Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Wednesday 8 July - 15:00-16:30 UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34

2205 - Multi-sectoral analysis of risks to climate change (hot spots) at 2 °C warming

Parallel Session

Lead Convener(s): D. Jacob (HZG/Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany), S. Kovats (London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom)

Convener(s): P. Watkiss (PWA, London, United Kingdom)

15:00

Cross-sectoral analysis in IMPACT2C and IPCC AR5 Europe Chapter

D. Jacob (HZG/Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany)

Abstract details
Cross-sectoral analysis in IMPACT2C and IPCC AR5 Europe Chapter

D. Jacob (1)
(1) HZG/Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany

Abstract content

Political discussions on the European goal to limit global warming to 2°C relative to pre-industrial levels, needs to be informed by the best available science on projected impacts and possible benefits.

Here we’ll provide a recent update of the scientific evidence on which regional changes and associated impacts will be induced by 2 °C global warming.

First, original insights and findings from the FP7 project IMPACT2C will be presented and discussed. IMPACT2C identifies and quantifies the impacts and most appropriate response strategies of a 2oC global warming.  IMPACT2C analyses a number of major cross-sectoral issues for Europe and three selected vulnerable regions: Bangladesh, Africa (Nile and Niger basins) and the Maldives

The IMPACT2C project adopts a clear and logical structure within climate- and impact-modelling, vulnerabilities, risks and economic costs. Detailed climate change scenarios are provided and tailored to the needs of various sectors. Here the information from the new EURO-CORDEX simulations will be presented. Furthermore, selected innovative methods (e.g. ensemble model selection which represent the entire ensemble's spread) and tools (e.g. web atlas) will be shown.

On the pan-European level this research is also linked to the Europe-Chapter from AR5, IPCC, which assesses evidence of climate change in a regional chapter and therefore could describe impacts across sectors and identify interactions between impacts. Regional information on climate, vulnerability and adaptation strategies are also major topics. The cross-sectoral decision making which is required to address climate change is reviewed in the Chapter. The main findings of the Europe chapter of WG II IPCC AR5 will be presented.

15:30

Projected changes in drought at 4C and 2C of global warming: Impact of mitigation on regional drought hotspots

J. Syktus (University fo Queensland, Brisbane, Australia), C. Mcalpine (University fo Queensland, Brisbane, Australia)

Abstract details
Projected changes in drought at 4C and 2C of global warming: Impact of mitigation on regional drought hotspots

J. Syktus () ; C. Mcalpine (1)
(1) University fo Queensland, School of geography, planninga nd environmental management, Brisbane, Australia

Abstract content

We use the CMIP5 data from historical and RCP8.5 simulations to complete a multi-model assessment of changes in regional patterns of warming and precipitation changes at 4oC and 2oC of global warming. Inter-model agreement of projected changes in magnitude and sign of annual and seasonal precipitation has been calculated to illustrate the patterns of change in hydrological cycle. In addition projected changes in precipitation have been used to derive a meteorological drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).

Analysis of multi-model distribution of SPI during the 21st Century show progressive increase in frequency of wet events in high-to mid-latitudes and increased frequency of droughts over large parts of Australia, Africa, south-east Asia, southern Europe, the Middle East and Northern and Southern Americas. Using this data we identified a key hotspot with extreme drought (SPI<-2) and computed regional statistics of drought frequencies at 4oC and 2oC in order to illustrate the regional benefits of climate mitigation. In addition we have completed regional analysis of join distribution of precipitation and temperature changes at 4oC and 2oC using standardized precipitation and standardized temperature index. We will also show results of analysis focusing on hemispheric contrast in SPI drought distribution during the 21st Century.

15:45

Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

G. Xiao-Jun (Center for Earth System Science,Tsinghua University, Beijing, China), L. Yong (Center for Earth System Science,Tsinghua University, Beijing, China), H. Jian-Bin (Center for Earth System Science,Tsinghua University, Beijing, China), Z. Zong-Ci (Center for Earth System Science,Tsinghua University, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Projection of Heat Waves over China under Different Global Warming Targets

G. Xiao-Jun (1) ; L. Yong (1) ; H. Jian-Bin (1) ; Z. Zong-Ci (1)
(1) Center for Earth System Science,Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Abstract content

Global warming targets, which are determined in terms of global mean temperature increases relative to pre-industrial temperature levels, have been one of the heated issues recently. And the climate change (especially climate extremes) and its impacts under different targets have been paid extensive concerns. In this study,evaluation and projection of heat waves in China were carried out by twelve CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). In evaluating the ability of GCMs, a new daily observed gridded dataset CN05.1 (0.5°×0.5°) was also used. And four indices (heat waves frequency, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days) were adopted to analyze the heat waves.

Compared with the observations, the twelve GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) have a remarkable capacity of reproducing the spatial and temporal characteristics of heat waves. The time correlation coefficients between MME and the observation results can all reach 0.01 significant levels. Based on the projection data of twelve GCMs, both the median year of crossing 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets and the corresponding climate change over China were analyzed under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show that when the global mean surface air temperature rise to different targets with respect to the pre-industrial times (1861-1880), the frequency and intensity of heat waves will increase dramatically.

To take the high emission scenario RCP8.5 as an example, under the RCP8.5 scenario, the warming rate over China is stronger than that over the globe, the temperature rise(median year) over China projected by MME are 1.82°C(2023), 2.48°C(2038), 3.23°C(2049), 3.93°C(2059), 4.59°C(2069), 5.29°C(2079) and 5.97°C(2088) under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C global warming targets, respectively. With the increase of the global warming targets, the difference between global and China's temperature rise increases gradually. The linear trends of regional mean heat waves number, longest heat waves duration, heat waves days and high temperature days over China are 0.9 times/°C, 2.7days/°C, 8.0 days/°C and 7.2days/°C with the enhancement of global warming targets.It is noteworthy that the increase rate of heat waves indices under the latter global warming target relative to the former one is expected to decrease sharply as the global mean temperature rise increases from 2.5°C to 3°C.

For example,the increase rates of longest heat waves duration under 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C, 4.5°C and 5°C global warming targets are 45.77 %, 37.37%, 22.91%, 27.51%, 16.60%, 24.55% and 25.64 % , in relation to that under 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C and 4.5°C target respectively. Moreover,the areas with severe heat waves occurring display a vast expansion correspondingly.For example, the percentage of area with annual longest heat waves duration longer than 12 days will increase from 0.27% under a 2°C target to about 42.75% under a 5°C target. The percentage of area with annual heat waves days more than 30 days will increase from 0.45% under a 2°C target to about 49.64% under a 5°C target.

16:00

Impacts of a global 2 degrees C climate change upon European air quality

G. Lacressonnière (IPSL/LISA, Créteil, France), M. Engardt (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden), M. Gauss (EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway), L. Watson (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France), C. Andersson (SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden), M. Beekmann (LISA, CNRS/INSU, Créteil, France), A. Colette (INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France), G. Foret (IPSL/LISA, Créteil, France), B. Josse (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France), V. Marécal (CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France), A. Nyiri (EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway), G. Siour (IPSL/LISA, Créteil, France), S. Sobolowski (Uni Research, the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway), R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France)

Abstract details
Impacts of a global 2 degrees C climate change upon European air quality

G. Lacressonnière (1) ; M. Engardt (2) ; M. Gauss (3) ; L. Watson (4) ; C. Andersson (5) ; M. Beekmann (6) ; A. Colette (7) ; G. Foret (1) ; B. Josse (4) ; V. Marécal (4) ; A. Nyiri (3) ; G. Siour (1) ; S. Sobolowski (8) ; R. Vautard (9)
(1) IPSL/LISA, Créteil, France; (2) Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; (3) EMEP MSC-W, Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Bergen, Norway; (4) CNRM-GAME, Météo-France and CNRS, Toulouse, France; (5) SMHI, Norrkoping, Sweden; (6) LISA, CNRS/INSU, Créteil, France; (7) INERIS, Verneuil-en-Halatte, France; (8) Uni Research, the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway; (9) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France

Abstract content

Several policy statements, including the 2009 Copenhagen Accord, stated that global temperature rise should be held below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels in order to limit the impacts of climate change. In this context, the impacts of 2-degree increase in temperature have been analyzed in the European project IMPACT2C. The objective of the present study is to evaluate how these changes will have an impact on European air quality and will potentially affect human health, using four offline atmospheric chemistry transport models. The first step was to perform air quality simulations for the current climate, using two sets of meteorological forcings for each model: reanalysis of past observation data and global climate model output. The differences between the simulations allow to evaluate how global climate models modify climate hindcast by boundary conditions inputs. Among others, we analyze whether the chemical composition of PM is affected by the use of climate models. We then investigate the contributions of the changes in meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, boundary layer height, etc) on surface primary and secondary compounds of PM (Lacressonnière et al., under review). For the future scenarios, the time period that corresponds to a 2-degree C global warming, such as predicted from climate simulations using RCP4.5 scenario, was run; this time period varies depending on which global climate model is used. We separately calculate the effects of climate change and emission reduction scenarios, and show that the fate of European air pollution is primarily controlled by emission reductions. A 2-degree C global warming will not hinder beneficial effects of air quality legislation, albeit inducing small changes in ozone and particulate matter changes. We then evaluate the uncertainty associated to the air quality projection under regional climate change, with a focus on annual PM2.5 and SOMO35, two indicators commonly used for health assessments (Lacressonnière et al., under preparation). We assess the robustness/uncertainty of model predictions, by comparing the inter-model spread to the climate change signals. Our results highlight that the inter-model variability is mainly due to differences in regional climate projections, affecting several meteorological parameters, which are crucial for air quality. Beyond the model uncertainty, climate penalty or benefit have been made evident over different European areas. The use of four different models, and additional uncertainty evaluations, make our study one of the most comprehensive ones up to date to assess the impact of regional climate change on air quality and health.

Lacressonnière et al., Impact of climate drivers on air quality, focus on European aerosol concentrations, Atmospheric Environment, under review

Lacressonnière et al., Uncertainty analysis associated to future air quality projections under regional climate change, under preparation

16:15

Studying the climate change impact at 2 degree warming on Water Resources for the island of Crete: A cross-sectoral approach

A. Koutroulis (Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece), M. Grillakis (Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece), I. Tsanis (McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada)

Abstract details
Studying the climate change impact at 2 degree warming on Water Resources for the island of Crete: A cross-sectoral approach

I. Tsanis (1) ; A. Koutroulis (2) ; M. Grillakis (2)
(1) McMaster University, Civil Engineering, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada; (2) Technical University of Crete, School of environmental engineering, Chania, Greece

Abstract content

Ensemble pan-European projections under a 2°C global warming relative to preindustrial period reveal a more intense warming in south Eastern Europe by up to +3°C indicating that impacts of climate change will fall disproportionately on certain regions. The Mediterranean is projected as one of the most vulnerable areas to climatic and anthropogenic changes with decreasing rainfall trends and a continual gradual warming leading to a progressive decline in the average stream flow. Many Mediterranean regions are currently experiencing high to severe water stress induced by human and climate drivers. Changes in average climate conditions will increase this stress notably because of a 30–50% decline in freshwater resources. For small island states, where accessibility to freshwater resources is limited the impact will be more pronounced. Here we use a generalized cross-sectoral framework to assess the impact of climatic and socioeconomic futures on the water resources of an Eastern Mediterranean island. Crete, the fifth largest Mediterranean island covers more than 6% of Greece with an area over 8,000 square km. Total water use is estimated to be about 420 million cubic meters (6.3% of total precipitation). The majority of the water use (over 80%) is used for irrigation while the rest is distributed to other uses such as domestic, tourist, and industrial uses. A set of representative regional climate models simulations from the ENSEMBLES and EURO-CORDEX initiative driven by different RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, A1B and RCP8.5 GCMs were used to form a comparable set of results and a useful basis for the assessment of uncertainties related to impacts of 2 degrees  warming and above. A generalized framework of a cross-sectoral water resources analysis was developed in collaboration with the local water authority exploring and costing adaptation measures associated with a set of socioeconomic pathways (SSPs).  Transient hydrological modeling was performed to describe the projected hydro-climatological regime and water availability for each warming level. The robust signal of less precipitation and higher temperatures that is projected by climate simulations results to a severe decrease of local water resources. Adaptation to water scarcity includes a group of measures ranging from soft measures to infrastructure investments for achieving safe and secure water futures.