Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Thursday 9 July - 15:00-16:30 UPMC Jussieu - ROOM 103 - Block 24/34

4418 (b) - Information for decision making - Improve availability, access and use of information

Parallel Session

Chair(s): S. Serrao-Neumann (Griffith University, Nathan, Australia)

Lead Convener(s): A. Coudrain (Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD), Montpellier, France)

Convener(s): M. Winter (German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Leipzig, Germany), I. Glitho (Université de Lome - Faculté des sciences, Lome, Togo)

Co-Convener(s): A.T. Gaye (University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Dakar, Senegal)

15:00

Enhancing National Climate Services for Development in Africa

T. Dinku (The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States of America), M. Thomson (The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States of America), S. Connor (Liverpool University, Liverpool, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Enhancing National Climate Services for Development in Africa

T. Dinku (1) ; M. Thomson (1) ; S. Connor (2)
(1) The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States of America; (2) Liverpool University, Geography, Liverpool, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Timely and appropriate climate information could play a critical role in national development planning; helping policy and decision makers to better manage climate risks and maximize opportunities. Available and decision-relevant climate information on the past climate, recent trends, likely future trajectories, anomalies and associated impacts is a prerequisite for climate-informed decision making. Unfortunately, climate information is not widely used in Africa to make development decisions.  This is mainly because useful information is often not available or, if it does exist, is inaccessible to those that need it most.

The ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services) initiative is an ambitious effort to simultaneously improve the availability, access and use of climate information by working directly with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS).  It enables the NMHS to provide enhanced services by overcoming the challenges of data quality, availability and access – while at the same time fostering stakeholder engagement and use. The new spatially and temporally complete ENACTS data products allow for characterization of climate risks at a local scale, and potentially offer a low-cost, high impact opportunity to support applications and research. ENACTS has so far been implemented in Ethiopia, Madagascar, Tanzania, Rwanda and The Gambia at national levels, and at regional level for the CILSS countries (West African Sahel).

15:15

Assessing climate change vulnerability of species: best practice guidelines for conservation practitioners

W. Foden (Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, Johannesburg, South Africa), R. Akcakaya, (Stony Brook University, New York, United States of America), D. Bickford, (National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore), S. Butchart, (BirdLife International, Cambridge, United Kingdom), J. Carr, (IUCN Global Species Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom), A. Hoffmann, (University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia), D. Hole, (Conservation International, Washington DC, United States of America), B. Huntley, (University of Durham, Durham, United Kingdom), T. Martin, (CSIRO, Brisbane, Australia), M. Pacifici, (University of Rome, Rome, Italy), B. Scheffers, (James Cook University, Townsville, Australia), S. Williams, (James Cook University, Townsville, Australia), B. Young, (NatureServe, San Jose, Costa Rica), R. Corlett (Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Menglun, Mengla, Yunnan, China), K. Kovaks, (Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromso, Norway), G. Midgley, (University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa), P. Pearce-Kelly, (Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom), R. Pearson, (University College London, London, United Kingdom), M. Stanley-Price, (Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom), J. Watson, (Wildlife Conservation Society, Brisbane, Australia)

Abstract details
Assessing climate change vulnerability of species: best practice guidelines for conservation practitioners

W. Foden (1) ; R. Akcakaya, (2) ; D. Bickford, (3) ; S. Butchart, (4) ; J. Carr, (5) ; A. Hoffmann, (6) ; D. Hole, (7) ; B. Huntley, (8) ; T. Martin, (9) ; M. Pacifici, (10) ; B. Scheffers, (11) ; S. Williams, (11) ; B. Young, (12) ; R. Corlett (13) ; K. Kovaks, (14) ; G. Midgley, (15) ; P. Pearce-Kelly, (16) ; R. Pearson, (17) ; M. Stanley-Price, (18) ; J. Watson, (19)
(1) Global Change and Sustainability Research Institute, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) Stony Brook University, New York, United States of America; (3) National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; (4) BirdLife International, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (5) IUCN Global Species Programme, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (6) University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; (7) Conservation International, Washington DC, United States of America; (8) University of Durham, Durham, United Kingdom; (9) CSIRO, Brisbane, Australia; (10) University of Rome, Rome, Italy; (11) James Cook University, Townsville, Australia; (12) NatureServe, San Jose, Costa Rica; (13) Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Center for integrative conservation, Menglun, Mengla, Yunnan, China; (14) Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromso, Norway; (15) University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa; (16) Zoological Society of London, London, United Kingdom; (17) University College London, London, United Kingdom; (18) Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom; (19) Wildlife Conservation Society, Brisbane, Australia

Abstract content

For effective climate change adaptation planning, conservation practitioners must consider how their areas and species of concern are likely to be impacted by climate change.  At present, however, they face a burgeoning scientific literature describing a wide variety of methods for assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change, each with its own strengths and limitations.  Based on inputs spanning the conservation science and practitioner communities, along with broad literature review, the IUCN Species Survival Commission’s Climate Change Specialist Group has developed guidance for selecting and applying methods for assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change. 

The best practice guidelines outline commonly used approaches for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability namely correlative (niche-based), mechanistic and trait-based approaches. They guide users to clearly define the scope and objectives of their assessments, and to identify and evaluate their available data, technical, expertise, time and financial resources. With the aid of a decision framework, users match their objectives with appropriate methods, and then identify those for which they have sufficient resources. The guidelines also include sections on selection and appropriate use of climate and biological data, selecting temporal and spatial scales, and working with uncertainty, knowledge gaps and indirect climate change impacts.  They present overarching principles, ideas for communicating assessment results, and a broad range of case studies demonstrating how the guidelines can be applied.

This presentation provides an overview of the new best practice guidelines for assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change and familiarizes attendees with steps for making sound and defensible decisions on method choice. Through the guidelines we hope to make climate change vulnerability assessment more accessible to the conservation practitioner community, thereby providing the best possible foundation for climate change adaptation planning.

15:27

The experience of the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory

R. Gracie (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil), C. Barcellos, (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil), D. Silva, (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informações Científicas e Tecnológicas, , Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), H. Barros, (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), V. Matos, (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, , Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil)

Abstract details
The experience of the Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory

R. Gracie (1) ; C. Barcellos, (2) ; D. Silva, (3) ; H. Barros, (4) ; V. Matos, (5)
(1) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Laboratório de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; (2) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Laboratório de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil; (3) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informações Científicas e Tecnológicas, , Laboratorio de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (4) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Laboratorio de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (5) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica, , Laboratorio de informação em saúde, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil

Abstract content

Gathering and analyzing data on climate and health, as well as information on socioeconomic and environmental factors, is essential for planning actions to adapt to and mitigate climate change. In view of the complexity of the processes involved between global environmental and climate change and its effects on health, it is essential to bring together and analyze data in such a way as to provide society, government agencies and the media with information on these changes. To achieve this follow-up, a set of data on the dimensions of the climate, environment, population and health is required. The Brazilian Climate and Health Observatory project is making information on climate and health available through an internet page (www.climasaude.icict.fiocruz.br) where data from different origins can be accessed on a common platform. This technology is innovative in that it allows users to make consultations that simultaneously use distributed data, i.e. data generated and maintained by different institutions. The Information Technology and the information content were agreed between the participating institutions, researchers and representatives of government and civil society in workshops during which a consensual platform was agreed among data producers and data users.An initial assessment of the possible impacts of climate changes on health was made by a group of public health researchers, resulting on a list of climate-sensitive diseases (Barcellos, 2009). Vector-borne diseases, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, water-borne diseases and a variety of health problems resulting from prolonged drought or floods, such as hunger and infant mortality, were selected to be monitored by the Observatory.The debate on climate change drivers, its impact on public health and adaptation actions needs to be a democratic process that allows participation by different social actors, with guidance towards motivating present-day changes with short, medium and long-term repercussions. In the Observatory project, participation is proposed as a path leading to integration between citizens, researchers and public health administrators so as to enable manifestations towards and interactions with other individuals within the community, develop reflective discussions and propose new ways of comprehending the process of climate change. Citizens, even if without links to any institution, can feed the Observatory with information on extreme climatic events and new data giving warnings about the population’s health conditions, by means of the “Live Database”. The intention with this database is to allow insertion and publication of georeferenced information in the formats of text, images or external links. In addition, comments on news items or research conducted under coordination from the Observatory are encouraged. The Observatory’s various workshops held in different regions of the country have included participation from organizations within local and national civil society.Furthermore, the project has acted as a means of assembling researchers interested in the debate on the effects of climate change on health. Recent occurrences of extreme events, such as the torrential rainfall on the coastal mountain range of the state of Rio de Janeiro, the fluctuations in river levels in the Amazon region and the intensification of vegetation burning in the arc of deforestation, have raised awareness among researchers and citizens regarding the need for preventive action to reduce the impact of climate-related natural disasters.On the other hand, the long-term and indirect effects of climate change on health, such as expansion of the incidence of vector-borne diseases, remain little studied by researchers. This makes it difficult to bring citizens into the debate on the long-term effects of climate change and the possible measures to adapt to these changes.The results from studies under development at the sentinel sites have shown how climatic factors influence the transmission of water-borne diseases in Manaus; how atmospheric pollution associated with vegetation burning influences respiratory diseases in the states of Rondônia and Mato Grosso (Carmo, 2010); and how rainfall and temperatures affect vector-borne diseases like dengue (Lowe, 2012). These studies may promote of debate on the effects of climate change on health, and on the role of the healthcare services, within the Brazilian National Health System, in reducing these impacts.

15:39

The Global Island Database as a strategic asset for island biodiversity issues

C. Depraetere (IRD, Montpellier, France), A. L. Dahl (International Environment Forum, Geneva, Switzerland), J. Hutton (World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The Global Island Database as a strategic asset for island biodiversity issues

C. Depraetere (1) ; AL. Dahl (2) ; J. Hutton (3)
(1) IRD, UMR ESPACE/DEV, Montpellier, France; (2) International Environment Forum, Geneva, Switzerland; (3) World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The Global Island Database (GID) targets the five themes important for islands, as identified by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD/UNEP), namely biodiversity, climate change, invasive species, pollution and sustainability. It aims to provide a geographical and environmental strategic tool to define priority in island biodiversity issues, including assessment and protection, at a global scale. As such, it does not replace regional, national or local GIS databases but it comes in synergy with them in a macrobiological perspective. GID aims to be a GIS networking platform for international collaboration, noticeably for the Global Islands Partnership (GLISPA).

Some pioneering works were initiated in the 90ies in the scope of providing global information on islands before GIS and the WEB became available [1] [2]. The initiative of making available an online version of GID was supported by GLISPA, the UNEP/WCMC and the Italian Government during the CBD CoP9 2008 in Bonn. The first version of Global Island Database (GID) was officially announced at the UN Commission on Sustainable Development SIDS Special Day of celebrations on 10 May 2010 in New York. The further versions were updated at the initiative of the WCMC and includes specific tools for interactive functionalities to users, as for instance the GID validation tools [3]. It allows edition and validation of spatial and attribute information for any islands including those not referenced in GID. It is an example of on-line participative science whose purpose is to improve and update the spatial accuracy and associated information relating to islands or islets whatever the size.

The GID present version takes account of more than 180,000 islands including all the 116,103 islands greater than 0.06 km² from New-Guinea (783,408 km²) down to the islet of Gemini close to the shore of Elba (0.06 km²). Each island received a specific international island coding (IIC) and refers to attributes on geographical names, location, planimetry, human occupations, climatology, and topography (Table 1). 

Table 1: few attributes associated with islands in GID

(Area in km², Perimeter in km, Elevation_Max in metres, Rainfall_Year in mm)

(IMPOSSIBLE TO INSERT PORPERLY THE TABLE ON THE WEB SITE)

This GIS asset is not only allows the visualisation of data relevant for islands but also provides added value through contextual information, data analyses and potential biodiversity indicators for the various stakeholders requiring homogenous information for comparison purposes and prioritizing funding and actions. It is one of the tools which is urgently required to get over the present "island data gap" facing SIDS and countries with islands, as stated by macro ecologists: "We found that environmental characteristics were harder to determine for islands because they are not well represented in most global environmental data sets” [4]. It is also worth noting that the UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director, Achim Steiner said: “High quality databases are crucial for addressing both the threats to biodiversity and economically important ecosystems. The importance of GID for island nations cannot be over stated, and is long overdue”[ 5].

References:

[1] Dahl, Arthur Lyon. 1991: Island Directory. UNEP Regional Seas Directories and Bibliographies No. 35. UNEP, Nairobi (573 pp.). Cf. Also the website  http://islands.unep.ch/isldir.htm

[2] Christian Depraetere, 1991: Le phénomene insulaire à l’échelle du globe: tailles, hiérarchies et formes des îles océanes. L’Espace Géographique, 1990-1991, No. 2, pp. 126-134.

[3] cf. the Global Island Database Validation Tool on https://vimeo.com/68301630

[4] Holger Kreft, Walter Jetz, Jens Mutke, Gerold Kier and Wilhelm Barthlott, 2008: “Global diversity of island floras from a macroecological perspective”, Ecology Letters, (2008) 11: 116–127

[5] Strengthening Opportunities and Decision - Making for Sustainable Management of Islands. New York, 10 May 2010 http://www.unep.org/documents.multilingual/default.asp?DocumentID=624&ArticleID=6559&l=en

15:51

Quantifying the changing shape of local climate

D.A. Stainforth (London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom), S. Chapman, (Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics,, Warwick, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Quantifying the changing shape of local climate

S. Chapman, (1) ; DA. Stainforth (2) ; N. Watkins, (3)
(1) Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics,, Department of physics, Warwick, United Kingdom; (2) London School of Economics, Grantham Research Institute, London, United Kingdom; (3) London School of Economics, Centre for the analysis of timeseries, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Climate is intrinsically a distribution and changing climate a change in distribution. Adaptation decisions and individual’s perceptions of climate change are influenced by changes in thresholds in these distributions. Different decisions are impacted by different thresholds but in most cases the relevant distributions are those experienced at local scales. To understand the impact of climate change on practical decisions requires us to quantify how local climatic distributions are changing shape. Such information also substantially affects how climate change can be communicated and made relevant.

 

Changes in the shape of local climatic distributions are influenced by global and large scale (synoptic) changes in the earth system but are mediated by local / meso-scale circumstances. It is not clear to what extent it is possible given current technology and model limitations, to predict such changes multiple decades in the future. However, it is now beginning to be possible to identify changes in the shape of local climate from observational timeseries in some locations. Such changes provide crucial information which can help decision makers optimise decisions for the climate of today by putting them in the context of the fine detail (geographic and distributional) information from recent decades. It also provides a baseline of climate change against which future projections can be put into context.

 

Here we will present such analyses showing the changing shape of European climatic distributions in terms of changing probabilities and changing decision-relevant thresholds. The process could be automated by climate services providers to generate output tailored to the needs and vulnerabilities of individuals and organisations. Challenges in the statistical interpretation of the data will be highlighted and a means of identifying robust aspects will be presented. Results will be shown from two recent papers which address local temperature distributions, and work-in-progress on changes in precipitation distributions. The analytical process can be seen as transforming direct weather observations into observations of climate change.

 

References:

Stainforth, D.A., S.C. Chapman, and N.W. Watkins, Mapping climate change in European temperature distributions Environmental Research Letters, 2013. 8(3).

 

Chapman, S.C., D.A. Stainforth, and N.W. Watkins, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society a-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2013(371).

16:02

Poster presentations:

Abstract details
Poster presentations:
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16:03

Development of an interactive, multi-objective decision support system in South Africa

T. Lane-Visser (Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract details
Development of an interactive, multi-objective decision support system in South Africa

T. Lane-Visser (1)
(1) Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

Climate change, and the decisions to be made regarding the management thereof, is inherently complex and multi-faceted. However, in the complex world we live in, it is but one of many complexities - there are many other essential systems and pivotal issues with which it interacts. Going forward, decisions will not be based on the traditional decision criterion of cost alone, nor should it be based on a single criterion (which ignores the knock-on impacts of a decision in terms of other criteria). To be defensible and responsible, decision makers need to be cognisant of the full extent of their decision’s impacts before making a final decision. Myopic decision support systems often, inadvertently, do more harm than good in the long run. Multi-objective decision support has been developed to try and overcome this problem.

Generally, a country’s energy generation and consumption is a key driver of its greenhouse gas emissions. The TIMES model generator, a widely used country-wide energy planning tool, was developed as part of the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program, an international community which uses long term energy scenarios to conduct in-depth energy and environmental analyses. The TIMES model generator combines two different, but complementary, systematic approaches to modelling energy: a technical engineering approach and an economic approach. It is a technology rich, bottom-up model generator, which uses linear-programming to produce a least-cost energy system, optimised according to a number of user constraints, over medium to long-term time horizons. In a nutshell, TIMES is used for the exploration of possible energy futures based on contrasted scenarios. The model makes equipment investment decisions and operating, primary energy supply, and energy trade decisions, by region. This outputs an optimal mix of technologies and fuels at each period, together with the associated emissions to meet the demand. The model uses scenarios to do what if analysis, and does not optimise for anything other than costs.

The first part of this presentation chronicles the conversion of SATIM, a South African calibrated version of TIMES, from a cost only to a bi-objective (initially) and multi-objective (ultimately) optimisation model. The practicalities of such a conversion, along with the obstacles encountered and ways to surmount said obstacles, are discussed. This conversion was part of a MAPS South Africa initiative to create a multi-objective energy sector planning model for South Africa. The benefit of having such a model is the ability to study trade-offs and to provide more rich data for decision makers. The second part of the presentation will demonstrate and elaborate on the enrichment of data outputs thanks to the expanded model.

The end goal of this modelling work is to convert the South African linked energy and economic model (a combination of SATIM and a South African economic (CGE) model) into a multi-objective optimisation framework. Adding the economic framework opens the scope for a wealth of economic and social considerations to be included in the objectives, broadening the reach of the model in terms of decision support and stakeholder representation. Further to this, true multi-objective decision support cannot happen in isolation from decision makers, who have insight into the problem and are able to specify preference information related to the objectives considered and the different solution alternatives. It is, thus, proposed to incorporate interactive modelling techniques in the model formulation. Interactive modelling is a constructive process where, while learning, the decision maker is building a conviction of what is possible and confronting this knowledge with his or her preferences, which are also evolving. The presentation will conclude with an overview of the proposed methodology for the development and implementation of such a large scale, complex model. Ideally, advice and constructive feedback on this proposed plan will be elicited during or after this presentation. 

16:05

Communicating uncertainties of future coastal impacts for decision making

G. Le Cozannet (BRGM / CNRS, Orleans, France), J. Rohmer (BRGM, Orleans, France), A. Cazenave (CNRS-CNES, Toulouse, France), D. Idier (BRGM, Orléans, France), F. Lavigne (LGP, Orleans, France), C. Oliveros (BRGM, Orleans, France)

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Communicating uncertainties of future coastal impacts for decision making

G. Le Cozannet (1) ; J. Rohmer (2) ; A. Cazenave (3) ; D. Idier (4) ; F. Lavigne (5) ; C. Oliveros (2)
(1) BRGM / CNRS, BRGM-DRP-R3C / CNRS-LGP (UMR-8591), Orleans, France; (2) BRGM, Orleans, France; (3) CNRS-CNES, Laboratoire d'études en géophysique et océanographie spatiales, Toulouse, France; (4) BRGM, Orléans, France; (5) LGP, Orleans, France

Abstract content

As sea-level rises, coastal hazards and risks such as extreme flooding or erosion are changing. For accurate assessments, several factors must be considered, such as the variability of sea-level rise and storm surge patterns. We proceed to a global sensitivity analysis of future coastal impacts of sea-level rise, in order to provide quantitative insight into the relative importance of contributing uncertainties over the coming decades. The method is applied for typical coastal settings of high- and low-energy coasts. Storm surge propagation processes, then sea-level variability, and, later, global sea-level rise scenarios become successively important source of uncertainties over the 21st century. This defines research priorities that depend on the target period of interest. On the long term, scenarios RCP 6.0 and 8.0 challenge local capacities of adaptation for the considered sites. For decision makers concerned with adaptation to climate change in coastal areas, this approach provides quantitative insight into three key issues related to: (1) the timeliness of coastal adaptation planning (2) the identification of periods by which rising sea-levels cause rapid obsolescence of regular adaptation measures (3) the constraints imposed by different future climate change scenarios for long-term adaptation planning.

16:07

Cooperation on climate change under economic linkages - How the inclusion of macroeconomic effects affects stability of a global climate coalition

J. Kersting (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany), M. Weitzel (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America), V. Duscha (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany)

Abstract details
Cooperation on climate change under economic linkages - How the inclusion of macroeconomic effects affects stability of a global climate coalition

J. Kersting (1) ; M. Weitzel (2) ; V. Duscha (1)
(1) Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Karlsruhe, Germany; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America

Abstract content

Game-theoretic models of international cooperation on climate change come to very different results regarding the stability of the grand coalition of all countries, depending on the stability concept used. In particular, the core stability concept produces an encouraging result that does not seem to be supported by reality. However, current implementations of this model are based on the assumption that a country's consumption loss due to emission abatement measures only depends on the country's domestic emissions. This approach neglects international macroeconomic effects of emission reduction measures, such as technology spillovers or changes in fossil fuel prices. We extend the game-theoretic model based on the core stability concept by introducing these effects into the model. The computable general equilibrium model DART and damage functions from the RICE model are used to quantify the theoretical model. Contrary to the classical model, we find that the core of the resulting cooperative game is empty and no stable global agreement exists. This is mainly due to fossil fuel exporting countries, which are negatively affected by lower fossil fuel prices resulting from global emission reduction measures. Also, other countries do not have a sufficient incentive to compensate fossil fuel exporters for their participation in a global agreement, because the gains of further cooperation are small. We also find that, if damages from climate change are assumed to be high, countries with comparatively low projected damages are a hindrance to global cooperation. Our results point to two alternative ways forward in the climate negotiations. The first option calls for a "coalition of the willing" to compensate blocking countries, mainly fossil fuel exporters, for participation in a global agreement. As we found that no stable global agreement exists, such compensation would not be rational, if the decision is based purely on a benefit-cost analysis of GHG abatement. However, if other arguments such as fairness principles are taken into account, the necessary compensation might be justifiable. The second option calls for the "coalition of the willing" to abandon the UNFCCC process and to try to consummate an agreement among this coalition. This option could come close to the environmental effectiveness of the grand coalition.

16:09

Controlling environmentally-related diseases outbreaks: support of remote sensing, modeling and knowledge integration

M. Mangeas (Institut de recherche pour le développement, Montpellier, France), C. Barcellos, (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Manguinhos, Brazil), J.-C. Desconnets (Institut de recherche pour le développement, Montpellier, France), N. Dessay, (Institut de recherche pour le développement, Montpellier, France), L. Durieux (Institut de recherche pour le développement, Montpellier, France), J.-F. Faure (Institut de recherche pour le développement, Montpellier, France), F. Girond (Institut Pasteur, Antananarivo, Madagascar), V. Herbreteau (Institut de recherche pour le développement, St Pierre La Réunion, France), T. Libourel (Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France), C. Menkes (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), I. Mougenot (Université de Montpellier, Montpellier, France), P. Piola (Institut Pasteur, Antananarivo, Madagascar), C. Révillion (Institut de recherche pour le développement, St Pierre La Réunion, France), E. Roux (Institut de recherche pour le développement, Montpellier, France), M. Teurlai (Institut Pasteur, Noumea, New Caledonia)

Abstract details
Controlling environmentally-related diseases outbreaks: support of remote sensing, modeling and knowledge integration

M. Mangeas (1) ; C. Barcellos, (2) ; JC. Desconnets (1) ; N. Dessay, (1) ; L. Durieux (1) ; JF. Faure (1) ; F. Girond (3) ; V. Herbreteau (4) ; T. Libourel (5) ; C. Menkes (6) ; I. Mougenot (5) ; P. Piola (3) ; C. Révillion (4) ; E. Roux (1) ; M. Teurlai (7)
(1) Institut de recherche pour le développement, Umr espace-dev, Montpellier, France; (2) Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Centro de Informação Científica e Tecnológica, Departamento de informação em saúde, Manguinhos, Brazil; (3) Institut Pasteur, Unité d'epidémiologie, Antananarivo, Madagascar; (4) Institut de recherche pour le développement, Umr espace-dev, St Pierre La Réunion, France; (5) Université de Montpellier, Umr espace-dev, Montpellier, France; (6) IRD, LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia; (7) Institut Pasteur, Unité d'épidémiologie, Noumea, New Caledonia

Abstract content

Recently, in their fifth report on the impacts of climate change (CC), IPCC experts highlight 6 major challenges that will face humanity (IPCC, 2014). The fifth one concerns the impact of global warming on health with a modification of the geography of diseases due to changes in climate. Indeed, in certain areas, CC is going to deeply modify the environment (for example land use, water accessibility, natural habitats) and the links between environment and human health are multiple, complex and multiscale. For example, environment plays an important role on the dynamic of vector-borne diseases since it can modify the distribution of the vectors, and affects interactions between human-vector and vector-pathogen.

In addition to environmental changes, health inequalities are determined by unequal health provision, unequal access (health care coverage, travelling time) and unequal use (related to: socio-economic difficulties, risk perception, risk behaviors). These complex relationships between a changing environment, societies and health are major issues for policy makers.

In this context, gathering and analysing data on climate and health, as well as information on socioeconomic and environmental factors, is essential for planning actions. For this purpose, remotely-sensed data are increasingly available in a very short time (few days) at high spectral (from radar to blue), spatial (<5m) and temporal (daily or weekly) resolutions. The access to such data is promising to improve models and response. Recent advances in information and communication sciences and knowledge engineering could advantageously assist the implementation of spatial data infrastructures. Such infrastructures should handle highly heterogeneous and distributed data while allowing to formalize multidisciplinary knowledge.

In this contribution we propose an integrated solution for assessing the impacts of the CC on Environmentally-Related Infectious Diseases that can be broken up into four sub topics:    

  • aggregation of high quality multidisciplinary in-situ and permanent monitoring spatial information related to environment (including climate), human (socio-economics...), diseases (blurred georeferenced cases to respect anonymity);    
  • formalization of knowledge and reasoning to facilitate contextual interpretation, data integration and dissemination;
  • use of mathematical models to investigate epidemiological dynamics and associated risks linking diseases occurrences with factors related to environment and human activities at different scales (regional to local);
  • production of indicators for assessing social and environmental changes and predicting the spatio-temporal evolution of the epidemiological patterns.

These transformative solutions are useful to mitigate the effects of CC (vector spread control, epidemics forecast and control), to target appropriate actions, to reduce the costs related to improvement in people’s health and to facilitate the dissemination of information to health stakeholders, society, government agencies and media.

We describe several ongoing works which partly contribute to reach these objectives: i) New-Caledonia: --spatial risk modelling, 6 months ahead forecast of dengue epidemics and evolution of dengue dynamics up to year 2100--, ii) French Guiana/Brazil: catalog of multi-thematic spatialized data related to the transborder area between French Guiana and Brazil, portal of a future malaria sentinel site of the Brazilian observatory on climate and health, iii) Mayotte and La Réunion: surveys to investigate the inequalities and choices that drive the use of health care; development of a method to spatially anonymize georeferenced individual data, and iv) Madagascar: early warning system for forecasting malaria outbreaks. We also situate this project within the worldwide initiatives context.

We analyse the benefits of such an approach but also the related obstacles (e.g. data sharing) and technical issues (e.g. multiscaling, complex modelling).

16:11

An integrated framework for climate vulnerability, and natural hazards & risks assessment at the local scale - and its potential for regional upscaling

N. Salzmann (University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland), S. Allen, (University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland), K. Awasthi, (Indian Himalayas Climate Change Adaptation Programme, New Delhi, India), A. Gupta (Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi, India), C. Huggel (University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland), M. Ali Khan (Indian Himalayas Climate Change Adaptation Programme, New Delhi, India), A. Linsbauer (University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland), N. Mendiratta (Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi, India), M. Rohrer (Meteodat GmbH, Zürich, Switzerland), M. Stoffel (University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland), J. Kuriger (Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, New Delhi, India)

Abstract details
An integrated framework for climate vulnerability, and natural hazards & risks assessment at the local scale - and its potential for regional upscaling

N. Salzmann (1) ; S. Allen, (2) ; K. Awasthi, (3) ; A. Gupta (4) ; C. Huggel (5) ; M. Ali Khan (3) ; A. Linsbauer (1) ; N. Mendiratta (4) ; M. Rohrer (6) ; M. Stoffel (7) ; J. Kuriger (8)
(1) University of Fribourg, Department of Geosciences, Fribourg, Switzerland; (2) University of Zurich, Department of geography, Zurich, Switzerland; (3) Indian Himalayas Climate Change Adaptation Programme, New Delhi, India; (4) Department of Science & Technology, New Delhi, India; (5) University of Zürich, Department of geography, Zürich, Switzerland; (6) Meteodat GmbH, Zürich, Switzerland; (7) University of Geneva, Institute for environmental sciences, Geneva, Switzerland; (8) Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, New Delhi, India

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The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) as many other (mountain) regions worldwide, is facing important challenges in view of coping with adverse effects of climatic changes. In order to address adaptation needs and reduce the vulnerability of the communities living in potentially affected regions, the Indian Government under its National Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem (NMSHE) is targeting an integrated vulnerability and risk & hazards assessment encompassing the 12 Indian Himalayan States. The assessment will serve as an important basis for prioritizing, planning and implementing adaptation measures at State/ sub-national level.

 

The Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) of the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC, being implemented in partnership with Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India is actively supporting these efforts through scientific and technical knowledge cooperation between Swiss and Indian scientific institutions. A first step includes the development and implementation of an integrated and comprehensive framework for climate vulnerability and natural hazard and risk assessment in a pilot region of the IHR. Kullu district in Himachal Pradesh, India, has been identified as climate hotspot and as such represents an ideal pilot region.

 

The framework for Kullu is based on the latest concept of vulnerability, hazards and disaster risks from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; AR5, SREX). Specific joint Indo-Swiss collaborative studies are in progress in Kullu covering thematic themes such as climate, cryosphere, floods, agriculture, perception, tourism, forestry and biodiversity. Fundamental for integrated vulnerability assessments is a common baseline and thus particular care was addressed to the definition and agreement for a common time window and homogenous datasets (climate, socio-economic, environmental) for all studies conducted within the framework. With regard to the time window, the baseline refers ideally to a relevant time horizon of their livelihood and must span a climatological period of preferably 30 years (WMO standard). For Kullu, the time window 1981-2010 was chosen.

 

In this contribution, we present the framework for the Kullu region, related results from specific thematic studies and discuss in particular the potential and limitations of the upscaling processes towards a common framework for integrated vulnerability and risks & hazards assessment for the IHR.

16:13

Balancing Short- and Long-lived Climate Pollutant Mitigation: Clearer Metrics are Critical

I. Ocko (Environmental Defense Fund, New York, NY, France), S. Hamburg, (Environmental Defense Fund, Boston, NY, United States of America), S. Pacala (Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States of America)

Abstract details
Balancing Short- and Long-lived Climate Pollutant Mitigation: Clearer Metrics are Critical

I. Ocko (1) ; S. Hamburg, (2) ; S. Pacala (3)
(1) Environmental Defense Fund, Office of Chief Scientist, New York, NY, France; (2) Environmental Defense Fund, Office of chief scientist, Boston, NY, United States of America; (3) Princeton University, Ecology and evolutionary biology, Princeton, NJ, United States of America

Abstract content

Any effective program to address climate change must reflect a well-balanced effort to reduce emissions among a suite of climate pollutants, including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), various fluorocarbons (e.g. HFCs), and black carbon, as their radiative effects and atmospheric longevities vary by orders of magnitude. However, confusion among policy makers about how to attain the optimum balance required to achieve the desired climate benefits has increased dramatically in recent years, in large part because of the way in which climate metrics, Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), are reported in the scientific literature. This confusion is particularly evident in the public and political debate over the expansion of natural gas production in the United States and its use to replace coal in the generation of electricity. Understanding the climate impacts associated with this fuel switching over time is an important and unnecessary source of acrimony. We propose a simple change in the convention used in reporting GWPs that we believe would significantly reduce confusion about the implications of a host of policy decisions. Rather than picking a single time period over which to report the cumulative radiative forcing caused by an emission, typically 20 years (GWP20) or 100 years (GWP100), we propose that the scientific community adopt the convention of reporting climate impacts as a slashed pair: GWP20/GWP100, much the way systolic and diastolic blood pressures are reported together. This framing will help to clarify short- and long-term temporal tradeoffs that are at the heart of much of the confusion. 

16:15

Towards a scalable architecture for climate adaptation services: illustration of challenges through future coastal flooding assessments

A. Tellez-Arenas (BRGM, Orléans, France), G. Le Cozannet (BRGM, Orléans, France), R. Quique (BRGM, Orléans, France), F. Paris (BRGM, Orléans, France), F. Boulahya (BRGM, Orléans, France), S. Leroy (BRGM, Orléans, France), F. Dupros (BRGM, Orléans, France), F. Robida (BRGM, Orléans, France)

Abstract details
Towards a scalable architecture for climate adaptation services: illustration of challenges through future coastal flooding assessments

A. Tellez-Arenas (1) ; G. Le Cozannet (1) ; R. Quique (1) ; F. Paris (1) ; F. Boulahya (1) ; S. Leroy (1) ; F. Dupros (1) ; F. Robida (1)
(1) BRGM, Orléans, France

Abstract content

As climate is changing, more applied information on its impacts is required to inform adaptation planning. It is a fact that during the last decade, the amount of information relevant for climate change impact assessment has grown drastically. This can be particularly illustrated in coastal areas, where a most important recent development has been the delivery of precise and accurate topography obtained by LiDAR at regional to national scales. However, these developments have not led to easier assessment of coastal climate change impacts. This is due to (1) the complexity of coastal models that also depend on local natural changes and anthropogenic actions and (2) the difficulty to actually use such large and complex datasets. This raises the following questions: can such complex and heterogeneous datasets be used for an efficient communication of future flooding affected by sea-level rise and climate change? How to communicate the related uncertainties? What infrastructure is needed to support the development of such services?

One of the major challenges in the design of this class of information system is to tackle both the volume and the heterogeneity of the data required to build relevant climate services.  Contributions from wingspan projects (Copernicus, EarthCube, EPOS), have demonstrated the feasibility of such architecture. The scalability of the components lying at the heart of these global systems is therefore critical in order to handle large data sets, to integrate complex coastal models and also to deliver near real-time quantitative flooding scenarios. We will therefore discuss several issues related to data architecture at large scale, on-the-fly (geo)-processing capabilities, management of asynchronous workflows and data diffusion strategies in the context of international standards such as  INSPIRE (Infrastructure for Spatial Information in Europe).

We finally describe a prototype of web service to quickly communicate spatial information on future flooding along the French coastal zones that takes into account the related uncertainties. We believe that our flexible architecture, mainly reusing off-the-shelf components is able to improve both complex scenarios analysis for experts and dissemination of these future coastal changes to the general public.

16:17

Discussion

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Discussion
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