functions. After that we apply an Ascending Hierarchical Classification to the data to classify the different locations.

The results show that for past data 3 different “salt behaviour” classes are well differentiated but for future data the classification is more complex and does not correspond to the actual one. In general, we can distinguish three geographic areas in a N-W to S-E direction. In the Northern part weathering by NaCl and Na2SO4 will remain constant or slightly decrease but gypsum effect will be more important. In the central part, covering most of the France, salt weathering will increase for the three salts and in the southern part, NaCl and Na2SO4 salt weathering will increase but gypsum weathering will decrease.

Probabilistic surface reconstruction of coastal sea level rise during the twentieth century

G. Choblet (CNRS - Université de Nantes, Nantes, France)

Abstract details
Probabilistic surface reconstruction of coastal sea level rise during the twentieth century

G. Choblet (1) ; H. Laurent (2) ; T. Bodin (3)
(1) CNRS - Université de Nantes, Laboratoire de Planétologie et Géodynamique, Nantes, France; (2) CNRS - Université Joseph Fourier, Isterre, Grenoble, France; (3) UC Berkeley, Earth and planetary science, Berkeley, United States of America

Abstract content

We present a new surface reconstruction procedure based on the Bayesian inference method for coastal relative sea level variation during the twentieth century. Average rates are computed from tide gauge records. Models based on a Voronoi tessellation adapt to the level of information which proves well suited to the strong heterogeneity of data. Each point of the reconstructed surface is defined through a probability density function, a format particularly well adapted to this climate-related datum. The resolution of reconstructed surfaces strongly varies among the six large regions considered and within a given region. Anomalous sea level variations recorded locally are shown to reflect either anthropogenic effects or well-identified fast tectonics. For a poor data coverage, these can cause a problematic distortion of the reconstructed surface. Europe, North America, Australia, and Africa present a single trend with a decreasing precision of the reconstructed surface as a function of resolution of the tide gauge record. The most prominent feature in Europe is the pronounced uplift of Fennoscandia. Coasts of United States have the best resolution in North America and present stronger rates of sea level rise on the Atlantic than their European counterparts. Australia (especially in the North) and Africa are poorly resolved. Asia and South America depart clearly from this trend: a relatively uniform rise is obtained for Asia in spite of a good tide gauge record. Conversely, the reconstructed surface for South America presents an exceptional degree of roughness, at odds with a relatively poor record. Overall, this method not only offers a new assessment of sea level change (validating earlier results) but also quantifies the reliability of estimates. 

 

We finally apply a similar procedure to GPS vertical data. First results on vertical ground motion which therefore allow the local evaluation of absolute sea-level rise during the twentieth century will be presented.

Recent acceleration of glacier retreat in the Northern Patagonia Icefield based on an updated decennial evolution

P. Lopez (CNRS, University Rennes 1, Geosciences Rennes, Rennes, France)

Abstract details
Recent acceleration of glacier retreat in the Northern Patagonia Icefield based on an updated decennial evolution

P. Lopez (1) ; G. Casassa, (2)
(1) Géosciences Rennes, Rennes, France; (2) Geoestudios Ltda and Universidad de Magallanes, Santiago and Punta Arenas, Chile

Abstract content

The glacier length fluctuations and the surface area evolution between 2001 and 2011 of 25 glaciers of the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI) were studied: the information extracted from the Landsat ETM+ satellite image of 11 March 2001 was compared to the measurements performed based on the Landsat ETM+ satellite image of 19 February 2011. From a global point of view, the majority of the studied glaciers thinned, retreated and lost surface between 2001 and 2011, only few glaciers (Leones, Nef, Pared Sur and Soler) located on the eastern side of the NPI have been stable. Glaciers located on the western side of the NPI suffered a stronger wasting compared to the glaciers located on the eastern side.

Between 2001 and 2011, a noteworthy retreat of 1.9 km was experienced by Gualas Glacier and by Reichert Glacier with 1.6 km, both located on the north-western side of the NPI. On the south-western side of the NPI, during the same decennia, Steffen Glacier experienced a remarkable retreat of 1.6 km as well. During the 2001-2011 period, Steffen Glacier more than doubled its rate of retreat (compared to the 1979-2001 period) and experienced the disintegration of its main front as well as a lateral tongue that retreated 3.1 km. The most significant retreat observed on the eastern side was experienced by Colonia Glacier (1 km).

Area loss was also relevant during the period 2001-2011. Overall, the icefield experienced a reduction of 50.6 km² which represents a 1.3% relative to the surface area calculated for 2001 year. The most remarkable surface reduction was observed for HPN-1 Glacier that lost 3.2% of its surface estimated in 2001, followed by Steffen Glacier (2.8%).

We suggest that the glacier shrinking observed in the NPI is controlled firstly by atmospheric warming, as it has been reported in this area. Nevertheless, updated climatic studies are needed in order to confirm this suggestion. If the detected past climate trends persist, in the future, glaciers of the NPI will continuous or even increase their rate of shrinking generating important consequences for this region like the production of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood events or the decrease of the melt-water runoff in the long-term future.

Recent sea-surface pH and SST changes in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Clipperton Reef) inferred from coral geochemistry

D. Dissard (IRD, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Recent sea-surface pH and SST changes in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Clipperton Reef) inferred from coral geochemistry

D. Dissard (1) ; D. E. (2) ; T. Correge (3) ; M. Mcculloch (4)
(1) IRD, Paris, France; (2) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) EPOC, Bordeaux , France; (4) UWA ARC, Perth, Australia

Abstract content

Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations from 280 (pre-industrial value) to 390 ppmv (present value) have decreased global surface ocean pH by approximately 0.1 unit. Estimates of future atmospheric pCO2 suggest a further decrease of 0.3 pH units by the end of the century. Geochemical records preserved in the carbonate skeleton of shallow water corals provide one of the few means to reconstruct changes in seawater carbonate chemistry. However, since the early 1990´s, when the potential of δ11B in biogenic carbonate as proxy for paleo-pH was realised, only few studies report on the recent decadal to centennial pH record, which is the appropriate timescale for studying the effects of ocean acidification driven by anthropogenic emissions of CO2.

The French island of Clipperton is the easternmost coral atoll in the Pacific Ocean located approximately 1200 km off the coast of Mexico. Due to the small number of ecological niches suitable for coral reefs development, almost no coral-based climatic records exists from the eastern Pacific. The possibility to work on Corals from Clipperton’s therefore represents a unique opportunity to obtain information on surface seawater properties (e.g. T°C, carbonate chemistry) of this key area of the central eastern Pacific Ocean. As part of this study we have undertaken, boron and oxygen isotope compositions and elemental ratios (Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, B/Ca, Li/Mg) have been analysed over the last 80 years of a coral core retrieved in a colony of Porites australiensis (located 10°17.506N/109°13.508W, Clipperton island, 10m depth). Boron isotopes were measured by MC-ICPMS, while elemental concentrations were determined using ICP-QMS.  Isotopic compositions and elemental concentrations were used to quantify changes in seawater environmental parameters – and their significance on the global or more regional Pacific oceanic circulation will be discussed.

Response of North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

T. Oudar (CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
Response of North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

T. Oudar (1) ; E. Sanchez-Gomez (1) ; F. Chauvin (2) ; L. Terray (1)
(1) CERFACS/CNRS, Sciences de l'Univers au CERFACS, URA1875, Toulouse, France; (2) Météo-France, CNRM-GAME, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

Climate variability in Europe is largely controlled by North Atlantic storm tracks. They are associated with transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour, between the equator and the pole. Extratropical cyclones have caused severe damages over some regions in north-western Europe, since they can combine extreme precipitation and strong winds. This is why it seems relevant to study the impact of climate change on the extratropical cyclones, principally on their intensity, position or lifespan. Indeed, several recent studies have focused on this subject by using atmospheric reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs). The main conclusions obtained from the CMIP3 simulations showed a decreasing of the total number of cyclones and a poleward shift of their tracks in response to global warming. In the recent CMIP5 exercise, the consensus is not so clear, probably due to more complex retroactions acting in the different models. Thus, the question of changes in North Atlantic storm-tracks with warming remains unanswered.

The main goal of this work is to explore the changes in the North Atlantic storm-tracks in the past decades and to analyze the role of the external versus the internal variability on these changes. We will use different sets of atmospheric reanalyses and the climate simulations performed with the climate model CNRM-CM5, built up by the CNRM-CERFACS modelling group as a contribution to CMIP5. To characterize the extratropical cyclones and their tracks, the tracking scheme developed at Meteo France by Ayrault (1995) has been used. It is based on the detection of maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa.

The algorithm has been applied to the ERA40 and 20CR reanalyses. Even though the 20CR reanalysis covers the whole 20th century, we show, in this study, that it is not adapted to assess trends in the atmospheric fields before 1950, due to some discrepancies in the assimilated observations. However, in the second part of the 20th century, the 20CR reanalysis seems coherent to ERA40.

In a second part, we investigate the effect of external forcings on the North Atlantic storm tracks recent trends in the simulation performed with CNRM-CM5. We compare a control simulation with the historical simulation, in which all the external forcings have been prescribed. We show that the model fairly well reproduces the storm genesis locations as well as the following tracks. In the historical period (1850-2005), the model shows a decrease in the number of storms in the southern North-Atlantic, when all the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are prescribed. In the scenario (RCP8.5), the tendency seen in the all-forcings historical run is confirmed and reinforced.

Finally, we use the idealized simulations to study the effects on storm-tracks when only one kind forcing is prescribed to the climate model. Here we show that the response of North Atlantic storm-track is coherent to the one found in the historical simulation when only an increase of 2% CO2 per year during 30 years is precribed, suggesting that, in the CNRM-CM5 model, the impact of the CO2 forcing is the dominant to explain the trends in the North Atlantic storm-tracks.

Result of numerical modelling of groundwater resource in the Shiraki catchment

M. George (Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia), N. Zhukova (Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia), M. Todadze (Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia)

Abstract details
Result of numerical modelling of groundwater resource in the Shiraki catchment

M. George (1) ; N. Zhukova (1) ; M. Todadze (1)
(1) Institute of Geophysics, Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

Abstract content

Eastern Georgia encounters, due to its semiarid climate, a big deficit of 1040 million cubic meters of water for irrigation and domestic use. One of the most important examples is the agricultural area of Shiraki Plain, which occupies over 80.000 km2 on a large, partly artesian aquifer of the Alazani basin and on the upland synclines between the rivers Alazani and Iori (1). In order to assessment water resource, numerical model of groundwater hydrodynamics was elaborated for this area based on the conceptual model, which based on the provisional data (geological, geophysical, hydrogeological, hydrological, etc). Model of the aquifer have been processed by special software Visual Modflow Package. In order to assessment water resource, a numerical model of groundwater was elaborated for Shiraki area. It is consists of 3 layers. Each layer represents a porous material with different infiltration properties. The model was calibrated in transient transport mode to tritium concentration measured in boreholes and springs located in Shiraki area. Tritium was assigned as a single mobile species, not reacting with chemical elements and concentrated in water, what allowed determining the residence time of groundwater flow. The model estimated discharge and recharge zones, groundwater flow directions and velocities as well as groundwater age for Shiraki area. It is recommended to enhance the use of waters from the karstic formations as alternative drinking water sources.

Run-off events registered in East Pacific equatorial region during the late Holocene : analysis of possible causes through IPSL model transient simulation

B. Turcq (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Lima, Peru)

Abstract details
Run-off events registered in East Pacific equatorial region during the late Holocene : analysis of possible causes through IPSL model transient simulation

B. Turcq (1) ; O. Marti, (2) ; P. Braconnot (2) ; D. Gutierrez Aguilar (3) ; J. Leloup, (4) ; M. Saint-Lu, (2)
(1) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Locean-ipsl/upch, Lima, Peru; (2) LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) Instituto del Mar del Perú, IMARPE, Dirección General de Investigaciones en Oceanografía y Cambio Climático, Callao, Peru; (4) LOCEAN - IPSL, Paris, France

Abstract content

An increase of clastic sediment inputs has been observed between 5 and 4 kyrs BP in lakes of the equatorial region of South America, in Ecuador and Galapagos islands as well as in marine sediments off Northern Peru. These changes in sedimentation have been interpreted as a strengthening of El Niño due to insolation change. Conversely, data from central and west-Pacific corals do not indicate a clear trend of ENSO change during the Holocene but strong centennial to millennial oscillations.

To help interpreting the climate change in this region we analyzed a transient simulation of IPSL CM5A LR global climate model from 6 to 3kyrs. The simulation indicates an increase of heavy rainfall events (monthly rainfall intensity) in the East Pacific (90-80°W, 0-6°S) since 5kyrs. Most of these events are linked to occurrences of El Niño events and the summer precipitations show a multi-decadal variability related with the variability of SST anomalies in El Niño 3-4 region.

However the model did not show important change in SST anomalies in ENSO 3_4 or ENSO 1+2 regions during this period although there is a 0.2°C increase of SST between 6 and 5kyrs. The comparison between 6 and 4 kyrs precipitation maps show that the main difference is a northern shift of ITCZ position during South Hemisphere summer that provokes more intense rainfall in the study region. This northern shift is also observed on the Atlantic Ocean in agreement with paleoclimate data from lakes and speleothems in Northeast Brazil. In conclusion the IPSL transient simulation suggest that the impact of El Niño events in term of precipitations in the East Pacific can have been modulated by shift of the ITCZ during the Holocene.

This study is supported by ANR El Paso n° 2010 BLANC 608 01 and by the french national programme LEFE/INSU.

Salinisation: A social, ecological and health issue in the Bengal Delta

M. Rahman (International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Dhaka , France)

Abstract details
Salinisation: A social, ecological and health issue in the Bengal Delta

M. Rahman (1) ; PK. Streatfield (1) ; J. Levi (2)
(1) International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh , Center for population, urbanization and climate change, Dhaka, Bangladesh; (2) Institute of Global Health Innovation, Imperial college, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The Bengal Delta is formed by three major rivers; Ganges, Brahamaputra and Meghna. This region is particularly vulnerable to climate change and densely populated with 650 million inhabitants. Climate change causes a complex multitude of social, ecological and health problems. Salinisation (referring to the buildup of salts in both soil and water) may be exacerbated and amplified by climate change and is a growing threat to this delta.

 

Sea level rise, land subsidence, rapid transition from agricultural land use to shrimp cultivation, upstream fresh water extraction (which normally flushes out saline sea water), increasing cyclone and storm surges all contribute to increased salt intrusion in the South-West coastal region of Bangladesh; constituting the majority of The Bengal Delta. Salinisation affects both rural and urban coastal communities through changes in livelihood, contamination of water sources, reduced agricultural productivity, and declining trends in ecosystem services. Furthermore, salinization adds a huge public health burden both upon individual health (hypertension may just be the tip of the iceberg) and population level social and economic development.

 

Recent research has explored broad impacts of salinization in this region, however, we lack a concise summary of the evidence required for the formation of much needed meaningful solutions. This paper is a critical systematic review to assess and condense salinization’s impact on life, livelihood and wellbeing of coastal populations. Different community based adaptation options will be discussed and conclusions will be drawn from a systematic literature review, recent field work and results from several ongoing project experiences.

Satellite-derived aerosol climate data records in the ESA Aerosol_cci project

G. De Leeuw (FMI & UHEL, Helsinki, Finland)

Abstract details
Satellite-derived aerosol climate data records in the ESA Aerosol_cci project

G. De Leeuw (1) ; T. Holzer-Popp (2) ; S. Pinnock, (3) ; G. De Leeuw (4)
(1) FMI & UHEL, Climate Research / Physics, Helsinki, Finland; (2) DLR German Remote Sensing Data Center (DFD), Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; (3) European Space Agency (ECSAT), Esa climate office, Harwell, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom; (4) fmi, Climate research, Helsinki, Finland

Abstract content

Within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) project Aerosol_cci (Phase 1: 2010 –2014; Phase 2: 2014-2017) intensive work has been conducted to improve algorithms for the retrieval  of aerosol information from European sensors ATSR-2 (ERS-2), AATSR (3 algorithms), MERIS (3 algorithms), synergetic AATSR/SCIAMACHY, GOMOS (all on ENVISAT), PARASOL and OMI (EOS-Aura) (both part of NASA’s A-Train). Whereas OMI and GOMOS were used to derive absorbing aerosol index and stratospheric extinction profiles, respectively, Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Ångström coefficient were retrieved from the other sensors. The cooperation between the project partners, including both retrieval teams and independent validation teams, has resulted in a strong improvement of most algorithms. In particular the AATSR retrieved AOD is qualitatively similar to that from MODIS, usually taken as the standard, MISR and SeaWiFS. This conclusion has been reached by several different ways of validation of the L2 and L3 products. Using AERONET sun photometer data as the common ground-truth both ‘traditional’ statistical techniques and a ‘scoring’ technique based on spatial and temporal correlations were applied. Quantitatively, the limited AATSR swath width of 512km results in a smaller amount of data. Nevertheless, the assimilation of AATSR-retrieved AOD, together with MODIS data, contributes to improving ECMWF / MACC climate model results. In addition to the multi-spectral AOD, and thus the Ångström Exponent, also a per-pixel uncertainty is provided and validated. By the end of Aerosol_cci Phase 1 the ATSR algorithms have been applied to both ATSR-2 and AATSR resulting in an AOD time series of 17 years dating back to 1995.

In phase 2 this work is continued with a focus on the further improvement of the ATSR algorithms as well as those for the other instruments and algorithms, mentioned above, which in phase 1 were considered less mature. The first efforts are on the further characterization of the uncertainties and on better understanding of the cloud screening in the various algorithms. Other efforts will focus on surface treatment and possible improvement of aerosol models used in the retrieval. A yearly re-processing of the full 17-year global ATSR-2/AATSR data set with three different algorithms is planned to evaluate the effect of different changes and to monitor further improvement. A new focus in phase 2 is the production of a full-mission dataset of dust AOD from IASI with four different algorithms, which are based on very different retrieval techniques. A major task within the project is the first inter-comparison of those IASI dust retrieval algorithms on the basis of a large set of observations. For this purpose, one year of IASI observations (2013) over the major dust belt of the Northern hemisphere, including the Northern Atlantic Ocean, the Sahara desert, the Arabian Peninsula as well as the Central Asian desert regions, will be provided from all four algorithms and similar retrieval output (visible and infrared AOD, AOD uncertainty, retrieval quality, cloud flags) is generated in order to facilitate the comparison of results. Another new aspect is the production of a diagnostic time series over four regions in Africa, Asia and North America where other reference data are sparse, from POLDER (on ADEOS1 and 2) and PARASOL data. The application of the multi-pixel GRASP algorithm to data from these instruments, which combine multiple wavelengths and multiple viewing angles with polarization information is expected to provide an independent data set as reference for retrieval products from other instruments with less optimum characteristics for aerosol retrieval.

An important aspect is the use of the climate data records (CDRs) produced in the Aerosol_cci project and the interaction with the user community to further improve the products. To this end  representatives of different user communities are tasked with applications such as trend analysis, use of the CDRs in climate modeling, studies on aerosol-cloud interactions and stratospheric chemistry. The presentation will summarize the concept and status of the Aerosol_cci project in both phases and discuss in particular the achievements regarding the 17 year ATSR time series and its significance for climate studies in different parts of the world.

Scenarios for extreme climate characteristics

P. Szabo (Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract details
Scenarios for extreme climate characteristics

P. Szabo (1)
(1) Hungarian Meteorological Service, Climate modelling group, Budapest, Hungary

Abstract content

State-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) are the best tools to provide detailed and quantitative information about future climate change at regional and local scales since it describes physical processes affecting regional climate features in detail. The results obtained from a regional climate model of around 10-25 km horizontal resolution are of good basis for local impact assessments instead of using low resolution global climate model outputs. However, model simulations have different sources and magnitude of uncertainties, the climate modelling community strives to deliver the projection results together with their uncertainties for impact studies. To assess uncertainty in the simplest way, at the Hungarian Meteorological Service two RCMs are run covering Central-Eastern Europe: REMO (25 km) adapted from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and ALADIN-Climate (10 km) from Météo-France.

Local impact assessments are based mainly on daily minimum and maximum temperature (besides daily mean values). According to observational data, our local climate over Hungary is warming up more rapidly than the global temperature. The main question of our investigation is whether the record highs increase or the record lows decrease faster. Using observations we calculate how many record high daily maximum temperature and record low daily minimum temperature are set in each year over a grid point. Current record high to record low ratio is above one: it is around 3 to 1 in Hungary with an average of 3.6 in the last 5 years and 2.6 in the last 10 years. Relative increase of record highs to record lows is shown for the two locally-run RCMs from 1961 to 2100, however, the increasing ratio could eventuate that record lows could disappear in the whole country around the end of the 21st century.

We give results for the record high daily precipitation, as well. Compared to the theoretical stationary climate conditions, observations show only an intensification in the inter-annual variability of precipitation records in Hungary. The two models also do not expose robust results: only one model shows a clear increase in record high daily precipitation for the end of the 21st century.

Sea level rise and Geoid: Factor analysis approach

A. Sadovski (TexasA&M University-Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX, United States of America)

Abstract details
Sea level rise and Geoid: Factor analysis approach

H. Song, (1) ; A. Sadovski (2) ; G. Jeffress, (1)
(1) Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, Conrad blucher institute for surveying, Corpus Christi, United States of America; (2) TexasA&M University-Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX, United States of America

Abstract content

      Sea levels are rising around the world, and this is a particular concern along most of the coasts of the United States. A 1989 EPA report shows that sea levels rose 5-6 inches more than the global average along the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts in the last century. The main reason for this is coastal land subsidence. This sea level rise is considered more as relative sea level rise than global sea level rise. Thus, instead of studying sea level rise globally, this paper describes a statistical approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change. Unlike physical models and semi-empirical models that attempt to approach how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this methodology allows for a discussion of  the factor(s) that statistically affects sea level rates of change, and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlations.

Cartographers and geodesists, those who study the measurement of the size and shape of the earth, are interested in sea level as an elevation datum. This datum is called the geoid, which is defined as the equipotential gravity surface of the Earth, and theoretically best fits global mean sea level in ocean areas. Hence, the rate of change in mean sea level directly affects changes to the geoid and the elevation datum used as the reference for topographic mapping.

      Many methods have been used in sea level rise modeling. These methods can be divided into two categories: physical models, based on the conservation of mass (global water mass and ice mass measurements), and semi-empirical models, studying measured rates of change of sea level and measured changes in global temperatures along with the error estimates of measurements to predict future trends. These two approaches are complementary. For example, no one really understands the dynamics of each and every glacier, so it is quite difficult to calculate melting glaciers from physical models, hence the use of semi-empirical methods described in the majority of studies of sea level rise. This paper introduces a different approach by using factor analysis of regional sea level rates of change as a statistical analysis tool. Instead of answering the question of how much and how fast sea levels are changing, this paper computes and discusses which mathematical factor statistically affects sea level rates of change and seeks patterns to explain spatial correlation. The paper also seeks to hypothesize that any insights into the factors influencing sea level change also apply to the changes to the geoid.

 

Sea-level change and projection for future flooding along the coast off Egypt

M. Shaltout (Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Egypt., Alexandria, Egypt)

Abstract details
Sea-level change and projection for future flooding along the coast off Egypt

M. Shaltout (1)
(1) Faculty of Science, Alexandria University, Egypt., Physical Oceanography, Alexandria, Egypt

Abstract content

The current study analyses the recent changes in the daily satellite altimetry data along the southern Levantine sub-basin and cost off Egypt over the period 1993-2013. First, the accuracy of using satellite altimetry data, represented by dynamical topography (DT) as a measure of coastal sea levels, is examined based on tide gauges observations. Second, daily and annual satellite altimetry data are related to five atmospheric/oceanic factors to evaluate their effect on DT changes. Third, the qualities of three realisations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global climate model (GCM) are examined by comparing these with the satellite altimetry dataset. Finally, the simulations that best describes the present satellite altimetry data are used to describe the uncertainties in projection of the sea level changes along the study area.

The results indicate that the satellite altimetry data represented by DT can be used to study coastal and deep sea level changes in the study area. Southern Levantine sub-basin sea level display a recent average sea level rise of 3.1 cm decade–1 and exhibits a significant annual sea level variation from –17 cm (deep water) to 8 cm (shallow water). The sea level variations are significantly affected by several factors such as and in order of importance: sea level variations west of Gibraltar Strait, steric sea level variations and sea surface temperature. The GCMs that most realistically describe the recent sea level over the study area is GFDL-CM3, outputs from this model are used to study the projected sea level along the study area for different emission scenarios. GFDL-CM3 model results indicate that the coast of Egypt will experience sea level rise in the current century. Uncertainty in the projected sea level rise over the studied area ranged from 4 to 22 cm rise by 2100 and was explained by three different sources of uncertainties, of which the emission assumed dominated. Comparing of uncertainty in the projected sea level rise with digital elevation data shows that the Egyptian Mediterranean coast will only become safe from flooded by the end of 21st century if effective adaptation methods are applied. 

Socio-Scientific Teaching and Learning: Climate Change Concepts and Issues

M. Pagunsan (UNESCO Jakarta Office, Jakarta , Indonesia)

Abstract details
Socio-Scientific Teaching and Learning: Climate Change Concepts and Issues

M. Pagunsan (1) ; J. Omay (2) ; S. Delgado-Confesor (3)
(1) UNESCO Jakarta Office, Education Unit, Jakarta , Indonesia; (2) Sibalom National High School, Sibalom, Antique, Philippines; (3) University of Antique , Sibalom, Antique, Philippines

Abstract content

One of the challenges the teacher faces in introducing contemporary scientific developments into science lessons are the lack of available teaching and learning materials. Materials that are engaging enough that inspires, encourages and develops meaningful learning among students. This paper will present the collaborative project on the development of a Teachers’ Guide Book in Integrating Climate Change Issues in Southeast Asian Schools. Specifically it will present the experiences, best practices and lessons learned in developing a science lesson exemplar through the partnership of teacher trainers and secondary school teachers in Malaysia. The developed science lesson exemplar has undergone students’ try-out in Malaysian secondary school. Then, the implementation of the said science lesson exemplar in Philippines’ secondary school will be highlighted. This paper will conclude with lessons learned in developing science lesson exemplars that integrates climate change concepts and issues. It will also present its usability, applicability and replicability implications as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gears towards the realization of ASEAN Community later this year. 

South American precipitation changes simulated by PMIP3/CMIP5 models in past and present climates

C. Vera (Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), UMI-IFAECI, CONICET-UBA-CNRS, Buenos Aire, Argentina)

Abstract details
South American precipitation changes simulated by PMIP3/CMIP5 models in past and present climates

C. Vera (1) ; L. Diaz, (2)
(1) Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), UMI-IFAECI, CONICET-UBA-CNRS, Buenos Aire, Argentina; (2) Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), UMI-IFAECI, CONICET-UBA-CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Abstract content

Significant precipitation changes have been identified in many regions of South America using both, paleoclimatic proxy records of the last 700 years and instrumental observations of the more recent decades. Such changes are not clearly understood yet, besides that they largely impact the socio-economic activities of the countries that the regions encompass. The availability of the climate simulations included in the Fifth Phase of the World Climate Research Program-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the Third Phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) provides an excellent opportunity to assess the ability of current models in representing those precipitation changes. Therefore, that assessment is briefly discussed here as well as the exploration of the main dynamic mechanisms that might explain them.

The following experiments of the PMIP3/CMIP5 set were considered: the pre-industrial experiment, which not include any external forcing; the Historical experiment, which was obtained forcing models by both, natural and anthropogenic sources, observed between 1850 and 2005; and the Last Millennium which which span the period from 850 to 1850 and is obtained considering the natural forcing estimated for that period. Multi-model ensemble means (MEM) were computed for each experiment over the periods under study.

The Andes Mountains are one of the regions in South America in which paleoclimate studies have been focused on. In particular, in both, the Altiplano, a high-level plateau (around 3800 m), located in the Andes between 15ºS and 21ºS, and the subtropical Andes, located in central Chile at around 33ºS, wetter-than-normal conditions were identified during the 17th century within the period known as Little Ice Age (LIA). On the other hand, drier-than-normal conditions were detected at both regions in the second part of the 20th century in association with the more recent global warming period (GWP). Although MEM are capable of representing the thermal changes in South America estimated in both periods, they do not properly represent the expected precipitation changes, except in the subtropical Andes during the GWP. The large uncertainties associated with the model simulations might be due to their limitations in reproducing the regional precipitation, especially over complex topography. On the other hand, models seem able to represent the large-scale circulation changes that would explain the precipitation changes observed at those two regions in a physically consistent way. It was found that in the Altiplano, wetter (drier) summers in LIA (GWP) seem to be related with a stronger (weaker) upper-level eastward zonal flow, well represented by the MEM. On the other hand, models consistently show that wetter (drier) winters in the subtropical Andes in LIA (GWP), seem to be associated with a stronger (weaker) westward zonal flow in the low troposphere, induced in turn by hemispheric changes related to a negative (positive) phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM).

Southeastern South America (SESA), encompassing the most productive economic areas of 6 different countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay), is another region in which available records show a significant precipitation increase by the end of the XX century not only as as compared to that observed at the beginning of that century, but also to that estimated by paleoclimatic records at around 700 years ago. Both precipitation and circulation changes simulated by the models at that early period are highly uncertain. However, the MEM for the Historical experiment are able to reproduce precipitation changes observed in SESA during the GWP, although they are weaker than observed. In fact, most of the simulations reproduce the right sign of the precipitation changes in SESA during that period. However, associated uncertainty ranges (due to both inter-model  dispersion and internal climate variability), are still large. In addition, it was found that mean positive precipitation trends in SESA for the Historical experiment are statistically distinguishable from those obtained for the natural-forcing-only experiment made over the 20th century, which exhibit negligible mean values. Results allow concluding that the anthropogenic forcing has at least a partial contribution in explaining the precipitation changes observed in both SESA during the GWP.

Spatial and temporal variability in observed and future projected precipitation in Bia basin (Ivory coast-Ghana)

M. N'diaye Hermann (CENTRE DE RECHERCHE EN ECOLOGIE, ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast)

Abstract details
Spatial and temporal variability in observed and future projected precipitation in Bia basin (Ivory coast-Ghana)

M. N'diaye Hermann (1) ; KK. Lazare (1) ; YN. Alexis (2) ; KY. Morton (2) ; S. Issiaka (2)
(1) Centre de Recherche en Ecologie, Laboratoire géologie marine, sédimentologie et environnement, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Université Nangui Abrogoua, Laboratoire géosciences et environnement, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Abstract content

The phenomena of drought and desertification that affected many African countries south of the Sahara have not spared the Ivory Coast, especially from the 1980s. The impact of these events resulted in significant climatic disturbances including abnormal extension of the dry season, the irregularity and the poor distribution of rainfall and significant reductions in agricultural yields in the southeast zone. The question is to know is that these same phenomena will repeat in the future in the medium term (2030-2050) or long-term future (2070 and beyond).

Attempts to assess the changes between the observed (or historical) and future projected monthly rainfall for six stations throughout Bia basin have been made with descriptive statistics and value analysis. We obtained the monthly rainfalls data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP 5) dataset. These data is downscaled using the change factor approach for 30 1981 to 2010 (period 0), simulation from 2021 to 2050 (period 1) and from 2070 to 2099 (period 2). The historical and projected rainfalls are obtained from RCP 2.5, RCP 4.5, RCP 6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, which are based on a model HadGEM2-ES and model IPSL-CMSA-MR. The first order Markov chain model was used to describe the occurrence of sequences of wet or dry years. For the comparison of values, the return period estimates are obtained. To examine temporal changes in drought, a cluster analysis was conducted by Self Organizing Map (SOM) for Matlab. The within-group linkage and the hierarchical clustering analysis method were performed using the value of the monthly. The number of optimum cluster was determined when the similarity between merged clusters decreased sharply according to the number of groups. HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CMSA-MR represents the precipitation annual cycles quite well in Bia basin with the respective average correlation coefficients of 0.78 and 0.80.  From the descriptive statistics, we find that the numbers of heavy rainfall events will increase in the future. The total precipitation is projected to remain unchanged or slightly increased, compared to the observation. From the annually value analysis, we can observe that expected return periods for dry episodes are almost constant, ranging from 1.20 to 1.45 years. In accordance with this we should conclude that no significant differences could be established among the different stations of the basin. The short return period (1.05 years), reflecting the state of having a new dry episode, is observed in the Bia region during the period 2071 to 2099.

Subsequently, the monthly values with similar trends were grouped into two different clusters where the region G1 corresponds to Northern and G2 the Southern region. The map shows that future droughts are projected to frequently occur in all regions, especially from the -2021s to the early 2050s. The droughts in the Bia basin between the year 2026 and 2027 are distinct from the other regions in the same period. These were previously confirmed to be quite intense over annual timescales. For the period 2032–2035, intense droughts are expected to occur nationwide, which may also continue in the regions. After this period, sporadic drought is expected to occur in some regions, with more intense ones from the 2070s in the region G1 and G2. Lastly, in the year 2099, a short, intensive drought is expected to occur in all regions.

Spatial distribution of the vegetation and rainfall over West Africa during the last three decades (1981-2012) and associated atmospheric patterns

A. Bamba (Universite Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

Abstract details
Spatial distribution of the vegetation and rainfall over West Africa during the last three decades (1981-2012) and associated atmospheric patterns

A. Bamba (1) ; A. Diedhiou (2) ; B. Dieppois (3) ; P. Thierry (4) ; A. Konare (5) ; A. Diawara (6) ; B. Kamagate (7) ; S. Issiaka (8)
(1) Universite Nangui Abrogoua, SGE, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Institute of Research for Development (IRD), LTHE - University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble Cedex 9, France; (3) Université de Rouen, Mont-Saint-Aignan, France; (4) University of Grenoble-Alpes, LTHE, Grenoble, France; (5) Universite Felix Houphouet Boigny, Cocody, Ufr sst, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (6) University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (7) Université Nangui Abrogoua, Laboratoire de géosciences et environnement, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (8) Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Ufr sge, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Abstract content

Decadal variability of the rainfall and the vegetation over West Africa is revisited from 1981 to 2012 using Climate Research Unit (CRU) observation rainfall data and Normalizied Differentiel Vegetation Index (NDVI) from NOAA. From decade 80s to 90s, we observe a significant return to wetter conditions over West Africa confirmed during the decade 2000’s (00’s) except over Central Benin and all the western side of Nigeria where there are a decrease in annual rainfall magnitude. From decades 80s to 90s, we observe a regreening of the Central Sahel and Soudano-Sahel regions. From decade 90s to 00s, this regreening belt is observed toward the South and the Coastal areas, mainly over the Guinea Coast, Soudano-Guinean and Western Sahel regions. Factors of the atmosphere associated with the vegetation and rainfall changes over West Africa during the last three decades was investigated: During the last two decades, the West African monsoon (at 925hPa) and the Tropical Easterly Jet (at 200hPa) were stronger than in 80’s, and the African Easterly Jet (at 700hPa) is weaker. This synoptic configuration is known to be favorable to wet conditions.

Steps toward effective multi-disciplinary research data management systems

D. Schade (National Research Council Canada, Victoria, BC,, France)

Abstract details
Steps toward effective multi-disciplinary research data management systems

D. Schade (1)
(1) National Research Council Canada, Canadian Astronomy Data Centre, Victoria, BC,, France

Abstract content

Astronomy is often viewed as a discipline whose data management needs are well taken care of whereas a great many other research disciplines (the “long tail”) are suffering from the absence of good data management systems. Technology and data management practice evolve rapidly and I would argue that no area of research, including astronomy, has any real degree of security for the future of its data collections. Nevertheless, astronomy has a long history of digital data handling and thus has considerable experience and expertise that should be shared with other fields. It is important to acknowledge that astronomy is only one of many disciplines that could collectively share experience with other, less “well-served” communities. It is also important to recognize that we all have much to learn from one another and that interaction with “long tail” research communities will result in better data management practices for astronomy.

 

Astronomy was part of the “long-tail” or research data 25 years ago. It’s data collections were small, heterogeneous, lacked common standards, and were not interoperable. These properties of astronomy data management have changed dramatically (although we still face many challenges) and they have changed because of the hard work of dedicated cross-disciplinary teams of scientists and technologists. But our field has some demonstrable successes to our credit and has learned some profound lessons.

 

The central problem in creating multi-disciplinary data management systems is the development of Common Data Models that cross disciplinary boundaries. That means managing metadata in a way that supports the use cases of the multi-disciplinary research communities. This is true for all fields, including those that address climate change. The reality of astronomy data is that it is still produced in formats that represent thousands of “native data models” from thousands of different instruments. (A “data model”, in our vocabulary, is the structure that carries the meaning of the data and metadata.) The challenge is to develop a data model that supports the transformation of a large set of heterogenous native data models into a Common Data Model. The Common Data Model (CDM) supports the data management functions (curation, discovery, data access, data security) spanning diverse data collections.

 

This is the same problem that we face in creating multi-disciplinary data management systems. The process for solving the problem will be very similar. Collect research use cases and define requirements. Identify the metadata elements that are required to satisfy those requirements. Analyse where, in the native data models, those elements can be sourced or which elements can be transformed to produce the needed elements. It is true that we have diverse ways of representing even fundamental quantities like time and place (astronomy faces the same problem itself) but these can be reconciled.

 

Two points are worth mentioning with respect to Common Data Models. First, there exists no ideal, complete, and all-encompassing Common Data Model. Second, there is no “lossless” Common Data Model. Compromises are involved and loss of information may take place. A Common Data Model is implemented for the purpose of unifying diverse data collections. At the Canadian Astronomy Data Centre we ended 25 years of creating silos for each data collection by integrating 119 native data models into a single common model. Now there is a single path (shared by all interfaces) to using our data collections. The next step is to move into other research domains by building significant collaborations with other data management communities.

Strategy and new statistical downscaling method for the on-line derivation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance in a GCM

D. Salas Y Melia (CNRM-GAME (METEO-FRANCE/CNRS), Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
Strategy and new statistical downscaling method for the on-line derivation of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance in a GCM

D. Salas Y Melia (1) ; M. Geyer (1) ; E. Brun (2) ; M. Dumont (3)
(1) CNRM-GAME (METEO-FRANCE/CNRS), GMGEC/ASTER, Toulouse, France; (2) ONERC, Paris, France; (3) CEN, Grenoble, France

Abstract content

Current CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) coupled Global Climate Models (GCMs) cannot realistically represent ice sheet/climate feedbacks. This is due to their coarse horizontal resolution, which hampers the correct representation of Surface Mass Balance (SMB) spatial variability, to weaknesses in the representation of physical processes at the ice sheetsurface and to the lack of interactive ice sheet models which are necessary torepresent the ice loss due to dynamics. As a contribution to the future inclusion of interactive ice sheet models in coupled GCMs, we discuss various potential methods. We present a downscaling method designed for the online derivation  of the SMB field over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). This method uses  statistical relationships between SMB and temperature variations which have been established from off-line simulations of the SMB performed on a high resolution grid with a detailed snowpack model. We used this technique to downscale 150 km horizontal resolution SMB output from the CNRM-CM5.1 GCM to a 15 km resolution grid. A comparison with output from the MAR regional model shows that the downscaling clearly improves the spatial distribution of the SMB, particularly along the GrIS margins, where steep topography gradients are not correctly represented at low-resolution. A simulation where CNRM-CM5.1 was nudged with ERA-Interim demonstrates the ability of the method to reproduce reasonably well the interannual variability of the total GrIS SMB from 1979 to 2012.  From a technical point of view, the method is generic enough to be applied to outputs from other GCMs, though it cannot completely filter model biases, especially in the interior of the GrIS.

Studies on research initiatives for developing strategic knowledge on climate change impacts in India

A. Kamavisdar (Climate Change Programme, New Delhi , India), R. Kumar (Access to Knowledge Division , New Delhi, India), N. Mendiratta (Climate Change Programme, New Delhi, India), R. Singh (Climate Change Programme, New Delhi, India), K. Samuel (Climate Change Programme, New Delhi, India), A. Gupta (Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi, India)

Abstract details
Studies on research initiatives for developing strategic knowledge on climate change impacts in India

A. Kamavisdar (1) ; R. Kumar (2) ; N. Mendiratta (3) ; R. Singh (3) ; K. Samuel (3) ; A. Gupta ()
(1) Climate Change Programme, Department of Science & Technology, Govt. of India, New Delhi , India; (2) Access to Knowledge Division , Department of scientific and industrial research, New Delhi, India; (3) Climate Change Programme, Department of science & technology, New Delhi, India

Abstract content

This is well-known fact that Indian economy is based on its natural resources, agriculture and forestry, which are climate sensitive sectors. Considering the above India may expect considerable variations in vulnerability due to projected climate change phenomenon. In response to the same Government has prepared a National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) comprising of eight different national missions. Amongst these eight national missions, National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKCC) is expected to build an active knowledge system related to climate change issues in the country, that may help national actions for responding effectively to the objectives of ecologically sustainable development. This NMSKCC mission includes various issues to address climate change science with region specific modelling related to national objectives, international cooperation and strengthening the plans for development of new technologies for adaptation and mitigation and also expected to cover knowledge gaps that are to be bridged. It also proposes to develop human and institutional capacity-building actions related to climate change issues. These activities are being considered necessary for designing policy responses and implementation approaches at the national level and also for providing inputs to negotiations at the international platforms. This mission will work as a support mission to other seven national missions by providing strategic knowledge. Since considerable data resources are already available with various Ministries, academic and research and development institutes in India, a credible data sharing mechanism is also proposed to be developed under this mission.

In this presentation attempts are being made to discuss the development initiatives for “Strategic Knowledge on climate change in India" that includes establishment of knowledge networks in the areas of climate change science with modelling as well as health. Amongst the various R&D projects supported, under this mission, in the areas of seas level rise, forests fire, agriculture, ocean acidification, glacier studies and sustainable livelihoods, a number of strategic reports are expected to be published. Under the programme of capacity building, training of high quality climate change professionals and state institutions have been supported. For the International bilateral cooperation schemes, S&T cooperation with Switzerland and Iceland have been finalized.  In order to maintain speed with the state-of-the-art technologies emerging worldwide in the key sectors of economy, a programme named  “Global Technology Watch Group” (GTWG) is also being initiated that emphasises the different areas relevant to other seven missions on climate change such as solar energy, energy efficiency, water, agriculture, etc.

Synthesis Report on Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment over Niger River Basin

G. Bogale (ACMAD, Niamey, Niger, Republic of)

Abstract details
Synthesis Report on Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment over Niger River Basin

G. Bogale (1)
(1) ACMAD, Climate and environment, Niamey, Niger, Republic of

Abstract content

The Niger River Basin encompasses an area of 2.2 million square kilometer from this only 1.5 million square kilometer is hydrologically active. Development activities are going on along the basin such as mining, construction of dams for generating electricity and irrigation. The construction of dams is increasing across the Niger River basin by riparian countries. Most of the riparian countries recorded economical growth in recent years. The sustainability of the economical development and the achievement of million development goals are threatened by climate change. 

In this paper, we tried to assess climate change vulnerability over the basin. The climate of the region varies from tropical humid climate to arid climate and one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. The Basin suffered from desiccation in 1970s and 1980s and catastrophic recent flood events. The drought of 1984 reduced the GDP of Mali and Niger by 9% and 18% respectively.  The inner delta is one of the most vulnerable parts of the river basin because of the dependency of millions of lives and livelihoods including the pastoralist on it.

Studies of National Adaptation Programme of Action of riparian countries indicated that the surface temperature increased by less than 10C in the second half of the 20th century. The surface temperature is expected to rise between 3-60C at the end of the 21st century under different socio-economic scenarios. The decadal and multi-decadal observed variability of the rainfall in the Niger River basin was clearly figured out in the national and international reports. The rainfall variability in the Niger River Basin is associated with the sea surface temperature of global oceans, ENSO and complex interacting processes including land surface and desert dust aerosols.

Among the hydro-meteorological disasters of sub-Sahara Africa, 25% of the disasters occurred in West Africa which is the second vulnerable region after East Africa in the period 1974-2003. The number of days with heavy rainfall is expected to increase in 21st century in West Africa.  Furthermore, the projected mean sea level rise coupled with land subsidence due to the oil and gas extraction in the Niger delta will threaten the existing physical, biological and socioeconomic systems.

Rain-fed agriculture is dominated the Niger River Basin which is highly sensitive to climate variability and change. The population growth compounded with climate variability and change is a major challenge for agriculture sector to meet the demand. The major impacts of climate change for agricultural sector are a reduction in crop yield and total failure of the crops as well as the death of livestock and reduction of productivity.

The Niger River basin is considered as one of the basin which is affected by fresh water shortage in West Africa and the River itself influenced by the ground water base flow.  Climate variability and change impacted the river basin in the past. A significant decrease in rainfall amount resulted in two fold decrease in the surface and sub-surface runoff. The projection of rainfall in West Africa is uncertain due to the disparity of climate models; however, the water sector will be under stress as result of population growth, urbanization, water for agricultural growth and land use change.

The basin is affected by climate sensitive diseases such as malaria, meningitis, cholera, dysentery and diarrhea. The expected increase in surface temperature will exacerbate the incidence of climate sensitive disease in the basin. The multi-model forecast which consider climate factor only as an outbreak of malaria revealed that the malaria belt zone will shift 10 to 20 south wards in West Africa.  

Teaching climate change: An interdisciplinary challenge

R. Engelhardt (School of Global Health, UCPH, Copenhagen K, Denmark)

Abstract details
Teaching climate change: An interdisciplinary challenge

R. Engelhardt (1)
(1) School of Global Health, UCPH, Copenhagen Center for Disaster Research, Copenhagen K, Denmark

Abstract content

Climate change education is inherently interdisciplinary. It requires teachers to possess a broad range of competencies and to apply alternating teaching methods bringing into play the skills and knowledge of the whole classroom. If one defines interdisciplinary learning as the ability to know and coordinate a growing number of perspectives, it becomes the teacher’s primary task to support students in their explorative and coordinative efforts. A research project running from 2013 to 2016 at the University of Copenhagen has investigated the pedagogical and didactical challenges in two interdisciplinary Master’s Programs - one of them called ‘Master of Disaster’ (MDMa) at the Faculty of Health and the other ‘Master of Science (MSc) in Climate Change’ (CCIMA) at the Faculty of Science. Preliminary findings show a weak institutional support for interdisciplinary teaching and a lack of coordination among topics covered in the curricula. When worst, teaching becomes a kind of serial - or rather ‘parallel disciplinarity’ - where modularly formatted perspectives produce mutually incomprehensible monologues. When best, lead instructors use a variety of inductive teaching methods and provide an impartial overview of the conceptual schemes involved. 

Testing the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Southern Ocean dynamics: past changes and future implications

C. Fogwill (University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia)

Abstract details
Testing the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to Southern Ocean dynamics: past changes and future implications

C. Fogwill (1) ; C. Turney, (1) ; K. Meissner, (1) ; N. Golledge, (2) ; P. Spence, (1) ; J. Roberts, (3) ; M. England (4) ; R. Jones, (5) ; L. Carter, (2)
(1) University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, NSW, Australia; (2) Victoria University of Wellington, Antarctic research centre, Wellington, New Zealand; (3) Australian Antarctic Division, Institute of marine and atomospheric studies, Hobart, Australia; (4) The University of New South Wales, Climate change research centre, Sydney, Australia; (5) University of Exeter, Geography, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The stability of Antarctic ice sheets and their potential contribution to sea level under projected future warming remains highly uncertain. The Last Interglacial (135,000–116,000 years ago) provides a potential analogue, with global temperatures 2 °C higher and rates of sea-level rise >5.6 m ka−1, leading to sea levels 6.6–9.4 m higher than present. The source(s) of this sea-level rise remain fiercely debated.

Here we report a series of independent model simulations exploring the effects of migrating Southern Hemisphere Westerlies (SHWs) on Southern Ocean circulation and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. We suggest that southerly shifts in winds may have significantly impacted the sub-polar gyres, inducing pervasive warming (0.2–0.8 °C in the upper 1,200 m) adjacent to sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS), which due to their geometries and connectivity to the Southern Ocean are highly sensitive to ocean forcing. We conclude that the EAIS potentially made a substantial, hitherto unsuspected, contribution to interglacial sea levels, and given 21st-century projections in the Southern Annular Mode and associated SHW migration, we highlight how pervasive circum-Antarctic warming may threaten EAIS stability.

The BIOMASS satellite mission: quantifying global biomass, an essential variable of the climate system

T. Le Toan (CESBIO (Centre d'Etudes Spatiales sur la BIOsphère), Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
The BIOMASS satellite mission: quantifying global biomass, an essential variable of the climate system

T. Le Toan (1) ; P. Ciais (2) ; S. Quegan (3) ; K. Scipal (4)
(1) CESBIO, Toulouse, France; (2) IPSL, Lsce, Gif sur Yvette, France; (3) University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom; (4) ESA , Estec, Noordwijk, Netherlands

Abstract content

Quantifying the global carbon cycle is essential to understanding many of the changes taking place in the Earth system and improving future projections. There is strong evidence that over the last 50 years, the terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net carbon sink, removing from the atmosphere approximately one third of the CO2 emitted by fossil fuel combustion. However, the status, dynamics and evolution of the terrestrial biosphere are the least understood and most uncertain element in the carbon cycle. Coupling between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate has been identified by the IPCC as one of the major areas of uncertainties in the distribution of carbon stocks and carbon exchange, in the estimates of carbon emissions due to forest disturbances, and in the uptake of carbon through forest growth. A fundamental parameter characterising the spatial distribution of carbon in the biosphere is biomass, and forest comprise~80% of the terrestrial above ground biomass. Most of the biomass is in tropical forest that are projected by models to be vulnerable to drought in the future.

Because of its importance for climate, biomass is identified by the UNFCCC as an Essential Climate Variable needed to reduce uncertainties in our knowledge of the climate system (GCOS, 2010). Furthermore, sequestration of carbon in forest biomass is a critical mechanism for mitigating climate change, as recognised by REDD+ initiatives, which use market and financial incentives to reduce the emissions of GHG from deforestation and forest degradation.

The BIOMASS mission is the Seventh   ESA Earth Explorer mission, selected in May 2013, for a launch in 2020. The primary aim of the BIOMASS mission is to determine, for the first time and in a consistent manner, the global distribution of above-ground forest biomass (AGB) and its changes in order to provide greatly improved quantification of the size and distribution of the terrestrial carbon pool, and much improved estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes. In particular, by monitoring and quantifying disturbances and growth in forests, BIOMASS will yield new knowledge about the size and location of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks, and how forest disturbance trigger loss of biomass and subsequent forest regeneration.

Biomass will measure and map forest carbon stock, as well as forest height, over tropical, temperate and boreal forests at a spatial resolution of around 200 m every 6 months throughout the five years of the mission. However, the particular focus is on the carbon-rich dense tropical forests which contribute by far the largest current stock of biomass, but also the largest proportion of carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. By using a long wavelength Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR at P-band), BIOMASS allows high values of AGB in tropical forests to be measured.

The combination of three measurement techniques, namely polarimetric SAR, polarimetric interferometric SAR  and tomographic SAR  all using the same sensor, will significantly reduce the uncertainties in biomass retrievals and contribute to meeting  the target of 20% accuracy in AGB at a resolution of 200 m. The spatial consistency of these products together with their provision as time series, means that they will contribute significantly to improving the accuracy of the Land Use Change flux and better quantifying dynamic spatial processes in the world’s forests. These BIOMASS products can also be used as unbiased reference data for national reporting for initiatives such as REDD+.

Comparing BIOMASS data with biomass calculated by carbon models, or assimilating biomass in those models, will provide a way of testing the models and also give indications on the sources of discrepancy. Comparison of existing models indicates that they are very dissimilar regarding the absolute magnitude of biomass and its spatial distribution, and that a large part of the misrepresentation of biomass comes from the lack of considerations of disturbances and land use change and incorrect modeling ecosystem processes such as mortality.

The paper will present  an overview of the BIOMASS mission,  and will discuss the use of BIOMASS data to improve forest productivity modeling and to allow forcing of Dynamic Vegetation Model simulations under future climatic scenarios.

The Climate for Culture outcomes as tool for energy planning strategies and preventive conservation against mould, pests and other challenges in the Alpine region

C. Bertolin (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC) - Italian National Research Council (CNR), Padova, Italy)

Abstract details
The Climate for Culture outcomes as tool for energy planning strategies and preventive conservation against mould, pests and other challenges in the Alpine region

C. Bertolin (1) ; D. Camuffo (2) ; F. Antretter, (3) ; M. Winkler (3) ; L. Kotova (4) ; D. Jacob (5) ; A. Van Schijndel (6) ; H. Schellen (7) ; T. Vyhlidal (8) ; T. Broström (9) ; R. Kilian, (10) ; J. Leissner (11)
(1) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di scienze dell' atmosfera e del clima, Padua, Italy; (2) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di scienze dell'atmosfera e del clima, Padua, Italy; (3) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Hygrothermal building analysis, Valley, Germany; (4) Climate Service Center 2.0, Helmholtz center geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany; (5) HZG/Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany; (6) Technical University, Einshoven, Netherlands; (7) Technical University, Eindhoven, Netherlands; (8) Czech Technical University, Prague, Czech Republic; (9) Uppsala University, Gotland, Sweden; (10) Fraunhofer Institute for Building Physics IBP, Kulturerbeforschung, Valley, Germany; (11) Fraunhofer Gesellschaft zur Förderung der angewandten Forschung, Brussels, Belgium

Abstract content

In the times of climate change, a global imperative is to save energy and reduce our carbon footprint. Museums and other cultural institutions are deeply implicated in these concerns as major consumers of energy, particularly heating and ventilation systems often housed in modern buildings. The demand for a better understanding of the interactions between cultural heritage collections and the climate and future perspective of energy consumption are pressing. The current state of knowledge highlights the need to develop strategies for protection and adaptation which requires specific risk assessment not only in the short but in medium and long term. Above all such risk assessment shall be focused on the correspondent building type and geographic location of the end user to provide a scientific support in planning target interventions in terms of lower energy consumption and cultural heritage protection.

This intervention exploits and analyzes the data developed within the EU-funded research project Climate for Culture (CfC) (www.climateforculture.eu) active 2009-2014 to assess, in the Alpine region, the future energy consumptions of HVAC systems as well as the specific risks of mould, pest infestation and freezing-thawing cycles looking at several building types different in level of control, quality of envelope, windowed area, thickness and construction materials.

The CfC project, over the past five years, has investigated the influence of current and future climate change on cultural heritage objects [Kilian et al. 2013; Leissner et al. 2013 and 2014]. This large scale EU research project has now made available for a wide community of stakeholders scientific knowledge, technological innovation and new data concerning future indoor projections of thermo-hygrometric variables and HVAC energy consumption from regional climate models in a range of generic and exemplary buildings. In particular the data which generate the Climate for Culture maps, supported by other CfC outcomes as recommendations to minimize energy consumption, preservation strategies and the exDSS software for implementing the decision support system, provide unique and useful tools for helping stakeholder in planning energy saving and preventive conservation intervention strategies in their area of interest in advance.

The purpose of this work is to create an exemplary data analysis focused on the Alpine region, to help final users in exploiting CfC results as tool to assess in which extension the impact of the ongoing climate change will affect a specific geographic area over the near (2021-2050) and the far future (2071-2100). The results will be analyzed in term of energy saving and risk management strategies.

References:

R. Kilian, T. Broström, J. Ashley-Smith, H.L. Schellen, M. Martens, F. Antretter, M.Winkler, C. Bertolin, D. Camuffo, and J. Leissner. 2013 “The CLIMATE FOR CULTURE Method for assessing future risks resulting from the Indoor Climate in Historic Buildings”. In: Alexandra Troi and Elena Lucchi (Ed.s). ISBN  978-88-8830726-8,Cultural Heritage Preservation – EWCHP 2013 –Proceedings of the 3 European Workshop on Cultural Heritage Preservation. Bolzano, Italy – 16-18 September 2013 

J. Leissner, R. Kilian, F. Antretter, Z. Huijbregts, H. Schellen, J. van Schijndel 2013. “Impact of climate change on historic buildings and future energy demand by using whole building simulation tools" in Implementing sustainability - barriers and chances. Book of full papers: April 24 - 26, 2013; SB 13 Munich Hauser, Gerd (Ed.); Lützkendorf, Thomas (Ed.); Essig, Natalie (Ed.); Stuttgart: Fraunhofer IRB Verlag, ISBN: 978-3-81678982-6 (E-Book), p.1134-1143. 

J. Leissner, R. Kilian, C. Fuhrmann, F. Antretter, T. Naumovic, K. Häfner und K. Janis 2014. "Wie der Klimawandel die Königsschlösser bedroht- Ergebnisse des europäischen Forschungsprojekts Climate for Culture"AVISO (Zeitschrift für Wissenschaft und Kunst in Bayern) Volume 2, 2014, p 36-39.

The CMIP5 GCMs ENSEMBLE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA'S VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

L. Taranu (Climate Change Office of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau, Moldova)

Abstract details
The CMIP5 GCMs ENSEMBLE CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS FOR REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA'S VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT

L. Taranu (1) ; I. Bercu (1) ; D. Deveatii (1)
(1) Climate Change Office of the Ministry of Environment of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau, Moldova

Abstract content

In the present study we assessed the patterns of climate change computed from global climate model output gathered as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) in temperature and precipitation conditions over the Republic of Moldova (RM) Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) as a consequence of the enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations until the end of the 21st century. Totally, 21 global coupled atmosphere ocean general circulation models (GCMs) were downloaded and assessed. The projections were made under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 and climatic changes over the RM’s AEZs for the near term (2016–2035), midterm (2046–2065) and long term (2081–2100), which are given relative to the reference period of 1986–2005. The CO2-equivalent concentrations in the year 2100 for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 are 421 ppm, 538 ppm and 936 ppm, respectively (Meinshausen et al., 2011). The first feature to highlight is that, for temperature, the ensemble average changes consistently have the same sign across scenarios and their magnitude increase from the low RCP 2.6 radiative forcing pathway to the high GHG ones RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, as we move into the later decades of the 21st century.

The CMIP5 projections reveal warming in all seasons for the three RM’s AEZs, while precipitation projections are more variable across scenarios, sub-regions and seasons. Annual changes for temperatures are very homogeneous over the RM’s AEZs. The rate of warming is higher under RCP 8.5 scenario reach +4.6 °C; medium +2.4 °C under RCP 4.5; and smaller +1.3 °C under the RCP 2.6 scenario by 2100. The ensemble, driven by RCP 8.5  emission scenario, estimate that the RM’s AEZs will experience the most significant warming during summer from +5.9 °C in Northern up to +6.1 °C over Southern AEZ's by 2100. The pattern of change derived from the ensemble RCP 2.6 models is quite similar, but the magnitude of change is lower from +1.3 to +1.5 °C. The warming would be higher during winter up to +4.6 °C over Northern, although in Central and Southern AEZ's temperature rise will be lower up to +4.2 °C according to the RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 2.6 scenario reveals less intense warming over the RM’s AEZs from +1.2 to +1.4 °C.

The ensemble projections from the RCP 8.5 forcing scenario that the RM’s AEZs would exhibit a general annual decrease in precipitation varying from 9.9% in Northern to 13.4% to Southern AEZs. Controversially, according to RCP 2.6 scenario is projected moderate increase in precipitation from 3.1% in Northern to 5.1% to Southern AEZs by 2100. Winters have been estimated to be wetter in the RM by the end of the 21st century. The ensemble projections show the largest increase in precipitation from 4.0% (RCP 2.6) to 11.8% (RCP 8.5) in winter over Northern and the lowest one from 3.0% (RCP 2.6) to 7.4% (RCP 8.5) in Central parts of the country by 2100. The precipitation decrease will be more extended in the RM’s AEZs during summer; the greatest rainfall reduction from 13.2% (RCP 4.5) to 25.1% (RCP 8.5) is projected in Central AEZs and the lowest one from 7.4% (RCP 4.5) to 18.1% (RCP 18.1) in Northern areas. Obtained scenarios is planned to use in near future for vulnerability and adaptation assessments of key socio-economic sectors.

The extreme wet 2013/2014 winter season in Western Europe in a changing climate

N. Hempelmann (Le Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Sacay, France)

Abstract details
The extreme wet 2013/2014 winter season in Western Europe in a changing climate

N. Hempelmann (1) ; P. Yiou (1) ; R. Vautard (1)
(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

Abstract content

Southern UK and North Western France witnessed records of precipitation amounts during the winter of 2013/2014. How this specific extreme seasonal event is linked to climate change remains a difficult issue, due to the large inter-annual variability of precipitation amounts. Using observational records and the new EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections ensemble, we find that over the regions hit by the 2013/2014 event, recent trends in winter precipitation have increased. The estimates from observations are consistent with those from climate simulations. The non-significant change of the return period of the seasonal precipitation is found to be reduced.

We also address the issue whether precipitation amounts would have changed across past decades as a result from external changes than those of the regional atmospheric flow, we used the methodology of circulation analogues, computed from anomalies of sea level pressure over the North Atlantic region. Seasonal precipitations in the regions under study are well reproduced by flow analogues. We find that Southern U.K. precipitations occurring with analogue flows taken in the early part of the century are on average weaker than those taken from analogue flows from analogue flows in the past few decades.

The impact of the European Key Competences for Lifelong Learning on Sustainable Development

B. Sanchez-Royo (University of Brighton, Brighton, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The impact of the European Key Competences for Lifelong Learning on Sustainable Development

B. Sanchez-Royo (1)
(1) University of Brighton, Cultural Informatics Research Group, Brighton, United Kingdom

Abstract content

There is international consensus about the importance of culture for global sustainable development. Europe’s Intangible Cultural Heritage (ICH) – the skills, music, dance, drama, gastronomy, festivals, crafts, etc which have been passed from one generation to the next – is a hugely important resource that has an impact on sustainable environment in two ways. ICH is a ‘product’ for the cultural and creative industrial sectors (arts markets, design and crafts), and also as a ‘process’ for the economy and society as an inspiration for creativity and innovation (for instance, in education, science, tourism and social cohesion). Education plays a key role in safeguarding ICH as it enables its transmission, awareness raising and capacity building to a widest community. The connection between ICH, education and sustainable development is acknowledged by international organisations, academics and political bodies alike. In order to implement the concept of sustainable development effectively, it has to be linked with policies and measures. To this end, the Key Competences for Lifelong Learning (KCLL) in the European Reference Framework can serve as a common foundation for the development of ICH and education and ultimately to sustainable development. These competences cover all forms of behaviour that equip individuals to participate in an effective and constructive way in social and working life, and particularly in increasingly diverse societies, and to resolve conflict where necessary. This paper explores how KCLL contributes to activate a sustainable regional development. This paper is part of the ‘ICH-Bildung’ European research project on intangible cultural heritage and education funded by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie actions - Research Fellowship Programme.

The Implications of Climate Change on Water Quality and Ecosystem of Nasser Lake, Egypt

M. Rashed (Aswan University, Aswan, Egypt)

Abstract details
The Implications of Climate Change on Water Quality and Ecosystem of Nasser Lake, Egypt

M. Rashed (1)
(1) Aswan University, Faculty of Science, Aswan, Egypt

Abstract content

Climate change can affect water resources and its water cycle. Through it climate change can affect the quantity and quality of water resources available to meet human and environmental demands, affecting water availability and quality for flora and fauna, lower minimum flows in rivers, drinking water intake, energy production (hydropower), thermal plant cooling and navigation. High Dam Lake is one of the largest man-made Lake in Africa, It includes Lake Nasser which extends for about 330 Km in Egypt. Lake Nasser water is a major source used for drinking, irrigation and domestic purposes in Egypt. Aquatic ecosystems of the Lake region support delicate, deeply interconnected webs of life which are highly adapted to the physical, chemical and biochemical characteristics and cycles of the lakes themselves. Warmer water temperatures affect physical, chemical, and biological processes. It reduces dissolved oxygen concentrations, which are a critical aquatic ecosystem requirement. Changes in rate of chemical reactions in the water column, sediment-water interface, and water-atmosphere interface are also expected. The present study aims to monitoring climatic change on Lake Nasser through the past 20 years (since the year 1991). The monitoring includes the physicochemical parameters (Temperature, pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, CO2 and Nitrate and other chemical parameters)  in Lake water and sediment , and fish since the year 1991 to the year 2014.   The obtained results indicated that as the Lake water temperature increases from the year 1991 to the year 2013, dissolved oxygen decreased from 10.8 to 6.1 ppm. Also, other parameters affected by temperature.

 

The Importance of Environmental Education for Sustainability

M. Eid (Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt)

Abstract details
The Importance of Environmental Education for Sustainability

M. Eid (1)
(1) Suez Canal University, Faculty of Agriculture, Ismailia, Egypt

Abstract content

It is an undoubted fact that human beings are having a significant impact on the nature environment. As the global population continues to rise, human place more and more pressure on a finite number of resources. Human environmental impacts can largely be attributing to consumption patterns.  However, the ability to meet the needs of the current generation while preserving the ability of future generation to meet their needs, it would be reasonable to search for way to minimize human impact on the environmental and to build a sustainable world for the future.

It is considered that the best way to raise awareness of sustainability and environmental issued and finally, changing behavior to more sustainable practices is through environment education. Therefore, environmental education is not just about learning, it is about understanding issues confronting our planet and changing individual attitudes values and developing a community of environmental aware towards achieving suitability for the future.

This poster will discuss approaches and principles of environmental education and study case.

The Irreversibility of Sea Level Rise

K. Zickfeld (Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, France)

Abstract details
The Irreversibility of Sea Level Rise

K. Tokarska (1) ; K. Zickfeld (2)
(1) University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada; (2) Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Abstract content

Recent research has shown that sea level continues to rise even if carbon dioxide emission will be halted completely. Here we explore whether artificial atmospheric carbon dioxide  (CO2) removal (also referred to as “negative emissions”) has the potential to reverse thermosteric sea level rise on timescales relevant to human civilization. Specifically, we investigate how much CO2 needs to be removed from the atmosphere for sea level rise to be reversed and stabilized permanently, and the degree to which the reversibility of sea level rise depends on the amount and duration of CO2 emissions prior to the time of artificial CO2 removal.  To investigate these questions, an Earth System model of intermediate complexity is forced with a range of emission scenarios entailing different amounts of net negative CO2 emissions. We find that in order to reverse and stabilize sea level rise, atmospheric CO2 concentrations need to be returned to pre-industrial levels. Thermosteric sea level rise is linked to the integrated net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere, and will stop rising only when this flux becomes negative (i.e. when there is a net radiation loss to space). Our results suggest that while sea level rise can be reversed temporarily with negative emission technologies deployed at a scale that is currently deemed to be technologically feasible, reversal and permanent stabilization of sea level rise requires the removal of all anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere.

The Management of Traditional Hand Dug Wells

A. L. D. Wamba (Association AFVMC - Aide aux Familles et Victimes des Migrations Clandestines, Douala, Littoral, Cameroon)

Abstract details
The Management of Traditional Hand Dug Wells

ALD. Wamba (1)
(1) Association AFVMC - Aide aux Familles et Victimes des Migrations Clandestines, Administration, Douala, Littoral, Cameroon

Abstract content

The population of Cameroon is about 22 millions of habitants. The country has at least 120 billion m3 of useable groundwater resources unevenly distributed. The proportion of Cameroon’s population with access to clean water was estimated at 57.8 per cent in 2005. It was 40 per cent for rural areas.Groundwater Management provides information on the distribution of groundwater resources and the feasibility of the water supply technology through the building of traditional Hand Dug Wells (HDWs).Our objectives are to show how a successful management of HDWs are economically-viable for the water supply and for the sustainable development of communities.

The methodology of fieldwork involves three stages: the decision to establish a new, or renovate and existing Hand Dug Wells (HDWs) in the village, the construction/installation of the HDWs and Its management.The materials required:- Guided interviews/seminars/workshops with key informers (officers of the administration and NGOs, builders of HDW's technology, representatives of farmers and pastoral associations, professional diggers of HDWs, land committees, farmers, rural councilors and village chiefs).- Group discussions (focus groups to help identify key issues for field work and for the discussion of the preliminary results of research).

The analysis are:

The idea of common ownership of the HDW is a reality for more impactful stakeholders' engagement:

1) In local municipalities:

-the economical development of rural areas;- the availability of potable water for the population;- the reduction of water diseases;- the improvement of the hygiene and sanitation within the population;-the development of agriculture/irrigation/breeding

2) In associations of women interested in the management of HDWs:

-the availability of potable water to reduce the burden of fetching water dedicated to women and children;-the improvement of the hygiene and sanitation in houses;-the development of agriculture/irrigation/breeding;

3) In associations of youth interested in the management of HDWs:

-the learning of the duplication of the construction/management of Hand Dug Wells for the future and for the sustainable development of the locality;-the availability of job opportunities in the construction/management of Hand Dug Wells

The results are:

-the monitoring and the management of the HDWs by the rural communities;-the training of diggers, builders and users of HDWs;-the sustainability of HDWs;-the availability of water;-the supply of remote/ rural areas with water

Conclusion

Our conclusion includes the village subsistence -level cropping- with groundwater use for the cultivation of vegetable gardens and seedlings to the improvement of food security at local scale.

Recommendation

We recommend that the technology of building HDWs been developed further in many countries in Africa to improve the availability of water because significant findings and outcomes of the management of HDWs are in its replication:-by the learning of the construction/management of Hand Dug Wells in primarily/secondary schools/associations of youth/universities;-by organizing workshops to train many trainees/teachers/diggers/builders in the construction/management/technology of Hand Dug Wells(HDWs).

The Pacific Islands Global Climate Observing System (PI GCOS): Where to Next?

P.F. Lefale (Bodeker Scientific, Wellington, New Zealand)

Abstract details
The Pacific Islands Global Climate Observing System (PI GCOS): Where to Next?

PF. Lefale (1) ; HJ. Diamond, (2)
(1) Bodeker Scientific, Wellington, New Zealand; (2) Victoria University of Wellington, Geography department, Wellington, New Zealand

Abstract content

The Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) is the ‘ground zero’ engine of the global climate system. It is home to some of the largest natural drivers of the climate system; the biggest ocean on the planet, including the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Despite this, the TWP is one of the least observed and monitored regions of the world. Yet, the needs for climate system monitoring, climate change detection and monitoring the impacts of and the response to climate change, especially marine ecosystem, ocean acidification and mean sea level rise, and research toward improved understanding, modelling and prediction of the climate system are fundamental in understanding the properties and evolution of the earth’s climate system.

 

The Pacific Islands-Global Climate Observing System (PI-GCOS) is one of only a few international-sponsored regional programs established in the early 2000s to assist Pacific Islands and the international scientific community to observe and monitor the TWP region. The PI GCOS program started in Apia, Samoa, in 2000. It is a sub-program of the international GCOS aimed specifically at meeting climate and related observing needs of Pacific Islands. The outcomes of the Apia GCOS workshop, combined with the findings and recommendations of the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environmental Program (SPREP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) led Pacific Meteorological Services Needs Analysis Project (PMSNAP) report in 2000, provided the foundation for the development of the PI-GCOS Program. As a result, a PI GCOS Action Plan (Salinger et al., 2002) was developed to help establish and guide the program by identifying GCOS requirements in the region and outline an approach to addess these needs in a short strategy document (see http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/documents/PI-GCOS AP.pdf). A regional PI GCOS Officer was hired and hosted by the SPREP in Apia, Samoa from 2004 to 2012 to manage the program. Unfortunately, due to a lack of sustained resources, the program was only active until 2012 at which point it went dormant.

 

This presentation will summarise key preliminary findings & recommendations of the Review of the PI GCOS (“the Review”) that is currently underway to look at resurrecting the program on behalf of the region as part of a formal bilateral climate activity between New Zealand and the United States agreed to in September 2014. The Review assesses the balance and relevance of the PI GCOS, its achievements, relations between PI GCOS and partner organizations and Members, its functions and governance mechanisms, and vision and future plans. The Review arises from the realization that there is an urgent need to re-establish the PI GCOS Program in light of the increasing demand for climate and related services in the Pacific Islands and internationally. The need for improved climate observations in the Pacific region has already been identified and if efforts such as the delivery of climate monitoring, research and services in the Pacific through the UNFCCC, the IPCC and Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) are to be successful, then re-establishing the PI GCOS is an essential pre-requisite. 

The Past is an Essential Element of the Future

E. Griffin (National Research Council Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada)

Abstract details
The Past is an Essential Element of the Future

E. Griffin (1)
(1) National Research Council Canada, Dominion Astrophysical Observatory, Victoria, BC, Canada

Abstract content

In the natural world, changes happen almost constantly, sometimes rapidly, often very gradually. Those gradual changes demonstrate two important aspects of our living world and its climate: (1) how systems are evolving by natural processes and internal stimuli, and (2) how modulations arebeing forced on them through external stimuli such as alterations to conditions, food patterns and their supplies, or imposed anthropogenic interference.  Evolutionary changes have their own characteristic time-scales and are controlled, but forced changes can be accelerated beyond tolerance.  Measuring that second type is the subject of this paper.

To understand the nature and rate of changes that are imposed by external stimuli, research MUST access observations and records throughout all the time-spans that are modelled.  Modern modelling needs data in electronic formats, but since electronic (“born digital”) recording and archiving only commenced about 30 years ago, the output from those models can only be reliable over that time-span.  Unfortunately, the anthropogenic interference that may have caused the changes we nowseek to measure was already happening 30 years ago, so to obtain a more reliable base-line we must dig out much earlier data.  Therein lies the challenge, because pre-digital data were recorded on paper, film, photographic plates or books, or (a bit more recently) on magnetic tapes that used primitive formatting without meta-data.  Transforming any of those historical observations into modern electronic formats is an extra procedure that may require expert assistance and equipment as well as extra funding, with the result that a great many pre-digital data are still in theirvirgin analogue states and are thus inaccessible to modern research.  They are constantly at risk of physical degradation and damage, and - worse still - of being dismissed as “unwanted” and thrown away.

The CODATA Task Group “Data At Risk” (DAR-TG) is investigating the plight of historical scientific data, and is actively raising awareness of them in order to help secure for science the information that they alone provide.  The matter is growing increasingly urgent; although that information is totally unique to the relevant scientific domains on account of the long time-spans which are represented, fashion and convenience still overlook or ignore them.  However, when historical data have been recovered and researched (and there have been some very notable and ingenious efforts, as this paper will describe), the results can be fascinating, even startling.  

This conference is an ideal opportunity to reflect on the dangers of NOT including sufficiently historical data when trying to model climate change.  Without them, hopes of modelling and predicting conditions in the future will without doubt be seriously compromised

 

The potential for the implementation of an effective mechanism for improving local communities knowledge of adaptation to climate change

A. Vakhitov (Ecoforum of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan)

Abstract details
The potential for the implementation of an effective mechanism for improving local communities knowledge of adaptation to climate change

A. Vakhitov (1)
(1) Ecoforum of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Abstract content

      Climate variability is one of the many stresses faced by local communities.  While it is not always the most important stressor or risk affecting a community, it should nevertheless be considered  when designing and implementing a local-level project, particularly in communities characterized by  climate- sensitive and/or natural resource-dependent livelihoods.  The onset of longer-term climate  change, which will compound existing stresses associated with climate variability, provides an added incentive for addressing climate risk in our research. Mountain territories not only are some kind of "barometre" of global climate changes, but their reaction have a significant impact on the further strengthening of these processes. People are faced with the need to find ways to adapt to the negative impacts of this phenomenon. Vulnerable populations will be different categories, depending on the projected effects: from scarcity of water resources will suffer all, but especially the affected populations, their livelihoods and earnings are directly dependent on the availability of water, such as farmers and rural residents; changes in temperature will affect the mode energy demand in winter for people who depend on uninterrupted power supply; negative climate change will impact on the country's biodiversity, and thus on the people for whom it is important to the existence of biological resources. In Central Asia, glaciers ensures the drinking water of mountain valleys and piedmont plains areas. Because of the reduction of ice resources now for the territory of Central Asia is characterized by severe water stress, and projected changes in climate here could cause a further reduction of water resources and reducing water consumption. In the period from 1955 to 2000 the surface area of glaciers has decreased from 70 thousand to 45 thousand km2. On the other hand, the human impact on environment is not always beneficial - poaching, felling of trees, no rational grazing, no rational use of natural resources. In this context, issues of adaptation of the population of mountains and others marginal areas to the impacts of climate change, development of policies and measures to prevent the adverse effects of climate change in the future are actual. But. In developing economics the State has not enough finances for environment and heath protection. Meanwhile, the situation has not become better from year to year.  What to do? Who or what can help? We assumed that the best option in this case - the mobilization capacity at the community level.  That is as an outlet could be mobilization of efforts of local communities for protection of local ecosystems and its own health and budget.  Why is this not being done or done insufficiently now? The reason, above all, in the absence of the local population aware that they can and should try to solve these problems themselves and to be able to raise these issues with the authorities. Mechanism for the implementation of this approach is to obtain the necessary information, the acquisition of relevant skills and knowledge.  We offer that problems with training youth and adults can be solved not only at the state level, but also the help of local initiatives - at a local level, that under present conditions for developing countries more  effectively. And, probably, it is necessary to begin from below - from family. Central research objectives - Identification of the potential for the implementation of an effective mechanism for improving local communities knowledge for adaptation to climate change. As a methodological tools used a public opinion poll, case study, a priori and statistical data, methods of observation;  as one of the impact tools used brochure “Environmental safety of family and environment conservation”. The case study include questions: 1. Identification of parameters (factors), climate change (oligohydramnios, drought, mudslides, avalanches, floods, land degradation, etc.) That affect the social aspects (function) - income, health, etc.; 2. Analysis of existing methods of mountain population adapting to climate change. 3. Identifying the needs of the knowledge and methods of influence.  The next step of our research was to determine the feasibility of learning communities on an ongoing basis taking into account regional specificities. We analyzed a number of possibilities and we have offered cost-effective and accessible mechanism for improving local communities knowledge for adaptation to climate change. This experience can be disseminated and used in developing countries.

The role of the GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) in climate research

G. Bodeker (Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand), M. Sommer (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Lindenberg, Germany), R. Dirksen, (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Lindenberg, Germany), P. Thorne, (Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland)

Abstract details
The role of the GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN) in climate research

G. Bodeker (1) ; M. Sommer (2) ; R. Dirksen, (2) ; P. Thorne, (3)
(1) Bodeker Scientific, Alexandra, New Zealand; (2) Deutscher Wetterdienst, Lindenberg, Germany; (3) Maynooth University, Department of geography, Maynooth, Ireland

Abstract content

Measurements of primary state variables of the troposphere and stratosphere (primarily temperature, water vapour and pressure) are typically made to provide the input required by numerical weather prediction models. These same measurements then also constitute the primary source for meteorological reanalyses and climate analyses. The balloon-borne, ground-based and satellite-based systems used to make these measurements often undergo changes in instrumentation, data processing methods, retrieval techniques, and calibration. These changes are often poorly documented and very seldom are measurement series reprocessed to ensure long-term homogeneity of the climate data record. Such unphysical discontinuities in measurement can lead to deterioration of the quality of meteorological reanalyses. To address this specific deficiency of the global climate monitoring network, WMO and GCOS called for the establishment of a new state-of-the-art global network of high quality measurements of essential climate variables in the upper atmosphere, through the 2004 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-92). The establishment of GRUAN (GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network) is now underway and sites are providing reference quality measurements that adhere to GRUAN operating protocols.

 

This presentation will provide an overview of the achievements of GRUAN to date as summarized in Bodeker et al. (in press 2015). It highlights:

  • the protocols that have been established to ensure that measurements are of reference quality;
  • what measurement systems are (and will be) operating at GRUAN sites;
  • what data products are expected to flow from those systems;
  • the data currently flowing from GRUAN sites, technical advancements within GRUAN to meet the needs of user of GRUAN data products; and
  • research that has been conducted in support of GRUAN operations.

A network expansion workshop held in June 2012 provided a scientific context for the expansion of GRUAN and this presentation will include an update on how the outcomes of that workshop have guided GRUAN expansion to date. The goal of GRUAN is not only to produce long-term, carefully calibrated measurements with well-defined measurement uncertainties, but to also produce high quality data suitable for focussed process studies. How GRUAN balances operational and research goals will be included in the presentation. A key user of GRUAN data is the satellite calibration and validation community. Progress within GRUAN to meet the needs of this community will also be addressed. The presentation will finish with an overview of the challenges that GRUAN faces and plans for overcoming those challenges.

 

References

Bodeker, G.E.; Bojinski, S.; Cimini, D.; Dirksen, R.J.; Haeffelin, M.; Hannigan, J.W.; Hurst, D.F.; Leblanc, T.; Madonna, F.; Maturilli, M.; Mikalsen, A.C.; Philipona, R.; Reale, T.; Seidel, D.J.; Tan, D.G.H.; Thorne, P.W.; Vömel, H. and Wang, J., Reference upper-air observations for climate: From concept to reality, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2015.

 

GCOS‐92, Implementation plan for the global observing system for climate in support of the UNFCCC.WMO/TD No. 1219, 2004.

Tipping point analysis of atmospheric oxygen concentration

V. Livina (National Physical Laboratory, Teddington, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Tipping point analysis of atmospheric oxygen concentration

V. Livina (1) ; V. Teresa (2) ; A. Forbes (1)
(1) National Physical Laboratory, Teddington, United Kingdom; (2) John Innes Centre, Norwich, United Kingdom

Abstract content

We apply tipping point analysis to nine observational oxygen concentration records around the globe, analyse their dynamics and perform projections under possible future scenarios leading to oxygen deficiency in the atmosphere. The analysis is based on statistical physics framework with stochastic modelling, where we represent the observed data as a composition of deterministic and stochastic components estimated from the observed data using Bayesian and wavelet techniques.

Toward improved metadata catalogue services for WDS members in China

J. Wang (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Toward improved metadata catalogue services for WDS members in China

J. Wang (1)
(1) Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Abstract content

There are about 9 regular members of WDS in China, which covers multi-disciplines, such as geography and environment, space, astronomy, ocean, polar, microbe, and so on. It is difficult to provide uniform metadata catalogue services and update the related information dynamically. Face to this problem, WDS China family design and build the clearing house for metadata inter-operability. It includes three important part, i.e., metadata standard, data update mechanism, clearing house portal. A uniform metadata exchange standard is designed for WDS members in China. In order to advance the data and metadata services quality, an integrated data and metadata update mechanism are proposed based on the review and training mechanism supported by WDS China secretary office. Finally, a new clearing house portal is provided which can be accessed by WDS portal directly. 

Two Decades of Global and Regional Sea Level Observations from the ESA Climate Change Initiative Sea Level Project

M. Ablain, (CLS, Ramonville St Agne, France)

Abstract details
Two Decades of Global and Regional Sea Level Observations from the ESA Climate Change Initiative Sea Level Project

M. Ablain, (1) ; JF. Legeais (2) ; A. Cazenave (3) ; B. Meyssignac (4) ; G. Larnicol, (1) ; J. Benveniste, (5)
(1) CLS, DOS, PMC, Ramonville St Agne, France; (2) CLS, Space Oceanography Division, Ramonville St Agne, France; (3) CNRS-CNES, Laboratoire d'études en géophysique et océanographie spatiales, Toulouse, France; (4) CNES, Legos, Toulouse, France; (5) ESA, Esrin, Frascati, Italy

Abstract content

Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. After a first phase (2011-2013), the program has started in 2014 a second phase of 3 years. The objectives of this second phase are to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality, to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. To this extent, the ECV time series has been extended and it now covers the period 1993-2013.

We will firstly present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 21 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. At last, the work plan and key challenges of the second phase of the project are described.

Uncertainties on the surface mass balance of Antarctica

C. Genthon (LGGE, Grenoble, France)

Abstract details
Uncertainties on the surface mass balance of Antarctica

C. Genthon (1) ; C. Palerme (1) ; H. Barral (2) ; C. Amory (2)
(1) CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement, Saint Martin d'Hères, France; (2) Université de Grenoble Alpes, Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement, Saint Martin d'Hères, France

Abstract content

On average, the ~12 106 km³ of the grounded Antarctic ice sheet accumulates ~15 cm of water equivalent per year at its surface. The main term in the surface mass balance equation is precipitation, mainly in the form of snowfall. Other terms include evaporation/frost deposition, melting and runoff to the oceans, and blowing snow effects. Climate models may or may not account for these terms, if they do with varying degrees of realism which can only be evaluated against past or present day observations. All climate models simulate precipitation and predict an increase of antarctic snowfall but disagree on the magnitude of the increase. A 20 % increase (everything else unchanged) would induce a ~1 mm/year moderation of sea-level rise due to other causes of sea-level change. Unfortunately, there are no in situ observations of antarctic snowfall that can be used to confidently assess model performance and sort out their reliability. Satellite data suggest that most models overestimate antarctic precipitation. Those models closest to the satellite data predict a larger precipitation increase and impact on sea-level. Blowing snow is a frequent phenomenon on the peripheral slopes of the antarctic ice sheet where catabatic winds blow, but none of the past IPCC climate models have accounted for this process and a possible contribution to surface mass balance change. There are few observations of antarctic blowing snow and those available suggest systematic model biases in blowing snow conditions. Although the current mean surface mass balance of Antarctica is relatively well know from glaciological measurements, there is a deficit of evaluation and validation of the independent components and thus of the physical processes which may be individually and differently altered in a changing climate.

Understanding the role of anthropogenic climate change behind changes in regional heatwaves

S. Perkins, (University of New South Wales, NSW, Sydney, Australia)

Abstract details
Understanding the role of anthropogenic climate change behind changes in regional heatwaves

S. Perkins, (1) ; E. Fischer, (2)
(1) University of New South Wales, Climate change research centre, NSW, Sydney, Australia; (2) ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract content

 

Since 1950, heatwaves have been increasing in their intensity, frequency and duration over many global regions. This period of time includes the temperature “hiatus”, where global average temperature did not significantly increase since 1998. This study makes use of a 21-member of a single GCM to determine whether changes in heatwaves over various global regions are a result of anthropogenic, and whether observed changes and discrete heatwave events could have occurred without human influence on the climate.

The 21-member ensemble of the Community Earth System (CESM) global climate model is a novel tool, in that it provides a considerable estimate of internal climate variability that is not readily obtainable from most other model ensembles. Each of the historical and future simulations has identical prescribed external forcings, the former of which is based on observations. However, they differ only slightly in their atmospheric initial conditions, commencing on 1st January 1950. The resulting simulations provide a unique sample of a large range of “possible” climates that are all equally plausible under the same external conditions and physical mechanisms of the model. This is distinctive from a multi-member model ensemble such as the 5th Phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, where each participating model has a different physical set-up. Moreover, the version CESM employed in this study provides a 980-year control simulation, allowing for substantial research into climate conditions without influence from human activity.

Firstly, this study explores whether a hiatus occurred for regional heatwaves. Results show that for many global regions there is a large range in plausible heatwave trends during the ~15 year hiatus period, thus inhibiting the robustness of any one estimate, including that of observations. Next it is explored whether similar heatwave trends are possible without anthropogenic climate change. Similar to absolute changes heatwave intensity, frequency and duration, we conclude that the rate of change (i.e. trend magnitudes) in heatwaves since 1950 is primarily a result of human influence on the climate system.

Lastly, the fraction of attributable risk methodology (FAR) is employed to determine whether the likelihood of particular heatwave events have increased due to human influence on the climate. For all regions, it is very likely (>90% probability) that there has been a substantial increase in what is now considered the 1-in-20 year heatwave events. Moreover, for some regions, there is little evidence the current 1-in-20 year heatwave event would have occurred at all without anthropogenic activity. Such results highlight that there is already a signal in anthropogenic climate change in the extreme events we observe today.

Variations of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and of the Austral ocean in the Kerguelen sector during the Deglaciation and the last Climatic Cycles: implications for global climate mechanisms

A. Mazaud (CEA_CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France)

Abstract details
Variations of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and of the Austral ocean in the Kerguelen sector during the Deglaciation and the last Climatic Cycles: implications for global climate mechanisms

A. Mazaud (1) ; E. Michel (1) ; X. Crosta (2) ; F. Eynaud (2) ; V. Bout-Roumazeilles (3) ; S. Jaccard (4) ; M. Paterne (1) ; P. Robert (2)
(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), Cea-cnrs-uvsq, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (2) Environnements et Paleoenvironnements Oceaniques et Continentaux (EPOC), University bordeaux1, Pessac, France; (3) Geosystemes,, University lille i, Villeneuve d’Ascq, France; (4) Institute of Geological Sciences & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of bern, Bern, Switzerland

Abstract content

Sedimentary cores were collected with the Casq and Calypso coring systems of the RV Marion-Dufresne during the IndienSud-1 and 2 expeditions in 2011 and 2012 in the Kerguelen sector of the South Indan Ocean. These cores allow producing high-resolution, well-dated records, which document past climate and ocean circulation changes during the last climatic cycles, with a focus on the last deglaciation.

Past Changes in the intensity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) are investigated using environmental magnetism methods, which trace amount and size of sedimentary magnetic grains transported by this current. Oxygen isotopes and foraminifera faunal assemblages trace hydrological and temperature changes, while vertical mixing is documented by δ13C. A precise age scale will be derived from 14C ages determinations, augmented by regional correlations (magnetic susceptibility) to well-dated cores in the same area, thanks to a tephrochronological study of the marine cores and peat cores from the Kerguelen archipelago.

Results document a stronger ACC current during glacial intervals than during interglacials over at least the last 600 kyrs. This pattern is opposite to observations of flow of the NADW branch (WBUC) south of Greenland in the North Atlantic Ocean. It suggests an inter-hemispheric antiphasing between ACC and NADW at Milankovitch timescales, with a strong circulation in the deep North Atlantic when the ACC is weak, and vice versa (thus with an ACC correlated with the GNAIW intensity). During the last deglaciation, temperature and vertical mixing increased prior to changes in the ACC current intensity. A decrease (or northward migration) of the ACC occurred later during the deglacial process. It could be associated to the rate changes of the AMOC and to deep ocean ventilation. Observed changes appear to be closely connected to atmospheric CO2 changes during the last deglaciation.

 

 

WDC - Solar Activity/BASS2000

X. Bonnin (Observatoire de Paris, Meudon, France)

Abstract details
WDC - Solar Activity/BASS2000

J. Aboudarham (1) ; X. Bonnin (1)
(1) Observatoire de Paris, LESIA - OV Paris, Meudon, France

Abstract content

The understanding of space weather, solar-terrestrial relationship as well as the possible correlation with Earth’s climate and solar activity is related to the possibility to study long-term behaviors. World Data Centre for Solar Activity BASS2000 (http://bass2000.obspm.fr) provides added-values on solar activity that can be used for such studies. It provides daily observations of the Sun for about 20 years, and older images, starting in 1919 are currently digitalized.

Moreover, in collaboration with the European HELIO project, a features catalogue has been developed giving detailed information on various solar and heliospheric features (filaments, prominences, sunspots, active regions, coronal holes, radio sources, type III bursts) for near 20 years also for some of them. And previous data have been digitalized from tables obtained from the Synoptic Maps of Solar Activity since 1919. When the insertion of those data in the features catalogue will be done, nearly one century of data will be available, providing the longest time signature of Solar activity, with around 8 solar cycles available.

 

This submission is for the 'Quality and availability of data for global sustainability' session