Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Thursday 9 July - 15:00-20:30 UPMC Jussieu - Posters (Block 24)

Posters (list of concerned Posters available here)

Poster

Information Technology in management of social-economical estimation of the flood affects and water quality in the Central Asia

P. Normatov (Tajik National University, Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

Abstract details
Information Technology in management of social-economical estimation of the flood affects and water quality in the Central Asia

P. Normatov (1)
(1) Tajik National University, Water resources, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Abstract content

The aspects of water allocation between the countries of Central Asia are considered from the point of view of river drain ecology. For the decision of ecological problems, the creation of Interstate Water Quality Control Commission of Transboundary Rivers is offered in the region.

Water relations between Central Asia republics during the Soviet Union time were regulated by “Complex Use and Protection of Water Resources Schemes” in Amudarya and Syrdarya basins. The main purpose of working out basin “Schemes” was to define real volumes situated within the Amudarya and Syrdarya basins and available for using water resources. It was also providing their fair allocation among region republics, meeting all the water users’ interests. It should be noticed, that the number of important aspects were not considered and included in “Schemes”, for the situation has greatly changed after 1980 (years of the last “Schemes” specification and completion of hydraulic range composition). Mainly it concerns the ecologic acquirements and sanitarian clears thrown into rivers and channels. Overusing basin water in irrigational lands planned as maximum use by “Scheme” resulted in exhausting water resources and appearing new problems. They are:

- Deterioration of ecological condition sometimes leading to ecological disaster in downstream of rivers of Aral Sea Basin;

- Great pollution of river water with pesticides, herbicides, other harmful elements and increasing of water mineralization.

      Among all the regions of Tajikistan 93 % of territory that borrow mountains in the Zarafshon River Basin the formation of floods is observed most often (almost 7% of the total across Tajikistan) and their average number in a year reaches 150. More than 300 thousand inhabitants live in the Zarafshon River Basin located in the Аjni and Penjikent regional centers. The local population is affected almost annually with great economic losses.Nowadays one of the most polluted rivers of Central Asia is Zarafshon River. The capacity of this water is changed under the influence of collector drainage water of irrigating basin zone and wastewater of Samarqand, Kattakurgan, Navoy, and Bukhara cities. Mineralization of water exceeds from origin to estuary from 0.27-0.30g/l to 1.5-1.6 g/l.

   It gives the ground to hope, that the problem of contamination and ascending of a degree of water arteries mineralization can be solved with the same success by creating (similar ICWC) Interstate Coordination Water Quality Commission (ICWQC). Structural subdividing “The interstate experts” unite the leading technicians in evaluating the quality and composition of waters from all five states of Central Asia. The main function of this body is to compare the republican experts’ information about water composition and to solve disputable questions by carrying out the independent expert appraisals of water quality of Transboundary Rivers. ICWQC Secretary appoints the stuff and sets terms of power of the interstate experts. In Information Center established in each country of Central Asia the water quality control statistics in industrial, agricultural, municipal sectors and Hydroposts are gathered, generalized and systematized. Thus, the data concerning water arteries quality from each country come to Analytical Center of ICWQC.

      It should be noted that after reaching the complete transparence of relative composition and quality of all water arteries in Central Asia the next stage is the development of mechanisms to encourage and take measures to the states polluting water environment. These problems together with other questions should be studied in ICWQC Secretariat for considering at Meeting of Central Asia Heads of Governments.

Surpassing cognitive barriers for an international climate agreement: Communication matters

C. Pillay (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Surpassing cognitive barriers for an international climate agreement: Communication matters

C. Pillay (1)
(1) Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, Institute of Science and Technology, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

Individual perceptions of climate change should matter for the design of an international climate agreement and domestic climate policy. Especially responses to uncertainty will determine whether one can gain support for climate policy, let alone for an agreement. Communication of its magnificence is vital to garner just this. This paper addresses the individual mind and how it reflects the interests of various actors, be it governments, businesses or international organizations, by focusing on similar cognitive barriers. Using the existing literature on behavioural decision-making, two cognitive barriers that seem to get in the way of a desired climate agreement are highlighted: positive illusion and interpreting behaviour in a self-serving manner.  Positive illusions serve as a necessary buffer for human beings in dealing with negative information about potentially disastrous future developments. In the context of climate change, unrealistic optimism and the illusion of control stand in the way of climate policy. This can explain an array of behavioural responses between various actors. For instance, the reason for climate scepticism; or the overreliance on technological solutions without needing to change individual behaviour. With regard to the second cognitive feature, it is in human nature to behave in a self-interested manner, more so when facing limited resources such as food security, oil and clean air. The agreement should be communicated in a way that does not instill such perceptions but instead should focus on the numerous co-benefits of climate mitigation policy. For example, the results of the 2015 agreement are designed to go into effect well into the future with many possible co-benefits. This gives time for preparation and advancement of domestic climate policy. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has even launched a pre-2020 workplan to raise mitigation ambition by highlighting the benefits of action. Nevertheless, the agreement/climate policy is frequently viewed as costly whilst inflicting unwanted immediate self-anxieties that end up blocking such imperative policies unnecessarily. Thus communication which pays attention to words used influences expectations and information processed cognitively by a person.

The paper ends with solutions and tentative proposals on steering such biases so as to foster support for an agreement. Key questions from the behavioural decision-making perspective are elaborated along with its contribution and important implications to the ever evolving trans-disciplinary framework in tackling barriers towards an international climate agreement.

 

An Integrated GIS-Based Climate Change Model to Assess Sustainable Development Scenarios

A. M. Yadghar (CIRAIG, Montreal, Canada)

Abstract details
An Integrated GIS-Based Climate Change Model to Assess Sustainable Development Scenarios

AM. Yadghar (1)
(1) CIRAIG, Environmental Engineering, Montreal, Canada

Abstract content

Climate change and its impact are serious issues that scientist and engineers are involving with. It is believed that human activities contribute to the Earth’s climate change significantly and the change is tremendously rapid. A reliable methodology to predict the climate change is modeling. Climate change models aim to improve the understanding of Earth’s climate by focusing on scientific analysis of the governing sets of processes that describe the climate over different conditions; evaluate strong methods to obtain higher spatial resolution for projections of climate change; and detect uncertainties in climate predications by real simulating.

On the other hand, sustainable development needs a bright image of the future. Sustainability cannot be achieved without regulating and controlling human activities. Regulations and policies come within different scenarios that are acceptable internationally. Models can predict the future conditions based on various scenarios.

This research proposes an integrated GIS-based climate change modeling methodology than can use different climate scenarios. Its easy-to-use method helps the policy makers and decision support systems to see what will happen in the future by applying a certain scenario in a short time. It also helps the users to visualize the results with a good spatial resolution in order to choose the best policy. The proposed methodology is believed to be first of its kind as it is run very fast and has a simple interface, yet with powerful background.

Vulnerability Sourcebook: Integrated and participatory vulnerability assessments support adaptation planning and evaluation

C. Bollin (adelphi consult, Berlin, Germany)

Abstract details
Vulnerability Sourcebook: Integrated and participatory vulnerability assessments support adaptation planning and evaluation

C. Bollin (1)
(1) adelphi consult, climate adaptation, Berlin, Germany

Abstract content

Decision making on effective adaptation policies and actions depends on a sound assessment of adaptation needs and the identification of the most promising approaches. This requires information on types and extents of climate change impacts, existing vulnerability patterns, related adaptive capacities and already implemented measures. The assessment, in addition, has to be realized in a participatory manner in order to take into account all existing knowledge (technical, scientific, local experiences), allow common decision making on key factors and needs, and achieve the sensitization and political will that are later on needed for the planning, financing and implementation of adaptation activities.

A tool that has been explicitly put forward at international level for this purpose are vulnerability assessments. Due to the variety of vulnerability definitions and methodologies to assess it, German International Cooperation GIZ commissioned the development of standardized methods and tools allowing a better comparability of results across sectors and regions. The Vulnerability Sourcebook, published in 2014, is a practical guideline that can be applied to support cross-sectoral, integrated and collaborative adaptation planning across different levels, especially in the context of the National Adaptation Plan processes (NAPs). Moreover, it is conceived for the Monitoring and Evaluation of adaptation as well.

The Vulnerability Sourcebook comprises eight modules and an annex that provide practical guidance on how to conduct standardized vulnerability assessments. Its application in in Bolivia, Pakistan, Burundi and Mozambique demonstrated that it can make a valuable contribution to collaborative and integrated adaptation planning and the M&E of adaptation. It combines outcome- and process-oriented perspectives and provides very detailed decision support.

The presentation will outline the tool itself and describe the results of the various application experiences, which concern national level as well as decentralized and community-based processes. The presentation will then stress how the different results have been used for concrete adaptation planning and implementation. These experiences serve also to discuss the different perspectives of various stakeholders and the demand-side aspects on decision support in climate adaptation.

Climaps.eu an Online Platform for Informing Decision-Making

T. Venturini (Sciences Po, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Climaps.eu an Online Platform for Informing Decision-Making

T. Venturini (1) ; A. Meunier (1) ; A. Munk (1)
(1) Sciences Po, médialab, Paris, France

Abstract content

In our contribution we will present the platform Climaps.eu: a digital atlas providing data, visualizations and commentaries about climate adaptation debate.

This atlas is addressed to climate experts (negotiators, NGOs and companies concerned by global warming, journalists…) and engaged citizens. It employs advanced digital methods to deploy the complexity of adaptation discussions and information design to make such complexity legible.

Climaps contains 33 issue-maps, each focusing on one adaptation issue and providing:

  • an interactive visualization;
  • a discussion of the map and the findings that it discloses;
  • a description of the protocol through which the map has been created;
  • the data on which the map is based and the code employed to treat them.

Climaps.eu has been produced by the EU-funded project EMAPS (www.emapsproject.com) as the largest experiment tempted so far with the method of ‘controversy mapping’. Controversy mapping is a research technique developed in the field of Sciences and Technology Studies to deal with the growing intricacy of socio-technical debates. Instead of mourning such complexity, it aims to equip engaged citizens with tools to navigate through expert disagreement. Instead of lamenting the fragmentation of society, it aims to facilitate the emergence of heterogeneous discussion forums.

A few examples of the Climaps.eu findings that we will discuss in our presentation:

Adaptation and mitigation in the UNFCCC

Analyzing the Earth Negotiation Bulletin, we identified the main discussion in the UN Convention on Climate Change, traced their visibility over time and the countries engaged with them. Adaptation and mitigation, we concluded, have different places in the UNFCCC. Mitigation constitutes the main object of the convention, is present everywhere in its conversation and structures the articulation of the debate. Adaptation, on the contrary, appears as a group of specific discussions and has a limited though central place in the negotiations. Although, adaptation is present from the beginning in UN conferences (in particular the question of its funding), an ‘adaptation turn’ is visible from 2004 with the rise of the questions of vulnerability and of climate change impacts.

cfr: http://climaps.eu/#!/narrative/mitigation-and-adaptation-in-the-unfccc-debates

The geopolitics of adaptation expenditure

Using RioMarkers coding we extracted from the OECD Official Development Assistance the bilateral adaptation funding and visualized it in a way that allows comparing how the distribution of aid varies between these countries. We compared not only the amounts committed by donor countries, but also their preferred policy areas, the concentration of their aid, their favored recipient countries and closest UNFCCC recipient groupings.  Some donors appear to specialize in particular policy areas: for example, Japan is best at funding disaster reduction; France water management; Spain government and civil society; UK biodiversity and Germany agriculture. Some countries concentrate their aid more among policy areas and recipient countries (EU, Denmark) than others (Spain, Italy, Ireland), which could suggest a more planned approach to adaptation aid.

cfr. http://climaps.eu/#!/narrative/the-geopolitics-of-adaptation-expenditure  

Who deserve to be funded

We have compared the priorities of bilateral and multilateral adaptation funders with different ways of assessing vulnerability. Using Germanwatch, DARA and Gain vulnerability indices, as well as the Human Development index, we explored possible correlations between the amount of money allocated to a country and the degree to which it could be said to be climate vulnerable. We found both positive and negative correlations. In general, development oriented indices correlate more with adaptation funding, providing evidence that adaptation and development are closely connected. We have also tried to find out, where vulnerability indices are mentioned and we found that climate specific vulnerability indices are rarely used by actors in the UNFCCC process, but widely cited in the new media.

cfr. http://climaps.eu/#!/narrative/who-deserves-to-be-funded 

Population Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Metropolitan Areas: a Brazilian Perspective

A. Barbieri (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil), G. Guedes (Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil)

Abstract details
Population Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Large Metropolitan Areas: a Brazilian Perspective

A. Barbieri (1) ; G. Guedes (2)
(1) Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG), Demography, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil; (2) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of Demography, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil

Abstract content

The rapid urbanization process in Brazil and the consolidation of large metropolitan areas have created important challenges for public policies. This process has been “incomplete” in the sense that population and urban growth have occurred without the corresponding investments in urban infrastructure and reduction of poverty and inequality. These problems assume a new momentum with the potential impacts of climate changes in Brazil regarding, in particular, extreme rainy and dry seasons, health endemics (such as dengue fever and respiratory diseases), urban disasters and water scarcity. The main purpose of this paper is to discuss a pilot research project and its corresponding conceptual and methodological framework to identify and assess population vulnerability to climate change in large Brazilian cities in the next decades. This pilot project is being developed as a key activity of the Rede Clima – the Brazilian Network for Research on Global Climate Changes from the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation. The main mission of Rede Clima is to generate and disseminate knowledge about the causes, effects, and adaptation mechanisms related to climate change in Brazil and consequently inform public policies. We will discuss the key features of the pilot research which will focus on the three largest metropolitan areas of Brazil – São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Belo Horizonte. The main methodological feature involves the use of a mixed methods evaluation (MME), which combines primary data collection on perceptions and attitudes of population towards potential climate impacts, as well as other primary and secondary data, which allow measuring intra-urban population vulnerability. This information will help us to assess profiles of population vulnerability at finer urban scales and develop alternative scenarios for adaptation policies in Brazil, as well as to improve tools for the dissemination of information and knowledge on adaptation to climate change to urban population and stakeholders. Finally, we will discuss how the research project will provide us a base for the creation of a monitoring system of the human dimensions of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the large Brazilian cities.

School Earth Care Centre: A Communication and Decision Support System for Community Level Weather, Climate, and Environmental Services

P. K. Sengupta (Jadavpur Centre for Study of Earth Science, Kolkata, West Bengal, India)

Abstract details
School Earth Care Centre: A Communication and Decision Support System for Community Level Weather, Climate, and Environmental Services

PK. Sengupta (1)
(1) Jadavpur Centre for Study of Earth Science, Hydrology, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Abstract content

Development of a weather, climate and environment service system requires scientific and technological development including development of understanding and knowledge regarding enhanced observational needs. To create an “intelligent and wise” rural community secondary schools can do a lot. Schools have the scope for fostering scientific, human and technological resources required for making people aware and resilient to threats and impacts of climate change through appropriate science and technology communication.

School Earth Care Centres (ECC) catalyzed by the Natural Resource Data Management System (NRDMS) of Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India is an approach to establish a bridge between the community and educational institutes for catering community level climate and weather services through generating water & weather related data, preparing maps and sharing it with the stake holders.

In 2007-12 ECC have been established in 75 schools of West Bengal, India representing each geoclimatic, socio economic and demographic situations.  A state level NGO had been engaged to act as the central resource agency and a communication link between the expert community and the rural institutions. The ECC schools have been provided with weather instruments, soil and water monitoring kit and a kit for map making. Necessary orientation, hands on training workshops were held in each ECC school involving stake holders from the teachers, students, farmers and the community.  Development of methods for efficiently making use of weather and water databases and implementation of user-relevant approaches for evaluating the quality and benefits of products and services are considered to be the end product.

This paper discusses the model in terms of formation process, tasks and results that have been measured in terms of development of awareness, knowledge, motivation, sharing and participation. While analyzing the overall success indicators of the model it is observed that rural schools in backward and disaster prone areas showed a higher level of competency and motivation. It has also been observed that development of ownership of the data and making wise use of it resulted into a more resilient society in those areas.

This paper argues that the scientific effort is reliant on extensive sharing of capabilities and knowledge where educational institutions and other stakeholders can play as a key factor for comprehensive services system development.  Such a framework is essential in developing countries, allowing weather and environmental data generated and provided by the local institutions to the service of the local community at the grass root level.

Climate induced environmental domain change: informing conservation decision making in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

D. Jewitt (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa)

Abstract details
Climate induced environmental domain change: informing conservation decision making in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

D. Jewitt (1)
(1) University of the Witwatersrand, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, Johannesburg, South Africa

Abstract content

Climate change is having marked influences on species range distributions, ecosystem composition and phenology. This raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies and conservation planning, the central tenets of which are representivity and persistence of species. Conservation planning is currently based on static spatial plans which do not adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change and thus cannot ensure the persistence of species.  KwaZulu-Natal, a province occurring on the eastern seaboard of South Africa, occurs in one of the biodiversity hotspots of the world. This high diversity and the paucity of species specific information make it impracticable to develop individual climate adaptation responses for all species. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental domains into conservation strategies. The environmental domains are identified using specific environmental correlates of floristic composition in the province, which were temperature, soil base status and precipitation variables.  The environmental domains represent the metaphorical stage of the province whilst recognising that species constituting the diversity may change through time.  This offers an approach to conserve diversity under current and future climates.  Current domain locations were mapped by identifying their positions in a multi-dimensional environmental space using a non-hierarchical, iterative k-means clustering algorithm.  Their future locations were explored using an ensemble of six different dynamically downscaled Coupled Global Climate Models based on the A2 emission scenario.  The HadCM2 and GFDL2.1 models represented the extreme ranges of the models.  Domains occurring in savanna biomes increase at the expense of domains occurring in the grassland biomes.  This has significant negative consequences for the species rich grasslands.  Euclidean distances were used to determine the magnitude of change in each environmental domain.  The magnitude of change models identify areas of greatest and least stability for each future climate projection, and represent areas of changed climatic conditions or edaphic disjunctions.  Species with specific soil requirements may not be able to track changing climatic conditions.  Using the identified environmental domain and magnitude of change maps, a vulnerability framework was developed to inform appropriate conservation actions to mitigate climate change impacts on biodiversity. The framework incorporated climatic stability and habitat loss which is another major global change factor in the province. The mean magnitude of change expected in each domain formed the third dimension of the framework which indicates the potential velocity of change in each domain.  The study explicitly links floristic pattern and climate variability and provides useful insights to facilitate conservation decision making for climate change.

Science-policy interfaces for climate change adaptation in Vietnam: A Case Study of Quy Nhon City

J. Ghimire (University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, United States of America)

Abstract details
Science-policy interfaces for climate change adaptation in Vietnam: A Case Study of Quy Nhon City

J. Ghimire (1)
(1) University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Honolulu, Hawaii, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate science has improved more than ever in the human history. With continuous research at national and international levels, more accurate knowledge of climate change – scenarios, models, data and case studies – is being produced. This body of knowledge has crucial role to resolve challenges raised by climate change – sea level rise, severe weather events, extreme temperature, etc. – through mitigation and adaptation measures in policies and plans. But in reality, it is almost impossible to reach on common consensus on use of these scientific knowledge in policy process because the policy choices are so context dependent (Prewitt, Schwandt, & Straf, 2012). Therefore, the role of climate science research is not straightforward on addressing challenges of climate change in plans and policies. In case of climate change adaptation, the use of this knowledge is even more complex because adaptation bears more pragmatic and immediate values than mitigation in the policy processes. But it is quite pressing to improve interfaces between science and policy to effectively adapt with current and future problems posed by climate change; especially among rapidly developing countries where the urbanization and economic growth is surmount. There is very little research exploring science-policy interfaces for effective climate change adaptation in plans and policies in the context of developing countries. This research tries to address this gap using case study of Quy Nhon city of Central Vietnam; where almost all effects of climate change – sea level rise, temperature change, change in precipitation, drought events – are predicted. Studies have shown that Vietnam is 5th most exposed nation to the impacts of climate change where 7 – 12 typhoons make landfall annually. It is also one of the most rapidly transforming countries – economically and socially – in Asia. It has strong institutional and bureaucratic set up for policy formation and implementation as well as for scientific research of climate change. Using more than 30 interviews at Central and at Provincial level among policy makers, climate scientists, policy implementing agencies, and local political as well as community representatives; this research attempts to identify a pragmatic approach of science-policy interface for climate change adaptation.  Major contribution of this research is methodological – to propose an appropriate approach of better interaction between scientific researches and policy processes to adapt with climate change among vulnerable communities in developing nations; where the formal mechanism of policy implementation are not adequate.

Building a Climate Information Platform for Europe

M. Juckes (STFC, Chilton, United Kingdom), R. Swart (Alterra, Wageningen, Netherlands), P. Thysse, (MARIS, Voorburg, Netherlands), D. C. W. Som (KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands), A. Groot, (Alterra, Wageningen, Netherlands), V. Bennett, (STFC, Chilton, United Kingdom), L. Costa, (PIK, Potsdam, Germany), L. Bärring, (SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden), J. Lückenkötter, (TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany), S. Callaghan, (STFC, Chilton, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Building a Climate Information Platform for Europe

M. Juckes (1) ; R. Swart (2) ; P. Thysse, (3) ; DCW. Som (4) ; A. Groot, (2) ; V. Bennett, (1) ; L. Costa, (5) ; L. Bärring, (6) ; J. Lückenkötter, (7) ; S. Callaghan, (1)
(1) STFC, RalSpace, Chilton, United Kingdom; (2) Alterra, ESS-CALM, Wageningen, Netherlands; (3) MARIS, Voorburg, Netherlands; (4) KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; (5) PIK, Potsdam, Germany; (6) SMHI, Norrköping, Sweden; (7) TU Dortmund University, Faculty of Spatial Planning, Dortmund, Germany

Abstract content

In association with the new European space programme (Copernicus), the European Commission is promoting the development of a climate information platform which should supply comprehensive, reliable and consistent information for stakeholders. 

The FP7 project “Climate Information Portal for Copernicus” (CLIPC) is developing a demonstration portal for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This project is one of a suite of FP7 research activities which are administratively independent of Copernicus, focussed on creating the technical and scientific building blocks needed for the service. There are dozens, if not hundreds, of climate portals already offering a variety of products to a confused user community. It would be unwise to seek to replace all this creative activity with a single portal – instead CLIPC is designing a portal to make distributed resources more accessible through flexible discovery systems. CLIPC needs to deliver more than a directory of resources: resources need to be presented in common protocols so that users can access multiple datasets.

More information about the project objectives is available at www.clipc.eu. The gulf between the climate science communities and the end user communities is a central challenge being addressed in the project. It is important to understand that there is significant diversity and multiple communication barriers within these two sets of communities as well as between them. The CLIPC services must presentation will provide a review of progress towards this ambitious goal, through a discussion of user requirements activities, an overview of the proposed architecture, work on assessing and adjusting model biasses, and a discussion of the climate impact indicators which will be provided through the portal. When looking at the usability of data for the various users, CLIPC will implement a set of services functioning as a “knowledge base” supplying information to users about the data, including definitions of terminology used, quality of datasets, versioning, and user annotations.

Sharing skills and needs between providers and users of climate information to enable decision making based on science: lessons from the Northern Adriatic case study

V. Giannini (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venezia, Italy), A. Bellucci, (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy), S. Torresan (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy), S. Caparelli, (Comune di Venezia, Venice, Italy)

Abstract details
Sharing skills and needs between providers and users of climate information to enable decision making based on science: lessons from the Northern Adriatic case study

V. Giannini (1) ; A. Bellucci, (2) ; S. Torresan (3) ; S. Caparelli, (4)
(1) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venezia, Italy; (2) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; (3) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy; (4) Comune di Venezia, U.o.c. sostenibilità urbana, Venice, Italy

Abstract content

The growing evidence in support of an anthropogenic influence on Earth’s climate, and the need to cope with the expected impacts of climate change on socio-ecological systems call for a closer dialogue between climate scientists, and the large community of climate information users.

The research described here is focused on an interactive process designed to bridge the gap between climate information providers (i.e. climate scientists) and climate information users (i.e. decision makers belonging to public institutions). Bridging this gap means designing a two-way communication, so that mutual learning occurs. Main objective of this research is to analyse the need of climate information for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts on the coastal zone of the Northern Adriatic Sea. The Northern Adriatic coastal zone is considered to be particularly vulnerable to several climate-related phenomena, including, among others, heavy rainfall events, pluvial flood, sea-level rise, causing potentially high damages to coastal eco-systems and urban areas (e.g., acqua alta in the Venice Lagoon). The work reported in this article (conducted within the framework of the EU-funded CLIM-RUN project) focuses on the set up of a participatory process designed to understand end-users’ needs, engaging representatives from both the scientific and local stakeholders communities. The process was facilitated by the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) acting as a “boundary organization”.

End-users of climate information were selected among representatives of those public institutions having a specific mandate for Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM). End-users’ involvement and discussion allowed, since the preliminary phases of the iterative process, to identify which were the end-users’ needs: (1) data to support land-use planning, (2) data with greater resolution and longer time series, (3) data on climate impacts and risks, (4) precipitation patterns to improve irrigation, (5) sea level rise and tides to plan ahead both agriculture and Venice defences, (6) climate variations and extreme events, (7) seasonal trend for tidal waves, and (8) hydraulic risk. End-users selected extreme events as the most important climate variables needed, because they are necessary for the development of flood early warning systems, for urban planning, and for Integrated Coastal Zone Management. Based on all needs expressed climate variables were listed in a table and climate products were designed.

Three climate products addressing some of the highest priority needs identified by local end-users were selected. Specifically, climate experts decided to focus on 1) short-term (2020-205) projections of sea-level rise; 2) seasonal predictions of extreme rainfall events; 3) long-term regional projections of climate extremes (including heat waves, dry spells and heavy rainfall events). Additionally, two risk products were developed: 4) Sea level rise inundation risk maps for the low-lying coastal areas of Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia regions; and 5) Pluvial flood risk maps for the urban territory of the municipality of Venice.

We can conclude that the dialogue between end-users and climate scientists is still at an early stage, and there are objective difficulties in clearly identifying a common ground where scientifically robust climate information can be effectively translated into a usable product by the end-users community. However, more than lack of information the problem seems to be, nowadays, lack of integration of climate information into the decision making process.

Ethno-malacology in mangrove ecosystems: integrating local and scientific knowledge to assess socio-ecological variability and coastal change

A. Burgos (Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France), M. Despinoy, (IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia), C. Sabinot, (IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia)

Abstract details
Ethno-malacology in mangrove ecosystems: integrating local and scientific knowledge to assess socio-ecological variability and coastal change

A. Burgos (1) ; M. Despinoy, (2) ; C. Sabinot, (2)
(1) Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, "hommes, natures, sociétés" umr 7206 ecoanthropologie et ethnobiologie, Paris, France; (2) IRD, Umr 228 “ espace pour le développement”, Nouméa, New Caledonia

Abstract content

Ecosystems and societies face major emerging challenges as climate change and ecological services degradation. Nowadays, linking local knowledge and global science in multi-scale assessments is at the heart of international debates. Although, ecological monitoring approaches to assess coastal change have improved considerably during the last decade, many projects still fail at incorporating local knowledge on the conception of the master plan and the analysis of the collected data. Participatory monitoring methods and assessments protocols of coastal change, especially relative to climate change, are generally based on informing the local community what to observe and how to do it, rather than understanding their own perception of ecosystem change and integrating it to the analysis. For providing a strong interface between science-policy-society on climate change issues, these local perceptions and actions for adaptation cannot be overlooked. There is a real need to develop an in-depth reflection on local knowledge and know-how and on interdisciplinary methods to integrate them in the pool of data information for decision-making.

In the search for indicators to monitor and assess coastal change while combining local and scientific knowledge, mollusks appear to be particularly interesting for setting a constructive and interactive dialogue between scientists and local villagers. In the one hand, the cumulative and complex bodies of knowledge of shellfish gathers include accurate knowledge of mollusks diversity, habitat and distribution, as well as, detail knowledge on marine environment characteristics and coastal socio-ecological change. In the other hand, for scientists, mollusks are considered to be performant indicators of ecosystem quality and physico-chemical change. Furthermore, their ubiquitous nature and broad distribution make mollusks particularly suitable for geographical large scale surveys.

Shell harvesting was found to be an important subsistence activity in Indonesia and Papua New Guinea. Though, shellfish might be considered to be of secondary importance in the overall diet of coastal societies, it plays a crucial role supplying proteins when faced with environmental fluctuation and seasonal inequalities. In the current context of global and rapid coastal change, shell gatherers can provide thus valuable views, knowledge and observations related to the dynamics of mollusks assemblages and population change within highly sensitive and productive ecosystems as mangroves are coral reefs.

By combining anthropological, geographical (human geography and remote sensing) and ecological approaches, the aim of this communication is 1) to describe the development of ethno-malacological research – considering ecological, cultural and scientific representations – in two different contexts, 2) to examine the applicability of local knowledge in climate and coastal change monitoring and assessment, and 3) to propose participatory ethno-ecological methods and criteria for enhancing local participation in coastal and climate change assessment. Our presentation will be based on research program and fieldworks that are at different steps of realization in Asia and Oceania and will present potential sites for undertaking further comparative research.

The application of multi-criteria decision analysis in exploring the co-benefits of climate mitigation technologies and scenarios

B. Cohen (University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa)

Abstract details
The application of multi-criteria decision analysis in exploring the co-benefits of climate mitigation technologies and scenarios

B. Cohen (1)
(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Rondebosch, South Africa

Abstract content

The MAPS Programme (www.mapsprogramme.org) supports developing countries in long term planning to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Programme combines an extensive stakeholder consultation process with deep quantitative research to provide defensible results that have buy-in from a wide range of stakeholders. These results are then used for long-term greenhouse mitigation planning and policy setting. The Programme is currently active in Peru, Brazil, Colombia and Chile, with preliminary planning activities already having been conducted in a number of African countries.

 

What has become evident through the projects already implemented in Latin America, as well as ongoing related work in India, is that mitigation planning cannot be conducted in isolation of the consideration to trade-offs related to co-benefits for and negative impacts of mitigation actions on society and the environment. Such co-benefits and impacts include those relating to poverty alleviation, human health, water demand, employment and air quality. In some countries, such as India, the co-benefits concept is inverted, with the salient issue being the mitigation co-benefits of development actions, leading to a formulation of “multiple objectives”. However conceptualized, however, there is limited knowledge and experience in how broader development considerations can be incorporated into mitigation planning or vice versa. A particular challenge is the long time horizons that need to be considered in this context, as well as giving due weighting to the multiple developmental challenges facing the target countries.

 

The discipline of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) has developed a wide range of tools and methodologies that are well suited to problems that require concurrent consideration of a range of impacts. These include tools that allow for identification of a suitable set of criteria for measuring impacts, quantifying performance of alternatives which do not have natural measurement scales, and for exploring trade-offs in situations with multiple decision makers and sometimes conflicting priorities.

 

This paper provides a taxonomy of the types of problems and challenges in the climate mitigation space that may be approached using MCDA. These include assessing the co-benefits of individual mitigation options, combining of mitigation options into scenarios, and interpreting the results of modeling of following particular emission trajectories. It then goes on to describe the key components that underpin analysis of problems using an MCDA framework, which fall broadly into the areas of problem structuring and problem analysis. The paper will then highlight two examples of the key errors that are often made in co-benefits analysis – notably use of rating scales and weighting, using relevant examples. Finally, the key limitations of MCDA will be described – notably the time required to conduct a proper engagement exercise and the complexity of the analysis (and hence challenges with communication of results).

 

Acknowledgements:

 

This work has been conducted under the MAPS Programme (www.mapsprogramme.org) with funding for Children’s Investment Fund Foundation (www.ciff.org). Some of the thinking that underpins this work was developed during a 3 day workshop on the use of MCDA in co-benefits analysis and hence was informed by participants at this workshop. Individuals who participated were: Hernan Blanco, Navroz Dubash, Matthias Ehrgott, Jose Rui Figueira, Marta Torres-Gunfaus, Radhika Kosla, Francisco Molina, Ana María Rojas Méndez, Britta Rennkamp, Serban Scrieciu, Ashok Sreenivas, Theodor Stewart, Tanya Visser and Harald Winkler

Multi-model, multi-method, information for decision making

C. Jack (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract details
Multi-model, multi-method, information for decision making

C. Jack (1)
(1) University of Cape Town, Environmental and Geographical Science, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

Despite continual advances in our understanding of the climate system and climate change, continual increases in complexity of earth system models, and continual developments in both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods, decision makers continue to be presented with a diversity of contradicting and often highly uncertain information regarding potential changes in climate with respect to their decision context.  Added to this is the increasing complexity of the information needs of decision makers as they consider a range of time scales, spatial scales, and complex system interactions in their day to day and long term strategic decision making.  Urban centers, particularly in developing nations face severe resource constraints, and yet stand out at key points of risk and vulnerability under future climate due to rapid urbanisation, pressure of natural resources, and critical limitations on governance and administration.

 

It is therefore crtiical that the most robust and, critically, defensible, information is available to decision makers and that this information is made available that facilitate co-production of knowlege, rather than just supply of knowledge.  This is a significant challenge.  This paper presents some initial work being done at the University of Cape Town, South Africa.  The focus drawing out defensible scale and context appropriate information from a diversity of global climate models (CMIP5), regional dynamical downscaling (CORDEX) and regional statistical downscaling (CORDEX-ESD).  The method presented allows for rapid and continual exploration of the diversity of information and so facilitates co-production.  The approach allows for the specification of certain characteristics of the information required (variables, and multi-variate characteristcs, spatial scales, temporal scales and time horizons, etc.) and uses these requirements to interrogate the diversity of source data and signals in such a way as to extract the most defensible messages.

 

It is explicitely acknkowleged that the resultant messages may still contain contradicitons, and that some levels of uncertainty due to natural variability or model inadquecy is irruducible given the available data.  The approach does not attempt to hide inherrent uncertainty or contradictions, but rather attempts to 

Water Related Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Management Strategies in the United States: Climate Adaptation to Floods and Storm Surges

E. Z. Stakhiv (Institute for Water resources, Baltimore, MD, United States of America)

Abstract details
Water Related Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Management Strategies in the United States: Climate Adaptation to Floods and Storm Surges

EZ. Stakhiv (1)
(1) Institute for Water resources, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States of America

Abstract content

Water resources planning and management has evolved in the United States through several distinct stages over the past two centuries, transitioning from a concern for inland waterways transportation to single purpose flood control and finally to multiple purpose large reservoirs. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) – both economic and loss of life - were always the main goals of these strategies, as an integral part of a US Federal system that presents major challenges to coordinating water resources development and DRR, at both the watershed level and metropolitan area scales. Equally, the underlying and inherent climate- based components of risk and uncertainty comprised the scientific basis of assessment and evaluation of management strategies.

 

The relative performance of existing flood protection systems of three recent disasters are presented; Hurricane Katrina (2005), Superstorm Sandy (2012) and the Mississippi River flood (2011). The cases revealed new vulnerabilities and weaknesses in the US DRR responses and planning, while contrasting the relative successes of long term, strategic DRR planning and investments in the case of the Mississippi River and Tributaries system.

 

Today, the underpinning of DRR in the US is risk-based decision making, which is distinct from traditional water resources multi-objective decision making. This new paradigm maximizes social well-being, public safety and risk-reduction strategies for the local populace, subject to numerous environmental constraints (and preferred solutions), leading to what could be termed ‘sustainable development’.

 

The new ‘risk-informed decision making’ culture is far more complex. It is based on risk-cost comparisons and tradeoffs among various options. It engages the affected public. This evaluation approach requires a great deal more complex and technically sophisticated information and attention of the public – not just the analysts and decision makers. As a consequence, the public is also asked to bear more of the residual risks and costs, without often fully understanding the consequences.

OVERALL LESSONS LEARNED FROM THE THREE RECENT MEGA-DISASTERS

a. Disaster risk reduction comprises a special category of flood management, as it connotes extremely large events, with catastrophic human consequences and national level economic impacts.

b. Conceptually, federal systems should be able to deal effectively with such events, but a series of recent disastrous floods and storm surges in the US has exposed some of the weaknesses in the response of federally-based disaster management systems.

c. Risk-based decision making at the local level is neither replicable nor uniform. It is not at all clear, whether a collection of loosely connected local solutions, with varying degrees of risk and uncertainty, can guarantee either robustness or resilience. The recent responses to Katrina and Superstorm Sandy reinforce that public confusion.

d. Residual risk is almost always underestimated because it is difficult to quantify a cascading series of highly interdependent measures, each of which has its own reliability characteristics and risk of failure.

e. A flood protection system is a collection of fragmented measures, including new building codes, zoning ordinances, and structural measures that are implemented over a long period of time and loosely coordinated by multiple authorities. This comprises the definition of a ‘brittle system’.

f. Because people bear the risks, their involvement in choosing risk and participation in the tough operational decisions made during the process of planning for mitigation of potential events is critical to the health of a democratic system

“Re-Imagining Radical Climate Justice for the Post-Paris World”

F. John (University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, United States of America)

Abstract details
“Re-Imagining Radical Climate Justice for the Post-Paris World”

F. John (1)
(1) University of California, Santa Barbara, Sociology, Santa Barbara, United States of America

Abstract content

Re-Imagining a Radical Climate Justice Movement for the Post-Paris World

The science is not in question:  climate change is here now, not in the future,[1] and it is already having devastating effects on people’s lives. That’s the bad news, of course.

Even worse, the massive social, economic, and political inequalities already generated by neoliberal capitalism would seem to set the social and natural worlds on a collision course which the elites cannot win -- even on their own terms -- without destroying the basis for all human life.  To put it bluntly, the climate crisis is perilous, our 500 year-old economic system cannot see us through it safely, the window for resolving this dilemma is closing inexorably, and the forces arrayed against our common survival are strong, very strong.

The good news is that there’s a global climate justice movement which is growing in numbers, reach, strength, and inventiveness.  This movement is impossible to encompass easily, because it consists of literally thousands of organizations at every level – community, city, bio/region, nation, and the global – interlinked in a vast network of networks.[2] 

The next few years will be the years that those of us in the climate justice movement must scale up our efforts toward the end of mounting irresistible pressure of all kinds on our governments and on the corporations, banks, and all the institutions of neoliberal capitalism that they serve.  We must force them to take the decisive steps we all need and want, such as a fair and binding global climate treaty and a deeply sustainable post-capitalist society free of structured violence and run democratically by the ninety-nine percent.

Consider the following:

Parts of the radical left are turning their attention to climate change (System Change Not Climate Change in North America), while many members of the radical climate justice movement are turning their attention to anti-capitalist politics.

At the same time, the Big Green environmental organizations (the Sierra Club in the US), the mainstream global climate justice movement (CAN), and the biggest climate social movement organization (350.org) are all radicalizing.

The same can be said of climate science in general (The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report etc.) and particular climate scientists, such as Kevin Anderson, Alice Bows-Larkin, Michael Mann, James Hansen, et al.

Finally, there is an enormous push coming up from young people, and indigenous forces on all of these levels.

The question is:  what are the prospects for synergy and movement building among all these forces?  What is the way forward?

It appears evident that we will need to assemble the greatest social movement the world has ever seen to achieve these ends.  The global climate justice movement is growing steadily, but it is still far too weak to win – at least for the moment. 

This essay will trace some of what it has accomplished so far, asking where the major points of impact lie at the moment, and what strategic decisions must be faced moving forward.

[1] IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change], “Summary for Policymakers,” pp. 1-28 in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex, and P.M. Midgley (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013), http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdfhttp://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf.

[2] Paul Hawken makes the claim that the movement organizations number in the thousands:  Blessed Unrest:  How the Largest Movement in the World Came into Being and Why No One Saw It Coming (New York:  Viking, 2007).  For a partial, annotated list of some of the key climate justice movements and resources of which I am aware, see “The Global Justice Movement On-line” at www.iicat.org.

Strengthening the climate action movement: strategies from histories

M. Diesendorf (Institute of Environmental Studies, Sydney, Australia), L. Delina (Independent Scholar, South Cotabato, Philippines)

Abstract details
Strengthening the climate action movement: strategies from histories

M. Diesendorf (1) ; L. Delina (2)
(1) Institute of Environmental Studies, Sydney, Australia; (2) Independent Scholar, South Cotabato, Philippines

Abstract content

Since many governments lack the motivation to lead deep emission reduction initiatives, the climate action movement must strengthen its campaigns. This paper offers strategies for the movement derived from historical analysis of mechanisms that achieved effective social change in the past. Common elements of climate action with past social change movements, together with some differences, are identified. Although technologies, strategies and tactics vary, climate action groups can agree to support a shared common goal: effective climate mitigation, that can be accomplished not only through outward-oriented tactics, but also by forms of climate activism that are prefigurative – that is, based on action within local communities. Furthermore, the diverse campaigns that take place on a variety of scales and spaces, conducted by heterogeneous groups, should be integrated by establishing national and international hubs to facilitate coordination and communication.

Localised Climate Smart Agricultural Practices from the Global Permaculture Movement: Examples from the Semi-Arid Little Karoo in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

E. Kruger (University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa)

Abstract details
Localised Climate Smart Agricultural Practices from the Global Permaculture Movement: Examples from the Semi-Arid Little Karoo in the Western Cape Province of South Africa

E. Kruger (1)
(1) University of the Witwatersrand, Department of Social Anthropology, Johannesburg, Gauteng, South Africa

Abstract content

A growing global social movement under the banner of permaculture is aimed directly at responding to the effects of 

climate change and mitigating human impact on our environment, in particular the consequences of unrestrained resource

 extraction and consumption and non-sustainable agriculture. Permaculture, a conceptual framework that originated in 

Australia in the 1970s, and now practiced across the globe, provides guidelines for the design of human living 

environments and the activities that we carry out in those environments. The underlying aim of permaculture design 

is to create productive anthropogenic landscapes of benefit to both humans and the environments that we inhabit - living 

and non-living - by reducing the negative impacts of our actions through considered design. In the process, the intention 

is to also have an actively beneficent impact on those environments.

 

A principal focus in permaculture is the localisation of resilient food production systems which mimic and integrate with 

local ecologies and ecosystems, and are designed in anticipation of the climatic extremes expected to occur with climate 

change as well as reduced access to fossil fuels. 

 

This presentation will introduce central approaches to agriculture and food production in the permaculture framework, 

and draw upon case studies from anthropological fieldwork conducted at a permaculture project located in the semi-desert 

Succulent Karoo biome of the Western Cape province in South Africa. In particular, the discussion will consider the design 

methods and technologies that have been employed to provide water and food in a highly degraded landscape 

of climatic extremes, and in the process contribute towards improved ecological resilience and biodiversity. Examples 

here include the use of water harvesting earthworks such as keylines, swales and tree pan systems, as well as employing 

a diverse range of climate specific and resilient productive species grown together to create micro-climates more 

amenable to food production and human habitation. 

 

Some points that will be considered in this oral presentation are: What is climate smart agriculture? - Some central 

concerns around climate change and agriculture. What agricultural practice is not smart? What is permaculture? - Case 

studies of permaculture food production at a semi-arid permaculture in South Africa. How does permaculture address the 

concerns raised in climate change debates? What lessons can we learn from the permaculture paradigm of climate smart

 agriculture?

Fiddling while the roof burns? Tales of coal, justice and grassroots opposition to energy boom in Turkey

E. Turhan (Istanbul Policy Center, Istanbul, Turkey), A. C. Gundogan (King's College London, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Fiddling while the roof burns? Tales of coal, justice and grassroots opposition to energy boom in Turkey

E. Turhan (1) ; AC. Gundogan (2)
(1) Istanbul Policy Center, Sabanc? University, Istanbul, Turkey; (2) King's College London, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

What links a local group of activists, struggling with few resources to save their communities from the ills of coal-fired power plants to broader social movements to save the planet from burning? And what, in turn, connects global processes of climate change to local livelihoods’ demands for spatial and environmental justice? Climate justice, as Pellow and Park (2009) observe, begins with an acknowledgement of climate injustice and views this problem not as an unfortunate byproduct of climate disruption but as one of its core elements, and one that must be confronted if climate crisis is to halted and reversed. Even though the notion of climate injustice implicates need, care and community, proposals for the Anthropocene remains limited to property rights and market ideas of justice. However climate justice offers a fresh approach which in practice means energy access for those who do not adequate and sustainable access to the services of energy, workplace justice and occupational health for those who produce energy sources and remediative justice those who are affected by the impacts of hydrocarbon burning.  This provides a good entry point to investigate the case of Turkey, which has witnessed exacerbating ecological conflicts since 1990s. Economic growth, rapid urbanization and hydrocarbon-dominated energy policy preferences in the past 2 decades placed immense pressure on the socio-ecological systems in Turkey. These pressures often manifested themselves as ecological conflicts due to land use changes, energy production, mining and associated neoliberal legislative changes. At the peak of these conflicts, Gezi protests of 2013 became the landmark of ecological conflicts in framing climate-energy nexus as a matter of (in)justice for and by the most vulnerable communities. Yet failure of the Turkish government to take a binding emissions reduction target as the OECD country with the highest rate of emissions increase since 1990 and its ambiguous position in the global climate regime makes it a curious case. Hence in an attempt to demystify the “energy-hungry nation” idea, this paper focuses on the cases of three local movements (Aliağa, Karabiga and Yalova) against coal-fired power plants, their changing discourses and the national energy planning under climate change in stitching the gap between developmentalism, energy production and defense of rural-urban commons in Turkey.

Climate Change and Ebola Outbreaks: Are they connected?

D. Kassie (Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), Montpellier, France, France), M. Bourgarel, (Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), Montpellier, France, France), F. Roger (Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), Montpellier, France, France)

Abstract details
Climate Change and Ebola Outbreaks: Are they connected?

D. Kassie (1) ; M. Bourgarel, (1) ; F. Roger (1)
(1) Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD), Environnements et Sociétés (ES) / UR AGIRs - Animal et Gestion Intégrée des Risques, Montpellier, France, France

Abstract content

The climate factors have an impact on pathogens (resistance, selection, etc), hosts (biology like immunity, ecology like migration movements, etc), vectors (ecological niches, vector capacity) and epidemiological dynamics. The climate can affect the rate of transmission, the way in which pathogens are dispersed, contact networks between individuals and between different species, community structures. Livestock farming methods, or biodiversity and its ambivalent role in disease emergence are also depending of climate factors. The diseases most sensitive to climate factors are parasitic diseases with external life-cycle, vector-borne diseases and infectious diseases passed on by water or micro-mammals including bats. Most of them are zoonosis.

For a zoonosis like Ebola, several potential drivers are suspected to connect climate change to ecosystems, virus transmission to Human and heath care policies:

1.      Ecology and behaviour of the bat species suspected to be Ebola virus reservoir could be affected by climate change: population density, migration, habitat utilisation, reproduction, feeding behaviour, and nature or intensity of inter-specific contacts. All those parameters would have an impact on the ecology of the Ebola virus. Therefore, researches for understanding the mechanisms of virus maintenance, circulation and transmission and for identifying reservoir and bridge species need to address the correlations between Ebola foci and its environmental factors, including climatic factors.

2.      Human contamination by Ebola virus can occur through close or direct contact while hunting or through eating meat from wildlife. Climate changes can for one side, favour contact between wildlife and humans by impacting the natural habitats of the reservoir species and by influencing their movements. For other side, climate evolution may also exacerbate food insecurity, which can in turn modify human behaviour, particularly by prompting people to look for alternative food sources, such as bushmeat.

3.      Low-income countries must reinforce their health systems to detect earlier infectious zoonotic diseases and control outbreaks, by taking into consideration potential impact of climate change in their sanitary strategy and policy. Indeed, health systems are structurally inadequate in the least advanced countries, where they endure rather than anticipate climatic conditions and their variations. The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa bears witness in particular to the need to step up the early detection and management of the emergence of zoonosis taking into account accurate environmental, social and climatic data.

Research and health management regarding these 3 items should be carried out through the “One Health” concept. This holistic approach includes both animal health and human health in their shared environment. The implementation of a multidisciplinary and intersectoral approach requires above all an awareness of its benefits and greater involvement of all the scientific and policy makers. The issue of climate change and its impacts on viral diseases may be an axis of reflection on this integrated approach, and Ebola disease is a topical issue.

Our poster presents some examples of North-South collaboration between teams which are fighting together against both climate change and Ebola crisis.

Now You See It

L. Perrin (Lola Perrin, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Now You See It

L. Perrin (1)
(1) Lola Perrin, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

I have spent the last year sourcing and interviewing campaigners, inventors and innovators at the frontline of climate justice and placing their words within a music composition for piano and recorded spoken words.  The project is a device to drive population awareness of the issues.  Interviewees range from grassroots mitigation experts in Africa to Costa Rican media agitators to campaigners in the Arctic. Please note that as of today, The Guardian newspaper is currently  picking up on my work, being released end March 2015. I propose for you a Q&A, to be discussed,  following a performance featuring my work - as a musician/layperson/mother of two boys/deeply concerned about our future.  I will be situated at a music keyboard/acoustic piano, performing with my artistic, pre-recorded spoken word presentation created from my interviews with major international voices in the climate justice movement, delivered through PA system.

Here follows my press release.  I hope to hear back from you: music is an important social device to communicate between expert witnesses and ordinary people and I would like to collaborate with you to create the perfect performance for your vital intiative. I live in London.

TITLE: 'NOW YOU SEE IT' 

FOR PIANO AND AN ORCHESTRA OF WORDS RECORDED FROM ACTIVISTS & INNOVATORS AT THE FRONTLINE OF CLIMATE JUSTICE

2 min PROMO   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsHnQJQ1A54

Composer: Lola Perrin

Voices: recorded in interviews conducted by Christian Dymond and Lola Perrin 

Voices are Marjaun van Aubel, Ben Ayliffe, Guy Battle, Helen Caldicott, Charlotte Du Cann, Seamus Garvey, Natasha Geiling, Peter Gleick, David Helvarg, Jennifer Kingsley, Andreas Mershin, Katiana Murillo, Meena Nallainathan, Margo Perin, Kate Rawles, Carl Safina, Bert Schouwenburg, Joao Talocchi, Abdel Karim Traore, Will Travers, Greg Valerio

Backgrounds of the voices

Greenpeace, Blue Frontier Campaign, Blue Ocean Institute, Pacific Institute, Board of Oceana, Chasing Ice, Smithsonian, Sustainable Business Consultancy, Born Free, If You Love This Planet, IFEX, GMB, Fairtrade, Canadian broadcasting, Latin America media, mitigation in Africa, inventors at MIT and Nottingham University Faculty of Engineering, Transition Free Press, scientists, renewables designer, outdoor philosopher. 

Description

Now You See It for piano and an orchestra of words is a new contemporary classical/minimalism/imaginative piano project with a voicescape made from the specially recorded spoken words of international activists and innovators at the frontline of climate justice. The words are responses to Lola Perrin's questions designed to elicit inner meditations on cruelty, beauty, isolation, loss, overcoming difficulty and personal statement. "Such a brilliant idea" (George Monbiot).

Composer statement

"We must all work for Mother Earth right now, it is obvious." (Nelly Brooke age 85, December 2014)

"We have to stop pressing buttons and expecting things to happen, it's ridiculous." (Margaret Chalmers age 82, January 2015)

These comments from two elders, and my precious friends, say it better than I can.

 

The Prevalence of HIV/AIDS amongst the Pastoral Communities over Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia

G. Otieno (university of nairobi, nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
The Prevalence of HIV/AIDS amongst the Pastoral Communities over Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia

G. Otieno (1)
(1) university of nairobi, meteorolgy, nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

The Human Immune Virus (HIV) and Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) have been identified as a major threat to pastoral communities over East Africa. The regional governments have given little attention to this problem due to the perception that Pastoralisms is economically inefficient and environmentally destructive. The study was carried over Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania and Uganda to assess the current state of HIV/AIDS prevalence amongst the pastoral communities using desktop review and expert judgment opinion. In Kenya, about 8million people of Kenyan population depend on pastoralism. In Tanzania the livestock sector contributes about 6.1% to the national Gross Domestic Products (GDP). In Uganda 17% of GDP is accounted for by the sector and about 9% of the national GDP in Ethiopia.

In the pastoral districts the average prevalence of HIV/AIDS amongst the community is estimated at 5.7% with this figure expected to increase. The infection rates are being accelerated by factors related to human rights and gender, socio-cultural environment and lack of HIV/AIDS awareness and stigmatization. The HIV/AIDS is not recognized at policy level as a major problem facing Pastoralisms yet the statistics show increasing population of HIV/AIDS victims.

The communities refuse to admit the presence and impact of HIV/AIDS within their families with high stigma attached to the affected and infected. The number of livestock has been diminishing through sales to pay the medical expenses when the pastoralists are affected. The study recommends for budgetary support and HIV/AIDS campaign amongst the pastoral districts to reduce the stigma and curb the decreasing number of livestock.

Impact of community own revolving fund in adapting with changing climate in Nepal

S. Paudel (The Small Earth Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal)

Abstract details
Impact of community own revolving fund in adapting with changing climate in Nepal

S. Paudel (1)
(1) The Small Earth Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract content

By now the scientific community agrees that climate change is occurring and its impacts are more in low income countries. Nepal is experiencing significant changes in climate, which have a direct and severe impact on the livelihood of its people, most of whom are still rural. A study has been undertaken to look at the impact of a community own revolving fund – a concept of micro-financing in adapting the changing climate in Nepal. The farmers in three agro-ecological zones of Nepal have been provided with the bucket drip irrigation set for their kitchen gardening, the system which is highly water efficient and less time consuming. The farm cooperative is charging NPR 100 (~USD 1) per set and the money is collected as a source of revolving fund. The money has now been given to the needful member of the cooperative which needs to be invested only in vegetable cultivation sector which gives quicker income. After six months, the amount is offered to the second needful persons and so on. In this particular paper, we describe the fund circulation mechanisms, community engagement on the project and its benefits in short and long run.

Relative price adjustment of energy and labour: The case of energy-dependent and small open economies

E. Combet (Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne, France)

Abstract details
Relative price adjustment of energy and labour: The case of energy-dependent and small open economies

E. Combet (1)
(1) Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Nogent-sur-Marne, France

Abstract content

The increase in energy prices is the corner stone for policies that seek to manage efficiently energy systems in the long run (including climate policies). However, such a price increase may harm the economy during the transition, when substitutions have not yet taken place. In this paper, we consider an increase in the relative price of energy with respect to labour, and we analyse its consequences for aggregate domestic production and employment. We develop a general equilibrium model of small open-economy assuming unemployment and high dependence to imported energy. Simplified enough to be solved analytically, this model does not restrict the analysis to the neighbourhood of an optimum. We examine how the qualitative result – a net positive or negative impact on production and employment – is sensitive to a set of debated parameters on 1) the behaviour of the economy (the reactions of domestic wage and the response of external trade), and 2) the initial state of the economy (the levels of energy consumptions, unemployment and wages, the import price of fossil energy, and the relative initial taxation of energy and labour).

Overview of climate finance at scale

T. E. Downing (Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Overview of climate finance at scale

TE. Downing (1)
(1) Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Climate finance is essential to reducing climate risks, and take advantage of emerging opportunities.  This presentation introduces a panel on Climate Finance At-scale. Four questions drive the search for solutions:

1. Three major domains--sustainable development, climate change and disaster risk management--are negotiating goals, governance and finance in 2015. What modalities of governance achieve synergies? 

2. Achieving at-scale impacts requires transformative investment: What are the modes and prospects for engaging the private sector?

3. Negotiations on loss and damages are well advanced and widely seen as a mechanism for scaled up finance. What are the prospects for a robust analytical regime?

4. Transformation of climate resilience requires leadership that recognises emerging good practice: What does recent research offer to inform sound investment in adaptation? 

The role of transparency and accountability for impact investment

M. Hoffmann, (Software Systems AT, Diex, Austria), B. Fernandez Milan (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Berlin, Germany)

Abstract details
The role of transparency and accountability for impact investment

M. Hoffmann, (1) ; B. Fernandez Milan (2)
(1) Software Systems AT, Finance & ethics research group, Diex, Austria; (2) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Berlin, Germany

Abstract content

Today’s financial markets are characterized by globalization and interdependence, while nations around the world are still suffering from the economic and social aftershocks of the global financial crisis. Politicians, economists, NGOs and concerned citizens have scrutinized the weaknesses of the current financial system. A consensus is emerging that the current financial and economic structures are not sustainable and the danger of another socioeconomic crisis persists in spite of a plethora of regulatory changes. A grass-roots movement for sustainable development is leveraging investments as a tool to achieve social and ecological benefits while promoting fundamental structural changes in the finance industry and in public finances. A variety of innovative investment strategies including ethical, “green”, “social”, “responsible” investments as well as social banking and sustainable investing combine social, ethical and/or ecological objectives with financial returns, distinguishing them from so-called mainstream investments pursuing only risk-adjusted returns. At the same time, many large financial institutions have jumped on the “sustainable investment bandwagon”, trying to profit from the rapidly growing demand for sustainable investment products by “greenwashing” conventional investment products, which do not offer any sustainability benefits. Contradictory marketing claims confuse potential investors and prevent the successful mainstreaming of genuine sustainable investment products. False marketing claims lead to consumer cynicism and growing mistrust towards the financial services industry. We draw upon a case study of “Impact Investments” to explore this issue. We are going to utilize analogous cases in different industries to draw lessons for marketing and certification strategies for Impact Investments. In view of the insights from diverse economic sectors, e.g., the chocolate, forestry and fishery industries, we observe that certification systems are an efficient mechanism to foster principles of sustainable development within a globalized market economy (i.e. Fair Trade, Forest Stewardship Council, Marine Stewardship Council). We further identify the current certification schemes existing in the financial sector and discuss their repercussions, also considering ongoing projects that seek to tailor accounting guidance to different actors of the financial system. Based on the insights taken from these case studies, we plead in favour of the idea that a standardized international certification would help to restore trust in financial services and help to mainstream impact investing (getting it out of the "green niche"). Certification could help impact investments gain the necessary "critical market share", and ultimately, intentionality to consume impact investment products.

Complexity and Green Growth: A Practical Perspective

S. Van Der Leeuw (Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America)

Abstract details
Complexity and Green Growth: A Practical Perspective

S. Van Der Leeuw (1)
(1) Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America

Abstract content

Practical policy aiming to seize macroeconomic opportunities for climate policy has to deal with complex interactions between macro-variables and the many processes that may or may not lead to such opportunities. The Global Institute of Sustainability at Arizona University is presently involved in a Chinese initiative to implement a green growth strategy in a poor rural region where these interactions can be investigated in real time.

The initiative is based on the seminal report "China 2030" produced by the Development Research Council (DRC), the think-tank of the Chinese prime minister, together with the World Bank. This report outlined the new growth strategy pursued by the Chinese leadership installed in 2013. The key macroeconomic variables relevant for the initiative are straightforward: GDP, employment, etc. The policy variables, however, are much more complex than typical discussions about simple variables like carbon prices, government deficits and the like suggest.

The initiative started by outlining a shared vision in an intense dialogue between the provincial government, DRC and international partners like Arizona State University and the Global Climate Forum. This on-going dialogue involves a wide variety of local actors. An instructive example is the founder of a large company for electric bicycles who established a green theme park in the region in question. A key instrument to launch this dialogue was a trans-continental conference on green growth connecting audiences in America, Europe and China. On this basis, a selection process is presently under way in order to determine initial intervention points. These may include sites for a green community center and an international study center, collaborations between specific enterprises and research institutions, platforms for e-commerce and e-learning, product designs to create a regional green growth brand, and more. A commercially operating green-growth investment funds will be established by leveraging contributions from the provincial and central governments. In a step-by-step process these initial interventions shall lead to new, environmentally friendly jobs and revenues, expanding up to the point where macroeconomic advantages for the region in question become visible and can be reproduced in other regions.

The initiative is based on a series of theoretical conjectures and insights. They include the following:

- the environmental crisis is fundamentally due to the inability of present societies to process the complex information flows generated at the interface between society and environment

- therefore, effective crisis responses require an enhancement of the societal capacity to process complex information by combining new information technologies with new concepts and institutions

- in particular, this means to increase the division of labor by reducing transaction costs, in line with the insights of Adam Smith, Xiaokai Yang and others

- it also means to embed climate policy in a comprehensive vision of green growth

- this strategy fosters cultural diversity by treating money not as the common denominator of preferences and values but as one of several dimensions of social status competition

- a competition for successful models of green growth is a promising way towards a transition to global green growth.

Interpretation of adaptation to climate change and governance

G. Simonet (CDC Climat Recherche, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Interpretation of adaptation to climate change and governance

G. Simonet (1)
(1) CDC Climat Recherche, Paris, France

Abstract content

Over the last decade, many studies have focused on the institutions responsible for managing climate risks by analyzing responses, limits or barriers. Several studies have explored this path by focusing on the sources of the cognitive barriers that prevent actions, on the reasons and aspects of interests that motivate the denial and on the influence of cognitive factors on decision-making. Today, it has been widely acknowledged that people's beliefs and perceptions influence implementation of climate change adaptation. Regarding perception barriers, some authors keep highlighting the confused definition of adaptation and its various interpretations. However, few studies explored these issues directly with local policy makers who work directly on the elaboration or the implementation on adaptation strategies to climate change. Moreover, a clear definition of what really means “adaptation to climate change” is still working in progress, letting local authorities with their own interpretation of the notion.

 

Based on this framework, the ABSTRACT-colurba was launched in January 2014 by CDC Climat Recherche and two French public agencies (ADEME and AFD). The project proposes to increase knowledge on climate risk management at the urban scale by analyzing the levers and barriers (economic, organizational, cognitive) attached to decision-making processes upstream to the implementation of adaptation strategies to climate change. Based on a field study through 10 French local urban communities, the project is conducted within an action-research approach integrating local stakeholders. More specifically, the focus of the project is made on the intermediate size urban areas (50.000-100.000 inhabitants) chosen through different criteria (local dynamism, awareness, diversity of issues). Based on interviews and focus groups directly collected in the chosen case studies, the project analyzes the way the local communities elaborate and implement their own actions to reduce the vulnerabilities to climate change of their territories. The first results of the project show that each urban community has its own way to interpret what does “adaptation to climate change” mean, depending of the local issues, the local stakeholders dynamism or the allocated resources. The study aims to contribute to better define the shape of adaptation strategies to climate change once implemented and to better understand the influence of the cognitive factors on the decision-making process linked with local climate policy. Through restitution to the local stakeholders, the results participate to reinforce the capacity of local authorities to cope with the new climate realities.

The role of residents in climate adaptation: a systematic overview of default and alternative roles

D. Hegger (Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), P. Driessen, (Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), H. Runhaar (Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), H. Mees, (Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands)

Abstract details
The role of residents in climate adaptation: a systematic overview of default and alternative roles

D. Hegger (1) ; P. Driessen, (1) ; H. Runhaar (1) ; H. Mees, (1)
(1) Environmental Governance, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht university, Utrecht, Netherlands

Abstract content

Literature on roles and responsibilities of public and private actors in climate adaptation has hitherto devoted limited attention to the roles of residents (homeowners/tenants). Yet their role is crucial in addressing non- or maladaptation, as their initiative or consent is often necessary to take private property level adaptation measures. This paper provides a systematic sketch of default and alternative roles of residents in climate adaptation, based on a review of literature on the climate adaptation actions of residents. This covers three forms of residents’ commitment to adaptation: (a) as citizens falling under the jurisdiction of various governmental levels; (b) as consumers (including home owners) in the market; (c) as civil society members. The overview suggests that there would be scope for alternative roles for residents in climate adaptation, especially regarding the latter two forms of commitment. The paper also discusses implications for research into and practice of adaptation governance.

The approaches to learning in multilevel adaptation governance research – a systematic literature review

J. Gonzales Iwanciw (Universidad Nur, La Paz, Bolivia), A. Dewulf, (Wageningen University , Amsterdam , Netherlands)

Abstract details
The approaches to learning in multilevel adaptation governance research – a systematic literature review

J. Gonzales Iwanciw (1) ; A. Dewulf, (2)
(1) Universidad Nur, Development Studies, La Paz, Bolivia; (2) Wageningen University , Public administration and policy group, Amsterdam , Netherlands

Abstract content

Within just the last few years the governance of adaptation to climate change has become a truly multilevel affair from global to local levels. International institutions like the UNFCCC are currently building an institutional framework to support adaptation governance at national and local levels; but also “local” and national actors are increasingly taking an active role in international policy processes and seeking to shape these creating an emerging multilevel institutional context. In this context learning has been recognized as a central mechanism for individual and collective actors in adaptation at different governance levels to better adjust their responses to environmental change and uncertainty.

Climate change adaptation has been addressed in the literature mainly as a local or regional activity and thus learning has been also explored principallly linked to the participation of local actors. From a multilevel perspective learning and learning-loops happen in layers from individual to groups to institutional/social at different governance levels. In the context of adaptation governance, as the one shaped by the UNFCCC learning will be needed across different governance levels to be effective in pursuing adaptation goals, adequate to the scale and magnitude needed, and ensure a better fit between top-down and bottom-up approaches.

This motivated the systematic literature review of learning in multilevel governance of adaptation to climate change presented in this paper.

The paper analyzes how learning has been addressed both in the general multilevel governance literature and in the climate change adaptation governance literature. The paper summarizes a typology of learning as described in multilevel governance and climate change adaptation literature, discussing the concept of learning emerging from this two literature branches, the main methodological approaches used to assess and measure learning, different learning types and the factors that typically foster, blockt or inhibit learning in the way it is viewed by the literature.  

The review contrasts these results with additional insight from  policy learning and  social learning approaches  frequently used in multilevel governance and climate change adaptation literature to discuss the implications for multilevel governance and climate change adaptation governance literature and extract the elements for conceptualizing multi-level learning in the governance of climate change adaptation.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Change Adaptation: A Community Adaptation Small Grants Facility in South Africa

M. Barnett (South African National Biodiversity Institute , Cape Town , South Africa), A. Bourne (Conservation South Africa, Springbok, South Africa), C. Forbes (SouthSouthNorth, Cape Town, South Africa), H. Karathanassis (SouthSouthNorth, Cape Town, South Africa), Z. Jakavula (SouthSouthNorth, Cape Town, South Africa), M.-A. Baudoin (Climate and Development Initiative, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract details
Climate Change Adaptation: A Community Adaptation Small Grants Facility in South Africa

M. Barnett (1) ; A. Bourne (2) ; C. Forbes (3) ; H. Karathanassis (3) ; Z. Jakavula (3) ; MA. Baudoin (4)
(1) South African National Biodiversity Institute , Cape Town , South Africa; (2) Conservation South Africa, Springbok, South Africa; (3) SouthSouthNorth, Cape Town, South Africa; (4) Climate and Development Initiative, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

Internationally, there is increased funding for Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) projects, especially in support of bottom-up or locally-driven initiatives. This recent emphasis stresses the relevance of local knowledge and practices in risk management – including dealing with climate variability and change. It also attempts to avoid top-down adaptation plans that often fail to address local climate vulnerability and needs. As a response to climate change, bottom-up approaches build on existing knowledge and practices to propose locally-relevant adaptation strategies. Moreover, bringing adaptation to communities provides more tangible impacts at the local level.

The Adaptation Fund (AF) is one of the international institutions promoting this approach. The AF is currently pioneering a direct access climate finance modality where developing countries can directly receive financial support for CCA, without working through an intermediary. This presentation describes the project “Taking Adaptation to the Ground: A Small Grants Facility for Enabling Local Level Responses to Climate Change", which is an initiative of the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI). SANBI is the National Implementing Entity for South Africa, accredited by the AF, and works with and through the Department of Environmental Affairs, who is the National Designated Authority. The Community Adaptation Small Grants Facility (SGF) project aims to enhance resilience to anticipated climate change impacts in two project target areas in South Africa: the Mopani District Municipality (Limpopo Province) and the Namakwa District Municipality (Northern Cape Province).  The project’s Executing Entity is SouthSouthNorth. The Facilitating Agency for Namakwa is Conservation South Africa and the Facilitating Agency for Mopani is still to be appointed.

Poor, vulnerable communities often lack the capacities to access adaptation funding and to implement well-informed adaptation measures. To ensure that climate finance for adaptation activities reach those most at risk, the SGF pioneers a community-driven CCA initiative that involves engagement with local stakeholders and beneficiaries in project development and implementation. Three main components will be implemented: 1) providing small grants to vulnerable communities for projects that deliver tangible and sustainable benefits; 2) empowering local institutions to identify and implement adaptation actions; and 3) compiling and sharing lessons to facilitate future up-scaling and replication of enhanced direct access modalities.

The SGF approach is, thus, an example of an internationally-funded initiative that is rooted firmly “on the ground”. It is designed specifically to pilot an enhanced direct access modality for climate finance under the AF. Through the learning component of the project, lessons will be identified, collected and shared in order to provide recommendations for scaling up and replicating enhanced direct access in South Africa and beyond. This presentation will explore opportunities and challenges of bottom-up approaches for adaptation and the interplay between adaptation governance, management and execution at different levels of the SGF project. 

A field study at the urban scale on adaptation: the ABSTRACT-colurba project

G. Simonet (CDC Climat Recherche, Paris, France)

Abstract details
A field study at the urban scale on adaptation: the ABSTRACT-colurba project

G. Simonet (1)
(1) CDC Climat Recherche, Paris, France

Abstract content

Launched in January 2014, the ABSTRACT-colurba project proposes to increase knowledge on climate risk management at the urban scale by analyzing the levers and barriers (economic, organizational, cognitive) attached to decision-making processes upstream to the implementation of adaptation strategies to climate change. Based on a field study through 10 French local urban communities, the project is conducted within an action-research approach integrating local stakeholders. The contribution aims to present the original approach and the preliminary results of the ABSTRACT-colurba project and to contribute to continue to define what adaptation to climate change means at local level.

Current status and future prospects of community based adaptation: sharing experience of coastal Bangladesh

S. Uddin (Prodipan, Daulatpur, Khulna, France), M. Azam (Prodipan, Climate Change Section/Macquarie University, Daulatpur, Khulna, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Current status and future prospects of community based adaptation: sharing experience of coastal Bangladesh

S. Uddin (1) ; M. Azam (2)
(1) Prodipan, Climate Change Section, Daulatpur, Khulna, France; (2) Prodipan, Climate Change Section/Macquarie University, Daulatpur, Khulna, Bangladesh

Abstract content

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the two most vulnerable coastal districts of Khulna and Bagerhat in Bangladesh by analysing both current and predicted changes to the coastal environment and livelihood patterns. In particular, it examines the climate change adaptation strategies undertaken at the grass-roots level, in order to propose improved strategies for mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation. Although some community based adaptation strategies through livelihood diversification have already been implemented to mitigate the impacts of climate change, but there seems to be a lack of adoption of these initiatives at the local level. Accordingly, this paper examines ways to more effectively implement strategies that will mitigate the impacts of climate change in the affected communities. Our first principal finding is that the coastal region of Bangladesh currently experiences livelihood and food insecurity as a result of the impacts of climate change. In particular, large numbers of people are being displaced, either through a temporary move to find work during the lean seasons, or a permanent move to another place to avoid the unstable living conditions experienced in these vulnerable coastal districts. Our second finding is that the climate change adaptation initiatives currently implemented in the vulnerable coastal districts of Bangladesh are inadequate to support the huge number of people affected by the impacts of climate change in a way that will ensure the security of their livelihood. Accordingly, we conclude that less overlapping and more effective integrated actions between communities, civil society organisations, NGOs and various local government departments are needed in order to support community based adaptation and build a climate change resilient community at the grass-roots level.

Considering one's options when the fish leave: A case study of the traditional commercial hand line fishery of South Africa's Southern Cape region

L. Gammage (University of Cape Town, Rondebosch (Cape Town), South Africa), C. Mather, (Memorial University, St john's, Canada), A. Jarre, (University of Cape Town, Rondebosch (Cape Town), South Africa)

Abstract details
Considering one's options when the fish leave: A case study of the traditional commercial hand line fishery of South Africa's Southern Cape region

L. Gammage (1) ; C. Mather, (2) ; A. Jarre, (1)
(1) University of Cape Town, Marine Research Institute (MARE) & Department of Biological Sciences, Rondebosch (Cape Town), South Africa; (2) Memorial University, Department of geography, St john's, Canada

Abstract content

Many pressures (socio-economic, resource scarcity, policy, and regulation) make small-scale fishers and their communities vulnerable on a variety of fronts. Fishers need to cope with local and global changes and require systems that support their strategies to achieve resilience. The impact and interplay of these stressors at multiple scales need to be taken into account to develop a clear understanding of social-ecological linkages if sustainable livelihoods are to be promoted and guaranteed. There is however, a shortage of appropriately scaled, context-specific data, which is needed to inform various decision-making processes. 

The present study researched vulnerabilities, as well as coping and adaptation in the small-scale, commercial handline fishery in six communities of South Africa’s Southern Cape region: Witsand, Vermaaklikheid, Stilbaai, Melkhoutfontein, Gouritsmond and Mossel Bay, using semi-structured interviews, available census data and literature. Participants comprise boat owners, skippers, rights holders, crew, spouses/partners, as well as fish buyers and other persons associated to the fishery.  Faced with multi-scalar changes to the broader fishery system, these fishers are forced to employ a wide range of strategies to cope and adapt to change. These changes, driven by multiple stressors on various spatial and temporal scales, affect not only the region overall, but display much variation in the impact felt by both individuals and individual communities. Not only are fishers required to cope with, and adapt to variability in the biophysical system, but they are also subjected to social and economic pressures as well as those created by policy and management decisions. Examples of such pressures include variability found in the natural environment with specific reference to weather fluctuations and the scarcity of the primary target species, pressures created by a perceived inadequacy of regulatory oversight and the administration of fishing rights as well as pressures created by increased input costs and cost of living. Notably, these fishers have very little to no control over most of these stressors, as many of these changes are the result of larger, macro-scale events and developments, from which they are disconnected.

The coping and adaptation strategies employed by these fishers can be grouped into three main groups with socio-economic conditions and life histories of individuals within the six communities seemingly the biggest determining factor in decision-making. Both cognitive and reflexive decision-making processes are shaped by the experience of their past and present environments of both individuals and their communities and cannot be understood by direct impacts of stressors alone, which highlights the need to understand indirect effects and feedback loops in the future. Practical implications of actions are not always the overriding concern in decision-making, underscoring the importance of culture and belief systems in decision-making. The severity of the challenges experienced with policy and regulatory processes may be exacerbated by a strong resistance to change, and the varying levels of resilience displayed by the different communities may be viewed in both a positive and negative light. Whereas one group of fishers have modernised their business strategies and intensified their fishing by going further offshore on larger, but more economic craft, the second and third group of fishers navigate the status quo because it is “what they know”. The second group, characterised by low formal education, poverty and political marginalisation, mostly waits for help from the outside (e.g. through government poverty relief programmes or international aid). The wide array of alternative income options displayed by the third group in particular has so far allowed them to make it through hard times whilst always resuming fishing with largely changed business and fishing strategies. Tightening regulatory frameworks are forcing fishers to make decisions that particularly those in the third group are not comfortable making, especially when considering implications of the implementation of a recently legislated small scale fisheries policy. Coupled to this is an unwillingness to accept that the biophysical system may not always return to, or be able to return to, its former state, exacerbated by current considerable scientific uncertainty of climate dynamics in this region.   

Sustainable Climate Change Adaptation through Community Organizing and Participation: The Case of Bakhawan Eco-Park in Kalibo, Aklan, Philippines

E. Serrano (University of the Philippines Los Baños, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines)

Abstract details
Sustainable Climate Change Adaptation through Community Organizing and Participation: The Case of Bakhawan Eco-Park in Kalibo, Aklan, Philippines

E. Serrano (1)
(1) University of the Philippines Los Baños, Institute for Governance and Rural Development, College of Public Affairs and Development, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines

Abstract content

     This study aimed to analyze how community organizing and participation helped ensure sustainable climate change adaptation in Kalibo, Aklan, Philippines. Through key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and other personal communications, data were collected primarily from community members, local leaders, and development workers. Data were analyzed qualitatively.

 

     It was found out that sustainable climate change adaptation takes place through collaborative action. It involves the participation of the local government, people’s organization, community members, the academe, the private sector, and other government agencies. Findings also show that pooling resources, mobilizing the community, and providing livelihood opportunities enhanced adaptive capacity.

 

    Since sustainable climate change adaptation requires the active engagement of different sectors of society, community mobilizing and participation should be given more importance in climate change adaptation interventions.

A pathway to a low-carbon society for China

Z. Mi (Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China)

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A pathway to a low-carbon society for China

Z. Mi (1)
(1) Beijing Institute of Technology, School of Management and Economics, Beijing, China

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As the leading primary energy consumer and the largest carbon-emitting country in the world, China is facing great international pressure to reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emission, as well as a tight domestic fossil energy supply and a high level of air pollution. In the “U.S.–China Joint Announcement on Climate Change” released on November 12 2014, China announced to achieve the peaking of CO2 emission around 2030 and to make best efforts to peak early. Therefore, this study aims to answer whether and how China’s CO2 emission can peak before 2030. A dynamic multi-objective optimization model will be developed based on the multi-region input–output model to explore an appropriate low-carbon pathway for China’s sustainable development, comprehensively considering factors like industrial structure, energy structure, energy efficiency, consumer behaviors, and environmental capacity. Under this pathway, China is expected to assume its responsibilities to mitigate global climate change, reduce domestic pollution, and sustain a rational economic growth.

A 90% Reduction in Canada's Emissions by 2050: Macroeconomic and physical evolution or revolution?

C. Bataille (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Paris, France)

Abstract details
A 90% Reduction in Canada's Emissions by 2050: Macroeconomic and physical evolution or revolution?

C. Bataille (1)
(1) Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Paris, France

Abstract content

What does 90% decarbonization of the Canadian economy look like, physically and financially?  Is it a financial evolution, or a revolution?  An opportunity or a calamity, and for whom?  What are the uncertainties?  Canada already has strong and binding long term policies on transport and buildings whereas, with a couple of exceptions, regulations are largely missing for industry.  In this analysis I strengthen the existing transport and buildings regulations and add policy for industry.  I use a regionally and sectorally disaggregated CGE methodology to model the following policy package.  1) Advanced efficiency regulations for transport, buildings and appliances, on the premise there are significant plausible market failures & pricing policies may be ineffective.  2) Regulations requiring oil and gas fugitive control and CCS on formation gas processing and hydrogen production, with the right to sell verifiable reductions into the following “market”.  3) A tradable emissions intensity standard for all large emitter based on sector specific “best-in-class” technology intensity targets.  4) I complete the policy package with an initally low but continually rising British Columbia style carbon tax with 50/50 recycling to labour and corporate labour taxes that eventually eclipses the other policies.  For results I will review GDP, emissions, changes in sectoral investment and economic structure.  I will conclude with a methodological discussion of the modelling changes that were needed to hit 2 tonnes per capita, including additional decarbonization technologies and changes to the modelling structure.    

Analogues between rapid mobilisation for World War 2 and the Great Energy Transition: Lessons and caveats

L. Delina (Independent Scholar, South Cotabato, Philippines)

Abstract details
Analogues between rapid mobilisation for World War 2 and the Great Energy Transition: Lessons and caveats

L. Delina (1)
(1) Independent Scholar, South Cotabato, Philippines

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To have a high probability of limiting further global warming—at least to stabilise it to an average temperature increase of 2ºC—climate science suggests that global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2020 and be reduced to close to zero by 2040. Current trend, however, heads towards at least 4ºC by end of this century; yet, little effective climate action is being taken. In this presentation, I talk about contingency plans developed for a scenario in which governments are galvanised to implement an urgent transition of conventional energy systems—the biggest GHG contributor—to sustainable renewable energy systems. This Great Energy Transition, climate activists and some academics assert, would be feasible, invoking the magnitude of World War 2 mobilisations. I critically examined the plausibility of this analogue in this talk. The findings, which I published in the journal Energy Policy, suggest some potential strategies especially in areas of finance and labour mobilisations, as well as in the governance and administration of these resources. Nonetheless, the analogue has severe limitations, resulting from its lack of democratic processes, most especially. Moreover, since the threat of climate change is less obvious to many non-scientists, it is unlikely that the public will be unified in support of a highly centralised action. It appears therefore that prosecuting the Great Energy Transition seems to be more complex than prosecuting a great war. 

Linking leadership to the upcoming global climate regime: Insights from the German Energiewende

K. Steinbacher (FU Berlin, Berlin, Germany), M. Pahle (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach (PIK), Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Linking leadership to the upcoming global climate regime: Insights from the German Energiewende

K. Steinbacher (1) ; M. Pahle (2)
(1) FU Berlin, Environmental policy research centre (ffu), Berlin, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

In a nutshell, the main current problem with action for climate protection is that too many countries are doing too little. The run-up to COP 21 in Paris will without doubt see the formulation of numerous recipes on how to cope with this challenge. But leadership exerted by frontrunning countries has the potential to stand out in the end as one of the most effective ways of pushing climate action. The particular clout of leadership is that ambitious countries can take immediate action out of their own accord without being thwarted by inconclusive international negotiations. The hope behind this is to attract followers for a similar course of action and thus sidestep global stalemate. It is true that unilateral leadership – i.e. acting when no one else does, with a hope to set an example – entails the risk of being in vain if it lacks followers, resulting in considerable costs for the leader. Nevertheless, in a world of increasingly polycentric climate governance, action at the national level is indispensable - and leadership puts this national action at the service of a common cause. But what does it precisely mean for countries to be a leader and how can leadership be put into practice outside institutionalized multilateral negotiations, in a polycentric regime? Answering these questions is essential to increase the leverage of national action in supporting climate action at the global level. A better understanding of leadership in a polycentric climate regime is thus what we aim for in this paper.

The particular case we look at is the German energy transition, now widely known as the “Energiewende”. Formally enacted in 2011, but based on a much longer history of transition, the Energiewende has sparked considerable interest around the globe. Beyond its perception as a potential source of – positive and negative – lessons, choosing the Energiewende as a case is particularly relevant given the fact that gaining followers on the way to a more sustainable energy system has been a main rationale and German decision-makers frequently claim leadership in this field. Our investigation concentrates on “leadership by diffusion” outside multilateral negotiation settings and uses a simple analytical framework derived from the literature on leadership and policy diffusion. In a first step, we analyze the specific motivations for international Energiewende leadership and then review measures taken to translate this aim into action. We subsequently discuss Germany’s approach to Energiewende leadership against the background of an evolution of the Energiewende itself.  From this analysis, we find that while Germany has been a highly active leader facilitating the worldwide diffusion of renewables, a comprehensive leadership strategy in line with the very high ambitions of the Energiewende – towards a comprehensive energy system transformation – has not yet emerged.

Based on this finding, we discuss the requirements for such a strategy, including consistency across government, transparent communication and open dialogue with potential followers. Given that the main declared motivation for Energiewende leadership is to advance global climate action, this strategy above all needs to be geared towards effective climate leadership. Crucial for this is (a) to safeguard legitimacy of the Energiewende as a policy model by giving priority to climate protection at the domestic level (“sending side”), and (b) to ensure that knowledge created in the implementation process is shared with and adaptable to the local context in other parts of the world (“receiving side”). We eventually lay out how these activities could be linked to and supported by the upcoming international regime, and how in turn the requirements of effective climate leadership can be taken into account in the future course and implementation of the Energiewende.

Interactions between agriculture mitigation choices and fossil CO2 emissions within integrated low-carbon pathways to limit warming to 2 degrees

A. Reisinger (New Zealand Agricultural GHG Research Centre, Palmerston North, New Zealand), A. Daigneault (Landcare Research, Auckland, New Zealand), J. Rogelj (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria)

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Interactions between agriculture mitigation choices and fossil CO2 emissions within integrated low-carbon pathways to limit warming to 2 degrees

A. Reisinger (1) ; A. Daigneault (2) ; J. Rogelj (3)
(1) New Zealand Agricultural GHG Research Centre, Palmerston North, New Zealand; (2) Landcare Research, Governance and policy, Auckland, New Zealand; (3) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

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Agriculture currently directly contributes 10-12% of global greenhouse emissions, with additional emissions from land-use change and energy consumption in food production, processing and transport.  Emissions from agriculture are projected to continue to increase for much of this century as a result of a growing and more affluent population that demands more high-quality and protein-rich food. In total, agriculture is thus responsible for more emissions than global air, land and sea transport, and (depending on the method of allocating indirect emissions) almost as much as stationary energy supply.

This suggests that mitigation of agricultural emissions must be part of integrated abatement strategies, especially for stringent goals such as limiting global average warming to below 2 degrees relative to pre-industrial levels. However, while the challenge of decarbonizing key sectors responsible for emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels is increasingly well understood, there is much less visible action at a global scale to tackle emissions from agriculture, due in part to perceived tensions between food security and poverty eradication on one hand and reducing greenhouse gas emissions on the other. In addition, while there is significant potential to reduce emissions per unit of product for most agricultural systems, there is little prospect of completely ‘decarbonizing’ food production at the global scale, in contrast to e.g. the electricity and potentially even transport sectors. The limited abatement potential and intersection of food security and poverty with mitigation goals thus tends to relegate agriculture into the ‘too-hard’ basket for climate policy priorities, and a perception that the global climate benefits from enhanced agriculture mitigation would not be commensurate with the effort and trade-offs required.

Here, we use global integrated assessment models to demonstrate that even though technical mitigation options for agriculture are more limited than for some other sectors, accelerating agriculture mitigation outcomes can make a crucial contribution to keeping the goal of limiting warming to below 2 degrees viable. We show that different assumptions specifically for agriculture mitigation potentials and policy approaches strongly influence global shadow prices for GHGs throughout the 21st century, overall climate policy costs and the timing of the global peak of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in global cost-effective multi-gas abatement strategies, and also influence the rate of decarbonization required from fossil-fuel intensive sectors after emissions have peaked. We further explore how different approaches to agriculture mitigation (encompassing closing yield gaps, reducing demand, and increasing technical abatement options) could influence global commodity prices and land demand, and thus what measures could enable achieving goals of food security, poverty eradication and limiting climate change jointly.

We conclude that expanding the overall mitigation potential for agriculture-related emissions and supporting practices to realize this mitigation potential in practice are critical components of integrated efforts to achieve low-carbon pathways, and that therefore the role of agriculture in climate policies and integrated approaches to mitigation warrants much higher attention than has been evident in climate policy design to date. Perhaps ironically, we note that in a globally cost-effective approach to mitigation, the greatest near-term benefits from enhanced agriculture mitigation would accrue to the most CO2-intensive sectors and regions due to the ability to defer costly near-term emissions reductions by a few more years. However, even the most ambitious scenarios for agriculture mitigation do not change the fundamental need to achieve net zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by or before the end of the 21st century to retain a reasonable prospect of limiting warming to 2 degrees.

Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach

C. Bertram (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), G. Luderer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), R. Pietzcker, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), E. Schmid, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), E. Kriegler (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), O. Edenhofer (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

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Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach

C. Bertram (1) ; G. Luderer (1) ; R. Pietzcker, (1) ; E. Schmid, (1) ; E. Kriegler (1) ; O. Edenhofer (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

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Economic theory suggests that comprehensive carbon pricing is most efficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and previous studies indicated that the carbon price required for limiting global mean warming to 2 °C is between US$16 and US$73 per tonne of CO2 in 2015. Yet, a global implementation of such high carbon prices is unlikely to be politically feasible in the short term. Instead, most climate policies enacted so far are technology policies or fragmented and moderate carbon pricing schemes. This paper shows that ambitious climate targets can be kept within reach until 2030 despite a sub-optimal policy mix. With a state-of-the-art energy–economy model we quantify the interactions and unique effects of three major policy components: (1) a carbon price starting at US$7 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 to incentivize economy-wide mitigation, flanked by (2) support for low-carbon energy technologies to pave the way for future decarbonization, and (3) a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants to limit stranded assets. We find that such a mix limits the efficiency losses compared with the optimal policy, and at the same time lowers distributional impacts. Therefore, we argue that this instrument mix might be a politically more feasible alternative to the optimal policy based on a comprehensive carbon price alone.

To limit the mitigation costs and risks of achieving the 2 °C target, it is essential to start comprehensive climate policy as early as possible. Recent studies have shown that pledged reductions are not consistent with cost-efficient emissions pathways reaching the 2 °C target. Furthermore, a continuation of climate policy at the current ambition level will not lead to a stabilization of climate change, and the delay of more stringent mitigation actions will significantly exacerbate the challenge of reaching long-term climate policy objectives. Current policies fail to induce the transformation of the energy system to the extent required by long-term climate targets and lead to further lock-in into carbon-intensive infrastructure. Not only do too much emissions occur in the near term, but also mitigation later on is rendered more difficult. It is an important question whether technology policies can reduce such lock-in and mitigate the impacts of delay. Although a few studies based on global energy–economy models have considered single packages of technology policies in their analysis of twenty-first-century mitigation pathways, none of them explored this question.

The environmental economics literature has also not focused on the scope of technology policies for overcoming deficiencies in carbon pricing. In this strand of scholarly work, technology policies have mainly been analysed as means to cure market failures beyond the pure pollution externality, for example, due to learning spillovers, information asymmetries and so on. In contrast, here we analyse their complementary role under sub-optimal carbon pricing. There is wide agreement that market-based instruments pricing the externality of emissions have an advantage in terms of efficiency. At the same time it is debated whether or not setting a price (carbon tax) or a quantity of tradable permits (cap-and-trade) is preferable. Some authors find that the interaction with other instruments favours the price instrument, a finding that our study extends to the case of sub-optimal carbon pricing combined with technology policies.

This study is the first to assess which mix of emission pricing and technology policies is effective in avoiding further lock-in and initiating the transformation required for limiting warming to 2 °C. We thus fill an important gap in the literature by informing the ongoing climate policy debate, which so far revolves around modest approaches to carbon pricing and various forms of technology policies in several countries around the world, tantamount to a lack of comprehensive emissions pricing in line with the 2 °C limit.

Our analysis identifies a policy mix that—based on the positive effects of technology policies under sub-optimal carbon pricing—keeps ambitious climate targets within reach and is possibly easier to implement politically. It does so by addressing two crucial questions: (1) how weaker-than-optimal carbon pricing schemes and additional technology policies interact, and (2) which combination can best reduce the adverse effects of sub-optimal carbon pricing.

Towards a low-carbon Chinese economy: the role of transportation

M. Hamdi-Cherif (CIRED, Nogent-Sur-Marne, France)

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Towards a low-carbon Chinese economy: the role of transportation

M. Hamdi-Cherif (1)
(1) CIRED, Nogent-Sur-Marne, France

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Rationale and Objective: Chinese economic development goes hand in hand with (i) a growth of the production that is accompanied with an increase of the freight transport, and (ii) an enriched population and fast-growing urbanization that induce increasing demand for passenger transport (notably an increase of the motorization rate). Given the high reliance of transport on oil products, its increasing energy demand and CO2 emissions, the transportation sector is a crucial sector for China, particularly regarding energy security and climate change issues. In its attempts to have a sustainable development, the transportation sector is indeed particularly challenging for China. To avoid important “lock-ins” in carbon-intensive pathways, especially given the high coal availability and the important life span of infrastructures, China has to redouble its efforts with voluntary schemes promoting mobility growth control.  This paper investigates the role of transportation activities in the transition to a low carbon Chinese society. A particular attention is given to specific measures designed to control the growth of mobility. It is an attempt to quantify the impact of urban voluntary policies on Chinese mitigation costs.

Methodology: This article revisits the role of the transportation sector in low-carbon pathways by using the Energy-Economy-Environment model IMACLIM-R. It is a hybrid multi-region, multi-sector CGE model, which embarks a detailed description of passenger and freight transportation. The standard representation of transport technologies is supplemented by an explicit representation of the “behavioral” determinants of mobility. The model relies on hybrid matrices ensuring consistency between money flows and physical quantities and allows an explicit representation of the interplay between transportation, energy and growth patterns. It accounts for the rebound effect of energy efficiency improvements on mobility, endogenous mode choices in relation with infrastructure availability, the impact of investments in infrastructure capacity on the amount of travel, and the constraints imposed on mobility needs by firms’ and households’ location. Moreover, IMACLIM-R represents the second best nature of economic interactions and the inertias on technical systems that limit the flexibility of adjustments, a crucial dimension for emerging economies when envisaging large structural change over the course of the century. **Complementarily to carbon pricing to reach a stringent climate objective (3.4W/m2 in 2100), we consider actions to control the “behavioral” determinants of transportation in the course of the low-carbon transition, and assess their effects on the Chinese economy. More specifically, we consider (i) urban reorganization lowering the constrained mobility (i.e. mobility for commuting and shopping), (ii) reallocation of investments in favor of public modes at constant total amount for transportation infrastructure and (iii) adjustments of the logistics organization to decrease the transport intensity of production/distribution processes.

Results: This analysis demonstrates the risk of high losses if using carbon price as the sole instrument of mitigation. Transport proves to be the sector for which carbon emissions are the more difficult to reduce. It thus represents a dominant share of remaining emissions in the long-term when ambitious mitigation objectives are set. Because of its weak reactivity to price increases, very high levels of carbon prices are needed in the second half of the century to reach low mitigation targets. We find indeed that they can reach 1400$/tCO2 by the end of the century.  But we find that controlling mobility growth allows limiting these effects by offering mitigation potentials independent of carbon prices. The considered measures allow significant reductions of carbon price levels (on average 25% lower over 2050-2100) and hence help limiting the macroeconomic costs of the mitigation policies (e.g. long-term mitigation costs are reduced by 5 points in 2050 and by 10 points in 2100).

Conclusion: This study highlights the role of transport in the mitigation process. Given a climate target, the implementation of measures fostering a modal shift towards low-carbon modes and a decoupling of mobility needs from economic activity prove to modify the sectoral distribution of mitigation efforts and to significantly reduce the mitigation macro-economic costs relatively to a “carbon price only” policy.

Pathways to be Opened towards Low Carbon Society – Findings on Multi-model Comparison in ICA-RUS Project

S. Mori (Tokyo University of Science, Noda, Chiba, Japan), T. Washida (Sophia University, Tokyo, Japan), A. Kurosawa (Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo, Japan), T. Masui (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan)

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Pathways to be Opened towards Low Carbon Society – Findings on Multi-model Comparison in ICA-RUS Project

S. Mori (1) ; T. Washida (2) ; A. Kurosawa (3) ; T. Masui (4)
(1) Tokyo University of Science, Department of Industrial Administration, Noda, Chiba, Japan; (2) Sophia University, Graduate school of global environmental studies, Tokyo, Japan; (3) Institute of Applied Energy, Tokyo, Japan; (4) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

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Although the world agrees with the need for the greenhouse gas control in the long views, there are still serious barriers to be resolved towards the near term policy decisions. The scientific and the societal uncertainties in the climate change policies must be the large part of this barrier. Besides the unknown factors in the natural science field, various heterogeneous uncertainties in the macro and micro economic outcomes of mitigation policies, the technology strategies, possibility of adaptation options, and the risk and benefits of the geo-engineering will cause complicated debate. Distribution between current and future generation as well as among regions will also be the problem. The most preferable and acceptable decision making towards the agreement should be established from the risk management perspectives. Quantitative and comprehensive analysis is indispensable as a basis of discussion.

 

The Ministry of the Environment, Japan established an interdisciplinary research project, Integrated Climate Assessment – Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS) conducted by Dr.Seita Emori, National Institute for Environmental Studies. In order to deal with the various uncertainties, four different type integrated assessment models, i.e. MARIA-14(Mori), EMEDA(Washida), GRAPE(Kurosawa) and AIM(Masui), participate in this project to provide different views and the common information with respect to societal impacts of global warming strategies. For instance, the iterative optimization CGE model EMEDA has a capability to provide gaming simulations among states. MARIA and GRAPE provide detailed technology strategies as well as the land use changes through the inter-temporal optimization. AIM which consists of multiple model modules provides most comprehensive information. In the ICA-RUS project, these models generate various solutions under same SSP and RCP based scenarios, providing common information on economic loss and regional GHG emission pathways. Three models of the above give energy technology option and land use changes while EMEDA provides sectoral impacts. We also employ three “Alternatives left to humanity” represented by mitigation targets, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 degrees C global mean temperature increase with assuming the climate sensitivity of 3.0 degree C.

 

The current tentative conclusions are summarized as follows: first, in the stringent climate target, the regional economic losses among models tend to diverge. This variety seems to depend on the assumption on the malleability of the final energy demand, especially of the transportation sector. Second, CCS as well as BECCS will be essential to achieve the stringent climate target. Third, industry structure changes in Asia and Africa will show different patterns depending on the climate policies. Fourth, the models show small changes in the crop production and land-use patterns among various climate scenarios suggesting that the implementation of BECCS and the biomass energy expansion may not seriously conflict with the food supply under the reference optimistic yield assumptions.

Finally, some additional simulations on multi-stage decision making to deal with adaptive energy technology strategies will also be shown.

Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction: the 2°C target and less stringent goals

O. Dessens (Enegy Institute, London, United Kingdom), G. Anandarajah, (Energy Institute, London, United Kingdom)

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Global scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions reduction: the 2°C target and less stringent goals

O. Dessens (1) ; G. Anandarajah, (2)
(1) Enegy Institute, University college london, London, United Kingdom; (2) Energy Institute, University college london, London, United Kingdom

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In this paper we present a study performed with the latest version of the TIAM-UCL model on the possibility to achieve different targets on the global temperature change due to greenhouse gas emission reduction. The study specifically analyses what will take us to meet the 2°C target in term of peaking years and subsequent reduction rates needed. We also analyse two less constrained targets at 2.5°C and 3°C.

The first part of the study focus on the relationship between the peaking year for emissions (before mitigation policy) and the minimum percentage change in the emissions reduction afterward allowing the target to be achieved. Increasing temperature target (2.5 and 3°C) or the maximum rate of emissions reduction reduces the need of early mitigation policies (before 2025). In the case of the 2°C target, allowing overshooting of the target before stabilisation has the same effect. Given the continuing delay in implementing a global agreement on greenhouse gases emission reduction, we initially examined the window of opportunity to continue increasing emissions whilst still limiting the average surface temperature rise. We found that while it may still be possible to limit the average global temperature rise to the nominal 2°C target agreed on by policy makers, the opportunity window for realising this is closing rapidly.

We study in a second part more specifically the pathways toward the stringent 2°C target. The focus is now on where the mitigation occurs between developed, emerging and developing economies and what technologies and resources are needed.  Per capita emissions were found to fall in all regions globally: in high-income regions these drop to less than a quarter of their 2010 level by 2050, while in middle and low-income regions they fall by 50%.  On the technology side, we present the deployment rates of the low-carbon technologies needed to achieve the target. The first sector to decarbonise will be the electricity generation; the overall level and rate of installation of new capacity that is required globally is found to be entirely unprecedented at such temporal and geographical scales.

In conclusion, the opportunity to prevent a temperature rise less than 2oC remains possible and is indeed entirely necessary. However perhaps this opportunity becomes increasingly unlikely due to the required scale of the investments required.

A dashboard and linked, top-down economic and bottom-up energy system models that demonstrate development indicators, technology deployment, investment and economic structure trajectories consistent with emissions pathways to achieve the 2oC goal

H. Trollip (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), T. Caetano (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), B. Merven (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), A. Hughes (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), H. Winkler (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

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A dashboard and linked, top-down economic and bottom-up energy system models that demonstrate development indicators, technology deployment, investment and economic structure trajectories consistent with emissions pathways to achieve the 2oC goal

H. Trollip (1) ; T. Caetano (1) ; B. Merven (1) ; A. Hughes (1) ; H. Winkler (1)
(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

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Global top-down models indicate that it is possible to achieve global emissions consistent with limiting climate-change warming over the 2015-2050 timeframe to 2 oC. This will require a fundamental techno-economic transformation towards  low-carbon societies. However, across nations, historical, social, economical, political, and environmental conditions vary widely and thus credible transition pathways at national level require analysis using national data and proper consideration of national conditions.

 

Similarly, national statistical, analytical and modeling resources and capabilities used to conduct this analysis vary widely. The global effort requires best possible analyses of national potentials for contribution to global mitigation efforts. A South African team is working with the Deep Decarbonisation Pathways Project (DDPP), conducting such a national  analysis.  Teams participating in the DDPP are providing similar analyses for countries representing more than 75% of global emissions. The timing of the initiative, and coordination of generation of results from the analyses are designed to support global processes such as the UN Climate Leaders Summit in September 2014 and the 21st COP in Paris.

 

Over the past two decades the Energy Research Centre (ERC) at the University of Cape Town has been building local capability to model the South African energy and economic systems. This includes aspects related to emissions trajectories  consistent with contribution to achieving 2 oC. Building on its rich tradition of research into energy, economy, environment and development, the ERC has been developing a linked economic energy system and emissions model. The ERC team has particular interest in inclusion of development indicators in the analysis, as well as those for climate change. The inclusion of these indicators in the international dashboard is used to provide a common set of data for national and regional analysis and also provides a full set of economic, energy system and emissions data for the pathways.

 

In addition to providing results coordinated to support global processes the novel combination of a dashboard and soft-linked, top-down economic and bottom-up energy system models also provides impetus and direction necessary to identify key issues to focus efforts for further model refinements and development for ongoing support of these processes, and national level processes.

 

To support the DDPP the team has worked to provided results consistent with the global initiative while also focusing on model developments relevant to specific South African issues such as high unemployment, existing socio-economic structures, labour force skills profiles and skills development scenarios, and options for future economic structures and other associated socio-economic research and data for informing the development indicators. This novel approach of combining data on multiple issues from multiple sources and tailoring models to address specific challenges is used to provide relevant, credible, evidence-based storylines showing what is required for South Africa to achieve acceptable socio-economic development and greenhouse gas emissions pathways from 2015-2050.

Energy transitions in France: lessons from a forward-looking study

R. Bibas (International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris, France), J.-C. Hourcade (International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris, France)

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Energy transitions in France: lessons from a forward-looking study

R. Bibas (1) ; JC. Hourcade (1)
(1) International Research Center on Environment and Development (CIRED), Paris, France

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  The general equilibrium model Imaclim France-R is used to examine various energy transition strategies leading to a path 'Factor 4'.The macroeconomic balance a set of assumptions about the technical conditions of supply and demand for energy varies as it is or not housed in a package that does not come from one area of ​​energy policy: fiscal policies to prevent the spread of the additional costs of energy in the production system, social and wage bargaining to manage the recycling of the product of a carbon tax, reform of financing structures, industrial policies and training for new jobs, infrastructure policies and behavioral change.We then show how a funding policy lowering the coefficient of investment risk 'low carbon' would, by enhancing the credibility of public policies, reduce fears that explain the reluctance of market participants and trigger a shift in investment towards faster simple equipment into energy.The macroeconomic balance changes according to the terms of the transition, but is positive in the medium and long term in terms of growth and employment, this because of the synergy between three mechanisms: decrease of energy imports, energy savings releasing purchasing power of households in non-energy goods and services, lower labor costs allowed by a carbon tax.Economic Support of the Transition is critical to move from a slightly negative balance in the short term to a positive balance sheet, in order to give the 'grist' needed to reduce these tensions.The challenge is an effect credibility 'from the consistent conduct of pricing policies and funding guiding expectations of actors in a negative context.As for the nuclear issue, we see a big difference between a nuclear constrained by increased demands 'precautionary' and a voluntary exit 2050 with a ban on building new plants.This last assumption is to respect the F4, an important and early development of CCS and leads to growth retardation of 4.5 years over 40 years excluding conversion costs, and, conversely, profound changes behavior and economic structures.Scenarios precautionary nuclear 'limit its place around 40% of the energy mix in 2050 and allow a decision to back exit or new deployment that can be taken later "better informed".The challenge now is to get into position to take it with a strong national consensus not only the ultimate technology choice, whatever it is, but also economic and social policies consistent with this choice.

 

Technology and innovation to low-carbon pathways in Brazil

G. Jannuzzi, (University of Campinas - UNICAMP , Campinas - SP, Brazil), A. Furtado, (University of Campinas - UNICAMP , Campinas - SP, Brazil), M. Poppe, (Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Brasilia - DF, Brazil), B. Bressan (Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Brasília-DF, Brazil)

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Technology and innovation to low-carbon pathways in Brazil

G. Jannuzzi, (1) ; A. Furtado, (1) ; M. Poppe, (2) ; B. Bressan (3)
(1) University of Campinas - UNICAMP , Mechanical engineering faculty, Campinas - SP, Brazil; (2) Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Sustainable development, Brasilia - DF, Brazil; (3) Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation (CGEE), Sustainable Development, Brasília-DF, Brazil

Abstract content

The UNFCCC intends to approve more stringent targets to reduce carbon emissions globally. One of the instruments that has been created by the Climate Convention is the Technology Mechanism. This mechanism comprises a Technology Executive Committee (TEC) and a Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN).

Developing countries are asked to prepare reports detailing their technological needs to develop mitigation and adaptation climate plans. These reports are known as Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) and are prepared according to suggested guidelines and offer the basis for technological procurement and transfer efforts of select stablished solutions very often already dominated and commercialized by industrialized countries.

CGEE (a non-profit organization with the mission of rendering Science, Technology and Innovation as Brazil’s best allies for economic growth, competitiveness and well-being) is coordinating, as a subsidy for the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, a group of experts with wide experience on technology development and transfer in order to propose a suitable methodology for the Brazilian reports, oriented to formulate a Technology Capacities and Needs Assessment (TCNA). Therefore, technology needs are associated to national capacities and competencies supporting the designing of a Technology Action Plan (TAP) to fight climate change. Moreover, preparing a TCNA indicates the possibility for developing countries to not only attract know-how and new technologies, but also to be able to offer these resources to other countries.

The contribution aims to improve the assessment and action plans taking into account the opportunity for developing countries to enhance and promote its science and technology base and to create new solutions to more meaningful low-carbon pathways in their own social context. One key step in the proposed methodology is a detailed inventory of local capacities and competences not only within the science and technological communities but also their industrial base. So, it will be possible to enhance the national innovation chain and place developing countries as more relevant international players in the arena of scientific and technological activities, being able to generate more patents and solutions that can be applied in other similar developing countries as well. Additionally the adaption capacity of more vulnerable countries and regions could be upgraded.

Integrating domestic political constraints in a global agreement on pollution reduction

A. Staes (Paris school of economics, Paris, France)

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Integrating domestic political constraints in a global agreement on pollution reduction

A. Staes (1)
(1) Paris school of economics, Paris, France

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One of the famous but unfortunately unsuccessful approaches to deal with global warming has been to create the missing carbon market emission. While it appeared at first to be a hope, it failed by not taking into account asymmetric information and transaction costs associated. Mechanism designs coupled with incentives literature constitute a new promising approach. To design optimal contracts, two major constraints appear: countries need to voluntarily participate and they need to provide optimal effort.  Taking into account asymmetric information, the first best could not be implemented. Martimort and Sand-Zantman (2012) demonstrate there is a trade-off between the provision of incentives for participating countries and the provision of incentives to participate. To deal with this double free-riding problem, they design menu contracts such that all countries will participate to a fund but only the more efficient would provide efforts to reduce their emission. By taking into account the diversity of countries, global contracts reducing pollution below the non-cooperating level (also called ‘business as usual level’) could be proposed.   

Martimort and Sand-Zantman model (2014) does not take into account domestic political constraints in the design of the global agreement. Starting from their model, my contribution attempts to open the “black box” of government involved in negotiations. National governments face an asymmetric information issue: they are not perfectly informed about the firms’ technologies (especially technologies to reduce emissions). Indeed, firms have an informational rent, which is source of distortions. Government could try to collect information on firms -thought bureaucrats for instance-. However, lobbies could try to capture bureaucrat. Avoiding capture for the governments could be costly.  To tackle with these domestic constraints various mechanisms such as market or contracts should be considered at a domestic level.

Once taking into account domestic internal constraints, the setting up of general agreement mechanism could be modified. This analysis implies introducing double-edged incentives constraints to tackle asymmetric information issues both across and inside countries.

Research over contracts offers a way to focus on countries’ different interests, maybe the more important issue that avoid any common agreement to be reached if denied. The integration of countries’ internal political constraints makes more plausible the design of a global agreement. For that reason, this approach is relevant for the theme of day 4 “Collective action and transformative solution”.  

 

Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States by 2050

J. H. Williams, (Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), San Francisco, United States of America), M. S. Torn (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), B. Haley, (Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), San Francisco, United States of America)

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Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States by 2050

JH. Williams, (1) ; MS. Torn (2) ; B. Haley, (1)
(1) Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), San Francisco, United States of America; (2) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States of America

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Limiting the anthropogenic increase in global mean surface temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius will require a reduction in global net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the order of 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. As a result, there is a growing need to understand what would be required to achieve deep decarbonization in different economies. We examined the technical and economic feasibility of such a transition in the United States, evaluating the infrastructure and technology changes required to reduce U.S. GHG emissions in the year 2050 by 80% below 1990 levels.  Using the PATHWAYS and GCAM models, we find that multiple alternative technology paths exist to achieve this level of decarbonization in the U.S., assuming existing commercial or near-commercial technologies, natural replacement of infrastructure stocks, and the same level of energy services and economic growth as a reference case based on the U.S. DOE Annual Energy Outlook. Reductions are achieved through high levels of energy efficiency (1.8 GJ/$2012), deep decarbonization of electricity generation (<20 gCO2/kWh), electrification of most end uses (>50% of final energy), and switching remaining end uses to lower carbon fuels.  A highly granular annual infrastructure stock-rollover model shows the physical adoption rates and investment required for key technologies in power, transportation, buildings, and industry.  A regional hourly dispatch model of the electricity system for high renewable, high nuclear, high CCS, and mixed scenarios shows that flexible production of fuels from electricity can simultaneously provide both supply-demand balancing for reliability in systems with high levels of inflexible generation (e.g., >75% renewable) and low carbon fuels for applications that are difficult to electrify.  Incremental energy system cost is equivalent to <1% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the base case, with an interquartile range of -0.2% to +1.8% across a variety of technology scenarios and cost sensitivities, not including non-energy benefits from avoided climate change and air pollution.  The future terrestrial carbon sink and the level of biomass feedstock that can be considered sustainable and low-carbon are key uncertainties for future energy sector emission reduction costs.

Low carbon pathways prioritising human needs and development

J. Steinberger (University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom), W. Lamb (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Low carbon pathways prioritising human needs and development

J. Steinberger (1) ; W. Lamb (2)
(1) University of Leeds, School of Earth & Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom; (2) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Human societies have always required environmental resources, in the form of energy and materials, to survive and flourish. However, the exact level of resource requirements may be difficult to estimate, since it can depend on many factors. These factors include: local biophysical conditions, such as climate or available crops for food; technological options and efficiencies for delivering key services; but also socio-economic parameters, including consumption levels and inequality in distribution. This talk will present recent advances in the international study of energy requirements for human needs. These results demonstrate that high levels of human wellbeing are attainable at moderate as well as very high energy use, and that the average level of energy use required to achieve high human wellbeing is declining over time. Moreover, it can be shown that energy itself does not play a dominant role in explaining the considerable advances in human wellbeing over the past half century. Research analysing the resource requirements to fulfil universal basic human needs within a low carbon future will be presented. This research must take into account political, social and economic factors, since fulfilling human needs at low levels of resource use most likely requires a fundamental restructuring of social and economic systems alongside technological advances.

Back to the future: Assessing the risks of 2°C pathways

C. Von Stechow (MCC Berlin, Berlin, Germany), J. Minx, (MCC Berlin, Berlin, Germany), K. Riahi (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, Austria), D. Mccollum (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria), J. Jewell (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), G. Baiocchi (University of Maryland, College Park, United States of America)

Abstract details
Back to the future: Assessing the risks of 2°C pathways

C. Von Stechow (1) ; J. Minx, (1) ; K. Riahi (2) ; D. Mccollum (3) ; J. Jewell (4) ; G. Baiocchi (5)
(1) MCC Berlin, Berlin, Germany; (2) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Energy Program, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, Austria; (3) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Energy Program, Laxenburg, Austria; (4) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (5) University of Maryland, College Park, United States of America

Abstract content

According to the most recent contribution of the IPCC, decision makers have some flexibility in terms of climate change mitigation timing and technology choices to achieve ambitious climate targets, such as the 2°C target. At the same time, they would like to pursue multiple other objectives beyond climate change mitigation that are affected by mitigation timing and technology choices. Depending on locally specific priority settings and risk perceptions, this could imply delaying mitigation efforts and/or ruling out specific technologies compared to the globally most cost-effective mitigation pathways and technology portfolios analyzed by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). Understand the implications of deviating from these cost-effective mitigation pathways for other risks related to mitigation choices could allow national decision makers to trade off various risks and priorities in a more informed way when choosing their mitigation policies.

On a global level, alternative mitigation pathways based on IAMs are primarily characterized by (i) the probability of exceeding a pre-determined temperature threshold and (ii) the aggregate economic costs of reaching that temperature threshold. Some studies have also analyzed (i) the potential co-benefits for non-climate objectives (such as energy security and air quality) and (ii) the risks for non-climate objectives (such as land availability and food security). While the first two characteristics have been in the focus of recent model intercomparison projects and scientific assessments (e.g. WGIII AR5/UNEP), and the co-benefits of mitigation pathways have gained in prominence (see, e.g., the Global Energy Assessment), the risks of alternative global mitigation pathways have attracted less attention – possibly except food security – both in the literature and in the public mainly for two reasons: (i)     Mitigation risks are challenging to quantify, let alone monetize, on a global level – the discussion thus usually focuses on technology-specific risks, such as those associated with nuclear power, CCS or bioenergy. (ii) The mitigation risks tend to be smaller, less persistent, less prevalent, less irreversible and hence better manageable compared to the risks of unabated climate change (see IPCC AR5 SYR).

This paper aims at improving our understanding of mitigation risks for choosing amongst alternative ambitious mitigation pathways by drawing on IAM results. To this end, the paper will first review literature that has used various IAM outputs to discuss those challenges to mitigation pathways that have a bearing on risks for non-climate objectives and will hence serve here as risk indicators for attaining/failing these objectives. In contrast to existing studies that focus on specific challenges or IAMs, this paper will proceed to analyze risk profiles of alternative mitigation pathways across a more comprehensive set of risk indicators most directly linked to other non-climate objectives, drawing on multi-model outputs from recent IAM intercomparison projects.

The ambition of the paper is to shed light on the risk tradeoffs involved in pursuing policies not consistent with the most cost-effective mitigation pathways to limit global warming to below 2°C. For instance, recent advances in the IAM literature stress that delaying mitigation efforts beyond 2020/2030 will lead to a lock-in of high-carbon and high energy demand development pathways and hence mitigation costs. But these scenario results have not yet been used comprehensively to evaluate the risks of delayed mitigation efforts for a large set of other non-climate objectives, particularly not in combination with additional technological constraints and/or assumptions for ambitious energy intensity improvements. This paper wants to address this research gap and show in what way the flexibility of future decision makers in choosing climate policy consistent with the 2°C target will be reduced by climate policy decisions today.

Based on a preliminary evaluation of the scenario results, the paper puts forward that  delaying mitigation as well as ruling out technologies from the portfolio of mitigation options could lead to problematic risk trade-offs for future decision makers that have to balance increasingly high risks of unabated climate change and increased mitigation risks for those technologies still on the table. These results could serve as a basis for developing new approaches to climate policies more adapted to locally specific priority settings and risk perceptions without endangering globally agreed climate targets.

Development of pathways to achieve the SE4ALL 2030 objectives

J. Gregg (Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark), T. Kober (Energy reserach Centre on the Netherlands, Amsterdam, Netherlands), O. Balyk (Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark), C. H. C. Pérez (Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark), O. Solér (Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark), S. La Greca (Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark), M. A. D. Larson (Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark), T. K. Anderson (Technical University of Denmark, Roskilde, Denmark)

Abstract details
Development of pathways to achieve the SE4ALL 2030 objectives

J. Gregg (1) ; T. Kober (2) ; O. Balyk (1) ; CHC. Pérez (1) ; O. Solér (1) ; S. La Greca (1) ; MAD. Larson (1) ; TK. Anderson (1)
(1) Technical University of Denmark, Management Engineering, Roskilde, Denmark; (2) Energy reserach Centre on the Netherlands, Policy Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands

Abstract content

The objectives of the United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Initiative (SE4ALL) are to achieve, by 2030: 1) universal access to modern energy services; 2) a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (in terms of the rate of energy intensity reduction); and 3) a doubling of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix (in terms of renewable energy share in the global energy mix). The study explores the techno-economical pathways of sectoral and regional developments to 2030, taking into account realization of the potential for energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy deployment.

Beyond the reference scenario (which includes no additional policy measures or technology development beyond the current status quo assumptions), we create three alternative scenarios. The first alternative scenario focuses on meeting the SE4ALL 2030 energy efficiency target through a combination of more ambitious technological improvements and policy incentives within end use energy consumption in the buildings, industry and transportation sectors. To create this scenario, we simulate substantial improvements in conventional technologies’ efficiencies, phasing out of energy intensive technologies at an accelerated pace (replaced with more advanced counterparts), and the emergence /proliferation of innovative new technologies not yet widely available in the market.

The second alternative scenario focuses on achieving the SE4ALL 2030 renewable energy targets. This scenario sets both global and region-specific targets to closely follow those outlined by the International Renewable Energy Agency Global Renewable Roadmap (IRENA REMap2030).

The third alternative scenario combines the first two.

The alternative scenarios also incorporate the effect of various barriers to energy efficiency development, to simulate various known social, political, and economic effects that curtail adoption of new technologies. This allows for a more effectual representation of meeting the SE4ALL targets.

The technology-rich TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) is employed to analyze the various scenarios. From here, we develop technology and policy pathways for different regions for meeting the SE4ALL energy efficiency and renewable energy goals. The pathways are evaluated in terms of cost effectiveness and by assessing the degree to which modern technology is dispersed across the various regional technology profiles (the first objective of SE4ALL). The optimal pathways are converted into policy recommendations and cost estimates for best achieving the SE4ALL objectives. 

Results-based finance: where do we stand and what next?

L. Schneider (Associate to SEI / CDM Executive Board, Berlin, Germany)

Abstract details
Results-based finance: where do we stand and what next?

L. Schneider (1)
(1) Associate to SEI / CDM Executive Board, Berlin, Germany

Abstract content

Results-based funding (RBF) is an innovative financing tool which has mainly been implemented in the health and education sector so far. It is now gaining traction for the purpose of mitigating climate change. The Worldbank launched two initiatives which purchase and cancel certification emission reductions (CERs) issued under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM): the Methan Abatement Facility explores auctioning of CERs from methane projects and the Carbon Initiative for Development supports low-carbon investments in least developed countries. Another example is the agreement by Norway and Brazil on a performance-based payments system for forest conversation in the Amazone. With significant amounts of finance becoming available under the Green Climate Fund, results-based funding could become a key component in the future architecture for climate finance.

This contribution will first summarize the concepts implemented and envisaged and the lessons learned so far. It will provide an overview on existing initiatives, their priorities, objectives and barriers. Based on this overview, key design questions for results-based financing will be identified and discussed, using specific examples. The contribution aims to identify and assess concrete options how programmes using carbon markets for results based climate finance could be designed to effectively achieve additional and long-term emission reductions. The options could be considered by bilateral and multilateral financial institutions when implementing such programmes.

Public Financial Institutions and the Low-Carbon Transition: Five Case studies on Low-Carbon Infrastructure and Project Investment

I. Cochran (CDC Climat, Paris, France), V. Marchal (OECD, Paris, France), R. Hubert (CDC Climat, Paris, France), R. Youngman (OECD, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Public Financial Institutions and the Low-Carbon Transition: Five Case studies on Low-Carbon Infrastructure and Project Investment

I. Cochran (1) ; V. Marchal (2) ; R. Hubert (1) ; R. Youngman (2)
(1) CDC Climat, Paris, France; (2) OECD, Climate, biodiversity and water division, Paris, France

Abstract content

This study, jointly undertaken by the OECD and CDC Climat Research, analyses the role of Public Financial Institutions (PFIs) in fostering the low-carbon energy transition through domestic climate finance activities. The study maps the key tools and instruments currently used by five institutions to mobilise private sector investment in low-carbon infrastructure projects in OECD countries in three sectors: sustainable transport, energy-efficiency and renewable energy. Between 2010-2012, these five institutions – Group Caisse des Dépôts in France; KfW Bankengruppe in Germany; the UK Green Investment Bank; the European Investment Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – have provided over 100 billion euros of equity investment and financing for energy efficiency, renewable energy and sustainable transport projects. The results of the study indicate that these institutions play a key role in leveraging private sector participation in low-carbon, climate-resilient investment through the use of traditional and innovative approaches to link low-carbon projects with finance through enhancing access to capital; facilitating risk reduction and sharing; improving the capacity of market actors; and shaping broader market practices and conditions.

Tracking low-carbon investment in France in 2011: a landscape of sources, flows and channels

R. Morel (CDC Climat, PARIS, France), I. Cochran (CDC Climat, Paris, France), R. Hubert (CDC Climat, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Tracking low-carbon investment in France in 2011: a landscape of sources, flows and channels

R. Morel (1) ; I. Cochran (1) ; R. Hubert (1)
(1) CDC Climat, PARIS, France

Abstract content

This report presents the first comprehensive view of climate finance flows in France to reduce GHG emissions. Funding for the energy transition is a central issue for which the available data are often incomplete. This report aims to further the current debate by providing economy-wide estimates. This study identified and analyzed the investment spending in France in 2011 that contributed directly or indirectly to the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions (GHG); this corresponds to investment in low-carbon infrastructure and fixed assets (renewable energy, building high environmental quality, public transport, etc.). This information has been used to identify the distribution of flows across sectors, the share of different instruments, their use and the role of different actors.

This analysis has identified EUR 22.2 billion of investment in France in 2011in physical or tangible assets that reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Across all sectors, renewable energy accounted for EUR 9.0 billion of investment, including investment subsidies of 1.0 billion EUR. Energy efficiency was the second largest area of climate investment, totaling EUR 8.3 billion. The share of grants and concessional loans – with thus a cost for the public sector – totaled EUR 2.3 billion. These investments are concentrated in the construction sector (buildings) (EUR 6.7 billion).Private actors financed 75% of renewable energy and energy efficiency investments. In the transport sector, the picture is less clear as project were initiated principally by public bodies, and with financing provided (through debt and other means) in part by private actors. The EUR 22.2 billion annual investment estimated by this report – and excluding investments in the nuclear energy - is below the annual flows identified as necessary to achieve long-term objectives. The financing challenge should thus not be underestimated. The Panorama France 2011 suggests that part of the funding needed for the energy transition is already being provided, however efforts are still needed to reach long-term climate and objectives.

Mind Games: Our (Un)conscious Struggle with Climate Change

H. Berry (The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia)

Abstract details
Mind Games: Our (Un)conscious Struggle with Climate Change

H. Berry (1)
(1) The Australian National University, Climate Change Institute, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Abstract content

Background/purpose: Some media and academics have proposed that informing the public about the likely (harmful) impacts of climate change will increase psychiatric morbidity, querying whether such community conversations should therefore occur. This study explores whether general population ‘worry’ about climate change is linked to mental health and wellbeing in Australia.

                     

Methods: Structural equations modelling, cluster analysis and geo-spatial analysis of wave 2 data from the omnibus-style Australian Wellbeing Survey (launched 2013) which includes detailed modules on mental health and wellbeing (SF-36, K10, ‘happy feelings’, life satisfaction, self-rated health), personality (screen for introversion, conscientiousness, creativitiy), place (e.g., geocoded database, data across the whole continent: metropolitan, rural and remote locations; different climate zones; transport; distance to services; land degradation) and socially-based determinants (e.g., employment, financial circumstances, poverty, marginalisation, household and family structure, relationship status, cultural background, education). Innovatively, the survey includes a 10-item ‘climate change knowledge quiz’, developed with the Australian Academy of Science, which quantifies un/certainty about climate change science. Participants in Wave 2 (2014) were N~12,000 Australian adults who completed an online or paper survey.

 

Results: The 2014 survey has just closed and analysis is pending. Initial results indicate that ‘worrying’ about climate change is not linked to any aspect of wellbeing, except trivially to distress (more distressed people were very slightly more likely than their peers to ‘worry’ about climate change), but is strongly linked to climate change knowledge and attitudes. In multivariate analysis, these, in turn, are linked, though only trivially, to selected predictor variables: being female, younger, creative and highly-educated. The survey will produce general population and sub-population indicators, notably including often-overlooked groups (e.g., those identifying as LGBTIQA; or living with disabilities; or experiencing marginalisation).

 

Discussion/conclusion: Mental health problems are the world’s leading cause of disability and affect resilience and adaptive capacity. Climate change may harm mental health by, first, damaging local economies (via increased droughts, floods etc, that destroy farms, homes, businesses, infrastructure), harming livelihoods; which, in turn, can undermine social wellbeing and community functioning, key mainstays of good mental health. Uniquely, in the case of mental health and climate change, the threat may also be the solution: local-level community action could help address climate change challenges and also generate mental health co-benefits because it can promote social capital which is powerfully protective of mental health. Engaging the public responsibly in debate about climate change is unlikely to cause psychiatric morbidity and is essential in framing effective local responses.

The Economics of Mitigating Climate Change: Factors Usually Neglected

R. Rosen (Tellus Institute, Boston, MA, United States of America)

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The Economics of Mitigating Climate Change: Factors Usually Neglected

R. Rosen (1)
(1) Tellus Institute, Boston, MA, United States of America

Abstract content

There are many problems with the traditional use of integrated assessment models for the purpose of quantifying the net economic impacts in the very long run of mitigating climate change.  First, the modeling teams almost completely ignore uncertainty both as it affects the models, the estimation of parameters, and the input assumptions.  Second, reasonably broad ranges of sensitivity analyses are never performed.  Third, the discount rates assumed are very high.  Fourth, the role of enhanced energy and resource efficiency is usually underestimated.  Fifth, the models do not typically allow for transformative scenarios whereby past trends can be radically altered.  Sixth, live style changes are typically ignored which could facilitate mitigation efforts and policies.  Seventh, new laws and regulations for mitigation are usually ignored.  Eighth, policies such a increasing the role of mass transportation are usually ignored, in part because most integrated assessment models can not model changes in transportation modes for either passengers or freight.  Ninth, the impact of reducing income inequality between and within nations on the potential for mitigating climate change is ignored.  Finally, the absolute amount of investment needed to mitigate climate change is usually dramatically underestimated, and issues related to how such large investments could be financed on a sustainable basis are often excluded from research papers on the long-run economics of mitigating climate change.

"Warming and Greening": An assessment of farmers' capability to curbing water disasters in Muooni Catchment, Kenya

C. Ngonzo Luwesi (Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
"Warming and Greening": An assessment of farmers' capability to curbing water disasters in Muooni Catchment, Kenya

C. Ngonzo Luwesi (1)
(1) Kenyatta University, Geography, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

In the 16th century B.C. Moses the prophet saw "a burning thornbush" that was not consumed. This account has thrilled many of us for centuries beyond any imagination. Thanks to recent scientific knowledge, which has unveiled similar adaptation to the global warming. Yes, climate change is a threat to life supporting ecosystems, and particularly to forests and freshwater resources. This study puts in motion Moses' account of the “burning thornbush” in an ecosystem similar to that of Mount Hored: the semi-arid and hilly Muooni Catchment of Kenya. The research used rigorous scientific methods and tools to assess vulnerability and capability to curb exposure to hydro-meteorological hazards, social risks and economic misfortunes facing farmers in the course of climate change. The study used innovative and integrated Vulnerability-Capability Assessment (VCA+) techniques for agricultural water adaptation to climate change.  Results from the study show without any contradiction that farmers living in Muooni Catchment are mostly vulnerable to drought than flood. This can only be attributed to the high risks of changing hydro-climatic conditions triggered by ill-planned land-use activities and subsequent environmental changes, which are likely linked to the global warming, to sea surface temperature rise, high ocean currents and atmospheric wind pressure occurring in the southern hemisphere, and which are commonly known as El Niño (flood) and La Niña (drought). These factors are well known to impact on the farmland productivity and the sedimentation of water channels. However, it comes out from the analysis that individual farmers’ capability to adapt to future disasters will largely depend, not on their endowed capacity (or resources) but on the integration and preparedness of their community to disasters. These factors combined with high investments in water infrastructure, operations and maintenance may lead to water and food security. Farmers hence need to incorporate these drivers, risks and impacts in their decision-making for their future investments and adaptation to environmental changes. This may enhance their capability to manage water resources, land and subsequent institutions thus decreasing their vulnerability to water shortages. Moreover, a green economy has been propounded to be a true paradigm shift from “Business-As-Usual” (BAU) to behaviour change and climate adaptation. This may contribute to preserving our forest and freshwater reserves under the threat of greenhouse gases emission and increasing surface temperatures. All stakeholders are invited to cooperate in environmental conservation through adjustment of their lifestyles and land use activities, owing to uncertain climatic vulnerabilities. Whether acting independently (“autonomous” adaptation programme) or collectively (“planned” adaptation programme), farmers are called to increase their adaptive capacity and ability as a community to respond to climate risks and impacts and take advantage of the benefits arising from a green water economy under "Warming and Greening".

Beyond business as usual: The role of disruptive corporate governance and finance innovation in driving rapid, game changing de-carbonisation

J. Wiseman (University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia)

Abstract details
Beyond business as usual: The role of disruptive corporate governance and finance innovation in driving rapid, game changing de-carbonisation

J. Wiseman (1)
(1) University of Melbourne, Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Melbourne, Australia

Abstract content

This paper will provide a critical overview of the potential for disruptive and transformative corporate governance and finance innovation to drive rapid emissions reductions.

 

As the urgency of a rapid transition to a just and equitable post carbon economy continues to accelerate, so too does the shift in power from governments and civil society to corporations.  There is however an increasingly sharp contradiction between the goals and strategies required to drive equitable and rapid de-carbonisation and the dominant corporate paradigm of short term profit maximization. At the same time a rapidly expanding range of innovative corporate governance and financial strategies are creating new opportunities for disruptive and potentially game changing investment in low carbon economy infrastructure, technologies and systems.

 

New corporate governance and business models such as Benefit (B) corporations and open source, peer to peer and not for profit social enterprises are building on earlier learning about CSR, TBL accounting, and consumer and producer co-operatives to drive new approaches to setting and achieving corporate emission reduction goals.   An increased emphasis on longer term social, environmental and economic costs and benefits is also being informed by growing recognition of the fiduciary duty implications of climatic and environmental risk factors such as stranded fossil fuel assets and extreme weather events. Innovative corporate financing initiatives with the potential to drive low carbon investment switching include ethical investment and superannuation products with explicit low carbon and ‘green’ filters; climate bonds and green bonds; sustainable stock exchanges and a variety of social media facilitated crowd funding experiments.  

 

This paper will argue that full realisation of the emissions reduction potential of these emerging corporate governance and finance opportunities will be strongly influenced by national and international level decisions in relation to corporate law and regulation, carbon tax and emissions trading regimes. The paper will conclude with some broader reflections on the importance of rethinking the relation between democratic governance and corporate power in order to drive transformational change in a world of rapidly accelerating climatic  and ecological risks.

A study on the Korean model for greenhouse gas mitigation of livestock industries

H. U. Kim (National Academy of Science, Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
A study on the Korean model for greenhouse gas mitigation of livestock industries

HU. Kim (1)
(1) National Academy of Science, Korea, Natural Science, Div. 5(Agriculture)., Seoul, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

GGIRC of Korea reported Korean agriculture emitted 22 million tons of CO2 eq., which is 0.6% of total emission, 688.7 million ton CO2 eq. in 2012. Korean livestock industries are characterized by the intensified production system and the heavy dependency on the grain imports. Recently Korean livestock industries have been suffering from many problems like feed price increase, animal pandemics, increasing meat imports, and harder control on the environmental problems including GHG emission. In 2010, average Korean consumed about 110 grams of animal meat daily (excluding dairy products, fish, and soybeans), and they love to eat grilled-beef ribs and bacon high in fat.  The population of the obese people and the death toll from the circulatory problems have been rising steadily in recent years, which raised the national medical expenses and the import budget of the meat and feed grains. They should tackle on many GHG-related problems of Korean livestock industries collectively, including the obesity, the residue utilization, the clean energy supply, the animal disease control, and the grain import, all of which are inter-related and caused by the human activities.

For GHG mitigation of livestock industries, they should start from the nutrition education programs, which could persuade the people to cut down the fatty meat intake to a recommended level to control the urgent obesity problems, and they have to renew the animal production system urgently to a renewable one, which they could manage the feed supply, and control the animal pandemics and the pollution problems. Korean meat grading system giving the top grade to the heavily marbled meat must be amended to a healthier meat grading system. The import of bacon meat must be taxed on the basis of fat content. The fattening practices of cattle before marketing and the high-grain feeding must be abandoned. Recently probiotic lactic acid bacteria have shown to decrease the intestinal and the rumen gas production as well as the noxious smell of the man and animal feces. More researches are needed for the ruminant yogurt which could decrease GHG emission and enhance the feed efficiencies, which will provide a natural tool to solve the GHG problems of animal industries. The organic residues from livestock operations, food industries, and residences must be collected and digested anaerobically for the production of clean biogas as well as organic fertilizer, which could help the GHG problems, the pollution problems, and the clean energy demands. This concepts for GHG mitigation is hoped to help the nation to decrease the GHG emission from livestock industries and to solve other related problems, like the grain import budget and the national medical expenses. When we consider our history of meat-eating, the dependency on grain import, the obesity problems, and many difficulties of Korean livestock industries, this model for GHG mitigation could be a probable one especially in Korea, which might serve the nation as well as the world then. The methane fermentation is ancient, prevalent, and natural, but I believe we could manage to control GHG problems from livestock operations for our common future.

Implementing a transformative public transport project in South Africa's urban environment – the case of Cape Town's MyCiTi BRT

M. Boulle (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa), R. P. Van (Hunter van Ryneveld (Pty) Ltd, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa)

Abstract details
Implementing a transformative public transport project in South Africa's urban environment – the case of Cape Town's MyCiTi BRT

M. Boulle (1) ; RP. Van (2)
(1) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa; (2) Hunter van Ryneveld (Pty) Ltd, Independent, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa

Abstract content

Policy implementation is a major challenge throughout the world. Implementation of mitigation projects in developing countries is particularly complex, as they have to compete with numerous other policy priorities that are perceived as more pressing than climate change mitigation.

 

The transformation of cities holds huge mitigation potential. In South Africa, cities currently reflect severe inequality in terms of access to opportunities, with urban form and differing levels of mobility amongst citizens, being two major contributing factors. Like other South African cities, Cape Town’s urban form was significantly influenced by apartheid policies, which sought to segregate the population, based on race and placed low-income communities, in particular, far from the urban core. This was combined with a strong private car orientation from the 1960s onwards underpinned by substantial investment in roads and highways, which led to low densities and long commuting distances. Thus mobility in South African cities is associated with high emissions per passenger kilometer travelled, and entrenches the levels of inequality across income groups in cities.

 

The bus rapid transit (BRT) concept was presented to the South African government at a time when traffic congestion was worsening, along with the rise in private vehicle ownership associated with a growing middle class, and was forecast to increase exponentially. There was a realisation that expanding the road network would not alleviate the congestion; instead a sufficiently attractive alternative was required to entice private vehicle users away from their cars. The existing buses and trains were unlikely to induce this shift, but BRT, it was thought, could be such an alternative. 

 

This case study investigates the implementation process of the MyCiTi BRT in Cape Town, and identifies major factors that were influential in bringing about implementation, despite significant obstacles the project had to overcome. Some of these factors include: the role of support from national government, the presence of leadership within government and with stakeholders (especially the minibus taxi industry), the role of the 2010 FIFA World Cup in driving progress at speed, a competent and dedicated project team, and the influence of the industry transition of the minibus taxi industry. Most influential was the unique combination of factors and timing that drove implementation.

 

It is intended that the findings from this case study will provide insights into how to bring about implementation of transformative actions in difficult circumstances, that achieve multiple objectives, amidst opposition and competing policy goals. 

Management, hazardous waste treatment and environmental ?impact.?

K. Allia (USTHB, Algiers, Algeria)

Abstract details
Management, hazardous waste treatment and environmental ?impact.?

K. Allia (1)
(1) USTHB, Chemical Engineering, Algiers, Algeria

Abstract content

Improvement of standard living led and will continue to generate a rather big environmental risk, given the significant amount of multiple wastes they produce and depending to the case may be landfilled or treated and recycled. According to their nature and production source, they can be medical, agricultural, municipal, industrial etc. and the protection of human health and ecosystems is much more difficult than years ago. Environmental issues are more diffuse rather than located, subtle than obvious, and involve multiple environmental media (air, water, ground, sediments and biota) rather than a single one.

According to their nature and production source, they can be medical, agricultural, municipal, industrial etc. and the protection of human health and ecosystems is much more difficult than years ago. Environmental issues are more diffuse rather than located, subtle than obvious, and involve multiple environmental media (air, water, ground, sediments and biota) rather than a single one.

Due to their composition and their properties, hazardous wastes such that expired drugs, chemicals, present a real threat to human health and the environment (consequently may have an impact on the climate even if treated), and require a set of appropriate treatments to reduce toxicity risk and contamination, particularly for gathering pathways, transportation, treatment, recycling and disposal. They are considered one of the major environmental and health concerns, and their management requires a capital interest. If untreated, they could reach the water cycle through a variety of routes. They can do after being placed in landfills, such as residues from industrial manufacturing or as unused pharmaceuticals and infiltrate groundwater. It is also possible that effluents from pharmaceutical industries contain occasionally or permanently pharmaceutical residues and can end up in surface water through wastewater treatment process. The primary interest is the risk that contaminated soils and sediments pose to human and ecological receptors, for which rigorous evaluation is essential to make informed decisions and develop effective solutions. Through potential risk they represent, their management requires capital interest. Expired pharmaceuticals and chemicals untreated, can reach the water cycle through a variety of routes and infiltrate groundwater and ending in surface water. Treatment may include production of raw and secondary materials or energy recovery and their management can lead to the valorisation of noblest fraction and treatment of polluting fractional. Recycling and regeneration lead to a recovery of materials such as metals, etc. or by incineration and finally stabilization or landfilling for residues having no more perspective.

As a practical management of hazardous waste, incineration has two attributes: permanently destroy toxic organic compounds contained in the hazardous waste by breaking their chemical bonds and transform their components by reducing or eliminating their toxicity; reduce the amount of hazardous waste by converting the solid and liquid into ashes. The products of incineration are more bottom ash, fly ash, containing toxic organic and inorganic compounds (Satnam Singh et al., 2007). The combustion gases are composed primarily of carbon dioxide and vapour water, and small amounts of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and low concentrations of organic and inorganic compounds. And like many combustion processes, incineration also produces by-products such as soot particles and other contaminants released in exhaust gases, and leave a residue (bottom ash) of incombustible and partially combusted waste that must be emptied from incinerator chambers and properly disposed. Expired or unused pharmaceuticals are now incinerated in facilities that could meet the highest environmental standards, including treatment of smokes and where releases relating thereto, are a priori insignificant (RRCSE, 2008). However to date, there are no estimates on all of these issues. We know that climate change is a key environmental issue with major concerns with respect to the rise in global temperature and concomitant direct and indirect implications. Recently, there has been a international momentum to stay within an agreed target of a 2°C increase above the preindustrial global mean temperature, by 2050 ( Erika von et al, 2013). Increasing greenhouse gases from anthropogenic activities, carbon dioxide in particular, has been well-established as the major force behind climate change and the warming of the Earth.

The Sustainable Energy Utility as a transformative solution to 'utility 2.0'

J. Byrne, (University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, United States of America), J. Taminiau (University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, United States of America)

Abstract details
The Sustainable Energy Utility as a transformative solution to 'utility 2.0'

J. Byrne, (1) ; J. Taminiau (1)
(1) University of Delaware, Center for energy and environmental policy, Newark, Delaware, United States of America

Abstract content

Economic development decision-making criteria throughout the 20th century relied heavily on economic optimality as a chief guiding principle in the design of energy, technology, markets, and policy. Proposals to redefine energy progress on sustainability principles gives rise to an emerging 21st century sustainability paradigm revolving around commons-based economics and long-term ecological viability. An existing operational expression of the new paradigm – the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) [1],[2] – is analyzed as a practical means to arrive at the New Economics and New Policy which might guide the energy sector under a 21st century sustainability paradigm. The SEU is compared and tested against other candidates for ‘utility 2.0’, most notably the Energy Service Utility in order to establish the transformative potential of the SEU application.

[1] Byrne, J., Martinez, C., & Ruggero, C. (2009). Relocating energy in the social commons: ideas for a sustainable energy utility. Bulletin of Science, Technology, & Society 29(2), 81-94.

[2] Byrne, J., & Taminiau (forthcoming). A review of the Sustainable Energy Utility (SEU) and Energy Service Utility concepts and applications: realizing ecological and social sustainability with a community utility. WIREs Energy and Environment.

Our Common Future, Our Common Global. Approaches from an educational experience towards collective action

M. B. Wehbe (Economic Science, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina), M. Juarez (Humanities, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina)

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Our Common Future, Our Common Global. Approaches from an educational experience towards collective action

MB. Wehbe (1) ; M. Juarez (2)
(1) Economic Science, Economy, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; (2) Humanities, Psycopedagogy, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina

Abstract content

“…When we understand how much we depend on nature then we will start this huge cultural change we need to be more sustainable…”  Antonio Tironi Silva, Young Scientists Network Conference, Villa Vigoni, Italy, 2014 (Video available at www.icsu.org)

A common future under climate change will need deep behavioural changes. We need to learn more about threats and risks, to reduce vulnerabilities, to increase our capacities to adapt to global environmental changes, and to reduce our pressure on the environment. We need to sustainably live under uncertainty within a complex human-nature world.

We can think about climate change as a major threat to humans and nature, a threat to our common future, a tragedy of our global commons. Despite quite strong, short term global actions are required if we are to avoid this and other threats to and from global environmental changes, equally strong but long term individual and collective behavioural changes will be necessary.

This presentation is about an educational experience aimed at fostering behavioural changes at the individual level and towards collective action. We present results from a local experience through formal education at the National University of Rio Cuarto in Argentina. An ongoing Project (PRODEC*) which aims at introducing environmental issues within all discipline curricula at our University based on the premise that most of our students are those future professionals and educators that at different levels and within different spaces will have the opportunity and hard challenge to foster that huge cultural change we need to sustain life on Earth.

The Project started in 2013 with the integration of professors from different disciplines, within the social and natural sciences, interested in an interdisciplinary approach to global environmental changes and challenges through formal education. The Project has been associated to a request from the Humanities school at our University and nurtured from the demand of a Secondary school with a trajectory in “education for the environment”. To date, four workshops have taken place: one with undergraduate students from our University; one with students for primary education; and the other two, with students from first years of secondary school. In all cases, each workshop was structured in three phases: a) an oral presentation accompanied by allusive photographs, pictures and diagrams to the presented global environmental threats and challenges; b) the development of competitive and cooperative games; and, c) a space for creativity from group productions (posters made by students) related to what has been experienced, followed by a fifteen minutes presentation by group. Each workshop started with an impersonal individual written inquiry about their expectations for the workshop and ended with another individual appreciation on what has been experienced, in a written form.

Main results from these participative dynamic experiences may be summarized as follows: a) all students show themselves eager to learn more about what is going on at Planetary scale concerning the relationship human-environment; b) there is a widespread willingness to reconnect to nature –i.e. through different activities within and outside the University; and, c) there is a kind of widespread happiness when discovering the possibilities to solve problems through collective action.

To date, these experiences have allowed our working team to increase our expectations on introducing environmental issues within all discipline curricula at our University through this type of workshop activities, even we have not been able to assess the extent to which these activities may have transformed students behaviour yet.

* PRODEC Team: Rached S; Aguilar Mansilla F; Echenique H; Tello D; De Luca N

Obstetrics Risk of HIV infection among women attending antenatal clinic in General Hospital Suleja, Niger State, Nigeria

M. U. Okojie (FCT COLLEGE OF EDUCATION ZUBA, ABUJA, NIGERIA., ABUJA, FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Obstetrics Risk of HIV infection among women attending antenatal clinic in General Hospital Suleja, Niger State, Nigeria

MU. Okojie (1)
(1) FCT COLLEGE OF EDUCATION ZUBA, ABUJA, NIGERIA., REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH EDUCATION, ABUJA, FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Background: Obstetrics risk and practices can lead to the spread of HIV/AIDS. Identifications of such obstetrics risk of HIV infection is a useful step in the prevention of transmission of the virus. Objective: The research sort to determine obstetrics risk of HIV infection in pregnant women attending antenatal clinic in General Hospital Suleja, Niger State. Methods: The researcher conducted a cross-sectional descriptive study of pregnant women attending antenatal clinic in General Hospital Suleja, Niger State between August and December, 2014. Data were collected using structured questionnaire. HIV screening and confirmation was carried out on pregnant women after voluntary counseling. Results: 350 pregnant women were enrolled with a mean age (+or-SD) of 26.8+or-6.4 years. The highest number of HIV infected women was observed in those who had their first coitus between 16 and 20 years. The age at first coitus was significantly related to the HIV infection (P=0.41). Neither parity (P=0.13) nor past history of abortion (P=0.42) was associated with HIV infection. Non of the 41 women who had their last delivery at home had HIV infection compared with 9.8% of the 194 women who delivered in the hospital clinic (P==0.008). 40% of those who had their last delivery in primary health care centre had HIV infection while 22.2% of those who delivered under the care of traditional traditional birth attendant had HIV infection. Conclution: Obstetrics practices mayencourage transmission of HIV infection. This calls for re-examination of the obstetrics practices especially in our primary health care centres in order to prevent transmission of HIV infection.

 

Keywords: Obstetrics, risk, Suleja, traditional birth attendant.

Industrial sector inspection as a control effort on climate change impacts

M. Febianto (Bandung Institute of technology, Bandung, west java, Indonesia)

Abstract details
Industrial sector inspection as a control effort on climate change impacts

M. Febianto (1)
(1) Bandung Institute of technology, Environmental engineering, Bandung, west java, Indonesia

Abstract content

The green economy is defined as an economy that results in reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities and that aims for sustainable development without degrading the environment. it is closely with ecological but more politically applied focus (Lynn R. Kahle, Eda Gurel Atay Eds 2014). In Cimahi City (located in West Java – Republic of Indonesia), The local government has several facts: (1) approximately 350 industries, located in the southern region of the city, (mostly textiles), are the dominant sector of the city (15% of total area) and home for thousands of employees to earn living. (2) they have been discharged million cubic of wastewater in to a river, every day. (3) Based on the study of Cimahi river water quality, one of the result mentions that the river condition is very polluted. (3) the southern region of the city is densely populated areas (279.854 of 643.548 = 43% of total population of the city) and the lowest elevation areas. (4) rivers and drainage channels are accommodate all types of waste. All these facts lead to "silting of rivers and drainage channels. (5) In south region of the city, industrial zones coexist with densely populated settlements. So if the flood came, hazardous waste water will effect to the people of South Regioan of Cimahi. Regarding those facts, for the government of cimahi city, green economy is about bridging or unite these two different poles. How to keep the industrial activities because they are “Economic lifeblood of the city” ; but manage their wastewater is also important. The Environment Office Of Cimahi City (KLH) as leading sector have main duty to manage environment issues, try to solve it through a routine program which has been implementing since 2010 until now, called “inspection for industrial sector”. One of the output of the program is giving the industry a sanctions which are different one industry to another. Some of them be sanctioned by an obligation to fix their wastewater treatment plant (WWTP). In early 2011, The government of cimahi has issued a sanction for 60 industry. The question is how effective this sanctions improving the environment quality or is there any relation between this program with a better river water quality? Within this papers, writer try to make a simple analysis. Is there any progress? Between industrial waste water quality before and after the sanctions has imposed. Writer believe it does. For example in “X” factory, BOD (biological oxygen demand) concentration in 2013 is 250 mg/l, dropped to 178 mg/l and dropped to 160 mg/l. For another example in “Y” factory BOD concentration in 2013 is 90 mg/l then dropped to 86 mg/l and finally in 2015 dropped to 52 mg/l. Another fact mention there has been an increasing of wastewater treatment plant performance in sanctioned industry. There has been a very noticable change. Its mean that the effort has a significant result to decrease BOD number or in improving a performance of WWTP in industry. The report of inspection program also mentions that all of the sanctioned industry comply with the sanctions and began to make improvements. It means that the program is a collective action between industry and government. In the early year of 2015 the old target and the new target are on their way to be audited by KLH. Writer do believe if this program followed continuously, the environment quality will be better. The conclusion is the green economy for cimahi more than it is defined but how to keep the water in this city, just like the city’s name means in the local language, “Cimahi means : a lots of water. And In the end protect and adapt people from climate change impact which is: hazardous flood.

Integrated Assessment Modelling to Enhance Climate Policy Design in Thailand

B. Limmeechokchai (THAMMASAT University, Pathumthani, Thailand)

Abstract details
Integrated Assessment Modelling to Enhance Climate Policy Design in Thailand

B. Limmeechokchai (1)
(1) THAMMASAT University, Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology, Pathumthani, Thailand

Abstract content

In the climate change framework, there is a gap between modeling analyses and policy development. The adoption of national climate policy from modeling analyses depends on several factors. Through policy dialogue on pathways to low emission development, Thailand succeeded to reflect the modeling analysis into actual policy development in its Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) in 2014. Thailand’s scenario studies on NAMA and NAMA roadmap development in the country have been very  successful. In COP20, Thailand communicated its mitigation pledge for greenhouse gases (GHG) reduction potential in 2020 to UNFCCC. Thailand experienced in Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) in the climate policy design. In addition, presently Thailand is also employing IAM in designing its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) for its GHG reduction potential in 2030. It is clear that the IAM is an effective catalytic role to enhance the policy dialogue. This lesson learnt can be applicable to other regions as a “good practice” of climate policy design; though adaptation is needed to fit local conditions.

Development of scientific tools and their application to Asian countries toward low carbon society

T. Masui (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan), M. Kainuma (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies / National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), F. Tsuyoshi (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan)

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Development of scientific tools and their application to Asian countries toward low carbon society

T. Masui (1) ; M. Kainuma (2) ; F. Tsuyoshi (1)
(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; (2) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies / National Institute for Environmental Studies, Senior research advisor / fellow, Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract content

Asia will play an important role to achieve the 2 degree target because the region is expected to witness rapid economic growth during the 21st century. Resulting greenhouse gas emissions are likely to grow rapidly as well if appropriate countermeasures are not taken. In Asia, researchers have been increasingly working together with a common goal in the development of future scenarios and collective solutions for realizing a low carbon society. Together with several Asian researchers we have been carrying out analyses of the various initiatives with a focus on low carbon society. Based on our integrated assessment model, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), as a common tool of analysis, quantitative visions and roadmaps to achieve the 2 degree target have been investigated, and results shared among researchers in Asia. The researchers in Asian countries have been applying the AIM to analyse low carbon future targets and optimal roadmaps for their countries. They have been sharing results and the implementation process in order to design collective solutions for national low carbon policies, infrastructure plans, eco-model city designs, and industrial transformation characteristics. During all these collaborative research network activities, scientific methods such as analytical techniques, simulation models and evaluation indicators have been shared, investigated and refined. Moreover, these international research platforms have already made tremendous contribution to comparative analysis of socio-economic characteristics among different countries, and to actual policy making process through dialogues between stakeholders and researchers. The purpose of our presentation is to demonstrate, firstly, the structure of the AIM as the integrated future scenario simulation system toward analyzing low carbon society and developing roadmap to achieve 2 degree target. Secondly, we will showcase examples of transformative actions towards low carbon society in some countries. The examples include project designs that lead to green city such as low carbon new city development plan. Thirdly, from our experiences of the interaction between researchers and policymakers, we will show the importance of scientific analysis based policy discussions. Fourth, we will demonstrate the use of monitoring and observation system in order to validate future scenarios for low carbon society and develop roadmap to achieve 2 degree target. Finally, by combining all these efforts, the presentation will highlight Asian example as a reference for rest of the world in regional cooperation, collaborative process of developing integrated tools and common solutions to realize low carbon society.

Science Policy dialogue to formulae Low carbon society blueprint of cities in developing countries – The case of Iskandar Malaysia

C. S. Ho (University of Technology Malaysia, Johor bahru, Johor, Malaysia)

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Science Policy dialogue to formulae Low carbon society blueprint of cities in developing countries – The case of Iskandar Malaysia

CS. Ho (1)
(1) University of Technology Malaysia, Built Environment, Johor bahru, Johor, Malaysia

Abstract content

Our common future under climate change needs knowledge sharing platform to promote low carbon societies (LCS). It is imperative in long run for developing countries “leapfrogging”  to low carbon society to stabilize climate.  Fast growing cities in Asia including Malaysia have large potential to leapfrog to low carbon societies by integrating mitigation and adaptation measures in managing urban development infrastructure to cater for the rapid urbanisation and industrialisation. With holistic climate resilient planning, low carbon society blueprint may achieve the co benefit of government objectives to strengthen economic competitiveness and improve quality of life, and its aspiration for promoting green economic growth and greater sustainability.

This presentation outlines the experiences gained and lessons learnt through the multidisciplinary ‘Science-to-Action’ (S2A) approach to drawing up and mainstreaming the Low Carbon Society Blueprint for Iskandar Malaysia 2025 (LCSBP-IM2025) for implementation in Iskandar Malaysia (IM), a rapidly developing urban region in the southernmost tip of Peninsular Malaysia. This is also in line with the commitment of Malaysian government to the voluntarily reduction pledge in COP15 of carbon emission intensity of GDP by 40% by 2020 based on the 2005 level.

The LCSBP-IM2025 is the outcome of an internationally funded joint research under the SATREPS program that brings together Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM), Kyoto University, Japan’s National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Okayama University and the Iskandar Regional Development Authority (IRDA) in a unique ‘academia-policymaker’ partnership towards crafting a LCS pathway to guide and sustainably manage the projected rapid development in IM in the next 10 years. A methodology has been developed to formulate IM’s future LCS scenarios; propose 12 LCS Actions to achieve the LCS scenarios; quantify the GHG emission reduction potential of the proposed LCS Actions with Asia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM models) ; and continuously engage local stakeholders for feedback and opinions in a series of Focus Group Discussions (FGDs).

To ensure effective implementation of S2A, since the Blueprint’s launching, the Iskandar Malaysia Actions for a Low Carbon Future was launched, outlining 10 priority projects selected from the LCSBP-IM2025’s 281 programs for implementation in IM in the 2013-2015 period; the projects are now in various stages of implementation, yielding real impacts on IM’s progression towards it LCS goal.

The project offers valuable lessons especially in terms of advancing scientific research on and, importantly, into real actions LCS into policymaking. These include the importance of having strong highest-level government support; aligning LCS Actions and programs to higher-level development priorities; taking policymakers on-board the research team as active researchers; continuously actively engaging local communities and stakeholders through FGDs; and overcoming ‘science-policy gaps’ and ‘disciplinary gaps’ that are bound to arise. Most importantly, the methodology can also be disseminated to other developing countries where implementation of low carbon society policies that will eventually contribute to mitigating global climate change through real cuts in GHG emissions while still achieving a desired level of economic growth.

Shifting the Epistemology of Gender and Climate Change

C. Jost (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya), N. Ferdous, (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya), A. Otzelberger (Independent Consultant, London, United Kingdom), P. Kristjanson (World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Washington D.C., United States of America)

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Shifting the Epistemology of Gender and Climate Change

C. Jost (1) ; N. Ferdous, (1) ; A. Otzelberger (2) ; P. Kristjanson (3)
(1) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Climate Change Science Domain, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Independent Consultant, London, United Kingdom; (3) World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Climate change science domain, Washington D.C., United States of America

Abstract content

Shifting the Epistemology of Gender and Climate Change

 

 

Christine Jost, Nafisa Ferdous, Agnes Otzelberger, Patti Kristjanson

 

 

Abstract

 

To move the discourse related to gender and climate change beyond the conceptualization of women as a homogenously vulnerable group, we engaged in a social learning experiment that led to the creation of the Gender and Inclusion Toolbox jointly produced by CCAFS, ICRAF and CARE.  By documenting the processes used, we were able to observe how changing research power and norms, and shifting incentives through partnerships, were possible despite the complexity of actors and interests involved.  We achieved triple-loop-learning, as feedback from scientists and field-testing looped back to re-evaluating and changing modules, methods and practices.  Joint learning can happen in planned or unplanned ways, and research interests shifted too autonomously to involve all planned partners, while opportunities to work with others arose. In this sense, the triple-loop-learning that lead to the decision to orient the Toolbox as a development practitioner’s resource rather than a purely research resource also led to changes in our partnership needs.  As we moved away from expert knowledge and technical language, the assumption that communities have the capacity to shape discourse and also their own development visions took better hold.   In this way, the role and sensitization of development practitioners in doing participatory research and social differentiation analysis became of upmost importance in promoting social learning across diverse groups.  Shifting the research process to be more participatory and investing in downstream actors can be a critical intervention to improve gender and social differentiation analysis.  If development practitioners are not expected to share in responsibility over research outputs, and in many cases have no idea what research objectives and approaches in a study are, conducting gender-sensitive research in particular becomes highly problematic. 

 

Keywords:  gender, social learning, triple-loop-learning, participation

Transformative Potential of the UNFCCC's New Market Mechanism

L. Hermwille (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Envrionment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany), W. Obergassel, (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Envrionment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany), C. Arens, (Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Envrionment and Energy, Wuppertal, Germany)

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Transformative Potential of the UNFCCC's New Market Mechanism

L. Hermwille (1) ; W. Obergassel, (1) ; C. Arens, (1)
(1) Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Envrionment and Energy, Energy, Transport and Climate Policy, Wuppertal, Germany

Abstract content

There is general agreement that preventing dangerous climate change requires a fundamental transformation of the global economy. For instance, the latest assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that “The stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels requires a fundamental transformation of the energy supply system, including the long-term phase-out of unabated fossil fuel conversion technologies and their substitution by low-GHG alternatives”.

The call for transformation has been taken up in international climate policy. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) has been given the mandate to promote a “paradigm shift” and other international funding mechanisms such as the British-German NAMA Facility also demand that activities should contribute to “transformational change”. However, public finance, disbursed through the GCF or bilaterally, will not suffice to provide the means of implementation at the levels required to meet the extraordinary challenge ahead. Private funding will have to accompany these public funds in order to spur the necessary investments in sustainable infrastructures worldwide. Market-based mitigation instruments have been proposed by many to leverage such private sector engagement.

A New Market-based Mechanism (NMM) was already defined under the UNFCCC in 2011 in Durban. While further discussions on its design have stalled, it is to be guided by a set of criteria that include inter alia that the NMM should stimulate mitigation across broad segments of the economy, safe-guard environmental integrity, and ensure a net decrease of global greenhouse gas emissions. The EU has called for the NMM to “facilitate transition towards low carbon economy and attract further international investment”.

On this basis, our contribution analyses what the transformative potential of the NMM is in general and how it should be designed in order to maximize this potential? As basis for the discussion, the paper first synthesises how transformation has been defined in scientific literature and existing climate policy initiatives. Based on this synthesis the paper establishes criteria for how to determine transformational impact. Second, the paper examines the transformative potential of market-based instruments on the basis of the EU ETS, so far the largest market-based mitigation instrument in existence. Third, the paper takes stock of the current discussion on the design of the NMM and applies some of the insights from the case study analysis to the case of the NMM. We conclude by translating these insights into policy recommendations for the further consideration of the NMM under the UNFCCC.

Effectuating Humane Societal Transformation through Effective Collaborative Governance - A Holistic System-Cybernetic Model

J. Ostergaard (Malik, St. Gallen, Switzerland)

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Effectuating Humane Societal Transformation through Effective Collaborative Governance - A Holistic System-Cybernetic Model

J. Ostergaard (1)
(1) Malik, Global Transformation Initiatives, St. Gallen, Switzerland

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In order to ensure reliable governance and control of the Great Transfromation21 (The paradigm for the special kind of change called substitution or creative destruction) Malik is providing the most advanced systems, tools and methods for mastering complexity and ensuring effectiveness.

While in earlier times, societal revolutions were induced by groundbreaking technological innovations, today social technology of system-cybernetic management will revolutionize the functioning of companies, societal organizations and whole countries.

The Malik Governance Systems® - Management operating systems of a new era Management for people and management for organizations are the fields of application of Malik's holistic management and governance systems. These systems create the conditions in which people can effectively transform their own strengths into performance, thus achieve their goals, see meaning in what they are doing and find fulfillment.

The Malik Governance Systems® have unique characteristics that enable people and organizations to overcome any management challenge. The Syntegration® methodology is at the heart of the transformative power -  a highly innovative social technology for profound change. It increases the performance of any organization immensely.

During a Syntegration the knowledge of a large group of people is effectively combined. Executives around the world apply it for developing solutions to their most complex challenges and for simultaneously achieving strong commitment and fast implementation. The basic model for the functioning of Syntegrations is the most complex platonic solid, the icosahedron and its geometrical-mathematical properties. These determine the logic of the communication linkage of large groups of people.

The Syntegration approach allows highly complex challenges, often interlinked across the whole organization or even across sectors of society to be mastered quickly, effectively, cheaply and holistically. This requires the simultaneous collaboration of all the specialists who, when networked together, have the necessary knowledge to find solutions for the problems.

The results of the Syntegration include the following two effects: on the one hand, it leads to innovative solutions by releasing the existing creative intelligence in the system, and by making full use of all available knowledge. On the other hand, the hierarchy-free participation of all those involved mobilizes the social engagement required for efficient, accurate and speedy implementation. The effectiveness and speed of this method are much higher than with conventional methods. It works without the periods of inactivity, which usually occur at big events, and with a precision hitherto regarded as impossible in change management.

The Syntegration method proved its high level of efficiency and reliability in more than six hundred applications across society in Businesses (e.g. Food, Energy and Automotive), Science (e.g. Helmholtz-Institute and German Cancer Research Center), GOV (e.g. Cities, Higher Education and HealthCare) and clusters of same (e.g. SolarValley, an internationally established cluster of photovoltaics (PV)).

 

Prof. Dr. Fredmund Malik

Scientist and Author, Founder and Chairman of Malik Institute for Complexity Management, Governance and Leadership

 

Malik was a Professor for General Corporate Management, Governance and Leadership at the University of St. Gallen, Switzerland and a Guest Professor at the Vienna University of Business and Economics (1992 – 1998). He is Special Professor at three renowned Chinese Universities. 1984 he founded the Malik Institute in St. Gallen, which he heads as chairman. The institute has been among the leading knowledge organizations for systems thinking, applied cybernetics and management solutions.

Dynamic of agricultural innovations diffusion in Burkina Faso

B. Zongo (International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), D. Abdoulaye, (International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), B. Barbier (CIRAD , Dakar , Senegal), D. Thomas, (Univesrité de Liège, Gembloux, Belgium)

Abstract details
Dynamic of agricultural innovations diffusion in Burkina Faso

B. Zongo (1) ; D. Abdoulaye, (2) ; B. Barbier (3) ; D. Thomas, (4)
(1) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (2) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Laboratoire d'hydraulogie et des ressources en eau, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) CIRAD , Umr geau, Dakar , Senegal; (4) Univesrité de Liège, Department of rural economic and development, Gembloux, Belgium

Abstract content

This study highlights the factors determining the spread of agricultural innovations for water harvesting since the drastic effects of drought 70s in Burkina Faso. These innovations include zaï, stone bunds, bunds land, half-moons, mulching and grass strips. A survey of 629 farmers revealed that farmers fall into five categories which are the pioneer, early, latecomer, late and non-adopters. After four decades of diffusion (1974-2013) the rate is estimated at 69.3% for stone bunds, 49.1% for zaï, 26.2% for grass strips and less than 10% for half-moons, bunds land and mulching. The multinomial logit model showed that the climatic conditions in the Sahel zone, age and perception of increased dry spells of farm households promoted the spread of these innovations. However, the low level of organization and access to agricultural services were the major constraints to their adoption.

The New Story: Climate revelations and fantasies of omnipotence

J. Freund (Lancaster University, Lancashire, France)

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The New Story: Climate revelations and fantasies of omnipotence

J. Freund (1)
(1) Lancaster University, Dept of Marketing, Lancashire, France

Abstract content

This contribution concerns the fact that modern science has methodically developed a ‘New Story’ of how human life came to exist on the earth (Harding, 2006; Hornborg, 2009; Lovelock, 2006; Swimme & Berry, 1992; Weber et al., 1989). This new story points out that humans are an integral part of planetary bio-physical networks and flows, stretching through deep time and space; and that human existence is entirely dependent on and is co-constituted by ‘dead’ aspects of the Earth such as the atmosphere, the oceans, the land, magnetic fields and solar energy, inter alia.

This story clearly has far-reaching practical, organizational and economic implications (Whiteman & Cooper, 2000; Whiteman, Hope, & Wadhams, 2013), and for many people it also has spiritual implications – because it provides credible and testable (though profoundly incomplete) stories of the existence of life on the Earth (Hanh, 2013). This New Story also has psychological implications in terms of the psychodynamics of power – which is the focus of this contribution.

Why is this relevant to climate change? Progress on climate change is psychologically blocked, and may be unblocked, because of the psychology of power. In his Pulitzer Prize winning book, The Denial of Death, anthropologist Ernest Becker described how the core motivational complex of adult humans is our joy of living – and conversely our fear of death. Becker differentiated between the physical, bodily level – where we are clearly mortal – and the cultural, symbolic level where we can deny death, or at least distract ourselves from inevitable aspects of physical reality. For Becker, human organizational systems and cultures are thus selected which suggest that we are extremely powerful, invincible, or even immortal.

In recent decades a large body of quantitative scientific data has been gathered to support Becker’s observation, based on experiments in the branch of psychology called ‘Terror Management Theory’. This body of evidence proves that humans associate nature and the body with death, and thus we fear nature; and that symbols and artefacts of power such as money, economic growth, consumer products, technology, organizations and nations give us a deep sense of power and even immortality (Dickinson, 2009; Fritsche & Häfner, 2012).

Our attachment to these human artefacts and systems is stronger than their actual usefulness warrants, because at a deep psychological level they allow us to deny our mortality, to ignore the natural world that sustains us, and to merge in our imagination with anthropogenic systems that may appear to defy physical reality (Arndt & Vess, 2008; Kiehl, 2012). The perceived authority of these financial and cultural systems thus encourages citizens to indulge in psychological ‘fantasies of omnipotence’, in particular the notion that the economy contains ecology, and the idea that perpetual economic growth is a legitimate goal for countries and for globalized society (Daly, 2014; Ellman & Reppen, 1997; Lothane, 1997; Morante, 2010).

This contribution posits that the power of these salient fantasies of omnipotence is waning in favour of the New Story. As mentioned, the New Story is an evidence-based understanding of the place of humans within the living and non-living flows of the Earth and the cosmos, including the reality of deep time and space (Prigogine, Nicolis, & Babloyantz, 1972; Rifkin & Howard, 1980). This paper proposes that the New Story is more than just a collection of scientific facts and trends – in psychological terms, the New Story has transformational and revelatory potential, because it reverses the normal cultural veneration of fantasies of omnipotence. The revelation of the New Story includes an appreciation that we are not powerless and do not need to fear nature (Searles, 1972).

In a nutshell, the New Story is an encounter with the joy of physical being; and it brings with it an appreciation of the sensitive and contingent nature of human existence (Latour, 1993, 2013). This contribution will discuss the transformative power and practical implications of the New Story, with particular focus on how the New Story may help to create the context for monetary reform and the creation of a sustainable financial system (Benes & Kumhof, 2012; Fiscus, 2013; Georgescu-Roegen, 1971).

Vulnerabilities and threat models on smart grid cyber security: A survey

K. D. Muthavhine (tshwane university of technology, Pretoria , South Africa)

Abstract details
Vulnerabilities and threat models on smart grid cyber security: A survey

KD. Muthavhine (1)
(1) tshwane university of technology, engineering, Pretoria , South Africa

Abstract content

When smart grid was inverted, two out of many main purposes were to have self-immune on vulnerabilities and threats posed on it. Lot of thread models have been developed to achieve these purposes on smart grid but up-to-date there is no better achievement [1]. These vulnerabilities and threads are posed by attackers on the building blocks of smart grid like, meters, communication media, billings, electrical transmission, power generators etc [2]. When these components are being maintained, they give loop whole to pose vulnerabilities and threats [2]. These attackers want to analyze plan inadequacy, poor design in components or building block in order to steal identity of end user, conduct deception and divulge sensitive information and data [3]. Most of these vulnerabilities are not clearly known by many researchers, some of them are not listed anywhere [2]. These leads the question that do we have enough threat models to mitigate these vulnerabilities [1]?  To answer these questions is to first conduct a survey. Albeit there is no other project  that encompasses on vulnerabilities and threat models on smart grid cyber security: A survey.

In this project proposal we will survey, discuss and summarize new threats and vulnerabilities on smart grids cyber security, after that we will survey the current developed threat models or solutions on smart grids cyber security and compare their strengths and weakness. These will be measured by checking if one threat model can mitigate more than three vulnerabilities, table of vulnerabilities and thread models will be provided. After that indication of where improvement will be done in all models is going to be indicated in the conclusion of the paper.

Definition of threat modeling

This is a solution that recognizes a set of vulnerabilities (potential attacks) on a specific product or system and precise how these attacks might be inflicted and the best technique of blocking potential attacks. Threat models are used as input to the creation of test plans and cases [1].

References 

 

 

  1. Cynthia K, Veitch, Jordan M. Henry, Bryan T. Richardson, Derek H. Hart (2013)  Microgrid Cyber Security Reference Architecture. Sandia Report
  2. Lesley and Sanjay (2013) Smart Grid Security – Privacy Concerns
  3. Torsten George (2012) Vulnerability Management: Achilles Heel of Cyber Security? http://www.esecurityplanet.com/network-security/vulnerability-management-achilles-heel-of-cyber-security.html

 

Cross-Cultural Dialogue for Sustainable Develoment ethics

J. E. Marcos (RSE&Interculturalité - Elan Interculturel, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Cross-Cultural Dialogue for Sustainable Develoment ethics

JE. Marcos (1)
(1) RSE&Interculturalité - Elan Interculturel, Training and Cross-Cultural Communication, Paris, France

Abstract content

After investigating Climate Change from a sociological and a cross-cultural perspective, I realized that the problem and the subsequent ecological crisis in which we find ourselves today is, above all, an ethical crisis. My work and research has no higher aspiration than to recapitulate some of the prima facie thoughts on sustainable development ethics to better address the cross-cultural Climate Change Dialogue and negotiations. No doubt the subject is vast, complex, and almost incomprehensible. However, I assume the risk of a disorderly exhibition of ideas because I believe that it better reflects the current state of ethical thinking towards climate change crisis.

The motley collection of ideas presented may seem broad, heterogeneous and little detailed; it is just a hint that obviously is neither finished nor exhaustive. Its purpose is to delineate some of the regulatory requirements, cognitive preconditions and political preconceptions that may be needed for an ecological reorientation of activities and social practices. I am convinced that there is much to think and a lot to work with: it is essential not to fear ridicule and to make continuous proposals, like bottles thrown into the sea.

Along my presentation, the aim of my research and work will not be to make a specialized proposal. On the contrary, after establishing the technical state of the question on climate change, I will devote a few paragraphs to the explanation of a fundamental principle for understanding why we reached this ecological crisis. Thereupon, I will try to demonstrate a central point: the importance of recovering the cross-cultural notion of planning. Finally, and after having presented some past ethical principles that guide present time, I will summarize the central problems and some of the main contributions that ethics can provide on the sustainable development question.

The problem that I will first address in my presentation is simple: to what extent climate change and sustainable development is a social challenge that requires an ethical approach? The fact is that international climate change negotiations are complex, especially because we are talking about different cultures sharing the same problems, but not necessarily sharing the same perspective about its solutions. A first clue is that socially, politically and ethically, we must act on the one factor that multiplies the emission: population. In other words, it’s not about "the way" we do things, but about what we do. We will have to expose the cultural roots and understand the cross-cultural idea that mankind is to seek best performances, efficiency and good results. 

Whence, we can ask: is there another way of conceiving cross-cultural Climate Change dialogue?  

There are no doubts: the problems of climate change comes from the current harmful development program, initiated with the Industrial Revolution. This is when it was born what Tim Jackson (among many others) calls the myth of unlimited growth. Climate change leads this problem to the ethical question of how we have to conduct ourselves with respect to future generations (which, according to the UN, are also a part of humanity). Under the aegis of the idea that we will be able to solve everything in the future, it’s been a long time since we are running forward, en “fuite en avant”.

To expect that a new cross-cultural conscientiousness is led by the current state of political representation seems nonsense. The present dynamics of representative democracy is limited to meet demands of orthodox economics and a false conception of prosperity –linked most of the time to the myth of unlimited growth and a conception of men as a free consumer-. But prosperity can not be reduced to the accumulation of material goods. A new ethic of sustainable development must favour a humanistic and cross-cultural approach on progress that encourages work culture, happiness, health, education, long-term planning and that helps to build a renewed confidence on society based on an ideal of diversity and common destiny. 

Strengthening Nomadic Herders' Traditional User Groups for Sustainable rangeland management in Mongolia

E.-A. Tseelei (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation in Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia), D. Maselli (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation in Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia)

Abstract details
Strengthening Nomadic Herders' Traditional User Groups for Sustainable rangeland management in Mongolia

EA. Tseelei (1) ; D. Maselli (1)
(1) Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation in Mongolia, Green Gold Project, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia

Abstract content

Nomadic livestock herding has been the livelihood of many Mongolians for centuries. For countless generations, herders have lived in harmony with the fragile and sensitive ecological systems of the semi- arid and arid rangelands which make up 80 per cent of the country’s total land area. Rotational grazing between four seasonal rangelands and water access combined with the balancing of livestock numbers to suit the carrying capacity enabled rangelands to regenerate, as did the setting aside of reserve areas for use during emergencies and natural disasters. These have been the core practices of nomadic herding that have ensured long-term environmental sustainability.

At the start of the transition period, there was a rapid increase in the number of “new herders” – many of whom were former State employees who had lost their jobs and turned to herding as a means to support themselves and their families. Since then, the number of herder families has doubled, as has the number of livestock. The use of public rangelands, however, has remained unregulated and they can be used by anyone. This has had a number of negative consequences: Chaotic and opportunistic behaviour in rangeland use at the expense of traditional herding norms and practices, encouraging herders to increase animal numbers without regard for quality; and discouraging an ownership mentality and impeding the initiatives of herders and local governments, providing opportunities for local elites to secure exclusive rights to productive rangelands, which generates inequality and endangers the sustainable foundation of herders’ livelihoods.

In the mid-2000s, the Mongolian government began to take measures to address the problem and to ensure the proper use of public rangelands, with the first Land Law enacted in 2006. Under the Land Law, herder families with shared access to seasonal rangelands and organised on a voluntary basis to collectively manage the land are able to negotiate Land Use Agreements with local authorities. To ensure more effective implementation of the Land Law, the government adopted an annual local land-management planning methodology in which local governments are required each year to draft rangeland use plans, to be implemented and monitored with the participation of the herding community.  Despite this initiative, the implementation of the Land Law and the planning methodology has proved to be insufficient, largely due to poor capacity at the local government level and inconsistent government policy resulting from increasing conflicts of interest that favour the issuing of mining licences on former rangelands. In addition, raising awareness and capacity development at the level of herder households is a time-consuming task.

Since 2008, the Green Gold Project, in cooperation with local governments, has supported herders’ traditional user groups - Pasture User Groups (PUGs) – in order to develop the capacities needed to collectively develop and implement grazing plans and regulate the use of common seasonal rangelands. In the intervening years, about 1000 PUGs have been supported. By September 2014, about 400 of those PUGs had negotiated land-use agreements with local authorities based on collective rangeland use plans and the adoption of internal regulations. In those soums where herder families have become organised and have adopted collective rangeland use plans and regulations, the implementation of annual soum land-management planning has become more feasible. The division of responsibilities between herders and local governments in managing rotational grazing, stocking rates and the management of hay-making and reserve areas has become clearer and is thus better implemented and monitored. At present, PUG Land Use Agreements are the only legal documents assuring herders of their traditional user rights to their rangelands.

 

Biosphere to Noosphere: Creating People with Planetary Mindset

J. R. Nair (IIITM-K, Trivandrum, Kerala, India), U. Aarathy. (IIITM-K, Trivandrum, India), N. P. Sooraj (IIITM-K, Trivandrum, India)

Abstract details
Biosphere to Noosphere: Creating People with Planetary Mindset

JR. Nair (1) ; U. Aarathy. (2) ; NP. Sooraj (2)
(1) IIITM-K, Ecological Informatics, Trivandrum, Kerala, India; (2) IIITM-K, Ecological informatics, Trivandrum, India

Abstract content

More than three decades of collective action towards securing our common future reveals that efforts primarily pegged on scientific stubs alone are inherently incapable of transforming human society into sustainable trajectory. The centrality of social sciences in this endeavor has dawned on mankind. It is unequivocally acknowledged that value enriched education is a non-negotiable prerequisite for sustainable development.

 

Three out of the five pillars of education (to know, to be and to do), as defined by UNESCO, (Anonymous, 2012) are physical and social embodiments in the Biosphere. They are easy to comprehend, define and achieve. The remaining two pillars (of living together and to transform) are embodiments within Noosphere. They are abstract, difficult to comprehend, express and realize.

 

Achievements of modern education, based on the former set of pillars are informative, but not transformative. Drawing from the Freudian ice berg analogy of human mind, the authors state that modern education; despite its remarkable achievements in physical and social planes, is deficient in its ability to transform human attitude. It is limited to the conscious part of human mind – tip of the ice berg. Sub conscious interventions transform human attitudes and social behavior.

 

This paper reaffirms preliminary findings reported previously by the authors on human attitude to sustainable development. Attitude of 750 respondents in Trivandrum, India, spread across all strata of society, towards the notion of sustainable development was evaluated using semantic differential technique (Osgood et al. 1957). It involved asking respondents to independently rate a set of statements on sustainable development using a set of bipolar adjectives on a seven point scale.

 

Semantic differential analysis reveals information on three dimensions of Evaluation, Potency and Activity. Evaluation assesses whether the respondents’ perceive the notion positively or negatively. Potency is concerned with how powerful the topic is for the respondent and activity expresses the respondents’ approach to the notion.

 

Whilst three quarters of respondents evaluated sustainable development positively, hardly two-fifth of them felt the notion had any power and reported any active approach. Both the potency and activity of the notion of sustainable development showed an inverse relation to level of education. This was more pronounced in working women in nuclear family. The results reaffirm the sub-criticality and exposes perceptional flaws of modern education in fostering transformative changes. Figure 1 depicts the threshold required to ensure transformation of human attitude. A numerical solution to the surface plot will provide us a quantitative estimate of efforts needed to make education transformative.

 

Reference

Anonymous. (2012). The five Pillars of Education for Sustainable Development.http://portal.unesco.org/geography/en/ev.pp-URL_ID=14132&URL_DO=DO_TOPIC&URL_SECTION=201.html

 

Osgood, C.E., Tannenbaum, P.H and Suci, G. J. (1957).The Measurement of Meaning. Urbana:University of Illinois Press.

 

An analysis of climate policies which include compensation mechanisms to preserve the competitiveness of the French industry

G. Le Treut (Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, Paris, France)

Abstract details
An analysis of climate policies which include compensation mechanisms to preserve the competitiveness of the French industry

G. Le Treut (1)
(1) Centre International de Recherche sur l’Environnement et le Développement, Paris, France

Abstract content

The aim of this presentation is to explore tax arrangements that can help to reduce the negative aspects of the application of carbon tax through objectives comprising equity, competitiveness and better efficiency.

This will be done by comparing the impacts of different strategies on various macroeconomic indicators, and through analysis of the corresponding distributive effects on energy-intensive sectors, as well as on households with different levels of income.

Each strategy offers different options to recycle the carbon tax revenue, in situations when it is applied unilaterally to the French economy.

We use the IMACLIM-S France computable general equilibrium model designed for comparative static exercises. It represents an open-French economy, distinguishing four categories of agents (households, businesses, government and "the rest-of-world"). The description of the production system distinguishes the energy sectors, as well as energy-intensive sectors, and a composite remainder of the economy.

IMACLIM is a "hybrid" model. It is based on input-output tables of the national accounts previously harmonized with the energy statistic information to obtain a consistent framework for the study of environmental issues. This harmonization effort between energy balance and national accounts provides an accurate description of energy volumes traded directly through their physical flow. Furthermore, the distribution of income and the structure of public finances are detailed without disrupting the overall consistency, reconciling the microeconomic data from household surveys with macroeconomic statistics.

The model is based on a set of economic parameters on which "various beliefs" are expressed, and from which we must conduct systematic sensitivity tests: (i) the adjustment of energy consumption levels in response to signal prices, (ii) the response of wages to changes in unemployment, (iii) the effectiveness of alternative methods on public finance management, (iv) the effects of price competitiveness, by observing the response of changes in production costs in France with the rest-of-world, exogenous to the model.

The version of the model is calibrated by data of the year 2010.

The critical point of a carbon tax reform is to contain the spread of a higher energy costs on production costs, increases that ultimately affect the purchasing power of households and affects the international competitiveness of firms.

 

The combination of a carbon tax with structural policies to support growth (lower social contributions) does not reduce the unequal effects of taxes. To reconcile equity, employment and activity level, it seems essential to combine these policies with specific compensation mechanisms according to household income levels, and to the exposure of energy-intensive sectors to international competitiveness.

 

Thanks to the sectorial and household disaggregation described by the latest version of the model, we consider various revenue-recycling schemes that better preserve altogether economic efficiency, equity and competitiveness.

The joint analysis of the distributive impacts across sectors, the distributive impacts between households, and their macroeconomic feedbacks on the rest of the economy, and of several environmental policy proposals highlight possible trade-offs for maximizing global consumption, reducing unemployment, reducing inequalities, and protecting  exposed sectors.

 

The analysis framework allows the design of a reform resulting from inevitable trade-offs between redistribution, competitiveness and aggregate impacts on activity and employment.

How carbon pricing can foster collective solutions

S. Qi (Wuhan University, Wuhan, China)

Abstract details
How carbon pricing can foster collective solutions

S. Qi (1)
(1) Wuhan University, Economica and Management School, Wuhan, China

Abstract content

China made great decision to reduce its carbon emission based on Cap and trade mechanism.China began its ETS pilots in five cities and two provinces which controls 20 percent of China's carbon emission since 2011 and will start its national carbon market in 2016 based on the experiences of the seven ETS pilots. As the current biggest emitter, China's ambitious action to reduce its emission by market oriented  policy will influence our globle emission reduction heavily and will be one of the important driver to getting the internatinoal climate  agreement in the COP in Paris in this year. Therefore, we will firstly compare the policy features and the effect  of the seven ETS pilots in China. Then,we will  forecast  how to step into a united  national carbon market  based on the seven ETS pilots. Finally,we will analyse the significance of China's ETS pilots to China, emerging economies and even the globle carbon market and emission reduction.

Electrochemical systems for a circular energy economy and carbon reuse: the SOFCOM pilot plant

M. Santarelli (Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy), A. Lanzini (Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy), M. Gandiglio (Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy)

Abstract details
Electrochemical systems for a circular energy economy and carbon reuse: the SOFCOM pilot plant

M. Santarelli (1) ; A. Lanzini (1) ; M. Gandiglio (1)
(1) Politecnico di Torino, Energy, Torino, Italy

Abstract content

In the framework of the EU project SOFCOM (FCH JU Grant agreement no: 278798) POLITO has developed a proof-of-concept devoted to demonstrate the high interest of electrochemical systems based on high temperature fuel cells to operate as the core of future energy systems with renewable fuels and multi-product configuration, with particular care on CO2 management through C re-utilization in different processes (electrochemical, chemical, or biological as in SOFCOM).

The proof-of-concept SOFC system, installed in Torino (IT), operates with biogas produced in an industrial waste water treatment unit (WWTU) in CHP configuration, and with the CO2 separation from the anode exhaust sent to a section of CO2 recovery for Carbon reutilization in a photo-bio-reactor for C storage in form of algae (CO2 sink).

Therefore, the proof-of-concept demonstrates a poly-generation system based on the use of renewable fuels (biogas) in high efficiency electrochemical CHP generators, with complete CO2 recovery and Carbon re-use. The four products are:

(1) High efficiency electric power from SOFC;

(2) Thermal recovery from SOFC and other processes in the plant;

(3) Clean water from photo-bio-reactor;

(4) Algae: carbon stored and recovered in form of biomass.

From a more strategic point of view, the proof-of-concept demonstrates how electrochemical-based systems could represent an important cornerstone of future energy systems based on renewable fuels, with the highest achievable energy conversion efficiency, and the total recovery of main energy-related atoms (C, H, O) possibly towards a material closed cycle.

The concept of completed energy and material recovery (in particular, Carbon recovery) points towards a concept of circular economy of energy, with negative CO2 emissions: the Carbon atom is completely recirculated in the system, and its re-utilization can be looped virtually for an infinite time.

The concept demonstrated by the proof-of-concept is completely replicable in similar context, or in completely new context in which the Carbon recovery will become a must. The impacts are now at the local level (where the demonstration is applied) but in principle the impact of thee typologies of systems (with complete Carbon reuse) could be at global level once adopted.

The concept, and its proof-of-concept, will be discussed in the presentation.

Hydrodynamic modeling of the hydraulic threshold El Haouareb

A. Sebai (National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia)

Abstract details
Hydrodynamic modeling of the hydraulic threshold El Haouareb

A. Sebai (1)
(1) National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia, Tunis, Tunisia

Abstract content

Groundwater is the key element of the development of most of the semi-arid areas where water resources are increasingly scarce due to an irregularity of precipitation, on the one hand, and an increasing demand on the other hand. This is the case of the watershed of the Central Tunisia Merguellil, object of the present study, which focuses on an implementation of an underground flows hydrodynamic model to understand the recharge processes of the Kairouan’s plain groundwater by aquifers boundary through the hydraulic threshold of El Haouareb.

The construction of a conceptual geological 3D model by the Hydro GeoBuilder software has led to a definition of the aquifers geometry in the studied area thanks to the data acquired by the analysis of geologic sections of drilling and piezometers crossed shells partially or in full. Overall analyses of the piezometric Chronicles of different piezometers located at the level of the dam indicate that the influence of the dam is felt especially in the aquifer carbonate which confirms that the dynamics of this aquifer are highly correlated to the dam’s dynamic. Groundwater maps, high and low-water dam, show a flow that moves towards the threshold of El Haouareb to the discharge of the waters of Ain El Beidha discharge towards the plain of Kairouan.

Software FEFLOW 5.2 steady hydrodynamic modeling to simulate the hydraulic threshold at the level of the dam El Haouareb in a satisfactory manner. However, the sensitivity study to the different parameters shows equivalence problems and a fix to calibrate the limestones’ permeability. This work could be improved by refining the timing steady and amending the representation of limestones in the model. 

The potential of nuclear energy to mitigate climate change

A. Berger (Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain la Neuve, Belgium), F.-M. Breon (IPSL, Gif sur Yvette, France), B. Brook, (University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia), P. Hansen, (Sauvons le Climat, Paris, France), F. Livet, (Sauvons le Climat, Paris, France), H. Nifenecker (Sauvons le Climat, Vizille, France), M. Petit, (Sauvons le Climat, Paris, France), G. Pierre (Bourgogne University, Dijon, France), H. Prevot, (Sauvons le Climat, Paris, France), S. Richet, (Sauvons le Climat, Paris, France), H. Safa, (Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, Gif sur Yvette, France), M. Schneeberger, (Sauvons le Climat, Paris, France)

Abstract details
The potential of nuclear energy to mitigate climate change

A. Berger (1) ; FM. Breon (2) ; B. Brook, (3) ; P. Hansen, (4) ; F. Livet, (4) ; H. Nifenecker (5) ; M. Petit, (4) ; G. Pierre (6) ; H. Prevot, (4) ; S. Richet, (4) ; H. Safa, (7) ; M. Schneeberger, (4)
(1) Université Catholique de Louvain, Earth and life institute, Louvain la Neuve, Belgium; (2) IPSL, LSCE, Gif sur Yvette, France; (3) University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; (4) Sauvons le Climat, Paris, France; (5) Sauvons le Climat, Vizille, France; (6) Bourgogne University, Dijon, France; (7) Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique, Direction de l'energie nucléaire, Gif sur Yvette, France

Abstract content

In the 2014 IPCC report, Working Group 3 discusses several scenarios that are consistent with RCP-2.6, with the objective of limiting the global mean surface temperature increase to less than 2 degrees.   All these scenario rely on massive Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), at the ≈10 GtC level while the few existing experiments are at the MtC level.  It may appear unreasonable to assume that the geological, technology and cost requirements associated to CCS will be met.

We focus on the scenarios IMAGE, developed by the NEAA, Netherlands, and MESSAGE developed by IIASA, Austria.  Both propose three sub-scenarios: (i) “Supply” that assumes a high energy consumption compliant with the needs of economic and social development. (ii) “Efficiency ” which assumes a 45% smaller consumption, and (iii) “MIX” which is intermediate.  All 6 scenarios assume a massive development of PhotoVoltaic (PV) energy together with a large increase of biomass.  In the supply scenario, 7000 nuclear reactors are put in operation between 2060 and 2100.  We suggest that the urgency of climate change argue for such development as early as 2020.

We shall describe in detail the potential and limitations of such massive nuclear development.  The technology for a massive nuclear development is much more mature than that of CCS, does not suffer from the intermittency limitations of PV and wind energy, and necessitates far less material extraction than these.  It requires however the generalization of breeding reactors of which only a few units currently exist.  The necessity for Plutonium availability requires a partial shift from Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) to CANDU-like reactors together with the development of fuel processing facilities.

A wide development of nuclear energy, at a pace comparable to its development in France during the 70s and 80s would allow the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration at a level compatible with RCP-2.6, while providing enough energy for a growing population and without the hypothetical massive development of CCS. It makes possible a near-total ban of coal use well before the end of the century.

Renewable Technologies in Karnataka: Jobs Potential and Co-benefits

R. Kattumuri (Grantham Research Institute & India Observatory, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Renewable Technologies in Karnataka: Jobs Potential and Co-benefits

R. Kattumuri (1)
(1) Grantham Research Institute & India Observatory, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Green technologies provide an essential starting point towards transformation for resource efficiency and a more socially inclusive low-carbon economy. As their share in the economy increases, it can hasten the required transition towards a low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions development-path in a cost-efficient manner (UNFCCC, 2011). Beyond making the case for early climate change mitigation policy through the development and deployment of green technology, an assessment of co-benefits emphasises the potential of integrating climate change mitigation policies with other socio-economic targets such as improved health and social inclusion (Stern, Kattumuri and Rydge, 2012).  Thus there are great opportunities and benefits to investigate, invest for innovation and development of green technologies in emerging economies. 

This study, based on empirical study of examples of off-grid solar, wind energy and a few household sources of energy in Karnataka state in India, assesses the key opportunities and challenges presented by the transition to a low-carbon economy by accounting for both the creation of green jobs and the co-benefits arising from the development and deployment of renewable energy technologies in the state. In line with UNEP’s recognition that the “greening of economies has the potential to be a new engine of growth” (2011:16) we find that a green economy may provide the necessary stimulus for a more socially inclusive development path (ADB, 2013) where co-benefits are crucial. Our research, is the first of its kind in India. It is based on primary data from households, private companies and NGOs based in Karnataka, derives estimates for jobs potential using local employment factors in Karnataka and shows strong evidence of opportunities for jobs potential.

The main objectives of the study are:

1. Identify specific renewable technologies being developed and deployed in Karnataka 

2. Review the potential for green jobs in some renewable energy sectors through quantitative analyses of case studies

3. Analyse the potential co-benefits of these renewable technologies

4. Discuss the scope of these renewable technologies and further activities that could enable sustainable and inclusive development and contribute its share to national greening economy targets.

Our analysis highlights the ways in which the development and deployment of green technologies facilitate reductions in inequality through social co-benefits that are necessary for transformation at the economic and social levels, in addition to the environmental co-benefits that drive this transition. The analyses based on the state of Karnataka can provide learnings for other states in India and elsewhere.

 

This could perhaps fit in the parallel session L2.1 on 'Drivers of Change and Visions of Development' on Day 2.

Analysis of substitution trade-offs among selected bioenergy pathways for different end-uses

S. Chigullapalli (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India), A. B. Rao (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, India), A. Patwardhan (Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India)

Abstract details
Analysis of substitution trade-offs among selected bioenergy pathways for different end-uses

S. Chigullapalli (1) ; AB. Rao (2) ; A. Patwardhan (3)
(1) Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Climate Studies, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India; (2) Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Ctara, Powai, Mumbai, India; (3) Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Sjm som, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

Abstract content

The environmental concerns (local and global) as well as the depleting reserves of the conventional energy sources have forced us to seek fuel efficient and greener alternatives for many of the traditional energy consumption approaches. Bioenergy is the traditional source of energy with renewed interest due to its carbon mitigation potential assuming CO2 neutrality, need for diversification of energy sources and the renewable nature of feedstocks. A bioenergy system or bioenergy chain / route consist of a series of conversion steps by which raw biomass feedstock is transformed into a final energy product (heat, electricity, or transport biofuel). There are many bioenergy chains as a result of the wide range of raw biomass feedstocks (wood, grass, oil, starch, fat, etc.), broad spectrum of conversion technologies and a variety of possible end-uses.

Bioenergy alternatives offer significant carbon mitigation potential (CMP), provided that the resources are utilized sustainably and that efficient bioenergy systems are used. Certain current systems and key future options including use of biomass residues and wastes and advanced conversion systems are able to deliver 80 – 90% emission reductions compared to the fossil energy baseline [IPCC, 2012].

The CMP associated with specific bioenergy options depend on intrinsic factors such as design of the bioenergy system and extrinsic factors such as source of biomass and fossil fuels they are replacing. Many bioenergy pathways can be used to convert a range of raw biomass feedstock into a final energy product. The choices we make today will affect the amount of GHGs we put in the atmosphere in the near future and for years to come.

In order to assess and compare the economic and environmental sustainability of modern bioenergy systems, there is a need for comprehensive assessment of each bioenergy pathway for cataloguing attributes of various proposed bioenergy feedstocks and conversion technologies.This article analyzes the substitution trade-offs among selected bioenergy pathways for different end-uses.

The learning curve for wind energy in China- Lessons for climate finance

Y. Liu (Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau, France)

Abstract details
The learning curve for wind energy in China- Lessons for climate finance

Y. Liu (1)
(1) Ecole Polytechnique, Department of Economics, Palaiseau, France

Abstract content

Reducing greenhouse gases emissions is a two-way street that bridges finance and technology.  The key issue of global climate finance is to unlock and scale up additional and predictable capital. Meanwhile, promoting renewable energy is a distinct part of the global climate regime. It is then natural to ask how climate finance interlinks with technology policy to achieve long-term environmental and energy targets.

The theory of the learning curve suggests that the cost of renewable technology falls along with knowledge accumulation based on learning-by-doing and research and development (R&D). Understanding the drivers of this endogenous technological change has important climate policy implications in two aspects. First, the optimal abatement path may vary depending on the channels of technology cost reduction. The existing literature concludes that when knowledge is gained through R&D investments, some abatement is shifted from the present to the future, but if the channel for knowledge-growth is learning-by-doing, the impact on the timing of abatement is analytically ambiguous (Goulder and Mathai 2000). Second, governments need to investigate how, if at all, climate finance can be structured in a way to provide investment subsidy necessary to make renewable energy deployment competitive with an incumbent technology.

In this study, we first assess the learning rate of China’s wind energy by considering two sources of learning effect – cumulative installed capacity and technology efficiency improvement. Then, we extend the learning curve model to investigate the amount of additional capital subsidies needed to achieve grid parity of wind electricity and the distribution of this learning investment, depending on three factors – learning rate, cost target, and deployment speed. Finally, we estimate the implicit abatement cost accordingly.

Our contribution is mainly two-fold. First, we contribute to the learning rate estimates with an empirical analysis of wind energy in China. Ek and Söderholm (2013) and Del Rio and Tarancon (2012) provide a literature review on the learning rates of wind energy. Overall, the exiting literature provides few uniform conclusions. A doubling of the cumulative wind power capacity could induce cost reduction from 33% to 3%. All these studies are focused on industrialized countries. To our knowledge, only one study estimates the learning rate of wind energy in china, using the bidding electricity prices of national wind project concession programs from 2003 to 2007. Relying on a more comprehensive panel dataset from 2004 to 2011, our study looks at the capital cost of wind projects.

Second, our quantitative analysis contributes to the current debate on a post Kyoto regime of global climate finance. We propose a new mechanism by which upfront learning investment sets up a consistency between climate finance and technology target, and thereby the leverage role of climate finance can be monitored at the sectoral level. This proposal can address two main challenges of climate finance. Uncertainty of carbon revenue calls into question the result-based approach of climate finance, which only intervenes at the project operational stage, and therefore does not generate upfront financing, much needed notably in the developing world. Another feature of global climate finance is to balance the fairness of effort sharing. Moral hazard can generate perverse incentive for firms and governments to delay or relax environment and energy policies (Millard-Ball and Kerr 2012). In fact, the debate on the additionality of climate finance has been triggered with respect to China’s wind power projects supported by a policy mix including feed-in tariff (FIT) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (Liu 2014). Actually, new market mechanisms for Post-Kyoto shift towards a sectoral approach of cooperation with most of developing countries (WFC 2013; Deutsche Bank 2011). Most of these initiatives are still at a conceptual level, while our analysis is quantitative and evidence-based, and thus provides a useful support to these initiatives.

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, the potential impact on microplankton of bottom water discharge at subsurface

M. Boye (Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer, Plouzané, France), M. Giraud (IUEM-LEMAR, FEM, LEGOS, Brest, France), V. Garçon (LEGOS UMR5566, Toulouse, France), M. Lejart (France Energies Marines, Brest, France), C. Auvray (DCNS, Brest, France), M. Boeuf (France Energies Marines, Brest, France), D. De La Broise (IUEM-LEMAR, Plouzané, France)

Abstract details
Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, the potential impact on microplankton of bottom water discharge at subsurface

M. Boye (1) ; M. Giraud (2) ; V. Garçon (3) ; M. Lejart (4) ; C. Auvray (5) ; M. Boeuf (4) ; D. De La Broise (6)
(1) Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer, Laboratoire des Sciences de l'Environnement Marin, Plouzané, France; (2) IUEM-LEMAR, FEM, LEGOS, Brest, France; (3) LEGOS UMR5566, Toulouse, France; (4) France Energies Marines, Brest, France; (5) DCNS, Brest, France; (6) IUEM-LEMAR, Plouzané, France

Abstract content

Part of the solar energy can be harvested and used in different processes. Taking advantage of the natural temperature gradient between the surface and the deep ocean, the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) process achieves this goal. However, the artificial upwelling created by the release of deep water flowing out of an OTEC plant into the sub-surface layer (whose temperature and biogeochemical composition are quite different) could locally induce alterations in ecosystem structure and functioning. The anticipated effects on the microphytoplankton were studied on a scheduled pilot site off Martinique (Caribbean Sea), within the framework of the IMPALA project.

The biogeochemical processes that participate in the artificial upwelling were addressed by simulation of the discharge using in situ microcosm experiments immersed for 6 days. Mixing of deep water with sub-surface waters was achieved at different depths (maximum of chlorophyll and bottom of the nutricline) and mixing rates (0%, 2% and 10% of bottom water). Analyses of pigments (HPLC), picophytoplankton abundance (flow cytometry), and nutrients were performed in the microcosms and the surrounding waters to assess the natural variability of the phytoplankton assemblage and the potential shifts induced by rich deep water supply in a nutrient poor surface water.

Similar evolution over time of the phytoplankton communities was observed in the natural environment and in the microcosm without deep-water input, suggesting that microcosms can be used to assess the impact of bottom water discharge at sub-surface. The enrichment of sub-surface waters by 10% of deep seawater induced a significant shift in the phytoplankton assemblage towards the development of diatoms. This could have biogeochemical and ecological consequences since diatoms are major drivers of the biological carbon pump in the ocean.

The hydrogen economy: a failed concept or the future for our energy system?

P. Dodds (University College London, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The hydrogen economy: a failed concept or the future for our energy system?

P. Dodds (1)
(1) University College London, UCL Energy Institute, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Hydrogen has been proposed since the 1970s as a clean alternative to carbon-based fuels, particularly for the transport sector.  This paper examines recent developments in the use of hydrogen in transport, heat provision and energy storage, and considers policy initiatives that are designed to introduce hydrogen-powered technologies into existing energy systems.

After much hype in the early 2000’s, a perceived lack of progress led many to deem fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) a failure; research programmes were cut and attention switched to battery vehicles, encompassed within a broader view of predominantly electrically-powered energy systems.  Yet many automotive manufacturers have continued developing FCVs, particularly in Asia, and have pushed in recent years for hydrogen-fuelled vehicles to have an important role in the future, for example through the publication of the McKinsey-coordinated “Power-trains” study [1].  It has had a significant impact, with government–industry H2Mobility programmes set up in several European countries to facilitate the introduction of FCVs.  When combined with the recent launch of the first commercial FCV in Korea, and the unexpectedly poor sales of battery vehicles, it appears that FCVs will soon appear in many countries.

Another potential use of hydrogen that has received little attention is to decarbonise heat provision, particularly in those countries using natural gas combusted in boilers.  Natural gas is difficult and expensive to decarbonise because the emissions cannot be captured and alternative technologies (for example, electrically-powered heat pumps) are much more expensive to buy and operate, take more space within houses and provide an inferior customer experience.  Hydrogen, on the other hand, uses a similar boiler and is carbon-free.  We have examined the potential for hydrogen to be supplied to homes using existing gas network infrastructure, which would greatly reduce the cost of a heat transition and would avoid such infrastructures becoming stranded assets.  We have identified the circumstances in which hydrogen could replace 20–100% of existing gas heating.

A third use for hydrogen is to support low-carbon electricity generation.  Power-to-gas uses excess renewable generation to produce hydrogen that is injected into existing gas networks to partially decarbonise the gas supply, so acting as a form of energy storage.  Such systems are already been tested in Germany.  We have assessed the value of power-to-gas to support wind generation in the UK, compared to other novel energy storage technology options.

The “Hydrogen’s Value in the Energy System” project has been assessing the value of hydrogen in all of these markets.  Hydrogen is unusual as it is a zero-carbon alternative energy carrier to electricity.  Our techno-economic energy system models have shown that the trade-offs between using electricity and hydrogen depend on the relative generation costs and on the net CO2 emissions from hydrogen production.  We will demonstrate the importance of these trade-offs in this talk.

Innovation theory has shown that most novel technologies require support in the early stages of commercialisation in order to develop supply chains and reduce manufacturing costs through “learning by doing”.  Most hydrogen production and fuel cell technologies are currently unable to compete economically with incumbent energy technologies, but could do so in the future if further cost reductions are achieved [2].  One obstacle to government support for these technologies is the perception that while hydrogen is zero-carbon, the processes that produce hydrogen lead to CO2 emissions that are incompatible with the transition to a low-carbon economy.  The lack of a UK definition of “green” hydrogen is a particular obstacle to policy support.  We will conclude with an overview of how such a standard could be defined.

[1] Coalition study (2010). A portfolio of power-trains for Europe: a fact-based analysis.

[2] Anandarajah et al (2013) Decarbonising road transport with hydrogen and electricity: Long term global technology learning scenarios.

Assessing adaptation on the ground: a proposed framework to measure adaptive capacity

M.-A. Baudoin (Climate and Development initiative, cape Town, South Africa), G. Ziervogel (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract details
Assessing adaptation on the ground: a proposed framework to measure adaptive capacity

MA. Baudoin (1) ; G. Ziervogel (2)
(1) Climate and Development initiative, geology, cape Town, South Africa; (2) University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

Methods for evaluating adaptation projects are a growing concern, in both the applied and academic spheres of climate change adaptation (CCA). Internationally, there is increased funding for supporting adaptation projects, yet limited exploration of how this international funding is landing on the ground and impacting on adaptation. The key objective of our research is to highlight evidence of how external funding in developing countries is contributing to building adaptive capacity and implementing CCA. The core research question that guides the study is: what is the role of international funding in building adaptive capacities across scales and, especially, on the ground? This question will be addressed with a specific focus on how international funding enables or undermines adaptive capacities among local institutions (both governmental and non-governmental).

The initial phase of the study is based on a review of existing literature exploring to role of international development funding on building generic and specific adaptive capacity. The review will also serve to capture methods and approaches to measuring adaptive capacities on the ground. The literature review will inform a framework to track adaptive capacities at the local level, during the implementation of CCA programmes funded by international organisations. This first phase will be followed by the second phase that will evaluate the programme: “Taking Adaptation to the Ground: A Small Grants Facility (SGF) for Enabling Local Level Responses to Climate Change", funded by the Adaptation Fund and implemented in the Northern Cape and the Limpopo Basin, South Africa. The SGF programme’s main objective is to empower local organisations so that their capacities to access external funding for CCA and to implement contextually-relevant adaptation programme are significantly enhanced.

Due to the early stage of this research, the presentation will focus on the result of its initial phase. More specifically, we will present a framework to assess adaptive capacities on the ground, among local institutions. This framework is based on a review of existing literature and on an in-depth assessment of institutional configurations within the studied area (Namakwa District in Northern Cape, South Africa).  This type of research is critical to help provide an increased understanding of what constitutes an effective institutional configuration that supports the implementation of successful internationally-funded CCA strategies in developing regions. This work is important for informing future scaling up and replication of small grant-financing approaches.

Climate Smart Practices for Resilience and Sustainable Productivity: Sudan's NAPA Case Studies

I.-E. Ali Babiker (Agricultural Research Corporation, Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan), F. El-Hag, (Agricultural Research Corporation, Khartoum, Sudan)

Abstract details
Climate Smart Practices for Resilience and Sustainable Productivity: Sudan's NAPA Case Studies

IE. Ali Babiker (1) ; F. El-Hag, (2)
(1) Agricultural Research Corporation, Dry Lands Research Center, Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan; (2) Agricultural Research Corporation, Dry lands research center, Khartoum, Sudan

Abstract content

This study aimed at documenting climate smart practices implemented by NAPA at four States (River Nile, Gedarif, North Kordfan and Darfur) in Sudan. This documentation was done through reviewing the progress attained regarding the adaptive measures undertaken to enhance the resilience of the targeted communities. Climate smart practices identified include: Sand dunes fixation, forestry and rangelands rehabilitation, micro-fences in rangelands, improved rain water harvesting practices, groundwater harvesting for establishment of community managed horticulture gardens, energy substitutes, and livestock improvement activities. Areas rehabilitated on open sand dunes with range plants and tree seeds and seedlings were over 600 ha, clay soils areas covered with agroforestry, windbreaks and rangeland rehabilitation were 105.0, 21.0 and 84 ha, respectively. Rainwater harvesting structures were constructed to improve trees and rangelands rehabilitation. Shelterbelt was established covering an area of 300 ha. Range plants seeds were, also, broadcasted inside fenced areas. This was done through communities’ participation, particularly women. Rainwater harvesting technologies enables farmers to break out of the cycle of poverty through increased crop yield, enhancing their adaptive capacity through improved food security and livelihoods. Improved water harvesting practice resulted in an increased sorghum yield over 477%. Earth bund water harvesting + chisel ploughing gave an increase in sorghum yield of over 177%. Cucumber, sorghum and okra, cultivated under the improved water harvesting technique accrued a profit of over $1000. The intervention of groundwater harvesting, which involved 199 women and using solar energy operated pumps, provided a good viable practice for enhancing community adaptation to climate change through food security and income generation. Over $2500 were stated to be the revenue from the different activities of the horticultural garden due to groundwater harvesting. Cylinders and stove units were distributed relieved pressure off the fragile natural resources through provision of alternatives to tree cutting for charcoal making and for firewood collection, hence reversing resource and land degradation. Sheep and goat improvement program activities, using local breeds conducted were good practices in increasing adaptive capacities of vulnerable communities’ through income generation. Improving the nutritive value of Adar grasses and crop residues helped improving livestock feed balance in these areas in view of the deteriorated rangelands, particularly during the dry season. The study revealed several success stories and learning lessons.

 

Socio-economic aspects in the spatial differentiation of vulnerability to climate change in river basins

R. Corobov (EcoTiras International Association of River Keepers, Chisinau, Moldova)

Abstract details
Socio-economic aspects in the spatial differentiation of vulnerability to climate change in river basins

R. Corobov (1)
(1) EcoTiras International Association of River Keepers, Chisinau, Moldova

Abstract content

The measurement of vulnerability to climate change is a central moment in adaptation activity to mitigate adverse climatic impacts. Both natural and social scientists try to measure and assess such vulnerability, whether from the perspective of regions, socio-ecological systems, or individuals. Different approaches to this issue have penetrated into climate change research, and with rapid growth of attention to vulnerability, the concept itself has been re-defined, and new interpretations and approaches were developed.

Climate change represents a classic global problem characterized by infinitely diverse actors and multiple stressors at multiple scales. As a result, research on vulnerability to this phenomenon have to address at least three important challenges: (1) to improve approaches for comparing and aggregating impacts across diverse sectors and populations, (2) to model socioeconomic transformation in assessing the significance of these impacts, and (3) to account for multiple dimensions. Different challenges result in their different ‘diagnoses’ and different kinds of ‘cures’.

Initially, the assessment of vulnerability to climate change was approached from the impacts point of view where it was defined as the degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse climatic effects. However, recently the emphasis in these efforts has moved from better defining exposure and potential impacts to a better understanding of factors that affect sensitivity of societies to these impacts and their capacity to adapt. There is an increasing recognition of the importance to consider the social component of vulnerability equally with the biophysical one, thus presenting vulnerability as a function both of physical characteristics of climate change and of social systems’ inherent sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Various researches try to bridge the gap between social, natural, and physical sciences’ contributions to new methodologies that confront this challenge, primary under the umbrella of sustainability and resilience. On the other hand, a system of vulnerability ‘measurement’ should allow comparisons between different places, social groups and sectors in terms of their susceptibility to climate change risks and capacities to deal with them. Climate change consequences first of all are experienced at regional and local levels, varying between communities, social groups in a community and even between individual households.

Based on evidences that surface waters are especially sensitive to changes in climate, the main goal of this contribution is to present the pioneer assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to climate change of the Dniester River basin at its local level, namely - at the level of Moldova’s administrative-territorial units (ATU). To address this task there was proposed and practically realized a relevant methodology that included development of a set of specific indicators and proxies describing the natural and socioeconomic systems sensitivity to climate change impacts and adaptive capacity to confront them. Through a ranking approach, the relative vulnerability of each ATU was calculated by summing its sensitivity and adaptive capacity ranks, arranged respectively in an increasing or decreasing order; the latter were obtained as combinations of their primary indicator ranks. To better understand the drivers of vulnerability and to compare ATUs in terms of risks, which they can face from climate change impacts, as well as their capacity to deal with their adverse consequences, the spatial models of local vulnerability and its components distribution were carried out. Corresponding mapping revealed areas that are the most vulnerable and are needed in special attention in climate change adaptation. In a final stage, the Dniester basin’s “hotspots” were discussed with wide public participation.

The proposed integrated approach to local vulnerabilities assessment facilitates allocation of limited resources equitably and efficiently among different entities – regions, administrative groups or different proponents of adaptation that is especially important for transition economies, to which Moldova is attributed.  

Smallholder farmers in the Great Ruaha River sub-Basin of Tanzania: coping or adapting to climate stresses?

N. M. Pauline (University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of)

Abstract details
Smallholder farmers in the Great Ruaha River sub-Basin of Tanzania: coping or adapting to climate stresses?

NM. Pauline (1)
(1) University of Dar es Salaam, Institute of Resources Assessment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of

Abstract content

Climate change and variability are pervasive contemporary realities in Africa. In this paper, we investigate the changes that have occurred in the Great Ruaha River sub-Basin (GRRB), Tanzania. By making use of a mixed-methods approach, including both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods, we demonstrate that climatic stresses have increased since the 1990s, as have limiting factors constraining effective and sustainable response options. By interrogating data from smallholder farmers focus group discussions, household questionnaire surveys and records in government institutions we show that sustainable livelihoods in this area are compromised by non-climatic stresses such as a lack of coordinated crop markets and poor access to loans, weather forecast information, and to irrigation infrastructure. Smallholder farmer responses to climatic stresses (i.e. resources utilisation, farming methods diversification) have changed over time, with corresponding changes in coping strategies that are adopted in response to specific stresses. Barriers to adaptation include limited access to irrigation water, crop markets and loans. Consequently, smallholder farmers are resorting to shorter-term coping strategies more frequently than longer-term adaptation to impacts of climatic stresses, and are thus still heavily reliant on social, economic and policy support to improve their adaptive capacity.

 

Prioritizing Climate Impact Risks at the Neighborhood-level: Applying a Hazard Vulnerability Analysis for Los Angeles County

B. Moy (UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America), H. Godwin, (UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America)

Abstract details
Prioritizing Climate Impact Risks at the Neighborhood-level: Applying a Hazard Vulnerability Analysis for Los Angeles County

B. Moy (1) ; H. Godwin, (1)
(1) UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, Environmental Health Sciences, Los Angeles, CA, United States of America

Abstract content

Los Angeles presents a unique challenge in assessing local climate impacts on human health due to the county’s diverse neighborhood demographics, numerous jurisdictions, and varying geography and microclimates. High-resolution climate modeling for Los Angeles County has allowed for climate impact assessments at the neighborhood-level. In order to address these impacts, it is necessary to develop a regional Climate Adaptation Plan to prioritize activities and build resiliency to climate impacts for Los Angeles County. Unfortunately, few health impact tools allow for the ability to compare the risk for a range of climate impacts at the neighborhood-level. As a case study, UCLA researchers have adapted a Hazard Vulnerability Analysis tool to compare eight different areas by which climate change impacts health (extreme heat events, sea level rise, air quality, wildfires, vector-borne diseases, water availability and quality, food security, and health systems). We applied this tool to four different neighborhoods that represent the geographic and demographic diversity of Los Angeles and observed large differences in the overall and relative risk to climate change impacts for each neighborhood. This study provides strong evidence for the need to develop priorities and implementation plans at the neighborhood-level in large, complex regions like Los Angeles, and highlights a useful tool for ensuring that this planning process is evidence-based. 

Climate Change Adaptation of Watershed Key Stakeholders in Talomo-Lipadas Watersheds, Davao City, Philippines

N. Branzuela (University of Mindanao, Davao City, Philippines)

Abstract details
Climate Change Adaptation of Watershed Key Stakeholders in Talomo-Lipadas Watersheds, Davao City, Philippines

N. Branzuela (1)
(1) University of Mindanao, Department of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Davao City, Philippines

Abstract content

Talomo-Lipadas Watershed, Davao City, Philippines  is the main groundwater source for drinking water of 99% of the urban population in Davao City, Philippines (Hearne, 2011).  Yet, these watersheds are in surmountable threats because of continuous land conversion, unavoidable development, unregulated water extraction, among others. Threats are exacerbated because of potential impacts of Climate Change.

 

The study aims to determine Station-scale climate projections using Statistical Downscaling; groundwater recharge determination using Brook 90 hydrological model; projection of water demand using per capita method and lastly, identification of Climate Change  Adaptation Strategies of three key stakeholders groups.

 

Results revealed that months of March and April are likely to experience intense temperature along with a low flow recharge to groundwater, and this pattern will likely sustain until the next two slice period of 2050 and 2080.  Moreover, the projected water demand is increasing from 101.26%, 228.18%, and 355.10% for the slice period of 2020, 2050, and 2080; respectively. With the potential Climate Change impact to watersheds, water deficit of -31.22 and 91.52 MCM (million cubic meters) is projected for time slice period of 2050 and 2080, respectively.

 

Stakeholders have fragmented priorities in their adaptation strategies. Domestic water users’ planned adaptations are mainly for demand-side adaptation rather than supply-side adaptation. Watershed Managers’ planned adaptation is to tap surface water and tree planting. Policy makers aim to fully implement City Ordinances pertaining to Watersheds. 

The effects of ecosystem-based adaptation on vulnerability to climate change: evidence from semi-arid Brazil

M. Obermaier (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil), M. C. Lemos, (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States of America), Y. J. Lo, (University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States of America), A. M. Bedran, (Faculdade de Saúde Pública (USP), São Paulo, Brazil)

Abstract details
The effects of ecosystem-based adaptation on vulnerability to climate change: evidence from semi-arid Brazil

M. Obermaier (1) ; MC. Lemos, (2) ; YJ. Lo, (2) ; AM. Bedran, (3)
(1) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE), Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil; (2) University of Michigan, School of natural resources and environment, Ann Arbor, United States of America; (3) Faculdade de Saúde Pública (USP), Departamento de saúde ambiental, São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract content

Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in rural parts of developing countries is an important, but relatively understudied topic. One important question is the effect of social interventions and anti-poverty programs on vulnerability and influence the possibility of social transformation (Lemos et al. 2013, Eakin et al. 2014). While there is growing evidence that poverty is a robust predictor of vulnerability, there is also growing attention to the ways they do not overlap and/or the different ways they do overlap (Olson et al. 2014, Nelson et al. in review, Patt 2012). In this context, so-called ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) strategies – i.e. options that combine community management of natural resources with specific agro-ecological technical assistance and production methods – have gained wider attention specifically in Latin America as means for reducing vulnerability to climatic extremes while simultaneously contributing to local sustainable development (Magrin et al., 2014). But while the role of sustainable use of biodiversity for climate adaptation is relatively unquestioned, there is little evidence on the effects on reducing social vulnerability, particularly when assessed in the context of ongoing anti-poverty programs.

This study assesses the effects of ecosystem-based sustainability projects on smallholder farmers. We focus our research on drought-vulnerable communities in Northeast Brazil where we have already carried out research and collected longitudinal data at the household (in 1998, 2012, 2013 and 2014) and municipal (in 1998 and 2012) levels at the intersection of livelihoods, technological innovation, environmental sustainability and vulnerability to drought (Lemos et al., 2002; Obermaier, 2013; Obermaier et al., 2014; Simões et al., 2010; Tompkins et al., 2008). Climate projections for NE Brazil indicate a strong likelihood of decreased precipitation, resulting in more aridization and drought (Magrin et al., 2014), which will further exacerbate social vulnerability to currently sensitive populations in the region.

Our motivation for carrying out the research in Brazil is the ability to locate the analysis in the context of a much larger social experiment in poverty elimination implemented by the Brazilian government since the late 1990s called Programa Bolsa Família. The program provides a conditional cash allowance to all households with school age children and whose income is below a minimum amount established by the government. In order to qualify for the allowance families have to enroll and keep their children in school and provide basic health care (e.g. vaccination). One hypothesis behind the Bolsa Familia program is that it will slowly eliminate severe poverty in Brazil and potentially transform the livelihoods of the segments of the population that currently live below the poverty line (below 2 dollars a day).

First evidence by our research supports the hypothesis that although Bolsa Família is necessary for families it is also insufficient to reduce vulnerability to drought. On the other hand, ecosystem-based strategies carried out through regional Conservation and Sustainable Use of Biodiversity Programs in NE Brazil seem to enable rural farmers to maintain their food security (including access and nutrition values) at higher levels as well as to contribute to income generation.

Empirical findings from this research will critically contribute to both scholarship and policymaking. Currently, there is debate among academics and practitioners alike regarding the best types of actions to reduce the risk of experiencing harm derived from extreme events particularly within the developing world where losses are expected to be significant. In order to support household adaptation, policy makers must decide whether it is more effective to invest in measures that will reduce vulnerability to a broad range of both climatic and non-climatic stressors, or whether it is best to focus on enhancing specific capacities to manage particular hazards. In terms of the livelihood framework, policy-makers must decide which types of livelihood assets should be strengthened through public investment and support. This research will contribute to this debate by providing empirical evidence of the role of anti-poverty programs in building vulnerable households’ and individuals’ adaptive capacity to climate impact.

Climate Change Adaptation and Household Resilience to Shocks in Ethiopia

E. Basauri Bryan (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America)

Abstract details
Climate Change Adaptation and Household Resilience to Shocks in Ethiopia

E. Basauri Bryan (1)
(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America

Abstract content

Rural households in Ethiopia that depend on agriculture for their livelihood are highly susceptible to climate variability and change. A number of adaptation strategies have been identified as having great potential to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and change and many of these practices have already been adopted by agricultural households. However, few studies have assessed the extent to which particular practices actually increase resilience to climate shocks, which are becoming more frequent with climate change. This paper assesses the effectiveness of key adaptation strategies in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia by examining the extent to which adoption of these practices protects household assets following a climate shock, drawing on data collected through two rounds of a survey of 1,000 agricultural households in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia.

Climate change adaptation of community-based drinking water organizations: challenges and solutions

R. Madrigal, (CATIE, Cartago, Costa Rica), F. Alpizar (CATIE, Cartago, Costa Rica)

Abstract details
Climate change adaptation of community-based drinking water organizations: challenges and solutions

R. Madrigal, (1) ; F. Alpizar (1)
(1) CATIE, Economics and environment for development program, Cartago, Costa Rica

Abstract content

Due to climate change and variability, drought events are expected to be more intense and prolonged in different areas of Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC), with significant impacts in the volume, timing, and quality of water provided by water suppliers (Kundzewicz et al. 2008). Community-based drinking water organizations (CBDWO) are the most important providers of water in rural areas of LAC and play a key role in decentralization and democratization processes in the region. The inherent capacities of CBDWO to adapt to expected impacts of droughts would be much conditioned by their capacities to initiate and catalyze collective processes in the communities they represent.

The rich background of actual and historical responses that CBDWO have given to drought phenomena is an essential starting point for understanding both processes and limitations to adapt to future adverse climatic events. The complex nature of collective adaptation processes involves the identification and analysis of relationships among different actors in the communities, the governance structure in which they interact, the physical and natural resource base on which they depend and the social, economic, demographic and political setting in which they reside.

Around 1500 CBDWO provide water to 60% of people in the driest rural areas of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. We randomly selected a sample of 130 CBDWO in these two countries to collect information, through interviews to CBDWO leaders and surveys to water customers, on governance and financial characteristics, performance indicators (e.g. hours of water service), technical features of the existing infrastructure as well as adaptation investments from these water providers, among other relevant indicators. This information helped us to identify empirically the factors that influence the performance of CBDWO in the context of droughts; enumerate the adaptation measures implemented by CBDWO to deal with these disturbances and acknowledge the specific challenges and facilitating conditions for the implementation of these measures and for building drought preparedness.

We found that CBDWO implement different hard (e.g infrastructure improvement), soft (e.g. rationing) and ecosystem based (e.g. protection of recharge areas) adaptation measures to deal with droughts and water scarcity in general. One of the main factors that facilitate capital intensive adaptation measures (e.g infrastructure measures such as water metering systems at home, storage capacity augmentation) is the ability of CBDWO to mobilize internal and external financial resources, which further depends on social capital (internal and external networks) and the governance structure. In particular, some conditions seem to be necessary for adapting to driest scenarios: water fees for recovering costs and incentivizing rational consumption; external mechanisms for financing water investments; legitimate, transparent and functional governance structures at the local level; and technical expertise complementing local knowledge.  

Our results suggests that in most cases external support is critical for climate change adaptation of CBDWO. This has important implications for adaptation policy design and the role for development assistance in supporting adaptive capacity. In this regard we propose a long-term integral approach minimizing the incentives to perpetuate external dependency on limited governmental funds and international donors for maintenance, replacement and expansion of water infrastructure and investment in climate change preparedness. This approach should promote the long-term financial sustainability of CBDWO through improved mechanisms for cost-recovery, accessible financial options (e.g. through public-private banking partnerships) and conditioned subsidies under critical circumstances. These efforts should be accompanied by reachable opportunities for training in administrative and technical aspects of water management. Finally, the availability of more precise and updated information on how climate change would affect local water systems is an important pillar in this approach.

Generating Knowledge and Capacity for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Water Security

F. Picado (Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC, in Spanish), Panama, Panama), O. Jordan (CATHALAC, Panama, Panama), M. Moran (CATHALAC, Panama, Panama), O. Smith, (CATHALAC, Panama, Panama), J. Guardia, (CATHALAC, Panama, Panama), C. L. A. Del (CATHALAC, Panama, Panama), J. Perez, (CATHALAC, Panama, Panama), M. Oyuela, (CATHALAC, Panama, Panama), G. Santos, (University of San Carlos (USAC)/, Guatemala, Guatemala), J. Contreras, (Tecnolological Institute of Santo Domingo (INTEC, in Spanish), Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic), H. Alvarado, (CUNOC/ USAC, Quetzaltenango, Guatemala)

Abstract details
Generating Knowledge and Capacity for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Water Security

F. Picado (1) ; O. Jordan (2) ; M. Moran (3) ; O. Smith, (3) ; J. Guardia, (3) ; CLA. Del (4) ; J. Perez, (2) ; M. Oyuela, (2) ; G. Santos, (5) ; J. Contreras, (6) ; H. Alvarado, (7)
(1) Water Center for the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the Caribbean (CATHALAC, in Spanish), Director General, Panama, Panama; (2) CATHALAC, Panama, Panama; (3) CATHALAC, Research, Panama, Panama; (4) CATHALAC, Ict, Panama, Panama; (5) University of San Carlos (USAC)/, Guatemala, Guatemala; (6) Tecnolological Institute of Santo Domingo (INTEC, in Spanish), Environmental dept., Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic; (7) CUNOC/ USAC, Quetzaltenango, Guatemala

Abstract content

This research seeks to narrow the existing gap between scientific knowledge on climate change impacts on water resources and efforts made by national and local water management institutions in Central America and the Caribbean. Hence, from the start, these institutions were involved, in two prioritized countries, to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures on water resources in this region. Regional, national and municipal scales of analysis were used in a pilot basin in each of the two countries under study: the Dominican Republic and Guatemala. Research was done together with universities, ministries of environment and other stakeholders from two municipalities per basin, making it one of the key aspects that contribute to achieving the objective. This approach of incorporating decision makers, water resource managers and other stakeholders, aims to promote the application of the findings and the use of research results and to strengthen learning and management skills for beneficiaries and the organization leading the research.

For the climate change models for the region published in the IPCC Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (AR4, AR5), we performed a comparative analysis, in terms of future water availability. It is among the main results of the project, to date. Based on technical criteria, we chose four of the 19 General Circulation Models (GCMs) published in the last IPCC report, the new Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCPs). These models were inputs to determine the impacts of future climate change on water quantity, compared to current conditions. Distinct models produced different results, especially for rainfall. Regarding erosion, the most vulnerable basins were mostly located in Haiti and Guatemala. Hydrologic and climate modeling with a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) provided a more detailed analysis on the two basins. Results will be available in a public website, for consultation by the 22 countries in this region and can be used in their next Climate Change National Communications. Project-sponsored universities, national researchers, and students collectively performed vulnerability analyses in the pilot basins. Thru the project, a regional study was done in the countries with information available, to understand how the countries invest on climate and water resources. It showed that more than 60% of investment funding comes from external sources. From this 60%, three quarters go to the implementation of programs and costs of operation and maintenance of infrastructure.  One quarter goes to actual infrastructure or hard investments. In general, countries set priorities depending on the pressure over water resources from different sectors, especially agriculture, energy generation and industry.

In the policy framework, the Roman law system prevails for Central America and in the Caribbean, the so-called common law applies. Differences in motivation are evident in the regulatory frameworks among the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member countries and  the Central American Integration System (SICA) countries. Both policy and investment studies were specific to both pilot countries. The studies were complemented by a thorough analysis of water resources management, conducted by relevant stakeholders from the pilot municipalities. It found that conflicts and gaps existed in the institutional responsibilities, policies, regulations and investments to the sectors. It identified the different local strategies that allow people to move forward in terms of water security. The municipal government scale is where findings will integrate at the end. The biophysical, economic, management and political research done will be the basis to develop Municipal Adaptation Plans. Research results plus lessons learned, will be used to prepare the guides to optimize public investment in climate change adaptation on water resources. Local stakeholders have already integrated into a "Participation Focus Group (GFP)" in each country basin in a process that promotes learning, communication and empowerment of results. They have participated in the whole process; strengthened their knowledge and perspectives; validated methodologies and monitored research outcomes, and provided recommendations. A public resource-sharing platform will complement the advances in guiding adaptation policy through knowledge built together. It will provide results and products already obtained, and the new ones we expect to obtain. This platform aims to engage and share with the rest of the regional community as a means to promote sustainability, scaling and dissemination of results.

Emerging Response to climate change and Variability in Semi-Arid Areas of East Africa

E. Ogallo (University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya), E. Komutunga (National Agricultural Research Organization , Kampala, Uganda), G. Sabiiti (Makerere university, Kampala, Uganda), S. M. Mikalitsa (University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Emerging Response to climate change and Variability in Semi-Arid Areas of East Africa

E. Ogallo (1) ; E. Komutunga (2) ; G. Sabiiti (3) ; SM. Mikalitsa (1)
(1) University of Nairobi, Geography and Environmental Studies, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) National Agricultural Research Organization , Kampala, Uganda; (3) Makerere university, Kampala, Uganda

Abstract content

Arid and semi-arid regions are characterized by insufficient rainfall to sustain agricultural production. The rains are erratic and often come in a few heavy storms of short duration resulting in high run-off, instead of replenishing the ground water. Protective vegetation cover is sparse and there is very little moisture for the most parts of the year. Communities in these regions are particularly vulnerable to climate change not only because of their dependence on climate sensitive sectors but also due to limited capacities to anticipate and effectively respond to climate change. The main objective of this study was to determine the emerging coping and adaptation strategies of the local communities in Semi-arid Regions of East Africa with a view of enhancing their resilience and reducing vulnerability to climate change and variability. The paper is based on the synthesis and comparative analysis of coping and adaptation strategies employed by different countries in East Africa. The study found out that the communities and local governments are investing on several adaptation activities to address impacts of climate change in semi-arid areas. These include rain water harvesting for domestic, livestock and agricultural production needs. The availability of this water resource significantly reduces community vulnerability to food insecurity. The establishment of water pans and water conservation structures provide opportunities for the local community to diversify their economic activities through the cultivation of high value horticultural crops under drip irrigation systems. The pastures and improved fodder grasses planted under furrow water conservation structures provides the opportunity for the local community to produce pastures/fodders during the dry periods. The proactive responses and investment in conservation structures in ASALs is crucial towards enhancing resilience and adaption of the local communities from the adverse vagaries of climate change. Other projects such as cropping and agronomic adaptation options that promote already existing best management practices should be implemented. There is also a need for the integration of local knowledge in government climate policies to improve adaptation and enhance local adaptation strategies.

Analysis of Spatio-temporal Climate Variability and Resulting Challenges for Household Adaptation in Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya

E. Wabwire (Catholic University of Eastern Africa, Nairobi, Kenya)

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Analysis of Spatio-temporal Climate Variability and Resulting Challenges for Household Adaptation in Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya

E. Wabwire (1)
(1) Catholic University of Eastern Africa, Geography and Environmental Studies, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

Climate variation is one of the most challenging and intricate problem facing the world today. The resulting effects of changing climates have been of great concern to almost all sectors of the economy in Africa. This study sought to analyze spatial and temporal climate variability and the resulting challenges for household adaptation in Lake Victoria basin of Kenya.  Most households in rural areas of Kenya have adaptation capability is low and this probably could result in serious challenges in as far as their livelihoods in concerned.  The objectives of this study were to determine rainfall and temperature as indicators of climate variability experienced in Lake Victoria basin of Kenya. It sought to establish local awareness of climate variability, perceptions about vulnerability and observed adaptations with view to recommend effective adaptation measures.

The study presumed that rainfall and temperatures have not changed over Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya between 1973 and 2014, there was no sufficient effect of climate variability on households of Lake Victoria Basin, the residents of Lake Victoria Basin lacked sufficient knowledge on the effects of climate variations and that there are no observable adaption measures put in place in Lake Victoria Basin.

To achieve the objectives of this study, an empirical research design was employed. Climate variability was determined using rainfall and temperature data from observations and climate models over a period of 40 years, future projection were also be done for period of until 2100 in order to establish future climatic pathways. Both primary and secondary data were used in this study. The primary data was used to assess the implications of climate variability on rural livelihood. The respondents from the study area were interviewed using a standardized interview schedule or depending on their literacy level and availability, they were supplied with a questionnaire. Focus Group Discussions were set up to explore important issues regarding livelihoods in the community.

In data analysis basic statistics of mean, standard deviation, Skewness, Kurtosis and trend were used to show the central tendency of climate. The optimal fingerprinting (Paeth and Mannig 2012) was applied in order to quantify climate change signals in the light of internal climate variability

Africa’s development efforts in the continent over depend on natural resources which are vulnerable to climate change and variability. This study used multinomial logit models to analyze the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability and change on household adaptation. The Heckman model was used to assess whether households perceive climate variability and assess thier decision making process to adapt or not. The data was  collected from a survey of about 400 households using semi structured questionnaires. The climatic data were obtained from Kenya Meteorological Headquarters at Dagoreti as well as from gridded observational and regional climate model data sets. This study used the newest CMIP5 and CORDEX model data sets for the assessment of climate variability and change over eastern Africa. The study was designed to have an in-depth understanding of climate variability and change at small area within on regional scale. The results of this study have been helpful in influencing the policy markers’ decision making process in the face of climate variability adaptation measures at both  national levels.

Households in both rural and urban settings experienced huge burden to adapt to persistent climate variations. The variations were hardly predictable within space and time and frequently they induce disasters such; as prolonged droughts or floods which have heavy burden to human livelihoods.  The study established that traditionally, people used the indigenous knowledge to predict certain climate change; they also managed to cope with changing climates through applying certain adaptation measures such as planting different crop varieties, improving water conservation techniques and keeping livestock as a buffer to crop failure. Today the paradox is that people are not aware of changes in climate and the indigenous knowledge which was significant is now scanty in the face of scientific knowledge.

 

Assessing adaptation in evolving populations

T. Van Dooren (Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Paris, France)

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Assessing adaptation in evolving populations

T. Van Dooren (1)
(1) Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Evolutionary Ecology, team Phenotypic Variability and Adaptation (VPA), Paris, France

Abstract content

The current theoretical framework for the management of populations which are responding to global change lacks a systematic integration of the biological concept of adaptation. In evolutionary biology, "adaptation" describes the evolutionary process where organisms become fitted to their environments. The same term is used to denote the results of such adaptive processes: suites of evolved characteristics which are optimal in a specific sense. By using adaptive dynamics modelling, it has become possible to investigate adaptation to complex and variable environments, with interactions between individuals of the same and of different species. There is one difficulty, however, when this type of modelling is applied in the context of climate change adaptation: it assumes environments which are stationary and which are not changing with a trend.

By means of a textbook model of bet-hedging evolution, namely for plants with a seed bank and an evolving germination probability, I illustrate how concepts from adaptive dynamics modelling can still assist in predicting how natural populations would respond adaptively to climate change and in assessing adaptation. I will show that during gradual environmental change, populations will often lag behind the most adaptive response. Surprisingly, there are conditions where the adaptive state does not show a unidirectional trend. Its changes can reverse direction. The consequence is that populations which lag behind, can suddenly find themselves lagging ahead.

This model is extended with evolving phenotypic plasticity, and an exploration of evolutionary scenarios where the environmental change has a tipping point.

Key climate change adaptation deficits in Indonesia: Sectoral coordination and local capacity building

R. Yoseph-Paulus (Local Government of Buton Selatan Regency, Baubau, Indonesia), R. Hindmarsh, (Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia)

Abstract details
Key climate change adaptation deficits in Indonesia: Sectoral coordination and local capacity building

R. Yoseph-Paulus (1) ; R. Hindmarsh, (2)
(1) Local Government of Buton Selatan Regency, Regional development planning agency (bappeda) and dayanu ikhsanuddin university (unidayan), Baubau, Indonesia; (2) Griffith University, Environmental politics, policy and sts griffith school of environment, and centre for governance, Brisbane, Australia

Abstract content

The commitment to mainstream responses to climate change in Indonesia’s development agenda has been acknowledged in several government regulations. Many obstacles hinder such efforts, especially the lack of clarity over the functions of central and local governments and lack of capacity within the governments to administer new functions due to decentralization. To encourage Indonesia’s participation in this global issue, there is an urgent need to identify ways to develop national capacity, including local government due to their significant roles to mainstream climate change adaptation into development agenda. This paper outlines the findings of a field trip to central and several local governments in Indonesia to seek the views of policy-makers, researchers, community representatives and other key actors related to climate change adaptation. Emphasised areas for enhanced adaptation policy development were, first, institutional strengthening through the enhancement of sectoral coordination and capacity building to ensure the adequate institutional setting and capacity. Second, for effective sectoral coordination among government agencies there needs to be elevated synchronisation of crosscutting issues, and the development of appropriate coordinating agencies and appropriate guidelines for the local level mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into development. In turn, for enhancement of capacity building there needs to be elevated local governmental and civic awareness raising; promotion of government and non-governmental partnerships; and greater availability of scientific assessment and incentives as well as inclusion of local social and traditional knowledge

Bottom-up initiatives for flood risk management in Europe: How can we evaluate governance processes and spatial outcomes? (TRANS-ADAPT research project, JPI-Climate)

A. Gatien-Tournat (Université Francois-Rabelais Tours, TOURS Cedex 3, France), G. Mathilde (Université Francois-Rabelais Tours, TOURS Cedex 3, France), M. Bonnefond (ESGT-CNAM, Le Mans, France), M. Fournier (ESGT-CNAM, Le Mans, France), S. Servain-Courant (INSA Centre Val de Loire - ENSNP, Blois, France), D. Clarke (National University Ireland Maynooth, Maynooth, Ireland), P. Driessen, (Copernicus Institute of Sutainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), S. Fuchs (University of Natural resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria), D. Hegger (Copernicus Institute of Sutainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), H. Mees, (Copernicus Institute of Sutainable Development, Utrecht, Netherlands), C. Murphy (National University Ireland Maynooth, Maynooth, Ireland), T. Thaler (University of Natural resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria)

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Bottom-up initiatives for flood risk management in Europe: How can we evaluate governance processes and spatial outcomes? (TRANS-ADAPT research project, JPI-Climate)

A. Gatien-Tournat (1) ; G. Mathilde (1) ; M. Bonnefond (2) ; M. Fournier (2) ; S. Servain-Courant (3) ; D. Clarke (4) ; P. Driessen, (5) ; S. Fuchs (6) ; D. Hegger (5) ; H. Mees, (5) ; C. Murphy (4) ; T. Thaler (6)
(1) Université Francois-Rabelais Tours, UMR Citeres CNRS 7324, TOURS Cedex 3, France; (2) ESGT-CNAM, Le Mans, France; (3) INSA Centre Val de Loire - ENSNP, Blois, France; (4) National University Ireland Maynooth, Irish climate analysis and research units (icarus), Maynooth, Ireland; (5) Copernicus Institute of Sutainable Development, Utrecht university, Utrecht, Netherlands; (6) University of Natural resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

Abstract content

The aim of the proposal is to present the Trans-Adapt research project and its assessment framework that will be applied to community-led bottom-up climate change adaptation strategies. Trans-Adapt (awarded by the European Joint Programming Initiative-Climate) focuses on bottom-up initiatives to flood risk management. In the context of climate change that triggers more extreme meteorological events, including severe floods, strategies are developed by local authorities, sometimes with the collaboration of civil society. These initiatives intend to make land allocations to flood risk management more efficient and socially beneficial. Trans-Adapt project assumes that these initiatives are different from mainstream flood risk management measures, dominated by one type of use (flood protection). Our hypothesis is that bottom-up initiatives pursued by local stakeholders lead to multi-functional use of land and represent a solution of adaptation to climate change. 12 case studies are studied in four European countries: Austria, France, Ireland and the Netherlands.

The overall aim of the project is to analyse, explain and evaluate similarities and differences between the selected regions in terms of climate change adaptation performance, with a particular focus at the local-individual household level, burden-sharing and equity issues. The purpose is to understand the challenges and limitations in the on-going policy and institutional arrangements, such as benefits and costs of adaptation measures at different levels.

 

The proposal will present Trans-Adapt research questions and the conceptual framework for assessment and evaluation of our case studies, which will give insights to the parallel session 'Assessing adaptation' in Day 3. Preliminary results from one French case study will be used as illustration of the assessment framework application.

In order to identify the barriers and limitations of the current governance and management structures in flood risk management, the project develops an analytical and evaluation framework that focuses on efficiency, effectiveness, legitimacy, accountability, social justice and social capacity, as classical policy analysis criteria. Moreover, we carry on a reflection on feasibility and vulnerability of the risk management processes and outcomes, in a policy design concern.

The assessment framework will adapt the chosen criteria to the specific topic of flood risk management, providing operational indicators that will be used to evaluate the 12 case studies.

The final objectives of the project will be to explore the possibilities for up-scaling and replicating local initiatives in other countries and outlining the institutional change required to facilitate local initiatives, by providing a means of guiding the decision-making process at different levels of authority.

Climate Change Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessment: A case Study of Lesser Himalaya

B. W. Pandey (University of Delhi, Delhi, India)

Abstract details
Climate Change Adaptation and Vulnerability Assessment: A case Study of Lesser Himalaya

BW. Pandey (1)
(1) University of Delhi, Department of Geography, Delhi, India

Abstract content

Climate change and land use degradation are accelerating water induced hazards such as cloudburst, flash floods, riverine floods, surface erosion and landslides in Himalayan geosystem. Himalayas, due to their complex geological structure, dynamic geomorphology, and seasonal hydro-meteorological conditions experience very frequent natural disasters, especially water induced hazards. Natural hazards have had significant impacts on life and property in areas with high population densities and land use intensity. The escalation of risks and vulnerability has come about through population growth and land use intensification in the areas, both of which have encroached upon hazard zones and in some case, such as road construction on slopes, have exacerbated the hazard of slope failure. The association of deforestation, rainfall and steep topography was augmentative.

Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) is being proposed to assess climate change vulnerability of communities with a case study in high mountain areas in the Beas River valley of lesser Himalaya. The index consists of household parameters of all the three dimensions of vulnerability such as Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive Capability. Exposure is defined by Natural disaster and Climate variability, however Sensitivity by Health, Food, and Water and Adaptive Capability by Socio demographic profile, Livelihood strategies, and Social networks.

Water security indicators for a climate variability and climate change adaptation process in the Maipo River basin in Central Chile

S. Vicuna (Centro de Cambio Global UC, Santiago, Chile), A. Ocampo-Melgar, (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile), J. Gironás, (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile)

Abstract details
Water security indicators for a climate variability and climate change adaptation process in the Maipo River basin in Central Chile

S. Vicuna (1) ; A. Ocampo-Melgar, (2) ; J. Gironás, (3)
(1) Centro de Cambio Global UC, Pontificia universidad católica de chile, Santiago, Chile; (2) Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Departamento de ingeniería hidráulica y ambiental, Santiago, Chile; (3) Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Centro de cambio global uc, Santiago, Chile

Abstract content

Observed climate change effects are challenging government and societies to start thinking how to adapt to an even more extreme range of potential future changes that will impact many aspects of our lives. As this need for adaptation arises so does the practical details about how to successfully implement this adaptation process, given the socio-ecological complexity of systems involved. The Maipo river basin in the semi-arid Central Chile is an example of such systems that most likely will need to adapt in the future due to climate change. The Maipo river provides water for over six million people and to more than 200.000 hectares of agricultural land and many other productive (e.g. mining, hydropower) and not productive activities in the Santiago Metropolitan Region. Previous studies have shown that future temperature and precipitation changes will result in more stress to the already water scarce basin, but could also result in more extreme flood events due to a rising zero degree isotherm.

To face the multiple demands in an uncertain future with climate change and population increase, the public and private sectors as well as the civil society will require information and tools to concentrate efforts in the most relevant aspects of life that will need to be adapted. To respond to this need, a three-year project (2012-2015) entitled MAPA (Maipo Adaptation Plan for its initials in Spanish) is being implemented in collaboration with a multi-stakeholder platform of around 30 public, private and civil society organizations, both at the local and regional level. The objective of the project is to both identify vulnerabilities and adaptation options to potential future scenarios in the basin. To facilitate the work the scientific team and the stakeholders were grouped in three working groups (i.e. mountain/natural systems, rural sector and urban sub-sector). This project is guided by the Robust Decision Making framework that incorporates both stakeholders expertise and computational capabilities in a mutual feedback process to identify future scenarios, appropriate tools and models, adaptation measures and Performance Indicators, which are a key outcome. These indicators allow both the identification of base line vulnerability levels and the understanding of the benefits of implementing adaptation measures given uncertain scenarios.

Since water is the common link between the diversity of threats and demands at different scales in a basin, we used the Water Security definition by the U.N. to frame a participatory process to identify locally-based, multi-scale Performance Indicators, and measure climate change impacts in a way that could trigger the implementation of adaptation measures. In order to operationalize the definition into the adaptation process, we disaggregated water security into its five main sub-components (i.e. economic development, livelihoods, ecosystems conservation, protection against hazards and protection against water-borne pollution). The concept and its sub-components were intensively discussed with the working groups. A set of factors, demands and aspirations denoting water security in different spatial and temporal scales were identified by each working group (e.g. flow of water for rafting, volume of minerals extracted or turbidity in water). The indicators, relationships and casual links among them were analyzed and consolidated in order to generate a conceptual model to characterize water security in the Maipo basin.

The guided but still highly participatory process implemented in this study identified causal links and scales of indicators, which in turns will allow defining metrics and optimum levels to be used as early signs in this adaptation plan in process. The water security conceptual model goes beyond capturing water physical manifestations, as it attempts to make visible hidden connections to ecosystem goods and services and human aspirations that represent human well-being, which could be finally impacted by climate change.

The approach has also the potential to capture the general aspirations of the different users in a basin related with economic development, ecosystem conservation, basic human needs, pollution and hazard allowing in this way not only the design of adaptation measures that have a physical water representation but also measures that are closely related to the final objectives that water security tries to achieve: human well-being. 

Stepping on agricultural biodiversity to build resilient small-holder farming systems in West African Sahel

S. R. Vodouhe (Bioversity International, Cotonou, Benin), S. N'danikou (Bioversity International, Cotonou, Benin)

Abstract details
Stepping on agricultural biodiversity to build resilient small-holder farming systems in West African Sahel

SR. Vodouhe (1) ; S. N'danikou (1)
(1) Bioversity International, West and central africa office, Cotonou, Benin

Abstract content

There is evidence that the impact of climate change on agriculture will increase, under the status quo scenario. It is also advocated that agricultural biodiversity (ABD) is part of the solution to minimize the negative effects of climate change and variability on livelihoods and food security. In this paper we investigated the best adapted crop varieties to the prevailing biotic and abiotic conditions of West African Sahel. The study aimed to assess and test the adaptation potential of local genetic diversity to critical environmental conditions in the region. The field experiments were carried out using the Diversity Field Fora (DFF) participatory research approach in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Each DFF consisted in a group of 25 farmers, gender mixed, which received a diversity kit (a collection of local cultivars and improved varieties grown in the contrasting environmental conditions of each country), and worked together to select preferred and adapted crop varieties to local conditions. A total of nine communities (225 farmers) participated in the DFF participatory research in the three countries. Each DFF received a minimum of six varieties or cultivars of each crop. After two cropping cycles, each community selected the three top performing crop varieties or cultivars that are best adapted to their environmental but also social and cultural contexts. This selection followed a south-north climatic gradient, dividing the study area into i) dry zones (<600 mm rainfall per year), ii) semi-arid zone (600-800 mm rainfall per year) and iii) relatively humid zones (>800 mm rainfall per year). Farmers’ criteria for selecting adapted crop varieties included time to maturity, resistance to drought, resistance to diseases, yield, and food quality attributes (taste, flavour, colour, etc.). Through the DFF trained farmers selected and multiplied adapted cowpea, fonio, sorghum and millet varieties. Thanks to the capacity building activities, seeds of the farmer selected local varieties were multiplied and certified as commercial seeds in Mali and similar efforts are on-going in Burkina Faso and Niger. We concluded that cultivating adapted local and improved varieties would increase resilience of the farming systems in the region for resilient food systems.

A comparative sustainability analysis of conservation agriculture in the Mediterranean: The ACLIMAS project

A. Scardigno (CIHEAM—Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Bari (IAMB), Valenzano, Italy), V. Giannini (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venezia, Italy), L. Bonzanigo (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venezia, Italy), D. El Chami (University of the Free State, Bloemfontein, South Africa), M. Boughlala (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Settat, Morocco), M. T. Abi Saab (Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute, Fanar, Lebanon), Y. Shakhatreh (National Center for Agricultural Research and Extension, Baqa’, Jordan), C. Giupponi (Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venezia, Italy)

Abstract details
A comparative sustainability analysis of conservation agriculture in the Mediterranean: The ACLIMAS project

A. Scardigno (1) ; V. Giannini (2) ; L. Bonzanigo (3) ; D. El Chami (4) ; M. Boughlala (5) ; MT. Abi Saab (6) ; Y. Shakhatreh (7) ; C. Giupponi (8)
(1) CIHEAM—Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Bari (IAMB), Land and Water Resources Management, Valenzano, Italy; (2) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venezia, Italy; (3) Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice centre for climate studies, Venezia, Italy; (4) University of the Free State, Department of agricultural economics, Bloemfontein, South Africa; (5) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Settat, Morocco; (6) Lebanese Agricultural Research Institute, Fanar, Lebanon; (7) National Center for Agricultural Research and Extension, Baqa’, Jordan; (8) Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice Centre for Climate Studies, Venezia, Italy

Abstract content

The sustainability analysis of selected combinations of genotypes and water management practices (including water harvesting and conservation tillage) is here interpreted as an analytical approach towards the long-term perspectives. The selected combinations, specifically chosen as potential alternatives to current farming practices, should help farmers to cope with more frequent droughts induced by climate change, as well as being able to sustain their farms’ activity over time. We present herein the sustainability assessment of three different Mediterranean case studies, by analysing trade-offs among environmental, economic, and social performances of farms from the Chaouia Region in Morocco, Bekaa Valley in Lebanon and in Irbid Governorate in Jordan  growing mainly cereals and legumes improved varieties tolerant to water, heat and salinity stresses. Several combinations of different genotypes, fertilizers practices, tillage systems and water management options were tested and evaluated. The sustainability assessment, carried out within the activities of the project Adaptation to Climate Change of the Mediterranean Agricultural Systems (ACLIMAS, EuropeAid ENPI/2011/269-668), adopts a participatory multicriteria decision support system framework including several steps: (1) description of farming systems: identification of farmers’ problems and priorities to be considered in the evaluation; (2) design of the knowledge base: identification of evaluation criteria (indicators) for the three pillars of sustainability (environment, economy, and society) in accordance to the local specificities; (3) collection of quantitative data for the selected indicators and (4) multicriteria sustainability analysis of different combinations proposed by ACLIMAS. Results demonstrate that “ACLIMAS practices” increase the three dimensions of a sustainable development and  have a high rate of acceptability and a big potential of adoption.

Formal and Informal Networks for Learning in Adaptive Risk Management in London, UK

T. Abeling (United Nations University / King's College London, Bonn, Germany)

Abstract details
Formal and Informal Networks for Learning in Adaptive Risk Management in London, UK

T. Abeling (1)
(1) United Nations University / King's College London, Bonn, Germany

Abstract content

Since the 2003 European heatwave, risk management and early warning systems for extreme temperatures have been developed in many European cities. London, UK, a global frontrunner in urban climate change adaptation, introduced comprehensive risk planning arrangements in the context of the 2004 National Heatwave Plan. Its annual rounds of review and its application through local governments in London are the focus of the analysis in this presentation. They provide a unique opportunity to study, in a local government context, pathways and constraints for social learning as an aspect of urban resilience. Empirical evidence stems from 49 semi-structured expert interviews with risk planning officials from London local authorities, health and social care organisations. Findings suggest that the interaction of formal and informal institutions has limited social learning in heatwave planning to incremental changes that reinforced the status-quo. Informal networks and trust relationships between risk planners compensated for formal heatwave planning arrangements that were perceived as dysfunctional. This support from informal institutions to formal strategies undermined opportunities for paradigm shifts in risk planning. It suggests that social learning can be associated with rigidity of established risk management strategies, rather than with their change. In the context of heatwave planning in London, missed opportunities for paradigm shifts concerned a consolidation of reactive risk management approaches that focused on the health implications of heat stress. This consolidation undermined the development of preventive risk management approaches that consider social, environmental and technical risk dimensions. The results of the analysis raise questions about the desirability of learning as an adaptive strategy in the context of climate change. The presentation suggests that learning is not necessarily beneficial for transformation if it is enacted through organisational systems that are inertial and resistant to change.

Indicaters of Vulnerabilities, Adaptations and Mitigation Strategies to Climate Change and Sustainability in Uttar Pradesh the Northern State of India

M. Nandkishor (Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India)

Abstract details
Indicaters of Vulnerabilities, Adaptations and Mitigation Strategies to Climate Change and Sustainability in Uttar Pradesh the Northern State of India

M. Nandkishor (1)
(1) Babasaheb Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Department of Environmental Science, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India

Abstract content

Climate Change poses an unprecedented impact to the  life on earth. In addition, predictions about the scale and enormity of it are continually being revised   upwards so what was already a serious situation continues to look even more alarming. The atmospheric greenhouse gases and their levels too are increasing and   are creating warmer temperatures, receding glaciers, sea level rise and an unpredictable climate with a range of extremely serious and hard to predict consequences. 

The impacts of climate change in Indian subcontinent are important in many ways due to diverse topography, seasons etc.   India in fact is considered to be highly vulnerable not only because of large physical exposure to climate related disasters 65% of India is drought prone, 12% Flood prone and 8% susceptible to cyclones are just indicative.   It is a giant rain fed ecosystem and also because of its dependency   for economic growth and majority of its populace on natural resources viz Water resources, agriculture, forests animal husbandry, fisheries etc. With a large land area and diversity of agroclimatic and ecological regions makes it a more vulnerable to the impending threat of climate change that threatens livelihood security of large rural masses of  the country.India has been aggressively pursuing the agenda of combating climate change on two fronts namely  adaptation and  mitigation  and to ensure coherence between the Climate change strategies on National and State levels, National and  State plans have been envisaged. This is over and above the National Missions including one on climate change as a policy measure.

State of Uttar Pradesh possesses socio-cultural and geographic diversity with its eastern parts touches the foothills of Himalaya. It is one of the most populous states of the country with 16.49 % of country’s total population of 1.21 billion with 7.87% of country’s geographical area.  The states has been divided into  four zones or regions viz,   Western Region, Central region, Eastern Region and Bundelkhand Region and 17 administrative divisions  and almost 79% populations is   residing in rural areas of  97942 inhabited villages and 114 forest villages.

Studies carried out on the indicators of Rainfall/preciptaion of five successive years of last decade particularly between 2006-2010 indicates that Bundelkhand region of the state is predominantly drought prone while some part of Eastern and Western suffers from a flood which   is one of the important drivers of forced migration of workforce to other regions of country. The estimated percentage   of migration of workforce who have small  and marginal land holding ranges from 10 to 35%  and upto 40% in the landless labourers. The nature of migration also varies in  both the post and preharvest  season known as rabbi and kharip.  One of the observation indicated that incessant flood preceeded by long dry spell is also  negetively influencing the agricuture productivity of the region.  These are the areas that reflect more as negative indicators of productivity due to variety of reasons.  Further climate of the region also varies from moderately temperate in the Himalayan reagion  to tropical monsoon in the Ccentral plains and southern upland regions

Our analysis  to assess the flood/drought dizaster risk  by  Latin Square Design (LSD) using statistical software SPSS reveals direct relationship of degraded ecosystems and sustainable livelihoods of the dependent population who are peasants with small land holding and agriculture labors primarily.  Interestingly some measures  adopted by the farmers and the state policies  to resolve the ecological crisis  are  indicative of strategies to combat the threat.  One of the means of weather based  crop  insurance is also felt imporatant as untimely weather fluctuations are compounding the losses to the  small and marginal farmers and many have succumed over the last decade.     This paper attempts to highlight impending issues in the context of Uttar Pradesh a Northern State of India focusing   on issues of sustainability which is pivotal.

 

The Mid- and Late Holocene Climate Changes in the Amuq Plain: The Adaptive Responses to Climate Change as Indicated by Archaeological Data

B. Arikan (Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, France)

Abstract details
The Mid- and Late Holocene Climate Changes in the Amuq Plain: The Adaptive Responses to Climate Change as Indicated by Archaeological Data

B. Arikan (1)
(1) Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Dept. of Ecology and Evolution, Istanbul, France

Abstract content

           Paleoenvironmental research has shown that significant climatic changes happened during the mid- and late Holocene yet it is hard to generalize changes in crucial climatic variables across the Near East. The Amuq Plain is located at the northern terminus of the Jordan Rift Valley. The region has been recognized as a hot spot for biodiversity in the modern era (ancient Antioch, the Turkish city of Hatay). The Plain has been densely settled and its resources have been used intensively in the last 10.000 years, which has become a hub for social interactions. Consequently, the Amuq Plain has a lot to offer in studying the dynamic and multifaceted history of human-environment relationships, especially the adaptive responses to climatic changes in the Holocene. Although untangling such relationships in time is essential, given the complexity of the geology of the Plain (i.e., tectonics, fluvial, and colluvial processes), spatial dimension becomes equally important. Contextualizing the range of human adaptive behavior in the Plain, across space and time, requires analyzing diverse sets of data. In addition to archaeological, economic, social, historical, and political data, environmental data are also needed to have a more accurate and complete reconstruction of adaptive patterns.

            My talk will focus on correlating the results of the Macrophysical Climate Model with the long-term archaeological settlement systems on the Plain, which have been documented through traditional survey methods as well as remote sensing, geoarchaeology, and paleoenvironmental research. Macrophysical Climate Model (MCM) is one of few paleoclimatic-modeling tools that have been available to researchers. In comparison to other paleoclimate models, MCM has higher spatial resolution and the results are synoptic (i.e., local). Research in different parts of the Near East suggests that the results of MCM agree well with the results from multi-proxy based paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The model output provides quantifiable figures at centennial resolution.

            In my talk, first, I will present the output from MCM that provides average annual precipitation and temperature between 12,000 and 2,000 cal. BP (ca. 10,000 B.C. – 0). Calculating annual averages at centennial resolution, changes in precipitation and temperature will be plotted. Then, I will interpret the possible impacts of climate change on the settlement systems of the Amuq Plain at spatial and temporal scales. In this comparison, the size, function, preference of land formation, and distance to the nearest water source will be analyzed using geographical information systems (GIS).

Climate Change and Adaptation Capacities in Ethiopia: Constraints and Opportunities

R. B. Singh (Ethiopian Civil Service University, Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

Abstract details
Climate Change and Adaptation Capacities in Ethiopia: Constraints and Opportunities

RB. Singh (1)
(1) Ethiopian Civil Service University, Urban Environment and Climate Change Management, Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract content

Assessment carried out under Ethiopian National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) indicates that; agricultural, water and human health are the most vulnerable sectors to climate change in Ethiopia. The present paper focus on the agriculture sector, as agriculture production complemented with pastoralist production, provide livelihood to about 80 percent of Ethiopia’s population. Both of these activities are very sensitive to the changes in the climate conditions. Further, available data indicate that, in Ethiopia climate change impacts may be severe and the existing adaptation capacities are not sufficient to deal with these severe problems. Therefore, this study was designed to assess the impacts of climate change and constraints and opportunities pertaining to adaptation capacities in Ethiopia. Due to the financial limitations, the assessment was limited to two woreadas (districts) of the country- Gudura, Oromia region (predominately agricultural) and Mieso, Somali region (predominately pastoral). To achieve the objectives of the study both primary and secondary data was collected. Primary data was collected through a questionnaire survey of 100 farmers in Gudura woreda and 50 pastoralists in Mieso woreda. Further, interview was also conducted with 8 expert from federal agricultural and environmental ministries, federal and concerned regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), respective woreda agricultural office heads and expert of CSO named Forum of Environment, Addis Ababa. In case of farmers, for the questionnaire survey, sample respondents were selected by simple random method and experts were chosen through purposive sampling technique. Secondary data were also used to identify the types and nature of climate change impacts. To analyze the data, descriptive statistics, narration and document analyze technique was utilized. Both instrumental and proxy record have shown substantial variation in the spatial and temporal patterns of climate in the country, the UNDP climate change profile for Ethiopia shows that the mean annual temperature increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, at an average rate of 0.28°C per decade, further the results of the IPCC‟s mid-range emission scenario show that compared to the 1961-1990 annual precipitation show a change of between 0.6 and 4.9% and 1.1 to 18.2% for 2030 and 2050, respectively. The percentage change in seasonal rainfall is expected to be up to about 12% over most parts of the country including the study areas. Environmental extremes are decreasing the land’s productive capacity leading to a decrease in subsistence agriculture, income, assets, and a rapid decline in the health and nutritional status of the rural population and ultimately force rural people to migrate to urban centers. Latter the results of the study enable to conclude that an adaptation capacity both at household and institutional levels are very low and indicates that climate change governance framework is not properly operational. Poverty, limited resources (such as land and livestock), lack of access to credits and finance, alternative sources of income, as well as technology, knowledge and expertise, lack of integrated public policies and effective program enforcement, increase the vulnerability and adversely affect the capacity to cope with the problems. However, one can also visualize certain opportunities in the form of CRGE (Climate Resilient Green Economy) strategy,  Energy Policy and  Bio-fuel strategy, public sector capacity building project, southern voices capacity building program, international and Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) about 60 CSOs/NGOs formed a network-the ECSNCC (the Ethiopian Civil Society Network on Climate change), which proactively engaged in international negotiations (as observers), the generation of research based knowledge, raising of public awareness, building of local capacity and supporting adaptation efforts by vulnerable communities and regional and national government bodies. The promotion of micro finance by federal government and education, training and consultancy services available at Ethiopian Universities which may be utilized to enhance the adaptation capacity to cope with the climate change impacts. To improve the situation it is recommended to invest in climate change research and livelihood opportunities and strengthening the capacity of policymakers and institutions to enforce policies and programs.

Assessment of Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Floods at Small Area Level in Malawi

S. Zhang (United Nations Population Fund, New York, United States of America), M. Bangalore (World Bank, Washington, DC, United States of America), D. Schensul (United Nations Population Fund, New York, United States of America), S. Hallegatte (World Bank, Washington, DC, United States of America)

Abstract details
Assessment of Socioeconomic Vulnerability to Floods at Small Area Level in Malawi

S. Zhang (1) ; M. Bangalore (2) ; D. Schensul (1) ; S. Hallegatte (2)
(1) United Nations Population Fund, Technical Division, New York, United States of America; (2) World Bank, Climate change group, Washington, DC, United States of America

Abstract content

      Vulnerability assessments involve indicators and measurement methodologies to assess the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems, for example to natural disasters such as floods. Flood events directly and indirectly threaten people’s health, livelihoods, food security, and deepen poverty. Flood is expected to worsen with climate change, and has disproportionate impacts on different segments of the population. Poor people, women, youths, adolescents, people with disability, and migrants are more generally more vulnerable to the impacts of floods. In many urban areas, inequities will become more apparent with higher concentration of vulnerable people in less desired but higher‐risk locations. There is urgent need for incorporating socioeconomic vulnerability and equity factors into climate change adaptation planning and development policies. In this paper, we examine the vulnerability to flooding in Malawi at small area levels, integrating a number of datasets.

 

      In Malawi, we will integrate socio-demographic data with hazard data and examine vulnerability at the small-area level. We employ census data for demographic, housing quality, and service data, World Bank estimates for poverty data, and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for education and nutrition data. This socio-demographic data will be merged with spatial hazard data on flood risk in Malawi, from two global hydrological models (GLOFRIS and SSBN). As socio-demographic data is at the 2nd and 3rd administrative boundary level, and hazard data is at high-resolution, the vulnerability analysis will be done at small area level, based on the level at which decision-making processes are made. The joint paper will identify a suite of indicators to develop a vulnerability index, and examine where high vulnerability coincides with high risk from flood, through spatial and statistical analysis.

 

      The project will pilot the vulnerability index and assessment in Malawi, a country with increased pressures from population dynamics, poverty and natural disasters, where the climate data and information are sorely lacking. In addition to examining socioeconomic vulnerability, the index can be disaggregated to provide information on each dimension (demography, health, economic and flood). By disaggregating vulnerability at small geographic level over four dimensions, the project aims to better understand the socio-demographic vulnerability to floods, in a context of climate change. It is also in line with the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals and targets by contributing to strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and adaption, as well as providing evidenced data by small geographic location. The data, index and methodology applied in this project may also be scaled-up to more countries.

Green Cities: Benefits of Urban Sustainability

E. H. M. Ahmed (Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, Cairo, Egypt)

Abstract details
Green Cities: Benefits of Urban Sustainability

EHM. Ahmed (1)
(1) Lead Author, WG III, IPCC, climate change and sustainable development, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract content

In the wake of the global financial crisis 2008-2010, the concept of a green economy was provided with fresh impetus following wide-spread discussions on a “Green” New Deal, to enable a “Green Recovery”. Large investments were seen as necessary to support the recovery of the world economy. These financial investments offered an opportunity to invest in green economy sectors.

 

Nowadays many developed countries adopted the Green Cities concept as a new tool to face the environmental impacts in general, and the climate change impacts in particular.

 

With mainstreaming climate change concerns attention the world to adopt a new strategy for urban cities, we heard raising voices that asking to take GHGs reduction in account during the implementation of a new urban cities.

 

Regarding to the environment point of view, we have to take care about the whole natural sources we have, not to forget sustainability while we’re looking for development.

 

Green building that the usage of a natural or green materials in its structure; saving and reduce of other resources as lighting, water consumption and waste management are the main concern to get Green Cities.

 

The increase of productivity of workers in green buildings could achieve labor-cost savings that maybe higher than energy cost savings; challenge in developing countries is doing away with subsidized, non-cost-reflective energy prices; the quality of life and health care are also equally significant.

 

City governments need to coordinate policies and decisions with other levels of government, but more importantly, they need to be equipped with strategic and integrated planning capacities. In poorer cities, the building up of such capacities is important, as is their access to financial resources for investing in the various sectors of green cities. Here it may be more prudent to adopt a more pragmatic and minimalist approach, which primarily commits municipal sectors such as water, waste, energy and transport to a limited number of overarching strategic goals.

Breaking Bad: Why We Need to Target Implicit, Automatic Associations in the Fight against Climate Change

G. Beattie (Edge Hill University, Lancashire, United Kingdom), L. Mcguire (Edge Hill University, Lancashire , United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Breaking Bad: Why We Need to Target Implicit, Automatic Associations in the Fight against Climate Change

G. Beattie (1) ; L. Mcguire (2)
(1) Edge Hill University, Psychology, Lancashire, United Kingdom; (2) Edge Hill University, Psychology, Lancashire , United Kingdom

Abstract content

There is growing recognition of the role of consumer behaviour in the dramatic increases in global CO2 emissions and, consequently, more awareness of the critical role of consumers as a major influence on climate change itself.  Some leading international figures from the commercial world have proposed that we need nothing short of a 'green revolution' in consumer behaviour to deal with the threat posed by climate change.  The argument is that consumers opting for low carbon alternatives would drive demand for more environmentally friendly products, and impact on manufacturing and production with significant environmental consequences.  Furthermore, many leading figures have argued that the public are ready for this 'green revolution' as they report in numerous surveys that they are keen to adapt their behaviour to mitigate the effects of climate change.  This has led to campaigns in a number of countries to reduce energy use, to promote greener transportation, to highlight lower carbon footprint alternative products etc. The carbon labelling of products to guide consumer choice has now been rolled out in a number of countries, at very significant financial cost.  However, these everyday consumer habits seem strangely resistant to change and many governmental, commercial, and educational campaigns have not had the desired, or anticipated, effects on actual consumer behaviour and consumer choice.  For example, using eye tracking technology we found little actual gaze fixation on carbon labels on products compared to gaze fixation on the other information that features on such products (see, for example, G. Beattie, 2012, How effective is carbon labelling for the consumer? Nature Climate Change, 2, 214-217).  One reason for the overall pattern of disappointing results on behavioural change in this area might be that there has been too much focus on assessing and changing explicit, self-reported attitudes rather than on more implicit attitudes, formed on the basis of underlying associative connections.  For example, for years, many people have learned to associate  high carbon lifestyles with societal success (partly, of course, attributable to advertising) and this association can affect actual behaviour regardless of more rational decision making about adaptation and climate change.  These implicit attitudes can now be measured using the Implicit Association Test (or IAT) and outcome measures from the IAT seem to predict the attentional focus of consumers, amongst other things, in a way that self report measures do not.  In this paper, we will outline new experimental data on this topic, which examines the relative importance of implicit and explicit attitudes in determining consumer choice  in which the environmental consequences of the various choices are made clear to shoppers through the inclusion of various environmental labels, including features like carbon footprint, organic and Fairtrade.  The research also considers other critical variables like the influence of choice under time pressure, the social context of the behavioural choice,  and relevant budgetary concerns. The research demonstrates that underlying implicit attitudes are a better predictor of actual consumer choice in supermarket shopping, especially under certain circumstances, like time pressure, where the behaviour becomes more 'automatic', and less reflective. The paper will argue that it is crucial to understand how such implicit attitudes originate and evolve if we are to deal more effectively with anthropogenic climate change. This should provide us with a more promising start point for changing resistant consumer habits,  in order to attempt to reposition consumers at the centre of the necessary 'green revolution'.  In this paper, we will also outline a number of particular approaches to changing these automatic, implicit attitudes, which have worked in a number of related domains, which could have a significant effect in the area of climate change.

Obstacles: Social practice in everyday life

B. Steffensen (University of Applied Sciences Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany)

Abstract details
Obstacles: Social practice in everyday life

B. Steffensen (1)
(1) University of Applied Sciences Darmstadt, Social Sciences and Social Work, Darmstadt, Germany

Abstract content

“Can the Green Economy save the climate?” The answer is simple at the moment – it is: No!

To explain the strict answer I tell a short story which happened during the turn of the year from 2012 to 2013. The story: I regularly buy a coffee in the cafeteria of our student union. In December 2012 I paid for a cup of cappuccino € 1.20. Coming back after Christmas Break I was looking forward to drink my regular morning cappuccino which now costs € 1.50. Astonished about the 25% price increase I asked the till girl: “Why is the price so much higher now?” She replied: “The students’ union executive body decided last autumn that they want us to provide fair trade coffee. Therefore, you get a better coffee now and that makes it more expensive!” “Oh”, I said and started to think:

  1. What is the price difference between a standard and a fair trade coffee?
  2. How many cups of coffee does one get out of a 500gr-package of coffee?

A visit to my local supermarket revealed a price difference of about € 3.00 per package. Due to economies of scale the price difference is certainly smaller for the cafeteria. I calculated that a package of coffee will provide approximately 50 cups of cappuccino. The price increase for introducing fair trade coffee (by the way: the new and better coffee doesn’t really taste or look different) should be € 0.06. My conclusion: The student union tried to make an additional profit of € 0.24. Student’s protests lead them to lower the price to € 1.35. Let’s accept that the additional € 0.09 covered a wage increase for the till girls. This is definitely not a scientific proof but it is an evidence for a practice of many firms.

Since the 1980 it is an established idea in the marketing literature that the green consumer will show up with increasing importance for producers and retailers. The growth rates during the last decades were disappointing and the marketing of green products was more or less a failure. But firms were successful in one aspect: Consumers are absolutely sure that green or sustainable products are imperatively more expensive than ordinary products. That the difference between ordinary and green products in many cases boils down to mere credence characteristics and only in some case to search or experience characteristics doesn’t make it easier.

The multi-level approval of the transitions theory (Geels; Kemp; Shove and others) conceptualizes a transition process – i.e. towards a green economy – as a joint effort of a variety of different actors. It needs at least politicians, sometimes scientists, producers, retailers and consumers (individual households or firms in a supply chain) who have to act reciprocally and with a common interest without knowing for sure what the other will do: “do ut des!” Producers and retailers have to take entrepreneurial risks by producing “green” – consumers have to believe and trust in credence characteristics of products by consuming “green”. Our own research about environmental friendly products doesn’t reveal a lot of trust on both sides. In the transition from grey to green (recognizable by labeling schemes) reciprocity seems to be crucial.

One important factor in the transition process is the aspect of culture which includes norms, daily routines and taken for granteds. According to Anthony Giddens and others (Schatzki, Reckwitz, Bourdieu, Strengers, Wenger) we rely on social practices which are shaping our everyday actions. Decisions and actions of firms and individuals are based (1) on own experiences (formerly successful actions), (2) on recognized actions and decisions of relevant others, (3) on our expectations of the expectations of relevant others. Furthermore, the leeway to change behavior is (4) limited because preceding decisions and actions are binding and changes might be costly.

Conclusion: The green economy is an ambitious project which requires a massive transition. To save the climate needs a shift of the mindset of the actors mentioned above. It requires a change of routines and a growth of trust. Considering the theory of practice as an option to conceptualize routine and somehow repetitive behavior the contribution shows limits and possibilities for actually generating a transition.

Green Investment and Business Performance: The African Experience

O. J. Professor Adelegan (Lead City University, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), J. Adelegan (Global Network for Environment and Economic Development Research, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Green Investment and Business Performance: The African Experience

OJ. Professor Adelegan (1) ; J. Adelegan (2)
(1) Lead City University, Economics, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) Global Network for Environment and Economic Development Research, Department of Environment and Sustainable Development, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Addressing a paucity of research about industrial adoption of environmentally benign technologies in Africa and, more generally, in tropical developing countries, we examined the Nigerian pulp and paper industry as a case study. Qualitative interviews with twenty upper echelon executives representing five Nigerian firms challenge conventional expectations that energy intensive industries in developing markets operate amid highly pollution-intensive conditions, within weak or non-existent formal environmental regulatory frameworks, and with limited institutional capacity. Our findings suggest a strong positive relationship between cleaner technology use and corporate financial performance of African industrial firms. Our study also suggests the adoption of classical ‘win-win’ integrated preventive environmental strategy, eco-efficiency and green productivity which improves industrial efficiency and profitability. Nigerian pulp and paper firms are shown to have moved beyond end-of-pipe technologies and cleaner technologies and adopted industrial ecology and “zero emission” principles with appropriate reuse of the remaining waste streams turning the production system into a sustainable industrial ecosystem.

Understanding the « spirit » and legitimation of Green Economy, from selective to stabilized discourses. (provisional title)

C. Serre (Université de Lausanne (UNIL), Lausanne, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Understanding the « spirit » and legitimation of Green Economy, from selective to stabilized discourses. (provisional title)

C. Serre (1)
(1) Université de Lausanne (UNIL), Institut de Géographie et Durabilité (IGD), Lausanne, Switzerland

Abstract content

In this paper I present an aspect of the work I am currently conducting on the performative character of the green economy (GE) and the discourses produced around this theme. I study the emergence and the impacts of the GE guidelines on environmental policies, e.g. the set of representations, discourses and practices adopted and embedded by the GE actors. According to those promoting it, GE is the path favored to accomplish sustainable development within the current context of environmental and socioeconomic global crisis. While this notion stands as a common reference for an increasing number of initiatives, a stabilized and commonly shared definition is still lacking in economic theory as well as across the international community. In fact, "in line with sustainable development and biodiversity, this notion is poorly defined enough and polysemic to be apparently the object of consensus" (Chartier and Foyer, 2012, personal translation). In fact, GE can be considered as both a discursive and socio-economic construction, as it covers a multitude of meanings that change over time and space. This is evidenced by the rhetoric deployed around this notion, showing that actors internalize different aspects of the notion depending on their interests and preferences. Actors sometimes refer to the environmental economics principles and sometimes those of ecological economics. However, the language used is indicative of different and even contradictory views of economy, human well-being, growth, environment, etc. "Green growth", “sustainable development”, “green societies”, "green investments", "green deal”, etc., are frequently associated with the theme of GE. Utilizing a Foulcadian perspective, I question how GE discourses contribute to giving GE an existence in forming the objects of which they speak. Thus, the analysis of GE discourses through their form and content is crucial. Although drawn from ongoing research, this contribution will demonstrate preliminary findings and present one of the questions that frame this work: what do the merging and spreading of green economy rhetoric, discourses and representations tell us about the (nature of the) relationship between environment and economy, and more globally, capitalism? I consider discourse as “an ensemble of ideas, concepts and categories through which meaning is given to social and physical phenomena, and which is produced and reproduced through an identifiable set of practices” (Hajer and Versteeg 2005). In this light, discourse is seen as a social construct and a particular assemblage of discursive elements that structures realities and allows actors to understand their world. As Fairclough (1993) underlines, the role of discourse is not just of representing realities, “but of signifying the world, constituting and constructing the world in meaning”. My research explores the performative character of GE within the wider research project I am currently conducting, which aims to analyse whereby GE could contributes to (i) a shifting-produced process in the hegemonic capitalist model or, in contrast (ii) keeping, sustaining and reinforcing the capitalist dynamic ideologies through new register of justification and a new spirit in the terms of Boltanski and Chiapello (1999). In order to investigate the potential dynamic of change or continuity of the GE notion on environmental policies, the identification of the different storylines (Hajer, 2005 ; Dryzek, 2005) helps to map the discourses that encapsulates key ideas of GE. In my study, I assume that a particular and selected vision of the world is carried out through GE rhetoric and discourses, conveying imaginaries of hope and functioning with speculative argumentative thinking. To illustrate that, I will first trace the discursive and socio-historical co-construction of the GE notion through its evolution in time and space. I will then present an analysis of selected institutional discourses attempting to make sense of the different ways and options proposed to envision a “happy marriage” (Goldstein, 2014) between environment and economy: presented through “green” options and promoted via positive and appealing discourses, these propositions justify adjusting present actions to the GE promise, e.g. the increase of economic growth as “a path towards planetary salvation” (ibid). Considering how such a vision comes to be justified and formulated, gains prevalence over others and finally unfolds as coherent understandings of socioeconomic realities, prefigures in my view an attempt to construct a growing sense of belonging to a common future. Indeed, I assume that ontologies of the world are renewed through selected, then stabilized discourses and “self-evidence” (Vadrot, 2013).

Yves Rocher's experience: 50 years of commitments to the preservation of the environment

A. Blain (Groupe Rocher, Issy-Les-Moulineaux, France)

Abstract details
Yves Rocher's experience: 50 years of commitments to the preservation of the environment

A. Blain (1)
(1) Groupe Rocher, sustainable development, Issy-Les-Moulineaux, France

Abstract content

Yves Rocher is a one-of-a-kind Brand, created over 50 years ago, that has chosen to master every aspect of its operations: Botanist, Harvester, Manufacturer and Retailer. This specificity enables the Brand to manage all the fields in its business and therefore to reduce its environmental impact at every stage of its products' life cycle.

With half a century of experience in Botanical Beauty, Yves Rocher sources almost 250 plant ingredients with a strategy based on 3 pillars: responsible sourcing, protection of natural resources and local communities, sharing of the benefits resulting from the use of plants. Yves Rocher created its Botanical Charter, illustrating its commitment to the preservation of Biodiversity. Since 2008, Yves Rocher has also actively participated in the Natural Resources Stewardship Circle (NRSC), organization of manufacturers from the beauty industry working together for a sustainable management of biodiversity in supply chains.

Besides, new exclusive active principles are created and developed every year by the Yves Rocher R&D teams, using the most environmentally-friendly extraction technology. Formulation guidelines have been implemented, and Yves Rocher, as a forerunner in the cosmetics industry has banned since 1989 all animal testing for its products and ingredients.

Furthermore, Yves Rocher eco-designs 100% of its packagings, reducing non-renewable resource consumption, designing packagings that can be recycled at existing facilities and encouraging customers to sort their packaging waste. In order to accompany teams engaged in product development, Yves Rocher developed "eco-design packaging guidelines". This tool is updated annually and is shared by marketing, purchasing, development and R&D teams. It provides instructions to follow in terms of eco-design for Yves Rocher products.

Yves Rocher industrial facilities fight global warming by reducing their fossil energy consumption, promoting renewable energies (wood-burning heating in Britanny, saving about 1600t of CO2/year), reducing CO2 emissions (-10%g C02/product since 2010), improving water efficiency (-19% water consumed/t of bulk produced since 2010).

Since 2010, Yves Rocher has integrated biodiversity management to the company’s strategy. In Brittany, 100% of the Yves Rocher industrial sites are « havens of Biodiversity ». The Brand is also a genuine Biodiversity Ambassador, hosting more than 3000 participants/year at its awareness events and programs at the Botanical Garden and its own Eco-Hotel Spa.

Environment preservation is at the heart of the Yves Rocher strategy with the support of the Yves Rocher Foundation, in order to leave a positive footprint:

Yves Rocher aims at establishing a new relationship to nature, acting with responsibility towards natural resources and being a biodiversity ambassador to its employees and its 30 million customers throughout the world.

The Yves Rocher Foundation created in 1991 by Jacques Rocher is a pioneer in positive ecology, and strives to transform the way we interact with our Planet. The Foundation– Institut de France acts through 4 sustainable programs that promote plant biodiversity through concrete initiatives in more than 50 countries throughout the world.

Through its “Plant for the Planet” program, the Yves Rocher Foundation will achieve its target of 50 million trees planted by the end of 2015, across about thirty plantations worldwide. This program is supported by the Yves Rocher brand thanks to the sales of partner products to customers and to the opening of loyalty cards to customers (1 product sold/1loyalty card created= 1 tree planted by the Yves Rocher Foundation).The Women of the Earth Award was created in 2001 to reward women for their environmental action, initiative and fight. Today, 350 women across 50 countries have received awards.

In 1992, Yves Rocher counted among the four French companies invited to the Rio Earth Summit, and Jacques Rocher, advocated the cause of forests with the "Call for tropical forests”, a petition signed by 300,000 customers. Yves Rocher has also been actively involved into the UN Convention of Biodiversity and UNCTAD, and testified in the COP 10 in Nagoya in 2010, COP 11 in Hyderabad in 2012, UN Business and Biotrade events in Montréal and Geneva in 2013 and COP 12 in Pyeong-Chang in October 2014. Climate change is more than ever an urgent issue. Yves Rocher shall keep-on working to reduce its environmental footprint at every step of its value chain, in order to leave a positive footprint.

Perspectives of Climate Engineering Adoption in Africa: Analogies from International Environmental Agreements, Conventions and Treaties

A. A. Rose (Kenya Forest Service, Nairobi, Kenya), C. Ngonzo Luwesi (Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya)

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Perspectives of Climate Engineering Adoption in Africa: Analogies from International Environmental Agreements, Conventions and Treaties

AA. Rose (1) ; C. Ngonzo Luwesi (2)
(1) Kenya Forest Service, Climate change response programme, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Kenyatta University, Geography, Nairobi, Kenya

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Global warming is steadily threatening ecosystems and their biological lives across the globe. Though life in the equatorial and tropical regions is associated with hot temperatures rather than cooling, the drastic decrease of forest cover and major vegetations in the last century may be an argument for adoption of the principle of large-scale Climate Engineering (CE). Whether through Solar Radiation Management (SRM) or through Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), this strategy might only be acceptable as a "plan B" to climate mitigation and adaptation. CE research and technology may be scaled up to supplement African governments’ efforts to reduce planned greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and avoid suicidal climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. These schemes are cheap and effective climate “mitigation” options but may be dangerous, the safest options being expensive or simply useless. Besides, most of the countries in the African continent do not have the ability to invest in what are considered as “harebrained schemes, which impacts are yet to be ascertained”. Hence, African countries will recourse to several principles found in the UNCCD, UNCBD and UNFCCC treaties and conventions, the REDD+ agreement, and the 1997 UN Convention on International Watercourses to elicit their position vis-à-vis CE research and deployment. This paper focuses on the Intra- versus intergenerational equity and sustainability of the CE technology, the precautionary principle, the moral hazard principle linked to mitigation efforts and the binding principles of no-harm and compensatory damages. It simulates analog responses to CE research and deployment adoption based on the practice of international law in Africa.

KEYWORDS: Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR), Climate Change, Climate Engineering (CE), Global Warming, REDD+, Solar Radiation Management (SRM), UNCCD, UNCBD, UNFCCC, UN International Watercourses

Atmospheric consequences of disruption of the ocean thermocline by ocean pipe technologies

K. Lester (Carnegie Instituition for Science, Stanford, CA, United States of America), K. Ricke, (Carnegie Instituition for Science, Stanford, CA, United States of America), K. Caldeira (Carnegie Instituition for Science, Stanford, CA, United States of America)

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Atmospheric consequences of disruption of the ocean thermocline by ocean pipe technologies

K. Lester (1) ; K. Ricke, (1) ; K. Caldeira (1)
(1) Carnegie Instituition for Science, Stanford, CA, United States of America

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Technologies utilising vertical ocean pipes have been proposed as a means to avoid global warming, either by providing a source of clean energy, increasing ocean carbon uptake, or storing thermal energy in the deep ocean. However, increased vertical transport of water has the capacity to drastically alter the ocean thermocline. To help bound potential climate consequences of these activities, we perform a set of simulations involving idealised disruption of the ocean thermocline by greatly increasing vertical mixing in the upper ocean. We use an Earth System Model (ESM) to evaluate the likely thermal and hydrological response of the atmosphere to this scenario. In our model, increased vertical transport in the upper ocean decreases upward shortwave and longwave radiation at the top-of-the-atmosphere due primarily to loss of clouds and sea-ice over the ocean.  This extreme scenario causes an effective radiative forcing of ≈15.5-15.9W m-2, with simulations behaving on multi-decadal time scales as if they are approaching an equilibrium temperature ≈8.6-8.8°C higher than controls. Within a century, this produces higher global mean surface temperatures than would have occurred in the absence of increased vertical ocean transport. In our simulations, disruption of the thermocline strongly cools the lower atmosphere over the ocean, resulting in high pressure anomalies. The greater land-sea pressure contrast is found to increase water vapour transport from ocean to land in the lower atmosphere and therefore increase global mean precipitation minus evaporation (P-E) over land; however, many high latitude regions and some low latitude regions experience decreased P-E. Any real implementation of ocean pipe technologies would damage the thermal structure of the ocean to a lesser extent than simulated here; nevertheless, our simulations indicate the likely sign and character of unintended atmospheric consequences of such ocean technologies. Prolonged application of ocean pipe technologies, rather than avoiding global warming, could exacerbate long-term warming of the climate system.

Response of Indian Subcontinent to the Geoengineering of Climate: The effect of SRM on Cloud Area Fraction and Rainfall

P. Arora (IIT Delhi, New Delhi, India), S. K. Mishra (IIT Delhi, New Delhi, India)

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Response of Indian Subcontinent to the Geoengineering of Climate: The effect of SRM on Cloud Area Fraction and Rainfall

P. Arora (1) ; SK. Mishra (2)
(1) IIT Delhi, Civil Engineering, New Delhi, India; (2) IIT Delhi, Centre for atmospheric sciences, New Delhi, India

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The objective of this paper is to study the effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) on the climate over the Indian Subcontinent, particularly how it changes the cloud area fraction and total precipitation over the region. Cloud area fraction and precipitation are highly model sensitive parameters which depend greatly on other parameters like surface air temperature and evaporation. These parameters play a major role in governing small and large scale weather activities in any area and a small change in them can trigger repercussions on a much larger scale. As such it becomes extremely important to analyze closely the effects of SRM on our climate before implementing it in reality. The data for five important and interdependent variables: cloud area fraction, total precipitation, precipitable water, evaporation and surface air temperature was studied exhaustively for nine models namely BNU-ESM, CCSM4, CanESM, CAM5.1, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM and MPI-ESM-LR, for a period of 50 years and the graphical results for the changes in these parameters was plotted using NCAR Command Language (NCL). The results obtained from these plots were indicative of the fact that cloud area fraction and precipitation, particularly over the Indian Subcontinent, are indeed highly model sensitive parameters; where a small change in the solar radiation caused changes as high as 30% in these parameters.  With the given uncertainty in the simulated parameters, it becomes crucial to have more robust modeling before implementing any decision, particularly for a country like India where the economy is largely driven by monsoon dependent agriculture and even a small change in the climate can affect severely the livelihood of millions of people. Therefore any decision, big or small, must be pondered upon carefully, to analyze the risks and the benefits being derived from it, before implementing it on a local, regional or global scale. 

Climate Engineering Research Trends – Results from an Expert Survey

K. Beyerl (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V., Potsdam, Germany), T. Wiertz, (Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V., Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Climate Engineering Research Trends – Results from an Expert Survey

K. Beyerl (1) ; T. Wiertz, (1)
(1) Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V., Potsdam, Germany

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As international climate change mitigation efforts are progressing relatively slowly, climate engineering (CE) has been controversially discussed for several years now and often viewed with scepticism. In August 2014, the so far largest transdisciplinary conference on climate engineering CEC14 took place in Berlin, and assembled over 350 participants from 40 countries who discussed a multitude of questions associated with technical interventions in the climate system. More than one third of this expert group participated in a subsequent online survey about future research trends in CE. The presentation will summarize the outcomes of this survey and thereby give an overview of the current state and diversity of the CE debate, motivations to engage with the topic and expected future research trends. Some general results are summarized below. In the talk, the data will be presented in more detail and with regard to specific sample subgroups and technologies as each technological approach raises specific challenges.

1. Working backgrounds, motivations, hopes and concerns with regard to CE research. The vast majority of respondents named countries in Europe or North America to be their country of origin and current office location. Despite the global relevance of the topic and various attempts to increase geographic representation, scientific expertise and awareness remains very much centred in the Global North. Academic backgrounds of people working on CE cover various aspects of natural science, as well as social sciences and humanities. Social scientists seem to work more broadly on the concept of CE, whereas natural scientists focus more on specific technologies. Motivations to engage with CE are manifold, such as 1) concern about climate change and pessimism about mitigation activities, 2) a search for options to counter climate change, 3) concern about CE consequences, 4) scientific interest in the topic reaching from modelling and impact assessment to governance and policy implications, philosophical questions of decision making, to reach a robust scientific footing for decision making. Throughout the survey, participants highlighted concerns about various risks of CE technologies.

2. Expected trends in CE research. Despite the widely shared opinion that methods to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (CDR) would be safer and should be researched, many of the conference participants seem to expect that research will focus on solar radiation management (SRM) in the future although they see many risks associated with SRM-techniques. Technologies that should be researched most according to the participants were for CDR: (Bioenergy with) Carbon Capture and Storage, and Direct Air Capture; and for SRM: Stratospheric Aerosol Injections and Marine Cloud Brightening. CDR techniques are seen as currently not effective enough, too slow and too expensive. Asked for which aspects of research should get more attention, answers differed for CDR and SRM in the way that for CDR participants identified technical research and development and economics among the main aspects; for SRM, climate effects, governance and ethics where highlighted; environmental effects and impact assessment scored high for both approaches.

3. Opinions about Field Research and Governance. Whereas several participants were in favour of no field research at all, others expected field tests for CDR and/or SRM. However, the focus of research differed: For CDR, field tests were mainly suggested to test feasibility, efficiency, safety, impacts, solutions for carbon storage and recycling. For SRM, the main questions were related to atmospheric physics and chemistry, specifics of particles, engineering tests, delivery technology, impact assessment and critical factors. With regard to governance that should be in place before field testing, opinions differed from no governance and that existing governance is sufficient, to the need for an international convention or legal framework and a global body, as well as the application of national laws. Furthermore, environmental and social impact assessments (EAI and SIA) were suggested and the need for public participation in decision making and ensuring transparency was highlighted.

On a general note, most survey participants hope that CE won’t be necessary at all and emphasized that climate change mitigation should be heavily intensified.

Public perceptions of climate engineering and field test proposals in Japan

M. Sugiyama (The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan), S. Asayama (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Tsukuba, Japan), A. Ishii (Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan)

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Public perceptions of climate engineering and field test proposals in Japan

M. Sugiyama (1) ; S. Asayama (2) ; A. Ishii (3)
(1) The University of Tokyo, Policy Alternatives Research Institute, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan; (2) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, Tsukuba, Japan; (3) Tohoku University, Center for northeast asian studies, Sendai, Miyagi, Japan

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There is a growing call for research on climate engineering, the deliberate intervention in the Earth’s climate, particularly stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), one of the methods of so-called solar radiation management (SRM), given the presumed inadequacy of global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and a possibility of “climate emergency”. Such a call for research on SAI includes proposals of conducting small-scale outdoor experiments or field tests in the natural environment with controlled emissions of aerosols.

However, there are strong disagreements and controversies among scientists on whether and how such field tests should proceed, and importantly such debate is mainly based not on technical but social, political and ethical concerns. Advocates claim the urgent need for field tests due to concerns over “climate emergency” while critics worry about “moral hazard” caused by field tests and argue that once research was initiated, SAI would fall down a “slippery slope,” eventually leading to its deployment. These concerns are relevant to broader public deliberation, and should not be confined only to debate among experts.

In this poster, we report the results of a recent online survey with Japanese citizens (N = 3000), focusing mainly on SAI field tests. Our survey design was intended to elucidate the key social, political and ethical concerns of the public regarding SAI. The respondents read a short description of SAI and answered their opinions.

The survey results show a high rate of the “unsure” or “don’t know” (DK) responses ― about one-third of the respondents chose DK response to the questions regarding attitudes toward SAI. At least three reasons can be considered as sources of DK response: first, lack of knowledge and awareness of SAI, as nearly two-thirds answered “neither heard of nor know at all SAI”; second, little understanding of the provided information of SAI, since about two-fifths of the respondents answered “cannot understand so much” or “cannot understand at all”; and third, the omission of middle scale option such as “neither agree nor disagree” in our survey instrument, since it might have caused those who have ambivalent or ambiguous views on SAI to be difficult to answer, resulting in a DK response. Thus, our survey results can be deemed to show the public’s undecided opinions on SAI.

Nevertheless, the respondents demonstrated discernible attitudes toward SAI in some respects. First of all, a great majority of the the respondents clearly favor mitigation to SAI, and think that considering SAI before pursuing all efforts to reduce CO2 emissions is undesirable. In addition, the respondents exhibited (conditional) support of SAI research, but differentiated different modes of research. They demonstrated preference of indoor research activities such as computer simulations and lab work over outdoor field tests. The support for the deployment was limited, which is consistent with the findings of previous surveys. The respondents also showed a relatively serious concern over the risk of unpredictable side-effects of SAI and political consequences of research, i.e. the possibility of “slippery slope”, although a majority of them thought that the prospect of “moral hazard” is unlikely. Regarding the governance issues on field tests, the respondents strongly favor the public consultation before field tests, the open disclosure of the results including negative information, and the international regulation of field tests instead of scientists’ self-regulation. The respondents seem to endorse the importance and significance of ‘Oxford Principles’ of climate engineering research governance.

In our survey we controlled the information of SAI and split the sample into one with and without the “climate emergency” frame. Previous research suggests that framing of information provided to the respondents (especially, emergency framing) may influence, and therefore bias the public perception of SAI, though the results of our survey did not yield such framing effects on respondents’ attitudes toward SAI with any statistical significance.  We thus have reported all the results, collapsing the two groups into one.  

We believe our survey results can bring important and non-Western perspectives into the wider public debate on climate engineering.

Geoengineering, Preferred Climate States, and Climate Policy in the Anthropocene

J. Horton (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States of America)

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Geoengineering, Preferred Climate States, and Climate Policy in the Anthropocene

J. Horton (1)
(1) Harvard University, Kennedy School of Government, Cambridge, MA, United States of America

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Many social, ethical, political, environmental, and other objections to geoengineering have been raised since the taboo on public discussion was broken a decade ago.  One of the key criticisms, though often unstated, is focused on the fact that geoengineering would necessarily entail making conscious, deliberate decisions about desired climate states.  These states might be implicit or explicit, and might be defined in terms of temperature, radiative forcing, rate of change, atmospheric concentration, or some other metric, but choosing to intervene in the climate system is inextricably linked to choosing what the climate ought to be.  This feature of geoengineering has been criticized on the grounds that it is arrogant, hubristic, unnatural, corrupt, and/or unwise.  There may be merit in such criticisms, yet this line of argument overlooks the reality that, in the Anthropocene epoch, any climate policy is unavoidably premised on a preferred climate state.  Mitigation rests inherently on targets, whether general (climate stability, preindustrial, Holocene) or specific (°C, ppm, GtC).  From a philosophical point of view, any such target is ultimately arbitrary, in the sense that nature does not endorse one goal over another.  The same is true of adaptation.  Every potential climate state entails some combination of winners and losers (human and non-human), and the ethical dilemmas this presents cannot be avoided simply by excluding geoengineering as a climate policy option.  The mere fact of making decisions about preferred climate states is an insufficient and unsound basis for objecting to geoengineering, and only serves to obscure the tough choices about future climate that must be made whether or not geoengineering is on the policy agenda.

Simulating the potential impacts of reforestation on extreme rainfall over West Africa in future

R. C. Odoulami (University of Cape Town (UCT), Cape Town, South Africa), A. Babatunde (University of Cape Town (UCT), Cape Town, South Africa), A. E. Ajayi (Federal University of Technology Akure (FUTA), Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

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Simulating the potential impacts of reforestation on extreme rainfall over West Africa in future

RC. Odoulami (1) ; A. Babatunde (1) ; AE. Ajayi (2)
(1) University of Cape Town (UCT), Climate System Analysis Group (CSAG) - Dept. of Environmental and Geographical Science (EGS), Cape Town, South Africa; (2) Federal University of Technology Akure (FUTA), Department of agricultural engineering, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

This study investigates the impacts of reforestation on characteristics of extreme rainfall over West Africa, with a focus on the widespread extreme rainfall events (WEREs) in Savannah, under the RCP 4.5 future climate scenario. For the study, two regional climate models (RCMs: RegCM4 and WRF version 3.5.1), forced with global climate models simulations (HadGEM2 and ECHAM6 respectively), were applied to reproduce the present-day climate (PRS), and to project the future climate (2031-2064) with and without large-scale reforestation in Savannah (FUT and REF, respectively). To validate models, we compare the PRS simulations with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) observation datasets. To examine the impacts of reforestation on future extreme rainfall events, we compare the FUT and REF simulations. The results show that, the two RCMs give credible simulations of extreme rainfall threshold (95th percentile of daily rainfall in the past climate) over West Africa. However, RegCM4 reports lower values over the Sahel and the Western Savannah, and both models simulate more WEREs than observation (TRMM) over Savannah. Both model project an increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events over the Guinean coast and a decrease over the Savannah and Sahel in the future. However, they show that reforestation would increase the frequency of extreme events over the Savannah, but lowers it over the Guinean coast. Results from this study may guide decision makers on climate change mitigation and adaption options in West Africa.

Geoengineering: Existing State Specific Laws and impacts upon Human Health, the Eco-system & Economics

A. M. Hunter (Hunter Consulting, Phoenix, Arizona, United States of America)

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Geoengineering: Existing State Specific Laws and impacts upon Human Health, the Eco-system & Economics

AM. Hunter (1)
(1) Hunter Consulting, Legal, Phoenix, Arizona, United States of America

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An overview, examples of and analysis thereto of currently in effect state statutes on air pollution and how any proposed geoengineering, solar radiation management and/or climate intervention plans or programs would have a legal impact and effect upon associated risks such as human health, the Eco-system and state economies.

Localizing climate policy responses: Explaining local government responses to climate impacts in the United States

D. Kauneckis (Ohio University, Athens, OH, United States of America)

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Localizing climate policy responses: Explaining local government responses to climate impacts in the United States

D. Kauneckis (1)
(1) Ohio University, Voinovich School for Leadership and Public Affairs, Athens, OH, United States of America

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In the context of American public policy, local and state governments have taken the lead in innovating and implementing climate change policies.  This has occurred both in terms of mitigation and adaption efforts.  This presentation reports results from a study of the actions of local governments in response to climate change in the United States.  The study relies on a unique dataset of 1,277 public organizations at the city, county and sub-state levels engaged in climate change policymaking and implementation.  The presentation focuses on climate adaptation efforts - defined for the purpose of this work as policy action taken that addresses a risk directly associated with climate impacts.  The results examine the factors contributing to the likelihood that a local government organization has actively expended resources toward reducing climate vulnerability.  It explores how organizations collaborate and engage in collective action solutions that facilitate policy learning and innovative strategies to address climate risks. The variables examined include the type of policy action, exposure to real and perceived climate risks, levels of policy innovation associated with organizational collaborations, and the outcomes of these efforts. Additionally, it looks at the role of both informal and formal policy networks, sources of innovation, and the prevalence of horizontal and vertical collaboration. Findings contribute to the theoretical literature on institutional collective action, policy innovation and learning, and local public economies.  The results present important lessons for local governments managing the challenges of climate change and a decentralized view of how climate policy can progress at the local level in spite of inaction at the national and international levels.    

Rethinking Climate Change Research in Zimbabwe

S. Bhatasara (University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe)

Abstract details
Rethinking Climate Change Research in Zimbabwe

S. Bhatasara (1)
(1) University of Zimbabwe, Sociology, Harare, Zimbabwe

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      Rethinking Climate Change Research in Zimbabwe

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing challenges confronting Zimbabwe. As such, it has received considerable attention from a wide array of scholars. Certainly, very significant contributions have come from scholars who have deployed various models to establish trends in climate change as well as assess and predict its impacts particularly on agriculture. Paradoxically, even though climate change knowledge in the country continues to grow, questions on how climate change is framed, how impacts are derived using various quantitative methods and models and, even the language used in such studies have not been adequately analysed. These facets are critical particularly because how climate change is framed has important implications for adaptation in the country.

 

Following the above, this paper subjects various studies on climate change in  Zimbabwe to rigorous critical analysis with the intention to demonstrate how climate change and its impacts have been framed and the utility and, pitfalls of such. The important question is, what  and whose frames are being activated and hence strengthened and, what are the implications for adaptation? The paper argues that climate, climate knowledge and climate change need to be unpacked and reframed by deploying new and bold ontological and epistemological positions. This involves documenting and analyzing local narratives of climate change, for instance of local farmers, living on the frontiers of such changes. This also suggests that interpretive methods fundamentally come to the fore, even so without laying claim to principled epistemological privilege.

Although this paper centers on climate change scholarship from a developing country, it draws insights from a number of scholars working in other contexts. For instance, Brace and Geoghegan (2010), brought together the themes on landscape, temporality and lay knowledge to propose new ways of understanding climate change and its impacts. Pettinger, (2007) alludes to the social construction of climate change and how power is used to impose a hegemonic discourse on climate change. Miller et. al., (2008) argue for epistemological pluralism when it comes to understanding complex systems that embrace the human and non-human worlds and climate change is one such system. Hoffman (2011) points out that climate change is not yet  a ‘social consensus’, drawing attention to the various contestations and divergences surrounding the framing of climate change

The political internalization process of climate issues in Brazil and China (1992-2012)

F. Barbi (University of Campinas, Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil), L. D. C. Ferreira, (University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil)

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The political internalization process of climate issues in Brazil and China (1992-2012)

F. Barbi (1) ; LDC. Ferreira, (2)
(1) University of Campinas, Center for Environmental Studies and Research, Campinas, Sao Paulo, Brazil; (2) University of Campinas, Center for environmental studies and research, Campinas, Brazil

Abstract content

In terms of climate change responses, it is argued that governments are important actors that play a key role in the development of norms, institutions and appropriate modes of governance to address these changes at different levels and scales. This paper analyzes the internalization process of the climate issue at the government level in Brazil and China. These two countries have been noted for their importance in the international arena and, above all, the importance of environmental issues at the core of their political processes. In terms of methodology, this analysis is based on three main points: i) Trajectory of greenhouse gases emissions in Brazil and China, in the period of 1992-2012; ii) Political and institutional structures mobilized to the climate issue, focusing on mitigation; iii) Political responses related to climate change, through a historical reconstruction of policies, plans, major programs and projects developed and implemented related to climate change mitigation. The starting point for this analysis is the year of 1992, more specifically the consequences of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, resulting from the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, which marks the beginning of the involvement of both Brazil and China in international discussions and negotiations on climate change. The results of our analysis show that, in Brazil, emissions have fallen since 2008 and there has been a change in the profile of greenhouse gases emissions in the country. Land-use change and forestry sector has no longer been the most responsible for emissions since 2010. However, all other sectors have increased their emissions over the analyzed period. In the case of China, even with mitigation efforts undertaken, emissions have increased every year. However, the emission growth level has declined reflecting the country's efforts in the installation of low carbon power generation and improvements in energy intensity. In Brazil, there are robust and consolidated political and institutional structures to address the climate issue, involving other segments of society such as the private sector, civil society and research institutions, among others. Regarding political and scientific framework, there was a significant increase in the production and systematization of studies and reports, which can assist the design and implementation of policies related to the problem, and reduce the uncertainties related to climate change. China has also made some progress in this direction. The results show that, in Brazil, the climate issue internalization process is characterized by three phases: the first, marked by the establishment of political-institutional and scientific structures engaged with the issue. The second, stands out for greater understanding of this issue in the country. It is marked by the development of a political and scientific agenda around the theme and planning actions in the country. The construction of this agenda was fundamental in laying the foundations of the national policy on climate change. Finally, the third phase is marked by the development of climate policies and by strengthening the scientific agenda around the theme. The national policy agenda is focused on the implementation of sectoral plans, to meet the voluntary mitigation targets established by the National Climate Change Policy. In the Chinese case, the internalization process of the climate issue has two phases: the first, has more focus on combating air pollution, whereas the climate issue stands as secondary focus of action and the second, more proactive regarding concrete commitments on climate change, with the establishment of the National Climate Change Program and the National Leadership Panel on Climate Change. Both Brazil and China still have challenges to be faced in relation to the set of problems that make up the environmental issue in a world characterized by global climate change. Environmental and climate concerns have difficulties to become political priorities in both countries. In any case, policy measures aimed at climate issue in these countries may lead to the reconfiguration of international negotiations about it.

Mr

A. W. Awa (IMPACT CREATORS/ COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE GROUP, BAMENDA, Cameroon)

Abstract details
Mr

AW. Awa (1)
(1) IMPACT CREATORS/ COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT ALLIANCE GROUP, BAMENDA, Cameroon

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PAPER TITLE: FOREST MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS WITHIN RURAL COMMUNITIES OF THE NORTH WEST REGION OF CAMEROON, STRONG STRATEGIC APPROACHES FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA.

 

 

In a bid to tackle some of the questions raised by climate change, this paper will discuss Sustainable Forest Management Systems within Rural Communities of the North West Region of Cameroon, strong strategic approaches for climate change in sub-saharan Africa.

 

Human actions on forest, such as uncontrollable harvesting of medicinal plants, felling of trees, farming, bush fires and local bee farming practices like generating smoke to drive away bees from a hive by burning fresh leaves of plants, provide negative effects on climate. This paper presents an analysis of the scientific evidence, indicating that negative influence on forest is affecting the climate in Cameroon. Sea levels are rising; rainfall has decreased by 11%, early rains, increased temperatures and flooding. The paper identifies strategic approaches that are practiced in tackling forest management and climate change in Cameroon. Examples are: tree planting, renewable energy, solar powers, water powers, etc. It describes also, generated land use systems, forests conservation methods and farming techniques, which influence climate change and the health of forest positively.

 

The concept of indigenous ecosystem and forest management systems used in this paper refers to a series of practices based on agreed rules, carried out by the local people, aiming at the sustained availability of products and services from trees, crops and forest through Sustainable Development for climate change. Local populations surrounding these forests understand the education of community forestry, taking an active leading role in preserving and protecting the forests, in order to ensure long term benefits and stop the ill effects of climate change in the society.

 

The paper concludes that this project is building these capacities in collaboration with the various stakeholders in the localities for a healthy conservation of forest and monitoring of changes in the climatic conditions of the areas. Forest management and monitoring plans are carried out using participatory methods and are designed to meet the needs of the communities and their families, while at the same time maintaining Sustainable Biodiversity and Climate change functions.

Mainstreaming climate adaptation-mitigation measures at local level: rifling common institutional orbit in Nepal

D. Bishwokarma (ForestAction Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal)

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Mainstreaming climate adaptation-mitigation measures at local level: rifling common institutional orbit in Nepal

D. Bishwokarma (1)
(1) ForestAction Nepal, Research, Kathmandu, Nepal

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Integration of climate mitigation and adaptation has now been becoming more powerful concern in climate change policy architecture to achieve synergetic outcomes. It has become more relevant especially in least developed countries (LDCs) including Nepal considering unavoidable risk of climate change but their high vulnerability. Since recent past, Nepal has been planning and implementing both adaptation and mitigation projects. Despite sectoral seclusion on planning and implementation, both adaptation and mitigation projects have chosen resourceful and independent local forestry institutions mostly community forest users groups (CFUGs) as an entry point to dispense project input at the grass root level. This article scrutinizes the potentiality of local forestry institutions to contribute on and integrate climate adaptation and mitigation. It further reconnoiters implications of and lessons to achieve synchronized outcome from adaptation and mitigation measures from existing institutional arrangements in Nepal.

This paper is the outcome of two comparative case studies of CFUGs in Dolakha and Lamjung districts where mitigation and adaptation measures have been implementing through piloting the reducing emissions from deforestation and forests degradation (REDD+) and preparing community adaptation plan (CAPs) respectively, four focus group discussions in the case study sites, four key informant interviews, five policy level expert interviews, existing climate change policy documents review, and literature review.

 The research found that CFUGs have been contributing on both mitigation and adaptation through their services since before any external funds. Nonetheless, both quantity and quality of services have increased after implementing climate mitigation and adaptation projects through both government and non-governmental agencies. CFUGs have been chosen as an institutional unit to implement different mitigation measures including sustainable forests management, afforestation, and installation of smokeless stoves. The same institution has been preferred to implement adaptation measures including conservation of water holes, riverbed conservation and management, and installation of early warning systems. The research further found the overlapping of activities such as installation of smokeless stove and afforestation to achieve both mitigation and adaptation objectives. CFUGs even have funded to implement both mitigation and adaptation measures. It signifies the functional aptitude of CFUGs to integrate mitigation and adaption in practice. However, sectoral divide exists specially at the national level since adaptation and mitigation projects are being designed and implemented separately by two different sectoral ministries. We found that the operative mismatch and ghettoized dealing of adaptation and mitigation at the community and central level mechanism has been encumbering the functional contribution of CFUGs. The contradictions between climate change policies have further been stimulating for the sectoral and segregated planning and implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures. Such contradictions have further affecting on mutual coordination at the policy level. Nepal is eluding an opportunity to utilize existing and voluntarily emerging forestry institution to integrate adaptation and mitigation due to such differential interferences at the central level. This paper suggests that Nepal has a unique opportunity to be a role model of and contribute to ongoing globate debate to integrate climate mitigation and adaptation in LDCs by employing collaborative planning and implementation process at the central level and by acknowledging the potential contribution of CFUGs at the local level. However, the existing mismatches and segregated planning and implementation approach has to be addressed at the policy level. Synergetic adjustments on existing climate policies would be one primary option to create sectoral collaborative milieu for integration of mitigation and adaptation. The central level policy institution such as national planning commission having directive authority to sectoral ministries should take lead role for overall designing and planning mitigation and adaptation projects to ensure bottom-up mainstreaming, overcome mismatch at policy level, and acknowledge functional potentiality of CFUGs at local level.

Analysis of low carbon policies in the building sector

H. Beijia (environmental science, shanghai, China)

Abstract details
Analysis of low carbon policies in the building sector

H. Beijia (1)
(1) environmental science, shanghai, China

Abstract content

Building sector accounts for a large percentage of the GHG emission. It is critical to raise appropriate low carbon policies both in developing and developed countries in the building sector. This study focuses on low carbon policies in building sector by conducting a comparison study between Japan and China so that different policy implications can be recognized for countries in different development stages. Two research questions are discussed, including how effective current low carbon policies  are and what obstacles exist. Both stakeholder interviews and literature reviews based on Scopus database were undertaken.

     In order to address these two issues, related policies are categorized into four groups: control and regulatory instruments; economic/market-based instruments; fiscal instruments; information and voluntary actions. Policy effect analysis identifies that low carbon policies in the building sector have promoted energy saving in both Japan and China. Especially, the innovative Cap and Trade Program in Japan has greatly enhanced the GHG emission reduction. Obstacles comparison reveals that Japan and China shared many obstacles including high transaction costs and lack of applicable methodology. But certain differences also exist. For instance, the unstable political condition and the unexpected Fukushima accidents impede the Japanese government to initiate more innovative energy policies in Japan, while China is suffering from obstacles such as inefficient enforcement, and immature financial regulation system.

    Based on the previous findings, common suggestions for overcoming these obstacles of low carbon policies in Japan and China are presented, such as the accurate methods of baseline identification and emission accountings, innovative incentives, and more capacity building activities. Finally more specific suggestions for both Japan and China are also added by considering their own situations so that both countries can further improve their BES policies.

Tracking leading indicators to understand decarbonization trends and impacts of climate policies

C. Cronin (ClimateWorks Foundation, San Francisco, CA, United States of America), S. Menon (ClimateWorks Foundation, San Francisco, CA, United States of America), S. Monteith (ClimateWorks Foundation, San Francisco, CA, United States of America)

Abstract details
Tracking leading indicators to understand decarbonization trends and impacts of climate policies

C. Cronin (1) ; S. Menon (1) ; S. Monteith (1)
(1) ClimateWorks Foundation, Advisory & Research, San Francisco, CA, United States of America

Abstract content

Over the last year, ClimateWorks Foundation with other collaborators created the Carbon Transparency Initiative (CTI) tool with the objective to provide a transparent, granular, and consistent reference scenario for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across regions and sectors based upon current policies, decarbonization trends, and expected investments. The CTI tool is an open-source, indicator-led methodology based upon fundamental analysis of a small number of underlying driver metrics that shape long-term emissions. It allows for comparing current regional emissions trajectories to other scenarios and government targets. It can also be used to track policy developments across nations at the sector level, and to some extent the ambition level of climate policies in different regions. Overall, it serves as a tool to evaluate the extent, pace, and efficiency of decarbonization. This presentation will review the main findings of the CTI for five focus regions, and compare scenario projections and decarbonization trends with other major modeling and tracking efforts and will evaluate the impact of specific climate policies on GHG emission reductions.

 

The CTI tool, as designed, provides transparency of emissions in China, the EU-28, India, Mexico, and the US, for which the methodology distinguishes between 11 sectors: power, transportation, oil and gas, buildings, steel, cement, chemicals, ‘other industries’, agriculture, forestry, and waste. The tool presents analysis on leading indicator statistics for each sector, and uses these metrics to both determine future emissions trajectories and benchmark current decarbonization trends. Approximately 10 additional countries are being added in 2015 in partnership with the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) group, though with less detail. All combined, the CTI will be able to evaluate decarbonization trends and impacts of climate policies in countries that account for 75% of global emissions. 

 

Many of the highest-emitting countries are undergoing rapid changes. When extrapolating historic GHG numbers for these countries, forecasts and scenarios can fundamentally underestimate saturation and maturity effects, and cannot thoroughly capture the impacts of current and expected climate policies. CTI’s methodology is uniquely designed to forecast emissions trends out to 2030, taking into account saturation points, macro and technology shifts in the economy, and climate policy implementation, and conducts fundamental analysis on a small number of key drivers of global emissions. The tool relies upon a number of trusted sources, including the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), Bloomberg National Energy Finance (BNEF), International Energy Agency (IEA), and others. In addition, by providing a high level of granular visibility into its components and indicators, with all of its outputs broken by region, sector and covering the time period between 2010 to 2030, the CTI tool is designed for annual tracking of key driver metrics for the next few years that help understand and contextualize trends in decarbonization and implementation of climate policies.

“Climate change adaptation strategies and disaster risk management in Bangladesh”

A. M. H. Akhand (Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, Govt of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
“Climate change adaptation strategies and disaster risk management in Bangladesh”

AMH. Akhand (1)
(1) Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission, Govt of Bangladesh, Joint secretary, gas and regulations, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Bangladesh is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world and innocent victim, experiencing changing weather patterns of irregular temperature, rainfall and winter season-that affecting people's lifestyle. Bangladesh is already affected by climate change impact, increasing temperature of 2° C and sea level rises of 7.5 cm causing 29% higher returns of disasters (i.e. flood with permanent phenomena which is major causes of crop devastation almost every year, cyclone, storm surges, heat and cold waves, drought). Bangladesh is now suffering in water salinity, water logging, soil salinity, human health diseases, shortage of fresh drinking water and food security.

 

The Global Climate Risk Index 2014 covering the period 1990-2013 finds dangerous climate change affects on Bangladesh, estimates that on an average 8,241 people died each year, while the cost of damage is around US $ 1.2 billion per year and loss of GDP is 1.81%. Bangladesh is projected to face 2.0% loss of annual GDP by 2050 and more than 9% of GDP by 2100 and would experience a net increase in poverty of approximately 15% by 2030 due to climate change impacts. After the 1988 flood and 1991 cyclone, Bangladesh Government has given emphasis using satellite data to face climate change impacts. Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization connect the international satellite stations. Satellite images help for better prediction, and tracking of cyclone and floods. There are also 50 thousand coastal cyclone preparedness program and 20 thousand urban volunteers are engaged in front-line rescue and awareness activities with women participation for disaster mitigation. Built coastal embankments.

 

Bangladesh has made remarkable efforts in ‘strategies and plans’ to streamline regulatory and institutional settings as a pathway for adapting climate change impacts following the existing policies and acts. Bangladesh is the first example country for taking various initiatives for the adaptation. The adaptation is the key for survival, initiatives taken in different sectors of the government. One of the six pillars in the adaptation Strategy and Plan is Low Carbon development’ that puts emphasis on energy efficiency, energy conservation and utilization of renewable energy as potential mitigation options (Bangladesh is less than 0.3 ton GHG emission per year). To adapt the climate impacts, Bangladesh developed Flood Action Plan (1988), the National Water Management Plan (2004), the Standing Orders on Disasters (2010), the ‘National Adaptation Program of Action’ (2005, revised in 2009) and the ‘Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan’ (2009) to take necessary preparedness.

 

The Strategy and Plan is to strengthen adaptive capacity of the local communities and to foster innovation in climate change related technologies which would reduce poverty, generate employment, ensure security of food, water, health, energy and socio-economic well being of all citizens of the country. Bangladesh has prepared a Road map towards formulating a comprehensive NAP with a view to reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity and resilience, flood and cyclone shelters.

 

Bangladesh Meteorological Department developed better early warning system for cyclone and other hazards using satellite data. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre is engaged to alert the vulnerable people about flood risk. Introduced climate tolerance (saline, drought, flood, rain-adapted) crop production. Bangladesh has established two innovative funds: Climate Change Trust Fund from the Government’s own budget with an initial capital of US$ 45 million, and Bangladesh Climate Change Resilient Fund (initial fund US$188 million) with the support of development partners. Recent disaster casualties and damages shows the successful reduction compare to previous events. Satellite images are most useful as first responses to disasters and post-disaster assessment. Satellite phones/mobiles/tv channels are useful for emergency warnings. The satellite technology creates new hope and inspirations for human lives.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Climate Policy Response from State and Local Governments in the United States: Comparative Analysis of California, Texas, New York, and Florida

S. Garren (Hofstra University, Hempstead, New York, United States of America)

Abstract details
Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Climate Policy Response from State and Local Governments in the United States: Comparative Analysis of California, Texas, New York, and Florida

S. Garren (1)
(1) Hofstra University, Geology, Environment, and Sustainability, Hempstead, New York, United States of America

Abstract content

  The purpose of the session is to assess the current state of climate policy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends in the four most populated states in the United States (i.e., California, Texas, New York, and Florida). Together these states comprise one-third of the total United States population. Each state faces different challenges in addressing climate change and each has historically different approaches to climate policy.  The session will be organized by the three research questions that guided the research: 1) What has been the policy response to the threat of climate change from each of the four states and its local governments; 2) What were the GHG emission trends from 2000 to 2010 in the four states and its local governments?; and, 3) What were the drivers of change of greenhouse gas emissions? Research was conducted to systematically catalogue climate policy within each state and specific actions taken at the local government level.  Actions taken at the local government level included participation in one or more of eight climate networks and completion of a GHG inventory and/or climate action plan.  A comprehensive GHG inventory was completed for each state (2000 through 2010) and for selected local governments (2000 and 2010).  GHG emissions were summarized for total GHG emissions, per capita GHG emissions, and by sector (i.e., energy, transportation, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, carbon sequestration, and for miscellaneous other categories).  Data availability at the state level is robust; however, readily-available data for all local governments continues to be problematic. The research also provides recommendations on data collection improvements at the local government level to better determine the efficacy of local government policies and to make comparisons among local governments. Policymakers need accurate data and a framework by which to measure progress towards reduction targets and mitigation strategies aimed at reducing GHG emissions.

Towards Adaptation : Advanced scientific knowledge to better prepare for climate change

V. Bourduas Crouhen (Ouranos, Montréal, Canada), R. Siron (Ouranos, Montréal, Canada), L. Leclerc (Ouranos, Montréal, Canada)

Abstract details
Towards Adaptation : Advanced scientific knowledge to better prepare for climate change

V. Bourduas Crouhen (1) ; R. Siron (2) ; L. Leclerc (2)
(1) Ouranos, Vulnerabilities, Impacts and Adaptation, Montréal, Canada; (2) Ouranos, Project coordinator, Montréal, Canada

Abstract content

To prepare for and cope with a changing climate, the Québec government created, in 2002, a research consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change named Ouranos. The organization publishes, approximately every 5 years, a state of knowledge review on impacts resulting from climate change for Québec. The latest edition, "Towards adaptation: synthesis of knowledge on climate change in Québec" is the most thorough and up-to-date portrayal of what can be expected in the upcoming decades in the province. The synthesis is divided into three major chapters including climatic analyses and scenarios of change; vulnerabilities and impacts; and implementation of adaptation. This document helps answer questions such as "What are the effects for Québec and what options exist to cope with the expected changes?" Elaborated through a collaborative process, it involved over 80 authors and advisers and covered an immense territory (over three times the area covered by France), exposing the reality of over 17 degrees of latitude and more than 22 degrees of longitude. Since this research covers a broad area of climate types and geographic regions, multiple results from this study could be applicable or transferable in other provinces of the country and even outside Canada.

The presentation submitted for this conference will explore a few highlights from this study including the following.

Since the 1950s, the average annual temperature in Québec increased by 1 to 3°C, depending on the region. It is anticipated that by mid-century the temperature could continue to rise by 2 to 4°C and, by the end of the century, by up to 4 to 7°C in the south and 5 to 10°C in the north. In addition, extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent and/or more intense with a warming climate. A sea level rise of 30 to 75 cm in the Gulf of St. Lawrence is also considered a major threat.

Some of these climate changes could generate business opportunities while others could generate significate risks for several sectors. For example, heat waves, aggravated by the urban heat island effect, will affect public health and could increase the cases of mortality and morbidity. Other effects, such as the lengthening of the pollen season and the intensification of atmospheric pollution caused by forest fires, could aggravate respiratory and cardiovascular problems. Likewise, the decrease in ice cover as well as the increase in precipitation could result in major impacts, including erosion of the coastline and flooding. Ecosystems and biodiversity could also be deeply disturbed by the arrival and expansion of harmful invasive species. Impacts from global changes are already noted on the life cycles and distribution of trees, plants, migratory birds, salmonids and the iconic migratory caribou. Water management will be a worldwide issue in a changing climate.  Conflicts of use associated with issues of quality and availability of water are likely to increase and could have negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems and fish habitat, production of potable water in municipalities and agriculture needs among others.

To reduce the vulnerabilities and diminish the costs and magnitude of the expected risks, it is critical to take all necessary measures to adapt. Adaptation measures not only need to help people adapt, but they must be chosen carefully so that they can facilitate sustainable development and more importantly not increase greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve great adaptation measures, all stakeholders within a given system need to be included in the process. This way the multidisciplinary and sometimes multicultural teams can identify issues and search for solutions together taking into account all vulnerabilities on a territory. It is therefore easier for them to implement these adaptation measures when they are directly involved in the identification process.

Québec possesses tools and expertise that could be put to use to reduce vulnerabilities, while leveraging possible opportunities arising from global warming. Revising laws and regulations, building and maintaining infrastructure according to improved design criteria and practices as well as early warning systems to reduce impacts on human health constitute tangible examples of adaptation options already implemented. The question now is not whether we need to adapt but rather how we can optimize the way we adapt to climate change.

Agricultural biodiversity in climate change adaptation planning: An analysis of the National Adaptation Programmes of Action

A. Bedmar Villanueva (Bioversity International, Roma, Italy), M. Halewood (Bioversity International, Roma, Italy), N. I. López (Bioversity International, Roma, Italy)

Abstract details
Agricultural biodiversity in climate change adaptation planning: An analysis of the National Adaptation Programmes of Action

A. Bedmar Villanueva (1) ; M. Halewood (1) ; NI. López (1)
(1) Bioversity International, Roma, Italy

Abstract content

To guide climate adaptation policies and investments, the majority of least developed countries (LDCs) have developed National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). This study analyzes the extent to which agricultural biological diversity is included as part of national adaptation planning in the 50 NAPAs developed by LDCs to date. Lessons learned from the NAPA development process are potentially valuable to countries that will be developing NAPs in the years to come. Agricultural biodiversity (at genetic, interspecific and ecosystem levels) can contribute to the resilience of the agricultural systems faced with increasing climatic variability, thereby reducing farmers’ vulnerability. The paper presents a framework for analysis existing literature concerning climate change and adaptive capacity, agroecosystems’ vulnerability and resilience and the use of biological/genetic diversity in agricultural production, plant breeding, research and development. The study identifies 48 activities included in the NAPAs that do (or at least could) increase biodiversity in agricultural production systems and/or in upstream research and development chains as part of strategies to adapt to climate change. These activities were clustered, first, by sectors (crops/forages, livestock, fisheries, forestry, agroforestry and natural resources) and then by biodiversity levels (genetic/intra-species, species and ecosystems). The analysis highlights that the exploitation and increase of agrobiodiversity is included in many of the NAPAs: 31% of all of the priority project proposals based on the NAPAs include some combination of the 48 agrobiodiversity-related activities. However, approaches taken to including agrobioversity varies considerably across the 50 NAPAs: 39% of the identified agrobiodiversity related activities are concentrated in 11 NAPAs; 20 NAPAs present the highest levels of inclusion of agrobiodiversity related activities; whereas 10 NAPAs were found to contain only between zero and 2 of the identified agrobiodiversity related activities. Eight of the identified 48 agrobiodiversity related activities accounted for the 56% of all the relevant activities mentioned overall, suggesting that relatively low range of actions were identified among the priority project proposals. The highest concentration of activities was found in the combined sector of crops/forages and at the ecosystem level; and the lowest in the fisheries sector and at the species and ecosystem levels. Only a small number of the NAPAs include a generally consistent spread of activities across the 3 levels of diversity. Interestingly, all 48 agrobiodiversity-related activities related to research, development, and production systems, and not to promotion of demand or consumption. The study concludes that a more comprehensive and organized approach to including agrobiodiversity in national adaptation planning will be important in future NAPA and NAP development. National planning teams will require capacity strengthening and tools to help them consider options and develop practical, scalable plans (there are few clearly established precedents/models for scaling up of agricultural biological diversification strategies at the national level). While it is beyond the principle scope of our analysis, the paper reflects on some of the factors that have contributed to the variable degrees to which agrobioversity has been included in some countries’ NAPAs, including the influence of strong plant genetic resources for food and agriculture (PGRFA) national programs, high-profile agrobiodiversity projects, pre-existing national policies that underscore the importance of agrobiodiversity, etc. On the other hand, the paper notes that 11 countries that included highest levels of reliance on agrobiodiversity are spread across 3 continents and have very different agro-ecologies and climate-related farmer vulnerabilities.

Economics of Global Climate Policies of Adaptation and Mitigation:A Review

M. H. B. Syed (Jahangirnagar University, Dhaka, Bangladesh)

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Economics of Global Climate Policies of Adaptation and Mitigation:A Review

MHB. Syed (1)
(1) Jahangirnagar University, Economics, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Climate change is uncertain all over the World. But its impact is visible everywhere.From the Arctic Ocean to the Tropics,climate is changing over the last several Decades. Greenhouse gas is the major cause of the Global climate challenges before the Mankind.It has been found that fossil fuel CO² is responsible for 78% of the total GHG gas emissions rise between 1970 and 2010.The concern about global warming was first raised in the UN Conference on Environment and Development(UNCED),which is also known as Earth Summit,held in Rio-De-Jenerio in 1992.Since then concerted work on climate challenges has been going on under United Nations initiatives.Conference of the Parties(COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pledged that future Global warming should be restricted to below 2°C(3.6°F) in relation to the Pre-industrial level.This may be re-phased with a target of restricting global warming to below 1.5°C in relation to the pre-industrial level.Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases,a group of gases  are responsible for golobal warming.All the Members of the United Nations are the Members of Conference of the Parties(COP).Conference of the Parties(COP) is being held at different locations of the World since 1995.The 21st COP will be held in Paris in December,2015.Now,the question is, how to adapt to the climate change and mitigate the severity of the climate change.This adaptation and mitigation policies will differ from one Country to another.However, the combined effect of the global warming has to be contained by the end of 2100 A.D.According to some others,it should be contained by 2070 A.D.Some adaptation policies are characterized as a private good as the benefit goes directly to the individuals,regions or countries that implement them.Mitigation Policies consist of switching to low-carbon energy sources for example renewable and low-carbon energy and to remove greater amounts of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere by enlarging forests and other "sinks".Improving insulation of the buildings may increase energy efficiency.Climate Engineering is another method of mitigation.With limitations, Economics provides mechanism for examining the merits or demerits of taking or not taking action on climate change mitigation or adaptation in obtaining competing societal goals.The Stern Review on the 'Economics of Climate Change' is a report by the Economist Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics and the University of Leeds.The report indicates the effect of Global warming on the World economy.The Stern Review suggested fixing the accumulation of Greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere at a maximum of 550 CO²e by 2050.According to the Review this amounts to cutting Greenhouse gas emissions to three quarters of 2007 levels.The costs of these cuts would be in between the range of -1 to +3.50% of World GDP(GWP) with an average estimate of approximately 1%.The revised figure by Stern is 2% of GWP.To make a comparison in 2010, the World Product(GWP) at purchasing power parity(PPP) was estimated at $74.5 trillion.Therefore, 2% of the amount is $ 1.5 trillion.The Review includes prescriptions consisting of environmental taxes to minimize  the economic and social disruptions.The Stern Review's major concluding remark is that benefits of strong early action on climate change outweigh the costs of not acting.The Review points out the impacts of climate change on water, food,health and the environment.The Review says that without action the total costs of climate change will be equivalent to a loss of at least 5% GWP,each year now and forever.

Multilevel Governance and Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Responses in Latin American Cities

P. Romero Lankao (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America)

Abstract details
Multilevel Governance and Institutional Capacity for Climate Change Responses in Latin American Cities

P. Romero Lankao (1)
(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States of America

Abstract content

Urban populations, economic activities and infrastructure are responsible for between 71 and 75% of global GHG emissions. However, often only a small fraction of emissions produced within a city is under the direct control of local governments. While cities are vulnerable to a suite of negative impacts that climate change is projected to aggravate, many adaptation options are also out of local reach. In these cases, other jurisdictions and actors, such as national governments or the private sector, may have control over regulations, investments and programs that drive and manage emissions and risk. Hence, in order to mitigate GHG emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change a range of actors, across sectors and levels of government, will need to create multilevel and multisectoral coalitions for effective urban climate governance. Although mitigation and adaptation goals are, often of necessity, pursued in tandem by local governments, and urban climate policies are the product of multiscale influences, the relationship between multilevel governance and urban institutional capacity for mitigation and adaptation policies has only recently received attention, and studies focused on cities from Latin American countries are often missing altogether. We present work conducted through the ADAPTE project to explore some of the key factors or drivers shaping the institutional capacity to develop and implement mitigation and adaptation policies in the Latin American cities of Buenos Aires, Argentina, Mexico City, Mexico and Santiago, Chile. These cities have been molded by similar urbanization processes, neoliberal reforms, urban and environmental policies, and by the presence of scientific groups and multinational networks that have been instrumental in putting climate change on their policy agendas. We compare two late arrivals to the climate change policy arena (Buenos Aires and Santiago) with a frontrunner (Mexico City), and ask whether being a frontrunner is an indicator of greater institutional capacity to respond to climate change and whether barriers to creating institutional response capacity operate similarly across cities regardless of the status of their policy development

Optimal Environmental Taxation with Capital Mobility

G. Schwerhoff (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany), M. Franks, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Optimal Environmental Taxation with Capital Mobility

G. Schwerhoff (1) ; M. Franks, (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Climate policy exemptions for energy intensive sectors are often justified with distributional concerns. One concern is that households employed in energy intensive sectors might be affected disproportionally due to capital mobility. We find that when workers cannot move freely between sectors, a uniform carbon tax causes more inequality between the sectors when capital is mobile than when it is not. Since households benefit more directly from sector-specific labor taxes, than from carbon tax exemptions, the former are more effective in addressing the distributional wedge caused by capital mobility. In addition, we find that the differential effect of capital mobility depends on the government's degree of inequality aversion: Redistribution is more expensive when capital is mobile, so that highly inequality averse governments might even be better off without capital mobility.

 

How should a government take capital mobility into account when designing climate policy? There is a strong concern that climate policy affects energy intensive sectors disproportionally when capital is mobile. This motivates policy exemptions for these sectors. Papers considering exemptions usually consider one representative household. They find that exemptions are not optimal and conclude that carbon taxes should be uniform across sectors. In this paper we consider sector-specific policy as a means of addressing the sector-specific distributional effects created by the interaction of climate policy and capital mobility.

 

We build a model with two sectors of different energy intensity. To reflect the distributional concern we assume sectoral rigidity in labor mobility. The government maximizes a social welfare function which aggregates utility of the households working in the two sectors. The environmental objective is to reduce domestic carbon emissions, motivated for example by the objective to fulfill a carbon reduction target. We then compare the effect of environmental policy with and without capital mobility. We find that indeed climate policy introduces a bigger difference in utility of the households employed in the two sectors when capital is mobile. Based on this we determine the optimal policy package for reconciling distributional and environmental objectives. We find three major results.

 

The first result is that sector specific labor taxes are the most suitable instrument to redistribute among the sectors. Sector specific carbon taxes can indeed be justified, but the difference should be very small. In optimum, redistribution between sectors is mainly achieved through relatively large differences in labor taxes. When labor taxes are optimally differentiated between sectors, the difference between utility of the households employed in the different sectors is much smaller than in the case where labor taxes are constrained to be uniform.

 

The second result is that the reaction of the government depends strongly on its inequality aversion. A utilitarian government achieves a higher welfare under capital mobility since it benefits from the gains of (capital) trade. A strongly inequality averse government faces high cost of countering the inequality increasing effect of climate policy under capital mobility. The cost of redistribution might be so high that it could even be better off without capital mobility.

 

The third result is that climate policy creates a greater difference between capital and labor income under capital mobility than in autarky. The government's ability to counter this shift through labor tax cuts is weakened through capital mobility since the reduced demand for pollution means that carbon tax revenues are lower under capital mobility than in autarky.

Use of sattelite imageries and Numerical weather prediction output in Forecatsing Dust/Haze over West Africa

A. A. Abdoul-Aziz Abebe (ASECNA - NIGER, NIAMEY, Niger, Republic of)

Abstract details
Use of sattelite imageries and Numerical weather prediction output in Forecatsing Dust/Haze over West Africa

AA. Abdoul-Aziz Abebe (1)
(1) ASECNA - NIGER, NIAMEY, Niger, Republic of

Abstract content

Dust Haze occurrence over the sub-Saharan Africa is an annual phenomena, which has attractedquite a lot of attention from both forecasters and scientists. Between november and march,observations show that large dust plumes are transported from both the Sahara and Sahel towardsWest African Countries and accross the Atlantic Ocean. Predicting Dust haze generation should be animportant application of meteorology to development in this area both for economic and socialaspects.The main objective of the present study is to develop methodologies for betterinterpretation and use of NWP and Satellite products in forecasting Dust Haze generated by thepredominant mechanism associated with pressure gradient tendency; improve knowledge andtechniques required to exploit potential predictability of Dust Haze;verification of weather forecasts.One should however keep in mind that atmospheric soundings are needed when other generationmechanisms are concerned.

Black carbon emissions from biomass and fossil fuels: Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

M. Arif (SHARDA UNIVERSITY, GAUTAM BUDDHA NAGAR, UP, India), R. Kumar (SHARDA UNIVERSITY, GAUTAM BUDDHA NAGAR, India), E. Zusman (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Zushi, Japan)

Abstract details
Black carbon emissions from biomass and fossil fuels: Indo-Gangetic Plains, India

M. Arif (1) ; R. Kumar (2) ; E. Zusman (3)
(1) SHARDA UNIVERSITY, ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE, GAUTAM BUDDHA NAGAR, UP, India; (2) SHARDA UNIVERSITY, Environment science, GAUTAM BUDDHA NAGAR, India; (3) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Integrated policies for sustainable societies, Zushi, Japan

Abstract content

Most of the climate change debate and policies has focused on mitigating long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) to reduce global warming. But recently abating short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as black carbon (BC) has entered these discussions. BC emission from biofuel cooking in South Asia and its radiative forcing is a significant source of uncertainty for health and climate impact studies. Quantification of BC emissions in the published literature is either based on laboratory or remote field observations far away from the source. We use field measurements taken simultaneously inside urban and rural households (LPG and biomass users), ambient air and vehicular emissions from highways in area of the Indo-Gangetic-Plains region of India to establish the role of both solid biomass based cooking in traditional stoves, gas stoves and diesel vehicles in contributing to high BC. Household were also interviewed to understand barriers related to clean fuel accessibility and adoptability within users.

 

The major finding of this study till now is able to interpret the BC concentrations during cooking hours, both indoors and outdoors have anomalously large concentrations ranging from 3.82 µg to 105.64 µg for indoor during morning hours (05:00 to 09:00) and 1.32 µg to 130.70 µg for early evening hours (17:00 to 20:00). The BC emission during the non-cooking hours was also large, in the range of 1.05 to 95.44 µg. The peak outdoor BC concentrations are ranging from 6.54 µg to 40.81 µg in morning hours while 3.07 µg to 27.92 µg in evening hours.  BC emission from transportation was also found high in morning and evening hours, have large concentration reaching 4.38 to 52.12 µg in morning hours and 1.71 to 49.02 µg in evening hours. The imprint of the cooking hour peaks were seen in the outdoor BC both in the village as well as in the highway. The results have significant implications for climate and epidemiological studies.

Modélisation de l'impact de la pollution atmosphérique urbaine aux échelles régionale et locale en Afrique de l'Ouest

D. Madina (university Félix Houphoôt Boigny, Cococdy, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

Abstract details
Modélisation de l'impact de la pollution atmosphérique urbaine aux échelles régionale et locale en Afrique de l'Ouest
Abstract content

PhD subjet, 2014

Regional climate modeling of the impact of urban air pollution at regional and local scales in West Africa

Madina DOUMBIA

Felix Houphouet Boigny university UFR SSMT/ Physic Atmospheric Laboratory and Fluid Mecanic, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire

 

ABSTRACT

 

Mainly based on modeling, this study will highlight the impact of particulate and gaseous pollution from the West African megacities on regional climate and urban meteorology. The West African region has very large cities which promote strong anthropogenic urban air pollution. Using the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4) at the scale of West Africa will permit focus on the impact of urban air pollution on the climate of this region. Knowing that megacities affect their environment at local scales, up to the street, where RegCM4 is no more suitable, the Weather Forecast Research and its chemistry module (WFR-CHEM) with finer resolution will be used to study the chemistry of pollutants in the megalopolis. This part will focus essentially on aerosols (BC, OC, SO4 and NO3) and gases (CO2, CO, SO2 and VOC) combustion.

In the preliminary result, we have activated the dustss module to see what it brings disturbance on climate parameters. The tests with the model RegCM reproduce well the patterns of precipitation. Also we compared the temperature of the model with and without chemistry with observations. Thus the presence of dusts has a cooling effect and tends to improve the system. In further work we will characterize and quantify urban air pollution in Abidjan and Lagos. First, it will be for me to refine the inventories of particulate emissions in two megacities of West Africa (Abidjan and Lagos). Also analyze the impact of particulate and gaseous pollution on regional and local climate, while using the WRF_CHEM model for urban study.

Keywords: urban air pollution, RegCM, WRF, climate modeling

 

The Fertilizer and Carbon Sequestration Potential of an Accelerated compost in two soil types

O. E. Ayanfeoluwa (Federal College of Agriculture, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), O. Adeoluwa, (University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), V. O. Aduramigba, (Institute of Agricultural Research and Training, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
The Fertilizer and Carbon Sequestration Potential of an Accelerated compost in two soil types

OE. Ayanfeoluwa (1) ; O. Adeoluwa, (2) ; VO. Aduramigba, (3)
(1) Federal College of Agriculture, Department of Crop production, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) University of Ibadan, Department of agronomy, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (3) Institute of Agricultural Research and Training, Department of land and water resources, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Compost has the potential to trap carbon in the soil while supplying the nutrients needed for the crop use. This study therefore investigated the fertilizer and carbon sequestration potential of an accelerated compost (a new commercial compost from market organic wastes and animal manure with composting accelerated with a specific microorganism). This experiment was laid out in Randomized Complete Block Design with three replications. The treatments were accelerated compost (AC) at the rate of 60, 90, 120, 150 and 180 kg N / ha. The mineral fertilizer (NPK 15-15-15) and conventional compost (CC), both at 60 kgN / ha, as well as the control (no soil additive) were the checks. Data were collected on the maize grain yields at both main and second cropping and post cropping soil organic carbon. Data were analysed using Analysis of variance and means compared with standard error of means. The result of the grain yield at the main planting showed that, on an Alfisol, the 60 kg N / ha AC (3.33 t / ha) compared favourably with 60 kg N / ha NPK (2.97 t / ha) but performed significantly (p<0.05) higher than 60 kg N / ha CC (2.76 t / ha). On an Ultisol, the 60 kg N / ha AC resulted into significantly higher grain yield (3.42 t / ha) than the 60 kg N / ha NPK (2.79 t / ha) and 60 kg N / ha CC (2.74 t / ha). At the residual planting, on an Alfisol, both the 60 kg N / ha AC (2.31 t / ha) and 60 kg N / ha CC (2.41 t / ha) performed significantly higher than the 60 kg N / ha NPK (2.21 t / ha), while the same trend was observed on an Ultisol. The AC sequestrated more carbon (58 % extra compared to the control) than the CC (9 % extra compared to the control) at the same 60 kg N / ha rate on an Alfisol. Also on an Ultisol, Accelerated compost sequestrated more carbon (14 % extra compared to the control) than the CC (8 % extra compared to the control) at the same 60 kg N / ha rate. It could therefore be concluded that the shortness in maturity of accelerated compost does not limit its fertilizer and carbon sequestration potential.

Environment Tribunals and Justice: The Indian Experience

R. Brara (University of Delhi, India, Delhi, India)

Abstract details
Environment Tribunals and Justice: The Indian Experience

R. Brara (1)
(1) University of Delhi, India, Department of Sociology, Delhi, India

Abstract content

 

I inquire into practices and experiences with adjudication that emerge from a study of the cases filed before the newly formed National Green Tribunal in India and interviews with selected lawyers and appellants that focus on governance and justice. My endeavour is to show how the affected public’s vulnerability to environmental and climate change intersects with the discourse and practice of governance, ethics and justice as well as resilience, mitigation and adaptation.

Taking a bird’s eye-view, collective experiences of vulnerability have given rise to the organization of multiple environmental publics in India. Analyzing the cases filed before the National Green Tribunal by these publics enables me to demonstrate that by litigating the environmental public interest, the experience of vulnerabilities is often transformed into events marked by resilience though not necessarily by success.

From a local perspective, issues of climate change and the environment cannot be easily disentangled since climate change hits the environment as base. It is a local climate-cum   environmental violation that comes to threaten the life of an individual or household and is articulated as worthy of further action by gathering a public and acquiring a strategic local scale. The next step begins with the search for an environmental lawyer (and funds) for adjudication before the Tribunal. This step is the event’s translation into the language of law and the state, which produces and views the violation from an altered scale and perspective. The transformation is experienced as a rupture that marks the distance from a local public to a public mediated by the environmental laws of the state.

New interactions then occur across scales such that the environmental/climate cause lawyer assumes a critical role – with one face turned to the local, as it were, and the other to the law as its representative interpreter. The environmental lawyer addresses the mismatches between the scale of law and the local apprehension of the problem and scale as he sifts the facts and frames them for presentation in a legal case. What comes into being at the local level, then, is a heightened awareness, friction and even a revelation, of the limits of legal processes (spatially, temporally and including their possibilities for justice). Simultaneously, therefore parallel channels of communication are activated and engaged to reach out to politicians and government officials at multiple sites in the quest for justice.  

The Legal Bench of the Tribunal embodies the statutory perspective even more completely than the lawyer. Here the facts of the case are readily rendered as background and the legal order of argumentation and knowledge, into which the case must fit, takes precedence. From this perspective, the judge or Bench often reads the environmental violation as an issue that stems from the inadequacy of the executive which has failed to do its jobs and let the problem fester. As the legal judgment, in its corrective mode, travels back to the local, it is inevitably filtered through the visions of the executive, such that the local enforcement of a judgment on the ground is rendered uncertain and risky. The implementation of a sound legal judgment is contingent on the local bureaucracy and the local public attempts to adapt to this maladapted reality.   

The global of environmental law and governance also emerges as a producer of new scales and perspectives from a different situated context. The transnational environmental climate sphere’s scales and processes, too, journey downwards to nation-states where these are both ratified and refracted. The judge who embodies the statutory order of the nation state also appears as the arbiter of national difference from promulgated global principles of environmental-cum-climate regulation. International treaties are thus unable to trump national sovereignty in the present.

What you have, then, is an insubordination of scales, compelling us to move up, down and sideways to understand and address the legitimacies/ illegitimacies of governance and justice and the frictions of local and national difference in the context of environmental climate change. 

 

Governance of Local Disaster Management Committees in line with SOD in Bangladesh

S. A. Siddiquee (WAVE Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Governance of Local Disaster Management Committees in line with SOD in Bangladesh

SA. Siddiquee (1)
(1) WAVE Foundation, Monitoring and Evaluation, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Due to its geographical location Bangladesh has always been prone to natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, tidal surges, tornadoes, river-bank erosion and many more. Bangladesh has shown significant improvement in disaster management which is proven by its possession of Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD), Disaster Management Act, National Disaster Management Plan, Disaster Management Policy, Disaster Management Committees at the District, Upazila and Union levels. However, despite the government’s commitment and effort given by many actors the room for improvement prevails in the disaster management system. A total of 51 DMCs in five districts that were vulnerable to flood, river-bank erosion, drought and cyclone were taken as sample to analyse the current situation of these committees. The study was conducted using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Both open-ended and close-ended questions were asked. Questionnaire and KII tools were used to collect information from respondents in both the government organizations and NGOs. The study has observed poor coordination between GO and NGOs at the sub-national and local level. Surprisingly, the study has found that only 38.9% DMC members are informed about Disaster Management Act and 36.76% are aware about their roles and responsibilities in the Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD). Although the selected districts are extremely prone to disasters, surprisingly it has been observed that 70% of DDMCs and 30% of UzDMCs are holding regular meetings and only 16.22% of UDMCs are holding regular meetings as per the SOD. The scenario mentioned above clearly states that the DMCs are not active as they should have been according to the SOD. Only 43.80% of DMCs have Risk Reduction Action Plan (RRAP) but perform very few activities according to the RRAP. It was found that only 23.3% of DMCs have developed volunteer groups and only 26% of DMCs have arranged community awareness building programmes. The study has also found that only 34% of Union Parishads have incorporated DRR into their Annual Development Plan. It is alarming that even though Bangladesh is one of the prime victims of climate change, encountering severe and frequent disasters like Sidr, Aila and Mahasen, 66% of the sample Union Parishads did not have DRR integrated into their ADPs. Based on the gaps recognized in the study, it can be concluded that the functionality of the DMCs needs to be improved through capacity building, training, and materials such as a guidebook to simplify the SOD etc. in order to levitate the current Disaster Management System. Empowering the DMC members by increasing their level of understanding in Information Technology and by linking them to the national level will ultimately lead to more and improved governance system of Disaster Management Committees.

Development of Hybrid Coal with Bio-fuel Derived from Non-edible Resources and its Process

S.-J. Park (Korea Institute of Energy Research, Daejeon, Republic of Korea), J.-S. Bae (Korea Institute of Energy Research, DaeJeon, Republic of Korea), Y.-J. Lee (Korea Institute of Energy Research, DaeJeon, Republic of Korea), J.-H. Park (Korea Institute of Energy Research, DaeJeon, Republic of Korea), J.-G. Kim (Korea Institute of Energy Research, DaeJeon, Republic of Korea), J.-H. Park (Dongwon Engineering, Sihueng, Republic of Korea), Y.-C. Choi (Korea Institute of Energy Research, DaeJeon, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
Development of Hybrid Coal with Bio-fuel Derived from Non-edible Resources and its Process

SJ. Park (1) ; JS. Bae (1) ; YJ. Lee (1) ; JH. Park (1) ; JG. Kim (2) ; JH. Park (3) ; YC. Choi (1)
(1) Korea Institute of Energy Research, Clean Fuel Laboratory, Daejeon, Republic of Korea; (2) Korea Institute of Energy Research, Energy saving laboratory, DaeJeon, Republic of Korea; (3) Dongwon Engineering, Ceo, Sihueng, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

The Korean government has implemented energy policies such as RPS and ETS to raise the share of renewable energy sources since 2012. Among the renewable sources, carbon-neutral biomass, particularly solid fuel, is immediately applicable in coal fired power plants, so a number of approaches to utilize bio-fuel by co-combustion with coal have been investigated. Hybrid Coal by Korea Institute of Energy Research (HCK) is a novel fuel for existing coal-fired power plants to cope with implementation of RPS, and we have published several articles related to the diversification of bioliquid to secure its feasibility. Many hydrophilic and hydrophobic bioliquids such as glycerol, bio-oils, and oil residues have been applied to saccharide substitutable substances, however crucial limitations of each bioliquid were found. For examples, glycerol having hydrophilic property is eligible to be impregnated in coal pores, which is primarily derived from ash, but moisture readsorption cannot be inhibited since Hybrid Coal with glycerol is not allowed to treat at desired temperature (250℃) for hydrophobicity as our previous work. Also, hydrophobic bioliquids like bio-oils and oil residues, unlike hydrophilic ones, cannot penetrate into hydrophilic coal pores, then most of them only coat the surface of coal or partially remain among coal particles. This may cause a decrease in thermal efficiency due to the heat imbalance and higher unburned carbon ratio in a power plant boiler from the difference combustion behavior between coal and biomass, consequently we have concluded saccharide is the best substance to produce Hybrid Coal. However, an ethical problem related to an edible substance might arise if a sugar cane-derived bioliquid is used. In the present paper, Hybrid Coal with bio-fuel (bio-ethanol process) derived from non-edible resources is first investigated to promote its feasibility.

 

Dr

S. Fuss (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany)

Abstract details
Dr

S. Fuss (1)
(1) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Resources and International Trade, Berlin, Germany

Abstract content

Climate analysis at local scale in the context of climate change

Issues related to climate change increasingly concern the functioning of local scale geo-systems. A global change will necessarily affect local climates. In this context, the potential impacts of climate change lead to numerous interrogations concerning adaptation. Despite numerous studies on the impact of projected global warming on different regions, global atmospheric models (GCM) are not adapted to local scales and, as a result, impacts at local scales are still approximate. Although real progress in regional climate modeling was realized over the past years, no operative model is in use yet to simulate climate at local scales (ten or so meters). It is therefore at a finer spatial scale, which considers land surface characteristics, it will be possible to assess the impacts of climate change. Our scientific approach aims to develop a methodology based on climatic observations in situ and on spatial modeling of climate, which permits to evaluate the spatial variability of atmospheric parameters at fine scales (mean values ​​and climatic extremes). By completing the lack of data at local scales, this work allows to improve the understanding on climate changes that may appear at local scale and thus advance the assessment of the potential impacts. This methodology is developed and applied in agro climatology (viticulture) and in urban climatology.

In viticulture, the LIFE-ADVICLIM (LIFE13 ENV/FR/001512: ADapatation of VIticulture to CLIMate change : High resolution observations of adaptation scenarii for viticulture) project aims at observing climate at local scales in different European vineyards, representing the climate diversity in European wine regions ; simulating climate and climate change in order to produce a fine scale assessment of the climate change impacts, thereafter simulating scenarii of adaptation for viticulture. Climate modeling at fine scales will include (i) the output from numerical EURO-CORDEX models with a kilometer resolution (ii) the spatial modeling of climatic data from the measurement networks using multicriteria modeling at very high resolution (90 m), and (iii) the future climate simulations using meso-scale climatic model ran under different scenarios of climate change. (i) The coarse resolution output from numerical climate models require downscaling. We use the downscaling output of EURO-CORDEX. It will provide knowledge and understanding of  climate variability at meso-scale in the different studied European wine regions. Climatic data from national weather station networks will be used to validate the outputs of modelled data. (ii) In order to construct fine-scale spatial temperature fields, the multicriteria modelling will be used. This approach takes environmental factors into account. Indeed, the role of topographic factors in the spatial variability of temperatures at fine scales, in addition to the influence of geographical location (latitude/longitude) at larger scale has already been demonstrated. This type of modeling will make use of the climatic data provided by the fine scale network. (iii) We use simulations of climate change scenarios (for Europe) carried out CORDEX program

For example, the results of the measurements and modeling adapted at terroir scales have permitted to highlight a strong spatial variability of climate at very small spaces. In terms of temperatures, the spatial differences generated by the local conditions (topography, etc.) are very often greater than the increase in temperatures simulated by the different scenarios of IPCC for the next 50 years. Vine growers adapt their practices to this spatial variability of climate that partly determines the characteristics and uniqueness of their wine. In the context of climate change, this approach of a spatial analysis could be a method to adapt to the temporal changes in climate, especially in the short and medium term.

In urban climatogy, the same scientific approach (measurement and modeling at fine scales) has been applied. The same methodology was applied in Rennes city. The results showed a strong spatial variability of the temperatures in relation to local characteristics of the city (eg green areas, densely built-up urban area...). In the context of global change, climate analysis at fine scales helps to define the development policies.

Can we bet on negative emissions to achieve the 2°C stabilization target even under strong carbon cycle feedbacks?

K. Tanaka (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan), Y. Yamagata (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan), T. Yokohata (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan)

Abstract details
Can we bet on negative emissions to achieve the 2°C stabilization target even under strong carbon cycle feedbacks?

K. Tanaka (1) ; Y. Yamagata (1) ; T. Yokohata (1)
(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan

Abstract content

Given the narrowing windows of opportunities to stay below 2°C, negative emission technologies such as Bioenergy with Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (BioCCS) play an ever more crucial role in meeting the 2°C stabilization target endorsed by the Cancun Agreement (Fuss et al. 2014). Negative emission technologies – if deployable at a sufficiently large scale during the second half of this century – would make the 2°C target more feasible in the midst of the slow political progress and might allow current emissions unchecked for some time if stakeholders are in the process of converging to a platform to abate emissions globally. However, such technologies are currently at their infancy and their future penetrations may fall short of the scale required to stabilize the warming (Scott et al. 2013). Furthermore, the overshoot in the mid-century prior to a full realization of negative emissions would give rise to a risk because such a temporal but excessive warming above 2°C might amplify itself by strengthening climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, which are known to be positive albeit with large uncertainties (Friedlingstein et al. 2006). When one considers other classes of carbon cycle feedbacks including those with permafrost thawing and wildfire, such a risk could be even higher. It has not been extensively assessed yet how carbon cycle feedbacks might play out during the overshoot in the context of negative emissions, while the literature on carbon cycle feedbacks has burgeoned in recent years.

 

This study explores how 2°C stabilization pathways, in particular those which undergo overshoot, can be influenced by carbon cycle feedbacks and asks their climatic and economic consequences. We compute 2°C stabilization emissions scenarios under a cost-effectiveness principle, in which the total abatement costs are minimized such that the global warming is capped at 2°C. We employ a reduced-complexity model, the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry, and Climate model (ACC2) (Tanaka et al., 2013), which comprises a box model of the global carbon cycle, simple parameterizations of the atmospheric chemistry, and a land-ocean energy balance model. The total abatement costs are estimated from the Marginal Abatement Cost functions for CO2, CH4, N2O, and BC, which are derived from Azar (2013).

 

Our preliminary results show that, if carbon cycle feedbacks turn out to be stronger than what is known today, it would incur substantial abatement costs to keep up with the 2°C stabilization goal. Our results also suggest that it would be less expensive in the long run to plan for a 2°C stabilization pathway by considering strong carbon cycle feedbacks because it would cost more if we correct the emission pathway in the mid-century to adjust for unexpectedly large carbon cycle feedbacks during overshoot. Furthermore, our tentative results point to a key policy message: do not rely on negative emissions to achieve the 2°C target. It would make more sense to gear climate mitigation actions toward the stabilization target without betting on negative emissions because negative emissions might create large overshoot in case of strong feedbacks. Our simple approach illuminates a need for investigating this issue further by using a range of models including coupled Earth System Model (ESM)-Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to serve for the framework to be agreed upon in COP21 and maintained beyond.

 

References

1. Azar C., et al. (2013) Meeting global temperature targets—the role of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Environmental Research Letters 8 034004

2. Friedlingstein, P., et al. (2006) Climate–carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison. Journal of Climate 19 3337-3353

3. Fuss S., et al. (2014) Betting on negative emissions. Nature Climate Change 4 850-853

4. Scott V., et al. (2013) Last chance for carbon capture and storage. Nature Climate Change 3 105-111

5. Tanaka K., et al. (2013) Emission metrics under the 2°C climate stabilization target. Climatic Change 117 933-941

From scenarios to reality – key issues with upscaling BECCS

N. Vaughan (University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom), C. Gough (University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
From scenarios to reality – key issues with upscaling BECCS

N. Vaughan (1) ; C. Gough (2)
(1) University of East Anglia, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, United Kingdom; (2) University of Manchester, Tyndall centre for climate change research, Manchester, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Substantial amounts of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are used in the majority of emissions scenarios directed at limiting climate change to 2°C. The feasibility of these scenarios is an important concern for climate policy.  We used an expert elicitation methodology to explore the key explicit and implicit assumptions that underlie these scenarios’ use of BECCS to deliver so-called negative emissions.  The process highlighted key interlinked issues surrounding land availability, land use and land policy; timing of technology and infrastructure developments; and policy incentives, verification and social acceptability. Whilst there was agreement over the potential for BECCS to remove CO2 from the atmosphere and produce energy, claims to its capacity are potentially being over-relied upon and overstretched under the policy pressure to generate emissions scenarios that meet a 2°C limit.

Developments, opportunities and challenges for Bio-CCS in order to achieve negative emissions

S. Van Der Gijp (TNO, Utrecht, Netherlands)

Abstract details
Developments, opportunities and challenges for Bio-CCS in order to achieve negative emissions

S. Van Der Gijp (1)
(1) TNO, Sustainable Geo-Energy, Utrecht, Netherlands

Abstract content

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is the only way to decarbonize fossil fuel. Large scale, full-scale demonstration projects such as the one in Boundary Dam Canada prove that this is an effective technology. A similar technological approach can be taken in the cases of (Co-)firing biomass, biogas production and other biofuel applications, all of which can contribute significantly to a more sustainable energy mix, increased security of supply and a reduction of CO2 emissions. Both combustion and gasification routes to biomass conversion can be equipped with CCS which will result in most cases in a negative CO2 foot print.

First generation biofuels have some crucial limitations.  By applying a thermochemical treatment process those limitations can be largely reduced. Typical thermochemical routes include pyrolysis, gasification, torrefaction and biochemical treatments. The products obtained are in most cases a combustible gas, solid char and CO2. The options for electricity and the scale of emissions generated reflect the biomass type and conversion route.  Currently the main focus is to improve operational performance such as:  efficiency, power flexibility and a (further) reduction of the emissions.

Large scale biomass combustion is mainly developed for the power companies, as a substitution for coal. Also standalone 250MWe CHP based on biomass pellets has been scrutinized by those companies.  So far co-feeding of biomass in coal fired power station has been successfully accomplished at a level of  10-20% weight bases. Biomass polygeneration is based on partial oxidation (indirect gasification). The resulting syngas can be used as a raw  material for the production of special chemical products or the production of hydrogen. The syngas can also be used to generate electricity and heat.

The integration with CCS brings with it specific challenges. Clever process integration  is required as well as understanding the specific functional requirements. The use of Biomass required specific process conditions and material properties. In addition  the use  creates new types of impurities in the process and flue gas that :

  • causes an increase corrosion (which in its turn affect amongst others the warrantee of the power plant);
  • change the generic grid code requirements and more local grid requirements regarding ancillary services (power flexibility);
  • have an effect on the requirements of the CO2 capture solvent;
  • have a severe impact on the economics and
  • finally the different operation modes compared to traditional fossil fuel large scale power plants has an implication on the downstream CO2 infrastructure, transport, use and storage.

The EERA joined program on CCS serves as platform to share the outcomes of research of the leading research entities in Europe and their program leads the way in the future joined development of Bio-CCS.

 

How much negative emission is physically needed to keep global warming below 2°C?

T. Gasser (CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France), C. Guivarch (CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France), K. Tachiiri (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan), C. Jones (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), P. Ciais (LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

Abstract details
How much negative emission is physically needed to keep global warming below 2°C?

T. Gasser (1) ; C. Guivarch (1) ; K. Tachiiri (2) ; C. Jones (3) ; P. Ciais (4)
(1) CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; (2) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; (3) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; (4) LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Abstract content

RCP 2.6 is the only representative climate change scenario produced for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report that likely limits global warming to less than 2°C above preindustrial levels. Following such a scenario needs a strong reduction in the net amount of fossil CO2 released into the atmosphere by humankind. This reduction can be achieved by a combination of "conventional mitigation", i.e. decreasing global fossil-fuel consumption, and "negative emissions", i.e. engineered removal of atmospheric CO2 (be it through on-site capture and storage, direct air capture, enhancement of natural carbon sinks, etc.). As part of the current debate on the role negative emissions might play in reaching the 2°C target, we quantify the trade-off between conventional mitigation and negative emissions in RCP 2.6. We use a three-step approach to do so. First, we take fossil CO2 emission trajectories estimated to be compatible with this scenario using Earth system models. Second, we make assumptions about maximum feasible pathways of conventional mitigation, covering a wide range of possible futures. Third, for each of these pathways, we deduce the gross negative emissions as the complementary amount of carbon that needs to be captured when conventional mitigation alone is not enough to follow the pathway compatible with the RCP2.6 scenario.

If conventional mitigation starts in 2015 at a -5% yearly rate (our best case), a maximum removal rate of 5 GtCO2/yr and a storage capacity of 550 GtCO2 are required. If conventional mitigation starts in 2030 at -1% per year (worst case), those requirements are 33 GtC/yr and 4800 GtCO2 respectively. The latter figures range from 25 to 40 GtCO2/yr and from 3500 to 6000 GtCO2 respectively, when accounting for our lack of understanding of the carbon-climate feedback. However, the ultimate product of our study is an abacus where one can make assumptions on future conventional mitigation and read the negative emission requirements – and associated uncertainty – compatible with maintaining global warming below 2°C, as estimated by state-of-the-art Earth system models.

When comparing our mass-balance estimates of gross negative emissions to those by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), ours fall in the lower end of the range. This logically follows our approach of always choosing conventional mitigation over negative emissions when the mitigation potential allows it. Our approach thus provides a physical lower bound of negative emission requirements for a given mitigation potential. Conversely, in integrated assessments negative emissions may be chosen over conventional mitigation at any time, depending on which is found more economical to develop under assumed costs and technological potentials. Here, our study does not rely on assumptions about technologies and costs (but on the assumed mitigation potential). Another major difference with studies using IAMs is that ours rely on state-of-the-art Earth system models. Despite the drawback of having to set some drivers exogenously, it allows a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty related to the future response of the carbon-climate system. Here, we show this uncertainty can be greater than the results between two different mitigation floor assumptions. It emphasizes that the uncertainty surrounding any policy decision related to negative emissions primarily comes from our lack of understanding of the future behavior of the Earth system.

To conclude, we find that negative emissions are required at significant levels (i.e.  >1 GtC/yr) even for very aggressive mitigation floors. Given that negative emission technologies are still at an early stage of development, this pleads in favor of developing (financial) mechanisms to put them on a technological learning trajectory. But then, in all but the most optimistic cases, we also find negative emission requirements that have not yet been shown to be achievable: be it the flux of removal or the storage capacity. Following others, this study suggests that negative emissions alone are unlikely to be the panacea that will limit global warming below 2°C, and that conventional mitigation should remain a significant part of any climate policy aiming at this target.

Negative emissions in sustainable transition : Which role for bioenergies and CCS?

A. Laude-Depezay (Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, Reims, France), X. Galiègue (Université d'Orléans, Orléans, France)

Abstract details
Negative emissions in sustainable transition : Which role for bioenergies and CCS?

A. Laude-Depezay (1) ; X. Galiègue (2)
(1) Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, Laboratoire REGARDS, Reims, France; (2) Université d'Orléans, Laboratoire d'economie d'orléans, Orléans, France

Abstract content

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a technology that aims to capture CO2 coming from static emitters such as coal-fired electric plants, then to transport it by pipelines until a geological reservoir (e.g. saline aquifers), where the CO2 is stored definitively. It is then an “end-of-pipe” technology, so it avoids to release pollution in the environment, but does not change the production process itself, contrary to renewable energies or improved energy efficiency. Besides, CCS needs additional energy – named energy penalty – and could reinforce the current technological lock-in in fossil energy. However, CCS could also allow a rapid decline of emissions on existing production facilities by the end of the century, when alternatives (such as renewable energies) will be fully deployed. In this case, the current sociotechnical regime based on fossil energies could be maintained for a while.

BECCS (Bioenergy and Carbon Capture & Storage) is a CCS niche that adds a CCS process on a bioenergy production unit.. Industrial sectors such as biofuels, electric generation from biomass (or coal and biomass) or paper production are concerned. BECCS could change our point of view on the CCS role into the sustainable transition, as it could provide negative emissions, which means that more GHG emissions are avoided than emitted during a production process. Instead of being released into the atmosphere during biomass transformation, carbon is definitively stored. If biomass transformation is assumed nearly carbon neutral, BECCS should effectively lead to negative emissions. This has been checked in a few cases in academic literature (IEA GHG, 2009; Laude et al., 2011). In addition, a synergy between BECCS and geothermal energy recovery has been recently explored in the CO2-DISSOLVED project (Kervévan, Beddelem, & Neil, 2013). This process is adapted to small or medium emitters, like BECCS emitters are in most cases. It could reduce significantly the energy penalty due to CCS.

The aim of this paper is then to investigate the specific role of BECCS into the sustainable transition, and more precisely its impact on its timing. This issue has been discussed mainly through Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), which compute the evolution of the worldwide energy system under climate constraint until the end of the century. IAM modeling is one of the main tools used by IPCC for its forecasts and recommendations. It is then widely considered that CCS and BECCS could be key technologies to keep temperature increase below 2°C, especially if worldwide actions are delayed.

We use here a different point of view to deal with this issue: the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP).  This conceptual framework analyses transition as a mutation process from one sociotechnical regime to another, under the pressure of macro-level forces (named the landscape), and the emergence of market niches that could provide the basis of the new regime (Geels & Schot, 2007). Here, climate change could be seen as a macro pressure (with economic and social aspects), that requires a deep change of the global energy system, i.e. the socio-technical regime. It is important to point out that both CCS and BECCS remain technological solutions, even if they require policy incentives and social acceptance. According to the typology of Arundel, Kareva, and Kemp (2011), they belong to the “techno-fix” innovations, while other solutions are available, grounded on changes in user, market, and institutional practices, as Social Innovation (change in social uses) or Transformative Innovations (both changes in social uses and technology). On the contrary “techno-fix” innovations allow preserving past habits and institutional practices through the development of new techniques, and so could contribute to the lock-in effect.

Unlike CCS, BECCS competes no more with renewable energies and could help to get a low-carbon society. Actually, BECCS is likely to become available in the second part of the century. If mitigation is delayed, it could be used to fix an overshoot of CO2 emissions in the first part of the century, thanks to negative emissions. Given the uncertainties regarding CCS and BECCS development, this last strategy could be a dangerous bet (Fuss et al., 2014). Moreover, BECCS concerns involve also biodiversity damages and the risk of higher biomass and food prices. This contribution will discuss more deeply the challenges connected to BECCS until 2100.

Negative emissions - interactions with other mitigation options

F. Kraxner (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria), S. Fuss (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Berlin, Germany), P. Havlik (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria), A. Mosnier, (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria), S. Leduc, (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria), P. Yowargana, (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract details
Negative emissions - interactions with other mitigation options

F. Kraxner (1) ; S. Fuss (2) ; P. Havlik (1) ; A. Mosnier, (1) ; S. Leduc, (1) ; P. Yowargana, (1)
(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM), Laxenburg, Austria; (2) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Resources and International Trade, Berlin, Germany

Abstract content

Many scenarios in IPCC’s recent Assessment Report (AR5) find that there is a need for negative emissions in order to stabilize at concentration levels consistent with 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This demand is under present technology assumptions largely covered by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). One major concern is that high feedstock potentials are supposed to be located in forests of the southern hemisphere, i.e. in the tropics, which is where at the same time forests are most vulnerable to deforestation. Consequently, a land-based mitigation option such as large-scale bioenergy production (w/o CCS) will interfere with options that are popular for their large co-benefits such as reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+). Thus, based on a multi-scale bottom-up modeling approach (using an integrated land use model coupled with a global forestry model), this study aims to identify and quantify possible tradeoffs (i.e. land use-based mitigation options compete for the same land) and synergies (i.e. both options provide incentives to keep an intact and sustainably managed forest) between REDD+ and BECCS. The global results elicit the system interactions. However, they do not necessarily shed much light on the situation on the ground. Thus, a regional analysis will be carried out, zooming into Indonesia as an important tropical basin that is assessed with respect to REDD+ and BECCS interactions. This country has been chosen as a pilot region for REDD+BECCS because it looks back at decades of heavy deforestation, has established a strong palm oil sector and its remaining forests face high pressure from agriculture and a relatively developed infrastructure network. Our analysis shows that avoiding deforestation can have many implications for the establishment of sustainable bioenergy. It is therefore imperative to align REDD+ and BECCS strategies in the future for achieving optimal mitigation potentials.

Incentives for the Research, Development and Deployment of Greenhouse Gas Removal Techniques

T. Kruger (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Incentives for the Research, Development and Deployment of Greenhouse Gas Removal Techniques

T. Kruger (1)
(1) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Climate models that achieve the policy objective of limiting warming to less than 2°C do so by assuming not only extremely fast reductions in emissions, but also the deployment of technologies that remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere at a massive scale. Yet there is no substantive research to validate the assumption that such proposed Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) techniques could be deployed at the scale implied.

This presentation will address the issue of the incentives required for researching, developing and deploying GGR techniques. It will examine the reasons for the current absence of such  incentives and explore how the development of a technology that could safely, scalably and economically remove CO2 from the atmosphere and sequester it permanently could result in a rational, moral and global carbon price.

Missed Targets, Missed Opportunities! Lessons from tracking Adaptation Financing for Zambia

P. Mbozi (University of Zambia, lusaka, Zambia)

Abstract details
Missed Targets, Missed Opportunities! Lessons from tracking Adaptation Financing for Zambia

P. Mbozi (1)
(1) University of Zambia, Institute of Economic and Social Research, lusaka, Zambia

Abstract content

Who funds and who benefits from climate change adaptation (CCA) funds in Zambia? This was main question that a study commissioned by the Zambia Climate Change Network wanted answered. The study set out to map, track and analyze both domestic and foreign financial flows to CCA, as part of the global Adaptation Finance Tracking Initiative (AFTI). The goal was to improve CSO advocacy for transparency, accountability, participation and ownership of programming and financing for CCA and resilience in Zambia and help address identified institutional and structural constraints to the effective delivery of climate finance to intended beneficiary constituencies. The experience would be used strengthen tools to track and monitor adaptation and resilience finance flows from a multitude of sources down to the local level and for South-to-South learning. The study focused primarily on seven sectors which are targets of climate proofing and the extent to which these funds trickled down to the beneficiary target groups. The methodology involved review of secondary data sources including the National Budgets (Yellow Book), and sought primary information through interviews with ZCCN members, stakeholders, community leaders and local people and community based organizations at district level.

The study established three windows of financing CCA programmes in Zambia:  1. National resources; 2. Donor funds through budget support; 3. Direct programme or project support from the donors: and, 4. CSO funds from donors either through the Civil Society Environment Fund (CSEF)  or through bilateral agreements between a donor or donors and a particular NGO.The study notes that funding for CCA is donor driven, with government contributing less than 1% of the total expenditure to the seven sectors; lack of prioritization for CCA; negligible and fluctuating funding; and, less CCA funds compared to mitigation. Variations between budgeted and/or pledged funds and actual disbursements is noted, including among donor finances. Lack of government policy on climate change affects climate change financing, resulting in budget variations from year to year and lack of a budget line specifically for CCA especially for grass-root activities. Most funds go to upstream activities – salaries, workshops, etc - and CCA is lumped together with environment and other CC interventions, such as mitigation, in the national budgets. This makes it is difficult to track CCA funds and it explains why there are no visible CCA activities on the ground. The study also notes rigidity in budget lines to accommodate emerging issues, such as CCA and limited absorptive capacities among recipient sectors, resulting in variances between disbursed and utilized funds.The study found that stakeholders and ordinary people, especially at the local level, are not involved at any of the three key levels of the budget process: 1. Preparation of the budgets; monitoring expenditures from the allocated funds; and, reviewing the impact of the funded programmes, hence apparent mismatch between what the government does and what the people see as their main priorities. Further, stakeholders and local communities lack civic education about the budget and its processes and about their own rights in national resource allocation; therefore weak in demanding financial accountability and effective participation in tracking government expenditures.The study also established that the budgeting process and budgets themselves are too complicated for ordinary citizens, even professionals responsible for budgets at local level, to understand. Many people are often put off by the size of the Yellow Book and the difficulties in accessing the financial and Auditor General’s reports. Further, tracking and budgeting for CCA funds is hampered by lack of knowledge of CCA funds coming into Zambia by heads and staff of government departments, stakeholders and local communities and their leaders. The study also notes lack of synergy and collaboration, especially at local level, among organizations, including CSOs that are involved in CCA in one way or the other. This weakens their capacity in advocacy.The study acknowledges the existence of various methods and tools of tracking finances for specific interventions. It recommends a cocktail of tools of tools. It recommends focused advocacy towards priortisation of CCA financing through domestic resources, more social accountability, transparency and community and stakeholder ownership participation in allocations and disbursements.

Surface runoff evaluation watershed Tunisian-Algerian border modeling with software WEAP

M. Ben Abdelmalek (l’Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, city El mahrajéne,El manzah 1 , Tunis , Tunisia), I. Nouiri, (l’Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, city El mahrajéne,El manzah 1 , Tunis , Tunisia)

Abstract details
Surface runoff evaluation watershed Tunisian-Algerian border modeling with software WEAP

M. Ben Abdelmalek (1) ; I. Nouiri, (1)
(1) l’Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, génie rural eaux et forets, city El mahrajéne,El manzah 1 , Tunis , Tunisia

Abstract content

Tunisia is considered among the countries least endowed with water resources in the Mediterranean basin. The most significant changes in rainfall and making the periods of drought longer are the factors aggravating the imbalance between supply and demand water.

The main objective of this work is the hydrological study of the major trans-boundary watersheds Tunisian-Algerian. It is referred trans-boundary runoff modeling and assessment of surface water inflows to Tunisia of Algerian border regions.

The methodology used was based on the creation of a daily database (1 September 2009 - 31 August 2013) of rainfall in 43 stations, statistical analysis and spatial measurements. It also used for modeling the physical system of trans-boundary basins the software WEAP. The assessment of daily surface resources, demands and runoff were used to develop a daily dynamic management model.

The modeling results showed that Algeria's surface flows to Tunisia are mainly presented through the Oued Medjerda, Mellegue and El Kbir. The average annual intake is around 8204 million m3 which 22.41% are insured by the river of Medjerda , 63.51% from Mellegue and 14.08% from El Kbir one. The largest flows are carried by the Mellegue river which is valued at 2505 m3/s. The Medjerda and El Kbir river have recorded peak flows 806 and 732 m3/s, respectively, during the period of the study.

The simulation of climate scenarios and investment, showed that the change in the water flow follows the variation of rainfall. It is shown by simulation that if rainfall increases by 200% (very humid scenario), runoff can increase up to 265%. On the contrary, if rainfall decreases from 80% (very dry scenario), surface runoff would be reduced by about 85%.The first version of transboundary river basin management model developed Tunisian-Algerian proved useful for modeling of surface water resources for large hydrological catchments.

 

Sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean during the last 12,000 years: a tool to better constrain the future projection of sea-level rise

M. Vacchi (Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE CNRS-IRD UMR 34, Aix-en-Provence, France), N. Marriner (CNRS,Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR6249,Université de Franche-Comté,, Besancon, France), C. Morhange (Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE CNRS-IRD UMR 34, Aix-en-Provence, France), G. Spada (Urbino University, Urbino, Italy), A. Fontana (Università di Padova, Padova, Italy), A. Rovere (MARUM, ZMT, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany)

Abstract details
Sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean during the last 12,000 years: a tool to better constrain the future projection of sea-level rise

M. Vacchi (1) ; N. Marriner (2) ; C. Morhange (3) ; G. Spada (4) ; A. Fontana (5) ; A. Rovere (6)
(1) Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE CNRS-IRD UMR 34, Aix-en-Provence, France; (2) CNRS,Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR6249,Université de Franche-Comté,, Besancon, France; (3) Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE CNRS-IRD UMR 34, Cerege,, Aix-en-Provence, France; (4) Urbino University, Department of mathematics, physics and informatics, Urbino, Italy; (5) Università di Padova, Dipartimento di scienze della terra, Padova, Italy; (6) MARUM, ZMT, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

Abstract content

Global sea-level rise is the result of an increase in the ocean volume, which evolves from changes in ocean mass due to melting of continental glaciers and ice sheets, and the expansion of ocean water as it warms. The elevation of the ocean surface relative to the ocean floor is defined as a relative sea level (RSL), and any shift in height of either of these two surfaces produces a RSL change. Present-day sea level variations in the Mediterranean depend on various factors, including recent climatic forcing, tectonic activity, anthropogenic effects, and glacio-isostatic adjustment. Our understanding of current rates of sea-level rise from tide gauge and satellite data, requires correction for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects that are both calibrated to, and independently tested by, observations of former sea levels. With this purpose, we created a database of Holocene (last 12.0 ka) geological and geo-archeological sea-level data across the Western Mediterranean. We reconsidered ~600 published and unpublished sea-level data along the western Mediterranean Sea and we proposed a standardized approach for the production of index and limiting points following the protocol described by the International Geoscience Programme (IGCP) projects 61, 200, 495 and 588. We then reconstructed the RSL histories in 21 regions located in Spain, France, Italy, Malta, Tunisia, Slovenia and Croatia. At the basin scale, RSL rose rapidly from 12.0 to 6.0 ka BP. Younger data showed a significant decrease in the rising rates in the last 6.0 ka. During the late Holocene (last 4.0 ka BP) GIA, sediment compaction and local neotectonic activity played a major role in controlling sea-level variability between regions. Data showed that sea-level was higher than today only in Tunisia.

Preliminary comparison with long-term tidal gauge data (>50 years) indicates an increase in rates of sea-level rise during the last 100 years.

Results of this study are relevant for understanding how GIA operates in the far field of late-Pleistocene ice sheets and to assess sea level rise hazards, which are particularly magnified in low-lying or subsiding coastal areas.

Predicted climate change effects in a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate scenarios and management options

J. Prats Rodríguez (Pôle Irstea - Onema Plans d'Eau, Aix-en-Provence, France), P.-A. Danis (Pôle Irstea - Onema Plans d'Eau, Aix-en-Provence, France)

Abstract details
Predicted climate change effects in a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate scenarios and management options

J. Prats Rodríguez (1) ; PA. Danis (1)
(1) Pôle Irstea - Onema Plans d'Eau, Aix-en-Provence, France

Abstract content

In the Mediterranean area, water is a scarce resource, especially in the summer season. Good management of the resource is thus essential, not only regarding quantitative aspects, but also regarding ecological and water quality. Climate change in the region is expected to result in an increase in air temperature that will affect water temperatures.

Water temperature is an important variable in freshwater ecosystems. It can affect the biology of freshwater organisms in many ways; it can modify vital cycles, physiology, distribution areas, behaviour, etc. In addition, the vertical distribution of heat in a lake or reservoir determines its hydrodynamic behaviour and by extension water quality. The thermal and hydrodynamic behaviour of a reservoir depends on external driving factors (hydrology, meteorology) and internal characteristics of the water body (depth of the inlets and outlets, morphometry, reservoir management). Process-based hydrodynamic models allow investigating the effect of the alteration of these characteristics and are interesting tools to address the effects of climate change in Mediterranean reservoirs and testing possible adaptation actions. In this work, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France). To account for the hydrodynamic model uncertainty, we used two different calibrations: one based on expert judgement, and the other based on the method of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation.

To consider the effect of climate change on the reservoir we simulated the hydrodynamic behaviour of Bimont under the projections obtained during the project CORDEX of three different regional climate models (RCMs) for each of the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projections used were those issued by the models HIRHAM5 and RACMO22, applied to the output of the GCM ICHEC-EC-EARTH; and by the model RCA4, applied to the output of the GCMs ICHEC-EC-EARTH, CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 and MOHC-HadGEM2-ES. We considered two time horizons: medium term (2036-2065) and long term (2066-2095).

We also considered different management options to see which the potentialities of adaptation to climate change are by varying water level, the temporal distribution and quantity of flow through the reservoir, and the outlet depth.

Water temperatures in the reservoir of Bimont are expected to increase during the present century, both in the epilimnion and the hypolimnion. The stratification period will likely become longer. The elevation of the water level results in similar surface water temperatures, and slightly lower hypolimnion temperatures. Some modifications of the reservoir management have potential effects that can be more important than those of climate change.

Impact of climate change on marine and coastal biodiversity: the case of Algeria

O. Rouane Hacene (University of Oran 1, Laboratoire Réseau de Surveillance Environnementale (LRSE), Oran, Algeria)

Abstract details
Impact of climate change on marine and coastal biodiversity: the case of Algeria

O. Rouane Hacene (1)
(1) University of Oran 1, Laboratoire Réseau de Surveillance Environnementale (LRSE), Department of Biology, Oran, Algeria

Abstract content

Known for its arid and semi-arid climate, Algeria is highly prone to climate change. The last 50 years, an increase of events due to extreme weather was observed. Among the phenomena recorded in Climate Studies of the National Meteorology that reflect this change, we observe an increase in the frequency of torrential rains, especially in the highlands, which led to flooding for the first time. Other extreme events that have occurred: cyclogenesis, drought, heat wave and sand storms. Scientists have estimated that rainfall will decrease by about 20 percent in the coming years. They predict a shortening of the rainy season and higher temperatures of about 1° to 1.5° in 2020, which would have fatal consequences for 30 percent of animal species. They also feel that temperatures will rise by 3 ° C by 2050 more due to global warming.

The flora and fauna (terrestrial and marine) have been greatly affected by this increase: the changing environmental conditions are favorable and/or unfavorable to certain environmental factors compared to others, which causes a change of environments and species of flora and fauna that constitute them.

Thus, the coastal areas were severely affected by the climate change. Today, it is permissible, in the light of scientific data to associate with threats to marine biodiversity three important parameters and determinants of climate change: (i) the warming waters, (ii) the elevation the sea level, (iii) water acidification. These changes will surely have consequences in medium and long-term on living marine communities in various ways. Especially that the Algeria includes a rich faunistic and floristic diversity.

According to the fourth national report on the implementation of the Convention on national biodiversity of March 2009, the known marine biodiversity amounts to 3183 species of which 3080 were confirmed after 1980. The marine flora is estimated at 713 species grouped in 71 genera and 38 families. If we add the coastal and island vegetation, marine and coastal bird life, the known total biodiversity of the Algerian coastal marine ecosystem is 4150 species, of which 4014 are confirmed for a total of 950 genera and 761 families. But it should be noted that these numbers do not reflect actual biodiversity but rather the known.

Through this contribution we will present aspects of the consequences of global warming on marine ecosystems and particularly on marine and coastal biodiversity and actions taken by Algeria to remedy this situation.

An epidemiological assessment of stomatal ozone fluxes-based Critical Levels for Southern European forests

P. Sicard (ACRI-HE, Sophia-Antipolis cedex, France), A. De Marco (Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Rome, Italy), L. Dalstein-Richier (GIEFS, Nice, France), E. Paoletti (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Florence, Italy)

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An epidemiological assessment of stomatal ozone fluxes-based Critical Levels for Southern European forests

P. Sicard (1) ; A. De Marco (2) ; L. Dalstein-Richier (3) ; E. Paoletti (4)
(1) ACRI-HE, Environment, Sophia-Antipolis cedex, France; (2) Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development, Rome, Italy; (3) GIEFS, Nice, France; (4) Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto per la protezione sostenibile delle piante, Florence, Italy

Abstract content

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The Southeastern France and Northwestern Italy can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Southern forests are at the highest O3 risk in Europe where ground-level O3 is a pressing sanitary problem for ecosystem health. Exposure-based standards for protecting vegetation are not representative of actual field conditions. A biologically-sound stomatal flux-based standard has been proposed, although critical levels for protection still need to be validated. This innovative epidemiological assessment of forest responses to O3 was carried out in 54 plots in Southeastern France and Northwestern Italy in 2012 and 2013. Three O3 indices, namely the accumulated exposure AOT40, and the accumulated stomatal flux with and without an hourly threshold of uptake (POD1 and POD0) were compared. Stomatal O3 fluxes were modelled (DO3SE) and correlated to measured forest-response indicators, i.e. crown defoliation, crown discoloration and visible foliar O3 injury. Soil water content, a key variable affecting the severity of visible foliar O3 injury, was included in DO3SE. Based on flux-effect relationships, we derived species-specific exposure-based (CLec) and flux-based critical levels (CLef) for forest protection, by joining data from all plots and years. As AOT40 was better correlated with defoliation than with discoloration and visible injury, we selected defoliation as effect parameter for defining AOT40-based CLec values. As a tree with defoliation above 25% is commonly rated as damaged, CLec was calculated on the basis of a threshold of 25% average stand defoliation. As POD0 was better correlated with visible foliar O3 injury than with defoliation and discoloration, we selected visible foliar O3 injury as effect parameter and POD0 as O3 metric for defining PODY-based CLef values. Unfortunately, a definition of damaged tree/stand based on visible foliar O3 injury is missing in the literature. We thus based the selection of a visible foliar O3 injury threshold on a comparison of gas exchange of leaves with a range of visible O3 injury that was carried out in a 3-year-old O3-sensitive poplar plantation. CLef was derived from flux-effect functions for 15% of visible foliar O3 injury (stand level). We obtained CLec of 11.7 ppm.h AOT40 for P. cembra (high O3 sensitivity) and 24 ppm.h for P. halepensis (moderate O3 sensitivity). For broadleaved species, the average CLec was higher than for conifers (23.6 ppm.h AOT40) and similar in the two species with significant correlation between crown defoliation and AOT40, i.e. Fagus sylvatica (moderate O3 sensitivity) and Fraxinus excelsior (high O3 sensitivity). For conifers, CLef of 19 mmol.m-2 for P. cembra and 24 mmol.m-2 for P. halepensis were calculated. For broadleaved species, we obtained a CLef of 21 mmol.m-2 for Fagus sylvatica and of 19 mmol.m-2 for Fraxinus excelsior. To avoid an underestimation of the real O3 uptake, we recommend the use of POD0 calculated for hours with a non-null global radiation over the 24-h O3 accumulation window. We showed that an assessment based on PODY and on real plant symptoms is more appropriated than the concentration-based method. Indeed, POD0 was better correlated with visible foliar O3 injury than AOT40, whereas AOT40 was better correlated with crown discoloration and defoliation (aspecific indicators).

In the current climate change context, a deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in Southeastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+ 0.46-1.08°C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+ 1.95-4.59°C). Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management.

Climate change impacts on water and local adaptation strategies in the Mediterranean: security versus sustainability

I. La Jeunesse (University François Rabelais of Tours, CNRS 7324 Citeres, Tours, France), R. Ludwig (Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU), Munich, Germany), P. Quevauviller (Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Brussels, Belgium), C. Cirelli (University François Rabelais of Tours, CNRS 7324 Citeres, Tours, France)

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Climate change impacts on water and local adaptation strategies in the Mediterranean: security versus sustainability

I. La Jeunesse (1) ; R. Ludwig (2) ; P. Quevauviller (3) ; C. Cirelli (4)
(1) University François Rabelais of Tours, CNRS 7324 Citeres, Geography, Tours, France; (2) Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich (LMU), Institute of geography, Munich, Germany; (3) Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Hydrology and hydrological engineering, Brussels, Belgium; (4) University François Rabelais of Tours, CNRS 7324 Citeres, Cost, Tours, France

Abstract content

Introduction

Climate change is predicted to lead to raising temperatures in the Mediterranean region and reduced rainfall, with possible worsening of water resource shortages that Mediterranean basin is already experiencing. Climate change is thus probably likely to generate tense situations among users. A conservative approach is to believe that changes correspond to situations that have already occurred in the past and that, with a successful management of these conflicts through appropriate integrated water management with local actors, there would be no new challenge in facing these situations. However, in the present state of knowledge on the impact of climate changes, it is now recognized that the chains of causes and effects will lead to different situations. Thus, tools and procedures previously developed, might become obsolete if they are not updated continuously with advances in knowledge about criteria explaining the chain of causes and effects between climate changes, water availability and water uses.

In this context, models undeniably represent an educational support for the dissemination of scientific results in the science-policy interface to develop. But this support needs to rely on the validity of databases, on the moderation of dissemination by experts as close as possible to local stakeholders and last but not least, for Europe, on the common implementation strategy of the water framework directive in coherence with the European and national adaptation strategies and plans.

Methods and Materials

The EU FP7 research program CLIMB, embedded in a cluster of three EU projects (the CLIWASEC cluster) about climate change-water-security, aimed to decrease uncertainties of hydrological modelling in the context of climate changes in the Mediterranean region. For this purpose, CLIMB defined an ensemble of 4 GCM-RCM-combinations to generate climate data to be used by a set of hydrological models implemented at catchment scale for 7 case studies. Two periods have been considered: 1971-1990 as the reference period, and 2041-2070 as the future period. To support the local dissemination of scientific results of CLIMB, interactions with stakeholders have been engaged in the context of a study of water uses and water rivalries.

Results and Discussion

Impacts of climate change on temperatures, precipitations and flows have been described. They essentially affect the availability of water. According to interviewed stakeholders, it is notable that, for the Mediterranean region represented by CLIMB case studies, the main pressure on water resource during the last 20 years has been linked to the population growth and urbanization. The results have also underlined that the terms « climate change » have not been cited by stakeholders during both interviews and open questions in the questionnaires related to threat on water resource. In other words, and considering that climate change is not considered as an issue for the stakeholders, the evolution of rainfalls quantity over the next 20 years is overlooked by them. This confirms the need to continue efforts on disseminating facts and figures about climate change to local water managers.

Conclusion

In the Mediterranean region represented by 7 case studies within the CLIMB project, the main answer to the increase of water demand, without considering climate change as a driving force, has been a progressive transfer of water. It seems that there is no spatial limit to this transfer with respect to national borders.

It has also been spotlighted that all analyzed water management plans mention desalination as an option, both for European case studies and non-European ones. It seems that this represents the next step of water supplying in the Mediterranean region. While these adaptation provide water security, it is not coherent with climate change mitigation or adaptation strategies.

New forms of governance and collective action for agricultural irrigation canal management in southern France: what opportunities in the context of climate change?

C. Aspe (Aix Marseille Université, Marseille, France), M. Jacqué (Aix Marseille Université, Marseille, France)

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New forms of governance and collective action for agricultural irrigation canal management in southern France: what opportunities in the context of climate change?

C. Aspe (1) ; M. Jacqué (1)
(1) Aix Marseille Université, Lped, labexmed, Marseille, France

Abstract content

One of the socio-cultural specificities found on both the north and south shores of the Mediterranean is the ingenuity of local societies for managing water shortages and/or the unequal distribution of water in different areas. In European Mediterranean countries two main types of techniques have developed over the past centuries: either rainwater harvesting via terrace systems or gravity-fed canals supplied by springs and watercourses more broadly. The infrastructure designed and created by Arab societies–which is still used today, particularly in oases–is based for the most part on subsurface irrigation systems for recovering infiltration water; these systems are called quanat, foggara or khettara, depending on the country. Approaches to management in the North and South have created knowledge and know-how and forged what could be called a “culture of water” that can be useful in times of crisis, like that posed by the threat of climate change.

Farmers in the south of France–and in Provence more specifically–have created organisations (ASAs) since the late 19th century that manage issues related to the supply of water and its division; these have also allowed local agriculture to become extremely competitive on international markets, particularly for fruits and vegetables. At the scale of France’s PACA region, there are over 600 ASAs that manage canals and their irrigated perimeter still extends over a very large part of the region's territory. These organisations are experienced in water resource management and their know-how has allowed them to adapt and evolve with changes in Mediterranean irrigation systems (e.g., gravity-fed, overhead and drip irrigation).

This presentation will analyse how maintaining canal-based hydraulic infrastructure is of central importance for perpetuating sustainable farming at the regional scale. For this to occur, ASAs must now accept that the canals they manage also have other uses; their management needs to take into account the multi-functionality of the canals and embrace new challenges which are both environmental and social (replenishing the water table, flood management, promoting the heritage value of the canals, etc.). We will take an historical approach to show how agricultural actors created types of organisations that were both unique and solidarity-based which allowed them to manage droughts and flooding (particularly in the Durance basin). Other forms of multi-actor governance are emerging today: e.g., canal contracts, the signing of bi- or multi-lateral partnership agreements and “Agora” assemblies for the operational governance of water. Such projects are proof of the dynamic thrust of the agricultural profession, but they also raise questions about the funding of such initiatives and therefore their long-term viability.

Adaptive action pathways in rural and urban systems facing the challenges of Mediterranean changing climates: Comparative views of efforts and propositions for Europe and South America

E. Martinez (UCN-CEAZA, Coquimbo, Chile), L. Bascuñán (CEAZA, La Serena, Chile), K. Ruiz-Carrasco (Fac. De Ciencias Agron?micas, Santiago, Chile), A. Berríos (Laboratoire d'Apprentissage, Didactique, Evaluation et Formation, Aix-en-Provence, France)

Abstract details
Adaptive action pathways in rural and urban systems facing the challenges of Mediterranean changing climates: Comparative views of efforts and propositions for Europe and South America

E. Martinez (1) ; L. Bascuñán (2) ; K. Ruiz-Carrasco (3) ; A. Berríos (4)
(1) UCN-CEAZA, Ciencias del Mar, Coquimbo, Chile; (2) CEAZA, Plant physiology, La Serena, Chile; (3) Fac. De Ciencias Agron?micas, Producci?n agrícola, laboratorio de bioinformática y gen?mica funcional, universidad de chile, Santiago, Chile; (4) Laboratoire d'Apprentissage, Didactique, Evaluation et Formation, Sciences de l'education, espe, université d'aix-marseille, Aix-en-Provence, France

Abstract content

Four millions is the car fleet recently recorded in Chile, a South American country inhabited by only 17 million people. This ratio of 23 cars for every 100 persons is causing great circulation problems in Santiago, where one third of the population live but also in smaller towns. Big cities or European agglomerations suffer from similar problems. Concomitantly, our evaluations of social representation among car drivers about individual contribution to Green House Gases (GHG) indicate deep lack of basic knowledge on quantities emitted and on the ways to do effective compensation. This is probably due to our low human sensitive and visual appreciation of GHG and our lesser common knowledge of the effective modes of possible compensations.

In our study we show that in countries with high economic growth, like Chile during the last four decades, social representation of sustainable development in education systems is more associated to economic development than to social or environmental effects. Besides, critical visions on the development models are still much less present, although climate change towards desertification in countries like Chile is equal than that of south Sahel regions.

Finally we argue that connecting GHG compensation strategies to zero carbon agricultural practices could give impressing benefits to new urban and rural development strategies. More conscientiousness of climatic changes will result from strong government decisions, but our authorities must be well informed. The rural-urban connections could be based on existing taxation laws (like car circulation permits in Chile) and incentives to short-distance agro ecological production-consumption agreements (like AMAPSs in France). However further growth of such initiatives would need still stronger governance positions to limit growth of big cities, and to tax all carbon emitting production/consumption chains towards the promotion of changes of our ongoing agricultural and transportation paradigms. Conversely, the constraints to these changes could be counterbalanced by lower costs associated to improvement of poor public health-related parameters, another facet of modern globalization patterns. This statement is supported by the high nutritional value of some crops, like Andean quinoa, that respond well to agro ecological practices and can be cultivated worldwide under extreme climates. Our propositions could be implemented in all Mediterranean regions of the world, for which European and South American ones are good examples. These regions share strong urbanization, loss of biodiversity and migratory patterns among neighbouring countries so that education to have critical positions on these challenges should also be promoted.

Our hope with our vision is to contribute to:

1. More knowledge to take decisions on actions to reduce and to compensate GHG emissions, particularly those concerning agricultural practices and transport (that added are 25% of world emitted GHG).

2. To make this knowledge understandable to the most wide public

3. To link our propositions to sustainable health-care and food chains

4. To give examples of ongoing practices in the mentioned fields, from two distant Mediterranean regions (France and Chile) that are socially sustainable

5. To give education/formation to all publics a central role for making the changes a real possibility

6. To link urban and rural zones to give them hope of new opportunities for sustainable developpment

7. To make all public, from individuals to highest authorities, more sensible to accept the needed changes

We are the first generation (and the last one) that can make the changes. We cannot lose this opportunity. It is everybody's task and everybody's responsibility. We have all communication facilities for making COP21 a source of world's hope not only for future climate based visions but also for building new human societies, where inter-connections can be much more acknowledged.

Accounting for ecological processes changes niche modeling predictions: adaptation of Mediterranean forests to climate change as a model

S. Oddou-Muratorio (INRA, Avignon cedex 9, France), F. Courbet (INRA, Avignon cedex 9, France), B. Fady (INRA, Avignon cedex 9, France), F. Lefèvre (INRA, Avignon cedex 9, France), N. Martin (INRA, Avignon cedex 9, France), E. Rigolot (INRA, Avignon cedex 9, France)

Abstract details
Accounting for ecological processes changes niche modeling predictions: adaptation of Mediterranean forests to climate change as a model

S. Oddou-Muratorio (1) ; F. Courbet (1) ; B. Fady (1) ; F. Lefèvre (1) ; N. Martin (1) ; E. Rigolot (1)
(1) INRA, Research group: ecology of mediterranean forest (urfm - ur 0629)), Avignon cedex 9, France

Abstract content

Bioclimatic niche models predict drastic changes in the geographical distribution of forest species habitats by the end of the 21st century. However, and despite recent advances, they are limited in their ability to account for ecological and demographic processes involved in forest dynamics. In this talk, based on recent interdisciplinary research results in Mediterranean Pinus halepensis - Quercus ilex and Abies albaFagus sylvatica mixed forests, we will show how taking into consideration these processes changes local forest structure and composition as compared to non process-based models. The key processes to be integrated are: migration (dispersal and recruitment), genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity. Migration, because it is constrained, limits the ability of species to track their optimal habitat. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation, on the other hand, facilitate local persistence when habitats become sub-optimal. However, in the Mediterranean, disturbances such as forest fire and insect outbreaks are expected to rise to more frequent and severe levels. These new disturbance regimes may result in demographic, evolutionary and functional tipping points where mortality becomes too massive and reproduction too limited for tree populations to adapt and survive.

Modelling how climate change will impact growth and productivity of evergreen Mediterranean forests using a process-based model and multiproxy data

G. Gea Izquierdo (CEREGE-CNRS, Aix-en_Provence, France), F. Guibal, (IMBE, Aix-en-Provnce, France), R. Joffre, (CEFE, Montpellier, France), J.-M. Ourcival, (CEFE, Montpellier, France), G. Simioni, (INRA, Avignon, France), J. Guiot (CNRS, Aix-en-Provence, France)

Abstract details
Modelling how climate change will impact growth and productivity of evergreen Mediterranean forests using a process-based model and multiproxy data

G. Gea Izquierdo (1) ; F. Guibal, (2) ; R. Joffre, (3) ; JM. Ourcival, (3) ; G. Simioni, (4) ; J. Guiot (5)
(1) CEREGE-CNRS, Aix-en_Provence, France; (2) IMBE, Aix-en-Provnce, France; (3) CEFE, Montpellier, France; (4) INRA, Avignon, France; (5) CNRS, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France

Abstract content

Different physiological processes determine gross primary productivity (GPP) and carbon allocation in relation to environmental forcing. Climatic variability limits these two processes differently and this needs to be properly addressed in process-based forest models. Generally, empirical models have been preferentially used in dendrochronological studies. However, it is necessary to better address the interaction between climate and other factors such as CO2 to properly assess the instability in the climate-growth response expressed by trees and increase the accuracy of the modelled relationships both in forward and inverse models. In this study we developed an existing mechanistic model originally implemented with dendrochronological data. The model was calibrated to fit a combination of eddy covariance CO2 flux data, dendrochronological time series of secondary growth and forest inventory data at two Mediterranean evergreen forests. Among other differences with the original formulation, the model was modified to be climate explicit in the key processes addressing acclimation of photosynthesis and allocation. It succeeded to fit both the high- and the low-frequency response of stand GPP and carbon allocation to the stem as calculated from tree-rings. Simulations suggest a decrease in mean stomatal conductance in response to environmental changes and an increase in mean annual intrinsic water use efficiency in both species during the last 50 years. However, this was not translated on a parallel increase in simulated ecosystem water use efficiency. A long-term decrease in annual GPP matched the local trend in precipitation since the 1970s observed in one site. In contrast, GPP did not show a negative trend and the trees buffered the climatic variability observed at the site where long-term precipitation remained stable. Long-term trends in GPP did not match those in growth, in agreement with the C-sink hypothesis. There is a great potential to use the model with abundant dendrochronological data to analyse future forest performance under climate change and in dendroclimatic reconstructions. This would help to understand how different interfering factors produce divergence in the climatic signal expressed in tree-rings.

 

Modelling blooms of comb jellyfish -Mnemiopsis leidyi -population under Mediterranean climate change

E. Alekseenko (Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Marseille, France), M. Baklouti (Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Marseille, France), F. Carlotti (Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Marseille, France)

Abstract details
Modelling blooms of comb jellyfish -Mnemiopsis leidyi -population under Mediterranean climate change

E. Alekseenko (1) ; M. Baklouti (1) ; F. Carlotti (1)
(1) Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Marseille, France

Abstract content

The massive outburst of gelatinous plankton has important socio-economic impacts particularly affecting tourism, fishing, fish farming, and also impact on the structure of the pelagic ecosystem. Some species are opportunistic invaders that can cause permanent damage to the native fauna. This is particularly the case of comb jellyfish Mnemiopsis leidyi, a kind of gelatinous plankton that can form dense patches and, as a predator of fish larvae and other zooplankton, can have disastrous consequences on fish stocks and other aquatic resources. The potential for outbreaks of this species is based on its growth capacity and high tolerance to environmental conditions particularly considering salinity and temperature, allowing M. leidyi establishment in highly contrasting ecosystems (CIESM, 2014). High numbers of M. leidyi along the Mediterranean coastlines of Israel, Italy, and Spain and other Mediterranean countries (CIESM, 2014) were recorded during the last years. This fact strongly suggests that M. leidyi population is established in the Mediterranean coasts. However the specific causes and mechanisms of M. leidyi development are not well identified, and the lack of data makes any further investigation difficult (Boero, 2013).

Modelling can provide an additional understanding of mechanisms through the definition of the environmental characteristics that could support and/or favor M. leidyi and the description of the associated changes in the planktonic community structure. The aim of the present study is to understand the potential direct (temperature, salinity, nutrient enrichment) and indirect (through food chain changes) impacts of climate changes on M. leidyi blooms in the Gulf of Lions (NW Mediterranean Sea) using the biogeochemical model Eco3M-MED (Baklouti et al., 2006a,b, Alekseenko et al., 2014) coupled with the hydrodynamical model MARS3D (Lazure&Dumas, 2008). A M. leidyi compartment has been introduced in the Eco3M-MED model, in such a way that some of the physiological and demographic traits of this species are represented. A study on M. leidyi physiology and eating behavior has first been conducted with the biogeochemical model. Then, different scenarios have been simulated in order to analyze the role of several environmental parameters, namely, temperature, salinity and nutrient inputs of the Rhone River, on the seasonal variability of M. leidyi and the structure of the trophic web. The study is focused on the period 2009-2011 since the outputs of the model during this period have already been partially validated (Alekseenko et al., 2014).

Acknowledgements

The present research is a contribution to the Labex OT-Med (n° ANR-11-LABX-0061) funded by the French Government «Investissements d’Avenir» program of the French National Research Agency (ANR) through the A*MIDEX project (n° ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02).

References

Alekseenko E., Raybaud V., Espinasse B., Carlotti F., Queguiner B., Thouvenin B., Garreau P., Baklouti M. (2014) Seasonal dynamics and stoichiometry of the planktonic community in the NW Mediterranean Sea: a 3D modeling approach. Ocean Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s10236-013-0669-2.

Baklouti M., Diaz F., Pinazo C., Faure V., Quequiner B. (2006a) Investigation of mechanistic formulations depicting phytoplankton dynamics for models of marine pelagic ecosystems and description of a new model. Prog Oceanogr 71:1–33.

Baklouti M., Faure V., Pawlowski L., Sciandra A. (2006b) Investigation and sensitivity analysis of a mechanistic phytoplankton model implemented in a new modular tool (Eco3M) dedicated to biogeochemical modelling. Prog Oceanogr 71:34–58.

Boero F. (2013) Review of jellyfish blooms in the Mediterranean and Black Sea. General fisheries commission for the Mediterranean, Studies and reviews, N92.

CIESM (2014) Report of the Joint CIESM/ICES Workshop on Mnemiopsis Science (JWMS)

Lazure P., Dumas F. (2008) An external-internal mode coupling for a 3D hydrodynamical model for applications at regional scale (MARS). Adv Water Resour 31(2):233–250.

Statistical and experimental approaches for demonstrating the effect of climate changes on the flowering dates as a road map for tree adaptations in the Mediterranean region

A. El Yaacoubi (Moulay Ismail university, Meknes, Morocco), A. Oukabli (INRA, Meknes, Morocco), M. Hafidi (Moulay Ismail university, Meknes, Morocco), J.-M. Legave (INRA, Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
Statistical and experimental approaches for demonstrating the effect of climate changes on the flowering dates as a road map for tree adaptations in the Mediterranean region

A. El Yaacoubi (1) ; A. Oukabli (2) ; M. Hafidi (1) ; JM. Legave (3)
(1) Moulay Ismail university, Meknes, Morocco; (2) INRA, Meknes, Morocco; (3) INRA, Montpellier, France

Abstract content

In this study two approaches were used to highlight the effect of climate on the tree behavior. The statistical approach was carried out in three geographically contrasting countries of the Mediterranean region. It aims to understand the impact of climate change, particularly the temperature increases, on phonological stage of three taxonomically different species (early and late-spring-flowering species). Three species, namely olive, apple and almond were investigated to highlight the phenological behavior of one species at different locations (mild and cold regions) and different species at one location. Climate and phenological data were collected from Morocco, France and Italy over the last 40 years. The experimental approach was done in mild (Morocco) and temperate (France) areas in the Mediterranean in order to interpret the effect of the climate changes on the dormancy process of trees. In this goal, three cultivars of apple and almond were investigated. In each location, two experimental approaches were used during two successive seasons: one-single cutting test to assess the dormancy in vegetative buds and Tabuenca test for floral buds. The target of combining these approaches is to interpret the wholly tree dormancy behavior in vegetative and floral buds of one species in different regions and different species in the same site. Analysis of data on temperature showed a strong warming in the northern locations (coldest areas), particularly in Nîmes, compared to the southern ones (warmer locations) during the period October to May. The marked spring warming in all locations since the end of 1980s in France (the beginning of 1990s in Italy and Morocco) resulted in blooming earliness, with regional patterns in terms of impact. The late-spring-flowering species (olive and apple) showed a remarkable sensitivity to continuous warming in different areas. No flowering earliness was observed in early-spring-flowering species (almond), due to the stability of mean temperature during February. Thus, a strong control of mean temperature during the forcing period on flowering earliness of apple was found in all areas. Physiological processes (dormancy and dormancy release) of trees during the dormant and growth period explain, in part, the regional differences observed in flowering dates among sites and species. In terms of tree dormancy dynamics, deeper apple dormancy was evinced in the temperate area compared to the mild one, showing a strong correlation with winter temperature. In Morocco, the almond and low-chill apple cultivars seemed to behave similarly, showing low Mean Time of Budburst and permanently high Rate of Budburst. The dates of breaking dormancy approached by fresh and dry masses of floral buds showed the same time of dormancy release on almond cultivars in Morocco. However in apple, the significant increase of masses was earlier in fresh bud mass, while it was later in dry bud masses in both sites. The transition from the endodormant to the ecodormant phase of apple flower buds was distinct in both locations. Mechanisms of solutes importation and utilization by floral buds were different in almond and apple. Overall, the pronounced warming in the southern France reflects a relative trend toward aridity of climate at this site, and consequently some vulnerability of fruit trees. As result, the process of dormancy and flowering in a high latitude locations (northern areas) in the future can be represented by that in a low latitude locations at present (southern areas), particularly for apple. The agronomic consequences caused by global warming are already expressed in the southern areas (floral abortion, heterogeneity and delayed flowering time ...) where the apple cropping is limited only in the upland location (high altitude). In France, ominously, production irregularities related to climate change were frequent during the 2000s. This requires immediate intervention to find some ways of adaptation or improvement as part of a regional strategy to fight against this scourge in context of food security. Creation of new varieties with low chill requirement is a way of improvement and plant breeding while the change of vulnerable crop by others (such as almond well adapted in mild climate areas) is a way of adaptation.

Climate variability, ecosystem response and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (Greece) during the last 1500 years

A. Gogou (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Anavyssos, Greece), M. Triantaphyllou (University of Athens, Athens, Greece), E. Xoplaki (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany), J. Luterbacher (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany), C. Parinos (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Anavyssos, Greece), M. Dimiza (University of Athens, Athens, Greece), I. Bouloubassi (LOCEAN, Paris, France), G. Rousakis (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Anavyssos, Greece), K. Kouli (University of Athens, Athens, Greece), D. Fleitmann (University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom), B. Martrat (IDAEA-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain), A. Izdebski (Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland), H. Kaberi (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Anavyssos, Greece), M. Athanasiou (University of Athens, Athens, Greece), V. Lykousis (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Anavyssos, Greece)

Abstract details
Climate variability, ecosystem response and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (Greece) during the last 1500 years

A. Gogou (1) ; M. Triantaphyllou (2) ; E. Xoplaki (3) ; J. Luterbacher (3) ; C. Parinos (1) ; M. Dimiza (2) ; I. Bouloubassi (4) ; G. Rousakis (1) ; K. Kouli (2) ; D. Fleitmann (5) ; B. Martrat (6) ; A. Izdebski (7) ; H. Kaberi (1) ; M. Athanasiou (2) ; V. Lykousis (1)
(1) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of Oceanography, Anavyssos, Greece; (2) University of Athens, Faculty of geology and geoenvironment, Athens, Greece; (3) Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Geography: Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Giessen, Germany; (4) LOCEAN, Université pierre et marie curie,, Paris, France; (5) University of Reading, Department of archaeology: school of human and environmental sciences, Reading, United Kingdom; (6) IDAEA-CSIC, Barcelona, Spain; (7) Jagiellonian University, Institute of history: byzantine history department, Krakow, Poland

Abstract content

The first high resolution paleoceanographic study of the last 1.5 Ka BP at the northeastern Mediterranean, using organic geochemical, micropaleontological and palynological proxy indices, allowed the recognition of recent climatic changes and ecosystem response during the Dark Ages (DA; 500-900 AD), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 900-1250 AD), Little Ice Age (LIA; 1250-1850 AD) and Instrumental Period (IP; 1850-2010 AD). Multicore M2, retrieved in 2011 from the north Aegean Sea (40°05.15'N, 24°32.68'E, 1018m depth), was sectioned at 0.5 cm intervals, and analyzed for lipid biomarkers (Gogou et al., 2007), coccolithophores (Τriantaphyllou et al., 2009), and pollen assemblages (Τriantaphyllou et al., 2009; Kouli et al., 2012). Stratigraphic framework was based on 210Pb and radiocarbon dating. Past SSTs (mean annual) were reconstructed using the alkenone unsaturation index Uk'37 ((U= C37:2/(C37:2 + C37:3) and the global calibration by Conte et al. (2006). For the estimation of the net primary production (NPP), the equation of Incarbona et al. (2008), NPP = 885.864 + (-138.963 x ln (F. profunda %)), has been used. In addition, the use of the ratio between F. profunda (F) and E. huxleyi (E) abundances: S = F/F+E, is applied as stratification S-index (Τriantaphyllou et al., 2009; Triantaphyllou, 2014). The ratio H=AP/St (AP: Arboreal taxa excluding Pinus; St: Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Asteraceae and Poaceae), has been used as a humidity index (H-index; Kouli et al., 2012).

The SST-record reveals significant variability with marked cool/warm intervals. SSTs increase from 650-1375 AD and then decrease till the late 1600s, except for a warm episode in early 1600s (LIA) with values as high as ~20°C. After a sharp decrease ending at ~1700 AD, SSTs rise at approximately 0.6°C/100 yrs till the present day. Towards the end of DA period, a drop in SST and decrement of terrestrial inputs suggest a tendency towards more arid conditions. The onset of MCA is characterized by an increase in SSTs and elevated terrestrial inputs along with high values for S index between ~1000-1200 AD, characteristic of humid climate conditions, that positively impact the photic zone productivity, due to enhanced nutrients supply from riverine inputs and continental runoffs. The onset of the LIA is marked by an increase in water column stratification between ~1350-1650 AD, and a transition from arid conditions between ~1250-1400 AD to humid conditions after ~1400 AD. Finally, the IP is characterized by a significant rise in SSTs along with enhanced terrestrial inputs and algal productivity in the euphotic zone.

Atmospheric modes of variability play an important role on surface water heat fluxes that in turn have consequences on the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation, in particular during winter when cold winds cause important heat loss and stratification breakdown. Because of the tight coupling with the atmospheric forcing, the sampling area has proven ideally situated to investigate the coupling of paleooceanographic conditions with major atmospheric circulation patterns. Finally, a historical approach has been applied, in order to explore the complex interactions between climate, environment and human activity in the north Aegean region.

 

 

 

 

Adaptation Measures in Dryland Ecosystem: Management of Scarce Water Resources for Rehabilitation of Degraded Lands in Arid and Semi-arid Region of Southern Pakistan

S. I. Khan (Pakistan Forest Institute, Islamabad, Pakistan)

Abstract details
Adaptation Measures in Dryland Ecosystem: Management of Scarce Water Resources for Rehabilitation of Degraded Lands in Arid and Semi-arid Region of Southern Pakistan

SI. Khan (1)
(1) Pakistan Forest Institute, Range Management, Islamabad, Pakistan

Abstract content

Drylands in southern Pakistan are home to communities living in poverty and depending on livestock rearing for their livelihood. The subsistence agriculture is losing its importance under the effects of climate change i.e. uncertain rainfall and very low productivity. Due to increasing population of livestock, the pressure on silvo-pastures is increasing resulting in degradation of natural resources and loss of soil fertility, a fact that adversely affects the livelihood of communities. The Farm Forestry Support Project (FFSP) of the Intercooperation (IC) and Swiss Agency for Development & Cooperation (SDC), initiated rehabilitation work in 2003 in extreme dry region of Karak using the silvo-pastoral system with hillside ditches and sand dune stabilization techniques. The objective was to recover vegetation and increase productivity of the area with minimum cost and hence support livelihoods. The activity was carried out with participation of civil society organizations and farmers’ associations.

 

The results recorded in 2008 showed a profuse plant growth in terms of trees, shrubs and grasses with a potential to provide timber, fuel wood and fodder for livestock. Maximum harvesting of rainwater and conservation of moisture also resulted in growth of natural grasses and shrubs. Within a short period of 5 years, plant growth in height and diameter of 6 meters and 20 centimeters respectively was recorded. The average vegetation cover of 45% and increase in soil organic mater and nitrogen content was also recorded. All this happened with a minimum cost of US$ 82 per hectare. The rejuvenation of wells in few cases was an additional positive affect of the activity. On the other hand, an annual income of US$ 735 per hectare from Saccharum spontaneum planted in sand dunes was a real benefit to farmers against the other land-uses in dry sand dunes.

Local practices of reducing vulnerability, and securing livelihoods in the age of climate change: Lesson learned from the analysis of community adaptation plans and practices in Nepal

D. R. Uprety (Multi Stakeholder Forestry Programme (MSFP), Kathmandu, Nepal)

Abstract details
Local practices of reducing vulnerability, and securing livelihoods in the age of climate change: Lesson learned from the analysis of community adaptation plans and practices in Nepal

DR. Uprety (1)
(1) Multi Stakeholder Forestry Programme (MSFP), Climate change and Forestry, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract content

About 25% of the total populations in Nepal live under the poverty line (less than 1.25USD/day) and the country is ranked one of the 5th climate vulnerable countries around the world. Flash floods and landslides, loss of biodiversity, decline in agricultural productivity, increase of invasive species and depletion of fresh water resources are some major vulnerability resulted from the climate change and pushing the lives and livelihoods of over 1.9 million households at risk. Responding to these climates induced adversities, the local communities have started making their adaptation plans (more than 1500) in partnership with growing development institutions at local level. The paper is based on the studies of more than 1000 local adaptation plans, field observation and interaction with more than 500 communities in between 2011 to 2015. The paper analyses of the major vulnerabilities identified in different adaptation plans, local practices of responding these vulnerabilities, tradeoff between growing vulnerabilities, and securing livelihoods challenges through the analysis of the 1000 community adaptation plans in Nepal.

Mitigation & Adaptation experiences of farmers to drought in Semi-arid region of India

B. Nagaraja (Bangalore University, Bangalore, Karnataka, India), B. Krishnakanth, (Bangalore university, Bangalore, India)

Abstract details
Mitigation & Adaptation experiences of farmers to drought in Semi-arid region of India

B. Nagaraja (1) ; B. Krishnakanth, (2)
(1) Bangalore University, Environmental Sciences, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; (2) Bangalore university, Environmental sciences, Bangalore, India

Abstract content

Climate change is predicted to have severe consequences on agriculture and the rural poor in South Asia and Africa. Given that approximately three-fifths of the cultivated area in South Asia is rain-fed, the onset, duration, spatial extent, and total precipitation of the monsoon are critical factors in determining the livelihoods of large majority of people in rural areas. The arid regions of India cover an area of 317,090 km and is exclusively depend on rain-fed crops, even modest alteration in the intensity, frequency and timing of rainfall should cause consternation to large section of farming community. Karnataka state in south India ranks second, next only to Rajstahan in India, in terms of total geographical area prone to drought. Among its 30 districts, 18 are drought prone. During 2001-02 and 2002-03 the state faced consecutive droughts; this severally affected the farmer’s livelihood. The present study has been visualized to assess the vulnerability and adaptations experiences of poor farmers to repeated droughts in semi-arid regions of Karnataka.

 

The drought affected regions of Karnataka recorded lower crop yields and consequent increased povertylevels in the region. The repeated droughts have lead to over exploitation of ground water besides increased in fire incidences in arid and semi-arid regions. The two districts of Karnataka (Raichur and Koppal) each belonging to severely affected categories and representing arid climatic condition.  The drought affected regions of Karnataka recorded lower crop yields and consequent increased poverty levels in the region. The repeated droughts have lead to over exploitation of ground water besides increased in fire incidences in semi-arid regions. The annual income of the households reduced to half in drought years. The reduction was more in case of the crops followed by labour. In this regard Karnataka state established disaster management authority to undertake mitigation and adoption measures in the region.

The case studies in semi-arid region of Karnataka offer a valuable complement to the macro profile by revealing insights on the determinants of vulnerability at the individual or community levels. Numerous physical and socio-economic factors come into play in enhancing or constraining the current capacity of farmers to cope with adverse changes. Prominent among the physical factors are cropping patterns, crop diversification, and shifts to drought-/salt-resistant varieties. The most important socio-economic factors include ownership of assets (like land, cattle, pump-sets, and agricultural implements), access to services (like banking, health, and education), and infrastructural support (like irrigation, markets, and transport/communication networks). From the last few decades, a growing incidence of seasonal migration is occurring in northern part of Karnataka due to the lack of livelihoods and fodder availability.

The climate change adaptation (CCA) policy approach has also been fragmented, with climate change strategies and plans not strongly linked with existing agricultural policies in the region.  The present study documented traditional knowledge of the farmers on climate change mitigation and adaptation, which will help to evolve a policy and shape future research on climate resilient agriculture in semi-arid region of South India.  The National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture speaks of attaining “ecologically Sustainable Agricultural Growth through progressive Adaptation and Mitigation. While the noises are sound, the mission still emphasizes the role of bio-technology. The Policy concern is that Growth is linked to extracting a monetary value out of the system, whereas the principle of sustainable practices, means that the outputs, inputs into the system, which is the principle of ecological farming. Whereas bio-technology options tends to be patented means of extracting rents out of discovery.  The complex and multidimensional nature of drought in India requires a long term, well organized and coordinated research plan and action involving all the stakeholders. The present study aims to highlight the ongoing efforts of farmers groups, government and Non-government organization in evolving ecosystem-based mitigation and adaptations strategies for the region.  

Measuring Vulnerability of a region in Indonesia

Y. Tjoe (Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia)

Abstract details
Measuring Vulnerability of a region in Indonesia

Y. Tjoe (1)
(1) Griffith University, International Business and Asian Studies, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Abstract content

For many rural households in Indonesia, yields from subsistence production are the main source of food to maintain their health and livelihoods. The livelihoods of households in dryland West Timor are expected to be affected by climate change due to their dependence on rainwater for their subsistence production. Due to the subsequent poor rainfall and low crop yield, some of the households have begun to adapt to broader modern employment and modified their income sources with males taking up external cash-employment; such as temporary labour in the construction or plantation fields at local cities or overseas. Is this pathway of income adaptation sustainable, compared to the subsistence-based corn farming and traditional forms of livelihood? 

This paper investigates factors that contribute to the livelihood vulnerability of the subsistence households to drought. The five major factors include EDU (Education), SCP (Social-Cultural Participation), FS (Food Store), IA (Income through management of agricultural production) and ACC (Access). Primary data are collected through a household survey conducted in three villages of West Timor (total sample 627). Data gathered are then used to produce a vulnerability index, using the following equation:

LVI_v=WEDU EDUv + WSCP SCPv + WFS FSv + WIA IAv + WACC ACCv

                           WEDU+ WSCP+ WFS+WIA+WACC

 

LVIv= Livelihood Vulnerability Index for village v

WMi= weight of each major components (e.g. WEDU is the weight of Education)

Mci = average value of major component (e.g. EDUv is the average value of Education)

The Probit analysis is then performed to investigate the relationship between "perceptions of households about causes of drought” and “their readiness to better equip themselves for the future drought or other disasters”.

Where Cause_1i is type of cause: ‘It has been like this all the time’ = 1; otherwise = 0

Cause_2i is type of cause: ‘I don’t know why’ = 1; otherwise = 0

Cause_3i is type of cause: ‘God’s Plan’ =1; otherwise = 0

Cause_4i is type of cause: ‘Manmade’ = 1; otherwise = 0

Statistical reliability and validity, and factor analysis are conducted using SPSS 22. 

The results show that ACC (access to water, local market and health centre), SCP (social and cultural activities), and IA (income through management of agricultural production) are all significantly correlated with a household’s vulnerability to drought. Households are less vulnerable when they have better access, agricultural incomes, and when they and their children are actively involved in local agricultural and ritual activities. A poorer access to market and schools may also contribute to increasing household’s vulnerability as the youth have to leave the village and stay at urban area for employment or education purposes. Combining all five factors, the overall vulnerability index for individual village shows that the further the village is to urban area (Kupang or Soe) the more vulnerability it is. The furthest village has the highest score (0.503), while the closest village scores 0.234.

Furthermore, the results of Probit analysis show that the tendency to take precautionary measures to anticipate drought and other disasters is related to the perception about the cause of disasters. Households tend to have no planned alternatives such as saving money or preparing water storage in the house when they believe that Gold’s plan or manmade are the cause of drought and other disasters. 

The paper concludes that the temporary participation in broader modern employment may be an alternative for the households to cope with short-term impacts of drought and low crop yield. However, the social-cultural participation, which maintains local ritual and belief, provides long-term sustainable pathway for dryland ecosystem as it helps to regenerate local knowledge system and conserve the use of natural resources. Future adaption should aim to increase household awareness of the importance of proactive saving (water and money), and to improve infrastructures that help sustain both existing economic and social-cultural activities.

Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict and the Conflict Trap along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

E. Gilmore (University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States of America), H. Hegre, (Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden), J. Nordkvelle, (Peace Research Institute,Oslo, Oslo, Norway), S. Waldhoff, (Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL, College Park, United States of America)

Abstract details
Forecasting Armed Civil Conflict and the Conflict Trap along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

E. Gilmore (1) ; H. Hegre, (2) ; J. Nordkvelle, (3) ; S. Waldhoff, (4)
(1) University of Maryland, School of Public Policy, College Park, MD, United States of America; (2) Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; (3) Peace Research Institute,Oslo, Oslo, Norway; (4) Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL, College Park, United States of America

Abstract content

We investigate how “conflict trap” dynamics, specifically through reduced economic growth as a result of armed conflict, may lead to new and more persistent conflicts over the century. Intrastate conflict has widespread impacts on socioeconomic development. Importantly, conflict depresses economic productivity which in turn lowers the opportunity costs for renewed conflict. Further, economic impacts may be further exacerbated by climate change. To examine how these dynamics may evolves as a function of different expectations of economic growth, we generate our projections along the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed by the climate change community to evaluate the impacts of climate change and policy.

To develop our projections, we first generate a model where armed conflict and economic growth are endogenous. We estimate the reduction in GDP per capita from the incidence of conflict, the duration and the effect of neighboring countries in conflict as well as the post conflict recovery using historical data. Second, we use a simulation approach to project the onset, incidence and termination of armed conflict along the five alternative economic scenarios represented by the SSPs, revising the GDP projections for conflict.

We find that the projections of armed conflict are a strong function of the assumptions about economic growth. Scenarios lower GDP growth over the course of the century experience higher propensities for armed conflict. Adjusting the expected GDP growth for armed conflict worsens the expectations, especially for regions which already experience conflict. As the projected damages from climate change increase in severity, the ability to update the SSPs for these impacts will be become more important for evaluating the full range of damages over time.

Fighting food insecurity and alleviating poverty in the face of climate change through rice-growing in Tonga-Cameroon

C. Tchieudjo (The University of Yaounde I, The Faculty of Arts, Letters and Social Sciences, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon)

Abstract details
Fighting food insecurity and alleviating poverty in the face of climate change through rice-growing in Tonga-Cameroon

C. Tchieudjo (1)
(1) The University of Yaounde I, The Faculty of Arts, Letters and Social Sciences, Department of Geography, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon

Abstract content

This study focused primarily on the different actors involved in the rice production in Tonga (Western Cameroon) and strategies set to boost its cultivation, and it brought up some suggestions to the various problems that tend to weaken the activity. Preserving and enhancing food security requires agricultural production systems to increase productivity and to reduce output variability in the face of climate change and other agro-ecological and socio-economic risks. Cameroon, a low-income food-deficit country (LIFDC), has made agriculture a condition of its development. But the 2007’s riots, coupled with the food prices soaring, deeply raise the double problem in the fight against food insecurity and poverty. The objective was to investigate the role played by the rice-growing activity in Tonga in the fight against food insecurity and poverty. Rice production in Tonga is on the rise because of its natural assets and good quality of the rice cultivated in the locality. To test our hypotheses, we used Quivy Campenhoudt and Van (2006) and Thiétart (1999) methods ranging from field investigation (enquiries to relevant stakeholders, on-the-spot assessment), sampling techniques, to data collection and processing. These methods have demonstrated that rice-growing contributes about 80% to the fight against food insecurity and alleviate poverty in Tonga. These findings could contribute to the improvement of the living conditions of rural populations in Tonga. However, to reverse the trend of rice consumption in Cameroon overall, it is necessary to move from family/traditional farming to industrial/modern agriculture on which the population could sustainably rely to improve their living conditions. The Cameroonian government through the Agricultural Sector Development Program (PADFA) provides different supports to farmers to eradicate hunger and poverty, and finally ensure a brighter future for rice growing. New challenges and technological opportunities for rice-based production systems for food security and poverty alleviation are then needed.

Do agroecological practices decrease farmers' vulnerability to climate change? Insights from the Mediterranean wine industry in France and Australia

A.-L. Lereboullet (Université Paris-Diderot, UMR Prodig, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Do agroecological practices decrease farmers' vulnerability to climate change? Insights from the Mediterranean wine industry in France and Australia

AL. Lereboullet (1)
(1) Université Paris-Diderot, UMR Prodig, Paris, France

Abstract content

 This research aimed to determine factors that impact farmers' vulnerability to climate change with a focus on Mediterranean viticulture, a crop particularly sensitive to changes in climatic conditions and increasingly exposed to water stress. Vulnerability was conceptualized here as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. In particular, we examined the role played by agroecological farming practices on farmers’ sensitivity to recent climatic events and on their capacity to adapt to long term climate change. Agroecology can be defined as a set of practices that aim for sustainable productive systems in terms of environment (resource preservation), economy (income improvement) and society (rural development). Such practices are varied and context dependant, and generally include biodiversity preservation, increasing resource-use efficiency, and limiting chemical inputs. We formulated the hypothesis that agroecological practices could be a generic driver to reduce vulnerability, but implemented differently according to socioeconomic, cultural and political contexts. We thus compared two regions with a similar -Mediterranean- climate, Roussillon in France and McLaren Vale in Australia, but with contrasting production backgrounds, and we tested whether agroecological practices had an impact on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change, and to what extent their impact and implementation was dependent on the local context.

 

We used a mixed-methods approach combining analyses of discourse and of climate data. Between 2011 and 2013, we led 69 in-depth semi-structured interviews with producers and key regional stakeholders (37 in Roussillon, 32 in McLaren Vale). Interviews were designed to provide insights on the way producers had dealt with droughts and heatwaves in the last two decades, and how they perceived the future of their activity in a context of climate change. Interview results were confronted to climate data obtained from Perpignan (Roussillon) and Adelaide Airport (McLaren Vale) weather stations, and modeled for the future decades by ARPEGE-Météo France (Roussillon, SCRATCH10-RETIC V4 dataset, 8 km resolution) and CSIRO-Mk3.5 (McLaren Vale, 10 km resolution). Agroecological practices were evaluated as a gradient, from those following organic and/or biodynamic principles, with (level 1) or without (level 2) official certification, those applying some principles according to their current objectives (agriculture raisonnée, or low-input agriculture) (level 3), to those applying little of these principles (levels 4 and 5).

 

We found that the use of agroecological practices was associated with a reduced vulnerability to climate change, through reduced sensitivity and increased adaptive capacity. Practices commonly implemented in the two vineyards studied were: the following of organic/biodynamic principles, the use of compost and tillage, the reduction or stop of herbicide use, and the use of alternative weed control such as sheep. Level 1 and level 2 producers showed a reduced sensitivity to extreme events from the last decade, such as the consecutively hot and dry summers between 2003 and 2009 in Roussillon, and the three heatwaves that hit McLaren Vale in 2008 and 2009. According to models used, such climatic conditions are likely to become the norm until the 2040’s, and gain in frequency and magnitude during the second part of the 21st century. Those producers were also more personally involved in the development of their farm, which they tended to perceive as a component of a wider regional productive system. Their implication in transforming practices towards greater sustainability was associated with a long-term vision of regional development and with optimistic entrepreneurship, which often lacked among level 4 and 5 producers. Also, the close attention that levels 1 and 2 gave to their fields seemed to outgrow the fact that coping better with recent extreme events could minimize the motivation to envision climate change as a pressing issue. Despite the fact that agroecological practices tend to maximize the multifunctionality of the two areas studied –a principle valued by the European Union–, their implementation appeared easier in the Australian than in the French region, due a limitative economic, cultural and legislative context in the latter.

Adaptation of smallholder farmers to climate change in the tropical Andes

O. Dangles (IRD, Quito, Ecuador), C. Carpio (ESPOCH, RIOBAMBA, Ecuador)

Abstract details
Adaptation of smallholder farmers to climate change in the tropical Andes

O. Dangles (1) ; C. Carpio (2)
(1) IRD, Quito, Ecuador; (2) ESPOCH, Cedeterra, RIOBAMBA, Ecuador

Abstract content

In recent years, the precarious state of food production systems has become a focus of attention of scientists, policy bodies, and corporations face to a growing number of challenges including uncertainties and risks associated with climate change, unprecedented price hikes for basic food, and agricultural intensification. In the tropical Andes, climate and habitat changes are considered to be one of the most serious threats to sustainable development, with adverse impacts expected on the environment, human health, economic activity and food security. Over the last decade, the Andes have also experience socio-economic and institutional changes that have increased the pressure on natural resources, weakened the internal social organization and caused cultural erosion in the Andean society, reducing the capacities of populations to overcome them.

Global climate change represents a major threat to sustainable farming in the tropical Andes. Farmers have used local ecological knowledge and intricate production systems to cope, adapt and reorganize to meet climate uncertainty and risk, which have always been a fact of life. Those traditional systems are generally highly resilient, but the predicted effects, rates and variability of climate change may push them beyond their range of adaptability.

This presentation summarizes 10 years of studies performed by our group within a transdsciplinary (from social sciences to ecological sciences to earth sciences) and multi-methodology frameworks (from landscape suveys by drones to agent based modeling to participatory research). It examines the extent of actual and potential impacts of climate variability and change on small-scale farmers and describes how climate change impacts agriculture through two main study case: 1) the consequences of deglaciation and changes in hydrology on biodiversity and land users in high altitude pastures (bofedales) of Bolivia (see www.biothaw.ird.fr) and 2) the effect of temperature variability on the control of pest and disease populations in crop lansdcapes of Ecuador (see www.manpest.ird.fr).

The presentation highlights some promising adaptive strategies currently in use by or possible for producers, rural communities and local institutions to mitigate climate change effects while preserving the livelihoods and environmental and social sustainability of the region. In particular, it presents how the concept of adaptive management, "a systematic process for continually improving management policies and practices by learning from the outcomes of previously employed policies and practices", may provide mechanisms to adjust to change and uncertainty related to climate change.

Farm level adaptation to drought: the case of maize production in Shanxi province, China

K. De Bruin (CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo), Oslo, Norway), S. Glomsrød (CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo), Oslo, Norway), T. Wei (CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo), Oslo, Norway)

Abstract details
Farm level adaptation to drought: the case of maize production in Shanxi province, China

K. De Bruin (1) ; S. Glomsrød (1) ; T. Wei (1)
(1) CICERO (Center for International Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo), Climate economics, Oslo, Norway

Abstract content

Changes in temperature and precipitation will impact food production across the global. The latest IPCC AR5 WG1 assessment report states that although there is low confidence in global-scale observed trends in drought, there are regional changes, such as the weakening of the East Asian summer monsoon which in turn has led to increasing drought in northern China. Shanxi province, located in the north of China, is one of the most vulnerable provinces to be impacted by drought, especially impacting maize production.

 

Within the research programme on climate change and Chinese agriculture we assess the impacts and costs to agriculture associated with expected change in risk of extreme events on maize production in Shanxi province. We investigate how local adaptation to climate change through the implementation of adaptation options reduces the vulnerability of farmers. Uncertainty about the extent of the impact of climate change on drought risk calls for flexibility regarding the implementation of adaptation options. Where one should avoid over-investment in case damages increase less than expected while at the same time facilitating proportionate adaptation if damages become higher than expected.

 

The objective of the paper is to show how drought risk affects the decision to invest in adaptation options. We conduct an extended cost-benefit analysis to address adaptation challenges of farmers in Shanxi province by simulating farmer’s investment decisions on resources allocation and adaptation options under uncertain climate change impacts in order to maximize income and reduce the impact of an extreme event on crop production. The costs and benefits of three different adaptation options are considered, namely the implementation of drip irrigation, change of crop variety, and change of crop. Our case study of adaptation at the farm level in Shanxi province provides insights into the nexus between economic decision-making, climate change and adaptation in the agricultural sector.

Spatial Information Technology (SIT) based Land Sustainability Management through Suitability Analysis in Kansachara Sub-watershed, Bankura and Puruliya district, West Bengal, India

K. Bera (Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, India), J. Bandyopadhyay, (Vidyasagar University, Kolkata, India)

Abstract details
Spatial Information Technology (SIT) based Land Sustainability Management through Suitability Analysis in Kansachara Sub-watershed, Bankura and Puruliya district, West Bengal, India

K. Bera (1) ; J. Bandyopadhyay, (2)
(1) Vidyasagar University, Remote Sensing & GIS, Midnapore, India; (2) Vidyasagar University, Remote sensing & gis, Kolkata, India

Abstract content

Soil is one of the most important non renewable natural resources and soil fertility is its crucial component for land sustainability. Now it is being increasingly emphasized for village level planning. Prosperity of agriculture of any region depends on physical and chemical properties of soil. SIT can play a very effective role in soil fertility analysis for land sustainable management.

The study is an attempt to identify the suitability areas of some alternative crops namely Maize, Barley, Millets, Paddy (Upland and Bunded), Potato, Papaya, Sunflower, Groundnut, Sorghum, Pigeon, Chickpea and Sesame etc. The suitable land were identify based on the land capability. Land capability area ware identify proposed by Tejwani et al. (1976) method. The land capability is categorized into two sub class i.e. i) Land fit for cultivation ii) Land not suitable for cultivation. Both the land is management by different ways.

The study concluded that the cultivable land management is done on the basis of knowledge of crop suitability followed by SYS method for maximum benefit of the farmers. On the other hand non cultivable land is management by applying 1. Grass Land, 2. Conservation Forestry, 3. Horticulture and 4. Animal husbandry.

Grape growing : a symbolic marker of climate evolution and a model to study adaptation

N. Ollat (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), I. Garcia De Cortazar-Atauri (INRA, Avignon, France), C. Van Leeuwen (Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Villenave d'Ornon, France), E. Duchêne (INRA, Colmar, France), P. Pieri (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), H. Quenol (CNRS- UMR6554 LETG, Rennes, France), B. Bois (Université de Bourgogne, Dijon, France), G. Barbeau (INRA, Angers, France), P. Vivin (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), E. Lebon (INRA, Montpellier, France), J. P. Goutouly (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), H. Ojeda (INRA, Gruissan, France), L. De Resseguier (Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Villenave d'Ornon, France), E. Neethling (INRA, Angers, France), J.-M. Boursiquot (Montpellier Supagro, Montpellier, France), J.-M. Touzard (INRA, Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
Grape growing : a symbolic marker of climate evolution and a model to study adaptation

N. Ollat (1) ; I. Garcia De Cortazar-Atauri (2) ; C. Van Leeuwen (3) ; E. Duchêne (4) ; P. Pieri (1) ; H. Quenol (5) ; B. Bois (6) ; G. Barbeau (7) ; P. Vivin (1) ; E. Lebon (8) ; JP. Goutouly (1) ; H. Ojeda (9) ; L. De Resseguier (3) ; E. Neethling (7) ; JM. Boursiquot (10) ; JM. Touzard (11)
(1) INRA, EGFV, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (2) INRA, Agroclim, Avignon, France; (3) Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Egfv, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (4) INRA, Svqv, Colmar, France; (5) CNRS- UMR6554 LETG, Université Rennes 2, Rennes, France; (6) Université de Bourgogne, Centre de recherches de climatologie / biogeosciences, Dijon, France; (7) INRA, Uvv, Angers, France; (8) INRA, Lepse, Montpellier, France; (9) INRA, Domaine de pech rouge, Gruissan, France; (10) Montpellier Supagro, Agap, Montpellier, France; (11) INRA, Montpellier, France

Abstract content

Grapevine has been domesticated 8 to 10 000 year ago in Eurasia. From there, grapevine growing and wine making have expanded to the European-Asian-North African continents, and more recently to the so-called “new world”. It is still one of the major high value fruit crops in the world. The capacity of this crop to colonize new spaces since ancient periods, facing a full range of climates, demonstrates its ability to adapt to various climatic conditions. In traditional growing zones, cultivars and human practices have been selected in order to take the best benefit from the environment to elaborate specific or unique wines. The balance between environmental conditions, cultivars and management practices within a specific location, referred to as the “terroir” concept (according to OIV definition), is used to market wines and increase their economic value. However current climate change may endanger this equilibrium. Considering these aspects, grape and wine industry may be considered as a model to study adaptation to climate change. It is the scope of a French project, named Laccave reported hereafter.

The close link of grapevine phenology with climate is demonstrated through successful reconstruction of past climate trends from harvest dates. Several studies show that process-based phenological models can accurately be used to calculate past temperatures and detect anomalies. Additional information on cultivars, wine styles and produced wine quality as well as viticultural in different wine regions may help to build more robust models at local scales. Phenological models have also been used to assess the future growing conditions by using climate simulations. For example, these studies show that an advance of 30 to 40 days for major phenological stages may be expected in France at the end of the XXIth century. Consequently, most varieties are expected to ripen at increasingly warmer conditions, impacting fruit composition and wine types elaborated from these grapes.

These changes are already noticeable in existing vineyards with a recorded advance of 2 to 3 weeks for harvest dates over the last 20 years. Increased sugar contents, lower acidity levels and modified aroma and polyphenolic composition have been observed. The suitability of actual growing zones may be seriously affected in the future and new regions may become appropriate. Cultivated areas in Great Britain have more than doubled in 25 years and vines are now grown in Sweden and Poland. Nevertheless the concept of suitability has to be taken with caution and large scale studies can lead to erroneous conclusions for local situations. Local climatic variability, adaptation of cultural and oenological practices and plasticity of cultivars may enlarge the limits of suitability. An international study is on the way to characterize and model thermal variability at local scale within grapevine growing regions in order to define the parameters of climate variability and the most suitable areas for the future.

It is clearly shown that local temperature variability within growing areas can be in the same range as variability between regions or several years and have to be taken into account for defining adaptation strategies. Altitude and exposition are key parameters. In each location, most suitable varieties to new climatic conditions can be chosen among traditional ones, but also within the large diversity existing among Vitis vinifera spp cultivars. Rootstocks bred from a larger range of Vitis spp background may also contribute to adaptation. Cultural practices such as canopy or soil management need to be taken into account as well as local variations in soil types. Irrigation can be an answer to severe water deficits but in the long run competition for water resources and increased soil salinity may become major problems. Alternative water sources, as retreated waste water, can be considered but their impacts on the environment and on wine quality have to be considered. Other disruptive innovations have to be invented. Growers and actors need to be associated to the process of defining strategies of adaptation. Their perception and the organization of innovation dissemination within the industry are key issues in this approach of adaptation. The research conducted within the Laccave project participates to the definition of these strategies and describes the mutual contribution of human and natural resources. It will be presented, based on examples from French vineyards.

The Important of Preservations and Distributions of Milk in respect to the Different Weather Changes in Federal Capital Territory Areas of Abuja, Nigeria

M. Oke (Michael Adedotun Oke Foundation, Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
The Important of Preservations and Distributions of Milk in respect to the Different Weather Changes in Federal Capital Territory Areas of Abuja, Nigeria

M. Oke (1)
(1) Michael Adedotun Oke Foundation, International Development, Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

This paper look at the  important of the preservation  and the  distribution of milk  in  respect to the  different weather, during the dry and wet seasons and how does it affect the level of consumption , tastes , marketing strategies , mode of preservation and the different methodology being use in preservation's of the milk products  and the various problems being encountered in the process . The research was conducted in two areas council of the Federal Capital Territory namely Gwagwalada   and the Municipal . The Findings shows that weather changes have a great impacts in taste level of consumptions of an individuals that consumes it, it have impact in the areas of transportation during the raining seasons  most Fulani’s women finds it difficult to convey their milk products because of bad roads in most of the rural areas  , cost price, the level of milking of animal is high in the raining seasons due to the much of grasses  and indirectly affect the rate of measurement, cost reduces   in getting ice blocks for  preservation of  the milk and during the raining seasons , less efforts is needed because of the cold weather , which serves as preservation's . Some industries   make use of chemical, good bottling technology   which  they are using  in the process and the use of ice block were done when about the point of sales  to the people  by the Fulani’s  women who sales to an individual’s  that consumes it.   Oral interview were conducted, group discussion were made with the Different questionnaires   which  were administer and analyzed to the sellers   of milk  products  and  consumables  respectively to ascertain the findings and pictures were taken to support.

 

Sustainable Agriculture a An ecosystem based approach for climate change adaptation for food security- a case study from an Afican Small island Developing State

B. Lalljee (University of Mauritius, Moka, Mauritius)

Abstract details
Sustainable Agriculture a An ecosystem based approach for climate change adaptation for food security- a case study from an Afican Small island Developing State

B. Lalljee (1)
(1) University of Mauritius, Agriculture and Food Science, Moka, Mauritius

Abstract content

Sustainable Agriculture as an ecosystem based approach for climate change adaptation for food security – case study from an African Small Island Developing State

Climate change is undeniably affecting all spheres of human life including food security. The impacts of climate change are felt more by the Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States (SIDS). SIDS are considered as special group of countries as per the United Nations, because their smallness and remoteness makes them more vulnerable to food insecurity issues, which are compounded by the adverse effects of climate change. Livelihoods and food security of small farmers in sub-Saharan Africa are seriously threatened by climate change and this is negatively impacting on agricultural production and productivity. Climate change is not limited only to increasing temperature, rainfall pattern, soil water availability, intensity and frequency of extreme events, but also encompasses overall perturbation of the ecosystem, all of which influence food production.

The ecosystem based adaptation (EBA) approach to food production and food security assumes greater importance in the SIDS, which have very fragile and unique ecosystems. The use of sustainable agricultural technologies represent one such EBA approach, and which includes measures such as mulching, minimum tillage, multiple cropping, use of soil conditioners such as compost, use of agroforestry systems, etc. Adaptation is not to be considered as a stop-action, but rather as a process. Adaptation of agriculture to climate change is adjustments of the agricultural system to reduce vulnerability and increase resilience. The agricultural system has to undergo continuous changes.

This paper discusses the positive effects of a package of sustainable agriculture technologies, composed of mulching, minimum tillage and use of compost as plant nutrient sources, to food production. Three locally available mulches were investigated, namely banana leaves, coconut leaves and vetiver leaves, at three different rates. Minimum tillage, use of compost, and reduced fertiliser application were the other components of the package. The package was tested and validated in farmers’ fields in the island of Rodrigues of the Republic of Mauritius. The beneficial effects were increase in soil moisture, a more uniform and stable soil temperature, improvement in soil biodiversity, control of weeds and other pests, increase in the yields of maize and beans. Furthermore, soil health and fertility was enhanced, in terms of properties such as pH, electrical conductivity, organic matter, water holding capacity, porosity, NPK levels, bacterial and fungal counts.

 The project also included an important aspect of capacity building. Farmers were trained on compost making from agricultural and kitchen wastes, on the use of cover cropping, for soil moisture, for weed and pest control, minimum tillage (time and frequency), soil and water conservation measures, rainwater and runoff water harvesting. The training also included an understanding of the barriers to EBA, in particular the multiple functions and services of ecosystems, ecosystem goods and services, ecosystem evaluation, as well as a lack of strong policy drivers behind EBA to climate change issues.

A stakeholder participatory approach was used, with the farmers, community leaders, and NGOs being actively involved right from the problem analysis stage. The project data and information was collected together with the farmers, and at the end of the project, all stakeholders exhibited a strong positive sense of ownership of the results. The participants then served as ambassadors for the popularisation of this technology among their peers, and has now been adopted by over 90% of the farmers in the community. This approach has a very high potential for replication in other SIDS as well as in the region.This project was funded by the European Union( EU)under the Decentralised Cooperatiom Programme   ( DCP)

Keywords : climate change adaptation, ecosystem based approach, mulches, tillage, compost, SIDS.

 

Combining crop physiology, breeding, socioeconomics and modelling to the targeting of genotypes to “wheat hotspots” in Mexico

G. Molero (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Mexico, Mexico), J. Hellin (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Mexico, Mexico), P. Alderman (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Mexico, Mexico), K. Sonder (International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Mexico, Mexico)

Abstract details
Combining crop physiology, breeding, socioeconomics and modelling to the targeting of genotypes to “wheat hotspots” in Mexico

G. Molero (1) ; J. Hellin (2) ; P. Alderman (1) ; K. Sonder (2)
(1) International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Global wheat program, Mexico, Mexico; (2) International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center, Socio-economics program, Mexico, Mexico

Abstract content

Climate change is a global problem but its potential effects on crop production, as well as appropriate adaptation strategies and stakeholders’ adaptive capacity, will differ by region. Mexican agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change with models projecting a reduction in national productivity of almost 30%. The main cereal crops such as wheat and maize will be particularly affected. Research in Mexico’s main wheat production area, the Yaqui Valley, has shown that an increase of minimum temperature by one degree in the crucial growing period reduces yields by 10%.  In order to assist crop breeding programs to select and target wheat genotypes, it is important to identify current and future agro-ecological zones for wheat production in Mexico and, subsequently, appropriate wheat genotypes for these zones. Already established networks for multi-environments trial evaluations worldwide (such as the International Wheat Improvement Network IWIN)) can be used to identify widely or specifically adapted wheat genotypes in order to recommend which ones could have greater impact in different agro-ecological zones in Mexico. This is particularly relevant to rain-fed areas of Mexico where scarce information on genotype performance is available. To complement this approach, detailed studies on the same genotypes evaluated for physiological traits during different years can help to determine which specific traits confer to the genotypes an advantage under given environmental conditions.

We focus on appropriate climate adaptation strategies for wheat in rain-fed areas in Mexico. We use a bio-economic modeling framework involving crop, spatial and economic variables to identify “wheat hotspots” i.e. areas in Mexico which are particularly vulnerable to increased drought and heat stress. Drawing on data from international wheat trials at 25 sites worldwide, we identify wheat lines than could be released as varieties most suited to these predicted wheat hotspots. Additionally, combinations of crop simulation models together with geographic information systems (GIS) help us to understand spatial and temporal aspects related with Genotype-by-Environment (GxE) interaction and can be used to support geographic targeting of genotypes to environments. Wheat breeding and seed supply is dominated by the public sector. The socio-economic analysis focuses on the implications of our results for agricultural policies in Mexico to ensure that farmers have access to seed of locally adapted wheat genotypes. Our cross-disciplinary approach that draws on plant physiology, crop breeding and socio-economics, provides a framework for policy-makers, researchers and development practitioner to identify where climate adaptation efforts should be directed. It is a framework that can be adapted to other regions and crops such as maize in sub-Saharan Africa.

Vulnerability assessment of commercial & small scale farmers to flooding and its impact on biodiversity from 1940 to 2010 in the Duiwenhoks and Goukou catchments Western Cape, South Africa

Z. Jonas (South African National Biodiversity Institute, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract details
Vulnerability assessment of commercial & small scale farmers to flooding and its impact on biodiversity from 1940 to 2010 in the Duiwenhoks and Goukou catchments Western Cape, South Africa

Z. Jonas (1)
(1) South African National Biodiversity Institute, Climate Change BioAdaptation, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

South Africa is a water scarce country and the resources are unevenly distributed across the country’s landscape. The majority of the exploitable water is found in sparsely populated mountain catchment areas. Demands in terms of quality and quantity of water differ across sectors, water users and ecological requirements. For the Western Cape for example, a strong seasonality and micro-regional differentiation determines the balance between availability of water and the demands from water users. As a result the pressures and the impacts associated with water use are diverse in composition and intensity and affect the resilience of the province’s water resource situation and subsequent resource management. Major threats to both commercial and small scale farmers are as a result of water scarcity, which in turn directly affects the delivery of ecosystem services to the poor of the poorest.  South Africa’s biodiversity and ecosystems are increasingly under pressure from accelerated climate change ranging from temperature increases, changes in rainfall patterns and flooding. In Duiwenhoks and Goukou catchment there is evidence of increased floods from 1940 to 2010. This has resulted to severe catchment degradation which compromises the delivery of ecosystem services that poor people depends on. The large parts of these wetlands are destroyed, and wetlands are good ecosystem services to prevent flooding and ensure good water quality. The major problem currently is the over-extraction of water for various activities within the catchments such as water for vineyard farms, dairy farming as well as other commercial developments. In Goukou the inappropriate development in the estuarine space is hindering the ability of estuaries to buffer the surrounding landscape against floods. Flow reduction is increasing mouth closure and thereby increasing the risk of floods. This study is aiming at conducting thorough vulnerability assessment of both catchment and develops flooding response measures, where we will look at the land management practises using the existing spatial developments plans and integrated development plans and others in order to assess who is hit the hardest by flooding for both commercial and small scale farmers.  The vulnerability assessment data will be integrated with spatial data related to ecosystem service delivery and translated to the local level, based on catchment vulnerabilities and needs to inform local adaptation plans.

Agricultural adaptation to climate change- assessing adaptive decision-making of Indian farmers

C. Jha (National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai, India), V. Gupta (National Institute of Industrial Engineering, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India)

Abstract details
Agricultural adaptation to climate change- assessing adaptive decision-making of Indian farmers

C. Jha (1) ; V. Gupta (2)
(1) National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Economics, Mumbai, India; (2) National Institute of Industrial Engineering, Economics, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

Abstract content

Global climate change threatens natural and human systems and is expected to cause food insecurity, rural poverty, malnutrition and dreadful environmental conditions, especially for developing countries like India. Agriculture being the primary economic activity of developing countries, linkages between climate and agriculture are expected to be more prominent and vulnerable to erratic disturbances in near future. In this respect, adaptation is considered as a sustained approach to adjust agricultural system to changing climatic conditions. Agricultural adaptation involves local adjustments to climate variations and helps in reducing the vulnerability of agro-ecosystem to climate variations and extremes and ensures long-term resilience to future climatic turbulences.

 

Farmers being the key actors in agricultural sector; assessment of farmers’ decision making, their willingness to adapt, adaptive capacity and the likely responses to climate stimuli are crucial to ensure sustainable agricultural management. The critical question underlying farmer’s responses is how do farmers decide when and how to adapt and what determines their ability to adapt. Farmers usually choose from a set of adaptation strategies such as crop diversification, crop switching, altering area under cultivation, managing crop sowing and harvest timings, increased irrigation and soil and water conservation techniques; best suited to their local agronomic conditions. Farmers’ adaptation initially depends on their perception on changes in climatic conditions which are usually based on their past experiences of climate variability and extreme events and their future expectations of climate change which in turn is based on prevailing climate scenario. Although farmer’s perception to climate change might be a necessary condition it is not a sufficient condition to adapt as adaptive responses of farmers are finally determined by their incentive and ability to adapt. Farmer’s incentive to adapt is driven by their risk taking behavior and their expectations of earning sustained higher economic returns. Farmer’s ability to adapt might defer in terms of managerial and entrepreneurial capacities and farmer’s household and socio economic characteristics (Bryan et al., 2000; Nhemchena and Hassan, 2007; Deressa et al., 2008; Below et al., 2010; Falco and Veronesi, 2013). Farmer’s in developing countries usually try to maximize their net returns subject to their socio economic constraints, access to information and credit availability. Farmer’s decision making is often affected by complex set of socio-economic factors such as household size, age, gender, education level, off-farm income, farm size, access to extension services and credit availability etc. which are beyond farmer’s control.

 

Against this background, this study tries to hypothesize the possible effects of key socio economic variables on farmer’s ability to adapt and adaptive choices under differing local conditions for Bihar district in India. Agriculture serves to be the chief economic activity of Bihar which lies in the Indo-Gangetic plain of India and is divided into three agro-climatic zones based on soil characteristics, rainfall and temperature. Through quantitative and qualitative analysis of survey data on farmer’s responses, the study finds that socio-economic factors are key determinants of farmer’s adaptive capacity and adaptation decisions are outcome of interactions between these factors. Large household size can ease farm labor supply and assist in non-farm income. Also, educated farmers with large household size help in creation of intra-household social network which eases flow of information and helps in framing farmer’s perception. Young and educated farmers are more ready to adopt new and advanced technology and also ensure usage of appropriate amount and quality of seeds, fertilizers, pesticides and thus increasingly adopt soil and water conservation through crop switching and mixed farming practices. The magnitude of effects of these interlinked factors is however difficult to assess as it depends on socio-cultural, economic and political status which varies across spatial and regional scales and are often complex in nature especially for developing countries. The results of the study can be helpful in assessing vulnerability of farmer’s to climate change in developing countries and help in reducing barriers to climate change adaptation.

Reducing fungal infestaions in growing groundnuts through biocontrol methods that can increase crop safety by deacreasing Aflatoxin content

M. Kifle (UKZN, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa)

Abstract details
Reducing fungal infestaions in growing groundnuts through biocontrol methods that can increase crop safety by deacreasing Aflatoxin content

M. Kifle (1)
(1) UKZN, Plant Pathology, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

Abstract content

Peanut (Arachis hypogaea L.) is an important food crop in sub-Saharan Africa and also an important oilseed and food crop around the world. In most of sub-Saharan Africa, the consumption of peanut and peanut products is high because of their affordability and adaptability to a variety of culinary uses. Peanut consumption has been linked to the reduction of cardiovascular disease including coronary heart disease, Alzheimer’s disease, malnutrition as well as cancer. However, peanut is highly susceptible to the growth of mycotoxigenic fungi and hence it is prone to aflatoxin contamination. Pre-harvest infection of groundnuts by Aspergillus spp. is of great food safety concern due to their ability to produce secondary mycotoxins, called aflatoxins. Aflatoxins cannot be readily removed from contaminated foods by detoxification. Members belongs to the genus Asperigillus are most abundant in the tropics and as such, are major food spoilage agent in warm climates. Therefore, there is a need to develop biocontrol methods that will increase crop safety by preventing the infection of the groundnut seeds by these pathogens, and hence to stop the contamination of the seed by these toxins. Prior research in glasshouse trials suggests that this approach works and can increase yields by 50%, as a bonus.

Climate Warming and Rural Poultry Production in Southern Africa - A Review

N. Nyoni (University of the Witwtersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa), S. Grab (University of the Witwtersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa), V. G. E. Archer (CSIR, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract details
Climate Warming and Rural Poultry Production in Southern Africa - A Review

N. Nyoni (1) ; S. Grab (1) ; VGE. Archer (2)
(1) University of the Witwtersrand, Geography an Environmental Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) CSIR, Climate change, natural resources and the environment, Pretoria, South Africa

Abstract content

Compared to other livestock types, poultry are more likely to be owned by most rural households in developing countries. Rural poultry production is not an occupation per se, but tends to comprise a supplemental household activity, primarily amongst poor rural families, and thus contributes significantly as a source of scarce animal protein and income. Rural poultry is, however, faced with several challenges such as inherent slow growth rates, high rearing mortalities and susceptibility to diseases, poor nutrition, housing, and lack of proper health care, which impede its productivity. At the same time, the unequivocal warming of climate is expected to compound certain of these constraints. The study described here seeks to establish the relationship between climate warming and rural poultry farming in southern Africa. This is envisaged to outline the impact of climate change on rural poultry, and create a platform for developing intervention strategies to improve and sustain rural poultry production. In the current paper, literature on the importance of rural poultry, rural poultry production challenges, and climate warming and poultry production is reviewed, and key knowledge and data gaps identified. Researchable issues on climate warming and rural poultry production are further suggested

Increasing within-field diversity to foster agro-ecosystem services and cope with climate change

J. Enjalbert (INRA, Gif sur Yvette, France), V. Allard (INRA, Clermont-Ferrand, France), B. Andrieu (INRA, Grignon, France), S. Barot (IRD, Paris, France), J. Borg (INRA, Gif sur Yvette, France), D. Descoureaux (Chambre d'Agriculture du Loir-et-Cher, Blois, France), C. De Vallavielle-Pope (INRA, Grignon, France), A. Gauffreteau (INRA, Grignon, France), I. Goldringer (INRA, Gif sur Yvette, France), S. Lemarié (INRA, Grenoble, France), X. Le Roux (INRA, Lyon, France), E. Porcher (MNHN, Paris, France), S. Saint-Jean (INRA, Grignon, France), T. Wheatamix Consortium (INRA, Gif sur Yvette, France)

Abstract details
Increasing within-field diversity to foster agro-ecosystem services and cope with climate change

J. Enjalbert (1) ; V. Allard (2) ; B. Andrieu (3) ; S. Barot (4) ; J. Borg (5) ; D. Descoureaux (6) ; C. De Vallavielle-Pope (3) ; A. Gauffreteau (3) ; I. Goldringer (5) ; S. Lemarié (7) ; X. Le Roux (8) ; E. Porcher (9) ; S. Saint-Jean (3) ; T. Wheatamix Consortium (5)
(1) INRA, Plant Breeding, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) INRA, Bap, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (3) INRA, Grignon, France; (4) IRD, Paris, France; (5) INRA, Gif sur Yvette, France; (6) Chambre d'Agriculture du Loir-et-Cher, Blois, France; (7) INRA, Grenoble, France; (8) INRA, Ea, Lyon, France; (9) MNHN, Paris, France

Abstract content

During the 20th century, agriculture experienced major gains in productivity via homogenization and intensive use of inputs. This model is jeopardized by the awareness of rapid global change, in particular climate change, and the need for greater agricultural sustainability. Crop genetic diversity should play an essential role in this context, as it could promote various ecosystem services essential for adaptation to climate change. Increasing within field diversity through the use of cultivar mixtures is a timely option, testified by with some significant “success stories” in the past. Despite the abundant bibliography demonstrating the interest of intra-specific crop diversity, cultivar mixtures are poorly developed worldwide. In this context, the WHEATAMIX project studies the interest of mixing wheat genotypes to reinforce the sustainability and resilience of agricultural production and the provision of various ecosystem services. Based on a highly multidisciplinary approach we analyze the interactions among genotypes and with the environment, to develop new methods for breeding and/or combining wheat varieties to obtain performing blends in a global change context. Complementary experimental approaches are being deployed: i) a main diversity experiment (Eighty-eight wheat plots with 1, 2, 4 or 8 varieties, under low input) to quantify over several years the variety diversity effects on ecosystem services; ii) replicates of the same diversity experiment in 4 sites across France, to test the robustness of wheat diversity effects under a wide range of soil and climate conditions; iii) a network of 50 farms, encompassing agro-climatic variability in the Paris basin, to compare the ecological and techno-economic performance of blends with that of monocultures, using direct links with key stakeholders. The first results provide a comprehensive characterization of the multiple ecosystem services provided by genetic diversity (yield stability; regulation of foliar diseases; insect pest and weed biocontrol; maintenance of soil fertility; biodiversity conservation), and the trade-offs and synergies that exist among ecosystem services. The result also guide the selection of variety mixtures and corresponding bundles of functional traits that can deliver particular groups of services to tackle the climate change issue.

Assessing the determinants of alternative adaptation strategies at farm level: the case of wine growers in South-East France

N. Graveline (BRGM, Montpellier, France), M. Grémont (BRGM, Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
Assessing the determinants of alternative adaptation strategies at farm level: the case of wine growers in South-East France

N. Graveline (1) ; M. Grémont ()
(1) BRGM, Environnement, Water & Ecotechnologies, Montpellier, France

Abstract content

Climate change is expected to have a double effect on water resources, directly, by potentially reducing the recharge of water resources and, indirectly, through an increase of water demands and uptakes, mainly through irrigated farming. Understanding the rationale leading farmers to adapt to climate change is thus a major challenge for water management because one of the strategies to adapt to increasing crop water requirement is irrigation. This will induce new water demands, thus understanding the determinants of irrigation choice is a challenge for robust water planification both in terms of water conveyance infrastructure planning and environmental impacts on water resources. It is also a central issue for agricultural economics and policy. One of our main assumptions to this analysis is to state that climate change is just one of the multiple changes farmers are facing together with regulatory changes (right to irrigate on a regular basis since 2006), economic changes linked to the changes in consumers demand and wine market in general, and technical changes. Adaptation must be seen as a response to all the perceived changes and not to a particular one, apriori. Also, adaptation has always been at the core of farmer’s experience.

In order to explore these questions, we concentrate on the case of wine growers in South-East France (Languedoc-Roussillon) where the context is changing: irrigation is authorized on a regular basis since 2006 only and a large water conveyance infrastructure is being constructed enabling for new water resources. We surveyed wine growers in Languedoc-Roussillon via a detailed Internet questionnaire sent to more than 3000 winegrowers to understand the determinants of agricultural practices and strategic choices (planting, structural size change, commercialization). The diffusion of the questionnaire was realized via the mail listings of professional organisms (Chambre d'agriculture, cooperatives...). We collected data on current and future practices relative to soil-plant water management, perceptions of past economic, regulatory, technical and climate changes and social and economic characteristics such as objectives that wine growers are pursuing with their activity (improving wine quality, preserving tradition, etc.). For all completed and validated survey variables characterizing the terroir are systematically associated to each farm: rain, temperature, soil water capacity, elevation.

A representative sample of 363 wine growers is used for a descriptive and econometric analysis. 30% of our sample is already irrigating vine while up to 28% is considering this option. When facing a climate change scenario by 2050, 57% of those not currently irrigating say they would implement irrigation. This illustrates the importance of anticipating future demand for water irrigation. We consider two main types of determinants and explore their relative contribution in explaining the adoption of water management practices at farm level. Terroir-like variables and socio-economic variables, including main objectives that vine growers are pursuing with their activity are explored as determinants. The results confirmed that both terroir and socio-economic determinants play a significant role in the implementation of adaptation actions among which irrigation. Perceptions of past changes are determinants of adaptations: for instance perceptions of regulatory changes are determinants of existing irrigation whereas perception of climate change is a determinant of having the project to irrigate in the future. Results suggest that having its own cellar (wine transformation), increasing its size, being part of professional networks, producing wine of good quality and developing commercial strategies are determinants of resilient farms.

Develop a web service portfolio to support the adaptation of agriculture, forestry and water management to climate change

N. Breda (INRA, Champenoux, France), A. Chénot (INRA, Champenoux, France), T. Caquet (INRA, Champenoux, France), C. Gascuel-Odoux (INRA, Rennes, France), J.-F. Soussana (INRA, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Develop a web service portfolio to support the adaptation of agriculture, forestry and water management to climate change

N. Breda (1) ; A. Chénot (2) ; T. Caquet (2) ; C. Gascuel-Odoux (3) ; JF. Soussana (4)
(1) INRA, Umr 1137 inra-université de lorraine "forest ecology and ecophysiology-eef", Champenoux, France; (2) INRA, Uar 1275 ecology of forests, grasslands and freshwater systems division, Champenoux, France; (3) INRA, 1069 inra-agrocampus ouest “soil, agro and hydrosystem-sas”, Rennes, France; (4) INRA, Collège de direction, Paris, France

Abstract content

The adaptation to climate change of agriculture and forestry as well as water management requires tools to predict the effect of multiple scenarios combining agronomy, forestry, water management and climatic components in any physical environment, in order to anticipate negative effects of climate change, and to test and choose the most relevant strategies anywhere. A project is currently developed for building integrated tools and delivering services, encouraging midterm and strategic adaptation over France, by coupling agronomy, forestry and hydrology models. This project presents two main aspects: 1) an analysis of stakeholders demands, which has already shown that different spatial levels (territory, hydrological basin and whole France) would have to be considered, that demands are multiple and multiform, declined according to different levels of information (general information on the effect of climate change on agriculture and forestry, site vs. crop rotation modeling, up to totally distributed spatiotemporal agro-hydrologic modeling including economic dimensions); 2) an inventory of the currently available databases and models (climate, soil, crop and hydrology) and an analysis on how to couple them and overcome sectorial vision. The objective of a first step is to elaborate the specifications of one or several detailed integrated model(s), taking into account the demands of the stakeholders. Indeed, they request several innovations for the dissemination of research on adaptation: sharing knowledge and concepts, web mapping tools to display and examine maps or databases computed by modeling coupled water-agriculture-climate, or the making available models online at allowing the user to test by himself adaptation's options. Such a portfolio of services requires calculations in the past climate, present and future, with combination of emission scenarios, climate models and downscaling methods to achieve a spatial resolution consistent with the decisions of farmers and foresters to adapt production and the corresponding economic sectors. Several crop and forest models should also be used in order to take into account the uncertainty related to the ability of impact models to reproduce all the processes. Such a portfolio of services requires calculations in the past climate, present and future, with the combination of emission scenarios, climate models and downscaling methods to achieve a spatial resolution consistent with the decisions of the farmers and foresters to adapt production and related economic sectors. Several agricultural and forestry models should be proposed to represent the uncertainty due to the vide range of impact models, reproducing more or less processes. Finally, multi-criteria evaluation (economic, social, biotech) adaptation options will be made possible. This project is developed by Inra and partners (Irstea, BRGM, CEA, CNRS, Universities, Météo France, …) under the umbrella of Allenvi, the National Research Alliance for the Environment.

Farming Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Events in Pacific Island Countries

V. Iese (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji), J. Maeke (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji), M. Wairiu (The University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji)

Abstract details
Farming Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Events in Pacific Island Countries

V. Iese (1) ; J. Maeke (1) ; M. Wairiu (1)
(1) The University of the South Pacific, Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development, Suva, Fiji

Abstract content

Farmers in Pacific Islands’ communities are considered to be most vulnerable to the impacts of increased temperature, sea-level rise, droughts, cyclones, and heavy rainfall. Farmers living on a raised atoll in the Solomon Islands (Bellona) were interviewed to understand their perceptions and experiences on the impacts of climate change and extreme events on their crops. Some examples of damage and impacts according to the farmers included rotting of roots, damage to leaves and branches, and destruction of fruits and valuable yields. Interviews also revealed that the ability of farmers to recover after disasters was dependent on their pre-disaster conditions, number and varieties of crops they had planted, type of cropping system in use, and consistent use of simple, traditional, and innovative adaptive techniques. Such techniques included crop rotation, change of planting and harvesting dates, and the planting of new resilient varieties.

Investigating Climate Variability and Change and their Associated Impacts on Banana Productivity over Uganda

G. Sabiiti (Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda)

Abstract details
Investigating Climate Variability and Change and their Associated Impacts on Banana Productivity over Uganda

G. Sabiiti (1)
(1) Makerere University, Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Kampala, Uganda

Abstract content

Climate extremes associated with climate variability and change are on the rise both globally and regionally with far reaching impacts on socio-economic sectors particularly for countries like Uganda whose agriculture is largely rain-fed. Banana is a major crop that provides continuous cycles of harvests making it important for enhancing food security over most parts of East Africa. Studies have reported continuous decline in banana productivity due to biological and environmental factors including climate extremes. This study investigated pattern in climate and the effect of current and future extremes in rainfall and surface air temperature on banana productivity over L. Victoria basin of Uganda.

The study used observed rainfall, surface air temperature and banana productivity records spanning 1971–2009 for central and western regions of Uganda. Future climate change data from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5) climate scenarios for the period 2021-2050 were also analysed.

In this study, seasonal climate data were subjected to time series analysis and Mann-Kendall tests for trend and change detection. The study employed correlation and polynomial regression analysis to identify linkage between current rainfall and surface air temperature variability and banana yields. The Food and Agricultural Organisation Crop Water Assessment Tool (FAO-CROPWAT) was used to estimate banana yield changes due to soil moisture variations for different parts of Uganda. The FAO Eco-crop tool and Geo-spatial Information System (GIS) techniques were used to identify suitable rainfall and surface air temperature conditions for banana production to map future (2021-2050) suitability of banana production.

The study results showed no significant trend in seasonal rainfall in most parts of the country except a notable rainfall decrease in the western regions and slight increase for stations around Lake Victoria region. The results indicated significantly increasing trends in surface air temperature. A faster increase is notable over the central than over western parts of Uganda. This is partly attributed to different rates of land-use changes from increasing urbanization and population pressure in characterizing the two regions. Polynomial functions of degree 1 (rainfall) and degree 2 (air temperature) were determined to fit a relationship between banana yield and climate variables. The regression results show that rainfall variability explained 26% and 14% of the variations in banana yields over central and western regions respectively. Variations in minimum (maximum) surface air temperature explained 31% (34%) and 26% (30%) of the variations in banana yields respectively.

 The results indicated high likelihood of warming trends (2021-2050) with respect to the climate scenarios except RCP 2.6 simulation cooler (seasonal surface air temperature) and drier (seasonal rainfall) than current observations, seasonal surface air temperature and rainfall simulation of RCP 4.5 are slightly warmer and wetter than RCP 2.6 simulations. The projected seasonal rainfall and surface air temperature is more amplified in RCP6.0 compared with all other scenarios and only cooler than RCP 8.5 surface air temperature simulations (by ≈1.7 oC). Future banana suitability mapping indicate a larger (smaller) area suitable for banana production under RCP 6.0 and RCP 4.5 (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the study period.       

This study provides critical evidence of climate variability and change, establishes linkages between climate variability and banana productivity over Uganda that can used to develop coping and adaptation strategies to improve banana productivity and enhance food security over the region.

The INRA metaprogramme on Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC)

T. Caquet (INRA, Champenoux, France), N. Breda (INRA, Champenoux, France), J. P. Amigues (INRA, Toulouse, France), C. Gascuel-Odoux (INRA, Rennes, France), K. Chalvet-Monfray (INRA, Saint Genès Champanelle, France), P. Debaeke (INRA, Castanet Tolosan, France), J.-M. Touzard (INRA, Montpellier, France), J.-F. Soussana (INRA, Paris, France)

Abstract details
The INRA metaprogramme on Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC)

T. Caquet (1) ; N. Breda (2) ; JP. Amigues (3) ; C. Gascuel-Odoux (4) ; K. Chalvet-Monfray (5) ; P. Debaeke (6) ; JM. Touzard (7) ; JF. Soussana (8)
(1) INRA, Uar 1275 ecology of forests, grasslands and freshwater systems division, Champenoux, France; (2) INRA, UMR 1137 INRA UL Forest Ecology and Ecophysiology, Champenoux, France; (3) INRA, SAE2, Toulouse, France; (4) INRA, 1069 inra-agrocampus ouest “soil, agro and hydrosystem-sas”, Rennes, France; (5) INRA, Ur 346 animal epidemiology-epi-a, Saint Genès Champanelle, France; (6) INRA, Umr 1248 inra-inpt agroecologies innovations ruralities - agir, Castanet Tolosan, France; (7) INRA, Montpellier, France; (8) INRA, Paris, France

Abstract content

The metaprogramme on Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) has been launched by the French Institute for Agricultural Research in 2011. It aims at coordinating, promoting and integrating the research activities to overcome the scientific and societal barriers that could restrict adaptation. This proactive and pluridisciplinary strategy involves cooperation with French and foreign academic and socioprofessional actors. It should ensure rapid results and progress, for example in multi-criteria assessment of adaptation options. Favouring the dialogue between disciplines, AAFCC provides a framework for the various research projects on adaptation of agriculture and forests to climate change. Discipline-related skills in human and social sciences, agronomy, ecology, genetics, ecophysiology, animal sciences, economy and modelling are mobilised to cover the range of questions raised by adaptation to climate change. The chosen strategy focuses on integrated approaches at the sector or territorial level. The issues and general objectives of the programme can globally be ordered according to the increasing response times of the systems, from short- to long-term, and the intensity and 'active' nature of the adaptation: from palliative or support actions, to innovation and technical or collective organisational breakthroughs. Such breakthroughs require strong innovations and a thorough socio-economic assessment.

AAFCC is fully in line with the European Joint Programming Initiative on “Agriculture, food security and climate change”, initiated to enhance coordination of national research programmes. Research projects address annual and perennial crops, livestock, forests, biodiversity or water and soil resources. AAFCC has also promoted training of young scientists through PhD grants and postdoctoral fellowships. Since 2011, AAFCC has supported more than 25 national research projects and international actions and networks. It supports various European-level initiatives through funding of some ERA-NETs.  It also supports international (for example cooperative projects with India or south Mediterranean countries) or global (for example ensemble crop modelling) projects. International actions increase the range of climate conditions and model species under investigation. Considering the issues at stake, international cooperation is undoubtedly, along with pluridisciplinarity, the most important issue in this domain. This is the reason why AAFCC supports various European-level initiatives and international or global projects in addition to national projects. The general objectives of AAFCC and its main achievements are presented and discussed.

Influence of climate change on nitrogen-fixing bacteria and its use as bio-fertilizer for crop production

M. Karim (University of Dhaka, (and Global Young Academy), Dhaka, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Influence of climate change on nitrogen-fixing bacteria and its use as bio-fertilizer for crop production

M. Karim (1)
(1) University of Dhaka, (and Global Young Academy), Microbiology, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Increasing rates of sea level rise in the mainland of the coastal areas of the Bay of Bengal is thought to have one of the many effects of climate change and global warming afflicting developing countries of South Asia.  Bangladesh, in particular has already been affected through land erosion and salinity intrusion in its broader coastline, and is expected to suffer further setback in the form of damage to infrastructures, crop failure, fisheries destruction and loss of biodiversity.  The coastal area covers about 20% of Bangladesh and over 30% of the net cultivable areas.  Such a vast area is feared to be affected with varying degrees of salinity intrusion, with the consequent reduction of normal crop production.  This study attempts to isolate and identify agriculturally-important microorganism (AIMO), Azotobacter spp which play a predominant role in maintaining soil arability by fixing atmospheric nitrogen.  They are Gram-negative and aerobic soil bacteria which meet about 70% nitrogen demand in soil.  In addition to nitrogen fixation, these bacteria are able to solubilize phosphates, produce plant growth hormones and vitamins.  Overall, they are renewable, yet a cost-effective source of the major plant nutrient to supplement the nitrogen-containing chemical fertilizer.  In the light of Rio+20 earth summit, it can be said that their effective use could ensure sustainable agriculture as they are economically profitable, socially responsible, and environmentally acceptable.  

In order to understand how long these bacteria will remain proactive under the climate change effects, soil samples from rice fields were collected in order to isolate and identify Azotobacter spp based on microscopic, cultural and biochemical properties.  Sixteen and four strains of Azotobacter spp were isolated from salinity-prone southwest coastal districts, and non-saline midland areas of Bangladesh respectively.  Their survival response in selective media, Azotobacter broth, supplemented with varying concentrations of NaCl was studied.  Isolates were found to adapt and grow even at 20% salt concentration indicating their phenomenal tolerance to withstand salt stress.  As they continue to grow in medium devoid of nitrogen, understandably they fix nitrogen.  Most of these isolates harbor single and one very large plasmid (>50kb), as opposed to isolates recovered from non-saline zones.  High salt tolerant, Azotobacter spp were then characterized for their drug resistance, and were tested to twenty six antimicrobial drugs, belonging to fifteen different antibiotic groups.  Isolates from saline zones showed shear resistance to most of the drugs (estimated 94%), while the isolates from non-saline zones exhibited 39% resistance only.  The presence of high molecular weight plasmid therefore is assumed to be correlated with the multidrug resistance pattern of the isolates. Genetic fingerprinting of the studied bacteria revealed that twenty isolates belonged to five different Azotobacter species.  Overall, these salt-tolerant species have the ability to counteract salinity stress, yet fixing atmospheric nitrogen; therefore have the potential to be applied as bio-fertilizer in the coastal agriculture.

Strategies of farmers to rainfall variations in the municipality of Zè in Benin

V. N. Adjahossou (Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin), S. B. Adjahossou (Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin), F. E. Dovonou (Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Calavi, Benin), D. F. Adjahossou (Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin)

Abstract details
Strategies of farmers to rainfall variations in the municipality of Zè in Benin

VN. Adjahossou (1) ; SB. Adjahossou (2) ; FE. Dovonou (3) ; DF. Adjahossou (4)
(1) Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Géographie, Cotonou, Benin; (2) Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Génie de l'environnement, Cotonou, Benin; (3) Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Faculté des sciences et techniques, Calavi, Benin; (4) Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Faculté des sciences agronomiques, Cotonou, Benin

Abstract content

Current climate change in several parts of the world are real obstacles to the development of agricultural activities. This change is characterized by irregularity and bad distribution of rainfall along the year. Sometimes rainfall occurs in abundance during a short period when crops don’t need a lot of water. These difficulties are greater for farmers in developing countries as those in South-Benin practicing for the most part, highly dependent on rainfall agriculture.

Documentary research, observation and investigation in a real area have permitted to collect the necessary data during this research. The surveys were conducted with 202 farmers living and operating in the Municipality of Zè. This area is located in Atlantique department. It is situated between 6° 32 and 6° 87 N latitude and between 2°13 and 2° 26 E longitude. It covers an area of 653km², Zè is the largest municipality in the department represents 19.88% of the territory.

The climate is sub-equatorial and is characterized by rainfall amounts higher or lower, a relatively small annual thermal amplitude (less than 5 ° C) and the succession of four distinct seasons: a long rainy season from mid - March to mid – July;  a short dry season from mid - July to August; a small rainy season from September to November and a long dry season from December to mid – March. The frequencies of rainfall and water levels are experiencing more and more disturbances in recent years. The hydrographic system is not dense. Only the northern part of the municipality is watered by the tributaries of the river Oueme mainly Sô River.

It appears from the use of the data collected that people (more than 84% rural) of the Zè municipality develop strategies to cope with climate change. In general, the agricultural calendar is modified to comply with new rainfall rates.

The combination of cultures and multiple or replanting seedlings are practiced in place to reduce the impact of rainfall variations on Agriculture in Zè. Changing the cropping calendar

Crop calendar takes account of the seasonal precipitation. Land preparation takes place in the late dry seasons. From the first rains, the farmers start planting. To the rainy season, sowing takes place from mid-March to mid-April and early rainy season, from mid-August to mid-September for maize. Currently, with late rains, sowing takes place later. Generally, farmers expect three to four rains before planting when they consider soil humidity is sufficient to favor seed germination and seedling emergence. But some farmers take the risk of planting after heavy rain and other precipitation when not following the operation, they resume planting.

In localities of great pineapple productions like municipality of Zè young farmers interested in increasingly pineapple production at the expense of maize production. Pineapple, CAM plant (Crassulacean acid metabolism), tolerates, breaking to sudden stops rain (Degras, 1986). This is not the case of maize which performance may drop drastically when drought occurs in the critical period of 15 days to 20 days during which occurs grain filling (Vieira da Silva, 1984). There is therefore, according to farmers, less likely to produce pineapples to produce maize.

The combination of cultures is to produce two or more crops simultaneously in the same field (Steiner, 1985). It contributes to reduce natural risks that could affect crop yields including breaks rain. Trenbath, (1993) showed that species that grows in association with other cultures is less attacked by pests that in mono culture and improves productivity per unit area (Adjahossou, 2005 and Adjahossou, 2012). According to some farmers, the association of cultures would better conserve soil humidity. This could be explained by the limitation of evapotranspiration due to the microclimate created by the combination of two or more cultures. In the study area, commonly associated crops are maize-cassava, maize-cowpea and corn-pineapple.

It should be noted that these strategies have many limitations and need to be improved significantly.

Does diversification in smallholder coffee landscapes help farmers to adapt to climate change? Answers from Nicaragua

M. Van Zonneveld (Bioversity International, Turrialba, Costa Rica), R. Guevara, (Bioversity International, Turrialba, Costa Rica), A. Fallot, (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD, Turrialba, Costa Rica)

Abstract details
Does diversification in smallholder coffee landscapes help farmers to adapt to climate change? Answers from Nicaragua

M. Van Zonneveld (1) ; R. Guevara, (1) ; A. Fallot, (2)
(1) Bioversity International, Turrialba, Costa Rica; (2) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD, Turrialba, Costa Rica

Abstract content

Introduction: The Central American coffee production area is predicted to reduce substantially under progressive climate change. The livelihoods of many smallholders in these landscapes are threatened because they largely depend on coffee production. Despite the growing emphasis on on-farm diversification to manage climate risks and improve food security in coffee landscapes, there are no criteria developed to quantify the status, need and outreach of diversification.

Objectives: We identified with community representatives and other local stakeholders in two contrasting coffee zones in Nicaragua (dry and humid): 1) the role of on-farm diversification in farmer strategies in climate change adaptation; 2) different dimensions of on-farm diversification; and 3) the need for specific measures to make use of the potential of diversification.

Methods: We carried out a literature review highlighting the different dimensions of diversification, and for each dimension, the benefits and drawbacks of diversification for smallholders of coffee landscapes. We consulted institutions and focal groups from ten communities in two contrasting coffee zones in Nicaragua about: 1) the vulnerability of their livelihoods to climate changes ; 2) existing and desirable strategies to adapt to these changes;  3) existing diversity in coffee farms; 4) what on-farm diversification would represent for them to be an effective way of adapting to climate change. Taken into account the gender issue, we conducted interviews in farm households to understand how actual diversification is related to climate risk management and food security status, and to identify specific needs to enable farmers making use of the potential for diversification. To embed our results in local development and research processes, our activities were linked to existing farmer initiatives and the local university agronomy faculty. In each coffee zone, phenological calendars for the principal crops were developed on the basis of the collected information to support farmers´ crop management under the existing climate variability.

Preliminary results and discussion: Farmer families in both coffee zones indicated crop diversification among adaptation options that they prefer, particularly enrichment with fruit perennials like plantain, banana and citrus.  These crops provide cash flow through the year and can be used also for own consumption to enrich the diets of farmer families.  Though a large diversity of agricultural species is grown in the landscape, most on-farm activities are concentrated around coffee, maize and common beans and take place between May and August, which coincides with the months of seasonal hunger. This suggests a high potential for diversification which is currently little utilized to improve food security, generate income and to adapt production systems to climate variability. The literature review allows us to draw a first typology of complementarity and competition effects amongst crops. Some farmers have already enriched their coffee farms with fruit perennials and other crops. Because of their experience, they are key persons to share knowledge about benefits and risks of crop diversification with other farmers. At landscape level, farmers stressed the importance of sufficient tree cover to ensure key environmental services like water availability. Restoration and conservation activities at landscape level will require coordination among farmer s and governmental organizations. 

Acknowledgements: This study is financed by the PCP Research Platform and CCAFS.

Medicinal and Aromatic Crops: An alternate proposition for exploiting abiotic stresses

S. Singh (CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India), A. K. Singh (CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India), N. Absar (CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India), R. Singh (CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India), N. S. Sangwan (CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India), D. D. Patra (CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India)

Abstract details
Medicinal and Aromatic Crops: An alternate proposition for exploiting abiotic stresses

S. Singh (1) ; AK. Singh (1) ; N. Absar (1) ; R. Singh (1) ; NS. Sangwan (2) ; DD. Patra (1)
(1) CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Agro-technology, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India; (2) CSIR-Central Institute of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants, Biochemistry and synthetic biology, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India

Abstract content

The demand for herbal drugs, plant based aroma chemicals and natural products is increasing at a speeding pace owing to the uniqueness, diversity and effectiveness of the associated crops used for. The secondary metabolites synthesized in medicinal and aromatic crops (MACs) also protect them from challenging circumstances like defence against certain stresses. In some cases, stress has been shown to bear positive effects on the production of secondary metabolites. The unique features of these MACs are that, many of them have the potential to withstand abiotic stresses to a higher degree as compared to traditional crops. This is also due the fact that, unlike agricultural crops, the MACs are not so sensitive to availability of soil moisture / temperature/ photo-periodism etc. In many cases vegetative parts are the ultimate products. Hence, there are lot of flexibilities in adjusting the planting and harvesting time.

Many of MACs are considered as high value crops presenting higher returns to the growers. However, cultivation of these MACs may not be encouraged at the expense of traditional agricultural crops already growing on well managed fertile lands. While several attempts are being taken up using molecular and modern approaches to fulfil the impeding demands of natural products, yet still the commercial production of related crops under field conditions remains as major option. The attractive proposition, therefore, appears to evaluate and promote these crops on marginal lands which might be facing some kinds of abiotic stress. These crops can manage to improve productivity and economic output compared to traditional crops.

 Various possibilities of growing medicinal and aromatic plants under different types of abiotic stresses and their evaluation in terms of imparting benefits over traditional food and agricultural crops being grown in tropical and sub-tropical regions of India will be deliberated at the meeting.

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Screening of Blackgram (Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper) genotypes for thermotolerance using Temperature Induction Response (TIR) technique

P. Theeban (TAMIL NADU AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, TAMILNADU, India)

Abstract details
Screening of Blackgram (Vigna mungo (L.) Hepper) genotypes for thermotolerance using Temperature Induction Response (TIR) technique

P. Theeban (1)
(1) TAMIL NADU AGRICULTURAL UNIVERSITY, CROP PHYSIOLOGY, TAMILNADU, India

Abstract content

Temperature induction response was standardized for blackgram genotypes. A total of nineteen blackgram genotypes were screened and evaluated for thermotolerance. By using standardized optimum induction and challenging temperature, cellular level tolerance using TIR protocol was assessed in all the blackgram genotypes. The challenging lethal temperature was standardized as 50˚C at which 98 per cent of the seedling mortality was noticed.  The induction temperature was standardized as 36 to 40˚C at which 46.4 per cent of growth reduction over control was noticed The Based on root length and shoot height of induced seedlings over control seedlings, the cellular level tolerance in terms of least reduction in growth and highest survival percentage was calculated. Also, the physiological basis of thermotolerance was assessed by measuring the proline content and antioxidant enzyme activities. The genotypes VBG-07-001, VBG-06-010 have intrinsic heat tolerance and they can be explored as donor source in breeding programme aimed for global warming. 

Agriculture and conservation: agroforestry biodiverse systems as a adaptative strategy to climate change in the brazilian Atlantic Forest

G. Narezi (Federal University of Southern Bahia, Porto Seguro - BA, Brazil), P. J. Sobral (University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil)

Abstract details
Agriculture and conservation: agroforestry biodiverse systems as a adaptative strategy to climate change in the brazilian Atlantic Forest

G. Narezi (1) ; PJ. Sobral (2)
(1) Federal University of Southern Bahia, Center of Studies in Environmental Sciences, Porto Seguro - BA, Brazil; (2) University of São Paulo, Research program for the development of rural settlements and family farming, Piracicaba, Brazil

Abstract content

These analyses are focused on consensus possibilities regarding spatial planning solutions based on a perspective that overcomes the production/environment polarization and dichotomy. This study also found that transition to different agricultural models, which are more sustainable and biodiverse, can help family farmers achieve their goals. Thus, this research project is aimed at analyzing recent mediation strategies for social-environmental conflicts, addressing issues like the access to land, natural resources and life quality in the context of the in the brazilian Atlantic Forest. The objective of this research is to develop an analysis on the technical and methodological improvements and innovations applied to agroecological private and community production systems in these areas. The methodology adopted is based on bibliographic research and on the collection of primary data through field notebooks noting and oral reports gathering in participative spaces for use planning and land occupation in future rural settlements located in the southernmost region of Bahia, that has one of the largest continuous remnants of Atlantic Rainforest of the country. In addition, we are planning semi structured interviews with researchers who are working on themes related to adaptation and resilience in agricultural ecosystems regarding to climate change. The historical context of the region addressed in this research, including its economy cycles and social and environmental conflicts, must be considered. Specifically, the agendas brought up in negotiations between social movements, traditional indigenous populations, the state and forest companies are discussed here, in order to provide perspectives that enable an agricultural model that conserves the biodiversity of a massive part of the Atlantic Forest Biome. This paper also presents reflections regarding different management models designed for protected natural areas. From the data collected it was possible to characterize and interpret the social organization, the history of traditional agricultural production practices, of environmental conflicts related to the land management and intensive agricultural practices in degraded areas. In this context, it was possible to find evidence that the way of life and agricultural production of the area favor local sensitivity in regard of an agroecological transition process. However, the challenges over the implementation of the agroforestry biodiverse systems analyzed in this study, shows that the perspective of nature conservation along with development faces many obstacles to its propagation even though agroecology is in the forefront of the discussion.  Even with the impact of successful agroecological experiences at brazilian Atlantic Forest, socio-biodiversity conservation initiatives and cultural valorization of sustainable development of traditional populations are still overlooked at public polices.

Transhumant MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN NORTH EAST OF BENIN

P. Lesse (Faculty of Agronomics Sciences, Benin, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), J. Djenontin (Faculty of Agromy, Parakou, Benin), I. Toko (University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), M. Houinato (Faculty of Agronomics Sciences, Benin, Abomey-Calavi, Benin)

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Transhumant MANAGEMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN NORTH EAST OF BENIN

P. Lesse (1) ; J. Djenontin (2) ; I. Toko (3) ; M. Houinato (1)
(1) Faculty of Agronomics Sciences, Benin, Abomey-Calavi, Benin; (2) Faculty of Agromy, Parakou, Benin; (3) University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Abstract content

The W National Park and its surroundings are a privileged and concentration of the national herd where confront all the logical development of the transhumance. In a context where the Benin suffers directly from weather conditions less under control, it is essential to improve knowledge on transhumance, know the current rangeland management and coping techniques. To achieve these goals, 300 breeders were maintained according to the quantitative and qualitative method based on a questionnaire and processed using the Sphinx plus2 software. The results we found that the texts on transhumance are outdated, ambiguous and unknown key stakeholders. Drought, high winds, excessive heat, late and heavy rain are the major weather risks affecting animals. In response to the new climatic conditions, large farmers practicing transhumance pastoralism opportunism traveling great distances.La all surveyed farmers have noticed changes in their course. These changes may be due either to the plant populations on the old lanes (50%), invasion corridors by fields of crops (65%), the drying up a bit faster ponds and streams (32%). The effects of these changes between. It may be noted thereby lengthening the path of periods (65%), insufficient increasingly higher pastures (50%). The results allowed us to identify 12 transhumance routes in the neighboring municipalities of W Park, spatiotemporal dynamics showed that routes have also changed due to conflicts (68%). These changes are reflected in the reduction in grazing areas (58%), longer travel times (25%) and the emergence of new grazing areas (32%). The changes observed in the transhumance routes are part of the coping skills of nomadic herders face the difficulties they face in feeding their animals.

The international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Insertion of the Health Sector and Implications for Foreing Policy

R. Milhomem (Fiocruz, Brasília, Federal District, Brazil)

Abstract details
The international negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: Insertion of the Health Sector and Implications for Foreing Policy

R. Milhomem (1)
(1) Fiocruz, Brasília, Federal District, Brazil

Abstract content

 

 

The scenarios outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and research centers around the world reaffirm the intrinsic relationship between Climate Change and Human Health. Nevertheless, the international negotiations taking place under the United Nations Convention does not fully reflect the concerns, prevention, promotion and recovery of global health. The detachment between the scientific world and the reallity embraces a serious systemic risk that threatens human and planetary survival.

The time is ripe for concrete insertion of Health concerns in climate negotiations. With the creation of the Durban Platform, a new climate protocol is being negotiated, able to determine all future developments in the fight against Climate Change.

In this sense, the interrelationships between domestic and international politics conform to the formation of the international position of a country. Thus, the health sector has the potential to offer successful solutions to the climate negotiations, bringing new complexity able to change the whole structure of the negotiation and its outcome favorably.To this end, this work offers, in addition to these discussions, a number of policy recommendations to be used directly into the climate negotiations, as in the format and language of international treaties.

This is the historical and timing of insertion of Health concerns in discussions on Climate Change, as they determine the success of the agreement and cooperation between countries.

Keywords: Climate Change. Global Health. International Acts. United Nations. Public Policy. International Relations. International Law. International Negotiation.

Climate Change and the use of Serious Games: responses for Neglected Tropical Diseases in Southwestern Amazonia

M. Cesario (Academia Magdala, Franca, São Paulo, Brazil), L. Saturnino (Trinity College Dublin - University of Dublin, Dublin, Ireland), M. Masoodian (University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand), R. R. Cesario (University of Franca, Franca, Brazil)

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Climate Change and the use of Serious Games: responses for Neglected Tropical Diseases in Southwestern Amazonia

M. Cesario (1) ; L. Saturnino (2) ; M. Masoodian (3) ; RR. Cesario (4)
(1) Academia Magdala, Franca, São Paulo, Brazil; (2) Trinity College Dublin - University of Dublin, School of computer sciences - o'reilly institute, Dublin, Ireland; (3) University of Waikato, School of computer science, Hamilton, New Zealand; (4) University of Franca, Medical school, Franca, Brazil

Abstract content

In the Brazilian Amazon Region, Land Use/Cover Change - the main contributor to the national emissions of Green House Gases and, therefore, to climate change – equals to deforestation through anthropogenic forest-fires. The associated biodiversity loss affects the spread of vector-borne Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), due to the susceptibility of infectious diseases’ vectors to environmental degradation, which in turn disrupt natural cycles. Balanced ecosystems, where those natural cycles occur, act as buffer zones between zoonosis and susceptible human populations – the Ecosystem Service known as “Infectious Diseases Regulation”. This paper addresses the potential benefits of using a “serious game” as part of community-based healthcare practices, to educate local citizens and health professionals about ways of controlling and reducing the spread of NTDs in remote regions, especially in the tri-national South-western Amazonia. American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis represents an ideal challenge for the application of complex ludic educational tools, because its complex and poorly understood transmission cycle involves humans, their dogs, insect vectors, sylvatic reservoirs and other domestic animals (chicken, pigs, etc.) that attract both vectors and sylvatic reservoirs to the peri-domicile. The existing efforts to control American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis’ transmission have relied, so far, on the development of either drugs (to break disease transmission with the appropriate treatment of humans and, in some countries, dogs, or to prevent people and dogs being infected, by the use of insect repellents) or vaccines (for dogs, so far). These chemically oriented efforts have helped at a slower pace than the spread of these diseases. Therefore, an effective educational tool to improve knowledge, attitudes and practices related to local people’s living conditions that maintain high levels of American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis’ transmission is challenging and timely, especially for the locals, who suffer the burden of such Climate Change prone Neglected Tropical Diseases. Education was among the first applications of “serious games” and remains an important focus of Information Technology work in this area. This paper introduces a prototype game called Dr Ludens’ LSG (Leishmaniases Serious Game), expected to be the first game of a Doctor Ludens’ series. It focuses on American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, and aims to involve lay citizens and primary health-care personnel in collective tasks around their local community and individual households, where they attempt to decrease vector density and to protect people and dogs against vector bitting. This game can be easily extended to Visceral Leishmaniasis, as well as to other vector-borne endemic diseases, such as Dengue Fever, Chikungunya and Malaria. The design process of the game architecture of the so-called Dr Ludens’ LSG, developed by a multidisciplinary team of computer and epidemiological scientists, is described, as well as a recent evaluation by a group of Leishmaniases’ experts. These researchers have identified several positive aspects of our prototype, as well as suggested a number of improvements to make its future deployment more effective and widespread. The implementation of these suggested improvements is intended to be done before releasing Dr Ludens’ LSG to selected local people at the study region A longitudinal study of its use and potential educational benefits towards the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices of these selected users, in regards to their diseases’ preventative measures, is also envisaged. With the rapid spread of internet connectivity to otherwise remote regions, there is vast potential for application of the new generation of highly connected interactive games to disease prevention and control, by means of education and information campaigns conducted through gaming. When people see, clearly, interconnections between Climate Change and their own lives, including their increasing risk of contracting infectious diseases, they become more likely to adopt a low carbon way of life.

Whether Changing Environmental Conditions of Living negate the impact of Socio-economic Development on Health Outcomes of Urban Poor?

R. Goyal (Ramana Group, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India)

Abstract details
Whether Changing Environmental Conditions of Living negate the impact of Socio-economic Development on Health Outcomes of Urban Poor?

R. Goyal (1)
(1) Ramana Group, -, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India

Abstract content

In recent years, climate change has almost becomes synonyms with development of environmental hazards affecting all living being. The adverse affects are particularly large on those segments of populations where current burden of climate-sensitive disease is high. One such category is urban poor which is characterized by cramp living spaces, lack of sanitation and safe drinking water, poor and unhygienic environmental conditions, poor socio-economic status etc. As a consequence, their major health and morbidity indicators (due to communicable and non-communicable diseases) and mortality rates are higher than other sections of population viz, rural and urban non-poor. It has also been observed that unlike the rural areas, programs to address socio-economic development and healthcare needs in urban poor localities have limited impact on health outcomes. Why? Is it because living environment is quite degraded (inputs are rendered ineffective) or the interventions are not penetrating or accessed by all people to realize any measurable outcome?

 

This paper examines this phenomenon by taking India as a case. It compares the health outcomes for urban poor and non-poor in contemporary Indian communities against the socio-economic and healthcare developments, over a period of one decade. It also seeks to answer why development interventions are relatively less effective in case of urban poor, whereas it should have been other way around because urban poor have more intense poverty conditions and even small inputs would have made a difference.

The analysis is based on data are drawn from two large nationwide surveys (NFHS II and III) carried out in 1998-99 and 2005-06 segregated for urban poor (and non-poor) using wealth index (a composite index reflecting on quality of life and possession of household goods).

The findings are likely to provide more insight in to the development programming for urban poor against the backdrop of climate changes. 

Community-Based Heat-Stress Vulnerability Assessment with Monitoring, Social Survey, and Crowd-sourcing Technology for Health Adaptation

S.-C. Lung (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), D.-W. Wang, (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), S.-H. Tu (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), P.-S. Liao (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), M.-C. Chen, (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), S.-W. Chen (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), L.-J. Chen (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), C.-Y. Lin (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), W.-C. Wang, (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), F.-M. Huang, (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan)

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Community-Based Heat-Stress Vulnerability Assessment with Monitoring, Social Survey, and Crowd-sourcing Technology for Health Adaptation

SC. Lung (1) ; DW. Wang, (2) ; SH. Tu (3) ; PS. Liao (3) ; MC. Chen, (2) ; SW. Chen (2) ; LJ. Chen (2) ; CY. Lin (1) ; WC. Wang, (1) ; FM. Huang, (2)
(1) Academia Sinica, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Taipei, Taiwan Province (People's Republic of China); (2) Academia Sinica, Institute of information science, Taipei, Taiwan Province (People's Republic of China); (3) Academia Sinica, Research center for humanities and social sciences, Taipei, Taiwan Province (People's Republic of China)

Abstract content

Increased mortality was observed on heatwave days worldwide in recent years. According to the projected mortality changes in high income Asian countries such as Taiwan in 2030 and 2050 by World Health Organization, the increase in heat-related mortality is the highest compared to mortality change of all other potential causes due to climate change. A proactive heat-stress vulnerability assessment was conducted in support of reducing health risks and formulating health adaptation strategies in Taiwan, with emphasis on community-based heat-stress exposure assessment and response-capacity evaluation using social survey and crowd-sourcing surveys. This presentation showcases scientific findings from this trans-disciplinary research framework using Taiwan, a sub-tropical island, as an example. A novel two-tier heat-stress vulnerability assessment was conducted with multiple innovative facets. First, physical (heat), chemical (air pollution), and social (behavior and response capacity) aspects of vulnerability were assessed with crowdsourcing technology as well as mature methodologies in atmospheric chemistry monitoring/modeling and survey research. Secondly, both direct (heat) and indirect (air pollution) exposure pathways due to temperature were assessed. Thirdly, taking advantages of the bottom-up and top-down approaches, a two-tier framework is adopted to examine important factors and associated physical, chemical, and social mechanisms at the community level as well as to identify the spatial distribution of vulnerable groups and areas at the national level. Fourthly, the controllable factors of exposure to heat-stress and air pollutants and those of individual and community response capacities were targeted so that the health risks can be minimized by either interrupting the exposure pathway or enhancing the response capacity of the stressed population. Lastly, the vulnerability factors studied correspond directly to the respective policy options in social and health promotion programs and heat-warning system establishment so as to facilitate the science-policy dialogue. Recommendations for health adaptation strategy were made accordingly to enhance resilience of individuals and communities facing the challenges of more frequent heat waves in the future.

Integrating climate information into decision support tools for public health

R. Lowe (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain), X. Rodó (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Integrating climate information into decision support tools for public health

R. Lowe (1) ; X. Rodó (1)
(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Climate dynamics and impacts unit, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

More frequent and severe extreme climatic events have been accompanied by the accelerated emergence of new infectious diseases worldwide. Infectious disease epidemics directly impact the health of local populations, strain healthcare systems, and cause substantial economic loss. Given climate change, globalisation, increased air travel and connectivity with endemic areas, there is a need to strengthen local resilience to infectious disease threats via innovative decision support systems. Seasonal climate forecasts provide an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information into decision support systems for climate-sensitive diseases. This aids epidemic planning months in advance, for diseases such as dengue fever, cholera and malaria.

 

Here, we present a versatile Bayesian hierarchical statistical mixed model framework, designed to quantify the extent to which climate indicators can explain variations in disease risk, while at the same time taking into account their interplay with observed confounding factors and also intrinsic features of disease dynamics. Using forecasts of climate, timely spatio-temporal probabilistic predictions of disease risk can be obtained, to guide prevention and control activities. The framework can be adapted to model any climate-sensitive disease at different spatial/temporal scales and geographical settings. We provide case studies, quantifying the impact of climate on dengue fever in South America and South East Asia. We also illustrate how model results could be translated into actionable warnings for public health decision makers.

Different heat wave definitions and their association with emergency department visits in seven major cities of South Korea

H. Kim (Seoul National University, SEOUL, Republic of Korea), H. L. Soo (Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

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Different heat wave definitions and their association with emergency department visits in seven major cities of South Korea

H. Kim (1) ; HL. Soo (1)
(1) Seoul National University, School of Public Health, SEOUL, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

BACKGROUND:

On-going climate change is accompanied by an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires, impacting on human health directly and indirectly.

OBJECTIVES:

We examined the association between heat waves and emergency department (ED) visits and estimated the impact of heat waves on emergency department visits in seven major cities of South Korea to understand the health effect of climate change quantitatively. In Korea, heat-wave warning is issued by the weather office if the daily maximum temperatures is expected to be higher or equal to 33℃ for 2 consecutive days. This definition is the same for all cities in Korea. We also would like to evaluate the effect of different definition of heat-wave using city-wise relative temperature rather than absolute temperature.

METHODS:

Different heat waves were defined as having at least 2 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures at or above the 98th percentile for warm season in each city and with daily maximum temperatures at or above 33℃ for all cities. We estimated the relative risks (RRs) of ED visits for heat-related, cardiovascular, and respiratory diseases on heat-wave days compared with non-heat-wave days using city-specific Poisson generalized linear models adjusted for daily mean temperature, relative humidity, day of the week, and time trends. In addition, we used time-stratified case-crossover with 28-day stratum to estimate the increase risk of ED visits associated with heat-wave, then and compared the estimates from time-series analysis with those from time-stratified case-crossover analysis. We also estimated the association between ED and duration of heat-wave with two different definitions using time-series and time-stratified case-crossover analyses

RESULTS:

Heat waves defined as having at least 2 consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures at or above 33℃ for all cities were associated with RRs of 2.79 (95% CI: 1.84, 4.23), 2.19 (95% CI: 1.39, 3.46), and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.11) for heat-related ED visits in Seoul, Gwangju, and overall across all cities respectively, and heat waves defined as at least 2 consecutive days with daily mean temperatures above the 98th percentile for warm season in each city were associated with 2.44 (95% CI: 1.47, 4.06), 2.29 (95% CI: 1.66, 3.16), 1.74 (95% CI: 1.07, 2.82), and 1.80 (95% CI: 1.44, 2.25) for heat-related ED visits in Daegu, Seoul, Gwangju, and overall across all cities respectively. These estimates indicated the significant increases in the number of ED visits on heat-wave days compared with non-heat-wave days with both definitions. Most of estimates suggested positive associations between heat waves and heat-related ED visits and varied among the cities. Most estimates of heat wave risk for cardiovascular and respiratory ED visits were very weaker than those for heat-related ED visits although these findings were not statistically significant. However, the estimates of heat waves risk for cardiovascular ED visits were 1.34 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.63) under 33℃absolute temperature and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.77) under 98th percentile temperature in 65+ year age group. The time-stratified case-crossover analysis produced results similar to those found in the time series analysis for the associations between heat waves and ED visits. The estimated risk for heat-related ED visits for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration was the highest in Seoul with RR of 1.49 (95% CI: 1.29, 1.72), and the estimates of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.17, 1.8

The Effectiveness of Heat Early Warning System in South Korea

J. Ha (Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
The Effectiveness of Heat Early Warning System in South Korea

J. Ha (1)
(1) Korea Environment Institute, Korea adaptation center for climate change, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

Heat early warning system is a first heat-wave measure to cope with the heat wave. And this system has been operating in many countries today. Evaluation of the effectiveness of heat early warning system may be utilized to present a further improvement. And, these days, it has been reported that the operation of heat early warning system brings to a decrease in number of emergency services or deaths related to stroke. The aim of this study is to quantitatively examine the associations between the operation of heat early warning system and the reduction of mortality in South Korea.

In South Korea from 2008 to 2012, heat-waves occurred for a total of 8 times, 26 days. I completed cardiovascular-related death counts in four periods. The four periods were defined as the days in heat-wave and above the threshold, the days in heat-wave and below the threshold, the days in non heat-wave and above the threshold, and the days in non heat-wave and below the threshold. And, the threshold was defined as the temperature at which the risk of mortality begins to increase with increasing temperature.

The daily average of CVD-related death counts were 19.83 and 20.44 for 18 days in heat-wave and above the threshold and 16 days in heat-wave and below the threshold, respectively. In case of 1-day lagged effect, the daily average of CVD-related death counts were 18.28 and 21.13 for 18 days in heat-wave and above the threshold and 16 days in heat-wave and below the threshold, respectively. In summary, the operation of Korea's heat early warning system has a positive effect on bringing a reduction of deaths caused by heat-wave.

Arsenic Contamination in drinking water and Valuing Health Damages: A case study of Bihar

B. K. Thakur (National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India)

Abstract details
Arsenic Contamination in drinking water and Valuing Health Damages: A case study of Bihar

BK. Thakur (1)
(1) National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE), Mumbai, General Management, Mumbai, Maharashtra, India

Abstract content

The present study attempts an empirical investigation on the health effects of Arsenicosis on individuals in the rural areas of Bihar. Systematic random sampling was used for the selection of households and 388 households were selected from Maner and Shahpur blocks of Bihar. We used a field test kit to test the arsenic contamination level of water samples which were collected from each household. The water test results reveal that Maner’s drinking water is more contaminated (excess of iron and arsenic in drinking water) than Shahpur’s. 82.22% of households in the study area are having poor water quality, while 72.42% of households are having excess of arsenic in their drinking water. The mean concentration of arsenic contamination for entire study area, Maner and Shahpur is found to be 89.31 ppb/l, 111.34 ppb/l and 61.93 ppb/l respectively. The study estimates incidence rate of Arsenicosis diseases for three categories of sample: for the entire sample surveyed; for male population; for female population; and found incidence rate as 92.24, 81.53, and 105.22, respectively. The incidence rate of Arsenicosis diseases among female is highest and lowest among male children. We predicted Bivariate (marginal) probability of success in the outcome, which is defined as the probability of observing the Arsenicosis diseases for surveyed household, is estimated and found to be 0.42. Arsenicosis disease is regressed with set of independent variables. Water source found to be significant and positively related to the Arsenicosis diseases. This indicates that the household which is using poor water sources is reporting more cases of illness. This also reveals those who used drinking water from hand tube wells are more vulnerable to the Arsenicosis diseases as most of the sample households draw water from hand tube wells. The study also reveals the awareness is significant and negatively related to the Arsenicosis diseases. It reveals that if household is aware about the water source there is decrease in Arsenicosis diseases. The study also finds doctor visit, work loss, and arsenic level all are significant and positively related to the Arsenicosis diseases. We find arsenic contamination level is significant and positively related to Arsenicosis diseases. This indicates the household drinking water is contaminated more and leads to more cases of Arsenicosis diseases. We also regress defensive activities i.e. water purification on set of explanatory variables. We find per capita income as significant and positively related to household defensive activities on water purification. This indicates that the higher income household installed more water purification devices. Adequate of sanitation is significant and positively related to water purification. This is also same with the per capita income and is an important finding. Depth of the hand tube well is significant and positively related to water purification strategy. This indicates that there are the lesser number of households have deep tube wells. One probable reason to this is that the more the depth of the hand tube well, better the water quality is. Water source and awareness are significant. The study estimates the cost of illness to the household due to contaminated drinking water that comprises treatment cost and wage loss. The study finds that the poor households are more affected than the well off. The annual wage loss cost of treatment and cost of illness for sample households are estimated as INR 2437.92, INR 5942.40 and INR 8380.32 respectively. The total annual cost of illness for both the block is estimated as INR 265979691.6. The defensive activities undertaken by higher income group household are taking water purification while the lower income group household could not undertake the water purification. The cost of illness may be taken as the willingness-to- accept by the affected household. Therefore, providing safe drinking water benefits both social and economic value. The results of the present study indicate that water source and awareness are the two most significant factors on both illness and defensive activities. Due to lack of alternative safe water sources, the households are left with no choice but to use the existing available source for drinking water. The government may use various channels to make the households aware that safe water is a fundamental right. Therefore, piped water may be an effective alternative water supply to all the households. The result of this study would provide policy inputs to the policy makers to make their strategies more effective in providing drinking water which may help to reduce the Arsenicosis in a cost-effective and sustainable manner.  

Assessing Health Vulnerability to Climate Change in Morocco: Governance and Adaptation Options

K. Kahime (Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University of Marrakesh, Marrakesh , Morocco), B. Mohamed (Head, Research Laboratory on Territorial Governance, Human Security and Sustainability (LAGOS), Agadir, Morocco)

Abstract details
Assessing Health Vulnerability to Climate Change in Morocco: Governance and Adaptation Options

K. Kahime (1) ; B. Mohamed (2)
(1) Faculty of Sciences Semlalia, Cadi Ayyad University of Marrakesh, Laboratory of ecology & environment, Marrakesh , Morocco; (2) Head, Research Laboratory on Territorial Governance, Human Security and Sustainability (LAGOS), Public law department, faculty of law, economics and social sciences of agadir, Agadir, Morocco

Abstract content

The climate factor plays an important role in most systems critical to life. Its considerable effect on many physical and biological systems has the potential to increase humans’ vulnerability to climate change. Among these vulnerabilities, human health is highly considered. Actually, and in addition to the health risks of extreme climate events, many infectious diseases are expected to change their geographical or seasonal patterns and incidence due to climate change and variability. More specifically, climate change will likely affect the distribution, prevalence and lifecycle of several vector-borne diseases – such as Malaria and Leishmaniasis – and water-borne diseasessuch as Schistosomiasis. These disregarded diseases still ravage lives covertly in many parts of the Global South and are likely to be a major human health burden in the coming years due to climate change and other factors. However, and despite this alarming fact, there is still limited specific scientific evidence in this area that can serve as a relevant reference for policy-making processes in many countries.

In Morocco, infectious diseases are still a public health problem. Despite the adoption of a related domestic policy and the consideration of these diseases as reportable, the number of reported cases – both indigenous and imported – is constantly increasing. Given the knowledge gap in this area, the aim of this research is twofold: 1) Undertaking a vulnerability analysis of possible climate change impacts on infectious diseases in Morocco from an eco-epidemiological and socio-economical approach; 2) Assessment of Morocco’s adaptive capacity and identification of existing gaps which may affect the health security of population in the future with regard to infectious diseases and their interactions with climate change. Throughout the analysis, the policy options needed to effectively monitoring and managing climate change impacts on human health – with a focus on adaptation options specific to Moroccan context – will be highlighted.

Inuit Traditional Knowledge for Adapting to the Health Effects of Climate Change

J. Petrasek Macdonald (McGill University, Montreal, Canada), J. Ford (McGill University, Montreal, Canada), S. Chatwood, (University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada), W. A. Cunsolo (Cape Breton University, Sydney, Canada), V. Edge, (University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada), K. Farahbakhsh, (University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada), C. Furgal, (Trent University, Peterborough, Canada), S. Harper, (University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada), I. Mauro, (University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Canada), T. Pearce, (University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Australia)

Abstract details
Inuit Traditional Knowledge for Adapting to the Health Effects of Climate Change

J. Petrasek Macdonald (1) ; J. Ford (1) ; S. Chatwood, (2) ; WA. Cunsolo (3) ; V. Edge, (4) ; K. Farahbakhsh, (4) ; C. Furgal, (5) ; S. Harper, (4) ; I. Mauro, (6) ; T. Pearce, (7)
(1) McGill University, Geography, Montreal, Canada; (2) University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada; (3) Cape Breton University, Sydney, Canada; (4) University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada; (5) Trent University, Peterborough, Canada; (6) University of Winnipeg, Winnipeg, Canada; (7) University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, Australia

Abstract content

The Inuit Traditional Knowledge for Adapting to the Health Effects of Climate Change (IK-ADAPT) project was launched in May 2012.  Funded through the Canadian Institutes for Health Research (CIHR), IK-ADAPT combines scientific research and Inuit traditional knowledge to develop an evidentiary base to inform policy and programming needed to adapt to the health effects of climate change. Working with Canadian Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, the Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Nunatsiavut, as well as knowledge users at multiple levels, the project is examining ways to preserve, promote, and disseminate Inuit knowledge in order to prevent, prepare for, and manage the health impacts of climate change. Having just come to the end of its final phase, this presentation provides an overview of the project, shares results from projects conducted under IK-ADAPT, and identifies next steps for enhancing the resilience of communities and northern health systems in light of a rapidly changing climate.

Impact of Climate Change on Influenza Mortality in US: A Generalized Additive Model Analysis

S. Dasgupta (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Venezia, Italy), I. Wing, (Boston University, Boston, United States of America)

Abstract details
Impact of Climate Change on Influenza Mortality in US: A Generalized Additive Model Analysis

S. Dasgupta (1) ; I. Wing, (2)
(1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Venezia, Italy; (2) Boston University, Dept. of earth & environment, Boston, United States of America

Abstract content

Each year approximately 5-20 percent of US residents suffer from influenza and more than 200,000 are hospitalized (CDC, 2014). The effect of annual influenza on the health care system is rather substantial, 3.1 million hospitalized days and 31.4 million outpatient visits with direct medical costs estimated at over $10 billion (Molinari, 2007). The influence of weather and climate on influenza transmission and mortality has been studied in a variety of ways and with varying levels of complexity, especially in epidemiology, however, there is little robust empirical evidence. Exposure to extreme temperatures and/or extreme humidity levels increases the risk of mortality mainly through impacts on our cardiovascular and respiratory systems. Epidemiological studies (Barecca and Shimshack, 2012; Deschenes and Moretti, 2007; Lowens, 2007; and Martens, 1998) state that colder temperatures have greater influence on mortality than warmer temperatures but hot temperatures are more likely to affect the inter-temporal distribution of mortality by expediting the time-to-death of those individuals already nearing death. Humidity can also affect human health through a variety of mechanisms. Low humidity levels can lead to dehydration and increase the spread of influenza (Lowen et al., 2007; Shaman and Kohn, 2009; and Xie et al., 2007), while high humidity levels exacerbate the effects of heat stress because humidity impairs the body’s ability to sweat and cool itself (Ahrens, 2009). Low humidity conditions, which are often accompanied by low temperatures, enhance survival times of viral aerosols (Loosli, 1943; Harper, 1961; and Schaffer, 1976). This paper utilizes generalized additive models (GAM) which includes a link function g(.) relating the mean μ to the linear predictor . The general form is;                            g(μ) =

Essentially, GAM is a nonparametric extension of generalized linear models (GLM), used often for the case when there is no a priori reason for choosing a particular response function and the response functions needs to be generated from the data itself. GAMs (Hastie and Tibshirani 1986, 1990) are semi-parametric extensions of GLMs; the only underlying assumption made is that the functions are additive and that the components are smooth. A GAM, similar to a GLM, uses a link function to establish a relationship between the mean of the response variable and a smoothed function of the explanatory variable(s). The idea behind using smooth functions is to removes the small variations while maintaining the major trend of each variable with a view to increase the efficiency in estimating the model. The non-parametric of GAM means that it does not assume a rigid form for the dependence of the response variable on the predictors. Another strength of GAMs is their ability to deal with highly non-linear and non-monotonic relationships between the response and a set of explanatory variables.

Our results provide robust evidence of non-linear impact of both temperature and humidity on influenza mortality rates. The risk of influenza mortality is highest between minimum temperatures of −30°C and −10°C and declines as the minimum temperature goes above 8°C. In the case of maximum temperature, the risk of influenza mortality is highest in the range of −15°C and 5°C, while the effect of minimum specific humidity is highest between 5 g/kg and 20 g/kg. The medical and epidemiological literature suggests that dry conditions result in moisture losses and lead to dehydration and increases spread of influenza by increased viral shedding (Salah et al., 1988; Loosli, 1943; Harper, 1961; and Schaffer, 1976). Results also suggest that influenza mortality is insensitive to high temperature levels. When considering the mean temperature and mean specification our results indicate that the highest risk of influenza mortality is between −20°C and −10°C and for mean specific humidity, the risk is highest between 7.5 g/kg and 15 g/kg. This range is particularly significant as Lowen et al. (2007) reports that the infection and transmission of influenza virus is highly efficient at relative humidity (RH) of 65 percent - equivalent to specific humidity of 11.3 g/kg, is within this range. Thus, our findings provide empirical evidence to epidemiological experiments. These results provide comprehensive empirical evidence influential epidemiological works under laboratory condition by Cannell et al. (2008), Lofgren et al.(2007) and Lowen et al. (2007).

Modelling adaptation in climate change impact assessments of heat-related mortality

S. Gosling (International Society of Biometeorology (ISB), Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom), D. Hondula (Arizona State University, Phoenix, United States of America)

Abstract details
Modelling adaptation in climate change impact assessments of heat-related mortality

S. Gosling (1) ; D. Hondula (2)
(1) International Society of Biometeorology (ISB), Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom; (2) Arizona State University, Center for policy informatics, school of public affairs, Phoenix, United States of America

Abstract content

The potential for populations to respond to warmer temperatures under climate change scenarios by adaptation means that non-stationary heat-related mortality models should be applied in climate change impact assessments. However, there remains a long-standing debate as to how the adaptation response, which includes physiological acclimatisation as well as a range of behavioural adaptations, should be modeled in these assessments. The relatively limited state of knowledge on how populations may adapt to a warmer world, as well as limited knowledge on the extent to which populations may adapt, means that some climate change impacts assessments do not account for adaptation response at all. Such an approach is unrealistic and zero adaptation is improbable. Nevertheless, numerous studies have adopted this simplistic approach because there is no uniformly accepted method for modelling adaptation. Other studies have attempted to consider adaptation response by employing statistical methods, of varying complexity, including regression techniques that control for historical adaptation, interpolation of present vulnerabilities to the future, and the application of “analogue” cities whose present climate best approximates the estimated climate of a target city as expressed by climate model projections. Even considering the existence of these disparate approaches, there has to date been no comprehensive comparison of them. In turn this has precluded the development of a standard and commonly applied technique for modeling adaptation in heat-related mortality climate change impact assessments. We outline an ongoing study that aims to compare a number of approaches for modelling adaptation by using a consistent set of input data and temperature-mortality models for several cities, with a means to understanding the relative merits of the different approaches. An ambitious goal of our research project is to recommend a standard method that may be adopted by future climate change impact assessments of heat-related mortality and to this end address an important gap in knowledge and techniques on health responses to climate change. 

Adaptation pathways for inland aquaculture in northern Thailand

L. Lebel (Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand)

Abstract details
Adaptation pathways for inland aquaculture in northern Thailand

L. Lebel (1)
(1) Chiang Mai University, Unit for Social and Environmental Research, Chiang Mai, Thailand

Abstract content

Background: Aquaculture systems are likely to be impacted by changes in climate; not all impacts are expected to be negative, and in some situations aquaculture may become an alternative to land-based agriculture.  Most aquaculture systems, however, are vulnerable to water scarcity, and their interactive effects on water quality, as well as extreme floods, storm surges and sea-level rise. Inland aquaculture in Northern Thailand is important for livelihoods and a significant economic activity that is sensitive to climate variability and water management.  Aquaculture production for commercial purposes, as well as direct consumption, takes place in earthen ponds, and in cages in rivers and reservoirs. Adaptation pathways with inland aquaculture in Northern Thailand are needed which allow reasonable actions to be taken now, for instance, to strengthen management of climate-related risks, while also leaving flexibility in households, and the sector as a whole, for adjustment of strategies in the future.

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to report on the findings of the AQUADAPT research and assessment process to: (1) identify the key sensitivities of inland aquaculture systems to climate-related risks; (2) assess farm household efforts to manage those risks under current climate variability; and (3) apply this understanding to identify strategies for building the resilience of aquaculture social-ecological systems, and in developing plausible, context-specific, adaptation pathways for aquaculture in northern Thailand. 

Methods:  Combination of new research, review of past work, expert synthesis and participatory, local assessments, was used. Four qualitative climate change scenarios – wetter, drier, more seasonal, and less seasonal – were constructed, based on a set of downscaled climate projections for 2040-2059, to capture key uncertainties in future climate in northern Thailand. Scenarios were also developed for water and fish demand to complement the four for climate yielding a total of 16 combinations or final scenarios. These 16 scenarios were used to explore the robustness of proposed adaptation strategies at various levels, and construct alternative adaptation pathways.

Results:  Adaptation measures or strategies are being pursued, or have been proposed, at the farm (household), watershed (community) and sector (national) levels. At farm level the focus is on rearing practices and business management. At the watershed level important actions relate to sharing of warning information, and the formation of fish farmer’s groups to influence water resources management. At the sector level insurance, voluntary standards, and investments in  research and development are frequently recommended. Examples of measures emphasizing the management of specific climate risks, as well as broader strategies for building resilience of the aquaculture social-ecological system, were found at each level. The emerging adaptation pathways for aquaculture include some contradictory elements reflecting uncertainties about effectiveness, differences in development ideologies and expectations for the sector. Either way, it is clear that adaptation strategies need to be integrated with other efforts to improve sustainability, for instance, encouraging best practices in disease management or waste water treatment and disposal

Significance: Identifying adaptation pathways for aquaculture in northern Thailand, in particular, and in the tropics or subtropics, more broadly, seems plausible as key species can be reared in a broad range of systems in the warm waters and the sector has significant capacity for self-organization and innovation. At the same time there are widespread concerns about the availability of suitable quality water for production in the future, underlining the importance of sustainability of water use and aquaculture practices to adaptation.   Public sector support for building climate resilience of aquaculture industry in northern Thailand should: (1) strengthen the knowledge foundations for adaptation; (2) support improvements in the management of climate-related risks under current climate variability; (3) improve water and watershed management; and, (4) acknowledge in policy and planning that adaptation will need to be context specific. 

Linking Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia and the Pacific

L. A. Stevenson (Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), Kobe, Japan)

Abstract details
Linking Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia and the Pacific

LA. Stevenson (1)
(1) Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN), APN Secretariat, Kobe, Japan

Abstract content

Climate change adaptation is receiving increased attention, particularly among developing countries. As part of the work under the Cancun Adaptation Framework, UNFCCC Parties established the Warsaw International Mechansim for Loss & Damage associated with Climate Change Impacts at COP19 to consider approaches to address loss & damage associated with extreme and slow-onset events, particularly for countries most vulnerable to climate change.

 

Under its Climate Adaptation Framework, the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research is addressing adaptation through approaches that support research, data collection, enhanced coordination, enhanced regional cooperation and strengthened institutional arrangements. Specifically, the APN launched a special focussed activity that aims to link climate change adaptation (CCA) with disaster risk reduction (DRR) and loss & damage (L&D). A series of projects are underway that are addressing such issues as the risk of slow onset events, economic and non-economic L&D, CCI on most vulnerable, approaches to slow onset and extreme weather events, integrating slow onset and extreme events into climate resilient development processes, and how climate change is affecting patterns of mitigation, displacement and human mobility.

 

The presentation will provide an overview of how APN's Climate Adaptation Framework is responding to climate change challenges by providing a flavour of the fifteen projects currently underway in the Asia-Pacific region, all of which are undertaking regional-based research activities and/or capacity building with specific foci on linking CCI, DRR and L&D. The session will then go into more detail by providing information and important outputs to date from projects being conducted in South and Southeast Asia.

 

Topics covered will include:

 

(1) major low-lying coastal cities Southeast Asia that are severley impacted by severe flood events and how sectors, such as agriculture, in these areas will face increased challenges as impacts of extreme events are projected to worsen;

 

(2) solutions-oriented research outputs of how best to integrate climate change adaptation with disaster risk, particularly for slow onset events; and

 

(3) work being undertaken to address the important need to integrate adaptation to climate change into development planning in policy- and decision-making communities.  

Climate Change, Episodic Drought, and Valley Fever Epidemic in California

M. Matlock (University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States of America)

Abstract details
Climate Change, Episodic Drought, and Valley Fever Epidemic in California

M. Matlock (1)
(1) University of California Irvine, Public Health, Irvine, CA, United States of America

Abstract content

Valley Fever (Coccidioidomycosis) is a reemerging infectious disease that is endemic to the southwest United States (California, Arizona, Utah, Texas, Nevada, and New Mexico), Mexico, Central America, and South America. The disease results from inhalation of spores from soil fungi Coccidioides immitis or Coccidioides posadasii, which typically occur in separate regions but manifest the disease similarly. Environmental factors associated with low elevations, sandy soil, and less than 20 inches of rain per year favor the persistence of the fungi and risk of infection. The recent increase in incidence of Coccidioidomycosis in several California counties has been attributed to large amounts of dust due to several years of drought followed by rainy seasons. However, no research has been conducted to unpack the complex linkages between climate change, soil fungal diversity, and social conditions that lead to human vulnerability Coccidioidomycosis. We are investigating communities in the deserts of the Southwest United States, such as Borrego Springs, California, as part of the “front line” of global climate change and regional drought mitigation. Borrego Springs faces an impending water crisis, with some studies suggesting the town will run out of economically viable water within 30 years. With El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions expected to bring rain to the region after a prolonged drought, we hypothesized significant increase in the incidence of Coccidioidomycosis. The unknown risk of Coccidioidomycosis, the longevity of infection, and the lack of proper diagnosis are expected to contribute to increasing burden of this disease in the region. This study further explores local and regional health responses, and the challenges associated with linking Coccidioidomycosis climate change impacts and adaptation in California. The study tests hypotheses linking Coccidioidomycosis incidence to soil moisture and seasonality for California communities. The study addresses barriers, benefits, risks, and trade-offs of these local health responses and we discuss the integration of climate mitigation and adaption options to reduce the negative impact of climate change on Coccidioidomycosis prevalence in a vulnerable community.

Assessment of health-related impact of climate change in Taiwan

C.-C. Chen (National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Miaoli, France)

Abstract details
Assessment of health-related impact of climate change in Taiwan

CC. Chen (1)
(1) National Health Research Institutes, Institute of Population Health Sciences, Zhunan, Miaoli, France

Abstract content

Objective: To provide a general framework of health impact assessment due to climate change in Taiwan. Health impacts such as heat or air pollution-related mortality and hospital admissions of cardiovascular disease and respiratory diseases, variability of meteorological factors on the dengue fever and diarrhea incidents, will be assessed for the projected climate change in 2020 to 2050.

Methods: Meteorological records during the past few decades will be collected from the Data Bank for Atmospheric Research of Taiwan. Hospital admissions and mortality data will be obtained from the National Health Insurance (NHI) dataset and Multiple Cause of Death Automated Data Entry System. Environmental monitoring data will be obtained from the Taiwan EPA website. The comparative risk assessment (CRA) method of the World Health Organization will be employed for comparisons of risk factors (such as frequency and intensity of extreme heat waves, storms, and droughts) and climate-sensitive health outcomes. Dose-response relationships for baseline climate during the period 1990-2010 will be determined and climate-attributable burden of disease (the numbers of deaths and disability adjusted life years, DALYs) for different climate scenarios predicted for the future period 2020-2050, as well as avoidable burden resulting from the effects of mitigation of GHG will be estimated. Quantitative statistical methods will be developed for uncertainties in the health impact assessment.

Balancing Consumers' Satisfaction with Water Quality and Reducing Energy Use: A Case Study in Japan

V. Shinde (Asian Institute of Technology, Bangkok, Thailand), N. Hirayama (National Institute of Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), S. Itoh (Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan)

Abstract details
Balancing Consumers' Satisfaction with Water Quality and Reducing Energy Use: A Case Study in Japan

V. Shinde (1) ; N. Hirayama (2) ; S. Itoh (3)
(1) Asian Institute of Technology, Water Engineering and Management, Bangkok, Thailand; (2) National Institute of Environmental Studies, Centre for materials cycle and waste management, Tsukuba, Japan; (3) Kyoto University, Environmental engineering department, Kyoto, Japan

Abstract content

Japan ranks fifth among the countries that produce the highest Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions (UNFCC, 2012). In light of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, the country has revised its GHG reduction targets to 3.5% in 2020 from 2005 levels. The Fukushima disaster led to the shutdown of atomic power plants leading to rise in the use of fossil fuels, which makes this reduced target also look daunting. Although the water supply sector in Japan accounts for less than 1% of the total emissions, it is important for this sector to reduce energy use since it is only through collective contributions of all sectors that the GHG reduction vision can be achieved.

Japan has a well-developed water supply system and over the years, there has been a systematic progress in the nature and type of water treatment. However, in recent years the consumers’ expectations of water quality in Japan have been on the rise. A survey conducted in Osaka by the authors in 2007 revealed an increase in the number of complaints with regard to water quality in the last decade, suggesting a decline in Consumers' Satisfaction with Water Quality (CSWQ). CSWQ can be improved with advanced water treatment like membrane filtration, ion exchange etc., but the energy requirement for such processes is high. Hence, it is difficult for the utilities to meet the GHG emission reduction targets as well as maintain/improve CSWQ. There is a need to arrive at an optimal balance between the two, which is the objective of this study.

The rationale behind the study’s methodology is to link the energy source with CSWQ so that when scenarios of reduction in energy use are considered, corresponding changes in the CSWQ can be observed. Data required for this study was procured from Kobe City Waterworks Authority (KCWA), Japan. The study involved three distinct stages:

(a) Evaluating CSWQ: An internet based questionnaire survey was used to assess the CSWQ, in which respondents were asked to evaluate eight items. Factor Analysis was then performed to quantify CSWQ, as presented in Equation 1.

CSWQ  = (0.347 x Trust in water utility) + (0.313 x Good quality water) + (0.197 x R&D in water utility) + (0.162 x Equity of distribution) + (0.144 x Price of water).....................(1)

(b) Developing a mathematical model to link CSWQ with energy use:  To do so, a two-step procedure was followed. In the first step, ten services areas were chosen from where maximum questionnaire responses were received, and the CSWQ for each area was calculated using Equation 1. After this, for the same service areas the magnitudes of selected Performance Indicators (PIs, developed in our earlier study) of water supply delivery— Financial Sustainability (FS), Green Water Supply (GWS) and Economic Value of Water (EV)—were evaluated. The relationship between the CSWQ and the PIs was then established using multiple linear regression, (Eqn 2).

CSWQ = 2.083  – 0.004 FS – 0.001 GWS + 0.001 EV..................................................(2)

In the second step, relationships of the PIs with energy use were established. To do so, a series of models were developed. For KCWA, the main source of GHG emissions is due to energy use (power). Hence, the first model, Model 1, was developed to relate the GHG emissions with Power Consumption (PC), using appropriate emission factors. A second model was developed to relate PC and water production volume (eqn 3), and water production volume was linked to the three PIs through models 3, 4 and 5 (Eq 4, 5, and 6).

Model 2: Water production volume = 1.75 + 2.68 x 10^ -3 Power Consumption............(3)

Model 3: Financial Sustainability = 2.07 – 5.34 x 10^-3 Water production volume.........(4)

Model 4: Green Water Supply = 4.78 – 0.14 Water production volume.........................(5)

Model 5: Economic Value of Water = 17.06 + 0.41 Water production Volume................(6)

(c) Balancing CSWQ and reduction in energy use: In order to do so, five scenarios of reduction in GHG emissions from the base condition (2010 level) were considered: 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25%. On one hand, the reduction in PC required for each scenario was calculated. On the other, the CSWQ for each scenario was calculated using Equation 2, with the corresponding values of the three PIs (using models 1 and 2 consecutively). The optimal GHG reduction is found by equating the two trends. The study revealed that the KCWA can target only 3.5% GHG reduction for balancing CSWQ and reducing energy use.

Fugitive methane emissions from Indian coal mining and handling activities: Estimates and opportunities for its utilization to generate clean energy

A. K. Singh (CSIR-Central Institute of Mining and Fuel Research, Dhanbad, Jharkhand, India), J. Kumar (CSIR-Central Institute of Mining and Fuel Research, Dhanbad, Jharkhand, India), A. Garg (Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Ahmedabad, India)

Abstract details
Fugitive methane emissions from Indian coal mining and handling activities: Estimates and opportunities for its utilization to generate clean energy

AK. Singh (1) ; J. Kumar (1) ; A. Garg (2)
(1) CSIR-Central Institute of Mining and Fuel Research, Methane Emission and Degasification Division, Dhanbad, Jharkhand, India; (2) Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Public systems group, Ahmedabad, India

Abstract content

Fugitive methane emissions from coal mining and handling activities are a prominent source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from India. The total GHG emissions from India’s energy sector were around 1.4 million Gg-CO2 equivalent in 2007, out of which ~34,000 Gg-CO2 equivalent belonged to fugitive emissions from fuel extraction [1]. The fugitive emission estimates calculated mainly by using India-specific emission factors developed by CIMFR suggest that Methane emitted annually to the atmosphere from Indian coal mining and handling systems has gone from 0.555 Tg for the year 1991 to 0.772 Tg in the year 2010.

The Integrated Energy Policy of the Government of India projects that coal consumption in India shall grow at the rate of 6 per cent per year. The current production is projected to touch 630 million ton in 2015 and around a billion ton by 2020. Taking the future projections of coal production and consumption, we also project the future trend of methane emissions from coal mining and handling activities of India.

The methane generated from coal mining and also as coalbed methane has the potential to serve as a clean fuel. There are several opportunities for this methane to play its part in the meeting of sustainable energy demands in India. This is more so relevant with the Indian government showing signs of encouraging clean coal technologies (CCTs). There are several mechanisms for this in the Indian context. This includes:

  1. Coal Mine Methane (CMM): We completed a project recently funded by the US EPA for feasibility of CMM in three major coalfields in eastern India, viz. Jharia, Bokaro and Raniganj coalfields. At first glance, it appears that Kalidaspur and Ghusick collieries in the Raniganj Coalfield, Murulidih, Amlabad, Sudamdih and Parbatpur mines in the Jharia Coalfield and Jarangdih and Sawang collieries in the East Bokaro Coalfield are promising sites for CMM recovery. The measurements and potential for CMM in these mines shall be talked about in details in this paper.
  2. Ventilation Air Methane (VAM): CIMFR, along with Southern Illinois University at Carbondale completed a joint project on VAM utilization in India. We have made some assumptions with the (½) × 10 model, wherein it is assumed that fifty per cent of the CMM resource within a mine boundary can be exploited in 10 progressive years. Our calculations suggest that installation of just two rotary kilns, revenue of US$ 2.8 million can be generated in two years. The details about VAM opportunities shall be covered in detail.
  3. Abandoned Mine Methane (AMM): There has not been any effort to identify the abandoned mines and quantify the AMM resource in India. It is thus, imperative to undertake a study to evaluate the AMM resource potential of the country before any utilization potential is planned.
  4. Coalbed methane (CBM): An estimated potential of 400 BCM of coalbed methane exists in three states alone (Jharkhand, West Bengal and Chhatisgarh). Efforts are already underway for exploitation of CBM in India [2].

Such mechanisms, if employed shall serve as a useful tool to reduce atmospheric emissions as well as to find new avenues of cleaner energy in India. This is even more important because India is naturally devoid of high natural gas reserves and such methods can help in bridging the gap for this.

It is hoped that this paper shall present a useful analysis for policy makers and the industry to get an overview of the scientific status for clean energy in India through methane emissions from coal mines.

 

 

References:

[1] Sharma SK et al (2011), Curr Sci, 101, 405-415.

[2] Garg A et al (2004), Atmos Environ, 38, 1965-1977.

2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change: Emergency Actions to Protect Human Health

N. Watts (Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change, London, United Kingdom), N. Adger (University of Exeter & IPCC (AR5 WGII Chap. 12), Exeter, United Kingdom), J. Blackstock (University College London, London, United Kingdom), P. Byass (Umea University, Umea, Sweden), W. Cai (Tsinghua University, Beijing, China), T. Colbourn (University College London, London, United Kingdom), M. Collins (Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom), P. Cox (Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom), J. Depledge (University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom), P. Drummond (University College London, London, United Kingdom), P. Ekins (University College London, London, United Kingdom), V. Galaz (Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm, Sweden), H. Graham (University of York, York, United Kingdom), M. Grubb (University College London, London, United Kingdom), P. Gong (Tsinghua University, Beijing, China), A. Haines (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London , United Kingdom), T. Oreszczyn (University College London, London, United Kingdom), H. Montgomery (University College London, London, United Kingdom), K. Warner (United Nations University, Bonn, Germany), A. Costello (University College London, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change: Emergency Actions to Protect Human Health

N. Watts (1)
(1) Lancet Commission On Health And Climate Change, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

In 2009, the UCL-Lancet Commission on Managing the Health Effects of Climate Change called climate change “the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”. Five years on, a new multidisciplinary, international Commission has formed to map out a comprehensive response to climate change, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. The Commission represents a collaboration between over 80 European and Chinese climate scientists and geographers, social and environmental scientists, biodiversity experts, engineers and energy policy experts, economists, political scientists and public policy experts, and health professionals – all seeking a response to climate change which is designed to protect and promote human health. 

Nick Watts will present the key messages and recommendations from the Commission’s work.

Impact of Climate Change on Child

Z. Mina (National University of Sciences and Technology, Islamabad, France)

Abstract details
Impact of Climate Change on Child

Z. Mina (1)
(1) National University of Sciences and Technology, School of Social Sciences and Humanities (S3H), Islamabad, France

Abstract content

By: Mina Zamand, submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of MS in Economics degree at the National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Pakistan.

Supervised by Dr. Asma Hyder Baloch, Assistant Professor of Economics, NUST, Pakistan.

Abstract:

Climatic shocks have adverse economic consequences for both developed and developing nations. However, the economic costs are far greater in developing nations which face greater risks and vulnerabilities due to climate change (UNDP, 2007; World Bank, 2010). Given a rise in the incidence of such shocks, recent development literature has attached increasing importance to studying their impacts. For children, climatic shocks exacerbate vulnerability and place them at increasing risk. Specifically, some of the risks include separation from families, deprivation in terms of schooling, adverse impacts on children’s nutrition and learning outcomes, and increased susceptibility to abuse and exploitation. Therefore, studying the impact of such shocks on child welfare is imperative. Children are not only most at risk but early intervention is the most effective means in fostering long-term change.

The particular focus of this study is to analyze the impact of two different climatic shocks: floods and drought, on child human capital across Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam - countries with diverse socio-economic backgrounds. Human capital, in this context, subsumes both child learning and health outcomes. The discussion of the impact of climate shocks on human capital is made in the context of both income and substitution effects and the possibility of a positive climatic shock impact is explored. If the income effect dominates we can expect a negative impact on our outcome variables, while the converse is true if the substitution effect dominates. Additionally, the study aims to elaborate the role of child, parental, household and community characteristics as well as institutional help in buffering these climatic shocks.

The data source is the Young Lives Project* and cross-sectional household data is utilized for the year 2009. The study examines the data on the older cohort of children, whose lives were documented from ages 14 - 15, and covers both urban and rural areas. The enrolment rate and three measures of cognitive ability: Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT), CLOZE test and Mathematics test scores are used as proxies for child learning outcomes. The health outcome variables being studied are the WHO defined Body Mass Index (BMI) z-scores and Height for Age (HFA) z-scores. 

* Young Lives is a 15-year survey investigating the changing nature of childhood poverty in Ethiopia, India (Andhra Pradesh), Peru and Vietnam (www.younglives.org.uk). Young Lives is funded by UK aid from the Department for International Development (DFID) with co-funding from 2010-2014 by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs and from 2014-15 by Irish Aid.

 

Coastal hazards and climate change in the Loyalty Islands (south-west Pacific), multidisciplinary approach

M. Le Duff (University of new caledonia, Noumea, New Caledonia), M. Allenbach (University of new caledonia, Noumea, New Caledonia), P. Dumas, (University of new caledonia, Noumea, New Caledonia), O. Cohen, (University of new caledonia, Noumea, New Caledonia), T. Hoibian, (University of new caledonia, Noumea, New Caledonia)

Abstract details
Coastal hazards and climate change in the Loyalty Islands (south-west Pacific), multidisciplinary approach

M. Le Duff (1) ; M. Allenbach (2) ; P. Dumas, (1) ; O. Cohen, (1) ; T. Hoibian, (3)
(1) University of new caledonia, Cnep, Noumea, New Caledonia; (2) University of new caledonia, Noumea, New Caledonia; (3) University of new caledonia, Ppme, Noumea, New Caledonia

Abstract content

Coastal hazards and climate change in the Loyalty Islands (south-west Pacific), multidisciplinary approach.

This communication presents the objectives and preliminary results of a study concerning the evolution of atoll’s coastlines with climate changes and their social involvement. This work is carried out in the southwest Pacific and is funded by the Government of New Caledonia, the European Union (Program INTEGRE) and the French Ministry of overseas territories (Program MOM). In order to provide some guidelines for the Ouvea (Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia) stakeholders involved in costal risks management, a dual methodological approach is undertaken to understand the complexity of the relationships between social and physical processes associated to coastal evolution of atolls with climate changes.

Concerning the physical process, the geomorphologic vulnerabilities of islands are first studied in relatively large spatial and temporal scales, using diachronic analysis of aerial and satellite imagery of Ouvea Island over the last 60 years. At the same time, a monitoring of current coastal sediment dynamics is realized on the sandy shores of the Island. A continuing survey over two years is planned on the main beaches of the Island, which strongly suffer from erosion processes. The goal of this survey is to obtain in-situ data concerning the impacts of rapidly evolving phenomena such as cyclones, tsunamis, tornadoes, or blows. As an example, we will present a quantified analysis of the impact on the northern part of Ouvea Island after the passage of the cyclone PAM (Category 5, 894 mbar, mid-March 2015) that hits the Vanuatu archipelago, which is close to Loyalty Islands. The topometry measurements are performed through two approaches: (1) various specific and expensive methods (DGPS, Photo restitution from aerial surveys by UAV) and (2) less sophisticated methods (up to the frame, site level) less precise but less expensive and without requiring specific technical skills, allowing the involvement of local people. In a Pacific area bereft of resources, the purpose is to provide methods to survey environmental phenomena affecting small isolated islands. The aim of this approach is to initiate a participatory monitoring program of the coastline. Training observers throughout this project, coupled with the creation of wide information campaigns / awareness raising and maintaining a strong link with the local administrative structures and tribal representatives are essential for long term success in Oceania. This approach is particularly vital for theses islands, where the land planning and management is almost exclusively under tribal authorities. Therefore, it is essential to involve people in the implementation of these strategies. The recognition of tribal law in New Caledonia prohibits any top-down or bottom-up process in management.

Another aspect of the method is the creation of a quantitative and qualitative database of extreme weather events, such cyclones and tornadoes, based on the processing of historical archives. The aim is to better understand the current evolutions of the region from the perspective of the dynamics of the hazard (time, power, path ...) by providing additional analysis of documents and data, now available to the Caledonian Weather Service. Moreover, we will address vulnerability issues (human, environmental, economic) and capacity and / or resilience strategy developed in societies studied for over 150 years. Mastering these issues related to the past and present social and climate change will help to better understand the abilities of atoll’s stakeholders in terms of adaptation and limitations to which these strategies will be faced by the end of the century. A database of more than 285 extreme weather events that impacted the New Caledonia since 1830 has been established and is being analyzed. The case study of the tsunami of March 28th 1875 to determine the exact impact of this major event on the Loyalty coastlines will be presented.

In conclusion, we point out the importance of developing integrated, holistic approach of coastal dynamics, both from physical and socio-cultural perspectives, and so to provide the best adaptation strategy regarding the evolution of atoll’s coastlines with climate changes.

Chaos in climate change impact estimates

E. Massetti (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States of America)

Abstract details
Chaos in climate change impact estimates

E. Massetti (1)
(1) Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy, Atlanta, GA, United States of America

Abstract content

Global Circulation Models incorporate chaotic dynamics to reflect real-world weather patterns. This implies that extremely small perturbations of the climate system may generate very different weather patterns. Here I show that the SRES climate change scenarios generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) --- ubiquitous in the impact literature --- display strong chaotic dynamics at regional and sub-regional level, at least until 2065. Chaos is triggered by changes to historic forcing in the year 2000 to reflect different emissions trajectories. This suggests that large uncertainty exists on how to link local climate change and global forcing. Furthermore,  short- and mid-term differences in local climate change across different SRES emission scenarios reflect chaotic dynamics rather than different forcing patterns. I show that the "chaos" in the climate scenarios generates a "chaotic" relationship between exogenous forcing and local economic impacts on agriculture. "Perturbed exogenous forcing" model ensemble would resolve this uncertainty.

Northern populations in a changing climate

T. Klimova (North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, Russia), V. Fedorova (North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, Russia)

Abstract details
Northern populations in a changing climate

T. Klimova (1) ; V. Fedorova (1)
(1) North-Eastern Federal University, Research Institute of Health, Yakutsk, Russia

Abstract content

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) located in the north-eastern part of the Asian continent. On an area of 3083.523 sq. km is home to about one million people. The indigenous population of the region (Yakuts, Evens, Evenks) is about 53% of the total population. Territory of Republic belongs to the zone with the uncomfortable conditions for living of the population. The main environmental factors are cold exposure, temperature, violation of photoperiodic, geomagnetic, gravitational perturbations and deficiency of trace elements. According to a research, the indigenous population of the northern territories in the process of adaptation to extreme environmental conditions to formulate and institute specific features of the constitution and metabolism to ensure efficient functioning of all body systems. These features of the northern populations of researchers attribute the high density of the body, a relatively strong development of osteo-muscular component of the body, increased fat metabolism, high reserve capabilities of the antioxidant system, increasing the basal metabolic et al. At present, the processes of industrialization and urbanization, accompanied by psycho-emotional stress, changes in diet and lifestyle, lead to the failure of established mechanisms of evolutionary adaptation to extreme factors and lead to the development of pathological conditions. About stress adaptation reserves of the organism under the influence of complex environmental factors and suggest low life expectancy, high rates of morbidity and mortality among the population of northern regions. That is, these populations carry the double burden of the adverse effects of both natural and socio-economic factors affecting health. In terms of the future of climate change, these groups are among the most vulnerable. Climate warming is expected to change in the spectrum of diseases, increase the proportion of infectious diseases, the number of cardiovascular events, of stressing factors, the changing of nutrition. Therefore it is necessary to forecast possible trends in health and consider possible measures to maintain the health and life of humans.

Native American Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and the Emergence of Federal Mitigation Strategies

S. Day (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, United States of America)

Abstract details
Native American Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and the Emergence of Federal Mitigation Strategies

S. Day (1)
(1) University of New Mexico, School of Public Administration, Albuquerque, NM, United States of America

Abstract content

Native Americans in the United States face a variety of existential threats due to climate change.  This paper presents a typology of the specific vulnerabilities these groups face, and explains why they are unique groups when it comes to programs to mitigate the effects of climate change.  The variety of climate change vulnerabilities include the well-documented problem of sea level rise and its effects on coastal communities, impacts of drought on such things as water availability and agriculture, increased riparian flooding due to shifts in rainfall patterns and vegetation change, and cultural impacts stemming from the loss of hunting and fishing for migratory species.  Vulnerability patterns are furthermore complicated by the fact that the 566 federally-recognized Native American tribes vary considerably in terms of their populations, land areas, and resultant population densities.  As semi-sovereign governments with land assets held in trust by the federal government of the United States, these groups represent an interesting problem for climate change mitigation, in that the federal government has specific obligations towards the protection of these groups.  What this means for climate change mitigation is unclear.  What does the federal government “owe” to a tribe whose land base is under threat due to climate change?  Do certain mitigation strategies pose threats to the cultural and/or social fabric of the group, particularly if mitigation involves relocation?  After providing the basic typology of climate change vulnerabilities faced by tribes, this paper goes on to describe several mitigation programs currently in the implementation phase.  These include federal-tribal land swaps and relocations, as well as renegotiation of water rights.  Thus far, these programs have not been controversial due to the fact that the tribes involved were small in terms of population and land base.  However, I argue that the political feasibility of these types of mitigation strategies are limited by several factors specific to the types of vulnerabilities being addressed.  As an example, the successful negotiation of land swaps and relocation are fundamentally constrained by the availability of federal lands adjacent to affected tribes, and which are not under pressure from additional stakeholders.  As a result, the potential for land swaps as a standard mitigation strategy is likely to be limited to small and geographically remote tribes, as land swaps must contend with the principle that land exchanges must involve equivalent sized tracts of land.  Thus I argue that larger coastal tribes that are closer to more urban areas are thus more vulnerable, both politically and environmentally, than the groups that have thus far been able to negotiate mitigation programs involving land swaps.  The federal response to issues involving water scarcity and other issues, on the other hand, are relatively less well-developed. For instance, while renegotiated water rights accords have strengthened the position of various tribes vis-à-vis other water rights stakeholders, the continued drought throughout much of the American West continues to diminish the total stock of water all users rely upon.  As such, the negotiation of more advantageous water rights does not in and of itself address the vulnerability of certain groups if there is no water to be had.  Furthermore, the political conflicts in such situations are likely to be much more acute than in the other types of climate change issues faced by other Native American groups insofar that all stakeholders over a broader geographic region face the same underlying vulnerabilities.  These type of situations represent zero-sum games and any concessions granted to Native American groups are likely to be perceived as unfair by other stakeholders.  The paper concludes with a series of policy recommendations which suggest that a broad and flexible approach to climate change mitigation should be pursued, one which takes into account the specific type of climate change vulnerability, the physical and demographic characteristics of the tribe in question, the costs involved, and the nature of political opposition towards specific policy proposals.     

The application of scenario planning for decision-making in the face of climate change: issues of scale

S. Serrao-Neumann (Urban Research Program, Griffith University, Brisbane, Australia), D. Low Choy (Urban Research Program, Brisbane, Australia)

Abstract details
The application of scenario planning for decision-making in the face of climate change: issues of scale

S. Serrao-Neumann (1) ; D. Low Choy (2)
(1) Urban Research Program, Griffith University, Cooperative research centre for water sensitive cities, Brisbane, Australia; (2) Urban Research Program, Griffith university, Brisbane, Australia

Abstract content

There is widespread recognition that climate change will affect cities and regions worldwide. Projected impacts of climate change will be spatially non-uniform and the ability of communities to respond to those impacts will also vary significantly. Assisting multi-level decision-making involving climate change adaptation with scenario planning is well placed given the uncertainty related to climate science and projected impacts. This paper seeks to distill lessons on the use of scenario planning involving multi-stakeholders for decision-making related to climate change adaptation. Lessons are extracted based on the development and application of explorative scenarios (multiple plausible futures) by three distinct action-research projects involving different scales of stakeholder engagement in Australia: (i) regional, (ii) community of practice, and (iii) community scales.

The regional scale project focuses on the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI) involving a multi-sectoral investigation of climate change adaptation in the South East Queensland (SEQ) region, comprising the sectors of urban and regional planning, coastal management, physical infrastructure, emergency management and human health. The SEQ region has been identified as one of six vulnerability hotspots to climate change in Australia. The community of practice scale project focuses on planning for climate change adaptation involving regional bodies responsible for natural resources management in the East Coast Cluster of Australia. The East Coast of Australia comprises a wide range of landscapes that will be impacted by climate change, including coastal areas, major catchments and agricultural areas that support two capital cities. The community scale focuses on the recovery phase of the Cardwell community in far north Queensland in the aftermath of category five tropical cyclone Yasi. Tropical cyclones affecting this area are likely to become less frequent but more intense in the face of climate change. At least two scenario planning workshops were conducted for each project to assist in the development and testing of proposed adaptation options. Adaptation options were developed through collaborative planning processes involving a range of stakeholders and aimed to reduce their vulnerability to future climate change impacts.

Findings indicate that at broader scales, such as regional level, exploratory scenarios enable the integration of multi-stakeholder and sector perspectives related to complex challenges such as climate change adaptation for human settlements. In particular, at that scale, scenarios provide opportunities for improved interaction between practitioners and understanding of sector-specific issues. In parallel, community of practice and community scales are better positioned for scoping more specific and tailored adaptation options. However, they lack broader interaction between different layers of actors involved in decision-making therefore hampering stakeholder’s ability to ascertain feasibility and envision the implementation of adaptation pathways. Multi-stakeholder scenarios processes are known to be time consuming given stakeholder’s unfamiliarity with the method. In the community scale project, it was also noted stakeholder’s difficulty in grasping with both multi-dimension challenges related to and longer-term strategic thinking demanded for climate change adaptation.

Probabilistic analysis to improve baseline GHG emission determination in a developing context: The case of Chile

M. Díaz (Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile), R. O´ryan, (Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Santiago, Chile), C. Benavides (Energy Center, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile), J. Mallea (Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile)

Abstract details
Probabilistic analysis to improve baseline GHG emission determination in a developing context: The case of Chile

M. Díaz (1) ; R. O´ryan, (2) ; C. Benavides (3) ; J. Mallea (4)
(1) Universidad de Chile, Centro de Energía - Energy Center, Santiago, Chile; (2) Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez, Centro de innovación en energía, Santiago, Chile; (3) Energy Center, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile; (4) Universidad de Chile, Departamento de ingeniería industrial, Santiago, Chile

Abstract content

In developing contexts, uncertainty in most key variables makes it difficult to establish reliable baseline GHG emissions for the near and medium term future. Scarce information, lack of models and high variability in the main variables are typical in this context. However, these baselines are being increasingly required in the context of international negotiations of the Kyoto protocol and particularly the country must define and declare a baseline and a contribution to mitigation by 2015.

It is common to work with the best information available and obtain a “most probable” scenario, usually based on “reasonable” assumptions of values and trends in key parameters and also to consider extreme cases and assume that these are equally probable, generating scenarios with a wide range of variation in results. Another possibility is using mean values, however in this case, proposals can turn out to be very difficult to reach or affect productive sectors significantly since they may not adequately reflect the existing variability. Depending on the assumptions, a wide range of variation in results can be obtained, making it difficult for policymakers to identify the risks associated to a specific policy.

Probabilistic analysis may be very useful for determining these baseline emissions, incorporating uncertainty in the variables and propagation of uncertainty through the different processes in which they are involved. In particular GDP growth, one of the main drivers of increases in emissions, fuel prices, technology penetration levels are variables frequently used in this estimations. Expert opinion can also be incorporated systematically to improve these information gaps.

For this reason, in this paper we compare the results of a deterministic and probabilistic analysis for baseline GHG emissions in Chile up to 2030, based on the results of the Mitigation Actions Plans and Scenarios (MAPS) project (www.mapschile.cl). Considering the significant uncertainty attached to the main variables involved we establish the relevance for policy-making associated to incorporating uncertainty. Phase 1 and 2 results of this project show, using deterministic analysis, that emissions will increase in the period between two to five times compared to current emissions. Probabilistic analysis allows fine tuning these results and richer conclusions for future policy-making by establishing GHG emissions that are possible to achieve with a given level of certainty. This provides the regulator with more freedom in defining a baseline which he/she will not later regret. Additionally, the results of the importance analysis of uncertainty allow establishing the variables where more information is required for better decision-making.

Social and economic tipping points in adaptation processes: Reason for concern?

M. Garschagen, (United Nations University,, Bonn, Germany), J. Birkmann (Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, Stuttgart, Germany), T. Welle, (Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, Stuttgart, Germany)

Abstract details
Social and economic tipping points in adaptation processes: Reason for concern?

M. Garschagen, (1) ; J. Birkmann (2) ; T. Welle, (2)
(1) United Nations University,, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany; (2) Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany

Abstract content

Tipping points have become popular epistemic elements within the assessment of climate change. The study of tipping points helps decipher the complexity in climate change dynamics. Yet, despite the increasing engagement with tipping points in hazards and expected impacts there has been little work to empirically assess tipping points in adaptive capacity and adaptation processes. Along the same line, tipping points have been linked predominantly to large-scale bio-physical systems (e.g. the instability of large ice sheets and the breakdown of ocean circulation systems). Little attention has, thus far, been paid to potential adaptation tipping points in social and economic systems and at lower scales. Resulting knowledge gaps are particularly relevant for coastal areas and cities where socio-economic change is often rapid, coupled with heightened levels of exposure and vulnerability to climate change hazards.

Through its conceptual and empirical engagement with tipping points in adaptation processes, the paper aims at contributing to a better understanding of potential future adaptation trajectories. The analysis links two scales: First, a global index-based assessment of risk patterns and trends is presented with a national resolution, focusing in particular on the possibility and effect of large-scale adaptation tipping points. Second, an in depth analysis of selected coastal urban areas in Asia, Africa and Europe is presented, drawing on ongoing research projects. The findings suggest that many types of tipping points in adaptation processes and capacities can be observed, spanning across hard and soft aspects (e.g. related to the financial costs vs. political feasibility of certain adaptation measures). A taxonomy of such adaptation tipping points is thus developed and implications for model-based appraisals of adaptive capacity are explored. The paper concludes by discussing epistemological challenges for a future adaptation science as well as practical lessons for risk and adaptation governance (e.g. how to incorporate tipping points into adaptation ‘planning’ or into a global architecture of adaptation financing).

Climate change geo-indicators for policymakers: downscaling for land-use planning in Caribbean Islands

F. Léone (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France), P. Palany (Météo-France, Service Antilles-Guyane, Fort-de-France, Martinique), J.-R. Gros-Desormeaux (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (InEE), Schoelcher, Martinique), M. Morell (BALWOIS, Montpellier, France), P. Cantet (Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture, Aix-en-Provence, France), T. Lesales (CIHENCE, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Climate change geo-indicators for policymakers: downscaling for land-use planning in Caribbean Islands

F. Léone (1) ; P. Palany (2) ; JR. Gros-Desormeaux (3) ; M. Morell (4) ; P. Cantet (5) ; T. Lesales (6)
(1) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Umr 0007 (gred), Montpellier, France; (2) Météo-France, Service Antilles-Guyane, Fort-de-France, Martinique; (3) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (InEE), Umr 8053 (crplc), Schoelcher, Martinique; (4) BALWOIS, Montpellier, France; (5) Institut National de Recherche en Sciences et Technologies pour l'Environnement et l'Agriculture, Ur rhax, Aix-en-Provence, France; (6) CIHENCE, Paris, France

Abstract content

The Lesser Antilles are exposed to major and various hazards (earthquake, volcanism, hurricanes, floods, tsunamis, landslides, etc.).  In a significant context of climate change, a set of institutional responses for the sustainable management of territories is being drafted.  Recent works on the importance of using high-resolution model to study the climate change on small islands by Cantet and al. (2014), underlines the importance of the dynamical downscaling to study the impacts of climate change on the Lesser Antilles. The projections provided by the regional climate model suggest an increase in extreme rainfall events: longer dry periods, a bigger annual total precipitation, more frequent very heavy daily precipitation and a stronger 1 d maximum precipitation, whereas for the driving Global Climate Model, these trends are less intense. Within the framework of the EU Interreg CARIBSAT program, a Multi-natural hazards CARIBSAT GIS was produced by the GRED research laboratory (University of Montpellier, France) and the IRD agency (Institute of Research for Development, Martinique). The aim was to harmonize multiple sources of historical, scientific and geographical information. CARIBSAT GIS is useful to develop several sets of geo-risk and natural disasters indicators: natural hazards activity, human and socio-economic impacts, exposure levels. These geo-indicators are therefore helpful to elaborate territorial diagnosis and comparative risk analysis, at international or regional levels. In the poster, one main question will steer future research: How and by which mechanisms do the actors, who have produced and manage regional knowledge, can participate in drawing up and adapting or changing the frameworks of decision makers final action, mitigation intervention as regards to climate change information?

Transition to sustainability: are normative participatory scenarios a useful tool? Two case studies in the Brazilian Amazon

A. P. Aguiar, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), R. Folhes (UFPA/Université Paris 3 Sorbonne Nouvelle, Belém/Paris, France), A. Coelho (FAPESPA, Belém, Brazil), A. Roberto (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), D. C. Otávio (UFPA, Belém, Brazil), S. Emilie (University of Aberdeen , Aberdeen, United Kingdom), P. Patricia (USP, São Paulo, Brazil), V. Ima (Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Belém, Brazil), B. Mateus (EMBRAPA Meio Ambiente, Campinas, Brazil), T. Peter (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), K. Elza (EMBRAPA Meio Ambiente, Campinas, Brazil), T. Assis, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), E. D. Nora, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), K. Kasper (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), C. Von Randow (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil), B. Kruijt (Alterra, wageningen UR, Wageningen, Netherlands)

Abstract details
Transition to sustainability: are normative participatory scenarios a useful tool? Two case studies in the Brazilian Amazon

AP. Aguiar, (1) ; R. Folhes (2) ; A. Coelho (3) ; A. Roberto (1) ; DC. Otávio (4) ; S. Emilie (5) ; P. Patricia (6) ; V. Ima (7) ; B. Mateus (8) ; T. Peter (1) ; K. Elza (8) ; T. Assis, (1) ; ED. Nora, (1) ; K. Kasper (9) ; C. Von Randow (10) ; B. Kruijt (11)
(1) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (2) UFPA/Université Paris 3 Sorbonne Nouvelle, Belém/Paris, France; (3) FAPESPA, Belém, Brazil; (4) UFPA, Numa, Belém, Brazil; (5) University of Aberdeen , Aberdeen, United Kingdom; (6) USP, São Paulo, Brazil; (7) Museu Paraense Emilio Goeldi, Belém, Brazil; (8) EMBRAPA Meio Ambiente, Campinas, Brazil; (9) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (10) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Ccst, Sao Jose dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (11) Alterra, wageningen UR, Wageningen, Netherlands

Abstract content

Environmental scenarios were largely exploratory in the past decades, mainly at global and regional scales. Normative/backcasting approaches gradually become more popular and more widely applied over the last decade, due to the strongly normative concept of sustainability. Backcasting can be defined as enviosioning a desirable future, and then looking backwards in order to strategize and to plan how that vision of the future could be achieved. Here we present a normative participatory scenario approach conceived to explore what a "transition to sustainability" would mean (and require) in a heterogeneous and conflicting region such as the Brazilian Amazon. Scenario discussion for the Brazilian Amazon has mostly focused on future deforestation trends at broad-scale. In this work, we explicitly included the social dimension in the scenario construction process, enforcing that all the sustainability dimensions (social, environmental and economic) are taken into consideration. Here we present a synthesis of the scenario process and a synthesis of the results of two case studies at different scales.

The first case study was developed on a settlement project in Pará State, with the specific goal to explore how participatory scenario methods could contribute to the strengthening of territorial units, such as indigenous lands, settlement projects, conservation units. At PAE Lago Grande, a multi-scale approach was adopted, involving stakeholders at three communities and representatives of organizations at the settlement level. Thorugh a series of structured workshops, the actions to reach the sustainable/desired future at the several scales were discussed, including the divergence/convergence between the scales. Then, we successfully reproduced a similar approach to the whole Brazilian Amazonia, involving representatives of civil society organizations, productive sector and the Federal Government.

Two contrasting futures for the region (Sustainability and Chaotic/Fragmentation) were built using the same workshop structure as in PAE Lago Grande. In this second case study, besides the qualitative scenarios, selected elements of the resulting storylines were quantified to generate explicit spatially representations of land use in the region in coming decades. The land use scenarios were in turn used by multiple climate, vegetation and hydrological models in the scope of the AMAZALERT project at different research institutions to explore the impacts on the provision of ecosystem services and regional climate in Amazonia. The resulting quantitative scenarios and impacts were then feed backed to the stakeholders, illustrating the outcomes of the stories they envisioned.  

The normative scenario approach we adopted here was conceived as a tool to subside a broader discussion about “the future we want and how to get there”, under the hypothesis that it may favor understanding of diverging points of view, facilitating the collective decision-making process and empowerment. In spite of the well know limitations of participatory methods, we consider the main indication of the potential of the approach the fact that, at the final debate of both case studies, some key stakeholder (from Government, environmental ONG and research institutions) showed interest in replicating the process in other contexts. 

 

The Integrating Assessment Modeling Community: overview, structuring and interactions with the IPCC expertise

C. Cassen (CIRED, PARIS, France), B. Cointe (CIRED, Nogent sur Marne, France)

Abstract details
The Integrating Assessment Modeling Community: overview, structuring and interactions with the IPCC expertise

C. Cassen (1) ; B. Cointe (2)
(1) CIRED, PARIS, France; (2) CIRED, Nogent sur Marne, France

Abstract content

The intellectual debates expressed by the Club of Rome about the “Limits to Growth” (Meadows, 1972) and the oil crisis in the 70s have given rise to energy-environment-economy (E3) models to explore the feasibility of long-term development pathways. The rise of climate change on the public agenda since the late 80s has prompted the need for quantitative assessment of mitigation strategies, in particular in view of the IPCC reports. E3 models gather different types of models, in particular IAMs (Integrated Assessment models). IAMs are simplified, stylized, numerical approaches to represent complex physical and social systems, and the most relevant interactions among the systems (e.g., energy, agriculture, the economic system). From a set of input assumptions they produce outputs in the form of quantified scenarios: energy system transitions, land use transitions, economic effects of mitigation, emissions trajectories. These scenarios are central to the work of the IPCC “Working Group III” on mitigation of climate change, and play an increasingly important part in the negotiation and elaboration of climate policies.

In this paper, we investigate the conditions of the production of such scenarios and the diversity of the models behind them. These models have been developed by an heterogeneous, interdisciplinary community of research. This paper analyses the development and the evolution of this community since the early 90s and provides an overview of the main models and research teams. The climate debate fostered the rise of a new generation of models in the vein of the first global and technico-economic models developed in the 60s and 80s. A main divide in the 90s was between macro-economic models (top-down) and more engineer styles models (bottom up). Bottom-up models give the priority to a detailed description of technologies and sectoral systems, while top-down models represent macro-economic consistency but encapsulate a limited description of technologies. The gap between has narrowed and an increasing number of hybrid models now combine comprehensive top-down representations of macro-economic processes with a technologically explicit bottom-up representation of energy systems.

We explain this narrowing gap as a result of the structuring of the IAM community. How did these models emerge as unified – though diverse – category? How and where did the IAM community organise as such, and what is it made of? This paper stresses the role of intercomparison modeling exercises under the framework of key institutions (for instance the Energy Modeling Forum coordinated by Stanford University, European Framework projects…). It traces the development of an epistemic community which participates, through the production of socio-economic scenarios, to the framing of the assessment of climate policies in group III of the IPCC.  This history of the development of IAM relies on a mapping of existing models and modeling team, on interviews, as well as on an analysis of the content of the research programs conducted in these forums, the material produced (reports, articles, IPCC assessment reports in particular AR4 and 5…).

 

 

Designing experiments for climate prediction

D. A. Stainforth (London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom), J. Daron (UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), S. Harrison, (University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Designing experiments for climate prediction

DA. Stainforth (1) ; J. Daron (2) ; S. Harrison, (3)
(1) London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom; (2) UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) University of Exeter, College of life and environmental sciences, Penryn, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Complicated global circulation models are used to simulate and study the climate system. Increasingly they are also used to make projections of future climate. For instance, the results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (e.g. CMIP5) play a significant role in the IPCC assessment reports and are often used to guide adaptation planning and impacts assessments.

 

Here we will discuss what we mean by climate prediction and to what extent the modelling experiments which are run today, are sufficient to quantify changing climate in the 21st century. We will argue that the design of climate modelling experiments needs to be changed in the light of conceptual understanding in nonlinear dynamical systems theory, and better informed by concepts being explored in the philosophy of science and in approaches to robust decision making.

 

The concept of climate as a changing distribution will be illustrated using a low-dimensional climate-like mathematical system undergoing a forced change. The different roles that uncertainty in initial conditions can play will be discussed and used to illustrate the limitations on the probabilistic accuracy of predictions. It will be argued that today’s ensembles of AOGCMs and ESMs are likely too small to be able to robustly quantify the changing climate within the model itself. This severely limits there value for both scientific understanding and for guiding societal decisions.

 

The implications of model error will be discussed and put in the context of the balance which must be achieved between the study of emergent properties and the use of reductionist models.

 

The consequences of initial condition uncertainty and model uncertainty will be drawn together to argue for a new approach to the design and interpretation of climate models and climate model ensembles; one which requires larger ensembles and greater computing resources but which encourages diversity in models and interpretational approaches mediated by physical understanding rather than statistical post processing. This stands in contrast to arguments which have been made for increasing resolution while reducing the diversity of different models.

 

References:

Daron, J.D. and D.A. Stainforth, On predicting climate under climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 2013. 8.

Harrison, S. and D. Stainforth, Predicting Climate Change: Lessons From Reductionism, Emergence, and the Past Eos, 2009. 90(13): p. 111-112.

Geo-political maps of CO2(s) to facilitate scientific policy and public debate

K. De Pryck (Sciences Po, Paris, France), T. Venturini (Sciences Po, Paris, France), M. Deves (Institute for Globe Physics, Paris, France), M. Robert (University Paris Diderot, Paris, France), A. Reys (Sciences Po Paris, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Geo-political maps of CO2(s) to facilitate scientific policy and public debate

K. De Pryck (1) ; T. Venturini (1) ; M. Deves (2) ; M. Robert (3) ; A. Reys (4)
(1) Sciences Po, Médialab, Paris, France; (2) Institute for Globe Physics, Paris, France; (3) University Paris Diderot, Paris, France; (4) Sciences Po Paris, Médialab, Paris, France

Abstract content

In the last decades, a humble chemical molecule has become one of the most important actors of modern collective life. Carbon dioxide, or CO2, is increasingly used as a key marker for politics and economics both at the national and international level. As such, establishing thresholds for C02 emissions is one of the main objectives of the UNFCCC (United-Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change).

 

This does not means, of course, that the CO2 has passed from the natural to the political sciences. It means that the molecule has assumed a variety of different meanings according to who use it. Chemists, biologists, geologists, soil scientists, physicists, climatologists, all have different CO2 definitions. And their definitions differ from those of the economists, geo-politicians and NGOs and probably even more from perceptions by the public opinion. If we had to design one single CO2 cycle, we would have to erase all these differences to obtain some ‘mean version’ that would be unrealistic.

 

Instead of trying to average these definitions, it would be much more interesting to find ways to compare their different meanings. Each of them designs and represents a specific vision of the world and orientates future policies and actions. For instance, measurements of C02 emissions entail different responsibilities when represented in terms of CO2 per GDP, CO2 per capita or consumption/production-based CO2.

 

We started by exploring the scientific literature and used advanced scientometric techniques to disaggregate and map the references associated with the keywords “CO2” or “carbon dioxide”. Our method consisted in:

  • harvesting thousands bibliographical notices (299.629) mentioning “carbon dioxide” or “CO2” from ISI Web of Science,

  • extracting all the references cited in the bibliographies of such notices,

  • constructing series of co-citation networks (on various time-periods) in which disciplines emerge as tight clusters of references often co-appearing together,

  • projecting the period on maps, together with other chosen metadata such as authors, keywords, subjects, countries and institutions.


A dozen of CO2 landscape maps were obtained showing the evolution of the research landscape concerned with CO2 through space and time. A first result to be discussed is the quick evolution of the key words around which research publications aggregate. Some interesting trends are observed (e.g. rise and fall of CO2 lasers in physics, movement from plant sciences to environmental sciences and the emergence of the climate change issue in the 1980s, development of geoengineering-related disciplines in the 2010s). The maps also highlight the role played by different countries, institutions or individuals in different research fields (e.g US dominance in environmental (and climate) sciences and China's proximity with issues of carbon capture and storage). In order to complement and strengthen our analysis, we invited specialists to comment the maps.

 

At this stage, the quali-quantitative method we developed – empowered by digital computation and guided by expert knowledge – can explicit some of the multiple representations of CO2 from a research perspective. Future works will explore whether the IPCC expertise is really representative of the rapidly evolving research landscape. We believe this exercise to be particularly useful as we approach the negotiating table. 

Climate impacts on adequate human livelihood conditions for well-being and development: framing uncertainties in projections of water availability

T. Lissner (Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany), C.-F. Schleussner (Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany), D. Reusser (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Climate impacts on adequate human livelihood conditions for well-being and development: framing uncertainties in projections of water availability

T. Lissner (1) ; CF. Schleussner (1) ; D. Reusser (2)
(1) Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; (2) Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Climate change vulnerability and the consequent need for adaptation are unevenly distributed in the world and many developing countries are especially vulnerable to changes in climate. Climate change often adds on to existing development pressures that are responsible for low levels of social and economic welfare, increasing the vulnerability of such regions. Climate impacts may substantially reduce the adequacy of livelihood conditions, if adaptation and coping strategies are insufficient. Integrated approaches, including climatic as well as aspects of development are needed in order to identify adaptation requirements, opportunities and co-benefits. Ideally, development strategies as well as adaptation and mitigation should be complementary strategies, working towards improved livelihood conditions and sustainable pathways. The trans-disciplinary concept of "Adequate human livelihood conditions for well-being and development" (AHEAD) provides a conceptual framework for the identification of limitations to adequate livelihood conditions and the consequent need for adaptation and development.  The approach allows addressing several topical challenges of climate impact assessments, such as the integration of concepts from different disciplines, data integration as well as the combination of processes at different scales.  A particular challenge for the assessment of climate impacts and adaptation needs lies in the treatment of uncertainties, which normally multiply along the assessment chain as has been shown by the recent Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The methodological implementation of the AHEAD framework provides a way of dealing with these uncertainties based on the representation of gradual adequacy of conditions using fuzzy logic.

 

To illustrate the utility of the AHEAD approach, we assess the adequacy of AHEAD conditions on a global scale at national resolution. We focus in particular on the availability of water resources in adequate quantity and quality, which plays an important role in meeting human livelihood needs. We use multi-model water resource estimates from ISI-MIP to illustrate, how the approach can provide a way forward in dealing with the substantial uncertainty in projections of water availability. Our results indicate that water availability limits the adequacy of livelihood conditions in some countries today, a situation that will aggravate over the course of the century; however for the majority of countries other aspects limit the adequacy of livelihood conditions. The presented approach shows how uncertainty ranges in modelling results may be framed in a way, which allows assessing their relevance with regard to specific questions. The uncertainty range of data on water availability is considerable for many countries, but for more than a third of the countries this range is outside of critical thresholds for water security and overall AHEAD conditions.

Going beyond integrated assessment: big emitting nations and the 2°C target

A. Bows-Larkin (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom), M. Sharmina, (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom), J. Kuriakose, (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom), K. Anderson (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Manchester, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Going beyond integrated assessment: big emitting nations and the 2°C target

A. Bows-Larkin (1) ; M. Sharmina, (1) ; J. Kuriakose, (1) ; K. Anderson (1)
(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom

Abstract content

This year, the United Nations Conference of the Parties in Paris is tasked with delivering a land-mark agreement on avoiding the 2°C warming associated with ‘dangerous interference with the climate system’.  If such an agreement is reached, it will re-invigorate analyses of how global and national energy systems can deliver the rates of mitigation accompanying the 2°C threshold. Commonly such studies rely on detailed integrated assessment models combining physical and economic relationships to postulate future climate and energy systems. Typically these models optimise on the basis of minimum costs in developing ‘feasible’ scenarios in terms of technology, infrastructure and efficiency change, as well as providing longitudinal outputs related to parameters such as capital costs, carbon tax rates, etc.

 

This paper reflects upon the reliance of decision makers on the outcomes of these models, and their suitability for producing plausible outcomes. One criticism is aimed at their limited ability to explore future societies under the pressures of climate change mitigation and adaptation, given that their economic parameterisations are underpinned by historical relationships fit for a world unperturbed by climate change. A second questions whether their theoretical basis is appropriate for articulating the outcome of non-marginal change, when the very futures they are set up to explore involve non-marginal rates of change; for example radical cuts in CO2, or severe climate change impacts. Quantifying societal responses within such models is a particular challenge.  Finally, these models downplay risks through disregarding low-probability, high-impact events and their consequences, including wars and migration. It is argued here that as currently formulated these tools are unsuitable for modelling the revolutionary transformations necessary to stay within 2°C carbon budgets, or similarly, futures with higher levels of warming and subsequent impacts.

 

To address these deficiencies, this paper takes an alternative approach to contextually explore the ‘possibility space’ appropriate for avoiding 2°C. In contrast to exercises that build future scenarios using ‘immutable’ relationships within and between the energy and climate systems, a more transparent and dynamic framing based on highly constrained cumulative carbon budgets is proposed. Building on previous assessments that use a similar approach by authors Anderson and Bows, this analysis looks beyond the contested ‘Annex 1’ and ‘non-Annex 1’ division to backcast what the remaining CO2 budget implies for the world’s top emitting nations.  The analysis takes the top 25 nations, responsible for 85% of global CO2, and groups these nations on the basis of similarities within their energy systems. Using a range of explicit variables such as short-term CO2 growth, a suite of emission scenarios for these groups are developed, constrained within a range of 2°C carbon budgets. By varying the levels of near-term emissions from each group’s energy system, under a highly constrained CO2 budget, important sensitivities are revealed.  Results demonstrate the significance of the rates of CO2 growth in the highest emitting groups, the importance of short-term change and the relevance of bunker-fuel emissions in shaping our collective futures. They also illustrate that only non-marginal change resulting in radical transitions across all energy systems can now be reconciled with the 2°C policy objective. 

From Static Socio-economic Sensitivity to Interactive Scenarios: New Tools in Support of Climate Change Adaptation Decision-Making

J. Lückenkötter, (TU Dortmund University, Dortmund, Germany)

Abstract details
From Static Socio-economic Sensitivity to Interactive Scenarios: New Tools in Support of Climate Change Adaptation Decision-Making

J. Lückenkötter, (1)
(1) TU Dortmund University, Faculty of Spatial Planning, Dortmund, Germany

Abstract content

For many years long-term scenarios of future socio-economic developments were mostly hidden in the background of climate change impact and vulnerability assessments. At the forefront of scientific studies on climate change were advances of the climate modelling community. Long-term socio-economic scenarios were nevertheless needed as drivers of the underlying emission projections. For this purpose four main ‘storylines’ of demographic, social, economic and technological developments were defined by the IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios. But the socio-economic scenarios of the ‘storylines’ were coarse and remained largely in the background of impact and vulnerability assessments. In fact, the socio-economic sensitivity components of most assessments remained static, i.e. they used only the most recent data on population, economic output and other related indicators. Thus future climate conditions were often related to current (and not future) societal conditions.

Since the SRES scenarios new approaches and methods for demographic and socio-economic projections have emerged. And the IPCC eventually adopted a ‘parallel modelling approach’ allowing climate researchers and social science researchers to develop their models in parallel instead of in a sequential fashion. Social scientists developed a set of ‘shared socio-economic pathways’ that are only loosely linked to different policy assumptions and thus opened up even more flexibility for exploring different socio-economic constellations.

These methodological advances reflect the realization that socio-economic developments are much more open and dynamic and therefore perhaps even more difficult to project than long-term climatic changes. It is also an often neglected fact that socio-economic conditions in most parts of the world have in the past 50 years changed to a much greater degree than have climatic conditions – and this is likely to hold true for the future as well. Thus, the level of future climate change impacts will also be primarily determined by socio-economic changes. Moving from fixed (e.g. the most current) socio-economic sensitivities to a variety of flexible scenarios therefore holds the promise of greatly enhancing impact and vulnerability assessments and applied tools for policy advice. 

This paper reviews examples of recent climate change impact and vulnerability assessments that treat socio-economic sensitivities in different ways – ranging from static status quo to flexible scenarios. A special focus is put on studies that have fully embraced the scenario approach. For example, some recent and ongoing European research projects like CLIMSAVE (Climate Change Integrated Assessment Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe) or CLIP-C (Climate Information Platform for Copernicus) are offering users the ability to interactively explore different socio-economic development trajectories. The paper identifies methodological achievements as well as requirements and opportunities for decision-makers, but also highlights key challenges of these new approaches.

Global and regionalized land uses in 2050: scenarios taking into account climate change

M. De Lattre-Gasquet (CIRAD, Paris, France), T. Brunelle (CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France), P. Dumas (CIRAD, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Global and regionalized land uses in 2050: scenarios taking into account climate change

M. De Lattre-Gasquet (1) ; T. Brunelle (2) ; P. Dumas (3)
(1) CIRAD, DGD-RS, Paris, France; (2) CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France; (3) CIRAD, Cired, Paris, France

Abstract content

How will future changes in land uses - within regions and on a global level – will affect food security, taking into account possible climate changes, as well as changes in cropping and livestock systems, changes in farm structures, rural and urban relations, food regimes as well as changes in the general context.

The Agrimonde-Terra foresight project on “Land use and food (in)security” considers this question. Launched by the French research institutes Cirad and INRA, the Agrimonde-Terra conceptual framework can be used to build land uses scenarios at national and global levels with narratives and quantitative illustrations. At national and regional levels, the foresight process involves a group of diverse stakeholders, and discussions on the direct and indirect causes of land use changes facilitate thinking about the possible futures (anticipation), getting new ideas and understanding different points of view (appropriation) as well as decision-making (action). A first workshop has taken place in Tunisia and land use scenarios have been built.  On top of that, global and regional levels scenarios are built with the support of a Scenarios Advisory Committee and their are the basis for discussions on possible consequences of land use changes on food security. The scenarios have been build combining hypotheses on direct and indirect causes of land use changes, and looking at interactions and retroactions between the variables. The foresight exercice has a wholistic approach..

 

Climate change is one of the important indirect drivers of land use changes. It impacts the food production capacity of ecosystems in several ways. It changes the time maturity of crops, it alters annual yields as well as their inter-annual variability, and it changes the nutritious qualities of crops. As far as climate change is concerned, two contrasted scenarios have been taken into account, focusing on temperature change and biogeochemical cycles. The first scenario, entitled “Stabilization of Global Warming” corresponds to the RCP26 the AR5. The agricultural system does not experience any major change due to climate conditions compared to the current situation. The area of cropland suitable for agricultural production does not notably change compared to the current situation, but the stabilization of anthropogenic emissions requires massive efforts for sequestering carbon in the vegetation which may take the form of afforestation and/or production of bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage, or agro-forestry. Most of the land use changes, however, occur after 2050.  The second scenario entitled “Runaway climate change” corresponds to the RCP 85 of the AR5. The agricultural system experiences strong impacts: there are increases in the area of cropland suitable for agricultural production but it is unevenly allocated as it mainly concerns the northern latitudes while arable cropland areas decrease in tropical regions. The average suitability of cropland areas also decrease significantly.

The combination of the climate change scenarios with scenarios concerning the direct and indirect causes of land use changes show that food