Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Tuesday 7 July - 17:00-18:30 UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 24

2229 - Cities and their environments: Assessing Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation strategies across scales from rural to urban

Parallel Session

Chair(s): M. Musy (ensa Nantes, IRSTV FR CNRS 2488, Nantes, France)

Convener(s): P. Dasgupta

17:00

Sustainable Futures in Rural and Peri-Urban Areas

M. Musy (Institut de Recherche en Sciences et Techniques de la Ville, Nantes, France), D. Purnamita (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India), J. Morton (University of Greenwich, Greenwich, United Kingdom)

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Sustainable Futures in Rural and Peri-Urban Areas

D. Purnamita (1) ; J. Morton (2)
(1) Institute of Economic Growth, Environmental and Natural Resource Economics Unit, Delhi, India; (2) University of Greenwich, Greenwich, United Kingdom

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Keynote for the Session

This keynote will focus on the possible impacts from climate change on rural areas and rural-urban continuums, with special emphasis on the implications for human settlements. It will consider alternatives for building resilience for the future in recognition of a two-way relationship between sustainable economic development and climate change. A wide range of human and ecosystem interactions define the risks from climate change, in many parts of the world, including the developing and the least developed, where multiple stressors co-exist. Illustrations to highlight these aspects will be drawn from material from the AR5 report of the IPCC. The opportunities and challenges in bridging the gaps between quantitative and qualitative dimensions, of integration across scales and timelines is also to be discussed given the multiple sources of vulnerability and differences in development across regions of the world. In this context, the presentation will dwell on the economic valuation of climate change impacts which requires moving from pure cost benefit analysis to multi-metric evaluations with consideration of the risk and uncertainty dimensions. Non-market values, inequities, behavioral biases, ancillary costs and benefits of response options and aggregation of values across multiple contexts call for innovative and less conventional approaches.

17:03

Panel discussion:

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Panel discussion:
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17:05

Cooling Our Cities: International efforts to implement heat island countermeasures

H. Akbari (Concordia University, Montreal, Canada)

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Cooling Our Cities: International efforts to implement heat island countermeasures

H. Akbari (1)
(1) Concordia University, BCEE, Montreal, Canada

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As the threat of climate change becomes more pronounced, a number of scientists have proposed supplementing the full range of mitigation efforts with geo-engineering (manipulation of the Earth’s environment) to quickly respond to this threat. Many proposed geo-engineering techniques are novel and unproven. One simple technology has been in practice for thousands of years: changing the solar reflectance (albedo) of the built surface. “Cool roofs” and “cool pavements” should be among the first geo-engineering techniques used to combat global warming.

Increasing the solar reflectance of the urban surface reduce its solar heat gain, lowers its temperatures, and decreases its outflow of thermal infrared radiation into the atmosphere. This process of “negative radiative forcing” can help counter the effects of global warming. We estimate that resurfacing conventional dark roofs with a cool white material that has a long-term solar reflectance of 0.60 or more increases its solar reflectance by at least 0.40. Retrofitting 100 m2 of roof has an effect on radiative forcing equivalent to a one-time offset of 10 tonnes of CO2. Similarly, the solar reflectance of pavement can be raised on average by about 0.15, the equivalent of a 4 t reduction in CO2 per 100 m2.

In addition, cool roofs reduce cooling-energy use in air conditioned buildings and increase comfort in unconditioned buildings; and cool roofs and cool pavements mitigate summer urban heat islands, improving outdoor air quality and comfort. Installing cool roofs and cool pavements in cities worldwide is a compelling win-win-win activity that can be undertaken immediately, outside of international negotiations to cap CO2 emissions. We review the status of cool roof and cool pavements technologies, policies, and programs in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. We propose an international campaign to use solar reflective materials when roofs and pavements are built or resurfaced in temperate and tropical regions.

This presentation will discuss the technologies and international policies related to development and utilization of cool construction materials.

17:14

Towards an integrated model for more sustainable urban (re-)planning

D. Robinson (University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom)

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Towards an integrated model for more sustainable urban (re-)planning

D. Robinson (1)
(1) University of Nottingham, Architecture and built environment, Nottingham, United Kingdom

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Sustainability has become a byword. Whilst it is understood that we are now mainly an urban species, that the overwhelming majority of economic activity and associated resource use takes place in cities, some surprisingly basic questions remain unanswered: How do we define city sustainability? How do we then measure it to determine how sustainable a city is? Which are the most effective strategies and policy measures to bring about positive change? How do we model them to evaluate their effectiveness? How do we then implement them? These are some of the questions currently being tackled by the Laboratory of Urban Complexity and Sustainability (LUCAS) at Nottingham. Positioned within this landscape, I will focus in this talk on the challenges we face in developing a platform for modelling the principle urban resource flows, in a sufficiently spatially sensitive manner to support the testing of scenarios to minimise these flows (or some measure(s) of them) in the future and how cities might transition to these target future states.

17:23

Climate Change in Rural Areas: Reflections

J. Morton (Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Chatham, Maritime, Kent, United Kingdom)

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Climate Change in Rural Areas: Reflections

J. Morton (1)
(1) Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Livelihoods and Institutions, Chatham, Maritime, Kent, United Kingdom

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The Contribution of Working Group 2 to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014) included for the first time a Chapter on Rural Areas.  This presentation will be a reflection on the writing of that chapter by one of its two Co-ordinating Lead Authors.  Some of the questions posed will be as follows:

  • Is there something specific about rural areas (or “rurality”) that can make them an object of study in the context of climate change, along the continuum from low-income to high-income countries?
  • How can the different experiences of poverty and ill-being in rural and urban contexts, as they exist and as they will be exacerbated by climate change, best be compared in a non-reductionist manner?
  • How best can we conceptualise and research interactions between adaptation and mitigation in rural areas?
  • How best can we conceptualise and research linkages between rural and urban areas and the ways they will be impacted, and will adapt, under climate change?

17:32

Assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies at the district scale

M. Musy (ensa Nantes, IRSTV FR CNRS 2488, Nantes, France)

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Assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies at the district scale

M. Musy (1)
(1) ensa Nantes, IRSTV FR CNRS 2488, Nantes, France

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The urban climate is on average warmer than its rural counterpart. This urban heat island (or UHI) is influenced by the corresponding urban form and materials and their impacts on radiative exchanges and heat storage, by vegetation and byanthropogenic heat gains. In summer, heat rejection from air cooling systems can represent a substantial share of these anthropogenic gains and this is itself exacerbated by the urban heat island, since this diminishes systems’ performance. On the other hand, in climates in which buildings’ energy use is dominated by heating demands, the UHI reduces demands for applied energy and may, on the whole, improve pedestrians’ comfort. These climate-energy-comfort relationships are complex and intertwined. Furthermore, as cities become denser, the magnitude of this UHI increases and this can have significant implications for building energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, comfort and indeed for mortality; as the influence of heat waves isintensified. Solutions to climate change mitigation, energy transition and climate change adaptation must thus be tackled simultaneously. The effectiveness of these solutions requires, in addition to knowledge of the relationships between climate and the thermal behaviour of buildings, the development of approaches that support predictions of energy use in the urban context and its impacts on the urban microclimate. In that context, policymakers face an increasing need to improve knowledge of environmental impacts from city layouts and uses on the urban climate, in order to assist with planning climate change mitigation and adaptation measures. This proposed contribution aims to gather and debate the state of the art regarding assessment of UHI reduction strategies, with a particular emphasis on the district scale, which is the usualurban planning and design scale.

17:41

Q&A with panelists

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Q&A with panelists
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17:46

Responding to Changing in Climate : Who Act The Most in Greater Jakarta

S. A. Dalimunthe (Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Jakarta, Indonesia), I. A. Perdana Putri (Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Jakarta, Indonesia)

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Responding to Changing in Climate : Who Act The Most in Greater Jakarta

SA. Dalimunthe (1) ; IA. Perdana Putri (1)
(1) Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Research center for Population, Jakarta, Indonesia

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Over the past decade, increased knowledge coupled with economic incentives, subsidies and related interventions has raised awareness and concern about climate change in vulnerable Greater Jakarta. This paper will analyze index and status of responsiveness of each region within Greater Jakarta towards climate change by means of Climate Change Effectivity Response Assessment (CCERA) using multidimensional scaling technique (MDS). Total data used is 1261 respondent. Overall, the index shown Bogor responding the most to climate change. Looking through each dimension, it is likely Bogor is the highest in knowledge dimensions (61.14), community resources (63.72) and level of alertness (87.26). While Bekasi holds the highest index in individual resources (71.47). The most influencing attribute regarding to index and status response are willingness to take out insurance, willingness to change lifestyle (knowledge); sign up for early warning alerts and disaster preparedness plan (individual resources); talk to other about taking action and feel involved in decision making (communal resources) and don’t know to response and care about natural environment (level of alertness). The result of this study will provide evidence based to support more ambitious regional response to climate change based on the status of responsiveness of each region in Greater Jakarta.

17:52

Continued Growth, Sustainability and Climate Change in America's Energy Capital

K. Lester (Rice University, Houston, TX, United States of America)

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Continued Growth, Sustainability and Climate Change in America's Energy Capital

K. Lester (1)
(1) Rice University, Shell Center for Sustainability, Houston, TX, United States of America

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Planners are uniquely situated to contribute a comprehensive approach to evaluating and solving development issues (Myers, 1997). Many of the less discipline specific issues in addressing climate change such as understanding long-range consequences of present actions; understanding needs for disadvantaged populations; and managing the exchange of confluences between the built environment and natural environment fall naturally under the toolbox of planners. Methods and tools in planning are robust enough for this challenge (Talen, 1996). New research is taking a critical look at what approaches should and are being conducted across the US (Jepson & Haines, 2014). This is exactly the type of environment that fosters more integration of planning for climate change into the routine high visibility planning products developed for and by cities. This presentation will deliver findings from a study addressing the question of limits to growth and climate change impacts in America’s largest energy metropolis.

The City of Houston, Texas is the 4th most populous city in the United States, with a population of 2.1 million persons as of the 2010 US population census. Houston is the most sprawling city of the top 5 most populous, with a land area of approximately 600 square miles, which is larger than New York and Chicago combined.  Less than 10% of the workers use public transportation to get to work. Houston has only 7.5 miles of passenger rail, while New York has 2,047 miles and Chicago has 224 miles. This sprawling city is also home to the Port of Houston, which is the largest port in the US for foreign trade and imports. It supports the largest petrochemical manufacturing area in the world. It is estimated that 1 million jobs are supported by port activity and approximately $178 billion in economic activity in Texas (Port of Houston Authority, 2013). This evidence shows that Houston is a sprawling city, with a dependence on private automobiles and an economy heavily influenced by development and trade in petrocarbons.  This city is a challenge to planning for climate change and an ideal environment to evaluate the impacts of projected major growth inducing forces into the future.

A comprehensive suite of sustainability indicators from the Houston Sustainability Indicators project (HSI), will serve as the base measures to characterize Houston and its environment in this study. The HSI project has reported on the sustainable development of the City of Houston for the past four years and produced four (4) reports showing dynamics at various spatial levels (Blackburn, 2011; King, 2014; 2013; 2012). Indicators will be projected to 2030 and 2050 and multivariate analysis will be conducted on the indicators and communities across the city to support identification of major development factors ongoing at these two times (2030 and 2050). Specifically, this exploratory research will seek to identify factors explaining limits to growth around the stress nexus issues of energy, water and food in addition to land use constraints among communities in Houston in 2030 and 2050.  Houston needs to prepare for several climate change scenarios such as increases in temperatures, water scarcity, flooding, seal-level rise, droughts and increased storm frequency. However the political climate focuses more on current issues rather than medium term or long term ones. This study serves to examine one method in which cities can evaluate expected development conditions across many processes and identify congruent development trends that may help to explain environmental stress in energy, water, food and land use. Planning for climate change is essential in current times of uncertainty and this research contributes new findings towards this effort (Barth, 2011).

Barth, B., 2011. Planning for Climate Change: A Strategic, Value-Based APproach for Urban Planners, Nairobi, Kenya: UN Habitat. Jepson, E. & Haines, A., 2014. Zoning for sustainability: A review and analysis of the zoning ordinances of 32 cities in the United States. Journal of the American Planning Association, 80(3), pp. 239-252. Myers, D., 1997. Anchor Points for Planning's Identification. Journal of Planning Education and Research, pp. 223-224. Talen, E., 1996. After the plans: Methods to evaluate the implementation success of plans. Journal of Planning Education and Research, pp. 79-91.

17:58

Efficiency of Waste Management of Different Cities in the Philippines: Assessment and Its Implication to Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Policies

J. Pagunsan (Office of the Ombudsman, Quezon City, Philippines), K. Shimada, (Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu City, Japan)

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Efficiency of Waste Management of Different Cities in the Philippines: Assessment and Its Implication to Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Policies

J. Pagunsan (1) ; K. Shimada, (2)
(1) Office of the Ombudsman, Field Investigation Office II, Quezon City, Philippines; (2) Ritsumeikan University, Economics, Kusatsu City, Japan

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Rapid increase in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) particularly in the waste management processes resulted in socio-economic changes and various environmental issues in major cities of the world. Increasing trends of GHGs emission was due to the rapid urbanization and booming economic development in these cities particularly in developing countries like Philippines. Globally, the risks and uncertainties of climate change tend to be more complex and costly which can aggravate the threat to human civilization and economic development of a particular country. This pressing issue at hand calls for a comprehensive evaluation and consideration for the progressive and sustainable future in a more globalized society. Hence, this paper evaluated the efficiency of waste management of different cities in the Philippines towards climate change mitigation and adaptation. The two-stage approach was utilized in quantifying and understanding the efficiency of different cities in the Philippines. First, efficiency of every city was done using Data Envelopment Analysis. Having the efficiency scores at hand, efficiency measurement was expanded using Tobit Regression Analysis to further analyze the potential influence of environmental factors such as land area, number of barangays (villages), poverty incidence, environmental governance and presence of disposal facility in the implementation of waste management in different cities. Finally, this paper will conclude with the analysis and discussion on its implication to climate change mitigation and adaptation policies.

18:04

Building Urban Climate Resiliency and Adaptation Strategies: A Case Study of an Indian Mega Cities

S. Mandal (National Institute of Technology Patna, Patna, Bihar, India)

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Building Urban Climate Resiliency and Adaptation Strategies: A Case Study of an Indian Mega Cities

S. Mandal (1)
(1) National Institute of Technology Patna, Department of Architecture, Patna, Bihar, India

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India is experiencing rapid urbanisation, and consequently water demand in urban areas is escalating rapidly. Many megacities of India are located in the central part of the Gangetic plains. The Indian mega cities are amongst the oldest surviving urban centres in the world, with a continuous recorded history dating back to the fifth century BC (Ramchandran 1999). The Indian cities are one of the fastest growing urban centres in the world. Despite the fact that cities are located on the banks of the river, residents are primarily dependent on groundwater aquifers for domestic water supply. Increasing pressure on groundwater supplies is exacerbated by the unregulated construction of deep tube wells, along with the development of apartment complexes to accommodate a mushrooming urban population.  For example, an overall comparison among data sets for the periods 1960-1967, 1977-1986, and 2008-2010 reveals a decline in the level of the deeper aquifer, in the range of 2-10 m (Saha et al 2013), The decline in the piezometric head of the deeper aquifer (13 cm/year) during the previous two decades is another concern (CGWB, 2011). This raises concerns about the security of Indian mega cities water supply, and, hence, the economic vitality and sustainability of the city.

In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, climate change puts further stress on water management and the sustainability of water supplies.  Climate change is already having impacts on temperature. Observed average minimum temperatures (annual temperature Jan-Dec) have increased from 19.00C to 20.50c over the period from 1989 to 2009. These changes are associated with the changes in population, which has increased from 0.5 million in 1971 to 15 million in 2011). Trends in temperature also interact with non-climatic factors, such as the removal of natural vegetation drainage patterns, loss of rainfall absorbing capacity of soil due to urbanisation and the provision of man-made drainage systems. These interactions complicate planning for water supply and demand and increases water insecurity. Moreover, regional annual average monthly maximum temperatures are projected to increase 2.5°C by 2049, based on the ensemble average of 41 CMIP5 models and assumptions of moderate future increases in greenhouse gas emissions (i.e., RCP 4.5; data source: http://climexp.knmi.nl). These projected increases in temperature will put further stress on water supplies, through increased demand for water, and through increased evapotranspiration. In addition, the increasing exposure to climate change, described above, will be superimposed on existing vulnerabilities, which include a lack of groundwater regulation and monitoring. Currently, Indian mega cities lack building by-laws to encourage water conservation. Furthermore, based on informal interviews with water management personnel, it is clear that they lack information on and understanding of projected climate change impacts.

The present study examines the nature of the aquifer system within the urban areas, the temporal changes in the water level and the recharge mechanism of the deeper aquifers. It also looks at associated dialogues and actions related to climate adaptation strategies about water sector in urban areas.

The purpose of this research is to understand the complex dynamics of the water sector and ultimately to suggest the resilience interventions to address these vulnerabilities and tools to support overall resilience, which are needed just to address Indian mega cities non-climate water management concerns, are necessary as a stepping-stone to transformative pathways for addressing the uncertainties associated with our common future under climate change.

18:10

A 'Sustainability Window' of Urban Form

S. Lohrey (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany), F. Creutzig (Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Berlin, Germany)

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A 'Sustainability Window' of Urban Form

S. Lohrey (1) ; F. Creutzig (2)
(1) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Land Use, Infrastructure and Transport, Berlin, Germany; (2) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Land use, transport and infrastructures, Berlin, Germany

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Climate change mitigation becomes an important policy goal for cities worldwide, but local environmental objectives are equally important in policy-making.  This study investigates the impact of urban form and modal shares on air pollution, greenhouse gas emissions, congestion and cost of living by using both empirical data from a number cities, as well as a straightforward urban economics model. Denser urban form would nearly unambiguously mitigate climate change, but also translate into a higher proportion of air pollution affecting citizens. We introduce a window of most sustainable urban form to highlight trade-offs between the externalities of urban form. Only a combination of transportation policies, infrastructure investment and progressive public finance enables the development of cities that meets all sustainability dimensions simultaneously. We identify a minimum urban density of 50 persons/ha to meet sustainability goals.

18:16

Poster presentations and General Discussion

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Poster presentations and General Discussion
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