Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

Menu
  • Home
  • Zoom Interactive Programme
Cliquer pour fermer

Wednesday 8 July - 13:00-18:00 UNESCO Fontenoy - MIRO

Posters (list of concerned Posters available here)

Poster

The risk of drought in Ukraine under changing climate in the future medium term

I. Semenova (Odessa State Environmental University, Odessa, Ukraine)

Abstract details
The risk of drought in Ukraine under changing climate in the future medium term

I. Semenova (1)
(1) Odessa State Environmental University, Theoretical meteorology and meteorological forecasts, Odessa, Ukraine

Abstract content

The territory of Ukraine almost every year is exposed the drought of different intensity and duration. The country is belongs to main agricultural area of East Europe, therefore the drought in vegetation season can considerably worsen the productivity of grain crops. As studies shows, the seasonal (or agricultural) drought is the widespread in Ukraine with dominating in spring and summer time. In last two decades the full vegetation season droughts were observed in 1999, 2007, 2009 and 2012. Most important spring-summer (April-June) drought occurred in 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2012. In this years were fixed the large crop losses of winter wheat and spring barley - 10-43% from the trend.

Under the climate changing is become important the estimates of future drought risks, which is necessary for long-term economic planning. For assessment of the drought frequency in the future was used data of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) for period 2020-2050.

Analysis of spatial and temporal distribution of drought was held using the index SPI. For its calculation has been used multimodel (32 models) monthly mean precipitation data for two boundary scenarios, which represents the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways), experiment RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.

Under the scenario RCP2.6 surface air temperature anomaly in Ukraine until 2050 will be +0.7, +2.1degrees Celsius compared with a baseline period 1981-2010. According to the scenario RCP8.5 increasing of temperature can be up to +2.8, +3.1degrees Celsius. Precipitation will be slightly increased in both scenarios.

SPI was examined for three timescales 12, 7 and 3 months, in order to cover droughts of different duration.

The SPI12 analysis for local points showed that at the RCP2.6 some significant dry periods will be observed in 2020's and 2040's, but at the RCP8.5 expected increasing the intensity and duration of drought episodes after 2035. The most severe drought is projected in 2042-2045.

The SPI7 analysis during vegetation season (April-October) showed that at the RCP2.6 total number of drought will be several larger than at the RCP8.5. The frequency of weak and moderate droughts at the RCP2.6 averaged to 12-14 cases per 31 years, according to the RCP8.5 is 10-12 cases. Severe and extreme droughts under both scenarios are expected in 1 to 4 years, but not everywhere.

Analysis of drought frequency in different seasons using SPI3 showed that during 2020-2050 expected a slight increasing the total number of drought and its redistribution within the warm season. The increasing of the number summer-autumn droughts (August-October) and reducing of summer droughts (June-August) are projected, especially in mild scenario RCP2.6. The frequency of drought could reach up one per every 2-3 years across regions. Maximum number of droughts  in all seasons predicted for the northeast and western regions of Ukraine, which in the present climate are not too arid. Contrariwise in the Steppe the total number of droughts almost not changes, but remains a high probability of severe and extreme drought.

Evaluating the risk of hydrological drought to the irrigation sector under future climate scenarios: the case study of Puglia Region (Italy)

S. Torresan (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Venice, Italy), P. Ronco (Ca' Foscari University, Venice, Italy), F. Zennaro (Ca' Foscari University, Venice, Italy), A. Critto (Ca' Foscari University, Venice, Italy), M. Santini (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Viterbo, Italy), A. Trabucco (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Sassari, Italy), A. Marcomini (Ca' Foscari University, Venice, Italy)

Abstract details
Evaluating the risk of hydrological drought to the irrigation sector under future climate scenarios: the case study of Puglia Region (Italy)

S. Torresan (1) ; P. Ronco (2) ; F. Zennaro (2) ; A. Critto (2) ; M. Santini (3) ; A. Trabucco (4) ; A. Marcomini (2)
(1) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Division, Venice, Italy; (2) Ca' Foscari University, Dept. of environmental sciences, informatics and statistics, Venice, Italy; (3) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Impacts on agriculture, forests and ecosystem services, Viterbo, Italy; (4) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Impacts on agriculture, forests and ecosystem services, Sassari, Italy

Abstract content

In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, the raising drought events caused by climate change are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, also used for irrigation purposes. The achievement of a sustainable equilibrium between the availability of water resources and the irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. In this sense, the improvement (of existing) and the development of (new) appropriate risk assessment tools to evaluate the impact of drought events on irrigated crops is fundamental in order to assure that the agricultural yields are appropriate to meet the current and future food and market demand. The present study aims at assessing the risk of hydrological droughts due to climate change on the irrigated agronomic compartment that cover a large portion of Puglia, a semi-arid region with the largest agriculture production in Southern Italy. Based on the theoretical framework of Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, the methodology is applied within a scenario-based hazard framework, where future climate projections provided by COSMO-CLM are considered under the radiative forcing RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in two different timeframes (2021-2050 and 2041-2070).  The run-off feeding the water stocks of the most important reservoirs for irrigation purpose in Puglia has been modelled by means of the Arc-SWAT model. The risk methodology followed four subsequent levels of analysis (i.e. hazards, exposure, vulnerability and risk assessments) where each step has been characterized by specific algorithms for their spatial and numerical quantification. Hazard scores have been modelled as the degrees of fulfillment of Reclamation Consortia irrigation demand when compared to the volume of available water supplied by the different reservoirs. Exposure assessment consists on the spatial characterization of the most valuable irrigated areas in Puglia Region, according to the specific crops that are cultivated. Vulnerability scores have been designed as function of three different factors that accounts for the agronomic and structural pattern of irrigation schemes (i.e.  crop yield variation according to water stress; water losses along the irrigation network; diversification of water supplies other than the reservoirs‘ alone). Finally, relative risk maps (GIS based) and related statistics have been produced allowing the identification of hot spots and areas at risk as well as the spatial characterization of the risk pattern. The assessment allowed: the identification of Reclamation Consortia at higher risk of not fulfilling their irrigation demand in future perspectives (e.g. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia in RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario); to identify the most affected crops (e.g. fruit trees and vineyards); and finally, to characterize the vulnerability pattern of irrigation systems and networks. According to these results, tailored and knowledge-based adaptation strategies and related actions can be developed, to reduce the risk pattern at both agronomic level (preferring crops with low vulnerability score, as olive groves) and at structural level (differentiating the water stocks and supplies and reducing losses and inefficiencies).

 

 

Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks under Model Uncertainty Aversion

L. Berger (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy), J. Emmerling (FEEM, Milano, Italy), M. Tavoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei , Milan, Italy)

Abstract details
Managing Catastrophic Climate Risks under Model Uncertainty Aversion

L. Berger (1) ; J. Emmerling (2) ; M. Tavoni (3)
(1) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy; (2) FEEM, Milano, Italy; (3) Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei , Climate change and sustainable development programme, Milan, Italy

Abstract content

We propose a robust risk management approach to deal with the problem of catastrophic climate change which incorporates both risk and model uncertainty. Using a two-period model of optimal abatement, we show how model uncertainty and risk aversion interact. We disentangle the impact of preferences towards different types of uncertainty from the structure of model uncertainty on the optimal level of abatement, by means of a simple measure of model uncertainty. With data from expert elicitation about climate change catastrophes, we show the relative importance of these two effects and calibrate an integrated assessment model of climate change. The results indicate that the structure of model uncertainty, and specifically the convergence of agreement across models are the key driver of abatement, and that model uncertainty aversion warrants a higher level of climate change mitigation.

Mapping of risk interconnection under climate change

T. Yokohata (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), K. Nishina (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), T. Kiyoshi (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), S. Emori (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), K. Tanaka (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), M. Kiguchi (University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan), Y. Iseri (Tokyo Institute of Technology Tokyo , Tokyo, Japan), Y. Honda (University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan), M. Okada (National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences , Tsukuba, Japan), Y. Masaki (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), A. Yamamoto (University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan), M. Shigemitsu (Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan), M. Yoshimori (Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan), T. Sueyoshi (National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan), K. Iwase (Nomura Research Institute , Tokyo, Japan), N. Hanasaki (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), A. Ito (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), G. Sakurai (National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences , Tsukuba, Japan), I. Toshichika (National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences , Tsukuba, Japan), T. Oki (University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract details
Mapping of risk interconnection under climate change

T. Yokohata (1) ; K. Nishina (1) ; T. Kiyoshi (1) ; S. Emori (1) ; K. Tanaka (1) ; M. Kiguchi (2) ; Y. Iseri (3) ; Y. Honda (4) ; M. Okada (5) ; Y. Masaki (1) ; A. Yamamoto (6) ; M. Shigemitsu (7) ; M. Yoshimori (7) ; T. Sueyoshi (8) ; K. Iwase (9) ; N. Hanasaki (1) ; A. Ito (1) ; G. Sakurai (5) ; I. Toshichika (5) ; T. Oki (2)
(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; (2) University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; (3) Tokyo Institute of Technology Tokyo , Tokyo, Japan; (4) University of Tsukuba, Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan; (5) National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences , Tsukuba, Japan; (6) University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan; (7) Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; (8) National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan; (9) Nomura Research Institute , Tokyo, Japan

Abstract content

Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as “climate risks”. Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a “network diagram”. This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment – Risks, Uncertainties and Society).

First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a “network diagram” based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm).

Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by changing the food price or food supply. Changes in river runoff can also make an impact on the hydropower efficiency. Comprehensive pictures of climate risks and their interconnections are clearly shown in a straightforward manner by the network diagram. We will have a discussion how our results can be helpful for our society to recognize the climate risk

Modelling the ice dynamics of Himalayan glaciers

S. Shannon (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), T. Payne (University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom), R. Betts (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), A. Wiltshire (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Modelling the ice dynamics of Himalayan glaciers

S. Shannon (1) ; T. Payne (2) ; R. Betts (1) ; A. Wiltshire (3)
(1) University of Exeter, Geography, Exeter, United Kingdom; (2) University of Bristol, Bristol glaciology centre, Bristol, United Kingdom; (3) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract content

In the Himalayan-Karakoram glacier melt contributes to the runoff of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers affecting the livelihoods of more than 700 million people[1]. Future glacier melting is of particular concern for high-end climate change scenarios because of the potential impacts on water supply.  Projections suggest that runoff may increase until 2050, due to enhanced glacier melting combined with an increase in monsoon precipitation [2, 3]. The uncertainty in these estimates are associated with an over simplified treatment of glaciers and a poor representation of monsoon precipitation.  

To assess the impact of glacier retreat on food and water security in the region, we are implementing a 1-D glacier flow model [4] into the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) integrated impacts model.  The purpose of the JULES impacts model is to allow for an integrated, internally-consistent assessment of impacts of climate change on glaciers, water resources and agriculture. The JULES impacts model is currently under development and includes a river routing scheme [5], an irrigation scheme and crop plant functions types[6].

In this presentation, we describe the initial stages of the model development.  The glacier model requires two inputs; knowledge of the present day ice thickness and surface mass balance (SMB) as a function of elevation.  Ice thickness is calculated using an inversion technique based on the principles of ice flow dynamics [7, 8]. This technique uses satellite observations of glacier outlines [9] combined with a digital elevation model.  A time series of SMB generated by JULES is used to drive the glacier flow model offline.  We show preliminary results of glacier flow simulations in the Himalayan-Karakoram.

 

[1] Immerzeel, W. W., van Beek, L. P. H. and Bierkens, M. F. P. (2010) Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers. Science. 328(5984) 1382-1385.

[2] Immerzeel, W. W. P., F. Bierkens, M. F. P. (2013) Rising river flows throughout the twenty-first century in two Himalayan glacierized watersheds. Nature Geoscience. 3 742–745 

[3] Lutz, A. F., Immerzeel, W. W., Shrestha, A. B. and Bierkens, M. F. P. (2014) Consistent increase in High Asia's runoff due to increasing glacier melt and precipitation. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE. 4 587–592.

[4] Vieli, A. and Payne, A. J. (2005) Assessing the ability of numerical ice sheet models to simulate grounding line migration. Journal of Geophysical Research. 110(F01003).

[5] Oki, T. a. Y. C. S. (1998) Design of Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP)-a global river channel network. Earth Interactions. 2 1–37.

[6] Osborne, T. G., J. Hooker, J. Williams, K. Wiltshire, A. Betts, R. Wheeler, T. (2014) JULES-crop: a parametrisation of crops in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 7(5).

[7] Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Bauder, A., Funk, M. and Truffer, M. (2009) A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers. Journal of Glaciology. 55(191) 422-430.

[8] Huss, M. and Farinotti, D. (2012) Distributed ice thickness and volume of all glaciers around the globe. Journal of Geophysical Research. 117 F04010.

[9] 2014, Randolph Glacier Inventory – A Dataset of Global Glacier Outlines: Version 4.0. Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Media, D., Boulder Colorado, USA.

 

Estimated impacts of emissions reductions on wheat and maize crops

C. Tebaldi (NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States of America), D. Lobell (Stanford University, Stanford, United States of America)

Abstract details
Estimated impacts of emissions reductions on wheat and maize crops

C. Tebaldi (1) ; D. Lobell (2)
(1) NCAR, CGD, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (2) Stanford University, Department of environmental earth system science, Stanford, United States of America

Abstract content

An ability to quantify the impacts associated with different emissions scenarios across a broad range of economic and environmental outcomes would be helpful for guiding policy on energy and greenhouse gas emissions. One outcome of particular interest, especially for food insecure populations, are effects on agricultural productivity. In this study we use empirical models of the relation between climate and CO2 concentration on the one hand, and changes in crop yields on the other, to characterize the differential impacts on the future productivity of two major crops of two level of forcings: those associated with RCP4.5 and those associated with RCP8.5. This study is part of a larger project on the Benefits of Reducing Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE). We consider differential effects on maize and wheat yields at the global scale from expected changes in mean temperature and precipitation under the two scenarios. We also characterize differential levels of exposure to damaging heat extremes. Several time horizons are considered, characterizing expected impacts over the short, middle and long terms over the 21st century.

How does urbanization modify climate related risk in urban areas on global scale?

T. Welle, (Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, Stuttgart, Germany), J. Birkmann (Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, Stuttgart, Germany), M. Garschagen, (United Nations University,, Bonn, Germany)

Abstract details
How does urbanization modify climate related risk in urban areas on global scale?

T. Welle, (1) ; J. Birkmann (1) ; M. Garschagen, (2)
(1) Institute for Spatial and Regional Planning, University of stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany; (2) United Nations University,, Institute for Environment and Human Security, Bonn, Germany

Abstract content

Climate change and urbanization are two global megatrends that will influence risk to climate change as well as adaptation opportunities and constraints. Sea-level rise, storms and floods as well as droughts will be modified by climate change and most likely impact particularly urban areas in coastal zones in the future as the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) underscored. Since 1950 the world population has grown rapidly from 746 millions to 3.9 billion. Hence, today more than 50% of the population is living in urban areas implying new challenges for risk reduction and adaptation. Projections of urban population growth estimate that by 2050 additional 2.5 billion people will live in urban areas whereas 90 percent of this increase will take place in Africa and Asia. Against this background and also considering the discussion of sustainable develoment goals (SDGs) and the post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction there is an increasing need to assess whether future urbanization will increase risks related to climate change or in contrast whether urbanization might provide a vehicle for risk and vulnerability reduction regarding climate related hazards.   

Consequently the question of how urbanization influences core determinants of risk, particularly  vulnerability - either in a positive or negative way - has not yet been clearly answered. The paper examines the  nexus between urbanization, urban growth  and vulnerability, based on new global remote sensing based land-use data for 140 countries. In this regard, vulnerability is defined as a combination of susceptibility, coping and adaptive capacities. The findings show among other issues that a high level of urbanization (>75%)  and a low urban growth rate (<1%) at national scale in general implies a rather low level of urban vulnerability. In contrast, countries that are characterized by a low level of urbanization(<40%), but very high urban growth rates (more than 3%) often tend to be countries with a high level of vulnerability in urban areas. The paper presents in detail selected findings and methods used to assess urban vulnerability and risk patterns  in various countries, also based on the WorldRiskIndex concept. The triangulation of different data, such as remote sensing data, hazard data and global available socio-economic indicators, is presented as well as constraints and limitations of it. Exposure, vulnerability and risk maps for urban areas with a national scale resolution will underscore that risk and adaptation strategies need to consider different urbanization types in order to improve regional management approaches.

Overall, the presentation provides new insights in risk and vulnerability data and respective assessment methods for urban areas. Based on these findings specific recommendations for policy making and new risk monitoring tools will be derived that also consider priority actions defined in the fields of climate change adaptation (programme on loss and damage) and disaster risk reduction.

Dr

H. Quenol (CNRS- UMR6554 LETG, Rennes, France)

Abstract details
Dr

H. Quenol (CNRS- UMR6554 LETG, Rennes, France)

Abstract content

Climate analysis at local scale in the context of climate change

Issues related to climate change increasingly concern the functioning of local scale geo-systems. A global change will necessarily affect local climates. In this context, the potential impacts of climate change lead to numerous interrogations concerning adaptation. Despite numerous studies on the impact of projected global warming on different regions, global atmospheric models (GCM) are not adapted to local scales and, as a result, impacts at local scales are still approximate. Although real progress in regional climate modeling was realized over the past years, no operative model is in use yet to simulate climate at local scales (ten or so meters). It is therefore at a finer spatial scale, which considers land surface characteristics, it will be possible to assess the impacts of climate change. Our scientific approach aims to develop a methodology based on climatic observations in situ and on spatial modeling of climate, which permits to evaluate the spatial variability of atmospheric parameters at fine scales (mean values ​​and climatic extremes). By completing the lack of data at local scales, this work allows to improve the understanding on climate changes that may appear at local scale and thus advance the assessment of the potential impacts. This methodology is developed and applied in agro climatology (viticulture) and in urban climatology.

In viticulture, the LIFE-ADVICLIM (LIFE13 ENV/FR/001512: ADapatation of VIticulture to CLIMate change : High resolution observations of adaptation scenarii for viticulture) project aims at observing climate at local scales in different European vineyards, representing the climate diversity in European wine regions ; simulating climate and climate change in order to produce a fine scale assessment of the climate change impacts, thereafter simulating scenarii of adaptation for viticulture. Climate modeling at fine scales will include (i) the output from numerical EURO-CORDEX models with a kilometer resolution (ii) the spatial modeling of climatic data from the measurement networks using multicriteria modeling at very high resolution (90 m), and (iii) the future climate simulations using meso-scale climatic model ran under different scenarios of climate change. (i) The coarse resolution output from numerical climate models require downscaling. We use the downscaling output of EURO-CORDEX. It will provide knowledge and understanding of  climate variability at meso-scale in the different studied European wine regions. Climatic data from national weather station networks will be used to validate the outputs of modelled data. (ii) In order to construct fine-scale spatial temperature fields, the multicriteria modelling will be used. This approach takes environmental factors into account. Indeed, the role of topographic factors in the spatial variability of temperatures at fine scales, in addition to the influence of geographical location (latitude/longitude) at larger scale has already been demonstrated. This type of modeling will make use of the climatic data provided by the fine scale network. (iii) We use simulations of climate change scenarios (for Europe) carried out CORDEX program

For example, the results of the measurements and modeling adapted at terroir scales have permitted to highlight a strong spatial variability of climate at very small spaces. In terms of temperatures, the spatial differences generated by the local conditions (topography, etc.) are very often greater than the increase in temperatures simulated by the different scenarios of IPCC for the next 50 years. Vine growers adapt their practices to this spatial variability of climate that partly determines the characteristics and uniqueness of their wine. In the context of climate change, this approach of a spatial analysis could be a method to adapt to the temporal changes in climate, especially in the short and medium term.

In urban climatogy, the same scientific approach (measurement and modeling at fine scales) has been applied. The same methodology was applied in Rennes city. The results showed a strong spatial variability of the temperatures in relation to local characteristics of the city (eg green areas, densely built-up urban area...). In the context of global change, climate analysis at fine scales helps to define the development policies.

Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report: Lessons learned for informing management of climate-related risks

M. Mastrandrea (Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII TSU, Stanford, CA, United States of America), K. Mach (Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII TSU, Stanford, CA, United States of America), V. Barros, (Universidad de Buenos Aires / IPCC WGII, Buenas Aires, Argentina), C. Field (Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII, Stanford, CA, United States of America)

Abstract details
Treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report: Lessons learned for informing management of climate-related risks

M. Mastrandrea (1) ; K. Mach (1) ; V. Barros, (2) ; C. Field (3)
(1) Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII TSU, Stanford, CA, United States of America; (2) Universidad de Buenos Aires / IPCC WGII, Buenas Aires, Argentina; (3) Carnegie Institution for Science / IPCC WGII, Stanford, CA, United States of America

Abstract content

This presentation will discuss lessons learned through implementation of a common approach for characterizing the degree of certainty in findings of the assessment process in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5), with a focus on informing climate risk management in future assessments.  Managing climate-related risks involves decision making in a changing world, with continuing uncertainty about how climatic and non-climatic factors will evolve and interact over time.  Risks result from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of society, and vary substantially across plausible alternative development pathways.  In the IPCC AR5, assessment of risks relied on diverse forms of evidence, including empirical observations, experimental results, process-based understanding, statistical approaches, and simulation and descriptive models.  Expert judgment is critical in integrating such diverse evidence into evaluations of risks and in determining the extent to which risks can be quantified.  The common approach used in the IPCC AR5 emphasizes assessment of the consequences and relative likelihoods of the widest possible range of future outcomes, including low-probability outcomes with large consequences, to inform risk management.  It also emphasizes providing clear traceable accounts of the confidence in and support for assessment findings, describing an author team’s evaluation of the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence and the degree of agreement underlying each finding.  Clear traceable accounts ensure users of the assessment can understand the evaluation and integration of evidence supporting assessment findings.  Further use of structured methods for organizing and quantifying expert judgment could aid future assessment efforts within and beyond the IPCC in delivering policy-relevant findings with clear traceable accounts and in quantifying climate risks based on a diverse evidence base mixing quantitative and qualitative information.  

Climate change and very dangerous heat waves: Projecting frequency of high-mortality heat waves in 82 US communities in 2061—2080 under different climate, population, and adaptation scenarios

B. Anderson (Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America), K. Oleson, (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America), B. Jones, (CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, NY, United States of America), R. Peng, (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, United States of America)

Abstract details
Climate change and very dangerous heat waves: Projecting frequency of high-mortality heat waves in 82 US communities in 2061—2080 under different climate, population, and adaptation scenarios

B. Anderson (1) ; K. Oleson, (2) ; B. Jones, (3) ; R. Peng, (4)
(1) Colorado State University, Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences, Fort Collins, CO, United States of America; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (3) CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, NY, United States of America; (4) Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Biostatistics, Baltimore, MD, United States of America

Abstract content

Certain rare heat waves, like the 2003 heat wave in France, can have devastating effects on a community’s public health and well-being. Here, we built models to predict which heat waves are likely to be such “very dangerous” heat waves, based on characteristics of the heat wave (e.g., intensity, length) and of the community in which it occurred (e.g., population), using recent (1987—2005) data from 82 large US urban communities. We built twenty potential classification models and used Monte Carlo cross-validations to evaluate these models, identifying three models capable of predicting the occurrence of very dangerous heat waves. Using these three models, we predicted the frequency of very dangerous heat waves in these 82 communities in 2061—2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace). We found that the frequency of very dangerous heat waves was most strongly influenced by the pace at which communities are able to adapt to their changing climates. We found that the frequency also depended somewhat on climate change scenario, while it was practically unchanged across different population scenarios, although these scenarios did influence projected person-days of exposure to very dangerous heat waves. Our results suggest that it is critical to consider adaptation scenarios when projecting health impacts of heat under climate change scenarios. Further, our findings suggest that community-level adaptation measures are likely to be a critical protection against future very dangerous heat waves.

Current structural changes in global economic network amplify heat stress-induced production losses

L. Wenz (Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), A. Levermann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, France)

Abstract details
Current structural changes in global economic network amplify heat stress-induced production losses

L. Wenz (1) ; A. Levermann (2)
(1) Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, France

Abstract content

Above a certain temperature threshold labor productivity has been shown to decline in exposed sectors such as construction and agriculture. Under future warming daily temperature will increase and thereby affect economic output. Here, we assess primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic conditions under unabated climate change. Unsurprisingly, we find that relative damages increase linearly with rising temperatures.

Crucial for future adaptation strategies we observe that the structure of the global economic network plays an important role in absolute damage level. A new static network measure is found to represent the network’s vulnerability to propagation of unanticipated damages well. This Global Adaptive Pressure (GAP) is shown to increase with the network’s sensitivity to heat stress-induced damages.

From data of the global economic network we learn that the Global Adaptive Pressure has been steadily increasing since 1998 (with an exception for the post-financial crisis years 2009 and 2010). As GAP is a relative measure, this increase does not merely represent economic growth but a structural change.

Our finding suggests that the current evolution of the global economic network may amplify heat stress-induced damages and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than currently prevalent. 

The relative role of anthropogenic climate change on risk of heat mortality in the European heatwave of 2003

D. Mitchell (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), C. Huntingford (CEH, Wallingford, United Kingdom), C. Heaviside, (Public Health England, Oxford, United Kingdom), S. Vardoulakis, (Public Health England, Oxford, United Kingdom), P. Frumhoff (Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, United States of America), F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The relative role of anthropogenic climate change on risk of heat mortality in the European heatwave of 2003

D. Mitchell (1) ; C. Huntingford (2) ; C. Heaviside, (3) ; S. Vardoulakis, (3) ; P. Frumhoff (4) ; F. Otto (1) ; M. Allen (5)
(1) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) CEH, Wallingford, United Kingdom; (3) Public Health England, Oxford, United Kingdom; (4) Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA, United States of America; (5) University of Oxford, School of Geography and Environment and Dept of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The 2003 European heat wave was one of the most extreme meteorological events in terms of loss of life in Europe in recent times. Estimates of excess heat-related deaths for this event could be as high as 70,000, with France being particularly affected.

 

The chaotic nature of the climate system is such that extreme meteorological events of this magnitude will to some extent always occur “by chance”. However external factors may increase or decrease the frequency of occurrence.  Such factors include climate change related to anthropogenic influences, such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use change, but also natural influences such as changes in solar output, and large volcanic eruptions.

 

Here we use a unique modelling capability to perform massive ensembles of climate model simulations (“climateprediction-dot-net: CPDN”), which enables assessment of any changing probabilities of particular meteorological extremes of interest. We compare scenarios representing the year 2003 (i) as it actually was (i.e. where both natural and anthropogenic conditions are used to drive the climate model; “scenario 1”), and (ii) as it could have been, if humans had not altered atmospheric gas composition (i.e. with only natural conditions; “scenario 2”).

 

This study considers each aspect of the 2003 heat wave, from the inherent warmer atmosphere due to raised greenhouse gas concentrations, and to any additional confounding and related changes in probability of altered large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. We use baseline health and demographic data to estimate associated mortality impacts on the local populations. An additional feature of CPDN is that each global simulation contains a high-resolution “nested” regional climate model centred on Europe. This high-resolution modelling capability allows us to perform much of the analysis at the city level. For Scenario’s 1 and 2, we therefore show how heat-related mortality changed over Paris during 2003.

Heat stress in a warming world: implications for human health and productivity under different climate scenarios

C. Mcalpine (University fo Queensland, Brisbane, Australia), J. Syktus (University fo Queensland, Brisbane, France)

Abstract details
Heat stress in a warming world: implications for human health and productivity under different climate scenarios

C. Mcalpine (1) ; J. Syktus (2)
(1) University fo Queensland, School of geography, planninga nd environmental management, Brisbane, Australia; (2) University fo Queensland, School of Geography, Planninga and Environmental Management, Brisbane, France

Abstract content

Projected changes in temperature and humidity over the course of the 21st Century will contribute to increased heat stress in many tropical and sub-tropical regions. Heat stress, arising from a combination of high temperature and humidity impacts on human health and wellbeing by causing illness and death, with the young and old the most vulnerable. Increased heat stress impacts workforce productivity, especially those engage in manual labour in open environments such as construction, mining and agriculture.  These impacts will be of increasing concern during coming decades due to projected significant increases in the rate of warming and rapidly growing populations tropical and sub-tropical regions.  We evaluated the impact of different emission scenarios on the heat stress conditions for the 21st Century in tropical and sub-tropical regions using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress index. Projected changes in WBGT were used to assess the future impacts of heat stress by combining time-varying changes in heat stress and human population numbers.  We found that people living in cities in coastal tropical regions and cities are highly vulnerable to changes in the number of heat stressdays, with these increasing in some instances from close to zero to two hundred days per year by 2100.  West Africa, the Caribbean and the Indian sub-continent will be particularly hard hit. We show the benefits of mitigation by comparing the distribution of heat stress under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6.

The impact of high-end climate change scenarios over Europe

I. Tsanis (Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece), L. Alfieri (European Commission – DG JRC, Ispra, Italy), A. Koutroulis (Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece), M. Grillakis (Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece), L. Papadimitriou (Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece), L. Feyen, (European Commission – DG JRC, Ispra, Italy), M. Vousdoukas (European Commission – DG JRC, Ispra, Italy), E. Voukouvalas (European Commission – DG JRC, Ispra, Italy), M. Rozsai (European Commission - DG JRC, Seville, Spain), A. Kitous, (European Commission - DG JRC, Seville, Spain), P. Ciais (LSCE, CEA, CNRS and UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), X. Wang (LSCE, CEA, CNRS and UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), K. Wyser (Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden)

Abstract details
The impact of high-end climate change scenarios over Europe

I. Tsanis (1) ; L. Alfieri (2) ; A. Koutroulis (1) ; M. Grillakis (1) ; L. Papadimitriou (1) ; L. Feyen, (2) ; M. Vousdoukas (2) ; E. Voukouvalas (2) ; M. Rozsai (3) ; A. Kitous, (3) ; P. Ciais (4) ; X. Wang (4) ; K. Wyser (5)
(1) Technical University of Crete, School of environmental engineering, Chania, Greece; (2) European Commission – DG JRC, Institute for environment and sustainability, Ispra, Italy; (3) European Commission - DG JRC, Institute for prospective technological studies, Seville, Spain; (4) LSCE, CEA, CNRS and UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (5) Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Rossby centre, Norrköping, Sweden

Abstract content

The latest scientific evidence suggest that the increase in global mean temperature is likely to exceed the 2ºC and target the 4ºC to 6ºC by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, most of Europe is expected to warm more than the average global warming in the 21st century. The potential environmental, economic and social impacts of such high-end warming scenarios has drawn the attention of the scientific community, which has a crucial role in advising future policy making. In the framework of High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes (HELIX) FP7 project, five biophysical impact models are set up to investigate the effect of high global warming levels over Europe. Impact models are focused on water management (JULES), floods, water resources and droughts (Lisflood), coastal hazard (Liscoast), Energy (Poles) and crop (Orchidee). Models are tested and validated against large scale past extreme events such as major droughts and flood events that have occurred in the recent past. Calibrated models are then forced by the newly available Euro – CORDEX regional climate projections to evaluate changes in key indicators within the considered sectors over Europe. Output simulations are then used to examine possible implications of uncertainties in global patterns of climate change at 4ºC for impacts at regional scales. Results are assessed and compared to the available CMIP5 based projections included in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) over Europe. Here, first results of the coordinated modeling effort are presented for the examined sectors.

Climate Change Induced Excessive Heat Exposure Undermines Global Health Equity and Economic Development

M. Otto (Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand), B. Lemke, (Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand), T. Kjellstrom, (Ruby Coast Research Centre, Mapua, New Zealand), C. Freyberg, (Ruby Coast Research Centre, Mapua, New Zealand), D. Briggs, (Ruby Coast Research Centre, Mapua, New Zealand), O. Hyatt, (Ruby Coast Research Centre, Mapua, New Zealand)

Abstract details
Climate Change Induced Excessive Heat Exposure Undermines Global Health Equity and Economic Development

M. Otto (1) ; B. Lemke, (2) ; T. Kjellstrom, (3) ; C. Freyberg, (3) ; D. Briggs, (3) ; O. Hyatt, (3)
(1) Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Digital Technology, Nelson, New Zealand; (2) Nelson Marlborough Institute of Technology, Nelson, New Zealand; (3) Ruby Coast Research Centre, Mapua, New Zealand

Abstract content

The physiological limits of the human body in coping with high heat exposure and heat stress are relatively well established since several decades. However, the implications of climate change trends of extreme heat have only recently been analyzed. The health effects include heat exhaustion (which reduces work capacity and labor productivity), clinical heat stroke, exacerbation of certain chronic diseases and acute fatalities. Physical work adds in a major way to the heat stress because of the internal heat production from muscle work.

 

Our analysis compares the population based estimates of health impacts of heat for selected climate models applied to RCP8.5 (the current emission track) and RCP6.0 (what may be achieved with more stringent climate mitigation policies). The global mean temperature increase this century for RCP8.5 using various models generally ranges between 3 and 5 oC, while the RCP6.0 increase generally ranges between 1.5 and 2.5 oC.

 

Whichever health outcome is analysed poor people are always at highest risk as they are likely to be in heavy physical work and they cannot afford air conditioning to the same extent as higher income people. Poor people in low and middle income tropical countries are at particular risk as most of these countries already experience several months of extreme heat each year.  The heat exposure levels expressed as "millions of person hours of exposure above agreed heat risk limits" are particularly high in these countries from a global health perspective. For example, working people in SE China without air conditioning at the prevailing ambient heat levels, will lose as much as 30% of the daylight work hours in the hottest month and the annual loss will be 8% as these hours are too hot for moderate level continuous work. In SE USA the equivalent losses are 5% in the hottest month and 2% annually. (more examples will be added in the final presentation)

 

The increasing heat impacts on clinical health and labor productivity are a growing threat to improvements in health equity at global, national and local level, as the people most vulnerable to heat stress are those with poor living and working environments and many of them already have a poor health status. The labor productivity loss also undermines local economic development and slow down any progress in poverty reduction programs.

Early Entrants of Rainfall Index Insurance: Insights from Rural Households in Central West Nigeria

D. Awolala (Centre for Research and Development, Bonn, Germany), A. Mbaye (Centre for Research and Development, Bonn, Germany), J. Von Vraun (ZEF, Bonn, Germany), W. Fonta (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), S. Sanfo (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)

Abstract details
Early Entrants of Rainfall Index Insurance: Insights from Rural Households in Central West Nigeria

D. Awolala (1) ; A. Mbaye (2) ; J. Von Vraun (3) ; W. Fonta (4) ; S. Sanfo (4)
(1) Centre for Research and Development, Bonn, Germany; (2) Centre for Research and Development, West african science service centre on climate change and adapted land use (wascal), Bonn, Germany; (3) ZEF, Research, Bonn, Germany; (4) West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Competence center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Abstract content

Farmers have traditionally adapted to weather-induced production risks over time. The failures of subsidized crop insurance schemes and rising trends of climate extremes have increases their vulnerability to higher risks. With ideal levels of adaptation, some residual impacts from weather shocks would still lead to economic losses. Rainfall index insurance can transfer farmers’ risks and increase supports for agricultural lending. This study used cross-sectional data to analyze potential demand for rainfall index insurance as financial adaptation to extreme local climate in central west Nigeria. The study shows that monthly distribution of rainfall uncertainties thereby constraining optimal planning within the available production period. Farmers’ vulnerability to rainfall delay, early cessation, and occasioned long dry spell has consequences on resource use productivity. There is demand for rainfall index insurance as nearly 65% demonstrated willingness to insure in the programme. Over 70% are risk-averse but are positively disposed towards insurance. There is a very low confidence in insurance and finance service providers as means of financial adaptation towards resilience. Farmers’ education, farming as major livelihood, production risk index, and start bid are significant on households’ decisions to insure in rainfall index insurance but households’ size, distance to weather station, awareness of agricultural insurance, previous drought experience have inverse coefficient. The more farmers’ education, dependence on farm income, production risk index and start bid increases; the higher the probability to belong to both somehow willing and definitely willing category to be insured. Farmers who have access to seasonal forecast are somehow WTP an amount that is 31.7% lower than farmers who do not on average and ceteris paribus. For every unit increase in production risk aversion, there is an increase of 43.7% in the farmers amount WTP on average and ceterius paribus since they are willing to secure their residual risk through market based indemnity transfers. Those already aware of agricultural insurance practices are also somehow WTP 37.6% higher than their fellows with no prior knowledge on average and ceteris paribus to secure their ‘residual’ risk. Mean (N352.91and median WTP (N250) obtained from the interval regression are higher for the definitely willing category than the somehow willing. In overall, farmers in somehow willing category are more elastic to price while those in definitely willing category are more inelastic to prices of microinsurance policy. For every unit increase in production risk aversion, there is an increase of 43.7% in the farmers amount WTP on average and ceteris paribus since they are willing to secure their residual risk through market based indemnity transfers. Farmers already aware of agricultural insurance practices are also somehow WTP 37.6% higher than their fellows with no prior knowledge on average and ceteris paribus to secure their ‘residual’ risk. Mean (N352.91and median WTP (N250) obtained from the interval regression are higher for the definitely willing category than the somehow willing. In overall, farmers in somehow willing category are more elastic to price while those in definitely willing category are more inelastic to prices of microinsurance policy.

Sensitivity of Natural Micro-Regions of North-East Hungary to Landscape Degradation

J. Mika (Eszterhazy Karoly University College, Eger, Hungary), A. Kertesz (Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract details
Sensitivity of Natural Micro-Regions of North-East Hungary to Landscape Degradation

J. Mika (1) ; A. Kertesz (2)
(1) Eszterhazy Karoly University College, Envirinmnetal Sciences and Landscape Ecology, Eger, Hungary; (2) Research Centre for Astronomy and Earth Sciences Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest, Hungary

Abstract content

The objective of our research is to survey degradation processes acting in each micro-region, as well, as to investigate the sensitivity of the micro-regions to degradation. A survey of land degradation processes has been carried out at medium scale (1:50 000) to identify the affected areas of the region. The methods include field work, analysis of topographic maps and remote sensing materials, statistical analyses, GIS methods and preparation of photo documents. The sensitivity of landscapes will change in the future because of global climate change. As a consequence of this, the extent and the intensity of degradation processes may change, too. Regional climate scenaria, based on GCM, RCM and empirical downscaling are all included and synthesized for the specified hilly region of ca. 20,000 sq. km. The scenaria, scoping at 50 years ahead with possible linear interpolation and extrapolation in time, include changes of seasonal means and expected changes in some extreme event, as well. The following land degradation processes are included in the database of the present and expected future states: (i.) Land (soil) degradation involving also mass movements (sheet erosion, gully erosion, wind erosion, mass movements, salinization, degradation due to soil structure changes, soil sealing). (ii.) Removal of vegetation due to deforestation and to the extension of urban, industrial areas, transport tracks, etc. (iii.) Degradation of waters. (iv.) Degradation of the scenic value of the landscape. (v.) Degradation due to land use change (other changes than those under (ii.)). (vi.) Wounds in the landscape (abandoned mines, open-cast mines, etc.). (vii.) Desertification. The sensitivity of the natural micro-regions to degradation are determined by applying sensitivity indices. Different factors are the driving forces of the various degradation processes and so different indices are created for each process with specific weighting of the identified factors, mostly based on empirical regression analyses. The concept of the index is based on the MEDALUS index (Kosmas et al. 1999). The factors included in the investigation are: (a) Soil properties (soil structure, soil water budget, organic matter content, salinity, soil parent material). (b) Climate properties (drought index, yearly precipitation, rainfall intensity). (c) Vegetation properties (forest fire risk, sensitivity of vegetation to drought, vegetation cover %). (d) Surface and subsurface water properties (ground water depth, flood risk, inundation risk). (e) Anthropogenic load (water use, waste disposal, population change, land use intensity). Finally the sensitivity index values are shown in maps. The sensitivity of natural micro-regions of North-East Hungary is also investigated under the circumstances of the expected climate change scenaria, applied to characterise landscape sensitivity in the future. The map of the existing land degradation processes, sensitivity maps of the present and simulated future climatic conditions are analysed by GIS methods. The map series and the evaluation provide important information about the state and sensitivity of the natural micro-regions and this information is useful for policymakers at different levels. The study has been supported by the OTKA-K108755 national project.

Methane distributions and sea-to-air fluxes in the South China Sea and the West Philippines Sea

H.-C. Tseng (University of Cadiz, Cadiz, Spain), C.-T.A. Chen, (National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan), A. V. Borges, (University of Liege, Liege, Belgium), T. A. Delvalls, (University of Cadiz, Cadiz, Spain)

Abstract details
Methane distributions and sea-to-air fluxes in the South China Sea and the West Philippines Sea

HC. Tseng (1) ; CTA. Chen, (2) ; AV. Borges, (3) ; TA. Delvalls, (1)
(1) University of Cadiz, Physical Chemistry Department, Cadiz, Spain; (2) National Sun Yat-sen University, Department of oceanography, Kaohsiung, Taiwan Province (People's Republic of China); (3) University of Liege, Unité d’océanographie chimique, Liege, Belgium

Abstract content

We collected 700 water samples in the South China Sea (SCS) and 300 water samples in the West Philippines Sea (WPS), during 8 cruises from August 2003 to July 2007 in order to determine methane (CH4) distributions from surface to depths of 4250 m.   The surface CH4 concentrations were above atmospheric equilibrium, both in the SCS and the WPS, with an average concentration of 4.5±3.6 and 3.0±1.2 nM, respectively.  The sea-to-air fluxes were computed, showing that the SCS emits CH4 at a rate of 8.6 µmol m-2 d-1 and the WPS at a rate of 4.9 µmol m-2 d-1.  In the SCS, the CH4 emissions were higher over the continental shelf (11.0 µmol m-2 d-1) than over the deep ocean (6.1 µmol m-2 d-1), owing to higher productivity and closer coupling with the sediments in the continental shelf. The SCS emited 30.1*10^6 mol d-1 CH4 to the atmosphere and exported 1.88*10^6 mol d-1 CH4 to the WPS during the wet season.    

        Both the concentrations of CH4 and chlorophyll a were higher in the 200m surface layer of the WPS, however, not correlated unlike recent reports suggesting the occurrence of CH4 production in surface oxic waters directly related to phytoplankton activity.  CH4 concentrations generally decrease with depth below the euphotic zone but remain constant below 1,000 m, both in the SCS and the WPS.  Some high CH4 values were observed at mid-depths in the SCS, and were most likely attributed to the anoxic generation of CH4 or the release of CH4 from sediments, gas hydrates or gas seepage.   

Past and future seasonal changes in Sea Surface Temperature in the Western English Channel as derived from satellite data and CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

B. L'hévéder (CNRS, Paris, France), S. Speich (Ecolne normale superieure, paris, France), F. Gohin (Ifremer, Brest, France)

Abstract details
Past and future seasonal changes in Sea Surface Temperature in the Western English Channel as derived from satellite data and CMIP5 multimodel ensemble

B. L'hévéder (1) ; S. Speich (2) ; F. Gohin (3)
(1) CNRS, LMD, Paris, France; (2) Ecolne normale superieure, Departement de geosciences, paris, France; (3) Ifremer, Dyneco/pelagos, Brest, France

Abstract content

Seasonal changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Western English Channel are estimated for the last decades from high-resolution satellite data, obtained by concatenating Ifremer AVHRRSST, OSTIA and ODYSSEA data over 1986-2013. Coastal seas, well separated from offshore waters by intense frontal structures, present colder SST by about 1°C in the English Channel to 2°C in the Iroise Sea in summer. A significant warming trend, concentrated in the autumn season, is highlighted. It is stronger offshore, with a SST annual mean increase of 0.32°C/decade, while it amounts to 0.23°C/decade in coastal waters, where a strong vertical mixing induced by tides and wind acts to reduce surface warming.

The performance of an ensemble of global climate models, participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in simulating recent seasonal changes of SST in the region is estimated. The median of CMIP5 models reproduces very well the observed SST mean seasonal cycle in offshore seas, but it less proficient in coastal waters due to model coarse resolution and absence of tidal forcing and related processes. In the Iroise Sea, the trend of the annual mean SST is relatively well simulated, albeit somewhat underestimated (0.20°/decade) and evenly distributed throughout the year.

The regional values of the annual mean SST as generated by the CMIP5 future scenarios simulations, range from 0.5°C (RCP2.6) to 2.5°C (RCP8.5) by year 2100, with a seasonal modulation leading to a more intense warming in summer than in winter. This increase in SST may strongly affect marine biomes, in particular phytoplancton and algae population density and phenology in the Western English Channel.

Interannual variability of upper ocean stratification in Bay of Bengal: observational and modeling aspects

F. T S (INDIAN INSTITUE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY, PUNE MAHARASHTRA, India), P. Anant (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, pune, India), C. Gnanaseelan, (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, pune, India)

Abstract details
Interannual variability of upper ocean stratification in Bay of Bengal: observational and modeling aspects

F. T S (1) ; P. Anant (2) ; C. Gnanaseelan, (2)
(1) INDIAN INSTITUE OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY, T D DIVISION, PUNE MAHARASHTRA, India; (2) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, T. s division, pune, India

Abstract content

The annual cycle and interannual variability of stratification in Bay of Bengal (BoB) are studied using both observations and Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) analysis during 2003-2012. Annual cycle of stratification and SST evolves coherently (correlation coefficient is 0.85) highlighting its role on modulating air-sea interaction over this climatologically important region. Spatial distribution of stratification shows strong seasonality in ARGO observations, whereas it is highly underestimated in GODAS with highest discrepancies during fall and spring. The annual cycle of SSS in GODAS is out of phase with observations implying possible potential feedbacks. During La Niña years, SSS drop in fall and winter and are lesser than those reported during El Niño years. All these features are misrepresented in GODAS. As stratification modulates air-sea interaction over BoB especially during El Niño and La Niña years, such misrepresentation of ocean stratification may lead to improper thermocline-SST coupling in the models. The mean stratification and its interannual variability in GODAS are weaker than observed even though interannual variability in fresh water flux (P-E) is higher in GODAS. Detailed analysis of GODAS with in-situ observations reveals that upper ocean current shear (vertical) is overestimated in GODAS leading to unrealistically strong mixing which is primarily responsible for the deeper penetration of surface warm and freshwater resulting weaker stratification. As GODAS is used to initialize the ocean model of the Coupled Forecasting System for seasonal prediction of Asian monsoon, proper representation of stratification is essential. This study advocates the need of accurate representation of mixing in GODAS for improved summer monsoon forecast.

Recent changes and trends of the upwelling intensity in the Canary Current Upwelling System

A. Benazzouz (Institut National de Recherche Halieutique, Casablanca, Morocco), K. Hilmi (Institut National de Recherche Halieutique, Casablanca, Morocco)

Abstract details
Recent changes and trends of the upwelling intensity in the Canary Current Upwelling System

A. Benazzouz (1) ; K. Hilmi (2)
(1) Institut National de Recherche Halieutique, Département océangraphie, Casablanca, Morocco; (2) Institut National de Recherche Halieutique, Département océanographie, Casablanca, Morocco

Abstract content

A summary of current knowledge for the quantification of the upwelling intensity from wind and SST is provided on the Canary Current Upwelling System (8°N-43°N) from 1982 to 2011.  Statistical analysis of trends and seasonal changes of the upwelling activity are carried out in this work. Linear trends in upwelling intensity are estimated from both atmospheric forcing (wind stress) and thermal oceanic response (SST), both derived from satellite data, with a particular focus on the Cap Ghir of the moroccan area (30.5 °N).The results indicate different spatial trends in the upwelling favorable winds and an apparent increasing coastal warming associated with intensification of winds at the regional scale off Northwest Africa is found.

Comparing coastal and open ocean sea level variability and trend from altimetric data

A. Melet (CNES/LEGOS, Toulouse, France), F. Birol, (LEGOS, Toulouse, France), B. Meyssignac (LEGOS, Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
Comparing coastal and open ocean sea level variability and trend from altimetric data

A. Melet (1) ; F. Birol, (2) ; B. Meyssignac (2)
(1) CNES/LEGOS, Toulouse, France; (2) LEGOS, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

Since 1993, altimetry has provided an unprecedented opportunity to study sea level variability with a quasi-global coverage. Satellite altimetry indicates that sea level has been rising fast in response to global warming, but with large regional variations. However, standard altimetric data do not allow to study sea level variability and rise close to the coast, where the socio-economic impacts of sea level rise are the greatest. Recently, along-track altimetric data have been reprocessed at LEGOS/CTOH using algorithms adapted to coastal regions to recover information in coastal zones (this reprocessed coastal product is referred to as the XTRACK dataset here). 

In this study, we first intercalibrate the along-track Topex-Poséidon, Jason-1 and Jason-2 XTRACK dataset to that distributed by AVISO to have consistent sea level data in the open ocean. Then, sea level trends are computed with the XTRACK dataset to analyse how sea level rise varies as a function of the distance to the coast. Spectral analyses are performed to assess the frequency bands for which coastal sea level variability and open ocean variability differ. 

Analyses are performed over two regions (West coast of Africa and southwest Pacific). They will be extended to the global ocean to provide a map of sea level trends over the 1993-2012 period for the coastal zones of the global ocean.

Ocean regulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide : timing of atmosphere-ocean reorganization, and CO2 outgassing during last deglaciation

E. Michel (CEA_CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France), G. Siani, (GEOPS, Orsay, France), A. Mazaud (CEA_CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France), D. P. N. Van (Quaternary Sciences, Lund, Sweden), M. Paterne (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), Gif-sur-Yvette, France), N. Haddam, (CEA_CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France), S. Jaccard, (Institute of Geological Sciences & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland), G. Isguder, (CEA_CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France), F. Dewilde, (CEA_CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France), T. Devries, (Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, United States of America), C. Verbruggen, (Department of Geology and Soil Sciences, Gent , Belgium), S. Björck, (Quaternary Sciences, Lund, Sweden), C. Waelbroeck (LSCE/IPSL - CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), R. Depol-Holz, (Department of Oceanography, Concepcion , Chile), C. Kissel, (CEA_CNRS-UVSQ, Gif sur Yvette, France)

Abstract details
Ocean regulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide : timing of atmosphere-ocean reorganization, and CO2 outgassing during last deglaciation

E. Michel (1) ; G. Siani, (2) ; A. Mazaud (1) ; DPN. Van (3) ; M. Paterne (4) ; N. Haddam, (1) ; S. Jaccard, (5) ; G. Isguder, (1) ; F. Dewilde, (1) ; T. Devries, (6) ; C. Verbruggen, (7) ; S. Björck, (3) ; C. Waelbroeck (8) ; R. Depol-Holz, (9) ; C. Kissel, (1)
(1) CEA_CNRS-UVSQ, Lsce-ipsl, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) GEOPS, Université orsay paris-sud xi, Orsay, France; (3) Quaternary Sciences, Department of geology, Lund, Sweden; (4) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), Cea-cnrs-uvsq, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (5) Institute of Geological Sciences & Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of bern, Bern, Switzerland; (6) Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of califormia, Los Angeles, United States of America; (7) Department of Geology and Soil Sciences, Ghent university, Gent , Belgium; (8) LSCE/IPSL - CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (9) Department of Oceanography, Universidad de concepcion, Concepcion , Chile

Abstract content

 During the last deglaciation, centennial to millennial scale large climate changes occurred with a climate decoupling between the North and South poles called the bipolar seesaw. These events, expression of the complex interaction between the ocean, the atmosphere and the cryosphere, are not well understood yet. Associated with these events, CO2 outgassing from the ocean to the atmosphere occurred. These increases in atmospheric CO2, preceding the Earth’s global temperature increase, have been an important factor of the deglaciation. The Southern Ocean plays a key role in the global climate. Intermediate and bottom waters formation occurs within the Southern Ocean and it is the region where the deeper ocean and the atmosphere are connected due to low density gradient and wind driven upwelling. We present the climatic behavior of the different Southern Ocean sectors during these climatic events, with a precise time scale. Thanks to the complementary archives and skills of Lund University and IPSL researchers, we combine the terrestrial records from the few islands present, in this mainly oceanic hemisphere, with oceanic high resolution records, using volcanic tephra to obtain a robust chronology for the marine records chronology and inconsequence a common 14C age scale. This multi-proxies approach allows reconstructing robust quantitative records of temperature and wind intensity evolution. Sediment core records from the South-East Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean indicate that both temperature increase and intensification of the Southern Ocean upwelling in this area are coeval in this area as well as, within dating uncertainty of the records, with the temperature increase over the Antarctic and atmospheric CO2 increase. In the Indian sector, a terrestrial record indicates a possible delay between the break in the increase of Antarctic temperature (Antarctic cold reversal within the deglaciation) and westerly wind belt shift. In the meanwhile, ocean records indicate that the sea surface temperature increase and the intensification of the Southern Ocean upwelling preceded the decrease or shift of the Antarctic circumpolar current. Such well-dated high resolution records will allow studying leads and lags between the climatic records of different North and South latitudes and thus establish the link between Southern Ocean and North Atlantic circulation changes. The space and time mapping of climatic changes will be compared to climate model experiments to disentangle the role of the different atmospheric and oceanic climate mechanisms of the bipolar seesaw. It is a necessary step to improve climate models that indicate a different response to fresh water discharge experiments designed to reproduce these rapid climatic events with a bipolar seesaw signature. Indeed the different models, used for future climate simulations, indicate different responses in the different sectors (Atlantic, Indian and Pacific) of the Southern Ocean for these experiments.

Long term marine time-series expose underlying climate-driven changes in South America during the last 40 years

A. Arias (Argentine Institute of Oceanography (IADO), CONICET, Bahía Blanca, Argentina), E. Alberdi, (Argentine Institute of Oceanography (IADO), CONICET, Bahia Blanca, Argentina), R. Freije, (Universidad Nacional del Sur, Bahia Blanca, Argentina), J. Marcovecchio, (Argentine Institute of Oceanography (IADO), CONICET, Bahía Blanca, Argentina)

Abstract details
Long term marine time-series expose underlying climate-driven changes in South America during the last 40 years

A. Arias (1) ; E. Alberdi, (2) ; R. Freije, (3) ; J. Marcovecchio, (1)
(1) Argentine Institute of Oceanography (IADO), CONICET, Bahía Blanca, Argentina; (2) Argentine Institute of Oceanography (IADO), CONICET, Bahia Blanca, Argentina; (3) Universidad Nacional del Sur, Chemistry, Bahia Blanca, Argentina

Abstract content

Long term marine time-series expose underlying climate-driven changes in South America during the last 40 years

Andrés H. Arias1, Ernesto Alberdi, Rubén H. Freije2 and Jorge E. Marcovecchio1

 

1Argentinean Institute of Oceanography, Florida 8000 (Camino La Carrindanga km 7,5) Complejo CRIBABB.E1 Building, Bahia Blanca, Buenos Aires, 8000, Argentina.  E-mail:  aharias@iado-conicet.gov.ar

2National South University, Av.Alem 1253, Bahia Blanca, Buenos Aires, 8000, Argentina

 

Climate Change is creating a dynamic of continuous changes in ecosystems. Generally, the expected consequences of these changes are global; however, the occurrence of extreme events and specific environmental problems are usually local or regional phenomenon. One of the keys to uncover climate-driven changes are the long term time-series of observations. While there are a number of long-term biological time-series on land, there are relatively few in marine environments. This is highlighted by the fact that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) noted 28586 significant biological changes in terrestrial systems, but only 85 from marine and freshwater systems. The present research deals with this gap in the state of the art, focusing in an area which holds scarce to null long-term research on ocean observation and climate driven changes: the South Atlantic Ocean. From the results of the analysis of up to 40 years of oceanographic physicochemical variables measured at the Bahia Blanca Estuary (Dissolved Oxygen, pH, Chlorophyll, Phaeopigments, Temperature, Salinity, NH4, Particulate Organic Matter, NO2, NO3, Phosphorous, etc.) unknown underlying trends were uncovered. In order to test the variables trend throughout several time-scales, the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was used to divide the continuous-time function into wavelets. Moreover, the use of Cross Wavelet Correlation (CWC) allowed to light the relationship between the variables throughout different time-scales. After that, a correlation analysis which linked the ocean observations to biological documented changes was assessed. As result, novel hypotheses were raised in the field of phytoplankton and zooplankton assemblages climate-driven control,  crustaceans catches and fisheries recruitment. For instance:

  • “climate-driven variations in ocean Temperature, pH, DO and Salinity can restrict the growth of the phytoplankton assemblages, leading to other factors (i.e., grazing) the size control of the cells”
  • “low interannual variability of water temperature and water salinity favours higher fishing yields and vice versa"

Undoubtedly, these findings will strengthen the theory which propose climate-driven changes at marine coastal ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change and will be of high relevance for the international dialogue on “anthropogenic vs. climate-induced changes” over the oceanic ecosystems.

National ocean modeling for Philippine coral reef connectivity

M. M. Noblezada (Marine Science Institute, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines), C. Villanoy, (Marine Science Institute, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines), D. Manalaysay (Marine Science Institute, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines), K. M. Yatco (Marine Science Institute, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines), P. L. Cadelina (Marine Science Institute, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines), P. Pata (Marine Science Institute, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines), C. Benjamin (Marine Science Institute, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines), A. Yniguez (Marine Science Institute, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines)

Abstract details
National ocean modeling for Philippine coral reef connectivity

MM. Noblezada (1) ; C. Villanoy, (1) ; D. Manalaysay (1) ; KM. Yatco (1) ; PL. Cadelina (1) ; P. Pata (1) ; C. Benjamin (1) ; A. Yniguez (1)
(1) Marine Science Institute, University of the philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines

Abstract content

The Philippines being an island nation of 7,100 islands, has one of the longest (34,000 km) coastline in the world characterized by highly complex bathymetry and hydrography. The country’s reef system is extensive (25,000 km2) and its rich marine life is world acknowledge. Coral reefs are critically important ecosystems, as they provide valuable services including resources for coastal communities, buffer vulnerable coastlines from storm surges and habitat to various marine organisms. However, the country’s coral reef system is in a degraded status attributed to various factors including unsustainable exploitation, sedimentation, and more recently events related to climate change such as extreme storms and coral bleaching which have led to declines in the function and resilience of these important ecosystem. Furthermore, Philippines is among the ten most vulnerable nations in the world affected by the impacts of climate change such as sea-level rise and severely damaging typhoons. Key capabilities such as numerical and biophysical modeling and their visualize outputs are valuable due to their capacity to provide a broad overview of connectivity patterns by tracking population sources and sinks as well as predictions of past and future hydrodynamic events. There is a growing evidence and efforts acknowledging connectivity and tracking population sources and sinks play an integral role to bolster resilience and ability of the reef populations to survive disturbances particularly related to climatic change such as typhoons, bleaching events, crown-of-thorns predation and diseases, any of which may increase and severity with changes in climate. This information as well can assist in the identification and monitoring of important or vulnerable habitats and designing management and conservation strategies. Here we present and describe the application of these approaches in determining pattern of reef connectivity in the Philippines. Philippine scale HYCOM model nested to the global HYCOM model runs for both real-time and hind cast mode and Lagrangian particle tracking model driven by the HYCOM hydrodynamic model to estimate coral reef connectivity patterns and matrices will be implemented. Model output will be offered for access near real-time via an OPENDAP server to be setup for disseminating model results. Ongoing model simulations and preliminary results are presented.

Climate Change Affects Marine Fish Distribution: Temporal and Latitudinal Evolution. Approach using GIS Technique and Satellite Data for Data-poor Areas

A. Kaimuddin (Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Plouzané, France), R. Laë (IRD, UMR LEMAR (CNRS/UBO/IRD/IFREMER), INRH, Casablanca, Morocco), L. Tito De Morais (IRD, UMR LEMAR (CNRS/UBO/IRD/Ifremer), IUEM, Plouzané, France)

Abstract details
Climate Change Affects Marine Fish Distribution: Temporal and Latitudinal Evolution. Approach using GIS Technique and Satellite Data for Data-poor Areas

A. Kaimuddin (1) ; R. Laë (2) ; L. Tito De Morais (3)
(1) Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer (IUEM), Laboratoire des sciences de l'Environnement MARin (LEMAR), Plouzané, France; (2) IRD, UMR LEMAR (CNRS/UBO/IRD/IFREMER), INRH, Casablanca, Morocco; (3) IRD, UMR LEMAR (CNRS/UBO/IRD/Ifremer), IUEM, Plouzané, France

Abstract content

Accurate knowledge of physical ocean conditions, i.e. sea surface temperature distribution and temporal variation is needed as a key input in many modeling types that are widely used for various applications. Climate varies naturally across a range of temporal and regional scales reflected by the change in pattern of marine species. Currently, global studies on how temperature changes have been performed in several articles, while studies in smaller region are still few. Besides, collecting the necessary quantitative data on a smaller region is costly.

The most powerful way to collect such comprehensive data is through the use of satellite sensors that measure different types of energy coming from the Earth. Using 30 years recent version of AVHRR SST dataset Pathfinder 5.2 from NOAA polar-orbiting satellite, we observed change of sea surface temperature and its effect in marine species distribution in three marine regions defined in LME (Large Marine Ecosystems) and ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea): Canary current, the South European Atlantic Shelf and the Celtic Seas. Species richness in the middle region is generally higher because many species have their southern or northern distribution limits. The zoogeographic importance of this latitudinal area has long been recognised, representing the transition between north-eastern Atlantic warm-temperate and cold-temperate regions, which makes the zone an area of great sensitivity to the detection of climate change. The magnitude and variation change are differences among the ecosystems. We modeled the potential distribution of three fish species living in different environments: pelagic (Pomatomus saltatrix), benthopelagic (Balistes capriscus), and demersal (Solea senegalensis) to demonstrate the effect of climate change in marine fish distribution. The ability of GIS technique with the integration of Python programming language and the use of global marine environmental raster data from satellite remote sensing, such as sea surface temperature from AVHRR over the past three decades and other oceanic parameters from MODIS and the incorporation of world bathymetric data from GEBCO along with its derivates, we were able to demonstrate the potential distribution of marine fish species in space and time and to capture their northern and/or southern limits as well as to follow the evolution of their suitable area from 1981 to 2013. All species showed a northbound trend. This confirms a clear evidence of ocean warming effect in shifting marine fish distribution. 

The models of species potential distribution were built by projecting the species environmental envelope on the environmental raster time series data. Species environmental envelope or the species realized niche were calculated by estimating the relationship between species records at given sites and the environmental characteristics of those sites with respect to the time of observation. The species records came from various databases. The use of Python programming language for GIS under ArcGISTM environment, allows us to extract the environmental raster values at the locations of species records at the time of observation. This new approach minimizes the biases from different sampling techniques among data sources as well as issues of small sample data size. When cross-checked with the species’ environmental envelope defined in experimental or observational studies, the result yields coherent results for all species observed. Presentations in the form of animated maps, tables and graphics show the evolution of species’ suitable area over time. This approach can be used to generate environmental envelope for a wide range of organisms as well as their potential distribution in data-poor areas and bring a better understanding of climate change effects in the ecosystems. The model will enhance the prediction models available today and will provide valuable information for conservation planning, fisheries, and climate change studies and furthermore contribute in the comprehension of species distribution study as well as management and conservation strategies.

Multi-model ocean biogeochemical predictions: an innovative approach

M. . Dessert (IRD/LPO, Plouzané, France), T. Gorgues (IRD/LPO, Plouzané, France), O. Aumont (IRD/LOCEAN, Paris, France), C. Menkes (IRD/LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia), S. Nicol (Secretariat of Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia), M. Lengaigne (LOCEAN, Paris, NIO, Gao, India), P. Lehodey (Collecte Localisation satellite, Ramonville St Agne, France)

Abstract details
Multi-model ocean biogeochemical predictions: an innovative approach

M. Dessert (1) ; T. Gorgues (1) ; O. Aumont (2) ; C. Menkes (3) ; S. Nicol (4) ; M. Lengaigne (5) ; P. Lehodey (6)
(1) IRD/LPO, Institut universitaire européen de la mer, Plouzané, France; (2) IRD/LOCEAN, Paris, France; (3) IRD/LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia; (4) Secretariat of Pacific Community, Oceanic fisheries programme, Noumea, New Caledonia; (5) LOCEAN, Paris, NIO, Gao, India; (6) Collecte Localisation satellite, Marine ecosystem department, Ramonville St Agne, France

Abstract content

Ocean dynamical-biological models are required tools to address consequences of climate change upon marine biogeochemistry and halieutic resources in the future. For the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) report, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) gathers results of simulations computed from several Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCM, with different physical/biogeochemical Oceanic and/or Atmospheric components). Despite their ability in producing a consistent global warming trend for the future, they are known to display significant biases in the mean state as well as in the variability of the ocean for the historical and present periods along with tremendous regional discrepancies for the future climate variability and marine ecosystems. The discrepancies between the biogeochemical response in these coupled models may arise from the very different biogeochemical components used, whose complexity varies from simple nutrient restoring schemes to the explicit representation of several plankton functional types based on very different physiological assumptions. As a consequence, the comparison of the predictions of these different coupled models, crucial to assess how biogeochemistry may vary in the future, has proven to be very challenging. However the tremendous consequences on higher trophic level predicted by models that use future climate scenarios advocate more than ever for a better understanding and quantification of the predictions uncertainties.

To pin point the most robust changes in response to future climates, we propose an innovative method using a single physical/biogeochemical ocean model (NEMO/PISCES) forced with a mix of more realistic atmospheric forcing fields (improved ERA-interim reanalysis) and atmospheric trends extracted from the coupled climate models for the RCP8.5 scenario. With this method, we produce «state-of-the-art» simulations of the dynamic and biogeochemical state of the ocean which span over the historical (1979-2010) and the future (2011-2100) periods using different climates from different climate coupled models but with common ocean/biogeochemical model. The advantage of this method is to constrain the mean spatial patterns of the ocean forcing fields to remain close to the observations, to retain the desired observed modes of variability while having the changes induced by the anthropogenic perturbations. Using outputs from six CMIP5 coupled models, this method has been successfully applied and the produced forcing datasets have been used to force our dynamical/biogeochemical model for the future period.

These forced simulations exhibit spatial pattern of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) warming similar to the one seen in the corresponding coupled climate models. However, a noticeable difference between the forced and the coupled models can be seen in the equatorial Pacific, and is related to a well known bias of the coupled models (i.e. too weak equatorial upwelling) mostly attenuated with our method. The different forced model simulations exhibit either contrasting or similar patterns between what is produced by our simulations and what is produced by the corresponding climate coupled models. They also exhibit a weaker spread in their biogeochemical projections as compared to the original coupled solutions. It suggests that discrepancies in the modeling of biogeochemical processes in the coupled climate models play a crucial role in the projections spread. However those projections produced by our forced strategy do still show significant differences. As an example, our forced simulations predict a decrease at the end of the century between 5% and more than 10% of the global Primary Production. The volume of the oxygen minimum zone (O2<5mmol.m-3) is also increasing with values bracketed between 10% and 50%. Those changes depend only on the diverse climates used to build our forcing sets. This allows understanding which of the biological patterns are robust across the diverse climates but also which of the biogeochemical models have a functioning different from ours, under a similar climate.

In a companion abstract, our simulations of future biogeochemical states of the ocean are used to force a model of tuna stocks (SEAPODYM) to characterize the potential for future tuna stock changes.

The High-latitude Coral reefs of South Africa: A Canary in the Coral Coal Mine?

M. Schleyer (Oceanographic Research Institute, Durban, South Africa)

Abstract details
The High-latitude Coral reefs of South Africa: A Canary in the Coral Coal Mine?

M. Schleyer (1)
(1) Oceanographic Research Institute, PO Box 10712, Durban, South Africa

Abstract content

Coral reefs are amongst the ecosystems most vulnerable to climate change.  They occur at high-latitude in South Africa where they are at the southernmost limit of their African distribution and are not accretive.  While aragonite saturation and temperature are at levels that limit their growth, other factors including turbulence also play a role in their attenuation.  The reefs are nevertheless rich in biodiversity, having 90 scleractinian and 40 alcyonacean species.  Temperature and community monitoring commenced on the reefs in the early ‘90s and subtle shifts in coral community structure have been recorded, shifting from a tendency toward soft coral dominance to that of hard corals.  Significant coral bleaching occurred in the austral summer of 2000/2001 when sea temperatures exceeded 28°C during a period of high insolation.  Molecular work has shown that the corals are regionally rather isolated and ecologically independent of gene flow from northern reefs along East Africa.  There even is a measure of spatial genetic structure in the corals studied at the reefal scale; the populations appear to be largely self-seeding.  Furthermore, some of the more northern South African reefs seem to act as landing sites for putatively recruited migrants and have high levels of unique or private alleles.  This degree of isolation and the stress to which these high-latitude corals are naturally subjected make them an excellent laboratory to examine the effects of climate change, viz. increasing temperatures and ocean acidification (OA).  They may well manifest some of these effects in advance of the global future of corals.  Representative coral species are thus under intensive study in the face of these stressors, in terms of their reproduction, recruitment, the incidence and progress of disease, and genetic adaptation.  This is being accomplished in the field and a research aquarium equipped to manipulate temperature and OA.  Results will be presented of completed and current work, showing the responses of the corals to these stressors, as well as observations on range shifts in their distribution. However, all the South African coral reefs are well conserved in a marine protected area and reef health appears to mitigate against some of the effects of global change.

Economic valuation and ecological status of coralligenous habitats under climate change

L. Thierry De Ville D'avray (IMBE, Marseille, France), D. Ami, (GREQAM, Marseille, France), A. Chenuil, (IMBE, Marseille, France), R. David (CNRS, MARSEILLE, France), J.-P. Féral, (IMBE, Marseille, France)

Abstract details
Economic valuation and ecological status of coralligenous habitats under climate change

L. Thierry De Ville D'avray (1) ; D. Ami, (2) ; A. Chenuil, (1) ; R. David (3) ; JP. Féral, (1)
(1) IMBE, Marseille, France; (2) GREQAM, Marseille, France; (3) CNRS, IMBE, MARSEILLE, France

Abstract content

Climate change first impacts are on ocean temperature, acidification, nutrient content. In this context marine ecosystems may evoluate in a "no return state". How will be this state ? Study are on progress on marine living beings, but many incertitude remains.

Coralligenous habitats are typical Mediterranean marine coastal habitats identified on most Mediterranean coast at depths between 20 and 120 m. These biogenic hard bottoms, mainly formed by calcareous rhodophytes develop in conditions of reduced light, and at temperature of 13-20°C. With about 1670 species recordedThey are among the most important sources of marine biodiversity in the Mediterranean with Posidonia meadows (UNEP, 2007). This rich biodiversity and ecological functions inherent to the ecosystem are the source of a set of ecosystem services or "biological processes which man can benefit" (Bouvron, 2009). Their use or their perception by Human gives amenities that can lead to an economic evaluation. Current knowledge on coralligenous allows to affirm their contribution to (i) the production of food resources and raw materials, (ii) the regulation of coastal ecosystems, and (iii) the realization of recreation diving fishing thanks to their attractive landscape and abundance of "gourmet" species.

Are the “right” to access to this ressource around Mediterranean sea equal? What are the differents factors that influence the repartition of valuable species, for food security and food “confort”? The study will demonstrate that ecosystem services from coralligenous habitats and economic value of some of these services are impacted by climate change. The impact in quantity and quality of services, may affect the access to differents services, and thus their value.

Slight impacts of marine animals on ocean biogeochemistry under global climate change

S. Lefort (CNRS, Paris, France), O. Aumont (IRD, Paris, France), O. Maury, (IRD, Sète, France), L. Bopp (CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France)

Abstract details
Slight impacts of marine animals on ocean biogeochemistry under global climate change

S. Lefort (1) ; O. Aumont (2) ; O. Maury, (3) ; L. Bopp (4)
(1) CNRS, Paris, France; (2) IRD, Paris, France; (3) IRD, Sète, France; (4) CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Abstract content

We compared two transient climate change simulations of a global coupled biogeochemical-ecosystem model with and without feedbacks of marine animals on biogeochemistry. We found that marine animals have little effect on the biogeochemistry of carbon, but they modify the Net Primary Production (NPP) and oceanic oxygen content. These results imply that marine animals take no significant part in the oceanic storage of carbon under climate change. However, as a link of the food chain, they may attenuate the decrease of NPP under climate change through top down effect, favoring their food supply. On the other hand, as aerobic species, marine animals contribute to decrease the oxygen concentration in the ocean subsurface and increase the volume of hypoxic/anoxic water in the ocean, reducing their habitats.

Effect of rising sea surface temperatures on the extension rates of the massive coral Porites spp from the Philippines

M. Manglicmot (UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology and UP Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, Philippines), C. Ringor, (UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, Quezon City, Philippines), F. P. Siringan (University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, MM, Philippines)

Abstract details
Effect of rising sea surface temperatures on the extension rates of the massive coral Porites spp from the Philippines

M. Manglicmot (1) ; C. Ringor, (2) ; FP. Siringan (3)
(1) UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology and UP Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines; (2) UP Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology, Quezon City, Philippines; (3) University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, MM, Philippines

Abstract content

The integrity of coastal ecosystems is threatened by the effects of warming ocean waters brought about by global climate change. Thermally-sensitive species such as zooxanthellate corals and the reef structures they form are to suffer as they operate at optimal temperatures between 25 to 28°C. Long term coral growth band data provide a continuous record of the responses to increasing sea surface temperatures (SST). Extension and calcification rates of massive corals were enhanced at the onset of warming in the twentieth century but recent studies on the Great Barrier Reef, the Red Sea and the Thai-Malay peninsula reported declines with the further increase in SSTs after the 1990s. Other reefs however showed contrasting results with extension and calcification rates higher at present. The variable results of the studies highlight the need to investigate local responses to increasing SSTs. Philippine reefs comprise 8% of the world’s total, following Indonesia and Australia and is part of the Coral Triangle, described to be centre of marine biodiversity. The impacts of climate change to the country’s reefs cannot be understated. In this study coral growth band data was used to establish the responses of Porites spp from reefs in the Philippines to changes in sea surface temperature over a period of 48 years (1956 to 2004). The linear extension rates (LERs) of Porites spp coral cores from the Calaguas Islands (north Philippine Sea), Parola Island, Kalayaan Island Group/Spratlys (West Philippine Sea), Pamilacan Island (Bohol Sea) and Ayuki and General Islands, Surigao (south Philippine Sea) were measured from the density banding patterns of the coral skeleton revealed through x-radiography. Linear regression and time series analyses were performed to determine interannual and long-term changes in the extension rates. Time series of standardized anomalies of annual LERs of the Porites spp corals from the Philippines all show high interannual variability but the long-term trend displayed a decline in extension rates. The LERs of Porites spp are highly correlated to calcification rates and this decline in extension consequently reflect a decline in the calcification rates of Philippine corals. Different responses at the local level are also evident: the Porites spp from the Calaguas and Surigao reefs the LERs declined significantly at ca 0.38 mm per year and ca 0.16 mm per year respectively. Pamilacan Island showed a significant increase in extension of 0.22 mm per year however a sharp decline in the extension rates of the Pamilacan colony after 2000 is evident. The LERs of the Spratlys colony also decreased but the trend was not significant. The variable results even at the local level indicate complex responses of corals to warming ocean waters. Local factors such as wave energy exposure and interannual climate oscillations such as ENSO may enhance or counteract the effects of higher SSTs. Nevertheless, an overall decrease in the mean extension rates of the Porites corals on a national scale (0.097 mm per year) with an increase of mean annual SSTs of ~0.6°C from 1956 to 2004 was determined and is a cause for alarm as the decline in extension rates and calcification rates of a major reef builder coral, the Porites spp, maybe widespread throughout the Indo-Pacific region.  

Evidence for trophic amplification and attenuation of climate change impacts on groundfish species productivity in the Bering Sea, AK

K. Holsman (NOAA Fisheries, Seattle, Washington, United States of America), A. Hollowed (NOAA, Seattle, United States of America), K. Aydin, (NOAA, Seattle, United States of America), J. Ianelli, (NOAA, Seattle, United States of America), A. Punt, (University of Washington, Seattle, United States of America), A. Hermann, (University of Washington, Seattle, United States of America)

Abstract details
Evidence for trophic amplification and attenuation of climate change impacts on groundfish species productivity in the Bering Sea, AK

K. Holsman (1) ; A. Hollowed (2) ; K. Aydin, (2) ; J. Ianelli, (2) ; A. Punt, (3) ; A. Hermann, (4)
(1) NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, Washington, United States of America; (2) NOAA, Alaska fisheries science centre, Seattle, United States of America; (3) University of Washington, School of aquatic and fishery sciences, Seattle, United States of America; (4) University of Washington, Joint institute for the study of the atmosphere and ocean, Seattle, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate change is expected to impact marine ecosystems globally, with largest changes anticipated for arctic and sub-arctic ecosystems. We used multi-species stock-assessment models to link climate-driven changes in physical and trophodynamic conditions to recruitment and mortality of three Eastern Bering Sea groundfish species (Gadus chalcogrammus, G. macrocephalus, and Atheresthes stomias, herafter pollock, P. cod, and arrowtooth, respectively) in order to distinguish harvest impacts on fish populations from large-scale climate pressures. When we compared model projections under climate scenarios to those under mean historical conditions, we generally found declines in estimated acceptable biological catch (ABC) for pollock and declines in recruitment for both pollock and P. cod. However, projected declines in ABC were sensitive to model specifications of trophic interactions, specifically the strength of bottom-up or top-down controls. Stock assessment models with predation had the largest projected declines in ABC, whereas single-species models without bottom-up controls on recruitment had the lowest projected changes in ABC. Inclusion of trophic interactions amplified climate-driven declines or increases in fish abundances, implying that fisheries models that do not include trophic interactions or climate effects might over-estimate sustainable harvest rates for fish species negatively impacted by climate change (e.g., pollock), and under-estimate harvest rates for predator species positively impacted by climate change (e.g., arrowtooth). Our work emphasizes the need to evaluate multiple future scenarios and model structures when projecting climate effects on fishery species.

Will atmospheric changes impact bioluminescent organisms in the abyss?

S. Martini (IRD, perpignan, France), C. Tamburini (MIO, Marseille, France), S. Escoffier (In2p3, Marseille, France), D. Nerini (MIO, Marseille, France)

Abstract details
Will atmospheric changes impact bioluminescent organisms in the abyss?

S. Martini (1) ; C. Tamburini (2) ; S. Escoffier (3) ; D. Nerini (2)
(1) IRD, perpignan, France; (2) MIO, Marseille, France; (3) In2p3, Marseille, France

Abstract content

The sampling and understanding of complex environmental systems over long time scales aims at the detection of potential disturbances as a shift from the intrinsic variability of these systems. Marine systems are variable at all time and space scales and their variability is still poorly understood due to sampling strategy, instrumentation and spatio-temporal heterogeneity challenges. In response to this lack of knowledge, there is an international effort to capitalize oceanographic data and costs of autonomous and for mobile infrastructures that enables the detection of long term environmental context as well as episodic events or perturbations.

 

The deep-sea ecosystem is unique because of its permanent darkness, coldness, high pressure and scarcity of carbon and energy to sustain life. Most of its biological activity relies on the arrival of carbon in the form of organic matter from surface waters. Ninety percent of the numerous pelagic organisms that inhabit the deep ocean are capable of emitting light through the chemical process of bioluminescence. In this context, the ANTARES* neutrino telescope is a deep-sea cabled observatory situated in the north-occidental Mediterranean sea, close to the French coast. An unanticipated application is to provide a direct method to detect in situ bioluminescence from deep marine organisms, between 2200m and 2500m depth.

 

Our two recent studies show that high bioluminescence intensity periods have been detected since 2006 and are attributed to major water-mass changes due to winter convection. Dense deep water formation occurs during late winter and early spring due to cold, strong and persistent northern winds (Mistral and Tramontane) causing surface cooling of the Modified Atlantic Water both on the shelf and over the deep basin. When the cooled shallow waters on the shelf become denser than the ambient waters, they start sinking, overflow the shelf edge, and cascade downslope until they reach their density equilibrium depth, which may vary from 150 m to more than 2,000 m. These open-sea convections represent a major vector in fueling the deep-sea ecosystem with nutrients, carbon, oxygen and potentially organisms. Such water mass changes have been shown to induce higher bioluminescence emission. Indeed, the input of organic matter into the deep water has the potential to fuel the deep-sea biological activity. Bioluminescent bacteria are potential contributors to high bioluminescent events affected by environmental growth conditions.

 

Dense water formation is likely to be altered by the on-going global warming. Recent models based on the A2 IPCC scenario indicate a strong reduction in the convection intensity in the Mediterranean Sea for the end of the 21st century. This will induces a massive reduction in organic matter supply and ventilation by oxygen input of the deep basin with clear impact on deep organisms that could be detected by bioluminescence survey.

 

* Astronomy with a Neutrino telescop and Abyss Environnemental RESearch

Projecting the state of the Mediterranean Sea Ecosystem under contemporary and future climate

C. Solidoro (Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy), P. Lazzari, (Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy), G. Galli, (Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy), M. C. Donata (Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy), G. Cossarini, (Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, Trieste, Italy), T. Lovato, (centro mediterraneo cambiamenti climatici , bologna, Italy), M. Vichi, (university of cape town, cape town, South Africa), C. Martin, (united nation environmental program world conservation, cambridge, United Kingdom), M. Giannoulaki, (hellenic centre for marine research, iraklion, Greece), M. Scardi, (università tor vergata, roma, Italy)

Abstract details
Projecting the state of the Mediterranean Sea Ecosystem under contemporary and future climate

C. Solidoro (1) ; P. Lazzari, (1) ; G. Galli, (1) ; MC. Donata (1) ; G. Cossarini, (1) ; T. Lovato, (2) ; M. Vichi, (3) ; C. Martin, (4) ; M. Giannoulaki, (5) ; M. Scardi, (6)
(1) Istituto nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale OGS, oceanography, Trieste, Italy; (2) centro mediterraneo cambiamenti climatici , bologna, Italy; (3) university of cape town, cape town, South Africa; (4) united nation environmental program world conservation, Marine assessment and decision support, cambridge, United Kingdom; (5) hellenic centre for marine research, iraklion, Greece; (6) università tor vergata, roma, Italy

Abstract content

A suite of validated three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical-ecological models  is used to assess the impact of future climatic and management scenarios on biogeochemical and ecological properties of the Mediterranean Sea. Results are discussed in term of temporal and spatial distributions of variables and indicators related to physical fields, carbonate system, cycles of carbon and inorganic nutrients, potential changes in higher trophic level organisms dynamics and in the distributions of critical habitats such as Posidonia oceanica  and coralligenous  formations.

The models properly describe available experimental information on contemporary seasonal dynamic and spatial distributions at the basin and sub-basin scales of the major biogeochemical parameters, as well as of primary production, carbon fluxes at the air-ocean interface and spatial distribution of critical habitats.

Model projections suggest that the future Mediterranean Sea will be globally warmer and more acidic, but with significant space variability. Plankton productivity and marine carbon sequestration would increase, even if the net primary production will remain at present level. Model results also indicate that changes in environmental parameters will alter the suitabilities of Poseidonia and Coralligenous over large areas, likely causing a reduction of those habitats. Intensification of extreme events occurence will impair the survival of red coral banks, decrease marine carbon sequestration, negatively impact aquaculture production.  Simulations also highlight the possibility to compensate for adverse effects of climate changes on economic activities by relocating them or by changing management policies.

 

Projected changes on the surface water resources of the Rherhaya basin (High Atlas, Morocco) by a set of Med-CORDEX models

L. Hanich (Faculté des Sciences et Techniques/Université Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech, Morocco), Y. Tramblay (IRD - HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France), A. Marchane (Faculté des Sciences et Techniques/Université Cadi Ayyad, Sciences de la Terre, Marrakech,, Marrakech, Morocco), L. Jarlan (IRD - Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère, Toulouse, France), D. Ruelland (IRD - HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
Projected changes on the surface water resources of the Rherhaya basin (High Atlas, Morocco) by a set of Med-CORDEX models

L. Hanich (1) ; Y. Tramblay (2) ; A. Marchane (3) ; L. Jarlan (4) ; D. Ruelland (2)
(1) Faculté des Sciences et Techniques/Université Cadi Ayyad, Sciences de la Terre, Marrakech, Morocco; (2) IRD - HydroSciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France; (3) Faculté des Sciences et Techniques/Université Cadi Ayyad, Sciences de la Terre, Marrakech,, Sciences de la terre, Marrakech, Morocco; (4) IRD - Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

To anticipate the potential changes in water quantity available within the Rherhaya mountainous watershed (near to Marrakech), it’s important to know the evolution of this resource in relation with climate changes. In this study we use the GR4J model with a snow module with time series of precipitations and discharge (1989 - 2009). The model was calibrated and validated successfully over various periods. Then we used an ensemble of 5 regional climate models (RCM) provided by the Med-CORDEX program with a method of perturbation by quantiles to simulate future scenarios of flow predictions.

The evaluation of the precipitations simulated by the RCMs models (RCM) shows a strong underestimation of ~50% but a good reproduction of the cycle for the temperatures. The future changes according to two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show a rise of the temperatures (+1.4°, +2.6° respectively) in conjunction with a decrease in total precipitation (-19%,- 31%). Concerning the hydrological modeling with GR4J, stable results are obtained for calibration and validation whatever the chosen period, with maximum bias of 15% in validation on the monthly flows.  Flow forecasts (2049-2065) present a strong projected decrease in surface runoff (-30%, -60%) and significant drops of the snow-covered reservoir levels, related to the precipitation decrease and the temperature increase.

Hazard Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Potential of ICTs for Coping: A Case of Eastern Himalaya of Nepal

D. R. Bhattarai (Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal)

Abstract details
Hazard Assessment of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and Potential of ICTs for Coping: A Case of Eastern Himalaya of Nepal

DR. Bhattarai (1)
(1) Tribhuvan University, Central Department of Environmental Science, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract content

Retreat of glaciers and formation of glacial lakes in Nepal Himalaya have been reported to be related with the temperature rise in the region. Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) are the growing climate induced hazards in the Himalaya. GLOF has increased the vulnerability of community and fragile ecosystem in the mountain valleys. This study has analyzed the potential impacts from GLOF in the highland of eastern Nepal and the potential role of Information Communication Technologies (ICT) to cope with such impacts. I analyzed the trend of climatic pattern (temperature and precipitation) of the Eastern Himalaya Region of Nepal available from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Government of Nepal, and prepared the latest location map of the glacial lakes using google earth and ArcGIS applications in the highland of the Kanchanjungha Conservation Area of the region. Tiptala glacial lake, located at an elevation of 4950 m, within the conservation area, was selected for the GLOF hazard assessment. I used semi-structured questionnaire survey and key informants’ interviews in the community in order to assess the potential hazard of GLOF. With the varying sizes, 46 glacial lakes were located in the region, which covers over 2.57 sq. km in total. Though the larger portion of the downstream area of the Tiptala glacial lake fall in the remote location away from major residential area, few villages, major pasture lands for Yaks, foot trails, and several bridges across the Tamor River below the lake are in risk of GLOF. Poor access due to extreme geographical remoteness and capacity to afford the modern technologies in the community are the major limiting factor to the knowledge and information about the climate change and related impacts. Modern ICTs has high potential to reduce the risk of climate related hazards in the remote area by information dissemination and awareness.

The impact of climate change on mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus

V. Vinogradova (Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia)

Abstract details
The impact of climate change on mountain landscapes of the North Caucasus

V. Vinogradova (1)
(1) Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, laboratory of Climatology, Moscow, Russia

Abstract content

Changes in the boundaries of high-altitude mountain belts can be treated as a proof of climate change. These changes were caused by termination of human activities. The presentation shows the role of climatic factors in changes of the boundaries and state of sub-alpine landscapes in the North Caucasus, where the transformation of land use system was observed. These are mainly mountain meadows, which were being shaped for centuries of grazing and are semi-natural formations. The system of mountain land use has been changing for the last decades: nowadays more than 60% of sub-alpine meadows are abandoned.

 

Heat and moisture are the limiting factors of vegetation existence. The estimate of changes in heat and humidity was made for the territory of 42–44N 42–44.5E using vegetation index (NDVI), the index of vegetation conditions (VCI), Satellite Climatic Extremes Index (SCEI) and the sum of active temperatures (air temperature above + 10 °C).

 

Analysis of index changes shows normal humidification on the slopes of the main Caucasian ridge throughout the more humid period (2000–2006). In the second – dry period (2007–2013) for most part of the southern European Russia, the situation is changing. In the foothills moisture decreases, whereas in the middle mountains the increase in moisture is seen. The estimate of the amount of active temperatures and precipitation for the period of modern warming (1981–2010) compared with the previous period (1951–1980) shows the increase of these parameters in the early twenty-first century in the foothills of the North Caucasus. These changes cause the increase in vegetation in the middle mountains of the North Caucasus. It is evidenced by the growth of vegetation index (NDVI) at the beginning of the twenty-first century in this area. And in the areas with low altitudes (500–1000 m) vegetation index decreased after 2006, reflecting degradation of vegetation state. In the middle mountains the increase of vegetation index is observed, showing the improvement on conditions of vegetation.

 

In the middle mountains of the North Caucasus regeneration of natural boundaries of altitude zones is observed: the expansion of mountain-forest belt and restoration of pine forests on the southern slopes; restoration of mountain meadow steppe and steppe sub-alpine meadows on former agricultural terraces; northern slopes overgrown with crooked birch. These processes occur in the context of climate change (rising temperatures, increasing moisture) and reduce of human impact. Thus, climate change and weakening economic activity on the territory lead to restoration of vegetation in the area of middle mountains.

 

Researches were supported by RFFI grant № 14-05 00233А. 

Impact of the Nurek Mountain Water Reservoirs in Tajikistan on Meteorological Conditions and Agriculture of Coastal Area

I. Normatov (Institute of Water problems,Hydropower and Ecology, Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

Abstract details
Impact of the Nurek Mountain Water Reservoirs in Tajikistan on Meteorological Conditions and Agriculture of Coastal Area

I. Normatov (1)
(1) Institute of Water problems,Hydropower and Ecology, Meteorology and Climatology, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Abstract content

        The purpose of the present research is the retrospective comparative analysis of statistical parameters of 60-year temporary ranks of temperature, atmospheric precipitation and humidity and monitoring of influence of the Nurek reservoir on a trend of change of these parameters. For establishment of influence of mountain reservoirs on possible changes of agroclimatic conditions we analyzed a trend of meteorological parameters of two regions of Dangara and Yavan of the Republic of Tajikistan with the developed agricultural branch coastal to the Nurek reservoir. Dynamics of change of humidity of Yavan district demonstrated that humidity of this area had everything the reducing character up to 1980 and was characterized by moderate increase of precipitation. After 1980 sharp increase and humidity and an atmospheric precipitation is observed. Calculations indicate about reduction of an atmospheric precipitation of Yavan for the periods 1950-1979 on 4.7 mm at their increase for the period 1980-2011 to 443 mm that in comparison with 1979 makes about 30%. Change of temperature of Yavan for the period 1980-2011 equals 1.1 C against his increase on 0.97 C for the period 1950-1979. Consequently, existence of the developed network of meteorological stations in mountain districts is pledge of receiving a real scenario of dynamics of meteorological parameters. It should be noted that continuous monitoring of meteorological parameters of large water reservoirs is important from the point of view of development of agriculture. Timely establishment of variations of weather conditions and development of technology of adaptation to the modern meteorological conditions and selection of agricultural grades steady against changes of climatic factors and stressful situations pledge of ensuring food security.

Society adaptation for coping with mountain risks in the climate change context

S. Bernardie (BRGM, Orléans, France), G. Grandjean (BRGM, Orleans, France), N. Desramaut (BRGM, Orléans, France), M. Grémont (BRGM, Montpellier, France), J.-P. Malet (UNISTRA, Strasbourg, France), A. Puissant (UNISTRA, Strasbourg, France), T. Houet (GEODE, Toulouse, France), J.-M. Antoine (GEODE, Toulouse, France), F. Bourrier (IRSTEA, Grenoble, France), M. Fort (PRODIG, Paris, France), D. Pierre (Geo-Hyd, Orléans, France)

Abstract details
Society adaptation for coping with mountain risks in the climate change context

S. Bernardie (1) ; G. Grandjean (2) ; N. Desramaut (1) ; M. Grémont (3) ; JP. Malet (4) ; A. Puissant (4) ; T. Houet (5) ; JM. Antoine (5) ; F. Bourrier (6) ; M. Fort (7) ; D. Pierre (8)
(1) BRGM, Risk and prevention, Orléans, France; (2) BRGM, Risk and Prevention, Orleans, France; (3) BRGM, Montpellier, France; (4) UNISTRA, Strasbourg, France; (5) GEODE, Toulouse, France; (6) IRSTEA, Grenoble, France; (7) PRODIG, Paris, France; (8) Geo-Hyd, Orléans, France

Abstract content

Mountains represent an important part of the global earth system. Because of their vertical extent, climate varies drastically with elevation and thus differs from those in adjacent lowland areas. Natural processes controlled by hydro-meteorological triggers (e.g. floods, landslides, rockfalls) will add further environmental pressures on both social and natural systems, stressing the need to promptly conduct proactive adaptation plans. The relevance of mountain hazard and risk zonation for environmental policy and decision making is set forth in the European Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection and the associated proposal of a Framework Directive, in which hydro-meteorological hazards are considered as one of the soil threats for which it is necessary to identify risk areas where risk reduction measures have to be implemented. However, to implement risk mitigation strategies in an integrated way (e.g. including physical but also economic and social adaptation), additional research is needed on how climate controls mountain hazards occurrence. The influence of climate and climate change on slope stability and floods over various spatial and temporal scales has to be better understood and quantified; studies are also needed on how the main economic, social and political stakeholders interact for the definition of adaptation scenarios at the region scale.

The SAMCO (Society Adaptation for coping with Mountain risks in a global change Context) project aims to develop a proactive resilience framework enhancing the overall resilience of societies on the impacts of mountain risks. The project aims to elaborate methodological tools to characterize and measure ecosystem and societal resilience from an operative perspective on three mountain representative case studies.

To achieve this objective, the methodology is split in several points with (1) the definition of the potential impacts of global environmental changes (climate system, ecosystem e.g. land use, socio-economic system) on landslide hazards, (2) the analysis of these consequences in terms of vulnerability (e.g. changes in the location and characteristics of the impacted areas and level of their perturbation) and (3) the implementation of a methodology for quantitatively investigating and mapping indicators of mountain slope vulnerability exposed to several hazard types, and the development of a GIS-based demonstration platform.

The strength and originality of the SAMCO project is to combine different techniques, methodologies and models (multi-hazard assessment, risk evolution in time, vulnerability functional analysis, and governance strategies) and to gather various interdisciplinary expertises in earth sciences, environmental sciences, and social sciences.

The climate change inputs of the project correspond to at least 2 scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases. The used simulations available on the portal DRIAS (http://www.drias-climat.fr) were performed with the GHG emissions scenarios (RCP: Representative concentration pathways, according to the standards defined by the GIEC) RCP 2.8, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the ALADIN-Climate model of Météo-France, and RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the WRF model used by the IPSL. The impact of climate change is then firstly addressed through the use of these climate scenarios into hazards computations. In that way, future changes in temperature and precipitation volume and patterns are analyzed, permitting to address the direct and indirect impacts of climatic change on mountain societies and their vulnerability to change.

Secondly, the climate change is also considered in global scenarios, with taking into account political actions at local and global scale that might influence the climate change as well as the land use planning in the areas of interest. It is then possible to identify the most important factors of community resilience (e.g. coping capacity) and their dependence upon controlling factors in order to propose risk management strategies adapted to possible impacts of global changes.

Debris flow in the French Alps in changing climate

V. Jomelli (Cnrs, Meudon, France), N. Eckert (Irstea, Grenoble, France), I. Pavlova (Unesco, Paris, France), D. Brunstein (CNRS, Meudon, France)

Abstract details
Debris flow in the French Alps in changing climate

V. Jomelli (1) ; N. Eckert (2) ; I. Pavlova (3) ; D. Brunstein (4)
(1) Cnrs, Physical geography, Meudon, France; (2) Irstea, Etna, Grenoble, France; (3) Unesco, Paris, France; (4) CNRS, Geography, Meudon, France

Abstract content

In the Alps, debris flows are a major threat as they periodically damage infrastructure, may even cause loss of life. The triggering process is definitely sensitive to climate change due to an interaction between meteorological and geomorphological factors, such as extreme precipitation, the local topography or the accumulation of rock debris.  Evaluating the link between climate and debris flow activity is the necessary pre-request to estimate the impacts of future climate change.

Here we analyze the evolution of debris flow occurrence in the French Alps over the last four decades using an innovative probabilistic model which makes it possible to analyse the main environmental and climatic drivers of debris flow occurrence simultaneously, so as to quantify their respective influence at a regional scale.

 

As a case study, we extract 124 debris flow events triggered between 1970 and 2005 in 27 catchments located in the French Alps from the French national natural hazard survey and model their variability of occurrence considering environmental and climatic predictors at the same time. We document the environmental characteristics of each debris flow catchment (morphometry, lithology, land cover, and the presence of permafrost). We also compute 15 climate variables including mean temperature and precipitation between May and October and the number of rainy days with daily cumulative rainfall greater than 10/15/20/25/30/40 mm day-1. Application of our model shows that the combination of environmental and climatic predictors explained 77% of the overall variability of debris flow occurrences in this data set. We also note that the occurrence probabilities depend mainly on climatic variables, which mostly explain the variability through the number of rainy days and maximum daily temperature. This important time component in the variability of overall debris flow occurrence is shown to be responsible for a significant increase in debris flow activity between 1970 and 2005 at regional scale. Environmental variables, which accounts for 1/3 of the overall variability, includes mostly the morphometric variables of the debris flow catchments. 

Creation of modern approach adaptation of water consuming branches to climate changes and degradation of glaciers

P. Normatov (Tajik National University, Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

Abstract details
Creation of modern approach adaptation of water consuming branches to climate changes and degradation of glaciers

P. Normatov (1)
(1) Tajik National University, Meteorology and Climatology, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Abstract content

One is actual problems of modernity is Global Climate Change and adequate   behavior of the each component of ecosystems to this change. For the Tajikistan 93% territory, which do mountains and which characterized by availability more 8500 glaciers by the total area of 8476.2 km2 occupy, or about 6% of all territory of the Republic of Tajikistan is very important. There is a large unit of conglomeration in mountains of Northwest Pamir with the center of Fedchenko glacier - the largest mountain glacier in the world. By 1988, the glacier has receded more than on 500 m and has decreased on the area for four square kilometers. Average speed of step of Fedchenko glacier for the last century made 10-12 meters one year. Average speed of movement of glacier in connection with loss of weight has decreased with 72 up to 69 sm daily. In total for 20th century the glacier has lost about 12-15 km3 ice. For last 16 years (1990 - 2006 years) a glacier of the Zeravshan River Basin has receded on 35-55 m  annually the average its speed has made about 3 m per year though in the eightieth years of the last century it has made about 8 m annually. The created situation and prospect of development of the given trend of reduction of glaciers stimulates search of modern methods in preservation and an effective utilization of water resources. In this plan, building of reservoirs for water accumulation and corresponding corrective amendments in planning of the water use in agriculture is actual.

 

Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water-Related Changes in the Andes of Peru: Challenges and Future Implications

F. Drenkhan (University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland), C. Huggel (University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland), J. Seidel (University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany)

Abstract details
Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water-Related Changes in the Andes of Peru: Challenges and Future Implications

F. Drenkhan (1) ; C. Huggel (1) ; J. Seidel (2)
(1) University of Zürich, Department of geography, Zürich, Switzerland; (2) University of Stuttgart, Institute for modelling hydraulic and environmental systems, Stuttgart, Germany

Abstract content

One sixth of the world’s population lives in river catchments supplied by snow and glacier melt, and is therefore considered to be affected by climate change impacts on the cryosphere and water resources. In the tropical Andes glaciers have been a crucial source for societies and livelihoods for thousands of years. Nonetheless, climatic and non-climatic stressors pose potential risks and challenges to the provision of water resources and linked ecosystem services, both in terms of quantity and quality. Mountain communities in Peru are considered to be highly vulnerable to changes in water availability due to a strong exposure to climate change impacts and limited adaptive capacity. However, comprehensive analyses of water-related risks considering multi-dimensional drivers across different scales in the framework of climate change are complex and barely addressed in climate-sensitive mountain regions with limited data availability.

Here we present a comprehensive data assessment study for two major catchments in the Andes of Peru: Santa River (Ancash region) and Vilcanota River (Cusco region). These river basins, which comprise various ecosystems, hold the largest tropical glacier mass worldwide and are particularly exposed to climate change impacts. In the upstream areas, snow and glaciers store fresh water and buffer low flows during the dry season. Decreasing ice volume and changes in climatic patterns will subsequently alter river runoff characteristics.

For these study areas, we analyze to what extent both water supply and demand of two mountain catchments can be assessed using multiple data sources such as ground-based (air temperature, precipitation and discharge records) and remote sensing (TRMM precipitation, MODIS evapotranspiration and snow cover) data. Furthermore, we include a first assessment of socioeconomic key drivers identified by expert interviews with local and international stakeholders, decision-makers and water users. We propose an integrative water balance model approach which combines the main key variables of water supply and demand under hydrological risks considering climate-related hazards, human and natural vulnerability and exposure assessments.

Diurnal cycle processes associated with precipitation in central Andes (Peru)

C. Junquas (Instituto geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru), K. Takahashi (Instituto geofisico del Peru, Lima, France), S. Chavez Jara (Instituto geofisico del Peru, Lima, France), T. Condom (IRD, Grenoble, France), J. C. Espinoza (Instituto geofisico del Peru, Lima, France)

Abstract details
Diurnal cycle processes associated with precipitation in central Andes (Peru)

C. Junquas (1) ; K. Takahashi (2) ; S. Chavez Jara (2) ; T. Condom (3) ; JC. Espinoza (2)
(1) Instituto geofisico del Peru, Lima, Peru; (2) Instituto geofisico del Peru, Lima, France; (3) IRD, Lthe, Grenoble, France

Abstract content

The identification of regional atmospheric processes is important to understand how the greenhouse gases increase in the atmosphere could affect the precipitation and the water resources at a regional scale.

The atmospheric processes in the tropical Andes climate are of particular interest because in this region, mechanisms are associated with the interplay of complex orography and convective processes characterizing the tropical climate. In the central Andes, physical processes associated with the humidity transport between the wet Amazon on the east and the dry Pacific on the west, and the spatio-temporal distribution of the precipitation are little understood.

The Andes cordillera is extended over almost all South America, that are 7000km between 45°S and 7°N. Its maximum width is 1800km in its central part. This configuration is unique in the planet, and consequently the glaciers in the tropical Andes represent 99% of the world tropical glaciers. These glaciers show a retreat since the PIA with an unprecedent acceleration since 70’s. The risks generated by such glacier retreat are here in terms of hydrological resources, agriculture, hydro-electricity, and turism. Tropical glaciers mass balance is strongly depending of humidity and precipitation, so it is important to study localized associated atmospheric processes. The identification of high-resolution horizontal scale climate mechanisms (some km) in terms of diurnal cycle could particularly help to understand how the atmospheric circulation influence the glaciers mass balance at diurnal time-scales. The characterization of humidity fluxes and of the associated spatial distribution of the precipitation in central Andes, with in addition the understanding of localized atmospheric processes in terms of diurnal cycle variability are the main objectives of this study.

Due to a poor number of in-situ meteorological stations in the region of the central Andes, we consider that a dynamical downscaling using a regional climate model is the most adequate methodology to improve the understanding of localized orographic processes in this region. The WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model is used to simulate the climatological diurnal cycle of the wet season (austral summer) in the Cuzco region (central Andes), at a 9-km horizontal resolution and 3-hourly time resolution. The precipitation model outputs are compared with radar products of TRMM-2A25 and in-situ observations. Results show that the model is able to reproduce the main diurnal precipitation features with rainfall maximum in the western cordillera during the afternoon, and in the eastern part of the cordillera during the night. The model also simulates both mechanical and thermo-dynamical orographic processes. For example, while some valleys are mainly affected by the well-known diurnal thermal valley/mountain circulation, others are more influenced by the large-scale moisture flow. This difference seems to be linked with the width and the orientation of the different valleys. 

On the impacts of global warming on the deep peri-alpine Lake Geneva

S. Goyette (Institute for Environmental Sciences, Carouge, Switzerland), M. Perroud (Institute for Environmental Sciences, Carouge, Switzerland)

Abstract details
On the impacts of global warming on the deep peri-alpine Lake Geneva

S. Goyette (1) ; M. Perroud (1)
(1) Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Carouge, Switzerland

Abstract content

Observations over the period 1880 to 2012 indicate that the globally-averaged surface temperature data has increased from 0.65°C to 1.06°C IPCC (2013). During the 20th century, European climate experienced a surface air temperature warming of 0.9°C, resulting in a wide range of impacts that followed the first signs of change. Global-mean surface temperature exhibits temporal and spatial variability. According to projections made for future climate, southern and central Europe would experience the largest changes in mean air temperature during summer while the northern regions would be more strongly affected during winter. Higher inland freshwater temperatures have been reported in response to warmer conditions. In many western European lakes climate warming has resulted in increased water column stability, longer stratified periods, and warmer temperatures in the epilimnion. These findings are in agreement with the observations for other middle- and high-latitude lakes. Jeppesen et al. (2012) analysed the impacts of climate warming on the long-term dynamics of key fish species in 24 European lakes and found the mean water temperature of Lake Geneva increased by 0.17°C per decade since 1986, and lake stratification occurs “apparently” one month earlier than it did 30 years ago. This has impacted the fishery, with conditions favouring warmer water species and a dramatic reduction in some others. While the impacts of changes in climate in the Alps have been reported by many authors, very few studies have attempted to relate future climate projections to their potential impacts on peri-alpine lakes. This enhances the need to lead investigations on a variety of lakes, grabbing the opportunity to develop new methods. In order to avoiding the computational load of complex models such as Global or Regional Climate Models, the use of a Single-Column atmospheric Model (SCM) coupled to a lake model provides a practical and economical framework for assessing the sensitivity of water temperature profiles to current and perturbed climatic conditions. Lake Geneva is a 89 km3 body of water shared by Switzerland and France, and greatly exceeds in size and depth all others that are connected with the main valleys of the Alps. Analyses reported by Anneville et al. (2013) from long-term observations and findings of research projects both led to the conclusion that climate change has already impacted Lake Geneva ecosystems and these are likely to continue when considering the predictions based on complex climate models. In a recent study on Lake Geneva by Perroud and Goyette (2012) using a SCM coupled to a lake model, it has been shown that increasing the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration impacted the lake’s thermal structure, increasing the stability of the water column and extending the stratified period by 3 weeks. Epilimnetic temperatures were seen to increase by 2.6°C to 4.2°C, while hypolimnion temperatures increased by 2.2°C. Climate change modified components of the surface energy budget through changes in air temperature, moisture, and cloud cover. A strong rate of change in the epilimnion temperature found in Spring, would lead to an earlier onset of thermocline formation and this may explain the advance in spawning as reported by Gillet and Quetin (2006). At the same time, changes in plankton population dynamics with an advance of the spring bloom can be expected and may affect the timing of the clear-water phase of the lake. Climate, freshwater, biophysical and socio-economic systems are interconnected in complex ways (IPCC, 2008). Freshwater-related issues are critical in determining regional and sectoral vulnerabilities, as aquatic ecosystems provide a wide range of goods and services. Therefore, the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is of primary concern to human society and also has implications for all living species.

Anneville, O., et al., 2013: Arch.Sci., 66, 157-172.

Bates, B. C., et al., 2008:  IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.

Gillet, C. and Quetin, P., 2006: J. Fish Biology, 69, 518 – 34.

Perroud, M., and S. Goyette, 2012 :Water Resour. Res., 48, doi:10.1029/2011WR011222

Jeppesen, E., et al. 2012. Hydrobiologia, 694, 1-39.

IPCC, 2013: WGI, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Historical and future changes in precipitation and snow in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya region as seen by CMIP5 models

E. Palazzi (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Torino, Italy), S. Terzago (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Torino, Italy), J. Von Hardenberg (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), Torino, Italy), A. Provenzale, (Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IGG), Pisa, Italy)

Abstract details
Historical and future changes in precipitation and snow in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya region as seen by CMIP5 models

E. Palazzi (1) ; S. Terzago (1) ; J. Von Hardenberg (1) ; A. Provenzale, (2)
(1) Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC), National Research Council (CNR), Torino, Italy; (2) Institute of Geosciences and Earth Resources (IGG), National research council (cnr), Pisa, Italy

Abstract content

The Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya (HKKH) mountains and the Tibetan plateau are the world's largest snow and ice reservoir outside the polar regions and they are often referred to as the “Third Pole”. These mountains feed the most important Asian river systems, and changes in snow and precipitation dynamics in this area could severely impact on water availability for downstream populations, agriculture and energy production, ecosystems and biodiversity.

Despite their importance, precipitation and snowpack characteristics in the HKKH region are still poorly known, owing to the limited availability of surface observations in this remote and high elevation area. Global Climate Models (GCMs) still have too coarse spatial resolution to reproduce the small scale variability of precipitation and snow in orographically complex environments. Nevertheless, they may be effective in providing, even at a regional scale, a smooth but coherent picture of the large scale temporal and spatial patterns of these two variables in these areas. The quantification of the uncertainties in GCM simulations is essential to define the models skills in reproducing climate variability and to critically analyze future climate change projections.

We investigate how the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation and snowpack in the HKKH region is represented in historical and future simulations of the state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the CMIP5 effort, and we investigate the role of elevation-dependent surface warming. The model outputs in the historical period are compared with the main, currently available, observational datasets including surface- and satellite-based observations and reanalysis data. 

Implications of Depleting Himalayan Cryosphere under Changing Climate

S. Romshoo (University of Kashmir, Sringar, India)

Abstract details
Implications of Depleting Himalayan Cryosphere under Changing Climate

S. Romshoo (1)
(1) University of Kashmir, Earth Sciences, Sringar, India

Abstract content

Lidder tributary in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of the Alpine Himalayas, India, an important source of surface and ground water, is experiencing clear indications of climate change. In the basin, minimum, maximum and average temperatures are showing a significant increasing trend in all the four seasons. Precipitation is showing insignificant decrease over time in the basin, however the proportion of the snow in precipitation has decreased and the proportion of the rain has correspondingly increased. The temperature projections also show increasing trends for the end of this century. The time series analysis of the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) from MODIS satellite shows a depletion of the snow-cover in the region. Furthermore, during the last 51 years, the glacier area in the basin has decreased from 46.09 km2 in 1962 to 33.43 km2 in 2013, a depletion of 27.47%. As a result of the glacier recession in the basin, the streamflow fed predominantly by snow- and glacier-melt, is overall showing a statistically significant decline. However, the spring disharge is showing an increase, might be due to the early melting of the snow due to warmer springs. The declining streamflows have potential to adversely affect agriculture, energy production, tourism and even domestic water supplies. In the Kashmir Himalayas, one of the major concerns about the climate change relates to its impact on streamflows in the Indus basin, whose waters are shared between India and Pakistan under the Indus Water Treaty. Snow and ice reserves of the Himalayan river basins, important in sustaining seasonal water availability over South Asia, are likely to be substantially affected by climate change, but to what extent is yet unclear.  Therefore, it is of utmost importance to develop strategies for the conservatizing of the depleting water resources in the region. Accordingly, Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) was tested for estimating the runoff from this glaciated basin on an operational basis. The average simulated runoff at the outlet 11.94 m3/s is in concordance with the average measured runoff 13.51 m3/s showing R2 of 0.82. The model could thus be used for snowmelt runoff estimation, on an operational basis, for judicious utilization of the depleting water resources in the region.

The Himalayan Cryosphere and Highlanders' Adaptability: A Case Study of the Miyar Valley of Himachal Pradesh and North Sikkim in the Indian Himalaya

U. Lal (Sikkim University, Gangtok, Sikkim, India)

Abstract details
The Himalayan Cryosphere and Highlanders' Adaptability: A Case Study of the Miyar Valley of Himachal Pradesh and North Sikkim in the Indian Himalaya

U. Lal (1)
(1) Sikkim University, Geography, Gangtok, Sikkim, India

Abstract content

Rugged topography coupled with high altitudinal areas between the Great Himalayan Range and the southern flank of the Tibetan Plateau presented a stage where the elements of Nature has been more pronounced than normally they are at other places. Thus, the history of the highlanders of the area has been basically the history of their direct response to the vacillation in the various elements of the climate. The highlanders of 3000 meters and above in both the Himalayan and Trans-Himalayan mountain-scape responded directly to such changes which basically lead to changes in the Cryosphere.  

 Wandering of the Highlanders across rugged valleys and jagged pastures and passes in and across the Himalaya for trans-ecological exchanges. Initially, it was more of an ecological compulsion for a tenable survival amid harsh environmental conditions of higher altitudinal regions than for fortune or better resources. Thus, leading to making of the neighbouring highland societies both collaborator and competitor at the sometime.

With the basic premise that like any other place on the planet; Himalayan landscape did registered episodes of cooling and warming resulting into both glacial maximum and glacial minimum periods. Thus, resulting into advancement and retreat of permanent snowline in the area. This paper is an attempt to study the human inhabitation response to the cryospheric fluctuations based on the field investigation from Miyar Valley of Himachal Himalaya and North Sikkim in Sikkim Himalaya lying in Western and Eastern Himalaya respectively. This paper also underscores that remote Himalayan valleys have been inhabited since quite an early time rather than being colonised in the recent past.

The study combines the moraine sampling and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) analysis with simple random sampling and Focus Group Discussion to comprehend and capture the rough period of legends of rise and fall of remote Himalayan Villages which seems to be following the pattern of glacial maximum and minimum periods. 

Agent-Based Modeling of Reasonable Consumption for Grassland Ecosystem Supply Service in Inner Mongolia, China

H. Yan (IGSNRR,CAS, Beijing, China), P. L. (IGSNRR, Beijing, China), L. Zhen, (IGSNRR, CAS, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Agent-Based Modeling of Reasonable Consumption for Grassland Ecosystem Supply Service in Inner Mongolia, China

H. Yan (1) ; P. L. (2) ; L. Zhen, (3)
(1) IGSNRR,CAS, Beijing, China; (2) IGSNRR, Beijing, China; (3) IGSNRR, CAS, Beijing, China

Abstract content

Sustainable ecosystem service is of vital importance to the survival and development of human society. How to balance the conflicts between the ecosystem protection and the ecological consumption of local residents has been a serious challenge today especially in ecologically vulnerable area. In order to find out reasonable consumption approaches of the grassland ecosystem supply service and explore the sustainable land management strategies for the local social-ecosystem, taking Hulun Buir, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region as the case study region, based on the agents’ behaviors rules derived from households survey, a Agent-Based Model (ABM) has been developed in this study for simulating the ecosystem consumption pressure under different grassland management scenarios. This model links the supply and consumption of grassland ecosystem service by calculating ecosystem NPP supply and households NPP consumption. The model includes three sub-models: Individual growth status sub-model, Households’ land-use decision sub-model, and Ecosystem service consumption pressure sub-model. In accordance with the multi-objective land management practices in case study area, four land management scenarios were modeling in this study, (1) business as usual, (2) aiming at increasing household’s living level, (3) aiming at ecosystem protection and (4) aiming at balancing the ecosystem protection and living level improvement. The result indicate that reasonable ecosystem service consumption mode is possible in the research region, under which the indicators including ecosystem pressure, NPP supply, forage consumption of livestock, households incomes and herders’ living level could reach a reasonable and sustainable level, This reasonable consumption mode is an improvement of traditional grazing mode, which could stimulate herders to control the livestock marketing rate by rational ecological compensation measurements, so as to ensures the NPP consumption is close to but never beyond the threshold. 

Pitfalls in reconciling greenhouse gas mitigation and biodiversity conservation

N. Fromin (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
Pitfalls in reconciling greenhouse gas mitigation and biodiversity conservation

N. Fromin (1)
(1) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, Montpellier, France

Abstract content

Current environmental policies urgently call for climate change mitigation strategies. Among these, biological sequestration of carbon (C) in soils through plant and soil management was identified as one of the most promising. Compared to other strategies such as oceanic sequestration or solar radiation management, biological C sequestration is cost effective, ecologically more attractive, relatively easily applicable, and has minimal side effects (Cusack et al. 2014). The potential for biological C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems at the global scale is estimated between 1.7 and 2.4 GT C per year, which is roughly one fourth of the 9 GT C released annually to the atmosphere through human activity.

Biodiversity is often presented as critical to explain ecosystem processes, because more diverse organisms may exploit more efficiently the resources available in their environment. Yet, altering biodiversity might have strong functional consequences for C sequestration. The few meta-analyses dealing with biodiversity / ecosystem process relationships suggest, however, that protecting biodiversity is not necessarily the best way to optimize C sequestration in soils. Reciprocally, management strategies identified as favorable to C sequestration sometimes cause side effects on habitat structure and biodiversity. Because the conservation of biodiversity is also an internationally recognized priority in environmental policy, the potential for C sequestration management and its application must be assessed intimately with their consequences for biodiversity and sustainable development in the wider sense.

The proposed soil management strategies for increasing C sequestration include afforestation / reduction of deforestation, biofuel energy plantations, no-till or conservative tillage systems, nutrient management and the use of biochar. In this poster, I will present their respective potential for C sequestration, their feedbacks on biodiversity, but also their reliability, ecological risks, and their economic and social acceptance. The literature treating biological C sequestration increasingly referred to it as an ‘ecosystem service’ in its own right. However, as I will show, C sequestration is a complex process with strong scale dependent properties and interacting with other ecosystem functions in often non-linear ways. Therefore, I will argue that C sequestration cannot be evaluated in isolation of other ecosystem functions and should not be identified as an independent ‘ecosystem service’. 

 

Cusack et al. (2014) An interdisciplinary assessment of climate engineering strategies. Frontiers in Ecology.

Community Forest of Nepal: How it maintains ecosystem services and maintain sustainability?

B. Khadka (Yokohama National University, Kanagawa, Japan)

Abstract details
Community Forest of Nepal: How it maintains ecosystem services and maintain sustainability?

B. Khadka (1)
(1) Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan

Abstract content

Community forestry is a participatory forest management system in Nepal. Till date 17,000 community forest (around 1.2 million ha) forest is managing directly from the 1.5 million people.

Research shows that the environmental services provided by the Community forest such as provisioning services, regulatory services, cultural services, supporting services, biodiversity conservation, water purification and regulation, soil erosion protection, forest recreation and carbon storage are gaining some attention and need to protect the future of the forests linking commercial market and climate change adaptation and mitigation issues activity to conservation objectives from past 30 years. Moreover, selling forest environmental services for the coping with climate change should ensure through the effective payment system in securing forest environmental benefits and their role in effort to eliminate rural poverty and also helps further for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The government of Nepal is developing different policy and management plan how can get more benefit from the community forest such as Payment for ecosystem services, Carbon market, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and degradation plus, ecotourism, green jobs from the forest etc which can make direct benefit to the community people and helps to cope with climate change.

This research explore how community forest maintains ecosystem services and maintains sustainability, resilience development for community?   

Climate change impacts on global faunas: the causes and consequences of range shifts

E. Leyequien (CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN CIENTÍFICA DE YUCATÁN, Merida, Yucatan, Mexico), J. Verboom (WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE, Wageningen, Netherlands), W. F. De Boer (WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE, Wageningen, Netherlands), T. Essens ( Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen, Netherlands), J. A. Harvey ( Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen, Netherlands), C. Vos (WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE, Wageningen, Netherlands)

Abstract details
Climate change impacts on global faunas: the causes and consequences of range shifts

E. Leyequien (1) ; J. Verboom (2) ; WF. De Boer (3) ; T. Essens (4) ; JA. Harvey (4) ; C. Vos (2)
(1) CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN CIENTÍFICA DE YUCATÁN, Unidad de recursos naturales, Merida, Yucatan, Mexico; (2) WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE, Alterra, Wageningen, Netherlands; (3) WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY AND RESEARCH CENTRE, Resource ecology group, Wageningen, Netherlands; (4) Netherlands Institute of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Department of terrestrial ecology, Wageningen, Netherlands

Abstract content

Anthropogenic climate change has affected Earth’s biota on all continental and ocean territories. Global and regional climatic changes affect the world’s faunas, causing among others shifts in their geographic ranges, changes in their seasonal activities, species turnover, increasing the risk of extinction, of spread of diseases and of invasive species. Species’ range shifts have been the focus of attention of climate change studies, and vast amounts of correlational evidence show that the geographic range of species around the world is shifting either in latitude or elevation in response to climate change. There is no doubt of the importance of correlational studies describing the connection between the range shifts in species and climate change, however a great challenge in ecology is to commute from a simple correlational claim to the understanding of the underlying causal mechanisms. Understanding species’ range shifts relative to climate changes entails knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms of the observed phenomena, to ultimately understand the future directions of global faunas under climatic changes. Mechanistic explanations of animal range shifts – or their absence - should account for ecological traits that strongly influence species’ responses to climate change. For example physiological thresholds that determine climatic limits to species distributions, or biotic interactions (e.g., inter and intra-species competition) in which intricate web relations and feedbacks influence the distribution of animal species. Other example is species’ dispersal limitations that may compromise their capability to disperse at rate that is sufficient to track the changes in suitable bioclimatic space, causing time lags and thereby leading to novel community structures and novel interactions. We propose a comprehensive framework linking mechanistic explanations to causal claims in explaining range shifts, present and future, under changing climate zones. First, we illustrate the mechanistic explanations underlying animal range shifts driven by climate changes using a series of case studies contrasting the northern and southern hemispheres.  We discuss as well the resulting effects exerted by range shifts at different ecological levels, from micro-evolutionary processes through selection of phenotypes, to ecological communities and ecosystems; and identify consequential feedback loops. Our theoretical framework provides a synthetic robust broader approach that links hypotheses and underlying mechanisms to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on global faunas, and provides grounds for generalisations that can direct future research and lead to evidence-based solutions to climate change challenges.

Maintaining Habitat Connectivity for Vulnerable Ungulate to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change in Isfahan Province, Iran

S. Malakoutikhah (Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran), S. Fakheran (Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran), A. Soffianian (Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran), J. Senn (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Maintaining Habitat Connectivity for Vulnerable Ungulate to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change in Isfahan Province, Iran

S. Malakoutikhah (1) ; S. Fakheran (1) ; A. Soffianian (1) ; J. Senn (2)
(1) Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan university of technology, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Wsl, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract content

Climate change is predicted to have substantial negative impacts on biodiversity for a wide variety of taxa across many regions of the world. The combined effects of climate change, habitat fragmentation and land use change is the most important conservation challenge we face. Maintaining connectivity is the most recommended strategy for conserving species in onset of climate change. In this study, we identified and evaluated migration corridors for two vulnerable ungulate species, the wild sheep (Ovis orientalis isphahanica), and the goitered gazelle (Gazella subguterrosa) between Mooteh and Ghamishloo wild life refuges in Isfahan province, Iran. Migration of goitered gazelle and wild sheep between these wildlife refuges is related to seasonal change in environmental conditions. To identify migration corridors, two connectivity models were used, Least-Cost Corridor (LCC), and Circuit Theory. Using LCC, two corridors were selected for each target species. The first least-cost corridors for the species included habitats of highest quality (lowest resistance) which stands for the minimum costs for movement. Theses corridor for giotered gazelle covered about 158 km2 (7.5% of the total area) and the one for Wild sheep covered 151 km2 (7.2% of the total area). Although the identified corridors in this study are currently used for round migrations between Mooteh and Ghamishloo wildlife refuges, they are most likely to be served as one way migration corridors from Ghamishloo to Mooteh protected area assisting the species to shift their ranges in response to climate change in an immediate future. Climatic conditions in Mooteh compared to Ghamishloo in terms of annual rainfall (249.16 mm in Mootieh in compared to 180.9 mm in Ghamishloo) and minimum average temperature (-8.5C in Mooteh compared to -1.6 C in Ghamishloo) indicates that Mooteh wildlife refuge will be used as a refugia to buffer these ungulates from the impacts of drought and climate change in this region.We conclude that protecting and incorporating of the remaining suitable migration corridors into the existing protected areas network of Iran is an urgent need in order to secure the survival of the migratory species. As the study area is not protected at present and is very likely to be developed in near future, it is very important identifying the areas with the easiest movement routes for future conservation which, if conserved, provide the easiest movement routes assisting species in the face of climate change and land use change.  Improving connectivity is not only strategically smart, but a proven method of allowing wildlife to move in response to rapid environmental change.

 

 

Key words: Wildlife corridor, Climate changes, Ungulates, Connectivity, Circuit theory, Least cost modeling

 

 

Commodifying Nature, Where we were mistaken with Ecosystem Service Classification

A. Dhungana (Center for Climate and Environment Research, Lalitpur, Nepal)

Abstract details
Commodifying Nature, Where we were mistaken with Ecosystem Service Classification

A. Dhungana (1)
(1) Center for Climate and Environment Research, Policy and Economics Research Unit, Lalitpur, Nepal

Abstract content

Economic theory driven ecosystem valuation has been the fundamental areas for the Ecosystem Service (ES) and Payment for Ecosytem Services research in the last decade. The Classification of ES by MEA 2005, has diverted the whole research community to think Nature as a Commodity and the research community for this whole decade spend their huge effort in the monetary valuation of Nature, but still we are far away from the solution within nature-human-development nexus. The major problems in this classification was with the cultural service, weighted in similar fashion with other three provisional, supporting and regulating service. Our empirical Study has shown that, with all those three services, cultural service was interconnected and no way can be treated as a separate class. Besides, the complexity of natural process like hydrological cycle, nutient cycle and climate cycle, which were categorized in regulating and supporting services needed research on the long term nature, and it can no way be monitised like other economic goods, and hence resulted in the failure to measure and manage it for the transformative solutions in our societies. The economic theory like utility and welfare theories in no way could justify the interlinkage of nature and economy.

On the need to integrate microclimates and thermal limits when forecasting warming tolerance of organisms

S. Pincebourde (CNRS, Tours, France), J. Casas, (Université François Rabelais, Tours, France)

Abstract details
On the need to integrate microclimates and thermal limits when forecasting warming tolerance of organisms

S. Pincebourde (1) ; J. Casas, (2)
(1) CNRS, Institut de Recherche sur la Biologie de l'Insecte (IRBI), Tours, France; (2) Université François Rabelais, Institut de recherche sur la biologie de l'insecte (irbi), Tours, France

Abstract content

The impact of warming on the persistence and distribution of ectotherms is often forecasted from their warming tolerance―inferred as the difference between their upper thermal limit and habitat temperature, which is usually taken as the macroclimate temperature. Ectotherms, however, are thermally-adapted to their microclimates, which can deviate substantially from macroscale conditions. Ignoring microclimates can therefore bias estimates of warming tolerance. We compared warming tolerance of a leaf miner insect across its ontogeny when calculated from macro- and microclimate temperatures. We used a heat balance model to predict experienced microclimate temperatures from macroclimate, and we measured thermal limits for several life stages (egg, larval stages 4 and 5, and pupae). The model shows a concomitant increase in microclimate temperatures and thermal limits across insect ontogeny despite they all experience the same macroclimate. Consequently, warming tolerance, as estimated from microclimate temperature, remained constant across ontogeny. When calculated from macroclimate temperature, however, warming tolerance was wrong by over 7-10°C depending on the life stage. Therefore, large errors are expected when predicting persistence and distribution shifts of ectotherms in changing climates using macroclimate rather than microclimate.

A theoretical analysis of a hypothetical auction program to pay for biodiversity in Peruvian Amazon nuts (Bertholletia excelsa) ecosystems

P. Flores Tenorio

Abstract details
A theoretical analysis of a hypothetical auction program to pay for biodiversity in Peruvian Amazon nuts (Bertholletia excelsa) ecosystems

P. Flores Tenorio ()

Abstract content

 

Peru is a megadiverse country with the second extension of forests in the Amazon basin. The design of efficient public policies for these territories is challenging due the fragility of public institutions and lack of economic valuation of important ecosystem services provided from old-growth forests.

This paper develops preliminary a dynamic system model and a theoretical analysis from the ecological economics perspective for a key non-timber forest product of the Peruvian Amazon basin: the Amazon nut (Bertholletia excelsa). Specially, we analyse the bioeconomic dimensions of two ecosystem services: pollination and the forest cover to provide habitat for flora and fauna.

The contribution of this paper is to present evidence that support the argument that decision makers from development countries have an excellent investment opportunity for conservation of biodiversity in indigenous lands with Amazon nuts.

Sectoral contributions to the conservation of biodiversity

M. Kok (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands)

Abstract details
Sectoral contributions to the conservation of biodiversity

M. Kok (1)
(1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands

Abstract content

In 2014, governments within the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) reviewed progress in the achievement of the goals and targets set in the Strategic Plan on Biodiversity 2010-2020, as a step towards halting the loss of biodiversity as envisioned in the 2050 Biodiversity Vision. Although there has been an increase in responses to stop the further loss of biodiversity, this progress is insufficient to attain most of the Aichi Targets by 2020, nor can under current trends a stabilization of biodiversity loss towards 2050 be expected. This is for a large part due to persistent increases in pressures. To be able to address these, biodiversity policies need to address primary production sectors. Developments in sectors such as food production and agriculture, wood production and forestry, energy production, water management and fisheries largely shape the world’s current and future biodiversity, as they exert direct pressures on biodiversity.

 

Related to the Aichi targets on sustainable use we identify different pathways that could contribute to achieving the 2050 Biodiversity Vision. Pathways are combinations of technological measures and behavioural changes, for food production and wood production and consumption. Biodiversity goals in these pathways are realized as part of a broader set of sustainability objectives, including eradicating hunger, feeding an increased and more wealthy world population, providing universal access to modern energy, preventing dangerous climate change and controlling air pollution. The pathways were evaluated, using the IMAGE-GLOBIO integrated assessment modelling framework.  The analysis shows that it is possible to couple improvements in the trend of biodiversity, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the well-being of all people simultaneously, but that this requires substantial transformations in the sectors we researched.

A Perspective on Conservation of Sub-Tropical Grassland in Eastern Himalaya

D. Das (ATREE, Bengalure, India)

Abstract details
A Perspective on Conservation of Sub-Tropical Grassland in Eastern Himalaya

D. Das (1)
(1) ATREE, Bengalure, India

Abstract content

The matrix of riverine grasslands and grassland-forest mosaics in the Ganges and Brahmaputra river valleys in the eastern Himalayan foothills are some of world's tallest and most productive .These tall grassland forest mosaics are the last remaining examples of subtropical tall grasslands in the Indian subcontinent, and contain some of the highest densities of tigers, rhinos, and ungulates in Asia. These grasslands mosaic are maintained by a suite of disturbance processes including flooding, fire, and grazing. Manas National Park, a world heritage site and a tiger reserve with an area of 519 sq. km, situated in the North bank landscape of Assam. A socio-political change in the North bank landscape led to a disruption of management practices in the Park. These changes lasted over 15 years, and as a result, fire regimes and grazing practices changed. Wild populations of herbivores and carnivores suffered huge declines due to lack of protection. Coupled with changes in river flow, these changes have led to significant alteration in the grassland community in both local and regional level. Recent observations have shown an increase in the spread of species that are dominant in drier ecosystems, as well as occurrence of tree species in areas previously occupied by grasslands, changing savanna grasslands to woodland.  This dynamism is probably driven by the interacting effects of environmental variation, changing management regimes, human interactions, and ecosystem feedbacks. The system probably experiences fluctuating species composition and wide variation in population dynamics of plant species, but none of this has been clearly documented.

West Africa's most climate change vulnerable species: which, where and why?

W. Foden (Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, Gauteng, South Africa), J. Carr, (IUCN Global Species Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom), E. Belle, (UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Programme, Brussels, Belgium), N. Burgess, (UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
West Africa's most climate change vulnerable species: which, where and why?

W. Foden (1) ; J. Carr, (2) ; E. Belle, (3) ; N. Burgess, (4)
(1) Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Gauteng, South Africa; (2) IUCN Global Species Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (3) UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Programme, Brussels, Belgium; (4) UNEP-World Conservation Monitoring Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Abstract content

West Africa supports globally high levels of species richness and endemism but this exceptional biodiversity is subject to serious ongoing anthropogenic threats, particularly from land transformation and over-exploitation. Climate change is now recognised as a serious emerging threat to biodiversity due both to its direct impacts on species’ health and habitats, and because some human responses are likely to exacerbate historical threats. In order to prepare sound climate change adaptation strategies for West Africa, it’s necessary to understand how biological systems will be impacted. To address this need, we carried out climate change vulnerability assessments for almost all of the region’s terrestrial and freshwater vertebrates, including mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes (2,854 species). Using a trait-based approach, we worked with species experts to identify traits conferring high climate change sensitivity and low adaptive capacity for each taxonomic group, and then scored each species’ degree of possession of these. Species’ exposure to climate change was estimated using regional projections of future climate across their individual distribution ranges. Combining the resulting sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity scores, we categorised each species’ overall climate change vulnerability. This allowed us to identify those facing highest risk from climate change, as well as the regions where such species are concentrated. Comparing the patterns of high climate change vulnerability with those of high threat from non-climate related factors allowed us to identify areas of greatest overall concern for West African species.  By comparing these priorities with current protected area coverage, we highlight areas that are currently unprotected but in great need of protection, as well as the existing protected areas in which adaptation efforts should be prioritised. 

Biodiversity implications of REDD+ policies: assessments in Brazil and in the Congo Basin

R. Mant (UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom), B. Bodin, (UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom), A. Mosnier, (IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria), A. Soterroni (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), F. M. Ramos (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), A. X. Y. Carvalho (IPEA, Brasilia, Brazil), G. Câmara, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil), J. Pirker (IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria), M. Obersteiner (IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria), D. Bokelo, (COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon), R. Ndinga, (COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon), A. Makoudjou, (COMIFAC, Yaoune, Cameroon), P. Tonga, (COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon), V. Kapos (UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Biodiversity implications of REDD+ policies: assessments in Brazil and in the Congo Basin

R. Mant (1) ; B. Bodin, (1) ; A. Mosnier, (2) ; A. Soterroni (3) ; FM. Ramos (3) ; AXY. Carvalho (4) ; G. Câmara, (5) ; J. Pirker (2) ; M. Obersteiner (2) ; D. Bokelo, (6) ; R. Ndinga, (6) ; A. Makoudjou, (7) ; P. Tonga, (6) ; V. Kapos (1)
(1) UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (2) IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria; (3) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (4) IPEA, Brasilia, Brazil; (5) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, Brazil; (6) COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon; (7) COMIFAC, Yaoune, Cameroon

Abstract content

Brazil and the Congo Basin contain the largest remaining areas of tropical rainforest on earth. In both regions, there is interest in implementing policies to mitigate climate change through the Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation plus the conservation, sustainable management and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (REDD+) in order to mitigate climate change. Policies aimed at achieving REDD+ objectives will have major impacts on future land use and resulting land cover, both inside and outside forest areas, which in turn affect biodiversity. Countries in both regions have committed both to supporting the the achievement of the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), including the Aichi Biodiversity Targets in its Strategic Plan, and to addressing and respecting the safeguards developed by the UNFCCC to minimise social and environmental risks and enhance the benefits of REDD+ . Therefore, understanding how different policies may influence land use and biodiversity is essential to informed decision-making and identifying REDD+ policies that can help safeguard biodiversity.

 

We are assessing the potential impacts of REDD+ policies on biodiversity in Brazil and the Congo Basin by using an economic land use model (GLOBIOM), to project future land use and changes in land cover under different scenarios. The biodiversity impact of the different scenarios is then explored by assessing the locations of projected land use change in relation to ecological regions, nationally and regionally identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation and species ranges. The effect of potential differences between ecoregions in land use policies and their application are explored. The impacts on species depend on both their habitat requirements and their distributions relative to different types of land use change.

 

The different assessments of impacts on biodiversity can in combination inform both REDD+ and biodiversity policies. In Brazil, both the implementation, and the  impacts, of the Forest Code differ between Amazonia and other biomes. This therefore has implications for the species living in the different biomes. Analysis of the impacts on threatened species of different assumptions regarding the implementation of the forest code can inform the classification of species threat status. It also allows an assessment of the compatibility of these different scenarios with achievement of Aichi Biodiversity Target 12 on reducing extinction of threatened species. In the Congo Basin two important future scenarios relate to the contribution of protected areas and forest concessions to reducing deforestation. The assessment results highlight that not only is the current network of protected areas unevenly distributed across the different ecological regions, but also the impact of their enforcement on deforestation varies between ecological regions. Expanding the network and strengthening the effectiveness of existing protected areas to support REDD+ objectives would also contribute to achieving Aichi Biodiversity Target 11. 

Scenario analysis of the main drivers forces threatening the conservation of the Tapajós National Forest, Brazilian Amazon

N. Nascimento (National Institute of Spatial Research, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil), L. Martorano, (Embrapa, Belém, Brazil), N. E. S. Beltrão (State University of Pará, Belém, PA, Brazil)

Abstract details
Scenario analysis of the main drivers forces threatening the conservation of the Tapajós National Forest, Brazilian Amazon

N. Nascimento (1) ; L. Martorano, (2) ; NES. Beltrão (3)
(1) National Institute of Spatial Research, Terrestrial system sciences departament, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (2) Embrapa, Agrometeorologia, Belém, Brazil; (3) State University of Pará, Applied Social Sciences, Belém, PA, Brazil

Abstract content

Several public policies were released in an attempt to integrate the Amazon to the other regions of Brazil in the 1960s. Amongst the main engagements on infrastructure, the government built ports, hydroelectric facilities, and opened highways such as the Transamazônica (BR 230), Cuiabá-Santarém (BR 163) and Belem-Brasilia (BR 316), triggering an aggressive process of landscape transformation and deforestation. At the same time, however, the government instituted legally protected areas in the region, such as the Tapajos National Forest (FLONA), in 1974. The road was extended in 2012 and is now part of a regional complex, between two major highways in the region. The Tapajós National Forest suffers influence of the Transamazônica highway (BR-230) in the South, and the Cuiabá- Santarém highway (BR-163) located in its Earsten side, which leads to Santarém and Itaituba. Despite all the pressures generated by its surroundings, the protected area has presented suitable conservation indicators. However, it is noteworthy that the west side of Pará concentrates the greatest number of projects, as the seven hydroelectric power plants, the Cargo Transhipment Stations (ETC), and also the paving of highways BR-163 and BR-230. Thus, the spatiotemporal analysis intends, not only to provide a description of changes over time, but also to point out future trends and identify higher-pressure areas. This study addresses efforts to investigate landscape changes in the Tapajós National Forest and its surroundings, which covers a total area of 19,627 km², including the municipalities of Belterra, Santarém, Aveiro, Rurópolis, and Placas. The literature review supported the selection of change drivers. 

Considering the infrastructure, we selected roads, municipal offices, land tenure (settlements, Conservation Units and Indigenous Lands) and localities. Biophysical elements included climate variables such as rainfall and annual water deficit, altimetry and slope. All variables were crossed with land use data made available by the project TerraClass (INPE) for 2008 and 2010. For each municipality was sought information on crop, livestock and plant extraction through production to subsidize economic data provided by the results of spatial analysis process. Data were spatialized by using the geostatistics analysis, modeling and scenario generation were operated in the DINAMICA software that provided a detailed analysis for each vector element of change in the landscape, in addition to its role in the spatial dynamics of the study area.  

The results showed that amongst the variables used as landscape transformation vectors, the  roads appear to be the main drivers of change in every scenario, which means a change in the forest with different production systems. Taking into account the total area analysed, sites from Rural Settlement present more probability for transitions. The remaining areas with most probability for transitions are those with the lowest declivity values, who use agricultural machinery on the yearly cultivation of soy and corn. The remaining transitions follow the deforestation pattern, known as fishbone, along the Transamazonica highway. Inside the National Forest, the road that connects the São Jorge Community to the Tapajós across the Forest, at the Km 67 on Highway 163, is a major anthropic pressure. The evidence to this fact is that in 2012 this community was no longer under the control of ICMBio. In the map, the yellow and red dots indicate the places with higher chance of changing in the year 2030. According to the map, there are two zones of concern: the South side of FLONA, for the settlements controlled by INCRA (National Institute of Colonization and Agrarian Reform); the West side, where the Santarem-Cuiabá road is being renewed. The South side is a major concern for biological conservation given the intense use of the soil by farmers from the Settlements. The altitude, intense rainfall rates, the areas for settlements, and the predicted scenario for the year 2030 are elements that strengthen the need of Integrated Crop-Livestock-Forestry Systems to relieve the pressure on the south side of the Tapajós National Forest. Based on the results, we conclude that the emancipation of the São Jorge Community entails a further loss in the total area of FLONA for 18 years scenario, therefore leading to a threat for this Conservation Unit. In addition, it is recommended that the ICMBio should have a more strict access control to the Tapajós River.

Inferring the effect of climate change on dispersal-limited species in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest with collection data and targeted field sampling

V. Tarli (Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UPMC EPHE, Paris, France), P. Grandcolas (Muséum National d'Historie Naturelle, CNRS UPMC EPHE, Paris, France), R. Pellens (Muséum National d'Historie Naturelle, CNRS UPMC EPHE, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Inferring the effect of climate change on dispersal-limited species in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest with collection data and targeted field sampling

V. Tarli (1) ; P. Grandcolas (2) ; R. Pellens (2)
(1) Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, CNRS UPMC EPHE, Institut de systématique, evolution, biodiversité, umr 7205 isyeb, Paris, France; (2) Muséum National d'Historie Naturelle, CNRS UPMC EPHE, Institut de systématique, evolution, biodiversité, umr 7205 isyeb, Paris, France

Abstract content

Inferring the effect of global change is especially difficult in tropical biodiversity hotspots. These places shelter a large and poorly known part of the world’s biodiversity, with many species that cannot track environmental changes due to their limited dispersal ability. Tropical hotspots are also submitted to the fastest man-induced environmental changes. Therefore, even strongly targeted field samplings cannot be fast and comprehensive enough to provide knowledge for taking management and conservation decisions. Sampling needs to be completed by data already obtained and accumulated for decades in Museum collections. Better than being simply supplementary, these data are often critically complementary, since they represent the only available information for parts of natural ecosystems that are already largely destroyed, allowing for composing more real models of species requirements and distributions. We carried out a study to understand the effect of climate change on one of the most remarkable hotspots of biodiversity, the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest, fragmented in thousands of remnants, and extending on more than 3000 km from Nordeste to Uruguay. Our goal was to evaluate the ability of dispersal-limited and poorly-known species to survive climate change and also to assess how much collection data from Natural History Museums complement a targeted field sampling. We focused on one model organism, the saprophagous insect genus Monastria Saussure, 1864 (Dictyoptera, Blaberidae) endemic of the whole rainforest hotspot, abundant but still poorly known, dispersal-limited and unable to track climate change.

We conducted a targeted field sampling by visiting 67 locations distributed all over the Atlantic rainforest in geographical and altitudinal extremes and including all forest physiognomies, and by also sampling “secondary” forests and areas with other land uses. This was complemented with specimens from collections from 13 Natural History Museums. We used the Species Distribution Model (SDM) MaxEnt to model present and future potential habitats based on sets of 19 Bioclim climate variables. For current climate, we used the data from 1950-2000 provided by Worldclim.  The habitat modeled with collection data nicely overlaps in 89% that obtained with targeted field sampling. It covered almost the entire range of the 19 climate variables assessed with targeted samples, which shows how useful it can be to consider it.

In order to assess the amount of habitat available for Monastria in future climate we used two climatic models for 2050 and 2070, derived from climate surfaces IPCC – HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 (http://www.worldclim.org, IPCC 2007). For each model applied to pooled data sets, we used two outputs (RCP  4.5 and 8.5), representing roughly a pessimistic and optimistic greenhouse scenario according to CO2 emissions. We already know from previous studies that the Monastria with apterous females is unable to move between remnants of primary forest by using inhospitable matrix (grasslands, diverse plantations) or “secondary” forests where it is never found. We then searched the extent of forest remnants that are capable to host Monastria now and in the projected future climates. Our results point for a critical situation in which a maximum of 4% of the present distribution area will fit Monastria’s habitat requirements in the near future. This calls attention to the need for considering the most frequent case of dispersal-limited species in relation to habitat connectivity when evaluating the potential effect of climate change.

Guiding Agricultural Expansion to Spare Tropical Forests

E. Dinerstein (Resolve, Washington DC, United States of America), A. Baccini (The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole, United States of America), M. Anderson (World Wild Fund, Washington, United States of America), G. Fiske (The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole Research Center, United States of America), E. Wikramanayake (Resolve, Washington DC, United States of America), D. Mclaughlin (World Wild Fund, Washington, United States of America), G. Powell (World Wild Fund, Washington, United States of America), D. Olson (Resolve, Washington DC, United States of America), A. Joshi (University of Minnesota, St. Paul, United States of America)

Abstract details
Guiding Agricultural Expansion to Spare Tropical Forests

E. Dinerstein (1) ; A. Baccini (2) ; M. Anderson (3) ; G. Fiske (4) ; E. Wikramanayake (1) ; D. Mclaughlin (5) ; G. Powell (3) ; D. Olson (1) ; A. Joshi (6)
(1) Resolve, Biodiversity and wildlife solutions program, Washington DC, United States of America; (2) The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole, United States of America; (3) World Wild Fund, Washington, United States of America; (4) The Woods Hole Research Center, Woods Hole Research Center, United States of America; (5) World Wild Fund, Markets program, Washington, United States of America; (6) University of Minnesota, Conservation biology program, St. Paul, United States of America

Abstract content

Expanding commodity crop production in the tropics presents the dual challenge of enhancing food production while preserving tropical moist forests (TMF) ecosystems and the carbon that they store. Over the years, biologists have prioritized biodiversity rich areas and made recommendations on conservation imperatives. Conversely, agricultural imperatives—and especially commodity crops—typically ignore biodiversity and carbon content values when converting new lands for expansion, even though the ecosystem services from the latter are vital to sustain the former. In this analysis we attempt to reconcile biodiversity, carbon storage, and agricultural imperatives by identifying low-carbon density land (LCDL) for large-scale commodity agricultural expansion in the tropical realm.  Thereby protecting important and representative biodiversity while minimize CO2 emissions.  Our rationale is based on the fact that LCDL are essentially degraded TMF that are usually stripped of the high carbon cover and forest-dependent biodiversity. Because degraded TMF can take decades or even centuries to recover and mature, these lands are of limited conservation value relative to intact forests. With techniques now available to improve soil fertility, drainage, and sustainability these degraded forests can be made suitable for agriculture, and provide opportunities to expand the commodity and industrialized agricultural footprint with minimal loss of biodiversity and CO2 emissions

Here, we propose a transparent approach for shifting agricultural expansion away from biodiversity and carbon rich TMF into degraded, low-carbon density lands, defined as lands holding less than 40 metric tons of Above Ground Carbon (AGC)/ha.  Results show about 274 Million ha of low carbon density forests occur in the TMF tropical belt. After applying important safeguards, filtering for areas unsuitable for industrial agriculture, under formal protection, in indigenous reserves, or other biologically sensitive areas, about 125 Million ha are potentially available for tropical agricultural expansion for the next 25-50 years without further destruction of rainforests. About 65 Million ha of this LCDL estate is distributed in contiguous tracts larger than 5,000 ha and lies below 500 meters elevation, meeting the prerequisites for successful commercial-scale oil palm production. Nearly one third of all LCDL occur in Brazil; followed by India, Myanmar, Mozambique, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Democratic Republic of Congo, all holding more than 4 Million ha. The simplicity and transparency of this easily-monitored metric could prove useful to producers, governments, investors, and consumers and enhance good governance in tropical regions.

Climate change impacts on the fisheries in the Himalayan Kingdom of Nepal

M. A. Husen (Nepal Agricultural Research Council, Pokhara, Nepal)

Abstract details
Climate change impacts on the fisheries in the Himalayan Kingdom of Nepal

MA. Husen (1)
(1) Nepal Agricultural Research Council, Agricultural Research Station (Fisheries), Kaski, Pokhara, Nepal, Pokhara, Nepal

Abstract content

Besides land locked country, Nepal is home of more than 200 fish species. The resident of these species are rivers and lakes of this country. Rise of temperature with changes in precipitation have been effecting on the Himalayan river flow rate with un- expected floods and runoff. These increased flow rates have been altering the habitat of fish species. These will be affecting on the diversity of fish species in these river and lakes. The bank of rivers and lakes are known to home of many ethnic fishers and livelihood of these ethnic communities depends on its capture fishery. Thus, vulnerability of fisher community due to climate change is at high risk in this country. Proper adaption measures needed to combat the climate change and its hazards.

Multi-Temporal cover patterns using Landsat TM in the Tapajós National Forest and its surroundings: a case study

L. Lisboa, (ESALQ, Piracicaba, Brazil), C. Vettorazzi, (ESALQ, Piracicaba, Brazil), L. Martorano (s/nº, Belem, Brazil), R. Muniz, (ESALQ, Piracicaba, Brazil), N. E. S. Beltrão (UEPA, Belém, Brazil)

Abstract details
Multi-Temporal cover patterns using Landsat TM in the Tapajós National Forest and its surroundings: a case study

L. Lisboa, (1) ; C. Vettorazzi, (1) ; L. Martorano (2) ; R. Muniz, (1) ; NES. Beltrão (3)
(1) ESALQ, Piracicaba, Brazil; (2) s/nº, Agrometeorology, Belem, Brazil; (3) UEPA, Belém, Brazil

Abstract content

Brazil’s Tapajós National Forest (Flona Tapajós) — a designated Conservation Unit (CU) under the Sustainable Use Group created by Decree No. 73,684 (February 1974) — measures approximately 527,000 hectares (ICMBio, 2012). This CU has undergone constant changes in usage patterns and ground cover, especially in its surroundings, due to activities related to agriculture, livestock and timber harvesting. In June 2012, Federal Law No. 12,678 reduced the area of Tapajós Flona by approximately 4% of its original size. These areas began to be called buffer zones. According to Batista et al. (2013), this reduction may lead to possible threats in the maintenance of goods and services that Flona offers, provoking with the passing of years changes in the livelihoods of surrounding communities, thus increasing pressure on the protected area. Therefore, the aim of this work was to identify and map spatial distribution patterns of use and ground cover after the alterations in the landscape using data from spatio-temporal remote sensing sources. Satellite images from the TM sensor and the Landsat-5, from July and August of 1989, 2005 and 2009 were used. Digital processing was performed: atmospheric correction; geometric correction; mosaic; classification, post-classification and definition of use classes and land cover. We used the Geographic Information System (GIS) ArcGIS v.9.3 to construct thematic maps of the study-case, along with the following procedures: conversion of classified images to vector format for calculating the areas of thematic classes adopted this work; assembly and manipulation of geographic database and map algebra to detect changes between the years studied.In Flona Tapajós and its surroundings, between 1989 and 2005, the areas with Native Forest (NF), Regeneration (R), Recent Deforestation (RD) and Exposed soil (ES) that remained unchanged comprised respectively 62, 3, 2 and 2%. The altered areas (17%) underwent their most drastic changes in areas with NF (9%) and in 2005 were identified as R (2%), RD (3%) and ES (4%), while (2%) areas belonging to class RD had not been removed, reaching stage R 2005. The remaining 6% suffered conversion between ES and RD (Table 1). In the period 2005-2009, the areas with NF, R, RD and ES that remained unchanged comprised 61, 6, 3 and 6% (Table 2) respecitvely. It is noteworthy that 11% belonged to Water bodies in both periods. In the period 1989-2005 there was a 11% reduction in NF areas. In the second period, this reduction was approximately 1%. On the other hand, the area (R) made up only 4.4% in 1989 and grew to 7.6% in 2005, reaching about 11% of the area in 2009.Areas with RD represented 5% in 1989 and 7% in 2005 and 2009, indicating that the "Government Programme Zero Deforestation in the Amazon" shows evidence of consolidation in Flona Tapajós and its surroundings. This fits with the trend in ES, which went from 4% in 1989 to 19% in 2005 and 2009. It is noteworthy that, despite the reduced fragments located within Flona Tapajos, its environment, in particular its buffer zone, underwent a robust process of human disturbance. From the results, we concluded: Between 1989 and 2005 there was a higher percentage of loss patterns in the Native Forest than occurred from 2005 to 2009 and the patterns remained stable; the method of assessment of natural and non-natural landscapes can support the understanding of the observed dynamics of use and coverage. In addition, the assessment provides support for analysis of the effects of fragmentation in this landscape. The spatiotemporal dynamics in Flona Tapajós and its surroundings indicates the importance of legally protected areas for the conservation of goods and services offered by the people as part of the Amazon Forest Strategy. In integration with other information and analysis, these dynamics may uncover possible threats to the maintenance of goods and services that sustain the biodiversity of the region.

Treeline Dynamics with Climate Change in Nepal Himalaya

D. R. Bhuju, (Central Department of Environmental Science, Kathmandu, Nepal), N. P. Gaire (Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Lalitpur, Nepal), P. Rana, (Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Lalitpur, Nepal), U. K. Thapa, (Department of Geography, Environment and Society, Minneapolis, United States of America), S. K. Shah, (Birbal Sahni Institute of Paleobotany, Lucknow, India), M. Koirala, (Central Department of Environmental Science, Kathmandu, Nepal), M. Carrer, (Department of Land and Agro-forest Environment, Padova, Italy), S. Bhandari, (Central Department of Environmental Science, Kathmandu, Nepal), B. Sharma, (GoldenGate International College, Kathmandu, Nepal), A. Shrestha, (Sanima Hydropower Company, Kathmandu, Nepal), R. Ghale, (Karnali Integrated Rural Development and Research Center, Lalitpur, Nepal), Y. R. Dhakal, (Tree Ring Society of Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal)

Abstract details
Treeline Dynamics with Climate Change in Nepal Himalaya

DR. Bhuju, (1) ; NP. Gaire (2) ; P. Rana, (3) ; UK. Thapa, (4) ; SK. Shah, (5) ; M. Koirala, (1) ; M. Carrer, (6) ; S. Bhandari, (1) ; B. Sharma, (7) ; A. Shrestha, (8) ; R. Ghale, (9) ; YR. Dhakal, (10)
(1) Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan university, Kathmandu, Nepal; (2) Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Faculty of Science, Lalitpur, Nepal; (3) Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Faculty of scinece, Lalitpur, Nepal; (4) Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of minnesota, Minneapolis, United States of America; (5) Birbal Sahni Institute of Paleobotany, Lucknow, India; (6) Department of Land and Agro-forest Environment, University of padova, Padova, Italy; (7) GoldenGate International College, Department of environmental science, Kathmandu, Nepal; (8) Sanima Hydropower Company, Environment, Kathmandu, Nepal; (9) Karnali Integrated Rural Development and Research Center, Lalitpur, Nepal; (10) Tree Ring Society of Nepal, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract content

The imprints of climate change impacts have evidently been recorded from the natural habitats of the Himalaya. Available climatic data show a rapid increase in the average annual temperature in Nepal Himalaya compared to other regions. Nepal's rich tree diversity emanating from varied climate within a narrow geography of extreme topographic range (Alt. 60 m to >8000 m asl) provides opportunities for multi aspect tree-ring research. The high altitude climatic treelines are sensitive biomonitors and bioindicators of past and recent climate change and variability as well as warning line to the climatic impacts on high altitude biota and livelihood. Science based empirical studies on the impacts of climate change in high-altitude ecosystems and their components are yet new approach in the Himalaya especially in Nepal.

We carried out a dendro-climatological study at the tree-line ecotones of seven high mountain protected areas of Nepal Himalaya from east to west, namely: Kanchenjungha, Sagarmatha (Everest), Langtang, Manaslu, Annapurna, Rara and Api-Nampa, with an aim to assess the impact of climate change in the tree-lines. Two to three sites were selected in each protected area. Vertical transect plots (10-20 m x 100-250 m wide) were laid down in each treeline site covering different aspects of mountain slopes. In addition to ecological details, more than 1200 tree core samples from major treeline species, viz. Abies spectabilis D. Don, Betula utilis D. Don and Rhododendron campanulatum D. Don were collected. Using the ecological and dendrochronological tools, climatic response on radial growth and regeneration, recruitment and dynamics of the these species were analyzed.

The position of tree-line in the east (Lat. 27.7155 N) was higher (Alt. 4150 m asl) in the west (Alt. 3800 m als; Lat. 29.8750 N). The size parameters such as tree density, basal area, diameter at breast height, height and age decreased with increasing elevation revealing dynamic nature of tree-lines though it presented some spatial heterogeneity. High regeneration of A. spectabilis as compared to B. utilis was observed in most of the sites. The population age structure of these species showed both stand densification as well as upward shifting of tree-line in many sites. The tree core analysis showed that in most sites, B. utilis appeared first which was later displaced by A. spectabilis. High regeneration of A. spectabilis in recent years compared to that of B. utilis indicated that the tree-lines in Nepal Himalaya are changing along with the species composition and dominance.

The upward shift of A. spectabilis was clearly observed, the shifting rate ranged from 1.1 m to 3.6 m per year. An invariant positive correlation among the site chronologies was also noted, indicating that there prevailed some common climatic factors limiting the growth and dynamics of the trees. Tree growth-climate and regeneration-climate relationship showed that warm winter and moist summer favoured the regeneration of A. spectabilis, while pre-monsoon (March-May) climate enhanced the radial growth. Growth of B. utilis in most of the sites was mainly limited by moisture stress during pre-monsoon months just before the main growth period. Population structure and climate growth response indicated that both the species had species specific response to climate change. Hence, a wider difference is anticipated in the population attributes of the species as climate continues to change in the future. These shifting also have implications on the poor mountain people whose livelihood depend on marginal rangeland just above the tree-lines.

 

Land-use/cover changes in the Uttarakhand Himalaya: assessment and mapping

V. P. Sati (Mizoram University, Aizawl, Aizawl, Mizoram, India)

Abstract details
Land-use/cover changes in the Uttarakhand Himalaya: assessment and mapping

VP. Sati (1)
(1) Mizoram University, Aizawl, Geography and Resource Management, Aizawl, Mizoram, India

Abstract content

Land is a dynamic and complex combination of factors – geology, topography, hydrology, soils, microclimate and communities of plants and animals. Land-use stands for the pattern of man’s activity on a piece of land for economic functions and land cover changes denote to the type of feature, changes on the earth’s surface. This paper aims to assess the land-use/cover changes in the Uttarakhand Himalaya. It also examines the factors affecting land-use/cover changes. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches were used for conducting this study. Data were obtained from the primary and secondary sources. A case study of 12 villages (Khanda Gad sub-watershed) was carried out and a household level survey was conducted on land-use/cover changes. Secondary data were gathered from the government records i.e. State Economic and Statistical Directorate, Dehradun. Land-use data from 1980 to 2009 were gathered and land cover changes were assessed through using various statistical methods and mapping. Participatory research appraisal was used to elaborate data through rapid field visit of the region. Farmers, extension workers and officials of various departments related to agriculture, horticulture and forest were interviewed to know the present trend of land-use/cover change. Five categories of land-use such as forestland, uncultivable land comprises; area under non-agriculture and waste land, other uncultivable land comprises; cultivable waste, pasture, and land under nurseries, orchards, trees and bushes; fallow land and net area sown were separately discussed. This study shows that forest covers 61% area followed by sown area (13%). Out of the total area sown, fertile patches of tarai (the plain area comprises Udham Singh Nagar) and Doon valley (comprises by plain area of Dehradun and Pauri districts) occupy above 70% area sown while, the other part of the state, which is known as the mainland of Uttarakhand (comprises 92.6% geographical area) has very less sown area. Other uncultivable land covers 16%, uncultivable land is 8% and fallow land is 2%. Temperate forests – pine, oak and coniferous – constitute forest land-use. In the mainland, the cultivable land is generally found in the valley regions and in the mid-altitudes and it is characterised by the narrow patches of terraced fields. Cultivation of subsistence cereal crops dominates the cropping pattern. Area under cash crops – fruits and vegetable is quite less. The land under cultivable waste, pasture, nurseries, orchards, trees and bushes is also found in the mid-altitudes and the highlands. Land cover changes were assessed. About 1.83% forest land was increased during 1980-2009. In Dehradun District, 10.6% forestland was increased. Meanwhile, area sown was almost stable in the mainland whereas in Dehradun district, about 6.06% area sown was decreased. In a nutshell, changes in all categories of land were noticed from 3.9% in other uncultivable land to 0.9% in area sown. Climate change impact on forest and cropping pattern was noticed. Within forest land-use, area under pine forest was observed increased upto 10% and oak forest cover decreased subsequently. This was occurred mainly due to warming of valleys and mid-altitudes. Similarly, cropping pattern has largely been changed from cultivation of subsistence cereal crops to cultivation of paddy, wheat and cash crops, as the case study shows. The major driving forces of land-use/cover changes were illustrated. State’s conservation measures (Forest Act of 1982), People’s participation (establishment of ‘Van Panchayat) and Chipko movement were observed as the driving forces of increase in forestland. Change in food habits was other driving force that transformed cropping pattern. Even, high population growth rate (about 2%) was registered in the whole Uttarakhand Himalaya, area sown was stabilized. High intensity and frequency in weather induced natural hazards such as cloudburst triggered debris-flow; flashflood, landslide and mass-movement have also changed land-use/cover changes.   

Impacts of Biodiversity Loss in the Carbon Stock and Evapotranspiration Fluxes Regulation in Brazilian Amazon

M. Simões (Embrapa, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), R. Ferraz (Embrapa, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil), M. Equihual (INECOL, Veracruz, Mexico), O. Maqueo (INECOL, Veracruz, Mexico), N. Alaniz (CONABIO, Mexico DF, Mexico), P. Verweij (Wageningen-UR, Wageningen, Netherlands), A. Alvez (Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Abstract details
Impacts of Biodiversity Loss in the Carbon Stock and Evapotranspiration Fluxes Regulation in Brazilian Amazon

M. Simões (1) ; R. Ferraz (2) ; M. Equihual (3) ; O. Maqueo (3) ; N. Alaniz (4) ; P. Verweij (5) ; A. Alvez (6)
(1) Embrapa, Embrapa solos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (2) Embrapa, Embrapa Solos, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; (3) INECOL, Instituto de ecologia a.c, Veracruz, Mexico; (4) CONABIO, Comisión nacional para el conocimiento y uso de la biodiversidad, Mexico DF, Mexico; (5) Wageningen-UR, Alterra, Wageningen, Netherlands; (6) Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Programa de pós-graduação meio ambiente (ppgma), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract content

Biodiversity supports many ecosystem services that are very important for climate change mitigation and adaptation, according to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) there are clear interlinkages between biodiversity and climate changes. There is a functional link between the tropical forest ecosystem biodiversity and their capacity for carbon uptake and storage as well as regulation of evapotranspiration flux. Nevertheless, land use changes and agriculture expansion reduce the ecosystems integrity modifying the functions related directly to the ecosystem services. The relationship between biodiversity loss and the ecosystem services in tropical forests, in face of the ongoing global climate change, has been quite accepted by the scientific community, but needs to be better quantified and understood. The objective of this paper is to present the methodological approach and preliminary results on the impact estimation of land use changes and ecosystem biodiversity loss in carbon stock and evapotranspiration fluxes regulation ecosystem services. In order to fulfill that goal, the carbon stock and evapotranspiration spatial models were correlated with an ecosystem integrity model, used as an indicator of biodiversity loss for the Brazilian Amazon. The methodological approach of this work consists in the generation of an “ecosystem biodiversity loss” spatial model based on probability distribution of evidence parameters (Bayesian theory - Lindley 1972). The modeling was based on learning process (dada-driven model) using the Expectation Maximization algorithm (Buntime 1994). Bayesian network has been established from an expert conceptual model that related different spatial data (Thematic maps and Remote Sensing data): (i) Biomass (MODIS/ USGS – NASA); (ii) EVI; (iii) LAI- Leaf Area Index (MODIS/ USGS – NASA); (iv) Tree Cover (MODIS/ USGS – NASA); (v) GPP- Gross Primary Productivity (MODIS/ USGS – NASA). The carbon stock ecosystem service was estimated from aboveground carbon stocks spatial model developed by Baccini et. al. (2004) within the Pantropical National Level Carbon Stocks Project held by the Woods Hole Research Center – WHRC, Boston University and the University of Maryland (MA, USA). The methodology was based on ground data, MODIS 500m imagery and GLAS LiDAR data. The evapotranspiration fluxes ecosystem service was estimated from MODIS Surface Resistance and Evapotranspiration (MOD 16), data developed by Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group (NTSG), College of Forestry & Conservation - University of Montana (Mu et al., 2007). Preliminary results were promising, allowing the establishment of the probabilistic distribution spatial patterns of biodiversity loss, as well as a preliminary assessment of the relationship with the carbon stocks (aboveground biomass) and evapotranspiration fluxes. This work is part of the ROBIN Project - Role of Biodiversity in Climate Change Mitigation – sponsored  by the European Union (FP7 Edict ENV. 2011.2.1.4 -1: Potential of biodiversity and ecosystems for the mitigation of climate change).

Keywords: Spatial modeling; Bayesian networks; Climate changes: Climate mitigation

Baccini, A., Friedl, M., Woodcock, C. & Warbington, R. Forest biomass estimation over regional scales using multisource data. Geophysical Research Letters 31, L10501 (2004).

Buntime W. Operations for learning with graphical models. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2:159–225, 1994.

Lindley, D. V. (1972). Bayesian Statistics, a Review. Philadelphia, PA: SIAM. [A sharp comprehensive review of the whole subject up to the 1970’s, emphasizing its internal consistency].

Mu, Q., F. A. Heinsch, M. Zhao, and S. W. Running (2007b), Development of a global evapotranspiration algorithm based on MODIS and global meteorology data, Remote Sens. Environ., 111, 519–536, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2007.04.015.

Land Use Change, Desertification and Development Nexus in the Thar Desert Region of Rajasthan, India

N. Varghese (Indira Gandhi National Open University, Delhi, India)

Abstract details
Land Use Change, Desertification and Development Nexus in the Thar Desert Region of Rajasthan, India

N. Varghese (1)
(1) Indira Gandhi National Open University, School of Extension and Development Studies, Delhi, India

Abstract content

Desertification is the persistent degradation of dryland ecosystems due to human activities and variations in climate. Currently, 41 percent of the landmass worldwide is prone to desertification and around two billion people are affected by desertification and degradation of land. The major deserts in the world, particularly in China, Mongolia, Africa and India are expanding at an alarming rate. The expansion of deserts implies lesser availability of land for agriculture and allied activities which provide food and livelihood security to millions of people across the world. The chief drivers of desertification include deforestation, over grazing, over cultivation, logging, pressure of population, industrialization and poor land use practices.

Planning Commission of India has identified 15 resource development regions in the country, also known as the Agro Climatic Zones. Among the various regions, the Western Dry Region covers nine districts of the state of Rajasthan. The huge portion of Rajasthan is desiccated and houses the biggest Indian desert- the Thar Desert. The population in this region has been increasing at a rate faster than national average. This has led to increased pressure on land for food security of the increasing population and fodder security for the livestock. Due to less rainfall, people in this region practice a mixed farming system and livestock forms an integral part of their livelihoods. Some of the districts of this region are also characterised by a livestock density that is even higher than population density. The composition of livestock has also seen a change over the years in this region with the cattle and buffalo population being replaced by small ruminants. This is mainly because of low fodder requirement of the latter as compared to the former. Another important feature of this region which is also important as one of the drivers of desertification is the source of irrigation. In most of the districts of this region more than 80 percent of the irrigation and in some districts even upto 100 percent of the irrigation is done by wells and tube wells. This has important implication from the view point of desertification and sustainable agricultural practices considering the already low levels of ground water in the desert regions. The forest cover in these nine districts is showing a declining trend owing to the land being diverted to cultivation. Besides forests, the area under other land uses is also being diverted to cultivation. This can have serious implications on sustainability of the livelihoods and extent of poverty of the people in these districts. This in turn has implications on the health and other human development indicators. In this paper, the author has used Markov Chain analysis to see the direction of change in the land use pattern in the districts covered under the Western Dry Region. It was observed that among the various land use patterns, there was a high probability of the land under forest being diverted to cultivation. This could have serious implications in terms of desertification as all the nine districts covered under the Western Dry Region of Rajasthan are already very low in terms of forest area. The author has also examined the linkages between various human development indicators of these districts in light of the changing land use pattern in the districts. For this purpose, using various development and desertification indicators, respective indices were worked out for the nine districts. The districts were then ranked on the basis of both the indices and it was observed that there was a negative correlation between development and desertification. The districts which were relatively better off in terms of development indicators were incidentally the districts having worst desertification indicators. A negative correlation was observed between development and desertification. This leads to a very important question that is development being done at a cost? In light of the various findings of this study the author has also suggested policy prescriptions for arresting desertification in the Thar Desert Region of Rajasthan.

A Cascade Modeling Approach to the Assessment of Climate Induced Land Use Change

A. Lungarska (INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France), P.-A. Jayet, (INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France)

Abstract details
A Cascade Modeling Approach to the Assessment of Climate Induced Land Use Change

A. Lungarska (1) ; PA. Jayet, (1)
(1) INRA, Economie Publique, Thiverval-Grignon, France

Abstract content

Land use and land use change are inherently related to climate change (Pielke, 2005). Furthermore, they are interconnected as each one is influencing the other. In this study we assess the effects of climate change on human activities, namely agriculture and forestry, and the resulting land use change for France. Our modeling approach combines sector-specific mathematical programming models and statistical tools in a multistage algorithm. As a first step, the effects of climate on agriculture and forestry are captured through a generic crop model (STICS, Brisson et al., 2009) and a statistical model of tree growth and mortality. The results obtained are then used in the second modeling stage. They are exploited as parameters in economic models for the two sectors: the agricultural supply-side model AROPAj (Galko & Jayet, 2011) and the partial equilibrium model of French forestry, FFSM++ (Caurla et al., 2013). These two models allow us to evaluate the potential gains for their corresponding sectors. The final, third, step of our modeling approach consists in an econometric (statistical) land use model where agricultural and forestry rents are approximated by the results from the sector-specific models. Thus, we can estimate land use shares of five major categories: (i) agriculture, (ii) forestry, (iii) urban, (iv) pastures, and (v) other; at the scale of a homogeneous grid with resolution of 8 km x 8 km covering metropolitan France for the period 2000 – 2100. The major advantage of our modeling approach is that it accounts for variation in biological productivity due to climate change and at the same time it can test different socioeconomic scenarios such as new price vectors, management practices and public policies.

 

References:

 

Brisson, N., Launay, M., Mary, B., & Beaudoin, N. (2009). Conceptual Basis, Formalisations and Parameterization of the Stics Crop Model. QUAE.

 

Caurla, S., Delacote, P., Lecocq, F., Barthès, J. and Barkaoui, A. (2013). Combining an inter-sectoral carbon tax with sectoral mitigation policies: Impacts on the french forest sector. Journal of Forest Economics 19: 450–461.

 

Galko, E. and Jayet, P.-A. (2011). Economic and environmental effects of decoupled agricultural support in the EU. Agricultural Economics 42: 605–618.

 

Pielke, R. A. Sr (2005). Land use and climate change. Science, 310, 1625–1626.

Significant Contribution of Oil and Gas Industries in Temperature increasing in Northern Coast of the Persian Gulf

H. Moradi (Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran), A. A. Malekizadeh ( Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran)

Abstract details
Significant Contribution of Oil and Gas Industries in Temperature increasing in Northern Coast of the Persian Gulf

H. Moradi (1) ; AA. Malekizadeh (2)
(1) Isfahan University of Technology, Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) Isfahan University of Technology, Department of natural resources, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract content

Pars Special Economic Energy Zone (PSEEZ) was established in ‎‏1998‏‎ for the utilization of South ‎Pars oil and gas resources.‎ The gas resources of PSEEZ is about 9% of all gas reservoirs explored in the world. Since 2002, the operation at the PSEEZ is active. It is planned that the PSEEZ will have about 28 phases of refineries and petrochemical plants. Before coming oil and gas activities to the region, there was a unique landscape as mangrove forests, muddy coasts, wetlands, rangelands, farm lands, etc. Although all the phases are not operating but the landscape totally has been changed. Usually, the industrial activities causes an increasing in the local temperature directly (e.g. stacks and flares) or indirectly (landuse/cover changes). In this paper, we studied the landuse/cover changes as well as the changed in local temperature from 1998 to 2013. To do this, we used the Landsat5 ™ and Landsat8 (OLI) satellite images between May 1998 (Before construction started) and May 2013 (after 10 years operation). We made the temperature maps from Infrared thermal bands (i.e. TM 6 and OLI 10). Our results showed that a 100% increase in industrial zones and flares areas, a decrease of 34.11ha in mangroves cover (mostly in Basatin Bay), and a decrease of 12864 ha in natural rangelands (mostly in mountain-side looking to industrial zones) are the major changes. However, the wastewater releases from Phases 9 and 10 could be a reason to destroy the mangroves. Marine watercourses in our study area have been decreased by 1761.7 ha where 1509 ha has been changed to bare lands and 119 ha to industrial zones. This decrease is because of filling the shallow waters and drying the Mohr River. Moreover, the wet lands have changed from 6683 ha in 1998 to 418 ha in 2013. Comparing the landuse/cover changes with the temperature map revealed a positive correlation. The results showed that the mean temperature increase by 2.86 C from May 1998 to May 2013. The findings showed that temperature ranges are different in two dates where in 1998 is between 24C-55C and for 2013 is between 25C-61C. Moreover, in 1998, temperature class 26C had covered the most area of the studied area by 34224 ha where this has decreased to 24416 ha in 2013. In 1998, in overall, only 7400 ha had the temperature lower than 26C but in 2013 only 5 ha. In 1998, the area of the temperature class 37-44C was 58366 ha which is decreased to 18852 ha in 2013. The area of temperature class of 45C-49C I this time period did not changed and was about 60000ha. Therefore, the major changes in area of temperature class happened in 50C-55C which increased from 10569ha in 1998 to 56760 ha in 2013. In 1998, the latest temperature which is observed in the study area is 55C with 25 ha but in 2013 we observed a new class of temperature 55C-61C with 3824 ha. If we have a closer look at the landuse/cover changes map and temperature map, we could found that changing the shallow waters to bare and industrial lands caused an increase of about 17C in the filled areas. Moreover, making dry the wet lands for industrial lands has been caused an increase of about 5C to 6C where this increase because of the Mohr River is about 14C. Our results revealed that although the industrial development and its activities has a direct impacts on local temperature but the landuse/cover changes coming by the development has also a major impacts.  

The Changes of Crop Distribution and its Water Balance Effects in the West Liaohe River basin, China

Y. Yang (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China), L. Yang (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
The Changes of Crop Distribution and its Water Balance Effects in the West Liaohe River basin, China

Y. Yang (1) ; L. Yang (1)
(1) Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, China

Abstract content

As one of the origins of dry farming in North China, West Liaohe River Basin is located in the districts with high production of maize, which is the main producing area in China and the important commodity grain base. As a sensitive area of global change, West Liaohe River basin is located in the eastern agriculture and animal husbandry edge of the western of Northeast Plain, which showed an obvious warming trend and frequent drought in the recent years. Due to the increase of population, water resources development and utilization activities is increased, and the land desertification, vegetation degradation problems are becoming serious by the interaction of human activity and climate change. This study taking the West Liaohe River basin as a case study area, analyzing of the crops distribution changes and spatial agglomeration situation in 2000, 2005 and 2010, using remote sensing tools and GIS technology. On this base, using the water balance model, quantitatively calculate the different periods of the water balance of the different crop types based on GIS technology and mathematical statistics in the West Liaohe River basin, And then systematically evaluated the water balance effects of crop distribution variations from 2000 to 2010, and scenario simulated the water balance effects of crop layout changes in different climate conditions, by establishing the water balance response statistics model. The study indicates that, (1) Water resources pressure substantially reduced from 2000 to 2005, by 26.71hundred million m3. And increased slowly from 2005 to 2010, by 5.50 hundred million m3. (2) The actual irrigation increase 14.31 hundred million m3, accounting for 26.81% of available water in the West Liaohe River basin from 2000 to 2005, influenced by the main crops area increased substantially. And water resources pressure continue to rise, the actual irrigation increase 0.88 hundred million m3 in the West Liaohe River basin from 2005 to 2010, influenced by the main crops area increased slowly. (3) The pressure of water resources was enhanced significantly in the West Liaohe River basin under different climatic conditions (normal year and dry year), the actual water demand for irrigation were respectively 12.94 hundred million m3 and 16.43 hundred million m3, there was serious contradiction between the water resources supply and demand. (4) Adjusting crop planting structure, developing water-saving agriculture and improving the utilization efficiency of water resources would become the main route of agricultural sustainable development in the West Liaohe River basin. 

Addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation together: A global assessment of agriculture and forestry projects

R. Kongsager (UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark), B. Locatelli (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Lima, Peru), F. Chazarin (Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Lima, Peru)

Abstract details
Addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation together: A global assessment of agriculture and forestry projects

R. Kongsager (1) ; B. Locatelli (2) ; F. Chazarin (2)
(1) UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark; (2) Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Lima, Peru

Abstract content

Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed whether climate change projects in forestry and agriculture integrated adaptation and mitigation, by analyzing 201 projects from adaptation funds (e.g., UNFCCC Adaptation Fund), adaptation plans (e.g., National Adaptation Programmes of Action), mitigation instruments (e.g., Clean Development Mechanism), and project standards (e.g., Climate Community & Biodiversity (CCB)). We analyzed whether projects established for one goal contributed explicitly to the other (i.e., whether mitigation projects contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether their activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the project documents explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation projects could potentially contribute at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

Understanding complex networks, trade-offs and synergies within the science-policy domain for land-based climate mitigation

R. Berman (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom), M. D. Rounsevell (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Understanding complex networks, trade-offs and synergies within the science-policy domain for land-based climate mitigation

R. Berman (1) ; MD. Rounsevell (2)
(1) University of Edinburgh, School of Geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (2) University of Edinburgh, School of geographical sciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The agriculture, forestry and other land use sector (AFOLU) is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Mitigation within this sector, as well as the interplay between mitigation and adaptation, are crucial therefore in efforts to address climate change. The highly complex institutional structures of global climate policy and the ‘wickedness’ of the climate change problem lead to trade-offs and synergies, or overlaps and gaps, across land-based mitigation and adaptation policy. Hence there is a need to investigate and examine the mechanisms surrounding the policy environment. Many scientific studies on mitigation and adaptation claim important policy implications from their findings. Whilst a time-lag between the scientific understanding on both direct and indirect trade-offs and synergies within climate adaptation and (land-based) mitigation and policy may be expected, other gaps within the policy arena are likely to exist.

We map these complex policy and scientific arenas through a content analysis of the global scientific knowledge of climate change (from peer-reviewed literature) and of global policy approaches (using International Environmental Agreements). Overlaps and synergies between relevant topics and sectors that exist across different policy and science themes are identified and analysed through a network analysis approach. This approach enables not only the identification of key topics within the scientific and policy documents, but also the degree of overlap between these topics.

This presentation summarises the findings of a series of research questions which have sought to unpack the complex networks between science and policy, but also within global climate policy itself. These include:

- What are the key trade-offs and synergies within global land-based climate policy?

- How has the science-policy relationship changed historically?

- Is there a current mis-match between the global scientific understanding of land-based mitigation and adaptation and global climate policy?

By mapping the current policy network, we show that opportunities for policies to have triple-wins, supporting adaptation, mitigation and sector specific development. Furthermore, we identify gaps within the political environment to which future policy decisions should seek to contribute in order to deliver resource-efficient, land-based mitigation. Comparing the political network to the mapped network of current scientific understanding, we identify key trade-offs that policy needs to account for, and explore how this has varied over time. 

Avoided Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a Land Surface Model (CLM) with an Economic Model (iPETS)

X. Ren (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, France), M. Weitzel (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America), B. O'neill (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America), P. Meiyappan, (University of Illinois, Champaign, United States of America), S. Levis, (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America), E. Balistreri, (School of Mines, Golden, United States of America), M. Dalton (NOAA, Seattle, United States of America)

Abstract details
Avoided Economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a Land Surface Model (CLM) with an Economic Model (iPETS)

X. Ren (1) ; M. Weitzel (2) ; B. O'neill (3) ; P. Meiyappan, (4) ; S. Levis, (2) ; E. Balistreri, (5) ; M. Dalton (6)
(1) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, France; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (3) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America; (4) University of Illinois, Champaign, United States of America; (5) School of Mines, Golden, United States of America; (6) NOAA, Seattle, United States of America

Abstract content

Agricultural systems not only provide food but also are an important part of the economy for many countries. Crop yields are highly dependent on the level and variation of temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration and extreme events, including heat waves, droughts, and storms, and are therefore vulnerable to the effects of climate change. We will assess the impacts of climate change under two different climate projections (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) and two different socioeconomic pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) in order to quantify the reduction in impacts on agricultural systems as climate change is reduced, and the dependence of this reduction on the socioeconomic development pathway that is assumed.

Previous studies have investigated climate effects on crop yield as well as implications for agricultural markets, prices, land use, and food security. Regarding the climate effect on yield, studies tend to take two different approaches: process-based crop models (e.g., Yao et al., 2007; Moriondo et al. 2011) or statistical relationships between climate variables and yields (e.g., Lobell et al, 2011; Schlenker and Lobell, 2010). Both approaches show that climate change can have positive or negative impacts on different crop types at different locations and over time. Studies that go beyond impacts on crop yields to investigate effects on agricultural markets (e.g., Nelson et al., 2011) also show that there can be agricultural winners and losers, especially over the next few decades, while over time if the degree of climate change worsens then impacts turn more uniformly negative.  Recently, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) published a set of studies (Agricultural Economics, vol. 45(1)) examining the effect of climate change relative to a no-climate-impact baseline. Fewer studies have evaluated the benefits of mitigation on agricultural system, i.e., avoided impacts.

In this study, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, a global integrated assessment model for projecting future energy use, land use, and emissions, will be used in conjunction with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), and particularly with the Community Land Model (CLM), to evaluate the consequences of reducing climate change from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. The analysis will be global, with results in iPETS produced at the level of nine world regions, and will span the period 2005-2100. We will employ climate impacts on crop yield calculated with CLM, driven by CESM simulations of these two RCPs from the CMIP5 database. These yield effects will be applied within the iPETS model, imposed on baseline (no climate) scenarios for SSP3 and SSP5. These baseline scenarios will be produced in iPETS by tuning to existing IAM simulations for these scenarios. CLM-based estimates of arable land and yield effects on productivity will be aggregated from the grid cell level to the level of the aggregate economic regions in iPETS, and applied to the respective parameters in the model. By comparing the outcomes from two alternative scenarios, we are able to evaluate the avoided impacts of climate change due to climate effects on agricultural systems. We will measure impacts in terms of yield, food prices, consumption, and GDP.

 

Disturbance climate in Eastern of Democratic Republic of the Congo

M. Kasangala Junior (National Institute of Agronomic Studies and Climate Research, Uvira, South-Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo), M. N. Mugeruza (Higher Technical Institute of Development, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo)

Abstract details
Disturbance climate in Eastern of Democratic Republic of the Congo

M. Kasangala Junior (1) ; MN. Mugeruza (2)
(1) National Institute of Agronomic Studies and Climate Research, Geography, Uvira, South-Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo; (2) Higher Technical Institute of Development, Geography, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo

Abstract content

     In DR Congo , in  South – Kivu province , specifically in the territory of Uvira, Fizi ,         

     Mwenga and Shabunda , the influx of Rwandan and Burundian refugees in 1992 and 1994

And the population displacement caused by war 1996 and 1998 were at the base of the massive felling of trees in the forests therein and practice of bushfire.

These trees were felled every day to serve as firewood, construction and service to millions of people and bushfire to easily obtain cultivable extended to capture wild animals and pastoral aims.

Naturally, this region comprises 5 ecological zones which are the coastal plain, the tray means, the highlands and woodland.

The region also has two climatic seasons including the rainy season which extends from September to June and the dry season which lasts 2 months, all the months of July and August of each year.

The environment in this part has been degraded due to massive deforestation and practice bushfire.

These two negative factors were the basis for the deterioration of the climate in this part of country.

These massive cuts uncontrolled wood and unquantified and bushfire caused few years later in 2006 and 2007 climate change ever experienced in the region.

This climate change has led to a disruption of the agricultural calendar and a sharp increase in heat.

Crop period would normally start with the beginning of the rainy season in September was postponed in December or January.

The rain was almost rare throughout the region during this period, and once she fell here and there on bare soil where water carried everything in their path   .

The flow of many rivers has decreased significantly ways and most of the rivers had dried completely. A kind of temporary drought is established.

It was suffocating for lack of water everywhere.

Meteorological services of the country gave each time the alert climate of the region where the temperature still ranged between 30 and 35 ° signal

Many people have fallen ill and many children died of this climate change.

Many wild and domestic animals perished.

The plant diseases have been developed, particularly called cassava mosaic disease appeared.

This disease has made cassava much less productive while cassava is the staple food most consumed in the middle.

The plants were dried by lack of water.

Famine is installed around the region. Communities of people, groups of people moved themselves further into the forest in search of more productive and reassuring for survival places.

Alarm calls initiated by local leaders , civil society and development organizations on the climatic disturbance in that region has allowed political authorities - administrative and non - governmental organizations of development to get involved to stop all this ecological and climatic catastrophe.

To this effect, the following measures were taken:

- Formal prohibition massive cutting wood

- Priority Reforestation of denuded areas

- Cutting wood on authorization by the competent authorities

- Prohibition of bushfire

- Education and community awareness about the dangers of mass slaughter of trees and the practice of bush fire and their impact on climate change.

Seven years later, despite the efforts, the situation has not yet returned to normal.

Global assessment of the biophysical climate impacts of deforestation

A. Cescatti (Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy), R. Alkama (Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy)

Abstract details
Global assessment of the biophysical climate impacts of deforestation

A. Cescatti (1) ; R. Alkama (1)
(1) Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Risk Management, Ispra, Italy

Abstract content

Deforestation impacts climate in two major ways: affecting the atmospheric CO2 concentration and modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water vapor. Given the important role of forests in the global carbon cycle, climate treaties account for land-based mitigation options like afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation or forest degradation. On the contrary, predicted climate impacts of biophysical processes, such as the exchange of energy and water vapor, are still uncertain in sign and magnitude, and therefore have not been considered in climate negotiations to date. Direct observations of the biophysical climate effects of forest losses and gains are therefore required to constrain model predictions, reduce the uncertainty of model ensembles, and provide robust recommendations to climate policy.

In this work we report an observation-driven global analysis of the biophysical impacts of forest losses and gains on the local climate, based on a combination of Earth observations of forest cover, surface radiometric temperatures and in-situ air temperatures. Our results document that deforestation causes local changes in air temperature that varies in sign and magnitude according to the climate zone. In addition, forest losses affect the local climate also by altering the diurnal and annual temperature variation at all latitudes. These experimental evidences provide a global and robust quantification of the local climate sensitivities to deforestation and a novel assessment of the mitigation potentials of forests on the diurnal and seasonal temperature variations. Overall, the observation-driven, global quantification of the biophysical signal of deforestation provided in this study may support the inclusion of land biophysics in climate negotiations and the definition of novel protocols for the measurement, reporting, and verification of these relevant effects.

 

[Note: This contribution is aimed at the session "Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system”; conveners Arneth/Stehfest/Popp]

 

Implications of bioenergy production under various future land system pathways

F. Humpenoeder (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), A. Popp (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), A. Biewald (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), B. Bodirsky (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), J. Dietrich (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), D. Klein (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), U. Kreidenweiß (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), H. Lotze-Campen (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), C. Müller (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), S. Rolinski (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), M. Stevanovic (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), I. Weindl (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Implications of bioenergy production under various future land system pathways

F. Humpenoeder (1) ; A. Popp (1) ; A. Biewald (1) ; B. Bodirsky (1) ; J. Dietrich (1) ; D. Klein (1) ; U. Kreidenweiß (1) ; H. Lotze-Campen (1) ; C. Müller (1) ; S. Rolinski (1) ; M. Stevanovic (1) ; I. Weindl (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Abstract for parallel session 18: Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system; conveners Arneth/Stehfest/Popp


 

Bioenergy use in the energy sector, particularly in combination with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), plays a key role for reaching ambitious climate targets. But the large-scale production of bioenergy, which potentially requires considerable amounts of fertile land and water (Bonsch et al., 2014, GCB Bioenergy), can have side effects on land-use dynamics, land-related GHG emissions and food prices. For instance, CO2 emissions from deforestation associated with bioenergy production could lower the mitigation effect of bioenergy use in the energy sector (Popp et al., 2012, Ecol Econ). However, avoiding land use change and associated CO2 emissions due to bioenergy production could result in higher prices for food (Popp et al., 2011, Environ Res Lett) and also bioenergy (Klein et al., 2014, Environ Res Lett). There is a huge body of literature on bioenergy potentials and trade-offs with climate protection, sustainability and food security goals (Creutzig et al., 2014, GCB Bioenergy). However, most of these publications focus on single aspects, while a comprehensive and consistent analysis taking into account various uncertainties of future land system pathways, such as future food demand, development of agricultural yields, and availability of land for agricultural expansion, is still missing.

In this study, we analyze the implications of bioenergy production under various future land system pathways with the global spatially explicit land-use optimization model MAgPIE. Our general scenario setup is based on SSP2 (O’Neill et al., 2015, Glob Environ Chang) and includes global bioenergy demand (2nd generation) that increases linearly to 300 EJ by 2100. We assess the global medium to long-term implications of bioenergy production in terms of land-use dynamics, associated GHG emissions, and bioenergy and food prices. How these environmental and socio-economic indicators evolve under bioenergy production throughout the 21st century depends on key characteristics of the future land system. We test the sensitivity of these indicators to the following land system parameters that directly or indirectly affect bioenergy production: future bioenergy yields (irrigation, feedstock availability), pricing of land-related GHG emissions, forest protection, trade liberalization, future food demand, and productivity increases in the agricultural sector. Finally, we identify trade-offs and synergies related to bioenergy production along the analyzed future land system pathways.

Our results show, for instance, that GHG emission pricing strongly reduces deforestation related to bioenergy production. Consistently, CO2 emissions from land-use change are lower under GHG emission pricing. However, bioenergy as well as food prices considerably increase with GHG emission pricing due to competition for land. Thus, there is a trade-off between land-based mitigation via bioenergy and food security: low CO2 emissions from land-use change coincide with high food prices, while high CO2 emissions from land-use change coincide with low food prices.

Urban Land Use Change Effects on Coastal Forest Ecosystem: A Case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

A. Masanja (Institute for Environment and Development Studies, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of)

Abstract details
Urban Land Use Change Effects on Coastal Forest Ecosystem: A Case of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

A. Masanja (1)
(1) Institute for Environment and Development Studies, Environment, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, United Republic of

Abstract content

This study assessed the impacts of coastal urban land use changes and climate change on coastal forests. The study analyzed the impacts of climate change on coastal livelihoods and their implication on coastal forest degradation; the impacts of coastal urban and peri-urban expansion on coastal forest ecosystems; examined existing strategies in addressing coastal forest degradation; and developed strategies for integrated coastal urban and peri-urban land use plans in support of climate change adaptation and coastal forest conservation.

The study applied the Geographical Information System (GIS) to map the changes of land use in Peri Urban Areas of Dar es Salaam, a participatory rural appraisal using questionnaires and key interviews was applied to assess the impacts of land use changes on coastal forest ecosystem surrounding communities particularly impacts on coastal livelihoods.

The study found that change in land cover from vegetation to residential buildings and paved land surfaces due to urban land use alters completely the functional properties of land including its ecosystem services that exists before changing the land use. In addition to the impacts of land use change due to urban development, the growing urban population is directly linked to the surrounding as well as distant forest ecosystem services. The shift in livelihoods of communities from coastal to forest based activities due to impact of climate change on coastal environmental services exacerbates stress on coastal forests. Continued pressure of urban and peri-urban growth and livelihood activities on coastal forests contributes to coastal deforestation and forest degradation.

This study concludes that land use changes in settlements that surround ecosystems have caused changes in ecosystem services. However, change in land uses is highly caused by population growth because when one more person enters a new area, creates demand of an area for shelter and an area for performing activities for livelihood. This agrees with the human ecology theory of succession and invasion. When there is population influx in areas surrounding an ecosystem, such an ecosystem is subject to high pressure of degradation. Therefore, unguided land use development has adverse effects to the ecosystem services. Dar es Salaam watershed ecosystems which were once a home for millions of various biodiversity species have been affected by land use/cover changes in surrounding urban and peri urban areas. The study recommended for an integrated ecosystem approach to mitigate the impacts of land use change on forest ecosystem.
 

Carbon emission from land-use change is substantially enhanced by agricultural management

A. Arneth (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), T. A. M. Pugh (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), S. Olin, (Lund University, Lund, Sweden), A. Ahlström, (Lund University, Lund, Sweden), A. Arvanitis, (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), A. Bayer, (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), G. K. Klein (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), M. Lindeskog, (Lund University, Lund, Sweden), G. Schurgers, (University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark)

Abstract details
Carbon emission from land-use change is substantially enhanced by agricultural management

A. Arneth (1) ; TAM. Pugh (1) ; S. Olin, (2) ; A. Ahlström, (2) ; A. Arvanitis, (1) ; A. Bayer, (1) ; GK. Klein (3) ; M. Lindeskog, (2) ; G. Schurgers, (4)
(1) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Imk-ifu, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (2) Lund University, Lund, Sweden; (3) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (4) University of Copenhagen, Department of geosciences and natural resource management, Copenhagen, Denmark

Abstract content

It is over three decades since a large terrestrial carbon sink was first reported. The magnitude of the net sink is relatively well known, and its importance for dampening atmospheric CO2 accumulation, and hence climate change, widely recognised. But the contributions of underlying processes are not well defined, particularly the role of emissions from land-use change (ELUC) versus the biospheric carbon uptake (SL). In the absence of appropriate global-scale observations, process-based terrestrial biosphere models can facilitate understanding of present-day carbon cycling, whilst also underpinning climate projections in Earth System Models (ESMs). Yet representations of many fundamental processes in these models are neglected or immature, especially regarding land management. Here we quantify the effect of representing agricultural land management in a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Accounting for harvest, grazing and tillage resulted in cumulative ELUC since 1850 ca. 70% larger than in simulations ignoring these processes. The vast majority of ESMs in the recent IPCC Fifth Assessment Report omit these processes, suggesting an overestimation in their terrestrial carbon sink, or an underestimation of SL, of up to 1.0 Pg C a-1. Management processes influencing crop productivity per se are important for food supply, but had little influence on ELUC.

Quantifying the relative importance of land cover change from climate and land-use in the representative concentration pathways

T. Davies-Barnard (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), P. Valdes (University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom), A. Wiltshire (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), C. Jones (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), J. Singarayer (University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Quantifying the relative importance of land cover change from climate and land-use in the representative concentration pathways

T. Davies-Barnard (1) ; P. Valdes (2) ; A. Wiltshire (3) ; C. Jones (3) ; J. Singarayer (4)
(1) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; (2) University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; (3) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; (4) University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Climate change is projected to cause substantial alterations in vegetation distribution, but these have been given little attention in comparison to land-use in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here we assess the climate-induced land cover changes (CILCC) in the RCPs, and compare them to land-use land cover change (LULCC). To do this, we use an ensemble of simulations with and without LULCC in earth system model HadGEM2-ES for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We find that climate change causes an expansion poleward of vegetation that affects more land area than LULCC in all of the RCPs considered here. The terrestrial carbon changes from CILCC are also larger than for LULCC. When considering only forest, the LULCC is larger, but the CILCC is highly variable with the overall radiative forcing of the scenario. The CILCC forest increase compensates 90% of the global anthropogenic deforestation by 2100 in RCP8.5, but just 3% in RCP2.6. Overall, bigger land cover changes tend to originate from LULCC in the shorter term or lower radiative forcing scenarios, and from CILCC in the longer term and higher radiative forcing scenarios. The extent to which CILCC could compensate for LULCC raises difficult questions regarding global forest and biodiversity offsetting, especially at different timescales. This research shows the importance of considering the relative size of CILCC to LULCC, especially with regard to the ecological effects of the different RCPs.

Legacy effects of repeated land-use changes in the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model

A. Krause (KIT, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), A. Arneth (KIT, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), A. Bayer, (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), M. Lindeskog, (Lund University, Lund, Sweden), T. A. M. Pugh (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany)

Abstract details
Legacy effects of repeated land-use changes in the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model

A. Krause (1) ; A. Arneth (2) ; A. Bayer, (3) ; M. Lindeskog, (4) ; TAM. Pugh (3)
(1) KIT, Imk-ifu, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (2) KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (3) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Imk-ifu, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (4) Lund University, Lund, Sweden

Abstract content

This contribution is aimed at the session "Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system”- conveners Arneth/Stehfest/Popp.

Natural terrestrial ecosystems store large amounts of carbon in living biomass and soils. During the last centuries, wood harvest and deforestation of primary forests for pastures and croplands greatly altered carbon, water and nutrient cycles and thereby also affected secondary vegetation dynamics after the cessation of agriculture. Historically most terrestrial biosphere models have only accounted for net changes in land-use aggregated at coarse scales of 0.5° or more. However, the extent to which finer-scale details of land-use change dynamics, particularly the detailed land-use history of a site, influence ecosystem and carbon dynamics is not well understood. In this study we investigate the legacy effects of repeated land cover transitions between natural vegetation, pastures, croplands and managed forests over different time intervals in the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model. We identify the extent to which land-use transitions are reversible, and quantify lags in system response, finding that these results are strongly dependent on the land-use history. Implications for regional and global scale estimates of land-use change emissions and the feasibility of reforestation projects to sequester carbon are discussed.

Spatial and temporal variabilities of land uses as affected by global change: a focus on Mediterranean agriculture

C. Giupponi (Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venezia, Italy), V. Mojtahed (Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venezia, Italy)

Abstract details
Spatial and temporal variabilities of land uses as affected by global change: a focus on Mediterranean agriculture

C. Giupponi (1) ; V. Mojtahed (1)
(1) Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice Centre for Climate Studies, Venezia, Italy

Abstract content

At the global level, climate and socio-economic changes determine the patterns of the allocation and trade of resources in all markets. Top-Down computable general equilibrium  (CGE) models, using only economics factors of production (capital and labour mostly) and ignoring natural resources constraints, look at the effects of global trends and generate trajectories of socio-economic indicators, such as prices of commodities in the global markets, volumes of trades, gross products per country and sectors. Those models are commonly used to analyse the evolution of global economies, under the pressure of climate change drivers, but their approach impose substantial simplifications in terms of spatial aggregation and limited consideration of temporal variabilities.

When considering adaptation of social and ecological systems to climate change, their inherent complexity and non-linearity and spatial and temporal variabilities put the usefulness of consolidated CGE approaches under question. As a consequence, other methodological approaches are explored, and in particular more and more scholars adopt a Bottom-Up approach, which utilises agent-based models (ABM). ABM’s embrace a much finer spatio-temporal detail, in particular,  with the ambition to analyse the behavioural diversity of agents, as a consequence of their diverse interactions with the surrounding environment and their bounded perceptions of the changing world.

This work explores the potential for integration of the two approaches, with ABM models being used to simulate land use change dynamics, with consideration of spatial (i.e. territorial) and temporal (i.e. climatic extremes and economic shocks) variabilities, driven by CGE models providing the macro-economic trends under the effects of global change scenarios.

We focus on how global change may affect land-use allocation at the regional level, under the influence of limited natural resources, land and water in particular. We specifically explore how constrains and competition for natural resources may induce non-linearities and discontinuities in agro-ecosystems behaviour.

With the purpose to develop an approach that could be implemented worldwide as a means for zooming down from the global to the regional scale, an ABM prototype was developed and run with readily available global databases in three [VM1] test areas around the Mediterranean Basin, in agricultural regions of Morocco, Italy and Spain[VM2] . Starting with extremely simplified and averaged settings; we sequentially introduce the available information about spatial and temporal variability and simulate the dynamics of water and land-use allocations and their consequences on economic performances. The coherency of the outcomes of ABM simulations with the macro trends provided by the CGE model is discussed in view of possible further developments in terms of improved integrated multi-scale simulation of global change scenarios and economic development.

Low Emission Development Strategies in Agriculture. An Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) Perspective

A. De Pinto (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America), A. Haruna, (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America), M. Li (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America), G. Hyman (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia), H.-Y. Kwon (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America), J. Tapasco (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia)

Abstract details
Low Emission Development Strategies in Agriculture. An Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) Perspective

A. De Pinto (1) ; A. Haruna, (1) ; M. Li (2) ; G. Hyman (3) ; HY. Kwon (1) ; J. Tapasco (3)
(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America; (2) International Food Policy Research Institute, EPT, Washington, DC, United States of America; (3) International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia

Abstract content

Resource use in many developing countries, from crop production to deforestation, is responsible for the bulk of greenhouse gasses (GHG) emissions. We also know that there are instances in which the agricultural and forestry sectors can provide low-cost climate change mitigation opportunities. From a technical point of view, reducing expected increases in GHG emissions in agriculture requires the adoption of transformative approaches in the use of resources. A growing body of literature analyzes the effects of alternative agricultural practices; the livestock sector has also been the target of research on mitigation opportunities and the mitigation potential of forests, soil and other biomass, has been amply analyzed as well. However, from a policy-making perspective, the design of low emission development strategies is an example of multi-objective decision making in which policies target the reduction of GHG emissions while other goals such as increasing agricultural productivity and food security or attaining objectives such as export goals or economic growth, are preserved. Furthermore, it is important to consider that all countries are part of a global economic system and it is critical that policies are devised with full recognition of the role of the international economic environment which can significantly affect the long-term viability and the budgetary implications of mitigation policies.  The challenge at hand is therefore to reconcile the limited spatial resolution of macro-level economic models that operate at a subnational or national level with models that function at a higher spatial resolution, which allow to properly account for changes in carbon stocks and GHG emissions. To our knowledge there are only a few examples of analyses with similar objectives: Golub et al (2013) examined the impact on food consumption and income of implementing mitigation policies at national and regional levels. Schneider et al (2008) estimated mitigation potentials of U.S. agriculture with regionally disaggregated data and changes in welfare within the agricultural sector. Rutten et al. (2014) evaluated the effects of select climate change and economic growth scenarios on Vietnam’s economy. Havlik et al. (2014) estimated the effects of transitioning to more efficient livestock production system on GHG mitigation and the economy. In this work we demonstrate that different models, all widely accessible to the public, can be brought together to help policymakers in their evaluation of trade-offs, opportunities, and repercussions of alternative mitigation policies in the agricultural sector. While the focus of this work is on Colombia, the analytical framework can be applied to any country interested in exploring country-wide effects and economic viability of climate change mitigation policies in agriculture.  The approach is based on the use of public and widely accessible data and we believe that the flexibility and transparency of the approach proposed in this study can increase decision-makers’ trust in the results.  It appears clear from our analysis that policy-makers need substantial support in their decision-making process as the range of options they face can be very diverse and the effects of their decisions have important, and sometimes unexpected, repercussions. The effects of the policies we simulated cover the entire spectrum of potential outcomes. We find win-win policies (reducing land allocated to pasture increase revenues and carbon stock and reduces GHG emissions), policies with tradeoffs (limiting deforestation in the Amazon and a moderate increase in oil palm area increases carbon stock, decreases emissions, but reduces revenues) and policies that seem to generate clearly inferior results (substantial increasing the area allocate to oil palm cultivation reduces carbon stock, increases emissions and reduces revenues).  Given the complexity of low emissions development strategies, modeling approaches, frameworks, and tools should be adaptable, open, and transparent. Modeling frameworks should be adaptable so that policy makers can explore the consequences of using different data sets and incorporate new information as it becomes available. Modeling frameworks and tools should be open to the inclusion of input from different models and transparent so that the robustness of the results can be assessed. We believe that the modeling framework proposed in this work fits these characteristics. Stakeholders, from government agencies, to producer and consumers’ organizations to farmers, will benefit from policies devised with the support of solid evidence and the effects of which can be investigated and evaluated by all the parties affected.

Geoinformation-based morphometric flood risk and vulnerability analysis of Kubwa settlement, Abuja

M. I. Mahmoud (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, (KNUST), Kumasi, Ghana), C. Christopher (Institute of Geography and Geology, Wurzburg, Germany), M. Thiel, (Institute of Geography and Geology, Wurzburg, Germany), D. Alfred (College of Engineering, Geometrics Engineering Department, Kumasi, Ghana), S. A. Halilu (National Space Research and development Agency (NASRDA),, Abuja, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Geoinformation-based morphometric flood risk and vulnerability analysis of Kubwa settlement, Abuja

MI. Mahmoud (1) ; C. Christopher (2) ; M. Thiel, (2) ; D. Alfred (3) ; SA. Halilu (4)
(1) Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, (KNUST), Civil engeneeirng department- grp climate change and land use, Kumasi, Ghana; (2) Institute of Geography and Geology, Remote sensing, Wurzburg, Germany; (3) College of Engineering, Geometrics Engineering Department, Kwame nkrumah university of science and technology, Kumasi, Ghana; (4) National Space Research and development Agency (NASRDA),, Strategic space applications, Abuja, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Natural landscapes have profoundly been changed due to human activities. In particular, land use and land management change affect the hydrology that determines flood hazard. In this research, the use of historical remote sensing dataset is used to assess the vulnerability of people and places to potential risk associated to settlements especially from flooding events linked to lowland and floodplains. The motivation for this work is that global trends of disaster occurrences are on the increase in urban cities and peri- urban settlement. Hence there is urgent need to assess the vulnerability of places and people to natural hazards such as flood risk especially in developing countries to improve disaster risk reduction (DRR) programmes in urban areas. In here a geoinformation-based approach is adopted to initially map land cover change of Abuja and environ and to understand settlement morphology, and identify settlement such as Kubwa vulnerable to flooding event. Landsat (TM, ETM+ and OLI) image series from 1986, 2001 and 2014 were used to generate retrospective and contemporary landscape maps using support  vector machines (SVM). To unlock changes in plan implementation, result of the remote sensing-based land use maps was compared to the original land use map. It was apparent that residential areas have increased remarkably by more than 50%. To determine built area encroachment into the flood zone and floodplains, identify and classify the area into the different levels of vulnerability, a floodplain morphometric information extraction from public domain satellite-based DEMs geohazard modeling such as flood susceptibility due to landscape as well as climate extreme events. Finally, the assessment revealed that the central part of Kubwa, is largely a lowland which is observed to be densely populated and, is most affected by flood incidences due to soil sealing resulting to poor infiltration. Other characteristics include settlement encroachment into the flood zone and floodplains, clogging of the drains and lack of land use planning. The outlook of this study therefore recommends the need for geospatial land use planning, improved drainage infrastructure in delineated high risk zones, enforcement of standards and codes, community education/ participation, among others.

Metrics for the net climate effect of land use change in support of land based mitigation and adaptation policies

L. Perugini (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Viterbo, Italy), A. Arneth (KIT, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), A. Cescatti (Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy), N. De Noblet-Ducoudré (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France), G. Grassi (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy), J. House (University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom), B. Quesada (KIT, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), E. Robertson (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), M. Santini (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Viterbo, Italy), A. Wiltshire (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Metrics for the net climate effect of land use change in support of land based mitigation and adaptation policies

L. Perugini (1) ; A. Arneth (2) ; A. Cescatti (3) ; N. De Noblet-Ducoudré (4) ; G. Grassi (5) ; J. House (6) ; B. Quesada (2) ; E. Robertson (7) ; M. Santini (1) ; A. Wiltshire (7)
(1) Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Division on Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture, Forests and Ecosystem Services (IAFES), Viterbo, Italy; (2) KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (3) Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate Risk Management, Ispra, Italy; (4) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France; (5) European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Forest resources and climate unit, Ispra, Italy; (6) University of Bristol, School of geographical sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom; (7) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC) have a recognized effect on climate, both in terms of changes in the carbon cycle due to changes in vegetation and soil carbon (biogeochemical effects) and through variations of the surface energy budget mediated by albedo, evapotranspiration, roughness etc. (biophysical effects). While the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration in the atmosphere affects the climate in the long term and at global scale, biophysical effects result in short term changes in seasonal and/or annual surface temperatures with a prevalent local to regional effect. In addition, the climate signal of biogeochemical processes are independent to geographical location of the LULCC, whereas biophysical effects vary greatly in sign and magnitude depending on the latitude and ecosystems where they occur. For example, observations and model results suggest that deforestation has a predominantly warming effect in the tropics due to reduced evapotranspiration, exacerbating GHG effects, and a cooling effect in the boreal regions in the winter due to increased albedo, running counter to GHG effects, with some warming effects due to reduced evapotranspiration in the boreal summer.

The international policy process within the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) focuses entirely on GHG and their global effects. At the local level a combination of the global biogeochemical and local biophysical effects following LULCC are important for local climate, ecosystems, their biodiversity and the water cycle. Policies at the local to regional level that aim to address both mitigation and adaptation objectives will thus be less effective if they ignore the synergies and tradeoffs between biogeochemical and biophysical effects.

The paper presents a tool of practical use in support of assessment of mitigation/adaptation land policies, allowing a straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts of different LULCC transitions. Through a meta-analysis of the existing scientific literature, we quantified how the LULCC-climate change interplay affects regional vs. global scale, and biophysical vs. biogeochemical ecosystem-atmosphere exchange, providing a simple climate metric that summarize the changes in temperature and precipitation following LULCC. Compared to alternative approaches proposed so far, our strategy was to focus on the regional climate signals rather than on global average effects, considering that ecosystems and communities are affected and have to adapt to local climates.

[Note: This contribution is aimed at the session "Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system”; conveners Arneth/Stehfest/Popp]

Agriculture and livestock under the effects of climate change

M. Nofuentes Ramos (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), A. ÀGueda, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), O. Batet, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), S. Borràs, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), L. Cañas Ramírez (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), R. Curcoll (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), C. Grossi, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), P. Occhipinti, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), E. Vazquez, (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), X. Rodó (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain), J. A. Morgui (Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Agriculture and livestock under the effects of climate change

M. Nofuentes Ramos (1) ; A. ÀGueda, (1) ; O. Batet, (1) ; S. Borràs, (1) ; L. Cañas Ramírez (1) ; R. Curcoll (1) ; C. Grossi, (1) ; P. Occhipinti, (1) ; E. Vazquez, (1) ; X. Rodó (1) ; JA. Morgui (1)
(1) Institut Català de Ciències del Clima, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

Current practices in agriculture and livestock are closely linked with climate change. Surplus nitrogen use agriculture and intensive livestock production represent a major contribution to the increasing concentrations of various greenhouse gases (GHGs). Moreover, climate change affects crops and farms around the world, due to increased temperatures, weather extremes and incidence of floods and droughts.

Agriculture represents one of the main emitters of nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ammonia (NH3). Farming in the EU now accounts for 7% of global emissions of GHGs. Since the second half of the twentieth century the increased use of nitrogen fertilizers resulted in losses of nitrogen into the water and into the atmosphere. Intensive livestock production contributed to the emissions of methane (CH4).

Rising temperatures, reduction of water resources in many areas, changes in the frequency and distribution of rainfall, droughts and floods, etc., directly affect agriculture. Every one of these changes can lower the agricultural production in certain areas as much as traditional crops are abandoned and lost for future climate adaptation. Increases in temperature will help pests and diseases to proliferate in crops with a consequent reduction in both the quantity and quality of agricultural production.

Furthermore, livestock production is directly affected by climate change too. Under high temperatures herds suffer more illnesses and stress as a consequence of a decrease in grazing and grazing time as less rainfall will disrupt the seasonal availability of pastures. Disturbances over crop forage will reduce the herd livestock production while increasing production costs.

We open the debate on livestock production and their effects on ecosystem metabolism (missions of GHGs) by discussing the production capacity of traditional practices of livestock management in different protected areas in Spain, where adaptation of the vegetation to both managed grazing (forest burning, intensive pastures, seasonal migration) and severe climate has shaped the landscape. As an applied use of GHGs monitoring from the ClimaDat Project, we will debate the variability in mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions by different options of land use management.

 

New global land use under climate change and freshwater restrictions

A. Pastor (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), A. Palazzo (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), F. Ludwig (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), P. Havlik (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), P. Kabat (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract details
New global land use under climate change and freshwater restrictions

A. Pastor (1) ; A. Palazzo (2) ; F. Ludwig (1) ; P. Havlik (2) ; P. Kabat (2)
(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

Abstract content

Allocation of agriculture commodities and water resources is subject to changes due to climate change, population increase and changes in dietary patterns. This study focused on including global water availability including environmental flow requirements with water withdrawal from irrigation at a monthly time-step in the GLOBIOM model. This model allows re-adjustment of land-use allocation, crop management, consumption and international trade. The GLOBIOM model induces an endogenous change in water price depending on water supply and demand. In this study, the focus was on how the inclusion of water resources affects land-use and, in particular, how global change will influence repartition of irrigated and rainfed lands at global scale. We used the climate change scenario including a radiative forcing of 2.6 W/m2 (RCP8.5), and the environmental flow method based on monthly flow allocation (the Variable Monthly Flow method) with high and low restrictions. Irrigation withdrawals were adjusted to a monthly time-step to account for biophysical water limitations at finer time resolution. Our results show that irrigated land might decrease up to 40% on average depending on the choice of EFR restrictions. Several areas were identified as future hot-spots of water stress such as the Mediterranean and Middle-East regions and parts of South-East Asia where theWater Stress Indicator (WSI) ranges from 0.4 to 1 by 2050. Other countries were identified to be in safe position in terms of water stress such as North-European countries. Some countries such as India expect a significant increase in water demand which might be compensated by an increase in water supply with climate change scenario. Re-allocation of rainfed and irrigated land might be useful information for land-use planners and water managers at an international level to decide on appropriate legislations on climate change mitigation/adaptation when exposure and sensitivity to climate change is high and/or on adaptation measures to face increasing water demand. For example, some countries are likely to adopt measures to increase their water use efficiencies (irrigation system, soil and water conservation practices) to face water shortages, while others might consider improving their trade policy to avoid food shortage.

Land Degradation and Resource Based Economy – A Case Study in Indian Sunderbans

T. Ghosh (Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India), S. Saha (Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India)

Abstract details
Land Degradation and Resource Based Economy – A Case Study in Indian Sunderbans

T. Ghosh (1) ; S. Saha (1)
(1) Jadavpur University, School of Oceanographic Studies, Kolkata, India

Abstract content

The Indian part of Sunderbans is highly vulnerable due to climate change impacts like sea level rise, erosion, salinization of soil and water, cyclones, etc. This study is an attempt to identify the drivers impacting the traditional resource based economy and consequent adaptation. Kultali (21051/N, 88030/E to 21056/N, 88034/E), an administrative area (Block) in the district of  South 24 Parganas’ within Indian Sunderbans on the Bay of Bengal is a very backward area in terms of poverty ratio and vulnerability index (Human Development Report, Govt. of India, 2009). The villages namely Bhubaneswari, Maipit, Binodpur, Baikunthapur, Kishorimohanpur and Bhubaneswari Char under the Kultali Block are under study, situated between the confluence of River Matla and River Thakuran. This area is highly vulnerable due to their close proximity to Bay of Bengal, frequent cyclones, coastal flooding and subsequent land inundation every year. The inhabitants solely depend on the traditional primary activities depending on natural resources to make their sustenance. In agriculture, mono-cropping is the only way of livelihood for the population, with high level of exposure to climate change and natural hazards. Inland fishing is another practice on subsistence basis, while the more vulnerable section depends on offshore fishing. Increasing salinization in river water and soil resulted from sea level rise and frequent inundation, negatively affects the fertility of soil, yield of crops and fish catch, which in turn affect the local economy. The situation has become worsen after cyclone ‘Aila’ on 25th may 2009, when extreme level of  inundation left behind saline water stagnation for a considerable time causing deposition of salt layer on the productive topsoil, leaving the land unproductive for longer time. Consequently, change in land-use pattern as well as change in occupational structure has observed. Minimal effort to switch over to salt tolerant variety of paddy and other variants of vegetables and fruits traditionally grown are found insufficient. Hence, the workforce in the community finds agriculture as a ‘loss business’ and lacking any other alternate skill they intend to migrate as a non-skilled daily labourers. Feasible adaptation measures may be recommended with further to revive this resource dependent subsistence economy.

Uncertainties of future land use change and the potentials of land-based mitigation - an analysis with the SSP scenarios and the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment modelling framework

J. C. Doelman (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands), E. Stehfest (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands), D. Van Vuuren (PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Bilthoven, Netherlands)

Abstract details
Uncertainties of future land use change and the potentials of land-based mitigation - an analysis with the SSP scenarios and the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment modelling framework

JC. Doelman (1) ; E. Stehfest (2) ; D. Van Vuuren (3)
(1) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Climate, Air and Energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands; (2) PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; (3) PBL Netherlands Environment Agency, PBL, Climate, air pollution and energy, Bilthoven, Netherlands

Abstract content

This contribution is aimed at the session "Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system” - conveners Arneth/Stehfest/Popp.

Historically, the continuous increase in anthropogenic land use has been an important driver of CO2 emissions and biodiversity loss. The scale and dynamics of future land use change (LUC) are very uncertain. The recently proposed concept of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) allows us to systematically analyze some of the uncertainties. Integrated assessment models, like IMAGE, can explore the linkages within these scenarios between socio-economic drivers, technology projections, developments in the energy system, policy assumptions and implications for future land-use. It can also look at future land use projections which are dynamically coupled to changes in the global climate and carbon cycle. This provides the possibility to determine the potential of land-based mitigation options, and directly assess the climate and carbon effects  under different scenarios. In this contribution, we present a recent IMAGE analysis using the SSPs to explore the uncertainty in future land use in relation to mitigation action.

The analysis shows anthropogenic land use (crop and pasture land) could increase by 4 million km2 (SSP3, driven mostly by population growth and dietary changes), but also decrease by 7 million km2 (SSP1, as a result of yield improvements and intensification). Cumulative CO2 emissions from LUC by 2100 range from an increase of 280 Gt CO2 (SSP3) to a decrease of 70 Gt CO2 (SSP1), equivalent to an increase of 36 ppmv and a decrease of 9 ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere respectively.

Land-based mitigation measures are an important component of ambitious climate mitigation scenarios. The implementation of options such as bio-energy, reforestation, REDD, agricultural intensification or dietary change have large potentials. However, the net impact depends highly on the context of implementation. Socio-economic trends and non-land climate mitigation substantially affect the land-based mitigation potential, which is typically very location-dependent. The SSP analyses shows the potential of a range of mitigation options. An example is the implementation of REDD in an SSP1 scenario with ambitious climate mitigation, where areas with large carbon stocks are protected. This results in additional intensification of agricultural land due to limited land availability, and a shift of agricultural expansion to areas with lower carbon stocks. Due to this measure, carbon emissions are reduced by 87 Gt CO2, equivalent to 11 ppmv CO2 in the atmosphere.

Next to biogeochemical climate effects, biophysical climate effects of LUC have a substantial impact. Regionally, the net temperature effect of changes in the land energy balance due to differences in albedo or evapotranspiration can be in the same order of magnitude as projected global warming. The location of change is very important, as deforestation in the tropics can lead to a surface warming of 0.5-1 degrees compared to a surface cooling in the highest latitudes of 3-4 degrees (Davin & Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010). As part of the LUC4C FP7 project, the biophysical effects of the SSP land use projections will be studied in collaboration with earth system models.

Land Use Change as Barrier and Enabler for Integrated Climate Change Responses

I. Brown (James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, United Kingdom), D. Feliciano (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Land Use Change as Barrier and Enabler for Integrated Climate Change Responses

I. Brown (1) ; D. Feliciano (2)
(1) James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; (2) Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Land has a finite supply but is subject to an increasing range and intensity of demands that usually involve complex interactions between climate and socioeconomic factors. We have used detailed land use survey data and interviews to investigate these interactions in Scotland (UK) and how they may shape future landscapes using scenario analysis that combines these data with global drivers. The analysis shows the importance of considering 'path dependency' in the evaluation of both adaptation and mitigation land use options. It also highlights that current separation of adaptation and mitigation strategies can result in them 'competing' for the same area of land.

 

Biophysical factors that influence land supply, including climate and soils, have been analysed using land capability/suitability concepts to investigate the changing options available for land managers. Socioeconomic factors have been summarised in terms of the 5 Ps (Policy, Preferences, Prices, Power, Path Dependence) to provide a framework for understanding their relative influence. These influences vary between different localities and regions, and particularly between lowland and upland landscapes. High quality land in the lowlands is currently prioritised for food production and much of the land in the uplands has very limited options therefore is effectively prioritised for nature conservation, tourism and recreation. This leaves an area of land that is currently of intermediate quality ('the Squeezed Middle') which has many competing and increasing demands: food, energy, water, afforestation, flood protection, infrastructure etc.; in particular, this land together with the uplands is identified as crucial for meeting climate mitigation targets for GHG emissions reduction.

 

However, the changing climate further complicates issues because it is affecting land quality (ie. supply) concurrent with changes in demand due to drivers such as globalisation and new technology.  The relative influence of top-down and bottom-up factors are therefore changing temporally and geographically, and are particularly exemplified by reactive adaptation responses to recent anomalous or extreme weather. Scenario analysis shows how these factors may play out in the future and how policy could have a more positive influence by encouraging integrated and planned adaptation in coordination with mitigation objectives.

 

We find that local preferences and the role of path dependence are currently having a high influence on land use decisions. Although land use options are being modified as climate change modifies land capability, the preferences of land managers are to extend options with which they are already familiar. This is usually due to aversion to the risks involved with uptake of new options and concerns over loss of policy support (particularly from the subsidies of the EU Common Agricultural Policy). As a consequence, adaptation measures tend to be mainly reactive and mitigation measures are extensions of those already in use.

 

In more marginal locations, the role of subsidy support is crucial in influencing land use choices, and this has resulted in new woodland tending to be marginalised to the poorest quality land despite its potential advantages in delivering both adaptation and mitigation benefits. On both high quality and marginal land, the role of policy in counteracting negative influences could be considerably enhanced through stronger spatial targetting of measures based upon local characteristics.

 

It is particularly salient to note that most land managers acknowledge that seasonal weather, which influences their planning and activities, is changing (regardless of attribution to anthropogenic cllimate change) and they recognise this as a key challenge that they need to better understand and manage. However, path dependence is often entrenched because to fully adapt to change requires negotation and coordination with other land users over a larger area. Currently, policy is mainly developed sectorally and implemented through individual measures that discourages this coordination.

Genetic diversity of perennial grass species in response to temperature during germination

L. Q. Ahmed (INRA, Lusignan, France), J.-L. Durand (INRA, Lusignan, France), A. J. Escobar Gutiérrez (INRA, Lusignan, France)

Abstract details
Genetic diversity of perennial grass species in response to temperature during germination

LQ. Ahmed (1) ; JL. Durand (2) ; AJ. Escobar Gutiérrez (1)
(1) INRA, Lusignan, France; (2) INRA, Environnement et Agronomie, Lusignan, France

Abstract content

Grasslands cover more that 40% of earth’s surface and at least 30% of the 160 Mha Agricultural Surface Area of Europe.  They are among the largest ecosystems on earth and one of the major sources of forage.  Further, in the context of climate change, grasslands are considered, similar to forest, as an important sink for atmospheric CO2.  The agricultural use-value of grasslands depends on their floristic composition and the structure of their canopy.  These two intertwined features directly determine the quality and the quantity of the biomass harvested by grazing or mowing.  Perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L), tall fescue (Festuca arundinacea Schreb) and coksfoot (Dactylis glomerata L.) are the major perennial grass species in temperate and Mediterranean regions.  However, during the lifespan of grassland, both floristic and genetic compositions as well as canopy structure evolve under the influences of environmental factors and the competitive interplay between individual.  Floristic and genetic composition evolves because of individuals' mortality and recruitment of new species and genotypes from the soil seed-bank or natural sowing.  Temperature is one of the major factors controlling plant development rates (i.e. plant phenology, organogenesis and expansive growth).  It is important in controlling seed germination.  Indeed, higher plant species, as well as populations, varieties and cultivars within species, respond differently to temperature during the critical period of germination and seedling establishment in the field.  Literature is vast on this subject that is always a topical issue.  In the context of global change, breeding grasses adapted to new ranges of temperature could be necessary.  Knowing the variability of responses to temperature by different accession of germplasm is an unavoidable first step towards such breading.  Thus, the objective of the work presented here was to analyse the genetic variability of L. perenne, F. arundinacea and D. glomerata in response to temperature during germination.

Eight populations of L. perenne L., nine populations of F. arundinacea and six populations of D. glomerata were evaluated.  Four replicates of one-hundred seeds per population were tested for germination in the dark under eight single temperature regimes between 5 and 40°C with 5˚C. Maximum germination (%), apparent initial time of germination and germination rates were estimated.

The novelty of this work comes from the wide range of temperatures evaluated (5 to 40°C).  Striking results show that no germination at all was observed at 40°C for any of the 23 populations under study.  However, it was observed that, within each species, the response of populations to temperature shows high variability and statistically significant differences (P<0.05).  Optimal temperature for germination ranged from less than 10°C to 26°C.  Further, it was observed a differential sensitivity to our extreme treatments (5 and 35°C).

Overall, these results demonstrate that genetic variability does exist within the three studied grass species for response to temperature during germination.  This should prompt i) physiologist to extend to other processes the analyses of response to temperature, and ii) plant breeders to collect and analyse populations of grasses from sites with extreme environmental conditions.  We suggest that seed germination of populations from septentrional and cold sites is enhanced by high temperatures and limited by colder temperatures and vice versa for warm-adapted populations from the South.  The variability discovered in this study should serve breeders to create grass varieties for the future.

Potential impacts of forestation on the future climate change in Southern Africa

A. Babatunde (Univesrity of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western , South Africa), M. Naik (Univesrity of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western , South Africa)

Abstract details
Potential impacts of forestation on the future climate change in Southern Africa

A. Babatunde (1) ; M. Naik (1)
(1) Univesrity of Cape Town, Environmental And Geographical Science, Cape Town, Western , South Africa

Abstract content

Abstract

Many studies have projected the future climate change over Southern Africa, but without including the influence of on-going forestation activities in the region. The present study investigates how the forestation activities may alter the projected climate change. For the study, two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were applied to simulate the present-day (1970–2005) climate, and the future (2030–2065; IPCC RCP 4.5) climate, with and without forestation. The simulations account for the potential impacts of natural bush encroachment and the commercial forestation over the eastern part of South Africa. The results agree with previous studies in that the elevated greenhouse emissions would induce warming over Southern Africa in the future, but the results further indicate that forestation would enhance the warming over the forested area and induces cooling elsewhere. The additional warming over the forested area is due to the albedo-effect of the forestation, while the cooling is due to the dynamic feedback of the local warming over the forested area. For similar reasons, the forestation would induce both wet and dry conditions over the sub-continent in future. As a result of its combined influences on rainfall and temperature, the forestation would enhance drought frequency over some areas, but reduces it over other areas in Southern Africa. This study suggests that using forestation to mitigate the impacts of global warming may produce unintended climate impacts over some areas in Southern Africa. Hence, the biophysical effects of forestation in Southern Africa should be weighed against the biogeochemical benefits.

 

Key words: climate change; forestation; Southern Africa

Impacts of changes in land surface processes on the West African Monsoon variability : Results from the LUCID intercomparison project

S. Sy (LPAOSF/LOCEAN, Dakar, Senegal), B. Sultan (IRD, Paris, France), N. De Noblet-Ducoudré (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France), A. T. Gaye (University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Dakar, Senegal), N. Ousmane (ANACIM, Dakar, Senegal), M. Wade, (Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal), F. Yohann (KINOME, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Impacts of changes in land surface processes on the West African Monsoon variability : Results from the LUCID intercomparison project

S. Sy (1) ; B. Sultan (2) ; N. De Noblet-Ducoudré (3) ; AT. Gaye (4) ; N. Ousmane (5) ; M. Wade, (6) ; F. Yohann (7)
(1) LPAOSF/LOCEAN, Dakar, Senegal; (2) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (3) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette cédex, France; (4) University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Laboratory of atmospheric and ocean physics, Dakar, Senegal; (5) ANACIM, Dakar, Senegal; (6) Univ. Cheikh Anta Diop, Lpaosf, Dakar, Senegal; (7) KINOME, Paris, Paris, France

Abstract content

West Africa has been highlighted as a hot spot of land surface–atmosphere interactions. The effect of changes in land surface processes on West African Monsoon (WAM) variability have been found very improtant. In this study, we analyze the outputs of the project Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust Impacts (LUCID) over West Africa. LUCID uses seven land-atmosphere models with common experimental configurations to explain the strong and constant impact of the land-use and land cover change (LULCC) between the preindustrial period and present day. Focusing our analysis on Sahel and Guinea zone where the changes in the extent covered of crops and pastures between 1870 and 1992 exceeds 5%. These studies have analyzed the performances of the individual GCMs/LSMs model involved in LUCID to simulate the WAM interannual variability. The results showed that the magnitude of these variability varies significantly from model to model resulting two major ‘features’ varying from one model to another : the land-cover distribution and the simulated sensitivity to LULCC. Changes in land surface properties in each individual model depend on how these represent and respond to a land-cover perturbation have been shown, as well as their simulated impacts on fluxes, rainfall and surface temperature. Finally, the climatic impacts of LULCC to those resulting from the changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, and increased greenhouse gases on WAM were evaluated. We found that for a number of variables (available energy, temperature, available water etc..), the amplitude of the impact of LULCC is similar to the impact of increased greenhouse gases and warmer oceans, but with opposite sign.

The Morphology of Urban Risk to Flooding In Metro-Manila, Philippines: Patterns of Exposure and Vulnerability Based on Informality and Land Use/ Cover Change

M. C. T. Vicente (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines), G. T. Narisma (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines), F. P. Siringan (University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, MM, Philippines), M. A. Y. Loyzaga, (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines), C. F. P. Del (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines), P. G. Sanchez (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines), R. S. Dayawon (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines), E. Gozo (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines), J. E. G. Perez (University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, MM, Philippines)

Abstract details
The Morphology of Urban Risk to Flooding In Metro-Manila, Philippines: Patterns of Exposure and Vulnerability Based on Informality and Land Use/ Cover Change

MCT. Vicente (1) ; GT. Narisma (2) ; FP. Siringan (3) ; MAY. Loyzaga, (4) ; CFP. Del (1) ; PG. Sanchez (1) ; RS. Dayawon (1) ; E. Gozo (2) ; JEG. Perez (3)
(1) Manila Observatory, Geomatics for environment and development program, Quezon City, MM, Philippines; (2) Manila Observatory, Regional climate systems program, Quezon City, MM, Philippines; (3) University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, Quezon City, MM, Philippines; (4) Manila Observatory, Quezon City, MM, Philippines

Abstract content

The Project, “International Research Initiative on Adaptation to Climate Change-Coastal Cities at Risk (IRIACC-CCAR): Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities” is on-going from 2011-2016.  Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC) manages IRIACC-CCAR in collaboration with three main research granting bodies, known as the Tri-Council: The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR).  Under this transdisciplinary IRIACC-CCAR Project, Metro-Manila is a study site, along with Bangkok, Lagos and Vancouver.  A component of this research for Metro-Manila, undertaken by the Manila Observatory with local partners and described below, is the study on the morphology of urban risk to flooding, which applies multi-temporal and multi-resolution remote sensing and geographic information systems (RS-GIS).

 

The specific objectives of this study are to: (1) Generate historical and updated locations of urban  poor settlements, (2) Identify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the said settlements in relation to other land use/ cover and infrastructure, the former especially considering residential areas, commercial and industrial sites as well as vegetation, (3) Describe the patterns of urbanization and physical development, such as by the emergence, growth, spread and even the disappearance of the said human settlements, (4) Study the factors contributing to flood risk, which then need to be addressed.

 

Part I of the research gives the context of informality and vulnerability to flooding in terms of general land use/ cover change from 1972-2009 (LANDSATs courtesy of NASA).  Part II involves change detection of informal settlements, that is, in 1997 and 2000 (SPOT courtesy of NAMRIA) as well as 2010 (ALOS AVNIR and PRISM courtesy of JAXA).  Part III then concerns overlaying thematic layers of flood risk, where Risk ≈ ƒ(Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability) (UNDP 2004 and UNDRO 1979).  In terms of hazard, this flood risk is especially attributed to low elevation coastal zones or LECZs, which are continuous areas along shores that are equal to or "less than 10 meters above sea level" (masl) and, as such, are prone to inundation (McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B. April 2007).  Moreover and as a reflection of poor drainage, river choke points were also observed and validated (Siringan, F. and Perez, J.E., on-going research).

 

Resulting maps show an overall increasing trend in expansion or growth and distribution or spread of the informal settlements.  These are found in marginal, hazard-prone and compromising locations, such as coasts, riverbanks and landfills but near advantageous sites, like major roads as well as industries and commerce.  Also, the 1997 and 2000 clustering of informal settlements around socioeconomic attractors seem to give way to more movements towards the fringes of the metropolis in 2010.  Dense and overcrowded formal and informal communities (“mixed” settlements), showing comparatively less signs of structural degradation, initially emerged and then declined.  This appears closely associated with income and land tenure, which need to be studied more deeply.  Very high resolution (VHR) satellite imageries are then necessary in order to monitor informal housing and livelihood, given their dispersion as small and large agglomerations as well as relatively small and degraded structures or spatial units.  Besides poor drainage, factors contributing to flooding are: Haphazard urban expansion, densification, industrialization and commercialization and decline in vegetation.  The study of broad and detailed land use/ cover across time may also benefit from hyperspectral satellite imageries.  Salient patterns of exposure and vulnerability to flooding then form evidence-based decision-support towards better planning for preparedness and resilience, as by co-beneficial climate change adaptation as well as risk reduction and management (CCA-DRRM).

Land use response to the climate change in the Great Hungarian Plain?

Z. Pinke (Szent István University, Gödöllő, Hungary)

Abstract details
Land use response to the climate change in the Great Hungarian Plain?

Z. Pinke (1)
(1) Szent István University, Environmental Protection and Landscape Ecology, Gödöllő, Hungary

Abstract content

This poster presents the concept of interactions between environmental conditions and the productivity as well as the extension of Hungarian arable lands.

Firstly, a descriptive analysis demonstrates the synchronity of the tide of arable lands and climate change. Hungary lies on the border of hot and warm summer subtypes of the humid continental zone. Its plains were transformed into homogeneous grain-producing regions during the 19th century modernization that linked to river regulations. As I see the humidity of the late and post-Little Ice Age (between the mid1870s and the mid1940s) was an important factor in process of this landscape transformation. On the one hand, the late 19th century Hungary replied to the increasing flood-hazard with the intensification of river regulation. On the other hand, the relative precipitation surplus of the humid cycle palpably reduced the drought-proneness of the Great Hungarian Plain (GHP), thus providing a low risk opportunity to convert wetlands into tillages in tens of thousands of square kilometres. The extension of arable lands reached their saturation level between 1913 and the mid1940s, while the beginning of their decrease overlapped precisely with the end of the humid climatic cycle. This decline has been going on in Hungary since the late 1940s. As a part of this process severe droughts and excess surface water inundations have led to the rapid abandonment of croplands in huge areas (e.g. 1952, 1963, 1999, 2010).

Secondly, the paper presents the results of statistical examinations of seven crops – barley, corn, oats, potato, rye, sunflower, and wheat – losses due to droughts and excess surface water events at a national and a county scale between 1921 and 2010. The relationship between the Pálfai Drought Index (PaDI), extension of inundated areas and annual crop yields was examined by ANOVA, the differences between crop yields in counties by t-test at a 5% significance level. It is an important methodological aspect that the annual yields of periods with approximately the same technological standards should be compared. Years with extreme yield fluctuations in wartime events (1944-45), technological transition (e.g. 1959-1975), transformation of property and economic structure (1990-1994) were eliminated. Thus, besides 30 years long meteorological periods (1921-1950, 1951-1980, 1981-2010), four homogenized technological periods were created (1921-1938, 1946-1958, 1976-1989, 1991-2010).

The closest relationship appeared between crop yield losses and values of the drought index in periods with high PaDI standard deviation. Deviations within 30-years long periods indicate a long-term trend towards an increasing frequency of extreme droughts since the late 1980s. The last technological period (1991-2010) when the standard deviation of drought indices is the highest in the examined 90 years, the yield losses of five out of seven crops indicate a significant and close relation to PaDI values. These results indicate a major transformation in the meteorological conditions of cropland farming. Over the last one and a half decades extreme droughts and inundations have alternated rapidly. Corn deserves a special attention for several reasons. Besides wheat, it is corn that has the most extensive harvest area in Hungary. In the past decade it covered some 26-28% of Hungarian croplands. Since growing season of corn (June-August) is highly exposed to drought, the fluctuation of corn yields showed a close linear relation to drought indices in three out four technological periods and in the three 30-year long periods (e.g. between 1981 and 2010 R²=0.78; y = -0,4657x + 8,3674; 30 couples).

The most conspicuous phenomenon is that more extremes happened in the last two decades than in the former seven decades. The impact of the climatic variability on the crop yields has been more and more apparent in the regression coefficients. It is partly for this reason that the average yields of the most drought-prone counties that lies in the GHP and covered the majority of former floodplains fall below the national average. Such a high level of exposure to drought fundamentally queries the economic rationale of cropland farming, led to the abandonment of vast areas of cropland and justifies the objective of the European Water Framework Directive that is the water retention in the former floodplains of the Great Hungarian Plain.

Zero-Tillage lessens soil CO2 emissions the most under arid and sandy soil conditions: results from a meta-analysis

K. Abdalla (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa), V. Chaplot (Institute of Research for Development (IRD), Paris, France), P. Chivenge (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa)

Abstract details
Zero-Tillage lessens soil CO2 emissions the most under arid and sandy soil conditions: results from a meta-analysis

K. Abdalla (1) ; V. Chaplot (2) ; P. Chivenge (1)
(1) University of KwaZulu-Natal, Centre for Water Resources Research, School of Agricultural, Earth & Environmental Sciences, Pietermaritzburg, KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa; (2) Institute of Research for Development (IRD), Laboratory of oceanography and climate (locean), pierre and marie curie university, Paris, France

Abstract content

The management of agroecosystems plays a crucial role in the global C cycle with soil tillage leading to known organic carbon redistributions within soils and changes in soil CO2 emissions. Yet discrepancies exist on the impact of tillage on soil CO2 emissions and on the main soil and environment controls. A meta-analysis was conducted using 46 peered reviewed publications totaling 174 observations comparing CO2 emissions from tilled (T) and no-tilled (NT) soils with the objective to quantify tillage impact on CO2 emissions and to assess the main controls. On average, T soils emitted 21% more CO2 than NT soils, which corresponded to a significant difference at P<0.05. The difference increased to 29% in sandy soils from arid climates with low soil organic carbon content (SOCC<1%), but tillage had no impact on CO2 fluxes in clayey soils of high SOCc (>3%). Finally, nitrogen fertilization and crop residue management had little effect on the CO2 responses of soils to tillage. These results on the role of soil and environmental conditions on soil CO2 emissions response to tillage are expected to increase our understanding of carbon outputs from terrestrial ecosystems as well as to set up effective mitigation measures of climate change mitigation.

 

Amazonia, a tropical forest in transition: from natural biogenic conditions to land use change, large scale biomass burning and urbanization

P. Artaxo (University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil), H. Barbosa, (University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil), J. F. Brito, (University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil), S. Carbone, (University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil), E. Sena, (University of São Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil), L. Rizzo, (Federal University of São Paulo, UNIFESP , Diadema, Brazil)

Abstract details
Amazonia, a tropical forest in transition: from natural biogenic conditions to land use change, large scale biomass burning and urbanization

P. Artaxo (1) ; H. Barbosa, (1) ; JF. Brito, (1) ; S. Carbone, (1) ; E. Sena, (1) ; L. Rizzo, (2)
(1) University of São Paulo, Applied Physics Department, Sao Paulo, Brazil; (2) Federal University of São Paulo, UNIFESP , Department of earth and exact sciences, Diadema, Brazil

Abstract content

Amazonia is a large tropical forest in transition, with strong pressures for agriculture expansion, climate change, urbanization and others. Deforestation rate has decreased dramatically, from 27,700 km² in 2004 to 4,700 km² in 2013, being responsible for a strong reduction in greenhouse gas emissions on the order of 70%. Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional precipitation patterns and river discharge. Although the basin-wide impacts of land use and drought may not yet surpass the magnitude of natural variability of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, there are some signs of a transition to a disturbance-dominated regime. These signs include changing energy and water cycles in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon basin.

Feedbacks in Amazonia are very strong between ecosystem functioning, trace gases and aerosol emissions, cloud cover, precipitation, radiation balance and other key issues. In the wet season, a large portion of the Amazon region constitutes one of the most pristine continental areas, with very low concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and aerosol particles. However, land use change modifies the biosphere-atmosphere interactions in such a way that key processes that maintain the functioning of Amazonia are substantially altered. This study presents long term aerosol and trace gases observations at a preserved forest site in Central Amazonia, with observations from 2008 to 2013. Amazonian aerosols were characterized in detail, including aerosol size distributions, aerosol light absorption and scattering, optical depth and aerosol inorganic and organic composition, among others properties. Trace gases analyzed includes volatile organic compounds (VOCs), O3, CO2, CH4, N2O and CO. The central Amazonia region showed very low aerosol concentrations (PM2.5 of 1.3±0.7 µgm-3 and 3.4±2.0 µgm-3 in the wet and dry seasons, respectively), with a median particle number concentration of a low 220 cm-3 in the wet season. Aerosol composition shows organic aerosol accounting to 81% to the PM1 aerosol loading. Aerosol light scattering and absorption coefficients were very low during the wet season, increasing by a factor of 5, approximately, in the dry season due to long range transport of biomass burning aerosols reaching the forest site in the dry season. Remote sensing observations from six AERONET sites and from MODIS from 1999 to 2013, provides a regional and temporal overview of changes in Amazonian atmosphere. Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm of less than 0.1 is characteristic of natural conditions over Amazonia. At the arc of deforestation region, AOD values greater than 4 were frequently observed in the dry season. Combined analysis of MODIS and CERES showed that the mean direct radiative forcing of aerosols at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) during the biomass burning season was a high −5.6±1.7 Wm−2, averaged over whole Amazon Basin. For high AOD (larger than 1) the maximum daily direct aerosol radiative forcing at the TOA was as high as −20 Wm−2 locally. This change in the radiation balance caused increases in the diffuse radiation flux, with an increase of Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of 18-29% for high values of AOD. Recently the GoAmazon project is analyzing the impacts of urbanization on atmospheric properties, and preliminary results shows important changes in ozone formation, secondary organic aerosol production and cloud properties.

From this analysis, it is clear that land use change in Amazonia shows alterations of many atmospheric properties, and these changes are affecting the functioning of the Amazonian ecosystem in significant ways. The potential impacts on global carbon cycle and on the hydrological cycle are large.  

Funded by Instituto Nacional de Ciência e Tecnologia para Mudanças Climáticas - INCT Global Change – CNPq/FAPESP, and FAPESP project 2013/05014-0

Low-Density Development and the Increasing Greenhouse Emissions in Malaysian Special Economic Zones

A. Barau (Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia)

Abstract details
Low-Density Development and the Increasing Greenhouse Emissions in Malaysian Special Economic Zones

A. Barau (1)
(1) Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, Urban and Regional Planning, Johor Bahru, Johor, Malaysia

Abstract content

Low-density development is one of the major problems associated with rapid urbanization in the global south. Special economic zones (SEZs) constitute new layers of capital driven urbanization and industrialization in many Asian emerging economies. In many Asian countries, SEZs cause rapid fragmentation of landscapes within and around urban areas. This paper focuses on Iskandar Malaysia, one of the most successful emerging SEZs in Southeast Asia. This economic region has attracted more than US$25 billion so far from the expected US$100 billion investments in housing, education, tourism and infrastructure to be realized by 2025. Recent studies have projected that by 2025, if the business as usual model continues, the region’s greenhouse emissions and energy consumption will increase more than 70% and 80% respectively. The paper aims to link and discuss how fragmentation of agricultural landscapes, mangroves, coastal vegetation and other green areas give rise to increasing emissions through new urban development projects. The current study relied heavily on fieldwork, landscape metrics for calculation of landscape change using GIS and FRAGSTATS. The study findings used established examples within the region and beyond, to estimate increases in emissions and carbon storage capacities from fragmented agricultural landscapes, mangroves, new low-density development activities, and expanded roads. The findings clearly showed that landscape change is one of the principal source of carbon emissions that climate scientist underestimate in the Asian emerging economies. The study highlights the critical threats of low-density development in increasing carbon emission.

An Impact of Climate on Tree Species Diversity in Tropical Reserve Forest using Geospatial Domain

T. Vandana (Haryana Institute of Public Administration, Gurgaon, India), K. Amit (Haryana Institute of Public Administration, Gurgaon, India)

Abstract details
An Impact of Climate on Tree Species Diversity in Tropical Reserve Forest using Geospatial Domain

T. Vandana (1) ; K. Amit (1)
(1) Haryana Institute of Public Administration, Remote sensing, Gurgaon, India

Abstract content

Forest is a tool mentioned for ecological balance and environmental set up. It performs social, ecological and economical functions to the living organisms such as it preserves the natural resources for the sustainable use, lesser soil erosin, preserves the animal habitat etc.  Forest degradation in the tropics is of significant concern because of the substantial losses of biomass and habitat fragmentation. Geographic Information System (GIS) has been proven in many studies and experiences to aid in the decision-making process based on Multi-Criteria techniques. The advancement in remote sensing coupled to Geographic information system expedites the adverse changes in forest vegetation and the assessment of impact of various factors such as climatic change or human activities on forests.This study aims to evaluate an assessment of tree species diversity of the Sariska Tiger Reserve using GIS and Multi criteria techniques. Vegetation indices among other methods have been reliable in monitoring vegetation change. One of the most widely used indices for vegetation monitoring is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index because vegetation differential absorbs visible incident solar radiant and reflected much of the infrared. Data on vegetation biophysical characteristics can be derived from visible and NIR and mid-infrared portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. Four forest types, namely Anogeissus pendula, Boswellia serrata, mixed Anogeissus butea and mixed Acacia zizyphus are mainly dominant in the forest cover of Alwar district. Satellite data of LISS III (2012) give precise information of vegetation through reflectance value. 

Contribution of the analysis of diurnal cycles for understanding the mean seasonal cycle of rainforest photosynthetic activity in Central Africa

N. Philippon (Centre de Recherche de Climatologie, Dijon, France), B. De Lapparent (Centre de Recherche de Climatologie, Dijon, France), V. Gond (CIRAD, Montpellier, France), S. Bigot (Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE), Grenoble, France), T. Brou, (UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UM2, UAG, UR), Saint Denis, France), P. Camberlin, (Centre de Recherche de Climatologie, Dijon, France), G. Cornu, (CIRAD, Montpellier, France), V. Dubreuil, (LETG-Rennes-COSTEL, UMR 6554 CNRS / Université de Rennes 2, Rennes, France), N. Martiny, (Centre de Recherche de Climatologie, Dijon, France), B. Morel, (LE2P, EA 4079, Université de La Réunion, Saint Denis, France), V. Moron (Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, France, Aix-en-Provence, France), G. Sèze, (LMD, UMR8539 CNRS / Université Paris 6, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Contribution of the analysis of diurnal cycles for understanding the mean seasonal cycle of rainforest photosynthetic activity in Central Africa

N. Philippon (1) ; B. De Lapparent (1) ; V. Gond (2) ; S. Bigot (3) ; T. Brou, (4) ; P. Camberlin, (1) ; G. Cornu, (2) ; V. Dubreuil, (5) ; N. Martiny, (1) ; B. Morel, (6) ; V. Moron (7) ; G. Sèze, (8)
(1) Centre de Recherche de Climatologie, Biogéosciences UMR6282 CNRS / UB, Dijon, France; (2) CIRAD, ES, Montpellier, France; (3) Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE), Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France; (4) UMR 228 ESPACE-DEV (IRD, UM2, UAG, UR), Saint Denis, France; (5) LETG-Rennes-COSTEL, UMR 6554 CNRS / Université de Rennes 2, Rennes, France; (6) LE2P, EA 4079, Université de La Réunion, Saint Denis, France; (7) Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, France, Geography, Aix-en-Provence, France; (8) LMD, UMR8539 CNRS / Université Paris 6, Paris, France

Abstract content

Global carbon, water and energy cycles are substantially driven by vegetation phenology. In particular tropical rainforests have been shown to be a key component of the climate system as they act as major water vapor sources and carbon dioxide sink. For these reasons their evolution in response to both human pressure and climate change is critical. As compared to the Amazonian and Asian rainforests, the rainforest of Central Africa experiences slower deforestation rates, so that its main threat for the next decades might come from climate change. So far, the response and sensitivity of the Central Africa rainforest to the mean seasonal evolution and inter-annual variability of climate has attracted little interest. Indeed, most of the studies focus on its Amazonian counterpart and suggest that solar irradiation is the main driver of the annual and inter-annual variations of rainforest photosynthetic activity, and the Central Africa climate itself is not well documented.

As a first step towards a better understanding of the Central Africa rainforest sensitivity to present-day climate variability and response to climate change, this study performs for a target region located between 0-5°N/12-19°E (thus documenting forest areas from 5 countries) and using space borne observations, a detailed analysis of the rainforest photosynthetic activity mean seasonal cycle comparing it with those of climate variables considered as potential drivers, i.e. rainfall, cloudiness and solar irradiation.

Several key points emerge from our study. First, the seasonal cycles of photosynthetic activity (EVI MODIS) and rainfall over our target region are both bimodal. However, the highest peak of EVI (March-May) coincides with the driest of the two rainy seasons while the lowest peak of EVI (September-October) coincides with the wettest of the two rainy seasons. Second, the two rainy seasons are not associated with two distinct lows in total solar irradiation and two distinct peaks in total cloudiness: the first rainy season (March-May) which is less rainy as compared to the second one (September-October), is also less cloudy and receives more total solar irradiation. This might explain the higher EVI values recorded. Third, the high total cloudiness recorded throughout the seasonal cycle actually hides marked seasonal variations in the frequency of the 5 main types of clouds analyzed. These cloud types have specific diurnal cycles which control those of solar irradiation (thus the daily light and energy available for photosynthesis), but also influence the remote sensed photosynthetic activity data (or index).

Our results clearly show that (1) nor the two dry seasons, nor the two rainy seasons do compare in terms of mean rainfall, cloudiness, solar irradiation and temperature, and (2) water and light availability have a respective weight in the Central Africa rainforest photosynthetic activity which evolves throughout the seasonal cycle. They also suggest that any evolution, due to climate change, of the complex diurnal cycles of rainfall, nebulosity and solar irradiation which characterize the equatorial climate regimes might perturb the rainforest phenology and enhance these ecosystems vulnerability.

GHG emissions and mitigation – a model approach for the Brazilian Amazon

J. Ometto (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), A. P. Aguiar, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), L. A. Martinelli, (University of Sao Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil), M. Bustamante (Universidade de Brasília, Brasilia, Brazil), T. Assis, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), E. D. Nora, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), F. S. Pacheco, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil)

Abstract details
GHG emissions and mitigation – a model approach for the Brazilian Amazon

J. Ometto (1) ; AP. Aguiar, (1) ; LA. Martinelli, (2) ; M. Bustamante (3) ; T. Assis, (1) ; ED. Nora, (1) ; FS. Pacheco, (1)
(1) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (2) University of Sao Paulo, Center for nuclear energy in agriculture, Piracicaba, Brazil; (3) Universidade de Brasília, Departamento de ecologia, Brasilia, Brazil

Abstract content

According to the recent scientific literature on the field, about 70% of the terrestrial sink of CO2 derived from anthropogenic activities resides in tropical forests. Of the tropical belt, the South America Amazon encompasses the largest continuous broadleaf forest in the globe. Estimates accounts more than 50% of the tropical carbon sink to these forests. Tropical deforestation accounts from about 1/10th to 1/5th of the global anthropogenic emissions of carbon and carbon equivalent green house gases. Big uncertainties associated to these estimates rely on the quantification of above and bellow ground living biomass in tropical forests and its spatial distribution. Adding up to the uncertainly on carbon emission estimates, the deforestation is not a linear process, but a patchy activity in the landscape, characterized by dynamic processes in both spatial and temporal dimension. Thereby, studies on carbon sources, sinks and stocks are urgent observational needs for both remote and ground observation in the tropics.

This paper will present recent studies coupling observation, remote and modeling approaches to better estimate green house gases emissions from tropical deforestation, with special focus on the Amazon forest. The result present outcomes of the INPE-EM model, developed at the National Institute for Space Research, in Brazil. This is a spatially explicit modeling framework that incorporates the deforestation dynamics, the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity of the region. As well, we will explore mitigation of greenhouse gases emissions within a sustainable development framework, in special associated to nutrient use and emissions of nitrous oxide. 

Bhabar Terai Forest Cover Reduction Causes Climate Change in the North Bank of the Brahmaputra Valley increased Severity in Flood

B.P. Saikia (Gauhati University, Guwahati, India)

Abstract details
Bhabar Terai Forest Cover Reduction Causes Climate Change in the North Bank of the Brahmaputra Valley increased Severity in Flood

BP. Saikia (1)
(1) Gauhati University, Centre for animal ecology and wildlife biology, department of zoology, Guwahati, India

Abstract content

During the last few decades floods in the Brahmaputra basin had been extremely of large magnitude and high frequency and there were heavy floods in Assam almost every alternate year. The fragile hills of the Himalayan Mountain range are prone to major landslides that are getting aggravated due to wide ranging deforestation, mining in the catchment, rampant construction of embankments and roads and cutting in the Brahmaputra basin.

We have examined the decadal change in the forest cover of the Brahmaputra basin from 1970-80’s to 2010 and compared with the increase in the level of flood severity, frequency and increasing level of the rising temperatures from the existing data sources and field survey on the North Bank of the river Brahmaputra.

During the period of the study this has been found that the decreasing forest cover has major role in the rising temperature and flood. On the entire North Bank of the River Brahmaputra on the foothills of Himalaya there have specialized zone of Bhabar Terai forest. This has been seen that where these Bhabar-Terai zone has been removed from the foothill the severity of the flooding has been increased with the decadal rise of temperature in such areas. The rate of rainfall has been found increasing in the last four decades but the number of the rainy days has been decreasing.

After the 1950 earthquake and following flood in the year 1954 the entire basin of the Brahmaputra river changed forever. With the many fold increase of human population in the Brahmaputra valley the conversion of the forest land into agricultural lands started in a faster rate and continued till the 1996 Supreme Court ban on the timber logging and any such activity. Along with this forest destruction the flood occurrence in the Brahmaputra basin has been observed from the year ’54, ’62, ’66, ’72, ’74, ’77, ’78, ’ 84, ’86, ’87, ‘88, ‘89, ‘90, ‘91,’92, ‘93, ‘94, ‘95, ‘96, ‘97, ‘98, ‘99, ‘2000, 2011, 2012 and 2013 and is still continuing. It has been revealed from the present study that the magnitude increased with time and frequency of flood increased which direct positive correlation with the decadal rise in temperature and negative correlation with the decadal forest cover change in the North Bank of the river Brahmaputra in Assam specially the Bhabar and Terai forest which acts as the cushion for the speeding rainwater on the foothills zone of the Himalaya in the basin. It has been evident from the present study that forest cover in the foothills zone are very much necessary for resisting the impact of climate change such as increasing temperature, rainfall and flood. Hence, the forest cover has been necessarily found related with the severity of flood thus helps in curbing climate change impact.

Potential of tropical rainforest microrefugia to sustain tropical biodiversity in Northeast Brazil

V. Montade (Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, UMR 5554 ISEM, Montpellier, France), M.-P. Ledru (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France), L. Bremond (Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, Montpellier, France), C. Favier (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Montpellier, France), C. F. Verola (Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil), I. R. Da Costa (Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil), I. J. S. Diogo (Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, Brazil), J. Burte (Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Tunis, Tunisia), E. S. P. R. Martins (Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos, Fortaleza, Brazil), F. H. Magalhães E Silva (Universidade do Estado da Bahia, Senhor do Bonfim, Brazil)

Abstract details
Potential of tropical rainforest microrefugia to sustain tropical biodiversity in Northeast Brazil

V. Montade (1) ; MP. Ledru (2) ; L. Bremond (3) ; C. Favier (4) ; CF. Verola (5) ; IR. Da Costa (5) ; IJS. Diogo (6) ; J. Burte (7) ; ESPR. Martins (8) ; FH. Magalhães E Silva (9)
(1) Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, UMR 5554 ISEM, Montpellier, France; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR 226 ISEM, Montpellier, France; (3) Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, Umr 5545 isem, Montpellier, France; (4) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Umr 5545 isem, Montpellier, France; (5) Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil; (6) Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, Brazil; (7) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Tunis, Tunisia; (8) Fundação Cearense de Meteorologia e Recursos Hídricos, Fortaleza, Brazil; (9) Universidade do Estado da Bahia, Senhor do Bonfim, Brazil

Abstract content

Although the Northeast Brazil is mainly characterized by a semi-arid climate that corresponds to the driest area of Brazil, a sub-humid climate persists in small mountainous areas close to the coast. Such very local climatic conditions enable the development of a highly diversified Neotropical rainforest that represents rainforest microrefugia surrounded by a xeric shrubland and thorn forest. Because these microrefugia are characterized by small areas with specific vegetation and microclimatic conditions, their potentials to sustain tropical biodiversity are generally underestimated within the future scenarios of climate change. In order to characterize the different communities and distributions of these rainforests we analyzed the present-day pollen rain in soil samples along an altitudinal gradient for several microrefugia from Northeast Brazil. We identified several ecological successions characterized by significant changes in rainforest assemblages whose distribution depends on water availability linked to several factors (e.g. elevation, slope, distance from the coast). To test their potential to sustain future tropical biodiversity we compared our calibration of pollen rain with fossil pollen data in one of these microrefugia. Despite the high sensitivity of rainforest to climatic variability evidenced by our study, the rainforest persisted and responded to past climate changes by recruiting key species among its highly diverse stock. Our results suggest that the high plant diversity of the microrefugium could play an important role in allowing the development of specific assemblages in response to different climatic conditions. Consequently, we demonstrate that identification and conservation of such microhabitats in the context of future climate change represent a crucial interest in policing the tropical biodiversity. 

Climatic implications of rainforest transformations in Nigeria: quantitative and qualitative approaches

S. Ayanlade (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria, Ile-Ife, Osun, France)

Abstract details
Climatic implications of rainforest transformations in Nigeria: quantitative and qualitative approaches

S. Ayanlade (1)
(1) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria, Dept. of Geography,, Ile-Ife, Osun, France

Abstract content

This study examines forest transformation in the rainforest of Nigeria, focusing on the drivers of forest change, the climatic and societal implications on the local people. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches were used. Remote sensing was used to perform quantitative analysis while social methods were used as qualitative approached to evaluate the spatial and temporal rate of deforestation. A time series of Landsat data was used over the period from 1984 to 2011. Remote sensing change detection methods were used to assess forest transformation in rainforest reserves in the study area. Two forest reserves, Okomu and Sakponba/Urhonigbe, were examined to have detail case studies of intensified deforestation within forest reserves. The implications of these changes on local climate around the forest reserves were assessed. Social survey data, questionnaires and interviews, were used to assess societal implications of forest transformation on local people in the study area. Ancillary data such as population data, road network data, and climate data were used to assess the drivers of forest transformation and their implications. Correlation analysis was performed to assess the relationship between deforestation and   population, road network, and surface temperature (ST) around the forest reserves. The results show that Okomu forest reserve nearly 50% of its area cover while Sakponba/Urhonigbe forest reserves loss about 90%. There are good relationship between deforestation and distance from road (R2= 0.52), also between population and deforestation with a correlation (R2)  of 0.48. There appears to be a significant relationship between change forest cover and surface temperature with R2= 0.46. Thus, the major finding of this study is that a major cause of deforestation in the rainforest is a result of increased accessibility created by road network. Forest reserve with high rate of road accessibility has high rate of deforestation compared to the forest reserve with less road network. The results from this study also show that increased population appears to be driving people to access these forest areas, that the relationship between population and deforestation relatively significant. The major implication of deforestation on local climate is that ST tends to increase as the rate of deforestation increases. Area with high forest cover tends to experience low ST while area with high rate of deforestation appears to have high ST. The results from social survey show that the drivers of forest transformation in the rainforest of Nigeria are multifaceted. Such drivers include the influence of human activities such as communal and commercial logging, which are enhanced by high and rapidly increasing population, and accessibility to forest reserves through road transportation network. Corruption, lack of political will and unenforced environmental laws are other major drivers, though these are not easily understood in the study area because of lack of accurate data about them. This study is important to both governments and local people to see the need for better forest conservation.

 

Estimating and Forecasting Carbon Stocks in Indian Tropical Forests using the LiDAR Technology

M. Réjou-Méchain (French Institute of Pondicherry, Pondicherry, India), F. Munoz (French Institute of Pondicherry, Pondicherry, India), N. Ayyappan (French Institute of Pondicherry, Pondicherry, India), C. Véga, (French Institute of Pondicherry, Pondicherry, India), J. Morel, (French Institute of Pondicherry, Pondicherry, India), P. Grard (French Institute of Pondicherry, Pondicherry, India)

Abstract details
Estimating and Forecasting Carbon Stocks in Indian Tropical Forests using the LiDAR Technology

M. Réjou-Méchain (1) ; F. Munoz (1) ; N. Ayyappan (1) ; C. Véga, (1) ; J. Morel, (1) ; P. Grard (1)
(1) French Institute of Pondicherry, Pondicherry, India

Abstract content

Tropical forests play a major role in the cycle of terrestrial carbon, being at the same time both sinks and sources of atmospheric CO2. It is estimated that around 40% of forest carbon is contained in the above-ground biomass of trees, the stock of which, at the global scale, varies mainly through reforestation and deforestation. Monitoring the stocks of forest biomass is therefore a major issue for the reduction of uncertainties associated with the overall assessment of carbon. International political institutions are therefore increasingly demanding for an effective decrease in the uncertainties associated with the estimation of these stocks. The conferences of the United Nations on climate changes, the next one of which will be held in Paris in 2015 (COP21), have as a main objective to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to limit global warming. Each country is invited, on a voluntary basis, to quantify the stocks and flows of forest carbons in their territory. In south and south-east Asia, huge progress has been made in this area in the past decade, with good level research and technical competencies. However, the quality of works remains variable, and the efforts are made at the national scale with very little exchanges of knowledge and know-how between institutions of different countries. This isolation considerably limits the emergence of international standards in the monitoring of stocks of forest carbon. Developing new methods for monitoring forest carbon, widening ongoing works and stimulating exchanges of knowledge and know-how with regard to the monitoring of forest carbon stocks in south Asia, are some of the main objectives of the French Institute of Pondicherry (FIP) in South India. The emergence of methodologies that capitalize on the products of remote sensing is a major advance in the mapping of forest biomass at a large spatial scale. The mapping of forest carbon via remote sensing tools is therefore rightly foreseen as a cornerstone of the MRV systems (Measuring, Reporting and Verification) that are promoted by the UN-REDD (United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) programme. Yet, the quality of products generated by remote sensing tools depends to a very great extent on the quality of field and remote sensing data that are used. This explains in part the strong inconsistencies that exist between the different forest carbon maps published recently at the world or pantropical scale. For example, in south and south-east Asia, these inconsistencies are sometimes of the same order of magnitude as the values indicated in the maps. During the past few years, the FIP has invested a great deal in the processing of remote sensing data, and in particular of the data generated by the very promising LiDAR technology (airborne or terrestrial laser). These new technologies allow unprecedented measures of forest structures with a centimetre-level resolution through entire landscapes. Furthermore, the FIP has monitored forest dynamics in permanent forest plots at Uppangala, in the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, for more than 20 years. Coupling detailed information on forest dynamics with airbone and terrestrial LiDAR data opens promising perspectives to understand and forecast with high precision the ability of tropical forests to stock carbon.

Evidence of Ecological Resilience Clusters to climate typology in the Amazon Rainforest: a methodological proposal

L. Martorano (s/nº, Belem, Brazil), L. Lisboa, (ESALQ, Piracicaba, Brazil), R. Muniz, (ESALQ, Piracicaba, Brazil), E. Sotta, (Embrapa, Amapá, Brazil), N. E. S. Beltrão (UEPA, Belém, Brazil)

Abstract details
Evidence of Ecological Resilience Clusters to climate typology in the Amazon Rainforest: a methodological proposal

L. Martorano (1) ; L. Lisboa, (2) ; R. Muniz, (2) ; E. Sotta, (3) ; NES. Beltrão (4)
(1) s/nº, Agrometeorology/modelling, Belem, Brazil; (2) ESALQ, Piracicaba, Brazil; (3) Embrapa, Amapá, Brazil; (4) UEPA, Belém, Brazil

Abstract content

Resilience is usually defined as the capacity of an ecosystem to absorb disturbance without shifting to an alternative state and losing function and services. This concept encompasses three distinct processes: resistance, the magnitude of disturbance and the speed of return to the original structure, which are fundamentally different but rarely distinguished. Successfully increasing the resilience of natural systems may therefore have important implications for human welfare in global climate change scenarios. Forest areas contribute in maintaining the moisture due to evapotranspiration exchanges. Severe droughts and periods with diverse anthropogenic pressures are threatening the ecological resilience in the Amazon region. This research intended to identify the areas with a differentiated resilience capacity in the Brazilian Amazon. Some climate data were used in this study, such as: annual rainfall, total rainfall during the less rainy trimester, total rainfall below 100 and 60 mm, minimum air temperature and vapour pressure deficit. We used biophysical data (NDVI, GPP, FPAR and LAI) to assess the temporal response of vegetation in order to express the effects of seasonal conditions and variations in weather and climate conditions. The biophysical data were obtained from the MODIS satellite, and the altitude data was provided by TOPODATA. The data integration was performed based in the correlation analysis for detecting redundancies between variables. Since the original data were highly correlated, we used the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify which variables should be incorporated in the assessments of areas with ecological resilience. The year of 2005 was used due to the strong El Niño as well as the high deforestation records of the year 2004. The year of 2013 was our reference as average climate conditions. The first component to generate the maps was able to clarify 40.5% (2005) and 41.7% (2013). We have considered climate typology and resilience in the Brazilian Amazon as reference in the evaluation of these ecological thresholds by integrating the variables in ArcGIS.We were able to identify 8 zones with ecological features of transitional, which indicates the distinctions in their climate resilience. Analysing the years 2005 and 2013, it is clear that different climate typologies were rebuilt after the 2005 severe drought. The positive values in 2013 indicate that same classes have been recovered in eight years showing zones with differentiated resilience capabilities. These differentiated resilience capabilities may be associated to the effect of anthropogenic land-use change, but overall to natural ecological resilience of the Native Forest. The results indicate that the 17.2% increase in areas with high rainfall in the far west Amazon, in 8 years, indicate the great capacity of recovery of this native forests (with ecological resilience in the range of 0.7 to 0.8). The proposed methodology evidence that the response of biophysical variables from satellite information combined with typological climate conditions allow us to differentiate the diversity in resilience ecological capacity of the Amazon. 

Congo Basin forests under pressure: the role of increasing population and strong international palm oil demand

A. Mosnier, (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), J. Pirker (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), G. Bocqueho, (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), R. Mant (UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom), B. Bodin, (UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom), D. Bokelo, (COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon), A. Makoudjou, (COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon), R. Ndinga, (COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon), P. Tonga, (COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon), P. Havlik (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), M. Obersteiner (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria)

Abstract details
Congo Basin forests under pressure: the role of increasing population and strong international palm oil demand

A. Mosnier, (1) ; J. Pirker (1) ; G. Bocqueho, (1) ; R. Mant (2) ; B. Bodin, (2) ; D. Bokelo, (3) ; A. Makoudjou, (3) ; R. Ndinga, (3) ; P. Tonga, (3) ; P. Havlik (1) ; M. Obersteiner (1)
(1) IIASA, Ecosystems services and management, Laxenburg, Austria; (2) UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (3) COMIFAC, Yaounde, Cameroon

Abstract content

The Congo Basin forest is the second largest rainforest area after the Amazon forest but contrary to the latter, it has been relatively preserved up to now. However, pressure on the Congo Basin forests is increasing with high population growth, large economic development needs and new opportunities from global markets, increasing the chances of future emissions from deforestation. Understanding the main drivers of deforestation and their evolution in the next decades can support the development of policies compatible with development objectives and the REDD+ initiative, which many countries of the region have joined. On the one hand, the majority of the population continues to depend on subsistence agriculture and informal natural resources exploitation for their livelihoods and the viability of such practices in the context of higher population density is questioned. On the other hand, large-scale forest and agricultural concessions driven by foreign investments and supported by the States are also flourishing in the region to take opportunity of growing international demand. Global palm oil production has more than doubled over the last decade and ambitious palm oil production targets are now included in the development strategy of the Congo basin countries.

We use the land use economic model CongoBIOM to explore projections of future land use in the Congo Basin, including the role of shifting agriculture and plantation expansion. CongoBIOM is adapted from GLOBIOM which represents land-based activities and land use changes at a 50x50km resolution level. It includes domestic and international demand for crops, livestock products and wood products. In the Congo Basin, the model represents deforestation from forest conversion to both subsistence and intensive agriculture and also from intensive fuel wood harvests. Forest degradation is caused by logging activities. We have built a global oil palm suitability map to improve the model representation of future oil palm expansion. Results are presented for the whole Congo Basin and in more details for three countries -Cameroon, the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo- to illustrate the variety of challenges the region will face to protect its forests and ensure economic development. We compute emissions from future land use change and test their sensitivity to several model parameters including future population and economic growth, and land carbon content from different sources (IPCC, FAO-FRA, NASA and WHRC).

From our results, deforestation over the next decades increases strongly in the Congo Basin: the average annual deforested area is 60% higher over 2010-2020 and 123% higher over 2020-2030 compared to the historical rate 2000-2010. The region doubles its palm oil production over 2000-2030 and also more than double exports but a high share of the total production is used to satisfy rapidly increasing domestic needs. More generally, we observe that future agricultural expansion in the Congo Basin is mainly driven by internal demand. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon will experience the highest pressures from the agricultural sector while in the Republic of Congo pressures on the forests will mainly come from timber exploitation. Since uncertainties in the carbon content of the forest land are quite important in the region, they lead to significant variations of emissions from deforestation in our computation. The Congo Basin countries represent an important challenge for the REDD+ framework as i) historical deforestation rate is not very informative to set-up Congo Basin countries’ reference levels for future emissions from deforestation and ii) REDD+ policies will need to reach scattered and remote subsistence farmers to allow them satisfying their needs without destroying the forest.  

The AmazonFACE research program: assessing the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on the ecology and resilience of the Amazon forest

D. Lapola (Universidade Estadual Paulista, Rio Claro, Brazil), C. A. N. Quesada (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Brazil), R. J. Norby, (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States of America), A. C. Araújo (Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária, Belem, Brazil), T. Domingues (Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil), I. Hartley (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), B. Kruijt (Alterra, wageningen UR, Wageningen, Netherlands), K. Lewin (Brookhaven National Laboratory, Long Island, United States of America), P. Meir (University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom), A. Rammig (Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforshung, Potsdam, Germany), A. Walker (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States of America), J. Ometto (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil)

Abstract details
The AmazonFACE research program: assessing the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 on the ecology and resilience of the Amazon forest

D. Lapola (1) ; CAN. Quesada (2) ; RJ. Norby, (3) ; AC. Araújo (4) ; T. Domingues (5) ; I. Hartley (6) ; B. Kruijt (7) ; K. Lewin (8) ; P. Meir (9) ; A. Rammig (10) ; A. Walker (11) ; J. Ometto (12)
(1) Universidade Estadual Paulista, Rio Claro, Brazil; (2) Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia, Manaus, Brazil; (3) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental sciences division and climate change sciences institute, Oak Ridge, TN, United States of America; (4) Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária, Belem, Brazil; (5) Universidade de São Paulo, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil; (6) University of Exeter, Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, Exeter, United Kingdom; (7) Alterra, wageningen UR, Wageningen, Netherlands; (8) Brookhaven National Laboratory, Long Island, United States of America; (9) University of Edinburgh, School of geosciences, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; (10) Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforshung, Potsdam, Germany; (11) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States of America; (12) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil

Abstract content

Despite being suggested, for nearly 20 years now, as a process of utter importance for the resilience of the Amazon forest and maintenance of the global carbon cycle, the existence, magnitude and duration of a supposed “CO2 fertilization” effect in tropical forests remains largely undetermined. Reducing this uncertainty is critical to the future of the Amazon region as well as for global assessments of ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. In this presentation we will introduce the AmazonFACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) research program, an experiment of unprecedented scope and importance in a primary, old-growth forest of the Amazon basin near Manaus, Brazil – the first of this kind in a tropical forest. The experiment will simulate an atmospheric CO2 composition of the future in order to help answer the question: “How will rising atmospheric CO2 affect the resilience of the Amazon forest, the biodiversity it harbors, and the ecosystem services it provides in light of projected climatic changes?” Amazon-FACE is divided in three phases: (I) pre-experimental ecological characterization of the research site (Jun.2014-Nov.2015); (II) pilot experiment comprised of two 30-m diameter plots, being one maintained with atmospheric [CO2] at +200ppmv and the other with ambient CO2 concentration (Dec.2015-Nov.2017); (III) fully-replicated long-term experiment comprised of four pairs of FACE plots maintained at ambient or elevated CO2 concentrations for 10 years (Dec.2017-Nov.2027). The forest inside these plots will be scientifically scrutinized from the top-most canopy leaves to the deepest roots in terms of carbon metabolism and cycling, water use, nutrient cycling, forest community composition, and interactions with environmental stressors. A multi-disciplinary team of scientists namely from Brazil, USA and Europe will employ state-of-the-art tools from deep in the soil to above the forest canopy. The resulting data sets will be valuable resources for a broad community of scientists, especially for ecosystem and climate modelers.

Land use changes and emissions from deforestation in Guatemala: advances and challenges to prepare this Central American country for REDD+

E. Castellanos (Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala, Guatemala), D. Fernandez (Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala, Guatemala), G. Fuentes, (Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala, Guatemala)

Abstract details
Land use changes and emissions from deforestation in Guatemala: advances and challenges to prepare this Central American country for REDD+

E. Castellanos (1) ; D. Fernandez (1) ; G. Fuentes, (1)
(1) Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad, Guatemala, Guatemala

Abstract content

In spite of the fact that Guatemala is consistently listed as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, adaptation needs and gaps have not been the focus of governmental and non-governmental organizations dealing with climate change issues.  Rather, most of the work on climate change for the last 15 years has focused on capitalizing on the potential for income from international sources derived from carbon-offset projects, first as part of the Clean Develop Mechanism CDM and more recently as part of avoided deforestation initiatives.

 

Our research group has accompanied this process for the last 15 years and this paper will present the most important advances in terms of producing the hard data needed to show recent deforestation and reforestation trends in the country, as well as advances in defining the governance system required to implement the National Strategy Against Deforestation which is the basis for REDD+ initiatives in the country.

 

We first discuss forest cover change information for Guatemala, where we observe a steady drop in the net deforestation rate from a high value of 1.7% measured for the period 1991-2001, to 1.3% for 2001-2006, to 1.0% for 2006-2010.  This drop is not a result of a drop in the gross amount of cleared forest.  Rather, it is a result of an increase in the forest regenerated, which includes new plantations and forest regenerating after disturbances such as fires and as secondary growth in abandoned agricultural fields.  This is in part the result of a successful incentive program by the central government both for large and small holders (PINFOR and PINPEP), which provides monetary incentives for people and communities who plant new forests or preserve existing forest cover.  Ironically, these programs have not been able to generate a single carbon credit because of problems demonstrating additionality.

 

In terms of the governance needed to reduce deforestation and to generate marketable carbon credits, this paper describes various significant advances in recent years.  A climate change law was passed in 2013, which mandates the implementation of a series of policies to reduce and compensate emissions from sectors such as energy, industry and transportation.  It includes some provisions to create a national registry for carbon-offset projects, which could set the basis for the development of an internal carbon trading system.

 

Beyond these national initiatives, many sectors within the country, including several government offices, are very actively pursuing the development and implementation of REDD+ initiatives to attract international investments.  We will describe some of the governing issues under discussion, particularly the intergovernmental coordination needed to implement a proper Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system and the discussions around the fair distribution of potential income from avoided deforestation projects in protected areas between the communities implementing the activities to reduce deforestation and the central government who is the legal owner of the land and therefore of the carbon credits to be generated.  This of course has been a difficult issue to negotiate, which has resulted in tension between the communities and the central government.

 

Many of these issues and challenges are typical of situations encountered in developing countries around the world that have been pursuing the elusive goal of bringing in enough funding to reduce or stop their deforestation problems. Unfortunately, even after many years of work, international markets for carbon credits appear to be unreachable to communities in need of funds to improve their adapting capacites.  National carbon markets may prove to be a more feasible solution.

Conservativeness and technical corrections foster broad participation and advanced reporting standards for REDD+

D. Plugge (Institute for World Forestry, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany), T. Baldauf (Institute for World Forestry, Hamburg, Germany), M. Köhl (Institute for World Forestry, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract details
Conservativeness and technical corrections foster broad participation and advanced reporting standards for REDD+

D. Plugge (1) ; T. Baldauf (2) ; M. Köhl (1)
(1) Institute for World Forestry, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; (2) Institute for World Forestry, Johann heinrich von thünen institut, Hamburg, Germany

Abstract content

The proposed presentation deals with one of the main issues for scientists and policy makers regarding the combat against global climate change in the realm of tropical forests: the realization of a credible mechanism to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+).

One of the major topics within building the framework for REDD+ are uncertainties associated to estimating reduced emissions via a measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) system. IPCC requires applying the principle of conservativeness to address these uncertainties (IPCC 2006) by constructing a reliability interval around a carbon stock estimate and utilize the lower bound of the interval for reporting. This, however, can have severe consequences to countries that are willing to participate in the REDD+. Despite successfully reducing emissions, some countries may have little to no chance of achieving benefits from REDD+ due to high uncertainties and the application of the principle of conservativeness (Köhl et al. 2009, Plugge and Köhl 2012, Plugge et al. 2013). In consequence, this would preclude many countries from participating in REDD+. Broad participation is, however, one important prerequisite to make the mechanism a success, e.g. to reduce undesired displacement of emissions (leakage) as explicitly mentioned in the safeguards (UNFCCC 2011) or to achieve the overall 2°C goal. Consequently, to be able to participate in REDD+, countries need to implement higher MRV and reporting systems standards (Tier 2 or Tier 3). At the moment most countries are not in a situation to meet these high standards due to (among others) capacity or costs constraints.

In this study we identify a way of how to overcome the consequences that uncertainties and the principle of conservativeness may have with regard to the participation of countries in the mechanism. To lower the entry threshold for countries interested in REDD+, recent discussions (Grassi et al. 2013) involve the option of temporarily reducing the strictness of reporting and applying a discount for uncertainties. The study analyzes the effectiveness of this proposal for two accounting periods. Our results confirm that by lowering the entry threshold participation is fostered and benefits from reducing emissions are achieved by the countries. However, at the same time our results show that countries would make a profit by maintaining low reporting standards with associated high uncertainty. Nevertheless, continuously advancing in the MRV and reporting standards is a prerequisite for participation in REDD+. To overcome this discrepancy we propose to allow for adopting technical corrections implemented in the Kyoto Protocol also for REDD+ reporting. Technical corrections are used for a backward recalculation of reported values when the MRV and reporting standards have been improved towards higher standards. We show that by including technical corrections countries profit more than by maintaining low standards. Therefore, the combination of conservativeness and technical corrections represents a coherent solution to promote reliable and advanced reporting, foster broad participation, and achieve benefits from REDD+.

IPCC. IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Hayama, Japan, 2006).

Köhl, M. Baldauf, T. Plugge, D. & Krug, J. Reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD): a climate change mitigation strategy on a critical track, Carbon Balance and Management 4 (2009).

Plugge, D. & Köhl, M. Estimating carbon emissions from forest degradation: implications of uncertainties and area sizes for a REDD+ MRV system, Can. J. For. Res. 42, (2012).

Plugge, D. Baldauf, T. & Köhl, M. The global climate change mitigation strategy REDD: monitoring costs and uncertainties jeopardize economic benefits, Climatic Change 119, (2013).

UNFCCC. Report of the Conference of the Parties on its sixteenth session. Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its sixteenth session. Decision 1/CP16 (2011).

Grassi, G. Federici, S. & Achard, F. Implementing conservativeness in REDD+ is realistic and useful to address the most uncertain estimates, Climatic Change 119, (2013).

Drivers of deforestation in REDD+ countries: Results from a pan-tropical remote sensing analysis

V. De Sy (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), M. Herold (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), F. Achard (Joint Research Centre (JRC), ISPRA , Italy), R. Beuchle, (Joint Research Centre (JRC), ISPRA , Italy), S. Besnard, (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), J. Clevers, (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), E. Lindquist, (Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, Italy), L. Verchot (CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia), A. Wijaya, (CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia)

Abstract details
Drivers of deforestation in REDD+ countries: Results from a pan-tropical remote sensing analysis

V. De Sy (1) ; M. Herold (1) ; F. Achard (2) ; R. Beuchle, (2) ; S. Besnard, (1) ; J. Clevers, (1) ; E. Lindquist, (3) ; L. Verchot (4) ; A. Wijaya, (4)
(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (2) Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for environment and sustainability (ies) forest resources, ISPRA , Italy; (3) Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, Italy; (4) CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Abstract content

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), negotiations are ongoing to build a framework for reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and to enhance forest carbon stocks in (sub)tropical non-annex I countries (REDD+). The UNFCCC considers addressing the drivers of deforestation and degradation crucial for the development and implementation of national REDD+ strategies and action plans, and encourages REDD+ countries to identify drivers and activities causing forest carbon emissions. Monitoring and tracking human activities that result in forest carbon change (e.g. deforestation by agricultural expansion, mining etc.) is crucial. Earth Observation data can be used to derive information on follow-up land use which generates understanding about proximate causes and drivers of deforestation. This research assesses and quantifies deforestation drivers in South America, Africa and Southeast Asia in a systematic manner, building on the 2010 global Remote Sensing Survey of the FAO Forest Resource Assessment. Deforestation drivers are assessed by visual interpretation of forest change patches depicted from satellite imagery to derive follow-up land use of deforestation from 1990 to 2005. This allows to quantify the proportion of deforestation drivers which are then used to assess forest carbon emissions per driver. The focus for this conference will be on presenting the spatial distribution, trends and trajectories of regionally specific drivers of deforestation and associated carbon emissions. 

The action of indigenous peoples of the Amazon and the political economy of environmental change

D. Delgado Pugley (Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain, Belgium)

Abstract details
The action of indigenous peoples of the Amazon and the political economy of environmental change

D. Delgado Pugley (1)
(1) Université Catholique de Louvain, Etudes du développement, Louvain, Belgium

Abstract content

This communication aims to analyse the attempts to reform land and resources management policies that emanate from the global climate regime and concern the Upper Amazon region. It examines some of the coalitions, alliances, and negotiation strategies that have accompanied and shaped the process of climate change politics from the preparation of COP 15 in Copenhagen (2009) to the preparation of COP 21 in Paris (2015).  Using a form of multi-sited ethnography, it compares and contrasts the involvement in REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries) negotiations of two transnational movements: the indigenous peoples movement, and the forest conservation coalitions. How do indigenous peoples of the Amazon region have occupied the political space created by climate change negotiations? Have they succeeded in gainning recognition and better access to resources and services within national boundaries? Do states, environmental organizations and indigenous peoples have found ways to avoid deforestation?  

By following key mobilization processes of indigenous peoples during the period studied (2010-2014) in Peru, Colombia and Bolivia this paper aims to show the impact that indigenous peoples already have as political actors in the conservation of Amazonia. This comunications aims to contribute to the understanding of the role of indigenous social movements in normative global orders by focusing on the way this political realm transforms the relationship between the "human" and "the environment" engaging non state actors on this task.

Land-use protection for climate change mitigation

H. Lotze-Campen (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Potsdam, Germany), A. Popp (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), F. Humpenoeder (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), I. Weindl (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), B. Bodirsky (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), M. Bonsch (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), C. Müller (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), A. Biewald (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), S. Rolinski (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), M. Stevanovic (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), J. Dietrich (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Land-use protection for climate change mitigation

H. Lotze-Campen (1) ; A. Popp (2) ; F. Humpenoeder (3) ; I. Weindl (2) ; B. Bodirsky (2) ; M. Bonsch (2) ; C. Müller (2) ; A. Biewald (2) ; S. Rolinski (2) ; M. Stevanovic (4) ; J. Dietrich (2)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research, Potsdam, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, Germany; (4) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD3 Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Land-use change, mainly the conversion of tropical forests to agricultural land, is a massive source of carbon emissions and contributes substantially to global warming [1]. The future development of forest area is uncertain, but deforestation is projected to persist as a significant emission source in the absence of new forest conservation policies, especially under increasing demand for agricultural commodities.  Despite the general scientific agreement on environmental benefits of forest conservation, and although the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has affirmed the potential role of forests in stabilizing the global climate, no global action has yet emerged to conserve natural forests. One key issue for the implementation of REDD (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation) is how to address leakage of emissions [2]. Without full participation of all countries in a forest conservation scheme, emission reductions in one location could result in increased emissions elsewhere, as agricultural expansion, the main driver for deforestation, could just be displaced rather than avoided (international leakage). However, carbon leakage is not only relevant in the context of regionalized forest protection efforts. Another risk associated with a global REDD scheme that so far has not been quantified in the literature is the shift of land-use pressures to non-forest ecosystems (non-forest leakage), simply because they are the only remaining resource for agricultural expansion. Such ecosystems may also be rich in carbon. First, areas under natural vegetation other than forests, such as shrublands and savannas, can also store considerable amounts of aboveground carbon. Second, carbon-rich soils also play a major part in the terrestrial carbon balance and have to be taken into consideration. For this reason, carbon stocks decline strongly after land is converted from grasslands and pastures to cropland. Finally, agricultural activity can reduce carbon sequestration by preventing regrowth of natural vegetation on abandoned agricultural land.

In this study, we estimate land-use and associated carbon stock dynamics for different global terrestrial carbon policies at global and regional scale using the land-use optimization model MAgPIE (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impacts on the Environment) [3, 4]. We show that a global forest policy could reduce carbon emissions by 77 Gt CO2, but would still allow for decreases in carbon stocks of non-forest land by 96 Gt CO2 until 2100 due to non-forest leakage effects. Furthermore, abandonment of agricultural land and associated carbon uptake through vegetation regrowth is hindered. Effective mitigation measures thus require financing structures and conservation investments that cover the full range of carbon-rich ecosystems. However, our analysis indicates that greater agricultural productivity increases would be needed to compensate for such restrictions on agricultural expansion.

 

References

  1. Houghton, R. A. et al. Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change. Biogeosciences 9, 51255142 (2012).
  2. Lambin, E. F. & Meyfroidt, P. Global land use change, economic globalization, and the looming land scarcity. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 34653472 (2011).
  3. Lotze-Campen, H. et al. Global food demand, productivity growth, and the scarcity of land and water resources: A spatially explicit mathematical programming approach. Agric. Econ. 39, 325338 (2008).
  4. Popp, A. et al. Land use protection for climate change mitigation. Nature Climate Change 4, 1095–1098 (2014)

Framework for Assessing Proximate Drivers, Agents, and Underlying Causes of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in REDD-plus Demonstration Sites in the Philippines

L. Bugayong (Forestry Development Center, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines), P. Dolom, (Forestry Development Center, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines), H. L. Capinpin, (Forestry Development Center, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines), J. Nicmic, (Forestry Development Center, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines), A. Carandang, (Forestry Development Center, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines)

Abstract details
Framework for Assessing Proximate Drivers, Agents, and Underlying Causes of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in REDD-plus Demonstration Sites in the Philippines

L. Bugayong (1) ; P. Dolom, (1) ; HL. Capinpin, (1) ; J. Nicmic, (1) ; A. Carandang, (1)
(1) Forestry Development Center, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, UPLB, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines

Abstract content

International negotiations on REDD+ under the UNFCCC led to the COP-19 agreement to encourage countries to take action to reduce the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation. In order to define specific strategies for REDD+ and related measures, an analysis of drivers of deforestation and forest degradation is required for the DENR-GIZ project National REDD+ System Philippines. The study used the ASEAN Regional Knowledge Network’s Decision Support Tool for identifying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in two REDD+ demonstration sites in Eastern Samar and Davao Oriental, Philippines. An analysis of the forest cover change between 2003 and 2010 using available maps and official statistics was made. Carbon stock change analysis was done to determine the carbon stocks and emissions of identified land uses. The agents, proximate drivers and underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation were identified through key informant interviews and focus group discussions. A participatory discussion and identification of priority proximate drivers through stakeholder-identified criteria resulted in a relative ranking of the drivers that need to be addressed by the project. Results of the field data gathered were subjected to further analysis to come up with opportunity costs of converting natural forest to other land uses. The results of this study will serve as inputs in the planning of strategies to address the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the REDD-plus demonstration sites.

Ensuring community benefits; case study of REDD+ in Ghana

A.-R. Saeed (University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Ensuring community benefits; case study of REDD+ in Ghana

AR. Saeed (1)
(1) University of Reading, Geography and Environmental Science, Reading, United Kingdom

Abstract content

In the last decade, United Nations negotiations have been on going on using forests to mitigate climate change via the mechanism known as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus the added value of conservation, enhancement of forest carbon stocks and sustainable forest management (REDD+). With support from organisations like the World Bank and the collaborative efforts of UNDP, UNEP and FAO, forest countries across the globe have started to get REDD+ ready. Getting REDD+ ready includes running pilot projects and implementing other readiness initiatives to feed into the systems and strategies countries are laying out for REDD+ and to reform already existing climate and forest governance institutions. The purpose of this research is to understand how local communities harness such new carbon economy opportunities (or not). The study is a multi-sited case study approach in Ghana employing systematic literature review, semi-structured interviews, actor mapping, focus groups and document analysis as the main methods of identifying what can be learnt at the international level from the local level implementation of such carbon mechanisms. 

An Algorithm to Harmonize Different Sources of Land Use Information: Building a New Land Use Map for Brazil

A. X. Y. Carvalho (Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasilia, Brazil), G. Câmara, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), M. Buurman (Institute for Geoinformatics at the University of Münster (IFGI), Münster, Germany), F. M. Ramos (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), A. Soterroni (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil), R. C. M. Souza (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil)

Abstract details
An Algorithm to Harmonize Different Sources of Land Use Information: Building a New Land Use Map for Brazil

AXY. Carvalho (1) ; G. Câmara, (2) ; M. Buurman (3) ; FM. Ramos (2) ; A. Soterroni (2) ; RCM. Souza (2)
(1) Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brasilia, Brazil; (2) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil; (3) Institute for Geoinformatics at the University of Münster (IFGI), Münster, Germany

Abstract content

The last decades have witnessed an increasing use of land use models for several purposes, including policy evaluation and land use prediction. In general, these models try to capture the dynamics of different land cover and use classes, on a geographic grid, over sequential periods. Having a good input base map, with well estimated starting areas for the considered land use and cover classes, is important for the models to properly represent future shifts in land use dynamics. On the other hand, building a good land use input map involves combining information from different sources. In many situations, it is necessary to combine data from satellite images and data from property surveys. This is the case when one builds land use models for Brazil: in general, it is necessary to take into account information collected by the Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and combine this data to satellite images for land use, and to vector maps for protected areas.

 

Combining information from different sources may not be straightforward, because of inconsistencies caused by measurement errors, remote sensing image precision, and discrepancies for when information was collected, for example. In this paper, we present an innovative methodology, named Minimum Distance Allocation Method (MDAM), to help build a consistent map, based on the combination of different sources of data. The proposed algorithm is based on a minimization problem, according to which property survey data can be allocated to overlapping or surrounding model geographic units. Optimization restrictions are specified so as to avoid assigning crop, pasture or planted forest area to a model geographic unit located completely inside a preserved park, for example. Based on the proposed methodology, we constructed a new base map for Brazil, to be an input into the GLOBIOM land use model. In the end, we obtained estimates for number of animals (bovines), pasture area, planted forest area, area and production for different crops, per simulation unit. Although the exercise was performed to prepare inputs for GLOBIOM, the reader will find the MDAM general enough, so that it can be employed to prepare consistent input base maps for any land use model. 

The development of FOREST: a Fully Optimised and Reliable EmissionS Tool

N. Barbier (IRD-UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France), A. Barker (National Physics Lab, Teddington, United Kingdom), P. Bicheron (Airbus Defence and Space, Toulouse, France), A.-C. Capel (ONF International, Paris, France), N. Chenet (ONF International, Paris, France), M. Deheza (CDC Climat Research, Paris, France), C. Mathian (Airbus Defense and Space, Toulouse, France), F. Maignan (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnment, Gif sur Yvette, France), N. Najdovski (Montana State University, Bozeman, United States of America), J. Nightingale (National Physics Lab, Teddington, United Kingdom), A. Nouillas (Airbus Defence and Space, Toulouse, France), N. Origo (National Physics Lab, Teddington, United Kingdom), F. Von Poncet (Airbus Defence and Space, Friedrichshafen, Germany), B. Poulter (Montana State University, Bozeman, United States of America), M. Rageade (ONF International, Paris, France), M. Schlund (Airbus Defence and Space, Friedrichshafen, Germany)

Abstract details
The development of FOREST: a Fully Optimised and Reliable EmissionS Tool

N. Barbier (1) ; A. Barker (2) ; P. Bicheron (3) ; AC. Capel (4) ; N. Chenet (4) ; M. Deheza (5) ; C. Mathian (6) ; F. Maignan (7) ; N. Najdovski (8) ; J. Nightingale (2) ; A. Nouillas (3) ; N. Origo (2) ; F. Von Poncet (9) ; B. Poulter (8) ; M. Rageade (4) ; M. Schlund (9)
(1) IRD-UMR AMAP, Montpellier, France; (2) National Physics Lab, Earth observations, Teddington, United Kingdom; (3) Airbus Defence and Space, Toulouse, France; (4) ONF International, Climate department, Paris, France; (5) CDC Climat Research, Paris, France; (6) Airbus Defense and Space, Toulouse, France; (7) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnment, Gif sur Yvette, France; (8) Montana State University, Ecosystem dynamics lab, Bozeman, United States of America; (9) Airbus Defence and Space, Geo-information services, Friedrichshafen, Germany

Abstract content

The objective of this poster is to present the different scientific components of the FOREST (Fully Optimised and Reliable EmissionS Tool) project that gathers since 2014 the expertise of seven European institutions working together thanks to funding provided by the project funded by the EIT- Climate KIC.

The FOREST project aims to positively respond to the growing demand of forest carbon stakeholders for trusted, fully integrated and cost effective Measuring Reporting Verification (MRV) service components, enabling forest carbon projects and initiatives to achieve carbon goals, i.e. emission reduction and/or stock enhancement. It brings essential building blocks for such services including the observations from space, the local in-situ ground measurements to calibrate these observations, the forest maps and the theoretical model needed to estimate and manage the carbon sequestrated in forested areas. By providing cost effective capacities driven by market and end users, the project will improve the process of MRV for forest carbon at project/national scale.

Remote sensing by satellite is a practical way to get large geographical and ideally global information about forests, especially in remote regions that are difficult to access.

Satellite imagery, optical and radar, is used to basically determine land cover/use and land cover/use changes and to map forests. It provides essential information that is used:

o to establish historical forest maps

o to feed carbon model

o to design / optimize sampling scheme

o to understand drivers of deforestation & degradation

o to measure performance of projects and effectiveness of public policies

Although pre-operational solutions exist, some issues such as the lack of standardization, the overall cost (transaction and implementation) or the overall achievable quality & reliability can hamper the development of the forest projects and undermine market attractiveness.

There is considerable room for improving existing methods and to design innovative solutions, for developing solutions that bring effective value to money, for tackling pending issues that are key priorities in the international negotiations such as degradation monitoring.

The FOREST partners are currently working on developing ‘forest mapping’ and ‘carbon modelling’ services relying on:

o Provision and processing of Earth Observation (EO) data (optical and radar) for deriving primary products required in the assessment of forest cover and change,

o Determining canopy texture features at local and regional scales based on these EO data for a better characterization of forest structure

o Developing the ORCHIDEE carbon flux model which is already recognized by the scientific community towards its operational implementation in national and regional REDD+ MRV systems.

o Quality Assurance, calibration and validation strategies for each step supported by existing ground based in situ measurements or products accuracy assessment already established through robust metrological practices will allow to provide an uncertainty for the overall services.

In order to assess the market size for this technology and to evaluate the potential savings for project developers a market analysis will be performed.

The poster will present the technical approach of this project as well as the different outcomes that can be achieved through this interdisciplinary collaboration.

Politics of numbers in REDD+: the case of reference levels (RL)

A. Angelsen (Norwegian University of Life Sciences, As, Norway), M. Brockhaus (CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia), H. A. Teklay (Norwegian University of Life Sciences, As, Norway)

Abstract details
Politics of numbers in REDD+: the case of reference levels (RL)

A. Angelsen (1) ; M. Brockhaus (2) ; HA. Teklay (1)
(1) Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of economics and business, As, Norway; (2) CIFOR, Bogor, Indonesia

Abstract content

Designing and implementing REDD+ assumes quantification of past and current carbon emissions, constructing a counterfactual future scenario for emissions (i.e. the reference level - RL), as well as indicators for (change in) non-carbon benefits. Most REDD+ countries are characterized by a poor data foundation for undertaking such quantifications, resulting in high uncertainties. In addition, choices have to be made related to what exactly should be measured (including the definition of what constitute a “forest”), the approach to measuring the selected variables (e.g. scope, quality standards), and how the data should be independently verified.

This lack and uncertainty of relevant data creates a fertile ground for “gaming”, defined as the manipulation of data for own benefits. “Gaming” does not imply fabricating data (although that might happen too), but rather processes where the unavoidable choices in data generation are heavily influenced by self-interests. Different stakeholders have different interests in what to be measured, the magnitude of the selected variables, and how the variables should be measured and verified. The most obvious example is how to set the RL in a result-based system: a high RL will give higher estimated emissions reductions and thereby higher payments to those assigned the rights to sell emission reductions. Even without payments, the RL provides a benchmark for measuring the performance of projects and policies, with the credibility and reputation of NGOs, donors and governments being at stake. More generally, what is being measured shapes the political agenda and how different interests are being balanced in the political process. What is being counted counts.

We hypothesize that the degree and nature of gaming with numbers depends on both the underlying uncertainty, the extent and quality of the existing data base, the stakes at play, the informal constraints set by the political environment (e.g. transparent and critical debates), and the formal process for generation and verification of data. We use the RLs in REDD+ as our empirical case, and review RL proposals submitted to UNFCCC by key REDD+ countries. While UNFCCC provides general guidelines for setting RLs, scope for systematic biases of RL exist in the definition of forest, reference period for historical deforestation, adjustments for national circumstances, activities included, pools included, and the emission factors applied.

Do REDD+ social safeguards reach the ‘right' people?

J. Jones (Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom), B. Ramamonjisoa (University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar), N. Hockley, (Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom), A. Rasoamanana (University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar), R. Mandimbiniaina (University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar), S. Rakotonarivo (Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom), M. Poudyal, (Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Do REDD+ social safeguards reach the ‘right' people?

J. Jones (1) ; B. Ramamonjisoa (2) ; S. Rakotonarivo (1) ; A. Rasoamanana (2) ; N. Hockley, (1) ; R. Mandimbiniaina (2) ; M. Poudyal, (1)
(1) Bangor University, School of environment, natural resources and geography, Bangor, United Kingdom; (2) University of Antananarivo, Ecole supérieure des sciences agronomie, Antananarivo, Madagascar

Abstract content

There is extensive debate about the potential impact of the climate mechanism REDD+ on the livelihoods and welfare of forest-dwelling people. To provide carbon credits, a forest carbon scheme must slow the rate of emissions. If this is achieved by slowing the expansion of agricultural land there is clearly a local cost. Madagascar has attracted significant investment in REDD+ and has a number of pilot projects with World Bank support. We focus on one such REDD+ pilot - the Ankeniheny Zahamena Corridor (CAZ). Some 2500 households around the corridor have been identified under World Bank safeguards as containing ‘project affected people (PAPs)’ and are receiving individual income generation projects as compensation. There has been controversy as to how such people are identified. We carried out intensive field work in one administrative unit, mapping the location of each household and selected a random sample stratified by location for detailed household interviews about livelihoods, food security, and assets. We compared the characteristics of households identified as eligible for compensation with those not identified as eligible. We found that people living closest to the forest, with livelihoods most dependent on the forest, were less likely to be identified as PAPs while those living closest to the village centre and with powerful social positions were more likely. We interpret this as evidence of elite capture of the benefits being distributed. Given the extremely poor information available on local populations (even the location of quite significant villages is not available from maps), and the unwillingness of people’s whose livelihood depends on illegal agricultural expansion to self-identify, it is unsurprising that the official process faced challenges. We question whether the approach of identifying and compensating particular households is practical in such settings and discuss what this means for ensuring that REDD+ can be implemented without harming local people’s livelihood.

Future scenarios for the north of Amapá State considering REDD+ as a conservation tool

E. Sotta (Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropequaria - EMBRAPA, Macapá, Brazil), V. Guadalupe (Ativos Socioambiental, Brasilia, Brazil), L. J. G. D. Aguiar (Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, Brazil), V. F. Santos (Instituto de Pesquisas Ciêntificas e Tecnológicas do Estado do Amapá - IEPA, Macapá, Brazil), L. Martorano, (Embrapa, Belém, Brazil)

Abstract details
Future scenarios for the north of Amapá State considering REDD+ as a conservation tool

E. Sotta (1) ; V. Guadalupe (2) ; LJGD. Aguiar (3) ; VF. Santos (4) ; L. Martorano, (5)
(1) Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropequaria - EMBRAPA, Embrapa Amapá, Macapá, Brazil; (2) Ativos Socioambiental, Brasilia, Brazil; (3) Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Meteorologia, Pelotas, Brazil; (4) Instituto de Pesquisas Ciêntificas e Tecnológicas do Estado do Amapá - IEPA, Lab. de sensoriamento remoto e análises espaciais aplicado a ecossistemas. aquáticos – lasa, Macapá, Brazil; (5) Embrapa, Agrometeorologia, Belém, Brazil

Abstract content

The ecosystem services provided by forests are important for ecosystem maintenance, and support, protect or affect the activities and human well-being. Much of the forests in the north region of Eastern Amazon are under some type of protection, being one of the most pristine areas of the Amazon. In Amapá these forests may be threatened by being in an area of the border with French Guiana, where the current political development of the State is being targeted, resulting in actions that modify the current scenario and pressure on natural resources in the region.

This study assessed how the provision and maintenance of ecosystem services such as carbon stocks can contribute to local and regional sustainable development. This study allowed creating development scenarios for the northern region of Amapa to 2030. These results contribute to the discussion of a policy to subsidize programs aiming at reduction of emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) and payment for ecosystem services (PES) implementation, by defining priority areas in the border region between Amapa and French Guiana.

This study was conducted in the northern region of the State of Amapa across the municipalities of Calçoene and Oiapoque. This area lays within the Guyana Shield, which is characterized by a low population density, difficult access to remote forest areas and for being a geological and biological unit where high levels of endemism and biodiversity exists.

The opportunity cost of avoiding forest conversion was generated using information of the net present value (NPV) of four land use activities (forest, cattle ranching, and gold mining) and the average carbon stock values of these land use categories. This latter data was associated with a land transition matrix, processed using the REDD Abacus SP software. The output was the differences derived from the returns of the forest and those land uses that will replace it, with differences in carbon stocks of the emissions avoided by not converting the forest to other uses. Three opportunity cost scenarios were modelled to which a sensitivity analysis was done and, based on these results, scenarios were simulated.

The cumulative reduction of forest cover in 2030 was higher in the pessimistic scenario compared to the other two simulated scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, we observed a clear effect in reducing deforestation by implementing a program of PES-REDD+, which resulted in a level of deforestation close to the historical projection.

The opportunity cost of avoiding the conversion of land use at the current per ton of carbon price (R$ 14.6/tCO2e = $ 7.5/tCO2e) varied between R$ 3.00/tCO2e and R$ 2410.00/tCO2e, corresponding to a potential annual reduction of emissions between 0.14 and 0.02 tCO2e per hectare. The largest potential abatement of emissions derived from avoiding forest conversion to cattle ranching activities (0.14 tCO2e.ha-1.year-1) at a cost of R$ 3.00/tCO2e. Included variations in profitability (NPV) of land uses associated with the three scenarios of deforestation, livestock continue to be the most attractive activity for the implementation of a REDD + project.

In modeling the opportunity cost in terms of the three scenarios of deforestation, we found that the pastures activities remained as the most attractive activity for developing REDD+ projects, with an average cost of R $ 4.93 ± 2.73/tCO2e for the three scenarios, at the current average price per ton of carbon. This shows the potential of establishing a program of payment for environmental services with small cattle ranching producers who practice a low-productivity activity.

The balance between the implementation of conservation policies and economic development will give the state alternatives for successfully implement REDD+ mechanism. However, this success will depend on strengthening of institutional capacities and land regularization measures, which will provide the necessary information to the construction of the policies and the REDD+ strategy of the state. This study gives various elements to support the construction of such a policy, especially for the construction of its baseline.

Forest Degradation, Regeneration, and Farmers' Income: Evidence from Smallholders' Decisions in Vietnam

M. Li (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America), A. De Pinto (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America), T. S. Thomas (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, United States of America)

Abstract details
Forest Degradation, Regeneration, and Farmers' Income: Evidence from Smallholders' Decisions in Vietnam

M. Li (1) ; A. De Pinto (1) ; TS. Thomas (2)
(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States of America; (2) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, United States of America

Abstract content

The interactions between agricultural production, forest conservation, and economic development are complex. Higher agricultural output prices and technologies that increase yield are expected to increase farmers’ income and stimulate forest clearing, while higher agricultural input prices have mixed effects. On the one hand, an increase in the opportunity costs of labor makes agriculture less profitable and can reduce pressures on forests. On the other hand, raising costs associated fertilizer price may induce shift to extensive production systems that use more land and less fertilizer. This study presents new evidence about these relationships by focusing on forest degradation, regeneration, and farmers’ income in Vietnam.

Vietnam has recently experienced forest transitions from net deforestation to net reforestation as many European countries and the United States underwent in the past. From 2000 to 2010, approximately 1.6 million hectares of timber forests were restored in the country. Reforestation, however, coincided with a net reduction of rich and medium timber forests, the area of which declined by 0.16 million hectares and 0.27 million hectares, respectively. In the meantime, the area of agricultural land increased by almost 2 million hectares, due largely to the expansion of permanent crops. Thus, understanding how agricultural sector affects forest resources and how these changes in turn affect rural economy have important implications for policy making.

The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the impacts of agriculture production on forest degradation and regeneration in Vietnam in the 2000â€'2010 decade. We compile highly detailed forest data for two years 2000 and 2010, which are derived from fine-scale vector data of land use developed by the International Center for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF). The forest data are merged with ~40,000 household-level observations in ~ 3,000 communes from the 2008 Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey, which provides extensive information about farmers’ income and expenditure. Using the data set, we address three questions: (1) How did agricultural output prices, input prices, and off-farm wage affect forest degradation and regeneration? (2) How did these changes subsequently influence farmers’ income? (3) How did these influences vary with intensive agricultural production regions and frontier agricultural production regions?   

Our study makes two contributions to the literature. First, the coexistence of forest degradation and regeneration in Vietnam provides an opportunity to study the influence of small farmers’ decisions on forest resources at the micro level. The detailed forest data allow identifying changes in forest species, which helps to distinguish forest degradation from restoration. This is particularly important because to assess the impact of forest resource change on climate change, it is necessary to understand how forest carbon density changes. An oversight of the spatial pattern of forest species may cause misleading estimates.

Second, this study provides empirical evidence of the interactions between agricultural production, forest conservation, and economic development. Land use change is arguably the most pervasive socioeconomic forces affecting economic and environmental systems. These forces drive a large portion of global economic and environmental problems. Solving these problems requires a renewed focus on these interactions.

Agriculture-charcoal interactions as determinants of deforestation rates and forest degradation: Implications for REDD+ design in Zambia

A. Cattaneo (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy), J. Pycroft (European Commission (IPTS, EU JRC), Seville, Spain), M. Kokwe, (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Lusaka, Zambia), A. Arslan (FAO of the UN, Rome, Italy), L. Lipper, (FAO of the UN, Rome, Italy)

Abstract details
Agriculture-charcoal interactions as determinants of deforestation rates and forest degradation: Implications for REDD+ design in Zambia

A. Cattaneo (1) ; J. Pycroft (2) ; M. Kokwe, (3) ; A. Arslan (4) ; L. Lipper, (4)
(1) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Agricultural Development Economics Division, Rome, Italy; (2) European Commission (IPTS, EU JRC), Seville, Spain; (3) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Zambia represenation, Lusaka, Zambia; (4) FAO of the UN, Agricultural Development Economics Division, Rome, Italy

Abstract content

This paper simulates the relative contribution to deforestation and forest degradation of the two largest proximate drivers of deforestation in Zambia, which are charcoal production and agriculture, under different scenarios over the period 2015-2022. Different options to reduce land use change are examined using a computable general equilibrium model capturing Zambia’s different agroecological zones (AEZs). The model assumes that forests used for unsustainable charcoal production are degraded, or can also be in part converted to land for agriculture use. However, land can also be deforested directly for agricultural use without going through charcoal production.

Results highlight how the interplay between charcoal and agriculture is important in determining deforestation rates and forest degradation in Zambia. For example, measures addressing exclusively charcoal drivers, such as decreasing its demand through improved stove efficiency or improving sustainability of production reduce forest degradation, but are ineffective in reducing deforestation rates because land is cleared anyways due to demand for agricultural land.  Conversely, measures addressing agricultural drivers, such as better reducing fertilizer subsidies in a targeted manner, or reducing land degradation through increased adoption of SLM measures, manage to considerably  reduce deforestation rates, but have little impact on forest degradation.

Table 1. Predicted cumulative impact on forests in Zambia under different scenarios for the period 2015-2022: area deforested directly for agriculture, attributable to charcoal, and forest degaradation (million hectares).

 

Deforestation directly for Agriculture

Deforestation through Charcoal

Forest Degradation

Total: deforestation + degradation

Business-as-usual

1.03

1.37

2.06

4.46

Stove efficiency (+30%)

1.44

0.97

1.46

3.87

Charcoal sustainability

1.69

0.71

1.06

3.46

Reducing fertilizer subsidies

0.65

1.38

2.06

4.08

Reducing land degradation

0.69

1.37

2.06

4.11

Potential REDD+ package

0.68

0.71

1.06

2.45

Simulations indicate that with a potential REDD+ package proposing a reduction of fertilizer subsidies in agroecological zones (AEZs) I and IIa, reducing land degradation through sustainable land management practices, combined with making charcoal production more sustainable and improving stove efficiency, approximately 1 million hectares of deforestation could be avoided in the period 2015-2022, and forest degradation reduced in an area of 1.06 million hectares.

We also report on welfare effects on small and large farm rural households in different Agro-ecological zones. The Business-as-usual scenario, as assumed in our simulations, is one where incomes grow over a period of 8 years by 120% to 150% among rural households. In  AEZs I, IIa1, IIb, and III these gains are reduced only marginally (-1%to -4%) by the implementation of the REDD+ package envisaged in these simulations. Conversely, both small and large farm households in AEZ IIa2 are considerably negatively affected by the REDD+ package (-15% relative to BAU). These results would indicate that financial resources available under REDD+ may need to be allocated asymmetrically so that households in AEZ IIa2 are provided with appropriate incentives for losses incurred due to constraints associated with a REDD+ package. This would be particularly important because of the 990,000 hectares of reduction in deforestation, 400,000 are in AEZ IIa2.

 

Under-estimation of forest biomass loss with REDD+ standard reporting method

S. Mermoz (CESBIO (Centre d'Etudes Spatiales sur la BIOsphère), Toulouse, France), A. Bouvet (CESBIO (Centre d'Etudes Spatiales sur la BIOsphère), Toulouse, France), T. Le Toan (CESBIO (Centre d'Etudes Spatiales sur la BIOsphère), Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
Under-estimation of forest biomass loss with REDD+ standard reporting method

S. Mermoz (1) ; A. Bouvet (1) ; T. Le Toan (1)
(1) CESBIO (Centre d'Etudes Spatiales sur la BIOsphère), Toulouse, France

Abstract content

Tropical deforestation is estimated to total approximately 13 million hectares per year in the period 2000-2010. Tropical deforestation, resulting from different causes, is thought to be a major contributor to GHG emissions, leading to emissions of CO2 and, if the biomass is burnt during the clearing process, additional non CO2 gases. Emissions from tropical deforestation, forest and peat degradation are currently estimated to be 15% of the world’s anthropogenic GHG emissions, mainly through CO2 emissions (in the range of 8-20%). In response to the evidence by the scientists of the value of protecting forests in tackling climate change, policymakers have developed a family of policies, collectively known as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) to provide a financial incentive to governments, agribusinesses and communities to maintain rather than reduce forest cover. A key question for REDD+ measurement reporting and verification (MRV), is how much aboveground biomass (AGB) or carbon has been released. The standard method for REDD+ MRV consists in using earth observation optical data to assess change in forest cover, together with a priori knowledge of values of forest carbon per unit area. The shortcoming of the method is the lack of reliable distributed forest carbon density (biomass). In addition, current MRV results using optical remote sensing are dependent on the retained UNFCCC forest definitions, which are characterized by threshold values of tree crown cover, tree height, and minimum area. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data are sensitive to forest AGB; thus an adequate SAR system, with long wavelength, could provide mapping of AGB and its change over time to be used for estimating carbon emissions. The available long wavelength SARs are 25 centimetres wavelength (L-band). Whereas AGB of dense tropical forest cannot be retrieved from L-band SAR data, biomass mapping of low AGB forests using spaceborne ALOS-PALSAR data has been object to several studies. Recently, mapping of savanna forest AGB has been achieved at 100 m resolution over Sub-Saharan Africa [1]. In this paper, the focus is on the assessment of African tropical AGB over the so-called 'non forest' class, which is not taken into account into REDD+ processes. To do so, the AGB map from [1] has been improved and AGB from this map has been assessed in various countries over areas from the Landsat tree cover benchmark map [2] that are not considered as forests. The AGB map from [1] at 100 m resolution results from an inverse model based on the empirical regression derived from insitu data and 2007 ALOS PALSAR data. A collection of AGB estimates over 81 plots (mean plot size is 0.98 hectare) from 7 African countries was used in this study to improve the AGB map. The mean AGB is computed over tree crown cover values lower than 30%, the most widely used threshold. The results show that biomass loss estimation is clearly under-estimated when using standard methods such as changes in forest cover using spaceborne optical data. For example, the biomass stocks of non forest class in Zambia, a UN-REDD partner country, is 1,509Mt in this study and represent 31% of total biomass stock in Zambia (4,914 Mt), where fires make a significant contribution to greenhouse gas emissions in miombo woodlands that cover almost half of the country. The biomass stocks of non forest class in Zimbabwe, another UN-REDD partner country, is 1,078Mt in this study and represent almost the total biomass stock in the entire Zimbabwe (1,086 Mt). Such a high AGB value associated to the non forest class leads to a significant underestimation of the carbon emissions associated to deforestation and degradation of savanna woodland. Within higher latitudes, mean AGB in non forest class was found to be logically lower but far from negligible. Therefore, SAR data could support REDD+ MRV, especially with the launch of BIOMASS satellite in 2020.

[1] A. Bouvet, T. Le Toan, and S. Mermoz, "An above-ground biomass map of african savannas at a resolution of 100 metersusing ALOS PALSAR data," Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 2014 IEEE International, July 2013,ftp://ftp.legos.obs-mip.fr/pub/tmp3m/IGARSS2014/abstracts/2891.pdf

[2] J.O. Sexton, et al., "Global, 30-m resolution continuous fields of tree cover: Landsat-based rescaling of modis vegetation continuousfields with lidar-based estimates of error," International Journal of Digital Earth, vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 427–448, 2013

Do REDD+ social safeguards reach the ‘right' people?

J. Jones (Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom), B. Ramamonjisoa (University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar), S. Rakotonarivo (Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom), A. Rasoamanana (University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar), N. Hockley, (Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom), R. Mandimbiniaina (University of Antananarivo, Antananarivo, Madagascar), M. Poudyal, (Bangor University, Bangor, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Do REDD+ social safeguards reach the ‘right' people?

J. Jones (1) ; B. Ramamonjisoa (2) ; S. Rakotonarivo (1) ; A. Rasoamanana (2) ; N. Hockley, (1) ; R. Mandimbiniaina (2) ; M. Poudyal, (1)
(1) Bangor University, School of environment, natural resources and geography, Bangor, United Kingdom; (2) University of Antananarivo, Ecole supérieure des sciences agronomie, Antananarivo, Madagascar

Abstract content

There is extensive debate about the potential impact of the climate mechanism REDD+ on the livelihoods and welfare of forest-dwelling people. To provide carbon credits, a forest carbon scheme must slow the rate of emissions. If this is achieved by slowing the expansion of agricultural land there is clearly a local cost. Madagascar has attracted significant investment in REDD+ and has a number of pilot projects with World Bank support. We focus on one such REDD+ pilot - the Ankeniheny Zahamena Corridor (CAZ). Some 2500 households around the corridor have been identified under World Bank safeguards as containing ‘project affected people (PAPs)’ and are receiving individual income generation projects as compensation. There has been controversy as to how such people are identified. We carried out intensive field work in one administrative unit, mapping the location of each household and selected a random sample stratified by location for detailed household interviews about livelihoods, food security, and assets. We compared the characteristics of households identified as eligible for compensation with those not identified as eligible. We found that people living closest to the forest, with livelihoods most dependent on the forest, were less likely to be identified as PAPs while those living closest to the village centre and with powerful social positions were more likely. We interpret this as evidence of elite capture of the benefits being distributed. Given the extremely poor information available on local populations (even the location of quite significant villages is not available from maps), and the unwillingness of people’s whose livelihood depends on illegal agricultural expansion to self-identify, it is unsurprising that the official process faced challenges. We question whether the approach of identifying and compensating particular households is practical in such settings and discuss what this means for ensuring that REDD+ can be implemented without harming local people’s livelihood.

The contribution of agroforestry systems for climate change mitigation - A systematic analysis

D. Feliciano (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom), D. Nayak, (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom), P. Smith (University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom), E. Wollenberg, (Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, Vermont, United States of America), H. Neufeldt (ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya), J. Hillier, (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The contribution of agroforestry systems for climate change mitigation - A systematic analysis

D. Feliciano (1) ; D. Nayak, (1) ; P. Smith (2) ; E. Wollenberg, (3) ; H. Neufeldt (4) ; J. Hillier, (1)
(1) Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; (2) University of Aberdeen, Institute of Biological & Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom; (3) Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, School of environment and natural resources, Vermont, United States of America; (4) ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

Climate change mitigation and food security are two of the main challenges of human society. Agroforestry systems, defined as the presence of trees on external and internal boundaries, cropland, homestead plots or on any other available niche of farmland, can provide both climate change mitigation and food. There are several types of agroforestry systems with different rates of above ground and soil carbon (C) sequestration. The amount of carbon sequestered will depend on the type of system, climate and region. We undertook a meta-analysis that included data collection from several studies on carbon sequestration for different agroforestry systems, climates and regions in the world. The objective was to provide information on more types of agroforestry systems than those considered by the IPCC. The results from the meta-analysis show that greater carbon sequestration occurs when the land use change is from cropland to a woodlot system in the case of above ground carbon sequestration, and from fallow to a woodlot system in the case of soil carbon sequestration. Results also show that tropical climates are the most favourable for above ground carbon sequestration in agroforestry systems. Time since the change in land use is another variable to take into account, as soil carbon sequestration is generally negative up until 5 years after the transition to an agroforestry system. Our analysis provides a wider range of options that can inform practitioners in case they also need to base their choice of agroforestry system in relation to the carbon sequestration benefits.  Carbon stocks before land use change, the variance and the soil sampling design were the main gaps in the literature reviewed. These gaps should be addressed in future studies if the implementation of agroforestry systems is considered as having an important role for C sequestration.

Large scale agrofuels projects in the Tana River Delta, Kenya: an assessment of their purported climate benefits and their impact on ecosystem service delivery for the local population

L. Mukhwana (International Development Reseach Centre, Nairobi, Kenya), O. Hamerlynck, (Kenya Wetlands Biodiversity Research Team, Nairobi, Kenya), Q. Luke, (National Museums of Kenya, Kenya Wetlands Biodiversity Research Group, Nairobi, Kenya), S. Duvail (IRD, Nairobi, Kenya), D. Nyingi (National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Large scale agrofuels projects in the Tana River Delta, Kenya: an assessment of their purported climate benefits and their impact on ecosystem service delivery for the local population

L. Mukhwana (1) ; O. Hamerlynck, (2) ; Q. Luke, (3) ; S. Duvail (4) ; D. Nyingi (5)
(1) International Development Reseach Centre, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) Kenya Wetlands Biodiversity Research Team, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) National Museums of Kenya, Kenya Wetlands Biodiversity Research Group, Nairobi, Kenya; (4) IRD, UMR 208 "Patrimoines Locaux", Nairobi, Kenya; (5) National Museums of Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

Over the past decade, the Tana River Delta in Kenya has attracted a lot of interest from foreign investors aiming to start large-scale development projects for agro-fuel production. Most of these projects have failed either to commence or to thrive but others are continuously coming up. From 2010, Bedford Biofuels a Canadian company acquired 160 000 ha of Land on the terraces surrounding the delta with the plan to convert it to a vast Jatropha curcas plantation. The rationale behind the investment was that the delta lands are unproductive and could be used to produce cheap and climate-friendly agro-fuels.In order to check this assumption a survey was conducted in May 2012 on the project area, assessing its woody vegetation and standing carbon stocks in order to compare their potential for REDD+ schemes with the proposed direct land use change by conversion to agro-fuel farms. This carbon stock assessment, combined with a wider analysis of the ecosystem services provided by the delta terraces, have shown that there are more opportunities for the local communities in their current use of the Tana Delta land than in the option of the conversion to a vast Jatropha field. In this presentation we put emphasis on the risk of developing large scale agro-fuels projects without properly taking into account the various values of the ecosystem to the local users and without considering the existing customary land tenure rights.Resilience to climate change is more likely to improve when land rights are secured for traditional semi-nomadic livestock keeping and participatory land use planning with all use planning with all users.

Development of a global level decision support tool to reduce agricultural emissions

D. Feliciano (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom), D. Nayak, (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom), S. Vetter, (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom), J. Hillier, (Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Development of a global level decision support tool to reduce agricultural emissions

D. Feliciano (1) ; D. Nayak, (1) ; S. Vetter, (1) ; J. Hillier, (1)
(1) Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The tool described is an Excel-based tool which brings together several empirical models to estimate greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in rice, cropland and livestock systems, and to provide information about the most effective mitigation options. Greenhouse gas emissions are estimated in terms of total GHG emitted in kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per hectare (kg CO2eq ha-1) and in terms of GHG intensity, i.e., kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per unit of product (kg CO2eq kg-1). This tool allows for management-relevant GHG assessments to be made with relatively little effort. Management practices are chosen by the user and mitigation options are estimated and ranked according to its mitigation potential. The aim of the tool is to accommodate a range of users from an introductory to advanced level, depending on objectives and issues like time, existing knowledge, or data available.This paper describes the methods used to develop a tool to enable policy makers to explore the most appropriate GHG mitigation options available for any region worldwide. Since the target users are policy-makers and policy advisers, this tool was built to be user-friendly, and not time consuming. Apart from these characteristics, the tool differs from other tools available because it provides information about mitigation options according to a variable baseline management and it does not ask for detailed management practices (low input data required).

 

Planetary limits to Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) negative emissions

A. Wiltshire (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), T. Davies-Barnard (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), C. Jones (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), J. Lowe (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Planetary limits to Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) negative emissions

A. Wiltshire (1) ; T. Davies-Barnard (2) ; C. Jones (1) ; J. Lowe (3)
(1) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; (2) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) Met Office, Lead scientist of avoid, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Session: Global scenarios of land-use change and land-based mitigation, and their importance in the climate system; conveners Arneth/Stehfest/Popp 

 

Most but not all IPCC WG3 emission scenarios stabilising climate at low levels, such as the 2 degree C climate target require large scale deployment of Bio-Energy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). BECCS allows for negative emissions, which is the artificial removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (CDR). BECCS can therefore offset anthropogenic emissions, and even lead to overall net negative emissions. In this study we consider three alternative scenarios of BECCS deployment ranging from the conversion of existing agricultural areas, moderate levels of land conversion and an extreme level of tropical land conversion to maximise yields. These scenarios are used in combination with simulations from the HadGEM2-ES earth system model to consider the implications of climate change on yield and the emissions associated with deforestation, as well as the biophysical effect on climate associated with the land-use change. These are combined to assess the net climate effects of large-scale BECCS deployment.   Overall, in our assessment we find the contribution of BECCS is unlikely to exceed cooling of 0.7 deg C by 2100. The median estimate of total negative emissions in the IPCC WG3 database compatible with the 2C target is 166 GtC. The highest estimates presented here is 130GtC.

 

Land Use Emissions Abatement and Consequences for Food Prices

M. Stevanovic (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), A. Popp (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), B. Bodirsky (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), F. Humpenoeder (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), M. Bonsch (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), I. Weindl (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), C. Müller (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), J. Dietrich (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), S. Rolinski (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), A. Biewald (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), X. Wang, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Land Use Emissions Abatement and Consequences for Food Prices

M. Stevanovic (1) ; A. Popp (1) ; B. Bodirsky (1) ; F. Humpenoeder (1) ; M. Bonsch (1) ; I. Weindl (1) ; C. Müller (1) ; J. Dietrich (1) ; S. Rolinski (1) ; A. Biewald (1) ; X. Wang, (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Considerable emission cuts of greenhouse gases (GHG) are required in order to prevent further warming of the planet and to reduce the risk of severe impacts attributed to climate change (Meinshausen et al., 2009, Nature 458: 1158–1162). The agricultural, forestry and other land use sector (AFOLU) is one of the central players in such mitigation efforts as it itself contributes with 20-25% to overall GHG emissions, but also allows for negative emissions by removing GHGs, mainly carbon-dioxide (CO₂), from the atmosphere (IPCC AR5, 2014). To this end, climate mitigation policies need to take AFOLU options into account, but science needs to understand and highlight possible trade-offs and socio-economic impacts of AFOLU-based climate mitigation. For instance, large scale land use change can have adverse impacts on various ecosystem services, such as conservation of biodiversity, water retention, food provision etc. Similarly, a direct pricing of GHG emission could affect commodity prices from the agricultural sector through increased cost of agricultural production and further compromise food security. Using an agro-economic, spatially explicit model (MAgPIE; Lotze-Campen et al., 2008, Agric. Econ. 39: 325–338; Popp et al., 2014 Nat. Clim. Change 4: 1095-1098) that estimates cost-optimal land use patterns of global agricultural production, we show that mitigation measure both at the supply or demand side of the AFOLU sector can strongly reduce major GHG emissions in form of carbon-dioxide from land use change, and nitrous-oxide (N₂O) and methane (CH₄) stemming from agricultural production activities. However, supply side emission reduction measures, such as avoided deforestation and less polluting agricultural management and practice incentivized by a GHG emission tax, lead to strong increases of food prices (~250% of price index under a reference scenario, BAU, at the end of the century), which are mostly driven by the pricing of CH₄ emissions stemming from the livestock production sector. On the contrary, measure that target demand side management, including better food waste management and a “demitarian” diet with halved livestock calorie demand in daily food intake compared to present day livestock product consumption in developed countries, allow for additional potential for carbon uptake on abandoned agricultural land and even decreases the prices throughout the 21st century. However, in order to further eliminate residual emissions, especially the cumbersome CH₄ gas, a synergy of the two emission reduction strategies is required. This combined strategy curbs the non-CO₂ emissions further, cutting down N₂O and CH₄ to 50% and 40% respectively, relative to BAU. A stringent abatement of CH₄ emissions (by 60%) through combination of the demand and supply side policies demonstrates generally lower food prices over the century than is the case with only supply side mitigation policy. In conclusion, our study demonstrates the considerable potential of food demand management in reducing GHG emissions from the AFOLU sector without jeopardizing food security and beneficial to the environment.

Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector: abatement potential and cost of technical measures

S. Pellerin (INRA, Villenave d'ornon, France), L. Bamiere (INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France), D. Angers (Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada, Québec, Canada), F. Béline (IRSTEA, Rennes, France), M. Benoit (INRA, Saint Genes Champanelle, France), C. Chenu (Agroparistech, Paris, France), C. Colnenne-David (INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France), S. De Cara (INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France), M. Doreau (INRA, Saint Genes Champanelle, France), P. Dupraz (INRA, Rennes, France), P. Faverdin (INRA, Rennes, France), F. Garcia-Launay (INRA, Rennes, France), M. Hassouna (INRA, Rennes, France), C. Henault (INRA, Orléans, France), M.-H. Jeuffroy (INRA, Thiverval-Grignon, France), K. Klumpp (INRA, Clermont-Ferrand, France), A. Metay (Supagro, Montpellier, France), D. Moran (Scotland rural college, Edimburg, United Kingdom), S. Recous (INRA, Reims, France), L. Pardon (INRA, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector: abatement potential and cost of technical measures

S. Pellerin (1) ; L. Bamiere (2) ; D. Angers (3) ; F. Béline (4) ; M. Benoit (5) ; C. Chenu (6) ; C. Colnenne-David (7) ; S. De Cara (2) ; M. Doreau (5) ; P. Dupraz (8) ; P. Faverdin (9) ; F. Garcia-Launay (9) ; M. Hassouna (10) ; C. Henault (11) ; MH. Jeuffroy (7) ; K. Klumpp (12) ; A. Metay (13) ; D. Moran (14) ; S. Recous (15) ; L. Pardon (16)
(1) INRA, Environment and Agronomy, Villenave d'ornon, France; (2) INRA, Umr eco-pub, Thiverval-Grignon, France; (3) Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada, Québec, Canada; (4) IRSTEA, Ur gere, Rennes, France; (5) INRA, Umr herbivores, Saint Genes Champanelle, France; (6) Agroparistech, Umr iees, Paris, France; (7) INRA, Umr agronomie, Thiverval-Grignon, France; (8) INRA, Umr smart, Rennes, France; (9) INRA, Umr pegase, Rennes, France; (10) INRA, Umr sas, Rennes, France; (11) INRA, UR SOLS 0272, Orléans, France; (12) INRA, Urep, Clermont-Ferrand, France; (13) Supagro, Umr system, Montpellier, France; (14) Scotland rural college, Economics, Edimburg, United Kingdom; (15) INRA, Umr fare, Reims, France; (16) INRA, Depe, Paris, France

Abstract content

In Europe, agriculture is responsible for 10.2% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with concomitant opportunities for mitigation. This sector can contribute to abatement objectives via three levers: a reduction in N2O, CH4 and CO2 emissions, additional carbon storage in soil, and biomass and energy production (substitution effect). The objective of this study was to assess technical measures to reduce GHG emissions at the farm level in a European context without reducing production outputs. France was chosen as a case study with a typical intensive and diversified agriculture.

Ten measures, split into 26 sub-measures, were selected from an initial list of 100 “candidate” measures. The selection process was based on five criteria: the expected effect on production, the GHG abatement potential, the current availability of the technology required to implement the measure and of validated scientific knowledge establishing its efficacy, the applicability of the measure, including its social acceptability, and the potential synergies or antagonisms with other agri-environmental objectives, including adaptation to climate change.

The ten selected measures were linked to 1) nitrogen management in the field (better adjust fertiliser application rates, introduce more legumes in arable crop rotations and temporary grasslands), 2) management practices which increase carbon storage in soils and biomass (reduced tillage, cover crops and grass buffer strips, agroforestry and hedges, grassland management), 3) livestock diets (unsaturated fats or additive in ruminant diets, better adjust the amount of proteins), and 4) energy production and consumption on farms (methanisation and flares, energy savings). Their abatement potential and cost were accurately calculated and compared, using a marginal abatement cost curve approach (Moran et al., 2011).

Results showed that the overall abatement potential can be broken down into three groups. One third of the cumulated abatement potential corresponds to sub-measures with a negative technical cost. These sub-measures are based on an improved efficiency of inputs like N fertilizers, animal feed and energy, thus reducing GHG emissions and costs, with no negative effect on production (win-win measures). Moreover, these sub-measures have a positive expected effect on water and air quality and no antagonism exists with the objective of adaptation to climate change.

The second group corresponds to sub-measures with a moderate cost (<€25 per metric ton of CO2e avoided). These sub-measures require specific investments (e.g. methanisation) or modifying the cropping system slightly more (reduced tillage, legumes, agroforestry). However, these additional costs or lower incomes are partially compensated for by a reduction in other costs (fuels) or additional marketable products (biogas, electricity, wood).

The third group corresponds to sub-measures with a high cost (>€25 per metric ton of CO2e avoided). These sub-measures require investment with no direct financial return (flares), the purchase of specific inputs (nitrification inhibitors, unsaturated fats or additives incorporated into the diet of ruminants), dedicated labour time (cover crops, hedges) or involve greater production losses (grass buffer strips reducing the cultivated surface area for example).

When calculated under current national inventory rules, the overall annual abatement of all these measures represents 10% of annual emissions from agriculture. This percentage is higher when calculations are based on higher tier approaches.

It is concluded that cost-effective technical levers exist for agriculture to support greenhouse gas mitigation without hampering production and adaptation goals.

An assessment of Brazilian biofuels expansion from a climate-resilient pathways framework

W. Wills (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil), M. Obermaier (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil), C. King, (University of Texas - Austin, Austin, United States of America), A. Xavier (University of Texas - Austin, Austin, United States of America), B. Scanlon (University of Texas - Austin, Austin, United States of America), M. Moreira (Agroicone, São Paulo, Brazil)

Abstract details
An assessment of Brazilian biofuels expansion from a climate-resilient pathways framework

W. Wills (1) ; M. Obermaier (2) ; C. King, (3) ; A. Xavier (3) ; B. Scanlon (4) ; M. Moreira (5)
(1) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Instituto alberto luiz coimbra de pós-graduação e pesquisa de engenharia (coppe), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; (2) Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia (COPPE), Rio de Janeiro - RJ, Brazil; (3) University of Texas - Austin, Energy institute, Austin, United States of America; (4) University of Texas - Austin, Bureau of economic geology, Austin, United States of America; (5) Agroicone, São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract content

Climate change’s impact on society, health, and nature is a global challenge with local effects and needs for response. One of the upmost concerns about climate change is the possibility that its impacts can offset any gains we have accomplished thus far in terms of human and sustainable development, particularly in less developed regions (World Bank, 2010). A highly promising means to achieve desirable future states is the development of climate resilient pathways (CRPs) (Denton et al., 2014) which are “… development trajectories that combine adaptation and mitigation to realize the goal of sustainable development” with the explicit target to simultaneously seek to maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs among those three pillars.  

Biofuel development certainly entails a combination of climate mitigation and sustainable development needs, but also adaptation in agriculture and water resources. Originally seen as a solution for climate change mitigation, energy independence, and rural development (Sachs, 2005; Hazell and Pachauri, 2006), recent research has linked biofuels production to biodiversity loss, depletion of water resources, food insecurity, and, contrary to earlier studies, increases in GHGs emissions due to indirect deforestation and nitrogen fertilizer application (Fargione et al., 2008; Gibbs et al., 2008). In this context, Brazil, one of the world’s largest biofuel producers, is largely considered a success story given low per ha GHG emissions, availability of land for energy crops, low induced deforestation and social inclusion targets for family farmers (Goldemberg et al., 2008; Nassar et al., 2010; Schaffel et al., 2012).

However, sustainable production of Brazilian biofuels is now put to a test as both national and international demand for domestically produced biofuels is rising, including export of sustainably produced biofuels, thus driving biofuels production into new lands and microclimates. Furthermore, climate change is now predicted to affect agricultural productivity and water resources availability in Brazil, potentially increasing conflicts between different land uses, including those of food versus fuel (Lapola et al., 2010; Assad et al., 2010; La Rovere et al., 2011).

Understanding the interrelationships between different land uses, water demand and supply, and energy production is thus imperative in order to identify potential medium to long-term consequences of current biofuel policies, the potential options to mitigate these impacts, and to take advantage of potential opportunities for sustainable development and adaptation in agriculture, including export of sustainably produced biofuels.

In this context, assessing Brazilian biofuels under a under a CRP framework may thus provide important policy contributions for planning of climate change and development. Considerable efforts have been made in order to identify and analyse key challenges for sustainable production of biofuels in Brazil. However, existing studies (e.g., Goldemberg et al., 2008; Fargione et al., 2008; Lapola et al., 2010; La Rovere et al., 2011) have focused on isolated impacts of biofuel production or case studies, rather than providing integrated assessments of policy-relevant (including climate policy) energy, land use, and water issues. In this context, our presentation aims to inform policymakers and stakeholders on potential biofuels expansion scenarios in Brazil under climate change until 2030 in order to enable sound policymaking that mitigates adverse impacts on land use, water resources, and food security, while simultaneously promoting sustainable production of biofuels. We do so through a multi-institutional modelling effort (carried out by three research centers from Brazil and US) that integrates basin-scale water resources impact assessment, land-use change analysis, and energy-economy-wide modelling of socioeconomic and GHG impacts due to biofuels use. Our presentation will focus on explaining our methodological framework for CRP assessment and present first results obtained in the areas of water resources and land use management.

Assessment of options for land use in a post-2020 world

P. Wylie (IUCN - International Union For Conservation of Nature, Washington, DC, United States of America), J. Funk, (UCS - Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, United States of America), J. Brana-Varela, (WWF US - World Wildlife Fund for Nature, Washington, DC, United States of America)

Abstract details
Assessment of options for land use in a post-2020 world

P. Wylie (1) ; J. Funk, (2) ; J. Brana-Varela, (3)
(1) IUCN - International Union For Conservation of Nature, Global Forest & Climate Change Programme, Washington, DC, United States of America; (2) UCS - Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC, United States of America; (3) WWF US - World Wildlife Fund for Nature, Forest and climate program, Washington, DC, United States of America

Abstract content

Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) account for nearly 25% of global GHG emissions while also absorbing a significant amount of emissions according to IPCC AR5.   In this light, IUCN and a group of leading organizations focused on UNFCCC negotiations have been reaching out to Parties to discuss the role of the forest and land sectors in the new climate agreement.  

 

Expert workshops over the last 18 months in Bonn and Lima, as well as an expert panel at the Global Landscapes Forum, advanced discussions and identified solutions for this important issue.  All of those events included the REDD+, LULUCF, and agriculture negotiators, in order to ensure the discussions covered the full scope of land-use issues.   These discussions highlighted risks to the integrity of a new climate regime if the role of the land sector is not adequately or appropriately reflected in the Paris agreement. 

 

Taking stock of recent publications on the subject and the current status of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), REDD+, degradation and land-related CDM discussions in the UNFCCC, the relative strengths and weaknesses of options for how the land sector might be addressed in a post-2020 ADP agreement, will be highlighted. This set of options will have been discussed at a targeted workshop the month before amongst ADP lead negotiators.

 

Based on recent research, key questions that to be addressed will focus on: 

  • What specific attributes are needed in a framework to promote ambitious emission reductions from the land sector?
  • Based on summaries of the INDC submissions to date and beyond, what are Parties to the UNFCCC already preparing domestically to recognize the importance of the land use into their post-2020 contributions?
  • Beyond global agreement in Paris at COP21, what can the international scientific community and both international & domestic organizations do to support permanence in any future gains on the emission gap via ambitious action within the land sector?

Limiting factors on low uptake of Clean Development Mechanism based projects in Africa: Lost opportunities during first commitment period of Kyoto Protocol

L. Mahamane (African Forest Forum (AFF), Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Limiting factors on low uptake of Clean Development Mechanism based projects in Africa: Lost opportunities during first commitment period of Kyoto Protocol

L. Mahamane (1)
(1) African Forest Forum (AFF), Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

Africa countries like other developing countries in the rest of the world signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol in order to benefit from the clean development mechanism (CDM) funds aimed at mitigating greenhouse gas emission from land used based activities. A study was conducted in 10 African countries aimed at identifying the main limiting factors on low uptake of CDM forest based projects in Africa. The study was a desk review and focused group discussions during training workshops on rapid forest carbon stock appraisal (RaCSA) for academia, research, staff from relevant government ministries, extension services and civil society organisations.   The data collected was analyzed using qualitative research approaches where key themes and frames were generated. Quantitative data was analyzed using appropriate statistical procedures.  It was evident from the UNFCCC database, since 2004 to 2014, only 2 % of all registered CDM projects were from Africa as compared to 84 % from Asia and Pacific Ocean, 13 % from Latin America and Carribean and 1 % from Economies in Transition. Of the 2 % from Africa, a very negligible percentage was from biomass as compared to hydro, wind and other GHG gases. This demonstrated very limited number of CDM projects that could have significantly wide scale on investment, improved economy and mitigation of GHG emissions from land based sector.

 The major identified limiting factors on low uptake of CDM forest based and other related projects were: complicated processes on developing CDM projects especially on how to initiate project idea note (PIN) and develop project design document (PDD). This was compounded with inadequate capacity from Africa especially on the methodology resulting to heavy transactional costs of hiring international experts to support local communities and African governments to develop and implement CDM projects. The stringent rules on implementation of Kyoto Protocol on afforestation and reforestation programmes also played a significant role. For instance, CDM reforestation activities as per the Kyoto Protocol was to take place if there has been no forest since 31st Dec. 1989 or afforestation activities if there has been no forest for atleast 50 years. These periods specified, most of the African areas were forested. Also a number of African countries have not agreed on clear definition of forest to enable investors participate on forestry based CDM project. The other limiting factor is political instability and war among African states that continuously scared investors. This hindered formulation of forest based policies that will capitalize on emerging payment of ecosystem services. These factors among others constitute lost opportunities during the first commitment period of Kyoto protocol for African countries.  Enhanced capacity among forestry stakeholders, formulation of favourable policies and continuous update of Kyoto Protocol to suit emerging circumstances in the African continent will be critical on accelerating the validation, registration and implementation of forest based CDM project in Africa.

Terrestrial carbon sinks: the critical role in deep greenhouse gas reduction scenarios and ecological limits to large scale carbon dioxide removal

M. S. Torn (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), L. Smith (University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America), D. Sanchez, (UC Berkeley, Berkeley, United States of America), J. H. Williams, (Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), San Francisco, United States of America), A. Jones, (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States of America)

Abstract details
Terrestrial carbon sinks: the critical role in deep greenhouse gas reduction scenarios and ecological limits to large scale carbon dioxide removal

MS. Torn (1) ; L. Smith (2) ; D. Sanchez, (3) ; JH. Williams, (4) ; A. Jones, (1)
(1) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (2) University of California Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States of America; (3) UC Berkeley, Energy and resources group, Berkeley, United States of America; (4) Energy and Environmental Economics (E3), San Francisco, United States of America

Abstract content

Pathways to achieving deep greenhouse (GHG) reductions (such as 80% reductions by 2050) have  implications for carbon cycle science. This talk will highlight the critical role that terrestrial carbon sinks and mitigation of non-energy GHGs have in reading deep decarbonization goals. 

In addition, many climate change mitigation scenarios include terrestrial atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (BCDR) or carbon neutral bioenergy production through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECS) or afforestation/reforestation. Very high sequestration potentials for these strategies have been reported, and we evaluate the potential ecological limits (e.g., land and resource requirements) to implementation at the 1 Pg C y-1 scale relevant to climate change mitigation for U.S. and global scenarios. We estimate that removing 1 Pg C y-1  via tropical afforestation would require at least 7×106  ha y-1 of land, 0.09 Tg y-1 of nitrogen, and 0.2 Tg y-1 of phosphorous, and would increase evapotranspiration from those lands by almost 50%. Because of improved carbon capture technologies, we are updating (and reducing) our previous estimates for switchgrass BECS (previous estimate was 2×108  ha land and 20 Tg y-1 of nitrogen (20 % of global fertilizer nitrogen production)). Miscanthus could meet the same biomass production with much lower N demand. Moreover, transitioning the U.S land currently under corn- ethanol production to no-till perennial grasses for bioenergy would meet U.S. needs and have additional environmental benefits (such as improved wildlife habitat and soil restoration). Therefore, there are important ecological limits to BCDR and carbon-neutral bioenergy production as well as significant potential benefits depending on implementation. 

The contribution of agroforestry systems to climate change mitigation – Assessment of C storage in soils in a Mediterranean context

R. Cardinael (IRD and AgroParisTech, Montpellier, France), T. Chevallier (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France), A. Germon (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France), C. Jourdan (CIRAD, Montpellier, France), C. Dupraz (INRA, Montpellier, France), B. Barthes (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France), M. Bernoux (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Montpellier, France), C. Chenu (Agroparistech, Grignon, France)

Abstract details
The contribution of agroforestry systems to climate change mitigation – Assessment of C storage in soils in a Mediterranean context

R. Cardinael (1) ; T. Chevallier (2) ; A. Germon (2) ; C. Jourdan (3) ; C. Dupraz (4) ; B. Barthes (2) ; M. Bernoux (2) ; C. Chenu (5)
(1) IRD and AgroParisTech, Umr eco&sols, Montpellier, France; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Umr eco&sols, Montpellier, France; (3) CIRAD, Umr eco&sols, Montpellier, France; (4) INRA, Umr system, Montpellier, France; (5) Agroparistech, Umr ecosys, Grignon, France

Abstract content

Agroforestry is a land use type where crops and trees are grown together in the same place and at the same time. Agroforestry systems have the advantage of providing multiple products (e.g. wood, fruits) or services (e.g. biodiversity enhancement, erosion control) whilst maintaining agricultural production. If they are known to store carbon into the biomass of the trees, they could also increase soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. However their impact has rarely been studied under temperate or Mediterranean conditions and has mostly concerned superficial soil layers. Our objectives were (i) to quantify and spatialize SOC stocks in an agroforestry system and in an adjacent agricultural plot, (ii) to assess what SOC fractions are responsible for possible additional carbon storage, and (iii) to quantify all organic inputs entering the soil. The trial was established in 1995 in southern France. Hybrid walnut trees are intercropped with durum wheat. SOC stocks were measured on 200 soil cores down to 2 m soil depth, and particle-size fractionation was performed on 64 soil samples. Carbon stocks of trees and of the herbaceous vegetation in the tree rows were also quantified. A trench was dug to 4 m soil depth to quantify tree fine root distribution and biomass. Minirhizotrons were installed at different depths to study tree fine root turnover. Annual additional SOC storage rates were estimated at 259 ± 59 kg C ha-1 yr-1 (0-30 cm) and at 350 ± 88 kg C ha-1 yr-1 (0-100 cm). Additional storage was mainly due to particulate organic matter fractions (> 50 µm) and  10 to 15% was associated to clay particles. When the aboveground biomass of the trees was taken into account, total organic carbon storage rate reached 1.11 ± 0.16 Mg C ha-1 yr-1. High tree root densities were observed at depth, but root turnover decreased with depth. Agroforestry systems provide higher amounts of carbon at depth than other agricultural practices, such as no-till farming, and could therefore provide a more stable C storage in the long-term.

 

This study was funded by ADEME within the Agripsol project as part of the Reacctif program.

Analysis of Desertification Process and Impact of Climate Change by using Satellite data in the Algerian Steppe

A. Zegrar (Centre of Spaces Techniques, Arzew, , Algeria)

Abstract details
Analysis of Desertification Process and Impact of Climate Change by using Satellite data in the Algerian Steppe

A. Zegrar (1)
(1) Centre of Spaces Techniques, Observing the earth, Arzew, , Algeria

Abstract content

The degradation of natural resources in arid and semi-arid areas was highlighted dramatically during this century due to population growth and transformation of land use systems. The Algerian steppe has undergone a regression over the past decade due to drought cycle, the extension of areas cultivated in marginal lands, population growth and overgrazing. These phenomena have led to different degradation processes, such as the destruction of vegetation, soil erosion, and deterioration of the physical environment. In this study, the work is mainly based on the criteria for classification and identification of physical parameters for spatial analysis and multi-sources to determine the vulnerability of major steppe formations and their impact on desertification. To do this, we used satellite images Alsat-1 (2009) (IRS 2009) and LANDSAT TM (2001). These cross-sectional data with exogenous information could reduce the impact of climate change in the semi arid ecological diversity of steppe formations. This longitudinal study based on the use of remote sensing data is to analyze the evolution of steppe ecosystems. The application, through specific processes, including the supervised classification was used to characterize the main steppe formations. An analysis of the vulnerability of plant communities was conducted to assign weights and identify areas most susceptible to desertification. Vegetation indices are used to characterize the forest and steppe formations to determine changes in land use.

This study will map the different components of the steppe, highlighting the magnitude of the degradation pathways, which affects the steppe environment, allowing an analysis of the process of desertification in the region.

Innovative strategies to adapt climate change impact on traditional rain fed agriculture in semi arid regions: A case of North Kordofan in Sudan

E. Abdelgalil (university of Gezira, Wad Medani, Sudan)

Abstract details
Innovative strategies to adapt climate change impact on traditional rain fed agriculture in semi arid regions: A case of North Kordofan in Sudan

E. Abdelgalil (1)
(1) university of Gezira, water management and irrigation institute, Wad Medani, Sudan

Abstract content

The purpose of this paper is to develop agricultural and water management strategies to help poor traditional rain fed farmers to adapt climate change impact on agriculture in North Kordofan region in Sudan. Historic climate data from the study area were collected and analyzed using CROPWAT model version 8.0. Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo), effective rainfall and irrigation requirements to develop different sowing dates strategys were also measured using CROPWAT model. Field visits observations and discussion with farmers also helped the author in results justifications. The study found that early sowing dates is better than late sowing in traditional rain fed sector in North Kordofan. Early sowing date secured water for almost 70 days of the crop cycle. Also under early sowing dates, soil moisture can maintain the crop at a later stage of growth. The paper investigated that drought tolerant Sesame crop replaced the millet crop for climate adaptation purposes in North Kordofan. This research study is considered the first to develop agricultural and water management strategies to cope with  climate change impact on traditional rain fed agriculture in North Kordofan, Sudan. The paper highlights innovations farmers are making to adjust to the changes they observe.

Understanding agricultural vulnerability: An approach to identify and understand vulnerability of an agrarian based livelihood system in a watershed area

S. Divya (ATREE, Bangalore,Karnataka, India), S. Badiger (Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Bangalore, India), J. Krishnaswamy (Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Bangalore, India)

Abstract details
Understanding agricultural vulnerability: An approach to identify and understand vulnerability of an agrarian based livelihood system in a watershed area

S. Divya (1) ; S. Badiger (2) ; J. Krishnaswamy (2)
(1) ATREE, Livelihoods, Bangalore,Karnataka, India; (2) Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Bangalore, India

Abstract content

Epistemological understanding of vulnerability and its assessment methods follow two main schools of thought: (1) the ‘contextual vulnerability’, where vulnerability (or inversely resilience) is seen as an inherent characteristic of the system (in our case a socio-ecological system), these confound the manner in which the system responds to external stressors; and (2) the ‘outcome vulnerability’, where the primary focus is on the impacts of a hazard (which is a process in itself driven by some other primary drivers). Indicator based vulnerability studies have gained increasing importance in the last decade, particularly within dominant framing of the climate change along with other structural variables. Within this methodology, indicators are used as proxies in order to quantify components contributing to vulnerability. This is done at either household or community level, or both essentially depending on its intent to identify points of interventions.  The primary weakness of these methods lies in arriving at meaningful weights for the sub-components and the indicators. The assumption of direct causal linkages between indicators and vulnerability is another pertinent factor in these methodologies.

 

We discuss these weaknesses in the methods while applying the conventional indicator approach to an empirical case in semi-arid Karnataka. We compared the effectiveness and usability of indicators to study structural drivers of vulnerability. Household and community scale analysis was carried out in semi-arid region of Karnataka. The agrarian based livelihood in this area is primarily dependent on ground water resources. We used adapted versions of three indicator based vulnerability assessments; Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI), LVI IPCC and the Livelihood Effect Index (LEI). These methods highlighted the main variables driving vulnerability of farming communities in this region. Results indicated that financial sub-components were the largest contributor to both household and community level vulnerability. The LVI-IPCC method indicated that exposure to climatic events was greater than the adaptive capacity and this significantly contributed to vulnerability of the community. Results from the LEI, suggests that individual households in this area will be more affected by climate change than communities.

 

 This study demonstrated the inability of indicator-based methodologies to represent intricate ground realities, which indexes tend to over simplify.  Assumptions of linear two dimensional relationships can inaccurately attribute vulnerability to a particular causal factor. Moreover these methodologies largely ignore the requirement of minimum threshold capitals that determine the functioning state of a system.Based on the results and analysis of this study we suggest a framework for developing methodologies for vulnerability assessment suitable for a particular agro climatic zone. In this framework vulnerability is treated as a dynamic concept moderated by socio economic, socio political processes and human-environment relationships. The framework incorporates the concept of minimum threshold in the capitals ,a concept widely used in “Law of Minimum”, (Justus von Liebig, 1840 ), which propounds that there are capitals that govern the state of a system and growth is determined by the scarcest resource required by the system.  We suggest that there are certain key parameters particular to a specific agro climatic zone that defines the vulnerability of the system. This framework is aimed at providing a pragmatic methodology for comparison of vulnerability across regions in similar agro climatic zones. The framework attempts to map the impacts of coping and adaptive strategies on components of a socio ecological system, through analysis of drivers and enablers of vulnerability within a particular spatial scale, having explicit links to other scales. This can contribute towards developing appropriate policy intervention strategies to facilitate adaptation processes for particular agro climatic zones.

 

 

Lake Chad : present situation and possible future water management

J. Lemoalle (IRD, Montpellier Cx5, France), M. Géraud (Université Paris 1 - Panthéon Sorbonne, Paris, France, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Lake Chad : present situation and possible future water management

J. Lemoalle (1) ; M. Géraud (2)
(1) IRD, G-Eau, Montpellier Cx5, France; (2) Université Paris 1 - Panthéon Sorbonne, Paris, France, Prodig, Paris, France

Abstract content

Lake Chad lies in an endoreic basin located in the centre of Africa, on the southern margin of the Sahara in the semi-arid Sahel belt. The lake  has varied at different time scales according to changes in the rainfall over its basin. In the recent past, after a rather wet period (1950-1970), the lake size has decreased sharply with the Sahel droughts (1970-1995) with occasional drying out of the northern basin of the lake,  before a partial recovery (1995-2015).

Most of the pessimistic declarations in the media about the future of Lake Chad originate from the dry 1980 situation. The present state of the lake, since the beginning of the 2000s, has been that of a moderately low water level, with large marshes and abundant natural resources  (fisheries, recession cultivation and cattle breeding) for an estimated population of 2 million people living on the lake and its shores (2013),  and exporting food in the surrounding region. Endogenous innovations in family agriculture have been the key for the adaptation of the local people to the lake's variability.

The lake recession in the period 1970-1990, concomitant with droughts over the lake's basin, triggered  the decision of the Heads of State of the riparian countries  (Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger) to study the possibility to transfer water from the Congo basin to the Chad basin in order to increase the level in Lake Chad. The  project presently supported by the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) aims at transferring about 6.2 billion cubic metres per year from the Ubangui River, a tributary of the Congo River with a cost estimated at 14.5 billion US dollars.

This transfer would avoid a drying out of the northern part of the lake (about 0.6 million inhabitants) in case of drought over its basin. But it would not allow for a mitigation of the drought impact over the whole Chari basin, the main tributary to the lake, presently home to 35 to 40 million people but foreseen to reach 80 million in 2040.

The question is whether the climatic change underway may increase or not the probability of a drought over the Lake Chad basin. The recent IPCC- AR5 report has concluded that the rainfall trends should be moderate over the Chari basin, but with a great uncertainty and no clear indication on the  direction of the change. In the short term and as a first step, the ongoing and projected LCBC basin wide programmes aiming at increasing agricultural water productivity and resilience to climate change may be usefully developed and increased.

Analysis of Rainfall Characteristics Relevant to Agricultural Planning in Narok County, Kenya

E. Mutuma (Kenya Agricultural Research and Livestock Organization, NAIROBI, Kenya), E. Micheli (Szent Istvan University, Godollo, Hungary), S. Murimi (Kenyatta University, Nairobi, Kenya), V. Land (Szent Istvan University, Godollo, Hungary)

Abstract details
Analysis of Rainfall Characteristics Relevant to Agricultural Planning in Narok County, Kenya

E. Mutuma (1) ; E. Micheli (2) ; S. Murimi (3) ; V. Land (2)
(1) Kenya Agricultural Research and Livestock Organization, soil and water management, NAIROBI, Kenya; (2) Szent Istvan University, Soil science and agricultural chemistry, Godollo, Hungary; (3) Kenyatta University, Geography, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

Climatic factors play an important role in determining the production of food crops in the semi-arid regions of Africa. This is a region characterized by a low and highly variable distribution of rainfall spatially and over time, which constitutes a limiting potential for crop yields. Both short and long rainy periods experience dry spells that substantially influence agriculture. There are also spells where rainfall is excessive in these regions resulting in floods and excessive erosion. Understanding of the behaviour of the wet and dry spells could improve management of the agricultural activities by farmers. The objectives of this study were explore the characteristics of annual and seasonal rainfall and to simulate stochastically the dry and wet spells using Markov models. In-depth interviews were conducted with 120 small-scale farmers to establish what constitutes agriculturally relevant rainfall characteristics for small-scale farmers. Famers’ perceptions reflected seasonality, distribution and intensity. Half of the respondents felt there had been a change in seasonality. Ninety percent of the farmers’ claimed that the amount of rain throughout the first season had decreased with 98% of the respondents having the same sentiments for the second season. A significance test that there is no change in annual rainfall over time resulted in a t-value of 1.7033. The significance level of this t-test is 0.3044; hence there was no statistically significant change in annual rainfall within the study period. The number of days of rainfall shows a significant decrease within the study period for both long and short rain seasons. The risk of suffering losses when crops that are sensitive to dry spells of up to 10 days are planted in March 1st is therefore more than 75 percent. Long dry spells at sensitive times of plant development (germination, flowering, seeding) could spell disaster for farmers. The risk of dry spells after planting have increased over the decades making farming for small-scale agriculturalists even more risky. The findings of the study suggests the need for the development of a comprehensive agricultural and climate change and variability policy that takes into account the mounting risks associated with agricultural production among small holder farmers.

 

Key Words: Rainfall characteristics, Markov models and Agricultural planning.

 

 

 

 

The impact of Climate change to agricultural production of the coastal to reservoirs areas and creation of adaptation mechanisms

P. Normatov (Tajik National University, Dushanbe, Tajikistan)

Abstract details
The impact of Climate change to agricultural production of the coastal to reservoirs areas and creation of adaptation mechanisms

P. Normatov (1)
(1) Tajik National University, Meteorology and Climatology, Dushanbe, Tajikistan

Abstract content

The food products manufacture in Tajikistan already faces many serious difficulties caused mainly prompt growth of the population, mountain topography, limitation of farmlands accessible to grain crops and livestock because of abrupt inclinations both high eminences and improper microclimates. The average mean arable land on the person makes 0.14 ha/person who at comparison with global average 0.26 ha/person is low enough.

 

Researches of dynamics of change of climatic parameters in three agricultural areas adjoining to the Nurek reservoir in Tajikistan have shown that the mid-annual temperature for 20 years (1968-2000) has raised 1.0-1.5 oС that has led to decrease in relative humidity on 3-6 % and to increase potential evaporation on 10-26 % in annually. For example, in the Yavan valley of the Republic of Tajikistan recommended irrigation regimes are connected with the over-expenditure of water resources. Last specifications on irrigation modes to take the Yavan valley on mean annual value of humidity (0.35) to the category of droughty areas. But as show the obtained data, for last 20 years evaporation in a valley has decreased almost on 300 mm (17 %) and the amount of precipitation has risen on 70 mm (11 %). As a result, value of humidity has risen to 0.45. Hence present irrigating norms for cultivation of cotton in the Yavan valley -1100 m3/ha and 3000 m3/ha for a Lucerne are overestimated. Calculations show that unproductive losses of water only on two valleys make more than 60 Mln.m3.

In present paper results of researches on creation scientifically reasonable the scenario and recommendations for cultivation of crops with high value of efficiency and steady against climatic and stressful situations and also increase in efficiency of units of irrigation water and the irrigated lands are presented.

 

 

Strategies of sustainability, green building and climate change in Brazil

J. Rezende (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, Natal - RN, Brazil)

Abstract details
Strategies of sustainability, green building and climate change in Brazil

J. Rezende (1)
(1) Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte - UFRN, Industrial Engineering, Natal - RN, Brazil

Abstract content

            The project Strategies of sustainability, green building and climate change in Brazil has the following general aim: diagnose and provide the development of sustainability strategies of coexistence with the climate change in Brazil.

            In Brazil, the project Strategies of sustainability and climate change in South Africa and Brazil will be operationalized in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, in the city of Caiçara do Rio do Vento (means Fisher of Wind's River). The city has a population of 3,400 inhabitants and is located in the northeastern semi-arid region. The region has an average annual rainfall of 520 mm.

            Global warming has generated greater interaction of human beings difficulties with the land. The main difficulties are related to water supply, thermal discomfort and the difficulty of undertaking agricultural crops that provide subsistence activity to the population. Thus, sustainability strategies are needed to address global warming.

            Was identified that the global warming can be handle with a strategy of sustainable construction. In this case, the sustainable construction is the starting point to create the individual's living condition in the environment that suffers with the warming. The habitat is the starting point for the individual to undertake adequate transformations and living with the weather phenomenon.

            Were developed activities of sustainable construction with natives and students, trying to present and share some sustainable technologies and practices.

            The application of sustainability strategies to a Sustainable Construction is characterized by the following pillars-fundamentals: 1 - Construction and sustainable energy; 2 - Waste management; 3 - Preservation of biodiversity and the ecosystem; 4 - water resources management; 5 - Education, involvement of child and youth in cultural, creativite, environmental, social, inclusive and participatory activities; 6 - Formulation and participation in public policies; 7 - Self / Empowerment / Entrepreneurship; 8 - Tourism;  9 - Agriculture; and 10 - Cultural and Historical rescue and cultural economy.

               Intervention activities was also important to the culture and the development of the cultural economy (music, art, crafts, dance, festivities), also important to sustainability strategies developed in order to deal with climate warming.

            The project Sustainability Strategies and Climate Change in Brazil, from the proposed methodology seeks to accomplish through action-research methodology to collect information and the creation of knowledge about sustainability strategies to deal with global warming. The project will provide the realization of sustainable buildings in the communities served, as well as the transfer of knowledge to local staff, as well as the construction of a collective knowledge of other sustainability strategies that can be developed for better association with global warming.

            It stands out on the farm the adoption of a sustainable management model, a kind of sustainability philosophy was very important to rural properties. The management philosophy was based on an opening to absorb various learnings and openness to volunteering.

            The importance of recycling PET bottle is the fact that the polyethylene terephthalate is a thermoplastic polymer that takes the environment about 400 years to degrade. Given the argument justifies the importance of the activity of researching the recycling and reuse of PET bottles. It's been developed strategies by the Brazilian university Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) to share the findings between rural communities affected by climate warming. The social impacts of the project in the communities was documented in documents, photos and videos. The social impacts provide skills development focused on sustainability. The design of the house with PET was presented in some meetings in order to receive suggestions to improve the construction process proposed. Sustainable building experience in UFRN is also being developed.

The project presents waste management mechanisms to guide communities, municipalities, organisations and businesses regarding the type of sustainability management models to implement and explore innovative methods to improve the relationship with climate change.

Water Crises in a Semi Arid District of Haryana: Trends, Concerns and Alternatives

R. Kumar (Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development, Chandigarh, India), M. K. Teotia (Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRRID), Chandigarh , India)

Abstract details
Water Crises in a Semi Arid District of Haryana: Trends, Concerns and Alternatives

R. Kumar (1) ; MK. Teotia (2)
(1) Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development, BRGF Project, Chandigarh, India; (2) Centre for Research in Rural and Industrial Development (CRRID), Urban Governance and Development Unit (UGDU), Chandigarh , India

Abstract content

Water problems in Asia today are severe—one out of five people (700 million) does not have access to safe drinking water. The stress on Asia’s water resources is likely to intensify in future. According to the IPCC, by 2050, more than one billion people in Asia alone are projected to experience negative impacts on water resources as a result of climate change. In India the average per capita availability of water, estimated at 1,600 cubic meters per year, is expected to fall to around 1,000 cubic meters per year by 2050 based on current population projections. District Mahendergarh of North-western state of Haryana and selected for the study falls in semi-arid zone. Mahendergarh has serious water deficit due to absence of perennial rivers, deep water aquifers (about 40 meters in some blocks), scanty & irregular rainfall etc. The mean annual rainfall in Mahendergarh district is less than 300 mm which is also highly erratic. People receive water in much less quantity than their requirements. The agriculture, forestry and horticulture are affected badly due to unavailability of irrigation water which affects the availability of food grains, vegetables and fruits etc. The desertification is visible in the district. The poor water quality is another serious concern as ground water in many parts of the district is brackish. The paper, based on ongoing research by the authors, tries to explore trends, concerns and alternatives in water crises in District Mahendergarh, Haryana, India.

The role of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in the conservation of water and soil in the Skhour Rhamna drylands (Province of Rhamna, Morocco)

M. Mejjati Alami (IAV Hassan II, Rabat, Morocco), M. Chikhaoui (IAV Hassan II, Rabat, Morocco), I. S. Kanga (IAV Hassan II, Rabat, Morocco)

Abstract details
The role of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in the conservation of water and soil in the Skhour Rhamna drylands (Province of Rhamna, Morocco)

M. Mejjati Alami (1) ; M. Chikhaoui (1) ; IS. Kanga (1)
(1) IAV Hassan II, Natural Resources and Environment, Rabat, Morocco

Abstract content

Seasonal and annual fluctuations in rainfall, and drought, are quite common phenomena in arid lands of Morocco. In addition to anthropogenic activities, these phenomena generate soil erosion, which in turn cause desertification.                 

The conservation of soil and water in these environments relies on adaptive measures, which are necessary to rehabilitate and prevent soil erosion. Therefore, the choice of drought resistant species and the ones having low demands on edaphic conditions is required. In this regard, cactus (Opuntia ficus-indica), can be one of the best choices.

This work was carried out in the rural town of Skhour-Rhamna, an arid area of the province of Rhamna in southern Morocco. We aim to evaluate the effect of planting cactus on the conservation of water and soil. Therefore, we set to study the effects of cactus plantations on the physicochemical properties of soil and vegetation. We used a comparative approach holding cactus plantation in plots with different ages and planting densities and a control plot without planting cactus. Two experimental plots were selected, one with plantation of 3 years of age having a density of 5000 plants / ha, and an older one (6 years) with a planting density of 6700 plants / ha.

We collected soil samples from each plot at different depths, which then were analyzed for organic matter and particle size determination. In parallel, we measured the infiltration rate. We also assessed the vegetation parameters such as the plant cover, the species diversity and abundance.

The results showed that planting cactus has a statistically significant effect on the organic matter content and the plant cover. Plots under cactus plantations showed the best water infiltration rates. So planting cactus in arid zones could conserve soil by reducing runoff and minimizing soil loss by erosion.

 

Keywords: Cactus, conservation, water, soil, arid, soil properties, plant cover, plant diversity.

Investigating climate trends and impacts in semi-arid regions of Africa and South Asia: implications for climate change adaptation and development

M. Zaroug (ACDI/ CSAG at University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), J. Daron (UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), A. Bazaz, ((Indian Institute for Human Settlements), Bangalore, India)

Abstract details
Investigating climate trends and impacts in semi-arid regions of Africa and South Asia: implications for climate change adaptation and development

M. Zaroug (1) ; J. Daron (2) ; A. Bazaz, (3)
(1) ACDI/ CSAG at University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; (2) UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; (3) (Indian Institute for Human Settlements), Bangalore, India

Abstract content

  Semi-arid regions, such as the African Sahel, are typically located in the boundary between extremely dry (e.g. arid) and much wetter (e.g. humid subtropical) climate zones. The semi-arid regions of Africa and South Asia are subject to high year-to-year rainfall variability and people living in these regions are particularly exposed to the impacts of climate variability and climate change; the success of the seasonal rains can be critical to people’s survival and their livelihoods. As the Earth warms, trends towards harsher or more productive climatic conditions will therefore have significant consequences for how people in semi-arid regions live with the environment and sustain their livelihoods.

 

The Adaptation at Scale in Semi-Arid Regions (ASSAR) project is one of four projects being funded through the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA). We will present the latest evidence and understanding of climate-related variability and trends, in the semi-arid regions of Africa and South Asia, gathered by scientists working in the Climate and Biophysical Impact (CBI) team of ASSAR. In general, the weight of evidence suggests that climate change is having largely adverse effects on natural systems supporting people’s livelihoods in semi-arid regions of Africa and South Asia. Temperatures in these regions are rising at above global average rates and in some locations this is leading to measurable impacts on human and natural systems. However, significant year-to-year and longer-term variability in rainfall patterns means that any attribution of rainfall trends to global climate change is complicated. Also, future projections show large disagreements in the direction of rainfall changes and climate models are subject to large uncertainties that complicate any interpretation of climate messages. Ultimately the impacts of climate change on human and biophysical systems will manifest themselves through the combined effect of changes in temperature, rainfall, humidity and other climate-related variables. Moreover, it is only by understanding specific system sensitivities and adaptive capacities that useful information can be derived to support adaptation research and practice. Examples of how climate variability and change is impacting socio-ecological systems in semi-arid regions of Africa and south Asia will be provided.

 

The CBI team is made up of climate scientists, crop modellers, hydrologists, ecologists and social scientists. In the first year of the project the team developed a series of “Regional Climate Messages” documents that were produced for the four regions under investigation, namely Southern Africa, East Africa, West Africa and India. The documents provide information about historical and future climate aimed at informing policymakers, practitioners and researchers working in these regions – key results will be shared. In addition, the team is continuing to work alongside colleagues in the ASSAR project to provide tailored information that can directly feed into the adaptation-focused research. Ultimately the wider ASSAR project research aims to both generate transferable knowledge related to issues of adaptation across multiple scales of governance and to develop transformative scenarios that influence adaptation and development planning in the focus regions.

Are Smart Policies Really Smart? Analyzing the Implications of Smart Policies on Risk Management in India

C. Singh (Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India), P. Mudliar (Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India), A. Rahman (Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India)

Abstract details
Are Smart Policies Really Smart? Analyzing the Implications of Smart Policies on Risk Management in India

C. Singh (1) ; P. Mudliar (1) ; A. Rahman (1)
(1) Indian Institute for Human Settlements, Bangalore, India

Abstract content

Since the new government’s ascent into power in India, there has been much focus on creating ‘smart’ policies. Two such ‘smart’ discourses  are smart cities in urban areas and climate smart agriculture (CSA) in rural areas, both of which focus on addressing development deficits and planning for climatic risks in India. This paper critically analyses these discourses to understand their implications on negotiating inherent socio-economic vulnerabilities and existing inequalities, and managing current and future climate risks.

Smart cities have been vigorously projected as the Prime Minister’s pet project with $1.2 billion allocated for developing 100 smart cities in India. The idea of smart cities has been greeted in India with an equal measure of hype and skepticism. Although there is still no clear consensus on  what a smart city means, it is generally agreed that ‘smart’ refers to using technology to solve urban problems. In a country that still lacks basic housing, water, and energy infrastructure, as well as access to health and education services, there is much debate about whether smart cities will be able to address these pressing issues. Moreover, apart from a draft concept note, India lacks a national policy on smart cities. The recent budget avoided the term ‘smart city’, allocating funds to the Delhi-Mumbai corridor and Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT), India’s first smart city, instead. In the absence of a well-defined policy, there are concerns over how the $1.2 billion will be utilized for urban development and whether it will mainstream climate risk management. It is also unclear how cities in already stressed environments such as in semi-arid regions, will evolve to negotiate development and climate risk management goals.

In rural landscapes, agriculture  is constrained by various non-climatic dynamics such as deteriorating soil fertility, depleting groundwater levels, market dynamics tied in with global price fluctuations, and migration towards urban centres. Increasing climatic variability and projected climate change, especially in resource-constrained areas such as semi-arid regions in India, are expected to interact with existing vulnerabilities, exacerbating them and potentially making agriculture an unsustainable livelihood. To address this growing concern, climate smart agriculture (CSA) has emerged as a way to mainstream a suite of mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help make agriculture and agricultural livelihoods more resilient to climatic changes. In 2011, the Government of India set up the National Institute for Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA) with a budgetary allocation of $64.81 million. With a core mandate of  long-term strategic research on the impacts of projected climate change on Indian agriculture and demonstration of existing best practices to help farmers cope with current climate variability, NICRA is a crucial actor in India’s CSA discourse.

In light of these developments, this paper traces the evolution of the smart policy discourse in India by examining the evolution of  smart cities in urban areas and CSA in rural areas as well as the key actors and organizations shaping these discourses. By doing so we contribute to the larger smart city discourse that has begun to shun the term ‘smart city’ and questions whether it has become a term that has reached the end of its usefulness. We also argue that while CSA forefronts vulnerability to climate change, it potentially obscures larger development issues and inherent vulnerabilities. There is also the danger of old wine in a new bottle where existing agroecological techniques that have been practised by farmers traditionally, are being repackaged to make their livelihoods ‘smart’. While the investment such a discursive shift attracts is useful, we argue that it is important to understand how such policy trajectories create winners and losers.  

In conclusion, while the term smart invokes a variety of desirable visions of a utopia where technology is used to operate infrastructure achieving efficiency and sustainability, we argue that it is important to question whether ‘smart’ policies truly makes rural and urban living and livelihoods more resilient to current and future climatic risks.

Crop supplemental irrigation experiences in Burkina Faso

B. Zongo (International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), D. Abdoulaye, (International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), B. Barbier (CIRAD , Dakar , Senegal), D. Thomas, (Univesrité de Liège, Gembloux, Belgium)

Abstract details
Crop supplemental irrigation experiences in Burkina Faso

B. Zongo (1) ; D. Abdoulaye, (2) ; B. Barbier (3) ; D. Thomas, (4)
(1) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (2) International Institute for Water and Environmental Engineering (2iE), Laboratoire d'hydraulogie et des ressources en eau, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) CIRAD , Umr geau, Dakar , Senegal; (4) Univesrité de Liège, Department of rural economic and development, Gembloux, Belgium

Abstract content

This study assesses the impact of supplemental irrigation from small man-made basins on cereal production in climate variability and change context marked by dry spells in the Sahelian zone of Burkina Faso. After two years, the experiments showed that this innovation in family farms increases maize yield and allows growing a second crop with the surplus of water available in the basin. At the end of the 2012-2013 campaign, the average maize yield was estimated 2.5t/ha on experimental plots (EP) and 1.7t/ha on control plots (CP). The average yield of the 2013-2014 campaign was evaluated as 3.3T/ha and 0.9t/ha for EP and CP respectively. Increase in yield is 0.8t/ha for the 2012-2013 campaign and 2.4t/ha during 2013-2014. It appears as well as the yield obtained on EP in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 for bridging cereal need of 2 and 6 additional persons respectively in agricultural households compared to the CP. The review of the Net present value, internal rate of return and the Net benefits increase ratio show that the profitability to practice supplemental irrigation depends on the types of basins.

Studies of Long Term Changes in Climate and Environment in South-East Georgia – A Key for Sustainable Development

M. Elashvili (Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia), K. Kvilividze (Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia), L. Navrozashvili (Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia), L. Sukhishvili (Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia)

Abstract details
Studies of Long Term Changes in Climate and Environment in South-East Georgia – A Key for Sustainable Development

M. Elashvili (1) ; K. Kvilividze (2) ; L. Navrozashvili (2) ; L. Sukhishvili (2)
(1) Ilia State University, School of Natural Sciences and Engineering, Tbilisi, Georgia; (2) Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

Abstract content

Recognizing the fact that we are living in a constantly changing world became actual during the last decades, and promoted numerous studies related to environmental consequences of climate change and human impact. In this sense, study of past changes in environment and, its effect on human society coupled with better understanding of current state of the environment delivers key information to project future changes and their effect.

South-East Georgia represents natural polygon of long term changes in the environment to be caused by combination of natural and anthropogenic factors. In the convention adopted by UN in 1994 on 12th of September - A/AC.241/27, among the regions which are under the risk of desertification and draught Trans Caucasus is also mentioned. On the map developed in 1998 by natural resources and conservation service of US Department of Agriculture Iori upland is situated in the area of moderate, high and very high risk. The semi-arid Iori and Shiraqi highlands in South-East Georgia are characterized with annual precipitation <600mm and shows open steppic landscape today. However archaeological studies deliver evidences of well-developed bronze and early Iron Age settlements in the areas almost devoid of water resources today. Archaeo-Botanic studies also assume that the region was covered by forests instead of steppes.

The goal of current study is: to shed light on historic changes in the environment of the region, its natural and anthropogenic factors and consequently response of human society on these changes; to assess rate and scale of ongoing desertification process during the past decades; to project future possible changes in the environment and based on past experience elaborate adaptation and mitigation policy.

The proposed investigation is focused on identifying the source of modern changes to the environment in South-East Georgia and to discern the relationships of this environmental change to current and past actions of the human population. Long-term, sub-regional records of these changes will be constructed in terms of: 1) physical changes of vegetation; 2) changing patterns of land use/land cover, and settlement; and 3) changing aspects of land quality in relation to agriculture.

Climate change is a serious challenge to sustainable development. Historical study of desertification, as one of the main consequences of climate change coupled with anthropogenic stress, can provide valuable materials for understanding the mechanisms of climate change. Research and understanding of these mechanisms are very important in order to come up with the solutions for sustainable development; therefore the present research (project) will ultimately contribute to developing long term mitigation and resilient strategies and policies for sustainable development of the region.

Managing of risks in Agriculture: Benefits of Conservation of forest resources in Anambra State, Nigeria

O. Ogbonna (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Managing of risks in Agriculture: Benefits of Conservation of forest resources in Anambra State, Nigeria

O. Ogbonna (1)
(1) University of Nigeria, Agricultural Extension, Nsukka, Enugu State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Forest management offers a promising alternative to depletion of forest resources. Continuous degradation of the forest reserve base has major effects on other segments of the economy. This includes reduction of forest cover leading to erosion and soil degradation. This study assessed the roles of farmers in conservation of forest resources; benefits of conservation of forest resources in the area and reasons for loss of forest resources in the area. Multi-stage sampling procedure was used to select 120 respondents for the study. Data were analysed with the use of descriptive statistics. Results show that reasons for loss of forest resources in the area included: excessive farming (M=2.8) and rapid urbanisation (M=2.0). Roles of farmers in conserving forest resources were: avoidance of illegal hunting and poaching (M=3.0), practicing continuous forestation (M=3.2) and prevention of bush burning in forest areas (M=3.3). Benefits of Conservation of forest resources in the area included: protection of forest cover (M=2.3), prevention of climate change (M=2.4) and retaining economic benefits from the forest (2.5). Hence it was recommended that there should proper planning for farming and urbanisation for conservation of forest resources in the area.  

Linking adaptation and mitigation in carbon sequestration projects: evidence from Belize

R. Kongsager (UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark), E. Corbera (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Linking adaptation and mitigation in carbon sequestration projects: evidence from Belize

R. Kongsager (1) ; E. Corbera (2)
(1) UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark; (2) Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

We develop a multi-dimensional framework to explore the extent to which carbon forestry initiatives integrate adaptation concerns, and use three Belizean projects as case material. We demonstrate that the rhetoric of linking mitigation and adaptation is not easy to hold, because the mandate of forest carbon markets does not incorporate adaptation concerns. Projects' contribution to adaptation relate to unintended forestry and biodiversity aspects while, critically, their mitigation potential is debatable and their livelihood outcomes are limited in scope and relevance. We conclude that integration of adaptation and mitigation in Belize's carbon offset projects remains a laudable but elusive goal.

Community based Climate Change Adaptation: a Case of Community forestry programme in Nepal

N. K. Bk (Kathmandu University, Kathmandu, Bagmati , Nepal)

Abstract details
Community based Climate Change Adaptation: a Case of Community forestry programme in Nepal

NK. Bk (1)
(1) Kathmandu University, Department of Development Studies, Kathmandu, Bagmati , Nepal

Abstract content

Community forestry programme is a major community based climate change adaptation (BCCA) and potential mitigation strategy; recognized by climate change policy and National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) of Nepal. In these regards, some community forestry user groups (CFUGs), in the support of donor organizations , are implementing practices of community based adaption plan, establishing fund as well as creating institutions to benefit from REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) mechanism. However, there are very little evidences about the strength and limitations of such practices and its impacts on wider socio-economic development of vulnerable community.

Based on the paper presenter’s 10 years long experience in the issues and the study of six community forest user groups, three from each of DFID/UK and CARE supported groups, the finding shows that the programme is suitable mechanism for planned, decentralized, cost effective, linked and inclusive adaptation strategies. The programme is initiated and groups are formed to address the issues of natural hazards and mal-adaptation practices the local people followed previously in responses to local changes. The groups adopt bottom up planning process to identify vulnerability and prepare adaption plan, collaborative effort to establish matching fund to implement prioritized activities and coordinating mechanism to integrate these activities into wider development programme.  These practices increased the livelihoods security of marginal groups through increasing human and food security and forest product availability, building social capitals, use of indigenous knowledge and providing alternative livelihoods to the landless poor members, and deriving benefits from development service providers.

While community forestry policies and practices of Nepal seem climate change friendly exclusions persists and people who are member of the groups have opportunity to get benefit from the adaptation fund while there are some households/communities are excluded from the groups. Also, limitation on extraction of forest products is in some instances undermining the livelihoods strategies of the forest dependant people limiting their adaptation capacity. There are also issues of resource access with members in particular can be constrained by poorly aligned jurisdiction.

The finding shows that the programme promotes entry points for pro-poor mitigation strategies. The growing stock of forest particularly in hills increased and the community forestry user groups have established resource distribution system based on wealth ranking of the groups, the mitigation strategies specifically the REDD mechanism may benefit to the poor category of the users. However, we find that the executive committees of CFUGs are politicized and the political ideology affects resource distribution. Also, there are high value forest trees, the illegal sale of which offers considerable financial intensives. So, particularly in the Terai, the conservation and management of forest may be competing with very high opportunity costs. Also, there are significant issues of land tenure conflicts between people and Government, VDCs (Village Development Committee), and communities, the result of which does not favor the protection, management and conservation of forest. 

The findings suggest that CBCCA approach needs to integrate in rural development policies at landscape level. As the groups are growing as a local adaption funding institutions, the role of CFUGs should be linked with sources of credit and low-interest loans.  To increase the community forest for mitigation, climate change sensitive forest management guidelines needs to developed and linked with national forestry activities. In addition, there is value in exploring PES (Payment for environmental services) and carbon markets more broadly than strictly REDD mechanism; Community forestry stakeholders should undertake experiential marketing of forest carbon in a volunteer market.

 

Potential Risk of Wildfire under Climate Change in Croatia

M. Vucetic (METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE, ZGREB, Croatia)

Abstract details
Potential Risk of Wildfire under Climate Change in Croatia

M. Vucetic (1)
(1) METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE, AGROMETEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, ZGREB, Croatia

Abstract content

The weather conditions such as a long-lasting dry spell and insolation duration, high air temperature and strong wind essentially increase the potential risk for starting and spreading of wildfires. All these relevant factors are observed on the Croatian Adriatic coast and islands and lead to the conclusion that the Adriatic area is prone to wildfires during summer season. The main goal is to research the regional impact of climate change on the potential greater risk of wildfires in Croatia from May to September. Monthly and seasonal severity rating (MSR and SSR) are used as indices for the potential risk assessment of forest fires which are one of the products of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. According to the map presentation of mean long-term seasonal severity ratings for the standard climatic period 1961-1990, the most endangered area is the mid-Adriatic coast with the adjacent islands. Using the secular weather series of Crikvenica and Hvar in the period (1901-2014), which represent the northern and middle Croatian coast and islands respectively, the secular variations of MSR has been estimated. In order to establish the eventual increase in potential wildfire risk on the Croatian mountainous hinterland and lowlands the secular data of Gospic, Zagreb-Gric and Osijek has also been used for the MSR assessment. A significant monthly increase (significant level is 0.05) in the MSR was observed for Crikvenica for all months of the period considered and for Hvar in June and July. This increase is particularly important for June, as it indicates the possibility of the earlier onset of the forest fire season on the Adriatic area. The analysis also showed spreading of high potential risk of wildfire from the mid-Adriatic to the northern, especially in July and August in the last 114 years. However, positive trend of potential risk of wildfire noticed in the eastern part of Croatia in the last 64 years. Tendency of increase the potential risk of wildfires in Croatia is in accordance with the projections of climate change. Thus, forest fire regime in our country fits well into the larger picture of increasing areas of high threat of wildfires in the Mediterranean and Eastern Europe in the summer months in future.

Disentangling the climate change contributions of CO2 emissions from global forest bioenergy

F. Cherubini (Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway)

Abstract details
Disentangling the climate change contributions of CO2 emissions from global forest bioenergy

F. Cherubini (1)
(1) Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway

Abstract content

Many future energy and emission scenarios envisage an increase of bioenergy production in the global primary energy mix [1]. Bioenergy is the most important renewable energy option in studies designed to align with future RCP projections, reaching approximately 250 EJ/yr in RCP2.6, 145 EJ/yr in RCP4.5 and 180 EJ/yr in RCP8.5 by the end of the 21st century. However, many questions enveloping the direct carbon cycle and climate response to bioenergy systems remain open and partially unexplored. While the climate change effects of the different greenhouse gases (GHGs) are usually aggregated into common units (e.g., radiative forcing, CO2-equivalents, or °C), for example using emission metrics like the well-known global warming potential (GWP) or Global Temperature change Potential (GTP) [2], emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are not implemented in global emission scenarios. Bioenergy systems are largely assessed under the default climate neutrality assumption and the time lag between CO2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO2 uptake by vegetation is usually ignored, with integrated assessment models and policy directives mainly focused on the quantification and mitigation of the risks associated with deforestation and land use changes. Whereas recent studies show that the temperature change of CO2 emissions from re-growing biomass is characterized by an initial warming followed by a smaller long term cooling [3], an analysis that disentangles the role of CO2 emissions from bioenergy with a global coverage and within the policy relevant framework linking temperature peak and emissions is still missing [4]. Here, the characteristics of the climate system response to CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy is investigated within the 2 °C target and global spatially explicit maps of emission metrics for the climate impact characterization of CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy are produced. These metrics can be used to unravel the contributions to climate change of CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy, as here exemplified by assessing these emissions under the RCP8.5 scenario. The metrics are correlated with the site-specific turnover times and local climate variables and the characterized results are sensitive to the specific metrics used that inform about different dimensions of the climate system response to forest bioenergy. The temperature peak from bioenergy CO2 emissions is proportional to the maximum rate at which emissions occur and is nearly insensitive to the amount of cumulative emissions. While the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) of CO2 from fossil fuels is approximately constant, the TCRE to bioenergy emissions depends on time, biomass turnover times, and emission scenarios. The linearity between temperature peak and bioenergy CO2 emission rates thus resembles the response to short-lived climate forcers. As for the latter, the timing of CO2 emissions from bioenergy matters. Under the international agreement to limit global warming to 2 °C by 2100, early emissions from bioenergy have smaller contributions on the targeted temperature than emissions postponed later into the future. The application of these metrics to CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy in the RCP8.5 scenario shows that emissions in 2015 cause a warming effect that is about 45% (expected range: 38-60%) of the gross emission flows when GWPs are used. On the other hand, the result in 2100 is a net climate cooling if GTPs are applied. A temperature peak about 35% (12-46%) less than that caused by an equal amount of emissions from fossil fuels is found. Without coupling the analysis with global climate models, CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy can thus be assessed under different climate change indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales using the global maps presented in this study. 

[1] Van Vuuren DP, Elie Bellevrat, Kitous A, & Isaac M (2010) The Energy Journal 31:193-221; [2] Myhre G, et al. (2013) Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC eds Stocker TF, et al.; [3] Cherubini F, Bright RM, & Strømman AH (2012)  Environmental Research Letters 8(1): 014049; [4] Cherubini F, Gasser T, Bright RM, Ciais P, & Stromman AH (2014) Nature Clim. Change 4:983–987.

A bioeconomic modelling of logged tropical forests to simulate low-carbon strategies for Central African concessions

F. Claeys (Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Montpellier, France), P. Delacote (French National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA), Nancy, France), S. Gourlet-Fleury (Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Montpellier, France), A. Karsenty (Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Montpellier, France), F. Mortier (Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
A bioeconomic modelling of logged tropical forests to simulate low-carbon strategies for Central African concessions

F. Claeys (1) ; P. Delacote (2) ; S. Gourlet-Fleury (1) ; A. Karsenty (1) ; F. Mortier (1)
(1) Centre for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Tropical Forest Goods and Ecosystem Services (BSEF), Montpellier, France; (2) French National Institute of Agricultural Research (INRA), Laboratory of forest economics (lef), Nancy, France

Abstract content

Among the contributions expected from forest sectors in policies of climate mitigation, one consists in increasing forest carbon stocks by changing management practices. This activity, generally referred to as Improved Forest Management (IFM), is of major importance in the Congo Basin forests, where 20 millions of hectares are now managed for timber production. The carbon benefit generated by IFM activities is often obtained by a reduction of harvesting pressures on forest resources. In the case of Extension of Rotation Age/Cutting Cycle (ERA) projects, the reduction of emissions comes from the increase of Minimum Cutting Diameters (MCD) and/or the extension of Felling Cycle Duration (FCD). However, such activities have negative consequences for the profitability of timber companies. Climate instruments such as the mechanism of Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+) promote a compensatory approach to cover these income losses by the valuation of avoided carbon emissions.

To determine the feasibility of such a carbon-based compensation, it is necessary to predict over the long term both the dynamics of forest carbon and the time schedule of timber incomes. The two are closely interrelated. Selective logging can alter the structure, the floristic composition, and thus, the carbon stocks of tropical forests. Modelling these forest-logging relationships is challenging. Selective logging implies to deploy a species level representation of timber harvesting but the high diversity of tropical forests, in pair with the scarcity of data, hinders the correct fitting of species-specific models.

We developed a bioeconomic approach coupling a mixture of inhomogeneous matrix models for forest dynamics and an object-oriented model for forest logging companies’ operations. For forest dynamics, our methodology addresses the challenge of taking into account the high species richness by simultaneously clustering tree species into groups according to vital rate information and selecting group-specific explicative environmental variables. For the logging operations, the object-oriented approach allows us to precisely describe harvest choices under technical and economic constraints, in a highly configurable manner. In the case of a Central African forest concession managed by a typical sawnwood export-oriented company, we predicted the carbon stock evolution for a wide range of ERA scenarios and for a time scale of 100 years. For several categories of carbon credit, we calculated break-even prices that would enable carbon revenues to compensate logger’s loss of timber incomes.

Our simulations are based on data from the M’Baïki site, in the Central African Republic (CAR), which has been monitored for 30 years through a collaborative partnership with various French and CAR institutional and research organizations. Economic data are taken from several forest concessionaires in Central Africa. We predicted that without any logging, carbon stock would increase naturally. When logging was simulated, the carbon stock decreased during the first felling cycle and although carbon recovery could be boosted by logging, this decrease was too sharp to catch up with unlogged levels. To ensure low break-even prices of carbon credits, ERA activities had to involve both FCD and MCD. In this case, we found a little dependence of the private discount rate and the alternative MCD and FCD, but a strong dependence of the way how carbon credits are accounted. Thus, from the perspective of the forest concessionaire, depending of the chosen type of credits, carbon revenues could compensate timber revenues for a large number of ERA projects.

We focused on IFM projects, but our approach remains appropriate for other strategies of forest sustainability improvement such as Reduced Impact Logging techniques or post-logging silvicultural systems. In the current context of REDD+ deployment, our work is a first step to bring some preliminary answers to the question of carbon-based compensation opportunities for industrial forest concessions in Central Africa, on the basis of an accurate modelling of tropical forestry.

Population growth and deforestation in the Lake Albert region (Uganda) at the start of oil production

V. Golaz (INED, Paris, France), C. Médard (IRD, Paris, France), F. Kisekka-Ntale (DRASPAC, Kampala, Uganda)

Abstract details
Population growth and deforestation in the Lake Albert region (Uganda) at the start of oil production

V. Golaz (1) ; C. Médard (2) ; F. Kisekka-Ntale (3)
(1) INED, Paris, France; (2) IRD, Paris, France; (3) DRASPAC, Kampala, Uganda

Abstract content

Population growth and deforestation in the Lake Albert region (Uganda) at the start of oil production

- Claire Médard, IRD-URMIS (UMR 205 Université de Paris Diderot, Université de Nice and IRD)

- Valérie Golaz, INED - LPED (UMR 151 Aix Marseille Université, IRD)

- Fredrick Kisekka-Ntale, DRASPAC, Uganda

- and the M-PRAM team.

 

In the early colonial days, a deep political and demographic crisis hit the eastern shores of Lake Albert, Uganda (Doyle). Large areas were then set aside as forest and game reserves. Later on migratory policies and practices shifted and the area became a land frontier. Migrant settlement was encouraged by government from the 1950s onwards. New settlements were promoted by the Ugandan State in response to international refugee crises, as well as national demand for land. Land patronage led to repeated encroachments on protected areas and severe deforestation. Since the 1990s, both the institutional role of central government, acting through a variety of bodies (the administration, the army, the forestry and wildlife services, etc.), and political patronage have consolidated Museveni’s regime in somewhat contradictory ways. These contradictions shape access to land and natural resources locally at the start of a new oil frontier.  Through a detailed mapping of population densities and growth and an analysis of qualitative interviews conducted in 2012-2014 in a collaborative research framework (M-PRAM, CPAS - IRD, Makerere University), we highlight increased vulnerability and inequalities as well as potential conflicts. Although climate variability is a factor of change locally, the short term issue shaping resource depletion is governance.

National Strategy for Adaption to Climate Change in Hemiboreal Estonia: Forestry

H. Tullus (Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia), M. Suškevi?s (Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia), A. Tullus (University of Tartu , Tartu, Estonia), R. Lutter (Estonian University of Life Sciences, Tartu, Estonia)

Abstract details
National Strategy for Adaption to Climate Change in Hemiboreal Estonia: Forestry

H. Tullus (1) ; M. Suškevi?s (2) ; A. Tullus (3) ; R. Lutter (1)
(1) Estonian University of Life Sciences, Instititute of forestry and rural engineering, Tartu, Estonia; (2) Estonian University of Life Sciences, Institute of agricultural and environmental sciences, Tartu, Estonia; (3) University of Tartu , Institute of ecology and earth sciences, Tartu, Estonia

Abstract content

Climate change can considerably affect ecosystems and different bioeconomy-sectors. In addition to climate change mitigation it is important to know relevant adaptation options. Many EU states already have national adaptation strategies and action plans. Estonia will have a comprehensive national adaptation strategy and action plan in 2016.

The special project for adaptation policies in Estonia is created in 2015: „Climate change adaptation strategy and measures for thematic fields of natural environment and bioeconomy: BioClim.” (http://pk.emu.ee/en/structure/landscapemanagement/projects/bioclim/project/).

There is a chapter about forestry in the National Strategy Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in Estonia. Also in the Estonian Forestry Development Plan until 2020 the climate change impacts and mitigation is concerned (http://www.envir.ee/sites/default/ files/elfinder/article_files/mak2020vastuvoetud.pdf).

Basic studies about climate change impact on functioning of forest ecosystems are conducted in Estonia in the Free Air Humidity Manipulation Experiment (FAHM, https://sisu.ut.ee/fahm1/main). FAHM experimental facility was created in collaboration with researchers of plant ecophysiology, applied ecology and forestry from University of Tartu and Estonian University of Life Sciences. FAHM is a unique open-air experiment where acclimation and functioning of trees and forest stands under elevated atmospheric humidity conditions is studied. Results of FAHM and their theoretical interpretation is a basis for prognosis of climate change impact on Estonian forest ecosystems and life activities of trees.

Climate change will likely cause significant long-term changes in the entire Estonian forest sector. The main impacts of climate change for hemiboreal forests and forest management in Estonia are:

  • The proportions of tree species and balance between coniferous and deciduous forests will change.

  • Forest industry must consider with changes in local wood assortment.

  • The quality of timber may reduce.

  • Extreme weather events may cause considerable and unavoidable damage.

  • The risk of wind damages will increase.

  • The reduced period of frozen ground makes timber harvesting more difficult.

  • Increasing precipitation means more investment into forest roads and ditches.

  • One of the most important possible hazards associated with climate change concerns forest pests and diseases, especially outbreaks of invasive diseases and mass production of insect pests.

  • Novel adaptation methods must be elaborated in forest plant production, tree selection and breeding, tending of forests, forest protection, felling systems and forest pathology.

Multiple trade-offs in forest management facing climate change

J.-L. Peyron (ECOFOR, PARIS, France)

Abstract details
Multiple trade-offs in forest management facing climate change

JL. Peyron (1)
(1) ECOFOR, PARIS, France

Abstract content

Forests are able to mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration, storage, and substitution. But these different options are generally conflicting. How should they be combined? This question is a first major challenge for forest management and policy. In parallel, forests are impacted by climate change through trends (beneficial or detrimental) and extreme events. They may adapt and deserve to be adapted to these gradual or brutal phenomena. Integration of trends and extreme events is a second major challenge for forestry. Adaptation and mitigation have to be distinguished because they are very different responses to climate change. In the same time, they are interrelated since mitigation supports carbon regulation as an ecosystem service influenced by forest adaptation. Synergies and trade-offs between forest adaptation and mitigation are a third challenge. Finally, climate change issues are only a part of sustainable forest management and trade-offs also exist between climate change measures and sustainability at large. This presentation will comment these four issues from models running at national and stand levels.

At national scale, the carbon balance of French forests will be projected over the 21st century according to scenarios combining various harvest options with different climate change intensities. At stand level, a micro economic model will combine trends and extreme events, mitigation options and climate change impacts in order to find the best rotation age. The results of these models at two different scales will then be discusses in the frame of sustainable forest management.

Community Based Forest Management for Future Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation – Evidences from Northwestern Mountain Region of Pakistan

K. Iqbal (University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan)

Abstract details
Community Based Forest Management for Future Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation – Evidences from Northwestern Mountain Region of Pakistan

K. Iqbal (1)
(1) University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Faisalabad, Pakistan

Abstract content

Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to global climate change and people living in these areas are first to be affected because their livelihoods are dependent on natural resources (land, pastures, water and forests). Natural forests are a vital component of the daily lives of the mountain communities and it is well documented that degradation in forest resources has adverse effects on the livelihoods of these communities. Forest protection through sustainable forest management strategies is considered as an alternate strategy to mitigate the negative consequences of climate change but the governments of developing countries face many challenges regarding forest management due to poor top-down governance and corruption. Participatory forest management has emerged as an effective strategy for sustainable forest governance. In this perspective this paper reports the findings of an ongoing research projects regarding community based forest management and its link with climate change in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan. KP province is less developed as compared to other provinces of the country, and its mountain areas are among the least developed regions. This area is regarded as highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Farming, one of the major livelihood activity and is a main source of food for the local dwellers, is dependent on the climatic and weather conditions. Similarly, forest resources are also important for household income and meeting the needs for fuel for cooking.

In response to very high deforestation in the mountainous regions of KP, the government initiated the process of community based forest management in the province with the objective to reduce forest depletion with the help of community participation.

This paper attempts to analyze the impact of community forest management on climate change mitigation efforts as well as on the livelihoods of local communities.  The paper also attempts to answer the question that how the efforts of the state and communities regarding climate change mitigation are augmented (or otherwise) with the change of system. More specifically, the paper addresses the following questions: 

  1. What are the patterns of climate change in the study area?

  2. What is the impact of participatory forest management on livelihoods of local communities?

  3. How local livelihoods and farming practices changing with time and what are the coping strategies of farmers in the event of climate extremes? 

  4. What are the perceptions of local people regarding sustainable forest management and climate change mitigation in the context of participatory forest management?

  5. What is the link of participatory forest management with future climate change mitigation and adaptation?

Key-informant interviews and focus group discussion was used to collect information from farmers of selected villages. Life histories of some respondents were also recorded find-out how changes in forest management paradigm are linked with livelihoods and farming practices and climate change

Climatic impacts on managed forests: predicting the future from the past

S. Martel (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), D. Picart (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), A. Bosc (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), C. Moisy (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), S. Lafont (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), D. Loustau (INRA, Villenave d'Ornon, France), O. Picard (CNPF, Paris, France), V. Badeau (INRA, Champenoux, France), N. Bréda (INRA, Champenoux, France), J. Boiffin (INRA, Champenoux, France)

Abstract details
Climatic impacts on managed forests: predicting the future from the past

S. Martel (1) ; D. Picart (1) ; A. Bosc (1) ; C. Moisy (1) ; S. Lafont (1) ; D. Loustau (1) ; O. Picard (2) ; V. Badeau (3) ; N. Bréda (3) ; J. Boiffin (3)
(1) INRA, Ispa, Villenave d'Ornon, France; (2) CNPF, Idf, Paris, France; (3) INRA, Eef ecologie et ecophysiologie forestières, Champenoux, France

Abstract content

Forests are one of the most vulnerable ecosystem under the coming climate change and a growing concern arise about their capacity to maintain ecosystem services such as production of timber, fiber and energy, climate and hydrological regulations, or soil and biodiversity protection. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale, but also on the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle, e.g. through continuous shifts in atmospheric CO2 concentration, air temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. This will affect not only the functioning of forests in situ but also the range and geographical distribution of forest tree species and therefore the spatial distribution of ecosystem services and production across countries and continents.

The long term sustainable management of European forests must account for these dynamic changes and the interactions between climate and forests. Observations of forest functioning growth and distribution for the last decades provide a rich information about forest response to climatic shifts and extreme events and the way management interplays with these impacts.

We present in this communication how two modeling approaches for predicting the future of managed forest at country scale might optimize past observations to strengthen their likelihood and reduce uncertainty of their projections. In situ observation networks such as flux tower networks (FLUXNET, ICOS), ICP forest network and National Forest Inventories are the main data sources used.

The climate niche modeling predicts the potential distribution of forest species in the geographic domain using past observations of climate and water balance and presence/absence of tree species. Results show an expected poleward shift of forest biomes or species due to global warming and water balance changes that may reach several 10s to 100s of km during the 21st century. Similarly, a process based model can be calibrated and evaluated using past observations to predict forest functioning as forced by climate scenarios. The energy balance and the carbon and water cycles in the soil-plant-atmosphere system are modeled at an hourly scale and integrated over an annual basis. As one of the main disturbance in the temperate forests, management is integrated through practices such as ploughing, thinning or clearcutting.

Long time series of flux measurements in monospecific forest stands are used to calibrate the model while adjusting parameters. In a second step, models have been run in various ecological conditions and we have compared the outputs to long time series of observed data from forest inventories or monitoring networks to model predictions. Last, we use climate projections derived from RCP scenarios until 2100 at 8x8 km grid to force the models.

This work is conducted across the French metropolitan area for 3 of the main European forest species: Maritime Pine, common Beech and Douglas-fir. Our results provide an evaluation of the ecosystem services (carbon sequestration, wood supply, water regulation) taking into account climate change. Based on these results we will discuss about the way to manage/optimize these French forests in the future. To enhance cooperation between researchers and stakeholders, a panel of managers and decision makers has been involved to implement various forest management scenarios in the model.

Dynamics of vegetation in Managed forest: the case of Missirah Forest in Senegal

L. C. Faye (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, KUmasi, Ghana), S. Bienvenu (Institut des Sciences de l'Environnement, Dakar, Senegal), K. Boateng (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana)

Abstract details
Dynamics of vegetation in Managed forest: the case of Missirah Forest in Senegal

LC. Faye (1) ; S. Bienvenu (2) ; K. Boateng (3)
(1) Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Department of civil ingeneering, KUmasi, Ghana; (2) Institut des Sciences de l'Environnement, Faculty of science and technologyd, Dakar, Senegal; (3) Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Natural resources, Kumasi, Ghana

Abstract content

In the global climate change discussion, forest management has become a major concern because of the significant role of forest in climate change as both pool and source of carbon dioxide. Climate change discussion points out the important role of forest sector in climate change mitigation leading to mechanisms like Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). The concept of REDD launched in the 11th Conference of the Parties in 2005 became later REDD+ integrating sustainable forest management, forest conservation, and carbon sink enhancement. In Africa, there are only few operational REED+ programs but, the idea behind the concept is not new in African forest sector. There have been many attempts to tackle the issue of deforestation in Africa and in these attempts; agriculture, urban growth and wood extraction were identified as the main drivers. In Senegal the driving factors of deforestation derived from the literature are mostly the same. Nevertheless some factors are more specific to some areas. In the southern part of Senegal namely in Tambacounda and Kolda which are the main charcoal supply areas of the country, deforestation is correlated to wood extraction mainly charcoal production. Charcoal production contributes for more than 30% in deforestation in Senegal. To curb deforestation due to charcoal production, some forests were specifically managed for charcoal production under management plans where rules are set to make the production sustainable. Past studies related to forest management in Senegal focused mainly on the decentralization of forest management process, the effect of the institutional pluralism on the decentralization and the management of forest resources, the function of the forest management plan in the new Senegalese Forest code, the evolution of forest management in Senegal, and the effects of charcoal production on woodland regeneration. However there is a lack of relevant information on the dynamic of vegetation in managed forest comparing vegetation state baseline to the situation after a full rotation period. This information are relevant in the light of the willingness to expand the process in a large number of forests. Therefore this study aims at assessing the dynamic of vegetation in Missirah Forest. Specifically it consists of characterizing vegetation type state in 2013, determining their dynamic through the mapping of the land cover land use types from1990 to 2014, and determining vegetation dynamics in terms of floristic composition and dendrometric parameters between 2002 and 2013

Missirah Forest is one the first 3 managed forests for charcoal production in 2004. A mapping of the land use-land cover types was combined with a tree inventory to characterize the current status of the vegetation in 2013 and its dynamics between 2002 and 2013 using 94 circular plots in table lands and 57circular plots in gallery forest. The mapping of the LULC identifies 6 vegetation types namely tree savannah, shrub savannah, degraded shrub savannah, gallery forest, farmland, and settlement areas.  It reveals a decrease of area covered by vegetation at the expense of cropland and the appearance of a new vegetation type resulting from the degradation of the other vegetation type. The result of the tree inventory reveals that the vegetation types and the farmland shelter a total of 54 species belonging to 18 families and 42 genera. Inventory data were analyzed according to land use land cover types. Mean diameter at breast height (dbh), tree density, stem density, mean Lorel height and mean basal area in the different land-use land cover were greater in gallery forest. These dendrometric parameters were also found to be significantly different among vegetation types (p<0.05) in 2013. The analysis of variance(ANOVA) conducted on the negative binomial model shows that between 2002 and 2013 from a vegetation type to another the difference in terms of diversity is highly significant (p<0.05) while from a year to another it is not significant (p>0.05). The K-mean method applied to the IVI of species identifies three classes defining species with increased, decreased, and relative stability IVI. Dendrometric parameters show greater values in 2002 except for stem density in tree savannah. Significant difference was observed for tree density, basal area, and mean Lorey height between 2002 and 2013.

Economic Contribution of Communal Land Restoration to Rural Livelihood; a Case Study in Ethiopia

Y. T. Weldesemaet (Watersheds Organisational and Livelihood Affairs Support, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

Abstract details
Economic Contribution of Communal Land Restoration to Rural Livelihood; a Case Study in Ethiopia

YT. Weldesemaet (1)
(1) Watersheds Organisational and Livelihood Affairs Support, Research and Development, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract content

Restoration of natural capital in areas with conservation interest has significant potential in the conservation of biodiversity and thereby increasing the economics of the area. Despite such qualitative assertions, quantitative accounting of restoration areas is hardly ever assessed in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study attempted to quantify the economic net benefits of the restoration of degraded community conservation area by comparing the cost of restoration inputs; with the income generated from the restoration outputs. The restored conservation area cost and benefit are projected temporally to 2025 the time when the restoration outputs yield maximum and spatially to the large-scale communal land holdings in the study region. The study findings indicated that not all economically valued restoration outputs contribute to conservation area community incomes. The present net benefit from the study area generated an income of USD 158, which is almost half the national per capita income during the study. After the restoration outputs yielded maximum, net benefit expected from this study area increased incomes of beneficiaries six times more. Whereas restoring all the communal land in the study area would increase incomes to USD 4,526, which is way over what the government aims to achieve with its acclaimed 2025 Growth and Transformation Plan. However, to realize this it will require thorough research for the development of markets for different bio-geographic zones and evolving appropriate working plan prescriptions. Moreover, the possibilities of linking these services to international protocols in conservation of natural resources, global warming, and world trade have to be explored.

Traditional plant-phenological observations at the Hungarian Meteorological Service

E. Vincze (Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract details
Traditional plant-phenological observations at the Hungarian Meteorological Service

E. Vincze (1)
(1) Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary

Abstract content

The relationship of the vegetation and climate is obvious from the first observations of the nature. Climate change has a strong impact on the flora of each country, which can be followed by the study of phenology. The task of plant-phenology is to observe and analyse the periodically recurring biological processes such as budburst, flowering, fruit ripening, and leaf fall. This is the scientific discipline, which is able to link vegetation dynamics with climate variables.

Phenological observations in Hungary started in 1871. The observation system of the Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) collapsed and revived time by time, until it was closed because of financial problems in 2000. Due to the reorganization of the institute, unfortunately, a part of the datasets were destroyed. Between 2009 and 2014 within the framework of a scientific research fund we had an opportunity – beside the main tasks of the project – to study the archive records.

In the last two years we collected detailed statistics about the digitalized and the only-paper datasets and tried to methodize the whole available digitalized and paper-based database. The paper will present the archive phenological data collection of the Hungarian Meteorological Service between 1871 and 2000.

Impacts of land cover changes on ecosystem service delivery using remote sensing, GIS and social innovation tools at Duiwenhoks catchment

M. Tshindane (South African National Biodiversity Institute, Western Cape, South Africa)

Abstract details
Impacts of land cover changes on ecosystem service delivery using remote sensing, GIS and social innovation tools at Duiwenhoks catchment

M. Tshindane (1)
(1) South African National Biodiversity Institute, Climate Change Adaptation Division, Western Cape, South Africa

Abstract content

Historic spatial land cover databases consisting of maps and land use patterns are important tools for monitoring impacts of land cover change. Such a database was constructed for Duiwenhoks catchment in the Western Cape, South Africa from 1940 to 2010 in order to  assess land cover dynamics at a long scale (70 years). This, coupled with attribute climatic data and streamflow dynamics will be useful in modelling future hydrologic patterns, ecosystem services sustenance and resilience to natural and anthropogenic impacts such as floods and increased vegetation clearing for agricultural purposes respectively in the 21st half century (2050) using ACRU. To achieve this, black and white Aerial Photographs (AP’s) were used to build the land cover maps roughly in a decadal series (1940, 1950, 1960, 1970, 1990 and 2010) with the exception of 1980 due to bad raw datasets which was technically deemed impractical to be used for this study. Research tools for the project were advanced software in GIS (ArcGIS 10.1) and Remote Sensing (ERDAS Intergraph 2014 and ENVI 4.4) to perform desktop applications like geo-referencing, image cropping, mosaicking, projection and post classification. The project used remote sensing tools for textural analysis, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), supervised and unsupervised classification to build the spatial land cover maps. An error matrix using 80 sampling points per land cover class and ground truthing was used to quantify the degree of correctness resulting in a 60% overall classification and 58% Kappa index. Furthermore, interviews with the farmers, long-standing residents, private land owners, and the Duiwenhoks Water User Association and conservation planners were used to assess trends and the effectiveness of environmental policy and ecosystem based adaptation mechanisms that are rolled out by different organisations in the study area. Findings of the study show a loss of natural vegetation from the 1940’s especially in riparian zones of the middle catchment. An observed increase in dam construction also indicate the increase in demand for irrigation water for both crops and livestock production. With good national and international policies in place to promote environmental sustainability in South African Water Catchment Management Areas, there is great potential for rehabilitation and conservation of ecosystems and the physical environment. However, the limitation of application of policy at a local fine scale level is one of the reasons which appear to lead to failure of preventing unsustainable land cover change such as in riparian zones. Firstly, catchments differ in their heterogeneous statuses signalling a need to structure locally developed environmental adaptation tools. Other studies indicate that the hierarchical list of planning documents and environmental issues become diluted in terms of their relevance to local development due to a weak alignment of policies and legislation (Sitas et al. 2013). The on-going gabion construction project (Duiwenhoks Goukou Wetland Rehabilitation project) is one of the success adaptation mechanisms being rolled out in the Duiwenhoks catchment because prior to its conclusion, several of the objectives like maintaining streamflow and halting river bank erosion appear to have been achieved. Additional to the gabion construction adaptation response, the alien vegetation clearing exercise has also proved to be yielding substantial results in the middle catchment. However, at the upper catchment below the Langeberg Mountains, the alien clearing programme should have immediately followed up the clearing exercise by planting endemic plants that will protect the soil from further erosion due to its looseness and exposure to runoff. Therefore, alien clearing should take note of the seasons in which to act on because performing the exercise in mid-winter makes the exposed soil erosion debris which waits to be washed into the main river and other feeding streams.

Ecosystem services as determinants of social-ecological system transformations: Dojran Lake, Macedonia

L. Ilieva (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice / Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Venice, Italy), D. Bojovic, (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice / Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Venice, Italy), C. Giupponi (Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy)

Abstract details
Ecosystem services as determinants of social-ecological system transformations: Dojran Lake, Macedonia

L. Ilieva (1) ; D. Bojovic, (1) ; C. Giupponi (2)
(1) Ca’ Foscari University of Venice / Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change, Venice, Italy; (2) Ca' Foscari University of Venice, Venice Centre for Climate Studies, Venice, Italy

Abstract content

Global environmental change often triggers abrupt and irreversible ecosystem shifts resulting in transformations of social-ecological systems. The capacity to adapt to such variable and uncertain conditions is a unique learning opportunity to better understand factors underpinning system’s resilience to shocks. This study examines a social-ecological system through the lens of ecosystem services and their role as determinants of a transformation. The project Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) at Dojran lake in Macedonia applied the ecosystem services framework to examine the impacts of sudden natural disasters affecting Dojran Lake in Macedonia. Once a significant site in the Balkan peninsula, known for its water health benefits, fisheries, and abundant hydrological resources for agriculture and surrounding settlements, the lake has experienced two extreme shocks resulting in flood (1955 - 1956) and drought (1989). The shocks were detrimental for the small, mesotrophic -eutrophic lake of 42.5 km2 and with the maximum depth of 10 m. The research is focused on the latter, anthropologically driven, event, which lead to a 60 cm drop in water level of the lake, a recession of lake’s margins up to 100 m from the main settlement, the disappearance of much of the western littoral zone, and significant biodiversity loss. All these resulted in long-term impacts on the social-ecological system and overall economic downturn associated with collapse of the local fisheries industry and decreased tourism.

In the attempt to better understand how did the abrupt transformation affect ecosystem services and human wellbeing, we collected and analysed information through the following activities:

(1) identification  of main stakeholders at Dojran lake and analysis of their relevant role in the process of transformation;

(2) analysis of social, ecological, and economic factors defining the current state of the system;

(3) identification and prioritization of ecosystem services and their current conditions; 

(4) exploration of the stakeholders’ visions about desired future social-ecological pathways and consultation of the development strategies of the local government.

The collected information contributed to the development of a holistic picture of the actors and components necessary to understand the resilience of the system, emphasizing the dynamic character of the internal transformation processes.

The research was further guided by the principal question of how the listed information can provide insights for the management and conservation of the altered social-ecological system. Results show that the state of ecosystem services provision has dramatically decreased; nevertheless they continue to be determinant for local communities’ wellbeing and an indicator for their adaptive capacity. We identified recreational services, fisheries and agricultural production as the key ecosystem services.  Their intensified exploitation, however, is guided by past livelihood patterns, which can hardly be supported by the current state of the ecosystem and which can be exposed to further risks in the perspective of climatic changes. Although the visions about the prospects of development in the area were rather heterogeneous, there is a common shared awareness of the need to preserve and valorise key ecosystem services.

The analysis of past sudden social-ecological transitions through an ecosystem services approach provides a comprehensive framework for the research of adaptive and coping capacities inherent in the system and the identification of its main vulnerabilities. These results represent a step forward towards identifying enabling factors to incorporate ecosystem services in the development process of the area, while strengthening the capacities for adaptive management of social and ecological systems in view of possible future shocks. 

Promoting Climate Smart Agriculture along the Coastal Belt of Bangladesh Using ICT

M. A. Rahaman (ADAMS, Khulna, France), M. A. Aslam,s. (ADAMS, Khulna, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Promoting Climate Smart Agriculture along the Coastal Belt of Bangladesh Using ICT

MA. Rahaman (1) ; MA. Aslam,s. (2)
(1) ADAMS, Climate Change, Khulna, France; (2) ADAMS, Executive board, Khulna, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Bangladesh is a small country and the highest densely populated country in the world which is vulnerable to different types of environmental disasters. The major disasters and environmental vulnerabilities are floods, water stagnancy, droughts, cyclone, tidal surge, river erosion, salinity, extreme temperature and low light intensity, pests and diseases etc. The vulnerabilities due to climate change are likely to aggravate more in the future. These catastrophic events significantly hinder the agriculture production systems, economic and social development of the country firstly, through damaging the crops, livestock, fisheries and agro-forestry, natural resources, establishments and infrastructures and secondly, pulling back the on-going developments, business and trade at local, regional and even global levels. Costal areas are mostly inhabited by the poor and disadvantaged groups. Usually coastal belt is flooded from May/June to November/December. Salinity also restricts agriculture in the coastal areas. In the Coastal Zone, crops are lost due to water stagnancy/standing flood water or tidal surge during July/August-November/December (5-6 months) in wet seasons. On the other hand, during winter salinity is major threat to agriculture in this area. During summer season, due to lack of irrigation availability, farmers can not produce crops in their lands.  The aim of the action research is to ensure food security of ultra poor climate vulnerable farmers promoting climate-smart agricultural system using ICT in costal belt of Bangladesh. The study was conducted in flood and saline prone Bagerhat District of South-West Coastal region of Bangladesh adopting establishment of Climate-smart Agricultural Information Centre; generating local agro-meteorological, soil and hydrological information; developing and regular updating customized software on generated information; dessiminating seasonal agro-meteorolical, soil and hydrological informatinon relating to crop suitability using cellular phone, community radio message and mobile internet; educating farmers on ICT and climate resilient agricultural system, soil health, flood & saline tolerant varieties. Based on the empirical findings, the study reveals that ICTs are powerful tools in climate-smart agricultural development. Radio, cellular phone and mobile internet are strong platform in interaction between farmers and climate change experts. It made a tremendous improvement in climate-smart agricultural promotin in the study area.

Trends and Spatial Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Patterns on Rice Yields in Nigeria

C. Akinbile (Federal University of Technology, Akure(FUTA), Akure, Ondo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), O. Ogunmola (Federal University of Technology, Akure(FUTA), Akure, Ondo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), S. Akande (Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Trends and Spatial Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall Patterns on Rice Yields in Nigeria

C. Akinbile (1) ; O. Ogunmola (1) ; S. Akande (2)
(1) Federal University of Technology, Akure(FUTA), Agricultural & Environmental Engineering, Akure, Ondo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) Federal University of Technology, Centre for space research and applications, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Due to the increasing decline in food especially rice production, a research to access the impact of climate variability on food crop in Nigeria was conducted. Trends and spatial analysis of the effect of temperature and rainfall on rice yield was carried out using 40 years climate and rice yield data. Past trends analysis was conducted with forty years (1971-2010) climate data obtained from the International Institute of tropical agriculture (IITA) Ibadan, Nigeria while rice yield data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) respectively. Future trends for the next forty years (2011-2050) projections on the climate variability and trends on rice yields were also forecasted. Six cities, one in each of the six agro-ecological zones of Nigeria were selected for the studies which were Calabar in Mangrove forest, Enugu in wooded Savannah, Ikeja in tropical rain forest, Ilorin in Guinea Savannah, Kaduna in Sudan Sahel and Maiduguri in Sahel savannah. . Geographic Information Systems (GIS) software was employed to map out spatial analysis of temperature and rainfall over the entire country using the six cities in each of the six zones as nodal sampling points. Results and predictions were analyzed using Statistical packages such as Mann-Kendall and Sens’ tests, multiple linear regression, cross-correlation analysis, Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS), Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), Duncan’s multiple range test (DMRT) and Arc surfer software, all at 95% level of significance. Rainfall showed increasing trends in Enugu, Ilorin, Calabar, Ikeja, and Maiduguri but decreasing trends were observed in Kaduna while temperature showed increasing trends in all the cities considered in the last four decades. The future climate projections showed increasing rainfall trends in Enugu, Calabar, Ikeja, and Maiduguri while decreasing trends were observed in Kaduna and Ilorin while temperature showed increasing trends in all the cities for the next four decades. For annual rainfall, no significant trend was observed in Calabar, Ilorin and Enugu but a statistically significant negative trend was observed in Kaduna. Similarly, statistically significant positive trends of rice yield, rainfall, and temperature were observed in Ikeja and Maiduguri in the last four decades. Rainfall decreased at the rate of 4.706mmyr-1 (P) while rice yield increased at the rate of 0.052t/ha/yr (P) in Kaduna. In Maiduguri, temperature increased at the rate of 0.063°C/yr (P) while rice yield increased at the rate of 0.063t/ha/yr (P. Mann-Kendall tests showed that rice yield and temperature had generally statistically significant positive trends in Calabar, Ilorin, Kaduna, and Enugu. Pearson correlation also showed that the relationship between rainfall and yield is not significant in Calabar, Enugu, Ilorin, and Maiduguri while temperature against yield is significant at 0.01 in Calabar, Enugu, Ikeja, and 0.05 level of significance at Ilorin. The multiple linear regression models also showed that rainfall was insignificant in Calabar, Ikeja, Ilorin, and Kaduna while maximum temperature was insignificant only in Maiduguri. Adaptation strategies such as genetically modifying rice varieties to tolerate projected changes in rainfall and temperature trends as well as effective water use strategies (supplemental irrigation) in areas of deficit rainfall are recommended to ensure food security and sustianble livelihoods in Nigeria.

Assessment of the olive tree adaptation to water stress and tool to increase crop performance in the context of climatic changes

D. Boujnah (Institution de la Recherche et de l'Enseignement Supérieur Agricole, Sousse, Tunisia)

Abstract details
Assessment of the olive tree adaptation to water stress and tool to increase crop performance in the context of climatic changes

D. Boujnah (1)
(1) Institution de la Recherche et de l'Enseignement Supérieur Agricole, Institut de l'Olivier, Sousse, Tunisia

Abstract content

Global climate change will introduce substantial changes to the agricultural ecosystems and consequentely will affect the agricultural productivity. Water stress is the most important factor limiting plant growth and production. Thus, monitoring of plant water status in field grown is considered of great interest, as it would allow the diagnoses of the onset and severity of water stress so as to optimise the cultural practices according to the actual plant needs. Changes in plant water status could be described by using a sensitive physiological indicator, which integrates both soil and climatic conditions. The aim of our study is to evaluate a quantitative direct relationship of the olive tree water status and the environmental conditions that might be used to evaluate the response of the tree to some unconventional cultural practices: use of hydro absorbent, increasing plantation density and supplement water of traditional olive tree grove. For online control two techniques was used: the sap flow measurement system and the leaf patch clamp pressure probe (LPCP) which give information about the relative changes in turgor pressure (Pc) of the monitored plant.

The results of the sap flow measurement show the direct influence of changes in environmental factors, water state and the physiological parameter of the tree on the sap flow level among the olive tree. For the LPCP the instantaneous data, provided by the probe, have allowed us to have accurate information on the hydraulic behavior of the olive trees and the efficiency of hydro absorbent injected in the soil to enhance the effect of the available water. Indeed, we found that the effect of the water provided by the hydro-absorbent doesn’t act directly on the olive trees as is the case of direct water supply; its effect is delayed for a few days. This product can be used effectively to support the tree during periods of intense biological activity. Also, the results confirmed some of the findings observed on olive tree particularly its high adaptability to environmental conditions, as after a period of stress observed in plants grown under rained conditions where an  improved  of turgor potential was recorded. 

Barriers to linking mitigation and adaptation in smallholder farming systems: lessons from maize cultivation among Mayas in southern Belize

R. Kongsager (UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark)

Abstract details
Barriers to linking mitigation and adaptation in smallholder farming systems: lessons from maize cultivation among Mayas in southern Belize

R. Kongsager (1)
(1) UNEP DTU Partnership, Copenhagen, Denmark

Abstract content

Linking of adaptation and mitigation in agriculture is proposed as a necessity, as the sector will need adaptation to resist future climatic changes, and because high emissions from the sector contribute significantly to climate change. This study investigate the barriers for making adjustments in the maize production among Maya communities in Southern Belize. It is an exploratory case study based on qualitative interviews and field observations, where four low external input adjustments that potentially will result in both adaptation and mitigation benefits were suggested. The findings show that adjustments to enhance the adaptation-mitigation link in small-scale maize production in Maya villages in Southern Belize are possible in principle, however several of the barriers can make the overall climate-smart objective difficult to implement in practice. The barriers are of proximate and indirect nature, exist at different spatial scales and involve various governance levels. Land tenure, market access, and changes in the traditional culture are shown to be some of the barriers, but it is also demonstrated that barriers are not homogenous across the villages in the region. An overall district level strategy for enhancing the adaptation and mitigation link is possible, but the toolbox should contain a wide variety of approaches. Which could happen, for instance, through alterations of the land tenure and land taxation system at the national level, enhancement of the agricultural extension system to ease the access to knowledge and input at district level, and by supporting a less complex governance structure at village level.

Revamping Agriculture Sector through Sustainable method: Using Solar Water Pumps in Punjab state (Study of selected Districts)

R. Kaur (Panjab University, Mohali, Punjab, India)

Abstract details
Revamping Agriculture Sector through Sustainable method: Using Solar Water Pumps in Punjab state (Study of selected Districts)

R. Kaur (1)
(1) Panjab University, Public Administration Department, Mohali, Punjab, India

Abstract content

Abstract- Sustainable agriculture is the activity oriented concept to produce food in a suitable quality and quantity and guarantee food security for the world. Land use, crop choice, irrigation, and fertilization should be done in such a way that it should not lead to land degradation and desertification. India’s irrigated agriculture sector plays a significant role in India’s economic development as 28% of India’s GDP and 67% of employment is based on agriculture. The reliable irrigation is a critical demand as farmers in India are facing issues like erratic grid supply, increasing unreliability on monsoon rains and high cost of diesel pumps. The availability of less than 1000 cubic metre per capita is considered as scarcity as per International Standards and remedial measures. Government of India at union level and State Governments had formulated certain policies and programmes to overcome this issue and launched Solar Water Pumps (SWP) as a solution to irrigate fields adequately as it is environmental friendly and cost effective. Presently, Punjab state food grain production has failed by 16.65 million tonnes to meet its target as Punjab face problem of less energy generation for farms. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy in coordination with other governmental agencies and state nodal agencies like Punjab Energy Development Agency (PEDA) have implemented SWP schemes for improving irrigation system to increase production of food grain.

An attempt will be made through this to analyse need and scope of the implementation of SWP scheme in state of Punjab for sustainable irrigation to increase crop production. The main objective of the study is to evaluate the extent of scheme in creating awareness among population involved in agriculture while considering the perception of beneficiaries towards their installation process to meet their requirement of energy. Paper will also discuss involvement of Government machinery involved in enforcement of scheme and will suggest measures to improve irrigation through SWPs. Primary and secondary sources will be used in the proposed research paper. The primary data will be taken from two districts, Gurdaspur (max, SWPs installed) and Fatehgarh Sahib (min SWPs installed). 100 farmers will be selected as sample size for survey (50 from each district). Secondary data will be collected from annual reports of PEDA, e- Journals and other Government documents. Paper is beneficial for Government agencies and Research Scholars.

Climate-smart agriculture and cocoa: engaging with farmers and their supply chains in Ghana

S. Muilerman (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Accra, Ghana), C. Bunn (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia), H. Kirscht, (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Yaoundé, Cameroon), L. Jassogne (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Kampala, Uganda), M. Lundy, (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia), N. A. Anyidodo, (University of Ghana, Legon, Ghana), P. Van Asten (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Kampala, Uganda), G. Schroth, (Rainforest Alliance, A, Brazil), R. Asare, (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Accra, Ghana), P. Läderach (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Hanoi, Vietnam)

Abstract details
Climate-smart agriculture and cocoa: engaging with farmers and their supply chains in Ghana

S. Muilerman (1) ; C. Bunn (2) ; H. Kirscht, (3) ; L. Jassogne (4) ; M. Lundy, (2) ; NA. Anyidodo, (5) ; P. Van Asten (4) ; G. Schroth, (6) ; R. Asare, (1) ; P. Läderach (7)
(1) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, West Africa, Accra, Ghana; (2) International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali, Colombia; (3) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Yaoundé, Cameroon; (4) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Systems agronomy, Kampala, Uganda; (5) University of Ghana, Institute of statistical, social and economic researc, Legon, Ghana; (6) Rainforest Alliance, A, Brazil; (7) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Ciat - asia, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abstract content

Global demand for cocoa has been increasing 2-3% annually, especially due to growing demand in Asia. The cocoa industry is challenged to produce the additional million tons required over the next years. The historic growth model for cocoa, especially in the Upper Guinea Rainforest areas, was largely based on successive waves of migrant cocoa farmers moving into virgin forests. With less than 15% of the original forest cover remaining in West Africa, this model has collapsed. Recent studies have revealed that climate change further threatens the current production zones, negatively impacting production if nothing changes. Sustainable, profitable and climate-smart intensification is required, not only to sustain the global industry, but also the livelihoods of its smallholder producers. Previous recommendations to improve productivity, including full-sun or low shade intensified cocoa, today apply to an ever-decreasing group of cocoa producers who have the necessary resources for this type of farming; moreover, it may increase the vulnerability of cocoa farmers to climate change. Availability and access to the right agro-inputs is necessary but insufficient to prepare farmers for climate change. Success raising productivity has been achieved especially in Ghana’s last cocoa frontier, the Western Region, which has been the prime focus of vast government subsidy and distribution schemes. However, demonstrated yield growth figures could not sustainably be scaled to a national level. This is also clearly demonstrated by the persistence of a 50 to 75 percent yield gap for cocoa under on-farm compared to on-station conditions. Climate-smart cocoa initiatives will not only need to look at the farming systems (incl. crop diversification to buffer farmers against market, policy and environmental risks), but will also need to take on an integrated value chain approach. Proposed solutions will need to be adopted at scale, based on real-world incentives and resonating with a diverse landscape of stakeholders. Awareness needs to be raised by the identification of exposure levels and ranking of potential impacts that may vary significantly across the country and region. Relevant climate smart practices will need to be disseminated using appropriate vehicles to reach scale, e.g. by linking with existing training programs and impact investors to reach producers and their organizations. With the age of the average cocoa farmer being about 50 years, adapting for the future will also require the industry to make smallholder cocoa farming more attractive and accessible for younger farmers with strong climate smart business models. To confront all these challenges we present an inclusive approach that unites stakeholders throughout the value chain and marries existing value chain interventions focused on changing farmer practices and the provision of innovative financial vehicles with climate science. Our approach tests new methods for identifying and scaling site-specific and appropriate CSA practices, assessed against the risks of exposure on a climate change gradient, which are then mainstreamed into voluntary certification schemes and linked to impact investment in producer organizations.

Broadening the genetic base and knowledge of cultivated crops for climate adaptation: A citizen science approach

A. Gupta (Bioversity International, New Delhi, India), S. Mittra, (Bioversity International, New Delhi, India), E. J. Van (Bioversity International, Turrialba , Costa Rica), P. N. Mathur, (Bioversity International, New Delhi, India)

Abstract details
Broadening the genetic base and knowledge of cultivated crops for climate adaptation: A citizen science approach

A. Gupta (1) ; S. Mittra, (1) ; EJ. Van (2) ; PN. Mathur, (1)
(1) Bioversity International, New Delhi, India; (2) Bioversity International, Turrialba , Costa Rica

Abstract content

Climate change has already started to roll and showing its effects on different aspects of today’s world. Climate change affects crop production directly through the intensity and frequency of different types of stress, such as drought, heat stress, and flooding. One important adaptation measure is that farmers change to new varieties and crops. To make these changes, farmers first need information about new options and how they perform on their farms. This requires a massive effort in creating new information about crops and varieties in different contexts that is difficult to achieve with current approaches. Our work uses a novel citizen science approach to accelerate the creation of new information. We started in 2012 in the Indo Gangetic Plains of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in India with rice and wheat. Since then, the approach has also been applied in Eastern Africa and Central America. This presentation focuses on India, where the application of the citizen science approach has advanced most.

The citizen science approach uses the farmers’ views and preference in a participatory way using crowdsourcing to look for the best set of genotypes that can perform well under the changed climatic conditions of India. We first screened more than 300 varieties released from the National Agricultural Research System (NARS), selecting 12-20 varieties in each site through Participatory Varietal Selection (PVS) trials, comparing with current varieties. From this set, we distributed different combinations of 3 varieties to each of the farmers to be grown alongside their own regular crop. The variety names are not marked on the packages to avoid any bias based on previous knowledge or comparisons with neighbours during the crop cycle. We ask farmers 8-9 questions about their preferences. Farmers rank these 3 varieties evaluating various characters such as germination, yield, and resistance to pests and diseases. At the end of the season these data is compiled to see the overall performance of these newly introduced varieties as per the farmers´ verdict of different characters. We also did a set of carefully managed on-farm trials with quantitative evaluation of the full varietal set (15-20 varieties) and varieties currently grown in the area for agronomic performance. One or two of these trials are done per village and managed by leader-farmers who invite their neighbours to evaluate these varieties. We also record local weather conditions by using low-cost meteorological sensors. Every season, we repeat the process with a new set of varieties as we replace the varieties that received low marks from the farmers by a fresh set of varieties.

In wheat, the farmers of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh were growing only two varieties, UP 262 and PBW 343. Our evaluation shows that in three districts in Bihar the 12-20 varieties introduce by the project yielded more than the current varieties. Similar results were obtained for rice. Of the introduced varieties, 7 outyielded the 5 most popular hybrid varieties that the farmers are currently growing. This shows that genetic broadening and an increase in production can be combined and that the introduction of diversity can quickly close the climate adaptation lag.

Varietal evaluation data produced by the participatory variety evaluation done through on-farm plots with all varieties provided very similar results to the data provided by the crowdsourcing trials with 3 varieties per farmer. This was true for both wheat and rice. This indicates that crowdsourcing gives reliable results, while exposing the materials to a broader group of farmers with lower costs. We are analysing the feasibility of combining the variety evaluation data with the meteorological data to generalize variety recommendations to a wider area.

The impact that was noticed from the first season is farmers have started to save the seeds of the varieties that they like and find superior to the ones that they were already growing. The farmers are also trained in producing the seeds of these selected varieties and a number of groups are now producing and selling seed. Seed sales by farmer groups will help to make it financially sustainable to continue the introduction, testing and marketing of new varieties and adapt to new climatic conditions. 

Floating Vegetables Gardening: Climate Smart Agriculture Technology for Food Security in Tidal Flooded Area of Southern Bangladesh

M. A. Rahman (Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Barisal, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Floating Vegetables Gardening: Climate Smart Agriculture Technology for Food Security in Tidal Flooded Area of Southern Bangladesh

MA. Rahman (1)
(1) Bangladesh Agricultural Research Institute (BARI), Division of Agronomy, Barisal, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Bangladesh is ranked as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, where agriculture is the most climate sensitive sector. The consequences of climate change concerned here are: floods, intrusion of soil and water salinity, sea level rise and tropical cyclones, which are major constraints for sustainable agricultural production in Bangladesh. The coastal area covers about 23 percent of the country and lies on the ‘front line’ of climate change and sea level rise. Most of Bangladesh is less than ten metres above sea level, with almost ten per cent of the country below one metre, making it extremely vulnerable to increasing high tides. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted that about 17% of the country’s landmass could be inundated with a one metre rise in sea levels in Bangladesh (IPCC’S AR5, 2014). Therefore, climate change adaptation measures must be taken for improving the food security of the people. The coastal area adjacent to sea-bank in southern region of Bangladesh remain under submerge condition for a long period (generally from June to December) during monsoon season or even all the year round due to tidal flooding and erratic rainfall. As a result, there is no scope of crop cultivation on this land naturally that hampers the crop production as well as food security severely particularly for the vulnerable poor people. To cope with the situation, the farmers of tidal flooded area have been practicing a climate smart technology of soilless vegetables gardening since two centuries, which is locally known as “Vasoman or dhap chash,” meaning “Floating Agriculture” (similar to hydroponics). In considering its innovativeness, a study was conducted using questionnaire tool among the randomly selected farmers (n=150) in three southern districts (Gopalganj, Pirojpur and Barisal) of Bangladesh during 2012-14 to assess the agro-economic performance of floating vegetables gardening and its potential for adaptation to climate change in the country. The floating bed is built up with various types of local materials and the single most important component is water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), but topapana (Pista stratiotes), dulali lata (Potamogeton alpinus), son ghash (Imperata cylindrica), noll ghash (Hamerthria protensa), aquatic algae (Nitella sp.) wood ash, and dissected coconut fibres are also used for floating bed preparation. A large number of people are involved with this business for supplying the local materials to the farmers. Size of the floating bed varies over district ranges from 15-45 meter long, 1.2-1.5 meter breadth, and 1.0-1.2 meter height. The floating beds lift up with rising of tidal flood water level without any damage. Farmers of Gopalganj district usually grow different vegetable crops (okra, Indian spinach, bottle gourd, bitter gourd, tomato, brinjal, snake gourd, cucumber, ridge gourd, yard long bean, water melon, musk melon, chilli, etc.) on floating bed during monsoon season without using any fertilizers and pesticides. However, seedlings of above stated vegetable crops are produced on the floating bed in Pirojpur and Barisal districts. Seedlings of vegetables are grown for 3 to 5 times/bed/monsoon season (June-October), where 1000-1200 seedlings/bed are grown in a time. Before growing of vegetables and/or seedlings on floating bed, a series of backward tasks (media ball preparation, seed sprouting and set-up, primary nursing etc.) are done mostly by women at homestead nursery. After vegetables cultivation, the decomposed floating beds can be used as compost for succeeding crop production that saves the use of chemical fertilizers as well as environment. The seedlings are sold at local market of nearby districts for income generation (average net return USD 20/bed). Floating gardening provides fresh vegetables for household consumption of the local people and the surplus amount of the product are sold at the local market to earn some cash particularly for the women. Thus, the technology has the potential to provide a means of income and food security for the millions of small households who have no access to plan land but live close to large bodies of water in southern region. The local innovative technology (floating gardening) may be recognized as agricultural heritage as well as suitable adaptation option in considering its environmental and social aspects in Bangladesh. Therefore, the floating vegetables gardening have been considered as a climate smart agriculture technology for food security in southern region of Bangladesh.

Managing the biological function of N2O reduction for mitigating soil N2O emission

C. Henault (INRA, Orléans, France), J.-P.A. Cohan (ARVALIS, La Chapelle Saint Sauveur, France), G. C. Le (CETIOM, Thiverval Grignon, France), M. Bardy (INRA, Orleans, France), X. Galiegue (Université Orléans, Orléans, France), R. Philippon, (AgroPithiviers, Pithiviers, France), C. Revellin, (INRA, Dijon, France)

Abstract details
Managing the biological function of N2O reduction for mitigating soil N2O emission

C. Henault (1) ; JPA. Cohan (2) ; GC. Le (3) ; M. Bardy (4) ; X. Galiegue (5) ; R. Philippon, (6) ; C. Revellin, (7)
(1) INRA, UR SOLS 0272, Orléans, France; (2) ARVALIS, Ferme expérimentale de la jaillère, La Chapelle Saint Sauveur, France; (3) CETIOM, Thiverval Grignon, France; (4) INRA, Us infosol, Orleans, France; (5) Université Orléans, Laboratoire d'economie d'orléans, Orléans, France; (6) AgroPithiviers, Pithiviers, France; (7) INRA, Agroecologie, Dijon, France

Abstract content

Human activities are currently considered to emit 5.3 Tg N-N2O per year, mainly from agriculture that accounts for around two-thirds of these emissions (UNEP, 2013). The atmospheric gas N2O is involved both in the greenhouse effect with a contribution on a molar basis of around 300 in relation to CO2 (Rodhe, 1990) and in ozone depletion (Ravishankara et al., 2009). The development of new approaches to increase agricultural efficiency and potential mitigation pathways are required in particular in the context of the continuing population growth. 

In soils, N2O is mainly produced through the microbial processes of denitrification and of nitrification. The last step of the denitrification process (N2O → N2) is currently the only known pathway for the terrestrial removal of N2O. N2O reduction is catalysed by the N2O reductase enzyme encoded by the nosZ gene (Viebrock and Zumft, 1988). The efficiency of soils to reduce N2O to N2 is highly variable. Soils with low N2O reduction potential have also been observed to emit high levels of N2O on a field scale (Hénault et al. 2005). We developed strategies to mitigate N2O emissions from agricultural soils based on the stimulation of the microbial process of reduction of N2O to N2. We therefore developed two different approaches for promoting the biological reduction of N2O in soils.

The first one, is based on the results previously obtained by Sameshima-Saito et al., 2006 who had observed that Soybean roots nodulated with Bradyrhizobium japonicum USDA110, carrying the nosZ gene, were able to remove low concentrations of N2O. We studied the consumption of N2O by strains of Bradyrhizobium japonicum (USDA110 and MSDJ G49) on inoculated soybean plants cultivated in soil pots during a greenhouse experiment. During this experiment, we switched from a system acting as an N2O source (soil + soybean inoculated with a nosZ gene depleted strain) to a system acting as an N2O sink (soil + soybean inoculated with strains carrying the nosZ gene). Calculations using the obtained quantitative results clearly suggest an environmental benefit of nosZ+-nodulated leguminous on the field scale, with an assessed abatement of field emission of 60 % during the investigated period, (Hénault and Revellin, 2011).

The principle of the second approach is to understand the physico-chemical determinism of the N2O reduction in soils and then to manage these conditions to promote N2O reduction. Around 100 soil samples of the RMQS, the French Soil Quality Monitoring Network, were sampled and analysed for determining their physico-chemical conditions associated to their capacity to reduce N2O into N2. Soil pH was observed as an essential determinant of the capacity of soil to reduce N2O, this capacity increasing with soil pH. A field experiment was then set up on an acidic soil, receiving calcareous amendment. We observed a pH increase followed by an increase of the soil capacity to reduce N2O and at the same time a reduction of soil N2O emissions at the field scale, with an observed abatement of field emission up to 50 % during the investigated period.

The management of the biological reduction of N2O into N2 appears possible both by biological (inoculation of leguminous crops by strains having a functional nosZ gene) or physico-chemical (pH management) actions. A stimulation of the N2O reduction function in soil allows mitigating soil N2O emissions. These both approaches are very interesting because they don’t create any transfer of nitrogen pollution in environment and because they do not compromise agricultural production of proteins. Their economic aspects are currently investigated.

These studies are supported by the ADEME (SOLGES project), the Conseil Regional Centre Val de Loire (PUIGES project) and the Labex Voltaire (ANR-10-LaBX100-01).

Exploring solutions in response to Biosinvasions threatening agroecosystems under climate change scenarios: pest/predator adaptation and biodiversity management of acarofauna as an example

M. Navajas (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France), M.-S. Tixier (Montpellier SupAgro, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France)

Abstract details
Exploring solutions in response to Biosinvasions threatening agroecosystems under climate change scenarios: pest/predator adaptation and biodiversity management of acarofauna as an example

M. Navajas (1) ; MS. Tixier (2)
(1) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Umr cbgp (inra / ird / cirad / montpellier supagro - centre de biologie gestion des populations, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France; (2) Montpellier SupAgro, Umr cbgp (inra / ird / cirad / montpellier supagro) - centre de biologie gestion des populations, Montferrier-sur-Lez, France

Abstract content

Under climate change scenarios, increasing ecological and climatic stresses create new conditions posing a major threat to global agriculture. Particular relevant are invasive alien species introduced into agroecosystems where they often grow into destructive pests. The examples of bioinvasions threatening agricultural systems are unfortunately frequent and their number is expected to increase. Processes of range expansion and adaptation of pests but also natural enemies are fundamental for understanding the impact these organisms have or will have on populations, communities and ecosystems under new climatic conditions. These issues are here addressed taken as an example the acarofaune in crop solanaceous systems in the Mediterranean region. A focus is done on an invasive spider mite, Tetranychus evansi. While considered to be native to South America this tropical species has emerged as a new damaging pest in more temperate areas of the planet, in Europe and in other continents. Population genetics approaches unrevealed that colonization routes of the mite are complex. By distinguishing among multiple pathways and timing of introductions, there is evidence for different genoyptes of T. evansi responding to climate in distinct ways, affecting the ability of populations to adapt and being invasive. The effect of climate change affecting future range shifts is taking in consideration by using niche distribution modelling under several climatic scenarios. By exploring plant protection strategies along with predicting pest adaptation, much effort has been done on classical biological control to find native predators (Phytoseiidae mite family) in the area of origin of the pest, but none are completely efficient. Also, the introduction of exotic natural enemies is more and more questioned, in an environmental side effects point of view. More relevant would be to explore how the agroecosystem diversification could be managed to limit pest species abundance (under the resource concentration hypothesis) and to enhance natural enemy diversity and abundance (under the natural enemy hypothesis). To exploit natural biodiversity but also predicting the species potential for range expansion under new climatic conditions, appear as highly informative to advance adapted strategies for climate-smart agriculture. ­

Fostering Climate Smart Agriculture : what role for voluntary sustainability standards?

G. Balineau (Agence Française de Développement, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Fostering Climate Smart Agriculture : what role for voluntary sustainability standards?

G. Balineau (1)
(1) Agence Française de Développement, Paris, France

Abstract content

Greenhouse gas emissions are seen by economists and others as negative externalities of production (and, to a lesser extent, consumption, and trade. In this context, two ways of regulating “environment” are generally considered for public action: “command-and-control” orders (that is to say legislative and/or coercive regulation) and/or “market-based” instruments (for example creating a market for pollution rights). However, a “third wave of regulation” [Tietenberg, 1998, “Disclosure strategies for pollution control”, Environmental and Resource Economics, 11, 587-602] has emerged since two or three decades, based on information provision. This is especially the case in agriculture, where smart consumers should be linked to smart producers: Eco-labels (aslo called "voluntary sustainability standards") such as “carbon free” or “environmental-friendly” assertions, which have proliferated since the 1990s are part of this third wave of environmental regulation based on information provision. What can be their role for mitigation and adaptation to climate change? How can we paradoxically solve production externalities through the so-called “responsible” consumption while consumers should be rational and free ride when they are told to contribute to common or public goods? To assess the efficiency of eco-labels in contributing mitigation and adaptation challenges, we have to answer 3 questions:

  • First, do eco-labels explicitly include the objectives of mitigation and adaptation to climate change? Studying charters and standards for forest-based products and cocoa, we show that mitigation criteria are almost systematically included in eco-labels standards, whereas this is clearly not the case for adaptation ones.
  • Second, why should eco-labels be successful in inducing consumers’ behaviors’ change when regulation and market-based instruments failed? We show that there are two hypotheses behind the efficiency of labels: i) consumers are willing to pay for contributing to common or public goods and ii) labels solve two types of asymmetry/uncertainty: the first is an asymmetry of information “a la Akerlof” [Akerlof, G. A.: 1970, ‘The Market for ‘‘Lemons’’: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488–500], the second is an uncertainty “a la Darby and Karni” [Darby, M. and E. Karni: 1973, ‘Free Competition and the Optimal Amount of Fraud’, Journal of Law and Economics, 16(1), 67–88]. Research show that i) consumers are willing to pay for common goods, ii) asymmetry of information about the respect of standards is not a problem but that iii) uncertainty about the efficiency of standards (i.e. what criteria should eco-labels include) is still prevalent.
  • Third, labels should not create new externalities or perverse effect, which could be the case if; for example, consumers do not consider the impact of their aggregated consumption but only by units consumed.

As a conclusion, we draw the lessons in terms of possible action for donors and public powers. 

Private Sector Actions to Enable Climate-Smart Agriculture in Small-Scale Farming in East Africa

S. Quail (University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America), L. Onyango, (Maseno University, Maseno, Kenya), J. Kinyangi (ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), J. Recha (International Livestock Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Private Sector Actions to Enable Climate-Smart Agriculture in Small-Scale Farming in East Africa

S. Quail (1) ; L. Onyango, (2) ; J. Kinyangi (3) ; J. Recha (4)
(1) University of Florida, School of forest resources and conservation, Gainesville, United States of America; (2) Maseno University, Urban and regional planning, Maseno, Kenya; (3) ILRI, Ccafs east africa, Nairobi, Kenya; (4) International Livestock Research Institute, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

Climate change is projected to disrupt food production in East Africa, in particular for small-scale farmers; however, adoption of agricultural innovations is linked to improved food production and food security, which in turn, will help farmers adopt to altered weather patterns. Agricultural innovations are comprised of practices that increase crop productivity and improve the natural resource base that crops are grown on that improve the resilience of agricultural systems. Access to equipment, farm tools, tree seedlings, seeds, agrochemical inputs, etc. - all which are channeled through private sector entities – are needed for the realization of those innovations. Moreover, dissemination of climate information and improved farming practices needed for climate smart agricultural landscapes, which typically fall under the purview of government extension, may be more effectively diffused through the private sector.

The private sector plays the most important role in financing agricultural investments, innovation and information dissemination where constraints on government investment render private sector actions all the more important. In East Africa, little is known about the participation of small businesses, independent traders, farmer organizations, large-scale wholesalers, marketing boards and cooperatives in climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and its diffusion to small-scale farmers. In particular, small companies and the informal sector are out of view. Yet such information is critical in exploring how best to harness private sector comparative advantage to benefit the food security of small-scale farmers in East Africa impacted by a changing climate. This study is an attempt to fill this research gap and examines patterns of, and incentives for, private sector investments and activities in climate-smart agriculture at three pilot projects implemented by Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) in Nyando, Kenya; Hoima, Uganda; and Lushoto, Kenya.   

This research uses social network analysis (SNA) to examine relationships between private sector actors and farmers to visualize and interpret patterns of networks for information services for the following areas: climate, crop and livestock extension, credit and banking, and legal.  It also examines supply chains of agricultural inputs, as well as agricultural product value chains. Focus group discussions and surveys were administered to 289 farmers. Local businesses were also interviewed. This study also examines local-level linkages with national agricultural organizations to determine if the latter play a role in facilitating climate-smart agriculture.

Preliminary results suggest that independent traders dominate trade in all sites and that even though the supply of inputs is sufficient, farmers often lack access to credit. Also, distinctive differences exist in terms of the concentration of business activity amongst local actors and the diversity of marketable crops produced. The efforts of Kenya’s National Farmer’s Federation to establish locally based farmer’s groups is reflected in its highly diversified groups that grade amongst themselves, in contrast to Uganda where a select few dominate locally traded agricultural output. Lushoto’s proximity to Dar es Salaam is evidenced in its high number of independent traders, and to a lesser extent, locally registered businesses. Despite its high level of trade, it is also the least food secure of the three sites. The results indicate that while independent traders focus primarily on the trading of crops, they do disseminate information relevant to climate smart agriculture suggesting that efforts to strengthen this sector is important. Finally, the implications of these findings for food security are discussed. This study demonstrates that social network analysis is an important tool for identifying which private sector actors can be strategically targeted for strengthening efforts to scale up climate-smart agriculture and where weaknesses in input and output supply chains exist.

Exploring socio-economic and bio-physical indicators for trade-offs in Climate Smart Agriculture adoption: a case study from Tanzania and Uganda

C. Mwongera (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya), L. Winowiecki (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya), K. Shikuku (International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Nairobi, Kenya), P. Läderach (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Hanoi, Vietnam)

Abstract details
Exploring socio-economic and bio-physical indicators for trade-offs in Climate Smart Agriculture adoption: a case study from Tanzania and Uganda

C. Mwongera (1) ; L. Winowiecki (2) ; K. Shikuku (1) ; P. Läderach (3)
(1) International Center for Tropical Agriculture, DAPA/Soils, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Soils, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Ciat - asia, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abstract content

The contribution of climate smart agriculture (CSA) in the achievement of sustainable development goals under climate change cannot be overemphasized. CSA sustainably increases productivity, enhances resilience, lowers greenhouse gas emissions, and enhances achievement of national food security. In employing CSA, a critical gap lies in the understanding and correct representation of trade-offs across temporal and spatial scales to inform decision makers. The challenge is greater in smallholder farming systems in East Africa, implied by their highly diverse and complex bio-physical and socio-economic environments all of which produce multiple livelihood strategies, opportunities, and constraints for agricultural productivity. Unlocking the indicators for trade-offs in these production system is key in understanding prospective or ex-ante effects of technology changes and the bio-physical, social and economic outcomes under climate change.

We illustrate key bio-physical and socio-economic indicators for trade-offs in CSA adoption, across diverse landscapes drawing on household surveys in four districts in the Acholi sub-region of northern Uganda and four districts across the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania in 2014. The data revealed key indicators include yield, input use, gender-disaggregated labor, off-farm employment, asset poverty, on-farm food security and soil health. The indicators varied across and between sites. In addition we use the indicators to show the tradeoffs in CSA adoption between economic outcomes (greater farm income) and environmental and social outcomes (increased environmental health, reduction in poverty levels, reduced labour demand) across landscapes and to determine the likelihood that farmers will adopt new practices. For instance farmers are less likely to make changes during months of food insufficiency as they engage more in off-farm employment. In addition ownership of farm assets enhances the uptake of CSA. Some practices such as slash and burn, common in northern Uganda lower soil quality with negative impact on adoption of CSA practices. Engaging heavily in off-farm employment can be an indication of low farm income and willingness to change current practice. In other contexts CSA might require more time spent on the farm reducing the likelihood of engaging in off-farm activities. Farmers with better soil health were generally more willing to adopt CSA practices that in areas with high land degradation. Socio-economic attributes such as higher off-farm income, high education levels, good technical knowledge and high social preference also increase the likelihood of CSA adoption.

This analysis revealed key barriers for each of the communities that need to be overcome in order to implement and out-scale adoption of locally appropriate CSA practices as well as the importance of assessing the spatial and social context.  The study highlights that assessing bio-physical and socio-economic trade-offs indicators across diverse environments could help to better target CSA farming systems  to foster adaptation to climate change.

The Dynamics of East African Climate and the Suitability of crop Mapping over the Mountainous Areas in a changing climate

G. Otieno (university of nairobi, nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
The Dynamics of East African Climate and the Suitability of crop Mapping over the Mountainous Areas in a changing climate

G. Otieno (1)
(1) university of nairobi, meteorolgy, nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

The East African region is bordered by mountains that are crucial in modulating the climate of the region. The current evidence of climate change and climate variability poses risks to the sustainable development of the society.

The study examined trends in projected rainfall and air temperature and suitability of growing major staple food under a changing climate around the mountainous areas of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia.

The data used were observed rainfall, temperature datasets, the second version of African Rainfall Climatology (ARC2) for the period 1981-2010 and future projection from 2011-2040. The downscaled model estimates of future climate scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5) from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5). The Mann-Kendal test was used for trend analysis and the FAO ECO-crop model was used for suitability mapping of various agricultural zones for production of maize and beans at the lowlands and down slope of the mountainous areas.

At least ten stations indicated a temperature rise of  0.3 per decade. High seasonal rainfall variability was experienced during March-May and October-December seasons. The values of Mann-Kendal were in the range of 0.8 - 2.0. The projection showed that temperature will continue to rise by about   0.5 per decade.

There was marginal suitability for production of beans and maize over most parts of the four countries. Most of the western and central part of Kenya showed high potential for production of the two crops. This trend was also reported in central Part of Uganda and coastal area of Tanzania.

The future suitability mapping for crops production showed quite similar patterns as the current situation. The highland and rift valley regions would no longer be suitable for growing the crops. The increased human activities around these regions like deforestation probably could account for the decline in suitability of growing these crops. 

The threats from climate change are likely to impact negatively on the agricultural activities around the mountainous areas.  The farming community living around the slopes of the mountainous areas should diversify the farming activities and best practices to cope with current climate variability and adapt to future climate changes.

Climate Smart Adaptation on Lake Kariba: A Case Study of Siavonga District

M. Kabisa (University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia)

Abstract details
Climate Smart Adaptation on Lake Kariba: A Case Study of Siavonga District

M. Kabisa (1)
(1) University of Zambia, Geography and Environmental Sciences, Lusaka, Zambia

Abstract content

  Siavonga district has for the last two decades experienced declining, unpredictable and poorly distributed rainfall and experiencing climate change impacts. Climate impact studies on Lake Kariba Kapenta fish stocks show increased temperature and reduced rainfall are the main climatic factors affecting fish catch. This has led to reduced primary productivity, fish productivity and resulted in reduced Kapenta fish catch. These studies however, have not considered resource users perceptions and their adaptation to climatic variability and change.

The adaptation strategies of Kapenta fishers to climate variability and their perceptions were investigated in Siavonga district, using primary data collected by a structured questionnaire, interview schedule and secondary data. A random sampling technique was used to select 90 Kapenta fishers on Lake Kariba. Descriptive statistics, Multiple Regression Analysis, Pearson Correlation Coefficient and a Likert scale were used to analyze the data collected.

Strategies employed by the Fishers to adapt to impacts of climate variability included no adaptation (9.5%), shifting fishing times (28.8%), fishing for longer time periods (38.4%), fishing in waters further away than before (69.9%), changing  fishing gear (8.2%), catching smaller fish (8.2%), alternative livelihoods (5.5%) and ‘Other’ specified options (6.8%). About 64.3% of the strategies used have the potential to be climate-smart as they comply with Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook by FAO (2010) and Principles of the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries Management.

The fishers who were adapting did not all exclusively use one strategy. Based on the number of strategies employed, 36 respondents (44.6%) used a single strategy, 27 respondents (33.9%) used two, 12 respondents (14.3%) used three, 4 respondents (5.4%) used four and 1 respondent (1.8%) used five adaptation strategies. This implies that the fishers are diversifying ways to deal with climate impacts on the catch and use a variety of strategies depending on which option is available at the time.

The respondents noted that there were constraints to adapting to climate variability. A total of 66 (82%) of the adapting fishers stated that they faced some difficulties in adapting. Of these, 48 respondents (60%) cited a lack of money as being the main constraint to adaptation and 24 respondents (30%) cited other reasons. 

A total of 79 Kapenta fishers (87.7%) were aware of climate variability. In terms of the amount of rainfall in the district, 44 respondents (49.2%) perceived a decrease and 25 respondents (27.9%) perceived an increase. In terms of temperature, 31 respondents (34.4%) stated there was an increase and 10 respondents (11.5%) perceived a decrease. About 15 respondents (16.4 %) perceived an increase in Kapenta catches and 53 respondents (59%) perceived a decrease in catches. The Regression model gave an R2 value of 0.195.  Multiple Regression analysis showed that Age (p ≤ 0.01), Years of Fishing Experience (p ≤ 0.024) and Access to Extension services (p ≤ 0.054) have the most significant relationship with perceptions as well as having the highest Beta values contributing to perceptions to climate variability. Pearson correlation coefficients showed that the independent variables are not highly correlated. They had a range of values between -0.273 and 0.066, which are below 0.3, indicating a small strength of association.

Tropical climate-smart soil conservation technologies for agro-ecosystem resilience

S. Mesele (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), H. E.j. (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), A. J.o. (Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Tropical climate-smart soil conservation technologies for agro-ecosystem resilience

S. Mesele (1) ; H. E.j. (1) ; A. J.o. (2)
(1) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture, West Africa Soil Health Consortia, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) Federal University of Agriculture, Soil science and land management, Abeokuta, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Enhancing resilience in ecosystem changes for improved agro-ecosystem services is a prerequisite for sustainable land management. Sustainable land management in the context of climate change presents great potential for protection and enhancement of ecosystem services in all land use systems. The degradation of water, soil and vegetation, as well as greenhouse gas emissions contributing to climate change can be significantly abridged by climate-smart soil conservation technologies that simultaneously conserve natural resources and increase crop yields. These climate-smart soil conservation technologies are however scattered and poorly documented in the literature with varying levels of adoption among the smallholder farmers who are the backbone of tropical agriculture. This paper therefore reviews different soil conservation technologies that have been found effective in different agro-ecological zones, and with the capacity to enhance resilience in tropical agro-ecosystems. These technologies were grouped into improved farming system technologies, soil cover/residue management technologies, cropping system technologies, soil management technologies, soil fertility amendments technologies, and mechanical field technologies. The need for further research, extension and appropriate policy formulations on these technologies were further highlighted. It was concluded that no single technology is best for any particular area in the tropics but a combination of two or more technologies or systems within the technologies may be very effective and productive in terms of increased crop production and sustainable land management, particularly, within the socio-economic competencies of smallholder farmers.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Technique a Tool for Assessing and Comparing Sustainability of Climate Smart Agriculture Systems with Conventional Agricultural Systems

B. Talukder (Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, ON, Canada), A. Blay-Palmer, (Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada), G. W. Vanloon (Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada), K. W. Hipel (Waterloo University, Waterloo, Canada), R. Milne (Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada)

Abstract details
Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) Technique a Tool for Assessing and Comparing Sustainability of Climate Smart Agriculture Systems with Conventional Agricultural Systems

B. Talukder (1) ; A. Blay-Palmer, (2) ; GW. Vanloon (3) ; KW. Hipel (4) ; R. Milne (5)
(1) Wilfrid Laurier University, Geography and Environmental Studies, Waterloo, ON, Canada; (2) Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada; (3) Queen’s University, School of environmental studies, Kingston, Canada; (4) Waterloo University, System engineering department, Waterloo, Canada; (5) Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of geography and environmental studies, Waterloo, Canada

Abstract content

Assessing and comparing sustainability of climate smart agriculture (CSA) systems with conventional agricultural (CA) systems is essential for future policy and planning of CSA. In this paper we proposed a holistic approach based on MCDA methodological approach that helps to assess and compare CSA with CA. Through a case study from south west coastal region of Bangladesh the sustainability of CSA and CA are assessed and compared. To assess and compare of CSA and CA the indicators were developed based on productivity, stability, efficiency, durability, compatibility and equity categories of sustainability of agricultural systems. To develop indicators, data was gathered through questionnaire survey, secondary information, focus group discussion and key informant interview. The indicators of six categories of sustainability were assessed and compared through weighting and aggregation methods of MCDA. The findings of this research work demonstrate the overall sustainability status of CDA and CA.  The results of the study show that this approach has the potential to become a useful framework for agricultural sustainability assessment of CSA.

Salinity a Deleterious Impacts of Climate Change: Biochemical and Physiological indicators of adaptation of Vicia faba L. to Salt Stress

F. Anaya (Faculty of Science Semlalia, University Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech, Morocco), R. Fghire (Faculty of Science Semlalia, University Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech, Morocco), S. Wahbi (Faculty of Science Semlalia, University Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech, Morocco), K. Loutfi (Faculty of Science Semlalia, University Cadi Ayyad, Marrakech, Morocco)

Abstract details
Salinity a Deleterious Impacts of Climate Change: Biochemical and Physiological indicators of adaptation of Vicia faba L. to Salt Stress

F. Anaya (1) ; R. Fghire (1) ; S. Wahbi (1) ; K. Loutfi (1)
(1) Faculty of Science Semlalia, University Cadi Ayyad, Biology/Laboratory of Biotechnology and plant physiology, Marrakech, Morocco

Abstract content

Plant physiological processes are invariably linked to the deleterious influences of climate change. Salinity stress is considered as one of the major abiotic stresses which strongly reduced crop productivity. In order to assess the effect of salinity constraint on some physiological and biochemical traits in broad bean (Vicia faba L.), two cultivars (Extra Hative and Lobab), originated from Morocco, representatives of two climatic zones were evaluated for their response to salt stress. In this study, the biochemical and physiological responses of two salt stresses levels (0 and 150mM NaCl) on V. faba L. and the effect of exogenous salicylic acid (0.5 mM) at 150mM salt stress were investigated. The irrigation with salt water (150 mM of NaCl) was applied after 15 days of sowing for 21 days. The biochemical and physiological characteristics of Vicia faba L. were measured including: leaf water potential, Stomatal conductance, membrane permeability, chlorophyll content and antioxidant activity (PPO, POD and SOD). The results showed that the physiological and biochemical parameters were affected by salt concentration and there were varying responses between varieties. Thus irrigation with saline water significantly reduced all plant biochemical and physiological parameters in comparison to the respective control. Indeed, Salinity affected leaf water potential, Stomatal conductance and perturbation of membrane permeability. However salt stress caused an activation of oxidative enzymes (PPO, POD and SOD). The increasing of the antioxidant activities was significantly (p<0.05) correlated with salt stress. These results suggest that antioxidant enzymes play an important role in reducing oxidative stress in the broad bean exposed to salt stress. Nevertheless the protein and chlorophyll content showed an increasing with salt stress. Alleviation of growth arrest was observed with exogenous applications of salicylic acid (SA) under salt stress conditions. Overall, the positive effect of SA towards resistance to the salinity of V.faba L. will provide some practical basis for V.faba L cultivation. Elsewhere comparison between cultivars resulted in significant difference of tolerance where the Extra hative present the better performance under salt stress. From these results, we conclude that High levels of salinity negatively affected growth parameters, although selection of tolerant cultivars is a viable solution as the case of Extra hative in this study.

Climate smart rice practice under drip irrigation

T. Parthasarathi (Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, India), V. Koothan (Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Aduthurai, India), S. Mohandass (Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, India), V. Eli (Netafim Irrigation Ltd, Israel, Israel)

Abstract details
Climate smart rice practice under drip irrigation

T. Parthasarathi (1) ; V. Koothan (2) ; S. Mohandass (3) ; V. Eli (4)
(1) Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Crop Physiology, Coimbatore, India; (2) Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Tamil nadu rice research institute, Aduthurai, India; (3) Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Department of crop physiology, Coimbatore, India; (4) Netafim Irrigation Ltd, Agronomy chief, Israel, Israel

Abstract content

Drip irrigation studies were conducted in aerobic rice during Dry Season (DS), 2011 Summer Season (SS) 2012 and Summer Season (SS) 2013 in Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India. Drip irrigation treatments comprised of three levels of lateral distance (0.6, 0.8 or 1.0 m lateral distance) with the two discharge rates (0.6 or 1.0 L h-1 emitters) in DS 2011. In SS 2012, 2013 the micro irrigation treatments namely; surface, sub surface drip irrigation (SDI) and conventional aerobic rice practice. Among the lateral distances, 0.8 m lateral distance registered as the optimum spacing for the better performance in root characters, growth and yield attributes than rest of the lateral distances. From the surface-drip and sub-surface drip irrigation (SDI) treatments, the SDI performed better in terms of root character, growth and yield attributes. Interactively, laterals spaced at 0.8 m with 1.0 L h-1 drippers laid sub surface-drip through fertigation exhibited better performance in terms of root parameters (such as root length, Root Mass Density, root biomass and root volume) along with growth attributes (Leaf Area Index, Specific Leaf Weight, Crop Growth Rate and Net Assimilation Rate), yield and its components (such as productive tillers, spikelet numbers, filled grain percentage and Harvest Index) along with water saving when compared with the conventional irrigation treatment. Drip irrigated plants emitted lesser methane over the others. Therefore, it is suggested that the lateral spacing of 0.8 m with 1.0 L h-1 drippers under SDI through fertigation is adjudged as a climate smart practice for enhancing the values for water productivity, grain yield and reducing methane emission in areas of limited water availability.

Indigenous Knowledge as Local Response to Globalization and Climate Change in Nigeria/Africa

G. Nwaka (Abia State University, Uturu, Uturu, Abia State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Indigenous Knowledge as Local Response to Globalization and Climate Change in Nigeria/Africa

G. Nwaka (1)
(1) Abia State University, Uturu, Humanities and Social Sciences, Uturu, Abia State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Indigenous Knowledge as Local Response to Globalization and Climate Change in Nigeria/Africa

 

As we consider the Post-2015 Development Agenda for Africa, indigenous knowledge may prove to be “the single largest knowledge resource not yet mobilized in the development enterprise”. Critics of African development liken the current pattern of development in the continent to building a house from the roof down as “all the institutions of modernization appear to be suspended over societies that have no firm connection to them, and whose indigenous institutions, even when oriented in the right direction, lack the necessary scaffolding to connect them to their modern surrogates”. Africa contributes least to, but suffers the most from the disastrous consequences of climate change. While the industrialized and more affluent countries are rightly being called upon to take greater responsibility for the current global environmental and economic crises, Marshall Sahlins has rightly emphasized the need for all peoples “to indigenize the forces of global modernity, and turn them to their own ends”, as the real impact of globalization depends largely on the responses developed at the local level. How can Africa engage with globalization, and cope more effectively with the worsening threats of flooding, droughts and other emergencies that result from extreme weather conditions?

For a long time African customs and traditions were misconceived as irrational and incompatible with the conventional strategies of development. But the current global economic and ecological crises have exposed flaws in the Western neo-liberal model of development which is largely to blame for these problems, and for widening inequalities within and between nations. With the obvious underperformance of the Millennium Development Goals in Africa, there is now renewed interest in an alternative approach   which emphasizes the cultural dimension of development, and the overlooked potential of indigenous knowledge. This paper considers how indigenous knowledge and practice can be put to good use in support of good governance, agriculture and natural resource management, poverty alleviation, and the mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Although poverty may sometimes force people in the developing world to use resources unsustainably, most traditional African societies have deeply entrenched ideas about environmental protection and sustainability since their livelihood depends largely on the land and on the stability of the ecosystem. They believe that land and other forms of nature are sacred, and are held in trust by the present day users on behalf of dead ancestors and future generations. Chief Nana Ofori Atta of colonial Ghana emphasized to a British official that “land belongs to a large family of which many are dead, a few a living, and countless hosts are yet unborn”.

The paper argues that the indigenous knowledge movement is not only a useful and creative way to respond to globalization, it also has great potential for the mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While Africa cannot now contemplate an insular and entirely home grown approach to its development, indigenous knowledge offers a model for rethinking and redirecting the development process, and for enlisting positive traditional values and institutions in a way that enables and empowers local actors to take part in their own development.  Development agents, researchers and donors, who often assume a knowledge or capacity vacuum in Africa, should instead try to tap into indigenous knowledge for locally appropriate ways of forecasting weather systems, traditional techniques of soil management, pest and disease control, adopting suitable crop and animal varieties, and so on. By building on the indigenous we can make development more participatory and sustainable, and also promote intercultural dialogue in African development.

 

 

Toward a transdisciplinary framework for inter-relating indigenous knowledge systems and disaster risk reduction

S. Athayde (University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America), M.-A. Baudoin (Climate and Development initiative, cape Town, South Africa), S. Lambert (Lincoln University, Christchurch, New Zealand), V. Okorie (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ife, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Toward a transdisciplinary framework for inter-relating indigenous knowledge systems and disaster risk reduction

S. Athayde (1) ; MA. Baudoin (2) ; S. Lambert (3) ; V. Okorie (4)
(1) University of Florida, Center for latin american studies, Gainesville, United States of America; (2) Climate and Development initiative, geology, cape Town, South Africa; (3) Lincoln University, Christchurch, New Zealand; (4) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ife, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Perceptions of natural hazards and climate change vary across regions, societies and culture. While “western” expert-based knowledge focus on measuring, defining and forecasting hazards' occurrence, frequency and localization, local perceptions at the community level – often referred to as “indigenous knowledge” (IK) - adopts a context-specific and holistic view of natural, climate-related and human-made hazards and disasters. Indigenous knowledge systems intertwine cultural, symbolic, technological knowledge, natural resource management practices, beliefs and worldviews in perceiving, preparing and managing disasters.

This talk presents the preliminary results of a follow-up project from the Risk Interpretation and Action (RIA) Fellows of the International Social Science Council, involving indigenous and non-indigenous researchers and practitioners. Acknowledging the diversity of perceptions and understandings of risks, this collaborative work aims to develop an exploratory transdisciplinary framework drawing from literature review as well as from experiences and challenges faced by indigenous peoples in developed (USA, New Zealand) and developing regions (Nigeria, Brazil). The framework can be applied to foster dialogue and guide research and policy-making involving indigenous peoples in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA), recognizing limitations and power issues in coordinating different knowledge systems, and respecting indigenous peoples’ self-determination, worldviews and concerns.

With an objective to enhance cross-disciplinary learning, the proposed framework offers a broader understanding of disaster risks among indigenous people, scientists, practitioners and managers. Its structure encompasses (and adapts) the usual three phases of the DRR process, represented by indigenous symbols: preparedness (pre-disaster); response (during disaster); and recovery (post-disaster), adding a fourth transversal component, critical during the three phases, and related to framing, understanding and fostering dialogue across knowledge systems. Thus, the framework distinguishes common and contrasting features of DRR and CCA across diverse regions, cultures and types of disasters; it presents nuances of ‘risk perception’ and ‘risk interpretation’ among indigenous communities in different countries and contexts, as well as their creative responses or ‘risk action’.

The outcomes of this study will be used to connect, foster exchange of ideas and experience, and facilitate training and learning among representatives of indigenous communities who face natural, industrial and climate change-related hazards. Moreover, this research contributes to foster transdisciplinary dialogue and research on indigenous, academic and practical knowledge systems towards DRR and CCA in a global scale.

Toponymy of an occupation early hunter gatherers in marine Quintero

C. Fuentevilla (Universidad Arcis, Santiago, Chile)

Abstract details
Toponymy of an occupation early hunter gatherers in marine Quintero

C. Fuentevilla (1)
(1) Universidad Arcis, Santiago, Santiago, Chile

Abstract content

This is a presentation of the state of the art of research conducted in a series of explorations in the line of rocks from San Fuentes Lace up Pirate's Cove area, in the town of Quintero, Chile, between 2011 and 2013. It describes the finding of lithic evidence in five archaeological sites observed from perforations in the rocks as water toponymy signaling; based on the experience of discontinuous occupation of marine hunter-gatherers. As a result of continental settlement in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene epochs. This paleoenvironmental context generated conditions of survival, which according to weather representations, allowed the survival of anthropogenic Paleoindian presence. However the latitudinal gradient was also exposed to periods of cooling or neoglaciation. Therefore, while climate change was constant, it created new demands for adaptation in order to ensure the survival of hunter-gatherers. Therefore, their lithic technology fitted the necessary mobility of the group. A synchrony between their social structure and technology in understanding their decisions, represented in a toponymy of lithic signs to identify water as a source of survival. Keywords: Hunter-gatherers, paleoenvironment, lithic toponymy, Paleoindian, climate change.

Indigenous knowledge for seasonal weather and climate forecasting across East Africa

M. Radeny (ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), M. Nyasimi (ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), J. Kinyangi (ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), J. Recha (ILRI, Nairobi, Kenya), D. Mubiru (NARO, Kampala, Uganda), H. Hahoo (Sokoine University, Morogoro, Tanzania, United Republic of), H. Mahoo (Sokoine University, Morogoro, Tanzania, United Republic of), D. Y. Ayal (UNISA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia)

Abstract details
Indigenous knowledge for seasonal weather and climate forecasting across East Africa

M. Radeny (1) ; M. Nyasimi (1) ; J. Kinyangi (1) ; J. Recha (1) ; D. Mubiru (2) ; H. Hahoo (3) ; H. Mahoo (3) ; DY. Ayal (4)
(1) ILRI, CCAFS East Africa, Nairobi, Kenya; (2) NARO, Kawanda, Kampala, Uganda; (3) Sokoine University, Agricultural engineering and land planning, Morogoro, Tanzania, United Republic of; (4) UNISA, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Abstract content

Advance knowledge of climate information is important in helping farmers make decisions about allocation of land, labor, and agricultural enterprises in a season. It enhances their capacity to adapt to climate variably and climate change. Climate information coupled with agro-advisory services offers greater potential to manage climate related risks in the face of increasing uncertainty. While progress has been made in provision of climate services for farmers, significant gaps still exist with regard to downscaling location-specific forecasts, reliability, timeliness, and user-friendly climate information that effectively addresses the needs of farmers. Consequently, most farmers rely on indigenous knowledge (IK) for their seasonal forecasts, where locally observed variables and experiences are used to assess and predict the local weather conditions and particularly the onset of rains as it determines the sequence of many of the farm operations. However, IK experiences for climate forecasting are not widely documented and often passed on from one generation to the other through oral history and local expertise, creating a wide inter-generational gap between its custodians and the young generation.

This paper presents a synthesis of existing IK in weather forecasting across four sites in three East Africa countries — Borana (Ethiopia), Lushoto (Tanzania) and Hoima and Rakai (Uganda). Across the sites, farmers and livestock herders use various local indicators to predict weather patterns, especially the onset, magnitude and cessation of the rainy seasons. The indicators can be grouped into three main categories: meteorological traditional indicators, astronomical indicators and biological indicators. Meteorological indicators commonly used to predict onset of rains included appearance of dark clouds, direction and strength of the wind, maximum and minimum temperature, plant responses to changing conditions, monitoring of the physical state of water and off-season advance indicators of cloud behavior at night. For instance, excessive heat and warming towards the end of the dry season indicates a likelihood of above normal rainfall. Similarly, high temperatures during the night indicates a likelihood of rainfall the next day. Astrological weather indicators include the position and appearance of the moon and sun. In Lushoto, the occurrence of a halo moon indicates the likelihood of the onset of rains for both major and minor seasons. In Ethiopia, the Borana herders employ astrological indicators and interpret the alignment of celestial bodies including the size and appearance of the star, the brightness of the sun, and appearance and form of cloud cover. Biological indicators are further disaggregated into animal and plant indicators. A change in animal behavior at the onset of rains is believed to be triggered by aroma from volatile compounds that increase in intensity when changes occur in humidity. In Uganda, the sound from amphibians during day time and those of specific birds are used widely to estimate the likelihood of the onset of rain. In Tanzania, appearance of certain physiological stages of insect populations, such as thrips in the wetland indicates the likelihood of an above normal rainfall season. Plant indicators most frequently used in Uganda included the sprouting of young shoots of the Mvule tree and blossoming of coffee bushes.  In Tanzania, common plant indicators included flowering of venonia, pears, Albizia spp. and plums. Shedding of leaves of black nightshade also indicate the onset of rain.

We observe that farmers and herders were using these local indicators to make important agricultural production decisions including the timing of land preparation, dry planting, and purchase of seeds, type of crops to grow, agronomic practices to use, and labor allocation. In Borana, IK forecasts are used to plan livestock mobility and sharing of livestock amongst relatives to minimize losses during drought conditions. In Ethiopia and Tanzania, farmers considered IK climate forecasting a reliable source of climate information. They extend IK for forecasting of extreme events e.g. droughts and timing of the onset of rains. The paper demonstrates that farmers’ trust and willingness to apply scientific forecasts would likely increase when IK forecasting are integrated with modern scientific methods. Therefore, a systematic documentation of IK and a framework for integrating IK and scientific forecasting from the national meteorological agencies can improve the accuracy of climate forecasts for farmers in East Africa.

The Coastal Community as Context for Culture-Based Science Literacy

H. Buenvenida (Department of Education, Roxas City, Philippines)

Abstract details
The Coastal Community as Context for Culture-Based Science Literacy

H. Buenvenida (1)
(1) Department of Education, Science Education, Roxas City, Philippines

Abstract content

People in a community who are closely connected to the local surroundings were often the first to notice their surroundings. This is because their knowledge is derived from long-term observational data maintained through an oral tradition. It is for this reason that the knowledge held by the community needs to be reflected in local classrooms. When we think of something or discover a new fact, we also think of all the interconnections between that fact and everything else. And so it is with their science: it is going to be connected to everything within their culture.The local funds of knowledge in the community included the culture, attitudes, beliefs, concepts, ideas experiences and stories of the people in the coastal community. The local funds of knowledge are stored in the people’s lives, in their environment and their history. The local knowledge, wisdom and experience were valuable, appropriate and still relevant for people and can be capitalized to teach relevant science in schools. These knowledge bases are a rich resource for teaching biology, environmental science and ecology.

There were identified barriers in the teaching and learning situation in coastal communities; academic, situational, and dispositional. The set of learning materials represents my attempt to delineate a preparation content covering how regular classrooms and schools should be designed to ensure all students have appropriate opportunities to learn effectively. This, of course, includes the many that manifest commonplace behavior, learning, and emotional problem. However these materials develop are targeted to address the academic barrier .Nonetheless, parallel to the development of the materials, an approach (culture-based; contextualization: and community-based learning) was also espoused to enrich the material in its delivery to the mainstream classroom. The materials represent my attempt to deliver learning to the local students to answer some usual problems in their place; pollution, health, environmental protection, climate change mitigation, disaster risk reduction and preparedness and biodiversity.  Relative to this, training, seminars, workshops are also recommended to address the said barriers.

This research suggests means and ways on how to respond to the question of how to support science teaching in rural and coastal settings and frames challenges to student learning as disconnects between community-based and school-based forms of science. This disconnect occurs when students do not see how the science in schools has value in or relates to their lived experiences and when schools do not see how the lived experiences of  learners have value in learning and doing science. I have presented here a case of what I call "connected science," which uses real-world problems and school—community partnerships as contextual scaffolds to bridge these diverse funds of knowledge.

The study developed two important theoretical contributions. First a model on how to create culturally relevant community-based learning through: (a) mining local funds of knowledge from the community, (b) constructing cultural memory bank, (c) developing a contextual-learning strategy for coastal communities, (d) developing a tailor-fitted instructional material for coastal communities and (d) teaching culture-based, and context-based science in schools. The second contribution is the Theory of Community Learning Exchange Valorization .  This theory attempts to conglomerate conceptions and notions about the “mining” of the community funds of knowledge and the way this knowledge can be “valorized”   and be “given back”  to the community.

On a final note drawing on the assets of the communitycan help schools build citizens while infusing academic course work with meaning and relevance. Rather than diluting the school curriculum, community-based learning strategies increase the intensity of learning and the likelihood that young people will transfer knowledge and skills to new situations. By fostering student interest in their respective communities, these strategies sow the seeds of lifelong learning. When students see themselves as citizens, they take responsibility for what happens to their neighborhoods, communities, and country at large

Wunan Law and Human Identity through Connections with Country

J. Doring (Parthway, Broome WA, Australia)

Abstract details
Wunan Law and Human Identity through Connections with Country

J. Doring (1)
(1) Parthway, Broome WA, Australia

Abstract content

In the Kimberley region of North west Australia, much local knowledge is not only relevant to current scientific observations, but continues the oldest recorded human history of living WITH country. Once the first rock art appears documenting the evolution of the Wunan social order, we have ancient evidence of people sharing a complex legal association with landscapes that weave together identity and country binding people to environments inherited in perpetuity. Wunan law remains documented by Gwion rock art, preserved beneath skins of silica crystals leached by weathering from sandstone through a long history that spans millennia of changing climates from estimates of 25,000 years past up to the present day; the film GWION documents Paddy Nyawarra repainting a sentinel Gwion figure standing guard at the junction of three Wunan districts in 1999.  Wunan laws defining human identity through land contradicts the assumptive stereotype of the 'nomadic aboriginal' with nothing new to offer modern science, in fact, and as published in Rock Art Research March 2014, Wunan is living evidence of the longest continuous stable social system documented by the human hand. 

Wunan law proscribes social identity as living connections to country so over time Gwion artists were motivated to portray human figures with unique extensions to their body, making specific social connections to local flora and fauna. Many ancient Wunan law songs about birds and knowledge of Wanjina and Gwion rock art survive in Ngarinyin culture as part of customary law, as declared by native title belatedly recognised by the Federal Court of Australia in 2005. The ancestral evidence documented with cameras by four Ngarinyin munnumburra - experts in Wunan law, has been generously exhibited by three major museums in France. Now we can tell our children about a society that begins not with a warrior or king, but an artist called Wibalma. They can learn how the oldest society to record themselves through art began when the visionary artist Wibalma created the first sacred object, not of an animal but an ethic at the core of social order. Wibalma's sacred object of Justice was the catalyst bringing together many nomadic tribes, to find a consensus around the stone table at Dududu.ngari and fuse their identity with their country forever in Wunan law. Lines of stones mark positions where they stood in line to announce by oath, their homeland and name, in sequence from the central desert to the tropical north coast across to the western coastline. Aboriginal councillors who represent their country in public meetings today still follow the Wunan order of representing various districts.

As documented through the graphic evidence of Gwion artists, the Wunan law system has ordered sustainable land tenure connecting human to country for millennia. Aboriginal people across the Kimberley region continue to carry, but must struggle to preserve their ancestral legacy and protect fresh water resources in opposition to invasive mining projects.   Observations of climate change must incorporate local knowledge, and across the north-west of Australia from desert to saltwater coastline, planners must include the pre-colonial Wunan map of water and country that gave each human being their individual identity. For example the name Nyawarra, refers to outcrops of black basalt appearing in his Wunan district of Galeru.ngarri dambun. Wunan law preserves many insights into the natural history of this extensive region and provides a historically meaningful nomenclature of flora and fauna and local landscapes as the fundamental framework of knowledge for future research and education.

High on the rock wall of Alyaguma covered with ancient paintings of the first matriarchs of  visual metaphors signifying various stages of education throughout life. Starting from the roots of family blood and the single root of Wunan law, education proceeds into maturity once understanding the complex binary system of marriage and environmental relationships to country marked by two separated feet looking down. Then adults educate the new generation symbolised by the ripening plum fruit when monsoonal rains fall from above. The elements and meanings of the painting are illustrated and described with verbatim cultural evidence recorded on site by Ngarinyin munnumburra - experts in Wunan law and the living bush . 

Local Management of Andean Wetlands in Sajama National Park, Bolivia

E. Villarroel (Agua Sustentable, la Paz, Bolivia), P. L. Pacheco Mollinedo (Agua Sustentable, la Paz, Bolivia), A. Domic (Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Campus Universitario de Cota Cota, La Paz, Bolivia), J. Capriles (Instituto de Alta Investigación, Arica, Chile), C. Espinoza (Agua Sustentable, la Paz, Bolivia)

Abstract details
Local Management of Andean Wetlands in Sajama National Park, Bolivia

E. Villarroel (1) ; PL. Pacheco Mollinedo (1) ; A. Domic (2) ; J. Capriles (3) ; C. Espinoza (1)
(1) Agua Sustentable, Climate change adaptation, la Paz, Bolivia; (2) Universidad Mayor de San Andrés, Campus Universitario de Cota Cota, Herbario nacional de bolivia,, La Paz, Bolivia; (3) Instituto de Alta Investigación, Universidad de tarapacá, antofagasta 1520, casilla 6-d, Arica, Chile

Abstract content

Andean Wetlands and territory Management.

Andean wetlands or bofedales are commonly used by indigenous communities for livestock production. Decisions regarding management of bofedales involve the active participation of local people and their social institutions. Consequently, any action addressing emerging challenges must be implemented in coordination and agreement with local actors. This decision process requires an understanding of the local socio-economic and cultural dynamics, especially those related to land and natural resource management. In many Andean communities, the ayllu is the institution that governs decisions on regional land use. However, in the face of increasing challenges such as climate change and population growth, use of the ayllu has declined in favor of individual decision-making. Here we discuss how the Andean camelid herders of Sajama National Park in highland Bolivia rely on both the ayllu and family-level decision-making to manage their pastoralist landscapes, including their bofedales. Using a rights mapping methodology, we describe how water and wetlands are managed, and determine which decisions are taken at the community level and which are made at the family level. We conclude that indigenous collective organization networks are still significant for managing the system at a regional scale and possibly determinant for mitigating risks associated with climate change on sensitive ecosystems such as bofedales.

Since the Spanish conquest in the 16th century, the world view of native Andean indigenous communities had to interact with the dominant sociopolitical systems of the colonial and later republican period (Schiffers 1992, Regalsky 1994, Platt et al 2006). One important element of confrontation between these two visions was the form of land and natural resource management: collective vs individual. Indigenous communities adapted and developed a number of cultural and productive organizational strategies to cope with the new forms of domination, trying to maintain the logic and vision of the Andean territorial management strategies (Orlove 1977; Platt 1982; Spalding 1984).

One of the main strategies in the Andean world was access to the greatest possible number of ecological zones, which was a strategy to achieving food self-sufficiency and also an important risk management tool, mainly for climatic risks (Murra 1972; Browman 1983; Regalsky 1994).

Because of the social and economic importance of wetlands, especially for camelid (llama and alpaca) herders, communities in these areas periodically revise and adapt institutional arrangements for sustainable management. High Andean wetlands, known locally as bofedales, represent one of the most productive native vegetation types of the puna. However, they are seriously threatened by climate change as they depend on constant water flow, which is mostly assured by annual glacier melt and precipitation (Squeo et al 2006; Yager et al 2008; Ruthsatz 2012). In view of these threats, it is particularly important to document how local wetland management strategies are being adapted to cope with emerging challenges (Pinto-Romero 2011; Verzijl and Guerrero Quispe 2013).

Conclusions

The study shows the ability of Andean communities to face up to social and environmental challenges in Sajama National Park. The 5 ayllus that are part of the Park have managed their natural resources, which include Andean wetlands, since precolonial times. In doing so, they have maintained a balance between permanence (the principles and world vision of the Andean culture) and flexibility (changing strategies for adapting to constant environmental, sociopolitical, and economic change).

Finally, we raise the question of how the process of collective vs family-based decision-making will develop in future. Adapting to change appears to have accelerated in the last decades, and market influence is becoming more intrusive in the ayllus’ daily operations. It is worth asking if this process will lead to a gradual dismantling of the ayllu and the loss of one of the main strengths of Andean communities: collective organization networks.

Linguistic Identity and Indigenous Knowledge

L. Zamorshchikova (North-Eastern Federal University, Yakutsk, France)

Abstract details
Linguistic Identity and Indigenous Knowledge

L. Zamorshchikova (1)
(1) North-Eastern Federal University, Institut of modern languages and regional studies, Yakutsk, France

Abstract content

The North as a cultural-historical form of civilization is composed of socio-cultural communities of individuals with well-known and persistent traits and characteristics, such as language, culture, environment, economics and spirituality.  Geographical and cultural conditions of the North influence the formation of similar elements of the mental and linguistic identity of the peoples of the North. The common feature defining all northern communities is the deeply ecological aspects of their culture and recognition of a special relation with nature.

The research is aimed at study of northern world view through free association experiment’s database realized in indigenous communities. The associative verbal nets reveal the peculiarities of spiritual and material culture, ethnic stereotypes of behavior, traditional beliefs and specificity of ethnic world view. The strings of verbal associations translate into assemblages of ideas, identities and behaviours which found their owner experientially located in self-contained worlds of people, events, values, norms and constraints (Rapport, Overing.).

The world view is a major component of culture and contains all the essential elements of traditional and cultural knowledge which an individual, belonging to a particular culture, needs in order to adapt to both natural and social components of his/her surrounding environment. This is the lens, so to say, through which people see the world in which to act. The structure of the world view is shaped in the early stages of ethnogenesis, and remains largely immutable throughout the life of an ethnic group (S. Lurie). It defines ethnic identity and uniqueness of a particular culture and, hence, its carriers – the members of an ethnic group comprising a social community characterized by a specific cultural model which mediates the nature of their activity in the world.

The data of free association experiment (associative-verbal nets) in so far as they reflect unconscious layers of the mind, especially within the context of inter-cultural contact in a multicultural and multilingual environment, present interest not only for the investigation of a variety of scientific problems, but also of many issues of everyday life of indigenous peoples. Language, culture, and the relationship to the land are key elements in a seemingly fragile and yet tenacious Arctic indigenous identity. There is high correlation between language retention and traditional lifestyle of indigenous peoples of the North.  They live in close contact with the land, the sea, and the animals. Many indigenous Arctic peoples continue to live partial or total subsistence lifestyles, which is reflected in their languages, most obviously in their vocabularies, but also in the contents of their everyday stories, which often involve hunting, fishing, and encounters with animals (especially bears).While the links between language, culture and environment may not be obvious to outsiders, they are deeply embedded in the daily life of Northern indigenous peoples (L.Grenoble).

Government policies in the sphere of national relations in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) place particular importance upon questions of vitality of small indigenous peoples' languages and cultures. The indigenous peoples of Yakutia, living in the inhospitable climate of the North, created unique modes of life and have interesting and instructive histories, traditions, and original cultures. Globalization and the pressure of mass culture endanger not only their languages but their traditional ways of life.

The researches of North-East Federal University of Yakutsk has been conducting psycholinguistic research on linguistic identities and indigenous world views of the peoples of the North, living on the territory of Yakutia. In this context linguistic research plays a vital role in the efforts to preserve the ethnic languages and by extension cultures of the people living in the North of Russia (Yakuts, Evens, Evenki, Yukagirs) since language not only communicates, but also encodes essential aspects of cultures and fixe their uniqueness for preserve and translate to the next generations. 

Quantitative analysis of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) as a Milestone Towards Negative Emissions in Egypt

A. Batisha (Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt)

Abstract details
Quantitative analysis of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) as a Milestone Towards Negative Emissions in Egypt

A. Batisha (1)
(1) Environment and Climate Change Research Institute, Cairo, Egypt

Abstract content

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) analysis has been developed with the objective of providing an integrated perspective on Environmental sustainability. Emission baseline has been analyzed on a macro sector basis with a focus on key sectors; Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use and Waste. Data has been collected from available public sources (local and international). A web based IPCC Inventory Software supporting users of the IPCC Guidelines has been used. Additional support to the greenhouse gas emission inventory community by giving inventory compilers a platform for exchange of all the current information and data they need, including a wide range of emission factors has been provided by means of the IPCC Emission Factor Database (EFDB). All Greenhouse Gas emissions divided into IPCC Guidelines Categories may be calculated from sectoral tables. National Key Category Analysis is implemented by performing a quantitative analysis of the relationships between the level and the trend of each category’s emissions and removals and total national emissions and removals. The paper concludes that Sharing of research information may enable the African countries to use or develop emission factors that are more applicable than the IPCC default emission factors and may help to improve the quality of GHG inventories in a cost-effective way.

Current adaptation practices: case studies in France, Portugal and Greece

A. Baills (BRGM, ORLEANS, France), A. Lillebø (University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal), T. Paramana (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, Athens, Greece), C. Parrod (Acteon, Colmar, France), S. Luís (ISCTE-Instituto Universitário de Lisboa, Libon, Portugal), A. Stépanian (BRGM, Marseille, France), G. Le Cozannet (BRGM / CNRS, Orleans, France)

Abstract details
Current adaptation practices: case studies in France, Portugal and Greece

A. Baills (1) ; A. Lillebø (2) ; T. Paramana (3) ; C. Parrod (4) ; S. Luís (5) ; A. Stépanian (6) ; G. Le Cozannet (7)
(1) BRGM, ORLEANS, France; (2) University of Aveiro, Department of biology & cesam, Aveiro, Portugal; (3) National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, Laboratory of physical geography, Athens, Greece; (4) Acteon, Colmar, France; (5) ISCTE-Instituto Universitário de Lisboa, Libon, Portugal; (6) BRGM, Marseille, France; (7) BRGM / CNRS, BRGM-DRP-R3C / CNRS-LGP (UMR-8591), Orleans, France

Abstract content

The warming of the climate system is now unequivocal and a strong warming of air temperature as well as an acceleration of sea-level rise is projected in the Mediterranean regions of Europe (IPCC, 2013). At the same time, adaptation measures are being set up to cope with the impacts of those changes on both the environment and the society. To which extent do these adaptation policies actually meet the challenge posed by future climate change? To answer this question, a detailed understanding of the current practices of adaptation is needed, as well as a comprehensive view of how this adaptation is perceived by its main actors. However, such information is lacking at present. Therefore, a literature review has been combined with 47 semi-structured interviews conducted on three coastal sites in France, Portugal and Greece, where different approaches toward risk prevention and adaptation to climate change are in place. In order to identify gaps between the theoretical framework and the practical situation at local scale; the interviewees have been asked with their general knowledge of climate change (present and future changes) and on the existing and desirable adaptation policies / measures.

The interviews and the literature review underline similarities and differences in the countries approaches, organization and awareness. France, Portugal and Greece have different level of national policies development regarding climate adaptation and climate change awareness can be influenced by local in situ situations. But even when climate change and climate adaptation are subjects of concern, a lack of concrete “local” implementation is pointed out by stakeholders, as very few adaptation measures have been implemented yet. Indeed, climate adaptation is recognized as a traversal issue by the interviewees. Hence, related policies have to fit within already developed and complex sectorial legal frameworks related to water management, risk prevention, health, environment and so forth.

Literature review and stakeholders interviews both highlight the time scale issues related to difference between climate change and political mandate’s time horizons. They also stress a gap between science and non-scientific local stakeholders for expected knowledge and actions, and this gap tends to be reinforced by the complexity of the legal framework for climate adaptation. This complexity is particularly pointed out by interviewees acting at regional and local scales in France, which is the country where adaptation to climate change has been the most considered in various regional sectorial policies.

To overcome these specific barriers to adaptation, the interviewees suggested that one first step could be the creation of interest groups at regional level, gathering all concerned actors and a complementary lead could be to adopt laws at the national level to incite local authorities to act together with regional actors. The next step would then be to design adaptation measures and to assess their efficiency.

 

This work has received funds from the ADAPT-MED project (CIRCLE2-MED).

Lessons from local adaptation governance experiments in Quebec (Canada)

G. Cloutier (Université Laval, Québec, Québec, Canada), J. Glowacki (Université Laval, Québec, QC, France)

Abstract details
Lessons from local adaptation governance experiments in Quebec (Canada)

G. Cloutier (1) ; J. Glowacki (2)
(1) Université Laval, École supérieure d'aménagement du territoire et de développement régional, Québec, Québec, Canada; (2) Université Laval, Québec, QC, France

Abstract content

Adapting local areas to climate change is a wicked problem for local policy makers, as it involves a continuous struggle between the collaborative efforts of multiple stakeholders, the changing of mindsets, the lack of resources and the difficulty in deciding between alternative planning scenarios. Even if the percentage of local governments involved in one way or another in adaptation planning is high, most initiatives never leave the drawing board. This can be attributed to the recent emergence of this concern. As well, the research conducted and the tools developed so far by researchers have little application that could help practitioners with their analysis of interactions between the various climatic impacts and their practices.

Also, decision makers involve, more than ever before, a variety of stakeholders in the decision-making process, following, in that sense, the collaborative planning prescriptions: citizen panels, public hearings, audits, charrettes, etc. contribute to reinforce public participation in local governance. These participation possibilities support, in return, the legitimacy, validity and sustainability of decisions taken. Despite this, development targets and public policies are not always consistent with local contexts and local initiatives. Gaps between theoretical objectives and daily life contribute to the shifting of climate governance outside of the institutional frame of action. This is true not only for climate change: the whole urban political space is moving outside of the traditional frame of action.

The discussion and reflection on how to act and adapt the local space to climate change take place on different grounds and through new modes of collaboration, which will be examined through the analysis of the presented case studies. In developing countries and in cities of the developed world, non-governmental organizations, regional governments or other development-based associations draw from and modify existing modes of governance in order to carry out climate governance experiments. Such experiments take form independently from national and international programs, they cross scales and jurisdictional boundaries and their goal is to contribute to the local community response to climate change. These efforts take inspiration from existing governance patterns and improve them. They offer local actors a possibility to coordinate and harmonize between different types of interventions, preoccupations and available resources without depending on public policies and intervention.

Local adaptation experiments are a way to explore original and innovative practices. Although experimentation has been shown to be a significant contributor to the augmentation of adaptive capacity at various scales, little research has been carried out on the analysis of current practices and what they can teach us about the mainstreaming of this process. This presentation will analyze two local adaptation experiments in Québec, Canada, which seek to adapt to increasing flood risk and the urban heat island effect.

How do such experiments take place? What data, expertise and financial resources are mobilized? What kind of institutional, organizational and economical contexts give way to these experiments? Based on preliminary results, this communication analyses the context and implementation of the two local adaptation experiments: 1) a local flood zone Committee; 2) an urban greening initiative. Content analysis, participant observation, a press review and site analysis, are used to highlight the experiment characteristics and to understand how experimenting contributes to enduring adaptation of local systems.

Vulnerability as Transformation: Photovoice Adaptation in the Philippines

Y. Cai (University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines)

Abstract details
Vulnerability as Transformation: Photovoice Adaptation in the Philippines

Y. Cai (1)
(1) University of the Philippines, Diliman, Women and Development Studies, Quezon City, Philippines

Abstract content

In this participatory action research (PAR), the author rethinks the role of vulnerability in the framework of transformative adaptation through the application of Photovoice in three disadvantaged urban communities in the Philippines. Few planning scholars and practitioners have developed systematic adaptation models and tools to address climate-related risks and vulnerability from the local perspective.  This research explores disaster risks and capacities for adaptation through the lens of a marginalized population and emphasizes vulnerability as the transformational factor for innovative adaptation. The Philippines has faced frequent and devastating typhoons and raging floods, especially in the past few years, which have killed thousands and destroyed millions of homes and businesses. Climate risks as well as adaptive capacities of vulnerable populations, such as women, have been overlooked or even distorted. During a one-year period, this research  project provides disadvantaged community members with digital cameras (through smart phones) and fundamental training, facilitates them to cultivate narratives and social media networks, and encourages communities to develop action mechanisms for disaster preparedness, mitigation, and recovery. Through an empowering Photovoice approach, it reveals climate risks and capacity building of a disadvantaged population in metropolitan Manila and Cebu City. Disadvantaged participants facing frequent climate hazards embody resilience via flexible and entrepreneurial strategies. It demonstrates the missing perspective of the current climate adaptation framework: vulnerability can transform creative and collaborative adaptability.

Climate Change Research and Communication: Exploring potential connections

D. L. Taina (State University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil)

Abstract details
Climate Change Research and Communication: Exploring potential connections

DL. Taina (1)
(1) State University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil

Abstract content

In face of the delicate moment in which we live through the effects of climatic alterations and the intensification of extreme phenomena, the circulation of information about climatic changes is becoming increasingly important. How can we think about the communication of climatic changes as a potent and effective movement to provoke broader reflections on the subject? In our research group at the State University of Campinas, in Brazil, we participate in the scientific research of climate change, as well as study communication proper, combining to create an important field for reflection and the assembly of knowledge in connection with different areas, such as natural sciences, political science, sociology, philosophy, arts and multimedia. Confronting the complexity that is involved in the subject of climate change, we look to construct interdisciplinary researches and creations, in which we focusing important questions and concepts that cross climate change approaches.

Every day we are drowned by the excess of information and news of climatic catastrophes, scenes that show places devastated by natural disasters, such as dried up rivers, water shortages in cities and the melting of polar ice caps. These images and information create narratives and stories about the potential end of the world. And often, these stories possess sterilizing effects by creating the sensation that nothing can be done because the scale of the problem has already become so big to the point that we don’t know what actions to take and therefore become paralyzed. In this context we look to think critically about the quality of the information that is being produced about climate change, seeking to think of communications that create other possible narratives and stories to stimulate other types of thinking related to the environment, to the climate and life. We believe as the author Donna Haraway suggested, with her challenge to live “with the problem” of climate change and create “other possibilities” in the face of these sterilizing stories. We shouldn’t think that there’s no way out, but rather we should create multiple ways out, developing other trains of thought and new collective actions to deal with the climate changes already in motion.

It’s with this intuition that in our research we seek to create other means, together with communication, telling new stories and establishing connections with different ways of knowledge. We believe in the interaction between art, communication and science as a powerful possibility to disseminate new scientific findings in a different approached. In this sense, we developed productions that seek to provoke distinct experiences with climate change communication creations like videos, reports, art installations, and workshops. We are developing a video collective creation workshop named TransClimatic VideoNarratives that we will work aesthetic and videos concepts to create new stories with the public. How do people understand and interact with the climate and nature? How can we establish relationships with water and heat, and how can we establish connections with the climatic elements and feelings that they can generate? Therefore, we aim to study possibilities of generating knowledge from sensory experiences in order to enfold climate change subjects through different approaches, seeking to contribute for the dissemination of knowledge and promote public participations. Our studies integrate the activities of the sub-group Scientific Communication and Climate Change from the Brazilian Network on Global Climate Change Research (Rede CLIMA).

 

Evaluating the Resilience of Traditional and Non-Traditional Family Farming Systems in Mountain Areas of Peru

E. Chavez (National University of San Marcos, Lima, Peru), O. Madalengoitia, (OIKOS, LIMA, Peru), E. Michaud (National University of San Marcos, Lima, Peru), G. Quartieri (IUSR http://www.unisrita.it, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy)

Abstract details
Evaluating the Resilience of Traditional and Non-Traditional Family Farming Systems in Mountain Areas of Peru

E. Chavez (1) ; O. Madalengoitia, (2) ; E. Michaud (1) ; G. Quartieri (3)
(1) National University of San Marcos, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, OIKOS Asociation., Lima, Peru; (2) OIKOS, LIMA, Peru; (3) IUSR http://www.unisrita.it, PHYSICS, SAN PIETRO INFINE (Caserta), Italy

Abstract content

The mountain agricultural systems of Peru  could help to improve the resilience facing the climate change. These systems, mostly of them kept in familiar farming milieu provides ecosystem services (like water basin conservation) and with a low carbon impact, have potential to improve mountain resilience, conserve the biodiversity, and improve the food security. The presentation is focused on comparing the hydro-management, food security and energy consumption of two types of production systems. One based in the use of petrol derivate and "modern" techniques and another based in the recycle of products and with the use of traditional knowledge.

The central Andean region (covering Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia), is one of the world’s centers of origin and domestication of animals and plants. In this region the domestication processes innovated the use of traditional and particular agricultural system by means of techniques, experiences and improvement processes.

These systems are part of our bio-cultural history that has been created by people in thousands of years as a result of the interaction of Andean people and its diverse environments. These systems, mostly of them kept in familiar farming milieu, have an enormous potential to improve mountain resilience, conserve the biodiversity, and improve the food security in these key loci. However there are many drivers (included the climate change and wrong federal management) that jeopardize the continuity of this farming systems.

 

Given that 79.3% of agricultural units in Peru are family farms, this presentation will analyze water management practices amongst traditional family farmers and compare these with the practices of modern settles to analyze whether and how they improve resilience to water scarcity. Likewise, the research will compare strategies for achieving food security and identify potential drivers of food security risk resulting from climate change. Energy consumption between these two groups will also be compared, based on the assumption that traditional farming systems do not e

mploy petroleum derivate products as an agricultural input, instead using traditional knowledge and its techniques, practices and production processes.

 

Our common future, our common Global. Assessing Sustainability of local production systems: A proposal based on socio-ecological resilience and collaboration

R. A. Seiler (Agrometereology, Rio Cuarto, Argentina), M. B. Wehbe (Economic Science, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina), A. Vianco, (Econometrics, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina), A. Mendoza (Econometrics, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina), A. Baronio (Econometrics, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina), A. Tonolli (Agricultural engineering, Mendoza, Argentina)

Abstract details
Our common future, our common Global. Assessing Sustainability of local production systems: A proposal based on socio-ecological resilience and collaboration

RA. Seiler (1) ; MB. Wehbe (2) ; A. Vianco, (3) ; A. Mendoza (3) ; A. Baronio (3) ; A. Tonolli (4)
(1) Agrometereology, Agriculture, Rio Cuarto, Argentina; (2) Economic Science, Economy, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; (3) Econometrics, Economy, Rio Cuarto, Cordoba, Argentina; (4) Agricultural engineering, Engineering, Mendoza, Argentina

Abstract content

Sustainability and resilience are key conditions for reaching a balanced functioning of socio-ecological systems, facing internal conditions and external shocks like those expected from climate change. However, there is no agreement on how to get a good measure for both concepts to allow for managing local production systems. As result of a two-year research a methodology for assessing sustainability was developed based on a collaborative process between science, policy and civil society to improve resilience, and therefore sustainability of local production systems according to  the internal conditionings to the system and the impacts of climate change and other global environmental changes as well.

The presented work is a joint contribution from an interdisciplinary research group from seven universities in the Centre-West of Argentina, and summarizes the analytical and methodological procedure to assess sustainability, based on the concept of resilience of socio-ecological systems. The four dimensions of the sustainability (ecological, economic, social and institutional) and their relationships are organized in a Sustainability Matrix which shows, on the one side, the Aggregated Demands from each dimension to the other dimensions, and on the other, it shows the actual contributions to Human Wellbeing. Within the matrix, a number of components (e.g. water, soil, air, and biodiversity, for the ecological dimension) need to be defined according to pre-established criteria for each of the dimensions. These components, expressed through one or more indicators (e.g. for “water”, indicators of quality, quantity and source would be needed) are to be related to the rest of components in the Matrix aiming at identifying synergies and trade-offs.

The components in the Matrix are not fixed but they depend on the characteristics of the production system or of the region under analysis. The Principal Diagonal of the Matrix tells on the state of the system or the baseline for each dimension through the set of components under the same stated criteria. The rest of the Matrix establishes relationships among dimensions and their components. As a way of exemplification, it is possible to think about the demand of a production system in terms of the availability of particular natural resources to develop the production process. The existence and specificities of natural resources spatially distributed determine not only the characteristics of an ecosystem but also the potential of the production system to develop, as well as the limits to such a development. The same methodology applies for all the relationships among dimensions.

The value of the methodology and its sensitivity rests in an exhaustive knowledge of the productive systems under analysis and of its functioning. As a matter of fact, scientific interdisciplinary groups, citizens, firms, NGOs, and the government, are required to participate in collaboration through bridging organizations to establish proper relationships between dimensions, the components of the systems and the variables/indicators for accurately assessing each of the components.

Finally, the sustainability indicator to be constructed is a relative measure to its potential value and indicates the current position of the system in terms of its desired state. The inter-temporal and regular application of the methodology will determine an accurate evaluation of a system’s dynamic towards sustainability.

Exploring the preconditions for transformative change in the context of climate impacts and adaptation

G. Hovelsrud (University of Nordland, Bodø, Norway)

Abstract details
Exploring the preconditions for transformative change in the context of climate impacts and adaptation

G. Hovelsrud (1)
(1) University of Nordland, Faculty of social sciences, Bodø, Norway

Abstract content

While climate change is projected to substantially influence primary industries in the northern regions climate change is not perceived to be an immediate concern when compared to outmigration, jobs, and the social and economic viability of municipalities (Hovelsrud et al. 2010). This relates to the apparent disconnect between the abundance of scientific knowledge about climate change, the overwhelming evidence that such changes are caused by human action and the general societal response and political commitment to deal with the challenges (Hulme 2009, Jasanoff 2010; Szersznynski and Urry 2010). And mainstream political science and governance theories fail to explain why people and institutions do not act on climate change (O’Riordan & Jordan 1999).

In this presentation we draw on a broad range of adaptation studies; a useful starting point for studying preconditions for transformative processes. One of our findings inspiring this study is that the perceptions of high resilience towards climate risks are expressed in the narrative "vi står han av" - “we always handle hardship”, reflecting deep seated perceptions of resilience, linked to high variability in resources, climate and socio-economic conditions.  This phenomenon has by others been attributed to different understandings and interpretations of reality between groups of people or individuals. If climate change is not perceived sufficiently salient to warrant action, resilience may decrease and societal transformation may not be possible. It is a major challenge that the climate change message and the need for societal change do not resonate well with many parts of society, combined with the findings that adaptation is not likely to take place without stronger policy measures (Dannevig et al. 2013, Tøsse 2012). On the other hand adaptation is taking place and has been associated with extreme events, observations of change, engaged officials and contact with researchers, which is reflected in the finding that society needs to better understand how climate change will affect them directly (Dannevig et al. 2013). How climate change knowledge is co-produced by science and policy we argue will be filtered through current perceptions and values, influencing their potential for transformative responses.  

Perceptions of risks and the need to act on the basis of scientific knowledge hinge on whether scientific knowledge is viewed as salient, credible and legitimate (Cash et al. 2003) and on the individuals’ risk perception, norms, values, culture and livelihood (O’Brien & Wolf, 2010, O’Riordan & Jordan 1999). The presentation will investigate the interplay between the local and national levels in providing salience to the climate change issue. We surmise that perceptions of risk have a bearing on the observed inertia in society to respond to the overwhelming evidence of climate risks. We analyze this inertia by applying the cultural theory of risks (CTR) to our empirical findings.

Cash, D. W., Clark, W. C., Alcock, F., Dickson, N. M., Eckley, N., Guston, D. H. & Mitchell, R. B. 2003. Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100(14), 8086-8091. / Hovelsrud, Grete K., Dannevig, H., West, J., and Amundsen, H. 2010. Adaptation in Fisheries and Municipalities: Three Communities in Northern Norway. In G. K. Hovelsrud & B. Smit (Eds.), Community Adaptation and Vulnerability in Arctic Regions SE . Springer Netherlands. / Hulme, M. 2009. Why We Disagree About Climate Change. Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. / Jasanoff, S. 2010. A New Climate for Society. Theory, Culture & Society, 27(2-3), 233–253. / O’Riordan, T., and Jordan, A. 1999. Institutions, climate change and cultural theory: towards a common analytical framework. Global Environmental Change, 9(2), 81–93. / O'Brien, K.L. and J. Wolf, 2010: A values-based approach to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1(2), 232-242. / Szerszynski, B. and  Urry, J., 2010. Changing Climates: Introduction. Theory, Culture & Society, 27(2-3), pp.1–8. / Tøsse, SE 2012. Uncertainties and insufficiencies: making sense of climate adaptation. Doctoral thesis. Departement of Interdisciplinary Studies of Culture, Faculty of Humanities, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim

From Household Coping to Community Based Adaptation: individual, communal and institutional responses to climate change by low-income households in Khulna, Bangladesh

A. N. Haque (University of Cambridge, Cambridge , United Kingdom)

Abstract details
From Household Coping to Community Based Adaptation: individual, communal and institutional responses to climate change by low-income households in Khulna, Bangladesh

AN. Haque (1)
(1) University of Cambridge, Geography, Cambridge , United Kingdom

Abstract content

The relationship between “coping” and “resilience” increasingly features in academic, policy and practical discussions on adaptation to climate change in urban areas. This study examines this relationship in the context of households in “extreme poverty” in the city of Khulna, Bangladesh. It draws on a quantitative data set based on 550 household interviews in low-income and informal settlements that identified the extent of the underlying drivers of vulnerability in this setting, including very low income, inadequate shelter, poor nutritional status and limited physical assets. A series of focus groups were used to explore the ways in which physical hazards have interacted with this underlying vulnerability, as a means to understand the potential impacts of climate change on this particular group of urban residents. These outcomes include frequent water-logging, the destruction of houses and disruption to the provision of basic services. The main focus of the paper is on describing the practices of low-income urban residents in responding to climate-related shocks and stresses, placing these in a particular political context, and drawing lessons for urban policies in Bangladesh and elsewhere. A wide range of specific adaptation-related activities can be identified, which can be grouped into three main categories – individual, communal and institutional. The study examines the extent to which institutional actions are merely “coping” – or whether they create the conditions in which individuals and households can strengthen their own long-term resilience. Similarly, it examines the extent to which individual and communal responses are merely “coping” – or whether they have the potential to generate broader political change that strengthens the position of marginalized groups in the city.

The vulnerability of individuals, communities and cities to climate variability and change is an outcome of the interaction between an external threat or hazard and the internal characteristics of a system. For residents of low-income and informal settlements in urban areas in the global South, these internal characteristics – which may include limited income, few assets and poor provision of basic services – are particularly important in shaping the consequences of climate-related hazards. Similarly, effectively responding to climate change requires not only addressing the direct outcomes of particular events but also more generally building the resilience of marginalized and vulnerable groups.  This study examines these underlying drivers of vulnerability as they affect extremely low-income residents of the city of Khulna, Bangladesh – and the individual, communal and institutional responses to these. The analysis contributes to an understanding of the dynamics of climate change impacts and responses in rapidly growing urban centres in Bangladesh, and to the relationship between urbanization, poverty and climate risk throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America. More specifically, however, it examines the potential for actions taken at the household and community level in urban areas to go beyond offering short-term “coping” solutions in response to specific events, resulting instead in more transformational changes that address the underlying drivers of vulnerability.

Model Forests and Open Collaborative Science: empowering stakeholders to adopt transformative adaptation practices

J. Lorenzo (CATIE - Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education CEntre, Turrialba, Cartago, France)

Abstract details
Model Forests and Open Collaborative Science: empowering stakeholders to adopt transformative adaptation practices

J. Lorenzo (1)
(1) CATIE - Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education CEntre, Turrialba, Cartago, France

Abstract content

This presentation is related to an ongoing project which is being implemented in two Model Forests of Latin America (in Costa Rica and Colombia). Model Forests are social initiatives which aim at improving governance and the sustainable management of natural resources within forest-rich territories (www.bosquesmodelo.net). Through an Open Collaborative Science (OCS) approach, the project pursues several objectives, including fostering participation and “citizen science” as well as improving adaptive capacity of local communities within the Model Forest territories by opening up the research process related to climate change.

The contribution presented will describe the context of the study and approach being taken within the specific project and how it can potentially help to tie knowledge to local problem-solving by increasing stakeholders participation in different aspects of the research lifecycle, through establishing a more interactive relationship between citizens and the academia. It is based on the belief that research and education need to be adapted to new realities, and has a strong capacity-building and knowledge-sharing component. It is also based on the premise that adaptation should be holistic, taking into account all aspects of life.

This work is part of the recenlty launched Open & Collaborative Science in Development Network (OCSDNet) research project, supported by Canada’s International Development Research Centre and the UK Government’s Department for International Development (www.ocsdnet.org).

Addressing the research evidence needs for evidence-informed city resilience planning: Insights from Shimla city, India

J. Patra (Shimla Municipal Corporation, Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India)

Abstract details
Addressing the research evidence needs for evidence-informed city resilience planning: Insights from Shimla city, India

J. Patra (1)
(1) Shimla Municipal Corporation, Climate Change Resilience, Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract content

Cities, the engines of economic growth and centres of innovation, are at greater risk of climate-induced changes. In a rapidly urbanizing India, key urban functionalities and infrastructure facilities are highly exposed to climate-related hazards and extremes. Two recent natural hazards in India, the Kashmir Floods (September 2014) and the Cyclone Hudhud (October, 2014) have highlighted how urban centers are witnessing a new regime of disaster and climate risk. Urban development is one of the key priorities of India’s government and the new initiative of 100 Smart Cities is a step in that direction. Climate resilient urban development strategies are the core of this initiative. But one of the key challenges that policy makers, city authorities, planners and investors face is with regard to availability to robust, reliable and relevant climate risk information at the city level. Although city level climate risk assessments are being undertaken by many scientific and research organizations, most of these information hasn’t been able to address the needs of city authorities and planners. How do we address these gaps in evidence-informed city resilience planning in a developing country context? Based on a systematic analysis of research evidence needs of city-level stakeholders in the capital city of Shimla in the climate-sensitive Indian Himalayans, including city authorities, this paper highlights a series of barriers, individual and institutional, that result in such gaps. It also underscores some of the emerging opportunities through which the science and research communities could better understand and address the information needs of the policy makers and urban practitioners. More importantly, it demonstrates how such a city-level institutional system could open up new windows of opportunity to mobilise partnerships and resources for city resilience planning and implementation.

Towards an International Sustainability Center Bretagne-Loire An international knowledge arena for global partnership and potential links to “Future Earth”

B. Grambow (Mines Nantes, Université Nantes, CNRS-IN2P3, Nantes, France), E. Lorant (Université Rennes I, Rennes, France), Y. Lagadeuc (Université Rennes I, Rennes, France)

Abstract details
Towards an International Sustainability Center Bretagne-Loire An international knowledge arena for global partnership and potential links to “Future Earth”

B. Grambow (1) ; E. Lorant (2) ; Y. Lagadeuc (2)
(1) Mines Nantes, Université Nantes, CNRS-IN2P3, SUBATECH, Nantes, France; (2) Université Rennes I, Rennes, France

Abstract content

Orienting research and educational programs to tackle society’s major challenges, the new French federal university Bretagne Loire (UBL) is proposing to create the first International Sustainability Center, ISC in France as a highly visible  cornerstone of its transdisciplinary IDEX initiative UBL+, focused on ocean/land/food/health/society.  It is our belief that the proposed approach could very well be related to the “Future Earth” program in co-design & co-production of scientific knowledge on global sustainability.

UBL represents a very large territory of the size of Ireland with 27380 people working in research, 225000 students in higher education, and five laboratories of excellence in transdisciplinary focus areas (Ocean, Immunology, Nuclear Medicine, ICT and Mathematics), hosting 3 OSU and 4 Zones atelier, smart specialization fields in the area of sustainable agriculture, ocean and renewable energy. Acknowledging the limitations of current disciplinary oriented research and education systems to address global environmental change or global sustainability, UBL aims with the Idex proposition to forge a new type of university, establishing a solution oriented knowledge arena, of which ISC is a central part, increasing impact of leading edge research, cross scale system observation, learning, demonstration and exchange, accounting for the interrelationship between world oceans, global environmental change and climate, and environmental (soil, water, air), agricultural, urban, health and societal changes in our costal regions. The goal is to foster participative and international exchange between scientists, students and civil society, providing for scientific excellence in transdisciplinary studies of very complex  global long-term systems, developping new pedagogical methods for transdisciplinary and international culture. Groundbreaking transdisciplinary science includes the need of opening up scientific disciplines to other ones (including numeric and social sciences), to other systems of thinking, and for dialog  with stakeholders for joint problem framing, research definition and a plurality of interests on issues in sustainable development.

Inspired by and in collaboration with the Julie Ann Wrigley Global Institute of Sustainability (GIOS) of Arizona State University, the ICS shall become a Center for international meetings, exchange, research and education, focused on the link between transdisciplinary focus areas (oceans, land-sea interfaces and societies in transition; sustainably constructing food of future…) and the notion of sustainability. At the image of the global challenges to address, and with strong symbolic dimension, the place of the center "without walls" will be the entire regional interconnected territory, to offer an exceptional demonstrator in, for example, the major challenges linked to the land-sea continuum, the transitions to a sustainable urban planet, the question of food sustainability and health, digital transition and culture etc., assuring effective linkage between social challenges, transdisciplinary focus areas and territorial development.

The buildup of the ISC will start from partnerships already in existence and propose new international partnerships (ASU, the University of Colorado, Anglia Ruskin University, and French Guyana, University of California, U Laval etc.)). The “Future Earth” program provides an appropriate frame for fully integrating the global mission in the ISC orientations, with contributions by civil society, including NGO, (“co-production of knowledge”) to the research process (participative investigations) concerning issues that have a major impact on society (e.g. integrated management of a coastal zone or water).

A typical example for the importance of “Future Earth” program is already in discussion between UBL and ASU/GIOS: the question is how to transition to a future that will be driven by the dynamics of urbanization. The InCAS and other mechanisms will be critical for building the international network and developing the critical questions to develop the world’s best program in urban sustainability within Future Earth. Another “demonstration project” could be an observatory (without walls) able to assess long term trends in local and large scale ocean/land distribution pattern of toxic, radiotoxic and nutrition elements and its spatial and temporal variation at local and regional scales including water, soil, plants, trees, animal and human contamination indicators in urban, agricultural, littoral and mining environments, considering biodiversity and food chain sustainability

Processes for self-determined transformative adaptation: The learning journeys of small scale farmers in the arid west of South Africa

B. Koelle (Indigo development and change, Nieuwoudtville, South Africa), N. Oettle (Environmental Monitoring Group, Nieuwoudtville, South Africa)

Abstract details
Processes for self-determined transformative adaptation: The learning journeys of small scale farmers in the arid west of South Africa

B. Koelle (1) ; N. Oettle (2)
(1) Indigo development and change, Nieuwoudtville, South Africa; (2) Environmental Monitoring Group, Rural Programme, Nieuwoudtville, South Africa

Abstract content

A group of small-scale rooibos tea farmers embarked on a transformative adaptation journey more than 15 years ago by defining their community vision. This community is situated in the Northern Cape Province in South Africa and is severly affected by climate variability and change.

Today significant changes can be seen on an individual and communal level. This paper explores the aspects of the learning journey, using the results of qualitative interviews that have been conducted in the course of the past 15 years with various community members. Three key areas are examined: drivers of transformative processes on the personal and communal level, the role of experiential learning in transformative adaptation processes and ways of facilitating transformative adaptation processes. 

At the start of the learning journey the Suid Bokkeveld community was socially and politically disenfranchised and economically margnialised. A participatory process facilitated by two local NGOs supported locally driven action research processes, the establishment and organisational development of a local trading co-operative owned by the farmers themselves. Embedded in these processes were opportunities for personal transformative learning specifically focusing on women within the Suid Bokkeveld community.

The paper explores enabling factors for communal and transformative adaptation in local communities, including sharing knowledge and insights with other communities, stimulating personal development and learning, supporting action research processes to develop adaptation strategies drawing on different types of knowledge (scientific and local knowledge alike). Participatory and experiential learning processes have been a key component and included participatory monitoring of livestock exposure to extreme heat stress, monitoring of water resources on farm level and local level weather monitoring. These processes carefully examined the impact and possible responses to climate extremes in order to plan ahead and be prepared for these possible shocks.

Using the transformative journey of the Suid Bokkeveld as an example, approaches and tools for facilitating transformative learning are discussed. These approaches include facilitation of the articulation of a collective vision for effective adaptation, the communication of climate information on the local level, ownership of learning processes by vulnerable communities and ways of facilitating reflective learning processes for transformative adaptation. 

Cost-benefit analysis of flood resilience strategies to cope with global change impacts. Application to the Barcelona case

M. Velasco (CETaqua, Cornellà de Llobregat, Spain), R. Beniamino (Aqualogy, Barcelona , Spain), A. Cabello (cetaqua, Cornellà, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Cost-benefit analysis of flood resilience strategies to cope with global change impacts. Application to the Barcelona case

M. Velasco (1) ; R. Beniamino (2) ; A. Cabello (3)
(1) CETaqua, Global Change Impact Programme, Cornellà de Llobregat, Spain; (2) Aqualogy, Urban drainage direction, Barcelona , Spain; (3) cetaqua, Sustainability department, Cornellà, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

Urban areas are, due to the concentration of population and economic activities, one of the most sensitive regions to natural hazards. This work presents the results of a flood damage assessment taking into account the effects of drivers such as socio-economic trends and climate changes. This work is part of the FP7 CORFU project (Collaborative Research on Flood Resilience in Urban areas) focusing in the Raval district of Barcelona.

The first stage of this work consisted on creating a detailed flood damage assessment for the case study area. The implementation of a new 1D-2D coupled model was used to obtain flood depths (Russo et al., 2014), and new stage damage curves were developed to estimate the direct tangible damages (Velasco et al., 2015a). The curves were validated using data from surveys and actual reported damages to the Spanish re-assurance. Then, combining the hazard and vulnerability levels by using a GIS-based toolbox, the expected annual damages (EAD) of the area was obtained. This enables the determination of the critical points of the district in terms of flooding impacts, and highlights the need to implement strategies to cope with these impacts.

For a time horizon centered in the year 2050, several future scenarios of climate and socio-economic changes were created. Using the previously developed tools, the EAD values of the several future scenarios were obtained for the Raval District (Velasco et al., 2015b). The comparison between future and current damages presented increase ratios that ranged between 1.5 and 4. This highlighted the need of implementing adaptation strategies to cope with possible future impacts.

Finally, different measures were modelled so the corresponding damages could be calculated. Three different levels of adaptive capacity were studied:

  • Low: measures implemented should be non-structural, and only focusing on vulnerability and risk reduction. In this case, local protection measures (flood board) linked to an early warning system were analysed
  • Medium: it consists of SUDS (Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems), and specifically green roofs
  • High: it considers classical structural measures, which were 6 new pipes upstream the Raval district, and one storage tank in this area

By undertaking a cost-benefit analysis, the effectiveness of the strategies was assessed, and a prioritization of the most adequate ones for each scenario was done.

The non-structural strategies presented higher net benefits than the structural ones, due to their low cost. However, the structural strategies could better cope with flood impacts, but at higher costs. Nevertheless, the economic benefits of these strategies were only related to the Raval District. By extending the domain analysed, the results would be different.

 

References

Russo, B., Suñer, B. and Velasco, M., 2014. Flood hazard assessment in the Raval District of Barcelona using a 1D/2D coupled model. Journal of Hydroinformatics. Accepted.

Velasco, M., Cabello, A. and Russo, B., 2015a. Flood damage assessment in urban areas. Application to the Raval district of Barcelona using synthetic depth damage curves. Urban Water Journal.

Velasco, M., Cabello, A., Russo, B. and Kersting, T., 2015b. Flood damage assessment under future scenarios: the case of Barcelona. Flood risk management journal. Under review.

Climate Change Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis of Indigenous Community in Western Himalaya

B. W. Pandey (University of Delhi, Delhi, India)

Abstract details
Climate Change Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis of Indigenous Community in Western Himalaya

BW. Pandey (1)
(1) University of Delhi, Department of Geography, Delhi, India

Abstract content

Present research is an attempt to investigate the impact of microclimate change on agro horticultural crops, water supply and vulnerability of livelihood security among the local community in Upper Beas Basin of Western Himalaya. Study is based on both the Primary as well as Secondary sources of data. To collect the primary data, twenty two hamlets of the Valley between the elevations of 2000-3000 meters were surveyed on the basis of Stratified Random Sampling (SRS). Two hundred questionnaires were fulfilled along with the physical investigations of quality and quantity water and land use changes between 1954 to 2014.  Attempt has been made to assess the changes in food availability, quality and quantity measurement and analysis of changes in method and mode of food supply. At the end, effort has been made to analyse future vulnerability and changes in the nature of occupations and household economy due to local climate change.

The research findings highlight that the number of livestock has been increased in the valley, while the areas under grazing land has been reduced. This is because of the privatization of the land and closing the forest area. Consequently more pressure has been exerted on agricultural land. The number of households of the nomadic herders has been considerably reduced, as the new generation is migrating towards plain for job in metropolitan areas like Delhi and Mumbai. Agricultural practices have been shifted upwards 400 meter to 1000 meter between 1954-2014. Another finding highlights that there were less than 10 hotels in Manali in 1975, which has increased to more than 1500 in 2014. Land Use Land Cover Changes, Urbanization and vehicular pollutions are the principal factors for local climate change. Growth of Tourism based urbanization has taken place on agrarian land in the Himalayan geosystem is economically lucrative today, but can pose a risk of food crisis tomorrow as non agricultural uses of the land is increasing in the interest of the outside population on the cost of the local farmers.  A planned land use from the government is of dire need to save the livelihood security and vulnerability of food supply to the local community of the Western Himalaya.

Public policies and risk management in extreme hydrological events in Southeast Mexico

F. Tudela (Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad en el Sureste A.C., Villahermosa, Tabasco , Mexico)

Abstract details
Public policies and risk management in extreme hydrological events in Southeast Mexico

F. Tudela (1)
(1) Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad en el Sureste A.C., Climate Change, Villahermosa, Tabasco , Mexico

Abstract content

OUR COMMON FUTURE UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Parallel Session: “Climate conditions for extreme hydrological events in the tropics: past, present, future”.

Contribution by: Fernando Tudela, PhD

Institution: Centro del Cambio Global y la Sustentabilidad en el Sureste

Theme: Extreme hydrological events

Title: Public policies and risk management in extreme hydrological events in Southeast Mexico.

ABSTRACT

 

Extreme hydrological events have already jeopardized development in Southeast Mexico. Their economic impacts have been regularly assessed and exceed by far any other socio-economic aspect. A clear example may be found in the floods that affected the State of Tabasco in October- December 2007, when nearly one million inhabitants –more than half the State´s population- was severely affected, and 80% of Villahermosa, the capital city, was underwater. Attribution issues– natural variability / climate change superimposed effects- remain uncertain, but some statistical data, some of them included in this presentation, point at the increasing relevance of anthropogenic factors. Not only the vulnerability of socio-environmental systems has been aggravated, but the hazards themselves are apparently gathering momentum. Current public policies dealing with risk management are considered now inadequate, and will be even more defective as climate change progresses.

This contribution focuses on these policies, which neglect to a large extent the preventative measures and adaptation approaches. It includes a comparison between the expenditures from FONDEN (Fondo de Desastres Naturales) and those from FOPREDEN (Fondo para la prevención de desastres naturales). Land use planning tools are also questioned in terms of their effectiveness. An in-depth revision of the risk management policies, that should pave the way for new systemic approaches,  will be spurred by an increasing recognition of climate change as a process that brings about a new sense of urgency. 

Early warning systems for climate related extreme events: The development of an ICT based multi-hazard and multi-sector early warning platform in Kenya

E. Vogel (University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia), A. Kooiman (Geo Enviagro Solutions International, Nairobi, Kenya), Z. Zommers (United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Early warning systems for climate related extreme events: The development of an ICT based multi-hazard and multi-sector early warning platform in Kenya

E. Vogel (1) ; A. Kooiman (2) ; Z. Zommers (3)
(1) University of Melbourne, School of earth sciences, Melbourne, Australia; (2) Geo Enviagro Solutions International, Nairobi, Kenya; (3) United Nations Environment Programme, Division of early warning and assessment, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

The Fifth IPCC Assessment Report on climate change shows that the frequency and/or intensity of different types of weather extreme events is likely to increase in a number of regions across the globe. Additional pressures on socio-economic and environmental systems due to population growth, rapid urbanization, conflicts and environmental degradation, particularly in developing countries, are likely to further increase the vulnerability of populations and to exacerbate the risks of severe impacts from climate hazards. Early Warning Systems (EWS) form an important part of national disaster risk management (DRM) strategies and are important to protect communities against the immediate threat and consequences of climate-related extreme events.

 

However, although great efforts have been made to improve EWS worldwide, many of the existing systems have important shortcomings: Often, EWS focus on one hazard type only, ignoring interactions between concurrent hazards. Many fail to provide estimates of climate impacts in a standardized way and taking into account all sectors that are vital to the functioning of societies and relationships between sectors. Furthermore, the communication of warnings is not always adequate, either by not reaching affected populations or by not providing timely and reliable warning. Finally, in many cases early warnings are not sufficiently linked to rapid response measures.

 

The aim of the United Nations Environment Programme’s CLIM-WARN project was to review the current state of multi-hazard Early Warning Systems in three African countries (Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso), to identify capacity gaps, to assess the needs of vulnerable communities, to review best practices for early warning communication and response and to develop a set of recommendations for decision makers to improve existing Early Warning Systems which are applicable beyond the case study countries. An important gap that was identified by stakeholders is the lack of a central platform which integrates hazard warnings from relevant national agencies and provides a visual interface for accessing hazard risk data and which facilitates the communication of warnings to vulnerable groups. These findings resulted in the development of a prototype of a multi-hazard and multi-sector Early Warning Platform in Kenya, building on collaborations with partners and using information and communication technologies (ICT). This talk will present the methodological framework which underpins the development of this prototype platform and will demonstrate the web-based tool which integrates hazard data from different data sources, automatically calculates hazard impacts and disseminates subscription-based warnings and response recommendations to users, based on their data needs and preferred communication channels.

 

The combination of multiple forecasting datasets in one platform has several benefits: It ensures a comprehensive assessment of impacts in all major sectors, taking into account relationships between hazards and sectors; it facilitates the creation of integrated response plans and the exchange of data and knowledge between different stakeholders. Furthermore, it enhances the visibility of risk and hazard data and by this, helps to raise awareness. Remaining gaps and challenges are related to data availability and accuracy as well as to the creation of a national, legislative and institutional framework with clear roles and responsibilities. The development of an Early Warning platform requires strong partnerships with and the support of regional, national and subnational governmental and non-governmental institutions to ensure that the platform will be used by disaster managers in the long term.

Harvesting energy: People's place-based perspective on mitigating climate change with renewable energy technologies on the German North Sea Coast

D. Süsser (Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany), M. Döring, (Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract details
Harvesting energy: People's place-based perspective on mitigating climate change with renewable energy technologies on the German North Sea Coast

D. Süsser (1) ; M. Döring, (2)
(1) Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz zentrum Geesthacht, Human Dimesnions of Coastal Areas, Hamburg, Germany; (2) Institute of Geography, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Abstract content

Discussions on mitigating climate change revolve around the question of how to enable low-carbon energy transition based on renewable energy technologies (RETs) such as wind or solar energy. Communities and individuals have increasingly been recognised in public and policy for making an important contribution to sustainable energy transition. This includes the implementation of RETs in places to which people feel attached to (Devine-Wright, 2011). A discrepancy is still remaining between the general openness to ecological ways of generating energy and the local resistance against the implementation or extension of RETs in the form of NIMBYism (Devine-Wright, 2013a). Considerable research has been undertaken to better understand resistance against RETs while – so far – it has not sufficiently been investigated of how place attachment positively or negatively contributes to individual and collective innovation processes (Rogers, 2003). The paper takes this gap in research as a starting point and presents a socially embedded perspective by drawing on recent research carried-out in the area of place attachment (Manzo and Devine-Wright, 2013) and locally embedded entrepreneurship (Audretsch, 2011; Feldmann, 2010). Our study is based on qualitative interviews undertaken with inhabitants of and a standardised household survey in the coastal municipality Reußenköge (North Frisia; Germany) in 2014 and 2015. It represents a rural area in which grain production and harvesting fields were the main agricultural practices due to historically reclaimed fertile marshland. This situation, however, changed with advent of onshore wind energy at the end of the last century and solar energy and biogas at the beginning of this century. In due course, the coastal municipality of Reußenköge developed from an average agricultural into a so-called model-region for the generation of renewable energy by harvesting wind with wind turbines and sun with solar installations. In brief, Reußenköge represents a recent show-case example for examining the social processes underlying the implementation of RETs in coastal areas. In the course of our qualitative study, analytical emphasis was put on people’s place attachment, their understanding of climate change and how the latter two relate to the adoption of renewable energy technologies on an individual and community level. Questions addressed are the following: How does individual and collective attachment to the place of Reußenköge interact with the adoption and implementation of RETs? How do people understand and relate to the phenomenon of climate change? Has local entrepreneurship in Reußenköge shaped the municipality and in what ways? What are the important characteristics of this local entrepreneurship? In sum, the paper firstly aims at unravelling people’s place-attachment in times of a climate-oriented energy transition in Reußenköge (Devine-Wright, 2013) by analysing the social meanings associated with RETs and, secondly studies socially embedded drivers of change and perceived social adjustments connected to the transition from harvesting fields to harvesting the energy.

Audretsch, D., Flack, O., Feldman, M., Heblich, St. (2011): Local Entrepreneurship in Context. Regional Studies 46 (3), 379–389.

Devine-Wright, P. (2011): Place Attachment and Public Acceptance of Renewable Energy: A Tidal Energy Case Study. Journal of Environmental Psychology 31, 336-343.

Devine-Wright, P. (2013a): Explaining ‘NIMBY’ Objections to a Power Line: The Role of Personal, Place Attachment and Project-related Factors. Environment and Behavior 45, 761-781.

Devine-Wright, P. (2013b): Think Global, Act Local? The Relevance of Place Attachments and Place Identities in a Climate Changed World. Global Environmental Change 23, 61-69.

Feldman, M.P. and Kogler, D.F. (2010): Stylized facts in the geography of innovation. In B.H. Hall and N. Rosenberg (eds) Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, vol 1, Amsterdam: Elsevier, 381-410.

Manzo, L./Devine-Wright, P. (Eds.) (2013): Place Attachment: Advances in Theory, Methods and Applications. London: Routledge.

Rogers, E.M. (2003): Diffusion of Innovations. Fifth Edition. New York: Free Press.

Local government responses to sea level rise in Metro Vancouver

D. Harford (Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada)

Abstract details
Local government responses to sea level rise in Metro Vancouver

D. Harford (1)
(1) Simon Fraser University, Adaptation to Climate Change Team, Public Policy School, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Abstract content

Attention to climate change and sea level rise has intensified in recent years in Metro Vancouver. The region has been identified as one of the top cities in the world with assets at risk from rising seas, and vulnerabilities in the region include municipal property and infrastructure, and agricultural lands, as well as transportation infrastructure that supports the region’s position as a gateway for global trade including railways, roads, port facilities and the international airport. Despite dense settlement and more than a century of industrialization, the region continues to sustain rich aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, but climate change and approaches to adaptation also threaten environmental values. Experts have identified the need for regional collaborative governance to address climate change impacts, across the xx municipalities in the region, and four levels of government (local, provincial, federal and First Nations). There is a clear need for alignment of objectives among neighbouring coastal areas - without this, efforts undertaken in municipal silos could increase the risks.

 

In November 2012, nine local governments and organizations from Metro Vancouver, BC's Lower Mainland already leading in climate change adaptation work took part in a workshop on regional approaches organized by West Coast Environmental Law and ACT. Sea level rise was identified by participants as the most critical issue requiring collaboration, and WCEL/ACT moved to facilitate the formation of the Sea Level Rise Collaborative (SLRC), designed to add capacity to these entities given a common lack of resources and the challenges of data gaps. Seven local governments are now working together to share scientific resources, risk assessment methodologies and implementation approaches. Additional priorities include understanding legal risks and seeding broader regional collaboration, across other levels of government and sectors. A provincial representative has recently joined the collaborative, and the SLRC has a pilot project underway demonstrating green approaches to coastal resilience.

 

Actions to date include a design charrette to develop approaches to the new regional flood construction levels - 4.5 metres - based on the provincial estimate of 1 metre of SLR by 2100—exploring strategies that accommodate sea level rise and increase adaptive capacity over time. These approaches will be more cost-effective than shoreline armouring, will enhance community livability and protect coastal habitat. This and ongoing activities will help catalyze policy changes, new codes and standards, development of understanding of regional collaborative approaches as a key response to climate change impacts, and engagement of the local citizenry and professionals practicing in industry sectors related to this area. 

Why urban poor exposed to climate change in coastal Bangladesh are more concerned about ecosystem disservices than services?

M. M. Saroar (Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh), N. Fatema, (Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Why urban poor exposed to climate change in coastal Bangladesh are more concerned about ecosystem disservices than services?

MM. Saroar (1) ; N. Fatema, (2)
(1) Khulna University, Urban and rural planning discipline, Khulna, Bangladesh; (2) Khulna University, Development studies discipline, Khulna, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Urban poor get numerous benefits from ecosystem services. Roles of urban ecosystem services in the wellbeing of urban poor are extensively discussed, yet little is known about the vulnerability of urban poor to ecosystem disservices. Particularly in the context of climate change some of the ecosystem disservices might seriously affect the urban poor’s wellbeing by impacting their livelihood, security and comfort. Therefore, this research is aimed to answer the question- why some urban poor are more concerned about getting protection from ecosystem disservices than getting benefits of ecosystem services? Accordingly three objectives are framed. First, to identify range of urban ecosystem services and disservices which the urban poor take into account to ensure their wellbeing. Second, to examine whether urban poor really care more about protecting them from ecosystem disservices than taking advantage of services. Finally, to identify the factors that determine urban poor’s differential preference for ecosystem services/disservices.

 

This study was conducted taking coastal Khulna- a metropolis exposed to climatic disasters, as a case. Empirical part of this study was done in a large low-income settlement, named Rupsha slum. Family heads of a total 235 households selected randomly were interviewed through administering a semi structured questionnaire. From a list of 25 ecosystem services and disservices, respondents were first asked to rate in a 5-point Likert scale (very low =1 to very high = 5) if they get benefit from/affected by a particular ecosystem service/disservice. Second, they were asked to rate by using the same scale (a) the importance of those services and (b) their concern against those disservices. By employing Principal Component Analysis (PCA) on their responses to first question, the 25 categories were bought down to four practical utilities/negative utilities. These four categories are related to (a) livelihood, (b) comfort, (c) security and (d) recreation. For the second question, each person’s responses (denoting both importance & concern) were first summed up and later dichotomized taking median as the cut-off point. With this, the respondents were reclassified into two distinct groups: (a) low benefit seekers vs high benefit seekers from ecosystem services, (b) low concerned vs high concerned about ecosystem disservices. Taking each of these two groups as dependent variable, two Ordered Probit models were developed to identify the factors that influence the respondent’s positive preference (expressed earlier as “importance”) and negative preference (expressed earlier as “concern”) towards ecosystem services and disservices respectively. As independent variables, in addition to variables that are identified in Personal Motivation Theory (PMT) (such as intrinsic benefits, extrinsic benefits, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability), various socio-economic, ecological, demographic, behavioural, spatial and governance related aspects were employed in the Probit models.

 

Initial result shows that the urban poor take into account both green and blue ecosystem services for their wellbeing with a varying combination though. Variability is rather less as regards gaining advantage from various green ecosystem services such as green parks, streetscapes, urban forests, playgrounds. However, high variability is observed in regards to their concern over ecosystem disservices, particularly derived from blue ecosystem services such as rivers, canals, urban swamps, natural drainage. Ecosystem disservices which they care most are waterlogging, storm water overflows, surface run off and smell from decomposed waste. Probit models’ results show that importance of ecosystem services to respondent’s wellbeing are significantly determined by age, occupation, education, distance from house, access fees etc. On the contrary respondent’s concern over ecosystem disservices are significantly determined by age, gender, occupation, season of a year, tenure of housing, length of stay, etc. However, other factors have limited influence. The findings would help designing appropriate interventions for (a) enhancing urban poor’s access to ecosystem services, and (b) protecting urban poor from the vulnerability of ecosystem disservices. Therefore, this finding would give synergies to ongoing efforts of building resilient urban community in the context of changing climate.

Integrating science into legal frameworks for sea-level rise planning – an Australian case study

J. Bell (University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia)

Abstract details
Integrating science into legal frameworks for sea-level rise planning – an Australian case study

J. Bell (1)
(1) University of Queensland, TC Beirne School of Law, Brisbane, Australia

Abstract content

One of the anticipated impacts of climate change is sea-level rise, with Australian communities likely to be particularly affected. It is estimated that 85% of Australians live within 50 kilometres of the coast (Department of Climate Change, 2009), making sea-level rise planning a major concern for Australian governments.

 

Despite this high level of risk, the inherent uncertainty surrounding the timing and extent of sea-level rise impacts makes it extremely difficult to garner political and public support for sea-level rise planning. Sea-level rise has been a politically divisive issue in Australia, with policies introduced by governments, and then removed following an election and shift in power to a more conservative administration. Sea-level rise has also caused considerable conflicts between state and local governments.

 

However, despite this challenging political environment, there are some good examples of sea-level rise science being integrated into law in Australia. These examples include large-scale mapping of hazard areas linked to a planning code, planned retreat policies teamed with conditional development approvals, and innovative approaches to seawall planning.

 

This presentation will explore some of the novel approaches to integrating science into legal frameworks for sea-level rise planning, and demonstrate how legal barriers have been overcome.

 

References:

Department of Climate Change, Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts: A first pass national assessment (2009) <http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/coastline/cc-risks-full-report.pdf >.

 

Climate Change, Biodiversity and Human Well-Being in the Coastal Communities around the Eko Atlantic City in Nigeria

A. A. Akinwale (University of Lagos, Akoka, Lagos State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Climate Change, Biodiversity and Human Well-Being in the Coastal Communities around the Eko Atlantic City in Nigeria

AA. Akinwale (1)
(1) University of Lagos, Industrial Relations and Personnel Management, Akoka, Lagos State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Climate Change, Biodiversity and Human Well-Being in the Coastal Communities around the Eko Atlantic City in Nigeria

Akeem Ayofe Akinwale

Department of IRPM, University of Lagos, Nigeria

Email: aakinwale@unilag.edu.ng

With astronomical increase in the rate of urbanisation and deficits in environmental protection in Nigeria, coastal communities are at risk of the consequences of climate change, especially flooding, biodiversity loss, and food scarcity. This situation constitutes dangers to human well-being in the coastal communities in Nigeria. Therefore, this study examines human well-being in the context of climate change and biodiversity in coastal communities around the Eko Atlantic City in Nigeria, focusing on how the dangers of climate change can be mitigated with minimal discomfort to people and organisms in the coastal environment. The study is based on analysis of primary and secondary data in conjunction with the theoretical framework of political economy and underdevelopment. While extant literature and documents on climate change, biodiversity and urbanism in Lagos state of Nigeria constitute the secondary data, primary data were obtained via 20 Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) and 8 Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) conducted in four Local Government Areas (LGAs): Apapa, Eti-Osa, Ibeju-Lekki, and Lagos Island, respectively. The KIIs and FGDs involved youth and community leaders in several coastal communities in the selected LGAs. The discussions essentially dwell on the following issues: (1) the manifestation of climate change in coastal environment in Lagos state of Nigeria; (2) official efforts to mitigate the dangers of climate change in Lagos state; (3) consequences of land reclamation on biodiversity in the coastal environment; (4) public reactions to government’s efforts in the reclamation of lands and construction of Eko Atlantic City; and (5) how human well-being can be improved for achieving the goal of sustainable development in the coastal environment. The findings reveal that climate change constitutes a threat to biodiversity and general socioeconomic development through extreme temperature, coastal erosion, frequent flooding, loss of land, drought, and increased salinity of water, which have become a recurrent environmental problem in Nigeria. To prevent further encroachment by the sea, the Lagos state government has embarked on reclamation of lands and construction of a city project known as Eko Atlantic City through public-private partnership. The project is a 4-square mile extension of Lagos towards the edge of the Atlantic Ocean with a view to mitigate the problem of flooding through a 35-foot tall seawall protective barriers on the one hand, and the problem of growth by using the extension as a site for new apartments, on the other hand. Three out of every five participants describe the Eko Atlantic City project positively in terms of its strategic location and attractions. However, all the participants in the KII and FGDs expressed concerns over the perceived failure by the government to take the well-being of the poor into consideration before and after the reclamation of lands for the construction of the Eko Atlantic City. There is consensus among the participants that only the wealthy persons and big industries have bought the lands reclaimed from the Atlantic Ocean. Two-third of the participants observes that land reclamation has created ecological imbalance and displacement of some people and organisms in the affected areas in Lagos state. The findings suggest that the Eko Atlantic City project is a form of internal colonialism which may be largely detrimental to human well-being in the coastal environment in Lagos state. It is noted that with adequate support from national and international environmental protection agencies the current situation in the coastal environment in Lagos state can be corrected through appropriate policies and enforcement of standard practice. Also, there is need for more attention on urban resilience systems to protect coastal communities in Lagos state from natural and manmade disasters.

Keywords: Biodiversity; Coastal Community; Climate Change; Eko Atlantic City; Human well-being; Nigeria

Determinants of Farm-Level Adaptation Practices to Climate Extremes: A Case Study from Odisha, India

C. S. Bahinipati (Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Ahmedabad, India), L. Venkatachalam, (Madras Institute of Development Studies, Chennai, India)

Abstract details
Determinants of Farm-Level Adaptation Practices to Climate Extremes: A Case Study from Odisha, India

CS. Bahinipati (1) ; L. Venkatachalam, (2)
(1) Gujarat Institute of Development Research, Economica, Ahmedabad, India; (2) Madras Institute of Development Studies, Economics, Chennai, India

Abstract content

A large number of rural households in the state of Odisha, India are dependent on agriculture for their basic livelihoods, which is affected by the frequent occurrence of climate externalities like cyclones and floods. In response, the farm households do also undertake adaptation measures to minimise the economic impact of these externalities. It is, imperative to analyse the current adaptation strategies of the farm households so that future adaptation policies aimed at scaling up adaptation strategies can be designed effectively. Using a survey data of 285 farm households in the cyclone and/or flood prone districts of Odisha, the present study identifies the farm-level adaptation measures as well the determinants of these measures: agricultural extension, access to Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme, received crop loss compensation and informal credit. It is concluded that the government adaptation policies and investment options should take into account these determinants in order to enhance the adaptive capacity of the rural farmers in the cyclone and flood prone regions of the state.    

Social Memory and Social Change in a Portuguese Natura 2000 Coastal Area: Understanding Communities' Adaptation to climate change

E. Seixas (CIS-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal), P. Castro (ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal), M. Carla (CIS-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract details
Social Memory and Social Change in a Portuguese Natura 2000 Coastal Area: Understanding Communities' Adaptation to climate change

E. Seixas (1) ; P. Castro (2) ; M. Carla (1)
(1) CIS-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal; (2) ISCTE-IUL, social psychology, Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract content

Abstract

This presentation analyzes how social memory is linked to social change and climate change (CC) adaptation in a Portuguese Natura 2000 coastal area of fishing importance, by looking at residents’ narratives, paying particular attention to those of fishermen. Narratives are fundamental for linking the past, the present and the future, as well as for constructing meanings and identities. The stories that communities in Natura areas relevant for CC adaptation tell about the past are thus important for legitimizing specific social representations of the changes required for CC adaptation (e.g., representations of the new bio-conservation laws and regulations) while de-legitimising other, alternative, representations, and it is important to understand them and their role.

The study draws on (n=24) in depth qualitative interviews and walking interviews with residents of a Portuguese Natura 2000 Southern coastal area (n=16 interviews with fishermen). The guiding research questions are: How do residents' narratives about the past make sense of current social change and contribute to coastal CC adaptation or make it difficult? How do resident's narratives about the past legitimize specific social representations of bio-conservation laws and of coastal trades and practices, in particular those linked to fishing? What can the particular ways in which residents’ narratives link the past the present and the future tell us about identity and representational processes, and about how these are affected by power differentials?

The preliminary analysis of the interviews suggests that (1) perceptions of a decrease in the main resources (fish and shellfish), (2) technological innovation and (3) the introduction of new legislation restricting fishing activities in the Natural Park have created a series of tensions in identity and representational processes, with consequences for power relations and social cohesion. These tensions evidence several representations of discontinuity with the past, differentiated according to the type of social change evoked: (1) change induced by a decrease in the ‘resource’ (2) change induced by technological innovation and (3) change induced by the introduction of new legislation and other social/economic policies.

In the interviews with the fishermen, the claims that the resource has decreased are linked to claims that in the past theirs was a much simpler trade, since they could always count that there would be more fish available to catch the next day. Conversely, in the present, fishermen claim to have to rely much more on their knowledge and experience, and there is an intensification of individual competition within the trade. They link the decrease in the resource to several factors like pollution, technological advances and, although not often, also excessive fishing. Technological innovation is described in a conflicting way: on the one hand, as advantageous since it contributes to facilitating the practices of fishing. As such, it is linked to a claim that in the past the trades and practices of fishing were more dangerous. On the other hand, it is associated with a decrease in the resource. When talking about the introduction of new Natura 2000 legislation restricting fishing in the site, as well other social and economic policies setting the conditions of the fishermen trade, interviewees often claim that before the laws were introduced it was much simpler to be a fisherman. On the whole, this narrative proposes then that (techno)science reduced the risks of the profession, but now laws are too restrictive of the trade. Also present in the narratives are claims that the use of technological solutions by other social actors with competing practices (such as specific kinds of fishing nets used by large fishing companies or diving equipment used for capture in breeding niches) are contributing to the depletion of certain species and that laws in these cases are necessary for balancing the ecosystem. On the other hand, one finds also a representation of continuity with the past, linked to the idea of an ancient attraction/'addiction' to the sea and stressing the agency of the fishermen in their 'career' and pursuing a highly demanding occupation. This research shows the importance of analyzing the conservation of biodiversity and coastal adaptation by considering the narratives of the affected communities and the way that social memory is linked to social change adaptation. It highlights the multifaceted, dynamic and flexible nature of social memory and the way it is regulated by social psychological processes.

Planning for coastal relocation: analysis of relocation drivers in Hurricane Sandy affected communities

A. Bukvic (Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, United States of America), A. Smith (Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, United States of America), A. Zhang (Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, United States of America)

Abstract details
Planning for coastal relocation: analysis of relocation drivers in Hurricane Sandy affected communities

A. Bukvic (1) ; A. Smith (2) ; A. Zhang (3)
(1) Virginia Tech, Urban Affairs and Planning, Blacksburg, United States of America; (2) Virginia Tech, Psychology, Blacksburg, United States of America; (3) Virginia Tech, Statistics, Blacksburg, United States of America

Abstract content

The future viability of some coastal communities has been severely challenged by the recent major disasters, as well as other episodic and chronic coastal hazards. These events also instigated a dialogue on their long-term resilience, adaptation options, and the possibility of permanent relocation from high risk areas. Little is known how exposure to disaster, in combination with other contemporary coastal challenges, affects willingness to consider relocation on a household level in highly-developed urban settlements. The main objective of this paper is to provide a bottom-up perspective on this dilemma via identification of demographic determinants and other disaster-related concerns that may influence support for relocation among coastal residents. More specifically, this study takes an interdisciplinary approach to examine the effects of pre-disaster socio-economic household characteristics, level of preparedness, disaster exposure, experience with recovery, concerns with other coastal stressors, relocation assistance support needs, community embeddedness, and resource loss on relocation decision-making. The findings hereby reveal that the willingness to consider relocation is primarily influenced by the age of respondents, disaster exposure, level of experienced stress related to recovery, personal financial recovery concerns, future cost of living in high-risk area, concerns with increase in crime and future flooding, and disaster-induced resource loss. Lastly, the findings reveal that age by itself has a buffering/protective effect on stress and relocation consideration, such that older age predicts less stress and reduced interest in relocation, however, conditional on the level of experienced resource loss. Specifically, as resource loss increased, being older no longer protected respondents from disaster-related stress or consideration of relocation. Considering that relocation process is likely to occur in incremental and successive stages rather than all at once, these observations can provide a vital guidance as of which constituents may and under what circumstances decide to relocate sooner or later. This bottom-up perspective on contemporary coastal concerns and stressors that could drive decision to relocate can help inform the development of relocation policy that will more accurately reflect local circumstances and preferences and therefore receive more support for implementation. 

Paleoenvironmental changes of Heuksan Mud Belt (HMB) in the southeastern Yellow Sea, Korea

K. Y. Kwak (Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Republic of Korea), H. G. Cho (Gyeongsang National University, Jinju, Republic of Korea), C. Hunsoo (Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon, Republic of Korea), S.-J. Lee (Korea Environment Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
Paleoenvironmental changes of Heuksan Mud Belt (HMB) in the southeastern Yellow Sea, Korea

KY. Kwak (1) ; HG. Cho (1) ; C. Hunsoo (2) ; SJ. Lee (3)
(1) Gyeongsang National University, Geology, Jinju, Republic of Korea; (2) Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Petroleum and marine research division, Daejeon, Republic of Korea; (3) Korea Environment Institute, Environmental policy reseach group, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

Quaternary paleoenvironmental changes of the Heuksan Mud Belt (HMB), a development stretching south to north along the southwest coast of the Korean Peninsula, are interpreted as having been mostly controlled by rises in sea level after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The present study investigates paleoenvironmental changes in the HMB through clay mineral changes in samples obtained from the Korean Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM) borehole, HMB-103(core depth: 38.55 m), of 2012. Preferred-oriented specimens of 174 samples in 20 cm intervals were prepared and semi-quantitative analyses for 4 important clay minerals were then conducted using X-ray diffraction according to the Biscaye’s method (1965). Clay mineral contents within the clay portion of core deposits were, in descending order: 58.5–70.6% (avg. 64.5%) illite; 8.7–21.7% (avg. 16.0%) chlorite; 10.1–17.3% (avg. 13.2%) kaolinite; and 1.9–16.4% (avg. 6.4%) smectite. The deposits were classified into the following three units, according to the 4 clay mineral content: top-13.5 m (Unit I); 13.5-21.0 m (Unit Ⅱ); 21.0-38.5 m (Unit Ⅲ). Chlorite and smectite contents were lower in Unit I than in Unit Ⅲ, while chlorite content decreased and smectite content increased from bottom to top in Unit Ⅱ. The kaolinite content was similar in Unit Ⅲ and Unit Ⅰ, and showed a decreasing pattern with decreasing depth in Unit Ⅱ. The content of illite was higher in Unit Ⅰ than in Unit Ⅲ, but had the lowest content in Unit Ⅱ, where it showed a pattern of increase with decreasing depth. In general, illite and smectite had a negative correlation, and illite content was higher in the upper part of the drill core than in the bottom part, the smectite content showed the opposite tendency. The classification of units according to the clay mineral content is similar to that of sedimentary stratigraphic unit classification in geophysics exploration data. As a result of carbon age dating, the top part was found to be 2,700 cal yr BP, and the bottom part 50,000 cal yr BP, showing a range of periods dating from before LGM to the current interglacial period. Before LGM, the sea level was low, and sediments with a high smectite and a low illite content flowed in from the south of the research region where the depth of water was relatively deep. After LGM, as the sea level rose and the coastline moved to inland, sediments with lower smectite and higher illite were then supplied from Korean rivers. It is also supported by the form of uppermost Unit I progressing from the east to west. The deposit rate of the core deposits before LGM, which occurred 18 kyr ago was 2.07 m/kyr, for the period 18–11kyr it was 4.9 m/kyr, and following the last glacial 11 kyr ago it was 3.35m/kyr. Such changes represent deposit rate changes according to the rise in sea level. The clay mineral composition change in borehole HMB-103 is considered to be caused by the movement of fine-grained sediments and the associated changes in the circulation pattern of surface currents with the deepening of the water depth due to climate change and a rise in sea level following LGM.

Eco-technological management of atoll island against sea level rise

H. Kayanne (University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan)

Abstract details
Eco-technological management of atoll island against sea level rise

H. Kayanne (1)
(1) University of Tokyo, Department of Earth and Planetary Science, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract content

Atoll island countries comprise low, flat islands consisting of calcareous sand and gravel formed from coral and foraminifera. The islands are maintained both by the physical processes of sand transportation and sedimentation and by the ecological processes of biological production. In the past, the inhabitants maintained their islands wisely in accordance with geo-ecological processes, such as the conservation of coral reef ecosystems, sandy beaches, and coastal vegetation, and cultivated taro using fresh water lenses formed in the island sediments. At present, however, the population concentration on the capital islands has led to inappropriate land use, degradation of coral reef ecosystems, destruction of geo-ecological processes through the construction of landfill sites and sea walls, and reduction in and deterioration of water resources due to the effects of over use and sewage. All these "local" problems have disrupted sand production-transportation-sedimentation process.

The submergence and inundation of atoll islands are regarded as a result of sea levels rise. However, the present problems are not as simple as submergence caused by rising sea levels; indeed, they are induced mainly by local problems. These problems have reduced the resilience of the atoll islands as historically maintained by their inhabitants.

"Global" issues also degrade coral reefs. Bleaching induced by global warming and ocean acidification resulting from increased CO2 also degrades coral reef ecosystems and reduces sand production. The modulation of El Niño, drought, and intensified typhoons induced by global warming threaten water resources in these islands. The problems in atoll countries involve inter-related local and global problems. Plans to adapt to global changes based on a simple scheme may instead reduce the resilience of these islands. To maintain the sustainability of islands against future global change, it is essential to regenerate geo-ecological processes by removing local problems so as to construct highly resilient islands.

To regenerate coral and foraminifera production, ecosystem rehabilitation is necessary. This should be achieved by improvement of coastal environment by sewage treatment and waste management. Rehabilitation would be supported by foraminifera and coral culture and transplantation and their habitat generation, however improvement of coastal environment is a prerequisite. Sand transportation and sedimentation processes should be reopened. An open-cut the causeway will enhance sand delivery from the ocean to the lagoon, nourishing the lagoon coast. Removal of the jetties or their reconstruction with piles and backfilling the dredges would re-open the transportation passage along the coast. Vertical seawall will enhance erosion rather than sedimentation at its foot. Therefore, beach nourishment is proposed as a shorter-term coastal protection and rehabilitation plan that enhances but dose not conflict with the long-term sandy beach rehabilitation.

Yet, the local problems themselves originate from the globalization of the economy and society. In traditional island societies, the inhabitants kept their islands robust, albeit poor economically, by means of local governance indigenous to each island. However, the globalized economy and society, together with the introduced Western political system, have led to the centralization of the population on the main islands and to inappropriate land use.

Without considering the background factors, island management programs will never be acceptable for atoll societies in terms of sustainability unless they consider the appropriate geo-ecological processes. Moreover, geo-ecological processes differ with geological, climatological, and biogeographical variation; island governance differs according to historical and cultural background; and the expression of local problems depends on the local economic and societal background. Therefore, resilience and governance must be constructed in accordance with this geographical variation.

Adapting to impacts of coral reef bleaching on ecosystem services in Asia-Pacific

T. Yeemin (Ramkhamhaeng University, Huamark, Bangkok, Thailand), S. W. (Ramkhamhaeng University, Huamark, Bangkok, Thailand), K. W. (Ramkhamhaeng University, Huamark, Bangkok, Thailand), S. K. (Ramkhamhaeng University, Huamark, Bangkok, Thailand), S. W. (Ramkhamhaeng University, Huamark, Bangkok, Thailand), S. M. (Ramkhamhaeng University, Huamark, Bangkok, Thailand)

Abstract details
Adapting to impacts of coral reef bleaching on ecosystem services in Asia-Pacific

T. Yeemin (1) ; S. W. (1) ; K. W. (1) ; S. K. (1) ; S. W. (1) ; S. M. (1)
(1) Ramkhamhaeng University, Department of Biology, Faculty of Science, Huamark, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract content

    Ecosystem services are the benefits that humans gain from functioning ecosystems. Coral reef ecosystems provide a lot of economic benefits, especially reef tourism, recreational fisheries, fisheries production, shoreline protection and natural products. However, coral reef ecosystem services are threatened by various anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Determining how ecosystem services are associated with biodiversity is required for investigating the consequences of biodiversity loss and for setting objectives and priorities for coral conservation and management. Studies on functional redundancy within coral communities, the number of taxonomically distinct species that show similar ecological functions, are very important for understanding the consequences of biodiversity loss. A case study in the Gulf of Thailand revealed that the low Acropora coverage at the study sites before the 2010 coral bleaching event was still a result of the previous severe coral bleaching in 1998. Densities of juvenile Acropora colonies before the 2010 coral bleaching event were also very low at the study sites, with no recruitment for several years. Several Acropora species that were previously observed in these areas are presently at risk for local extinction or may have already disappeared.

    Quantifying coral reef ecosystem services in the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea has been documented with emphasis on linking coral reef conditions with various types of ecosystem services. Given coral reef management and restoration plans in Thailand as an example, the coral reefs are categorized into four different groups depending on their threats and type of uses. The coral reef that is in a degraded status and is used for tourism is the priority area for coral reef restoration. The coral reef restoration plan concentrates on using passive restoration in 4 strategies and 15 measures, by reducing threats from tourism, water pollution, sedimentation and fisheries. The active coral restoration by numerous asexual and sexual reproduction methods and techniques will be carefully considered prior to applying at appropriate reef sites for tourism, research, education and raising public awareness. The major concerns are simple and cheap restoration methods, community involvement, high tolerant species to bleaching and multi-species transplantation.

    The coral reef management and restoration project in tourist hot spots in the Gulf of Thailand is a good case study for adapting to impacts of coral reef bleaching in Asia-Pacific. The project was initiated and funded by the network of provinces in the eastern Thailand. It aims to survey and establish an ecological and socio-economic database for managing the coral reefs and enhance their resilience to climate change. In addition, artificial substrates for coral recruitment and ecotourism are provided at tourist hotspots with the participation of local communities in managing natural resources and environment, wherein public awareness and education are enhanced. The project shows effective collaboration between scientists, local communities and local government officials as decision-makers to integrate scientific data into policy and adaptation measures. The coral reef restoration sites can be used to support ecotourism and learning opportunities for students. Continuing efforts in capacity building, public awareness and education through disseminating printed materials and conducting training courses, workshops and seminars for stakeholders, youth, students and local government officials can enhance resilience in coastal communities. Strengthening the long-term monitoring, evaluation and reporting of the project can provide lessons for conservation of coral reefs in tourist hotspots influenced by climate change, especially coral bleaching events.

Coastal Mitigation and Adaptation in a Small Island Developing State: Vanuatu a Case Study

S. M. Von Schwerin (Experienced consultant, Dee Why, NSW, Australia)

Abstract details
Coastal Mitigation and Adaptation in a Small Island Developing State: Vanuatu a Case Study

SM. Von Schwerin (1)
(1) Experienced consultant, Specialising South Pacific SIDS; EbA and Eco-DRR, Dee Why, NSW, Australia

Abstract content

Considered one of the poorest and least developed of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the South Pacific, Vanuatu is limited in its ability to reponds to risk associated with climate change. An archipeligo comprising 83 islands located in the western region of the South Pacific between New Caledonia and Fiji, the Climate Risk and Adaptation Country Profile (CRACP Vanuatu 2011) descibes Vanuatu as being "hampered by its highly vulnerable socio-economic and ecological standing".  The key challenges that limits Vanuatu's ability to respond to climate variabiability and change include: political instability and weak institutions; unequal distribution of economic benefits gained from existing policies; disparity in income distribution and access to basic services; and, increased urban migration to urban centers with limited employment opportunities(CRACP).

As a natural resource/environmental planning expert with over 30 years experinece, living and working in Vanuatu, I present pragmatic solutions based upon my indepth knowledge and understanding of mitigation and adaptation climate change related issues facing the Ni Vanuatu islanders. The case study addresses adaptation and mitigation measures, including a review of the before and after of the recent Category 5 cyclone that hit the island chain in March, 2015.  

Appropriately for a number of the South Pacific Small Island Developing States this presentation focuses on a grassroots perspective oriented towards natural and science based solutions: ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) + ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR).  

The innovative component of the oral presentation is not limited to purely scientific analysis of mitigation and adaptation options associated with climate change.   It will also bring  to the Conference the voices and concerns of local Ni Vanuatu and IKiribati from Vanuatu regarding their  current socio-economic vunerabilities and concerns, economic drivers in conjunction with current, cutural and historic understanding of climate change risk. A key component of the presentation will be to address local and regional responses, discussing pathways for integration across sectors and stakeholders.

 

The scientific and techolonogical breakthroughs releveant to this paper include ,but are not limited to:  computer modelling; development of renewable energy limiting CO₂ emissions and reducing dependency on coal power stations: drill systems for geothermal energy; solar and wind power generation and storage; biological treatment of waste water; protection of freshwater lens and water resource; sustainable agricultural production; early warning systems; and the role of natural ecosystems in increasing coastal community resilience and hazard reduction from projected climate change events.

 

The trade-offs, co-benefits, risks and feedbacks are discussed along with the primary barriers which include:

  1. the dispersed nature of the archipeligo and mountainous terrain making administration, communication and operation costly and challenging 
  2. limited domestic market with little potential for economies of scale
  3. increasingly competitive international markets for tourism and investment
  4. a social and cultural system with limited understanding  and experience with business concepts and practices

My presentation concludes with a local area case study that examines the integration of EbA and Eco-DRR as a tool for climate change adaptation promoting socio-economic and ecological resilience.   The case study Lapita project, which has been running almost 15 years, provides innovativeadaptation and mitigation solutions for climate change from the botton up perspective.  These solutions may be readily adopted at the regional basis  throughout  Vanuatu and the South Pacific. 

BIBLIOGRAPHY:  to be included in full paper.

Unpacking the Co-production of Knowledge in Adaptation to Climate Change: The Role of Local Knowledge in a Coastal City – Tainan, Taiwan

H. C. Lee (National Central University, Chung Li, Taiwan), R. Chen (Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan)

Abstract details
Unpacking the Co-production of Knowledge in Adaptation to Climate Change: The Role of Local Knowledge in a Coastal City – Tainan, Taiwan

HC. Lee (1) ; R. Chen (2)
(1) National Central University, Chung Li, Taiwan Province (People's Republic of China); (2) Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan Province (People's Republic of China)

Abstract content

As most of climate change research initiatives are more focused on natural sciences, it is almost impossible to understand the earth system without addressing humans as influencing the planet and as an essential driving force in shaping the future of Planet Earth. Thus, a major new step has taken to the development of science – from disciplinary to interdisciplinary, from one sector to cross-sectoral, and from natural sciences to social sciences and the humanities.

 

Based on the research results from a 3-year (2013-15) core research program - Taiwan Climate Change Adaptation Technology (TaiCCAT), this paper takes an interdisciplinary approach by examining the role of local knowledge to plan, manage and communicate local adaptation strategies in Tainan, Taiwan. Selected by Lonely Planet and Michelin as a must-see three-star tourist destination, Tainan, at the same time, has been at risks of rain storms and mud slides at mountain regions, urban flooding and coastal sea-level rise. Policy responses like building dikes or not, opening or closing water gates, water distribution among industrial, agricultural and residential sectors are frequently made by relevant government authorities with inputs from community groups.

 

To ensure government, business, society and academia have the foresight, knowledge and tools to adaption to climate change, this paper further conducts in-depth interviews with stakeholders from mountain, rural, urban and coastal regions for cross-checking its research findings. Tainan experience so far points to the importance of early engagement, trust-building, involvement of all stakeholders and assessment of knowledge needs and knowledge exchange. Hopefully in the future, it may become a robust example for co-design, co-production and co-delivery of knowledge also consistent with and called for by Future Earth research initiative.

Coping with climate change impacts: The case of coastal fishing communities in Patuakhali region, Bangladesh

A. R. Sunny (Sylhet Agricultural University, Sylhet, Bangladesh), M. M. Islam (Sylhet Agricultural University, Sylhet, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Coping with climate change impacts: The case of coastal fishing communities in Patuakhali region, Bangladesh

AR. Sunny (1) ; MM. Islam (2)
(1) Sylhet Agricultural University, Department of Coastal and Marine Science, Sylhet, Bangladesh; (2) Sylhet Agricultural University, Department of Coastal and Marine Fisheries, Sylhet, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Globally, Bangladesh is considered as one of the most vulnerable countries to the anticipated impacts of climate change. Following that situation, scientific community often uses Bangladesh as a test case of studying climate change impacts and respective adaptation strategies in different professional groups. However, very few studies focused on the coastal fishing people, though they are one of the most vulnerable professional groups to climate change impacts. Based on a fieldwork in four fishing communities in Patuakhali region of Bangladesh, this study identifies livelihoods strategies that fishers adopt to cope with the impacts of climate changes that impinge on them and possible ways to enhance their capacity to make climate resilient fishing communities in Bangladesh. To collect empirical data, household survey was conducted and a number of qualitative tools such as interviews, focus group discussions, and oral history were employed. Coastal fishers in the study areas suffer from a number of climate changes related events such as cyclones, tidal surges, and saline water intrusion. Combination with high frequency of natural disasters, weak economy and acute poverty make fishing people very vulnerable to any shocks. In response to multi-faceted vulnerabilities, fishers adopt a number of strategies in considering long-term sustainability of their livelihoods. Immediate aftermath of the any disaster, fishers are found to survive depending on personal savings, relief from government and NGOs, taking loan from NGO and mohajon (money lender) or by doing extra labor to increase income and savings. Improvement of physical capital such as brick-built housing structure is a common strategy found among better off fishers. Fishers are also found to plant trees around their house to get protection. In response to increased salinization of ground water, fishers harvest rainwater. In case of long-term adaptation, fishers put utmost importance to secured future of next generation and want to educate their children so that they can be able to leave risky professions and vulnerable place. The government support is not enough to increase the adaptive capacity of the people due to insufficient structural protection, poor management, rise of corruption. A number of suggestions elicited from fishers’ perception for effective tackling of climate change related vulnerabilities that includes  construction of more cyclone centre having effective infrastructure and  communication system, construction and repairing of embankment, mangrove afforestation to protect embankment, public private partnership for climate protection such for coastal afforestation, starting of rationing of food support, mobile banking system for cash support, training to improve skills for alternative employment opportunities to reduce pressure from fishing, disaster management training, checking  corruption by introducing  risk allowance for law enforcing personnel and other governmental officials during disasters rehabilitation, recruitment of  trained graduates having deep knowledge on coastal resource and disaster management, providing sufficient buoys in boat, helicopter rescue system from fishing place, wireless network or specialized software response system for early warning of disasters.

 

Perspectives of planners on adaptation to climate change in Indonesia

R. Yoseph-Paulus (Local government of Buton Regency, Baubau, Indonesia)

Abstract details
Perspectives of planners on adaptation to climate change in Indonesia

R. Yoseph-Paulus (1)
(1) Local government of Buton Regency, Regional Development Planning Agency (Bappeda), Baubau, Indonesia

Abstract content

This paper focuses on understanding what knowledge local planners at city, regional, and provincial levels have regarding climate change adaptation (CCA), and what informs their perceptions and understanding. Four main themes were investigated: their perception of climate change impacts on local communities; the level of CCA policy development; the extent of CCA mainstreaming in the development agendas of local governments; and the level of planning for CCA. The findings were derived from the perspectives and insights of 26 local planners, working for local governments from seven different Indonesian coastal cities. Several significant factors that need to be addressed in order to plan for and implement effective CCA and disaster management at local levels in Indonesia were identified. These included increased climate change awareness at local levels; the level of coordinated efforts of government and non-governmental organisations required to enable CCA; increased capacity development to enhance community resilience; access to financial incentives and programmes; and greater motivation to address climate change impacts to enable CCA development. 

Climate variability and change in fisher communities of Benin coastal zone: Vulnerability and adaptation strategies

F. Thoto (Centre d'Actions pour l'Environnement et le Développement Durable (ACED), Cotonou, Benin), D. Houessou (Centre d'Actions pour l'Environnement et le Développement Durable (ACED), Cotonou, Benin), A. Aoudji (Université d'Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Abomey-Calavi, Benin), S. Weissenberger (Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Montréal, Canada)

Abstract details
Climate variability and change in fisher communities of Benin coastal zone: Vulnerability and adaptation strategies

F. Thoto (1) ; D. Houessou (1) ; A. Aoudji (2) ; S. Weissenberger (3)
(1) Centre d'Actions pour l'Environnement et le Développement Durable (ACED), Cotonou, Benin; (2) Université d'Abomey-Calavi (UAC), Faculté des sciences agronomiques (fsa), Abomey-Calavi, Benin; (3) Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM), Institut des sciences de l'environnement (ise), Montréal, Canada

Abstract content

Climate variability and change are major challenges for communities in coastal regions. The coastal area of Benin in sub-Saharan Africa is also experiencing the negative effects of climate in terms of sea-level rise, rapid coastal erosion and significant variations in rainfall and temperature. Fishing remains the main livelihoods mean in these coastal areas, and is directly affected by the negative effects of climate variability and change. Fishing communities of Grand Popo and Ouidah in South-western Benin are the most affected by these effects and are more vulnerable. This study used an integrated approach that combines both biophysical and socio-economic factors determining vulnerability within a community or household. Indicators were used to develop an index of vulnerability to climate variability and change in order to compare and explain the levels of vulnerability of fishing communities. This research is part of a regional project funded by the Canadian International Development Research Center which is implemented in Benin, Senegal and Canada. The findings of the study showed, for fishing, that the municipality of Grand-Popo is more vulnerable to climate variability and change than Ouidah in terms of the level of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. A community with low adaptive capacity does not directly reflect a high vulnerability. It is the combination of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity that determines vulnerability. However, fishing households experiencing high exposure, therefore experience more climate shocks, have a high probability of being the most vulnerable, this is the case for the municipality of Grand-Popo. Similarly, households with high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity have a greater vulnerability. On a practical view, the findings of this research showed the importance of supporting fishing communities in diversifying their livelihoods in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate variability and change.

Failure of Resilience & Adaptation in Agricultural Practice and Alteration of Socio-Ecological Structure Due to Ocean Acidification in 3 States of India

B. Ghosh (Asian Marine Conservation Association (AMCA), Kolkata, West Bengal, India)

Abstract details
Failure of Resilience & Adaptation in Agricultural Practice and Alteration of Socio-Ecological Structure Due to Ocean Acidification in 3 States of India

B. Ghosh (1)
(1) Asian Marine Conservation Association, Coastal Agriculture, Kolkata, West Bengal, India

Abstract content

‘Climate change’ is the major point of discussion of any political & decision- making agenda of any nation in general, and intergovernmental meetings and summits in particular. World community now understand that because of world’s development sustainability depends upon its all the ‘key-factors’ that significantly play into various thrust areas  like growth in agriculture, education and industry, and their respective drivers.

 

The problem of changing climate that reflected into adversities primarily into agriculture, education and industry has already been satisfactorily be identified by many researchers from academia, but not having the direct solution available, as of now, the policy makers have therefore to depend on some approach--  more of theoretical, than ‘straightforward practical’. In this premises, the concepts like ‘resilience’, ‘vulnerability’ and ‘adaptation’ have come into play.

 

This paper  shows that how resilience and adaptation fails in agricultural practices in and nearby coastal areas of 3 States (West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and DIU-U.T.) of India, due to lowering of pH (Ocean Acidification) in nearby estuarine and coastal water increasing  the ‘vulnerability’ in the socio-ecological structure that also have altered the pattern of local economic activities like ‘tourism’ and  ‘fish drying industries’.

Bio-Diversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing in changing landscapes: Future challenges

A. Venkata Nagavarma (P.G.Courses & Research Center, D.N.R.(Autonomous)College(Andhra University - Estd. 1945), BHIMAVARAM, Andhra Pradesh, India)

Abstract details
Bio-Diversity, ecosystem functioning, and human wellbeing in changing landscapes: Future challenges

A. Venkata Nagavarma (1)
(1) P.G.Courses & Research Center, D.N.R.(Autonomous)College(Andhra University - Estd. 1945), ECONOMICS, BHIMAVARAM, Andhra Pradesh, India

Abstract content

Climate change affects the living world, including people, through changes in ecosystems, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. Ecosystems entail all the living things in a particular area as well as the non-living things with which they interact, such as air, soil, water, and sunlight. Biodiversity refers to the variety of life, including the number of species, life forms, genetic types, and habitats and biomes (which are characteristic groupings of plant and animal species found in a particular climate). Biodiversity and ecosystems produce a rich array of benefits that people depend on, including fisheries, drinking water, fertile soils for growing crops, climate regulation, inspiration, and aesthetic and cultural values. These benefits are called “ecosystem services” – some of which, like food, are more easily quantified than others, such as climate regulation or cultural values. Changes in many such services are often not obvious to those who depend on them.

The future of humanity depends on whether or not we have a vision to guide our transition toward sustainability, on scales ranging from local landscapes to the planet as a whole. Sustainability science is at the core of this vision, and landscapes and regions represent a pivotal scale domain.Themain objectives of this paper are: (1) to elucidate key definitions and concepts of sustainability, including the Brundtland definition, the triple bottom line, weak and strong sustainability, resilience, human well-being, and ecosystem services; (2) to examine key definitions and concepts of landscape sustainability, including those derived from general concepts and those developed for specific landscapes; and  (3) to propose a framework for developing a science of landscape sustainability. Landscape sustainability is defined as the capacity of a landscape to consistently provide long-term, landscape-specific ecosystem services essential for maintaining and improving human well-being. Fundamentally, well-being is a journey, not a destination. Landscape sustainability science is a place-based, use-inspired science of understanding and improving the dynamic relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being in changing landscapes under uncertainties arising from internal feedbacks and external disturbances. While landscape sustainability science emphasizes place-based research on landscape and regional scales, significant between landscape interactions and hierarchical linkages to both finer and broader scales (and externalities) must not be ignored. To

advance landscape sustainability science, spatially explicit methods are essential, especially experimental approaches that take advantage of designed landscapes and multi-scaled simulation models that couple the dynamics of landscape services (ecosystem services provided by multiple landscape elements in combination as emergent properties) and human well-being.

Keywords: Sustainability _ Landscape sustainability science _ Landscape sustainability spectrum _Ecosystem services _ Human well-being _ Key research questions and approaches

Building Resilience at Sub National level Using Climate Resilience Framework

S. K. Yadav (Institute for Social and Environment Transition-Nepal (ISET-N), Kathmandu, Nepal), A. Dixit, (Institute for Social and Environment Transition-Nepal (ISET-N), Kathmandu, Nepal)

Abstract details
Building Resilience at Sub National level Using Climate Resilience Framework

SK. Yadav (1) ; A. Dixit, (1)
(1) Institute for Social and Environment Transition-Nepal (ISET-N), Research, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract content

Nepal’s ecosystems generate various goods and services for its people. Climate change with its direct consequences on the hydrological cycle can impact ecosystems, lives and livelihoods seriously and adversely. These changes will lower the resilience of ecological and infrastructural systems as well as the functioning of water, food and livelihoods services. Ecosystem based adaptation as an element of an overall strategy can help educe the vulnerability of ecosystems and build people’s resilience in the face of the adverse impacts of climate change.  This paper will present the use of climate change vulnerability in wake of changing climate taking into account the role of ecosystem services using the climate Resilience Framework (CRF). The CRF conceives climate vulnerability to be highest when increased exposure intersects with fragile systems, social marginalization and constraining institutions. Drawing on findings of research conducted in Nepal’s Western Development Region the paper will discuss the use of both top down and bottom up approach to assess risks and develop strategies for building resilience at sub national levels. 

Climate Change impact of loss Agro-biodiversity in Georgia

K. Nadiradze (Association for Farmers Rights Defense, AFRD, Tbilisi , Georgia), M. Goginashvili (Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi , Georgia)

Abstract details
Climate Change impact of loss Agro-biodiversity in Georgia

K. Nadiradze (1) ; M. Goginashvili (2)
(1) Association for Farmers Rights Defense, AFRD, President, Tbilisi , Georgia; (2) Tbilisi State University, Economic and business faculty, Tbilisi , Georgia

Abstract content

Climate change is occurring more rapidly than anticipated and the increase in extreme weather events threatens more disruptive effects to agriculture. Existing technologies and current institutional structures seem inadequate to achieve the mitigation needed to adequately slow climate change effects, while also meeting needed food security, food safety livelihood and sustainability goals in Developing Countries especially like Georgia. Identifying actions that are science-based, utilize knowledge systems and technology transfer in new ways, and provide resilience for food systems and ecosystem services in agricultural landscapes despite the future uncertainty of climate change and extreme events. Recognizing the urgency, Association for Farmers Rights Defense, AFRD organzing the Training Programs for its member farmers on this important topics: Climate Smart Agriculture, Mitigation and Adaptation, Conservation of Agrobiodiversity and creation of in-situ, ex-situ, in-farm and on-farm collection of seeds and species of must threatened Agro bio-diverse endemic plants in Georgia. We also know that the most diverse ecosystems will be the most resilient and adaptable in the face of changing climates. Every species has a role to play in a functioning ecosystem, and conserving ecosystems is therefore an important way of conserving species. However, in order to ensure effective conservation, climate change management strategy of our NGO will require reliable scientific data both on the nature of climate change and on its potential impact on plants and plant communities.

Climate change adaptation for the Amazon basin: how can ecosystem-based solutions be multiplied?

P. Ceotto (Conservation International, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil), T. Kasecker, (Conservation International, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), R. Pinheiro, (Conservation International, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil), J. M. C. Da Silva (Universidade Federal do Amapá, Macapá, Brazil), F. R. Scarano, (Conservation International and Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Abstract details
Climate change adaptation for the Amazon basin: how can ecosystem-based solutions be multiplied?

P. Ceotto (1) ; T. Kasecker, (2) ; R. Pinheiro, (1) ; JMC. Da Silva (3) ; FR. Scarano, (4)
(1) Conservation International, Americas Sustainability Center, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; (2) Conservation International, Brazil field program, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (3) Universidade Federal do Amapá, Pós-graduação em biodiversidade tropical, Macapá, Brazil; (4) Conservation International and Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Americas sustainability center and departamento de ecologia, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract content

Land use change has meant to date a reduction of nearly 20% of the natural cover of the Panamazonian region, which comprises eight Amazonian countries and one overseas territory. There are projections suggesting that if the current pace of deforestation is not halted soon, climatic conditions will become drier and the system may turn into an opener and drier one, where fire risks are higher and precipitation and humidity lower. This ´savannization´ would potentially have large-scale impacts on climate, biodiversity and livelihoods locally, as well as globally.

The latest IPCC assessment report pointed out a set of sub-national and national initiatives of climate change adaptation in the Amazon that are based on ecosystems. Ecosystem–based adaptation (EbA) refers to practices that reduce human vulnerabilities by harnessing the capacity of nature to buffer human communities against the adverse impacts of climate change. The Amazon region simultaneously holds the largest continuous green tropical cover of the planet and a population of more than 30 million habitants, many of which live in poverty. The poorest are the most vulnerable people to climate change. Then, these characteristics turn the Amazon into a key geography to implement and learn from practices related to ecosystem-based adaptation and sustainable development. Protected area networks, indigenous territories, community management, conservation incentives and forest restoration are all practices that can be considered EbA as long as they reduce societies´ vulnerability to climate change by protecting natural resources and improving livelihoods.

In this paper we review some of the existing national and sub-national policies and practices taking place in the Amazon that can be classified as EbA. Mapped cases include from national-level policies (such as those related to low carbon development or conservation agreements) to local level initiatives (such as sustainability policies at municipal level or community management of areas under protection). We analyzed the selected cases on the basis of the following criteria: resilience potential, risk reduction, cost-effectiveness, emissions reduction, replicability, and scalability. We emphasize the need to showcase, measure and share success stories to favor dissemination of solutions across the region. Main conclusions are that 1) protected areas networks and indigenous lands that add up to more than 45% of the total cover the Amazon need further consolidation; 2) national and sub-national conservation incentive mechanisms need further assessment but have a high potential for replication across the region; 3) efforts aiming for sustainability at sub-national level must be measured and understood for potential replication or even to inspire the design of new policies; 4) adaptation to climate change in Amazonia will be predominantly ecosystem-based, but planning requires regional level integration and exchange of policies and practices between national and sub-national actors.  

Current status and potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of consumed plants species by the endangered western derby eland (Taurotragus derbianus derbianus) in its last wild refuge Niokolo Koba National Park, South-Eastern Senegal

M. Camara (GRP Climate Change and Biodiversity, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), S. Da Sié (Competence Center of the West African Science Service Center Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), F. N. Kouame (GRP Climate Change and Biodiversity, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), S. Bienvenu (Institut des Sciences de l'Environnement, Dakar, Senegal)

Abstract details
Current status and potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of consumed plants species by the endangered western derby eland (Taurotragus derbianus derbianus) in its last wild refuge Niokolo Koba National Park, South-Eastern Senegal

M. Camara (1) ; S. Da Sié (2) ; FN. Kouame (1) ; S. Bienvenu (3)
(1) GRP Climate Change and Biodiversity, University félix houphouët-boigny, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Competence Center of the West African Science Service Center Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Biodiversity modelling, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) Institut des Sciences de l'Environnement, (ise/fst) university cheikh anta diop of dakar, Dakar, Senegal

Abstract content

Within the last decades, biodiversity became an important topic of social, political and scientific discussion because of its essential role in human well-being and survival. However, biodiversity is facing increasing threats, leading to its loss, caused by different factors among which climate change. It is urgent to take action to ensure its sustainable use and conservation. The Western Derby Eland (Taurotragus derbianus derbianus Gray, 1847), the biggest antelope worldwide is recorded as endangered species even close to extinction. Endemic to West Africa its wild habitat is shrunk nowadays to Niokolo Koba National Park (NKNP) Southeast Senegal with Soudano-Guinean climate, where an exponential decrease of its population is noticed. Conservationists in hope of preserving its genetic pools established the first breeding herd worldwide to an ex-situ conservation site, the Bandia reserve Centre West with a Sahelo-Soudanian climate. Researches have been carried out on derby eland in wild but they had a narrow-scope, mainly oriented on aerial and ground survey in the national park. Until today, very few is known on the wild eland in its last natural refuge. Previous studies have defined Boscia angustifolia, Grewia bicolor, Hymenocardia acida, Strychnos spinosa and Ziziphus mauritiana as consumed woody species by eland. A step to maintain and allow the population increase of Eland within the NKNP is to assure the presence of these woody species in the area. Therefore, knowledge on their current and future distribution within the NKNP is important for the perpetuity of the eland in its last wild refuge. The aims of this present work are to (i) identify the current potential distribution of eland’s consumed plant species with climatic and land-cover variables as predictors and (ii) predict the future distribution of these species based on different climate models and scenarios for decision makers and rangeland managers. To achieve these aims two types of dataset are necessary: species occurrence and environmental data. Occurrence points of each woody species were obtained from field observations and additional records from herbaria of natural collection downloaded from GBIF website (Global Biodiversity Information Facility). Environmental variables were downloaded from Worldclim database for climate data and from the Global Landcover database for land cover variables. Possible impacts of climate change on the distribution of Eland consumed plant species in the Park were analyzed based on three climate models (CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-LR) and two climate scenarios (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5), at two periods of time (2050 and 2070). Current and future potential distributions of suitable habitats for the woody species were determined at a spatial resolution of 30 arc-second using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach.

Preliminary results of the ongoing analysis show a good potential distribution of consumed plant species by eland in the NKNP in general. Three out (Grewia bicolor, Hymenocardia acida, and Ziziphus mauritiana) of the five woody species are found almost everywhere within the park. In contrary, Strychnos spinosa has is range restricted to the central part while Boscia angustifolia is confined in the eastern part. Projections illustrate a negative impact of climate change on the consumed plants by the eland, with a severe loss of suitable habitats for most of the species, except from Hymenocardia acida and Ziziphus mauritiana which will likely remain within the NKNP.

The loss of suitable habitats for the consumed species by eland will have negative impacts on his maintenance in the park. We therefore recommend the development of strategies for a good conservation of these remaining plant species by reducing for example human actions. 

Traditional Knowledge in the Use and Management of Forest Ecosystem for Livelihoods and Food Security in Nigerian Savanna

F. Olorunfemi (Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), M. Fasona (University of Lagos, Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), G. Oloukoi (Lead City University, Ibadan, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), P. Elias (University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), V. Adedayo (University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Traditional Knowledge in the Use and Management of Forest Ecosystem for Livelihoods and Food Security in Nigerian Savanna

F. Olorunfemi (1) ; M. Fasona (2) ; G. Oloukoi (3) ; P. Elias (4) ; V. Adedayo (4)
(1) Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research, Social and Governance Policy Research Department, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (2) University of Lagos, Lagos, Geography, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (3) Lead City University, Environmental management, Ibadan, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (4) University of Lagos, Geography, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Indigenous traditional knowledge and biodiversity are complimentary phenomena essential to human development and sustainable resource management. The rural communities have a significant role to play in maintaining the integrity of ecosystems to ensure that it continues to support  livelihood activities. This paper discussed traditional knowledge in the use and management of forest resources in the Nigerian savanna and how this knowledge has been used to improve the livelihhods of the people. It combines focal group discussions, key informants interviews and household survey in 11 communities across 10 local councils with vegetal surveys. The results of this study revealed that  people in the area possess considerable knowledge of the natural resources they use and how to ensure the sustainability of some these resources to ensure that they continue to support their livelihoods. Strategies and programmes that are more likely to succeed will require integration of coordinated efforts aimed at poverty alleviation and food security with measures to combat land degradation, reduce loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Such integrated measures must be science-based but community driven to ensure its sustainability and synergy.