Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Thursday 9 July - 11:30-13:00 UNESCO Fontenoy - ROOM IV

L3.5 - Integrating Adaptation and Mitigation at the Landscape Scale

Large Parallel Session

Chair(s): E. Nkonya (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C, United States of America)

Lead Convener(s): A. Janethos (Boston University, Boston, United States of America)

11:30

Introduction and Opening remarks

E. Nkonya (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C, United States of America)

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Introduction and Opening remarks
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11:32

Observations and guidance for land-based mitigation

M. Herold (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands)

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Observations and guidance for land-based mitigation

M. Herold (1)
(1) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands

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Progress in observations, and the development of community consensus guidelines and training materials provide underpinnings for planning, implementation and evaluation of mitigations in the forest and agricultural sector. We review the observation needs from multiple stakeholders involved in mitigation and assess how the evolution of dedicated Sourcebook for REDD+ monitoring development Global Observations of Forest Cover and Land Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD) has supported developing countries. Important developments in the context of the Global Climate Observation Systems (GCOS) are increasingly improving the usefulness of monitoring Essential Climate Variables for climate change mitigation purposes.

11:41

Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas

R. Nicholls (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Southampton, United Kingdom)

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Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas

R. Nicholls (1)
(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Southampton, United Kingdom

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This presentation will review the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a strong emphasis on sea-level rise. This is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming and has significant impacts. Importantly, there is a long-term ‘commitment to sea-level rise’ due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore, while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century, compared to unmitigated emissions, the largest benefits may occur in the 22nd century (and beyond). While we cannot avoid some global rise in sea level, we can still avoid significant losses of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with significant long-term benefits to coastal inhabitants. The available results suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered for coastal areas, as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This point has been clearly articulated in coastal impact chapters of the Fourth and Fifth IPCC Assessments. This approach requires the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas which has not been systematically considered to date. Because of the long time constants involved such assessments need to continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of the different policy choices. While the basic science of the commitment was available and presented in the First IPCC Assessment, the policy implications are less appreciated and need wider discussion.
11:50

Indigenous knowledge on ecosystem cycles in Northwestern Amazon: a collaborative research towards climate change assessment in a regional scale

A. Cabalzar (Instituto Socioambiental, São Paulo SP, Brazil)

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Indigenous knowledge on ecosystem cycles in Northwestern Amazon: a collaborative research towards climate change assessment in a regional scale

A. Cabalzar (1)
(1) Instituto Socioambiental, Programa Rio Negro, São Paulo SP, Brazil

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Tropical rainforests are of utter importance for ecological balance and climate stability on global scale. However, as widely reported, there is a growing threat to them and their traditional peoples, deforestation performing between 15 to 20% of the global GHG emissions. The Amazon forest is the largest rainforest in the planet. Indigenous peoples have a key role in the future governance of the Amazon biome, considering that 27,5% of the whole extension of the Amazon basin consists of indigenous territories - in Brazil the percentage is about 22% and in Colombia, it is higher than 50% (http://raisg.socioambiental.org/temas/territorio-indigena). This shows significant interrelations between tropical forests, indigenous peoples and the climate change.

The collaborative research initiative here described aims at joining the efforts of IPCC WG II, as stated in its Summary for Policymakers, to more accurately address adaptation and mitigation solutions, as well as knowledge networks on the regional scale, to face climate change effects. Rather than supporting local population to adapt to climate change, this long term applied research project aims to understand how indigenous peoples are engaged with the environment through their current management practices. The notion of life cycle, integrating both sociocultural and natural aspects, is privileged as an assessment methodology. Indigenous peoples have developed detailed and sophisticated knowledge on the ecological processes, which could improve a more rich and territorialized comprehension of ecosystem transformations and climate change.

Since 2005 a collaborative research has been developed on the ecological and socio-economic cycles in the Northwestern Amazon, a region of about 250000 square kilometers of officially recognized and demarcated indigenous territory at the border Brazil-Colombia. This cross-cultural and interdisciplinary research involves a team of indigenous and non-indigenous researchers, and methodologies aimed at an effective communication and collaboration between the indigenous knowledge and Western science. This initiative aims to: (1) describe the economic-ecological and socio-cultural calendar of indigenous peoples of the Amazon northwest, from observations and recordings done by the indigenous researchers over the years; (2) monitor the annual cycles, identifying and analyzing their patterns and variations, noting possible regional effects of more extensive climate change; (3) as a future perspective, guiding environmental governance policies of indigenous territories considering climate change scenarios; (4) propose ways and methodologies to monitor climate change from the collaboration between indigenous and scientific knowledge within the Amazon basin.

Information and policies related to climate change commonly reach the local communities through biased and inappropriate ways, typically from top to bottom. This collaborative research, which emerged in the context of long-term partnership relations between regional indigenous local organizations, FOIRN (Regional Federation of indigenous organizations) and ISA (Socioenvironmental Institute), who jointly develop several projects in the areas of sustainable community development, capacity building etc.), seeks an exchange of knowledge on annual cycles. It departs from a simple methodology based on daily written logbooks kept by indigenous dwellers (trained as researchers) from various communities along the same river (about 400 km long) and some of its tributaries, usually young adults who search for additional information and interpretations with elder knowledge holders, about the phenomena they are observing. In addition, workshops are made to organize and discuss this material with researchers and advisers of ISA. The main assumption is the recognition that indigenous peoples inhabiting the same region for generations, even centuries, and relying directly on ecological and climatic processes and cycles for their own subsistence activities, are the ones who better know and understand the life cycles.

This research process has accumulated extensive material that is being organized, edited and analyzed. This poster describes the annual calendar of the Eastern Tukanoan peoples, and indicates its relevance in assessing ecosystem and climate change on a regional scale and unfolding possibilities in terms of relevant public policies.

11:59

Effective adaptation strategies and risk reduction to global changes in small farmers in Mesoamerica

A. Solano (Universidad Del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala, Guatemala), E. Castellanos (Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala, Guatemala), C. Tucker (Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States of America), H. Eakin (Arizona State University, Arizona, United States of America), J. Barrera (El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Tapachula, Mexico), R. Diaz (Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Heredia, Costa Rica)

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Effective adaptation strategies and risk reduction to global changes in small farmers in Mesoamerica

A. Solano (1) ; E. Castellanos (1) ; C. Tucker (2) ; H. Eakin (3) ; J. Barrera (4) ; R. Diaz (5)
(1) Universidad Del Valle de Guatemala, Centro de Estudios Ambientales y de Biodiversidad, Guatemala, Guatemala; (2) Indiana University, Anthropology, Bloomington, IN, United States of America; (3) Arizona State University, Arizona, United States of America; (4) El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Tapachula, Mexico; (5) Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Heredia, Costa Rica

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Mesoamerica is a region highly vulnerable to climate change because of its geographic location and topography. Moreover, high levels of poverty and social exclusion increase its population vulnerability. In recent years, the region has been severely affected by extreme weather events with high cost in casualties and economic impacts.  A single event such as Hurricane Stan in 2005 produced an economic loss similar to the GDP increment for Guatemala for that year. Drought events are occurring more frequently and threaten food security for thousands of impoverished families who depend on subsistence agriculture.

Coffee is an export crop that has been most affected in recent years not only by extreme weather events, but also by the economic crisis as a result of price volatility in the international market and more recently by the strong incidence of coffee rust infestation.  Across Mesoamerica, over 4 million people depend directly on coffee production for their livelihoods. Most producers are farmers with limited areas of land and few economic resources but their system of production results in a robust agroforestry system, which provides various environmental services.

Our Global Changes and Coffee research program has been working with small farmers in the region for the last ten years to study the adaptation strategies of families whose livelihoods are threatened by multiple pressures from global changes such as climate change, increase incidence of pests and diseases, and highly volatile international markets for their products.  Our research has focused in four countries in Mesoamerica: Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and Costa Rica through the work of a multidisciplinary research network formed by scientists from the social and natural sciences.

 

In this paper, we will discuss results derived from three objectives of our research program: 1. Studying the perceptions of farmers to identify situations that affect them, 2. Identifying the barriers that limit their efforts to adapt to a multi-stressor environment, and 3. Making recommendations for stakeholders at the local and national level working to support these farmers.

Results show that most farmers who participated in this study perceive that there is a change in climate conditions, resulting in warmer days and changes in the seasonality of rainfall (change in the start and end of the rainy season). The incidence of pests and diseases has also changed: pests are observed more aggressive and more abundant. Still, farmers are mostly concerned about the high volatility of coffee prices in international markets, which of course determine the prices paid to them locally. One important strategy adopted by farmers is diversification both of economic activities and cultivated crops.

Our research shows that there are significant barriers to adaptation among farmers: limited financial resources, insufficient technical support, low availability of key information such as weather forecasts and market variations, and difficulty in keeping local organizations active.

Adaptation should be approached as a two-way process: top-down, with national-level decision-makers developing policies and programs to increase access to financial instruments, and to improve the dissemination of strategic information on global markets and climate variability.  This should be complemented with a bottom-up approach that strengthens existing social capital in the form of local organizations and cooperatives, and increases the flow of knowledge from local communities involved in processes of autonomous adaptation to national government officials and decision makers.

12:08

Impact of country-level policies on smallholder farmer adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

E. Nkonya (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C, United States of America), F. Place (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., United States of America), E. Kato (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., United States of America), M. Majaliwa (Makerere University, Kampala , Uganda)

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Impact of country-level policies on smallholder farmer adaptation to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

E. Nkonya (1) ; F. Place (2) ; E. Kato (2) ; M. Majaliwa (3)
(1) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C, United States of America; (2) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C., United States of America; (3) Makerere University, Kampala , Uganda

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The overarching challenge of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) governments is to design appropriate policies that will increase smallholder farmer uptake of climate-smart land and water management (CSLWM) practices. This study was done to determine impact of policies on farmer adaptation to climate change. The study used a transboundary approach in which communities with comparable biophysical and socio-economic characteristics but residing in two neighboring countries with different policies were used. The study shows that investment in agricultural research and development, strong land & tree tenure, decentralization and investment in smallholder irrigation are the key policies that enhance CSLWM uptake and adaptation to climate change. Additionally policies that provide incentives for tree planting and protection and that give mandate to local communities to manage natural resources are key strategies for enhancing uptake of CSLWM.

The study also found that government policies that provide incentives for long-term land investments are more important than large top-down public investments that ignore the role of farmers in planning and management of such investments. 

12:17

Achieving the Potential Contribution of Planted Forests to Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Change

P. Freer-Smith (Forestry Commission, Farnham, United Kingdom), J.-M. Carnus (INRA, Toulouse, France), M. Tomé (ISA, LISBON, Portugal), P. Tim (Scion, Rotorua, New Zealand), T. Fox (Virginia Institute of Technology, Virginia, United States of America), W. Kollert (FAO of the United Nations, Rome, Italy), C. Orazio (EFI, cestas, France), J. Morison (Forest Research, Farnham, United Kingdom)

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Achieving the Potential Contribution of Planted Forests to Adaptation to and Mitigation of Climate Change

P. Freer-Smith (1) ; JM. Carnus (2) ; M. Tomé (3) ; P. Tim (4) ; T. Fox (5) ; W. Kollert (6) ; C. Orazio (7) ; J. Morison (8)
(1) Forestry Commission, Forest research, Farnham, United Kingdom; (2) INRA, Department of forest, grassland and freshwater ecology, Toulouse, France; (3) ISA, LISBON, Portugal; (4) Scion, Rotorua, New Zealand; (5) Virginia Institute of Technology, Forestry, Virginia, United States of America; (6) FAO of the United Nations, Forestry, Rome, Italy; (7) EFI, EFIATLANTIC, cestas, France; (8) Forest Research, Centre for sustainable forestry and climate change, Farnham, United Kingdom

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Globally, production and provision of ecosystem goods and services from planted forests are being altered by climate change. This poses new challenges to forest policy makers, local communities, forest managers and the forest-based industries which depend increasingly on wood and biomass resources from planted forests. Planted forests can also be managed to make a major contribution to removal of cardon from the atmosphere and hence the mitigation of climate change. Climate change adaptation strategies and recommendations for sustainable forest management have been developed at global or regional scales for planted forests in various environmental and socio-economic contexts, but these need to be complemented and further elaborated for implementation at local scales in close interaction with regional, national and local stakeholders. We will present territorial foresight approaches, landscape simulation tools, carbon budgeting and best practice case studies from planted forests in various temperate regions around the world. These can provide useful models and demonstrators on which to base management options to achieve effective future adaptation to and mitigation of climate change.

12:26

Using seasonal forecasts to improve small farmers' resilience and adaptation to climate change and food security in Yatenga northern Burkina Faso

L. Some (Institut de l'environnement et de recherches agricoles, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)

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Using seasonal forecasts to improve small farmers' resilience and adaptation to climate change and food security in Yatenga northern Burkina Faso

L. Some (1)
(1) Institut de l'environnement et de recherches agricoles, Gestion des ressources natutelles, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

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Agriculture in the Sahel is strongly dependent on rainfall, hence the urgent need to disseminate appropriate seasonal climate forecasts. Since 1998, researchers in several  international and regional forecast centers help of experts from national meteorological services strive to provide answers. In June 2014, these predictions were compared with indigenous knowledge based on observations of certain signs, made by people in 11 villages of the CCAFS research  site in Yatenga, Burkina Faso. These two types of prediction converged and gave a season rainfall deficit trend compared to the average observed over the last thirty years. Ten farm managers in each of these villages, which produce cowpeas and / or sesame each received a radio to monitor weather information broadcast daily in local language and in French by a community radio station covering the area well. Yield squares were placed in their fields to an assessment of production. Meanwhile, ten farmers in six villages considered as control were also selected and their fields, followed in the same conditions as above. The controls did not receive information on seasonal climate forecasts through the project and have not been endowed with radios. The results show excess rainfall totals to normal in the region, but badly distributed in time and space, causing dry spells in some localities. Preliminary agronomic results do not show significant differences between the two types of monitoring operations.

 Key words: Productivity, sesame cowpea, climate forecasting, Yatenga, Burkina Faso

12:35

Joint public and private finance for ecosystem-based adaptation - an example from nature-based coastal protection in Indonesia

K. Meijer (Deltares, Delft, Netherlands)

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Joint public and private finance for ecosystem-based adaptation - an example from nature-based coastal protection in Indonesia

K. Meijer (1)
(1) Deltares, Scenarios and Policy Analysis, Delft, Netherlands

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Authors:

Karen Meijer, German Development Institute/ Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik, Germany and Deltares, The Netherlands

Bregje van Wesenbeeck, Deltares, The Netherlands.

 

Measures to adapt to climate change can have negative environmental impacts. For example, coastal flood protection walls prevent the influx of sediment and the natural build-up of coastal areas, while increased fresh water storage in reservoirs can lead to fragmentation of river ecosystems. However, adaptation can also be done with less impact on the environment, for example by restoring mangrove forests to protect against floods. Such adaptation strategies that make use of the natural functioning of ecosystem processes are referred to as ecosystem-based adaptation. Ecosystem-based adaptation can therefore be assumed not to have negative environmental impacts but rather to strengthen or expand ecosystems and protect biodiversity.

Developing countries may require financial support to adapt to the impacts of climate change. The international community has committed to providing 100 billion USD/year from 2020 to support climate change mitigation and adaptation in developing countries. With roughly half the amount to be spent on adaptation, large financial flows can be expected in the coming decades to support the implementation of adaptation projects in developing countries. Funds should come from both public and private sources; public funds should be used to ‘leverage’ private sector funds. Through the provision of finance, investors and donors may steer how adaptation is implemented. The question this paper addresses is whether ecosystem-based adaptation is, or can be made, as attractive to investors and donors as conventional adaptation.

This paper starts with a discussion of the revenue-generating potential of ecosystem-based and conventional adaptation alternatives for different types of climate impacts. Subsequently, we analyze the case of nature-based flood protection in Indonesia, which is currently being implemented as an alternative for concrete breakwaters that have been used so far. We discuss economic benefits and (financial) incentives related to both options. We pay specific attention to the financial aspects of the nature-based flood defense, which is financed through a combination of international and national public, and international private funds. Based on the analysis of the case we provide suggestions for international public funds to further promote ecosystem-based adaptation solutions and to leverage private sector finance for this purpose, and provide a first check regarding to what extent such solutions are actively or passively promoted by a selection of current funds.

 

12:44

Global change adaptation in the Llobregat basin: methodology and tool for medium and long term water resources planning

L. Pouget, (cetaqua, Cornellà, Barcelona, Spain), A. Cabello (cetaqua, Cornellà, Barcelona, Spain)

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Global change adaptation in the Llobregat basin: methodology and tool for medium and long term water resources planning

L. Pouget, (1) ; A. Cabello (1)
(1) cetaqua, Sustainability department, Cornellà, Barcelona, Spain

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In recent years, water resources management has been facing new challenges due to increasing changes and their associated uncertainties, such as climate, water demand or land use. In this context, the Water Change project developed a methodology and a tool which can provide support to decision makers in assessing potential future impact of global change on water resources and give guidance as to the effectiveness of possible strategies of adaptation. 

The methodology focuses on the creation of global change scenarios, the analysis of impacts and the definition of adaptation strategies based on a cost-benefit analysis. The tool developed (Water Change Modelling System or WCMS) is a software-based system with a modular approach, linking different models (hydrological, water management and water quality models).  The tool enables users to quantify the impacts of global change scenarios and test adaptation measures.

The methodology and tool were applied to the Llobregat river basin, a highly populated catchment under increasing water stress in the North-East of Spain. Impacts of global change scenarios on water supply were assessed for different time horizons and optimum adaptation strategies in terms of cost-benefit were proposed.

The user is free to choose the models to be run in the tool, and different scenarios of global change can be used as inputs, to assess the impacts on water resources (in terms of quality and quantity). Finally adaptation measures can be implemented to test their effectiveness. Including adaptation to global change in water resources management planning is quite challenging given the uncertainty of future predictions in terms of demand, climate and land use. The adaptation strategies chosen must minimise the risk at an affordable cost, taking into account all the scenarios which could occur at a given time horizon.

As mentioned in the Water Framework Directive, water management plans will have to include adaptation strategies taking into account the impacts of climate change on the water sector. In this context, the methodology and tool developed aim to provide support to decision makers in water management: The tool can be used in any basin and the methodology can be applied in order to evaluate different adaptation strategies, in terms of deficit reduction and costs involved. Thus water and basin agencies are likely to be interested in the final product, and they could be identified through associations such as the INBO (International Network of Basin Organisation).

For the tested case study, a total of 65 scenarios of global change were developed and run using the WCMS. The possible future impacts on water resources and on the water supply of the basin were obtained and the results show the range of impacts increases with time. According to the projections, in 2030 the deficit may reach 10% of the demand while in 2100 the deficit could reach 30% of the demand.

As a response to the impact foreseen different adaptation strategies which could be implemented in the Llobregat River Basin were proposed and assessed. Specific adaptation measures were selected to be applied to the Llobregat river basin. Each adaptation strategy was studied in detail and the amount of water gained from its application and the price of implementation were identified, with the aim to avoid water deficit at the lowest costs.

Each of these strategies was tested for several future scenarios with the aim to know which part of the drought damage has been effectively avoided and which cost (investment and operation of the measures) should be assumed. The inclusion of these alternatives into the tool and the calculation of their costs and benefits provided insight for decision-makers about how much adaptation is needed with respect to the uncertainty of future global change scenarios.

In the case of the Llobregat River Basin, the results showed benefits are significantly higher than costs and thus adaptation to Global Change is desirable. Regarding which strategy should be chosen, the decision-maker can apply different selection criteria, combining the economic values with other indicators of impact.

12:53

Q&A session

E. Nkonya (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington D.C, United States of America)

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Q&A session
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