Our Common Future Under Climate Change

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France

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Wednesday 8 July - 15:00-19:00 UPMC Jussieu - Posters (Block 24)

Posters (list of concerned Posters available here)

Poster

Impact of global SST gradients on the Mediterranean runoff changes across the Plio-Pleistocene transition

F. Colleoni (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy), A. Cherchi, (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy), S. Masina, (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy), C. Brierley, (University College of London, London, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Impact of global SST gradients on the Mediterranean runoff changes across the Plio-Pleistocene transition

F. Colleoni (1) ; A. Cherchi, (1) ; S. Masina, (1) ; C. Brierley, (2)
(1) Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; (2) University College of London, Department of Geography, London, United Kingdom

Abstract content

This work explores the impact of the development of global meridional and zonal SST gradients on the Mediterranean runoff variability during the Plio-Pleistocene transition, about 3 Ma. By means of a stand-alone atmospheric general circulation model, we simulate the separate impact of extra-tropical and equatorial SST cooling on the Mediterranean runoff. Results show that total annual mean Pliocene Mediterranean runoff is about 40\% larger than during the pre-industrial period due to more increased extra-tropical specific humidity. As a consequence of a weakened and extended Hadley cell, Pliocene northwest Africa hydrological network produces a discharge 30 times larger than today. Our results support the conclusion that during the Pliocene, the Mediterranean water deficit was more reduced than today due to a larger river discharge. While the cooling of equatorial SST does not imply significant changes on the Pliocene Mediterranean hydrological budget, the extra-tropical SST cooling increases the water deficit due to a decrease in precipitation and runoff and river discharge from this area reduces to pre-industrial level. From our simulations there are evidence that the modern atmospheric circulation over the Mediterranean started to develop at least 3 Ma. The main teleconnections acting upon the Mediterranean area, i.e. the North Atlantic Oscillation during winter and the ``monsoon-desert'' mechanism during summer are already at work in our Pliocene simulations. Finally, our results also suggest that in a climate state significantly warmer than today, changes of the Hadley circulation could potentially lead to increased in water resources in northwest Africa.

Vulnerability of North Eastern region of India - a global biodiversity hotspot - due to anthropogenic threats and climate change process

S. Baruah (Independent Consultant, Guwahati, Assam, India), N. Hazarika (State Project Officer GOI-UNDP programme, , Guwahati, India), K. Mazumdar (Programme Officer, Response, Guwahati, India)

Abstract details
Vulnerability of North Eastern region of India - a global biodiversity hotspot - due to anthropogenic threats and climate change process

S. Baruah (1) ; N. Hazarika (2) ; K. Mazumdar (3)
(1) Independent Consultant, Guwahati, Assam, India; (2) State Project Officer GOI-UNDP programme, , Assam state disaster management authority, Guwahati, India; (3) Programme Officer, Response, Assam state disaster management authority, Guwahati, India

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Climate change poses major threats to all levels of biodiversity from genes to landscapes while local level changes within landscape affects its composition and abundance. The North Eastern region (here after referred as ‘NER’) India refers to the easternmost region of India consisting of the contiguous eight sister states. The region is biogeographically and culturally distinct from rest of India and has strong ethnic and cultural ties with East Asia and Southeast Asia. The NER of India is expected to be greatly affected by climate change as well as increasing anthropogenic threats on biodiversity because of their geo-ecological fragility, strategic location vis-à-vis the Eastern Himalayan landscape,trans-boundary river basins and the inherent socio-economic instabilities. 

Analysis of forest cover statistics of NER of India for last twenty years that is from 1991 to 2011, reveals that there was an overall growth of forest cover of 1274 KM2 .in the region. But individual state level data reflects loss of forest cover in majority of the states during the first decade (1991-2001) , the state of Nagaland being the highest (-976 KM2) followed by Mizoram(-908 KM2), Manipur (-732KM2)and Arunachal (-709KM2) and Meghalaya (-273KM2). Seismically NER is one of the six most active regions of the world, the other five being Mexico, Taiwan, California, Japan and Turkey. The region has experienced 18 large earthquakes (M 􀁴7) during the last hundred years including the great earthquakes of Shillong (1897, M=8.7) and Assam-Tibet border (1950, M=8.7) .

The state of Assam in NE India represents highly flood-prone region characterized by severe hazards of floods. With more than 40 percent of its land surface susceptible to flood damage, the total flood prone area in the Brahmaputra valley is about 3.2 Mha. The Brahmaputra valley had experienced major floods in 1954, 1962, 1966, 1972, 1974, 1978, 1983, 1986, 1988, 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2004. According to census statistics 1991-2011 the population in all the states grew by approximately 30 percent between first decade and continued with 20 percent in the next decade. This rapid increase in population density in the region is responsible for large scale destruction and alteration of forest areas, overexploitation of biodiversity resources. While reviewing the agricultural statistics for 17 years period that is 1989-2006 ,it has been observed that there is decrease of gross cropped area in many states particularly the Assam being the highest with about 60% followed by Tripura with about 45% , Arunachal Pradesh 25% and Manipur 10% This is reflected in the general trend of decrease in par capita availability of agricultural land . The trend of mean rain fall activities observed in the region for four decades from the year 1968 to 2008 which shows distinct local variations. During Pre monsoon season from 1990 to 2008 there is a decreasing trend of rainfall with 1996 and 2008 is lowest. This indicates local dry conditions or draught. Similarly 1977 and 2001 shows the very high rain fall indicating more storms, floods and associated disasters. In monsoon season there is a general trend of high rainfall activities with 1988, 2005 being highest indicating major floods in the region and crop and property damage. The trend of atmospheric temperature of the region for the pre monsoon season is found to be going high during from the year 1990 to 2008 indicating prolonged warmer period coupled with decreasing rain fall observed during the season. Again in the monsoon it continues with the rising trend over the past decades clearing indicating increasing warming process may be with response to global warming process. Looking at the data of the buildup areas for the years 1989 and 2006 ,there is enormous rise in build up area due to urbanization in all the NER states. The exploration of fossil fuels viz oil, gas and coal industries in the region is increasing the air, water and land pollution and thereby increasing the vulnerabilities of the biodiversity and ecosystems from these anthropogenic activities coupled with the climate change process.

 

 

 

 

Mid-Holocene drought impact on the active Lazaun rock glacier in the Italian Alps

J. N. Haas (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), B. Dietre (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), M. Hirnsperger (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), D. Bressan (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), C. Walser (University of Bamberg, Bamberg, Germany), I. Hajdas (ETH Zuerich, Zuerich, Switzerland), K. Lang (Office for Geology and Building materials testing, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Italy, Bolzano, Italy), V. Mair (Office for Geology and Building materials testing, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Italy, Bolzano, Italy), U. Nickus (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), D. Reidl (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), H. Thies (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), D. Tonidandel (Office for Geology and Building materials testing, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Italy, Bolzano, Italy), K. Krainer (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria)

Abstract details
Mid-Holocene drought impact on the active Lazaun rock glacier in the Italian Alps

JN. Haas (1) ; B. Dietre (1) ; M. Hirnsperger (2) ; D. Bressan (2) ; C. Walser (3) ; I. Hajdas (4) ; K. Lang (5) ; V. Mair (5) ; U. Nickus (6) ; D. Reidl (1) ; H. Thies (7) ; D. Tonidandel (5) ; K. Krainer (2)
(1) University of Innsbruck, Botany, Innsbruck, Austria; (2) University of Innsbruck, Geology, Innsbruck, Austria; (3) University of Bamberg, Archaeology, Bamberg, Germany; (4) ETH Zuerich, Physics, Zuerich, Switzerland; (5) Office for Geology and Building materials testing, Autonomous Province of Bolzano, Italy, Bolzano, Italy; (6) University of Innsbruck, Meteorology, Innsbruck, Austria; (7) University of Innsbruck, Ecology, Innsbruck, Austria

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The study of a 40 m-long ice and debris core from the rock glacier Lazaun in the southern Ötztal Alps (South Tyrol, Italy) revealed a mid-Holocene drought impact around 4000 cal. BP. Plant macrofossils embedded in the ice indicated the overall formation of the rock glacier around 10’300 cal. BP with two superimposed rock glacier lobes persisting active since then. The inferred age-depth model implied very stable sedimentation conditions for snow, ice and rock debris throughout the Holocene, with the exception of a mid-Holocene drought event. This multi-centennial drought period around 4000 cal. BP was probably related to reduced snow accumulation, prevailing warm climate, and a general Mediterranean/Central European climatic reorganization. The palaeoecological study of the ice/debris samples and the quantification of pollen, cryptogam spores, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal particles as well as plant and animal macrofossils allowed tracing the former climatically and anthropogenically induced vegetation changes at alpine altitudes (above 2600 m a.s.l.).

Monsoonal changes recorded by Lake Chad sedimentary archives during the Neolithic

F. Sylvestre (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), P. Amaral (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), P. Deschamps, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), N. Waldmann, (University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel), K. Tachikawa, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), D. Delanghe, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), N. Thouveny, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), E. Bard, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), G. Menot, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), F. Rostek, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), M. Garcia, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), J.-C. Mazur, (Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Aix-en-Provence, France), J.-C. Doumnang, (University of N’Djamena, N'Djamena, Chad)

Abstract details
Monsoonal changes recorded by Lake Chad sedimentary archives during the Neolithic

F. Sylvestre (1) ; P. Amaral (1) ; P. Deschamps, (1) ; N. Waldmann, (2) ; K. Tachikawa, (1) ; D. Delanghe, (1) ; N. Thouveny, (1) ; E. Bard, (1) ; G. Menot, (1) ; F. Rostek, (1) ; M. Garcia, (1) ; JC. Mazur, (1) ; JC. Doumnang, (3)
(1) Aix-Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Collège de France, Cerege, Aix-en-Provence, France; (2) University of Haifa, Department of marine geosciences, Haifa, Israel; (3) University of N’Djamena, Department of geology, N'Djamena, Chad

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During the last 20,000 years, Northern Africa experienced dramatic climatic and subsequent environmental changes, characterized by a succession of contrasted period. It is now well established that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was dryer followed by a wetter middle Holocene, punctuated by dry events. The numerous Holocene paleolake records document a fairly consistent pattern of a moister early-Holocene resulting in a “Green Sahara” followed by a general aridification ca. 5000 years ago, which still persist today.

However, despite the number of detailed reconstructions increasing during the last decades, a coherent history of the climatic changes has not been yet elucidating. Pronounced differences in the apparent timing and amplitude of these hydrological changes inferred from truncated outcrops point to regional climatic variability fluctuations as well as site-specific influences which could biased the evolution of water balance. Increasing the numbers of observations and reconstruction contribute to arise regional patterns, and rend complex the identification of the climatic signal.

In this paleoclimatic history, one of the main attractive phase, still debated, is the end of the mid-holocene humid period. The increasingly arid conditions after 5,000 years forced Neolithic societies to improve their organization in order to optimize natural resources, in particular freshwater supplies, and help to explain the rise of civilizations that flourished along main rivers such as Nile, Euphrate or Indus. This climatic change corresponds in time with the gradual modulation of the insolation, whereas data from marine records evidenced that environmental changes could be more rapid and abrupt than expected by the sinusoidal insolation curve. But on the continent, the data tell us another history. Lake Yoa record collected in the northern Chad in Sahara desert show that vegetation and dust flux changed gradually, in concert with the slowly weakening monsoon.

In this context, we present new records with original data depicting past tropical hydroclimate history since the LGM from the key, but yet poorly investigated, Lake Chad. In Northern Africa, Lake Chad appeared as one of the main emblematic site during this period of time. Reaching 10 times its surface area, e.g. 340,000 km2 compared to today, e.g. 14,000 km2, it was one of the main water tower during this period. Almost exclusively fed by the Chari-Logone river system that originates from the wet tropics, where precipitation is directly controlled by the West African Monsoon and the seasonal migration of the ITCZ, this particular configuration makes this terminal lake a very sensitive indicator of climate and the environment evolution of north-central Africa at various time-scales. Then, here we present continuous records from past environmental and climatic changes during the last 20,000 years. We highlight coherent monsoonal changes, compared with those from the closest oceanic basins, e.g. tropical Atlantic and Indian oceans, as well as at the scale of the continental tropical belt. Moreover, drastic hydrological changes are recorded, occurring in few centuries, matching with North Atlantic cold spells indicating that Northern African climate could switch from a state to another, quickly, which drive in consequence, ecosystem and human adaptations.

Orbital, solar, volcanic and anthropogenic forcings in the Holocene glacier fluctuations

O. Solomina (Institute of Geography RAS, Moscow, Russia), R. Bradley (University of Massachusetts, Amherst, United States of America), D. Hodgson (British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom), S. Ivy-Ochs (Institute of Particle Physics, Zurich, Switzerland), V. Jomelli (Cnrs, Meudon, France), A. Mackintosh (Victoria University Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand), A. Nesje (University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway), L. Owen (University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, United States of America), H. Wanner (Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland), G. Wiles (The College of Wooster, Wooster, United States of America), N. Young (Columbia University, Palisades, United States of America)

Abstract details
Orbital, solar, volcanic and anthropogenic forcings in the Holocene glacier fluctuations

O. Solomina (1) ; R. Bradley (2) ; D. Hodgson (3) ; S. Ivy-Ochs (4) ; V. Jomelli (5) ; A. Mackintosh (6) ; A. Nesje (7) ; L. Owen (8) ; H. Wanner (9) ; G. Wiles (10) ; N. Young (11)
(1) Institute of Geography RAS, Glaciology, Moscow, Russia; (2) University of Massachusetts, Department of geosciences, Amherst, United States of America; (3) British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom; (4) Institute of Particle Physics, Zurich, Switzerland; (5) Cnrs, Physical geography, Meudon, France; (6) Victoria University Wellington, Antarctic research centre, Wellington, New Zealand; (7) University of Bergen, Department of earth science, Bergen, Norway; (8) University of Cincinnati, Department of geology, Cincinnati, United States of America; (9) Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland; (10) The College of Wooster, Department of geology,, Wooster, United States of America; (11) Columbia University, Lamont-doherty earth observatory, Palisades, United States of America

Abstract content

Glacier fluctuations integrate both temperature and precipitation, and these signals are often a challenge to separate. However, in the end of 20th-early 21th centuries the glaciers demonstrate a coherent pattern of uniform retreat, despite the great difference in their morphology, sizes, location and other characteristics. For our global overview of Holocene glacier fluctuations we used 189 time series of glacier fluctuations based on 14C, TCN, OSL, tree rings, sediments from proglacial lakes, and speleothems. We compared the glacier variations with orbital, solar and volcanic forcings and considered the scale and the rate of modern glacier retreat in the context of Holocene natural variability.  The general trends of Holocene glacier fluctuations in the extra-tropical areas of the Northern Hemisphere are broadly coherent and agree with the dynamics of the Northern and mountain tree lines. Overall summer temperature, forced by orbitally-controlled insolation, is the most probable driver of increasingly more expansive advances through the Holocene in these regions. In the Southern Hemisphere, glaciers in New Zealand appear to follow the orbital trend, which is opposite to the Northern Hemisphere (less expansive advances through the Holocene). Glacier fluctuations in monsoonal Asia and in Southern South America generally do not correlate with the orbital trends and instead responding to more high resolution forcings in these regions. Glacier advances during Neoglacial clustered at 4.4-4.2, 3.8-3.4, 3.3-2.8, 2.6, 2.3-2.1, 1.5-1.4, 1.2-1.0, 0.7-0.5 ka BP correspond to general coolings in the North Atlantic. Some of these episodes coincide with multidecadal periods of low solar activity, but it is unclear what mechanism might link small changes in irradiance to widespread glacier fluctuations. One cluster of glacier advances at 1.7-1.6 ka does not fit this pattern and probably corresponds to a very strong volcanic eruption (232 CE). Thus, no single driving mechanism explains all ice expansions. The rate and the global character of glacier retreat in the 20th-early 21st centuries appears to be unusual in the context of Holocene glacier changes, however retreating glaciers in most regions are still more extensive today than they were in the Early and/or Mid-Holocene. Since contemporary retreat is occurring during an interval of orbital forcing that is favorable for glacier growth, a combination of factors other than orbital forcing, primarily strong anthropogenic is likely in effect. Due to the delayed reaction of glaciers to climatic changes, retreat will continue into future decades. In some cases the large changes inferred from glacier records are more pronounced than reconstructions based on higher resolution records and models driven by solar forcing. This observation may indicate that other proxies and model results tend to underestimate the amplitude of Holocene climate change.

Learning from the Past to understand the Presente and predict the Future: The Mexican Quatermary Mammal Database

J. Arroyo-Cabrales (INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ANTROPOLOGIA E HISTORIA, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico), I. Ferrusquía-Villafranca (UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico), E. Johnson (MUSEUM OF TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY, LUBBOCK, TEXAS, United States of America), J. Ruiz-González (UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico), E. Martínez-Hernández (UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico), J. Gama-Castro (UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico)

Abstract details
Learning from the Past to understand the Presente and predict the Future: The Mexican Quatermary Mammal Database

J. Arroyo-Cabrales (1) ; I. Ferrusquía-Villafranca (2) ; E. Johnson (3) ; J. Ruiz-González (2) ; E. Martínez-Hernández (2) ; J. Gama-Castro (2)
(1) INSTITUTO NACIONAL DE ANTROPOLOGIA E HISTORIA, LABORATORIO DE ARQUEOZOOLOGIA, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico; (2) UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL AUTONOMA DE MEXICO, Instituto de geologia, MEXICO, D. F., Mexico; (3) MUSEUM OF TEXAS TECH UNIVERSITY, Department of anthropology, LUBBOCK, TEXAS, United States of America

Abstract content

The Pleistocene and modern mammal faunas of southern North America partially differ in taxonomic composition, distribution, and physiognomy. The former faunal complexes are part of the ancient landscape in which early people may have interacted. Differences between the Pleistocene and modern faunas have been attributed either to climate change, to human-impact driven extinctions, or even to catastrophic phenomena, like a meteorite impact. México’s Pleistocene mammal record is analyzed in time and space, emphasizing the study of the Rancholabrean Chronofauna; furthermore, available isotopic data is reported for supporting paleoenvironmental inferences. Palynological and paleosol records are reviewed as an independent check of the interpretation e from mammals. The integration of the information provides the basis for a proposal regarding Late Pleistocene climate change trends across the country, and whether people were involved in the mammalian community response to climate change in terms of extinction or biogeographic shifting within and outside the country. This approach supports an explanation for the differences between southern North America’s Pleistocene and modern mammal faunas. This difference is the combined results of individual species extinctions and range modifications that affected and changed the vertebrate biota physiognomy and taxonomic composition. The available fossil record, however, does not portray this major biogeographic shifting of species in detail due to the lack of associated chronometric data.  The analysis of disjunct (i.e., separated from the main range) and of demonstrably relict species may be an alternative to provide greater detail and understanding about the response of individual species to climate change during the Late Pleistocene. The Late Pleistocene mammal record was analyzed by morphotectonic provinces that were grouped into four larger geographic units to examine zoogeographic distribution, any variance in distribution (extinctions, extirpations), and environmental conditions inferred from that distribution and variance.  Time and space biases exist, with records favoring the Late Pleistocene (Rancholabrean) and the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), particularly the Basin of México. Nevertheless, biological communities throughout the country experience profound changes in species composition and structure.  Such a pattern was due not to direct human impact but to the consequences of environmental changes throughout and particularly at the end of the Pleistocene. The shifting of ecological and climatic zones was not a simple matter of displacement and range adjustments.  Such conditions, among other things, allowed stenotopic species (restricted tolerance to a narrow range of environmental conditions) to extend their range beyond narrow parameters, and eurytopic ones (broad tolerance to a wide range of environmental conditions) to thrive extensively across the country. The coexistence of a highly diverse group of mammals indicates a community structure organized differently than that of today in order to facilitate the complex relationships that coexistence would have required.  The disruption of these biotic interactions would have created a coevolutionary disequilibrium situation.  The available information on México’s Pleistocene mammal, palynological, and paleosol records allows only broad trends to be discerned in the complex environmental-biota interplay and what role, if any, early people played in extinction.  A critical need exists to fill in the time and space gaps in these records.  Solid radiocarbon chronologies need to be developed that can anchor the various records and provide the framework for more in-depth analyses of environmental changes and individual species response. In a focused radiocarbon dating program, TMVB province and mammoth would be a reasonable target.  The most concentrated research has been in this province and mammoth is the most ubiquitous Late Pleistocene mammal.  Research needs to continue and expand in the other provinces in order to have a representative sample across the country.  While research in the Northern provinces has been most fruitful in terms of mammal-human interactions during the latest Pleistocene, the Gulf Coastal Plains (Eastern province) has great potential in illuminating that interaction as well.  México’s record is critical in understanding the continent-wide affects of Pleistocene climatic changes on plants, animals, and humans.  This initial synthesis forms a first-order interpretation and basis for future research directions.

 

Autonomous observations with Bio-Argo floats in the Southern Ocean

S. Blain (Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, banyuls/mer, France), H. Claustre (CNRS, Université pierre et Marie Curie, Villefranche sur mer, France), S. Speich (Ecole normale superieure, paris, France), J. Uitz (CNRS, Université pierre et Marie Curie, Villefranche sur mer, France), A. Poteau (CNRS, Université pierre et Marie Curie, Villefranche sur mer, France), G. Obolensky (Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, banyuls/mer, France), M. Rembauville (Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, banyuls/mer, France)

Abstract details
Autonomous observations with Bio-Argo floats in the Southern Ocean

S. Blain (1) ; H. Claustre (2) ; S. Speich (3) ; J. Uitz (2) ; A. Poteau (2) ; G. Obolensky (1) ; M. Rembauville (1)
(1) Université Pierre et Marie Curie, CNRS, laboratoire Océanographie microbienne, banyuls/mer, France; (2) CNRS, Université pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire océanographique villefranche, Villefranche sur mer, France; (3) Ecole normale superieure, Departement de geosciences, paris, France

Abstract content

The Southern Ocean (SO) is the most remote and the least understood of the world’s oceans, although it plays a crucial role in past and present climate state and changes. It is unique in being the only zonally unbounded ocean. For this reason, it is the major link by which water properties are exchanged among the other oceans. Moreover, the SO is a major source of natural CO2 due to the upwelling of CO2-rich deep waters and a major sink of anthropogenic CO2 due to the formation of intermediate and bottom waters. The SO  also largely contributes to supply nutrients from the deep ocean to the upper water layer everywhere in the world ocean. For all these reasons, the SO plays a critical role in the control of the Earth’s climate. In turn it is very sensitive to climate variability. Given its critical role, changes in the SO have global ramifications. In fact, such changes are already under way. But at present, the SO remains particularly under-explored. The SO extends over a vast area of the Earth’s surface and it is located far away from the other continents and most of the research facilities. Extreme weather conditions and significant sea-ice coverage prevail over most of the year. This results in a scarcity of oceanographic data that limits our ability to understand key climatic-relevant processes and document ongoing changes.

The SOCLIM (Southern Ocean and Climate) project intends to implement a cutting-edge approach that will qualitatively and quantitatively improve the observation of the SO via pioneering in situ data acquisition with deployment of instrumented profilers and moorings.

Ten new-generation Bio-Argo floats were launched in water off South of Africa in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from December 2014 to January 2015 and they are now entering the Indian sector of the SO. These floats are equipped with sensors that measure salinity, temperature, chlorophyll-a, color dissolved organic matter, backscattering at 700nm, transmission at 650nm, oxygen, nitrate and light attenuation at different wavelengths. They are collecting data in the Sub-Antarctic and Antarctic zones south east of Africa and around the Kerguelen Plateau. We will present the first data gathered during the austral summer and fall 2015. They will provide first insights in the dynamics of the termination of phytoplankton blooms in different environments and contribute to quantify the biological pump of CO2 in the SO. We will also present the plan for the deployment of an instrumented mooring in the region of Kerguelen to be deployed in 2016.

Inter-annual Variability of the Upper Ocean Temperature in the Tropical Western Indian Ocean

M. Manyilizu (University of Dodoma, Dodoma, Tanzania, United Republic of), D. Francois (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Wembley, Australia), P. Penven (Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD), Bretagne, France), C. Reason, (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract details
Inter-annual Variability of the Upper Ocean Temperature in the Tropical Western Indian Ocean

M. Manyilizu (1) ; D. Francois (2) ; P. Penven (3) ; C. Reason, (4)
(1) University of Dodoma, College of Informatics and Virtual Education, Dodoma, Tanzania, United Republic of; (2) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Marine and atmospheric research, Wembley, Australia; (3) Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD), Centre ird de bretagne, Bretagne, France; (4) University of Cape Town, Department of oceanography, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

Interannual variability of the upper ocean temperature in the tropical western Indian Ocean has been studied using a regional ocean model. The strongest SST variability occurs in the offshore region lying over high subsurface temperature variations located between 30 and 130 m. Such a region corresponds with strong variations in the thermocline depth. The lowest SST variations occur in the Tanzanian shelf waters and lie over the subsurface waters with the smallest temperature variations in the upper 200 m. Such smallest temperature variations match with weak variations in the thermocline depth.  However, the region with the highest variability of the subsurface temperature is more explained by interannual variability related to strong thermocline variations. The thermocline variations can be associated with local Ekman pumping and/or remote influence from the large-scale climate modes. Anomalous local downwelling (upwelling)  and downwelling (upwelling) Rossby waves generated  during ENSO and IOD events lead to anomalies in the thermocline depth  and hence in subsurface temperature. The strong variability in the offshore region is related to strong interannual variability in the thermocline associated with ENSO and the IOD.

Climate change impacts on marine fisheries: assessing the catchment in Peninsular Malaysia

A. H. M. Kamal (Universiti Putra Malaysia Bintulu Sarawak Campus, Bintulu, Sarawak, Malaysia), J. Ismail (Universiti Putra Malaaysia Bintulu Sarawak campus, Bintulu, Malaysia), H. Idris (Universiti Putra Malaysia Bintulu Sarawak Campus, Bintulu, Malaysia)

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Climate change impacts on marine fisheries: assessing the catchment in Peninsular Malaysia

AHM. Kamal (1) ; J. Ismail (2) ; H. Idris (3)
(1) Universiti Putra Malaysia Bintulu Sarawak Campus, Animal Science and Fishery, Bintulu, Sarawak, Malaysia; (2) Universiti Putra Malaaysia Bintulu Sarawak campus, Animal science and fishery, Bintulu, Malaysia; (3) Universiti Putra Malaysia Bintulu Sarawak Campus, Animal science and fishery, Bintulu, Malaysia

Abstract content

Global climate change variations over the past 30 years have produced numerous impacts in the abundance and production performance of marine fish and fisheries worldwide. The consequences in terms of flooding of low-lying estuarine habitats due to over rainfall, fluctuation of temperature, dilution of water parameters, devastation of feeding and breeding habitats, salinity fluctuations and acidification of waters, high siltation in coastal area, changes in the sea water table and breeding triggers have raised serious concerns for the well-being of marine fisheries and their production. This study shows that the overall total catchment of marine fisheries was decreased 38% in 2009 compared to 1998 while considers the fishing gears and vessels number used in Peninsular Malaysia. Registered vessels number was increased up to 92% in 2009 compared to 1998 which eventually increased the total catchment volume of marine fisheries. In 2009, the catching efforts and performance was far low as per vessels compared to 1998. Analysis of climate change variables shows that temperature was decreased as rainfall was increased within the year from 1998 to 2009. However, it is still early to conclude that whether climate change variables could have unpleasant impacts on fish production in the tropical seas like Malaysia. In spite of that it is predicted that the prolong exists of monsoon and increases of rainfall in this area resulting the stresses and sometimes interfering on the habitat, reproductive cycle and their related ecosystems in this coastal marine environment in tropics.

Variability in subtropical-tropical cells drives oxygen levels in the tropical Pacific Ocean

O. Duteil (GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany), C. Boening (GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany), A. Oschlies (GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany)

Abstract details
Variability in subtropical-tropical cells drives oxygen levels in the tropical Pacific Ocean

O. Duteil (1) ; C. Boening (1) ; A. Oschlies (1)
(1) GEOMAR, Kiel, Germany

Abstract content

Previous studies found a negative trend in oxygen concentrations in tropical regions during the last decades. Employing a biogeochemical circulation model, we highlight the importance of wind driven ocean transport associated with the Subtropical-Tropical Cells (STCs) in setting the oxygen levels in the tropical ocean. The observed and simulated slowdown of the STCs by 30 percent from the 1960s to the 1990s caused a decrease in oxygen transport to the tropics. Transport of phosphate was similarly reduced, decreasing export production and respiration. The effects of physical transport and biological consumption partly compensate, damping oxygen interannual and decadal variability. Our results suggest that the observed residual oxygen trend in the tropical Pacific is mainly driven by changes in oxygen transport. Accordingly, the observed recent strengthening of the STCs leads us to expect a pause in the oxygen decrease or even an increase of tropical Pacific oxygen values in the near future.

Mass mortality events in atoll lagoons: present environmental control and increased future vulnerability with climate change

S. Andrefouet (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), C. Dutheil, (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), C. Menkes (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), M. Bador (CERFACS, Toulouse, France, France), M. Lengaigne (UPMC, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Mass mortality events in atoll lagoons: present environmental control and increased future vulnerability with climate change

S. Andrefouet (1) ; C. Dutheil, (1) ; C. Menkes (2) ; M. Bador (3) ; M. Lengaigne (4)
(1) IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia; (2) IRD, LOCEAN, Noumea, New Caledonia; (3) CERFACS, Climate Modelling and Global Change team, Toulouse, France, France; (4) UPMC, Paris, France

Abstract content

Several geomorphologically closed atolls of the Pacific Ocean have experienced in recent decades mass benthic and pelagic lagoonal life mortalities, that are due to unusual calm weather conditions lasting for several weeks. These events, although poorlyknown and characterized, pose a major threat for resource sustainability for islanders, and need to be taken into account for long-term resource management. A sample of eleven mortality events on eight atolls from the central South Pacific occurring between 1993 and 2012 were revisited to estimate the environmental thresholds required to trigger such events. We investigated thresholds and spatial patterns of sea surface temperature, significant wave height and wind stress satellite data. Then, using these thresholds, spatial maps of present-day potential risk are produced for the central South Pacific region. The highest risk zone lies north of the Tuamotu Archipelago in French Polynesia. To assess future risks in a climate change era, a regional climate model is used to downscale the projected future climate and to estimate the potential change in risk by the end of the 21st century. This process highlights a relative risk increase of up to 60% for the eastern Tuamotu atolls/ However, caution is required given the limited number of case-studies available to train the analysis and identify thresholds. This study suggests that long-term monitoring of the biophysical conditions of the lagoons at risk is needed to precisely identify the physical thresholds and better understand the biological processes involved in these rare, but consequential, mass mortality events.

Indian Ocean warming trends simulated by an OGCM

R. Sivankutty (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India), C. Gnanaseelan, (Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India)

Abstract details
Indian Ocean warming trends simulated by an OGCM

R. Sivankutty (1) ; C. Gnanaseelan, (1)
(1) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Theoretical Studies Division, Pune, Maharashtra, India

Abstract content

Tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) SST shows a steady increasing trend over the last 50 years. Many recent studies suggests that this surface warming has significant influence on large scale summer monsoon circulation features. In this study we investigate he reasons behind the TIO warming using OGCM simulations. The surface heat flux changes alone cannot explain the surface warming pattern in TIO. Significant changes large scale surface circulation in TIO is simulated by the model. The surface circulation change in TIO closely corresponds to surface wind changes and associated geostrophic response in the ocean. We propose an air-sea coupled feedback mechanism to explain the increased warming rate of central and eastern TIO. Results of model sensitivity experiments controlling the surface forcing parameters confirms that, TIO warming pattern is highly modulated by oceanic processes.   

THOT (TaHitian Ocean Time series): a new kind of long-lasting deep-sea oceanographic station in the central South Pacific

E. Martinez (IRD-Ifremer-UPF-ILM, Tahiti, French Polynesia), H. Claustre (CNRS-Université pierre et Marie Curie, Villefranche sur mer, France), M. Rodier, (IRD-Ifremer-UPF-ILM, Tahiti, French Polynesia), A. Poteau (CNRS-Université pierre et Marie Curie, Villefranche sur mer, France), C. Maes (IRD-CNRS-Ifremer-UBO, Plouzane, France), A. Mignot (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts , United States of America), M. Taquet (IRD-Ifremer-UPF-ILM, Tahiti, French Polynesia), C. Ponsonnet (Direction des Ressources Marines et Minières, Tahiti, French Polynesia), K. Maamaatuaiahutapu (University of French Polynésia, Tahiti, French Polynesia)

Abstract details
THOT (TaHitian Ocean Time series): a new kind of long-lasting deep-sea oceanographic station in the central South Pacific

E. Martinez (1) ; H. Claustre (2) ; M. Rodier, (1) ; A. Poteau (2) ; C. Maes (3) ; A. Mignot (4) ; M. Taquet (1) ; C. Ponsonnet (5) ; K. Maamaatuaiahutapu (6)
(1) IRD-Ifremer-UPF-ILM, Ecosystèmes insulaires océaniens, Tahiti, French Polynesia; (2) CNRS-Université pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire océanographique villefranche, Villefranche sur mer, France; (3) IRD-CNRS-Ifremer-UBO, Laboratoire de physique des océans, Plouzane, France; (4) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts , United States of America; (5) Direction des Ressources Marines et Minières, Tahiti, French Polynesia; (6) University of French Polynésia, Tahiti, French Polynesia

Abstract content

Through various physical, chemical and biological processes as well as their synergetic interactions, oceans play a key-role in the modulation of climate system, carbon cycle and marine ecosystems. In the central South Pacific, including the 47 % of the French maritime domain of French Polynesia, ocean dynamic plays a key-role in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is the dominant mode of interannual variability in the Pacific with strong effects at global scales. It also modulates the decadal oscillations of the Pacific Ocean and longer-term trends. Furthermore, being part of the South Pacific subtropical gyre, variability of the French Polynesia waters is representative of those in the subtropical gyres of the global ocean. To observe and characterize climate changes in this region, the deployment of long-lasting oceanographic survey stations is necessary to follow the evolution of oceanographic key parameters (e.g., temperature, salinity, oxygen, phytoplankton biomass). However, presently there is no deep-sea monitoring observatory in the central South Pacific.

The objective of the TaHitian Ocean Time-series (THOT) project is to set up a deep-sea oceanographic station to observe and improve the understanding of climate changes in the French Polynesia waters as representative of subtropical gyre and Pacific scales. This project will be part of existing international programs on climate and ocean observations (Bio-ARGO, CLIVAR). It will provide a synergy and complementarity to long-term observations for global ocean

Implementation of a mooring station, such as those already existing, is complex in French Polynesia due to its geographical, scientific, logistical and technological remote context. Thus the originality of THOT is to set up a long-lasting station to observe climate changes based on 1) a regular deployment of physical-biogeochemical profiling floats in the area of interest over the next two/three years; 2) then to deploy the next generation of biogeochemical profiling floats capable of horizontal displacement to replace in their initial position.

Diazotrophic impacts on the biogeochemistry of the South Western Tropical Pacific and the implications of rising temperature and CO2

C. Dupouy (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), I. Berman-Franck (Bar Ilan University , Ramat Gan, Israel), I. Biegela (IRD, Marseille, France), S. Bonnet (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), F. Deboissieu (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), J. Lefèvre (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), C. Menkes (IRD, Noumea, New Caledonia), M. Rodier, (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Papeete, France)

Abstract details
Diazotrophic impacts on the biogeochemistry of the South Western Tropical Pacific and the implications of rising temperature and CO2

C. Dupouy (1) ; I. Berman-Franck (2) ; I. Biegela (3) ; S. Bonnet (1) ; F. Deboissieu (4) ; J. Lefèvre (5) ; C. Menkes (4) ; M. Rodier, (6)
(1) IRD, Mio, Noumea, New Caledonia; (2) Bar Ilan University , Mina & everard goodman faculty of life sciences, Ramat Gan, Israel; (3) IRD, Mio, Marseille, France; (4) IRD, Locean, Noumea, New Caledonia; (5) IRD, Legos, Noumea, New Caledonia; (6) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Umr-241 eio, Papeete, France

Abstract content

The physical, chemical, biological, and biogeochemical characteristics of the south western tropical Pacific Ocean have been studied since the 1980’s. The initial studies focused on the equatorial upwelling which crosses the Pacific and annually enriches surface seawaters. Primary productivity in this high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll (HNLC) region is limited by the availability of Fe and regulated by intense zooplankton grazing which provide forage for tuna fisheries. In contrast, in the Melanesian Archipelagoes, the upper layer of the tropical ocean  (between 15 and 25°S) is characterized by stable thermal stratification and nutrient-depleted (DIN, DIP), oligotrophic water especially in austral summer. Expansive surface blooms in the region experience strong seasonal and El Nino/La Nina cycles. Thus, primary producers include a high abundance of organisms fixing atmospheric dinitrogen (diazotrophs) that inject new-nitrogen into the system, the diazotrophs ( including the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium spp, diatom-diazotroph associations,  and unicellular cyanobacteria, and heterotrophic bacteria). The new production sustained by diazotrophy and the transfer of this “ new N” to the planktonic food web critically impacts regional and  global carbon and nitrogen cycling. In coastal lagoons, cyanobacteria are a major component of the food web, and run-off from land drainage and pollutions from land may affect the coastal carbon cycle and lagoon equilibrium.  Here we will present a comprehensive review of the biogeochemical investigations over the last 30 years and examine the predicted impacts of increasing sea surface temperatures and elevated atmospheric pCO2 (leading to ocean acidification) on the growth, abundance, and contributions of diazotrophs to carbon and nitrogen cycling in this region.

Carbon production and export are fuelled by dinitrogen fixation and dissolved organic nitrogen in the South-western Pacific Ocean: results from the VAHINE mesocosms experiment

H. Berthelot (Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France), T. Moutin (Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France), S. L'helguen (University of Bretagne Occidentale, Brest, France), K. Leblanc (CNRS, Marseille, France), S. Hélias (CNRS, Marseille, France), O. Grosso (CNRS, Marseille, France), N. Leblond (CNRS, Villefranche sur mer, France), B. Charrière (CNRS, Perpigan, France), S. Bonnet (IRD, Noumea, France)

Abstract details
Carbon production and export are fuelled by dinitrogen fixation and dissolved organic nitrogen in the South-western Pacific Ocean: results from the VAHINE mesocosms experiment

H. Berthelot (1) ; T. Moutin (1) ; S. L'helguen (2) ; K. Leblanc (3) ; S. Hélias (3) ; O. Grosso (3) ; N. Leblond (4) ; B. Charrière (5) ; S. Bonnet (6)
(1) Aix Marseille University, Mediterranean institute of oceanography, Marseille, France; (2) University of Bretagne Occidentale, Lemar, Brest, France; (3) CNRS, Mediterranean institute of oceanography, Marseille, France; (4) CNRS, Lov, Villefranche sur mer, France; (5) CNRS, Centre de formation et de recherche sur les environnements méditerranéens, Perpigan, France; (6) IRD, Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Noumea, France

Abstract content

The oligotrophic ocean represents 80 % of the global surface ocean. Its role on CO2 sequestration has long been considered to be low, but this view is currently challenged by new studies highlighting alternative pathways for carbon export to the deep ocean. In these systems, carbon production is limited due to nitrogen (N) scarcity but dinitrogen (N2) fixation and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) would represent significant nitrogen (N) sources for the ecosystem. Here we deployed in New Caledonia large in situ mesocosms in order to investigate (1) the contribution of  N2 fixation and DON use to primary production (PP) and particle export and (2) the fate of the freshly produced particulate organic N (PON) i.e. whether it is preferentially accumulated and recycled in the water column or exported out of the system. The mesocosms were fertilized with phosphate (P) in order to prevent P-limitation and promote N2 fixation. The diazotrophic community was dominated by diatoms-diazotrophs associations (DDAs) during the first part of the experiment for 10 days (P1) followed by the unicellular N2-fixing cyanobacteria UCYN-C the 9 last days (P2) of the experiment. N2 fixation rates averaged 9.8±4.0 nM d-1 and 27.7±8.6 nM d-1 during P1 and P2, respectively. NO3- concentrations (<40 nM) in the mesocosms were a negligible source of N indicating that N2 fixation was the main driver of new production all along the experiment. The contribution of N2 fixation to PP was not significantly different during P1 (9.0±3.3 %) and P2 (12.6±6.1 %). However, the e-ratio that quantifies the efficiency of a system to export particulate organic carbon (POCexport) compared to PP (e-ratio = POCexport/PP) was significantly higher (p<0.05) during P2 (39.7±24.9 %) than during P1 (23.9±20.2 %) indicating that the production sustained by UCYN-C was more efficient at promoting C export than the production sustained by DDAs. During P1, PON was stable and the total amount of N provided by N2 fixation (0.10±0.02 µM) was not significantly different from the total amount of PON exported (0.10±0.04 µM), suggesting a rapid and probably direct export of the recently fixed N2 by the DDAs. During P2, both PON concentrations and PON export increased in the mesocosms by a factor 1.5-2. Unlike in P1, this PON production was not totally explained by the new N provided by N2 fixation. The use of DON, which concentrations decreased significantly from 5.3±0.5 µM to 4.4±0.5 µM, appeared to be the missing N source. The DON consumption of about 0.9 µM during P2 is even higher than the total amount of new N brought by N2 fixation (about 0.25 µM) during the same period. These results suggest that while DDAs mainly rely on N2 fixation for their N requirements, both N2 fixation and DON can be significant N-sources for carbon production and export following UCYN-C blooms in New Caledonia and by extension in the N-limited Ocean where similar events are likely to occur. This study confirms that in the South West Pacific, N2 fixation is a biogeochemically relevant process able to provide sufficient new N to drive new carbon production and export. These results are particularly important in the context of increasing temperatures that will probably increase the diazotrophic activity in the future ocean.

The role of dinitrogen fixation on carbon export in the South Pacific: results from the OUTPACE project (Oligotrophy to UlTra-oligotrophy south PACific Experiment)

T. Moutin (Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France), S. Bonnet (IRD, Noumea, France)

Abstract details
The role of dinitrogen fixation on carbon export in the South Pacific: results from the OUTPACE project (Oligotrophy to UlTra-oligotrophy south PACific Experiment)

T. Moutin (1) ; S. Bonnet (2)
(1) Aix Marseille University, Mediterranean institute of oceanography, Marseille, France; (2) IRD, Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Noumea, France

Abstract content

The additional CO2 in the atmosphere, mainly resulting from fossil fuel emissions linked with human activities (anthropogenic CO2), is the main cause of global warming. The ocean has acted as a major sink of anthropogenic CO2 preventing a greater accumulation in the atmosphere and therefore a greater increase in the earth temperature. Although the biological pump provides the main explanation for the vertical gradient of carbon in the ocean, it was thought to be in an equilibrium state with an associated near-zero net exchange of CO2 with the atmosphere. Climate alterations are beginning to disrupt this equilibrium and the expected modification of the biological pump will probably considerably influence oceanic carbon sequestration (and therefore global warming) over a decadal time scale.

The overall goal of the OUTPACE (Oligotrophy to UlTra-oligotrophy PACific Experiment) project is to obtain a better representation of the influence of nitrogen fixation on the biological carbon pump in the South Western Pacific Ocean. The international OUTPACE cruise took place between February 18 and April 2, 2015, involved 30 scientists onboard, and covered around 5 000 km in the South Western Pacific Ocean from the North of New Caledonia to Tahiti.

The very first results are discussed in the context of global climate change and, more particularly, considering the role of the ocean in carbon sequestration through biological processes.

 

The O2C3 Project :Observing Pacific island societies facing climate change. Methodological, epistemological, ethical, and political implications

V. David (IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia), P.-Y. Lemeur (IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia), C. Sabinot, (IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia), G. David (Institut pour le Développement (IRD), Montpellier, France), M. Mangeas (Institut de recherche pour le développement, Montpellier, France), E. Rodary (IRD, Montpellier, France), V. Naidu (University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji)

Abstract details
The O2C3 Project :Observing Pacific island societies facing climate change. Methodological, epistemological, ethical, and political implications

V. David (1) ; PY. Lemeur (1) ; C. Sabinot, (2) ; G. David (3) ; M. Mangeas (4) ; E. Rodary (5) ; V. Naidu (6)
(1) IRD, Département sociétés umr gred, Nouméa, New Caledonia; (2) IRD, Umr 228 “ espace pour le développement”, Nouméa, New Caledonia; (3) Institut pour le Développement (IRD), UMR 228 ESPACE DEV, Montpellier, France; (4) Institut de recherche pour le développement, Mathematics, espace-dev, Montpellier, France; (5) IRD, Département sociétés umr gred, Montpellier, France; (6) University of the South Pacific, School of governance, development and international affairs, Suva, Fiji

Abstract content

Pacific island societies bear the historical hallmark of vulnerability, mobility and resilience. They have displayed adaptive capacities on the long run as far as livelihood, social institutions and political organization are concerned. The current intensification of global and climate changes could jeopardize these polities as well as pushing them to elaborate innovative solutions to face these dramatic trends. Current research programs carried out by IRD social scientists with colleagues from other institutions on changing livelihoods, health, coastal and marine governance and the value of place and land give clues about the individual and collective agency developed by Pacific islanders to deal with the risks and uncertainties inherent in this unstable situation. Against these emerging and serious challenges, there is a growing consensus about the need to think more broadly and Oceania-wide by sharing information, establishing data bases, and participating in collaborative research on the human and societal dimensions of climate change. The joint Francophone Pacific and Anglophone Pacific project Oceania Observatory of Climate Change and Its Consequences (02C3) is an effort to replicate GOPS, the South Pacific Integrated Observatory for the Environment, Terrestrial and Marine Biodiversity in the Social Sciences and Humanities, to enhance cooperation and collaboration initially among scholars based in New Caledonia and Fiji (USP) but with the intention to promote immediate Oceania wide collaboration.

The focus of the O2C3 observatory would be on peoples’ knowledge, norms and practices in an encompassing framework, including various registers of knowledge: local/traditional, administrative, scientific, statistical, legal, professional… This self-evident idea raises serious challenges as far as methods, epistemology, data management and ethics are concerned. Collecting legal texts and scientific articles dealing with the issue does not raise specific difficulty, aside from localizing and accessing sources and making relevant information available to all. Identifying mobility forms linked to climate change (climate and environmental refugees, let alone mining refugees) is also feasible. When it comes to local knowledge, practices and representations of environmental and climate changes, things become trickier. There is a need for developing an in-depth reflection (1) on pertinent disciplinary and trans-disciplinary concepts that could be mobilized in social sciences for collecting and analyzing these data and (2) on the methodological and ethical implications of this type of data production and maintenance.

The O2C3 project seeks to contribute to this effort by bringing together social scientists to cooperate on the human dimensions of climate change. The first step would be to develop a collective framework on the issue of producing, collecting, managing social data on climate change and how to make them available quickly to stakeholders and decision makers. The second step would be to establish an expanding network of social scientists and humanity scholars that will focus on Pacific Island Countries and Territories (PICTs) people’s awareness of climate change causes and consequences, stake holder standpoints, and governments’ policies and policy implementation on climate change. Third step, it will build and host a shared digital database of information relating to climate change that will be a useful resource for above-mentioned decision makers, academics and other stakeholders.

Ant invasions in the light of climate change: forecasting a major threat for island biodiversity and economy

C. Gomez (IRD- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa, New Caledonia), H. Jourdan (IRD-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Nouméa, New Caledonia)

Abstract details
Ant invasions in the light of climate change: forecasting a major threat for island biodiversity and economy

C. Gomez (1) ; H. Jourdan (2)
(1) IRD- Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Umr 237 imbe, Nouméa, New Caledonia; (2) IRD-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR 237 IMBE, Nouméa, New Caledonia

Abstract content

In the last four centuries, spread of exotic species have been steeply rising through human mediated transportation, and have been responsive for major changes to natural ecosystems as well as major consequences and damages to human activities with tremendous associated economic costs. This situation is especially exacerbated in island context, where biological invasions are considered as the main driver of change and threat for both biodiversity and human societies. In the same time, the whole biosphere is experiencing consequences of climate change. There is, now, a wide consensus that climate change will also contribute to exacerbate threats posed by invasive species to ecosystems and human societies. Scientists estimate that this will be especially true for ectotherm organisms, whose current distributions are limited by thermal barriers. But to date, these assumptions have not been widely tested or validated. Among ectotherm organisms, ants are recognised as major invasive organisms, according to their high contribution and dominance in ecosystems, high aggressiveness in context of invasion as well as economic losses related to their spread (decreased of agricultural production, damage to infrastructure, management expenses..). Then this insect group represents an ideal biological model to test current assumptions, especially in the context of fragile insular ecosystems which are considered as major biodiversity hotspots.

Here we present first results of a study, which aims at providing a better understanding of the patterns and processes behind ant invasions as well as the impacts they have on invaded communities and the projections that one can infer from these for the future as a consequence of global environmental change (under climate change driver).

To better understand the main determinants of the distribution of exotic ant species, we developped species distribution models (SDM) to predict suitable ranges for 20 major invasive ants across Pacific islands. We also explored the evolution of these patterns in the future. We modeled current distributions, based on bioclimatic parameters, soil characteristics and land cover. Future climatic data were sourced from the 5th IPCC assessment report, and it had been calibrated and statistically downscaled using the WorldClim data for ‘current’ conditions, in order to compare projections. Also, we used ordination analysis to define invasiveness potential and develop spatial projection of life history traits on dynamic invasive fronts, localized on distribution maps. Then, to better fit our predictions, we made a downscale to New Caledonia biodiversity hotspot, which is already affected by 16 ant species and at risk from the last 4 species. It provides us an unvaluable opportunity to validate in the field current occurrences, then field data have been use to recalibrate our prediction of the distribution. More answers are needed regarding future ant species assemblages, ecological determinants of the distribution dynamics of introduced ants: How climate is impacting life history traits that will facilitate invasiveness? How ant species assemblages get structured under the influence of life history traits or biotic interactions?

 

NB: Our project is involved in a current European Eranet Biodiversa funded project 2013-2016 “(FFII) Forecasting Future Invasions and their Impacts.”-

Impact of the initialization with different ocean reanalyses on forecast bias in seasonal hindcasts

E. Exarchou (IC3, Barcelona, Spain), C. Prodhomme (IC3, Barcelona, Spain), V. Guemas, (IC3, Barcelona, Spain), F. Doblas-Reyes (IC3, Barcelona, Spain)

Abstract details
Impact of the initialization with different ocean reanalyses on forecast bias in seasonal hindcasts

E. Exarchou (1) ; C. Prodhomme (1) ; V. Guemas, (1) ; F. Doblas-Reyes (1)
(1) IC3, Barcelona, Spain

Abstract content

We analyze seasonal hindcasts performed with EC-Earth3 that are initialized from two different ocean reanalysis estimates (ECMWF-ORAS4 and MERCATOR-GLORYS2V1), with the goal to investigate the impact of the different ocean reanalysis on the model bias and the model forecast skill. The seasonal hindcasts are four months long, consist of 10 ensemble members and they are initialized every May and November between 1993 and 2009. We find that the forecast initialized with ORAS4 is globally more skillful than the one initialized with GLORYS, particularly in the tropics. To study how the SST bias development relates with skill, we focus on the Tropical Atlantic, and in particular in two specific regions: the Atlantic3 region (ATL3), and the Angola-Benguela Area (ABA), where most climate models exhibit strong systematic biases. In both sets of hindcasts, a strong warm surface temperature bias develops in less than one month in winter or summer in ABA, and a strong cold surface temperature bias develops in one month in winter in ATL3. The biases in ATL3 in the hindcasts initialized with GLORYS2V1 are particularly strong in 1997, 2001 and 2003, and are caused by subsurface temperature errors in GLORYS. Despite the warm surface temperature biases in ABA, monthly mean netsurface fluxes errors are negative, indicating that errors in SST most likely have an oceanic origin; this is also corroborated by the presence of strong subsurface temperature biases.  Errors in the upwelling of the water masses could be in turn related to wind stress errors. We further investigate this possibility by performing additional sensitivity experiments using fixed windstress over the upwelling regions. 

The 3-dimensional potential vorticity structure and meridional overturning circulation of the Southern Ocean revealed using ARGO floats and data from instrumented elephant seals

C. Chapman (CNRS.LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France), J.-B. Sallée (Sorbonne Universités, Paris, France)

Abstract details
The 3-dimensional potential vorticity structure and meridional overturning circulation of the Southern Ocean revealed using ARGO floats and data from instrumented elephant seals

C. Chapman (1) ; JB. Sallée (2)
(1) CNRS.LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France; (2) Sorbonne Universités, LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France

Abstract content

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Southern Ocean is a fundamental component of the climate system. The MOC exhibits first order control over the heat and CO2 budgets of the globe, forming the Earth's large CO2 sink and mediating the exchange of heat, salt and chemical constituents southward and between ocean basins. Understanding the MOC is vital for understanding the climate system and predicting its future states.

To date, the vast majority of studies interpret the Southern Ocean MOC through a quasi 2-dimensional framework known as the Transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM). The TEM framework, developed for the study of the large scale atmospheric circulation, generally relies on zonal or streamwise averages. However, the Southern Ocean circulation is not 2-dimensional. Phenomena such as meso-scale turbulence, forced topographic meanders and mixing processes are highly localised due to the interaction between the Southern Ocean currents and large scale bathymetry. These local dynamics effect not only the regional, but the global potential vorticity structure of the Southern Ocean. It has been hypothesised that these local dynamics might have a strong influence on the MOC. We will present the results of a systemic program to study the MOC as a 3-dimensional system. Employing hydrographic profiles obtained from ARGO floats, cruises and instrumented elephant seals we develope maps of the 3-diemensional potential vorticity, geostrophic velocity and the associated fluxes due to stationary meanders. Using approximate force balances, we will use these maps to investigate the local overturning in the upper 2000m. Finally, we will discuss the implications for the large scale overturning.

Mesopelagic heterotrophic N2 fixation related to organic matter composition in the Solomon and Bismarck Seas (Southwest Pacific)

M. Benavides (Mediterranean Insitute of Oceanography, Marseille, France), P. H. Moisander, (University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, Dartmouth, United States of America), H. Berthelot (Aix Marseille University, Marseille, France), T. Dittmar, (Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment , Oldenburg, Germany), O. Grosso (CNRS, Marseille, France), S. Bonnet (IRD, Noumea, France)

Abstract details
Mesopelagic heterotrophic N2 fixation related to organic matter composition in the Solomon and Bismarck Seas (Southwest Pacific)

M. Benavides (1) ; PH. Moisander, (2) ; H. Berthelot (3) ; T. Dittmar, (4) ; O. Grosso (5) ; S. Bonnet (6)
(1) Mediterranean Insitute of Oceanography, Marseille, France; (2) University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, Biology, Dartmouth, United States of America; (3) Aix Marseille University, Mediterranean institute of oceanography, Marseille, France; (4) Institute for Chemistry and Biology of the Marine Environment , Research group for marine geochemistry, Oldenburg, Germany; (5) CNRS, Mediterranean institute of oceanography, Marseille, France; (6) IRD, Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, Noumea, France

Abstract content

The oceans play a key role in absorbing carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by human activities. This absorbing power depends largely on the activity of microalgae, which take up CO2 using nutrients and sunlight. The availability of nutrients is thus essential for maintaining life in the oceans and balancing global CO2 levels. In open ocean areas nitrogen is mainly provided through nitrogen fixation, a process performed by specific microorganisms called diazotrophs. Primary production in the oceans is strongly limited by the availability of fixed nitrogen. In open ocean nutrient-impoverished areas, which make up ~50% of the global ocean surface, nitrogen is mainly provided through the process of biological atmospheric nitrogen (N2) fixation. N2 fixation is carried out by the so termed diazotrophs, marine microorganisms that may belong to the cyanobacteria, bacteria or archaea. For many years, autotrophic diazotrophs were thought to be the most abundant diazotrophs in the ocean. Autotrophic diazotrophs need light to fix carbon dioxide via photosynthesis, and therefore are constrained to the sunlit layer of the ocean, which is generally less than 100 m deep. Recent investigations have revealed that heterotrophic diazotrophs, which cannot photosynthesize, are present in greater abundance than autotrophic diazotrophs in the world’s oceans. Heterotrophic diazotrophs are not constrained by the availability of light and therefore are able to live in the dark ocean, the largest and less studied habitat on Earth. This discovery significantly expands the boundaries where N2 fixation was though to be possible and theoretically increases the inputs of fixed nitrogen to the ocean, which remain unaccounted for. The diazotrophs inhabiting mesopelagic dark waters are heterotrophic and depend on organic matter for their nutrition. In this habitat, these microorganisms can live in association with oxygen minimum zones or local oxygen deficit microzones like organic particles. However, the relationship of heterotrophic diazotrophic activity and diversity with organic matter is unknown. We investigated N2 fixation along two transects in the Bismarck and Solomon Seas (Southwest Pacific, Transects 1 and 2 respectively). In Transect 1, transparent exopolymer particles (TEP) where higher and oxygen concentrations lower than in Transect 2. The presence of N- and P-containing dissolved organic matter (DOM) compounds was also higher in Transect 1 than in Transect 2, as revealed by Fourier transform ion cyclotron mass spectrometry. N2 fixation rates (0.09-1 nmol N L-1 d-1) were higher in Transect 1 than in Transect 2, and correlated positively with TEP and negatively with oxygen, reflecting the dependence of mesopelagic heterotrophic diazotroph activity on organic matter. The scores of the multivariate ordination of DOM samples (principal coordinate analysis) were negatively correlated with bacterial abundances and positively correlated with N2 fixation rates. We interpret these results as an active bacterial exploitation of the DOM pool and its use to sustain diazotrophic activity. Phylogenetic analyses of the nifH gene detected γ-, δ-, α- and β-proteobacteria (Cluster I), Cluster III and Cluster IV. The relative importance of anaerobic Cluster III phylotypes in our clone library (26% of sequences), suggests that N2 fixation was partially supported by diazotrophs with a particle-attached lifestyle. Custom-designed quantitative PCR primer-probe sets were designed for three selected phylotypes. The abundances of a phylotype close to Cluster III ranged from undetectable to 1000 nifH gene copies L-1. Altogether, our results provide new insights into the mysterious ecology of heterotrophic diazotrophs and suggest that in situ organic matter sustains their N2 fixation activity. The input of fixed N2 by these organisms is significant and potentially contributes significantly to nutrient replenishment and primary production in the SW Pacific.

The Climate Expectancy : a resolute parametrical approach to redefine the climate

V. Cailliez (Chambre d'Agriculture de la Creuse, GUERET, France)

Abstract details
The Climate Expectancy : a resolute parametrical approach to redefine the climate

V. Cailliez (1)
(1) Chambre d'Agriculture de la Creuse, GUERET, France

Abstract content

1) The 30-year average, a largely outdated concept :

Since the climatic break (or powerful acceleration) that happened throughout the world in the late 70s, temperatures are following a steep slope. Considering the whole set of GCM simulations (see IPCC AR5), this trend is not going to slow down, to speak gently. So, we can no longer ignore that the mathematical operation of averaging applies not only on values but also on time, when used on a chronological series.

If we don't renew the definition of climate normality, we will be using the 30-year average of 1981-2010 (i.e. the 1996 expectancy) until 2021, when the 30-year average of 1991-2020 is to be calculated and released. What was tolerable in times of slow and weak fluctuations is becomming unacceptable in a situation where a strong trend is at work (from +0.3°C to +0.5°C per decade in France since the climatic break, for instance).

The link with climate extremes is obvious. An extreme is qualified by its distance to normality. If we define the normality better, we define better what is away from it.

2) Redefining the climate :

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) classical definition of the climate can be written : observation time series = 30-year average + anomaly time series

The proposition is to refine the 3 terms of the equation by an homogenization of the observed meteorological datas, followed by a separation between the random part of the series (replacing the anomaly) and the organized part which is, in fact, the climate expectancy. The underlying idea is to consider that a 'real' anomaly in a time series should be what is totally unexpected, and so, what is part of a random series.

3) Organizationnal analysis :

The purpose is the separation of the long-term organizations (trend, cycles...) from the short-term ones (persistance...). Considering the long-term organizations, we can write :

Par(t)=(a*t+b)+Amp1*sin(2Πt/P1+Phas1)+Amp2*sin(...)+...+ParWLTO(t)

where Par(t) is the homogenized series and WLTO means Without LongTerm Organization.

The short-term organization is treated in an auto-regressive process :

ParWLTO(t)=A1.ParWLTO(t-1)+...+Akmax.ParWLTO(t-kmax)+ParWSTO(t)

where Ai are the auto-regression coefficients and kmax is the (maximum) horizon of significant persistance. WSTO means Without long term and ShortTerm Organization.

We can now easily deduce the expression of the climate expectancy ClimPar(t) :

ClimPar(t)=Par(t)-ParWSTO(t)

On this expression, it is easy to figure out that we can have a different value of the climate expectancy on each observed data till the last one. The compatibility with the classical WMO definition is achieved simply by centering ParWSTO(t).

The randomness of the ParWSTO(t) series can be verified with multiple statistical tests like the runs tests. It happens that the separation between organized and random parts is excellent. We experienced this with 30-year to 60-year long daily datas of maximum and minimum temperatures, located in the central region of France called Limousin.

Because the ParWSTO(t) series is a random series (or very close to), it can be regenerated by a random number generator. The shape of the random distribution is adjusted dynamically and parametrically to the observed one by analysing the organization of the variance, skewness and kurtosis of ParWSTO(t).

The upgrade of the determination of climate extremes is the result of the whole process which can be summarized as a separation between organized and random variability.

4) Biding farewell to the 30-year average ...

On one side, the 30-year average is an easily explained notion, which needs only simple calculations and is universal. To abandon it will be indeed a difficult human and social process. On the other side the climate expectancy is a quite open concept, delicate to understand at first sight and that can lead to long and uneasy calculations. However its integration into the toolbox of climatologists has to be started soon because of the strengh and the inertia of the global warming phenomenon. Its usability at very different scales of time (from hourly to centenial datas at the least) should facilitate a rapid consensus.

Extreme Rainfall Events in Asia: Projected Changes and Uncertainties

N. Freychet (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), A. Duchez (National Oceanography Center (NOC), Southampton, United Kingdom), C.-H. Wu (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), H.-H. Hsu (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), C.-A. Chen (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan), A. Forryan (National Oceanography Center (NOC), Southampton, United Kingdom), B. Sinha (National Oceanography Center (NOC), Southampton, United Kingdom), J. J. M. Hirschi (National Oceanography Center (NOC), Southampton, United Kingdom), A. L. New (National Oceanography Center (NOC), Southampton, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Extreme Rainfall Events in Asia: Projected Changes and Uncertainties

N. Freychet (1) ; A. Duchez (2) ; CH. Wu (1) ; HH. Hsu (1) ; CA. Chen (1) ; A. Forryan (2) ; B. Sinha (2) ; JJM. Hirschi (2) ; AL. New (2)
(1) Academia Sinica, RCEC Research Center for Environmental Change, Taipei, Taiwan Province (People's Republic of China); (2) National Oceanography Center (NOC), Southampton, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Extreme precipitation (and drought) are one of the main concern for society and environment, because they can lead to severe flood (and lack of water supply). In warmer environment, atmospheric moisture is expected to increase, and could thus create more favorable conditions to trigger extreme rainfall. However, the change in dynamics can also play a major role in the change of distribution of precipitation. The modification of the land-sea thermal gradient, the vertical structure of the atmosphere, or the latent heat released by the precipitation, can all impact the large scale circulation, and thus the rainfall distribution.

In this study, focussed on the East Asia region, we analyzed the results from two high resolution models (HiRAM-C192 and HadGEM3-GC2), and from the CMIP5 ensemble, to investigate the projected change in extreme rainfall events (either extreme precipitation or long drought). The role of the SST is also investigate. HadGEM3-GC2 is fully coupled with ORCA025, while HiRAM-C192 is forced by prescribed SST. The SST forcing for this model is determined by a cluster analysis from the CMIP5 projection. Three main patterns of SST are used, providing three different projections for this model. We also emphasize the correlation with the dynamics to explain the internannual variability of the extremes events.

In both CMIP5 ensemble and high resolution models the signal of extreme precipitation strongly increase during the summer. On the other hand, the signal on the drought spell is not clear. HadGEM3-GC2 show a decrease during winter of East Asia, while the three HiRAM runs show an increase during this same season. It could be due to a difference of sea-land contrast. The East Asia 200 hPa Jet intensity impacts significantly the variability of extremes precipitation, while the winter 850hPa winds show a strong correlation with the dought over East Asia. The results on CMIP5 ensemble also show a significant impact of the change in vertical motion (with a tendency to slow down), that could act as a counterbalance to increase of atmospheric moisture. But large uncertainties remain between different models, and impact strongly the confidence on the extreme projection.

 

 

Changes in the occurrence of cold and heat waves in France toward the end of the century assessed using a stochastic model to downscale climate model simulated temperature

S. Parey (EDF/R&D, Chatou, France), T. Hoang (EDF/R&D, Chatou, France)

Abstract details
Changes in the occurrence of cold and heat waves in France toward the end of the century assessed using a stochastic model to downscale climate model simulated temperature

S. Parey (1) ; T. Hoang (1)
(1) EDF/R&D, MFEE, Chatou, France

Abstract content

As cold and heat waves have a major impact on society and economy, these events are widely studied in climate change simulations for different parts of the world. This study may be viewed as another of such studies, but its originality lies in the adopted methodology. The aim here is to assess changes in cold or heat wave frequency distribution in France at the station, or grid point level in order to avoid any smoothing of the time series which could alter the extremes. Thus 22 robust temperature time-series provided by Meteo-France in the framework of the national research agency project SECIF and designed as SQR (for Reference Daily time Series in French) are first used to estimate the distributions of cold or heat waves of different durations, from one single day to more than 15 consecutive days. Then a stochastic model for temperature (Parey et al. 2014), designed to correctly reproduce extreme values, is used to simulate 100 equivalent temperature time series with potentially more severe extremes, so that a distribution of such frequencies can be derived for each station. As the stochastic model simulates the random part of temperature, after removing the deterministic parts (seasonality and trends) of the mean and the standard deviation, these 100 simulations are also used to reconstruct 100 time-series from each climate model simulation for different periods and greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The climate model biases are corrected by reconstructing the future seasonalities as the observed ones, to which the future changes given by the climate models are added (Smf = Smo + (Smf – Smp) ; Svf = Svo*Svmf/Svmp where subscripts o is for observation, f for future and p for present). Then, the full climate model non parametric trends in mean and standard deviation are considered. In this way, distributions of the cold or heat waves frequencies can also be obtained for climate model simulations and thus the significance of the changes can be more robustly assessed. The results obtained with two climate models (CNRM-CM5, IPSL-CM5A-MR), two RCP scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two future periods, the first and second half of the 21st century will be presented.

 

 

Parey S., Hoang T.T.H, Dacunha-Castelle D.: Validation of a stochastic temperature generator focusing on extremes, and an example of use for climate change. Climate Research, Vol. 59: 61–75, 2014

Changes in nature of extreme rainfall in southern Africa

C. Lennard (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

Abstract details
Changes in nature of extreme rainfall in southern Africa

C. Lennard (1)
(1) University of Cape Town, Climate System Analysis Group, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

Extreme rainfall, usually expressed through local or regional weather events, is driven by synoptic-scale forcings as well as other factors like moisture availability, lapse rate etc. Rainfall and especially small-scale extreme rainfall associated with convection is poorly simulated by numerical models (general circulation models - GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). However, numerical models are able to simulate large-scale circulation states so in this study we characterize circulation states to investigate projected changes in extreme rainfall over Southern Africa.

 

Downscaled evaluation and projection data from two CORDEX regional models and four global models were examined and changes in the occurrence of rainfall and extreme rainfall investigated in three sub-regions over southern Africa. Synoptic states associated with extreme rainfall were identified in each region. Over teh evaluation period we find that the regional models performed adequately in capturing the general rainfall characteristics over the region but did not capture the characteristics of extreme rainfall well. However, synoptic states associated with rainfall and extreme rainfall were captured and characterized.

 

In the near-term (2036-2065) and far-term (2065-2099) under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, synoptic states that are associated with drier conditions are projected to increase, while synoptic states that enhance precipitation are projected to decrease over time. Furthermore, the synoptic states associated with extreme precipitation are projected to increase.

 

Given the current threat posed by extreme rainfall in the regions these results speak directly to the necessity to develop effective and implementable adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of extreme rainfall on vulnerable communities.

Climatological analysis of trend of rainy days in Bangladesh using Mann Kendall Test

M. R. Uddin (Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh), J. Begum (Southeast University, Dhaka, Bangladesh), S. Ahmed (Comilla Victoria Govt. College, Comilla, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Climatological analysis of trend of rainy days in Bangladesh using Mann Kendall Test

MR. Uddin (1) ; J. Begum (2) ; S. Ahmed (3)
(1) Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Department of physics, Dhaka, Bangladesh; (2) Southeast University, Department of textile engineering, Dhaka, Bangladesh; (3) Comilla Victoria Govt. College, Department of physics, Comilla, Bangladesh

Abstract content

The impact of climate change on rainy days has received a great deal of attention by scholars worldwide. Many studies have been conducted to illustrate that changes in annual rainy days is becoming evident on a global scale. Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to climate change. This study focuses on detecting the trend of rainy days for 13 Bangladesh Meteorological Department rain gauge stations using Mann Kendall test, which was run at 5% significance level during the period 1950-2009. Seasonal and yearly trend of rainy days (greater than 01 mm/day) are studied. Variation of three threshold rainy days named: Moderated Heavy (22-44 mm/day), Heavy (45-88 mm/day) and Very Heavy (greater than 88 mm/day) are also studied. The country is divided into two regions named: wet region and dry region. All the stations showed increasing trend of rainy days except in Srimongal. The trend of Dhaka, Cox’s Bazar, Srimongal and Chittagong stations are not statistically significant. All the four seasons (winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon) showed statistically significant increasing trends except post-monsoon. The country’s averaged threshold rainy days also showed statistically significant increasing trend except Very Heavy rainy days. The yearly rainy days indicate statistically significant increasing trend. The yearly rainy days in the wet region (122 days) were higher than that of dry region (105 days). The wet (dry) region showed negative (positive) trend of rainy days during 1950-1979 whereas wet (dry) region showed positive (negative) trend of variation of rainy days during 1980-2009. The country’s averaged rainy days showed negative trend during 1950-1979 and positive trend during 1980-2009. These changes indicate that the climate of Bangladesh is changing. The yearly averaged increase of rainy days was 0.35 days.

Characterizing and understanding the Sahelian heat waves

B. Oueslati (Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, dijon, France), B. Pohl (CNRS, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, Université de Bourgogne, Dijon, France), V. Moron (Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, France, Aix-en-Provence, France), S. Rome (Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France)

Abstract details
Characterizing and understanding the Sahelian heat waves

B. Oueslati (1) ; B. Pohl (2) ; V. Moron (3) ; S. Rome (4)
(1) Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, Université de Bourgogne, dijon, France; (2) CNRS, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, Université de Bourgogne, Dijon, France; (3) Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, France, Geography, Aix-en-Provence, France; (4) Université Grenoble Alpes, LTHE UMR 5564 UJF-CNRS-IRD, Grenoble, France

Abstract content

Large efforts are made to address the heat waves (HW) in developed countries because of their devastating impacts on human health. This interest increased after the intense event over Europe during summer 2003. However, HWs are still understudied over developing countries. This is particularly true in West Africa, and especially in the Sahel, where temperatures recurrently reach critical values, such as during the 2010 HW event. Understanding the Sahelian HWs and associated health risks constitute the main objective of ACASIS, a 4-year project funded by the French Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

Our work contributes to this project and aims at characterizing the Sahelian HWs and understanding the mechanisms associated with such extreme events.

There is no universal definition of a HW event, since it is highly dependent on the sector (human health, agriculture, transport...) and region of interest. In our case, we chose to define a HW as a period of at least 3 consecutive days of extremely high (90th percentile) daily heat index (Rome et al. 2015). This index combines temperature and relative humidity in order to determine the human-perceived equivalent temperature (Steadman, 1979).

Intrinsic properties of Sahelian HW are next analyzed from the Global Summary of the Day (GSOD) synoptic observations and ERA-interim and MERRA reanalyses over 1979-2012 during boreal spring seasons (April-May-June), the hottest period of the year in the Sahel. Reanalyses capture well the observed interannual variability and seasonal cycle at the regional scale, as well as the 1979-2012 increasing linear trend of springtime HW occurrences in Central and Western Sahel.

Reanalyses however overestimate the duration, spatial extent of HW, and underestimate their intensity. For both GSOD and reanalyses, we show that, over the last three decades, Sahelian HWs tend to become more frequent, last longer, cover larger areas and reach higher intensities. The mechanisms associated with HWs are analyzed to assess the respective roles of atmospheric dynamics, radiative and turbulent fluxes, in the establishment of such events.

 

Drought Hazard Analysis over India and Its Impact on Climate Using Applying Multivariate Technique for Composite Indicators

P. Kumar, (Banasthali University, jaipur, India), K. Swati (Banasthali University, Tonk, India)

Abstract details
Drought Hazard Analysis over India and Its Impact on Climate Using Applying Multivariate Technique for Composite Indicators

P. Kumar, (1) ; K. Swati (2)
(1) Banasthali University, Remote sensing, jaipur, India; (2) Banasthali University, Remote Sensing, Tonk, India

Abstract content

Drought being complex and least understood disaster affects multidimensional parameters of social and economic structure of society. It is said to be hydro-meteorological disaster having prolonged period of below average precipitation causing drought whose severity is largely determined by the amount of rainfall. The objective of this study to carryout drought hazard analysis in India with a combination of drought indices in geospatial environment using meteorological drought hazard analysis has been carried out effectively by the generation of Drought Hazard Index (DHI). Meteorological drought hazard analysis was performed by analyzing rainfall and its distribution pattern and drought occurrences. The current study of this research is to develop a composite index capturing spatial variations of drought hazard by taking into account the spatial and temporal occurrence of meteorological drought and to map the drought hazard in India. The present research involves generation of drought hazard index formed by compilation of individual indicators based on meteorological parameters into single index which is further used for the analysis of namely meteorological drought hazard in the country India. The study uses Climate Precipitation Center (CPC) rainfall time series at 10 x10 km grid for south west monsoon season (June-September) for 12 years 2001-2012 shown in Figure 1. DHI proposed in this study is a major initiative towards generating hazard indices for disasters with the composite index approach. DHI has fairly well represented the drought hazard pattern in the country by capturing the spatial variations in drought hazard across India. The DHI has thus effectively captured the spatial variations in drought hazard across India. The spatial patterns of drought hazard are reasonable and justify the strength of the index. The procedure for generating DHI can be further improved by adding more number of indicators. The strengths of the methodology are using a composite index method, analysis in spatial perspective, inclusion of a wide range of inputs and covering a large geographic area. Indicators selection and weights generation are the possible areas for further work.

 

Extreme North America Winter 2013-15: California drought and cold East Coast

S. S.-Y. Wang (Utah State University, Logan, Utah, United States of America), J.-H. Yoon (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Richland, WA, United States of America), R. Gillies, (Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States of America)

Abstract details
Extreme North America Winter 2013-15: California drought and cold East Coast

SSY. Wang (1) ; JH. Yoon (2) ; R. Gillies, (3)
(1) Utah State University, Climate Center, Logan, Utah, United States of America; (2) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory , Department of energy, Richland, WA, United States of America; (3) Utah State University, Logan, UT, United States of America

Abstract content

The ongoing California drought was initiated by an anomalous high-amplitude ridge system in the winter of 2013–2014. The anomalous ridge was investigated using reanalysis data and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). It was found that the ridge emerged from continual sources of Rossby wave energy in the western North Pacific starting in late summer and subsequently intensified into winter. The ridge generated a surge of wave energy downwind and deepened further the trough over the northeast U.S., forming a dipole. The dipole and associated circulation pattern is not linked directly with either El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Pacific Decadal Oscillation; instead, it is correlated with a type of ENSO precursor. Multi-model analysis using CMIP5 model outputs indicated that the connection between the dipole and ENSO precursor has become stronger since the 1970s, and this is attributed to increased greenhouse gas loading as simulated by the CESM. Therefore, there is a traceable anthropogenic warming footprint in the enormous intensity of the anomalous ridge during winter 2013–2014 and the associated drought. When projecting for the future, the large-member ensemble simulations of CESM indicated increases in fire counts and extreme drought occurrences, both of which are increasingly linked to the ENSO cycle.

 

Furthermore, the extent to which climate oscillations will modulate wildfire occurrences in the changing climate is examined. The consensus of climate model has projected a generally wetter climate for California towards the latter part of the 21st century, a scenario that seems to counter the projections of more fires in a wetter climate. Using CESM that directly outputted fire parameters, it is found that both the mean fire probability and annual precipitation in California are projected to increase slightly towards the end of the 21st century. However, the fluctuation in annual precipitation will amplify leading to a robust increase in the variation of vegetation and fire probability. The increased fluctuation of fire probability is associated with the amplified ENSO cycle at the 4-5 year frequency. This association suggests a potential for increasingly severe wildfires to occur more regularly in the future.

Uses and limits of thermal indices: the case of Sahel

S. Rome (Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France), V. Moron (Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, France, Aix-en-Provence, France), B. Oueslati (Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, dijon, France), B. Pohl (CNRS, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, Université de Bourgogne, Dijon, France), B. Fontaine (CNRS, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, Université de Bourgogne, Dijon, France), A. Diedhiou (Institute of Research for Development (IRD), Grenoble Cedex 9, France)

Abstract details
Uses and limits of thermal indices: the case of Sahel

S. Rome (1) ; V. Moron (2) ; B. Oueslati (3) ; B. Pohl (4) ; B. Fontaine (4) ; A. Diedhiou (5)
(1) Université Grenoble Alpes, LTHE UMR 5564 UJF-CNRS-IRD, Grenoble, France; (2) Aix-Marseille Université, CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, France, Geography, Aix-en-Provence, France; (3) Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, Université de Bourgogne, dijon, France; (4) CNRS, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie-BIOGEOSCIENCES, Université de Bourgogne, Dijon, France; (5) Institute of Research for Development (IRD), LTHE - University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble Cedex 9, France

Abstract content

Our main goal here is to analyse extreme heat waves (HWs) in the Sahel (13°N-18°N; 16°W-30°E), using different thermal indices. In the ACASIS project funded by the French “Agence Nationale de la Recherche”, HWs analyses are characterized for the first time during the hottest season in the Sahel, using the Global Summary of the Day (GSOD) synoptic observations during April-May-June 1973-2013. Such extreme high temperatures are usually defined by 3 criteria: 1/ Their low probability of occurrence: less than the 10% of the days. The use of absolute thresholds, associated with heat budget and physiological impacts, could be an alternative (Seneviratne et al., 2012). 2/ Their intensity, i.e. their amplitude in terms of standard deviations from the local climatology (Goubanova, 2007), or otherwise excesses over absolute intensity thresholds. 3/ Their severity: extreme events causing socio-economic or human losses, the notion of impact is thus of major importance for their definition (Beniston et al., 2007).

According to prior IPCC assessments (TAR, AR4 and SREX), it is very likely that increased maximum temperatures and enhanced probabilities of hot days occurrences will occur at the global scale. There is also medium confidence that warm spells/heat weave frequencies, lengths or intensities will increase in many regions (Cubasch et al., 2013). Because of its latitude, Sahel is especially concerned, with diurnal temperatures often exceeding 40°C in boreal spring and, to a lesser extent, autumn. AR4 concluded that global land-surface air temperature (LSAT) had increased over the instrumental period of record, with the warming rate approximately double that reported over the oceans since 1979. AR5 confirms previous estimates: Global LSAT increased: 0.1005°C ± 0.01925°C per decade over 1901-2012 period while the rise reaches 0.262°C ± 0.05°C per decade over 1979-2012 time period, according to the observations of CRUTEM4.1.1.0, GHCNv3.2.0, GISS and Berkeley dataset average (Hartman et al., 2013). Changes in the length of the spells are observed and they are likely to increase but this needs to be investigated further over Sahel where severe heat can have damaging consequences for societies.

For instance, in Niamey (Niger) in April 2010 whereas Tmax reaching 47°C (Ringard et al., 2015), increased morbidity and mortality rates were observed, especially among the elderly and young children. Moreover, in some places, HWs can be associated with increased rates of atmospheric pollution.

Terminology is large: a “hot spell” implies the hottest temperature during an extreme of temperature with a small duration (a few hours), small extension (around the station) and a high frequency; a “warm spell” should be less frequent and covers a larger area; a “heat wave” (HW) exceeds thresholds of temperature most frequently and covers at least a whole region (~ 500-1000 km²). These thresholds can be absolute (T° fixed locally) or relative, exceeding 5 °C as local standards for example for Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI, 2013). ACMAD (African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development) classifies the extreme temperatures following five high-impact weather events; they broadcasts a mail alert when Tmax> 40°C. In ACASIS, Sahelian HW is defined (Rome et al. 2015) as a period of at least 3 consecutive days of extremely high (above the local 90th percentile) daily heat index. The Heat Index (HI) (Steadman 1979, 1994), combining temperature and relative humidity, appears as the most appropriate index, suitable for tropical climate, which takes into account the human-perceived equivalent temperature. The role of humidity is rather small in boreal spring across the Sahel, when high incoming solar radiation is combined with extremely dry soils, preventing cooling effect associated with latent heat flux. As for global scales, results show a clear warming trend over the last three decades, with a clear trend for HW events to become more frequent, last longer, cover larger areas and reach higher intensities (see also Oueslati et al. 2015). We then observe a decrease in cases of “Caution” HI and an increase in cases of “Danger” and “Extreme Danger” HI values.

Climate Change Signal in the 2012 Central U.S. Record (Flash) Drought

S. S.-Y. Wang (Utah State University, Logan, Utah, United States of America)

Abstract details
Climate Change Signal in the 2012 Central U.S. Record (Flash) Drought

SSY. Wang (1)
(1) Utah State University, Climate Center, Logan, Utah, United States of America

Abstract content

The summer drought of 2012 in the central United States is instructive regarding one unique feature, that is, its rapid intensification during the early summer, evolving over a mere month from moderate to severe status. The timing of this drought’s rapid intensification coincided with a subseasonal feature of widespread drying.  The seasonal transition from June to July saw precipitation in the central U.S. decrease by about 25%, and this precipitation decrease is observed to have intensified since 1979.  Such an intensification could enhance spring drought occurrences in the central U.S., where conditions evolved quickly from being abnormally dry to exceptionally dry, likely within a mere month from June to July.  In this study, various atmospheric and land reanalysis datasets were analyzed to examine the trend calculated from 1979 to 2012 in the June-to-July seasonal transition.  It was found that the change in precipitation deficit was accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation flux and tropospheric subsidence, enhanced evaporative fraction, as well as an elevated planetary boundary layer height.  The change in the tropospheric circulation encompassed an anomalous ridge over the western U.S. and a trough on either side; this wave-form circulation pattern is known to induce dry conditions in the central U.S.  Such trends in the June-to-July seasonal shifts in precipitation, surface drying, and tropospheric circulation could have intensified and accelerated drought that took place in spring.  The knowledge of the trends allows one to anticipate the evolution of spring onset of drought into the summer.

Summer temperature extremes over Europe obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models

S. Lidija (Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia), I. Güttler, (Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia), K. Cindrić Kalin, (Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia), Č. Branković, (Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract details
Summer temperature extremes over Europe obtained from an ensemble of regional climate models

S. Lidija (1) ; I. Güttler, (1) ; K. Cindrić Kalin, (1) ; ?. Branković, (1)
(1) Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Department for Climatological Research and Applied Climatology, Zagreb, Croatia

Abstract content

European summer temperature extremes from simulations of six EURO-CORDEX regional climate models are analysed for the 20-year period, 1989-2008. The models were driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis at 50 and 12.5-km horizontal resolutions. Three categories of extreme temperature indices - absolute, percentile and duration - are derived from daily data. The results are compared with extreme temperature indices calculated from the gridded daily E-OBS data over Europe and for Croatia, where the indices are derived from daily observations at 20 Croatian meteorological stations. The ensemble spread is large, but the biases at 12.5-km simulations are smaller than at 50 km. When compared with validation data, model simulated temperatures and their percentiles are mostly overestimated over southern Europe and underestimated over northern Europe. Over Croatia, spatial distribution of indices at 12.5 km is closer to observed distribution than at the 50-km resolution.

Study of Extreme Rainfall Events over Odisha using observation and simulation

S. Payoshni (CSIR 4PI, BANGALORE,KARNATAKA, India), K. C. Gouda (CSIR 4PI, BANGALORE,KARNATAKA, India), P. Goswami (CSIR FOURTH PARADIGM INSTITUTE (FORMERLY CSIR CMMACS), BANGALORE KARNATAKA, India)

Abstract details
Study of Extreme Rainfall Events over Odisha using observation and simulation

S. Payoshni (1) ; KC. Gouda (2) ; P. Goswami (3)
(1) CSIR 4PI, BANGALORE,KARNATAKA, India; (2) CSIR 4PI, Cemp, BANGALORE,KARNATAKA, India; (3) CSIR FOURTH PARADIGM INSTITUTE (FORMERLY CSIR CMMACS), Cemp, BANGALORE KARNATAKA, India

Abstract content

The state of Odisha lies in the eastern part of India with a broad coast line of around 480 km. The climate of state fully depends on the Indian summer monsoon and being the coastal state always the disaster due to hydro meteorological events like tropical cyclone, extreme rainfall events (ERE) and flood etc. are important to monitor and model for the real time mitigation and disaster management. In this study first the extreme rainfall analysis is being carried out using the rainfall data from multiple sources like the India Meteorological Department (IMD) daily gridded data, APHRODITE and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)  data. Firstly the EREs defined with the criteria of a grid point receiving 10cm or more rainfall per 24hour, are counted over the continental part of Odisha state domain (18-22.5oN, 82-87oE) at the daily scale for the period 1951 to 2014. The inter annual variability in the number of ERE over the state are presented and which clearly shows there is an increasing trend in the ERE of about 0.23 events/year. Because there is a positive trend of the ERE in the second part the ERE distributions are being analyzed and clearly indicates there is increase in the ERE over the south, central and eastern part of Odisha while the trend is normal in the northern part. The possible impact of climate change is also quantified. To simulate the ERE the Mesoscale  Meteorological Research Institute, Japan  Non Hydrostatic Model (NHM) is calibrated for the Odisha region and about 10 such events are simulated and the model is well capable of simulating the EREs before 48-72 hours. Some sensitivity studies also carried out with the model for the optimized configuration of the model for the meso scale forecasting of the EREs over Odisha. This model configuration and the observational studycan be used for the investigation of the ERE mechanisms in particular over Odisha region and the medium range forecasts can be useful for different sectors like agriculture planning, water management, disaster management etc. for the state of Odisha 

Determining climate indicators to assess the impact of extreme weather events on road accidents in Hungary

M. Lakatos (Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary), E. Vincze (Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary), Z. Bihari (Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary), T. Szentimrey (Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, Hungary)

Abstract details
Determining climate indicators to assess the impact of extreme weather events on road accidents in Hungary

M. Lakatos (1) ; E. Vincze (1) ; Z. Bihari (1) ; T. Szentimrey (1)
(1) Hungarian Meteorological Service, Climate Department, Budapest, Hungary

Abstract content

The Special Report of IPCC on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (2011) concluded that there is evidence from observations gathered since 1950 of change in some extremes. A set of climate indices are used in several projects on climate change as prevailing indicators of changes in extremes.

The main focus of the presentation is preparing climate indicators to impact and vulnerability assessment of roads accidents, as critical infrastructure, within extreme weather events in wintertime periods based on existing dataset of the National Adaptation Geographical Information System (NAGIS) in Hungary. The daily grid for period 1961-2010 in 0.1° spatial resolution for several basic meteorological variables and climate indicators were created in CARPATCLIM (Climate of Carpathian Region) project is integrated to the NAGIS system for the territory of Hungary. The common used methods and software in the CARPATCLIM project was the method MASH (Multiple Analysis of Series for Homogenization; Szentimrey) for homogenization, quality control, completion of the observed daily data series; and the method MISH (Meteorological Interpolation based on Surface Homogenized Data Basis; Szentimrey and Bihari) for gridding of homogenized daily data series. It is a relevant climate database for studying climate extremes and climate change in the region.

Different climate indicators are defined and quantified to mapping of exposure and sensitivity such as zero crossing days, precipitation amount in a specific period, ice days, snow cover, wind speed, cold/wet days, daily mean temperature < 25th percentile, and daily precipitation > 75th percentile for example. These climate indicators are the input values to impact studies that will be developed through the integration of the exposure and sensitivity mapping layers to the NAGIS system. Mapping of exposure will be based on measurement data and climate modelling results of Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ), while the transport accident data recorded at the central body of disaster management will serve as a basis for sensitivity mapping.  Among others these climate indicators will be used to assess the vulnerability due to climate change, which will foster the development of adaptation strategies and objective decision making.

Climate change and extreme weather events in Mediterranean Sea: studies with WRF atmospheric model

G. Emmanouil (Demokritos, Athens, Greece), M. Vlachogianni (Demokritos, Athens, Greece), A. Sfetsos (Demokritos, Athens, Greece)

Abstract details
Climate change and extreme weather events in Mediterranean Sea: studies with WRF atmospheric model

G. Emmanouil (1) ; M. Vlachogianni (1) ; A. Sfetsos (1)
(1) Demokritos, Athens, Greece

Abstract content

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent the last years. This fact along with its relation to the possible climate change, are two major issues of scientific study. In this work, WRF-ARW atmospheric model is used to simulate extreme weather conditions in Mediterranean Sea, focusing in the Greek peninsula. Sensitivity tests with different model configurations will be presented, as well as evaluation of the results against in-situ observations. The results show good agreement with observations and prove to be a very useful tool for studying, forecasting and trying to limit down the consequences of such events.

Characterization of extreme rain events and assessment of Regional Climate Models in Morocco

K. Khomsi (Direction de la Météorologie Nationale, Casablanca, Morocco), M. Gil (Université Montpellier 2, MONTPELLIER, France), M. Sinan (Ecole Hassania des Travaux Publics, Casablanca, Morocco), M. Snoussi (Université Mohammed V-Agdal, Faculty of Sciences, Rabat, Morocco)

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Characterization of extreme rain events and assessment of Regional Climate Models in Morocco

K. Khomsi (1) ; M. Gil (2) ; M. Sinan (3) ; M. Snoussi (4)
(1) Direction de la Météorologie Nationale, Casablanca, Morocco; (2) Université Montpellier 2, Hsm/ird, MONTPELLIER, France; (3) Ecole Hassania des Travaux Publics, Casablanca, Morocco; (4) Université Mohammed V-Agdal, Faculty of Sciences, Rabat, Morocco

Abstract content

At a global scale, more than half of the costliest disasters are weather related and our planet is facing more devastating extreme events mainly those related to rain. In Morocco, the floods between the 21st and the 25th November 2014 in the south of the country had caused the death of 32 people. In Casablanca, the flood of the 29th-30th November 2010 had caused enormous human and material losses. In the province of Settat, the flood of the 23th and 24th  December 2001 have caused the death of eight people and flooded several industrial units and Douars in the region, adding to many other tragedies in the flood areas. Also in Ourika, the floods of the 17th August 1995 had caused more than 230 deaths, 500 missing, 200 damaged cars and other property damage. Thus, there is a real need for understanding and anticipating weather extreme events mainly those related to intense rains, that may leads the way in risk assessment and development of mitigation strategies. 

 

The aim of this work is to characterize the frequency and the trends of rain extreme events and to assess simulations of regional climate models for these extreme events in the watersheds of Tensift and Bouregreg (Morocco), during the last decades. First, the work analyzes the observed trends in daily rainfall time series, than it identifies rare, very rare and exceptional rain events, using percentile-sampling thresholds, and studies the trends of their frequencies. Finally it evaluates an ensemble of regional climate models from the European project ENSEMBLES, with regard to the found trends in order to recognize models that best describe observed rain regime, in the studied catchments.

Relationship between the Tropical South Atlantic SST and drought over West Africa from CORDEX

N. A. B. Klutse (Ghana Atomic Energy Commission, Accra, Ghana), A. Babatunde (Univesrity of Cape Town, Cape Town, Western , South Africa), M. Adeniyi, (University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), F. Nkrumah (University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana)

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Relationship between the Tropical South Atlantic SST and drought over West Africa from CORDEX

NAB. Klutse (1) ; A. Babatunde (2) ; M. Adeniyi, (3) ; F. Nkrumah (4)
(1) Ghana Atomic Energy Commission, Remote sensing, gis, climate, ghana space science and technology institute, Accra, Ghana; (2) Univesrity of Cape Town, Environmental And Geographical Science, Cape Town, Western , South Africa; (3) University of Ibadan, Department of physics, Ibadan, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (4) University of Cape Coast, Department of physics, Cape Coast, Ghana

Abstract content

Droughts in West Africa are not only an environmental problem but also a social and economic concern. However, droughts research has not obtained the necessary attention in West Africa. Moreover, the dynamics of West African drought are not fully understood and among the studies that have considered droughts of West Africa, only a few have considered the link between Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and drought over West Africa. In this study, we look at how CORDEX models represent the relationship between the TSA SST and drought, precipitation and temperature over West Africa. Studies on drought done over West Africa used only precipitation in Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) to measure drought index. The use of precipitation alone is inadequate to give information about drought as evapotranspiration has a direct influence on drought. We recognize that evapotranspiration is an important process of water loss. Here, we use the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) where evapotranspiration is included in the calculation of the drought index.

Future changes of extreme events of sea cooling in the Black Sea region in winter period of end of XXI century

A. Savchenko (Marine Hydrophysical Institute of NAS of Ukraine, Sevastopol, Ukraine)

Abstract details
Future changes of extreme events of sea cooling in the Black Sea region in winter period of end of XXI century

A. Savchenko (1)
(1) Marine Hydrophysical Institute of NAS of Ukraine, Interaction of atmosphere-ocean, Sevastopol, Ukraine

Abstract content

The study of climate change at the end of the XXI century with increasing human intervention around the world is important and necessary. In particular, it is argued that the unprecedented magnitude of the positive trend in surface air temperature, observed since the mid XX century, largely due to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere associated with human activities. Moreover, this warming will continue in this century, and by the end of the century will be 2 - 5 ºC. At the same time, the spatial resolution of global models, despite their continuous improvement remains insufficient to display a regional atmospheric circulation. The method of "dynamical downscaling" takes an additional argument in regions with underdeveloped network of meteorological stations and difficult terrain. In the current global climate models do not take into account the Crimean Mountains, the Caucasus Mountains height not exceeding 2 km, and the Black Sea is posed less than 10 points calculation area. In this study, we used input data of global model INMCM4, which is a joint in international project CMIP5. Experiment of downscaling was carried out for area Black-Caspian Sea region to further revised data, i.e. the transition from large-scale calculations of global fields to regional estimates to obtain regional climate characteristics (temperature, turbulent heat fluxes, etc.), directly with the influence of regional factors with a spatial resolution of 25 x 25 km. Thus, for the Black Sea region were calculated turbulent heat fluxes in winter 2071-2100 (scenario RCP8.5). By control period used a data set of observations for the period 1971-2000 years. In the Black Sea basin was selected region's largest winter heat fluxes from the sea surface, which is the north-western basin. This water area is interesting that in the selected area of ​​river runoff about 80% of the total annual flow into the Black Sea. According to the scenario RCP8.5 average temperature in winter over the Black Sea basin will increase by 2 - 3 ºC at the end of XXI century. The following integral characteristics of the north-western shelf of the Black Sea are in the area of the sea bounded by the 44 – 47º N and 28 – 34º E. In the future heat fluxes of winter periods will change as follows: sensible heat flux will decrease by 3%, and latent heat flux will increase by 22% compared to the control period. Also Bowen ratio was calculated for the average winter values ​​that will decrease in the future to 0.34 although it was 0.43 in control period. This ratio was calculated in order to look at the share of sensible and latent heat in the total heat flux (sensible heat flux + latent heat flux = total heat flux) and look at their quantitative changes. Most interesting were the calculations of extreme events P = 95% (5% of winter days with the largest values ​​of total heat flux of the winter period) and their change in the future period. Thus it appears that the total flux extreme heat rise by 15% compared with the control period, but it is interesting that the most extreme P = 99% (1% of winter days with the highest values ​​of total heat flux of the winter period), which in the future will rise by 40%. It was also interesting to see the changes in the synoptic situation during extreme cooling P = 95% of north-western part of Black Sea in the winter, where a total heat flux used to build composites. Composite fields showed that after clustering atmospheric situation in Europe have been identified 2 main types (clusters). So the first type – a anticyclone on the Baltic sea, and the second type of synoptic situation – a cyclone in the district of the Caspian Sea. So in the future period the number of extreme events P = 95% in each cluster was approximately 50% to 50%. And compared to the control period, the number of events first type was little over 20% and second type almost 80% of all events P = 95%. That is, it can be concluded that the change not only the quantitative characteristics of extreme cooling, but also qualitative changes in the synoptic situation in Europe during extreme cooling of sea surface of Black Sea. The greatest danger in the future period(2071-2100) in Black Sea region are extreme events for P = 99%, while increasing total heat flux almost 40% compared to the control period and result in potential losses in fishing, oil (gas) industry, agriculture and the other in this region. Thus these results require further verification and analysis of possible risks in the future for the economy of the Black Sea region.

Early and late winter cold spells over the Euro-Mediterranean region

J. Luterbacher (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany), A. Toreti (European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy), E. Xoplaki (Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Giessen, Germany)

Abstract details
Early and late winter cold spells over the Euro-Mediterranean region

J. Luterbacher (1) ; A. Toreti (2) ; E. Xoplaki (1)
(1) Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Geography: climatology, climate dynamics and climate change, Giessen, Germany; (2) European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy

Abstract content

Temperature extremes have a strong impact on ecosystems, societies and economies; for instance in terms of impacts on agriculture, human health, energy consumption among others. Warm summer extremes and their impacts, i.e. summer heat waves, have extensively been investigated and characterised in several studies focusing on either recent past-current time or climate projections for the next decades. Less efforts have been, instead, devoted to cold spells occurring in the Euro-Mediterranean region, although also these extreme events can have significant impacts especially in a future warmer climate. Especially for the European south, sensitivity to cold weather is greater than the northern, cooler regions, while mortality is found to increase to a greater extent with a given fall in temperature in regions with warmer winters. This study aims at characterising future changes in the occurrence, intensity, and duration of cold spells and their spatial variability over the Euro-Mediterranean region. The focus is on early and late cold season events (December and March, respectively), especially conditional on the occurrence of a presiding warmer autumn (winter for the late season events). Mid- and late 21st century potential changes are investigated by using the recently released Euro-Cordex regional climate simulations both under the mid-range mitigation emission scenario RCP4.5 and the high emission scenario RCP8.5.

Analysis of extreme temperature indices of long-term homogenised temperature series in South Africa

M. Nxumalo (South African Weather Service, Pretoria, South Africa), A. Kruger, (South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract details
Analysis of extreme temperature indices of long-term homogenised temperature series in South Africa

M. Nxumalo (1) ; A. Kruger, (2)
(1) South African Weather Service, Climate department, Pretoria, South Africa; (2) South Africa, Climate department, Pretoria, South Africa

Abstract content

Homogenized data reduces the risk of significantly biased results in historical climate trend analysis. This study utilises for the first time long-term homogenised maximum and minimum daily temperature data sets for South Africa, spanning from the period 1931 to 2014. Previous extreme temperature trend analyses for South Africa only covered periods from 1961, which makes the current analyses significant in terms of the period of analysis, but also the number of stations that could be utilised. Whereas previous studies covered the analyses of the time series of fewer than 30 stations, the combinations of data from different stations in single time series through homogenisation increased the number of time series to 36. The time series were analysed using the extreme temperature indices developed by the WMO-ETCCDI team, which makes it possible to compare the results to other analyses across the world. Examples of the index trends analysed are the annual number of cool days, annual number of warm days, Diurnal temperature range, annual maximum and minimum temperatures, warm and cold nights and annual maximum warm spells, amongst others. This analysis forms part of the ongoing study in historical temperature trends in South Africa from in-situ measurements, by the South African Weather Service. 

Climate change impacts on social well-being of fishers' communities in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

M. M. Islam (Sylhet Agricultural University, Sylhet, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Climate change impacts on social well-being of fishers' communities in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

MM. Islam (1)
(1) Sylhet Agricultural University, Department of Coastal and Marine Fisheries, Sylhet, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Social well-being concept has garnered much interest in recent years as a multi-dimentional, holistic approach to understand and measure progress and problems. Though the concept of social well-being has operationalized across different disciplines, there are very few studies using this concept to show how climate change is affecting well-being of fishing communities. To fill this knowledge gap, this study employs social well-being approach to study the impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of mangrove fishers’ communities in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Qualitative data collection tools were employed; a semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect the empirical data from four fishing communities. Given that, in recent past two consecutive cyclones- Sidr (hit Bangladesh coast on 15th November, 2007), and Aila (struck Bangladesh coast 25th May, 2009) affected a major part of the Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem with great devastation. In addition, the region faces other environmental degradations such as saline water intrusion, occasional droughts as well as degraded resources base of the forest. Thus, ongoing environmental changes in the Sundarbans and its effects on the communities provide a suitable setting to study the impacts on climate changes on the well-being of the residing population. Following the WeD framework of wellbeing, social well-being has three dimensions, material, subjective and relational that together constitutes human welfare. Cyclones Sidr and Aila caused loss of different ‘material’ values for the fishing communities in several ways. Rising tidal waves, associated with cyclones washed away productive assets, housing, and standing crops in the field, employment opportunities in alternative occupations were also severely squeezed, that altogether rendered in income loss of the communities. Immediate aftermath of cyclone Aila, most fishers took shelters in makeshift built on embankments that severely degraded their standard of living. Increased salinization after cyclone struck caused acute crisis of drinking water and loss of biodiversity that reduced overall environmental quality of region. Many fishers expressed their shocks, fears after seeing that rising water washing away their belongings before their eye. Living in constant economic hardship, depending on external supports for survival for longer period, school drop out and increased child labour undermined fishers’ aspirations and confidence for a secured future. In case of relational values, ‘social cohesion’ of fishers’ communities traditionally served as buffer during the period of crisis. However, individual competition to receive relief at the cost of others’ interest negatively affected the community bonding and dispelled social capital to certain extend. The responses from the government mostly gave emphasis on of materialistic rehabilitation of the affected communities. Following this new understandings through social well-being lens, the present study submits for a more holistic, more responsive policy making in Bangladesh by taking consideration into multiple dimensions of human welfare that are affected by climate change impacts. 

The potential risk of climate change and extreme climatic events on coastal cities of Nigeria

S. Ayanlade (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria, Ile-Ife, Osun, France)

Abstract details
The potential risk of climate change and extreme climatic events on coastal cities of Nigeria

S. Ayanlade (1)
(1) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria, Dept. of Geography,, Ile-Ife, Osun, France

Abstract content

This study examines the potential risk of climate change and extreme climatic events on coastal cities of Nigeria. The study applied satellites data,  Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) methodologies to assess the environmental and societal implications and the risk of climatic events such as flooding, coastal erosion and seas surface rise on coastal cities of Nigeria. The risk of climate variability and extreme weather events   cannot be overemphasized on urban settlements that occupy millions of people in Nigeria. It is obvious from the report of Nigerian National Population Commission (NPC, 2006) that a large percentage of Nigeria’s urban population lives in coastal cities.  Previous studies have reported that Climate change has been affecting and will continue to affect almost, if not all, the sectors of the urban economy including the most sensitive ones such as water and health sectors. Such impacts and the risk of climatic event are now obvious in many coastal cities of Nigeria. The impacts of climate change and urban risk may be felt also by a wide spectrum of socio-economic variables like human health, transport, energy, industry and other service sectors in the coastal cities. Increases in population growth rates in the coastal cities of Nigeria, combined with a likelihood of a 1m sea-level rise, could create high risk on tourism-oriented economies, ecology, and other societal implications. Though, the report of IPCC, (2007) has shown that there are some uncertainties about the nature and magnitude of risk and vulnerability to climatic changes, it is necessary to make some assumptions about risk of changes in climate in order to assess potential such risk  on coastal urban settlements of Nigeria. Thus, the general objectives of this study has been to assess the spatiotemporal risk of climatic event; map out a composite of scenarios for climate change impacts; to examine  the risk of climatic extreme events on coastal cities of Nigeria; and their implications on physical, economic and social environments. This study holds the benefit for better understanding of a need to have a coastal zone management plan to address the possible coastal cities risk indicated in this study.

 

Capability of CORDEX RCMs in simulating extreme rainfall events over South Africa

S. Abba Omar (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa), A. Babatunde (Climate Research Analysis Group (CSAG), Cape Town, South Africa)

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Capability of CORDEX RCMs in simulating extreme rainfall events over South Africa

S. Abba Omar (1) ; A. Babatunde (2)
(1) University of Cape Town, Environmental and Geographical Science, Cape Town, South Africa; (2) Climate Research Analysis Group (CSAG), Department of environmental and geographical science, university of cape town, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

In South Africa, extreme rainfall events often lead to widespread destruction, damage infrastructure, displace communities, strain water management and even destroy lives. Past studies have shown that reliable predictions of extreme rainfall events from regional climate models (RCMs) could help reduce the impact of these events. The present study evaluates the ability of nine RCMs in simulating extreme rainfall events over South Africa, focusing on the Western Cape (WC) and east coast region (EC). This study defines an extreme rainfall over a location as rainfall that is equal or above the 95th percentile of the rainfall distribution at that location, and defines widespread extreme rainfall events (WEREs) over an area as events during which more than 50% of the grid-points in the area experience extreme rainfall. The 95th percentile threshold values were calculated over 11 years (1989-2008) of South Africa’s daily rainfall data from nine RCMS which participated in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The simulations were compared to two observation datasets (TRMM and GPCP), and to ERAINT rainfall data to understand whether these RCMs improve on the results from ERAINT. A self organizing map (SOM) was used to characterize WEREs identified in all the datasets into archetypal groups, and ERAINT data is used to describe the underlying circulations for each archetypal rainfall pattern. The number of WEREs mapped to each rainfall pattern for each dataset allows us to get an idea of whether certain RCMs are more likely to simulate certain rainfall patterns. 

The results show that RCA35, REMO and WRF seem to be the best at simulating the 95th percentile threshold values over the whole of South Africa. However, it was found that CCLM seems to do the best over the WC and PRECIS does the best over the EC. Downscaling ERAINT with CCLM produces fewer WEREs, whereas downscaling ERAINT with PRECIS produces a higher number of WEREs simulated over both areas (WC an EC).  The SOMs identifies five major patterns of WERE over areas. The first pattern (TRW) links WERE in WC or EC with tropical activities, producing a tropical temperate through that is truncated at the coast. The second pattern links WERE in WC or EC with mid-latitude rainfall activities(MLW). The third pattern produces an isolated WERE over each area (ISW).  The forth pattern, which is unique to WC, links   WERE in WC with rainfall activities over the Agulhas current. The fifth pattern, which is unique to EC, links WEREs in EC with both tropical and mid-latitude rainfall activities, hence producing TTTs. PRECIS has the tendency to overestimate the frequency of TRW WEREs over both the EC and WC whereas, WRF only shows this tendency over the EC.  ARPEGE simulates more WEREs associated with ISW over the EC region and over the WC WRF and CRCM5 underestimate the frequencies of these events. Over the EC the frequency of WEREs associated with mid-latitude rainfall activity seems to be simulated reasonably well by the RCMs whereas over the WC most of the RCMs overestimate the frequency of these types of WEREs.

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Its Use to Assess Drought Occurrences in Cameroon over Recent Decades

F. Mkankam Kamga (Université des Montagnes, Bangangté, Cameroon)

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Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Its Use to Assess Drought Occurrences in Cameroon over Recent Decades

F. Mkankam Kamga (1)
(1) Université des Montagnes, Bangangté, Cameroon

Abstract content

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is computed and analyzed using 55 years of precipitation data recorded in 24 observation stations in Cameroon along with University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) spatialized data. Four statistical distribution functions (gamma, exponential, Weibull, and lognormal) are first fitted to data accumulated for various time scales, and the appropriate functions are selected on the basis of the Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit statistic. For short time scales (up to 6 months) and for stations above 10°N, the gamma distribution is the most frequent choice; below this belt, the Weibull distribution predominates. For longer than 6-month time scales, there are no consistent patterns of fitted distributions. After calculating the SPI in the usual way, operational drought thresholds that are based on an objective method are determined at each station. These thresholds are useful in drought-response decision making. From SPI time series, episodes of severe and extreme droughts are identified at many stations during the study period. Moderate/severe drought occurrences are intra-annual in short time scales and interannual for long time scales (greater than 9 months), usually spanning many years. The SPI calculated from CRU gridded precipitation shows similar results, with some discrepancies at longer scales. Thus, the spatialized dataset can be used to extend such studies to a larger region—especially data-scarce areas.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation over the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

J. Panthi (The Small Earth Nepal (SEN), Kathmandu, Nepal)

Abstract details
Spatial and Temporal Variability of Precipitation over the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

J. Panthi (1)
(1) The Small Earth Nepal (SEN), Research, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract content

Landslides, floods, and droughts are recurring natural disasters in Nepal related to too much or too little water. The summer monsoon contributes more than 80% of annual rainfall, and rainfall spatial and inter-annual variation is very high. The Gandaki River, one of the three major rivers of Nepal and one of the major tributaries of the Ganges River, covers all agro-ecological zones in the central part of Nepal. Time series tests were applied for different agro-ecological zones of the Gandaki River Basin (GRB) for rainfall trends of four seasons (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter) from 1981 to 2012. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's methods were used to determine the trends. Decadal anomalies relative to the long term average were analyzed using the APHRODITE precipitation product. Trends in number of rainy days and timing of the monsoon were also analyzed. We found that the post-monsoon, pre-monsoon and winter rainfalls are decreasing significantly in most of the zones but monsoon rainfall is increasing throughout the basin. In the hill region, the annual rainfall is increasing but the rainy days do not show any trend. There is a tendency of the late departure of monsoon from Nepal, indicating an increase in its duration. These seasonally and topographically variable trends may have significant impacts for the agriculture and livestock smallholders that form the majority of the population in the GRB.

Instability intraseasonal of rainfall and its implications on agricultural activities in the middle of Benin Republic (West Africa)

I. Yabi (University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), S. Zakari (University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), P. A. B. Chabi (University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), F. Afouda (University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin)

Abstract details
Instability intraseasonal of rainfall and its implications on agricultural activities in the middle of Benin Republic (West Africa)

I. Yabi (1) ; S. Zakari (2) ; PAB. Chabi (2) ; F. Afouda (2)
(1) University of Abomey-Calavi, Departmnt of Geography, Abomey-Calavi, Benin; (2) University of Abomey-Calavi, Department of geography, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Abstract content

Until now rainfed agriculture is the main occupation of the people and is the basis of socio-economic development of rural areas of Benin (food security, monetary income). Furthermore inter-annual variability (which has already been the subject of several studies), it is necessary to understand the intra-seasonal rainfall perturbations which depend mainly cropping calendars in this region known for its agricultural potentials.

Daily rainfall amounts of 4 stations (Dassa-Zoumé, Savalou Savè and Bantè) for the period 1941 to 2010, obtained the National Direction of Meteorology (DNM) were used. Determining the beginning of the end and the length of the dry season was done according to the criteria Gueye and Sivakumar (1992) used by Sane et al. (2008). Similarly, the frequency analysis of the beginning, the end and the length of the seasons was made at the frequencies 8 years out of 10, 5 years out of 10 and 2 years out of 10 by calculating the cumulative frequency to better appreciate the risks. Moreover, years of rupture (in season length) were verified by Pettitt test at significance level α = 5 %. Moreover, the frequency and magnitude of dry sequences (false start of the rains, drought pockets at the heart of seasons) and wet sequences (risk of flooding and water profusion) were analyzed (Zakari et al. 2012) to better characterize the qualities of the seasons.

On average, the first (large) rainy season lasts 120 days (3rd decade of March in the second decade of July-while the second (small) rainy season is longer than 70 days (3rd decade of August to October ). this distribution allows two crop seasons per year (farmers cropping calendars are modeled on that distribution), although the second is short and uncertain. But in reality, the region is characterized by a high occurrence of late start of the rains (between 15 and 30% for the great season, between 10 and 25 % for early season) and ends early (20 and 35% for the great season and 10 and 20 % for early season). It follows a significant trend towards shorter lengths of the seasons, making the crop seasons uncertain. in these episodes add the appearance of dry spells especially at the beginning at the end of the seasons that negatively affect agricultural activities. The degradation of the quality of rainy season has increased since the 1970s in keeping with the decline in seasonal and annual rainfall totals. It should be noted that the relative improvement of annual rainfall totals recorded since the 1990s has not induced an improvement in the quality of agricultural seasons in the region. So the years considered normal (average) or even surplus concerned with intra-seasonal volatility rain. In this context of quality degradation rainy seasons, the region has per moment of high rainfall sequences in the heart of the seasons, causing disastrous floods for crops and / or harvests.

It is therefore appropriate that agricultural promotion policies and strategies integrate these intra-seasonal rainfall fluctuations while taking into account the knowledge and logical farmers in order to define strategies for adapting agriculture to climate change in this region.

A Study of Multi-decadal Global Sea Surface Temperature Variability Based on CMIP5 and Reanalysis Data

L. Zhang, (University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom), C. Beaulieu, (University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom), S. Henson, (University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
A Study of Multi-decadal Global Sea Surface Temperature Variability Based on CMIP5 and Reanalysis Data

L. Zhang, (1) ; C. Beaulieu, (1) ; S. Henson, (1)
(1) University of Southampton, Ocean and earth science, Southampton, United Kingdom

Abstract content

The analysis of long-term changes in the distribution (mean, variance and extremes) of climate variables is essential for a full understanding of climate change and its impacts. The majority of climate change studies have focused on changes in the mean climate, therefore underestimating how changes in climate variability may impact biological and food systems. Observed and projected long-term changes in climate variability still lacks investigation.

Noticing this, we explore the patterns of sea surface temperature variability by looking at the observed sea surface temperature data record from 1854 to 2014. We investigate the global yearly and monthly sea surface temperature variability changes. For example, annual mean sea surface temperature and intra-annual variability (measured by the standard deviation and range). We also investigate the global and regional decadal changes in sea surface temperature variability, for example, using normalized probability density functions for different periods of anomalies in the data set.

In addition to the analysis of observational data, we assess how sea surface temperature variability may change in the future using model projections. We analyse the model projections by targeting the RCP8.5 (business-as-usual emission scenario) and the RCP4.5 (mitigation scenario) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This allows us to verify whether mitigation has an impact on projected changes in climate variability.

Comprehending the changes in climate variability is important for our society. Revealing the potential patterns of sea surface temperature variability can help us better understand the climate variability. 

Rectification of El Nino–Southern Oscillation into Climate Anomalies of Decadal and Longer Time Scales: Results from Forced Ocean GCM Experiments

D.-Z. Sun (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, United States of America), T. Zhang, (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, United States of America), Y. Sun, (Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China), Y. Yu, (Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Rectification of El Nino–Southern Oscillation into Climate Anomalies of Decadal and Longer Time Scales: Results from Forced Ocean GCM Experiments

DZ. Sun (1) ; T. Zhang, (1) ; Y. Sun, (2) ; Y. Yu, (3)
(1) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ESRL/PSD, Boulder, United States of America; (2) Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of oceanology, Qingdao, China; (3) Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of atmospheric physics,, Beijing, China

Abstract content

To better understand the causes of climate change in the tropical Pacific on the decadal and longer time scales, the rectification effect of ENSO events is delineated by contrasting the time-mean state of two forced ocean GCM experiments. In one of them, the long-term mean surface wind stress of 1950–2011 is applied, while in the other, the surface wind stress used is the long-term mean surface wind stress of 1950–2011 plus the interannual monthly anomalies over the period. Thus, the long-term means of the surface wind stress in the two runs are identical. The two experiments also use the same relaxation boundary conditions, that is, the SST is restored to the same prescribed values. The two runs, however, are found to yield significantly different mean climate for the tropical Pacific. The mean state of the run with interannual fluctuations in the surface winds is found to have a cooler warm pool, warmer thermocline water, and warmer eastern surface Pacific than the run without interannual fluctuations in the surface winds. The warming of the eastern Pacific has a pattern that resembles the observed decadal warming. In particular, the pattern features an off-equator maximum as the observed decadal warming. The spatial pattern of the time-mean upper-ocean temperature differences between the two experiments is shown to resemble that of the differences in the nonlinear dynamic heating, underscoring the role of the nonlinear ocean dynamics in the rectification. The study strengthens the suggestion that rectification of ENSO can be a viable mechanism for climate change of decadal and longer time scales.

Observed connections between temperature increase and the altitude of snowfall / snow pack in the Swiss Alps

M. Rebetez (WSL Swiss federal research institute, Neuchatel, Switzerland), G. Klein, (University of Neuchatel, Neuchatel, Switzerland), C. Marty, (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland), C. Rixen, (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland), Y. Vitasse, (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland), G. Serquet, (University of Neuchatel, Neuchatel, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Observed connections between temperature increase and the altitude of snowfall / snow pack in the Swiss Alps

M. Rebetez (1) ; G. Klein, (2) ; C. Marty, (3) ; C. Rixen, (3) ; Y. Vitasse, (3) ; G. Serquet, (2)
(1) WSL Swiss federal research institute, Neuchatel, Switzerland; (2) University of Neuchatel, Institute of geography, Neuchatel, Switzerland; (3) WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Davos, Switzerland

Abstract content

The consequences of global warming are particularly visible in mountain areas. The impact of changing temperatures on the snow to rain ratio is highly critical for alpine ecosystems as well as for winter tourism. Knowledge of the decrease in snow amount is still poor, due both to high interannual variability and to the frequent lack of data.

Here, we analyse snowfall and snow pack for up to 100 years at 140 stations, spanning elevations from 200 to 3500 m asl in Switzerland. Our method allows to assess the impact of changing temperatures on snowfall while minimizing the impact of variability in precipitation frequency and intensity.

Our results show the connection between the decrease in snowfall / snow pack and the increase in temperature. This decrease was stronger at locations with temperatures closer to the melting point. These locations depend both on elevation and season. The current frequency of snowfall for December, January and February are similar to those of the 1960s for November and March. These changes also result in a decrease in snowpack and in earlier snowmelt, particularly at higher elevation.

The transfer in altitude of snowfall affects the beginning and end of the ski seasons. Currently approximately every second precipitation day already consists of rain up to 1400 m asl in November and March.

The amount of snow available for water storage and runoff during the spring and summer months is declining, because more and more winter precipitation will directly contribute to runoff. Impacts can also be expected on the alpine vegetation, which will experience a shorter snow season and possibly be more exposed to late spring frost events, irrespective of variability or changes in precipitation.

Analysis of the Effects of Climate Variability on Crop Yield in Imo State of Nigeria

F. Okorie (Imo State University, Owerri, Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Analysis of the Effects of Climate Variability on Crop Yield in Imo State of Nigeria

F. Okorie (1)
(1) Imo State University, Owerri, Geography and Environmental Management, Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Agriculture is one of the sectors that are strongly affected by climate variability and change especially in developing countries of the world which Nigeria is among. Africa is considered the most vulnerable region in the world in terms of climate variations and change due to its physical and socio-economic characteristics. In Nigeria, it is well known that climate has varied in time and space and it will continue to vary in future. Many variations in rainfall particularly have occurred for the different climatic regions and individual locations in Nigeria. In the Southeast, Imo state for example, droughts have been relatively less persistent, while rainfall is observed to be increasing and temperature increases and reduces moderately over the years compared with other states in the Northern parts of the country.  Many parts of Imo state in Southeastern Nigeria experience flood disasters following excessive rainfall which destroy their farmland and wash away their crops. One major issue with respect to climate variability involves its influence on crop yields. Some studies have shown that fluctuations in rainfall and temperature regimes are the atmospheric driving forces that are responsible for the changes in the climate systems of Imo state and other parts of the Southeastern Nigeria. The yield and quality of food crops is central to the wellbeing of humans and is directly affected by changes in climatic systems. Climate variability affects crop cultivation, uncertainties in the onset of the farming season due to changes in rainfall characteristics ( early rain may not be sustained and crops planted at that instance may become smothered by heat waves) can lead to an unusual sequence of crop planting which results to poor harvest. Extreme weather events such as thunderstorms, heavy rainfall and extreme temperature also devastate farmlands and leads to poor yield of crops. Pest and crop diseases migrate in response to climatic variations and change. In  the study, 15 years (1999-2013) climatic data (rainfall and temperature) generated from the archives of Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) and crop yield data on selected crops  from Agricultural development program (ADP), Owerri, Imo state  were examined . After data analysis, the result shows fluctuations in temperature and rainfall pattern in the state with negative effects on crop yield, which also affects humans socioeconomically. Based on this, it is suggested that farmers should adopt good farm management techniques in order to adapt to the prevailing climate variability.

Average Bias of Diurnal Precipitation Over Maritime-Continent

F. Royan (Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Jakarta, Indonesia)

Abstract details
Average Bias of Diurnal Precipitation Over Maritime-Continent

F. Royan (1)
(1) Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics, Research and Development Center, Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract content

Numerical simulation of diurnal precipitation over maritime-continent were inverstigated using WRFV3.5.1. The numerical model use input data from GFS and from GFS+RTGSST data then the average bias from both input data shows that the precipitation is bigger in the afternoon untill morning  from 12 UTC until 00 UTC. In March, Most of the diurnal precipitation are on southern part of Indonesia, In June, most of the diurnal precipitation are almost around Indonesia, in September, most of the diurnal precipitation are on northern part of Indonesia and in December, most of the diurnal precipitation are around Indonesia, except south of Java. It’s also revealed, that the diurnal precipitation over ocean is strongest in June rather than Land.

Drought monitoring with root zone soil moisture derived from ASCAT satellite data over the East Asian region

J. H. Lee (UNIST, Ulsan, Republic of Korea), J. Im (UNIST, Ulsan, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
Drought monitoring with root zone soil moisture derived from ASCAT satellite data over the East Asian region

JH. Lee (1) ; J. Im (1)
(1) UNIST, Urban and env engineering, Ulsan, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

Several studies showed that semi-arid regions of Asia are vulnerable to climate change induced drought (Alimullah Miyan , 2014). While drought has often occurred over the East Asia, we have little understanding of drought at a large scale in that region. Accordingly, there is a need to establish an appropriate drought monitoring and prediction system. There are different types of drought such as agricultural drought or hydrological drought (Rhee et al., 2010). The factors that influence drought are interconnected through land-atmosphere interactions. One of the major factors is soil moisture, which can be effectively used to monitor agricultural drought.  The surface soil moisture information from ASCAT satellite data is employed to provide root zone soil moisture for drought monitoring. This approach suggests several merits, when compared to the MODIS Vegetation Index-based indicators or precipitation-based indices often applied to drought monitoring. First, it is difficult to characterize the dynamics of soil dryness with the vegetation indices such as leaf-area-index (LAI) or normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), as some vegetation species well grow up in dry soils. Secondly, it is difficult to monitor the deep soil that is actually important for predicting the agricultural productivity solely with the precipitation indices, because it is still unknown whether precipitation will infiltrate into the soils, evapotranspirate, or run off.

For these reasons, root zone soil moisture is considered a key indicator for agricultural drought monitoring due to its direct relationship with agricultural productivity and its climatic implication over the land (Lee, 2014). In this study, we use an exponential filter to infer root zone soil moisture from the satellite-retrieved surface soil moisture dynamics. The spatial distribution of soil moisture profiles over this region is evaluated with other datasets such as SMOS and ECMWF data. The 1D soil moisture profile is validated with newly obtained in-situ observations (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture) from the Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Scientific Research and Prediction Initiative (MAHASRI) research program under the frame of The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX). The role of soil moisture on the East Asian monsoon circulation is also assessed.

Reference

1 Alimullah M, Droughts in Asian least developed countries: Vulnerability and sustainability, 2014, Weather and Climate Extremes, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.003.

2 Lee, J. H. 2014. Spatial-scale prediction of the SVAT soil hydraulic variables characterizing stratified soils on the Tibetan Plateau from an EnKF analysis of SAR surface soil moisture. Vadose Zone Journal.

3 Rhee, J, Im, J, Carbone, G.J. 2010. Monitoring agricultural drought for arid and humid regions using multi-sensor remote sensing data, Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 114, Pages 2875-2887, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.07.005

Climatic trend in Nepal Himalaya since early 17th century as reconstructed from the ring-width chronologies of multiple tree species

N. P. Gaire (Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Lalitpur, Nepal), D. R. Bhuju, (Central Department of Environmental Science, Kathmandu, Nepal), U. K. Thapa, (Department of Geography, Environment and Society, Minneapolis, United States of America), M. Carrer, (Department of Land and Agro-forest Environments, Padova, Italy), S. Bhandari, (Central Department of Environmental Science, Kathmandu, Nepal), M. Koirala, (Central Department of Environmental Science, Kathmandu, Nepal), S. K. Shah, (Birbal Sahni Institute of Paleobotany, Lucknow, India), R. Timileina, (College of Applied Sciences, Kathmandu, Nepal)

Abstract details
Climatic trend in Nepal Himalaya since early 17th century as reconstructed from the ring-width chronologies of multiple tree species

NP. Gaire (1) ; DR. Bhuju, (2) ; UK. Thapa, (3) ; M. Carrer, (4) ; S. Bhandari, (2) ; M. Koirala, (2) ; SK. Shah, (5) ; R. Timileina, (6)
(1) Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Faculty of Science, Lalitpur, Nepal; (2) Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan university, Kathmandu, Nepal; (3) Department of Geography, Environment and Society, University of minnesota, Minneapolis, United States of America; (4) Department of Land and Agro-forest Environments, University of padova, Padova, Italy; (5) Birbal Sahni Institute of Paleobotany, Lucknow, India; (6) College of Applied Sciences, Kathmandu, Nepal

Abstract content

Climate change in Nepal is more pronounced compared to other countries or regions. Centrally located in the Himalayan range, its average annual increase in temperature is 0.06 °C since late 1970s while the precipitation pattern is much erratic. Even within the country, the warming trend is double in the high mountains than that in its foothills or lowland Tarai conjoint to Gangetc plain. The future projection of the trend is deemed necessary; however, available meteorological data is too short for this purpose. Taking advantage of Nepal’s rich tree diversity distributed in diverse topography of varied aspect and high elevation range, we carried out dendro-climatological study in 15 different sites of Nepal Himalaya from east to west that included eight protected areas of the high mountains. The objective of the study was to reconstruct the past climate of Nepal Himalaya. For the purpose, over 1400 tree core samples collected from major tree species, viz. Abies spectabilis, Abies pindrow, Betula utilis, Juniperus recurva, Larix grifithiana, Picea smithiana, Tsuga dumosa were analyzed following standard dendrochronological techniques. A positive correlation was observed among the chronologies of different species within and between different sites indicating some common climatic factors limiting the growth of these trees, and this gave us the basis for climate reconstruction.

Response function analysis revealed that pre-monsoon temperature (March-May) had an indirect relationship with growth of most of the species while such positive relation with precipitation of pre-monsoon to monsoon (March-July) depended also on the site condition. In some treeline sites, winter climate had significant influence for the growth in subsequent growing period of the some of these species. The seasonal correlation analysis with climate data for 1899-2012 revealed a significant indirect relationship between the ring width and spring temperature (r = -0.56) and positive correlation with spring precipitation (r> 0.50). The temporal stability of correlation model was tested by dividing the annual time series data into two equal halves as early and late period and found significant with correlation of r = -0.51 and -0.62, respectively. The stability of the models led to the reconstruction of March–May average temperature for the past 373 years (AD 1640 to 2012).

We used a simple linear regression model for temperature reconstruction. The validation of the reconstruction model was assessed with validation statistics such as reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) using split sample procedure i.e., by dividing the calibration period into two equal sub-periods. The model was further validated through spatial correlation with gridded temperature data. This temperature reconstruction identified several periods of warming and cooling, however, it did not show the significant pattern of cooling during the Little Ice Age except few cold episodes. Similarly the reconstructed precipitation for 311 years (AD 1702-2013) showed several high events and low events of precipitation. High precipitation events were seen in AD 1721-1740, 1751-1765, 1819-1830, 1882-1888 and 1912-1922. On the other hand low precipitation event was in AD 1741-1720, 1741-1750, 1780-1788, 1800-1818 and 1922-1975.

The correlation of spring temperature with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) index of different region of the equatorial Pacific viz., NINO1.2, NINO3, NINO3.4 and NINO4 and extended multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) was carried out. It presented a significant negative correlations with monsoon and post monsoons seasons. These negative relationships suggest that warm (cool) spring season over the western Nepal Himalaya region are associated with cool (warm) SSTs in the following seasons. Furthermore spatial correlation of spring temperature with Sea Surface Temperature showed similar negative correlation in the equatorial belt of the Pacific Ocean. The relationship showed the climate of western Nepal has linkages with spatio-temporal climatic variability at a global scale.

 

Key words: Climate change, dendroclimatology, climate reconstruction, Abies spectabilis, Betula utilis, Nepal Himalaya 

On the characteristics of climate change in Scandinavia and its association with the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea ice

Y. Chen (Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway), S. Stefan (Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway)

Abstract details
On the characteristics of climate change in Scandinavia and its association with the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea ice

Y. Chen (1) ; S. Stefan (1)
(1) Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Climate Data Service, Bergen, Norway

Abstract content

We analyzed some characteristics of climate change over Scandinavia using CRU data (1901- 2012), and both temperature and precipitation exhibit well-documented positive trends. However, the spatial variability of the trends is large with some areas showing high significance (northern Norway and Sweden) and others none at all (central Finland). The scenarios simulated by NorESM and ECHAM6 models exhibit continued warming and increased rainfall in the 21st century over Scandinavia. Given the well-known zero-lag relationships between the NAO and both temperature and precipitation, responses of sea ice to external forcing and its potential influence on the NAO are of interest. The summer  sea ice, fall-early winter NAO relationship suggests that in a warming climate,  and under continued decreasing sea ice conditions, the tendency will be towards more positive NAO conditions leading to a wetter, warmer Scandinavia and potentially drier conditions in central-southern Europe. Initial modeling experiments appear to support such speculation (e.g., Folland et al., 2009) but more research is needed.

Mechanisms relating the MJO to intraseasonal variability of the surface climate in the Americas

M. Natoli (University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America), E. H. Berbery (University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, United States of America)

Abstract details
Mechanisms relating the MJO to intraseasonal variability of the surface climate in the Americas

M. Natoli (1) ; EH. Berbery (2)
(1) University of Maryland, Earth system science interdisciplinary center, College Park, Maryland, United States of America; (2) University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center/CICS-MD, College Park, Maryland, United States of America

Abstract content

This study uses the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) to revisit the dynamical mechanisms associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that affect the surface climate over the Americas.  During the boreal cold season, North America sees a notable eastward propagation in temperature anomalies through the MJO evolution.  Despite the smaller land area, temperature effects in South America during the austral cold season appear clearer than in North America and more appropriately connected to MJO convection. This is especially true over subtropical portions of the continent. These structures are related to the MJO enhanced tropical convection that can induce anomalous upper-tropospheric cyclonic circulation on the leading edge of the MJO enhanced convection and anomalous anti-cyclonic circulations trailing the convection. During each hemisphere’s winter season, and connected with these patterns, enhanced direct circulations favor changes in the subtropical and polar jet streams.   Intra-seasonal changes in the divergent circulation in upper levels modulate the Rossby Wave Source centers around 30-45° latitude  and the propagation of Rossby waves, as noted in the wave activity fluxes, into the extratropics inducing near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies. 

During the corresponding summer seasons, the diagnostics show that precipitation patterns are more directly connected to the convection anomalies rather than the circulation anomalies. The Americas see enhanced precipitation in the monsoon regions when the large scale upper tropospheric divergence associated with the MJO convection passes over the western hemisphere. Similarly, suppressed precipitation in these regions is observed when the large scale upper tropospheric convergence passes over the continents.

Volcanic Eruptions, Carbonaceous Aerosols and ENSO Events

K. Potts (Kyna Keju Pty Ltd, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia)

Abstract details
Volcanic Eruptions, Carbonaceous Aerosols and ENSO Events

K. Potts (1)
(1) Kyna Keju Pty Ltd, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Abstract content

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are the dominant mode of variability in the global climate responsible for significant variations across the world including drought in Australia and Indonesia, floods in the Americas and a generally increased global temperature. An El Niño commences when the Trade Winds blowing across the Pacific Ocean relax, reduce in strength or even reverse. This is a major perturbation of the Walker Cell, the major zonal atmospheric circulation system over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and, as the literature, IPCC and the USA Climate Change Science Program suggest that aerosols can affect the large-scale atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle I examine the relationship between certain volcanic eruptions and carbonaceous aerosol plumes and ENSO events and demonstrate a causal link exists between the eruptions, aerosols and ENSO which logically must be that the volcanic eruptions and aerosols trigger and then sustain ENSO events until the eruptions end and the aerosol plume dissipates enabling the climate system to recover to a non-ENSO state.

Changes induced by dust on West African Monsoon features

N. E. Toure (Universite Felix Houphouet Boigny, Cocody Abidjan / Federal University of Technology Akure, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), A. Konare (Universite Felix Houphouet Boigny, Cocody, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), K. O. Ogunjobi (Federal University of Technology Akure, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), S. Silue (Universite Peleforo Gon Coulibaly de Korhogo, Korhogo, Ivory Coast), I. Diallo (Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal), A. Diedhiou (Institute of Research for Development (IRD), Grenoble Cedex 9, France)

Abstract details
Changes induced by dust on West African Monsoon features

NE. Toure (1) ; A. Konare (2) ; KO. Ogunjobi (3) ; S. Silue (4) ; I. Diallo (5) ; A. Diedhiou (6)
(1) Universite Felix Houphouet Boigny, Cocody Abidjan / Federal University of Technology Akure, UFR SSMT, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Universite Felix Houphouet Boigny, Cocody, Ufr sst, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (3) Federal University of Technology Akure, Meteorology and climate science, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (4) Universite Peleforo Gon Coulibaly de Korhogo, Physics, Korhogo, Ivory Coast; (5) Université Cheikh Anta Diop, Ecole superieure polytechnique, Dakar, Senegal; (6) Institute of Research for Development (IRD), LTHE - University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble Cedex 9, France

Abstract content

The generation and transportation of dust from North Africa are thought to modulate the West African Monsoon (WAM) features. In this study we investigated the relationship between the Saharan Air Layer located above Atlantic Ocean (OSAL) and WAM features, including Monsoon flow, African Easterly Jet (AEJ), and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) over West Africa using the RegCM4 regional model. Toward this purpose, we performed two sets of experiments from 2000-2010, one including dust and one without dust effect over the West African domain, encompassing the whole West Africa and a large part of the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. An Intercomparison of the two simulations show that dust load into the atmosphere has an effect on both the wind and temperature structure at different levels, inducing observed changes in WAM system during JJAS seasons. These changes lead to (1) a westward shift and slight strength of AEJ core over tropical Atlantic which is associated to (2) a weak TEJ and (3) lastly to West Africa monsoon penetration over land. Moreover despite the prescribed Sea Surface Temperature, correlations have been found between Aerosol Optical Depths in OSAL and wind, suggesting that mechanism relationship between dust and WAM features is well reproduced by RegCM4.

Assessment of Regional Climate Models over Côte d'Ivoire and Analysis of Future Projec-tions over West Africa

K. Kouadio (LAPA-MF, Université Felix Hou-phouët-Boigny; WASCAL,Federal University of Technology Akure, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), A. Konare (Universite Felix Houphouet Boigny, Cocody, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), A. Diawara (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), K. Dje (Société d’exploitation et développement Aéroportuaire et Météorologique, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), V. O. Ajayi (WASCAL,GRP-WACS, Federal University of Technology Akure, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), A. Diedhiou (Institute of Research for Development (IRD), Grenoble Cedex 9, France)

Abstract details
Assessment of Regional Climate Models over Côte d'Ivoire and Analysis of Future Projec-tions over West Africa

K. Kouadio (1) ; A. Konare (2) ; A. Diawara (3) ; K. Dje (4) ; VO. Ajayi (5) ; A. Diedhiou (6)
(1) LAPA-MF, Université Felix Hou-phouët-Boigny; WASCAL,Federal University of Technology Akure, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Universite Felix Houphouet Boigny, Cocody, Ufr ssmt, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (3) University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (4) Société d’exploitation et développement Aéroportuaire et Météorologique, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (5) WASCAL,GRP-WACS, Federal University of Technology Akure, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (6) Institute of Research for Development (IRD), LTHE - University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble Cedex 9, France

Abstract content

The ability of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in AMMA-ENSEMBLES project is assessed over six meteorological stations in Côte d’Ivoire. The ensemble mean of the models is also used for the prediction of climate change over West Africa. The study focused on two periods: the period 1995-2005, the present-day simulations, is used to evaluate the skills of the models over the country and the years 2010-2013, for assessment of the future climate change scenario used. The results show that the skills of the models vary from one station to another and from one season to another. None of the models considered, presents an excellent performance over the entire country and in all the seasons. Generally, the ensemble mean of all the models presents better results when compared with the observation. These results suggest that the choice of any model for study over the country may depend on the focus of interest: intensity or variability of the rain and also on area of interest. The projection for 2020-2040, future climate change over West Africa shows that the Sahel exhibits a tendency to be drier while wetter Guinean coast is observed

Temperature effects of the large volcanic eruption events during the past 100 years over China

Z. Hao (institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China), D. Sun (institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China), J. Zheng (institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Temperature effects of the large volcanic eruption events during the past 100 years over China

Z. Hao (1) ; D. Sun (1) ; J. Zheng (1)
(1) institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Abstract content

Based on the meteorological temperature data and the records of volcano events, the temporal and spatial temperature characteristics after the different types of large volcanoes which were classified by the geographic latitudes were identified in China five climatic regions, and the effects of the large volcanic events on regional temperature were analyzed. The results showed that there were significant differences between the temperature variation during winter years and the summer years after different large volcanic eruptions, northeast region was warmer in winter year after the large volcanic eruptions at the middle and high latitudes, other regions mainly appeared temperature decrease, northeast and northwest regions which were sensitive to climatic change was cooler. In addition, there was an obvious secondary cooling process during the summer year and in some regions during the winter year, the change of cooling even more obvious than the first cooling process. At the same time, the impact of large volcanic eruptions was different in five climate regions, regional temperature variation related to latitude after large volcanic eruptions at equatorial and high latitudes, but this variation related to longitude after volcanic eruptions at low and middle latitudes.

Analysis of the West African Heat Waves and their Associated Dynamics Factors using Regional Climate Models Outputs

F. Yoroba (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody - Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), K. Benjamin (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody - Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), A. Diawara (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), A. Diedhiou (Institute of Research for Development (IRD), Grenoble Cedex 9, France), Y. Kouadio (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody - Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

Abstract details
Analysis of the West African Heat Waves and their Associated Dynamics Factors using Regional Climate Models Outputs

F. Yoroba (1) ; K. Benjamin (1) ; A. Diawara (2) ; A. Diedhiou (3) ; Y. Kouadio (1)
(1) University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody - Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (3) Institute of Research for Development (IRD), LTHE - University Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble Cedex 9, France

Abstract content

Diagnostics combining Regional Climate Models Outputs and Station-based temperature Data from 1962 to 2013 indicate characteristics signals of heat waves over the West Africa. These heat waves can be associated with the occurrence of the record warm days during December, January and February (DJF) and the specific atmospheric circulation like Saharan heat low. Heat waves for various continental locations are shown to occur as isolated spatial and temporal events, and not as part of larger-scale systems over continental-size domains.  An examination of the physical processes associated with heat waves showed mutually consistent climatic relationships, such that heat waves were associated with reduced rainfall and consequently reduced soil moisture content, evaporation, and increased insolation at the surface. These combined changes created the surface temperature increase intrinsic to the heat waves. 

Atmospheric Systems and Thermical Comfort Index in Presidente Prudente (Brazil) in January-March 2014 period

M. C. Silva, (UFPR, Curitiba, Brazil), M. Noli Da Fonseca (UFPR, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil), P. R. D. Alves, (UFPR, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil)

Abstract details
Atmospheric Systems and Thermical Comfort Index in Presidente Prudente (Brazil) in January-March 2014 period

MC. Silva, (1) ; M. Noli Da Fonseca (2) ; PRD. Alves, (2)
(1) UFPR, Curitiba, Brazil; (2) UFPR, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil

Abstract content

Since humanity's beginnings man has a concern with the phenomena that originate in the atmosphere. The city of Presidente Prudente is located in the western portion of the state of São Paulo, with a population estimated at 218,960 inhabitants (IBGE, 2013). The city is situated at an average altitude of 472m above sea level and has a great diversity of land use, because the neighborhoods are densely built. With regard to the climate, the city is located in a tropical climate system, a climate transition area, thus hurting the performance of most air systems present in South America. Thus, this research is to identify the performance of weather systems and its relation to the thermal comfort in the city of Presidente Prudente in the quarter January, February and March 2014. For this purpose, we applied initially to Rhythmic Analysis methodology developed by Monteiro (1971) and index calculations Thermal Comfort. Given this, it was found that the feeling of "great discomfort" prevailed during the three-month study, and in the second half of January and the first half of February this feeling was linked to the phenomenon Lock Atmospheric, which caused an increase of up to 5 ° C in temperature and made cities registrassem record highs. Moreover, the action of "atmospheric blocking" and the daytime heating caused the sensation of "maximum discomfort" was set up, which is active mainly in the afternoon.

Global warming and cause-and-effect relations in solar cycles 20–23

B. Lilia (Institute of terrestrial magnetism, ionosphere and radiowave propagation of RAS, Moscow, Troitsk, Russia)

Abstract details
Global warming and cause-and-effect relations in solar cycles 20–23

B. Lilia (1)
(1) Institute of terrestrial magnetism, ionosphere and radiowave propagation of RAS, Solar terrestrial, Moscow, Troitsk, Russia

Abstract content

Since the early works by Bernard Vonnegut and Edward Ney that related cosmic radiation to the weather a lot of controversial results were discussed. Thereby we have studied solar activity and interplanetary space conditions, which can have an influence on galactic cosmic ray (CR) and on global temperature. In this connection the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters and cosmic ray variations have been compared with geomagnetic activity represented by the equatorial Dst index from the beginning 1965 to the end of 2012. The important drivers in interplanetary medium which have effect on cosmic rays as CMEs (coronal mass ejections) and CIRs (corotating interaction regions) undergo very strong changes during their propagation to the Earth. Because of this CMEs, coronal holes and the solar spot numbers (SSN) do not adequately reflect peculiarities concerned with the solar wind arrival to 1 AU. Therefore, the geomagnetic indices have some inestimable advantage as continuous series other the irregular solar wind measurements. We have compared the yearly average variations of Dst index and the solar wind parameters with cosmic ray data from Moscow, Climax, and Haleakala neutron monitors during the solar cycles 20–23. The descending phases of these solar cycles (CSs) had the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations. They also had effects on cosmic rays variations. We show that during the 11-year solar cycles 20–23, the IMF B, global temperature and Dst variations were correlated with the cosmic ray count rate. We demonstrate that the detrended annual means of global surface air temperature in 1965–2012 show the maxima during CRs and Dst index minima. It proves that CRs play essential role in climate change and main part of climate variations can be explained by mechanism of action CRs modulated by the solar activity on the state of lower atmosphere and meteorological parameters. Following this we have to seek for another ways of looking for global warming reason, first of all, as a man impact on climate.


 

Solar wind effects on climate change

B. Lilia (Institute of terrestrial magnetism, ionosphere and radiowave propagation of RAS, Moscow, Troitsk, Russia)

Abstract details
Solar wind effects on climate change

B. Lilia (1)
(1) Institute of terrestrial magnetism, ionosphere and radiowave propagation of RAS, Solar terrestrial, Moscow, Troitsk, Russia

Abstract content

Climate change in connection with evolution of Dst index and cosmic rays (CR) variations is analyzed. We considered Dst index evolution from the point of view of solar variability, cosmic rays and climate during SCs 20–23. It is shown that together with other solar and interplanetary parameters the long-term variations of the Dst-index can be used for studies of this kind of solar-terrestrial relationship. During the descending phases of these solar cycles the long-lasting solar wind high speed streams occurred frequently and were the primary contributors to the recurrent Dst variations and had effects on cosmic rays variations. We have studied conditions in interplanetary space, which can have an influence on galactic cosmic rays (CRs) and climate change. We show that long-term cosmic ray count rate variations in SCs 20–23 were modulated by solar activity and by the B of IMF which are correlated with Dst variations. On the long-term scale, the correlation CRs count rate in term of the B of IMF and Dst index is much higher than the correlation between solar spot numbers.


 

Dengue, Weather and Urbanization in Brazil

I. Dallmann (Université Paris Sud, Sceaux, France)

Abstract details
Dengue, Weather and Urbanization in Brazil

I. Dallmann (1)
(1) Université Paris Sud, Economics, Sceaux, France

Abstract content

Since two decades, the population affected by dengue disease is exponentially increasing and dengue is now affecting more than 100 million people in the world. It ranks behind malaria as the second most important vector-borne disease in the world and the first one in Latin America. Despite the important economic and social cost of the uncontrollable growth of the disease, little economic analysis has been devoted to it. In addition to weather, socio-economic factors such as urbanization and sanitary systems play an important role in the proliferationof dengue. In this paper, I measure the impact of weather and urbanization factors on dengue incidence in Brazilian states durin gthe 1992-2012 period, since Brazil is the most affected country in Latin America. I find a positive and statistically significant effect of different weather factors (temperature, vapour pressure, temperature anomalies) and urbanization factors (population density and urbanization rate). I find also statistically significant support for a negative impact of education and wealth on dengue proliferation.

Summer precipitation in Ukraine - observations, modeling and controlling factors

V. Tymofeyev (Ukrainian Hydrometeorological, Kiev, Ukraine), V. Martazinova (Ukrainian Hydrometeorological, Kiev, Ukraine)

Abstract details
Summer precipitation in Ukraine - observations, modeling and controlling factors

V. Tymofeyev (1) ; V. Martazinova (2)
(1) Ukrainian Hydrometeorological, Kiev, Ukraine; (2) Ukrainian Hydrometeorological, Climatre and long-range forecast, Kiev, Ukraine

Abstract content

Summer atmospheric precipitation in Ukraine is studied via climatology, atmospheric circulation and simulation in operative and climate models. Climatology of summer precipitation in Ukraine is studied with special attention to recent decades’ with growing number of extreme events contributed greatly to the present-day climate variability. Trends in total precipitation amounts and other indexes were obtained; showing difference between early and late season; trends in extreme parameters in threshold values are found statistically significant; they are used for regionalization of spatial changes.

Spatial inhomogeneity is found in precipitation indexes across Ukraine, greatest growth in the daily intensity of extreme precipitation occurred between 1990s and 2000s. Precipitation changes are analyzed against near-surface air temperatures (SAT) variability, showing great intraseasonal contrast, on the background of general seasonal warming. Early summer became much wetter in 2000s with numerous extreme events, and period from August till mid-Autumn is much drier causing greater frequency of droughts or heat waves in the last decades. In contrast, early period of global warming in 1970s-mid-1980s has been characterized by much drier climate in the early summer.

It is shown that it is convection intensification that resulted in significant growth in extreme precipitation and attendant events in 2000s and is contributed greatly to the present-day climate variability. In turn increased frequency of summer extreme events are attributed to larger-scale atmospheric circulation change that responsible for significant spatial in broader scale (also across Europe) and intraseasonal contrasts. Growth in extreme precipitation is detected in the latest decade due to deeper European trough with frequent cut-off lows, and its interaction with blocking high over the East Europe, and their greater time residence. The latter became strengthened in the late July-August, providing great weather contrast across Europe, causing rains and floods in the West and greater frequency of droughts in the East.

Ability of WRF ARW and NMM models to reproduce different scales’ convection is assessed. Types of mesoscale fields responsible for extreme rainfall events due to the strong convection development are recognized within the larger-scale synoptic systems, threat potential is assessed to increase during the last decade. Transition between atmospheric scales can be used to assessing general threat of extreme precipitation.

Many uncertainties in climate models outputs are detected, not reproducing well observed growth in extreme precipitation in the recent decade as well as spatial variability. One of the main challenges facing the recent climate change is intensification of convective potential and summer showers on the background of further warming; many uncertainties exist in future climate projections. Our own model of the atmospheric circulation change is developed, and scenarios are built, on the basis smaller rate of near-surface warming and variable precipitation. Recommendations for sustainable development for national economy, mainly for agriculture are given

Perceived Effects of Climate Change on Nomadic Practice of the Gujjar and Bakarwal Tribe in Kashmir Valley, India: A Socio-Demographic Analysis

J. Tufail (JAWAHARLAL NEHRU UNIVERSITY, DELHI, India)

Abstract details
Perceived Effects of Climate Change on Nomadic Practice of the Gujjar and Bakarwal Tribe in Kashmir Valley, India: A Socio-Demographic Analysis

J. Tufail (1)
(1) JAWAHARLAL NEHRU UNIVERSITY, CENTRE FOR THE STUDY OF REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, DELHI, India

Abstract content

Perceived Effects of Climate Change on Nomadic Practice of the Gujjar and Bakarwal Tribe in Kashmir Valley, India: A Socio-Demographic Analysis.

Tufail Jarul

 

Research Scholar

Centre for the Study of Regional Development,

School of Social Sciences,

Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi-India

 

Abstract

Despite the effects of climate change being evident at a global scale, its negative impact will severely affect those communities highly dependent on natural resources. Significant discussion has been focused on the possibility that climate change will displace large numbers of nomads from their nomadic way of life in the developing world, but few multivariate studies have addressed this issue. High Mountain areas in the arid environment are extremely sensitive indicators of sometimes only slight changes of precipitation and temperatures. Himalayas as the most vulnerable mountains for climate change has already been affected by climate change impacts. Climate change, however, is not the only consequence. Climate and environmental changes have deep impacts on the traditionally nomadic population, their economy and lifestyle. Thus it is justified to speak of both cultural and socio-economic vulnerabilities that characterise the present day development of India’s mountain regions. Regional focus of this study is the Jammu and Kashmir mountain area in the north of India and its forelands. Although however, temperature and rainfall trends suggest an increase exposure of the Jammu and Kashmir Nomads to the environmental stresses. Thus, their adaptation strategies show a clear trend towards different forms of agro-pastoralism as a reaction to the climatic change and changing political and socio-economic pressures. This holds true especially for the so far under-researched mountain regions of Kashmir in the Himalayas.

The study examined perceived effects of climate change on grazing land, livestock performance and examined the coping strategies of the nomadic to climate change. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 140 respondents for the study. Data were analysed using percentages, frequencies, tables and Chi square statistical tools. The result of the study showed that 37.5% of the respondents were between the ages of 51-60 years with an average age of 49.8 years. The results revealed that 67.5% of the pastoralists strongly agreed that the pattern of rainfall in recent time affects pasture availability. Consequently 47.5% and 52.5% of them reported a decrease in milk production and increase in livestock’s mortality rate respectively due to the effect of climate change. A significance relationship was established between factors of climate change and milk production of the herd (calculated x2 = 52.00, tabulated x2=7.8147. p≤0.05). It is therefore recommended that the pastoralists be trained in forage conservation techniques. They should also be encouraged to pool their resources to enjoy economics of scale by the extension workers. Grazing reserves should be developed by the government to fast track the disposition of the pastoralists to sedentary life. It was recommended that animal production/veterinary services should be stepped up, diversify their production to include crops and other sources of income generation and establish more gazing reserves.

Keywords: Kashmir, Climate change, Pastures, Nomads, Vulnerability, adaptation.

 

Local climate assessments in data scarce mountain areas; for example Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India

A. Linsbauer (University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland), N. Salzmann (University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland), M. Rohrer (Meteodat GmbH, Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Local climate assessments in data scarce mountain areas; for example Kullu district, Himachal Pradesh, India

A. Linsbauer (1) ; N. Salzmann (1) ; M. Rohrer (2)
(1) University of Fribourg, Department of Geosciences, Fribourg, Switzerland; (2) Meteodat GmbH, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract content

High-mountain regions like the Himalayas and their adjacent downstream areas are often highly affected by climatic changes, climate variability and/or related extremes. As a result of cascading effects of rising air temperatures, melting glaciers, thawing permafrost – as well as anthropogenic water usage or changes in forest and agro-biodiversity – vulnerability of people’s livelihood has broaden and increased. However, climate impacts assessments on physical and societal systems are often limited due to the scarcity of reliable long-term observations, particularly in remote high mountain regions, which additionally also hampers robustness of future projections. Since livelihoods in remote high-mountain regions are particularly vulnerable to climate related impacts, and have typically only low adaptive capacities, studies assessing climate variability pattern of the past and for the future are an important basis for sound impact assessments, and as such for preparing and planning adequate adaptation measures. Key for such studies and measures are climatic baselines.

Within the Indian Himalayas Climate Adaptation Programme (IHCAP) integrated vulnerability and hazard and risk assessments are on the way for the Kullu district in Himachal Pradesh, India, for the sake of supporting adaptation planning there. Related to these studies, the present work aims to provide an approach and according results for climatological baseline generation for regions without respective observations available or accessible. Here, we use observational gridded data sets (CRU, GPCP, TRMM, IMD, Berkeley) and Reanalyses (ERA-i, MERRA, NCEP/NCAR-R1, CR20) to provide spatially and temporally continuous data. For the grid boxes covering the area of interest, the time series for temperature and precipitation are analysed and possible trends and variations are assessed for the time window 1981-2010, as well as the entire time line of the respective gridded dataset. Preliminary analyses reveal that the 2m air temperatures have slightly increased over time, whereas the 500 hPa temperatures do not portray this trend clearly. Seasonal analysis for the same time window for the 500 hPa temperatures show a clear positive linear trend for winter (DJF), whereas there is no clear linear trend visible for spring (MAM), summer (JJA) and autumn (SON) temperatures. Precipitation amounts seem to have significantly decreased in MAM and JJA for the period 1981-2010.

As gridded datasets are prone to inhomogeneities, an ‘ensemble’ of observational and reanalysis datasets are analysed and possible uncertainties are discussed. In conclusion it is important to state that global observational datasets and reanalysis are not a surrogate for ground and upper air in-situ measurements and allow only a very coarse estimation of air temperature and precipitation trends. Nevertheless, it often remains the only option for local studies.

Effects of Drastic climatic variability in Pakistan

U. Mehmood (University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan), U. Aslam (university of the punjab, Lahore, Pakistan)

Abstract details
Effects of Drastic climatic variability in Pakistan

U. Mehmood (1) ; U. Aslam (2)
(1) University of Management and Technology, Department of political science, Lahore, Pakistan; (2) university of the punjab, Lahore, Pakistan

Abstract content

Weather and climate have very important socio-economic impacts. Climate of Pakistan have become unpredictable. This study describes the effects of intense flooding during 2010 and severe drought since December 2013 in Pakistan. Because of rapidly growing population and industrialization in Pakistan, the waste material is getting into the atmosphere and contaminating it and producing greenhouse gases. In late July 2010, heavy monsoon rains in Pakistan increased the water level in Indus River which caused heavy flooding in southern Pakistan. During the wet spel from 27 to 30 July Risalpur, Islamabad, Peshawar, Lahore, and Rawalpindi received rainfal of 415 mm, 394 mm, 333 mm, 288 mm, and 219 mm respectively. More than one fifth of Pakistan land was under water and 20 milion people were affected and there was a large-scale destruction of property, livelihood, and infrastructure. On the contrary, currently most of the areas of southern Pakistan (i.e. Tharparkar district) are facing a severe drought since December 2013. More than 120 malnourished children have died and about 175,000 families have been affected and some of them have been forced to leave their homes and move to barrage areas. There is a need to explore the causes of climatic variability and sophisticated methods of weather forecasting so that damages can be minimized to a greater extent.

Early warning of climate variability and change from seasonal forecasts

K. A. Peterson (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), C. Maclachlan (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), A. Arribas (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), A. Maidens (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), M. Gordon (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), A. Brookshaw (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), J. Camp (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), D. Fereday (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), A. Scaife (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Early warning of climate variability and change from seasonal forecasts

KA. Peterson (1) ; C. Maclachlan (1) ; A. Arribas (1) ; A. Maidens (1) ; M. Gordon (1) ; A. Brookshaw (1) ; J. Camp (1) ; D. Fereday (1) ; A. Scaife (1)
(1) Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Projections of future climate suggest that extreme events such as drought, floods, storms, cold spells, and heatwaves will all change their regional frequency of occurrence due to long term climate change.  However, on planning timescales of months to years in advance, the timing and occurrence of extreme or unprecedented events is determined by climate variability.  In particular, it depends on the superposition of climate variability and climate change.  In order to advise on the risk of imminent extremes we therefore need climate predictions which accurately take into account current climate variability.  This requires initialisation of the current state of the climate in the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface as well as the changes in radiatively active greenhouse gases and aerosols. 

 

Here we discuss near term climate predictions from the Met Office Hadley Centre out to seasonal lead times.  We show evidence of predictability of the leading modes of climate variability in both the tropics (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the extratropics (North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation).  We show how this can lead to predictability for regional climate extremes and discuss the prospects for improved warnings and adaptation to imminent extreme events.

 

First signs of climate change in Lyon (France) according to Köppen and Hess-Brezowsky classifications

F. Renard (University Jean Moulin Lyon 3 - UMR 5600 EVS, Lyon, France), W. Langlois De Septenville (University Jean Moulin Lyon 3 - UMR 5600 EVS, Lyon, France), B. Lédée (University Jean Moulin Lyon 3 - UMR 5600 EVS, Lyon, France)

Abstract details
First signs of climate change in Lyon (France) according to Köppen and Hess-Brezowsky classifications

F. Renard (1) ; W. Langlois De Septenville (1) ; B. Lédée (1)
(1) University Jean Moulin Lyon 3 - UMR 5600 EVS, Department of Geography, Lyon, France

Abstract content

The Greater Lyon (France) gathers human and environmental issues that can be affected by climate change by heat waves and intense precipitation. The objective of this study is to identify recent trends of climate change using the annual climate types from the Köppen-Geiger classification and the catalog situations of Hess-Brezowsky, to assess the dynamics and evolution of heat waves and heavy precipitation.

1. Annual climate types in Lyon since 1922

The Köppen-Geiger climate classification is the most used method to categorize the earth’s climates. The methodology used is the one detailed in Kottek et al. (2006) and Rubel and Kottek (2010). Rainfall and temperature data are from the weather station of Lyon-Bron (Météo-France). The annual climate types is calculated, for each year (1922 – 2013), and analyzed by decades. All years are placed in the category of warm temperate climate, with the exception of 1940, 1945, 1956 and 1963 which have a snow climate. Regarding temperatures, two types are identified in Lyon since 1922: warm and hot summer. There has, since 1965, a strong increase of the years with hot summer at the expense of warm summer. Indeed, absent for the decade 1965-1975, the hot summers represent 30%, 40%, 80% and 70% for the following decades. Thus, the hot summer type is the majority since the 1995-2005 decade. An additional study on heat waves shows also an increase of the latter.

Concerning rainfall, the proportion of dry winters is constant with about 20% of the years of this type by decades. Fully humid and dry summer years have high variability for the decades before 1995, where they are since observed in the same proportions (40% each). This first study on rainfall is complemented by studying the evolution of the weather types causing rainfalls, using the Hess-Brezowsky classification.

2. Rainfall atmospheric patterns evolution since 1881

Greater Lyon floods are caused by rainfalls with different characteristics. Their natures (intensity, water height, duration) are known since 1988 thanks to the Lyon 30 rain gauges network. In addition, rain is measured daily, since 1881, using Lyon-Bron station. The second part of this study relates the different types of rainfall to atmospheric circulation, and highlights trends related to climate change.

A comparison of many atmospheric circulation type catalogs has been made, and the method of Hess-Brezowsky (Gestengarbe and Werner 1999, 2005) was chosen to identify the types of rainy weather and its evolution. Since 1881, most of the rainfalls occur with southerly (22%) and westerly (31%) circulations. However, most of extreme rainfalls in terms of intensity, water height or duration are due to southerly regimes, with 57 %; 47 % and 34 % respectively. Concerning the evolution of synoptic circulations since 1881, it is noticed a sharp and steady decrease of north-west and north regime, as well as north-east and north regimes, whereas southerly regimes have strongly increased, going from 20% of rainy weather in 1881 to about 45% in 2013. Regarding intense precipitation and focusing on the sub-types of circulation (Großwetterlagen GWL), it is noticed that the GWL "zonal Ridge across Central Europe" is the most frequent, with a strong increase since 1881, according to the Mann-Kendall trend test. This is the same results for the "cyclonic south-westerly" and "trough over western europe" GWLs that have strongly increased since 1881. According to these results, it can be expected an increase in hot summer and an intensification of rainfall in the Greater Lyon.

Gerstengarbe F.-W., Werner P., 1999 : Katalog der GroßwetterlagenEuropas (1881– 1998), nach Paul Hess und HelmuthBrezowsky . Potsdam, Germany. 138 p.

Gestengarbe F.-W., Werner P.-C., 2005 : Katalog der GrosswetterlagenEuropas (1881–2004) Nach Paul Hess Und Helmut Brezowsky. 6. Verbesserte und ErganzteAuflage, PIK Report No. 100, Potsdam Institut Fur Klimafolgenforschung, 153 p.

Kottek, M., J. Grieser, C. Beck, B. Rudolf, and F. Rubel, 2006: World Map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification updated. Meteorol. Z., 15, 259-263

Rubel, F., and M. Kottek, 2010: Observed and projected climate shifts 1901-2100 depicted by world maps of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Meteorol. Z., 19, 135-141

Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961–2009)

J. Lukovic (University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia), B. Bajat (University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia), D. Blagojevic (University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia), M. Kilibarda (University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia)

Abstract details
Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia (1961–2009)

J. Lukovic (1) ; B. Bajat (2) ; D. Blagojevic (2) ; M. Kilibarda (2)
(1) University of Belgrade, Department of Geography, Belgrade, Serbia; (2) University of Belgrade, Deaprtment of civil engineering, Belgrade, Serbia

Abstract content

This study examines a spatial pattern of annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends in Serbia. The study used data from 63 weather stations between the period of 1961–2009. The rainfall series was examined by applying the nonparametric method of the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s method to determine the significance and magnitude of the trends. Significant trends have not been detected for the whole country at an annual scale. Seasonal trends at the confidence level of 97.5 %, however, indicate a slight decrease in winter (5 stations out of 63) and spring (7 stations out of 63) precipitation and an increase in autumn precipitation (10 stations out of 63). Results for monthly rainfall trends also generally showed a nonsignificant trend with the exception of a negative trend in May (6 stations out of 63) and positive trend for October (9 stations out of 63). Calculated global autocorrelation statistics (Moran’s I) indicate a random spatial pattern of rainfall trends on annual, seasonal and monthly timescales with exceptions for March, June and November. Overall, results suggest that only weak, mostly nonsignificant trends are present in Serbia in the period 1961–2009. To obtain spatial pattern of rainfall trends web mapping techniques are used applying recently developed package plotGoogleMaps.

Climate Variability and Waterborne Diseases: Case of Typhoid Fever and Enteric Viral Hepatitis in Meknes city, Morocco

O. Mouhaddach (Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco), A. El Yaacoubi (Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco), I. Boularab (Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco), M. Bend-Daoud (Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco), M.-P. Kestemont (Catholic University of Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium), S. El Jaafari (Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco)

Abstract details
Climate Variability and Waterborne Diseases: Case of Typhoid Fever and Enteric Viral Hepatitis in Meknes city, Morocco

O. Mouhaddach (1) ; A. El Yaacoubi (1) ; I. Boularab (1) ; M. Bend-Daoud (1) ; MP. Kestemont (2) ; S. El Jaafari (1)
(1) Moulay Ismail University, Faculty of science, Meknes, Morocco; (2) Catholic University of Louvain, Lsm, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

Abstract content

Background: In spite of all efforts deployed by health officers to control the waterborne diseases, Meknes stills the most severely affected province in Morocco. Various factors may explain this trend, including climatological and environmental ones.

Therefore, this study was carried in Meknes province and aims to understand the impact of climatological factors on typhoid fever and enteric viral hepatitis temporal variability, and to highlight the relation between climatological and environmental factors in this case, over the period 2004-2013.

Methods: Due to non-normal distribution of our input data, Spearman correlation was used. In order to point out the relevant periods of the year where the infection by Salmonella typhi and hepatitis viruses A & E, was strongly correlated to climate conditions, namely air temperature and rainfall, a new statistical approach was used, Partial Least Squares.

Results: The results reveal a temporal periodicity of typhoid and enteric viral hepatitis recorded cases, and the presence of significant positive correlation between the studied factors and the cases.

Partial Least Squares regression showed two relevant periods where the number of typhoid and viral hepatitis recorded cases increased, in coincidence with rise of air temperature and decrease of rainfall. The first period started from the end of March to the beginning of June, while the second one extended from the beginning of August to the end of October.

In fact, need of water for irrigation is more required during these two periods which are characterized by water scarcity. The wastewater reuse in irrigation is a common practice during the hot season, what may explain this typhoid and enteric viral hepatitis temporal variability.

Conclusion: This study identified some of climatological and environmental determinants of waterborne diseases in Meknes Province which currently exhibits the highest incidence in Morocco. This knowledge can be used to design intervention measures to reduce and control the said diseases in this area.

Synthesis of Common Era continental and marine climate records in the region of the North American Monsoon: Some observations of forcings

S. Metcalfe (University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, United Kingdom), J. Barron (United States Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States of America), S. Davies (Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Synthesis of Common Era continental and marine climate records in the region of the North American Monsoon: Some observations of forcings

S. Metcalfe (1) ; J. Barron (2) ; S. Davies (3)
(1) University of Nottingham, School of geography,, Nottingham NG7 2RD, United Kingdom; (2) United States Geological Survey, Volcano Science Center, MS 910, Menlo Park, CA, United States of America; (3) Aberystwyth University, Department of geography and earth sciences, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, United Kingdom

Abstract content

As part of our effort to compile a Holocene synthesis for the North American Monsoon (NAM), we compare the Common Era precipitation proxy records from 44 continental sites (lake sediment cores, speleothems, pack rat middens) and evaluate them for the possible effects of sea surface temperature forcing by comparison with four marine sediment records from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and four marine sediment records from the tropical and mid-latitude eastern North Pacific Ocean.   The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ~AD 900-1300) was characterized by a centennial-scale ‘megadrought’ across the southwestern United States, associated with cooler tropical Pacific SSTs and persistent La Niña-type conditions.  Proxy data from southern Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean reveal generally wetter conditions during the MCA, whereas records from the highlands of central Mexico and much of the Yucatan Peninsula are typified by long-term drought.  The Little Ice Age (LIA; ~AD 1400-1850) was characterized by cooler, wetter winter conditions in the northern NAM region that have been linked with increased frequency of El Niño events.  Proxy records in the central and southern NAM regions reveal generally dry LIA conditions, consistent with cooler SSTs in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

Correlation between Polar motion and climate variables during 1962-2013

M. Huang (Institute of Geographical Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Correlation between Polar motion and climate variables during 1962-2013

M. Huang (1)
(1) Institute of Geographical Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Abstract content

Polar motion is a significant Earth orientation parameter, but our understanding of its relation to climate forcing remains highly uncertain. In this study, the relationships between the polar motion excitation and climate variatbles are examined. High correlations are found between the excitation and annual mean climate variables, such as air temperature, atmospheric pressure, zonal wind at various atmospheric pressure levels, especially at 1000 hPa level. High correlation coefficients between the excitation and climate variables are found for the regions of the Arctic, Antarctic and Indian Ocean, with the center values exceeding 0.72. Two abrupt changes in polar motion excitation time series are detected and the accompanied changes of climate variables are also studied. Since the polar motion can be accurately measured by satellite,  the accurately determined polar motion can be used as an indicator for monitoring and understanding the global climate change. 

 

Heating and cooling rate calculations for realistic volcanic ash clouds and applications to climate simulations

A. Prata (Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia), S. Siems (Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia)

Abstract details
Heating and cooling rate calculations for realistic volcanic ash clouds and applications to climate simulations

A. Prata (1) ; S. Siems (1)
(1) Monash University, School of earth, atmosphere and environment, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Abstract content

The radiative effects of long-lived stratospheric volcanic sulphate aerosols have been widely studied, while the impacts of short-lived, but more strongly absorbing volcanic silicate particles have seen less attention.  Silicate ash injected into the stratosphere by the 1982 eruptions of El Chichón volcano were estimated to have induced a net radiative heating rate of up to 20 K per day.  This research involves the use of satellite measurements to determine important characteristics of dispersing volcanic ash clouds in order to develop new knowledge on the radiative effects of silicate ash on the atmosphere.  Ten explosive volcanic eruptions (VEI ≥ 4), occurring over the last decade (2006–present), have been considered in this study.  Hyperspectral infrared and satellite-based lidar remote sensing measurement techniques have been used to detect and quantify volcanic cloud heights, thicknesses, mass loadings and microphysical properties.  These measurements are well suited to provide this size and compositional information.  Finally, the new data has been used to provide some realistic estimates of the radiative impact of silicate ash on the atmosphere using a 1D radiative transfer model.  The significance of the results and possible applications to climate simulations are discussed.

Ability of a high regional climate model to represent key climatic features over West Equatorial Africa

W. Pokam (Department of Physics-Higher Teacher Training College-University of Yaounde 1, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon)

Abstract details
Ability of a high regional climate model to represent key climatic features over West Equatorial Africa

W. Pokam (1)
(1) Department of Physics-Higher Teacher Training College-University of Yaounde 1, Physics, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon

Abstract content

Climate dynamics over West Equatorial Africa (WEA) is dominated by four prominent features.  At lower level, two cells of westerlies (LLW) are discernible, controlled by different mechanisms. At middle level, African easterly jet prevails with a northern component (AEJ-N) discernible year round, and a southern cell discernible from September to February. The upper troposphere is dominated by the Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) which drivers over the region vary with season. Surface processes over WEA play a prominent role on the variability of the atmospheric dynamic over the region.

This underlines the complexity of atmospheric features over WEA, and the requirement of fine scale climate model for investigating locally driven atmospheric circulations. High resolution (25 Km) regional climate model HadRM3P was evaluated in its capacity to capture and model key dynamical features over WEA.

 

Results show the ability of HadAM3P to reproduce features related to the development of the two cells of LLW over WEA. HadAM3P do well in locating the core speed of the two cells of LLW and simulate well their annual variability. HadAM3P does a well job in simulating characteristics of AEJ-N and AEJ-S. The height of the core speed of the two components of AEJ is well simulated, together with their annual latitudinal migration. In upper troposphere, TEJ is well captured by HadRM3P.

 

However, some biases appear in the simulations. Investigation of the reasons behind these biases leads to highlight some mechanisms over the region. Exploration of the overestimation of the strength of LLW shows that HadRM3P overestimates surface temperature over the coastal region in WEA. This leads to overestimation of local vertical convergence of sensible heat flux from the surface, inducing a warm bias of diabatic heating. This promotes positive bias of vertical motion and in turn overestimation of LLW. This reveals the key role of surface condition over coastal region in WEA for the development of LLW.

 

Analysis show that during the main rainy season over WEA, from September to November, the prominent feature for the development of uplifts is diabatic heating release by condensation throughout the depth of the troposphere over WEA, rather than jet streak type circulation associated to the development of AEJ-S and AEJ-N.

Farmers' perceptions of climatic trend in Allada plateau in southern Benin

A. Cayossi Ulrich (université d'Abomey-Calavi, COTONOU, Benin), A. Abel (Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), G. Hervé, (CIRAD, Montpellier, France), E. K. Agbossou (UNIVERSITY OF ABOMEY-CALAVI, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), V. Pierre, (Université d'Abomey-Calavi, Cotonou, Benin), C. Baron (CIRAD, Montpellier, France)

Abstract details
Farmers' perceptions of climatic trend in Allada plateau in southern Benin

A. Cayossi Ulrich (1) ; A. Abel (2) ; G. Hervé, (3) ; EK. Agbossou (4) ; V. Pierre, (1) ; C. Baron (3)
(1) université d'Abomey-Calavi, COTONOU, Benin; (2) Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Graduate research program on climate change and water resources, Abomey-Calavi, Benin; (3) CIRAD, Montpellier, France; (4) UNIVERSITY OF ABOMEY-CALAVI, Faculty of agronomic sciences, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Abstract content

Although several studies show an increase in agricultural production in West Africa in connection with the improvement in rainfall, farmers perceive otherwise. This study highlights the differences between farmers' perceptions of changes in precipitation and their impacts on agricultural production and scientific observations in the Guinea region where two rainy seasons coexist. For this purpose, it compared precipitation data (from 1951 to 2010) and potential yields of corn (from 1970 to 2010), simulated by SARRA-H model, to farmers' perceptions of changes in precipitation collected from 201 farm managers spread over 67 villages in Southern Benin. The study clearly shows that farmers do not make any distinctions between the long rainy season and short rainy season in terms of changes in rainfall and agronomic impacts. On the contrary, climate analysis results, and agronomic simulations reveal that the long rainy season and short one are not affected in the same way by atmospheric forcing. Consequently, these two rainy seasons have opposite agronomic trends. Since 1970, the long rainy season has a rainfall deficit coupled with a poor temporal distribution of rainfall and a shortening in its duration which led to a sharp drop in potential crop yields. Conversely, since the late 1980s, the short rainy season rainfall recorded a surge which causes a sharp increase in agricultural yields. This pessimistic perceptions of farmers on the evolution of rainfall in both rainy seasons influences their choice of management of the farming calendar of the short rainy season, worsening food insecurity in the study area.

Climate change vulnerability of fishery-dependant coastal communities in Bangladesh

N. Islam (Sylhet Agricultural University, Sylhet, Bangladesh), M. M. Islam (Sylhet Agricultural University, Sylhet, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Climate change vulnerability of fishery-dependant coastal communities in Bangladesh

N. Islam (1) ; MM. Islam (1)
(1) Sylhet Agricultural University, Department of Coastal and Marine Fisheries, Sylhet, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Being situated in a deltaic geographic setting, Bangladesh is considered as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries on earth. The country frequently faces different climate change related events such cyclones, rising tidal floods, erosion and inundation, saline water intrusion which are further compounded by degraded natural resources base. In contrast to other climate vulnerable communities, very few research have conducted in Bangladesh on vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods to climate change impacts. Based on a fieldwork with four fishing communities in Patuakhali region of south-west coastal Bangladesh, the present study assessed vulnerability of fishery-based livelihoods to climatic change and variability. Bottom – up research approach was adopted in the study and participants’ information was collected through 70 individual interviews and 5 focus group discussions. The result revealed multi-faceted vulnerabilities across different scales that impinge on the livelihoods of already resources-poor fishers’ community in coastal Bangladesh. In line with global evidences, the level of vulnerabilities differs among the communities and across households within a community. Being dependent on climate sensitive fisheries resources, fishers’ vulnerability further depend on their level of exposure, and adaptive capacity. For instance, fishers’ level of exposure varied depending on areas of their fishing. Fishers with limited asset base usually do fishing in rivers and estuaries thus less exposed to extreme events, however when disaster stuck in their living places they are more vulnerable due to limited adaptive capacity. The case is reverse in case of better off fishers. They go for sea fishing thus more exposed to extreme events; however has better adaptive capacity due to strong financial capabilities. In both cases, fishers reported an increase of climate change-induced extreme events such as storm surge, strong wind, higher wave and stronger current during fishing operation that often cause loss in physical capitals and subsequent financial hardship. Loss of fishers’ lives is also common as a deadly consequence during fishing in sea. A number of internal and external factors regulate adaptive capacity of fishing communities in the study areas. Adaptive capacity of fishers often undermine by different internal factors such inappropriate fishing vessels, lack of modern fishing appliances, inadequate and poor infrastructure of cyclone shelter, complexities and non-availability of scheduled credit during crises period, exploiting relationship between fishers and fish entrepreneur (money lender) lack of alternatives livelihood opportunity etc. To illustrate, with absence of  state loan facility, fishers often have to take loan from moneylender at higher interest rate  that create  long term debt bondage with fish entrepreneur  that  weaken fishers’ adaptive capacity. A number of external factors such as lack of security during deep sea fishing, also make fishers’ lives more vulnerable by influencing their financial and social capabilities. For instance, increased risk of piracy in the bay causes financial loss of fishers in the form of ransom pay, bodily harm including death as well as loss of fishing gears and craft. In the above-mentioned, the present study submits that to make climate resilient fishing communities in Bangladesh, it is important to address no-climate related external factors, along with climate change related factors for a more holistic adaptation policy.

Stochastic Dynamical Cascade for Downscaling Precipitation signals over Complex topographies in the High Andes

A. Posadas (International Potato Center, Nairobi,, Kenya), E. Duffaut (Electrical and computer engineering, George Mason University, Virginia, United States of America), C. Jones (Earth Research Institute, Santa Barbara, California University, United States of America), L. Carvalho (Earth Research Institute, Santa Barbara, California University, United States of America), M. Carbajal (International Potato Center, Lima, Peru), H. Heidinger (Earth Research Institute, Santa Barbara, California University, United States of America), R. Quiroz (International Potato Center, Lima, Peru)

Abstract details
Stochastic Dynamical Cascade for Downscaling Precipitation signals over Complex topographies in the High Andes

A. Posadas (1) ; E. Duffaut (2) ; C. Jones (3) ; L. Carvalho (3) ; M. Carbajal (4) ; H. Heidinger (3) ; R. Quiroz (5)
(1) International Potato Center, Production System and Environment/ICRAF, Nairobi,, Kenya; (2) Electrical and computer engineering, Electrical and computer engineering department, George Mason University, Virginia, United States of America; (3) Earth Research Institute, Department of geography, Santa Barbara, California University, United States of America; (4) International Potato Center, Production system and environment, Lima, Peru; (5) International Potato Center, Crops systems intensification and climate change, Lima, Peru

Abstract content

Global Climate Models (GCMs) suggest that rising concentrations of greenhouse gases will have significant implications for climate at global and regional scales. Less certain is the extent to which meteorological processes at individual sites will be affected. Downscaling climate techniques are used to bridge the spatial and temporal resolution gaps between what climate models are currently able to provide and what decision-makers require. Among the most important impacts of regional-scale prediction of climate change is to assess how food production will affect the food security. Regional scale precipitation and temperature simulations are crucial to understand how global warming will affect fresh water storage and the ability to grow agricultural crops. Precipitation and temperature downscaling improve the coarse resolution and poor local representation of global climate models and help decision-makers to assess the likely hydrological impacts of climate change, and it would also help crop modelers to generate more realistic climatic-change scenarios. Thus, a spatial downscaling method was developed based on the multiplicative random cascade disaggregation theory, considering a β-lognormal model describing the rainfall precipitation distribution and using the Mandelbrot-Kahane-Peyriere (MKP) function. The Multifractal downscaling technique, complemented by a heterogeneity filter, was applied to a 15 years (01/11/1998 - 03/31/2013) daily rainfall time series produced by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF- 15 km grid spacing). A downscaled signal of approximately 1 km grid spacing was generated for a 220 km x 220 km region within the high plateau of the Andes. The model parameters were estimated from gauged daily rainfall data registered over 15 years from 18 weather stations. A detailed testing of the model was undertaken by comparing statistical characteristics of the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall between the rainfall fields obtained from the rain gauge network and those generated by the simulation model. The potential advantages of this methodology are discussed.

Climate Change Studies over Westernghat Region using Remote Sensing & GIS Modelling

N. Bhat (Shri Madhwa Vadiraja Institute of Technology and Management, Udupi, Karnataka, France), K. C. Gouda (CSIR CMMACS, BANGALORE KARNATAKA, India)

Abstract details
Climate Change Studies over Westernghat Region using Remote Sensing & GIS Modelling

N. Bhat (1) ; KC. Gouda (2)
(1) Shri Madhwa Vadiraja Institute of Technology and Management, computer sc & engg, Udupi, Karnataka, France; (2) CSIR CMMACS, CEMP, BANGALORE KARNATAKA, India

Abstract content

Western ghat region is one of the major mountain system in the Indian sdunbcontinent, extending in the western part of Indian from Kerala in South till Maharastra in north and the total area is about 160,000 Sq. km. The western ghat is of important from different point of view starting from the flora and fauna to medicin al plant to the rich region of river systems and the orography is most important for its role in the Rainfall during Monsoon and other seasons. In the study the remote sensing data from different soiurces like MODIS, TRMM, IRS and the multi-source observations from reanalysis products like NCEP, ERA-40, JMA and the high resolution observations like IMD are being used to study the climate change and quantified in terms of the different climate parameters mainly temperature, rainfall, humidity etc. The IRS and Landsat data  are being analtysed in the GIS Modelling frame work to see the signature in the Land Use and Land Cover Change detaection at high resolution over the mountain region. Finally the spatio-temporal analysis of the climate change are presented. Various algorithm and visualisation to understand the climate change over the mountain region are developed and presented in a very user friendly way which can be easily used by the users of different sectors for the better understanding of the climate change.

Evaluation of regional climate models in the context of AGRHYMET

M. Ly (AGRHYMET Regional Centre, Niamey, Niger, Republic of)

Abstract details
Evaluation of regional climate models in the context of AGRHYMET

M. Ly (1)
(1) AGRHYMET Regional Centre, Training and Research, Niamey, Niger, Republic of

Abstract content

The AGRHYMET regional Center is a specialized institution of the Permanent Interstates Committee Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) composed presently of thirteen member states. It has the objective to contribute to achieve food security for agroclimatological and hydrological applications with emphasis on rural and natural resource management. It contributes to achieve food security for increasing agricultural production in the CILSS member states by providing training and information to stakeholders and partners. For these missions some innovative projects have been initiated in the recent years to help countries to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) throughout their ability to analyse the climate change impacts. In this regard AGRHYMET has just initiated a climate modelling activities to examine the present and future climate for identifying the climate related risks in the main sectors and provide information for decision-makers. In the Sahel, food security is highly reliant on rainfed agriculture, and thus the intra-seasonal variability of rainfall including the onset dates, the cessation dates, the length of the rainy season remain an important factors to investigate. The aim of this work is to provide improved knowledge and evidence on current and probable future climate conditions, for use by decision makers in the region. It will also enhance the capabilities of the above mentioned characteristics of the rainy from regional climate simulations. Some approaches are then used in the region through the regional seasonal outlook forum (PRESAO) to determine a suitable planting date aiming to minimize the water stress in the growing period and then optimizing the staple crop yields in the Sahelian and the guinean cost countries The exercise is focusing to analyse the divergence of regional climate models in the CORDEX experiment on intra-seasonal variability of daily rainfall as well as the likely occurrence of long dry and/or wet spells during the critical growth of the dominant crop varieties sown by West African farmers.. The project outputs will contribute to significantly lower uncertainties by developing better and more tailored climate change knowledge to inform the user communities on climate related risks, as well as enhance their resilience to food insecurity and other climate related disasters. 

Simulations of Future Climatological Conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by Using RegCM4.3.5

L. Kurnaz (Bogazici, Istanbul, Turkey), M. T. Turp (Bogazici, Istanbul, Turkey), T. Ozturk, (Isik University, Istanbul, Turkey), M. Turkes (Bogazici, Istanbul, Turkey)

Abstract details
Simulations of Future Climatological Conditions in Central Asia CORDEX Region 8 by Using RegCM4.3.5

L. Kurnaz (1) ; MT. Turp (2) ; T. Ozturk, (3) ; M. Turkes (4)
(1) Bogazici, Center for climate change and policy studies and department of physics, Istanbul, Turkey; (2) Bogazici, Institute of environmental sciences, Istanbul, Turkey; (3) Isik University, Physics department, Istanbul, Turkey; (4) Bogazici, Center for climate change and policy studies, Istanbul, Turkey

Abstract content

In this work, projected future changes in mean surface air temperature and precipitation climatology, inter-annual and seasonal variability and climatic aridity/humidity conditions for the period 2010-2100 over the large Central Asia region with respect to present climate (from 1970 to 2000) were simulated based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 global climate model of the Met Office Hadley Centre and MPI-ESM-MR global climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology were downscaled to 50 km for the CORDEX Region 8. We investigated the seasonal time-scale performance of RegCM4.3.5 in reproducing observed climatology over the domain of Central Asia by using 2 different global climate model outputs. For the future climatology of the domain, the regional model predicts relatively high warming in the warm season and northern part of the domain at cold season with a decrease in precipitation almost all part of the domain. The results of our study show that surface temperatures in the region will increase from 1 ◦C up to more than 7 ◦C on average according to the emission scenarios during the period 2010-2100 with respect to past period 1970-2000. Therefore, the projected warming and decrease in precipitation and also resultant or associated increased aridity and more frequent and severe drought events very likely adversely affect the ecological and socio-economic systems of this region, which is already characterised with mostly arid and semi-arid climate and ecosystems.

Climate variability and susceptibility to desertification in Maranhão State, Brazil

C. M. D. A. Eloi (Maranhao State University, São Luis, MA, Brazil), S. Oliveira Sa (Maranhao State University, São Luis, MA, Brazil), J. R. Lopes (Maranhao State University, São Luis, MA, Brazil), E. P. Araújo (Maranhao State University, São Luis, MA, Brazil), G. A. Reschke (Maranhao State University, São Luis, MA, Brazil), C. W. S. Dias (Maranhao State University, São Luis, MA, Brazil), J. A. Nogueira (Maranhao State University, São Luis, MA, Brazil), C. Gehring (Maranhao State University, São Luis, MA, Brazil)

Abstract details
Climate variability and susceptibility to desertification in Maranhão State, Brazil

CMDA. Eloi (1) ; S. Oliveira Sa (1) ; JR. Lopes (1) ; EP. Araújo (1) ; GA. Reschke (1) ; CWS. Dias (1) ; JA. Nogueira (1) ; C. Gehring (2)
(1) Maranhao State University, Geoenvironmental center, São Luis, MA, Brazil; (2) Maranhao State University, Post-graduate program in agroecology, São Luis, MA, Brazil

Abstract content

Desertification is a serious global problem. Its impact is greater in developing countries, because it can increase hunger, malnutrition and rural exodus. This paper investigates the susceptibility to desertification in the State of Maranhão, the transition zone between Amazonia, inland Cerrado and the semi-arid Northeast Provinces of Brazil. For this purpose, we spatially interpolate data from 84 climatological stations in operation >20 years throughout the state, provided by the National Hydro-meteorological Network developed by National Water Agency. There is a marked contrast between humid and dry areas reflect the transition-zone between Amazonia and the semi-arid Northeast. Rainfall distribution is very unequal, followed by rapid water-loss via evapotranspiration after the end of the rainy season. Total rainfall varies from about 700.0 to 2784.0 mm/year, with highest rainfall in March (531.3 mm) and April (523.5 mm), whereas August is the driest month (17.1 mm), monthly and annual potential evapotranspiration varies from 20.6 - 302.2 mm/month and 276.0 - 2300.0 mm/year respectively, and annual water deficiency varies from 53.0 to 1421.0 mm/year. In the months of August and September we registered water deficiencies throughout the entire State. The highest rates of annual and monthly water surpluses are 1678.9 mm/year and 424.6 mm/month, respectively. 20.1% (66.854 km2) of the total area of the State of Maranhão, is susceptible to desertification, affecting an estimated 361 thousand inhabitants. Coincidentally, the counties with desertification risk are among the least developed and poorest of Maranhão State and of Brazil. Exposure is especially high in the indigenous population (55.2% of the State´s total indigenous population). Until recently, Maranhão was not included in Brazil´s map of desertification, and public awareness of desertification risks continues almost absent. Our results demand an increased public awareness, and call for the development and implementation of policy and management strategies designed to combat against and adapt to desertification risks, in order to avoid increased rural poverty, food insecurity and further rural exodus.

 

Key words: climate, evapotranspiration, aridity-index.

Calibration and Validation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Bangladesh Using PRECIS Model

M.N. Ahasan (SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Calibration and Validation of Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Bangladesh Using PRECIS Model

MN. Ahasan (1)
(1) SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Synoptic Division, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Abstract

A regional climate model named PRECIS is employed in generating rainfall scenarios for SAARC region. PRECIS generated rainfall scenario is calibrated with ground-based observed rainfall during 1961-1990 in Bangladesh. Through calibration regression coefficients such as slope and constant are obtained at 27 observational sites over Bangladesh. The regression coefficients are utilized in validation of PRECIS generated rainfall during 2000 to 2006. Better performance of PRECIS through validation encourages employing it in rainfall forecasting for Bangladesh. In this work rainfall forecast for Bangladesh is performed experimentally for 2009. The monsoon rainfall is projected surplus 0.29 mm/day or 2.03% in 2009 and it will be surplus 0.44 mm/day or 14.02% in post-monsoon. It will deficit 0.11 mm/day (2.08%) and 0.01 mm/day (1.44%) in pre-monsoon and dry season respectively. Through the analysis of monsoon rainfall in Bangladesh this work discloses that PRECIS simulated rainfall is not directly useful in application purposes. Without calibration with ground-truth data model outputs are very risky in providing long-term rainfall prediction. However, after performing calibration excellent result is obtained in estimating rainfall in Bangladesh with R2 is 0.94 and correlation is 0.97. The encouraging results of this work can be taken as the starting point of SMRC to do more realistic research on long-term rainfall forecasting. The monsoon rainfall forecasting approach using down scaling of regional climate model outputs is very new in Bangladesh and also in SMRC. This persuades result suggests extending the work for other SAARC countries in a consecutive research project. Model run with other ensembles and with high horizontal resolution are also under consideration with the improvement of computational facilities in the Centre. After completion of the calibration and validation of PRECIS for SAARC region, the projected rainfall is supposed to be posted through SMRC website (www.saarc-smrc.org) which is now available only for Bangladesh. Completion of such type of job is really necessary for SAARC region where SMRC can play important role as a regional meteorological research centre.

Key words:  PRECIS, TRMM, RCM, Rainfall, Monsoon

Impact of climatic events on deep-sea ecosystems: the response of cold-water corals to dense water shelf cascades

F. Lartaud (UPMC, Banyuls-sur-mer, France), E. Peru, (CNRS, Banyuls-sur-mer, France), N. Le Bris (UPMC, Banyuls-sur-mer, France)

Abstract details
Impact of climatic events on deep-sea ecosystems: the response of cold-water corals to dense water shelf cascades

F. Lartaud (1) ; E. Peru, (2) ; N. Le Bris (1)
(1) UPMC, Cnrs umr8222, Banyuls-sur-mer, France; (2) CNRS, Cnrs umr8222, Banyuls-sur-mer, France

Abstract content

The cold-water scleractinian corals (CWC) are the main ecosystem engineers in the deep-sea, and thus play a key role in deep-ecosystems. They form reef structures that provide niches and nursery grounds for a variety of species, including commercial an patrimonial species, making these reefs significant centers of biodiversity in deep water shelf settings. In submarine canyons, these habitats depend on the exportation of organic matter from the shelf to the deep-sea, and thus are closely related to climatic conditions. Particularly in the Mediterranean Sea, in the Gulf of Lion canyons, which is characterized by seasonal meteorologically-driven hydrological events, resulting from severe coastal storms or from the formation and sinking of dense water masses (i.e., cascading). The dense water formation occurs as a result of wind-induced cooling and evaporation of surface waters during winters. This annual pulsed phenomenon last several weeks, with strong inter-annual variation in intensity. The effects of the dense water shelf cascades on cold-water coral reefs are however poorly known. High densities of organic particles associated to the cascading events should constitute an energy supply but the strong currents result in major disturbance in the ecosystem functioning, with breaking of coral fragments.

Therefore, studying the response of cold-water corals to these cascading events is essential (1) to better assess the resilience of present reefs to the environmental dynamics, particularly in Mediterranean where the range and frequency of cascading events will change with in the next future with the global warming, and (2) to determine the growth dynamic of fossil reefs, probably linked to past climate conditions.

The development of mark and recapture techniques, coupled with sclerochronological analysis, allows growth rate estimations at the polyp scale based on the identification of staining as a time marker in the skeleton (Lartaud et al., 2013), whereas the use of support cuttings of coral fragments give growth rate information at the colony scale (Lartaud et al., 2014). In situ growth experiments were conducted in the Lacaze-Duthiers canyon (between 340 and 520 m depth) on two reef-building cold-water coral species (Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata). The results show temporal changes in the growth dynamics, with a seasonal response of M. oculata, whereas L. pertusa appear less sensitive, and inter-annual variability presumably relied to the cascading intensity. Nevertheless, the two species living in the same habitat exhibit distinct growth response both at temporal and spatial scales,  which should be take into account for further management strategies in the conservation of these species.

 

Bibliographic references:

Lartaud, F., Pareige, S., de Rafelis, M., Feuillassier, L., Bideau, M., Peru, E., Romans, P., Alcala, F., Le Bris, N., 2013. A new approach for assessing cold-water coral growth in situ using fluorescent calcein staining. Aquatic Living Resources 26, 187-196.

Lartaud, F., Pareige, S., de Rafelis, M., Feuillassier, L., Bideau, M., Peru, E., De La Vega, E., Nedoncelle, K., Romans, P., Le Bris, N., 2014. Temporal changes in the growth of two Mediterranean cold-water coral species, in situ and in aquaria. Deep Sea Research II 99, 64-70.

Studies on Climatic parameter influencing milk production in Cattle in South West Nigeria

M. Sholademi (Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), A. Sholademi (Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Studies on Climatic parameter influencing milk production in Cattle in South West Nigeria

M. Sholademi (1) ; A. Sholademi (1)
(1) Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Applied Meteorological Services, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

This study further advance the knowledge of climatic indices applicable to the mitigation strategies aimed at reducing the vulnerability of cattle milk production in south west Nigeria. It shows that milk production in the tropics is affected by environmental factors of which climate appears to be most critical. We adopted Cocheme and Franqiun (1967)’s model of 0.1PE

between climatic parameters and milk yield. The result shows that sunshine duration and evaporation are the dominant climatic parameters affecting milk production irrespective of breed and location. Furthermore, milk production in the study area was highest during the dry season with mean value as (approximately 331  litres/cow/day). However, no significant interactive effect of cattle, breed, location and season on the lactation yield of cattle is observed in the study.

Characteristics of Hydro-Climatic variables In Nigeria during episodes Of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea

M. Sholademi (Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Characteristics of Hydro-Climatic variables In Nigeria during episodes Of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Gulf of Guinea

M. Sholademi (1)
(1) Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Applied Meteorological Services, Lagos, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

This study examined the characteristics of hydro-climatic variables in Nigeria at various Agro-ecological zones (Forest, Southern-Guinea-Savanna, Northern-Guinea-Savanna and Sudan-Savanna) during different episodes of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the Gulf of Guinea (GOG) region. The study utilizes SSTA and continental climatic data spanning 40 years; and with the aid of advance statistical analysis to determine onset of rain, cessation of rain, duration of rain and frequency of occurrence of rain day using rainfall-potential-evapo-transpiration model. Results showed that SST is critical to climate monitoring at the local, regional and hemispheric scales. The result further display how to enhance optimal   schedule of farm operations, proper adaptation and mitigation practices against extreme weather events arising from observed warming trends in both the SST and the near air surface temperature. Further recommendation is made for SSTA as a forecasting tool in the prediction of hydro-climatic variables that is essential for optimal agricultural practices.

Habitats characterization of the New Caledonia deep sea ecosystems

J. Delavenne (museum national d'histoire naturelle, PARIS, France), P. Lozouet (museum national d'histoire naturelle, Paris, France), L. Poncet (museum national d'histoire naturelle, Paris, France), S. Samadi (museum national d'histoire naturelle, PARIS, France)

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Habitats characterization of the New Caledonia deep sea ecosystems

J. Delavenne (1) ; P. Lozouet (2) ; L. Poncet (3) ; S. Samadi (1)
(1) museum national d'histoire naturelle, UMR ISYEB, PARIS, France; (2) museum national d'histoire naturelle, Service des collections, Paris, France; (3) museum national d'histoire naturelle, Service du patrimoine naturel, Paris, France

Abstract content

The impact of climate change on marine ecosystems at different levels is demonstrated by many studies focusing on various regions of the globe. New Caledonia and other south west Pacific islands are very vulnerable to these threats with sea level rise or ocean acidification which impacts coral reefs. New Caledonia Exclusive Economic Zone is 1.3 million km² and most of it belongs to the deep sea with ridges and seamounts which represent unique ecosystems not easily accessible. It has been shown that deep sea ecosystems can also be impacted by climate change and to evaluate these potential effects the considered ecosystems must be precisely described and characterized.

The exploration program “Tropical Deep Sea Benthos” launches sea surveys in the south west pacific for more than 30 years and 37 surveys (3800 stations) sampled the New Caledonian waters. This program gathers a worldwide taxonomist network and led to numerous new species descriptions.  Here, we used this large taxonomic database to develop a multi taxa approach to describe species associations on the New Caledonia seamounts in relation to stable physical environment like depth or slope. Some of the studied species have really narrow distributions or are only know from one location; hence they can strongly depend on very local environmental conditions. The change in sea level or sea surface temperature and their consequences on the deep sea habitats could have a strong influence on these organisms.

This study represents a first attempt at the habitats characterization and species associations’ description of the deep sea ecosystems of New Caledonia and will be used to implement conservation and management plans of the area.

The climate-sensitive deep-sea ecosystem of the Lacaze-Duthiers submarine canyon: first steps of a long-term study of ecosystem dynamics and functions

N. Le Bris (Sorbonne-Universités UPMC CNRS LECOB-UMR8222, Banyuls-sur-mer, France), P. Galand (CNRS UPMC UMR8222 LECOB, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France), F. Lartaud (Sorbonne-Universités UPMC CNRS LECOB-UMR8222, Banyuls-sur-mer, France), J. Orignac (Sorbonne-Universités UPMC CNRS LECOB-UMR8222, Banyuls-sur-mer, France), E. Peru, (CNRS UPMC UMR8222 LECOB, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France), A. Pruski (Sorbonne-Universités UPMC CNRS LECOB-UMR8222, Banyuls-sur-mer, France), B. Rivière (CNRS UPMC UMR8222 LECOB, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France), G. Vetion (CNRS UPMC UMR8222 LECOB, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France)

Abstract details
The climate-sensitive deep-sea ecosystem of the Lacaze-Duthiers submarine canyon: first steps of a long-term study of ecosystem dynamics and functions

N. Le Bris (1) ; P. Galand (2) ; F. Lartaud (1) ; J. Orignac (1) ; E. Peru, (2) ; A. Pruski (1) ; B. Rivière (2) ; G. Vetion (2)
(1) Sorbonne-Universités UPMC CNRS LECOB-UMR8222, Observatoire océanologique, Banyuls-sur-mer, France; (2) CNRS UPMC UMR8222 LECOB, Observatoire océanologique de banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France

Abstract content

Submarine canyons are recognized as ecological hotspots on continental margins providing a number of services to ecosystems and humans. In the Mediterranean sea, these canyons are particularly threaten by cumulated anthropogenic impacts and climate change effects (including changes in deep water convection and extreme meteorological events). Several of these canyons host abundant populations of deep-sea corals and may display even higher vulnerability to climate change, as these ecosystem engineers are particularly sensible to warming and acidification of deep waters.

Despite recent efforts in seabed mapping and dedicated physical oceanography monitoring, constrained access to these marine habitats largely limited the capacity to acquire basic knowledge on ecosystem dynamics. The complex links between environmental fluctuations and ecosystem functions therefore remains largely unknown. There is a critical need to fill these gaps  in order to understand how climate forcing may challenge ecosystem stability and functions.

In this perspective, we established a multiannual integrated ecological study in the Lacaze-Duthiers submarine canyon (western Mediterranean Sea), which aimed to investigate key ecological functions in naturally variable conditions. The integrated experimental approach combined in situ growth studies of dominant cold-water coral species with the multidisciplinary study of sediment biogeochemistry in relation to microbial and meiofaunal communities.

The strong temporal variability of ecosystem components and functional rates revealed by these pioneer works further documents the strong influence of atmospheric fluctuations on these deep-sea environments, while providing first insights to the mechanisms underlying these interactions. These results set the basis for  a long-term ecological study of this climate-sensitive deep-sea ecosystem and supports the implementation of effective monitoring strategies of the Lacaze-Duthiers canyon in the frame of the Marine Protected Area of the Gulf of Lion (Parc Naturel Marin du Golfe du Lion).

 

Evaluation of model simulation of the Southeast Asia climate under the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/CORDEX Southeast Asia project

G. Narisma (Ateneo de Manila University, Quezon City, Philippines), F. Cruz (Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines), J. Dado (Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, Japan), F. Tangang (National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia), L. Juneng (National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia), J. X. Chung (National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia), S. T. Ngai (National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia), T. W. Teh (National University of Malaysia, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia), T. Phan Van (VNU Hanoi University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam), T. Ngo-Duc (VNU Hanoi University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam), L. Trinh-Tuan (VNU Hanoi University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam), T. Nguyen-Xuan (VNU Hanoi University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam), J. Santisirisomboon (Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok, Thailand), P. Singhruck (Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand), D. Gunawan (Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, Jakarta, Indonesia), E. Aldrian (Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, Jakarta, Indonesia)

Abstract details
Evaluation of model simulation of the Southeast Asia climate under the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling (SEACLID)/CORDEX Southeast Asia project

G. Narisma (1) ; F. Cruz (2) ; J. Dado (3) ; F. Tangang (4) ; L. Juneng (4) ; JX. Chung (4) ; ST. Ngai (4) ; TW. Teh (4) ; T. Phan Van (5) ; T. Ngo-Duc (5) ; L. Trinh-Tuan (5) ; T. Nguyen-Xuan (5) ; J. Santisirisomboon (6) ; P. Singhruck (7) ; D. Gunawan (8) ; E. Aldrian (8)
(1) Ateneo de Manila University, Physics Department, Quezon City, Philippines; (2) Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines; (3) Tokyo Metropolitan University, Department of geography, Hachioji, Japan; (4) National University of Malaysia, School of environmental and natural resource sciences, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia; (5) VNU Hanoi University of Science, Hanoi, Vietnam; (6) Ramkhamhaeng University, Bangkok, Thailand; (7) Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand; (8) Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics, Jakarta, Indonesia

Abstract content

In the face of future climate change impacts, high-resolution climate projections are essential in developing appropriate adaptation measures.  The Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/CORDEX Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA) project aims to generate these projections through a collaborative effort in regional climate downscaling.  However, before downscaling global climate projections, a regional climate model is first evaluated to determine its performance in simulating the climate over the SEA region. In this study, simulations using the 4th version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model system (RegCM4) have been conducted over the SEA domain (80°E-145°E; 15°S-40°N) at 36 km spatial resolution for the period of 1989-2008 using the ECMWF ERA Interim data as boundary condition.  Comparisons of model temperature and rainfall with observed data show areas where the regional model tends to enhance (or reduce) biases from the boundary forcing.  For example, there is a consistent cold bias over the Tibetan plateau and Indochina, especially during the boreal winter.  However, the seasonal cycles are generally well-represented in the model.  The correlation between model and observed data also tends to be high over the mainland Asia continent but low over the Maritime continent, which may either be due to the model or to uncertainties in the observation data used.  Results also indicate relatively higher similarities for both seasonal and inter-annual variabilities in the temperature and rainfall extremes among the different model experiments performed over mainland Asia compared to the Maritime continent. These results emphasize the need to evaluate and appropriately configure the regional climate model, particularly for the SEA region.

Spatio-temporal characteristics of the recent rainfall recovery in West Africa

S. Sanogo (Université des Sciences des Techniques et des Technologies de Bamako (USTT-B), Bamako, Mali), A. Ba (Université des Sciences des Techniques et des Technologies de Bamako (USTT-B), Bamako, Mali), A. H. Fink (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany), J. A. Omotosho (Federal University of Technology, Akure, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of), R. Redl (University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany), V. Ermert (University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany)

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Spatio-temporal characteristics of the recent rainfall recovery in West Africa

S. Sanogo (1) ; A. Ba (1) ; AH. Fink (2) ; JA. Omotosho (3) ; R. Redl (4) ; V. Ermert (4)
(1) Université des Sciences des Techniques et des Technologies de Bamako (USTT-B), Faculty of science and technique (fst, der-physics), Bamako, Mali; (2) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of meteorology and climate research, Karlsruhe, Germany; (3) Federal University of Technology, Akure, Wascal graduate research programme in west african climate system, Akure, Nigeria, Federal Republic of; (4) University of Cologne, Institute of geophysics and meteorology, Cologne, Germany

Abstract content

Using daily (monthly) rainfall data from 167 (254) stations across West Africa with at least 80% data availabilityfor the 31-year period 1980–2010 and the gridded African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) for the period 1983–2010,linear trends in yearly and monthly rainfall totals were investigated. Measures of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detectionand Indices (ETCCDI) and two rainy season onset and retreat definitions were employed to assess the corresponding trendsin frequency and intensity of daily rainfall and changes to monsoon season length. A rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functionanalysis yielded two homogeneous rainfall regions, the Sahel and Guinea Coast, in terms of interannual to decadal rainfallvariability, and this led to analysis of station data and Standardised Precipitation Index for the two regions. Results showthat the majority of stations in the Sahel between the West Coast and 15∘ E shows a statistically significant positive rainfalltrend for annual totals. The August–October period exhibits the largest rainfall recovery in the Sahel and the date of theretreat of the rainy season significantly moved later into the year by 2 days per decade. The recovery is reflected both in morerainy days associated with longer wet spell duration and more extreme rainfall events. Trends along the Guinea Coast are weak and non-significant except for extreme rainfall related indices. This missing significance is partly related to the hiatusin rainfall increase in the 1990s, but also to the larger interannual rainfall variability. However, the tendency towards a moreintense second rainy season suggests a later withdrawal of rains from the West African subcontinent. ARC2 trends are broadlyconsistent where ground calibration was undertaken, but are dubious for Nigeria and Ghana, and especially for the Guinea, Jos and Cameroon Line highlands due to missing gauge data.

 

Assessment of Southwest Asia Surface Temperature Changes: CMIP5 20th and 21st Century Simulations

Z. Babar (Nanjing University of information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China), X.-F. Zhi (Nanjing University of information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China), G. Fei (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China)

Abstract details
Assessment of Southwest Asia Surface Temperature Changes: CMIP5 20th and 21st Century Simulations

Z. Babar (1) ; XF. Zhi (2) ; G. Fei (2)
(1) Nanjing University of information Science and Technology, College of international students, Nanjing, China; (2) Nanjing University of information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Abstract content

Surface temperature variability in southwest Asia from CMIP5 20th century simulations and projected changes under three emission scenarios for the 21st century are assessed on the basis of a multimodel ensemble mean of seventeen CMIP5 runs and two observational datasets. Performance of individual model is also computed. Compared with observations CMIP5 models show seasonality in biases over southwest Asia. Cold biases over Himalayan range are significant in winter than in summer. Climatic warming during the 20th century is very well captured by the CMIP5 models. There is a limited agreement among the observations and CMIP5 models ensemble mean regarding the temperature trends and their spatial distribution over southwest Asia. Surface temperature variability over southwest Asia is best represented by three individual models i.e. BCC, HadGEM and NorESM. Temperature projections for the 21st century demonstrate that annual temperature rise for RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios is 0.55 C (10 year)-1 and 0.27C (10 year)-1 . RCP 2.6 scenario has the lowest warming rate at 0.11 C (10 year)-1. By the end of the 21st century annual mean temperature in southwest Asia is estimated to increase by 0.80 C to 4.85 C. Most of this warming is projected to take place around Pakistan and its surrounding areas. 

Between the mazes of Climate Scenarios

B. Van Den Hurk (KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands)

Abstract details
Between the mazes of Climate Scenarios

B. Van Den Hurk (1)
(1) KNMI, Model Development, De Bilt, Netherlands

Abstract content

Climate scenarios, such as those prepared for the Dutch Climate Adaptation program, are useful instruments to cast a large collection of possible future evolutions in a generic reference framework. But these scenarios necessarily only describe the bigger picture, and miss the elementary details that govern every-day decision making. Challenging events are governed by a mixture of weather phenomena, infrastructure design, preparedness “on the ground” and compounding features. Here we illustrate a number of approaches relying both on past events and (synthetic) future weather cases that can provide the necessary additional “real life” material that is needed to support informed decision making.

Influences of climatic variability on coastal oceanography of benin

Z. Sohou (Benin Fisheries and Oceanographic Research Institute (IRHOB), Godomey, Benin), T. C. Guidi (Institute of Technology Lokossa, University of Abomey-Calavi (Benin), Lokossa, Benin), C. L. Hinvi (Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), R. Djiman (Fisheries and Oceanological Research Institute of Benin (IRHOB), Cotonou, Benin), D. E. Fiogbe (Science and Technic Faculty of Abomey-Calavi University, Abomey-Calavi, Benin)

Abstract details
Influences of climatic variability on coastal oceanography of benin

Z. Sohou (1) ; TC. Guidi (2) ; CL. Hinvi (3) ; R. Djiman (4) ; DE. Fiogbe (5)
(1) Benin Fisheries and Oceanographic Research Institute (IRHOB), Biological Oceanography, Godomey, Benin; (2) Institute of Technology Lokossa, University of Abomey-Calavi (Benin), Industrial engineering and maintenance chair of mechanical and energy, Lokossa, Benin; (3) Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences,, Abomey-Calavi, Benin; (4) Fisheries and Oceanological Research Institute of Benin (IRHOB), Physical oceanography, Cotonou, Benin; (5) Science and Technic Faculty of Abomey-Calavi University, Zoology departement, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Abstract content

In article are analyzed temporary ranks for average monthly air temperature at Cotonou station Kazhekhun(06 ° Nord, 002 ° 23 East) during 10 years (from 1975 to 1984) with every fifteen days discretization ofcounting in. For same the period are used average monthly temperatures of the ocean surfaces near the capital ofthe Republic of Benin, Cotonou. Authors calculated correlation coefficients for humidity of air; air temperature;sea surface water temperature. Research of interrelations between sea surface water temperature variations andsalinity changes on depth, allow to identify a mesolimnion zone; gives the chance to understand distinctionswithin a year, concerning lifting of deep waters (upwelling). Also authors carried out calculations of correlationcoefficients between monthly bioproduction of a pelagic species of fish (Sardinellamaderensis), as «the upwellingindicator», with air temperature. In addition in article are represented fields of sea water temperatures andthe salinity, received with use of SURFER program.

Crops response to climate variability and societal implications on rural dwellers of Nigeria

S. Ayanlade (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria, Ile-Ife, Osun, France)

Abstract details
Crops response to climate variability and societal implications on rural dwellers of Nigeria

S. Ayanlade (1)
(1) Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria, Dept. of Geography,, Ile-Ife, Osun, France

Abstract content

This study examines impacts of climate variability on the yield of eight major crops in the guinea ecological of Nigeria, using both quantitative and qualitative methods. The Guinea ecological zone represents a rich agricultural area for Nigeria, sometime call “the food basket zone of the country”. Several studies have been show that variability of rainfall has significant implication not only on the differences in the types of crops cultivated but also the rate of yield of such crops. Majority of these studies were based on assessment of two to four crops. Thus, the present study apply GIS techniques to examine the climate variability and its implications on the eight crops (Cassava, yam, Maize, sorghum, Groundnut, Cowpea, Cocoyam and Melon), majorly cultivated in the area.  Rainfall, temperature and the crops yield dataset from 1982 to 2012 were used in the analysis. A year is divided into two growing seasons. These seasons are: early growing season (April-June) and late growing season (July- October) with regard to seasonal differences and the crops yields. The results show that during the past decades the yields of these crops were associated with climate variability, which vary differently in the year with high rainfall than the year with low rainfall. The study found out that  the crops yield have been dominated by reduction in the number of rain days during the middle of the rainy season and there is evidence of a significant change in the crop yield as climate varied. The study concluded by recommending the need to encourage rain fed agriculture and   agricultural research to improve crop yields.

The timing of summer climate departure in cities and its lethal impact

C. Mora (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), B. Dousset (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), C. Trauernicht (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), I. Caldwell (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), Q. Chen (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), C. Dau (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), B. Dietrich (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), R. Fang (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), R. Geronimo (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), E. Johnston (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), L. Li (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), M. Lucas (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), M. Mckenzie (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America), F. Powell (University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, United States of America)

Abstract details
The timing of summer climate departure in cities and its lethal impact

C. Mora (1) ; B. Dousset (2) ; C. Trauernicht (3) ; I. Caldwell (4) ; Q. Chen (1) ; C. Dau (1) ; B. Dietrich (5) ; R. Fang (1) ; R. Geronimo (1) ; E. Johnston (6) ; L. Li (7) ; M. Lucas (3) ; M. Mckenzie (1) ; F. Powell (1)
(1) University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Department of geography, Honolulu, United States of America; (2) University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Hawai'i institute of geophysics and planetology, Honolulu, United States of America; (3) University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Department of natural resources and environmental management, Honolulu, United States of America; (4) University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Hawaii institute of marine biology, Honolulu, United States of America; (5) University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Department of plant and environmental protection sciences, Honolulu, United States of America; (6) University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Department of botany, Honolulu, United States of America; (7) University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Department of atmospheric sciences, Honolulu, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate models for the 21st century predict a year-to-year variability in summer temperatures that lead to a significant increase in the occurrence, intensity, and duration of heat waves. These are especially deadly in urban areas that account for half the world population and are characterized by heat island effects, production of anthropogenic heat, and aging inhabitants. We investigated the projected times after which mean summer climate in large cities will shift beyond historical values, generating environmental conditions that will endanger human health. Data on urban extreme heat events and their related mortality during 1980-2010 were collected from an extensive literature review and relevant websites. When mapped, these data are predominantly distributed in the mid-latitudes, indicating either a more intense warming or/and a lack of available data in tropical regions. Climate variables and time of occurrence were extracted from actual data to identify the set of conditions that exceed human tolerance to extreme heat events. These thresholds were then combined with Earth System Models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 using different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) to estimate the timing of lethal climates. Results indicate a strong association between climate anomalies and fatal weather events in the past and suggest that such events will occur periodically in all the largest cities of the world. Although it is possible that human adaptation and resilience to heat stress could reduce mortality, it is clear that ongoing climate change will pose a threat to human survival over vast areas of the world. The foreseeable urban summer climate departures call for a global and substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. They also prompt for local implementation of sustainable mitigation strategies and for public health actions in order to reduce the lethal impact of climate change.

Investigation of uncertainty in the IPCC AR5 precipitation and temperature projections over Iran under RPC scenarios

N. Ghahreman (University of Tehran, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran), M. Tabatabaei (University of Tehran, Alborz, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran), I. Babaeian (Climatological Research Institute, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran)

Abstract details
Investigation of uncertainty in the IPCC AR5 precipitation and temperature projections over Iran under RPC scenarios

N. Ghahreman (1) ; M. Tabatabaei (2) ; I. Babaeian (3)
(1) University of Tehran, Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) University of Tehran, Irrigation and reclamation engineering dep., Alborz, Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran; (3) Climatological Research Institute, Mashhad, Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract content

Upon release of new scenarios based on Radiative Forcing which are known as Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP scenarios), by Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) in fifth assessment report (AR5), a new set of 42 global climate models (GCMs) have been proposed for future climate projections. By increasing number of available models for running and application to 42 which have been metioned in AR5, three main sources of uncertainty including: measurement error, variability, and model structure, have been explained and studied. The main aim of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of outputs of 37 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for precipitation and temperature data in Iran. Required data consist of two main groups: Simulated historical data and Observations. The observed data of rainfall and temperature were retrieved from three sources. Two databases namely; Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project, and selected synoptic stations over Iran. Comparisons were made between the data reported in the climatic databases and those observed in synoptic stations using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Bias Error (MBE) indices. The Monte Carlo simulation approach was used for uncertainty analysis of the simulated values of monthly precipitation and temperature and study stations observations. The results showed that there exists a close agreement between NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project data and observed ones, hence it was chosen as an alternate to observations for choosing the best models among the 37 selected GCMs. The latter section of study revealed that among the selected models, MPI-ESM-MR, MPI-ESM-LR, and NorESM1-M have the best performance in generating the rainfall and temperature data for baseline period of 1960-2000. Further studies using different sets of GCMs is recommended for more scrutiny.

Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on the Growing Season in Butana Region and North Kordofan, Sudan

F. El-Hag, (Agricultural Research Corporation, Khartoum, Sudan)

Abstract details
Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on the Growing Season in Butana Region and North Kordofan, Sudan

F. El-Hag, (1)
(1) Agricultural Research Corporation, Dry lands research center, Khartoum, Sudan

Abstract content

This study applied remote sensing to evaluate the effects of climate changes on growing season in different agro-ecological zones, in North Kordofan and Butana region, Sudan, for the period 2001-2011. NDVI data were used for the NDVI time series and phenological analysis. Within the semidesert zone in Butana region, the trend for the starting date of the growing season was stable, while that for the end of the season indicated a shift to an earlier date, resulting in shorter growing season (av. 80 days). Minimum NDVI value was 0.13 in 2011 and maximum value was 0.16 in 2010, indicating an increasing trend. In North Kordofan, however, the average length of the growing season was 69 days and the minimum and maximum NDVI (production) value was 0.12 in 2011 and 0.32 in 2009, respectively, indicating a decreasing trend. Within the arid zone in Butana region, the trend for the end of the growing season indicated a shift towards a later date, resulting in more number of days (av. 81 days). Minimum and maximum NDVI (production) value was 0.27 in 2009 and 0.45 in 2003, respectively, indicating a decreasing trend. In North Kordofan, the shortest length of the season was 59 days in 2005 and the longest was 116 days in 2009, reflecting a considerable increase in the length of the growing season. The minimum and maximum NDVI value was 0.23 in 2011 and 0.39 in 2002, respectively, with an average of 0.31, indicating a decreasing trend. Within the semiarid zone in Butana region, the length of the growing season and the NDVI value showed a trend of increase, whereas in North Kordofan, they showed a decreasing trend.

Diatoms evidence for past two centuries major changes in seasonal sea surface conditions prior the instrumental period in the southern Gulf of California

L. Barbara (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico D.f, Mexico), S. Schmidt (CNRS, UMR 5805 EPOC, Université Bordeaux , Pessac, France), J. Urrutia Fucugauchi (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico D.f, Mexico), L. Perez Cruz (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Mexico D.f, Mexico)

Abstract details
Diatoms evidence for past two centuries major changes in seasonal sea surface conditions prior the instrumental period in the southern Gulf of California

L. Barbara (1) ; S. Schmidt (2) ; J. Urrutia Fucugauchi (1) ; L. Perez Cruz (1)
(1) Universidad Nacional Autónoma de Mexico, Instituto de geofisica, Mexico D.f, Mexico; (2) CNRS, UMR 5805 EPOC, Université Bordeaux , Pessac, France

Abstract content

Studies on laminated marine sediments have enabled to exploit annual to subseasonal information of oceanic and climatic conditions of the past, and particularly in the Gulf of California where there are excellent laminated records, underlying anoxic basins. These studies, however, are based on resin-embedded thin sections and present only qualitative snapshots of the past environments. Any of them have compared high resolution records with instrumental data, in order to reconstruct the environmental conditions and document the variability on interannual to decadal timescales beyond the instrumental period.

Here, we describe environmental conditions in the eastern part of Carmen Basin in the southern Gulf of California, over the past two centuries using diatom census counts in the DIPALV-C33 marine sediment box core. Diatom census counts show progressive changes since AD 1850, marked by persistent warm stratified and nutrient limited water conditions on the Gulf eastern sector. In parallel, inferred environmental conditions provide evidence for reduced seasonal upwelling during the last century and limiting primary productivity, concurrent with increase of storm/hurricane frequency. We propose that these multi-decadal sea surface variations are mainly governed by synoptic and regional wind fields in relation to the position and intensity of the atmospheric low and high-pressure trough around the Gulf of California. However, both ENSO and PDO variability patterns in the last century cannot explain the regional trend observed in this study, probably due to the effect of local processes on the response of our biological proxies.

Mitigation and Adaptation are not enough: turning to emissions reduction abroad

A. Ayong Le Kama (EconomiX, Nanterre, Cedex, France), A. Pommeret, (School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, G5702, 5/F, Academic 1, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon,, Hong Kong)

Abstract details
Mitigation and Adaptation are not enough: turning to emissions reduction abroad

A. Ayong Le Kama (1) ; A. Pommeret, (2)
(1) EconomiX, University of Paris West, Nanterre - La Défense, Nanterre, Cedex, France; (2) School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, G5702, 5/F, Academic 1, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon,, Hong Kong

Abstract content

In this paper we focus on a long-term dynamic analysis of the optimal adaptation/mitigation mix in the presence of a pollution threshold above which adaptation is no longer efficient.

We account for accumulation in abatement capital, greenhouse gases, and adaptation capital in order to better capture the arbitrage between abatement and adaptation investments.

Pollution damages arise from the emissions due to the country consumption but also from the emissions of the rest of the world (ROW).

A pollution threshold is then introduced, above which adaptation is no longer efficient. We obtain that if this threshold is lower than the steady-state level of pollution, there is no way for the modeled economy to avoid it. In particular, such a situation will appear if the ROW's emissions are high.

Next step is then to introduce another type of investment allowing for lower ROW pollution ie. emissions reduction abroad through some mechanisms like CDM for instance. We obtain that CDM may be a means to avoid a pollution threshold above which adaptation becomes of no use.

When can we expect to see the benefits of climate mitigation?

B. Sanderson (NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States of America), B. O'neill (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America), C. Tebaldi (NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States of America), G. Strand (NCAR, Boulder, United States of America)

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When can we expect to see the benefits of climate mitigation?

B. Sanderson (1) ; B. O'neill (2) ; C. Tebaldi (3) ; G. Strand (4)
(1) NCAR, Climate Change Research, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO, United States of America; (3) NCAR, CGD, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (4) NCAR, Boulder, United States of America

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We present a two 30 member ensembles of possible future climate using a single climate model, CESM, to assess the question of when climate mitigation action becomes evident in the presence of irreducible internal climate variability.  Our business-as-usual and mitigation ensembles assume the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios respectively, and we find that although internal varaibility causes a comparable uncertainty to the differences in forced climate response until 2050, significant differences in the risk of extreme warm events are evident in as early as 2025 in the two scenarios for some regions (and for most regions by 2040).  Furthermore, the following decades from 2050-2080 see largely separate temperature distributions in the two ensembles for most regions, although we do not see significant differences in precipitation between the two scenarios even for periods after 2060.  Hence, in the CESM's representation of the Earth System for the latter portion of the 21st century, the risks of impacts related to temperature extremes in the next 20 years can be significantly reduced by greenhouse gas mitigation, even in the presence of internal climate variability.

Sub-Saharan Africa Climate in CMIP5

W. Thiaw (5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, College Park, United States of America)

Abstract details
Sub-Saharan Africa Climate in CMIP5

W. Thiaw (1)
(1) 5. National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA, College Park, United States of America

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This paper examines the Sub-Saharan Africa climate in CMIP5.  First we evaluate the historical simulations of continental and regional climatology with a focus on a core set of thirteen models.  Second, we compare the CMIP5 climate projections with the historical simulations.  We use both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 model simulations.  We evaluate the historical runs for a set of basic surface climate and hydrological variables and their extremes for the continent for the period 1979 - 2005.  In addition, we conducted evaluations for selected regional climate processes relevant to the African climate, including the West African monsoon, the Greater Horn of Africa spring and fall bimodal rains, and the southern Africa warm season.  For temperature and climate variables, we use ERA-I and NCEP reanalysis as proxy for observations.  For precipitation, we use GPCP and CMAP.  Models are able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of basic climate and hydrological variables but with considerable differences across models and regions in the magnitude and sign of errors.  The variability in surface air temperature compares reasonably well with observations. For West Africa precipitation, the north–south migration of the ITCZ is fairly well captured in 10 of the 13 models.  However, while CMAP and GPCP place the area of maximum precipitation in August around 10˚N, only a few of the models (3 out of 13) captured this feature.  Results from a similar analysis for the Greater of Africa and for southern Africa are presented.  The ability of the models to capture extreme events such as drought or flood events has also been investigated and the results presented.

Examining the projected changes in precipitation and temperature trends, we present the differences from the seasonal mean between the last 27 years of the 21st century (2073 – 2099) and the period spanning 1979 – 2005. For DJF southern Africa rainfall season, precipitation changes are significant for only four of the models.  Two of these models exhibit a drying trend over southern Africa, one exhibit a wet trend, and one model shows dryness in the northeastern part of southern Africa and wetness in the south.  For the MAM season, only the CSIRO and HADGEM2 show a reduction in rainfall across south central Africa.  For the JAS season, MIROC exhibits a wet trend in West Africa, while CSIRO reduces precipitation there.  Precipitation changes in all other models are not significant.  For the OND season, CanESM2, CSIRO and HadGEM2 exhibit a wet trend over East Africa, though there are some differences in the location of the changes in intensity.  None of the models depicts a significant dry trend over this region.  For temperature, however, all the models project positive temperature changes across Africa.  Finally, the dynamic patterns associated with the changes in precipitation and air temperature are presented.

Recent Observations and Experiences of Glaciers response to Intrinsic Climatic Variability: the Himalayan Inquest

P. Kumar (Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, India), M. Sharma (Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, India)

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Recent Observations and Experiences of Glaciers response to Intrinsic Climatic Variability: the Himalayan Inquest

P. Kumar (1) ; M. Sharma (2)
(1) Jawaharlal Nehru University, Centre for the Study of Regional Development, Delhi, India; (2) Jawaharlal Nehru University, Centre of the study of regional development, Delhi, India

Abstract content

  The earth’s climate has undergone a many phases of both long and short term fluctuations in the past; more so during the late Quaternary period. However, the recent climatic fluctuation has become a bone of contention among scientist for as to what causes these changes; to be precise, through the human actions. Therefore, the understanding the varying role of natural and human actions needs to be precisely quantified for a better understating and impact thereof. The Himalayan environ, with one of the sensitive parameters in the form of ice and glaciers, provides an indispensable laboratory for evaluating and understanding climate variability through these fluctuations in space over a longer temporal scale. Many climate scientists agree on the warming trend of climate past few decades. There are no concrete studies on regional climatic variability especially at the higher altitudes. As a layman we understand that climate changes regionally, based on latitude, altitude, aspect, and land-cover and so on.  Lack of climatic data in the Himalayan region limits us to assess just this sensitive key in the form of glaciers on a longer time scale, given the understating that response time is very large. Now the question arises, how much do we know about the changing climate in the Himalayas? We present here the land surface temperature (LST, MODIS) data of the higher altitudes and behavior of glaciers for past one decade in the Himalaya and an assessment among the point source data and grid based data analyzed. Point source data of Bhojbhas has taken from the Automatic Weather Station (AWS), Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). The grid source data are satellite based Land Surface Temperature (LST) temperature data obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS).A strong relationship emerges between satellite based and ground based data, a useful indicator if considered, especially in case of high altitude and a complex climate system like the Himalaya. The analysis of data are provides a very strong and positive correlation (0.887), which means 89 percent of SASE data, is explained by the MODIS data, which is very encouraging. The coefficient of determination is 0.7870; therefore, about 78.7% of the variation in the SASE data is explained by MODIS data. The root mean square error (standard deviation of regression) is 2.4569, which is very close also provides a better fit. All the stations values are represented on the simple line; and a simple linear trend lines have been drawn on temporal framework.  The daily data trend of all the station does not show significant results in a simple regress line (2000-2013). But the yearly trend line data shows variability as; Harsil (0.241); Bhaironghati (0.157); Bhojbhas (0.158); Kalapani (0.208), Rudugaira (0.104), Raktavarn (0.0103) and Chaturangi (0.134) which is highly significant. There is a high variability in the elements but is not reflected as such in the study area during the last thirteen years. Trend lines show downward dip, meaning that there has been, without any doubt, temperature has dropped during 2000-2013. It is but true that temperature is a highly variable component in the high altitudes and may vary on the hourly and daily basis. But the thirteen years of data for five different stations portray a declining trend. Behavior of minimum and maximum temperature variability is not similar, each at varied nature in different stations. Given that we have not been able to assess precipitation characteristics for the same duration for these stations, it is highly speculative to assume that declining trend line may, on a longer temporal scale, would uphold the Himalayan glacier beyond the limit of imagination. Indeed the last 100 years glacier responses with differential rate due to their different geomorphological, geographical, climatic conditions and especially the response time. Same types of results are observed in Western Himalaya, particularly in case of Gangotri glacier, which is retreating with an alarming rate until. Although since 2001 rate of retreat has been slow down and particularly 2007 onwards there are no significant changes in glacier snout. Interestingly terrestrial records are showing that two of its tributary glaciers as Rakatavarn and Chaturangi glacier are showing positive change in their mass and terminus position since 1994. It propounds the complexity of glacier responses even within same geographical and climatic conditions, which means behavior of glacier is identical in nature, with self strength of mind. 

Two degrees or not two degrees: that is the question – interim results from ICA-RUS project

S. Emori (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), T. Kiyoshi (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), Y. Yamagata (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan), S. Kanae (Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan), S. Mori (Tokyo University of Science, Noda, Chiba, Japan), Y. Fujigaki (The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan)

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Two degrees or not two degrees: that is the question – interim results from ICA-RUS project

S. Emori (1) ; T. Kiyoshi (1) ; Y. Yamagata (1) ; S. Kanae (2) ; S. Mori (3) ; Y. Fujigaki (4)
(1) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; (2) Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan; (3) Tokyo University of Science, Department of Industrial Administration, Noda, Chiba, Japan; (4) The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

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Politically, the long-term target of climate change might not actually be a question at this moment. However, we have to repeatedly ask ourselves the question – whether it should really be “two degrees” and why – to ensure that the target is kept transparent, responsible and relevant.

We have tackled this issue from a risk management perspective in an interdisciplinary research project, called the Integrated Climate Assessment – Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS) since 2012, funded by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. It has tried to integrate insights from the areas of climate risk assessment, energy economics modeling, energy-water-food-ecosystem nexus, and STS (science, technology and society). By a risk management perspective, we mean that the problem is framed as an informed, adaptive decision making under uncertainties (potentially including deep uncertainties), involving social value judgment.

We have supposed three “Alternatives left to humanity” represented by mitigation targets, 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 degrees C, below which humanity tries to keep the global mean temperature increase relative to preindustrial levels at a probability of 50% (which roughly translate into 2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 degrees C targets at a higher probability like 80%).

For each alternative mitigation target, potential consequences have been assessed for various sectors including disastrous weather events, water resources, agriculture, health, ecosystem and tipping elements. The potential consequences are represented by a range taking into account uncertainties in climate, mitigation and socio-economics. Thus, for example, even if 2.0 degrees C target is set, the potential consequence includes a 3.0 degrees or higher global mean temperature increase associated with corresponding impacts, due to various kinds of uncertainties.

At the same time, possible combinations of mitigation options and associated mitigation costs have been assessed for each mitigation target with multiple energy economics models with different modeling assumptions. Various risks and opportunities (side-effects and co-benefits) associated with each mitigation option are also kept in mind.

Putting these assessments together, the project is currently in the process of characterizing the risks to be reduced and to be retained for each “Alternative” (i.e., each mitigation target). As a next step, adaptation effort needed and potential effect of geoengineering consideration for each Alternative will be assessed. Possible public participation process in the risk decision to enhance social rationality is also being discussed. 

Influence of Water Resource Management on Altering Hydrological Drought under Climate Change

Y. Satoh (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, France), K. Yoshimura (The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan), P. Yadu (Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Camden, United States of America), H. Kim (The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan), T. Oki (University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan)

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Influence of Water Resource Management on Altering Hydrological Drought under Climate Change

Y. Satoh (1) ; K. Yoshimura (2) ; P. Yadu (3) ; H. Kim (4) ; T. Oki (5)
(1) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Water, Laxenburg, France; (2) The University of Tokyo, Atmoshpere and ocean research institute, Kashiwa, Japan; (3) Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Camden, United States of America; (4) The University of Tokyo, Institute of industrial science, Tokyo, Japan; (5) University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Abstract content

It is expected that global warming alters hydrometeorological cycle and influences on occurrence of drought. Future drought is projected to increase with high probability in some regions, such as the Mediterranean region, the west side of USA and so on, resulting in severer water scarcity. Nevertheless only few studies have investigated the effect of planned water management, such as dam regulation and irrigation, against drought. Understanding of the effect of existing infrastructures under changing water-environment is needed for our society to adapt to future climate changes. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the effect of the anthropogenic activities on terrestrial water cycle as well as the impacts of climate changes.

This study focuses on hydrological drought, particularly on stream drought. HiGW-MAT, a state of arts land surface model capable to reproduce energy and water cycle considering the anthropogenic water management, was used to simulate historical and future terrestrial water cycle under RCP scenarios. Five bias-corrected CMIP5 GCM outputs provided by ISI-MIP fast track for 1980-2099 were used to force a set of simulations.

Future drought was projected, and hot spots of climate change impact were detected with uncertainty discussion. It was found that number of hydrological drought days would increase and decrease over approximately 70 % and 25 % of global land. Increase of drought days in the first half of 21th century is larger than that of the second half in 19 out of 26 regions of IPCC regional classification. The effect of anthropogenic water management is depicted as a difference between simulations with and without anthropogenic components. As for time series variation, the difference showed that both of short-term variation and long-term change are alleviated by introduction of water management, though it was also suggested that exploitation of water from river due to water use accelerates drought. This model exercise presents a valuable preliminary evaluation of human impact for the purpose of planning of more practical assessment which provides optimal water management scenarios.

Spring temperatures in the far-western Nepal Himalaya since AD 1640 reconstructed from Picea smithiana tree-ring widths

U. Kuwar Thapa (University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States of America), S. K. Shah, (Birbal Sahni Institute of Paleobotany, Lucknow, India), D. R. Bhuju, (Central Department of Environmental Science, Kathmandu, Nepal), N. P. Gaire (Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Lalitpur, Nepal), S. St. George (University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States of America)

Abstract details
Spring temperatures in the far-western Nepal Himalaya since AD 1640 reconstructed from Picea smithiana tree-ring widths

U. Kuwar Thapa (1) ; SK. Shah, (2) ; DR. Bhuju, (3) ; NP. Gaire (4) ; S. St. George (1)
(1) University of Minnesota, Geography, Environment and Society, Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States of America; (2) Birbal Sahni Institute of Paleobotany, Lucknow, India; (3) Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuvan university, Kathmandu, Nepal; (4) Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Faculty of Science, Lalitpur, Nepal

Abstract content

The Nepal Himalaya has heated rapidly over the last four decades (more than twice the mean global rate), with this warming being even more pronounced in higher elevations. Unfortunately, because climate records in most of the country does not go extend prior to AD 1980, these short records make it more difficult to gauge the rate and (potential causes) of recent changes or enact long-term plans for resource management in the Nepal Himalaya under changing climate.

We conducted dendroclimatic study in order to extend the temperature record in western Nepal Himalaya beyond the instrumental period. For this, we developed a new, 422-year long tree-ring width chronology (spanning AD 1591–2012) from Picea smithiana (Wall.) Boiss in Khaptad National Park, which is located in the far-western Nepalese Himalaya. Seasonal correlation analysis revealed significant indirect relationship with spring temperature (March-May) and lead to the reconstruction of March–May average temperature for the past 373 years (AD 1640–2012). The reconstruction was found significant based on validation statistics commonly used in tree-ring based climate reconstruction. Furthermore, it was validated through spatial correlation with gridded temperature data. This temperature reconstruction identified several periods of warming and cooling. The reconstruction did not show the significant pattern of cooling during the Little Ice Age but there were few cold episodes recorded. However, the reconstructed temperature revealed the recent warming for last three decades as recorded in the stations. Wavelet analysis revealed high frequency variability (2-7 years) of spring temperature in western Nepal Himalaya for last four centuries, which can be linked to global climate system, El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Significant negative correlations were found between the spring temperature in western Nepal and temperatures of monsoon and post monsoon seasons over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This showed western Nepal Himalaya has linkages with climatic variability in a global scale.

This multi-centennial reconstruction of temperature in western Nepal Himalaya would serve as a basis for Ministry of Environment, Science and Technology to develop climate change adaptation strategies, including the National Adaptation Program of Actions and Local Adaptation Plans of Action. Future climate modeling shall also possible with this long available estimated temperature record for west Nepal.

Temperature impact on Non-Communicatble Diseases in Africa – a Blind Spot in Research

A. Bunker (University of Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany), E. Diboulo, (Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland), A. Sié, (Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso), R. Sauerborn (Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany)

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Temperature impact on Non-Communicatble Diseases in Africa – a Blind Spot in Research

A. Bunker (1) ; E. Diboulo, (2) ; A. Sié, (3) ; R. Sauerborn (4)
(1) University of Heidelberg, Network Ageing Research and Institute of Public Health, Heidelberg, Germany; (2) Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Basel, Switzerland; (3) Centre de Recherche en Santé de Nouna, Nouna, Burkina Faso; (4) Heidelberg University, Institute of public health, Heidelberg, Germany

Abstract content

The mean temperature in northwest rural Burkina Faso, in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) region, is projected to increase under different climate change scenarios by the end of the 21st Century[1]. The Nouna HDSS consists of approximately 100,000 people, and is one of several International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH) sites that collect health and demographic data across populations in low-and-middle income countries. As life expectancy increases in Burkina Faso and people live for longer with chronic and degenerative diseases, non-communicable disease will play a greater role in contributing to the burden of disease. This study assesses the impact of 18 years of temperature exposure on non-communicable disease years of life lost, an indicator of premature mortality, in the Nouna HDSS population.

Preliminary analysis used all-cause mortality data from the Nouna HDSS, to conduct a survival analysis and calculate the outcome variable, years of life lost, for 12,769 deaths between 1993-2000. A time-series regression analysis using the generalized additive model, adjusted for time-trends and seasonality was used to study the impact of mean temperature on all-cause mortality. Results indicate that a 1°C increase in temperature was associated with a 1.024 relative risk increase (p value=0.029) in all-cause mortality per 1°C increase in mean temperature above 30°C (1 day lag). We will present an extended 18-year cause-specific time-series analysis on the impact of mean, maximum and minimum temperature on non-communicable disease years of life lost, including the lagged effects.

As life expectancy at the Nouna HDSS increases, the burden on non-communicable disease is likely to increase with higher temperatures. Targeted preventive measures are required to alleviate this burden.

 

[1] David M Hondula, Joacim Rocklöv, and Osman A Sankoh, “Past, Present, and Future Climate at Select INDEPTH Member Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Africa and Asia,” Global Health Action 5, no. 0 (November 23, 2012), doi:10.3402/gha.v5i0.19083.

Modelling ecosystem response to present and future drought events in Western Europe with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model

A.-J. Henrot (Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques, Liège, Belgium), M. Dury (Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques, Liège, Belgium), A. Hambuckers (Biologie du Comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale, Liège, Belgium), G. Munhoven (Laboratoire de Physique Atmosphérique et Planétaire, Liège, Belgium), I. Jacquemin (Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques, Liège, Belgium), L. François (Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques, Liège, Belgium)

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Modelling ecosystem response to present and future drought events in Western Europe with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model

AJ. Henrot (1) ; M. Dury (1) ; A. Hambuckers (2) ; G. Munhoven (3) ; I. Jacquemin (1) ; L. François (1)
(1) Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques, Département d'astrophysique, de géophysique et d'océanographie, Liège, Belgium; (2) Biologie du Comportement - Ethologie et psychologie animale, Département de biologie, écologie et évolution, Liège, Belgium; (3) Laboratoire de Physique Atmosphérique et Planétaire, Département d'astrophysique, de géophysique et d'océanographie, Liège, Belgium

Abstract content

With unprecedented speed and extent, future climate change can be expected to severely impact terrestrial ecosystems due to more frequent extreme events, such as droughts or heat waves. These extreme events might lead to severe impacts on terrestrial plants functioning, implying reduction in net primary production and possibly plant mortality in many regions. The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Integration and Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP2) has been explicitly designed to evaluate the models’ ability to reproduce observed historical variability, and response to present-day and future extreme climatic events, reflecting the interest of the community as well as stakeholders in this particular topic.

In this contribution, we analyse the results over Western Europe of the ISI-MIP2 simulations performed with the CARAIB dynamic vegetation model (Dury et al., 2011, iForest 4, 82-99), for a series of well-marked drought events in the simulated historical and future periods. This analysis is performed at the species level, using a set of 99 species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 40 trees), especially designed to represent the European vegetation. Model response to drought events is evaluated in terms of several important environmental variables, such as soil water and hydric stress, runoff, PFT/species abundance, net primary productivity and biomass, fire frequency, and turnover of soil organic matter. Some sensitivity tests are performed to study the impacts of changing some not well-constrained model parameters, such as thresholds and response times for plant mortality induced by soil water stress. 

Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series

M. Williamson (university of exeter, exeter, United Kingdom), T. Lenton (university of exeter, exeter, United Kingdom)

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Detection of bifurcations in noisy coupled systems from multiple time series

M. Williamson (1) ; T. Lenton (1)
(1) university of exeter, exeter, United Kingdom

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We generalize a method of detecting an approaching bifurcation in a time series of a noisy system from the special case of one dynamical variable to multiple dynamical variables. For a system described by a stochastic differential equation consisting of an autonomous deterministic part with one dynamical variable and an additive white noise term, small perturbations away from the system's fixed point will decay slower the closer the system is to a bifurcation. This phenomenon is known as critical slowing down and all such systems exhibit this decay-type behaviour. However, when the deterministic part has multiple coupled dynamical variables, the possible dynamics can be much richer, exhibiting oscillatory and chaotic behaviour. In our generalization to the multi-variable case, we find additional indicators to decay rate, such as frequency of oscillation. In the case of approaching a homoclinic bifurcation, there is no change in decay rate but there is a decrease in frequency of oscillations. The expanded method therefore adds extra tools to help detect and classify approaching bifurcations given multiple time series, where the underlying dynamics are not fully known. Our generalisation also allows bifurcation detection to be applied spatially if one treats each spatial location as a new dynamical variable. One may then determine the unstable spatial mode(s). This is also something that has not been possible with the single variable method. The method is applicable to any set of time series regardless of its origin, but may be particularly useful when anticipating abrupt changes in the multi-dimensional climate system.

Defining dangerous climate change in accordance to international law: What is and is not “dangerous” and how to define “dangerousness”? International standards for certain basic considerations for “policy-makers”, “policy-takers”, scientist and jurists

S. Pena (Universidad Bernardo O Higgins, Santiago de Chile, Chile)

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Defining dangerous climate change in accordance to international law: What is and is not “dangerous” and how to define “dangerousness”? International standards for certain basic considerations for “policy-makers”, “policy-takers”, scientist and jurists

S. Pena (1)
(1) Universidad Bernardo O Higgins, Law and Environment, Santiago de Chile, Chile

Abstract content

It has been a common theme among commentators the consequences for living forms on the change of climate. The main problem is to define “danger” before it comes to a natural disaster. Natural disasters have been faced in Chile and South American countries in the last ten years and they have been described since the beginning of the discovery by Christopher Columbus in 1492. The “El Niño” and “La Niña” environmental phenomena are some of the effects in the change of the weather defined by indigenous people and local communities. This might be described as the “minimum” danger, a danger that has been noticed clearly by none experts. On the other hand the “Chaiten” Volcano in 2008 and the Chilean Earthquake in 2010 show the degree of destruction of natural disasters. This might be described as a “strong” danger, a current one. In between is possible to find a danger that has been described but still is not defined by humans, it is subtle danger: Climate change is a “silence disaster” because it affects slowly but without capability to be aware of the danger and to contain the consequences that are established in between the defined basic change and the disaster, therefore in a moment it is necessary to define the concept of “current strong danger”. This article will focus on the capacity of international law to present certain basic elements for policy makers and policy takers (defined as those that implement or propose change of policies and laws at the national level) in order to define “menace” on the human beings and on the plants, animals and microorganisms by the destruction of habitats when the change of the climate is able to destroy such habitats. In this sense rights and obligations between States, from States to human and “non-human” beings and for the Nature are proposals to define “current strong danger”. When those rights to life have been affected by the modification of the climate a first approach towards the definition of “danger” will be in place. Therefore the process of prevention has to be detained and measures towards mitigation and recovery has to be established. International law and law in general has defined many of these words like equitableness, justice, “fumus bonis iuris” and now is necessary to define “danger” in a present and solid form based on international law. A first approach will be international conventions on climate change and economic rights of persons, human rights of the persons and possibly the Rights of Nature.

The problematic absence of a definition for “climate damage”

N. Kugler (CERIC, Aix-en-Provence, France)

Abstract details
The problematic absence of a definition for “climate damage”

N. Kugler (1)
(1) CERIC, Aix-en-Provence, France

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With the growing severity of climate change impacts, development of a clear definition of the concept of “climate damage” is essential. However, efforts in this area are complicated by the absence of uniform definition of “damage” in international law.

 

Moreover, the multiplicity of similar terms in the legal texts of the international climate regime such as “adverse effects of climate change”, “loss and damage”, impacts, adverse effects, adverse impacts, etc., without mention of “climate damage”, further obstructs efforts to delimit the scope of this kind of damage.

 

Finally, “loss and damage”, which seems to be the notion officially employed in the context of the decisions made by the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the term with the greatest potential to correspond to “climate damage”, does not seem to resemble damage as understood in international law and there is no consensus among the Parties on its definition.

 

Consequently, it is important to point out the legal vacuum that exists in respect of the definition of “climate damage”. This is all the more significant, in the context of negotiations of the new agreement under the UNFCCC which is meant to be signed in 2015 as this concept could be useful for differentiating between the developed and developing country Parties.

 

Given that conceptual clarity is required to be able to determine whether such damage attracts the liability of a State in international law, the lack of a clear definition is all the more concerning.

A regional differentiation of climate impacts at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C

C.-F. Schleussner (Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany), T. Lissner (Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany), J. Wohland (Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), E. Fischer, (ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland), K. Frieler, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
A regional differentiation of climate impacts at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C

CF. Schleussner (1) ; T. Lissner (1) ; J. Wohland (2) ; E. Fischer, (3) ; K. Frieler, (4)
(1) Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; (2) Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; (4) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Article 2 of the UNFCCC specifies that the aim of the convention is the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”. Limiting global mean warming below 2°C increase above pre-industrial levels has been widely accepted as a global goal in this context.   However, many vulnerable countries, particularly small island developing states and least developed countries, have questioned whether this limit is sufficient to protect their interests, and as a consequence there is an international process underway to evaluate risks and damages at different levels of warming, including 1.5°C and 2°C.  Studies of current and expected future impacts of climate change suggest that significant negative impacts, relevant to Article 2 of the UNFCCC may be felt at lower levels of warming than 2°C.  Within the UNFCCC there is a formal process reviewing the 2° limit, and examining the possibility of changing it towards 1.5°C.

At present there is a gap in the scientific literature and methods to rigorously and qualitatively assess differential impacts at these levels of warming. Here we present a framework that allows for a differentiation of regional changes in climate impacts at different levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase, focusing on the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C. Based on data from the CMIP5 archive as well as output from the ISIMIP project, we assess the climate impact projections for the 26 world regions used in the IPCC SREX report. We show results for several extreme event indices as well as projections of water availability and agricultural yields. Furthermore, we are able to test for statistical significance of changes in climate impact projections between the different warming levels across the model ensemble.

As climate impacts are not necessarily linear, it is important to understand whether a significant shift in the magnitude of impacts may occur between the different temperature levels and little attention has been given to such a shift at lower levels of warming. Furthermore, the consequences of average global temperature increase are not linearly distributed across regions. A differentiation of the spatial manifestation of change is therefore of high relevance for regional planning, in order to develop suitable coping strategies and adaptation options, as well as to inform decisions about the appropriate long-term global temperature goal.

Projected changes, climate change signal, and uncertainties in the CMIP5-based projections of ocean surface wave heights

X. Wang (Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada), Y. Feng, (Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada), V. R. Swail, (Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada)

Abstract details
Projected changes, climate change signal, and uncertainties in the CMIP5-based projections of ocean surface wave heights

X. Wang (1) ; Y. Feng, (1) ; VR. Swail, (1)
(1) Environment Canada, Climate Research Division, Science & Techonology Branch, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Abstract content

Ocean surface waves can be major hazards in coastal and offshore activities. However, wave observations are available only at limited locations and cover only the recent few decades. Also, there exists very limited information on ocean wave behavior in response to climate change, because such information is not simulated in current global climate models.

 

In a recent study, we used a multivariate regression model with lagged dependent variable to make statistical global projections of changes in significant wave heights (Hs) using mean sea level pressure (SLP) information from 20 CMIP5 climate models for the twenty-first century. The statistical model was calibrated and validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and SLP for the period 1981-2010.  The results show Hs increases in the tropics (especially in the eastern tropical Pacific) and in southern hemisphere high-latitudes. Under the projected 2070-2099 climate condition of the RCP8.5 scenario, the occurrence frequency of the present-day one-in-10-year extreme wave heights is likely to double or triple in several coastal regions around the world (e.g., the Chilean coast, Gulf of Oman, Gulf of Bengal, Gulf of Mexico).

 

More recently, we used the analysis of variance approaches to quantify the climate change signal and uncertainty in multi-model ensembles of statistical Hs simulations globally, which are based on the CMIP5 historical, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenario simulations of SLP. In a 4-model 3-run ensemble, the 4-model common signal of climate change is found to strengthen over time, as would be expected. For the historical followed by RCP8.5 scenario, the common signal in annual mean Hs is found to be significant over 16.6%, 55.0% and 82.2% of the area by year 2005, 2050 and 2099, respectively. For the annual maximum, the signal is much weaker. The signal is strongest in the eastern tropical Pacific, featuring significant increases in both the annual mean and maximum of Hs in this region. The climate model uncertainty (i.e., inter-model variability) is significant over 99.9% of the area; its magnitude is comparable to or greater than the climate change signal by 2099 over most areas, except in the eastern tropical Pacific where the signal is much larger. In a 20-model 2-scenario single-run ensemble of statistical Hs simulations for the period 2006-2099, the model uncertainty is found to be significant globally; it is about 10 times as large as the scenario uncertainty between RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

MEAs, Mandates and More – A coordinated regime complex for ocean acidification

E. Harrould-Kolieb (The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia)

Abstract details
MEAs, Mandates and More – A coordinated regime complex for ocean acidification

E. Harrould-Kolieb (1)
(1) The University of Melbourne, School of Geography, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Abstract content

Ocean acidification, a complex global issue, results from the emission of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and is exacerbated by a myriad of local stressors. Its consequences are not limited by geography and largely occur in an area of the global commons. It has uneven impacts, results in both ecological winners and losers and has implications for biodiversity, economic stability and sustainable development, with its solutions intimately tied with other global problems. As a result, it is of relevance to many treaties and yet, does not fall neatly within the mandate of any.

It has been suggested that ocean acidification appears to exist in somewhat of a legal twilight zone (Baird et.al. 2009), with no treaty body seemingly willing and able to take on the issue. Kim (2012, p.257) observes that ocean acidification “sits within a very complex institutional landscape, at a rather cracked interface between the climate, biodiversity and oceans regimes.” This ambiguity and lack of clarity around the responsibility for addressing ocean acidification within the international policy space is likely to be a contributing factor in the apparent lack of action to mitigate and further respond to ocean acidification (Kim 2012, Herr et.al. 2014). As it currently stands, no single treaty or international instrument has been established to address ocean acidification as a stand-alone issue.

In response to the apparent lack of policy action on ocean acidification, the development of a completely new comprehensive treaty to respond to ocean acidification has been proposed. However, this is unrealistic, as there is likely to be little interest among states to do so. In light of this, this paper offers an alternative path forward by proposing the parsing out of activities needed to respond to ocean acidification across a range of existing multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), overseen by an umbrella body and thereby forming a coordinated ocean acidification regime complex.

A variety of applicable treaties already exist that could take on elements of a broader coordinated response to ocean acidification. Indeed, a number are already taking action to address ocean acidification within their own institutional capacity. For instance, the Convention on Biological Diversity is well placed to expand monitoring and assessment as well as address issues of biological adaptation; and MARPOL, concerned with issues of ocean dumping, has taken steps to regulate iron fertilisation and other geoengineering schemes. Despite clear concern about ocean acidification these treaty bodies are unable to act further to mitigate OA due to their inability to regulate carbon dioxide emissions. Conversely, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – the treaty deemed responsible for the regulation of CO2 emissions - is seemingly hamstrung by the lack of mandate to incorporate ocean acidification into its activities. This paper concludes with an examination of the UNFCCC mandate, and finds that ocean acidification falls within its purview, and hence proposes ways to better incorporate OA across its workings.

Response of the Eastern Mediterranean planktonic ecosystem to elevated CO2 and temperature: results from a mesocosm perturbation study

E. Krasakopoulou (University of the Aegean, University Hill, 81100 Lesvos, Greece), P. Pitta (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece), C. Frangoulis (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece), L. Al-Moosawi (Plymouth Marine Laboratoty, Prospect Place, West Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, United Kingdom), A. Giannakourou (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, P.O. Box 712, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece), A. Lagaria (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece), N. Papageorgiou (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece), S. Psarra (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece), E. Souvermezoglou (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, P.O. Box 712, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece), T. Tanaka (CNRS-INSU Universite Paris6, F-06230 Villefranche Sur Mer, France), T. Tsagaraki (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece), M. Tsapakis (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece), A. Tsiola (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece), S. Zervoudaki (Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, P.O. Box 712, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece), P. Ziveri (Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain)

Abstract details
Response of the Eastern Mediterranean planktonic ecosystem to elevated CO2 and temperature: results from a mesocosm perturbation study

E. Krasakopoulou (1) ; P. Pitta (2) ; C. Frangoulis (2) ; L. Al-Moosawi (3) ; A. Giannakourou (4) ; A. Lagaria (2) ; N. Papageorgiou (5) ; S. Psarra (2) ; E. Souvermezoglou (4) ; T. Tanaka (6) ; T. Tsagaraki (2) ; M. Tsapakis (2) ; A. Tsiola (5) ; S. Zervoudaki (4) ; P. Ziveri (7)
(1) University of the Aegean, Department of Marine Sciences, University Hill, 81100 Lesvos, Greece; (2) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of oceanography, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece; (3) Plymouth Marine Laboratoty, Prospect Place, West Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, United Kingdom; (4) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of oceanography, P.O. Box 712, 19013 Anavyssos, Greece; (5) Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Institute of marine biology, biotechnology and aquaculture, PO Box 2214, 71003 Heraklion, Greece; (6) CNRS-INSU Universite Paris6, Laboratoire d’oceanographie de villefranche, F-06230 Villefranche Sur Mer, France; (7) Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra (Barcelona), Spain

Abstract content

One of the fastest global changes caused by human activity is the continuing increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in the atmosphere which have now reached over 400 ppm (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/). Rising atmospheric CO2 is causing global warming and ocean acidification which can independently affect many marine organisms in a variety of marine habitats from tropical to high-latitude ecosystems.

Both acidification and warming are expected to alter the ecology of the Mediterranean Sea, although the evidence to date is sparse. A large scale mesocosm experiment focusing on the study of the simultaneous impact of warming and acidification on the planktonic ecosystem of the Eastern Mediterranean took place from August 30th to September 14th 2013 at the mesocosm facilities of HCMR in Crete, in the framework of the EU funded MedSeA project (www.medsea-project.eu). Natural plankton assemblages were incubated in 3 m3 mesocosms to examine the impact of changes in carbonate chemistry and temperature on biogeochemical variables and processes.

Two different pCO2 levels (present day and predicted for year 2100) were applied in the mesocosms for 2 weeks and tested in two large concrete tanks with different temperatures (ambient seawater: 25°C, ambient+3°C : 28°C). Four triplicates of mesocosms were deployed simulating the conditions of: current temperature and pCO2 (served as Control; C), Ocean Acidification (ΟΑ), Warming (W) and Greenhouse (GH).

The control of temperature in the two large tanks was made by means of a heating and cooling system connected to a control unit. Temperature was successfully controlled, exhibiting a nycthemeral variation of less than ± 0.5oC of the target temperature throughout the experimental period. The ‘acidified’ conditions were achieved by additions of CO2 saturated seawater during three consecutive days at the start of the experiment and then were let to evolve due to biological activity and air/sea exchanges of CO2 till the end of the experiment.

The effect of acidification was evident in the Chla concentration (highly dominated by the pico-sized fraction) and also in the pico-eukaryote density; Chla and pico-eukaryotes increased in both acidified treatments, whereas primary production was likely more dependent on temperature than OA. Bacterial abundance and production were not or only slightly affected by OA. There was also no effect of warming (even combined with acidification) on bacterial abundance; however a slight effect of temperature on bacterial production was observed. Alkaline phosphatase activity showed higher values under warm conditions, while it remained suppressed at lower levels in the GH mesocosms. No significant differences were measured for the phosphate turnover time between treatments, while the turnover times suggest P deficiency in all treatments for the duration of the experiment. P-uptake from different size fractions also showed no notable changes between treatments and experimental days. However, there was some indication of enhanced nitrogen fixation under warming conditions. Copepod (eggs & Nauplii) production (CP) varied significantly with time during the experiment. Acidification had no clear effect on CP, whereas acidification and warming resulted in a significant decline of CP and this decrease was higher than that observed at the warming conditions only.

The overall mesocosm experiment results showed that, for CO2 conditions forecasted for the end of this century, the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern Mediterranean Sea will prove resilient to increases in the ocean acidification. However, the warming will have a more important effect than acidification; and will enhance the effect of acidification on pelagic ecosystem functioning. The results obtained will help to gain insight on the dynamics and trophic efficiency of the food web under increased CO2 levels and temperature and may allow better predictions of the overall effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functioning of marine ecosystems.

« Bridging the Gap between Ocean Acidification Impacts and Economic Valuation »

N. Hilmi (Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monte-Carlo, France), S. Reynaud (Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monte-Carlo, France), M. Marc (IAEA, Monte-Carlo, Monaco), L. Hansson (IAEA, Monte-Carlo, Monaco), P. Batra (IAEA, Monte-Carlo, Monaco), D. Osborn (IAEA, Monte-Carlo, Monaco), D. Allemand (Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Monte-Carlo, France)

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« Bridging the Gap between Ocean Acidification Impacts and Economic Valuation »

N. Hilmi (1) ; S. Reynaud (1) ; M. Marc (2) ; L. Hansson (3) ; P. Batra (3) ; D. Osborn (4) ; D. Allemand (5)
(1) Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Environmental Economics, Monte-Carlo, France; (2) IAEA, Radioecology, Monte-Carlo, Monaco; (3) IAEA, Iocc, Monte-Carlo, Monaco; (4) IAEA, Director, Monte-Carlo, Monaco; (5) Centre Scientifique de Monaco, Director, Monte-Carlo, France

Abstract content

Ocean acidification, is a growing environmental concern. The chemistry and therefore biology of world oceans will be impacted to varying degrees depending on region and type of ecosystem. Ocean acidification, through impacts on marine organisms and ecosystems, has the potential to seriously impact coastal communities and their economies. Communities ranging from mega-cities to subsistence fishing villages differ significantly in population, maritime activity, reliance on marine natural resources and therefore their respective adaptability. Identifying the magnitude and types of impacts ocean acidification will have on communities will become a concern of governments of coastal countries seeking to maintain current marine activities and benefits.

 

In 2008, the Monaco Declaration (requested by HSH Prince Albert II) advocated for the development of links between economists and scientists in order to better evaluate the socioeconomic impacts of ocean acidification. In line with the Monaco Declaration and in accordance with the wishes of Prince Albert II, an International workshop series - « Bridging the Gap between Ocean Acidification Impacts and Economic Valuation » - was launched by the ‘Centre Scientifique de Monaco’ and the Environment Laboratories of the IAEA. Three workshops have been organized since 2010 all gathering multidisciplinary international experts, to work on providing recommendations and an appropriate methodology for considering different policy or management options. These workshops resulted in clear conclusions and recommendations for policy makers.

 

The first workshop (2010) focused on the impacts of ocean acidification on the global economy. For the first time, economists and scientists came together to open the lines of communication and foster cooperation and coordination. The second workshop (2012) focused on impacts of ocean acidification on fisheries and aquaculture in different regions of the world. Social and economic impacts of ocean acidification on livelihoods, commerce and food security were discussed. What are the socio-economic impacts of ocean acidification on coastal communities? The third workshop (2015) discussed impacts on major coastal fisheries and tourism activities, and considered ways to model the cascade of potential impacts of ocean acidification on human activities. The workshop also discussed potential adaptation and capacity-building options and policy responses available to these various sectors and governments. Each of the workshops provided a set of specific recommendations for policy makers on possible mitigation and adaptation measures, and research priorities.

Ocean Acidification: Global Issue, Local Effects

J. Newton (University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States of America), L. Jewett (NOAA , Washington DC, United States of America), P. Williamson (University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom), Z. Willis (US IOOS, Washington DC, United States of America), T. Klinger, (University of Washington, Seattle, United States of America), R. Feely, (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, 98115, United States of America), N. Bednarsek (University of Washington, Seattle, United States of America)

Abstract details
Ocean Acidification: Global Issue, Local Effects

J. Newton (1) ; L. Jewett (2) ; P. Williamson (3) ; Z. Willis (4) ; T. Klinger, (5) ; R. Feely, (6) ; N. Bednarsek (7)
(1) University of Washington, Applied Physics Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States of America; (2) NOAA , Washington DC, United States of America; (3) University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom; (4) US IOOS, Washington DC, United States of America; (5) University of Washington, School of marine and environmental affairs, Seattle, United States of America; (6) Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Noaa, Seattle, WA, 98115, United States of America; (7) University of Washington, School of Marine Affairs, Seattle, United States of America

Abstract content

Ocean acidification is a global problem already impacting our coasts and oceans at scales that span from individual species to ecosystems to indigenous communities to human industry such as aquaculture. Efforts are underway at several scales to observe ocean acidification and its effects on biological organisms. In this talk we present the Global Ocean Acidification Observing Network (GOA-ON), as well as how national, regional and local networks can integrate within GOA-ON. The major characteristics of GOA-ON will be presented, including how this international network is interoperable with observing networks on smaller scales. As an example, we present data from the Pacific Northwest United States and observed impacts on shellfish growth and pteropods. Programs from the states of Washington and Oregon and from the United States are being synergized to afford better observing and communication of these data in near real-time. This effort seeks to optimize interoperability and sharing of data. These contributions nest within GOA-ON and help to define our global status based on the mosaic of local views.

Islets of New-Caledonia lagoons in the perspective of Climate change and sea level rise

M. Garcin (BRGM, Orléans, France), M. Vendé-Leclerc (DIMENC, Nouméa, New Caledonia), B. Robineau (DIMENC, Nouméa, New Caledonia), P. Maurizot (DIMENC, Nouméa, New Caledonia), G. Le Cozannet (BRGM / CNRS, Orleans, France), A. Nicolae-Lerma (BRGM, Orléans, France)

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Islets of New-Caledonia lagoons in the perspective of Climate change and sea level rise

M. Garcin (1) ; M. Vendé-Leclerc (2) ; B. Robineau (2) ; P. Maurizot (2) ; G. Le Cozannet (3) ; A. Nicolae-Lerma (1)
(1) BRGM, DRP/R3C, Orléans, France; (2) DIMENC, Sgnc, Nouméa, New Caledonia; (3) BRGM / CNRS, BRGM-DRP-R3C / CNRS-LGP (UMR-8591), Orleans, France

Abstract content

Context and problematic:  On July 7th 2008, UNESCO included parts of Lagoons of New Caledonia in the list of the Reef Diversity and Associated Ecosystems.  Sandy islets from New Caledonian lagoons lie on lagoonal reef platforms or on the reef barrier.They have a major role in these specific and rich ecosystems, being the seat of nesting for turtles, seabirds, sea kraits etc. In addition, islets have a high importance in the Caledonian culture and way of life; economy of the islands has been developed around tourism and services with specific activities such as sports and relaxation. One of the recurrent issues for people and governmental agencies concerns the islets's future in the perspective of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise. In this context, the Coastal Observatory of New Caledonia (OBLIC) has initiated research about the recent and present evolution of islets in order to predict their “behavior”.

Method: Around twenty islets from the southwestern and eastern lagoons of Grande-Terre (New Caledonia main island) and one from Nokanhui atoll (Ile des Pins) have been studied. Such studies integrate field work and observations (erosion scars, accretion area, sedimentology, etc.) and analysis of historical photographs and satellites images. Geomorphological and sedimentological data have been collected during 2013 and 2014 field surveys. Past extensions of each islet have been interpreted using available aerial views and satellite sensing. Old aerial photographs are rather rare because islets being sometimes quite away from the shore, they were not covered by aerial survey of the main island. All available data have been integrated in a GIS. Thus, islets’s reconstitution extends from one decade to 70 years. Time evolutions of shape and surface of each islet have been mapped in order to compute surface changes and the present percentage of coast's lengths in erosion, in accretion or stable. Moreover, the forcing factors such as winds, wave, tropical storms or cyclone, and the ENSO have been analyzed, in order to understand potential links with the islet behavior.

Results: In terms of size and shape, a high diversity and a variety of evolution trends of islets during the past decades can be noticed. Actually, processes affecting the coast of each islet (erosion, accretion, stability) are highly variable. All islets have at least 50% of their coasts affected by erosion and for four this rate is close to 100%. Islets showing increasing surface during the past years are very rare. Analysis and observations show that five main stages constitute the life-cycle of Caledonian islets, namely: nucleation, growing, maturity, decay, relic or endangered. Changes of environmental parameters and forcing factors as well as the inherited geomorphology lead the islets from one stage to another. The becoming of each islet is linked to its past evolution, its present state and future evolution of environmental parameters.  Parameters are linked to the climate variability like ENSO or IPO which control the intensity and direction of trade winds and the average sea level in the SW Pacific. Forcing factors include also extreme events like cyclones, storms and austral swells which can trigger at very short term powerful erosion or accretion with high impact on the islet. Sea level rise induced by the anthropogenic climate change has also to be taken into account. Using our data and informations and postulating that the current situation remains identical, we consider that : 19% of the islets are in a critical state with a very likely disappearance in the next future (few years); 10% of the islets are in a critical situation with a likely disappearance in the next future and very likely disappearance in the middle term (next decades); 19% of the islets show a rapid evolution which can lead to their disappearance in the middle term but not in the next future; 10% of the islets are not endangered at short and middle time scale  and  43% of the islets are not endangered at all (stable or accreting, large surface, relatively high altitude).  Our results show that situations are contrasted from one islet to another. We have also to emphasize that uncertainties are higher for middle and long term future due to uncertainties about the sea level. Uncertainties are also linked to the potential reaching of a thresholds value (value and rates) which would lead to a modification of the resilience capacity of each islet. Thus, a coastal observatory will be of first importance in monitoring the impact of climate change and sea level rise on such systems.

Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics

D. Idier (BRGM, Orléans, France), F. Paris (BRGM, Orléans, France), G. Le Cozannet (BRGM / CNRS, Orleans, France), F. Boulahya (BRGM, Orléans, France)

Abstract details
Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics

D. Idier (1) ; F. Paris (1) ; G. Le Cozannet (2) ; F. Boulahya (1)
(1) BRGM, Orléans, France; (2) BRGM / CNRS, BRGM-DRP-R3C / CNRS-LGP (UMR-8591), Orleans, France

Abstract content

Sea-level rise (SLR) affects not only the total water level, but can also modify the tidal dynamics. Several studies investigated the SLR effect on the tide of the Western European continental shelf, analysing the tidal dynamics (mainly the M2 component) for various SLR scenarios or coastal defence schemes.

The present study aims at completing existing knowledge, using a modelling based approach, investigating 11 uniform SLR scenarios from -0.25 to +10m, and analysing the effect on high/low tide water level as well as the amplitude and phase tidal components. Sea-level rise scenarios  include the present sea-level, as well as several idealized scenarios that correspond to plausible sea-levels for more or less distant past or future. On the one hand, the -0.25m scenario can be considered as a low bound for the preindustrial sea-level. On the other hand, positive SLR scenarios correspond to more or less plausible sea-levels in the future: according to IPCC, a rise of sea-level of +25cm is likely by 2046-2065 whatever the climate change scenario, and the likely range for high emissions scenarios reaches 0.5 to 1m by 2100. While higher SLR scenarios are not excluded by 2100, sea-level will continue to rise beyond 2100, and it is likely to reach values of several meters by 2200 and beyond. Finally, the +10m SLR scenario corresponds to a situation where most Greenland and west-Antarctic ice-sheets have melted.

Assuming that coastal defences along the present day shoreline are maintained and upgraded, the patterns of increase / decrease of high tide level (annual maximum water level) are almost stationary in most of the area (70%), with an increase in most of the domain and a decrease mainly in the Western English Channel. These changes are globally varying linearly with the SLR, till the +2m SLR scenario, with rate ranging between -15% and +15% of SLR. The main patterns are: (1) a decrease in the Western English Channel, (2) an increase in the Irish Sea, Southern North Sea and German Bight. The analysis of tidal component contributions shows that high tide level changes patterns are not exactly similar to M2 pattern changes (e.g. along the French Atlantic coast, high tide level increases whereas M2 amplitude decreases). This highlights the need to take into account all the components when analysing SLR effect on the tide. The main changes in the maximum water level result from the changes of the M2, S2, N2, M4 and MS4 components. Sea-level rise pushes several areas (e.g. Atlantic coast, Irish Sea) closer to resonance, leading to the increase of the resonant tidal components (especially semi-diurnal or quart-diurnal, depending on the area).

The linear behaviour of tide dynamics with the SLR is highly sensitive to the coastal defence strategy (i.e. let flood or not), the high tide level varying much less linearly with SLR when flooding is allowed, like for instance in the German Bight. However, several areas appear not sensitive to this choice, such that the estimated trends there are highly probable: an increase of ~6% SLR (resp. decrease of ~15% SLR) in the North of Irish Sea (resp. in the Western English Channel).

Finally, preliminary investigations show that, at least, for the non-uniform SLR scenario we computed, the high water level is very weakly sensitive to the (non)-uniformity, local rates of increase/decrease (relative to local SLR) being similar to the ones obtained from uniform SLR scenarios.

Impact of climate change on estuarine ecogeomorphology, and application to the Loire estuary

P. Le Hir (IFREMER, PLOUZANE, France), R. Walther (ARTELIA, Grenoble, France), F. Cayocca (IFREMER, PLOUZANE, France), J. Sawtschuk (Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest, France), F. Bioret (Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Brest, France), P. Bona (GIP Loire Estuaire, Nantes, France)

Abstract details
Impact of climate change on estuarine ecogeomorphology, and application to the Loire estuary

P. Le Hir (1) ; R. Walther (2) ; F. Cayocca (1) ; J. Sawtschuk (3) ; F. Bioret (3) ; P. Bona (4)
(1) IFREMER, Dynamiques de l'Environnement Côtier (ODE/DYNECO), PLOUZANE, France; (2) ARTELIA, Grenoble, France; (3) Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Institut de géoarchitecture, Brest, France; (4) GIP Loire Estuaire, Nantes, France

Abstract content

Besides temperature increase, the main expressions of climate change in estuarine environments are sea level rise and possible change in storm regimes downstream, variations of river flow and solid fluxes upstream. For instance, in northern Europe, lengthening of the low river discharge duration is often predicted, leading to salinity intrusion and upwards shift of turbidity maximum in estuaries, with possible effects on water quality.

Previous modelling work on the Loire and the Seine estuaries (France) suggested that sea level rise (SLR) would only induce a moderate upstream shift of saline waters and turbidity maximum. These computations assumed no morphological coupling. However, expected changes in erosion/deposition patterns due to modified forcing conditions are likely to modify the estuarine morphology. These morphological processes have the same time scale as climate change, so that SLR consequences are likely to depend on the rate of climate change. Supported by the French Ministry of Environment (project GICC/C3E2), the present study aims to answer these questions, with a focus on the impact on tidal marshes frequently located on estuarine banks. Because these areas have the same elevation as spring tide high water, they are occasionally flooded and even a slight SLR is likely to dramatically alter their inundation frequency. A main question is to know whether the marsh elevation is likely to increase at the same rate as the sea level, or flooding will become more frequent.

Two models have been developed to address these questions. A first one accounts for morphological coupling and deals with schematized and simplified morphologies. The study aims at classifying the estuarine systems response to climate change according to various types of hydrodynamic forcing (tidal amplitude, river flow), bed sediment nature and sediment inputs, and morphological configurations. The model is fully process-based, with a sediment module that accounts for sand and mud behaviour. Long term simulations (typically 100-200 years) are achieved thanks to the use of a morphological factor.

A second model is a similar process-based model with muddy mobile sediment, applied to the Loire estuary. The computation grid is refined in intertidal areas, allowing accurate simulation of specific hydrodynamics in a realistic and complex network of creeks and vegetated areas. This model is used to predict sediment deposition on lateral marshes, and its variation according to the location of the turbidity maximum which is related to the river flow. The model has been validated against field measurements, in terms of inundation heights, flow structure and intensity, suspended sediment concentration and sedimentation rate.

Tests on schematic geometries show that (1) SLR  increases the  tidal oscillating volume and consequently the hydraulic energy within the estuary, which results in channel widening or the development of creeks in elevated marshes; and (2) a strong dependence on the upstream sediment  input : high sediment fluxes increase the sedimentation on the intertidal flats, while these flats are likely to be eroded in case of sediment deficit.

In cases of reasonable sediment input, a 1 cm/year SLR is never compensated by sedimentation, and flooding rate increases. When the SLR stops, lateral sedimentation is likely to continue, inducing a following reduction in the inundation rate. All these features are strongly dependent on the initial configuration, in particular the cross profile of the alluvial plain which allows or not any lateral extension of the flood. Surprisingly, vegetation on marshes does not seem to impact these processes much.

Simulations on the Loire estuary were run for the coming 30 years, and based on a 34cm SLR and longer low river regime duration, as predicted by hydrological regional models (project ICC Hydroqual).  Results show that the turbidity maximum would slightly increase (despite a reduction of upstream sediment input) and would shift 5 km upstream, like salinity intrusion. Only a small fraction (5-10%) of the mobile sediment stock would supply lateral sedimentation, not enough to compensate SLR. Based on recent observations and comparison with 30 years old data, the potential effect on vegetation was assessed : upstream shift of halophytes and development of helophytes on marshes.

Urban Landscape Remodeling for Climate Resilient Neighborhoods in Coastal Mega-cities of India Using Integral Geographic Information System: A Participatory Urban Climate Change Risk Reduction Framework for Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

A. Tiwari (National Institute Of Technology, NITB, India)

Abstract details
Urban Landscape Remodeling for Climate Resilient Neighborhoods in Coastal Mega-cities of India Using Integral Geographic Information System: A Participatory Urban Climate Change Risk Reduction Framework for Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

A. Tiwari (1)
(1) National Institute Of Technology, NITB, India

Abstract content

Indian coastal metropolitans represent the most densely populated and highly congested urban areas and rank among some the largest urban settlements of the planet in terms of population. However these mega-cities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of civic amenities and constraints of access undermining carrying capacity and resilience of urban ecosystems. Climate change has increased vulnerability of large population, particularly poor and marginalized, living in rapidly growing coastal mega-cities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly high intensity rainfall, floods and cyclone. Moreover, long-term impact of climate change is expected to result in uncertainty pertaining to energy consumption, and thereby reducing efficiency of urban energy systems and pushing carbon footprint further. Furthermore, temperature extremes are likely to adversely affect the accessibility to green and open spaces, and community services, particularly water, sanitation, health, public transport, markets and community centers  posing  serious threat to live-ability and resilient lifestyles. These changes are offsetting the interconnected network of urban infrastructure and services in sprawling coastal cities. Study aims at evolving participatory climate resilient urban neighborhoods  through  urban-surface ‘remodeling’ approach in ‘Integral Geographic Information System'  (GIS) environment for coastal megacities with the illustration of Mumbai.

 

The paper uses terrain analysis tools in integral geographical information system platform to identify and map the climate susceptible urban fabric and check its scope for urban landscape remodeling without adding to its (often) complex fragmentation. Harmonizing with people's perception and adaptation knowledge, and incorporating options and priorities of city administration and other stakeholders, the urban surface remodeling through integral GIS ensures inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. The application of integral GIS resolves conflicting perspectives, interests, and approaches of the multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in climate smart urban planning. It ensures barrier-free climate communication process for decision making while looking for long term feasible outcome of remodeled surfaces. Surfaces available for remodeling include paved ground, streetscapes, commercial facades, rooftops, open areas, public spaces as well as dark corners (such as under flyovers). Remodeling alters certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with blue and green infrastructure measures that collectively involve ecosystem services for greater hydrological connection. The method fairly reduces exposure of vulnerable surface and minimizes risk to achieve an extremity-neutral state, forming the key to urban resilience.

 

The outcomes of this paper included measures for prevention of choking of drainage system during high intensity rainfall, therefore minimizing the risk from extreme weather events. Remodeling looked for efficient heat transfer without contribution to urban heat island during upper extremes of temperature. The blue and green infrastructure measures enhanced natural services namely: temperature regulation and maintenance of humidity, which are otherwise lost during climate-extremes, through cooling via evapo-transpiration. Experience gained through study is likely to help individuals, stakeholders, and organizations involved in the process of urban climate change adaptation governance in coastal megacities all across the developing countries.

Vulnerability of Coastal Crop Land to Climate Change in the Northern Part of Bay of Bengal: Issues, Challenges and Future Prospects

M. H. Nesarul (University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladesh), A. H. M. Kamal (Universiti Putra Malaysia Bintulu Sarawak Campus, Bintulu, Sarawak, Malaysia)

Abstract details
Vulnerability of Coastal Crop Land to Climate Change in the Northern Part of Bay of Bengal: Issues, Challenges and Future Prospects

MH. Nesarul (1) ; AHM. Kamal (2)
(1) University of Chittagong, Institute of marine sciences and fisheries, Chittagong, Bangladesh; (2) Universiti Putra Malaysia Bintulu Sarawak Campus, Animal Science and Fishery, Bintulu, Sarawak, Malaysia

Abstract content

The coastal communities of northeastern part of Bay of Bengal are used to live and survive through facing different types of natural disasters since primitive time. Among the natural disasters, salinity intrusion due to climate change and sea level rise in the coastal agriculture land is the major unpleasant incident now days. Because of that wide area of the coastal agricultural land, coastal forest, drinking water facilities and fresh water availability are in critical condition which may cause 40 million people of 147 coastal districts covering 47201 km area are placed in danger. The nation wide assessment on the detected of coastal soil and water salinity is not conducted since 9 years. The survey on the coastal soil salinity on 1973 and 2000 found that the saline effected land is increased from 0.83 million ha to 1.20 million ha within 27 years. It is assumed that at present the rate of salinity intrusion in the coastal agriculture land will be higher than those of 1973 and 2000. The soil salinity was recorded 18-20 ppt after AILA in the south-eastern coast of Bangladesh and increased further 2-4 ppt due to low precipitation which causes crop burning. This paper aims to know the salinity intrusion in the coastal soil and water of Bangladesh, which would help to plan and improvement of the sustainable agriculture production. Study revealed that to face any extra stresses on the coastal agriculture land due to climate change requires extensive inventory, awareness activities, mitigation measures, adaptation techniques and extension of indigenous technology.

Short- and long-term impacts on coastal power plants under sea level rise

R. Bierkandt (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), B. Marzeion, (University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria), M. Auffhammer (University of California, Berkeley CA, United States of America), A. Levermann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Short- and long-term impacts on coastal power plants under sea level rise

R. Bierkandt (1) ; B. Marzeion, (2) ; M. Auffhammer (3) ; A. Levermann (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Research domain sustainable solutions, Potsdam, Germany; (2) University of Innsbruck, Institute for geophysics and meteorology, Innsbruck, Austria; (3) University of California, Berkeley CA, United States of America

Abstract content

Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by up to 1m during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. Assuming, that existing power plants are protected against a 100-year flood risk, we compute the additional risk of flooding by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additionally exposed capacity varies strongly between states. For Delaware it is 80% of the currently generated power. For New York this number becomes 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today’s status increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: Currently operating power plants are less exposed than those who have been retired or canceled and currently planned plants will be less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise appears to be possible.

A complete melting of the Antarctic ice-sheets leads to a long-term sea-level rise by up to 65 meters over a time period of several thousand years depending on the amount of carbon emissions within the next decades to centuries. Decommissioned nuclear reactors that will be entombed but not dismantled may represent a long-term risk under sea-level rise. Since potential unstable socio-economic situations or other circumstances may prevent premediated dismantling intentions, it is necessary to know which sites will be affected by future sea-level rise. We computed the available dismantling-time for all nuclear reactors in the world. Operating, planned and nuclear units under permanent shutdown were considered. Our results show that, for example, for a 5120 Gt CO2 emission scenario more than 50% of all nuclear reactors in the world are exposed to sea-level rise within the next 5000 years. Of those exposed, 90% already within the next 2000 years.

Coastal erosion and Shoreline Changes assessment in different climatic periods in Kalpitiya Peninsula, Sri Lanka

R. U. Piyadasa (University of Colombo Sri Lanka, Colombo, Sri Lanka), M. A. Samanmali (Colombo University, Colombo, Sri Lanka), W. Deepthi (Colombo University, Colombo, Sri Lanka)

Abstract details
Coastal erosion and Shoreline Changes assessment in different climatic periods in Kalpitiya Peninsula, Sri Lanka

RU. Piyadasa (1) ; MA. Samanmali (2) ; W. Deepthi (3)
(1) University of Colombo Sri Lanka, Geography Department, Colombo, Sri Lanka; (2) Colombo University, Department of geography, Colombo, Sri Lanka; (3) Colombo University, Zoology department, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Abstract content

Sri Lanka is an island located in Indian Ocean with a total coastline of length approximately 1600km. Western part of Sri Lankan coastal zones are facing shoreline retreat problems, losing territory due to monsoon wind  sea actions, negative sediment transport balances and climate change phenomena. To deal with this problem, efficient tools are necessary to help decision-makers choose the right procedures to follow. These tools should assess, estimate and project scenarios of coastal evolution in a medium-to-long-term perspective. To perform reliable projections, as many variables as possible should be analyzed, and the impact of each of these variables on the shoreline evolution should be understood. The study has been conducted to evaluate and identify the Shoreline changes during the past 15 years in Kalpitiya peninsula.  Both Remote Sensing and Image processing techniques were used to extract Shoreline. Shoreline vector data method was used in Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) of ArcGIS10.1 to estimate the change in shoreline (positive or negative). R 2.14.0 was used to calculate relationship between time and sand deposition/erosion in Kalipitya Peninsula. In this ongoing study, temporally shoreline changes of Kalpitiya peninsula to be investigate on ArcGIS 10.1 with DSAS tool. It was find out maximum and minimum Shoreline Change rete as well as Shoreline erosion rete in Kalpitiya Area. The Multiple R-squared of time and Shoreline change distance was recorded positive relationship such as 0.97, at the confidence level of 0.05. These results shows North Western part coast area in Sri Lanka. The study defined a methodology for classification of risk areas in Kalpitiya coast, considering the uncertainty associated with erosion and wave climate sequences. The study help to identify and prepare different risk maps according to considered climate change effects were obtained, defining areas of high, medium and low risk of territory loss due to erosion.

Control of mangrove abundance by decadal changes in oceanic wave fields

R. Walcker (Université Paul Sabatier - CNRS, Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
Control of mangrove abundance by decadal changes in oceanic wave fields

R. Walcker (1)
(1) Université Paul Sabatier - CNRS, Umr 5245 ecolab, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

The ocean surface is crossed by fields of wind-generated waves. These can travel over basin-wide distances and drive a large portion of coastal sediment transport when they reach continent margins. The variability of wave fields is thus of crucial importance to understand observed natural changes of coastal areas such as tidal wetlands. However, to date, no studies have tackled this issue at regional scale and over the course of several decades. Here, we provide a 64–year analysis of coastal changes on the open-coast mangrove shoreline situated downdrift of the mouth of the Amazon River. We show that over 1950–2014, changes in North tropical Atlantic wave heights have primarily affected sediment dynamics leading to important natural variations observed in mangrove surface area. We show that mangroves mostly respond to low frequency fluctuations of wave fields mainly associated with the decadal variability of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation. Our results emphasize the need for a better understanding and quantification of the role of natural climate variability on coastal dynamics. This can be crucial in anticipating the near future evolution of tidal wetlands and their Carbon stock in the context of anthropogenically climate change.

Climate change impacts on mangrove ecosystem

F. Fromard (University of Toulouse-CNRS, Toulouse, France), A. Gardel (CNRS, Cayenne, France), C. Proisy (IRD, Montpellier, France), E. Anthony (University, Aix-en-Provence, France)

Abstract details
Climate change impacts on mangrove ecosystem

F. Fromard (1) ; A. Gardel (2) ; C. Proisy (3) ; E. Anthony (4)
(1) University of Toulouse-CNRS, Laboratory of functional ecology and environment (ecolab), Toulouse, France; (2) CNRS, Cayenne, France; (3) IRD, Amap, Montpellier, France; (4) University, Cerege, Aix-en-Provence, France

Abstract content

Mangrove forests are a major ecosystem of tropical coasts that support a wide range of ecosystem services, including protection against coastal erosion, a significant carbon storage capacity, nursery sites for marine species, and retention of terrigenous pollutants. Over the last few decade, mangroves have, however, been significantly decimated by direct human activities with the development of shrimp farming, urban expansion and agricultural practices.

 

Mangroves are also particularly sensitive to climate change, with different impacts on ecosystem structuring, functioning and dynamics. Sea level rise could promote landward mangrove migration, while high levels of atmospheric CO2 could enhance mangrove tree growth. A lower frequency of extreme low temperatures should facilitate a poleward expansion of mangroves, whereas extreme events such as cyclones and tsunamis should lead to mangrove retreat or demise. These processes are recognized variably worldwide. In particular, climate change impacts associated with direct, growing anthropogenic disturbances should drastically alter mangrove ecosystem services.

 

In this presentation, specific impacts and adaptive strategies of mangroves in the face of climate change will be addressed, with a specific emphasis on the mangroves of the French tropical overseas territories, and in the framework of the CNRS/IRD’s 2015 Year of the Mangrove initiative.

The Effect of Climate Change on Cocoa Production in Ekiti and Ondo States of Nigeria: A Co-Integration Analysis

O. Thompson (The Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria, Akure, Ondo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
The Effect of Climate Change on Cocoa Production in Ekiti and Ondo States of Nigeria: A Co-Integration Analysis

O. Thompson (1)
(1) The Federal University of Technology, Akure, Ondo State, Nigeria, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Akure, Ondo, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

The study examined whether or not there is short run and long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and climate change variables (i.e. Rainfall, Temperature and Humidity). This is to ascertain the effect of climate change on cocoa output both in the short run and long run in the study area. The short run was considered to be within the period of 1971-1990 and 1990-2010, while the long run was considered to be within the period of 1971-2010. It was established at the long run that cocoa output and rainfall were non-stationary among the three selected climate change determinants (i.e. Rainfall, Humidity and Temperature.). In the long run, both at 1% and 5% level of significance, their absolute values were greater than the critical values (i.e. for cocoa;-2.855384>-3.610453 & -2.938987 and for rainfall; -1.591781>-3.610453 &-2.938987). Also, the co-integration test was carried out in the long run; the trace statistic test revealed that at both 1% and 5% level of significance 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated. The Max-Eigen values also revealed that at both 1% and 5% levels of significance, that at most 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated, since their absolute values  25.27>15.41 and 20.04; 20.61>14.07 and 18.63,. This corroborated the trace statistics, therefore, it was concluded that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and rainfall. The results established the fact that cocoa is highly susceptible to drought and the pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall distribution in the study area. Therefore, the study recommended that drought management policy through information systems about changing climate conditions and patterns, preparatory practices and options to deal with eventuality of drought must be set in place.The study examined whether or not there is short run and long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and climate change variables (i.e. Rainfall, Temperature and Humidity). This is to ascertain the effect of climate change on cocoa output both in the short run and long run in the study area. The short run was considered to be within the period of 1971-1990 and 1990-2010, while the long run was considered to be within the period of 1971-2010. It was established at the long run that cocoa output and rainfall were non-stationary among the three selected climate change determinants (i.e. Rainfall, Humidity and Temperature.). In the long run, both at 1% and 5% level of significance, their absolute values were greater than the critical values (i.e. for cocoa;-2.855384>-3.610453 & -2.938987 and for rainfall; -1.591781>-3.610453 &-2.938987). Also, the co-integration test was carried out in the long run; the trace statistic test revealed that at both 1% and 5% level of significance 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated. The Max-Eigen values also revealed that at both 1% and 5% levels of significance, that at most 2 and 1 equations were co-integrated, since their absolute values  25.27>15.41 and 20.04; 20.61>14.07 and 18.63,. This corroborated the trace statistics, therefore, it was concluded that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between cocoa output and rainfall. The results established the fact that cocoa is highly susceptible to drought and the pattern of cropping of cocoa is related to rainfall distribution in the study area. Therefore, the study recommended that drought management policy through information systems about changing climate conditions and patterns, preparatory practices and options to deal with eventuality of drought must be set in place.

Water Quality Index for the Evaluation of Irrigation Water Quality and its Impact on Climate using MODIS Sensors' Based MOD13A1-NDVI Data

K. Swati (Banasthali University, Tonk, India), P. Kumar, (Banasthali University, jaipur, India)

Abstract details
Water Quality Index for the Evaluation of Irrigation Water Quality and its Impact on Climate using MODIS Sensors' Based MOD13A1-NDVI Data

K. Swati (1) ; P. Kumar, (2)
(1) Banasthali University, Remote Sensing, Tonk, India; (2) Banasthali University, Remote sensing, jaipur, India

Abstract content

Ground water quality has reflective outcome on crop yield potential in semi-arid zones. Water can be poor quality due to salinity it contains as impurities present. Excessive salinity of irrigation water leads to interdiction of crop growth while smaller concentration of salt abates the water infiltration process. Water quality index has an ultimate goal for obtaining maximum production per unit of available water supply along with significance for remedy of domestic, industrial and irrigation water supply. Natural water body’s response environmental conditions which have been studied by scientists for identify sources and fates of contaminates. Water Quality Information Center provides electronic access to information on water quality and agriculture. The most important water quality directive on crop yield efficiency is the water salinity hazard as measured by electrical conductivity (ECw). The high ECw generally leads to physiological drought. The higher the EC, the less water is available to plants, even though the soil may appear wet. Geospatial technology plays a vital role in geospatial data acquisition of the water quality index at local, regional, and global scale. The advantage of Remote Sensing and GIS is that it helps in getting wide area observation, periodical and continuous measurement, and availability of digital data for processing standardization. This research paper focuses to assess the water quality for irrigation practices. The data of MOD13A1-NDVI (A Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer derived 16 day composite normalized difference vegetation index product, with spatial resolution of 500 m). (September, 2013) was used in GIS frame. Geospatial technology helps in getting spatial distribution of chemical parameters using inverse-distance weighted and modified Shepard’s method for spatial interpolation. This research paper illustrate statistical multiplication of water quality in terms of suitability index using pH, total dissolve solid, total hardness, alkalinity, sodium, chloride, nitrate, electric conductivity, and express the impact of water quality on regional crop yield. Higher water quality index depicts the best appropriateness for irrigation practices. In order to strengthen the crop productivity, we have suggested the diversified triple-based cropping systems with satellite mounted sensor derived NDVI products shown in Figure 1 as a holistic and feasible monitoring approach.

Carbon Sink in the Timbered Biomass for Mountainous Tropical Wildlife Reserve using Geospatial Approach

K. Amit (Haryana Institute of Public Adminstration, gurgaon, India), T. Vandana (Haryana Institute of Public Administration, Gurgaon, India)

Abstract details
Carbon Sink in the Timbered Biomass for Mountainous Tropical Wildlife Reserve using Geospatial Approach

K. Amit (1) ; T. Vandana (2)
(1) Haryana Institute of Public Adminstration, remote sensing, gurgaon, India; (2) Haryana Institute of Public Administration, Remote sensing, Gurgaon, India

Abstract content

Carbon storage and biomass sequestration are the two important terms that come across when it is talked about our forest or plant ecosystem. It has been found that very little research had been conducted on the potential of carbon storage in trees of the region having low rainfall. Here Remote Sensing can play a vital and useful role by its vast usage in ecological application as it is quick, accurate, cost-effective as well as a time effective method for vegetation cover mapping and modeling.  In this study the objective was to quantify the above ground biomass accumulation and carbon storages in the various species found in Ranthambore Tiger Reserve. For this purpose the satellite data of LISS III (2014) is used giving precise information of vegetation through reflectance value. For assessing the carbon sequestration potential of plantations, individual above ground biomass models were developed and scaled to stand level. Thereafter the carbon content of the different layer of soil was assessed in sample plots. The result shows that the total amount of carbon stored in by Anogeissus pendula is higher than that stored by the other three forest type. The result also showed that the carbon storage is higher in thorn as compared to the deciduous trees in the region of low rainfall.

Space-time distribution of China's water resources under the global climate change

H. Xia (East China Normal University, shanghai, China)

Abstract details
Space-time distribution of China's water resources under the global climate change

H. Xia (1)
(1) East China Normal University, School of geographic sciences, shanghai, China

Abstract content

The water resource is the basic proposition of agricultural and industrial development in China because of our big population. It is noteworthy that what climate change will effect on Chinese future water resource. The influence of climate change includes precipitation and evaporation, of which the former is more discussed and the latter is readily ignored. This article is based on the regional climate model (RegCM4) which is developed by NCAR/PSU( National Center of Aatmospheric Research/University of Pennsylvania). We made a simulation to estimate the future climate change in China with A1B scenario. And got the spatial distribution characteristics of temperature and precipitation in historical period (1981-2000 average annual value) and future period(2041-2060 average annual value). The P-M evapotranspiration model recommended by the FAO is used to calculate the evaporation. And the moist degree is used as the index of water resources. In general, the results showed that water resources in China present latitude zonal distribution, gradually reduce form south to north. From the trend of the change, the water resources in the south of Yangtze river will decrease in the future, on the other hand, in the north of Yangtze river , especially in the north of the Huai-he river , the water resources condition will get better. The most obvious regions for the growth of water resources include the western of northeast China ,Huai-he river basin, Si-chuan province and the south of Tibetan autonomous region.

The 2°C global warming threshold and associated hydrological changes over France

G. Dayon (URA1875, Cerfacs/CNRS, TOULOUSE, France), J. Boé (URA1875, Cerfacs/CNRS, TOULOUSE, France), E. Martin (Météo France, Toulouse, France)

Abstract details
The 2°C global warming threshold and associated hydrological changes over France

G. Dayon (1) ; J. Boé (1) ; E. Martin (2)
(1) URA1875, Cerfacs/CNRS, TOULOUSE, France; (2) Météo France, Cnrm-game, Toulouse, France

Abstract content

The Copenhagen Agreement states that the global temperature should increase less than 2°C to prevent dangerous changes on the climate system. The 2°C threshold offer to climate scientists an easy way to communicate and present their results close to policy decisions and meaningful for the public. However, it hides strong differences and uncertainties at a regional scale. This study focuses on impacts of the 2°C level and above on the continental hydrological cycle over France.

 

An ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) is downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). Atmospheric variables obtained on a 8 km grid over France are used to drive the Isba-Modcou hydrological system developed at Météo France and Mines Paris-Tech. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and surface water budgets. Modcou is a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba and computes aquifers and river flow evolution.

 

Future impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle of the main French rivers basins are evaluated as a function of global temperature warming. The respective importance of uncertainties from the internal climate variability and climate models is adressed thanks to large ensemble of simulations used in the study. Hydrological changes are also compared among the Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP, mainly RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to ensure the independence of results to emission scenarios.

 

Finally, based on a large ensemble of simulations on the historical period (28) and long-term river flow observations, future hydrological changes are put into perspective with past hydrological variability. Those elements will might allow to reach a conclusion on the meaning of the 2°C global warming threshold for hydrological changes over France.

 

References :

Dayon et al. (2015), Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method for precipitation in France, Journal of Geophysical Research : Atmosphere.

Seepage Processes in Permafrost near a Hydro Unit in a Changing Climate

S. Milanovskiy (Institute of Physics of the Earth, Moscow, Russia), S. Velikin (Vilyui Permafrost Station of the Permafrost Institute , Chernishevski, Russia)

Abstract details
Seepage Processes in Permafrost near a Hydro Unit in a Changing Climate

S. Milanovskiy (1) ; S. Velikin (2)
(1) Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia; (2) Vilyui Permafrost Station of the Permafrost Institute , Ras siberian branch, Chernishevski, Russia

Abstract content

Regular water and energy supply in permafrost areas are vitally important conditions for inhabitants of the large North territories of Russia, Canada, US and Alpine areas of China. Dam and flank shore stability is the key point for safety of reservoir (power pool, water supply, tailing pit, etc.). In permafrost areas stability of many engineering structures, including hydraulic work, associated with thawing - freezing process. Emergency situation of the unit we have when seepage occurs in originated permeable talik zone adjoining to reservoir. We present original results of long-term geophysical study on hydro technical objects of Western Yakutia analyzing problems associated with use of geophysical methods for the study of rocks in permafrost area. The primal problems of studies were focused to I) eliciting and checking of a position of talik zones and places of filtering of water in a body of foundation and coastal contiguity of Sytikan dam and Vilui HPS (constructing and operating reservoirs) dams; II) estimation of dynamics of seepage progressing processes for a development of a complex of measures, directional on exception of losses of water from reservoir and supply of stability of a body of a dam. Due to a difficult and hardly predictable geocryological situation in this area, the geophysical methods were included into the system of local monitoring. From ground-level methods of studies in composition of operations were included high frequency electric profiling, electric profiling on a method of a natural field, georadar, seismic profiling and seismic sounding. Down-hole observations on dams included long-term regime temperature measurements and complex of logging studies (resistance, flow meter survey, gamma logging, neutron gamma logging, caliper measurement, radio wave cross-borehole testing). On the ground of geophysical studies the detailed geological section was studied and the binding of seepage spacing to definite lithologic horizons was established. The purpose of geophysical investigations was, first, to control the thawing of frozen rock (talik) within the coastal zone of the reservoir and to assess the dynamics of the process, and second, to identify and to locate places of the most intensive thawing and filtration of water from the reservoir. Alongside field studies, numerical evaluation of permeable talik zone (thawing) origination and development in a broad zone around a dam was made. The non-steady problem of heat-mass transfer in fractured-porous saturated frozen media, interbedded in frozen impermeable strata is discussed. The model takes into consideration the main conditions causing initiation and development of talik near a reservoir: annual temperature and snow cover variation, seasonal water temperature distribution with depth in the storage basin adjacent to the dam and evolution of permeability in rock due to thaw-freeze processes. The results of 2D heat-mass transfer modeling indicate that the development of talik formation depends on the specific thermal and hydraulic material parameters, thickness of the frozen layer covering talik and winter snow blanket insulating ground rocks, seasonal and global temperature trend as well as of presence of fractures in frozen rocks. It seems that proposed model can be used to analyze situations like rapid drainage of ice-rich permafrost-dammed lakes, Alpine frozen slope instability as well as the role of global temperature change influence on a system “ice-rich permafrost-aquifer”.

An integrated approach for assessing climate change impacts on the European electricity sector

I. Tobin, (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France), F.-M. Breon (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France), W. Greuell (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), S. Jerez (University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain), F. Ludwig (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), F. Prettenthaler (University of Graz, Graz, Austria), M. Van Vliet (Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands), R. Vautard (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France)

Abstract details
An integrated approach for assessing climate change impacts on the European electricity sector

I. Tobin, (1) ; FM. Breon (1) ; W. Greuell (2) ; S. Jerez (3) ; F. Ludwig (2) ; F. Prettenthaler (4) ; M. Van Vliet (2) ; R. Vautard (1)
(1) Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Saclay, France; (2) Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; (3) University of Murcia, Department of physics, Murcia, Spain; (4) University of Graz, Joanneum research, Graz, Austria

Abstract content

Due to the development of new technologies and the necessity for reducing greenhouse gases emissions, the electricity sector is expected to hold a large share in the future energy activity sector. However, this sector is vulnerable to changes in climate in several aspects both on the supply and demand sides, which may affect the supply-demand balance. On the supply side, wind power generation could be affected by changes in surface layer wind speed, solar power by changes in solar irradiance and temperature, alteration of the hydrological cycle with temperature increase could impact both the potential for hydropower and the availability of cooling water for thermo-electric power plants. On the demand side, temperature increase will reduce electricity demands for heating while the use of air-conditioning is expected to increase. This study aims at investigating the potential impacts of climate change on the European electricity sector by integrating the different effects of changes in climate variables on wind and solar photovoltaïc power, thermo-electric and hydropower supply along with the effects on electricity demand. Climate information is taken from a multi-model ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model projections (CORDEX) over Europe. Impact models are then used to compute changes in power generation and demand due to changes in climate variables. Several electricity mixes are considered (current mix, contrasted mix scenarios). The assessment is conducted for a +2°C and a +3°C global warming to quantify the impact of climate change limited or not to the +2°C target.

This study has been carried out in the framework of the European FP7 project IMPACT2C.

How significant is the climate impact of Black Carbon?

B. H. Samset (CICERO, Oslo, Norway), G. Myhre (CICERO, Oslo, Norway), Ø. Hodnebrog, (CICERO, Oslo, Norway)

Abstract details
How significant is the climate impact of Black Carbon?

BH. Samset (1) ; G. Myhre (2) ; Ø. Hodnebrog, (2)
(1) CICERO, Climate System, Oslo, Norway; (2) CICERO, Oslo, Norway

Abstract content

Mitigation of Black Carbon (BC) aerosol emissions is an attractive policy option, due to co-benefits on climate and air quality. However the climate impact of present day BC emissions is not well constrained.

BC interacts with the climate directly, through absorption and scattering of incoming sunlight; indirectly, through modification of cloud properties; and semidirectly, through changes to atmospheric stability. To gauge the net effect of BC, these processes need to be well understood and coherently treated. Regional emissions of BC, and how it ages and is transported in the atmosphere, must also be known.

Since the publication of the IPCC AR5, several studies have indicated that the atmospheric lifetime of BC may be overestimated in present climate models. Through comparisons of flight measurement data with model calculations, both geographically and vertically, we show how models tend to overestimate BC concentrations aloft, where it has the strongest direct radiative forcing efficiency.

Other studies have improved our understanding of the semidirect effect of BC, which tends to counterbalance the positive BC direct radiative forcing. We show the vertical dependence of direct, semidirect and net BC forcing efficiency, and illustrate how the interaction of the direct and semidirect effects can lead to a virtually unchanged net BC forcing even for a doubling of emissions.

Based on these recent results, we here present an updated, holistic view of the present and historical climate impact of BC. We present policy relevant values of BC impact metrics, i.e. its radiative forcing per gram of emission, constrained by recent observations. We also argue that while further work is needed to constrain all mechanisms of BC-climate interactions, present emission inventories remain a dominating source of uncertainty in BC climate forcing.

In conclusion, we argue that the climate impact of BC may be lower than has been assumed in recent assessments. While its impact on air quality is clear, this makes BC less attractive for use in climate mitigation policy.

Climate change will impact carbon balance of old-growth temperate rainforests of southern South America

A. G. Gutierrez (Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile)

Abstract details
Climate change will impact carbon balance of old-growth temperate rainforests of southern South America

AG. Gutierrez (1)
(1) Universidad Austral de Chile, Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Valdivia, Chile

Abstract content

Understanding how forests might respond to climate change is important because of their role in storing and sequestering carbon, sustaining biodiversity, and providing ecosystem goods and services. There is a growing body of evidence indicating that ecological effects of climate change on forests are apparent and may vary among regions of the world. Little is known about future changes that climate change could exert on temperate rainforests of southern South America (SSA). Here, I present results of a process-based, dynamic forest model. The model integrates climatic variability and allows projecting forest responses to climate change in this region. Using the developed model, I projected potential futures for temperate rainforests of SSA given likely climate change scenarios. I focused on primary, old-growth temperate rainforests of SSA located on Chiloe Island (-42°S, Chile). Drier climate predicted for this century will alter forest structure, leading to decreases in above ground biomass by 27% of the current value. Compared to current climate, mean net primary production will be reduced in ~30% for year 2100 (from 7.6 to 2.4 tC ha/year). As a result of warming alone, i.e. without accounting for the direct effects of carbon dioxide, temperate rainforests in SSA will become sources of carbon during this century (average among forest stands of -3.7 tonnes of carbon -tC- ha/year in 2100). These results inform the debate about forests responses to future climate in SSA. Future research should focus in developing experimental and long-term monitoring still not available in this region. In the meantime, models provide a useful synthesis of current knowledge that allows exploring these and other additional effects of global change on hitherto overlooked regions of the world, such as southern temperate rainforests

The Challenges of Communicating Unwelcome Climate Messages

T. Rayner (Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The Challenges of Communicating Unwelcome Climate Messages

T. Rayner (1)
(1) Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom

Abstract content

As a recent report on communication of climate science has noted, ‘[t]here is widespread public acceptance of the reality of climate change, but not of the urgency and scale of the challenges that the science indicates it represents’ (UCL 2014: 14). This discrepancy, the report suggests, derives from psychological factors and from cues from influential elites and the media. Communication efforts based on the linear-rational model have failed sufficiently to motivate either publics or political decision makers. Better engagement of policymakers and society more generally with climate scientists and other experts, to evaluate scientific evidence and determine adaptive responses, requires new narratives to be found. With the probability that global temperature rise can be kept below the 2oC target continuing to diminish, the urgency of this task increases. How best to engage individual citizens and organisations with the kind of knowledge about the likelihood and implications of severe future impacts that few want to hear becomes an acute issue. How can adaptive responses be encouraged – by individuals, organisations and policymakers - rather than denial, fatalism and withdrawal?

 

This paper presents the findings of a workshop organised to bring together climate scientists, social scientists, policymakers, consultants, communications specialists, psychologists, the private sector, the media and artists etc., to wrestle with the challenges of communicating findings from research into high impact scenarios, in a world where the 2 degrees limit is increasingly in doubt. As well as ‘the public’, the paper considers how best to engage with other audiences, including infrastructure planners who may not yet be in the habit of ‘climate proofing’ particular investments, and politicians and policy makers who would prefer to ignore the full, transformative implications of the climate crisis. It also reflects on the need to move discussion beyond the narrow framings offered by the geosciences, which tend to provide legitimacy and credibility to catastrophic framings that reinforces the message of climate change as ‘an unfolding, almost predetermined, disaster’ (O’Neill et al. 2010: 1000), to incorporate insights from a wider set of disciplines.

 

O’Neill, S.J., Hulme, M., Turnpenny, J. and Screen, J. (2010), ‘Disciplines, geography and gender in the framing of climate change’, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91, pp. 997-1002.

UCL (2014). Time for Change? Climate Science Reconsidered. The Report of the UCL Policy Commission on Communicating Climate Science.

Better Representation of Climate Change Impacts from Multi-model Ensembles

J. Zaherpour (University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom), S. Gosling (University of Nottingham, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom), N. Mount, (University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom), R. Dankers, (Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom), Y. Masaki (Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan), I. Haddeland (Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway), T. Stacke, (Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany), J. Heinke, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), S. Eisner, (Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany), M. Flörke, (Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany), B. Feketeh, (Civil Engineering Department, The City College of New York,, New York, United States of America), Y. Wadai, (Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands), L. Warszawski (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), J. Schewe, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany), K. Frieler, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), F. Piontek, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), V. Huber, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Better Representation of Climate Change Impacts from Multi-model Ensembles

J. Zaherpour (1) ; S. Gosling (2) ; N. Mount, (1) ; R. Dankers, (3) ; Y. Masaki (4) ; I. Haddeland (5) ; T. Stacke, (6) ; J. Heinke, (7) ; S. Eisner, (8) ; M. Flörke, (8) ; B. Feketeh, (9) ; Y. Wadai, (10) ; L. Warszawski (7) ; J. Schewe, (11) ; K. Frieler, (7) ; F. Piontek, (7) ; V. Huber, (7)
(1) University of Nottingham, Nottingham, United Kingdom; (2) University of Nottingham, School of Geography, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire, United Kingdom; (3) Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; (4) Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan; (5) Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate, Oslo, Norway; (6) Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; (7) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (8) Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; (9) Civil Engineering Department, The City College of New York,, New York, United States of America; (10) Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; (11) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

We present an innovative application of intelligent computing that constrains simulations of river discharge from an ensemble of multiple global hydrological models (GHMs) against observations for 110 large catchments across the globe to provide a single estimate of discharge that is both more robust and better informed than more traditional, simplistic techniques such as the ensemble mean. The approach uses evolutionary algorithms (EAs) through symbolic regression (SR) to develop catchment-specific multi-model combination (MMC) solutions that combine simulated discharge values from seven GHMs participating in ISI-MIP1 (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project). The MMC algorithms are optimised by evaluating individual models (GHMs) performance against observations and then weighting and/or discounting GHMs accordingly in the MMC. In addition, the performance of the ensemble mean in simulating the observations is explored. A numerical integrated metric, ideal point error (IPE) with the privilege of assessing different behavioural aspects of the models simultaneously, is used to measure the performance of GHMs, MMC technique and ensemble mean approaches. Comparisons between simulated and observed discharge show that the optimised MMC algorithms can outperform the simulations of discharge from the best performing GHMs by reducing simulation error up to a magnitude of 30%. The MMC technique also outperforms the ensemble mean method in virtually all of the 110 catchments. Our analyses demonstrates the value of evaluating climate change impact model performance and using the results to provide indicators of hydrological change from multi-model ensembles that are more informative than traditional ensemble averaging techniques.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

A. Ruane (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States of America), S. Mcdermid, (New York University, New York, NY, United States of America), C. Rosenzweig (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York city, United States of America)

Abstract details
Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

A. Ruane (1) ; S. Mcdermid, (2) ; C. Rosenzweig (3)
(1) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Climate Impacts Group, New York, NY, United States of America; (2) New York University, New York, NY, United States of America; (3) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York city, United States of America

Abstract content

The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) has conducted a common set of sensitivity tests on more than 1100 simulation sets representing different farm systems in more than 50 countries, with carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation change sensitivities gauged for ~20 crop species and ~20 crop models.  Here we present an analysis of C3MP results indicating how mean climate changes are likely to affect variability and extreme events within future time periods. 

 

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes.  First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period.  Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate.  Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes exceeding critical biophysical thresholds, leading to more food security extremes.  Finally, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.  This presentation will demonstrate each of these effects and illustrate the potential implications for future food production and associated agricultural economies under climate change.

Economic Impact of climate change and benefits of adaptation in maize production in Southern Africa: Case study from South Africa, Namibia and Botswana

M. Teweldemedhin (Polytechnic of Namibia, Windhoek, Namibia)

Abstract details
Economic Impact of climate change and benefits of adaptation in maize production in Southern Africa: Case study from South Africa, Namibia and Botswana

M. Teweldemedhin (1)
(1) Polytechnic of Namibia, Agriculture, Windhoek, Namibia

Abstract content

The paper applied the Trade-Off Analysis–Multi-Dimensional (TOA-MD) model to evaluate the economic impacts of climate change and benefits of adaptation strategies for maize-based agricultural production systems in Southern Africa. The analysis was based on data collected from three countries, South Africa, Namibia and Botswana. The empirical analyses combined simulated baseline and future simulated yield from the Decision Support Systems for Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model, under five different climate scenarios selected from 20 Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The paper focused on analysing three main objectives: (a) the sensitivity of current crop production systems to future climate change, (b) the sensitivity of future crop production systems to future climate change and (c) the benefits of adaptation in the future. The empirical results show that current and future crop production systems in the three study countries are sensitive to future climate change and yields would decline if no adaptation strategies are implemented. The results with the adaptation package show positive gains in yields, farm net returns and marginal reductions in poverty. In addition, the percentage of vulnerable farmers decrease for the scenario with adaptation compared to the other two scenarios without adaptation. Since various assumptions and uncertainties are associated with using the proposed approach, the results should be interpreted with caution. Despite these limitations, the methodology presented in this study shows the potential to yield new insights into the way that realistic adaptation strategies could improve the livelihoods of smallholder farmers

Building a statistical emulator for prediction of crop yield response to climate change: A global gridded panel data set approach

M. Mistry (Ca' Foscari University and FEEM, Venice, Italy), E. De Cian (FEEM, Venice, Italy), I. Wing (Boston University, Boston, United States of America)

Abstract details
Building a statistical emulator for prediction of crop yield response to climate change: A global gridded panel data set approach

M. Mistry (1) ; E. De Cian (2) ; I. Wing (3)
(1) Ca' Foscari University and FEEM, Department of economics, Venice, Italy; (2) FEEM, Venice, Italy; (3) Boston University, Dept. of earth & environment, Boston, United States of America

Abstract content

There is widespread concern that trends and variability in weather induced by climate change will detrimentally affect global agricultural productivity and food supplies. Reliable quantification of the risks of negative impacts at regional and global scales is a critical research need, which has so far been met by forcing state-of-the-art global gridded crop models with outputs of global climate model (GCM) simulations in exercises such as the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP)-Fastrack.

Notwithstanding such progress, it remains challenging to use these simulation-based projections to assess agricultural risk because their gridded fields of crop yields are fundamentally denominated as discrete combinations of warming scenarios, GCMs and crop models, and not as model-specific or model-averaged yield response functions of meteorological shifts, which may have their own independent probability of occurrence. By contrast, the empirical climate economics literature has adeptly represented agricultural responses to meteorological variables as reduced-form statistical response surfaces which identify the crop productivity impacts of additional exposure to different intervals of temperature and precipitation [cf Schlenker and Roberts, 2009]. This raises several important questions: (1) what do the equivalent reduced-form statistical response surfaces look like for crop model outputs, (2) do they exhibit systematic variation over space (e.g., crop suitability zones) or across crop models with different characteristics, (3) how do they compare to estimates based on historical observations, and (4) what are the implications for the characterization of climate risks?

We address these questions by estimating statistical yield response functions for four major crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybeans) over the historical period (1971-2004) as well as future climate change scenarios (2005-2099) using ISIMIP-Fastrack data for five GCMs and seven crop models under rain-fed and irrigated management regimes. Our approach, which is patterned after Lobell and Burke [2010], is a novel application of cross-section/time-series statistical techniques from the climate economics literature to large, high-dimension, multi-model datasets, and holds considerable promise as a diagnostic methodology to elucidate uncertainties in the processes simulated by crop models, and to support the development of climate impact intercomparison exercises.

Widespread vulnerability of current crop production to climate change demonstrated using a data-driven approach

T. A. M. Pugh (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), C. Müller (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), J. Elliott (University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, United States of America), A. Arneth (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany)

Abstract details
Widespread vulnerability of current crop production to climate change demonstrated using a data-driven approach

TAM. Pugh (1) ; C. Müller (2) ; J. Elliott (3) ; A. Arneth (1)
(1) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (3) University of Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Computation Institute, Chicago, United States of America

Abstract content

The projected increase in global population suggests that, among a range of measures, an increase in food production will likely be necessary to achieve food security. A great deal of effort has been focused on the so-called “yield gap”, the difference between actual and potential yields. The closing of this yield gap would bring about massive increases in production. Intensification actions such as irrigation, fertilisation, and better farming practices can bring the actual yield closer to the potential yield, although such actions may not be practical everywhere. Yet climate change greatly complicates this picture; crops are sensitive to their growing environment, and it is therefore inevitable that climate change will impact upon potential crop yields, changing the target for which intensification measures are aiming, and meaning that significant intensification may be required just to hold actual yields constant. Global crop models give some insight into such changes, but huge uncertainties in their process representations make even the direction of future change uncertain. We demonstrate a complementary data-driven approach, based on observations of current potential yield and climate analogues, to assess the vulnerability of yields of the three major cereal crops, wheat, maize and rice, to climate change. We find that huge swathes of current cropland show strong reductions in their potential yields of major cereal crops by the mid 21st century, indicating a large vulnerability of crop production in these areas to climate change, and greatly reducing the capacity for intensification of yields. These reductions are predominately in tropical or arid areas, and include current high-productivity areas like the North American corn-belt. Conversely, however, we also find large areas where potential yields increase substantially under climate change. These areas are most prominent in the northern temperate zone, and include areas not currently under cropland. Our approach is independent of the crop modelling methodologies previously used for future yield projections, however we find our results to be consistent with those from an ensemble of process-based global crop models, providing an important additional constraint on projections of future yield under climate change. Adaptation measures based on intensification of yields must consider the change in productive potential due to climate change.

Two possible future climate scenarios for AgMIP-GGCMI – Sulfate Injection Climate Intervention and Regional Nuclear War

L. Xia (Rutgers University, New Brunswick NJ, United States of America), A. Robock (Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States of America), J. Elliott (University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America)

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Two possible future climate scenarios for AgMIP-GGCMI – Sulfate Injection Climate Intervention and Regional Nuclear War

L. Xia (1) ; A. Robock (2) ; J. Elliott (3)
(1) Rutgers University, Department of environmental sciences, New Brunswick NJ, United States of America; (2) Rutgers University, Department of Environmental Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States of America; (3) University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate is one of the most important factors determining crop yields and world food supplies.  To be well prepared for possible futures, it is necessary to study yield changes of major crops under different climate scenarios.  Here we propose two possible future climate scenarios for the global crop modelling community: stratospheric sulfate climate intervention and regional nuclear war.  Although we certainly do not advocate either scenario, we cannot exclude the possibilities: if global warming is getting worse, society might consider deliberately manipulating global temperature; if nuclear weapons still exist, we might face a nuclear war catastrophe.  Since in both scenarios there would be reductions of temperature, precipitation, and insolation, which are three controlling factors on crop growth, it is important to study food supply changes under the two cases.  There have been 12 general circulation modelling groups participating in the Geoengineering Modeling Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) and three modeling groups have conducted the same regional nuclear war simulations, with fires from targets injecting 5 Tg soot into the upper troposphere.  We are approaching a robust understanding of climate changes under the two scenarios.  We have conducted simulations for China, because of its high population and crop production in the world and we have been working on global agriculture impact under those two scenarios using the crop model in the Community Land Model (CLM-crop).  Also, we are preparing protocols and datasets for the Gridded Crop Modeling Initiative (GGCMI), which will conduct a multi-crop multi model assessment of crop yields under the above two simulated climate scenarios.  Preliminary results indicate significant changes in patterns of global food production, with substantial losses in major bread baskets around the world under the simulated regional nuclear war scenarios.  Here, we would like to invite more global crop modelling groups to be involved in this project, and hence to gain a better understanding of global agriculture responses under the two possible but unpleasant future climate scenarios. 

Projected global crop yield variability under ENSO and the NAO

K. Childers (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), K. Frieler, (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Projected global crop yield variability under ENSO and the NAO

K. Childers (1) ; K. Frieler, (1)
(1) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

Future food supplies under a changing climate hinge on our ability to understand and adapt to changing precipitation and temperature patterns, which fuel global agriculture supplies. Projections suggest that potential yields of many crops will decrease as temperatures rise. Few studies, however, have addressed the predictability of the spatial and temporal variations over interannual to decadal timescales. In many regions the climate over such periods can be described in terms of large-scale climate indices such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. These climate teleconnections result in semi-periodic global patterns of precipitation and temperature, which can alter growing season conditions over large geographical areas and have been shown to directly impact the regional and national yields of several crops. By analyzing the frequency and duration of such patterns in global climate model projections and the effects of each phase on potential agriculture yield, it may be possible to better project global yield variability. Here we present such an analysis of the global yield patterns of three major cereal crops (maize, rice and wheat) and soy on a 0.5 x 0.5 degree grid generated within ISI-MIP. Potential crop yields are simulated using climate projections for four RCPs from HadGEM2-ES. The combined crop model ensemble indicates regional yield averages differ from neutral years by up to 10% during opposing phases of ENSO and the NAO. Furthermore, average ENSO phase responses are not perfectly symmetric and are linked to yield decreases for some regions under both warm and cool phases. In general, the major cereal crops show the strongest ensemble response to ENSO, particularly in the northern U.S. and Europe. The effects of NAO phase are significant over a smaller geographical area than ENSO, but with similar or slightly higher magnitudes. The spatial patterns associated with each phase are further supported in many highly agriculturally productive regions by significant time series correlations between annual yield and NAO or ENSO indices. By linking agriculture yields to climate teleconnection indices we increase the predictability of decadal yields. In addition the association may be extended to impacts from other sectors, allowing for projections of exposure to coincident regional effects.

 

 

Modelling of Climate Change Impact on Maize Yields in Croatia

V. Vucetic (METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE, ZAGREB, Croatia)

Abstract details
Modelling of Climate Change Impact on Maize Yields in Croatia

V. Vucetic (1)
(1) METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE, AGROMETEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, ZAGREB, Croatia

Abstract content

Analyzing agricultural systems and modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production is a very important topic, particularly nowadays as food supplies are becoming scarcer in many parts of the world and the need for all people to have sufficient food. As climate changes of different intensity in various regions were detected, there is a need for researching them at regional and national levels. The main application of the crop models is in climate change impact research on agriculture. Maize, winter wheat and spring barley are very often used for scientific investigations in the central and southeastern Europe using the different crop-weather models. Maize is one of the most important agricultural crops in Croatia and its vegetation period coincides with the warm season, from May to October. Therefore, it was decisive factor in the crop type choice for the research of climatic changes impact on maize yields in Croatia. The meteorological data of the Zagreb-Maksimir station, which is situated in the central Croatia, and pedological data, physiological and morphological data obtained in the field maize experiment in Zagreb have been analyzed. The Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model, as one of the most applied crop model in the world, has been used for the investigation of maize production in the present climate since 1949. The linear trends of model outputs and Mann-Kendall test indicated a significant earlier onset of silking by 1.4 days/10 years and physiological maturity by 4.5 days/10 years in the central Croatia which started in mid-1990s. Moreover, a significant decrease in maize yields by 216 kg/ha in 10 years is also obtained. The yield trend became significant at the beginning of the 21st century. There was a slight decrease in kernel mass (0.01 g/10 years) and aboveground biomass (122 kg/ha in 10 years). A positive trend in evapotranspiration and soil evaporation (around 3 mm/10 years) and in runoff (0.6 mm/10 years) has been noticed during the vegetation period. Thus, significant shortening the vegetation period by 5 days and reduction in maize yield by 2% have been estimated in the present climate. Further investigation involved the generation of synthetic meteorological series representing the changed climate by stochastic weather generator Met&Roll and different climate change scenarios. The climate change scenarios were prepared by the pattern scaling technique using the following global climate models: ECHAM, HadCM and SCIRO. The middle climate sensitivity is a 2.5°C increase in global temperature to equilibrium doubled carbon dioxide. When the three climate change scenarios had been prepared, the stochastic weather generator Met&Roll was applied to generate a 99-years synthetic meteorological series. Using the synthetic meteorological series in the DSSAT model, the indirect effect of increased carbon dioxide on maize yields in the central Croatia has been estimated for different climate change scenarios for years 2050 and 2100. All climate change scenarios for the 21st century projected a shorter growing season and a reduction in maize yields. The maize vegetation period in the central Croatia would be 39 days shorter for ECHAM, 42 days for HadCM and 34 days shorter for CSIRO, which would result in 14%, 25% and 22% smaller yields for maize, respectively, at the end of the 21st century. Both shifting planting date and using hybrids with longer growing season would be beneficial for maize productivity in the changing climate. The experience of farmers and agronomists in the central Croatia shows they have already been adapting maize production to the warmer weather conditions in the last decade. The usual hybrids in the central Croatia were hybrids with a medium growing season, but nowadays hybrids with a longer growing season are increasingly used. In the future, thus, Croatia could belong to the area of decreased maize yields. Some adaptation options like shifting to an earlier sowing date and selecting hybrids with longer growing season and resistant to drought could be an appropriate response to offset the negative effect of an increase in temperature. The present study could help in optimizing and improving agricultural management in order to adapt to changes in climate and weather conditions in Croatia.

Biophysical modeling of climate change impacts on crop yields in Europe by 2030-2050 and socio-economic implications

F. Ramos (European Commission, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy), M. Blanco (Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain), B. Van Doorslaer (European Commission, Joint Research Center, Sevilla, Spain), D. Fumagalli (European Commission, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy), A. Ceglar (European Commission, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy), F. Dentener (European Commission, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy), L. Stanca (Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain)

Abstract details
Biophysical modeling of climate change impacts on crop yields in Europe by 2030-2050 and socio-economic implications

F. Ramos (1) ; M. Blanco (2) ; B. Van Doorslaer (3) ; D. Fumagalli (1) ; A. Ceglar (1) ; F. Dentener (1) ; L. Stanca (2)
(1) European Commission, Joint Research Center, Institute for environment and sustainability, Ispra, Italy; (2) Technical University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain; (3) European Commission, Joint Research Center, Institute for prospective technological studies, Sevilla, Spain

Abstract content

An impact assessment of climate change scenarios on agriculture was run covering the EU-28 region and focusing on 2030 and 2050 time horizons. To assess the impact of model uncertainties, three model realizations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios were used as the input of the analysis, based upon the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 from the runs of global circulation models (GCM) HADGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM, all bias-corrected at 0.5°x0.5° resolution.

The WOFOST (World Food Studies) model has been used within the BioMA (Biophysical Model Application) platform to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop yields at EU-level. The crop yield simulations were performed at 25x25 km resolution using the soil and crop parametrization of the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) that provides the European Commission operational seasonal forecasts of crop yields in Europe. The crops covered by this study were wheat, maize, barley, rye, rice, field beans, rapeseed, sunflower, sugar beet and potato. For each of these ten crops, simulations were performed under water limited (rainfed) and potential (fully irrigated) conditions. Uncertainties are associated with the effect of CO2 on plant growth which were assessed by simulations considering or not the CO2 fertilization effect. The simulated yields were aggregated at regional, national and EU28 levels, using regional statistics on crop areas.

The crop growth simulations show in most of the cases a stagnation or a moderate increase in the potential yields of most of the crops with the notable exception of maize, sunflower and at a lesser extent potato. Under water limited conditions the picture is slightly different with more pronounced negative effects for maize and sunflower. The greatest decreases in the water limited yields occur with HADGEM2-ES GCM that simulates a drier future climate than the two other GCMs. The actual crop yields, estimated by a weighted average of potential and water limited yields using data on European irrigation shares (EUROSTAT), show an overall moderate increase for the three climate models under RCP 8.5 scenario when the CO2 effect is taken into account but a decrease when it is not.

The spatial distribution of the yield changes is crop specific with for instance an overall increase in winter wheat yields for most of the EU 28 regions and an overall decrease of maize (summer crop) yields, with in both cases a reversed result for northern Europe.

Focusing on the year 2030, a bio-economic approach was proposed to jointly assess biophysical and socio-economic effects of climate change on agriculture, providing both global level analysis as well as regionalised for the EU. The global agro-economic model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regionalised Impact) has been used to assess the effects of climate induced yield changes on agricultural production and prices. The future quantitative societal developments were introduces in the model by means of an intermediate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2).

The results suggest that agriculture markets projections to 2030 are sensitive to changes in crop productivity and, therefore, to the uncertainties linked to climate change. They show as well that market forces can reverse the effects of climate induced yield changes with a decrease (increase) in production when yields increase (decrease). The price changes will induce adjustments both on the intensity of production and on crop areas. A sectorial analysis indicates that the regional variability in prices and areas is greater for oilseeds than for cereals. Overall the modelling exercise estimates a moderate decrease of the EU agricultural income for all the scenarios with the CO2 fertilization effect simulated and a moderate increase when the CO2 fertilization effect is ignored. The limitations of these conclusions will be explored.

High temperature stress on agricultural crops due to climate change

L. Kyoungmi (National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea), H.-S. Kang, (National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea), J.-Y. Kim, (National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea), C. Chunho (National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea), C.-H. Park (National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
High temperature stress on agricultural crops due to climate change

L. Kyoungmi (1) ; HS. Kang, (1) ; JY. Kim, (1) ; C. Chunho (1) ; CH. Park (1)
(1) National Institute of Meteorological Research, Jeju, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

  Temperature variability is an important determinant of the yield of annual crops, particularly when high temperature episodes coincide with flowering. Under climate change an increase in the frequency of such episodes may occur. Hence temperature variability could become a major yield-determining factor for some regions in the decades to come. The magnitude of the impact will depend upon the level of heat stress tolerance in the genotypes grown. 

  Mean temperature affects yield by determining the duration of developmental stages. The impact of high temperatures, particularly near flowering, is primarily on the setting of fruit or grain. Most crops are currently grown in regions where current temperatures are already close to optimum for crop production. Any further increases in mean temperatures or of short episodes of high temperatures during sensitive stages, may be supra-optimal and reduce grain yield. 

  In this study, we performed a spatially explicit assessment of heat stress at the global scale, considering these environmental and management aspects, to identify hot-spots of risk for four important food crops (wheat, rice, maize and soybean). We used the Global Agro-Ecological Zones Model (GAEZ v3.0) to simulate the risk of heat stress for these four crops for a 30-year baseline historical climate (1961-1990) and an alternative future climate scenario (2071-2090) considering climate change.

  There was a consistent increase in the intensity of heat stress from the baseline climate to the future climate change scenario for all crops. Rice showed high heat stress intensity already for the base climate, particularly in South Asia. The main hot-spots of heat stress occurred in the continental parts of Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia and North America.

  In contrast, only little heat stress was predicted for maize under the base climate. However, the intensity increased highly under RCP8.5. Northern India, the Sahel region, Central South America and Eastern North America were hot spots of heat stress for maize.

  A moderate heat stress intensity was predicted for soybean for the base climate with a considerable increase in intensity and extension for RCP8.5. Compared with the other crops, there was less change in spatial pattern and intensity of heat stress for wheat from the Base to the RCP8.5. 

  The percentage of days with heat stress events increased from the base to the RCP8.5 climate scenario. This increase was most evident for rice in suitable areas of Central Asia, South Asia and Central North America where a high prevalence was predicted. On the other hand, wheat had a less pronounced change in the frequency of stress in RCP8.5.

  Mainly tropical agriculture will suffer from climate change. Our results indicate that global food supply may also be affected by heat stress in temperate and sub-tropical regions. Without mitigation measures to combat climate change or the implementation of local adaptive technologies, countries with extensive agricultural landsin continental regions at high latitudes may experience significant crop losses.

 

* This work was supported by the 2015 R&D Project of the Korea Meteorological Administration “Development and application of technology for weather forecast”.

 

Climate change impacts on Apple trees phenology in northeastern parts of Iran

Y. Hojjatollah (University Of Isfahan, Isfahan,Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran), C. Ahn (Apec climate center, Pusan, Republic of Korea), S. Maryam (Farzanegan Amin high school, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran)

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Climate change impacts on Apple trees phenology in northeastern parts of Iran

Y. Hojjatollah (1) ; C. Ahn (2) ; S. Maryam (3)
(1) University Of Isfahan, Climatology, Isfahan,Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran; (2) Apec climate center, Pusan, Republic of Korea; (3) Farzanegan Amin high school, Isfahan, Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract content

Abstract: 

 Apple is one of the most important agricultural products of Iran. Global warming can effects on many sectors especially agricultural products and food security. One direct consequence of a warmer climate is the earlier onset of Bud break and flowering stages of deciduous trees such as apple in spring and earlier ripening in the end of growing season. The main objective of the present work is to assess the climate change impacts on Apple trees phenology, especially beginning of flowering in spring and ripening time of apple in the end of growing season. These two phonological stages are very important because of the sensibility of Apple orchards to early spring and late autumn frost risk. To do this we used historical data of available meteorological stations as well as CCSM4 outputs for the daily maximum and minimum for the upcoming 3 decades (2006-2039).The phonological data was collected from the Golmakan agrometeorological station during 1999-2006.  On the base of UTAH model and using the phonological and historic climatic data we estimated the phonological phases of apple during next 3 decades. According to the results obtained by Rcp4.5 and Rcp8.5 outputs, in both scenarios significantly earlier flowering and ripening phenophases over the study area during 2006-2039 periods are estimated.

Detecting the early stage of Phaeosphaeria leaf spot infestations in maize hybrid lines under different climate change scenarios using in situ hyperspectral data

A. Elhadi (University of The Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa), H. Deng (Intuit Mountain View, CA, United States of America), J. Odini (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa), E. Abdel-Rahman (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa), O. Mutanga (University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa)

Abstract details
Detecting the early stage of Phaeosphaeria leaf spot infestations in maize hybrid lines under different climate change scenarios using in situ hyperspectral data

A. Elhadi (1) ; H. Deng (2) ; J. Odini (3) ; E. Abdel-Rahman (3) ; O. Mutanga (3)
(1) University of The Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, School of Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) Intuit Mountain View, Data mining, CA, United States of America; (3) University of KwaZulu-Natal, School of agriculture, earth and environmental sciences, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa

Abstract content

Phaeosphaeria leaf spot (PLS) is considered as one of the major diseases that threat the stability of maize production in tropical and subtropical African regions. PLS is a foliar disease in maize caused by the ascomycete fungus Phaeospharia maydis (Henn.), and has spread widely in areas of high rainfall and moderate temperatures. PLS can  result in a considerable reduction in photosynthetic leaf area as the spots coalesce , cause premature leaf drying thus reduce plant cycle and sharp decrease in grain size and weight and result in early plant death. The objective of the present study was to investigate the use of hyperspectral data in detecting the early stage of PLS in tropical maize. Maize ground-based hyperspectral data were collected at the field level from healthy and early stage of PLS over two years (2013 and 2014) using a handheld Spectroradiometer. Leave samples for full biochemical analysis ware collected form the healthy leaves and early stage of PLS to test the impact of PLS on the maize plant properties.  An integration of a new developed guided regularized random forest (GRRF) and traditional random forest (RF) was used for feature selection and classification respectively. The 2013 dataset was used to train the model, while the 2014 dataset was used as independent test dataset.

Results show that there were statistically significant different in biochemical between the healthy leaves and early stage of PLS within certain biochemical variables such as nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium and magnesium. The new developed GRRF was able to reduce the high dimensionality of hyperspectral data by selecting key wavelengths with less autocorrelation. These wavelengths are allocated at 420 nm, 795 nm, 779, 1543 nm, 1747, nm and 1010 nm. Using these variable (n = 6), random forest classifier was able to discriminate between the healthy maize and early stage of PLS with and overall accuracy of 88% and kappa value of 0.75. This study demonstrates the potential of hyperspectral data in detecting the early stage of PLS in tropical maize. The study offers insight to the potential of large-scale mapping and monitoring of the early stage of PLS in tropical maize using space borne and/or airborne hyperspectral data.

Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications

A. Craparo (University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa), P. Van Asten (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Kampala, Uganda), P. Läderach (International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Hanoi, Vietnam), L. Jassogne (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Kampala, Uganda), S. Grab (University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa)

Abstract details
Coffea arabica yields decline in Tanzania due to climate change: global implications

A. Craparo (1) ; P. Van Asten (2) ; P. Läderach (3) ; L. Jassogne (2) ; S. Grab (1)
(1) University of Witwatersrand, Geography, Archaeology and Environmental Studies, Johannesburg, South Africa; (2) International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Systems agronomy, Kampala, Uganda; (3) International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Ciat - asia, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abstract content

Coffee is the world’s most valuable tropical export crop. Recent studies predict severe climate change impacts on Coffea arabica (C. arabica) production. However, quantitative production figures are necessary to provide coffee stakeholders and policy makers with evidence to justify immediate action. Using data from the northern Tanzanian highlands, we demonstrate for the first time that increasing night time (Tmin) temperature is the most significant climatic variable responsible for diminishing C. arabica yields between 1961-2012. Projecting this forward, every 1°C rise in Tmin will result in annual yield losses of 137 ± 16.87 KgHa-1 (P= 1.80e-10). According to our ARIMA model, average coffee production will drop to 145 ± 41 KgHa-1 (P=8.45e-09) by 2060. Consequently, without adequate adaptation strategies and/or substantial external inputs, coffee production will be severely reduced in the Tanzanian highlands in the near future. Attention should also be drawn to the arabica growing regions of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ethiopia and Kenya, as substantiated time series evidence shows these areas have followed strikingly similar minimum temperature trends. This is the first study on coffee, globally, providing essential time series evidence that climate change has already had a negative impact on C. arabica yields.  

Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Index in Korean Peninsular Using Multi-Model Ensemble Downscaled Climate Prediction of CMIP5

U. Chung (APEC Climate Center, Busan, Republic of Korea), J. P. Cho, (APEC Climate Center, Busan, Republic of Korea), M. C. Seo, (National Institute of Crop Science, Jeonju, Republic of Korea), W. S. Jung, (KonKuk University , Seoul, Republic of Korea)

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Evaluation of Agro-Climatic Index in Korean Peninsular Using Multi-Model Ensemble Downscaled Climate Prediction of CMIP5

U. Chung (1) ; JP. Cho, (1) ; MC. Seo, (2) ; WS. Jung, (3)
(1) APEC Climate Center, Climate Change Research, Busan, Republic of Korea; (2) National Institute of Crop Science, Crop production and physiology research division, Jeonju, Republic of Korea; (3) KonKuk University , Department of applied bioscience, life & environmental sciences, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

   The agro-climatic index is one of the ways to assess the climate resources of particular agricultural areas on the prospect of agricultural production; it can be a key indicator of agricultural productivity by providing the basic information required for the implementation of different and various farming techniques and practicalities to estimate the growth and yield of crops from the climate resources such as air temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation. However, the distribution of agricultural climate resources varies depending on the climate change, and the agro-climate index can always be changed because the index is not an absolute. Recently, many studies which are related the uncertainty of future climate change have been being actively conducted with multiple ensemble approach by developing and improving dynamic downscaling of climate information as well as statistical downscaling. RCP (representative concentration pathways) future scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report of IPCC (intergovernmental panel on climate change) have been used in many recent studies. In this study, the agro-climatic index of Korean Peninsula, such as plant and crop period based on each base temperature, growing degree day, frost free day, and heating and cooling degree day were calculated for assessment of the indices’ temporal and spatial variations and uncertainties of the indices on climate change; the downscaled historical climate (1976-2005) and RCP future climate sceneries of AR5 (2011-2040) were applied to the calculation of the index. Additionally in the study, the assessments of the agro-climatic index and multi-model ensemble were considered for the practicability of the agricultural digital climate map of RDA (rural development administration). 

   The result showed each average of six agro-climatic indices of nine individual global climate models, as well as multi-model ensembles agreed with agro-climatic indices which were calculated by the observed data. It was confirmed that multi-model ensembles, as well as each individual global climate model emulated well on past climate in the four major Rivers of South Korea (Han, Nakdong, Geum, and Yeoungsan and Seumjin). The six agro-climatic indices of the Korean Peninsula were estimated to increase in nine individual global climate models and multi-model ensembles in future climate scenarios. However, spatial downscaling still needs further improvement since the agro-climatic indices of some individual global climate models showed different variations with the observed indices at the change of spatial distribution of four Rivers. The differences and uncertainties of the agro-climatic indices have not been reduced on the unlimited coupling of multi-model ensembles. Further research is still required; however, the differences started to improve when combining of three or four individual global climate models in the study. The agro-climatic indices which were derived and evaluated in the study will be the baseline for the assessment of agro-climatic abnormal indices and agro-productivity indices of the next research work. For example, if we assume that the temperature of winter will decrease in some areas of Nakdong, Yeongsan and Seumjin Rivers since frost free day has been estimated to increase in those regions in future climate projections, the assessment of frost free day of the regions will be able to take advantage of the assessment of the increasing uncertainty of agro-productivity of the winter crop or agricultural cropping system (e.g., double cropping system) by analyzing agro-climatic abnormal index (e.g., frequency of frost). 

The impact of high temperature on land values in Europe

E. Massetti (Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, United States of America), P. S. Van (Hasselt Univeristy, Diepenbeek, Belgium), R. Mendelsohn, (Yale University, New Haven, United States of America)

Abstract details
The impact of high temperature on land values in Europe

E. Massetti (1) ; PS. Van (2) ; R. Mendelsohn, (3)
(1) Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy, Atlanta, GA, United States of America; (2) Hasselt Univeristy, Diepenbeek, Belgium; (3) Yale University, School of forestry and environmental studies, New Haven, United States of America

Abstract content

In Ricardian studies the relationship between climate and land values is conventionally assumed to be nonlinear. This nonlinearity has traditionally been captured using a quadratic model of temperature and precipitation (Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw 1994; Schlenker, Hanemann, and Fisher 2005; Massetti and Mendelsohn 2011; Massetti and Mendelsohn 2012). This assumption has been supported by the data as the squared terms on climate have generally been statistically significant. Schlenker and Roberts (2009) have suggested that the effect of temperature on agricultural productivity may be not captured by a quadratic functional form because it is highly non-linear at the high temperatures. Schlenker and Roberts found a temperature threshold at about 30°C. Beyond this threshold agricultural productivity plummets.

Schlenker and Roberts (2009) limit their analysis to crop yields and use yearly data. Thus, they focus on short-term weather fluctuations and they neglect the possibility that farmers switch crops to avoid the harmful thresholds. Massetti and Mendelsohn (2014) is the first study that uses flexible functional forms to estimate the effect of growing season temperature on American farmland values and crop yields. The paper finds evidence of the hill-shaped response function for both farmland value and crop yields. But there is no evidence of temperature thresholds whether temperature is measured at 3 hour intervals, daily, or for multiple days.

With this paper we test if the relationship between temperature and land values in Europe is characterized by temperature thresholds. This is a relevant research question because if thresholds exist the increase in mean temperature will cause sizeable damages to the European agriculture. Thus, our study has direct policy implications for both mitigation and adaptation policy.

We use a flexible specifications for temperature in a Ricardian setup replicating the method of Massetti and Mendelsohn (2014) and following in spirit the method developed by Schlenker and Roberts (2009). With our method we are able to detect if farmland that is more frequently exposed to the right tail of the temperature distribution is also consistently traded at lower value than other farmland. If the Ricardian relationship is characterized by temperature thresholds we expect to find that the effect of additional warming at the highest temperatures is significantly negative and much larger than at lower temperature levels.

This paper uses a unique dataset obtained by merging farm-level data for more than 37,000 farms derived by van Passel, Massetti, and Mendelsohn (2014) from the Farm Accountancy Data (FADN) with daily temperature data from the ERA-INTERIM dataset over 1981-2010. The rest of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 illustrates the method used for the analysis. Section 3 describes the dataset used. Section 4 illustrates results and presents robustness tests. Conclusions follow.

Past and future changes in climate of rice-wheat cropping zone in Punjab, Pakistan

B. Syed Ahsan Ali (Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan), G. Rasul (Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad, Pakistan), A. Ruane (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States of America), G. Hoogenboom (Washington State University, Washington, United States of America)

Abstract details
Past and future changes in climate of rice-wheat cropping zone in Punjab, Pakistan

B. Syed Ahsan Ali (1) ; G. Rasul (1) ; A. Ruane (2) ; G. Hoogenboom (3)
(1) Pakistan Meteorological Department, Research and Development Division, Islamabad, Pakistan; (2) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Climate Impacts Group, New York, NY, United States of America; (3) Washington State University, Washington, United States of America

Abstract content

Agriculture is ranked Pakistan’s top among economic sectors vulnerable to the potential impacts of climate change. The agricultural production system is directly affected by weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation, and rainfall) that are projected to change in the future (following increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases). Climatic extremes such as drought, floods and heat waves, are expected to increase with detrimental consequences for agriculture and livestock production, but changes in mean climates also pose challenges to sustainable development. This study presents climate change results for five districts within the major rice-wheat productivity zone of Punjab province in Pakistan. The results are focused on RCP8.5 mid century (2040-2069) scenarios derived from five global climate models (GCMs) output and the Kharif (June-October) and Rabi (November-April) seasons. Analysis of recent historical weather data of Sialkot and Sheikhupura districts shows an increase in minimum temperatures and maximum temperatures and a large variation in rainfall. This temperature change and variability in rainfall is expected to enhance further as we approach the 2050s. Mean maximum temperature is projected to increase by 2-2.5ºC during rice growing (Kharif) season and 2.4-2.7ºC during the wheat growing (Rabi) season. Rainfall during rice growing season is more uncertain, with projections indicating an increase of 25%-35 % in the study region, while a minimal change is expected during the Rabi season. The projected increase in monsoon intensity corresponds with the climax of the rice season, leaving no doubt about the crop water demand satisfaction. However, simultaneous increase in day and night temperature may affect the growth and development at some critical phenological stages. 

Rising CO2 emissions benefit global crop water productivity

D. Deryng (University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom), J. Elliott (University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America), A. Ruane (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States of America), C. Folberth (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxemburg, Austria), C. Müller (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), T. A. M. Pugh (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany), E. Schmid (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences,, Vienna, Austria), K. Boote (University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America), D. Conway (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment,, London, United Kingdom), D. Gerten (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), J. Jones (University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America), N. Khabarov (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),, Laxemburg, Austria), S. Olin, (Lund University, Lund, Sweden), S. Schaphoff (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany), H. Yang (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), Dübendorf, Switzerland), C. Rosenzweig (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America)

Abstract details
Rising CO2 emissions benefit global crop water productivity

D. Deryng (1) ; J. Elliott (2) ; A. Ruane (3) ; C. Folberth (4) ; C. Müller (5) ; TAM. Pugh (6) ; E. Schmid (7) ; K. Boote (8) ; D. Conway (9) ; D. Gerten (5) ; J. Jones (8) ; N. Khabarov (10) ; S. Olin, (11) ; S. Schaphoff (5) ; H. Yang (12) ; C. Rosenzweig (13)
(1) University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom; (2) University of Chicago, Chicago, United States of America; (3) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Climate Impacts Group, New York, NY, United States of America; (4) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Ecosystems services and management program, Laxemburg, Austria; (5) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; (6) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, IMK-IFU, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; (7) University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences,, Boku, Vienna, Austria; (8) University of Florida, Gainesville, United States of America; (9) Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment,, London school of economics and political sciences, London, United Kingdom; (10) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA),, Ecosystems services and management program, Laxemburg, Austria; (11) Lund University, Lund, Sweden; (12) Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), Dübendorf, Switzerland; (13) NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate change threatens global water and food security, especially in arid regions where water availability is already a critical limiting factor of agricultural productivity. Yet, increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are expected to raise rates of crop photosynthesis whilst also increasing the ratio of crop yield to water use, or crop water productivity (CWP). The potentially large positive effects of rising CO2 on CWP will have major implications for increasing crop yields and reducing pressure on freshwater resources. However, to date there has been no systematic evaluation of global crop model simulation of CWP response to CO2 and climate change, and estimates of carbon fertilisation effects on crops based on observations continue to be controversial.

Our study addresses these gaps; by providing the first comprehensive global scale assessment of the combined effects of climate change and CO2 on global CWP using a large multi-model ensemble (originating from the Agricultural Modelling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), and by directly comparing model results with observations. Our modelling results suggest combined effects of climate change and CO2 are substantial, leading to increase in CWP by up to 13-27% globally (ensemble median, with a range of different crop types) by the 2080s relative to the 1980s. The range increases to 17-35% in water scarce arid regions. This suggests significant alleviation of negative effects of climate change on crop yield and pressure on water use in these regions. Yet, the spread of CWP results doubles when considering climate and CO2 effects, reflecting uncertainty in modelling methodology and assumptions about CO2 response, which are large due to the lack of experimental observations globally. We show the spatial distribution in the impacts on four major crops critical for global food security: maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Our results indicate CO2 fertilisation effects play a key role in future agricultural production and water management and emphasise the importance of extending experimental observation, especially in arid and semi-arid regions.

Our study addresses global scale modelling of an important dimension of agricultural production that is intimately connected with water resources. The effects of CO2 are shown to be large, key uncertainties are highlighted and needs for modelling and empirical research identified. These results demonstrate the need to diagnose further reasons for differences between crop model simulations of CWP and promote wider incorporation of CO2 effects in global food and water resource assessments. 

Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

D. Deryng (University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom), D. Conway (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment,, London, United Kingdom), N. Ramankutty (LIU Institute for Global Issues and Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, Vancouver, Canada), J. Price (University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom), R. Warren (Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Global crop yield response to extreme heat stress under multiple climate change futures

D. Deryng (1) ; D. Conway (2) ; N. Ramankutty (3) ; J. Price (1) ; R. Warren (4)
(1) University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom; (2) Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change & the Environment,, London school of economics and political sciences, London, United Kingdom; (3) LIU Institute for Global Issues and Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of british columbia, Vancouver, Canada; (4) Tyndall Centre, University of East Anglia, Advanced research fellow at the tyndall centre, Norwich, United Kingdom

Abstract content

Extreme heat stress during the crop reproductive period can be critical for crop productivity. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climatic events are expected to negatively impact crop yields and global food production. This study applies the global crop model PEGASUS to quantify, for the first time at the global scale, impacts of extreme heat stress on maize, spring wheat and soybean yields resulting from 72 climate change scenarios for the 21st century. Our results project maize to face progressively worse impacts under a range of RCPs but spring wheat and soybean to improve globally through to the 2080s due to CO2 fertilization effects, even though parts of the tropic and sub-tropic regions could face substantial yield declines. We find extreme heat stress at anthesis (HSA) by the 2080s (relative to the 1980s) under RCP 8.5, taking into account CO2 fertilization effects, could double global losses of maize yield (ô°€Y = −12.8 ± 6.7% versus −7.0 ± 5.3% without HSA), reduce projected gains in spring wheat yield by half (ô°€Y = 34.3 ± 13.5% versus 72.0 ± 10.9% without HSA) and in soybean yield by a quarter (ô°€Y = 15.3 ± 26.5% versus 20.4 ± 22.1% without HSA). The range reflects uncertainty due to differences between climate model scenarios; soybean exhibits both positive and negative impacts, maize is generally negative and spring wheat generally positive. Furthermore, when assuming CO2 fertilization effects to be negligible, we observe drastic climate mitigation policy as in RCP 2.6 could avoid more than 80% of the global average yield losses otherwise expected by the 2080s under RCP 8.5. We show large disparities in climate impacts across regions and find extreme heat stress adversely affects major producing regions and lower income countries.

Exhibiting model elasticities to facilitate model intercomparison: an example with a simple land-use model

T. Brunelle (CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France)

Abstract details
Exhibiting model elasticities to facilitate model intercomparison: an example with a simple land-use model

T. Brunelle (1)
(1) CIRED, Nogent-sur-Marne, France

Abstract content

In the coming decades, agriculture is projected to experience both demand and supply shocks originating from climate change, growing food needs or increasing demand for bioenergy. This specific context prompts a need for numerical assessments to anticipate the economic and environmental consequences of possible futures. Studies, however, disagree in the extent and direction of the impact of shocks on agriculture. If some progress has been made to reduce the overall variability across models (Nelson et al., 2014), the nature of some discrepancies remains unclear.

 

To get at the root of these discrepancies, this study applies a simple methodology to explicit the yield, area and demand responses to price. These parameters picture the core mechanisms of models and are critical in estimating the impact of shocks on agriculture (Hertel, 2009).

 

We present here the results of this methodology for the NLU model (Souty et al. 2012). NLU is a partial equilibrium that simulates changes in agricultural intensification at the global level under various assumptions regarding biomass demand. In this model, yield and area elasticities are not parametrized, but are derived from a cost minimization program taking into account spatial biophysical constraints. We focus here on the supply side as the demand for biomass products is exogenous in our model and thus inelastic to price.

 

First, changes in yields and areas are computed in response to a +1% p.y. exogenous price shock to 2050. To facilitate the comparison with available econometric estimates, we undertake a similar analysis in the past. Elasticities are then calculated according to a range of food prices relative to those of inputs (land and fertilizer). We show that these functions sum up the core model dynamics and can facilitate the model diagnostic. Finally, we show how our results can be used for the assessment of a biofuel promotion policy.

Options for a sustainable food future and agricultural sector greenhouse gases mitigation

P. Dumas (CIRAD, Paris, France), T. Searchinger (WRI, Washington, DC, United States of America), S. Manceron (INRA, Paris, France), C. Le Mouël (INRA, Rennes, France)

Abstract details
Options for a sustainable food future and agricultural sector greenhouse gases mitigation

P. Dumas (1) ; T. Searchinger (2) ; S. Manceron (3) ; C. Le Mouël (4)
(1) CIRAD, Cired, Paris, France; (2) WRI, Washington, DC, United States of America; (3) INRA, Depe, Paris, France; (4) INRA, Smart, Rennes, France

Abstract content

By 2050, the agricultural sector should produce food to feed an increased and wealthier population, while reducing environmental impacts. In particular, conversion of natural ecosystems and greenhouse gas emissions are serious potential impacts of agricultural production.

 

To take up this challenge, many options exist for the agricultural sector. Some are on the supply side, such as increasing the efficiency of livestock production, increasing the efficiency in crop production inputs, or a sustainable increase of aquaculture. Others are on the demand side, such as changes in diets, reduction of losses and wastes or, more controversially, reduction in population increase. The overall consequences of those options on land-use and greenhouse gas emissions, especially when taken together, are not easy to assess in a transparent and consistent way.

 

To tackle this challenge, a simple balance model with detailed biophysical modules is developped to assess the consequences in term of greeenhouse gases emissions reductions of various options for the agricultural sector, under the constraint of feeding the world.

 

The reference year balances are based on FAOSTAT food commodity balances. Demand is set exogenously based on population and diets, trade is based on import dependence and export market shares, and loss coefficients are used. Transformation through livestock sectors and oil crops crushing allows to determine production, and, with exogenously set yields, land-use. In the reference case, yields and demands evolutions are based on FAO projections. Detailed modules of livestock, aquaculture, land-use change emissions, nitrogen cycle and rice methane emissions allow to determine transformation and emission coefficients, as well as the consequences of diverse options. The model integrates those informations at the global scale on several regions, allowing to assess in a transparent way the consequences of the options used together.

 

The methodology and the model results will be presented for change in livestock efficiency, rice methane emissions mitigation options, changes in diets and increases in nitrogen use efficiency.

Bayesian Inference for the Ricardian Model

B. Abidoye (University of Pretoria, Hatfield, Pretoria, France)

Abstract details
Bayesian Inference for the Ricardian Model

B. Abidoye (1)
(1) University of Pretoria, Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA). Agricultural Economics, Hatfield, Pretoria, France

Abstract content

The Ricardian model is one of the most widely used models to analyze the impact of climate change on agriculture. This paper seeks to empirically extend the model by showing how one can explore the relationship between temperature, rainfall and land values/farm net revenue via non-parametric approach and characterizing model uncertainty on the impact of variables such as soil fertility measurement and water flow on net farm revenue. We use our derived methodology to investigate the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa using an 11-country survey of over 9000 farmers administered as part of a Global Environment Facility (GEF) project. We find that the relationship between rainfall and farm net revenue exhibits some nonlinearities in Africa but not that strong for temperature. Climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) is also carried out.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector is important to assess vulnerability of an economy to climate change and feeds into planning decisions. Current and future impacts on agriculture, magnitude of the impact and distribution of the impact are important questions that needs to be answered for effective planning and policy. Traditional models of crop agriculture such as crop-growth simulation models, agronomic economic models and integrated assessment models are based mainly on climate-crop physiology and development models' parameters that are generated from experimental research. They are typically calibrated into field situations using daily crop development responses to a combination of climate and weather variables and input factors such as soil, water and fertilizer. These models can handle some adaptation and crop management responses through variety selection, incorporating fertilizer use as an adaptation response or changing planting dates.  While these adaptation measures can be interesting, they do not adequately capture farmer behavior in reality. We are more interested in models that incorporates farmer's responses to economic factors such as prices (substitution of inputs based on prices) and the ability of farmers to switch crops and plant multiple crops based on responses to climate.

The contribution of this paper is in presenting the Ricardian Model in a Bayesian framework, that relaxes the assumption of linear relationship between climate and agricultural performance through the use of semi-parametric approach and also characterizes model uncertainty in the choice of variables to be included in the model by integrating the variable selection process into the Ricardian model estimation that reflects the uncertainty surrounding the ”correct” specification which becomes valuable for predicting the impact of climate change on agriculture. Specifically, we will describe a Bayesian posterior simulator that combines the literature on semi-parametric estimation, Bayesian variable selection and data augmentation. Our underlying mod- eling framework is the same as the Ricardian model. However, the Gibbs sampler algorithm builds upon the simulator in Koop and Poirier (2004) and incorporates the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) method described in George and McCulloch (1993) to determine the posterior probability that climate and soil characteristics have an influence on agricultural productivity. As in Abidoye and Herriges (2013), we will argue that the model incorporating SSVS presents a form of Bayesian model averaging integrating competing models into a single structure that can be more valuable in predicting the impact of climate change under different climate scenarios. The model is applied using data from a survey of over 9000 farmers administered as part of a Global Environment Facility (GEF) project in 11 African countries in 2003. 

Optimal groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture in the littoral North of Senegal under climate uncertainty, implications on irrigation water availability

A. Faye (Senegalese Institute of Agricultural Research (ISRA), Dakar, Senegal), M. Siwa (International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, United States of America)

Abstract details
Optimal groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture in the littoral North of Senegal under climate uncertainty, implications on irrigation water availability

A. Faye (1) ; M. Siwa (2)
(1) Senegalese Institute of Agricultural Research (ISRA), Bureau d'analyses macro-économiques, Dakar, Senegal; (2) International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Environment and production technology division, Washington, DC, United States of America

Abstract content

Recent studies on climate change in West Africa showed climate vulnerability of the agricultural sector in Senegal with future increase of temperatures and variable rainfall patterns (McSweeney et al., 2010; Jalloh et al, 2013). Climate perturbations will probably have an impact on Senegalese agricultural production and farmers' livelihood.

To date, climate related research has mostly focused on rainfed crops specifically cereals and legumes in Senegal (Jalloh et al., 2013; Sène et al., 2006). Irrigated agriculture particularly horticultural crops mostly grown in the littoral north called Niayes, where at least 40% of Senegalese horticultural products are produced, have attracted less attention in terms of climate change or variability studies. In the Niayes, research have been focusing on how climate affects the aquifer recharge and they generally point out the negative effect of climate on aquifer recharge and depth (Aguiar, 2010; DaSylva, 2005, 2009; etc.).

Farmers grow irrigated crops during the dry season from October to June and use exclusively groundwater resource for irrigation needs. Groundwater is also used by other actors like industries, the Senegalese water company, municipalities, and rural populations. As research has shown, climate variability combined with anthropic action may threaten water availability for irrigation and other uses.

In this paper, we evaluate the optimal patterns of groundwater extraction for irrigation under climate uncertainty, and the potential gains from improved groundwater management. We establish a baseline for economic efficiency in resource management, by solving an optimization problem which captures the social planner’s decision-making problem under uncertainty and limited foresight. We construct a stochastic dynamic programming model of resource management to maximize the sum of current benefits together with the net present value of future benefits from groundwater extraction for irrigation – which also takes into account groundwater extraction for other usages and the stochastic levels of rainfall that affect aquifer recharge. Results from this forward-looking optimization problem are compared to the myopic optimization behavior that farmers might typically display, under different climate states (normal, wet and dry), in order to assess the gains from improved resource management.

We use an agricultural production model that is calibrated to data from this part of Senegal, using the Positive Mathematical Programming approach of Howitt (1995), and taking into account the costs of water extraction. We use the outputs of the agricultural production model to estimate the demand for water within the agricultural sector, and characterize the climate conditions with data on precipitation from the National agency of meteorology. Last but not least, the data on hydrological aspects are drawn from the literature (Gaye, 1990; Faye, 1995; El Faid, 1999; Tine, 2004; DGPRE, 2005, 2009) and the direction of management and planning of water resources (DGPRE) of Senegal.

Our results illustrate the value of improved groundwater management in the horticultural sector of Niayes, and suggest the importance of including resource management in the plans for adaptation of agriculture to climate change for this region of Senegal.

Climate Sensitivity of Rice Yields: An Agro Climatic Zone Analysis in Andhra Pradesh, India

S. R. Padakandla (Centre for Economic and Social Studies, Hyderabad, India)

Abstract details
Climate Sensitivity of Rice Yields: An Agro Climatic Zone Analysis in Andhra Pradesh, India

SR. Padakandla (1)
(1) Centre for Economic and Social Studies, Division for Sustainable Development Studies, Hyderabad, India

Abstract content

Observational data confirm that there have been significant regional variations in climate change patterns across India. This paper examines the effect of rainfall and temperature on rice yields of different climatic zones in Andhra Pradesh using district level panel data from 1981-2010. Analysis of data shows that the degree of impact of climate on yield of rice is varied across different climatic zones. Climatic zones which have traditionally higher temperature and less rainfall are more susceptible to variations in climate. Similarly impact of irrigation is more significant in traditionally drier zones than others. 

Planning for the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Focus on Cities

K. Haddadimoghaddam (International Sturgeon Research Institute, City:Rasht , Province:Guilan, Islamic Republic of Iran)

Abstract details
Planning for the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Focus on Cities

K. Haddadimoghaddam (1)
(1) International Sturgeon Research Institute, Marine Ecology, City:Rasht , Province:Guilan, Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract content

Cities are faced with the task of planning for the present and future growth needs of their citizens. Climate change places pressure on cities ranging from rural to urban migration causing increased demands for housing, to physical changes from flooding and heat waves that challenges the ability to plan. Research and practice have demonstrated the capacity of cities to address the economic and physical impacts of climate change. Less understood is how cities can address the impacts of climate change on human health and well-being; which ranges from death and injury caused by extreme temperatures and weather events, to malnutrition caused by drought. Cities have role in reducing the impacts on human health and well-being. In the 1980s, the Healthy Cities movement aimed to make cities supportive of human health but success was inhibited by a lack of coherence. However, the core ideas of cities: developing action strategies to promote health, being centers for human action, and having an unmatched potential for producing healthy human beings hold today. The challenge for cities now is identifying the causal relationships between human health and climate change; for which there are many. Thus it is the objective of the research that is to be undertaken to conduct a critical analysis of the policy actions of cities in their efforts to address the impacts of climate change on human health through policies and plans.

Urbanization, Climate Change & Human Health A Study on Four Megacities of Urban India

J. Basu (West Bengal State University, Kolkata, West Bengal , India)

Abstract details
Urbanization, Climate Change & Human Health A Study on Four Megacities of Urban India

J. Basu (1)
(1) West Bengal State University, Economics, Kolkata, West Bengal , India

Abstract content

The World Bank in 2002 reported that in poor countries as much as 80 per cent of future economic growth occurred in cities and 60 percent of the world's population will be residing in cities by 2030. The increase in the average temperatures in the megacities in India is accompanied by the increase in population. The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has focused that by 2100 the global temperature would increase by 1.8 °C–4 °C and which has effect on increased heat-related mortality and morbidity and greater frequency of infectious diseases like diarrhea, cholera and other bacterial diseases. The paper attempts to address the impact of precipitation in relation to human mortality pattern in India and the distribution of disease vectors like malaria, dengue and diarrhea diseases at the four megacities like Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai of India.  In addition, the paper also attempts to establish the impact of urbanization on climatic variables like temperature and rainfall. The objectives of the paper are four fold. First, is to examine trends in summer temperature, monsoon temperature, post monsoon temperature and winter temperature at four megacities like Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Chennai of India. Second, is to examine the impact of precipitation on the disease vector like malaria in India. Third, is to examine how climate change affects the distribution of disease vectors in the four megacities of India. Fourth, is to establish the relationship between urbanization and temperature change at four mega cities of India. 

The paper utilizes time series data on temperature and precipitation, number of malaria deaths from the various reports of Indian Metrological Department for period 1978 - 2008. The analysis of trends in temperature at four largest cities is based on data for the period 1901- 1991.  Regression analysis is done to estimate the effects of precipitation on malaria cases.  As the data set comprises time series in nature, before doing regression analysis we have applied unit root test and the Augmented Dickey Fuller test (ADF test) is employed for this purpose. After conforming the data are stationary we have applied regression analysis to show the impact of precipitation on malaria death.

In the univariate case, it is possible to view the stationarity of { Yt } as being dependent on the magnitude (a1-1), that is,

Yt = a 1 Y t-1 + ε t   -------------- (1)

Δ Yt  = γ Y t-1  + ε t    Where  γ =  a 1  - 1  ----------------(2)

In the presence of trend of drift the Dickey and Fuller equation can be written as

   Δ Yt  = a 0 +  γ Y t-1  + a 2 t +  ε t   -----------------------(3)

where a 0  and a 2 t represent the drift and time trend component respectively.

 The result of the unit root test shows that death due to malaria (MDt) and precipitation (Rt) are stationary at the first difference. After checking stationary test we have regressed death due to malaria on precipitation.

 The regression equation is given below

Log Kt  = b Log Z t

Where Kt = Log MDt - Log MD t-1

Zt = Log Rt - Log R t-1

The result shows that there is a positive and significant relation between precipitation and death rate due to malaria. The higher is the precipitation and higher is the death rate due to malaria.  Most of the trends showed positive change in temperature with different rates in different seasons. In some cases, the trends showed asymmetry. The results of the impact of urbanization on temperature revealed that there is a positive relation between the increase in temperature change and the increase in population change on the annual scale. But on seasonal scale this is applicable for monsoon, post-monsoon and winter season and not for summer season. The paper has important policy implication for improving water quality. 

 

 

Evolution of surface UV radiation in relation to ozone depletion and climate change

S. Godin Beekmann (CNRS, Guyancourt, France), M. De Paula Correa (Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Itajubà, Brazil), E. Mahé, (Centre Hospitalier Victor Dupouy, Argenteuil, France)

Abstract details
Evolution of surface UV radiation in relation to ozone depletion and climate change

S. Godin Beekmann (1) ; M. De Paula Correa (2) ; E. Mahé, (3)
(1) CNRS, IPSL/LATMOS, Guyancourt, France; (2) Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Instituto de recursos naturais (natural resources institute), Itajubà, Brazil; (3) Centre Hospitalier Victor Dupouy, Departement de dermatologie, Argenteuil, France

Abstract content

Exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation is known to be a risk factor for several diseases such as skin cancers and cataracts. On the other hand, a number of studies have described the benefits of UV exposure in relation to the synthesis of vitamin D and prevention of several diseases. The evolution of surface UV radiation has been under scrutiny in the last decades due to the discovery of ozone depletion in the middle atmosphere. Atmospheric ozone is the main atmospheric absorber of UV-B radiation (280 – 320 nm spectral range) and its depletion has raised concerns about the protection of human populations, living organisms and ecosystems against dangerous UV radiation. The rapid understanding in the 1980s of the main processes involved in stratospheric ozone destruction, which incriminated halogen substances emitted by human activities, led to the regulation of the emission of these ozone-depleting substances (ODS). Since then, ODS abundances have continued to increase up to the mid or end of the nineties, depending on latitude, and have now started to decrease slowly. As a consequence, the ozone layer has stabilized and shows signs of recovery. While the decrease of ODS content is expected to be the dominant cause of the future long-term evolution of stratospheric ozone, climate change effects and natural variability of the atmosphere still hinder the unambiguous detection of the recovery expected from ODS decrease.

Chemistry-Climate models indicate that minimum levels of stratospheric ozone have been reached in the early 21st century. The recovery of the ozone layer is forecasted in a period ranging between 2015 and 2030 in the northern hemisphere and between 2030 and 2040 in the southern hemisphere, with a disappearance of the Antarctic ozone hole after 2050. Due to climate change induced effects on transport processes and temperature climatology in the middle atmosphere, models simulate a super-recovery of ozone in the polar and mid-latitude regions and an under recovery in the tropics. The future evolution of ozone will thus have an impact on surface UV at global scale and on the health related UV doses.

This presentation will review the latest results on the past and future long-term evolution of global ozone and surface UV. Projected changes in clear-sky erythemal and vitamin D effective UV doses for Europe over the period 2006 to 2100, based on CMIP5 simulation of total ozone and aerosols will also be presented.

Scalling heat-mortality relationships recorded in cities to the global scale

L. Krummenauer, (PIK, Potsdam, Germany), L. Costa, (PIK, Potsdam, Germany), A. Holsten, (PIK, Potsdam, Germany), J. Kropp, (PIK, Potsdam, Germany)

Abstract details
Scalling heat-mortality relationships recorded in cities to the global scale

L. Krummenauer, (1) ; L. Costa, (1) ; A. Holsten, (1) ; J. Kropp, (1)
(1) PIK, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract content

A large number of epidemiologic studies relating air temperature and mortality in cities have been conducted but they findings not generalized to continental scales. The studies usually culminate with the determination of a threshold-mortality temperature (TMTs), that is, a temperature value beyond which recorded mortality in a city deviates from the normal expected.

 

In this work we have compiled and homogenized threshold-mortality temperatures (TMTs) found in peer-reviewed literature for circa 90 cities worldwide. The chosen unit for homogenization was mean apparent temperature, since it is a composite measure of temperature and humidity. A multivariate linear regression between TMT's and a set of 12 independent variables was preformed. The set included several measures of the climatologic features of a city, as well as physical urban features city density, size and fraction of urban spaces. The linear regression exercise returned 30-year mean amplitude and 30-year average temperature as the best explanatory variables (adjusted R2 = 0.66). Results point therefore for a significant role of climate alone in shaping the ability of urban population in sustaining heat-stress, while the remaining variability is likely attributed to factors such as demographics or health care standards.

 

In order to reflect the existence of a physiologic limit for temperature, a sigmoid function (S-shape curve) was fitted to the TMT's using the same set of independent variables as for the case of the linear regression. 30-year mean of the hottest month returned the fit with the lowest residual standard error. The saturation value for the sigmoid function, that is, an approximation of the physiological limit (or adaptability limit), was set and 45 degrees, in reflection to the upper limit of temperatures recorded at permanently habitable regions in the world and further evidences from literature. The robustness of the sigmoid function was tested for subsets of TMT's from different climatic zones. The fit preformed best at sub-tropical-wet climates, and worst at humid-continental climates. Climate projections of temperature were superimposed with the results of the sigmoid fit in order to highlight the regions where the largest deviation from air temperature to TMT's are expected. In particular, the function allows for the exploration of several "adaptability" scenarios by varying the speed with which a region can "move" along the fit function.

 

There is still a considerable amount of variance in TMTs not captured by our approach but we have successfully captured the role of climate in shaping the adaptive capacity of the urban population. We also moved closer into bridging the persistent gap between research undertaken at the case-study and the need for global generalizations of results. Finally, following the proposed function, first order approximations of  TMT's can be made for regions where temperature-mortality studies are absent.

Climate change effects on the erythemal and vitamin D weighted UV daily doses in South America and Antartica: Impacts on the health of populations

M. De Paula Correa (Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Itajubà, Brazil), G. Moraes (Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Itajubà, Brazil), S. Godin Beekmann (CNRS, Guyancourt, France), E. Mahé, (Centre Hospitalier Victor Dupouy, Argenteuil, France)

Abstract details
Climate change effects on the erythemal and vitamin D weighted UV daily doses in South America and Antartica: Impacts on the health of populations

M. De Paula Correa (1) ; G. Moraes (1) ; S. Godin Beekmann (2) ; E. Mahé, (3)
(1) Universidade Federal de Itajubá (Federal University of Itajubá), Instituto de recursos naturais (natural resources institute), Itajubà, Brazil; (2) CNRS, IPSL/LATMOS, Guyancourt, France; (3) Centre Hospitalier Victor Dupouy, Departement de dermatologie, Argenteuil, France

Abstract content

Recent studies show that the ozone layer will be recovered until 2050. This is a significant result of the Montreal Protocol which points out the success of this environment protection agreement. However, climate change projections show that the total ozone content will have a relevant increase until the end of this century, mainly at higher latitudes. On one hand, this increase can reduce the adverse effects of UV radiation overexposure. On the other hand, the decrease of UV availability at the surface can reduce the synthesis of vitamin D among the inhabitants of these regions. In this study, we provide erythemal (DoseE) and vitamin D (DoseD) weighted UV daily doses estimates for ten different sites of South America and Antartica. Our calculations are based on the ozone forecasts provided by four climate models reported on the last IPCC report. Unlike previous works, our study evaluates the impact on the daily dose of radiation received. Thus, these results can be used as an important tool for the health studies on the excess or lack of sun exposure. The first results show significant UV attenuation at Southern sites.  At 30°S, DoseE and DoseD can be reduced between 5 and 7%, respectively, until the end of this century if the anthropogenic emissions continue to rise throughout the time. At 50°S, these reductions increase to 12 and 21%, respectively; and, in Antartica they will possibly exceed 15 and 30%, respectively. We did not observe significant variations at the equatorial sites. In this talk we also discuss the impact of these UV availability reductions on the population’s healt

Seasonal Variations in Emergency Department Visits of Schizophrenic Patients in Sofia, Bulgaria

Z. Spasova (National Center of Public Health and Analyses, Sofia, France)

Abstract details
Seasonal Variations in Emergency Department Visits of Schizophrenic Patients in Sofia, Bulgaria

Z. Spasova (1)
(1) National Center of Public Health and Analyses, Health Policies Analyses, Sofia, Bulgaria

Abstract content

Climate change is making hot summer days hotter and stretching their numbers into heat waves. And the heat is causing more than just discomfort - as temperatures rise, so are the number of illnesses, emergency room visits, and deaths. Among the risk groups are young children and elderly people, people with chronically diseases especially of the cardiovascular and respiratory system, the poor, people who are working at open environment and those living in big cities where the effect of “heat island” makes the heat waves more severe.

It’s little studied the effect of hot weather and the effect of the season on people with mental disorders and specifically schizophrenia (as one of the mostly common and severe mental disorders). Schizophrenia is characterized by enormous societal and economic costs due to the extensive therapeutic care and loss of economic productivity, as well as personal suffering and stigma which often affect the patient and his/her family for most of the patient’s life. As for schizophrenia patients, there is still no cure, the research of etiologic factors, particularly environmental ones that could be avoided and used in effective prevention programs, is essential.

Many studies have demonstrated evidence of seasonal patterns in the incidence of psychotic disorders, and schizophrenia in particular. It is known since the time of Esquirol (1838) that the number of patients admitted in mental hospitals increases in summer months and decreases in winter. Most of the studies for seasonal distribution of hospital admissions in schizophrenia also report summer peaks, some of these for female patients only. With respect to the factors responsible for the summer excess of admissions, Myers and Davies have suggested a rise in ambient temperature; Parker and Walter, the increasing luminance; and Carney et al., the length of day. Social factors, such as summer holidays, “are unlikely to have an effect” (Takei et al.).

While the problem of seasonal admissions of patients with schizophrenia has been widely discussed in Western Europe, America and Australia, in Eastern Europe it has been neglected. We are not aware of any published research on this subject in Bulgaria, which makes the present study important as a contribution to the scientific literature on the problem in the country and in the South East Europe region. Its findings could also raise the awareness of the problem of health care management for psychiatric patients in SEE countries besides Bulgaria.

The purpose of this study was to reveal the seasonal distribution of emergency department visits of schizophrenic patients in Sofia, Bulgaria.

We collected daily data for visits of patients with schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders in the emergency center of the regional dispenser for mental disorders in the city of Sofia for the period 1998-2003. The total number of emergency visits was 5723 (mean daily visits: 5.04±2.4). T-test was used to compare the monthly and seasonal distribution of visits.

The season with the highest levels of emergency visits was summer, and the lowest levels were observed in winter (P<0.0001). Spring and autumn had intermediate values close to the mean value, and significantly differentiated from winter values. The month with the highest admission rates was September, followed by May and the three summer’s months. The lowest levels were observed in December, October and January, with statistically significant differences observed between the values of all the three months. Differences between July values compared with December and October values were significant, but not with January values.

The study showed significant seasonal and monthly differences in emergency schizophre-nics’ visits. The data confirm the outcome of similar studies conducted in countries with temperate climate in the Northern Hemisphere. The results are particularly relevant against the backdrop of rising ambient temperatures and the tendency of increasing of the frequency of heat waves, observed in recent decades in Bulgaria. These results could prove useful for psychiatrists, public health specialists, and governmental authorities dealing with team planning and prevention programs in the field of public health.

Assessment of the impact of La Niña phenomenon over the infrastructure of transport in Santander-Colombia

J. Gutierrez (Universidad de Santander, Bucaramanga, Colombia)

Abstract details
Assessment of the impact of La Niña phenomenon over the infrastructure of transport in Santander-Colombia

J. Gutierrez (1)
(1) Universidad de Santander, Environmental Engineering, Bucaramanga, Colombia

Abstract content

Extreme meteorological events associated with climate change are a real issue and have important impact over the economy of infrastructure sector, including high ways, hydrocarbon transport by pipelines, mines, etc., because saturation of soils by water can produce landslides and it could produce the fracture of pipelines or other kind of tangible assets. For example, an assessment of historical geotechnical failures in Ecopetrol (Colombian Oil Company) vs. extreme meteorological events shows that during La Niña (extreme rainfall period) geotechnical failures are three times greater. This work shows a method to identify places of risk by extreme meteorological events, mainly La Niña phenomenon, with focus in most probably alteration of rainfall. Our results illustrate the hot spots where there is a high probability of slight excess (120-160% of average rainfall) and high excess (>160%) of average rainfall. The results have been intersected in a GIS whit pipelines and highways with mass movement risk maps to identify the places of high risk along Santander region Colombia.

A Study on Climate Change Impacts Adaptation Measures for the Hilly Road construction: Case of Nepal

N. Pokharel (Tribhuvan University, Lalitpur, France)

Abstract details
A Study on Climate Change Impacts Adaptation Measures for the Hilly Road construction: Case of Nepal

N. Pokharel (1)
(1) Tribhuvan University, Environmental Science, Lalitpur, France

Abstract content

Nepal encompasses 85% of its land as hilly and mountainous area. Out of total 80,000 km road construction within the country only 18000km is with blacktopped. The steep slopes with fragile geology are the characteristics of the hilly region. Geologically Nepal lies on Himalayan area with the mobility of Tibetian and Indian Plate. So the vulnerability seems higher. The Impacts of climate change focused on water resource. The Himalayas towers are the source of rivers and rivulets in the country. 6000 rivers and rivulets are flowing from north to south up to Gangas River in India.  The road and transportation sector requires to cross the rivers and return periods for the floods and extreme rainfall. The trend of extreme events seems changing. To cope with such events and impacts it requires some techniques. The Climate change may cause more flooding of roads, bridges and airport runways, especially in low land areas as a result of erratic rains. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, increased redundancy of critical services, and operational improvements. Roads, bridges, tunnels and railway lines will be vulnerable to increased precipitation, groundwater levels, temperatures and winds.

 The road transport sector is a key area that contributes to climate change by way of greenhouse gas emissions. However, the transport sector is in turn itself affected by climate change. Higher groundwater levels associated with extreme precipitation will mean an increased risk of landslides on excavated slopes. There is a risk that the bearing capacity of bridge and tunnel foundations, supporting walls and sheet pilings will be reduced by increased groundwater levels. This can be found in number of ways, especially for foundations on sand. Modern safety installations are significantly more sensitive to temperature increases than older installations and this may presents a particular problem. Autonomous adaptation to climate change is important because of the complexity and long lifetime of road. Furthermore, improved maintenance in the form of cleaning existing road drainage systems can retain drainage capacity corresponding to that of a new installation.

Whilst, transport systems and infrastructure designed to withstand typical weather patterns, climate change impacts arising in the near and longer-term can have an impact on the efficiency of transport operations and ability of infrastructure to withstand extreme events.

The designs of project road have been done considering the potential effects of climate change. From a road development perspective in Nepal, impact of climate change mainly takes the form of concentrated high rainfall resulting in the accelerated surface run-off from slopes and increased flows in gullies, drainage channels, streams, and rivers. These phenomena have a consequent effect on the stability and performance of road sections, bridges, and other structures.

 

Key Words: Climate Change, Adaptation, Transportation and Road, Extreme Events etc.

Challenges and Opportunities in Climate Change Adaptation of Coastal Cities: Lessons in the Adaptation Road Maps of Metro Manila and Singapore

P.M. Paje (University of Asia and the Pacific, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines)

Abstract details
Challenges and Opportunities in Climate Change Adaptation of Coastal Cities: Lessons in the Adaptation Road Maps of Metro Manila and Singapore

PM. Paje (1)
(1) University of Asia and the Pacific, Asia-Pacific Studies, Pasig City, Metro Manila, Philippines

Abstract content

The Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities (2011) published by the World Bank considers a city resilient if it is able to respond quickly and effectively to climate change impacts. The same guide contends that a resilient city’s adaptation strategies should be integrated into its own disaster risk reduction and sustainable development policies. To get the public engaged and committed to embrace the concept of adaptation however is fraught with difficulty. As Coleman, Offenheiser, and Waskow (2009) argue in the book Climate Change and Global Poverty: A Billion Lives in the Balance, the concept of adaptation is a tough one to sell and remains something incomprehensible to the public. How can one convince people to segregate and recycle garbage when most people find it convenient to just put all things inside one garbage bag and throwing it anywhere? How can state policymakers promote that walking is both a healthy activity for both humans and the environment when they themselves don’t even take public transportation? How can environment advocates teach that air conditioning is a source of CFCs when people congregate to the malls to take advantage of free air conditioning to escape the perennial tropical heat?

 The road to climate change adaptation indeed is long and winding. Dessler and Parson (2010) consider climate change to go beyond the issue of the environment making it a serious and difficult matter to manage. But, as climate change poses inevitable challenges, it also offers opportunities in carbon trading through the Clean Development Mechanisms. This is the context that frames this policy analysis of the roadmaps of Metro Manila and Singapore in climate change adaptation towards their goals of becoming resilient cities in Southeast Asia. This analysis presents the challenges as well as the opportunities that these two coastal mega-cities in Southeast Asia have. The rate of a city’s expansion in terms of territory and population is directly proportional to the increase in the risks it could face against climate change impacts especially if city residents are clueless about what possible hazards they are faced with. The wrath of super typhoon Haiyan in 2013 mirrored in the storm surge devastation of Tacloban City in the Philippines has been a tragic remembrance of a worst-case scenario to date if and when the next bigger storm hits major metropolises. Most people in Tacloban prepared for the usual strong winds but overlooked the enormous storm surges that did the worst damage. As cities are in themselves complexes, coastal cities are in a more precarious situation considering the millions of lives and resources that can be affected by the rise in sea-level and the threat of storm surges.

 Adaptation of cities involves initiatives and measures whether formal or informal that leads to resilience against climate change impacts. Singapore is quite unique being an island city-state in itself. Metro Manila on the other hand is a microcosm of the nation-state it serves as a capital and major city. A glaring disparity exists between the two in terms of political regimes, economic and social development. In terms of climate change issues however, both cities have witnessed unusual flooding in the past five years. It is thus fitting in the context of climate change adaptation to examine the strategies that these coastal cities are undertaking how they address old environmental issues such as land use, energy conservation, and sustainable development to the emerging ones like E-waste disposals and Clean Development Mechanisms.

 

Adaptations of road infrastructures to climate change: a review of examples around the world

T. Dubreucq (Ifsttar, Nantes, France)

Abstract details
Adaptations of road infrastructures to climate change: a review of examples around the world

T. Dubreucq (1)
(1) Ifsttar, Departement for geotechnics, environment, natural hazards and earth sciences, Nantes, France

Abstract content

To adapt a road to a new climate affecting a country, it is first usefull to observe road adaptation measures in other countries with a similar climate. The World Road Association encourages geotechnical engineers to cooperate to identify which measures should be implemented to preserve the existing road networks and the precautions to design a road in new climate conditions. We illustrate below some specific actions of five countries: Australia, Mexico, Morocco, Malaysia and South Korea.

Unsealed roads account for most of the roads linear in the world. To ensure their durability in a context of climate change, it is necessary to imporve their maintenance. Australia has produced a guide for non-specialists, dealing with technical maintenance issues of unpaved roads. The guide proposes to use a wearing course instead of the traditionnal surface layer of paved roads. Precautionary measures are provided, such as speed limits, maximum loads, or use of barriers to prohibit traffic on a road during the drying period after a rainfall. It aslo explain how to quantify damages on unpaved roads with a measure of the dust produced by traffic. The life service of Australian unpaved roads is thus about twenty years if the quality of building materials is respected and if the periodic road maintenance is followed (every three months in wet weather).

To better face the degradation of unpaved roads after water floods, the Mexico Infrastructure Institute has tested new soil treatment products, mainly based on geopolymer but also o geosynthetics, on large-scale construction sites.

Southern Morocco faces an increasing silting of its road network. All forms of silting are encountered and decreases the road safety. The road network has been analysed and long-term actions have been decided. Unfortunately, this natural phenomenon is complex, non structurable and remains difficult to model and control.

Practices examples of road stormwater management in Malaysia are provided. Malaysia, a tropical country, receives up to 2.5 m of rainfall per year, mainly between November and February. The return period of rainfall for network design does not exceed ten years. The road drainage practices are based on the "Guidelines for the design of the road drainage" produced by the Department of Public Works and the Road Association of Malaysia. The guideline provides recommandations adapted to local conditions, developed from the analysis of numerous documents: AASHTO, British Standard, .... Malaysia has also dug in its capital Kuala Lumpur a 9.7 km tunnel - 13.2 m in diameter. The tunnel divided in two parts, with a highway pavement in its upper half and a channel in its lower half. During thunderstorms, the entire tunnel can be flooded to drain all the water from the city so far.

South Korea has established for all its highways a national risk map and defined the types of landslides encountered. Torrential rains can reach more than 110 mm per hour. Global warming seems to increase the intensity of rainfall and mudslides and rocks flows on the slopes. Each highway drainage system (hydraulic structure, surface sanitation, drainage slopes, drainage trenches) has a return period defined by the geography (mountains, plains rivers). A drainage class and a flow rate calculation mode are assigned to each portion of highway depending on the extent of the watershed. Drainage system are adopted. To prevent the solid thrust (blocks, uprooted trees), many dams have been built.

Is electric mobility a driver to climate mitigation in the EU-27 countries? Myths and realities from energy systems analysis

J. Seixas (Faculdade Ciencias e Tecnologia - Univ Nova de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal), L. Dias (Faculdade Ciencias e Tecnologia - Univ Nova de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal), S. Simões (Faculdade Ciencias e Tecnologia - Univ Nova de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal)

Abstract details
Is electric mobility a driver to climate mitigation in the EU-27 countries? Myths and realities from energy systems analysis

J. Seixas (1) ; L. Dias (1) ; S. Simões (1)
(1) Faculdade Ciencias e Tecnologia - Univ Nova de Lisboa, Caparica, Portugal

Abstract content

In many research and policy fora, electric vehicles (EV) are considered effective alternatives to passenger mobility due to their contribution to CO2 mitigation, when compared with internal combustion engines, mainly if the power comes from renewables. Recent research [1] showed that for an EU-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction cap of 40% and 70% by 2050 vis-à-vis 1990 emissions, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are cost-effective in the EU only by 2030 and only if their costs are 30% lower than currently expected. Vehicle costs and the capability to deliver both short- and long-distance mobility are the main drivers of BEV deployment. Other drivers include national mobility patterns and the cost-effectiveness of alternative mitigation options, both in the transport sector, such as plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) or biofuels, and in other sectors, such as renewable electricity.

A bottom-up partial equilibrium 36 multi-region model (PET36) representing these countries' energy systems linked through trade of the main energy forms was used. PET36 is driven by exogenous country-specific energy services demand, and it takes into consideration the evolution of energy prices, endogenous energy potentials and policy assumptions. Its main output is the cost-effectiveness mix of energy supply and demand technologies for the seven sectors: primary energy supply (e.g., oil and bio refineries, natural gas distribution pipelines), electricity and heat generation, industry, residential, commercial, agriculture and transport. This model allows us to get in-depth insights on the energy system transformation of each EU-27 country to deliver cost-effective BEVs for passenger mobilityup to 2050. We use two families of scenarios, shaped by varied EU level emission caps and BEVs cost curve.

Our presentation relies on results just published [1] and goes a step further, focusing on:

(a) confrontint the national plans of each EU country on EV adoption with current status (actual deployment) and the results from our analysis, aiming to discuss the expectations and failures of electric mobility deployment in each EU country and the current and future role of public policy to overcome current barriers and risks;

(b) assessing the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in each EU country due to adoption of BEVs and PHEVs taking into account the whole energy system, i.e., not only the shift from internal engine combustion to electric engines, but also the shift in the power sector and refineries. The goal is to discuss the impact of electric mobility policy measures on the transformation of energy system, including trade-offs, co-benefits, risks and feedbacks.

We argue that the energy system analysis used in this research is the appropriate approach to discuss the impact of mitigation policies. Across Europe, as well as in other regions, electric vehicles are seen, both by climate policy makers and car markets, as a panacea for the mitigation of a significant share (up to 40%) of greenhouse gas emissions. However, detailed analysis at EU member state level shows that the adoption of this technology is far from expectations due to vehicle costs, charging constraints and the mobility model still in place based on individual ownership. We argue that radical mitigation in Europe will rely in electric mobility (including trucks) but there is the need to look across the whole energy system, to prevent risks and undesired feedbacks (e.g. increase of new fossil based power plants) and to expand co-benefits (energy efficiency and foreign oil dependency). Policy initiatives must be designed to make EVs’ cost evolution cheaper for consumers than what is currently expected, while looking at risks of such pathway.

[1] Seixas,J., S.Simões, L.Dias, A.Kanudia, P.Fortes, M.Gargiulo (2015) Assessing the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles in EU countries using integrated modeling, Energy Policy, 80, 165–176.

Science-policy-stakeholder dialogues about Low Carbon Strategy in the Colombian Freight Transport Sector

A. Cadena (Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia), R. Delgado (Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia), M. Espinosa (Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia), C. Garcia (Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética, Bogotá, Colombia), C. Obando (Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética, Bogotá, Colombia), F. Marquez (Ministerio de Transporte de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia), J. M. Sandoval (Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia), R. Suarez (Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia)

Abstract details
Science-policy-stakeholder dialogues about Low Carbon Strategy in the Colombian Freight Transport Sector

A. Cadena (1) ; R. Delgado (1) ; M. Espinosa (1) ; C. Garcia (2) ; C. Obando (2) ; F. Marquez (3) ; JM. Sandoval (4) ; R. Suarez (4)
(1) Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia; (2) Unidad de Planeación Minero Energética, Bogotá, Colombia; (3) Ministerio de Transporte de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia; (4) Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible de Colombia, Bogotá, Colombia

Abstract content

Colombia as other southern countries has undertaken a serious process for the statement of national post 2020 mitigation scenarios. We have identified and evaluated a package of more than 100 mitigation options by estimating abatement potential and costs. We have proposed sectorial mitigation plans finally adopted by government. A delightful dialogue process has been undertaken with a wide participation of industry, academy and government in order to get appealing and engaging mitigation scenarios and targets. Mitigations Actions Plans were adopted by government ministries.

This process was conducted under the Colombian Low Carbon Development Strategy (CLCDS). The dialogue was part of the MAPS project (Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios), coordinated by SouthSouthNorth (SSN). Similar processes were adopted in the Long Term Mitigation Scenarios project in South Africa, as well as in the Low Carbon Strategies in Brazil, Chile, and Peru.

Commitments have been achieved in almost all sectors with modest but tangible results in agricultural, power end energy, and industry sectors.Transportation of passengers and freight have showed huge difficulties to decouple their growth from energy use and emissions.  Energy demand in Colombia was 1331 TJ in 2010 and transportation sector accounted for 38% of final energy demand. Total GHG emissions were 218 Mton CO2e and transportation sector accounted for 10,5% of total emissions.

Diesel and gasoline are the main fuels used in road transportation. Either fuels account for more than 85% of the total consumption in this sector. The National Energy Plans signals the importance of diversify the transportation basket (as well as the power generation one and the oil and gas sources). Due to national regulations, diesel and gasoline contain a percentage of biofuels (ethanol for gasoline and biodiesel for diesel). Compressed natural gas (CNG) was initially used only by public urban passenger transportation vehicles (taxi cabs and buses). In recent years there has been an increasing number of vehicle conversions (automobiles and small trucks) from gasoline to CNG due mainly to high oil prices. As a result, CNG consumption has increased. Right now the country has a huge availability of Liquefied Petroleum Gas and representatives of the industry are looking for opportunities to increase its participation in the transport business.

We discuss the following questions in this paper: Why Colombia should change its energy matrix in freight transportation?  How we succeed in introducing microLNG, GLP biofuels and electricity in the energy basket )? Could we introduce new vehicles and logistic technologies? Could Colombia made changes to river and rail transportation or any attempt will be defeated by stakeholders, reluctant to new technologies and sinked in the comfort of current affairs? How likely appear in the 2050 energy and emissions scenarios these changes? What barriers we have to overcome to get a more efficient transport of freight and finally a more productive economy? Which organizations and what regulations we need to achieve the cleaner and diversified 2050 scenarios?  

This kind of issue is culming the analytical corridors in planning offices in Colombian think tanks and research centers. Colombia changed its main fuel for freight transportation from gasoline to diesel, from 1985 until 2000, following the global trends. Colombia has tried to scrappage the old trucks. Colombia has tried to foster cleaner fuels. Colombia has tried to renewed train and river. Little effects out of this strategies. One less unsuccesful than others.

After measuring the benefits, co-benefits, implementation and transaction cost, sectorial and economy wide, we propose a bundle of recommendations to get the energy efficiency and mitigation goals we aimed to achieve. These recommendations are oriented to solve market coordination and government failures. â€‹

Urban and peri-urban forestry in the face of climate change in Cameroon: challenges and new perspectives for sustainability

G. H. Chekuimo (Centre for Research in Economics and Sustainable Development, Yaounde, Cameroon, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon)

Abstract details
Urban and peri-urban forestry in the face of climate change in Cameroon: challenges and new perspectives for sustainability

GH. Chekuimo (1)
(1) Centre for Research in Economics and Sustainable Development, Yaounde, Cameroon, Agriculture and Sustainable Development, Yaounde, Centre, Cameroon

Abstract content

Urban forestry is a relatively new, multidisciplinary approach in international forest research. Rapid urbanization and climate change raise several issues for those who are responsible for developing policies and making decisions at local, national and international levels. Urban trees provide a significant contribution to building resilient cities and improving health and well-being, such as through mitigating natural disasters, providing ecosystem services, reducing energy costs or increasing property values. However, urban and peri-urban forest ecosystems in Cameroon are steadily increasingly under pressure from their city populations. This study assessed the status of urban and peri-urban forestry, evaluated the effect of population growth on urban forests landscape and designed innovative strategies that will ensure sustainability and improvement of urban living environment. It was investigated through secondary data, field investigation, enquiries to relevant stakeholders, direct assessment and observations of urban and peri-urban forest landscapes in Cameroon. These analyses highlight the extreme diversity of environmental resources from urban forests in Cameroon. Rapid urban population growth, limited land area, and poor implementation of government policies are some factors affecting urban forests development and are responsible for vicious cycle of environmental degradation in urban areas in Cameroon. The results contribute elements for strategic and operational planning. Urban forestry management is an important strategy to improve urban living and working environments. There is a need to highlight successful strategies and actions concerning the management of urban and peri-urban forests. Involvement of all stakeholders and users in reflections and in the implementation of policies concerning the management of the urban and peri-urban forests should be adopted and advocated, to ensure sustainable development and to ensure that cities, trees and forests grow together to meet the needs of urbanized societies.

Tree-based energy for resilient livelihoods and ecosystems under climate change in Kenya

M. Njenga (ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya)

Abstract details
Tree-based energy for resilient livelihoods and ecosystems under climate change in Kenya

M. Njenga (1)
(1) ICRAF, Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract content

 

Kenya has a population of 39 million people with 68% of the population living in rural areas and half of her population lives below poverty line. Kenya has a land area of 580,728km out of which approximately 85% is arid and semi-arid land (ASAL) and support 30% of the population and 70% of the livestock production. Agriculture is the backbone of the Kenyan economy directly contributing 24% of the GDP valued at KSh342 billion in 2009 and another 27% indirectly, valued at KSsh.385 billion. The country is experiencing climate-related impacts such as prolonged droughts, frost in some of the productive agricultural areas, hailstorms, extreme flooding, receding lake levels, drying of rivers and other wetlands, leading to economic losses and environmental degradation. For instance the floods of 1997/98 affected 1 million people and cost the economy US$ 0.8-1.2 billion.

 

Trees provide various ecosystem services that build resilient social-ecological systems through (i) providing biological products such as fruit, browse for livestock, medicines for human and livestock, oils, construction materials, woodfuel and gums and resins, (ii) supporting services of soil fertility management, soil moisture and biodiversity, (iii) regulating services on macro and micro climate,  air quality, soil erosion and water regulation and (iv) cultural services. The loss of trees under climate change is of great concern to the country which has retained only 2% forest cover.

 

One of the drivers of tree loss is the unsustainable woodfuel sector.  Over 80% of households in rural areas and 70% of households nationally depend on firewood. Charcoal ranks second as a source of cooking energy in Kenya and is used by 82% of urban and 34% of rural households; and most of it comes from the drylands. Trees on-farm provides cooking energy hence saving women and girl’s time and drudgery in traveling long distances in search of firewood and reduces household expenditure. Recycling organic by-products into briquettes generate income and employment for women and youth and the product burns cleaner and longer. Improved cook stoves generate income from sales of stove, save fuel and time, reduce emissions and some produce charcoal as by-product. As such scaling-up the following  local innovations will reinforce resilient livelihoods and ecosystems through tree-based energy; (i) wood energy production through short rotational forestry, farmer managed natural regeneration, coppice management, intercropping trees with crops or pasture, (ii) briquetting agricultural, tree and municipal organic by-products, (iii) improved cooking technologies (iv) large-scale gasification of biomass, for instance of invasive tree/shrub species, for electricity production and briquetting of by-product -charcoal dust and (v) policy framework that supports and creates awareness on growing of trees for energy and resilient livelihoods and ecosystems and regulate tree-based energy trade.

 

Key words: Woodfuel, households, cleaner cooking fuel, improved cooking technologies

A Community based initiative of afforestation for charcoal production: Case study Siaya County, Kenya

N. Oduor (Kenya Forestry Research Institute, Nairobi , Kenya)

Abstract details
A Community based initiative of afforestation for charcoal production: Case study Siaya County, Kenya

N. Oduor (1) ; J. Maua, (2)
(1) Kenya Forestry Research Institute, Forest Products Research Centre, Nairobi , Kenya; (2) Kenya Forestry Research Institute, Kakamega sub-centre, Kakamega, Kenya

Abstract content

It is estimated in Kenya that about 90% of rural households use fuelwood either as firewood or charcoal with firewood meeting the energy needs of over 93% of rural household, and the charcoal being the dominant fuel in urban households. Besides being the most common cooking fuel for the majority of Kenyan households, fuelwood is also an important energy source for small-scale rural industries such as tobacco curing, tea drying, brick making, fish smoking, and bakeries, amongst others. The principal sources of fuelwood are agro-forestry (84%), biomass in trust lands (8%) and gazetted forests (8%).  Kenya is a relatively dry country, with approximately 80% of total land area defined as arid and semi-arid.  The current status of much dry land forest resources is the direct result of wasteful practices and degradation, from overgrazing, overexploitation of trees for the acquisition of firewood and charcoal particularly in the close vicinity of towns and refugee camps.

 

Currently, there is a growing imbalance between supply and demand of biomass energy. In 2012, the firewood and charcoal demand stood at 18,702,748m3 and 16,325,810m3 respectively against an estimated supply of 13,654,022m3 and 7,358,717m3.  The principal drivers of biomass energy demand are population growth, lack of access to energy substitutes and the growing incidence of poverty among Kenyans.  This biomass energy supply and demand imbalance is exerting considerable pressure on the remaining forest and vegetation stocks, thereby accelerating the processes of land degradation and desertification. In addition, the production of biomass energy poses a threat to competing land use systems such as agriculture, forestry and human settlements.

 

Initiatives of reforestation and afforestation are being carried out to mitigate this deficit, mitigate the effects of climate change and to raise the total land area in Kenya under forest to 10%. This paper gives the experiences of a community afforestation project in Siaya County that was started in 2002 using Acacia xanthophloea and A. Polyacantha species.  Research was carried out on the optimal tree spacing, wood yields, efficient production of charcoal and the optimal age for charcoaling.  Spacing trials of 1m X 1m; 1.8m X 1.8m; 2m X 2m; 2.5m X 2.5m, 3m X 3m up to 4m X 2m and 4.5m X 1m were set up.  Three efficient charcoal kilns were used (half orange kiln, drum kiln and Casamance kiln) and lastly the optimal age for charcoaling was determined by charcoaling the two Acacia species aged 4 and 6 years old. 

 

The optimal tree spacing (where it allowed selective harvesting – not clear felling) was 2.5m X 2.5m. The total biomass estimation based on diameter and height was calculated as Y= 0.0006x where x is (dbh2 * ht), R2 =0.8374.  The optimal age was found to be six years, where the weight of the same volume of charcoal increased by 10kg.

The current estimated area of land under acacia is 240 hectares with an estimated yield of 100 tons of round wood or 30 tons of charcoal per hectare under six years rotation.   The number of farmers who have set aside land sizes ranging from 0.5 – 3 acres (0.21 – 1.25 Ha) for wood lots, now stand at 545. 

 

 

Three decades of changes in stream communities of France reveal ecosystem shifts and resilience mechanisms in temperate region freshwater ecosystems

K. Van Looy (Irstea Lyon, Lyon-Villeurbanne, France), M. Floury (Irstea Lyon, Lyon-Villeurbanne, France), M. Ferréol, (Irstea Lyon, Lyon-Villeurbanne, France), J. Piffady, (Irstea Lyon, Lyon-Villeurbanne, France), Y. Souchon, (Irstea Lyon, Lyon-Villeurbanne, France)

Abstract details
Three decades of changes in stream communities of France reveal ecosystem shifts and resilience mechanisms in temperate region freshwater ecosystems

K. Van Looy (1) ; M. Floury (1) ; M. Ferréol, (1) ; J. Piffady, (1) ; Y. Souchon, (1)
(1) Irstea Lyon, Milieux Aquatiques Lyon, labo hydroécologie quantitative MALY, LHQ, Lyon-Villeurbanne, France

Abstract content

Global warming is assumed to be a threat to temperate stream biodiversity. Still, many of the processes and mechanisms behind the predicted threats to diversity remain uncertain. We identified current trends and drivers of change for freshwater communities over a large spatial and temporal scale already revealing a strong ecosystem shift.

We analysed diversity and composition shifts in stream invertebrates communities during the last three decades in relation to geographic elements and human stressors over the French river network (circa 1000 km in longitude and latitude). We observed a 42% increase in the taxonomic richness of stream invertebrate communities, largely caused by climate change (23% purely climate-induced taxonomic richness increase). As a local mechanism, a bottom-up food web productivity response to rising temperature was responsible for this strong increase in diversity. Stochastic assembly processes (both environmental stochasticity and dispersal related stochasticity) increased the regional scale diversity, giving spatial insurance to biodiversity and lowering the risks of biotic homogenisation.

Thus, stream invertebrate communities show strong resilience to environmental changes thanks to local and regional responses of productivity changes (resource resilience), and thanks to landscape heterogeneity (refugia resilience) and dispersal processes (recruitment resilience). For the French stream invertebrate communities, up to now the resilience mechanisms seem to outweigh the predicted threats. From this knowledge emerge scenarios that enhance the temperate streams’ resilience to cope with further global changes.

Climate vulnerability of the supply chain: methodological review

A. Valeria (Liverpool Hope University, Liverpool, United Kingdom), A. Miola (EU Joint Research Center Institute for Environment and Sustainability, ispra, Italy)

Abstract details
Climate vulnerability of the supply chain: methodological review

A. Valeria (1) ; A. Miola (2)
(1) Liverpool Hope University, Business school, Liverpool, United Kingdom; (2) EU Joint Research Center Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate risk management unit, ispra, Italy

Abstract content

The increasing complexity of the present economic system and the strong interdependencies existing between production activities taking place in different world areas make modern societies vulnerable to crisis. The global supply-chain is a paradigmatic example of economic structures on which the impacts of unexpected events propagate rapidly through the system. Climate change, which affects societies all over the world, is one of the most important factors influencing the efficiency of the present economic networks. During the last decades a large set of studies have been oriented to investigate the direct impacts generated on specific geographical areas or productions. However, a smaller number of analyses have been oriented to quantify the cascading economic effects generated all over the world. The great complexity of the global economic system, coupled with methodological and data gaps makes it difficult to estimate the domino effects of unexpected events. A clear understanding of the possible consequences generated all over the world is, however, a fundamental step to build socio-economic resilience and to plan effective adaptation strategies. Within this context, the main objective of the present report is to provide an overview of the main studies, methodologies and databases used to investigate the climate vulnerability of the global supply chain. This information can be useful to i) support further studies, ii) to build consistent quantification methodologies, and iii) to fill the possible data gap.

Adaptive Resilience as an integrative concept for understanding and managing the response of ecosystems to multiple disturbances and changes

W.L. Kutsch (Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS RI), Head Office, Helsinki, Finland)

Abstract details
Adaptive Resilience as an integrative concept for understanding and managing the response of ecosystems to multiple disturbances and changes

WL. Kutsch (1) ; E. Falge (2) ; C. Brümmer, (2) ; R. Scholes (3) ; C. Schmullius, (4) ; T. Thiel-Clemen (5) ; W. Twine, (6) ; G. Midgley, (7)
(1) 10 Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS RI), Head Office, Helsinki, Finland; (2) Thünen Institute for Climate Smart Agriculture, Braunschweig, Germany; (3) University of Witwatersrad, Johennesburg, South Africa; (4) Friedrich-Schiller-Universität, Jena, Germany; (5) University of Appleid Sciences, Hamburg, Germany; (6) University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; (7) Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa

Abstract content

Nowadays, many ecosystems are affected by multiple kinds of disturbances and changes on different time scales: one might be the strong disturbance by land use (e.g. harvest of the woody biomass in forests, grazing) or land use change (mainly conversion to agricultural land); the second, slower and more a change than a disturbance is climate change, caused by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Higgins et al. 2010). Climate change results in a variety of changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, but also higher probability of extreme weather events. These changes may massively influence biogeochemical cycles as well as the balance between species.

Based on this, it can be hypothesized that many ecosystems, even if they are very resilient, may not return to their initial state after disturbance, but will rather adapt to a new steady-state (e.g. associated with the intermediate change in climate). We can name this phenomenon "Adaptive Resilience of Ecosystems". It can be used as a further development of classical resilience concept and use it as base for integrative research and management concepts. This is outlined with the example of semi-arid savanna ecosystems.

A global estimate of carbon stored in the world's mountain grasslands and shrublands, and the implications for climate policy

A. Ward (University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia), P. Dargusch (University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia), S. Thomas (University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia), Y. Liu (University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia), E. Fulton (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Australia)

Abstract details
A global estimate of carbon stored in the world's mountain grasslands and shrublands, and the implications for climate policy

A. Ward (1) ; P. Dargusch (2) ; S. Thomas (2) ; Y. Liu (2) ; E. Fulton (3)
(1) University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; (2) University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; (3) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Australia

Abstract content

Carbon market and climate finance schemes (e.g. the CDM, REDD+ and the Green Climate Fund) are being investigated for their ability to achieve enhanced sustainability outcomes in terrestrial forests, lowland grasslands and marine ecosystems, all which store large amounts of carbon (C). To date however climate policy discourse has largely overlooked the conservation of existing C stored in mountain grasslands andshrublands. These ecosystems provide critical ecological goods and services to humanity yet are increasingly at risk from anthropogenic stressors including agricultural intensification, mining and climate change. The absence of a global estimate for these C stocks is likely to be one reason for their exclusion from climate change policy discussions, both on a political and scientific basis. This represents a missed opportunity in two respects: firstly, by conserving and restoring existing C stocks the impacts of climate change can be lessened; and secondly, carbon finance and climate finance might provide financial support to address the aforementioned stressors. Here we use spatial analysis and estimate there to be between 60.5 Pg C and 82.8 Pg of C contained within biomass and soils of the world’s mountain grasslands and shrublands. To put this in perspective, globally tropical Savannas andgrasslands, temperate forests and tropical peatlands are estimated to contain 326–330 Pg C, 159–292 PgC and 88.6 Pg C respectively. Our review of existing empirical studies and of United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) national greenhouse accounts suggests that this C is not reliably accounted for in international carbon budgets. Our estimate is the first to provide a global point of reference, useful in developing future research and in climate policy discussions. We conclude by briefly discussing how climate finance might be leveraged to support the sustainable management of these C stocks, and in so doing uphold the other important socio-economic benefits provided to humanity.

Fossil fuels ultimate recovery appraisal, clue to climate change modelling

B. Durand (retired from ENS de Géologie, Arvert, France)

Abstract details
Fossil fuels ultimate recovery appraisal, clue to climate change modelling

B. Durand (1)
(1) retired from ENS de Géologie, Geology, Arvert, France

Abstract content

Fossil fuels ultimate recovery appraisal, clue to climate change modelling

 

                                       Bernard Durand*& Jean Laherrère**

 

 

*     Fossil fuels geochemist, former Director of ENS de Géologie.

**  Geophysicist, former Director of Exploration Techniques at Total.

 

Oral Paper submitted to “global carbon and GHG budget” parallel session.

 

Abstract

 

   According to ICCP  report, Climate Change 2013 (the Physical Science Basis), as shown by figure SPM.10 of Summary for Policymakers, temperature of the earth’s surface at the end of the century would depend primarily on the cumulative quantity of CO2 from anthropogenic sources emitted since 1860. Because roughly 80 % of these emissions are produced by fossil fuels combustion, according to this modelling, fossil fuels ultimately recoverable quantities  are the main drivers of climate change during this century and the followers.

   Since production histories of fossil fuels are already long, it is now possible, as shown in this paper, to predict with a good approximation their quantities to be ultimately produced. This is done by statistical methods, using mainly the construction of creaming curves of technical reserves discoveries and Hubbert’s production linearization.

   These quantities are such that a temperature increase till the end of the century as high as described by RCP 8,5 and 6, is highly improbable even in a Business As Usual scenario. And staying below a 2 °C temperature increase from 1860 on remains obviously possible, provided that use of coal is now strongly restricted. This is the responsibility of the main coal consumers.

   10 of them, China, the USA, India, Japan, South Africa, Russia, South Corea, Germany, Poland and Indonesia, consume nearly 90 % of  the world’s total coal production. As a result, these 10 countries also produce for the moment most of the world CO2 emissions. Therefore they are, according to ICCP modeling, the main drivers of climate change. They should definitely cooperate to undertake immediate and strong action.

   Exploitations of bituminous shales, methane hydrates, or of coal by underground gasification are not considered here. They are for the moment highly hypothetical at a large scale. Nevertheless they should not be encouraged.

Cumulative carbon emissions modulated by policy options for limiting warming to below 1.5 and 2°C

J. Rogelj (IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria), M. Schaeffer, (Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany), M. Meinshausen, (University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia)

Abstract details
Cumulative carbon emissions modulated by policy options for limiting warming to below 1.5 and 2°C

J. Rogelj (1) ; M. Schaeffer, (2) ; M. Meinshausen, (3)
(1) IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria; (2) Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; (3) University of Melbourne, Australian-german college of climate & energy transitions, school of earth sciences, Melbourne, Australia

Abstract content

Cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide, or so-called carbon budgets, have recently received increasing attention in the climate policy arena. Not only are they part of the headline statements of the most recent assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), they have also been proposed as guidance for long-term emission reduction goals within the international climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For example, directly following from the concept of a carbon budget is that as soon as 2055 to 2070, global net emissions of CO2 will have to be phased-out to zero in order to stay below 2°C warming with a likely chance.

 

A thorough understanding of the interplay between policy choices and the amount of carbon emissions compatible with specific temperature limits gains therefore in importance, in particular because the amount of future carbon emissions compatible with limiting warming to below the 1.5 or 2°C thresholds is vanishing quickly with time. Mitigation costs are related to the size of the carbon budget and can increase significantly with a delay of strong decarbonisation, as weaker reduction ambition early on comes with the necessity of much stronger reduction rates later.

 

We provide key insights that link the theoretical concept of carbon budgets to a real-world context, by quantifying policy-relevant emission-scenario aspects that increase or decrease cumulative carbon emissions compatible with limiting warming to below specific temperature limits, like 1.5 or 2°C relative to preindustrial. To achieve this, we explore dimensions not previously assessed by the IPCC.

 

First, we show that the choice of methodology to derive compatible carbon emissions from integrated multi-gas emission scenarios plays a non-negligible role. Both the influence of non-CO2 forcing variations and the timescales of the Earth system response lead to lower compatible carbon emissions when derived from low instead of high emission scenarios. Second, as non-CO2 forcing has the potential to modulate carbon budgets, we assess the potential influence of the mitigation of so-called short-lived climate pollutants (SLCP, like methane, soot, or hydrofluorocarbons) on the size of compatible carbon emissions. We show how, due to technological linkages between the sources of CO2 and some SLCPS, the potential impacts can vary strongly across species. Third, we explore how socio-economic developments and technological policy choices can influence the size and cost of a carbon budget for meeting a specific temperature goal by, often inadvertently, influencing the proportion of CO2 to non-CO2 forcing. Finally, by using multi-gas characteristics of a large set of emission scenario as well as theoretical phase-out pathways we explore the implications for the timing of global net zero carbon emissions.

Global and China's admissible emissions pathways under various warming targets

Y. Zhu (Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China), Z. Wang (Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)

Abstract details
Global and China's admissible emissions pathways under various warming targets

Y. Zhu (1) ; Z. Wang (1)
(1) Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Abstract content

Using the adaptive control model with climate system, this paper projected and compared the global admissible emission pathways under various warming targets, namely, warming 2℃ above pre-industrial level, and the average level of 1850-1900, 1861-1880, 1961-1990, 1980-1999 and 1986-2005 that mentioned in IPCC-AR5 WGI report. Our study shows that the admissible emission is required to reduce by 20%, 35%, 50% and 62% until 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2100 respectively so as to limit the global warming within 2℃ above the preindustrial level. This indicates that the Copenhagen agreement is hard to achieve without some breakthrough in low-carbon energy technology since the global emission is ever-increasing. Corresponding to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 in IPCC AR5 report, the admissible emissions pathways for the 2℃ targets above the average level of 1850-1990 and 1861-1880 indicates that it can still rise until 2040-2045 following the historical trend and then reduce. Therefore, they are not effective targets to abate the emissions promptly. Moreover, taking 1961-1990, 1980-1999 and 1986-2005 as the base year means the admissible emission is far more than what is needed.

In view of the difficulty to achieve these targets, we further proposed three viable warming limit schemes after appraising the feasibility of the aforementioned targets, which are (1) warming 2.5℃ relative to pre-industrial level, (2) warming 1℃ relative to 1986-2005 and (3) 1.5℃ relative to 1850-1900. The first one is a mild reduction target, which requires the global emission to stop increasing immediately and starts to reduce since 2020 gradually, finally reach a level slightly less than that in 2005 by 2100. This target is in accordance with the current abatement commitments of major countries/regions. The second one is a moderate target, which indicates the global emission should decrease at once with a smooth dropping rate. It matches the average warming expectation of RCP 2.6 scenario in IPCC report and should be a reference for each country to make further commitment. The last one is a strong target, which requires the global emission to reduce immediately with the rate similar to its growth rate during 2000-2012, indicating greater efforts need to make.

Finally, the emission rights are analyzed with different principle of allocation. The sovereignty principle is to the benefit of developed countries such as United States, European Union and Japan; some populous countries like China and India are in favor of the egalitarianism principle; the developing countries will get more emission right under the principle of ability-to-pay. China will acquire about one fifth of global emissions under all the three principles, indicating the current emission level in China is compatible with its population and economy. But with all these principles, the admissible emission for China will shrink gradually under the three aforementioned warming targets and the emission gap between emission demand and supply will enlarge accordingly.

Changes in the global methane budget since 2000

P. Bousquet (Université de Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France), M. Saunois (Université de Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France), B. Poulter (Montana State University, Bozeman, United States of America), P. Ciais (LSCE, CEA, CNRS and UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), J. P. Canadell (Global Carbon Project, Canberra, Australia), E. J. Dlugokencky, (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States of America), A. Peregon (Université de Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France), M. Global-Carbon-Project (Global Carbon, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Changes in the global methane budget since 2000

P. Bousquet (1) ; M. Saunois (1) ; B. Poulter (2) ; P. Ciais (3) ; JP. Canadell (4) ; EJ. Dlugokencky, (5) ; A. Peregon (1) ; M. Global-Carbon-Project (6)
(1) Université de Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Gif sur Yvette, France; (2) Montana State University, Ecosystem dynamics lab, Bozeman, United States of America; (3) LSCE, CEA, CNRS and UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (4) Global Carbon Project, Csiro marine and atmospheric research, Canberra, Australia; (5) National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Esrl/gmd, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (6) Global Carbon, Project, Paris, France

Abstract content

Methane is the second anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Atmospheric methane has contributed 20% of the climate forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since pre-industrial times but also influences the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere. With a lifetime around 10 years in the atmosphere and a diversity of emission types, methane is an important target for climate change mitigation. Observations of atmospheric methane began in 1978, reached global coverage after 1983, and now include a large variety of in-situ and remote-sensed observations. After the loss of SCIAMACHY (2002-2012), two space missions are currently producing methane weighted-columns, GOSAT (since 2009) and METOP-IASI (since 2007).

 

Although sources and sinks of methane are identified, large uncertainties remain in their spatio-temporal quantification. Here, we present a synthesis of methane emissions and sinks since 2000 using an integrated approach to combine: atmospheric measurements, chemistry-transport models, ecosystem models, emission inventories, and climate-chemistry models. The results of an ensemble of atmospheric inversions (top-down) and of process-based models (bottom-up) are presented and compared. Global and regional methane budgets and their changes are presented and discussed for the period 2000-2012. Possible scenarios are presented to explain the increase of atmospheric methane after 2006, after almost a decade of stagnation. Year-to-year changes are also analysed after 2006 in order to identify robust changes as opposed to still uncertain ones.

 

(6) Global Carbon project / methane is a group of scientists working to improve the global methane budget : P.Bousquet, M.Saunois, B.Poulter, P.Ciais, J.G.Canadell, E.J.Dlugokencky, A. Peregon, D. Bastviken, D. J. Beerling, P. Bergamaschi, D. R. Blake, G. Braisford, V. Brovkin, L. Bruhwiler, S. Castaldi, C. Covey, C. Crévoisier, C. Curry, S. N. Denisov, A. V. Eliseev, J. Etiope, C. Frankenberg, Y. Fukuyama, N. Gedney, M. Herrero, P. Hopcroft, S. Houweling, A. Ito, R. Jackson, F. Joos, T. Kleinen, C. D. Koven, P. B. Krummel, J.-F. Lamarque, Z. Lingxi, Z. Loh, J. Marshall, T. Machida, S. Maksyutov, K. McDonald, J. Melton, G. Maenhout, I. Morino, C. Le Quéré,  V. Naik, P. I. Palmer, P. Patra, S. Peng, G. Peters, I. Pison, C. Prigent, R. G. Prinn, M. Ramonet, P. Raymond, M. Rigby, K. Saad, M. Saito, M.Santini, R.Schroeder, I.J.Simpson, R.Spahni, P.Steele, L.Taylor, H.Tian, Y.Tohjima, F. Tubiello, G. R. van der Werf, N. Viovy, A. Voulgarakis, W. Wagner, M. Weitz, D. J. Wilton, D. Worthy, D. Wunch, Y. Yoshida, T. Yokota.

Biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions overwhelm land CO2 sink: implications for climate change mitigation

H. Tian (Auburn University, Auburn, AL, United States of America), C. Lu, (Auburn University, Auburn, AL, United States of America), P. Ciais (LSCE, CEA, CNRS and UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), A. Michalak, (Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, United States of America), J. P. Canadell (Global Carbon Project, Canberra, Australia), E. Saikawa, (Emory University, Atlanta, United States of America), D. Huntzinger, (Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, United States of America), K. Gurney (Arizona State University, Tempe , United States of America), S. Sitch, (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), B. Zhang, (Auburn University, Auburn, AL, United States of America), J. Yang, (Auburn University, Auburn, AL, United States of America), P. Bousquet (Université de Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, Gif sur Yvette, France), L. M. P. Bruhwiler, (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States of America), G. Chen, (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, United States of America), E. J. Dlugokencky, (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO, United States of America), P. Friedlingstein (University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom), J. Melillo, (Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, United States of America), S. Pan, (Auburn University, Auburn, AL, United States of America), B. Poulter (Montana State University, Bozeman, United States of America), R. Prinn, (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States of America)

Abstract details
Biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions overwhelm land CO2 sink: implications for climate change mitigation

H. Tian (1) ; C. Lu, (1) ; P. Ciais (2) ; A. Michalak, (3) ; JP. Canadell (4) ; E. Saikawa, (5) ; D. Huntzinger, (6) ; K. Gurney (7) ; S. Sitch, (8) ; B. Zhang, (1) ; J. Yang, (1) ; P. Bousquet (9) ; LMP. Bruhwiler, (10) ; G. Chen, (11) ; EJ. Dlugokencky, (10) ; P. Friedlingstein (8) ; J. Melillo, (12) ; S. Pan, (1) ; B. Poulter (13) ; R. Prinn, (14)
(1) Auburn University, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn, AL, United States of America; (2) LSCE, CEA, CNRS and UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; (3) Carnegie Institution for Science, Department of global ecology, Stanford, United States of America; (4) Global Carbon Project, Csiro marine and atmospheric research, Canberra, Australia; (5) Emory University, Department of environmental studies, Atlanta, United States of America; (6) Northern Arizona University, School of earth sciences and environmental sustainability, Flagstaff, United States of America; (7) Arizona State University, Tempe , United States of America; (8) University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; (9) Université de Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Gif sur Yvette, France; (10) National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Esrl/gmd, Boulder, CO, United States of America; (11) Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental sciences division, Oak Ridge, United States of America; (12) Marine Biological Laboratory, The ecosystem center, Woods Hole, United States of America; (13) Montana State University, Ecosystem dynamics lab, Bozeman, United States of America; (14) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for global change science, Cambridge, United States of America

Abstract content

The stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere requires reducing net anthropogenic GHG emissions and increasing the capacity of carbon sinks in the biosphere. Although global terrestrial CO2 uptake partially mitigates global warming, its contribution may be offset or even overturned by the increasing biogenic emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Of particular importance to climate change mitigation policies is the ability to evaluate the net balance of these three GHGs in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we synthesized multiple estimates of CO2, CH4 and N2O from various studies to investigate the net biogenic GHG budget (NBGB) on global and regional scales. Based on 22 bottom-up studies using terrestrial biosphere models, empirical and inventory-based approaches and 7 top-down studies using atmospheric inverse models, we conclude that global terrestrial ecosystems had a net positive NBGB, indicating net greenhouse gas release to the atmosphere. After subtracting pre-industrial GHG emissions from land ecosystems, we found the global land uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (-7.7 to -9.2 Pg CO2 eq/yr) was offset by 129% to 147% due to anthropogenically-caused emissions of CH4 and N2O. Among them, agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions (7.0 to 8.0 Pg CO2 eq/yr) play the most important role, offsetting 85% - 103% of the global land sink of anthropogenic CO2. It is clear that biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions had overwhelmed the global land CO2 sink, contributing to a net climate warming effect of all the GHG exchanged to or from the land biosphere. Our results indicate that effective agricultural management strategies are very much needed to alleviate biogenic GHG emissions, while sustaining food and bioenergy production.

Black Carbon emission and its climate implication in Pakistan

I. Shahid (Institute of Space Technology, Islamabd, Islamabad, Pakistan)

Abstract details
Black Carbon emission and its climate implication in Pakistan

I. Shahid (1)
(1) Institute of Space Technology, Islamabd, 1-Islamabad highway near Rawat Toll plaza ISlamabad, Islamabad, Pakistan

Abstract content

Black carbon (BC) is a product of incomplete combustion (burning that gives off smoke). It is the solid, mostly pure carbon component of soot that is capable of absorbing light at all wavelengths. Black carbon emissions in South Asia are primarily derived from four sectors: residential, industrial, transportation, and biomass burning (field burning, cook stove burning). The residential sector represents the largest single source of black carbon emissions in South Asia. The transportation and industrial sectors are also significant contributors (US EPA 2012). Black carbon deposited on snow and ice darkens the surface and decreases reflectivity, thereby increasing absorption and accelerating melting. Kopacz et al., (2011) reported the role of BC in Himalaya glacier melting and change of radiative forcing in the region due to BC.

Emission inventories and analyses of aerosol samples indicate that more than half of the black carbon emitted in South Asia comes from the burning of biofuels, especially in traditional cook stoves. Shahid et al., (2015) reported that burning of different wood species for cooking emits 22% BC of the total amount of biomass burned. Other large sources include burning of coal (for example in brick kilns), exhaust from diesel vehicles and generators, waste burning, and forest fires. Many sources of black carbon also co-emit other substances that are less light-absorbing, or that scatter light, including brown carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate. Emissions from diesel trucks have a higher percentage of pure black carbon than emissions from open fires. The overall effect of BC in any region will therefore be a result of local / regional / global emission, climate and geography. For example, in the Himalayas BC can amplify the effects of enhanced global warming while, in addition, causing surface dimming which can reduce crop productivity. There have been efforts to build emission inventories in Pakistan, however, this has been sporadic and specific. Three local efforts, one in 1990, another in 1994 and the latest in 2009 have all focused on greenhouse gases (GHG), and BC carbon was ignored. In global and regional emission inventories scarce information is available for Pakistan. In this study BC emissions have been estimated from different sectors using Atmospheric Brown Cloud emission inventory manual with emphasis of biomass burning for cooking and field burning (crop Residue). Unfortunately no sector specific emission factors are available. Thus we used emission factors that have been already published and closely related to Pakistan environment. During the year 2013-14, 16.923 x 106 Hectare area was cultivated for crop production, and 116 x 106 tonnes of crops were produced which inturn produced 40 x 106 tonnes of dry mass that was burnt in field. Thus single source of crop residue buring emits about 24 mega tonnes of BC along with other pollutants. Based of this data emission maps will be generated for gridded emissions over Pakistan. 

 

These are the preliminary results,work is going on and hopefully will be able to finish till June.

Speciation of anthropogenic VOC emissions from observations in contrasted urban environments: a basis for emission inventory evaluation and the definition of CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) historical emission inventory

T. Salameh (Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA),IPSL,CNRS,UMR7583,UPEC and UPD, Créteil, France), A. Borbon, (Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA),IPSL,CNRS,UMR7583,UPEC and UPD, Créteil, France), C. Afif, (Unité Environnement, Génomique Fonctionnelle et Études Mathématiques, Saint Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon), S. Sauvage, (Mines Douai, Sciences de l'Atmosphère et Génie de l'Environnement (SAGE), Douai, France), N. Locoge, (Mines Douai, Sciences de l'Atmosphère et Génie de l'Environnement (SAGE), Douai, France), C. Granier (CNRS, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Speciation of anthropogenic VOC emissions from observations in contrasted urban environments: a basis for emission inventory evaluation and the definition of CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) historical emission inventory

T. Salameh (1) ; A. Borbon, (1) ; C. Afif, (2) ; S. Sauvage, (3) ; N. Locoge, (3) ; C. Granier (4)
(1) Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA),IPSL,CNRS,UMR7583,UPEC and UPD, Créteil, France; (2) Unité Environnement, Génomique Fonctionnelle et Études Mathématiques, Saint Joseph University, Beirut, Lebanon; (3) Mines Douai, Sciences de l'Atmosphère et Génie de l'Environnement (SAGE), Douai, France; (4) CNRS, LATMOS/IPSL, Paris, France

Abstract content

Having accurate trace species emission estimates is critical in the development of basic scientific knowledge and to assess atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climatic conditions at present and in the future. In addition, detailed emissions data are also required at high resolution for the design of feasible controls aimed at reducing emissions of pollutants, and for the evaluation of the efficiency of the implemented policies. Therefore, concerted efforts in emission inventory development are necessary to improve the quality of the emission estimates and to be able to reproduce air quality conditions in models. In this context, the CMIP project was established to provide a basic support for the IPCC future report (AR6). The CMIP Panel has requested further improvements on the emissions data by using observations, as well as on the emissions spatial and temporal resolution. Among others, a high priority is given to the development of anthropogenic hydrocarbon and particle speciation.

Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs), emitted from various sources, are of particular interest since they affect urban air quality and regional climate change by contributing to the formation of tropospheric ozone, PAN and Secondary Organic Aerosols. According to Shindell et al. (2012), NMVOC reductions could help slow the near-term rate of climate change because of their influence on short-lived climate forcers (e.g., ozone, methane, aerosols). Thus, reducing NMVOC emissions provides regional to global benefits to air quality and climate (Fry et al. 2014). Some studies have shown that the NMVOC composition depends on the regional characteristics, even among the northern mid-latitude megacities (Borbon et al., 2013). These discrepancies may be more important if we consider the UNFCC Non-Annex 1 countries.

Here, we propose to make an assessment of the spatial and temporal variability of the composition of NMVOC anthropogenic emissions from recent and decadal observations in urban areas in order to define more accurate and representative NMVOC emission sources profiles. The main objectives are: (1) the establishment of NMVOC emission sources profiles from in-situ observations or by near field measurements, (2) the analysis of seasonal and interannual variability of NMVOC emissions composition, and (3) the evaluation of the anthropogenic emission inventories.

This work is based on the most recent results of several long-term (air quality networks) and intensive measurement campaigns (MEGAPOLI – Paris, 2009, CalNex,) in post-industrialized regions (northern mid-latitude cities) and in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin within the TRANSEMED initiative. According to the ACCMIP and RCPs inventories, the total anthropogenic emissions of NMVOCs in the MEA region were constantly increasing reaching ~15 Tg in 2010 whereas in USA and Europe, the NMVOCs emissions were decreasing reaching ~10 Tg in 2010 (ECCAD database). A very detailed and unique multipollutant database was generated in a city of the Middle East, Beirut, with a focus on the organic carbon, and in Istanbul. Since, the current NMVOC speciation applied in models needs updating, source profiles were determined with field measurements close to the main potential emitters (Salameh et al. 2014).

References:

Borbon et al., 2014. Emission ratios of anthropogenic VOC in northern mid-latitude megacities: observations vs. emission inventories in Los Angeles and Paris. J. Geophys. Res., vol. 118, 2041–2057.

ECCAD database: http://eccad.sedoo.fr/eccad_extract_interface/JSF/page_products_em.jsf

Fry et al., 2014. Air quality and radiative forcing impacts of anthropogenic volatile organic compound emissions from ten world regions. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 523–535.

Salameh et al., 2014. Speciation of Non- Methane Hydrocarbons (NMHC) from anthropogenic sources in Beirut, Lebanon. Environ Sci Pollut Res, 21, 10867 - 10877.

Shindell et al. 2012. Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security. Science, 335, 183–189.

Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

T. Froelicher (ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

T. Froelicher (1)
(1) ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract content

Climate model simulations and theoretical arguments indicate an approximately linear relationship between cumulative carbon emissions and projected global mean temperature over the 21st century and beyond in a wide set of future carbon emissions scenarios. This Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) is estimated to likely (> 66% likelihood) be in the range of 0.8-2.5°C/1000 Gt carbon. TCRE is defined for peak temperature and is nearly independent of the rate of carbon emissions. Any global temperature target therefore implies a limited carbon emissions budget. TCRE is a simple and useful policy framework and may play an important role in the post-Kyoto political negotiations for a new global agreement on future carbon emissions.

 

A recent modeling study (Frölicher et al. 2014) using carbon pulse experiments of a comprehensive global atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) finds that global mean temperature may continue to increase on multi-centennial timescales even after stopping carbon emissions. In other words, there may be a significant amount of warming expected from past carbon emissions. These results imply that the linear relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions breaks down when the carbon emissions are tapering off. This is in contrast to a large body of studies suggesting that global mean surface temperature stays roughly constant for a couple of centuries at the value attained when carbon emissions are stopped. These earlier studies, however, use climate models of intermediate complexity, which simplify the complexities of many processes such as cloud feedbacks.

 

These results call for an extension of the TCRE concept. Here I use climate models of different complexities to show that the temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different timescales or phases and that the TCRE concept is only valid during the first phase, when emissions are steadily increasing. For longer time-scales, when emissions are tapering off, two new metrics will be introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions, namely the Peak Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (PCRE) and the Equilibrium (multi-millennial) Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (ECRE). I will explain why the PCRE is generally larger than the TCRE in the fully coupled AOGCMs and why the models of intermediate complexity as a class don’t simulate an increase in global mean temperature after carbon emissions stoppage. The implications of these results for allowable carbon emissions required to remain below a specific global warming target will be discussed.

 

Frölicher, T. L., M. Winton, J. L. Sarmiento, 2014, Continued global warming after CO2 emissions stoppage, Nature Climate Change, 4, 40-44.

 

Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle projections

S. Mystakidis (ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland), L. E. Davin (ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland), N. Gruber (ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland), S. Seneviratne (ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Hydrological and biogeochemical constraints on terrestrial carbon cycle projections

S. Mystakidis (1) ; LE. Davin (1) ; N. Gruber (2) ; S. Seneviratne (1)
(1) ETH Zurich, Institute for atmospheric and climate science, Zurich, Switzerland; (2) ETH Zurich, Institute of biogeochemistry and pollutant dynamics, Zurich, Switzerland

Abstract content

Terrestrial ecosystems are playing a crucial role in the climate system by absorbing about one third of the total anthropogenic emissions of CO2, thus providing a valuable ecosystem service to mankind. How this ecosystem service will evolve in the coming decades is still a subject of debate. This evolution depends on the response of biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems to a changing climate with more frequent and severe extreme events in some regions as well as to increased CO2 concentrations. Earth System Models which are explicitly represent the ecosystem behavior such as the exchange of carbon and water with the atmosphere are used to study the future evolution of the land and ocean carbon cycle sinks. However, the estimates of these carbon fluxes are clearly subject to significant uncertainties. Observationally-based constraints on these simulated fluxes should therefore facilitate reduce uncertainties in future terrestrial carbon cycle projections performed for AR5 (CMIP5).

Gross Primary Production (GPP) is the total amount of carbon that is taken up by plants during photosynthesis and it is one of the main components of the land carbon cycle and driver of the carbon uptake by land. We show that over many regions models simulating high present-day GPP and Evapotranspiration (ET) tend to simulate higher increase in future GPP. Using these emergent relationships combined with present-day estimates of ET and GPP we constrain future changes in GPP. We find that the inter-model spread in future GPP is reduced by at least 50% while the increase in future GPP in northern latitudes is higher than previously thought. Our results for future changes in Water Use Efficiency (WUE), a highly significant determinant of primary production of terrestrial ecosystems, show similar behavior. Applying the observational constraints on the future land sink (NBP) reveals higher than previously thought decrease in the land sink. The inter-model spread in the land sink is reduced by more than 30% and in most of the constrained ensembles the terrestrial biosphere is even turned into a net carbon source by the end of the century. Our findings therefore have several implications on the future productivity of ecosystems and the atmospheric CO2 concentrations.

Air Pollution Emissions and Potential for Co-Benefits in Megacities of South Asia

B.R. Gurjar (Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India)

Abstract details
Air Pollution Emissions and Potential for Co-Benefits in Megacities of South Asia

BR. Gurjar (1)
(1) Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Civil Engineering Department, Roorkee, India

Abstract content

The South Asian region is highly and densely populated and includes 5 megacities (each with population more than 10 million) and hundreds of large and medium size cities. Megacities in South Asia are namely - Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata (India), Dhaka (Bangladesh) and Karachi (Pakistan). Constantly increasing energy-intensive urban activities in burgeoning cities areas are responsible for a large share in the unacceptably high emissions of those air pollutants, which are responsible for poor air quality, adverse health effects and also climate change. High levels of Air pollution in South Asia came into highlight by the South Asian haze called Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC). The annual premature deaths due to ABC were estimated equal to 100,000s in the South Asian region. Whereas, recent estimates of the burden in India show approximately 1.04 million premature deaths and 31.4 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to be attributable to household air pollution (HAP) resulting from solid cooking fuels. Numerous policy measures and technological interventions are being tried in India and other countries to curb the air pollution. However, there is a growing interest in adopting those measures which can reduce air pollution emissions resulting in not only air quality improvement and health benefits but also in climate change related co-benefits.

 

This presentation would provide an analysis of the urban pollution emissions and potential for health and climate change related co-benefits in South Asian megacities. Most of the South Asian countries are in the stage of developing or emerging economies, and India is the fasted growing economy among them. Given the increasing trend of energy use and emissions in South Asian cities, present study is a step to make governments and people aware of the extent and intensity of ambient as well as indoor air pollution problem. The analysis presented in this study is expected to help initiate appropriate policy measures and suitable action plans to limit air pollution emissions and adopt ways based on co-benefits approach that can promote the sustainable development – especially in South Asia.

National and regional contributions to global climate change

R. B. Skeie (CICERO, Oslo, Norway), J. S. Fuglestvedt (CICERO, Oslo, Norway), M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), T. Berntsen (CICERO, Oslo, Norway), G. P. Peters (CICERO, Oslo, Norway)

Abstract details
National and regional contributions to global climate change

RB. Skeie (1) ; JS. Fuglestvedt (1) ; M. Allen () ; T. Berntsen (1) ; GP. Peters (1)
(1) CICERO, Oslo, Norway

Abstract content

According to the “Brazilian Proposal” from 1997 the industrialized countries should reduce emissions proportional to their contribution to temperature increase. The emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Short-Lived Climate Forcers (SLCFs) have changed dramatically over the last decade with large regional differences, suggesting that previous estimates are outdated. In this work we update earlier estimates of the contributions to global mean temperature change from countries and regions, and perform deeper analysis of various scientific and policy related choices. Which time period should be accounted for when calculating the countries’ contributions? We show the importance of the start year, end year, and evaluation year on countries’ contributions. Another choice is which forcing components that should be included in the analysis. First we consider only CO2 from fossil fuels and then we explore how the results are affected when all Kyoto gases and CO2 from land use change are included, and then non-Kyoto gases together with SLCFs. Time series of emissions of GHGs, aerosols and its precursors for countries/regions are constructed and a simple climate model is used to calculate the temperature response.  Another policy choice is for which stage in the emission chain the contributions should be calculated (extraction, production (territorial), consumption). Finally, we will discuss how the historical responsibilities of countries/regions can be seen in relation to attribution to extreme events based on work in the EU-project EUCLEIA.

Emissions metrics and evaluating methane-emitting natural gas as a bridge fuel

J. Trancik (MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States of America), M. Edwards (MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States of America), M. Klemun (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, United States of America), M. Roy, (MIT, Cambridge, United States of America)

Abstract details
Emissions metrics and evaluating methane-emitting natural gas as a bridge fuel

J. Trancik (1) ; M. Edwards (1) ; M. Klemun (2) ; M. Roy, (3)
(1) MIT, Cambridge, MA, United States of America; (2) Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Cambridge, United States of America; (3) MIT, Cambridge, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate change mitigation is a multi-gas problem. Mitigation policies that focus on CO2 reductions alone may result in increased emissions of other gases such as CH4, leading to overshoots of climate policy goals.  For example, policies aimed at reducing CO2 emissions may encourage a transition from coal to natural gas electricity, enabled by increased production of unconventional gas, but could also lead to higher CH4 emissions due to leakage in the natural gas supply chain. Therefore, it is important to consider multiple gases in making emissions reduction commitments and in evaluating technology options to meet these goals.  Here we present an approach to evaluating policies and technologies based on their multi-gas emissions.

 

Evaluating technology options on a common scale, or setting a national target for overall GHG emissions reductions, requires some means of comparing different gases on a common scale. This comparison is challenging because of the dissimilar removal dynamics of different GHGs. Emissions equivalency metrics are a commonly used approach, and the global warming potential (GWP) is the most prevalent metric. The GWP converts masses of non-CO2 GHG emissions to a CO2-equivalent value based on a time-integrated radiative forcing comparison over a fixed horizon of 100 years, leading to a conversion factor that is constant over time. This static approach can lead to significant overshoots of climate policy goals, such as radiative forcing stabilization targets, because it doesn’t take into account how close in time emissions occur relative to an intended stabilization year.

 

Here we present an alternative set of dynamic emissions equivalency metrics that evaluate emissions impacts relative to an intended radiative forcing stabilization level [1]. Our approach results in a lower impact value on shorter-lived greenhouse gases, like CH4, early on, but increases this value as emissions approach an intended stabilization time. The metrics are relatively independent of the future emissions and energy consumption scenario to be followed, and therefore can be used to evaluate policies and technologies despite the inherent uncertainty about the future. Applying the metrics to set emissions reduction targets and evaluate technologies results in substantially lower overshoots of climate policy targets than the GWP. Furthermore the metrics points to methane mitigation timelines that can allow for greater energy consumption while meeting climate policy goals [2].   

 

How might dynamic metrics be used in setting policy targets? We will discuss a specific example by examining the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Power Plan target of 30% reduction in power sector CO2 emissions by the year 2030 (from 2005 levels). This policy incentivizes a shift to natural-gas based electricity generation, and could result in significant increases in power sector CH4-emissions. Applying the time-sensitive metrics mentioned above, overall GHG reductions (counting both CO2 and CH4 ) may only reach 10-20% by 2030, instead of the targeted 30%, without additional methane regulation. However, as shown by applying the proposed dynamic metrics, reduction rates of 11-13% per year would allow the 30% by 2030 GHG reduction target to be met [3]. As demonstrated by this US example, capturing the full climate benefit of coal-to-gas technology transitions requires substantial CH4 mitigation to complement CO2-focused climate policy frameworks. The alignment of CO2 abatement and CH4 leakage reduction goals is an important problem that needs to be addressed as nations globally prepare policy proposals for the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21.  The method proposed here provides an approach to setting coupled CO2 and CH4 reduction targets, and evaluating mitigation technologies.

 

[1] M.R. Edwards and J.E. Trancik,  Climate Impacts of Energy Technologies Depend on Emissions Timing, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, pp. 347-352, 2014.

[2] Roy, Edwards and Trancik 2014. Timelines for mitigating methane emissions from energy technologies, in review.  http://arxiv.org/abs/1501.03041

[3] Klemun and Trancik, 2015, Hidden effects of carbon-focused energy policies necessitate accelerated methane mitigation, in preparation.

 

Lagrangian modeling of global atmospheric methane (MAIOLICA II project)

F. Arfeuille (EMPA, Dübendorf, Switzerland), S. Henne (EMPA, Dübendorf, Switzerland), D. Brunner (EMPA, Dübendorf, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Lagrangian modeling of global atmospheric methane (MAIOLICA II project)

F. Arfeuille (1) ; S. Henne (1) ; D. Brunner (1)
(1) EMPA, Dübendorf, Switzerland

Abstract content

In the MAIOLICA II project, the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART is used to simulate the global atmospheric CH4 over the 1990-2010 period. In this Lagrangian framework, 3 million particles are permanently transported based on wind fields from ERA-interim. The history of individual particles can be followed allowing for comprehensive analysis of transport pathways and timescales and to establish a link between sources (emissions) and receptors (measurement stations) in a straightforward manner, a prerequisite for source inversion problems. FLEXPART was extended to incorporate the methane loss by reaction with OH. CH4 mass is further lost by soil uptake and stratospheric loss reactions with prescribed Cl and O(1D) radicals.

Sources are separated into 245 different tracers, depending on source origin (anthropogenic, wetlands, rice, biomass burning, termites, wild animals, oceans, volcanoes), region of emission, and time since emission (5 age classes).  The inversion approach applied is a fixed-lag Kalman smoother similar to that described in Bruhwiler et al. [2005]. 

Results from the FLEXPART global methane simulation and from the subsequent inversion will be presented.

 

Bruhwiler, L. M. P., A. M. Michalak, W. Peters, D. F. Baker, and P. Tans (2005), An improved Kalman Smoother for atmospheric inversions, Atmos Chem Phys, 5, 2691-2702

A model of choice under uncertainty for flood preparedness intention in Brazil

G. Guedes (Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil), R. Raad (Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil), L. Vaz (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), M. Araujo (Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil)

Abstract details
A model of choice under uncertainty for flood preparedness intention in Brazil

G. Guedes (1) ; R. Raad (2) ; L. Vaz (3) ; M. Araujo (4)
(1) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of Demography, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil; (2) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of economics, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; (3) Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Department of economics, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; (4) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of statistics, Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Abstract content

This paper performs an econometric analysis based on selected dimensions of the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) for Brazil. We empirically estimated preparedness determinants by using Seemingly Unrelated Regression models. PADM survey instrument validation was based on Cronbach alpha, inter-rater agreement index, factor analysis, and mean-comparison tests. The PADM was applied to a representative sample of 1,200 households in the municipality of Governador Valadares, State of Minas Gerais. The site was chosen because river floods are recurrent in the area, reaching thousands of households along the river. Its urban environment has undergone dramatic change in the last decades, creating an ideal scenario for flooding: riparian deforestation, river silting, unplanned occupation of riverbanks, and garbage and sewage discharge into the river. In addition to the econometric analysis, event calendar of major floods in the area, also collected in the survey, allows for comparison between intended and actual preparedness behavior. Building on models of private insurance, we provide a theoretical framework stating that risk aversion is a key factor affecting the directions of influence given by the price and resource effectiveness on the probability of adopting preventive behavior. Thus, for a given nominal budget constraint an increase in insurance price could change one's risk aversion, leading to a higher propensity to buy insurance. We found that, under certain conditions on risk aversion, hazard-related attributes (HRA) positively affect propensity to take protective actions. This was confirmed by our regression results. In contrast, resource-related attributes (RRA) positively or do not affect propensity to adopt protective actions. This non-intuitive finding can be justified by our theoretical framework: risk averse individuals would feel relatively deprived with increase in the opportunity costs of action, leading to additional effort to take protective actions against flood hazard. Finally, the impact of HRA was empirically higher than RRA on preventive behavior since the effective cost of preventive actions is low relative to a person's budget constraint. These findings suggest that public action should promote educational campaigns aiming the reduction of subjective uncertainty on resource effectiveness.

The Power of Communication in Post Disaster Reconstruction and the Implication for RIA: A Cross Country Synthesis

E. K.-H. Lin (Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan)

Abstract details
The Power of Communication in Post Disaster Reconstruction and the Implication for RIA: A Cross Country Synthesis

EKH. Lin (1)
(1) Academia Sinica, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Taipei, Taiwan Province (People's Republic of China)

Abstract content

This research presents a research project funded by International START secretariat, and earlier co-sponsored by International Social Science Council and Integrated Research on Disaster Reduction (IRDR). The project is built on the RIA model developed by Risk Interpretation and Action working group of IRDR and further examines the effects of communication across scales and social entities that might influence personal RIA in the arena of post disaster reconstruction and resettlement phases. The ontology of the conceptual framework pertinent to this project views risk interpretation and decision making as dynamic and interactive. Based on the rationale, we develop an analytical framework to investigate the higher level of legislative, institutional and political structures that determine the scope of engagement and the relationships among the governed stakeholders in the policy making processes, with the lower level of norms and values that not only frame the essence of the society but also inherent in the personal interpretation about certain risk of interest. We also examine the factors addressed in RIA model in the cross scale communication dynamism. A three-staged hierarchical research design is thus developed corresponding to these research inquires in the case studies across five countries, namely Taiwan, Philippines, Uganda, Honduras, and India. The research results of the cross country synthesis are displayed at governmental and institutional level and at the community or individual level that finally come along with the provisional pathologies for analyzing communication influences throughout the processes.

At the governmental and institutional level, it is found that the robustness of the legislative and institutional framework to regulate engagement and participation of civil society is fundamental for strengthening the influences of communication on policy making. Taiwan and Philippines, followed by India, have shown the higher standard of the trajectories, while Uganda and Honduras display weak or absence of the related legislation and thus the least strength of communication waged with higher social conflicts and instability. At the community and individual level, the RIA factors are examined including experiences, trust, culture, social norm, rational choices and uncertainty. Dramatically this research finds that risk interpretation and decision made for taking action are two different things. The interpretation of risk has deep rooted in the population’s cultural basis, which is not easy to be changed. Moreover, people’s decision for risk reduction does not singly reflect their interpretation of the certain risk of the physical hazard as narrowly defined by scholars or experts; it actually builds on the interpretations of enormous uncertainties relating to any socio-economic and cultural changes following the possible action. Thus risk interpretation is multidimensional, reflecting people’s social, cultural and institutional embeddedness, far beyond the theoretical debates between rational or irrational discourses. The decision made for taking certain action usually reflects the net outcome of factor competitions behind the embeddedness. Communication thus brings imperative functions for sharing the interpretation of the risks and the concerned uncertainties; and obviously as revealed in the study, shared rights for local people to participate in the policy making processes could bring positive effects on formulating more desirable and acceptable policies for post disaster reconstruction and resettlement that would reciprocally influence personal decision making towards a more mutually desirable solution. 

Modelling Agricultural Risk in India from an Insurance Perspective

T. Osborne (Asia Risk Centre, Reading, United Kingdom), R. Hohl, (Asia Risk Centre, Singapore, Singapore), A. Boissonnade, (Asia Risk Centre, California, United States of America)

Abstract details
Modelling Agricultural Risk in India from an Insurance Perspective

T. Osborne (1) ; R. Hohl, (2) ; A. Boissonnade, (3)
(1) Asia Risk Centre, Reading, United Kingdom; (2) Asia Risk Centre, Singapore, Singapore; (3) Asia Risk Centre, California, United States of America

Abstract content

After China, India is the second largest agriculture producer globally where over 120 million farmers with an average farm size of only 1.3 hectares produce a large variety of crop types in two main growing seasons. With only 30% of the arable land being irrigated, India’s agriculture sector relies heavily on the timely onset and spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall for successful cultivation of summer (Kharif) crops. Breaks in monsoon rainfall can trigger severe droughts as experienced in 2002 where rainfall deficits reached 21% over the growing season and a drop of 18% in nationwide grain production resulted. Conversely, particularly active periods within the monsoon can lead to flood damage to Kharif crops. The winter (Rabi) crops are sensitive to prolonged cold spells, frost events and abnormal heat.

 

As part of measures to cope with severe droughts, cyclones and floods, the Indian government has implemented and supported a variety of national crop insurance programs which entirely rely on weather and yield indices. The current insurance schemes include the Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS) and the yield-based modified National Crop Insurance Scheme (mNAIS). With the anticipated growth, annual agriculture insurance premiums are likely to reach USD 1 billion making India the third or fourth largest agriculture insurance market globally.

 

With the increasing complexity of the weather and yield indices pricing WBCIS and mNAIS portfolios has become a challenge for insurers. Key constraints for robust risk modeling and exposure management are i) the lack and accessibility of weather station data and ii) the short and often incomplete time series of historical yield data which often show strong trends depending on the crop type, region and season. For mNAIS, insurance terms are based on only 11-15 years of historical yield data and payouts are triggered if actual yields are 10%-20% below expected (insured) levels. In areas where larger yield shortfalls have not been observed in the last 11-15 years, insurance terms might not adequately reflect the risk potential, especially for systematic events such as droughts, floods and cyclones. Based on the short historical time series, extreme events such as the 1987 or 2002 droughts cannot be consistently assessed and insurers are concerned about spatial correlations of such events and resulting financial losses.

 

This paper presents results of research undertaken by Asia Risk Centre to assess insurance losses of mNAIS portfolios in India. A crop model is developed using key parameters such as high-resolution gridded weather data, soil types and structures, slope coefficients, irrigation levels and crop-specific growing season parameters. To generate synthetic yields for the last 45 years the model is then driven with historical climate variations. The model resolution is set at 25 x 25 km which approximately corresponds to a sub-district (“block”) on which triggers for mNAIS insurance products apply. Following market practice, other insurance terms such as premium rates and indemnity levels are used at a district level. The synthetic yields are processed to calculate insurance losses to mNAIS portfolios after consideration of original policy terms and conditions.

 

This paper reveals how synthetic yields allow a quantitative and robust assessment of i) the profitability levels of a given mNAIS portfolio and growing season and ii) the expected losses from historical extreme events such as the 1987 and 2002 drought events. Synthetic yields of wheat and rice in Uttar Pradesh are compared to historical to determine the model’s ability to accurately represent climatically-driven variability in yield. Further, outputs of crop models in general are discussed in terms of benefits for the insurance sector including improved risk assessment, risk pricing, risk transfer and risk management and how simulated weather events can be used in crop models to generate several hundreds of years of synthetic yield series.

Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Effective Disaster Risk Management

X. Tang (World Meteorological Organization, Geneva 2, Switzerland)

Abstract details
Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems for Effective Disaster Risk Management

X. Tang (1)
(1) World Meteorological Organization, Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Service Department, Geneva 2, Switzerland

Abstract content

Every year, disasters related to meteorological, hydrological and climate hazards cause significant loss of life, and set back economic and social development by years.  Over the past decade (2005-2014), 3 253 hydrometeorological hazards were reported around the world, resulting in 283,035 deaths and economic losses amounting to US$ 983 million. From 1970 to 2012, storms and floods accounted for 79 per cent of the total number of disasters due to weather, water, and climate extremes and caused 55 per cent of lives lost and 86 per cent of economic losses, while droughts caused 35 per cent of lives lost.  Climate change is exacerbating the impact of hydrometeorological hazards and compounding disaster risk.   Disaster risk reduction is one of the effective ways of climate change adaptation.

 

According to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), effective disaster risk management calls for a paradigm shift from emergency response to a more proactive, holistic and systematic approach with strong focus on risk reduction.  This paradigm shift requires meteorological, hydrological and climate services to support science-based risk management decisions, as well as investments in Early Warning Systems (EWS) which are well recognized as a critical life-saving tool for floods, droughts, storms, bushfires, and other hazards.  The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) who are members of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) made considerable advances in EWS in the recent years, which are characterized by better observation and monitoring of hazards and improved forecasting and warning services. Also, risk assessment and hazard mapping have been of assistance in development planning and increased the awareness and understanding of risk by the people. However, the societal benefits derived from this progress in EWS have been uneven among countries and communities.  Significant gaps remain, especially in servicing the grassroots communities and benefiting poor and vulnerable families.

 

The global changes in societal structures, rapid urbanization, growing exposure of populations and assets, and climate change, altogether result in a highly dynamic and complex state of disaster risk. This situation, together with the increasing globalisation of risk, calls for strengthened EWS at all levels. It also calls for an integrated and holistic approach to early warnings for multiple hazards and risks tailored to user-needs across sectors. In this regard, international and regional collaboration as well as multi-stakeholder partnership at all levels is critically necessary, given the borderless nature of most natural hazards.

 

At the Third United Nations World Conference for Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR), Member States of the United Nations, through the post-2015 framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), agreed on the necessity of enhancing multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS). In response to this call, the multi-stakeholder partnership - International Network for Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems - is forged to facilitate and make available to governments and key stakeholders the necessary technical support for strengthening MHEWS as a national strategy towards building disaster and climate resilience. The network embodies the commitment of its partners to act and work together in advancing MHEWS and to foster multi-stakeholder partnership in DRR for promoting societal resilience.  A comprehensive description of the International Network and its operational procedures to promote effective disaster risk management are presented.

Hurricane Sandy and the Prospects for Climate Resilience and Transformative Adaptation in New York's Jamaica Bay Urban Communities

S. William (City University of New York - Hunter College, New York NY, United States of America)

Abstract details
Hurricane Sandy and the Prospects for Climate Resilience and Transformative Adaptation in New York's Jamaica Bay Urban Communities

S. William (1)
(1) City University of New York - Hunter College, Geography, New York NY, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate change resilience and transformative adaptation requires a greater understanding of how current extreme events influence local and regional development trajectories. Within the New York-New Jersey Metropolitan region, Hurricane Sandy and the immediate response to the storm have created conditions for a potential large-scale transformation with respect to settlement of the coastal zone. While the vulnerability of this region to climate change has been well-documented, Sandy's impact has placed this issue into the forefront of public and private discussions about the appropriate response at every level from individual homeowners who are contemplating whether and how to rebuild after devastating losses, to small coastal municipalities which are considering construction of protective engineering structures and changes in zoning laws, to the City of New York, the states of New York and New Jersey, and the federal government which are engaging in discussions about how to better protect the region's population, property, and vital infrastructure from future storms. These discussions are particularly complex given that they are now beginning to be discussed within the context of emerging and potentially intensifying climate change.

 

This paper presents results of a research study that entailed documentation of the initial phases of a transition in coastal communities and neighborhoods in the Jamaica Bay region of New York City that were heavily impacted by Hurricane Sandy's storm surge and flooding. Drawing upon results of stakeholder and community-based organization interviews, we explore: 1) evidence of socio-ecological system stress and crisis; 2) associations between stress and crisis, the resilience of local stakeholders, and shifts in system-level equilibria; and 3) cross-scale connections between stakeholder responses, socio-ecological system transitions, and broader-scale, community level transformations.  The results indicate the conditions of resilience practice and tranformative adaptation are highly contested and spatially and societally uneven.  This unevenness reveals emerging equity and justice implications within and across the impacted communities. 

Community based disaster risk reduction practises in Bangladesh

A. RAHMAN (Khulna university, KHULNA, Bangladesh)

Abstract details
Community based disaster risk reduction practises in Bangladesh

A. RAHMAN (1)
(1) Khulna university, Urban and Rural Planning, KHULNA, Bangladesh

Abstract content

Community based disaster risk reduction practices in Bangladesh

 

Bangladesh is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. Conversely, this country has proven superb experienced for disaster risk management as the disaster and relief ministry of Bangladesh has envisaged long term risk reduction strategy through community involvement instead of relief distribution. To explore the best practices for sustainability of community based disaster management (CBDM) in Bangladesh is the prime aim of this study. Qualitative approach was adopted to conduct the research. The activity of Disaster risk reduction and emergency management is managed and implemented by disaster management regulatory framework. The active bottom to top level disaster management committee (DMC) headed by elected person in every administrative tier is the main actor for disaster management. According to disaster order, the local level DMC develops risk reduction action and disaster management plan periodically with community involvement aiming to reduce risk during disaster cycle. Following this, district level Risk Reduction action plan and contingency plan has developed and implemented with the active people’s participation and then incorporation Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) into sectoral and local level development plan. Local level disaster management fund creation is another milestone for effective local risk reduction and emergency management. It is also found that the people are placed in central for planning, implementation and monitoring in the risk reduction interventions which creates community ownership and it increase their resiliency to disaster. Social, economic and environmental considerations are also focused in the CBDM. Disaster management network and information center, DRR issues incorporated into text books, school based preparedness programme and capacity building of different stakeholders are the major ongoing initiatives to enhance knowledge and skills for CBDM. In conclusion, community involvement in both software and hardware DRR interventions make sure the sustainability of CBDM in Bangladesh.

 

Key words: Risk Management, CBDM, DMC

Government-NGO Collaboration for Disaster Risk Reduction in India: A SWOT Analysis

J. Parida (National Institute of Technology,, Rourkela, Odisha, India), N. Mishra, (National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, India)

Abstract details
Government-NGO Collaboration for Disaster Risk Reduction in India: A SWOT Analysis

J. Parida (1) ; N. Mishra, (2)
(1) National Institute of Technology,, Dept. of Humanities and Social Sciences, Rourkela, Odisha, India; (2) National Institute of Technology, Dept. of humanities and social sciences, Rourkela, India

Abstract content

Effective and meaningful collaboration between the two stakeholders: Government and Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs) is imperative to attain the goals of Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The involvement of NGOs in all phases of DRR programmes is very crucial because of their grass-root presence and community-focussed approach. Literature documents GO-NGO partnership is a harmonious and constructive approach with mutual respect and recognition based on four aspects such as co-operation, co-option, complimentary and confrontation (UNESCO, 1989; the World Bank, 1990; Nazam, 1999). Though lots of studies have been carried out on GO-NGO collaboration, but on the aspect of disaster management is not explored much. Over the last couple of years, a paradigm shift in the approach to disaster management has been carried out by the Government of India. National policies and Acts like Disaster Management Act, 2005; the National Policy on the Voluntary Sector, 2007 and National Policy on Disaster Management, 2009 emphasize the proper coordination of actions of Government and Non-governmental Organizations in a holistic and proactive manner. However, the study is an attempt to identify the Government and Non-governmental Organizational relationship in disaster risk reduction programmes particularly at district and panchayat level. To accomplish this objective, this study has attempted to find out the answers of certain questions like i) how far the existing GO-NGO collaboration is effective in managing disasters, ii) what are the strengths, weaknesses( internal factors), opportunities and threats (external factors) affecting to achieve the policy-goals of DRR.

In this paper, the study was carried out in Balasore and Kendrapara districts of Odisha, India which are more prone to disasters like floods. Respondents from both Government Organizations and NGOs engaged in disaster management directly or indirectly were interviewed in order to have broader views and opinions on policy matters, problems and potentials and to evaluate their roles in that particular area.  Open and close- ended questions were used for this purpose. A SWOT analysis was used to focus on the strengths and weaknesses of collaboration in relation to efficiency, capacity building, quality and accountability. The study found that the effective collaboration is lacking between Government and NGOs at local level. Majority of the respondents were not satisfied with the existing mechanism of collaboration because of more control and authority over NGOs. There is irregularity of interaction between Government officials and NGOs which makes the collaboration weak. It is recommended that mutual respect, trust, transparency and accountability should be present between both the stakeholders.

 

Learning about climate-related risks: decisions of fish farmers in a role-playing simulation game

P. Lebel (Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand), L. Lebel (Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand)

Abstract details
Learning about climate-related risks: decisions of fish farmers in a role-playing simulation game

P. Lebel (1) ; L. Lebel (1)
(1) Chiang Mai University, Unit for Social and Environmental Research, Chiang Mai, Thailand

Abstract content

Background: Successful river-based cage aquaculture in Northern Thailand depends on managing a number of climate-related risks. Previous surveys and observation of recent high flow or flood events as well as an extreme seasonal drought with low flows have shown that the risks are season-, river- and place-specific implying that the experience and risk profiles of individual farms vary substantially.  Earlier work also showed that farmers use a combination of adjustments to rearing practices, cropping calendars, as well as financial and social measures to manage those risks which they perceive as being manageable. Moreover, individual risks are often addressed through multiple practices and strategies; conversely, a particular management practice can have a bearing on several different risks. Farmers also recognize that risks must be managed at both farm and higher spatial and administrative scales. Social relations and information, and not just culture techniques, play critical roles in managing these complex combinations of risks.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to improve understanding of how farmers make investment decisions in their fish farms when faced with risks from floods that are imperfectly known and which may be changing.

Methods: A role-playing simulation game was created to capture some of the key features of the decision-making context and explored with farmers in the field on hand-held tablets. In the game farmers were given a choice between low, mid or high stocking densities, representing a wide range of levels of investment in each round or crop.  Under normal conditions profits are higher the higher the stocking density, but if it floods losses are correspondingly higher. Selecting a low stocking density thus was a relatively certain bet compared to choosing a high stocking density.  Games consisted of 20 rounds. Each game was randomly assigned to one of 18 different treatments or conditions that included different likelihoods and impacts of floods, investments in adaptation measures, or provision of information. In-depth interviews were conducted post-game to reflect on strategies used in the game and in practice.

Results: As hypothesized more frequent or larger impact floods reduced cumulative profits. Farmers reduced their stocking densities when playing in games with high likelihood of floods but did not do so as expected when impacts were larger. Farmers found it’s harder to learn – choose the most optimal density or improve score within a game – when floods were common or had large impacts. Farmers learnt most when risks were decreasing and least when they were increasing. Providing information about likelihoods prior to a game had no significant impact on performance or decisions, eventhough interviews implied a reasonable understanding of likelihood information.  Within individual games farmers responded to a flood with a reduction in density in the next crop if they had just chosen high, but with a shift to high if they had previously chosen low.  Post-game interviews suggest most farmers found the simulation game represented key features of their decision context, the main discrepancy being inability to take short-term measures to reduce losses when a flood was imminent.

Significance: The methods and findings of this study underline the importance of understanding decision-making behavior around risks for climate risk management. The novel combination of experimental, role-playing and qualitative methods revealed limitations in common assumptions about the ease of learning about likelihoods and consequences from experience.  In the context of climate-related risks and a role-playing game situation, the findings suggest there may also be an emotional rather than purely analytical response to losses. The findings also suggest that decision-support systems for aquaculture need to take into account how recent experiences and other factors influence risk perceptions and decisions.

Small Scale Peri - Urban Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change in Domboshawa, Zimbabwe

V. I. Tanyanyiwa (Zimbabwe Open University, Harare, Zimbabwe)

Abstract details
Small Scale Peri - Urban Farmers' Adaptation to Climate Change in Domboshawa, Zimbabwe

VI. Tanyanyiwa (1)
(1) Zimbabwe Open University, Geography & Environmental Studies Department, Harare, Zimbabwe

Abstract content

Zimbabwe is a semi-arid country heavily reliant on regular rains (generally November to April). Rainfall exhibits considerable spatial and temporal variability characterized by shifts in the onset of rains, increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, increases in the proportion of low rainfall years, decreases in low intensity rainfall events, and increases in the frequency and intensity of mid-season dry-spells. Extreme weather events, namely tropical cyclones and drought have also increased in frequency and intensity in the country. Agriculture is the main source of income for most smallholder farmers who depend on rain fed cropping and livestock rearing in Zimbabwe. Adaptation of agriculture to climate variability and change impacts is vital for sustenance and food security. In order to develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses, it is important to have a clear understanding of the farmers’ perceptions on climate change adaptation at farm-level. Thus, this study identified, evaluated and suggested farm-level adaptation strategies to climate variability and change in Domboshawa; a peri-urban communal area located 26km north east of Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe. Domboshawa is located in Ward 4 of Goromonzi District in Mashonaland East Province. Domboshawa is comprised of about 40 000 households with an average household size of 5 people and with more than 75% of these people relying on farming. The research design used in this study was both qualitative and quantitative (mixed) in nature. A combination of both methods yielded more validity and reliability than using either method on its own. The study of climate change adaptation is focused on inquiry based on the description of experience and such studies adhere to a philosophical of understanding social phenomena which traditionally advocates for the use of qualitative and quantitative data. Simple random sampling was used to select 45 respondents for the questionnaire. The population registers from the Headmen of each of the five wards; Munyawiri, Mawanga, Shumba, Murape and Pote were obtained which constituted the sampling frame. Each entity or individual was selected one at a time and independently therefore ensuring that each entity had an equal chance of being selected from the three selected villages. Purposive sampling was used to select people or organisations that are working in the area. Specific method used in the Quantitative approach is the survey. Qualitative methods used include Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), specifically, resource mapping, historical trend lines, and seasonal and daily activity calendars. Focus group discussions and in-depth case studies were also used. Climate vulnerability and capacity which combines local and scientific knowledge will be used to elicit for knowledge that is locally generated by the farmers to adapt to climate change. Findings revealed that local people perceived changes in rainfall and temperature based on their daily experiences. The majority of the smallholder farmers have adopted measures to address climate change and variability which include crop diversification, soil and water conservation practices, off-farm income activities and integrated crop and livestock diversification. The smallholder farmers are constrained in their daily farming activities by poor infrastructure, inadequate credit facilities as the farmers lack collateral and multifunctional input and output markets. Empirical analysis of rainfall suggests decreasing rainfall trends between 1920 and 2008.The study concluded that there is need to educate farmers on climate change so that they are able to design adaptation strategies that take into cognizance existing local level knowledge and practices on land and water management so as to boost agricultural production. While there are multiple stressors that confront farmers, climate variability and change remain the most critical and exacerbate livelihood insecurity for those farmers with higher levels of vulnerability to these stressors. Climate variability and change might also have a positive impact and localised benefits in the context of structural changes in community’s social organisation and economic activities under certain circumstances. There is need for agricultural research to support appropriate agricultural innovations and development of new livelihood activities emerging as farmers respond to climate variability and change.

Climate Change Perception and Adaptation Strategies In Osun State

R. Adeyemo (obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Climate Change Perception and Adaptation Strategies In Osun State

R. Adeyemo (1)
(1) obafemi Awolowo University, Agricultural Economics, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

The impact of a changing climate are already being felt in Sub Saharan Africa with more droughts, more floods on the coastlines of West Africa, more strong storms and more heat waves taxing individuals firms and governments, drawing resources away from developments. Continuing climate change at current rates will pose increasingly severe challenges for developments. Since over 90% of agriculture in Sub Saharan Africa is rain fed and water supplied are expected to decrease and to become more erratic in most regions, local water management such as micro-catchments, dams and tanks and small irrigation from underground water will be key opportunities for adaptation. Malaria is spreading to higher previously safe altitudes and becoming resistant to drugs.

The objectives of this research are to; determine farmers perception to climate change, based on farmers field experiences, explore innovative adaptation approaches needed in this kind of African environment and examine tested traditional knowledge useful for  adaptation at the local setting

The study is based on four local government areas in Osun State. The areas comprise the food basket areas of the state. Structured questionnaires was developed to generate primary data which are complimented with secondary data. The data collected are subjected to descriptive and statistical analysis.

It is on record that agricultural productivity has declined in all the zones in Nigeria including the areas of study. The region economies are highly dependent on natural resources. This research will be able to indicate strategies for climate change adaptation in agriculture, what lessons have been identified and new innovative approaches that can be applied to similar areas in Sub Saharan Africa

Does poor understanding of causes for climate change lead to bad protective choices?

A. Simao (Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil), G. Guedes (Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil), R. Raad (Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil), G. Assunção (Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil)

Abstract details
Does poor understanding of causes for climate change lead to bad protective choices?

A. Simao (1) ; G. Guedes (2) ; R. Raad (3) ; G. Assunção (4)
(1) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Center for development and regional planning, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; (2) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of Demography, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil; (3) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of economics, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; (4) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Department of statistics, Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Abstract content

In this paper we analyze how people’s perception of causes for climate change, and their understanding of global warming, may be associated with their behavior regarding flood preparedness. We also analyze if their social representation of floods is affected by how they perceive causes for temperature and precipitation locally. Microeconomic models of optimal choice under uncertainty (as in Savage, 1972) are our theoretical basis to link perceived uncertainty regarding local climate parameters with behavioral intention regarding preparedness against flood hazards. Models of choice under uncertainty state that individuals choose a subjective prior to make sense of the expected benefit of their choice. Among risk-averse individuals, increase in uncertainty may lead to overprotective behavior, which results in an aggregate loss of social well-being. Poor understanding or lack of knowledge about causes of increasing uncertainty, such as the one brought about with climate change, may lead to the choice of incorrect subjective priors, adding an extra loss in expected benefits. Combining mathematical simulations with Thematic Net Analysis applied to a representative sample of 1,200 urban households in Governador Valadares, Brazil, 2014, we show that individuals seem to overuse protective measures against flood hazards, resulting in an aggregate social loss. This loss is even higher among risk-averse individuals. Our qualitative results suggest that, as expected, knowledge on local temperature and precipitation change is more common than the understanding of global warming. Among those who acknowledge local climate change, understanding of causes is superficial and often wrong, adding a layer of difficulty for risk-averse individuals to correctly choose a subjective prior that maps risk of floods onto their portfolio of electable actions. Governador Valadares was chosen because river flood is recurrent in the area, reaching thousands of families along the river every other year. The river water is also one of the most polluted among the Brazilian rivers’, producing involuntary risk exposure to waterborne diseases when it floods. The results found in this study highlight the importance of proper scientific communication of causes and consequences of climate change to the general public, in order to increase population support for adaptation policies, as well adherence to protective and preventive behavior.

Heterogeneity of climate change perceptions in two Caboclos' communities of the Amazon Estuary, Brazil

V. Zeidemann (Federal University of Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil), O. Almeida (Federal University of Pará, Belem PA, Brazil), S. Rivero, (Federal University of Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil), C. M. Alvez-Valle, (Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Juiz de Fora, Brazil), N. Moreira, (Federal Institute of Pará, Belém, Brazil)

Abstract details
Heterogeneity of climate change perceptions in two Caboclos' communities of the Amazon Estuary, Brazil

V. Zeidemann (1) ; O. Almeida (2) ; S. Rivero, (1) ; CM. Alvez-Valle, (3) ; N. Moreira, (4)
(1) Federal University of Pará, Economic Graduation Program, Belém, Pará, Brazil; (2) Federal University of Pará, NAEA, Belem PA, Brazil; (3) Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Ecology, Juiz de Fora, Brazil; (4) Federal Institute of Pará, Fishing resources, Belém, Brazil

Abstract content

There is a general consensus that peoples and societies perceptions are a necessary prerequisite for adaptation and responses to climate change (Maddison 2006, Brain et al. 2009, Capstick et al. 2015). However, climate change impacts, and consequently perceptions, are unevenly distributed with regional, and even local, disparities (Tambo and Abdoulaye 2013). For example, scholars suggest that farmers that have more experience are more likely to perceive climate changes (Maddison 2007, Silvestri et al. 2012). In addition, household characteristics, such as household head’s gender, age, level of education, and access on information about climate change, have also been identified has important factors affecting perceptions of climate change (Deressa et al. 2009). Since adaptation to climate change comprises a two-step process: the ability to perceive changes, and subsequently, to respond to those changes, the understanding of the heterogeneity related to perceptions of climate change among individuals and societies is very important when fostering adaptation to climate change.

Our study aims to explore (1) how caboclos communities’ residents in two islands of the Amazon Estuary, Brazil, perceived climate changes (2) how those perceptions varied among respondents and communities, and (3) what factors influenced perception heterogeneity to climate change. The caboclos communities studied have their livelihoods based mainly on açaí berries collection, fishing activities, and shrimp harvest. Therefore, we explore how those communities perceived climate change impacts, specifically temperature, rainfall and tide level changes, on those three economic activities, and what factors determine perceptions variation regarding the climate change impacts on those activities.

To collect data on how caboclos communities perceived climate changes on temperature, rainfall and tide level, and their impacts on açaí berries collection, fishing, and shrimp harvest, we applied structured interviews to 239 residents of Arumanduba and São João Batista communities, in the municipality of Abaetetuba, Pará state. Besides climate change perception questions, we also gathered information on gender, age, level of education, time of residence at the community, property size, and filiation to fishers association and workers unions. We also applied focus group discussions to further understand residents’ perceptions.

Preliminary results showed that perception to climate chance varied according climate change type (temperature, rainfall, and tide level changes) and also on the type of economic activity being impacted by those changes. Gender and affiliation to fishers association and worker unions seems to influence perceptions regarding rainfall and tide level changes, but not on temperature changes. Further analyses will be performed to refine those preliminaries results, and also to determine if residents’ age, level of education, time of residence, and property size affect their perception regarding climate changes occurring in the last 20 years, and on the impact of those changes on fishing, acai berries harvest and shrimp harvest activities.

Knowledge on how caboclos communities perceive climate changes and their impacts, but also the factors that affect the way those communities perceive those changes and impacts, are extremely important to assist policy aiming to foster adaptation and also decrease vulnerability of those communities to future climate changes.

A Sense of Place: Social Recovery in the Post-Disaster Reconstruction in Sichuan, China

H. Wu (Sichuan Agricultural University, Dujiangyan, Sichuan , China), C. Hou, (Sichuan Agricultural University, Dujiangyan, Sichuan, China)

Abstract details
A Sense of Place: Social Recovery in the Post-Disaster Reconstruction in Sichuan, China

H. Wu (1) ; C. Hou, (2)
(1) Sichuan Agricultural University, School of Architecture and Urban-Rural Planning, Dujiangyan, Sichuan , China; (2) Sichuan Agricultural University, School of architecture and urban-rural planning, Dujiangyan, Sichuan, China

Abstract content

Climate change has been triggering frequent global environmental crisis. Those environmental crisis bring plenty unwanted relocations, which deeply affect survivors' physical and social environments. While, most post-disaster reconstruction and recovery give predominant priority to the physical reconstruction, by timely producing enough housing and sound infrastructures for survivors, there is a lack of attention on the social recovery of the survivors, such as assisting them settling in the new environments. Taking the post-disaster reconstruction conducted after the Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan, China, May 12, 2008 as an example, this paper addresses the problem that the lack of synchronization and imbalance between physical and social reconstruction resulted in the most earthquake survivors to experience unstable attachments to their new environments. Based on this phenomenon, this paper presents a reflection on how post-disaster physical reconstruction (particularly in China) could be improved by utilizing the survivors’ social and individual memories. Focusing on the memory workshops and walk-along interviews with the local earthquake survivors, this paper uses the method of storytelling to examine memory’s function in the earthquake survivors’ relocation process. This paper argues that the local earthquake survivors’ memories of their daily lives and their use of spaces in their original homes provided means to support their social recovery process, assisting them to grow attachments to their new dwellings, to reestablish their social networks, and to redevelop a sense of place. This paper suggests that the local residents’ place-related social and individual memories should be considered as a new method for policy makers, urban designers and social workers to understand the changing of natural environment and how this is impacting humanity.

Perception, Collapse and Climate Change: an Anthropological Theory Approach

F. Miguel (Universidade de Brasilia, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil), I. Ibiapina (Universidade de Brasilia, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil), M. Curi (Universidade de Brasilia, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil)

Abstract details
Perception, Collapse and Climate Change: an Anthropological Theory Approach

F. Miguel (1) ; I. Ibiapina (2) ; M. Curi (1)
(1) Universidade de Brasilia, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentavel, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil; (2) Universidade de Brasilia, Antropologia social, Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Abstract content

In this paper, we intend to discuss from the point of view of current anthropological theories, the possibility of misperception of climate changes in human societies that historically have collapsed, as well as those that are in process. We analyze critically the ethnographic cases presented in Jared Diamond’s book Collapse, from the ecological theories and Tim Ingold's ecology of life. Our intent is to understand if the new ontologies proclaimed in those anthropological theories, which deny categories such "misperception", since perception is not supposed to be a vision of nature out there, but a process among different person-organisms in continuous changeable environment, can deal with the historical experiences of collective collapse.

Public perception of climatic change and the risk control action of the government in metropolitan area of Belém, Brazil

S. Thomas (Federal University of Pará - UFPA, Belem, Pará, Brazil), O. Almeida (UFPA, Belem PA, Brazil), C. C. C. Gena (Federal University of Pará - UFPA, Belem, Pará, Brazil), S. Rivero, (Federal University of Pará - UFPA, Belem, Pará, Brazil), V. D. A. Atila (The Fluminense Federal University, UFF, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

Abstract details
Public perception of climatic change and the risk control action of the government in metropolitan area of Belém, Brazil

S. Thomas (1) ; O. Almeida (2) ; CCC. Gena (3) ; S. Rivero, (4) ; VDA. Atila (5)
(1) Federal University of Pará - UFPA, Centre for Higer Studies on Amazon -NAEA, Belem, Pará, Brazil; (2) UFPA, NAEA, Belem PA, Brazil; (3) Federal University of Pará - UFPA, Economy, Belem, Pará, Brazil; (4) Federal University of Pará - UFPA, Institute os social science icsa, Belem, Pará, Brazil; (5) The Fluminense Federal University, UFF, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract content

The extreme hydroclimatic changes such as floods, drought, soil erosion and collapse of river margins expose several negative impacts on the daily life of the population who live in the metropolitan city of Belém, in the Amazon region of Brazil. The characteristics of spatial occupation of the city favour the risk associated with these changes and the whole population is vulnerable to it.

The objective of this study was to analyse the perceptions of students of Federal University of Pará, Brazil (UFPA) about climate change risk caused by extreme hydroclimatic events in the metropolitan city of Belem and their vision about the Government action to reduce the risk caused by these extreme events.  In addition, the research analyses public opinion in relation to citizens' participation in decision-making and confidence in the ability of the State in risk governance.

The main hypothesis of this study is that the public opinion on the perception of problems related to extreme hydroclimatic changes is important for making public policies related to risk governance by the State.

This research employed the same structure of questions of Tien (2013)[i] used to evaluate the perception of risk in relation to climate change in Taiwan. The questionnaires were applied to all undergraduate students of economics from Federal University of Para, from the morning and night course during the months of May to June 2014.

In the perception of respondents about climate change, 78% think the importance of climate change is not exaggerated. Despite the accelerated industrialization and commercial farming are important factors for economic growth, 71% of respondents agree that combating climate change would be favourable to the Brazilian economy. More than half of total respondents (51 percent) agrees that a possible implementation of environmental protection would facilitate the Brazilian economic development and 75% of the respondents disagrees with the permanence of oil subsidies.

About 62% of respondents are not willing to pay more taxes on clean energy and environment. It is noticed that the population support Government initiative to mitigate the effect of climate change, but they are not ready to pay for it.  In the opinion of 54% of students, the information available on the origin of climate change is insufficient and do not contribute to understand the actual situation of the problem. A significant 72% percentage of students considers insufficient the actions of private companies to deal with climate change. They believe that the Government should establish policies to mitigate climate changes.

The study pointed out that the lack of communication and transparency of Government hinders actions that could be undertaken on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Most respondents disagree that the Government grants subsidies to fossil fuel companies. At the same time, they are not willing to pay more tax to fund climate change mitigation.  The study shows that there is a perception of climate change risk by the population and there is demand for more transparent communication available to them of public policies adopted by the government on risk governance.

[i] For more information, refers to TIEN, Chou Kuei. The public perception of climate change in Taiwan and its paradigm shift. Energy Policy. n.61, 2013. p. 1252-1260.

Acknowledgement: IDRC, CAPES and FAPESPA

“Visions of the future” from selected scenarios: Science warnings, the changing of scarcity concept and prospects for a new society

R. Corazza (Geosciences Institute / State University of Campinas - IG/UNICAMP, Campinas, SP, Brazil), P. S. Fracalanza, (Institute of Economics, Campinas, SP, Brazil), E. Ortega, (Food Engeneering Faculty, Campinas, Brazil), M. J. Bacic, (Institute of Economics, Campinas, SP, Brazil)

Abstract details
“Visions of the future” from selected scenarios: Science warnings, the changing of scarcity concept and prospects for a new society

R. Corazza (1) ; PS. Fracalanza, (2) ; E. Ortega, (3) ; MJ. Bacic, (2)
(1) Geosciences Institute / State University of Campinas - IG/UNICAMP, Science and Technological Policies, Campinas, SP, Brazil; (2) Institute of Economics, Campinas, SP, Brazil; (3) Food Engeneering Faculty, Ecological engeneering and applied informatics laboratory, Campinas, Brazil

Abstract content

Most of conventional, non-scientific or specialized media nowadays focus on the problems of financial-economic international crisis and on worldwide terrorism actions. Challenges to curb Climate Change and the other major planetary environmental problems appear in the main information vehicles as specific topics, frequently disconnected to these other urgent and fair issues of economic possibilities of the world and the global safety under the menaces of the growing forces of fundamentalism and intolerance.

Yet, these planetary challenges are deeply imbedded in our social, economic and geopolitical world. Facing the first ones will require profound and extensive reorientation of the latter. There will be no possible escape from a dystopic future for the great majority unless this fundamental interdependence are recognized and proper, creative faced by world leaders, jointly with citizens, businesspersons, and society as a whole.

The scientific literature on the future prospects of the world in this sense spreads from late 1960s to the present and brings together a set of issues that can be enlightening when it comes to devise possible paths to alternative socio-economic and political arrangements to face current predicaments of humankind.

This paper draws on the results of a critic literature review on the topic of the visions of future, highlighting the contributions of the reviewed works on three selected and interrelated issues: Science warnings, the underlying scarcity concept (being it openly stated or not) and the prospects of the future of the society (whether it be utopian or dystopian).

The Table 1, below, summarize the contributions reviewed, its authors and the disciplinary scientific field, and institutional and historical contexts within which they have been proposed. The main, even if not the unique, criteria for selecting these works were the adherence to the theme and the prominence of them in the literature reviewed. The sources employed as bases for the survey were SciELO, Periódicos CAPES and Scholar Google for the systematic review and selected books and papers for backward and forward chaining review. 

Table 1. Visions of the Future: contributions and reviewed authors

Contribution

Date

Authors

Environment, Power and Society

1971

Howard Odum

The Limits to Growth

1972

Donella and Dennis Meadows and colleagues

Beyond the Limits

1992

Idem

Catastrophe or New Society: a Latinamerican World Model

1976

O. Herrera and colleagues

Great Transition: the promise and lure of the times ahead

2002

Raskin, P., T. Banuri, T.; Gallopın, G.; Gutman, P.; Hammond, A.; Kates, R. and Swart, R.

IPCC (Intergovernamental Panel on Climate Change) 4th Assessment Report

2007

R. K. Pachauri; A. Reisinger

Ecosystems And Human Well-Being

2005

Millenium Ecosystems Assessment

The main purpose of this paper is to draw from the reviewing of these selected contributions a set of answers for the following questions: i) which are the scientific warnings made in terms of environmental change?; ii) which is the underlying concept of scarcity?; iii) which are the ideas or the prospects for the reorganization of social and economic life?; iv) which roles are social and economic actors supposed to play  in order to implement this reorganization?

Misperceptions of Climate Change among Family Farmers – The Case of Mato Grosso State

G. Litre, (University of Brasília, Brasília / DF, Brazil), S. Nasuti (University of Brasília, Brasília / DF, Brazil), M. Bursztyn, (University of Brasília, Brasília / DF, Brazil), C. Saito, (University of Brasília, Brasília / DF, Brazil), S. C. Da (Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Caceres, Brazil), C. Henke, (University of Brasília, Brasília / DF, Brazil)

Abstract details
Misperceptions of Climate Change among Family Farmers – The Case of Mato Grosso State

G. Litre, (1) ; S. Nasuti (1) ; M. Bursztyn, (1) ; C. Saito, (1) ; SC. Da (2) ; C. Henke, (3)
(1) University of Brasília, Center for sustainable development, Brasília / DF, Brazil; (2) Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso, Caceres, Brazil; (3) University of Brasília, Ecoa, Brasília / DF, Brazil

Abstract content

In Brazil, climatological data has shown a steady increase of temperature levels in all Brazilian regions over the last 50 years.  On the other side, rainfall levels records have remained stable in many areas of this country. This is the case of several areas of the Mato Grosso (MT) state, Brazil’s second largest producer of agricultural products such as soybean, and sugarcane, and one of the most threatened by climate change. Approximately 70% of the surveyed areas of MT, including the Chapada dos Guimarães in the Cerrado biome, have revealed stable rainfall levels between 1980 and 2010. However, when interviewed about climate change, the vast majority of family farmers pointed out to a perceived decrease of rainfall levels and suggested that this was the main reason for their economic losses at the farm level and a threat to the sustainability of their livelihoods.

In this regard, this project aims at understanding why so many family farmers wrongly attribute their loss of agricultural productivity to a decline in rainfall levels that has not been registered by meteorological stations, thus mal-adapting to the challenges that climatic change poses to their livelihoods and to the overall sustainability of family farming in the state.

How anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the odds of individual extreme weather events – a communication opportunity

F. Otto (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), K. Haustein, (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), P. Uhe, (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), M. Allen (University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom), H. Cullen (Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States of America)

Abstract details
How anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the odds of individual extreme weather events – a communication opportunity

F. Otto (1) ; K. Haustein, (1) ; P. Uhe, (1) ; M. Allen () ; H. Cullen (2)
(1) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; (2) Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States of America

Abstract content

Warming of the global climate system is unequivocal, predominantly due to rising greenhouse gases with direct implications from rising mean global temperatures for some slow-onset events such as sea level rise, which can therefore be linked directly to past emissions. In many regions, however, extreme weather events, like heatwaves, floods, and droughts, are associated with greater loss and damage. An increase in average temperatures will lead to an increase in the frequency or magnitude of some extreme weather events including heat waves and droughts. For example, the deaths of at least thirty-five thousand people in Europe are attributable to the record-breaking heat wave of 2003. Extreme heat events and subsequent droughts can be directly linked to the loss of human life as well as damage to, or the significant diminishment of economic productivity.

The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) has demonstrated over the last decade that it is now possible to attribute the fraction of risk caused by anthropogenic climate change to particular weather events and their associated losses. In other words, PEA enables us to give a quantitative estimate of how much anthropogenic climate change is costing us today.

This ability could potentially have a huge impact on climate change communication. Extreme events, in particular those that are not just rare from a meteorological perspective but also lead to societal and monetary damages and interrupt everyday life usually receive a very high level of public attention. If attribution studies show that a particular event was indeed made more likely due to anthropogenic climate change, i.e. anthropogenic climate change has increased the chance of the event occurring at this point in time, human induced climate change is transformed from something that is happening at some point in the future to a real threat in the here and now. Previously these studies took months to accomplish, delivering results long after public attention has peaked. Through a new partnership between Climate Central, a non-profit organisation providing TV weather forecasters with climate information, the University of Oxford Environmental Change Institute and other academic partners this huge communication opportunity will be taken to the next level by building a modelling and communication framework that provides decision-makers, and in particular the public, with the means to make clear the quantitative connections between greenhouse gas emissions and extreme weather events in real-time.

This fast turnaround ensures that any communication opportunity will have maximum impact as an extreme event only remains topical while it is unfolding. By hearing the science as the public experience the event, they will really begin to fully understand climate change.

The Role of Climate Change Concern in the Acceptability of Energy Supply Technologies and Energy Demand Reduction

W. Poortinga (Cardiff University, Cardiff, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
The Role of Climate Change Concern in the Acceptability of Energy Supply Technologies and Energy Demand Reduction

W. Poortinga (1)
(1) Cardiff University, Welsh School of Architecture, Cardiff, United Kingdom

Abstract content

As a large proportion of carbon dioxide emissions are generated by the domestic sector, individuals need to make drastic changes to their current lifestyle in order to play their part in climate change mitigation. Not only do they need to change their personal behaviour, they also have to accept new low-carbon technologies in order to decarbonise the energy they are using. This paper presents the results of large-scale nationally-representative survey (n=1,822) on public perceptions of climate change and energy futures in Britain. It examines the role of climate change perceptions in the willingness to accept low-carbon energy-supply technologies, such as solar and wind energy, and their willingness to change their behaviour to reduce energy demand. The study found that concern about climate change was strongly associated with the acceptability of both demand-side measures and supply-side technologies. In addition, the study found that personal values and environmental identity are important factors in the willingness to accept low-carbon technologies and energy demand reduction. It appeared that people with traditional conservative values were less likely to engage in low-carbon behaviours due to higher levels of concern about energy security. Individuals with self-transcendence values were more willing to engage in low-carbon behaviours and to accept low-carbon energy-supply technologies as a result of higher levels of environmental identity, concern about climate change, and personal norms. The results of this study will be put into a wider programme of research on public perceptions of climate change and energy choices to discuss the role of human choices and behaviour in the transition to a low-carbon economy. Furthermore, international comparisons will be made to explore different views on what are acceptable transition pathways. The paper will be part of the session "Towards solutions that transcend technology and markets: the role of choices and behaviour change" (3316 - Behaviour Change).

Navigating the line between participation and tyranny - Lessons learned in using participatory methods to engage community members in pro-environmental behaviours in rural China: The Case of Farm in a Box

E. Kennedy (Lund University, Lund, Sweden), S. Evans, (Good to China, Shanghai, China)

Abstract details
Navigating the line between participation and tyranny - Lessons learned in using participatory methods to engage community members in pro-environmental behaviours in rural China: The Case of Farm in a Box

E. Kennedy (1) ; S. Evans, (2)
(1) Lund University, Social Work, Lund, Sweden; (2) Good to China, Shanghai, China

Abstract content

Discussions and responses to climate change have predominantly remained at the global and national levels with limited inclusion of people who live in regions that are heavily impacted by and vulnerable to climate change. The implications of climate change at the local level and the possible positive impact of locally driven climate change actions are consistently overlooked within the international community of climate change experts. It is necessary to not only include, but to also work closely with local communities in the discussion of climate change, sustainable development and resilience building as local communities provide a source of local knowledge rooted in cultural traditions as well as a source of community level action. However, navigating between participatory methods and tyranny is an issue that has received attention within participatory research and community engagement literature. Focusing on the case study of Farm in a Box, a sustainable food source that promotes pro-environmental behaviours and education opportunities, we will examine the lessons learned in the process of using participatory methods to engage community members in pro-environmental behaviours in rural China.

How do perceptions of climate change affect performance of risk management instruments & farmer welfare in Malawi?

R. Cavatassi (Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome, Italy), A. Cattaneo (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome, Italy), J. Graff-Zivin, (UC San Diego, San Diego, United States of America), N. Mccarthy, (LEAD Analytics, Washington, DC, United States of America), L. Lipper, (FAO of the UN, Rome, Italy)

Abstract details
How do perceptions of climate change affect performance of risk management instruments & farmer welfare in Malawi?

R. Cavatassi (1) ; A. Cattaneo (2) ; J. Graff-Zivin, (3) ; N. Mccarthy, (4) ; L. Lipper, (5)
(1) Food and Agriculture Organization, Agricultural development Economics, Rome, Italy; (2) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Agricultural Development Economics Division, Rome, Italy; (3) UC San Diego, Economics, San Diego, United States of America; (4) LEAD Analytics, Washington, DC, United States of America; (5) FAO of the UN, Agricultural development economics division, Rome, Italy

Abstract content

This paper provides new insights on how climate change affects Malawian farm households’ risk management options. The options considered in our farm-level stochastic simulation model are (i) the adoption of risk-smoothing farm practices, (ii) diversification among crops, (iii) safety nets, and (iv) other public interventions such as improving extension and providing better climate information. A traditional risk management approach typically assumes that probabilities are known by all actors. However, climate change can affect the probability and severity of yield losses in ways that are difficult for individual farmers to incorporate in their decision-making.

Simulations are run solving a stochastic farm model where a farmer chooses a staple crop and technique (conservation or traditional) plus up to one diversification crop to maximize utility within a given Malawian Agro-ecological zone (AEZ). The staple crops to choose from are local maize or hybrid maize, whereas the diversification crops are Groundnut Chalimbana, Groundnut CG7, Beans, & Pigeon Peas. Conservation techniques that the farmer can choose are soil & water conservation, intercropping, or combining the two.  

In the results presented here we focus on how improving climate information available to farmers changes the expected outcomes.  We refer to a misalignment in expectations when farmers have insufficient information to evaluate the change in systemic risk brought about by climate change and behave as if this distribution had not changed. From the results in Table 1, we observe that (i) mean profits can be greatly affected by lack of information under increased variability of rainfall in sub-humid areas, and (ii) an increased variability of temperature in semi-arid areas can have a considerable negative effect if not anticipated.

Table 1. Impact on mean profits of increasing by 30% the standard deviation of rainfall (Rain SD) or of temperature (Temp SD), depending on whether the change in variability is correctly anticipated by the farmer or not (unanticipated).

 

 

Mean Profits (Malawian Kwachas)

Malawi AEZs

 Scenarios

Anticipated climate change

Unanticipated climate change

Tropic warm/ semi-arid

Baseline

5,578

5,578

Rain SD + 30%

2,430

2,102

Temp SD + 30%

6,056

4,901

    

Tropic warm/ sub-humid

Baseline

5,859

5,859

Rain SD + 30%

7,950

2,244

Temp SD + 30%

3,627

3,627

 

 

 

 

Tropic cool /semiarid & subhumid

Baseline

10,719

10,719

Rain SD + 30%

4,980

4,729

Temp SD + 30%

7,944

9,877

 

In our analysis, improving information available to farmers addresses this misalignment by providing the correct probability distribution to farmers managing risk. The paper then provides insight on the robustness of different instruments, such as diversification or safety nets in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of weather events, and the value of providing information in the efficiency of such instruments.  Budgetary implications are also explored for different instruments such as weather index insurance and safety nets. Results indicate that misalignment of farmer expectations may cause large budgetary outlays by government due to a lack of appropriate adaptation decisions when only limited information is available to farmers.

The media coverage of climate change and air pollution in French press

M. Madelin (University Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France), S. Duché, (University Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France)

Abstract details
The media coverage of climate change and air pollution in French press

M. Madelin (1) ; S. Duché, (1)
(1) University Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Umr prodig, Paris, France

Abstract content

Climate change and air pollution has become two major concerns of the French, objects of issues, debates and, therefore, recurring topics in the media. The study of a theme through its media treatment is rich and can illustrate the interface between scientific knowledge and its return to the public. Or it can reveal a potential difference between the two, and more widely be used to understand representations of phenomena through the words and their associations.

This paper presents a media coverage analysis on climate change and air pollution in French national newspapers, from a corpus of 2.961 press articles. The temporal study shows mainly a relative recent and strong media influence of climate change, and to a less extent a response to air pollution episode and policy measures. The semantic analysis identifies four lexical fields: economy, transport, legislative framework - policy and environment. Finally, the articles with the terms of climate and weather show a diversity of approach taken by reporters and are found in various topics (from a HAC). Between these two items, the media treatment of air pollution has been very little covered in contrast to controversial issues around climate change, but the two are often related, sometimes not in a relevant manner.

Perceptions of climate change in the mainstream media as portrayed through the coverage of the water crisis in São Paulo

R. Henriques Melo-Santos (INPE - National Institute For Space Research, São José dos Campos - SP, Brazil), C. Nolasco (INPE - Brazilian National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil), M. Lahsen, (National Institute for Space Research (INPE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil)

Abstract details
Perceptions of climate change in the mainstream media as portrayed through the coverage of the water crisis in São Paulo

R. Henriques Melo-Santos (1) ; C. Nolasco (2) ; M. Lahsen, (3)
(1) INPE - National Institute For Space Research, Earth System Science, São José dos Campos - SP, Brazil; (2) INPE - Brazilian National Institute for Space Research, CCST - Earth System Science Centre, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil; (3) National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Earth system science centre (ccst), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

Abstract content

For many decades, drought has been a very cruel and close reality to millions living in the Northeast region of Brazil. By contrast, for those in the Southern regions of the country, water scarcity has rarely been a matter of concern and it was associated only with remote, socio-economically deprived regions. That reality changed in 2014 when the megacity of São Paulo, home to 12 million people, suffered a serious water crisis. The magnitude of the water crisis and the speed in which it occurred took many by surprise and it is referred to as the most severe in decades. Its consequences unfolded throughout the region like an epidemic and turned into front page news. Among the causes of the water crisis listed by the media, was irresponsible management of water resources, excessive water use by the population and an extreme environmental situation. Scientists have been warning that intense drought and lack of rainfall throughout Brazil are a result of climate change (Gutiérrez et al., 2014), and that further warming and reduction in precipitation is projected for the southeast of Brazil for the coming decades (Chou et al., 2014). The present study examines the representations of climate change in the mainstream media, as portrayed through the coverage of the water crisis in São Paulo. It also examines the importance given to scientific data on its reports. It seeks to understand how the most influential outlet press, the newspaper Folha de São Paulo, explains the causes of the water crisis, in particular the extent to which it covered governance and climate change. Attention is given to whether the management and mitigation of the water crisis addressed in the news, took into consideration knowledge and data produced by the scientific community. A sample of reports, published during the period of August 2014 to March 2015 in the newspaper Folha de São Paulo, were classified by section and type, and thus, identifying whether the newspaper relates the crisis to climate change or to governance issues or both, and whether the newspaper content is based on scientific or non-scientific information. Understanding how issues are framed in this and other national news media is important because they shape public knowledge, customs and perceptions of the Brazilian society.

Cultural biases on climate change discourse – Findings on multinational survey in ICA-RUS Project

S. Munakata (Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting Co,. Ltd., Tokyo, Japan), Y. Fujigaki (The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan), E. Yagi (Osaka University, Osaka, Japan), Y. Yamanouchi (Osaka University, Osaka, Japan)

Abstract details
Cultural biases on climate change discourse – Findings on multinational survey in ICA-RUS Project

S. Munakata (1) ; Y. Fujigaki (2) ; E. Yagi (3) ; Y. Yamanouchi (3)
(1) Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting Co,. Ltd., Environment and Energy Dept., Tokyo, Japan; (2) The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; (3) Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

Abstract content

Climate change discourse tends to be framed by a particular set of values. There are different fundamental worldviews and perspectives jostling for position, and disagreement among the prescriptions for climate change can partly be explained by the underlying antinomy.

 

Nation-wide Web surveys were administered in 3 countries (Japan, USA and Germany). Respondents were questioned social value preferences relating to Mary Douglas’ grid and group scores, preference on global mitigation target, and risk perceptions on climate change impacts. Then they were shown mitigation options with its GHGs reduction amount, cost, uncertainties and side effects. Finally, they can choose cost allocation options between citizens and industries, and between developed and developing countries. Respondents could immediately confirm the result of their selections on the Web in terms of estimated temperature increase in 2100 and burden of mitigation costs so as to respondents can examine the balance and consistencies among target, costs and GHG reductions.

 

The cultural characteristics of each country are shown in grid and group score distributions. The respondents in USA put emphasis on interests of individuals (“low-group”). Germany shows tendency of sharing common target (“high-group”). Japan can be characterized by the narrowest distribution biased toward hierarchical tendency (“high-grid and high-group”). These cultural biases are reflected in the survey results. The public of USA doesn’t like legal binding of global common target, in contrast to the other high-group countries. The public of Japan accepted harder GHG reduction efforts in developed countries than in developing countries, in contrast to the other low-grid countries insist on the same level efforts.

 

In group interviews, public of Japan often shows the tendency to leave decisions on climate change to his institutions. This observation is another evidence of institutional nature of Japanese society.

 

The Ministry of the Environment, Japan established an interdisciplinary research project, Integrated Climate Assessment – Risks, Uncertainties and Society (ICA-RUS) conducted by Dr. Seita Emori, National Institute for Environmental Studies. This research is a part of the ICA-RUS project.

Challenges to climate change adaptation: A case study on flood risk perceptions in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment, Australia

M. Shafaq (University of New South Wales, NSW, Australia)

Abstract details
Challenges to climate change adaptation: A case study on flood risk perceptions in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment, Australia

M. Shafaq (1)
(1) University of New South Wales, Institute of Environmental Studies, NSW, Australia

Abstract content

The Australian climate is characterised by extreme weather conditions. Future unpredictability has placed pressure on government agencies to increase their effectiveness of managing adaptation to extreme weather events, increase coordination and improve risk communication and community participation. Efforts to increase adaptation to climate change at different levels of government and among a wide-range of stakeholders require identifying and understanding the barriers that hinder adaptive actions. This abstract is part of a PhD research that looks in to barriers to flood management under a changing climate and intends to identify bottlenecks that create maladaptation. The research takes the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment as case example. The catchment is characterised by ambitious development goals with 180,000 new developments in the floodplain of the two major rivers (Hawkesbury and Nepean Rivers) of this catchment, unique topography that increases the risk of floods in this regions, and challenge to maintain conservation of the Blue Mountains as a World Heritage Site.

This research paper explores the perceptions of residents to flood risks to their property and the likelihood of other factors that can influence this perception and hence their low response to take action in government-led measures to mitigate impacts of climate change. The data was collected through on-line, face-to-face and postal surveys. A total of 540 postal surveys were distributed and 81 face-to face surveys were conducted from residents residing in the Hawkesbury-Nepean catchment across five suburbs. Findings of this research show that generally communities have a low perception of flood risks in the region and that factors such as proximity to the Rivers, gender, age and duration of living in the area can influence perceptions of flood risks to property. These factors influence an individual’s attitude to either be proactively engaged in adaptive action or continue to remain in denial. Another important aspect that was identified to influence perception was the false expectation of communities of government authorities. Government authorities were seen as responsible for ‘keeping communities’ safe’ and so if development is approved on floodplains it translates as a flood-safe region. The outcome of this research is to provide a better understanding of communities residing in inland floodplains to contribute towards developing effective risk communication strategies thus enabling better management of floods and achieving increased level of support from the communities.

Addressing the Adversities of Climate Change through Mindfulness and Resilience : A Conceptual Framework

P. Rishi (Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal,MP, India)

Abstract details
Addressing the Adversities of Climate Change through Mindfulness and Resilience : A Conceptual Framework

P. Rishi (1)
(1) Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal,MP, India

Abstract content

In India, climate change could represent additional pressure on ecological and socio-economic systems that are already under stress due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. With its huge and growing population, long densely populated and low lying coast lines, and an economy that is closely tied to natural resource base, India is considerably vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change, which requires exorbitant efforts on the part of respective communities to cope and adapt. There is a need to build a resilient community  full of eco consciousness and mindfulness ,capable to face climate change and associated disaster risk with psychological hardiness and strong will power. For that, governments need to be aware of current and future potential risk and take more initiative in order to enhance the eco consciousness and resilience of the urban systems and communities. Co-adaptation is one such form of collective action whereby stakeholders of a community work together with a government agency to undertake some aspects of environmental issues which can be potentially threat full to the changing climate (Tompkins and Adger, 2004).

 

Socio psychological and spiritual factors  play an important role in this regard to make serious efforts to modify  and alter the life styles and behaviours of people in order to prove themselves as environmentally sensitive citizens across the planet, better suited to today’s environmental needs. Life style change also  helped in developing  human resilience to climatic variability  in a more positive way to promote subjective as well as global  well being  .Implications for psychological and Spiritual health were also discussed.

Dangerous climate here and now: Do our indicators let us perceive the signals? The 2003 heat wave in France

M. Poumadere (SYMLOG France, Paris, France), C. Mays (SYMLOG France, Paris, France)

Abstract details
Dangerous climate here and now: Do our indicators let us perceive the signals? The 2003 heat wave in France

M. Poumadere (1) ; C. Mays (1)
(1) SYMLOG France, Research and consulting, Paris, France

Abstract content

Fifteen thousand persons died in the French episode of heat wave in August 2003, during the hottest summer in Europe since 1500. Yet it took months or years for this count to be recognized. The heat wave dangers resulted from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures were combined here with socioeconomic vulnerability and in particular, social attenuation of hazards – a multi-form inability of individuals and institutions to recognize that people were dying of the heat. The French experience confirmed research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France in  2003 had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave’s profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Entrenched indicators can mask or reveal the dangers of climate change. Improving indicators might be a significant lever in bringing about more sustainable behaviors.

Exploring The Concerns Of Emerging Climate Sceptic Groups Within Civil Society

M. Bliss (The REAL Institute, EDON, France)

Abstract details
Exploring The Concerns Of Emerging Climate Sceptic Groups Within Civil Society

M. Bliss (1)
(1) The REAL Institute, EDON, France

Abstract content

Exploring the concerns of emerging climate sceptic groups within civil society - a growing proportion of society are using the information age to research the past, observe the present and are subsequently becoming organised to protect the future, reflecting a perception of man's influence on climate change - whether intentional or unintentional.

The green of your eyes: Social judgments of different types of pro-environmental behaviours

R. Bertoldo, (ISCTE-IUL, Cis, Lisbon University Institute, Lisbon, Portugal), P. Castro (ISCTE-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract details
The green of your eyes: Social judgments of different types of pro-environmental behaviours

R. Bertoldo, (1) ; P. Castro (2)
(1) ISCTE-IUL, Cis, Lisbon University Institute, Lisbon, Portugal; (2) ISCTE-IUL, social psychology, Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract content

There is today an international consensus on the fact that our societies have to alter the way they interact with the environment (IPCC, 2013). Today, environmental claims are part of our daily lives to the point that they integrate different types of environmentally significant behaviours (Stern, 1999): activist, non-activist and private sphere behaviours. A previous study has shown that pro-environmental behaviours can be associated with the perception of both competence and warmth – i.e., people that present them are seen as more competent and warm that people that do not. However, it is not tested whether if these pro-environmental behaviours were activist ones, clearly questioning the current state of affairs, they would still be regarded as competent and warm. Therefore, this study had the objective of comparing different types of environmentally significant behaviours in terms of their attribution of competence and warmth. To do so, we presented participants with a target that presented either an activist behaviours (demonstration), a non-activist behaviour from the public sphere (signing a petition), or a private sphere behaviour (purchase of organic products, recycling and saving water and energy). Then participants were asked to form an impression of the target and attribute to it adjectives from the competence and warmth dimensions. Results show that targets presenting any type of environmentally significant behaviour equally are seen as competent. Where targets are differentiated is in their perceived warmth: activist behaviours are seen as less warm than the others. These results confirm the distinction between perceived agency and communion. Given that all targets behave and demonstrate agency towards the environment, they are all seen as equally competent. But the activist target, which demonstrates intentions to change the current state of affairs, is seen as less cooperative and communal than the targets presenting pro-environmental behaviours form the private sphere. Implications of these results for the environmental social change are discussed.

Has self-interest of climate scientist influenced their perceptions of global environmental change? A Rebuttal to climate change contrarians' allegation against climate scientists

H.-J. Bak (Kyung Hee University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

Abstract details
Has self-interest of climate scientist influenced their perceptions of global environmental change? A Rebuttal to climate change contrarians' allegation against climate scientists

HJ. Bak (1)
(1) Kyung Hee University, Center for Science, Technology & Society, Seoul, Republic of Korea

Abstract content

GEC is still controversial in the public in many countries, although scientists almost reached a consensus over the causes and results of it. One of the reasons is the attack against climate science and IPCC by climate change contrarians. They have claimed that mainstream climate scientists, influenced by their interest of research fund and liberal political ideology, have exaggerated the seriousness of GEC for political purposes and made uncertain claim of anthropogenic global warming. Social scientists, historians, and environmental NGOs have counter-attacked these contrarians indirectly by debunking the influence of their own conservative ideological orientation, conservative think tanks, and the fossil fuel industry on their activity. However, little effort has been made to examine the validity of the contrarians’ claim with empirical evidence: whether or not climate scientists’ warning on GEC has been influenced by their own professional ideology and interests. Among many reasons, there is a serious methodological challenge to answer this question: it is difficult to know whether the high level of concern about GEC among climate scientists has resulted from their expertise (as most scientists claim) or their interests (as contrarians claim).

This study attempts to test the validity of the contrarians’ allegation by taking an innovative way to separate potential influence of expertise from interests on climate scientists’ concern about GEC. To use Collins and Evans (2002, 2007)’ terms, this study classified a sample of Korean scientists (n=365) into three groups, 1) contributory experts who conduct climate research, 2) interactional experts who do not conduct climate research but have much knowledge on it, and 3) scientists-in-general who do not have much knowledge on climate change, and compared their perceptions/presentations of global climate change. In this way, this study attempts to distinguish the influence of expertise (contributory and interactional experts vs. scientists in general) and the influence of interests controlling for expertise (contributory experts vs. interactional experts). Using this classification of expertise, this study hypothesizes that, if scientists’ interests of research fund have effect on their perceptions/presentations of GEC, contributory experts having such interests may perceive/present GEC as a more serious problem than may other scientists who do not have such interests. In particular, if the contrarians’ allegation is valid, there should be a significant difference in the perceptions/presentions of GEC between contributory experts and interactional experts who have a high level of expertise in GEC but do not have professional interests in climate research such as research funding.

The results of this study demonstrates that  there has been little difference in the perceptions/presentations of GEC among contributory experts, interactional experts, and scientists in general. The same was the case even when covariates such as gender, age, income, and political ideology were controlled for. These results therefore strongly suggest that the allegation against mainstream climate scientists made by contrarians was hard to find ground and that we should take climate scientists' warning agaist GEC more seriously. Perhaps, climate science has been politicized too much.

Interaction between moist Kelvin waves and synoptic variability of precipitation over Congo basin

S. Zebaze (UNIVERSITY OF YAOUNDE I, YAOUNDE, Cameroon), L. Andre (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon), T. Clément (University of Yaounde I, Yaounde, Cameroon), S. Janicot (Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN), Paris, France)

Abstract details
Interaction between moist Kelvin waves and synoptic variability of precipitation over Congo basin

S. Zebaze (1) ; L. Andre (2) ; T. Clément (1) ; S. Janicot ()
(1) UNIVERSITY OF YAOUNDE I, PHYSICS, YAOUNDE, Cameroon; (2) University of Douala, Physics, Douala, Cameroon

Abstract content

The synoptic structure and variability of moist synoptic Kelvin waves over the Congo basin during March to June(1979-2010) are explored using satellite-observed brightness temperature (Tb), outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysisdata.We found that synoptic Kelvin waves (SKWs) activity is most predominant during March-May and it is centered at the equator where the convective active phase of these waves favors formation of convective synoptic systems. A brief analysis of an intense Kelvin wave in March-May 1999 ( active year) shows a clear impact of the wave on convective development and daily rainfall over Congo basin. Convection is found to be less frequent immediately prior to the passage of the convectively active phase of the convectively coupled atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave(CCKW), more frequent during the passage, and most frequent just after the passage. Otherwise, Results show marked interannual variability of Kelvin wave activity over Congo basin. The large synoptic variability of precipitation are observed from March-May which clearly denotes synoptic activity in this region. Interannual variability in thefluctuation strength of the wavelet power spectrum as well as in its distribution amount different periods. Strong signalis clearly found at period between 4-6 day and 7-9 day. The location of peak SWKs convection are consistent with high rainfall location and clearly impacted crops yield over this region.

Impacts of climate variability and agricultural intensification on the origin of runoff: the case study of the watershed Kolondieba in the south of Mali

A. Dao (Université Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), B. Kamagate (Université Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

Abstract details
Impacts of climate variability and agricultural intensification on the origin of runoff: the case study of the watershed Kolondieba in the south of Mali

A. Dao (1) ; B. Kamagate (2)
(1) Université Nangui Abrogoua, Laboratoire de Géosciences etEnvironnement, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Université Nangui Abrogoua, Laboratoire de géosciences et environnement, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Abstract content

As part of the international research program RIPIECSA (Interdisciplinary and Participatory Research on Interactions between Ecosystems, Climate and Society in Africa), watershed Kolondieba (under Sudanese climate) was selected to understand the mechanism of runoff process in order to improve hydrological model in a context of strong climate variability and agricultural intensification (cotton culture is the main economic activity in the basin). The method used is based on rainfall, hydrometric, geochemical and piezometric data monitoring over the period 2009-2011. The results showed that 2009 and 2010 were normal rainfall years (1300 mm, in average), compared to the average of chronic 1960-1969 (wet period ), while 2011 has emerged as a dry year compared to the chronic 1970-1992 (dry period). During the last contrasted two years, the runoff coefficient has decreased by half from 2010 to 2011 occasioned groundwater discharge deficit estimated at 33%. Monitoring the mineralization of targeted water compartments: rainfall, surface water, and groundwater with the integrator chemical parameter (Electrical Conductivity), showed a very little mineralization of rainfall with an average of 16.99 ± 8.53 μScm-1. Mineralization of surface water is closer to the rainfall’s, but it’s far from the groundwater’s consist of shallow aquifers and deep ones with respectively 120.58 ± 90.07μScm-1 and 133.57 ± 85.68 μScm-1 in average. This chemical relationship between water compartments showed that deep aquifers don’t contribute enough to the runoff. This allowed to deduct a double origin of the runoff on the watershed consists of stormflow and subsurface flow. The separation of the hydrograph in a normal year (2010) gave a contribution of stormflow about 77%. This contribution has increased by 3% in dry year (2011). In these conditions runoff doesn’t depend only on rainfall variability, it can be assigned to the land use because cotton culture area is increasing on the basin since 1960

The impact of global changes on agriculture: the case of Ivorian Basin of Comoe River

N. Dabissi (Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), L. Bruno (2CIRAD TA 60/02, G-Eau, UMR Cemagref, Montpellier Cedex 05, France, MONTPELLIER, France), M. Gil (Université Montpellier 2, MONTPELLIER, France), B. Kamagate (Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), S. ÉRic (Université Montpellier 2, MONTPELLIER, France), B. T. A. Goula (Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), S. Issiaka (Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

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The impact of global changes on agriculture: the case of Ivorian Basin of Comoe River

N. Dabissi (1) ; L. Bruno (2) ; M. Gil (3) ; B. Kamagate (1) ; S. ÉRic (3) ; BTA. Goula (1) ; S. Issiaka (1)
(1) Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Ufr sge, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) 2CIRAD TA 60/02, G-Eau, UMR Cemagref, Montpellier Cedex 05, France, G-eau, umr cemagref, cirad montpellier, MONTPELLIER, France; (3) Université Montpellier 2, Hsm/ird, MONTPELLIER, France

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Since some decades, the Ivorian Comoe river Basin faced environmental and climatic changes. As one of rainfed agriculture leading forces, climate conditions display (here) a major role in agriculture transformations. The simulation of water need requirements, coupled with farming systems, shows that actual global changes mainly benefit to annual crops such as corn (Zea mays), and allows the upgrading of the trees crop as cashew (Anacardium occidentale), rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis), etc. However, the precariousness of the production systems, whose practices have not deeply changed, has to be linked with the combined effects of land saturation, agricultural policies and need of cash faced by farming communities. Therefore, the diversification and reconversion toward rubber plantation, are to be considered as farmers’ strategies aiming at finding alternatives for old speculations such as coffee (Coffea L.) and cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.). For instance, the countryside has been gripped by a frenzy of agricultural development of Chromolaena Odorata and wetlands, which were previously not cultivated. These changes go with intense competition for land that benefits some urban elite who, in example, seeks to cope with retirement by investing in rubber plantation (Hevea brasiliensis). We are witnessing social and spatial reconstructions that, in view of the uncertainty of present conditions, leave small room for environmental protection. The present survey analyzes the ongoing processes, speculates on their future development, and suggests some ways for sustainable agriculture.

Project ACASIS : A early warning system on Sahelian heat waves and their impacts on health

S. Janicot (IRD, Paris, France)

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Project ACASIS : A early warning system on Sahelian heat waves and their impacts on health

S. Janicot (1)
(1) IRD, Paris, France

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While the heat wave impacts on public health have been widely addressed in developed countries especially after the intense event over West Europe during summer 2003, no effort has been made to detect them and evaluate their impacts in least developed countries, and especially Africa, where climate is warmer and adaptation capacities are low. Over West Africa preliminary interviews, climate and epidemiologic analyses show however that this problem is emerging and climate projections indicate that such events should increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades. However these climate models display important temperature and radiative biases over this region, which must be reduced to provide robust information on the future evolution of heat waves.

Starting from this context, the main objective of ACASIS is to set-up a pre-operational heat wave warning system over West Africa tailored to health risks of the population living in this region. This is a demonstration project focused on Senegal and Burkina where national weather services have already started developing products dedicated to weather/climate and health relationships, and where several health and demographic observatories have been operating for up to several decades. Based on qualified meteorological, climate and demographic data bases, firstly, the dynamics of the heat wave events and their atmospheric patterns will be determined, as well as their evolution over the last decades. Their predictability at short and medium ranges will be evaluated on ensembles of multi-models forecasts outputs. On a longer time scale, control simulations and climate scenarios of the CMIP5/AR5 (5th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project the results of which are synthesised in the IPCC Assessment Report) database will be analysed and the simulated future evolution and associated uncertainty of these events will be evaluated. More precisely the processes at the origin of model radiative biases will be examined and reduced as much as possible. In parallel, epidemiologic studies associated with interviews will be conducted in the health and demographic sites in Senegal and Burkina in order to evaluate the physiologic and social vulnerability of the African population to high temperature extremes. It will allow to define tailored bio-meteorological indicators to be used in the warning system. From these outcomes and by implementing downscaling to link the synoptic scale of the heat waves to local bio-meteorological indicators, we will set-up a demonstration warning system on a “testbed” platform named MISVA, already implemented as the result of a prior collaboration between Meteo-France, OMP and ANACIM, the meteorological agency of Senegal. Based on the interviews, and with the setting of several workshops with stakeholders and public institutions, we will be able to provide specific recommendations associated to these warnings. An implementation in the Meteo-France operational system at the end of the project or after might be possible.

To carry on this project, a pluri-disciplinary consortium has been set-up gathering climatologists, physical processes specialists, meteorologists, biostatisticians, demographers, socio-economists, epidemiologists, geographers, and operational meteorological agencies. It will work through a close collaboration between French and African teams where young African researchers will be highly involved.

The ESCAPE project: an inter-disciplinary study on vulnerability, resilience and adaptation of rural societies to environmental changes in Africa

B. Sultan (IRD, Paris, France)

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The ESCAPE project: an inter-disciplinary study on vulnerability, resilience and adaptation of rural societies to environmental changes in Africa

B. Sultan (1)
(1) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France

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Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to a combination of naturally high levels of climate variability, high reliance on climate sensitive activities such as rain-fed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to cope with and adapt to climate variability and change. Urgent actions are required to tackle the issues raised by climate change in SSA and these actions need to be supported by the best knowledge available. ESCAPE is a 5-year research project started in 2011 funded by the National Research Agency which aims to revitalize research in SSA in this field through an integrated interdisciplinary framework for increasing our understanding of the problem and support decision making for the future. ESCAPE addresses the vulnerability of rural societies in SSA to climate and environmental changes and explores adaptation pathways to reduce this vulnerability. The project fosters interdisciplinary research, through both retrospective and prospective studies, in Senegal, Niger, Benin and Mali, on the evolution of different agricultural, ecological and social systems interacting together under the global environmental changes. 

Recent climatological trend of the Saharan Heat Low and its impact in West Africa

C. Lavaysse (European Commission / Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy), C. Flamant (LATMOS, Paris, France), A. Evan (Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States of America)

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Recent climatological trend of the Saharan Heat Low and its impact in West Africa

C. Lavaysse (1) ; C. Flamant (2) ; A. Evan (3)
(1) European Commission / Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Climate risk management unit, Ispra, Italy; (2) LATMOS, Paris, France; (3) Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States of America

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The Saharan Heat Low (SHL) plays a crucial role in the West African Monsoon in spring and summer. The recent trend in SHL activity has been analysed using two sets of numerical weather prediction reanalysis. A local increase during the 90’s has been found in the two sets of temperature. This increase is stronger within the heat low region than the surrounding areas. This change is accompanied by a modification of the large scale and slow increase of temperature, but we do not observe a change in the filtered signal under 25 days. Despite a large variability of the temporal trends between 15 climate models from the CMIP5 project, the trend is observed using the ensemble mean. Nevertheless, the spatial and temporal evolutions of the HL activities display a large difference between the reanalysis and climate models. The impacts and atmospheric variabilities have been compared in reanalysis and climate models and reveals different behaviours of the climate models to represent the west african monsoon interactions with HL pulsations.

Development and Assessment of Non-Linear and Non-Stationary Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Models for the Sirba Watershed, West Africa

A. Gado Djibo (Institut International d'Ingénierie, de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), H. Karambiri (2IE, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), O. Seidou (University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada), J.-E. Paturel (IRD, Abdijan, Ivory Coast)

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Development and Assessment of Non-Linear and Non-Stationary Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Models for the Sirba Watershed, West Africa

A. Gado Djibo (1) ; H. Karambiri (2) ; O. Seidou (3) ; JE. Paturel (4)
(1) Institut International d'Ingénierie, de l'Eau et de l'Environnement (2iE), Ecole Doctorale, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (2) 2IE, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso; (3) University of Ottawa, Civil engineering, Ottawa, Canada; (4) IRD, HydroSciences Montpellier, Abdijan, Ivory Coast

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Water Resources Management in the Sahel region, West Africa, is extremely difficult because of high inter-annual rainfall variability. Unexpected floods and droughts often compromise economic activities and sometime lead to severe humanitarian crises. This is exacerbated by endemic poverty, poor preparedness to disaster response, the inadequacy of climate information, and weak institutional capacity. All these factors worsen the vulnerability of sub-Saharan Africa countries to climate changes and make them to be the regions which are highly impacted worldwide. Seasonal rainfall forecasting is one possible way to increase resilience to climate change/variability by providing information in advance about the amount of rainfall expected in each upcoming rainy season. Rainfall forecasting models often arbitrarily assume that rainfall is linked to predictors by a multiple linear regression with parameters that are independent of time and of predictor magnitude. Two probabilistic methods based on change point detection that allow the relationship to change according to time or rainfall magnitude were developed in this paper using Normalized Bayes Factors. Each method uses one of the following predictors: Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Air Temperature (AirTemp) and Relative Humidity (RHUM). Method M1 allows for change in model parameters according to annual rainfall magnitude, while model M2 allows for changes in model parameters with time. M1 and M2 were compared to the classical linear model with constant parameters (M3) and to the climatology (M4). Results showed that model that allows a change in the predictor-predictand relationship according to rainfall amplitude (M1) and using AirTemp as predictor is the best model for seasonal rainfall forecasting in the study area.

Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel

G. Panthou (Université Grenoble Alpes, Saint Martin d'Hères, France), T. Vischel (Université Grenoble Alpes, Saint Martin d'Hères, France), T. Lebel (IRD, Grenoble, France)

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Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel

G. Panthou (1) ; T. Vischel (1) ; T. Lebel ()
(1) Université Grenoble Alpes, Lthe, Saint Martin d'Hères, France

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Ongoing global warming raises the hypothesis of an intensification of the hydrologic cycle, extreme rainfall events becoming more frequent. However, the strong time-space variability of extreme rainfall makes it difficult to detect meaningful trends in the regime of their occurrence for recent years. Using an integrated regional approach, it is shown here that over the last ten years, the Sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a lasting deficit of the number of rainy days, while at the same time the extreme rainfall occurrence is on the rise. As a consequence the proportion of annual rainfall associated with extreme rainfall has increased from 17% in the 1970-1990 years to 19% in the 1991-2000 years and to 21% in the 2001-2010 years. This tends to support the idea that a more extreme climate has been observed over 2001-2010: this climate is drier in the sense of a persisting deficit of rainfall occurrence compared to 1950-1969, while at the same time there is an increased probability of extreme daily rainfall

Crop-Climate ensemble scenarios to reduce uncertainty in agroclimatic risks estimation under 2°C regional warming

S. Salack (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research,, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Munich, Germany)

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Crop-Climate ensemble scenarios to reduce uncertainty in agroclimatic risks estimation under 2°C regional warming

S. Salack (1)
(1) Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research,, Department of Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Munich, Germany

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Abstract

The estimation of the response of rainfed crops to heat stress and water stress requires adequate accounting for the uncertainty in climatic and non-climatic factors that affect impact assessments. The objective of this research is to narrow the range of values characterizing the limits within which estimates are expected to fall in the diagnostics of agroclimatic risks. Assessments are made by analyzing historical observations and evaluating the influence of heat stress and rainfall variability on crop water demand, on biomass and on grain yields of short-cycle cultivars of pearl millet and maize. We use a wide range of consistent and practical sets of crop model ensemble analyses (based on crop management practices: seedling densities, fertilization levels, early/late sowing dates and soil types), and climate model ensembles from two climate change hypothesis (A1b & RCP8.5) over the West African Sudan-Sahel (WASS).  Recent rainfall developments shows that hazardous sub-seasonal rainfall distribution affects crop productivity with increased frequency and intensity of daily rainfall, false start, early cessation of the rainy season and decreasing diurnal temperature range. In 2011-2050 perspectives, relative to the 1981-2010 baseline, a slight increase in temperature (i.e. +0.6 to +0.8 ° C) combined with a stationary-to-moderate decrease in precipitation leads to a 10-15% (8-15%) decrease in above-ground biomass production (grain yield). When the warming is moderate (i.e. +1.4 to 1.8°C), the decline in grain yield worsens (10-20%) despite a slight increase in rainfall projections. At these rates of loss in crop production, resilience can be re-enforced. However, it will require that climate-smart crop management practices are embedded in sub-seasonal and interannual monitoring and early warning systems.

Keywords: Agroclimatic risks, Ensemble Scenarios, Uncertainty Management, Sensitivity Analysis, Crop Production, West African Sudan-Sahel

Use of the CORDEX simulations to with ORCHIDEE crop to assess the impact of +2/4 K climate change on crop yields in Subsaharan Africa

B. Parkes (UPMC, Paris, France), B. Sultan (IRD, Paris, France), P. Ciais (IPSL, Gif sur Yvette, France)

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Use of the CORDEX simulations to with ORCHIDEE crop to assess the impact of +2/4 K climate change on crop yields in Subsaharan Africa

B. Parkes (1) ; B. Sultan (2) ; P. Ciais (3)
(1) UPMC, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (2) IRD, LOCEAN, Paris, France; (3) IPSL, Lsce, Gif sur Yvette, France

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The population of Subsaharan Africa is projected to increase during the 21st century. This population increase needs to be matched with an increase in the amount of food available.

The IPCC AR5 used the CMIP5 models to assess future climate impacts on a regional and global scales. Alongside the development of AR5 recent publications have changed approach to a "not if, but when" approach to passing certain climate thresholds. The +2/4/6 K global temperature changes are examples of these thresholds. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in AR5 were simulated using different inputs and models and therefore reach temperature thresholds at different times. Here we present the projected change in crop yields in Subsaharan Africa for global average temperature changes of +2/4 K.

In tropical regions the ability of Global Climate Models (GCMs) to reproduce realistic weather patterns is known to be poor, this is largely due to the low resolution of climate models being unable to simulate the weather conditions accurately. To counteract the low resolution issues, the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) used several Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to focus on specific geographical regions, including Africa, South East Asia and Europe. The higher resolution RCMs are better at simulating accurate weather and can be bias corrected to remove any large inconsistencies. Models which represent the range of the CORDEX simulations have been used to drive the ORCHIDEE-Crop model. The ORCHIDEE-Crop model is the crop specific version of the ORCHIDEE land surface model. The crop specific version has been tuned to produce accurate yields with various crops including maize, wheat and rice.

In this work we investigate how maize yields will change in Subsaharan Africa at +2/4 K using data from the CORDEX experiments. The changes in yields and the responses to different stresses will be used to assess how the future climate will affect the populations in Subsaharan Africa.

The competitive impacts of global SST warming and CO2 increase on Sahelian rainfall: results from CMIP5 idealized simulations

M. Gaetani (IPSL-LATMOS, Paris, France), C. Flamant (IPSL-LATMOS, Paris, France), F. Hourdin (IPSL-LMD, Paris, France), S. Bastin (IPSL-LATMOS, Paris, France), P. Braconnot (IPSL-LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France), S. Bony (IPSL-LMD, Paris, France)

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The competitive impacts of global SST warming and CO2 increase on Sahelian rainfall: results from CMIP5 idealized simulations

M. Gaetani (1) ; C. Flamant (1) ; F. Hourdin (2) ; S. Bastin (1) ; P. Braconnot (3) ; S. Bony (2)
(1) IPSL-LATMOS, Paris, France; (2) IPSL-LMD, Paris, France; (3) IPSL-LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Abstract content

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is affected by large climate variability at different timescales, from interannual to multidecadal, with strong environmental and socio-economic impacts associated to climate-related rainfall variability, especially in Sahelian countries. State-of-the-art coupled climate models still show poor ability in correctly simulating the WAM historical variability and also a large spread is observed in future climate projections.

In this work, climate simulations from a set of 10 CMIP5 atmospheric global climate models are used to study the July-to-September WAM variability in the period 1979-2008. The individual roles of global SST warming and CO2 concentration increase are investigated through idealized experiments simulating a 4K warmer SST and a 4x CO2 concentration, respectively.

Results show a dry response in Sahel to 4K SST warming, with dryer conditions over western Sahel. On the contrary, wet conditions are observed when CO2 is 4x increased, with the strongest response over central-eastern Sahel. The precipitation changes are associated to coherent modifications in the regional atmospheric circulation: dry (wet) conditions are associated with reduced (increased) convergence in the lower troposphere, a southward (northward) shift of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ), a weaker (stronger) Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). The analysis of the changes in the regional and global connections of WAM dynamics reveals that in the 4K experiment the observed relationships with the global SST and the regional dynamics patterns are weaker, while in the 4xCO2 simulation the connections are more robust. Specifically, a strong coupling between WAM precipitation and Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic SST is observed, along with a reinforcement of the regional connections with the Saharan heat low, the AEJ and the TEJ.

The above results suggest a competitive action of global SST warming and CO2 increase on the WAM climate variability, with opposite effects on precipitation. The global SST warming affects Sahelian precipitation by weakening the global Tropical convection, while the CO2 increase results in a strengthening of the regional dynamics features associated to wet conditions in the Sahel. It is argued that the large spread in CMIP5 future rainfall projections may be related to the weight given to SST warming and direct CO2 effect by individual models.

A study of flood intensification in Niamey based on satellite, gauge data and hydrological modeling

M. Gosset (Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Toulouse, France), C. Casse, (GET, toulouse, France), C. Peugeot (IRD, Montpellier, France), T. Vischel (Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Saint Martin d'Hères, France), B. Tanimoun, (autorité Bassin Niger (ABN), Niamey, Niger, Republic of), A. Boone, (CNRM, Toulouse, France), G. Quantin, (Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Saint Martin d'Hères, France), V. Pedinotti (CNRM, Toulouse, France), L. Descroix (UMR PALOC, Dakar-Hann, Senegal)

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A study of flood intensification in Niamey based on satellite, gauge data and hydrological modeling

M. Gosset (1) ; C. Casse, (2) ; C. Peugeot (3) ; T. Vischel (4) ; B. Tanimoun, (5) ; A. Boone, (6) ; G. Quantin, (4) ; V. Pedinotti (6) ; L. Descroix (7)
(1) Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Geoscience Environnement Toulouse (GET), Toulouse, France; (2) GET, toulouse, France; (3) IRD, Hydrosciences montpellier (hsm), Montpellier, France; (4) Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Saint Martin d'Hères, France; (5) autorité Bassin Niger (ABN), Niamey, Niger, Republic of; (6) CNRM, Toulouse, France; (7) UMR PALOC, Lmi pateo, campus international de recherches ucad/ird de hann, Dakar-Hann, Senegal

Abstract content

One anticipated impact of climate change is a possible enhancement of   the hydrological cycle and an intensification of extreme hydrological events, such as floods. Observing the  present and past changes in hydro-systems is  helpful to understand the causalities – and the respective roles of climate variability and land use changes, in the increase of floods. In many tropical basins, and notably in sub-saharian Africa there is a deficit of in situ observations. In these regions satellite data and modeling can help analyzing the hydrological behavior and the recent evolution.

Since the beginning of flows observations, in 1920's, Niamey (Niger) has suffered drastic hydrological changes. Several studies highlighted the hydrograph modification from one to two floods (around 1970's). This hydrological change has been attributed to increased runoff in the basins of the local tributaries (Gorouol, Dargol, Sirba), resulting from land clearing and soil crusting,;. In the last decade (2000's) a dramatic increase in the frequency and intensity of the first flood as been observed. Years 2010, 2012 and 2013 recorded the three highest water levels and peak discharge since the beginning of observations; and lead to severe material losses and several  casualties.

Recent studies have raised the issue of a possible increase in extreme rainfall in the Sahel, which may had an important role in the last extreme floods. This study explores the possible impact of this rainfall change in the Niger flood in Niamey. It focuses on the 125000km2 basin between Ansongo and Niamey, corresponding to the drainage area contributing to the first flood. Several long series of satellite and gauge based rainfall estimations, from 1950 to present, are analyzed and used as input to a hydrological model to analyze the possible role of rainfall in the observed  evolution of the flood regime and compare with the effect of land use on the basin. These results should provide a basis to anticipate future changes.

Observed long-term land cover vs climate impacts on the West African hydrological cycle: lessons for the future ?

C. Peugeot (IRD, Montpellier, France), I. Bouzou Moussa (Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey, Niger, Republic of), B. Cappelaere (IRD, Montpellier, France), C. Dardel (GET, Toulouse, France), J. Demarty (IRD, Montpellier, France), L. Descroix (UMR PALOC, Dakar-Hann, Senegal), G. Favreau (IRD, Montpellier, France), S. Galle (IRD, 30041 Grenoble Cedex, France), M. Grippa (Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France), P. Hiernaux (retired from CNRS GET, Caylus, France), L. Kergoat (GET, Toulouse, France), L. Leroux (CIRAD, Montpellier, France), M. Malam Abdou (Université de Zinder, Zinder, Niger, Republic of), E. Mougin (GET, Toulouse, France), Y. Nazoumou (Universite Abdoum Moumouni, Niamey, Niger, Republic of), V. Orekan (Université d'Abomey Calavi, Cotonou, Benin), J. Oszwald (Université Rennes-2, Rennes, France), L. Séguis (IRD, Montpellier, France), J.-P. Vandervaere (Université de Grenoble, Grenoble, France), T. Lebel (IRD, 38041 Grenoble Cedex, France)

Abstract details
Observed long-term land cover vs climate impacts on the West African hydrological cycle: lessons for the future ?

C. Peugeot (1) ; I. Bouzou Moussa (2) ; B. Cappelaere (3) ; C. Dardel (4) ; J. Demarty (1) ; L. Descroix (5) ; G. Favreau (1) ; S. Galle (6) ; M. Grippa (7) ; P. Hiernaux (8) ; L. Kergoat (4) ; L. Leroux (9) ; M. Malam Abdou (10) ; E. Mougin (4) ; Y. Nazoumou (11) ; V. Orekan (12) ; J. Oszwald (13) ; L. Séguis (1) ; JP. Vandervaere (14) ; T. Lebel (15)
(1) IRD, Hydrosciences montpellier (hsm), Montpellier, France; (2) Abdou Moumouni University, Niamey, Niger, Republic of; (3) IRD, Hydroscience montpellier, Montpellier, France; (4) GET, Umr cnrs 5563, Toulouse, France; (5) UMR PALOC, Lmi pateo, campus international de recherches ucad/ird de hann, Dakar-Hann, Senegal; (6) IRD, LTHE, 30041 Grenoble Cedex, France; (7) Université de Toulouse, Get, Toulouse, France; (8) retired from CNRS GET, Caylus, France; (9) CIRAD, Umr tetis, Montpellier, France; (10) Université de Zinder, Dept of geography, Zinder, Niger, Republic of; (11) Universite Abdoum Moumouni, Niamey, Niger, Republic of; (12) Université d'Abomey Calavi, Labee, Cotonou, Benin; (13) Université Rennes-2, Umr letg, Rennes, France; (14) Université de Grenoble, Grenoble, France; (15) IRD, LTHE, 38041 Grenoble Cedex, France

Abstract content

West Africa has experienced a long lasting, severe drought as from 1970, which seems to be attenuating since 2000. It has induced major changes in living conditions and resources over the region. In the same period, marked changes of land use and land cover have been observed: land clearing for agriculture, driven by high demographic growth rates, and ecosystem evolutions driven by the rainfall deficit. Depending on the region, the combined effects of these climate and environmental changes have induced contrasted impacts on the hydrological cycle. In the Sahel, runoff and river discharges have increased despite the rainfall reduction (“less rain, more water”, the so-called «Sahelian paradox »). Soil crusting and erosion have increased the runoff capacity of the watersheds so that it outperformed the rainfall deficit. Conversely, in the more humid Guinean and Sudanian regions to the South, the opposite (and expected) “less rain, less water” behavior is observed, but the signature of land cover changes can hardly be detected in the hydrological records.

These observations over the past 50 years suggest that the hydrological response to climate change can not be analyzed irrespective of other concurrent changes, and primarily ecosystem dynamics and land cover changes.

There is no consensus on future rainfall trend over West Africa in IPCC projections, although a higher occurrence of extreme events (rainstorms, dry spells) is expected. An increase in the need for arable land and water resources is expected as well, driven by economic development and demographic growth. Based on past long-term observations on the AMMA-CATCH observatory, we explore in this work various future combinations of climate vs environmental drivers, and we infer the expected resulting trends on water resources, along the west African eco-climatic gradient.

Towards innovative solutions for monitoring climate changes in observation poor regions : Rain Measurement based on cellular phone networks in Africa

F. Cazenave, (Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Saint Martin d'Hères, France), M. Gosset (Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Toulouse, France), F. Zougmore, (LAME / Université Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), A. Doumounia, (LAME / Université Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), M. Kacou, (Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Toulouse, France)

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Towards innovative solutions for monitoring climate changes in observation poor regions : Rain Measurement based on cellular phone networks in Africa

F. Cazenave, (1) ; M. Gosset (2) ; F. Zougmore, (3) ; A. Doumounia, (3) ; M. Kacou, (2)
(1) Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, Saint Martin d'Hères, France; (2) Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement, Geoscience Environnement Toulouse (GET), Toulouse, France; (3) LAME / Université Ouagadougou, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Abstract content

The observed anthropogenic global warming over the last century is well documented but the effect on rainfall is less clear, particularly at small scales. Confidence in future precipitation scenarios is currently subject to large uncertainties and can only be assured if there is a comprehensive understanding of the processes controlling rainfall variability, made possible through reliable rainfall records.  In many part of the Tropics the ground based gauge networks are sparse, often degrading and accessing this data for process studies, climatological analysis or for validating satellite products  is sometime difficult.

 

Here a novel approach is presented. It is based on using commercial microwave links from cellular telephone networks  to detect and quantify rainfall.

 

    Rainfall monitoring based on commercial terrestrial microwave links has been tested for the first time in Burkina Faso, in Sahelian West-Africa.  In collaboration with one national cellular phone operator, Telecel Faso, the attenuation on a 29 km long microwave link operating at 7 GHz was monitored at 1s time rate for the monsoon season 2012. The time series of attenuation is transformed into rain rates and compared with rain gauge data. The method is successful in quantifying rainfall: 95% of the rainy days are detected. The correlation with the daily  raingauge series is 0.8 and the season bias is 5%. The correlation at the 5 min time step within each event is also high. These results demonstrate the potential interest of exploiting national and regional wireless telecommunication networks for monitoring rainfall in the Tropics, where operational rain gauge networks are degrading  and the hydro-meteorological risk increasing.

Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns in Benin Republic between 2000 and 2050

A. E. Lawin (Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Cotonou, Benin), P. I. Akponikpè (Faculté d'Agronomie, Parakou, Benin), A. Jalloh (West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development, Dakar, Senegal), C. G. Nelson (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, United States of America), T. S. Thomas (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, United States of America)

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Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns in Benin Republic between 2000 and 2050

AE. Lawin (1) ; PI. Akponikpè (2) ; A. Jalloh (3) ; CG. Nelson (4) ; TS. Thomas (4)
(1) Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Laboratoire d'Hydrologie Appliquée, Cotonou, Benin; (2) Faculté d'Agronomie, Environmental soil physics and hydraulics unit. (pshe), Parakou, Benin; (3) West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development, Dakar, Senegal; (4) International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, United States of America

Abstract content

Climate change is considered as a worldwide concern. The consequences include changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, with more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. It will disproportionately affect the poor who depend mainly on agriculture for their livelihoods and have a lower capacity to adapt. Benin republic’s economy is based essentially on agriculture and its population is projected to at least double (to 18 million) or possibly more than triple (to 25 million) by 2050. Food security is therefore a great challenge for policy makers.

This work focused on analyzing climate changes in temperature and precipitation trends between 2000 and 2050 in Benin.  Four downscaled climate models (i.e CNRM-CM3, ECHAM5, CSIRO-MK3 and MIROC3.2 GCMs) and 2 climate scenarios (A1B and B1) were used to assess changes.

We found that all four GCMs show an increase in the normal annual maximum temperature for the whole country, ranging from slight (1°-1.5°C for MIROC 3.2) to substantial (2.5°-3.0°C). The climate models show different outcomes for precipitation levels for the country in 2050. CNRM-CM3 and ECHAM 5 showed increased precipitation, while the two other models (CSIRO Mark 3 and MIROC 3.2) showed areas of precipitation decrease, mainly in the south. These changes in climate may affect in varying ways crop production and food security.

Keywords: climate change, precipitation patterns, temperature, climate model

From Artisans to Entrepreneurs: Understanding the role of small business for sustainable energy access

R. Aitken, (Restio Energy Pty Ltd, Somerset West, South Africa), W. Kruger (University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa)

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From Artisans to Entrepreneurs: Understanding the role of small business for sustainable energy access

R. Aitken, (1) ; W. Kruger (2)
(1) Restio Energy Pty Ltd, Somerset West, South Africa; (2) University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract content

The "Developing Energy Enterprises Project - East Africa" (DEEP EA), which ran from 2008 to 2013, was funded by the European Union (EU) and the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DGIS). The Global Village Energy Partnership - International (GVEP-I) coordniated the partnership programme responsible for implementing the project. DEEP EA aimed to increase clean energy access among the rural and peri-urban poor in East Africa by assisting entrepreneurs to grow their businesses through enterprise training, mentorship and possible linkages to finance. The project was implemented in Kennya, Tanzania and Uganda, and included three principle technologies and services: improved cook stoves (ICS), briquettes and solar PV (solar lanterns, solar home systems, and PV-based mobile phone charging). During March 2013, Restio Energy conducted an independent terminal evaluation of DEEP EA. This presentation is aimed at capturing and articulating many of the lessons learned - with the purpose of strengthening majority market climate change mitigation enterprises in the future. DEEP EA provides a number of crucial lessons on the nature of support needed to stimulate private sector-led energy access initiatives in Africa. Ther project has discovered how to develop people from artisans to entrepreneurs; from someone merely involved in producing a piece of low-tech, low-carbon energy technology to someone who takes ownership of the entire business aspect. Throughout the project, there has been an effective non-technical shift in business performance, which (along with the technical abilities) has raised the performance of a significant number of these DEEP EA supported businesses. Overall, the project has developed a deeper and more textured undertanding of the challenges of entrepreneurship in East Africa. The small and micro-business model that emerges presents a blend between certain defining features of the formal economy and other features with a distinct "informal economy" nature. The outcome is a blend that is more in-tune with the socio-economic realities of not only the entrepreneurs themselves, but the market they service. This is where a great deal of support should be aimed if the private sector is to play its indispensable role in meeting the Sustainable Energy for All targets by 2030. 

AMMA-CATCH a hydrological, meteorological and ecological long term observatory on West Africa

S. Galle (IRD, 30041 Grenoble Cedex, France), C. Peugeot (IRD, Montpellier, France), M. Grippa (Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France), I. Bouzou Moussa (Université Abdou Moumouni, Niamey, Niger, Republic of), B. Cappelaere (IRD, Montpellier, France), J. Demarty (IRD, Montpellier, France), E. Mougin (GET, Toulouse, France), T. Lebel (IRD, 38041 Grenoble Cedex, France)

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AMMA-CATCH a hydrological, meteorological and ecological long term observatory on West Africa

S. Galle (1) ; C. Peugeot (2) ; M. Grippa (3) ; I. Bouzou Moussa (4) ; B. Cappelaere (2) ; J. Demarty (2) ; E. Mougin (5) ; T. Lebel (6)
(1) IRD, LTHE, 30041 Grenoble Cedex, France; (2) IRD, Hydrosciences montpellier (hsm), Montpellier, France; (3) Université de Toulouse, Get, Toulouse, France; (4) Université Abdou Moumouni, Niamey, Niger, Republic of; (5) GET, Umr cnrs 5563, Toulouse, France; (6) IRD, LTHE, 38041 Grenoble Cedex, France

Abstract content

AMMA-CATCH is a multi-scale observation system dedicated to long-term monitoring of the water cycle, the vegetation dynamics and their interaction with climate and water resources in West Africa. In the context of the global change, long-term observations are required to i) gain understanding in eco-hydrological processes over this highly contrasted region, ii) help their representation in Earth System Models, and iii) detect trends and infer their impacts on water resources and living conditions.

It is made of three meso-scale sites (~ 1°x1°) in Mali, Niger and Benin, extending along the West African eco-climatic gradient. Within this regional window (5° by 9°), each of the three sites comprises a multi-scale set-up which helps documenting the components of the hydrologic budget and the evolutions of the surface conditions over a range of time scales: raingages, piezometers, river discharge stations, soil moisture and temperature profiles, turbulent fluxes measurements, LAI/biomass monitoring.

 

This observation system has been continuously generating coherent datasets for 10 to 25 years depending on the datasets. It is jointly operated by French and African (Mali, Niger and Benin) research institutions. The data-base is available to the community through the website (www.amma-catch.org). AMMA-CATH participates to several global or regional observation networks, such as FluxNet, CarboAfrica, International Soil Moisture Networks (ISMN) and to calibration/validation campaigns for satellite missions such as SMOS (Europe/France/Spain), MEGHA-TROPIQUES (France/India) or SWAP(NASA). AMMA-CATCH fills a gap over a region, West Africa, where environmental data are largely lacking, and thus, it can usefully contribute to the international networking effort for environmental monitoring and research. 

Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa

D. Rowell (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), B. Booth, (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom), S. Nicholson. (Florida State University, Tallahassee, United States of America), P. Good (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom)

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Reconciling Past and Future Rainfall Trends over East Africa

D. Rowell (1) ; B. Booth, (1) ; S. Nicholson. (2) ; P. Good (1)
(1) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; (2) Florida State University, Department of earth, ocean and atmospheric science, Tallahassee, United States of America

Abstract content

It is well known that rainfall during the East African Long Rains season has declined over recent decades, whereas the majority of climate models predict an increase due to anthropogenic carbon emissions. This raises questions about either the reliability of the model projections, or when we might expect this drought to turn to more abundant rainfall and perhaps more frequent flooding.

We first list all hypotheses that may conceivably explain this paradox, our aim being to include all possibilities regardless of preconceptions as to their likelihood:

• A: The recent observed trend is due to poor quality data.

• B: The projected trend arises from poor modelling of key processes.

• C: Trends are due to natural variability.• D: The balance between competing forcings is changing, with the past trend driven by aerosol emissions and the future trend driven by carbon emissions.

• E: The past trend has been driven by land-use changes.

• F: The mechanistic response to CO2 emissions is non-linear

.• Some combination of the above.

Regarding A, there is good observational evidence for a recent downward trend in rainfall. Regarding B, careful and substantial further research is essential to confidently refute or accept this idea.

The possibility that the observed trend is due to natural variability (C) is assessed using two approaches. Both suggest that the recent Long Rains droughts are either due to a very unusual natural event of the climate system, or (more likely) are at least partly due to anthropogenic forcing. Hypothesis D, that the recent observed rainfall trend may be due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions, eg. from Asia, is investigated using CMIP5 sensitivity experiments. These reveal a sometimes significant, but highly model-dependent, impact on SST trends over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, which are thought to have caused the recent Long Rains droughts. Other CMIP5 experiments suggest that land-use changes are unlikely to have caused the recent droughts, and that the response to CO2 forcing over East Africa is not substantially non-linear (Hypotheses E and F).

Further work should therefore focus on improving the modelling of aerosol impacts on regional rainfall changes, on providing a well-considered ‘expert judgement’ of the reliability of the model’s projections for the coming century, and better understanding the relevant natural variability.

Heat effects of ambient apparent temperature on total non-accidental mortality in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, South Africa: 2006-2010

J. Wichmann (University of Pretoria, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa)

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Heat effects of ambient apparent temperature on total non-accidental mortality in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, South Africa: 2006-2010

J. Wichmann (1)
(1) University of Pretoria, School of Health Systems and Public Health, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa

Abstract content

INTRODUCTION

Although many studies of temperature have been conducted in other disciplines such as climatology, they have only received greater attention in public health and epidemiology in the past decade. However, very few studies have been conducted in Africa and none which also controlled for possible confounding by air pollution. Epidemiological studies are crucial to understand possible local human health impacts due to climate change, and to the development of adaptation strategies to mitigate such impacts.

METHODS

The objective of this study was to investigate the influence of heat effects of ambient apparent temperature (Tapp) on total non-accidental mortality in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, South Africa (2006-2010) using the time-series and case-crossover epidemiological study designs. The heat effect was investigated for apparent temperature above the city threshold, 15°C, 20°C and 13°C for Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg, respectively. The three cities are classified in different Köppen-Geiger climatic zones: Cape Town has a Mediterranean climate (Csb). Durban has a humid subtropical climate (Cfa), that closely borders a tropical wet and dry climate (Aw). Johannesburg has a subtropical highland climate (Cwb).

RESULTS

In Cape Town, total non-accidental mortality significantly increased by 1.1% and 2.1% for all ages (60228 deaths) and >=60 year olds (28383 deaths), respectively per °C increase in Tapp above 15°C (lag0-1). No heat effect was observed for 0-4 year olds (4649 deaths). The maximum Tapp (lag0-1) observed was 27°C.

In Durban, total non-accidental mortality significantly increased by 1.0%, 1.4% and 1.9% for all ages (95269 deaths), >=60 year olds (28801 deaths) and 0-4 year olds (8628 deaths), respectively per °C increase in Tapp above 20°C (lag0-1). The maximum Tapp (lag0-1) observed was 31°C.

In Johannesburg, total non-accidental mortality significantly increased by 0.5% and 1.2% for all ages (94900 deaths) and >=60 year olds (31859 deaths), respectively per °C increase in Tapp above 13°C (lag0-1). No heat effect was observed for 0-4 year olds (10080 deaths). The maximum Tapp (lag0-1) observed was 24°C.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate that the health of the South African population living in Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg is at risk with increases in Tapp. The study will be expanded to include four other South African cities located in different Köppen-Geiger climatic zones. Cause-specific mortality, such as respiratory and cardiovascular mortality, will also be investigated.

Dr

L. Andre (University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon)

Abstract details
Dr

S. Fuss (1)
(1) Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Resources and International Trade, Berlin, Germany

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Climate analysis at local scale in the context of climate change

Issues related to climate change increasingly concern the functioning of local scale geo-systems. A global change will necessarily affect local climates. In this context, the potential impacts of climate change lead to numerous interrogations concerning adaptation. Despite numerous studies on the impact of projected global warming on different regions, global atmospheric models (GCM) are not adapted to local scales and, as a result, impacts at local scales are still approximate. Although real progress in regional climate modeling was realized over the past years, no operative model is in use yet to simulate climate at local scales (ten or so meters). It is therefore at a finer spatial scale, which considers land surface characteristics, it will be possible to assess the impacts of climate change. Our scientific approach aims to develop a methodology based on climatic observations in situ and on spatial modeling of climate, which permits to evaluate the spatial variability of atmospheric parameters at fine scales (mean values ​​and climatic extremes). By completing the lack of data at local scales, this work allows to improve the understanding on climate changes that may appear at local scale and thus advance the assessment of the potential impacts. This methodology is developed and applied in agro climatology (viticulture) and in urban climatology.

In viticulture, the LIFE-ADVICLIM (LIFE13 ENV/FR/001512: ADapatation of VIticulture to CLIMate change : High resolution observations of adaptation scenarii for viticulture) project aims at observing climate at local scales in different European vineyards, representing the climate diversity in European wine regions ; simulating climate and climate change in order to produce a fine scale assessment of the climate change impacts, thereafter simulating scenarii of adaptation for viticulture. Climate modeling at fine scales will include (i) the output from numerical EURO-CORDEX models with a kilometer resolution (ii) the spatial modeling of climatic data from the measurement networks using multicriteria modeling at very high resolution (90 m), and (iii) the future climate simulations using meso-scale climatic model ran under different scenarios of climate change. (i) The coarse resolution output from numerical climate models require downscaling. We use the downscaling output of EURO-CORDEX. It will provide knowledge and understanding of  climate variability at meso-scale in the different studied European wine regions. Climatic data from national weather station networks will be used to validate the outputs of modelled data. (ii) In order to construct fine-scale spatial temperature fields, the multicriteria modelling will be used. This approach takes environmental factors into account. Indeed, the role of topographic factors in the spatial variability of temperatures at fine scales, in addition to the influence of geographical location (latitude/longitude) at larger scale has already been demonstrated. This type of modeling will make use of the climatic data provided by the fine scale network. (iii) We use simulations of climate change scenarios (for Europe) carried out CORDEX program

For example, the results of the measurements and modeling adapted at terroir scales have permitted to highlight a strong spatial variability of climate at very small spaces. In terms of temperatures, the spatial differences generated by the local conditions (topography, etc.) are very often greater than the increase in temperatures simulated by the different scenarios of IPCC for the next 50 years. Vine growers adapt their practices to this spatial variability of climate that partly determines the characteristics and uniqueness of their wine. In the context of climate change, this approach of a spatial analysis could be a method to adapt to the temporal changes in climate, especially in the short and medium term.

In urban climatogy, the same scientific approach (measurement and modeling at fine scales) has been applied. The same methodology was applied in Rennes city. The results showed a strong spatial variability of the temperatures in relation to local characteristics of the city (eg green areas, densely built-up urban area...). In the context of global change, climate analysis at fine scales helps to define the development policies.

Climate change in a tropical region: the case of LAMTO reserve in Côte d'Ivoire

K. Benjamin (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody - Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), F. Yoroba (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody - Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), A. Diawara (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), Y. Kouadio (University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody - Abidjan, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

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Climate change in a tropical region: the case of LAMTO reserve in Côte d'Ivoire

K. Benjamin (1) ; F. Yoroba (1) ; A. Diawara (2) ; Y. Kouadio (1)
(1) University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody - Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) University Felix Houphouet Boigny - Cocody Abidjan, Physic, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Abstract content

LAMTO reserve is located on the center of Côte d’Ivoire in West Africa. Climate variability of LAMTO reserve was studied over the period from 1962 to 2010 (49 years). This study uses climate data (precipitation and temperature) measured on LAMTO geophysical station. In general, rainfall decreased in the reserve. Compared to the average of the 49 years, the region recorded a rainfall deficit over thirty years (1971 to 2000). This deficit was more pronounced during the 90s. On the over side, during the period 2000 to 2010, the rainfall increased.

 

The region recorded an increase of the mean temperature  (+1.4°C) compared to 1960s. This is a sign of global warming. In contrast, from 2001 to 2010, the average minimum temperature decreased (-2.43°C). In fact, this fall causes the decrease of the average mean temperature (-1.25°C) of this decade.

Using multi-agent simulation to assess the impact of adaptation scenario on agricultural land use change and household food availability in northern Ghana

B. Badmos (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana), S. Agodzo (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana), G. Villamor (Centre for Development Research, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany), S. Odai (Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana)

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Using multi-agent simulation to assess the impact of adaptation scenario on agricultural land use change and household food availability in northern Ghana

B. Badmos (1) ; S. Agodzo (1) ; G. Villamor (2) ; S. Odai (1)
(1) Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, Ghana; (2) Centre for Development Research, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany

Abstract content

The impact of climate change and variability on the growth and development of sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) is severe. Farmers are already changing their agricultural land-use to adapt to the impacts of changing climate. In Ghana, agriculture contributes to food availability and accessibility of some food commodities consumed annually. The capability of agriculture to ensure food availability has been affected by low production, and climate change also plays a significant impact. National policies and strategies to sustain food security at a high level have concentrated on increasing domestic production. Some of the policies aimed at improving farm household resilience to the impacts of climate change may have implication on land-use change. Hence, adequate understanding on the impact of these policies in a temporal manner is vital. This study therefore applied multi-agent simulation (MAS) model to assess the impact of adaptation scenario on agricultural land use change and farm household food availability in northern Ghana. MAS model is able to simulate the impact of human decision processes explicitly. Few studies applied MAS model to relate adaptation with changing climate in West Africa. Application of MAS model for land-use change studies is still at embryonic phase in Africa

We applied the Land Use Dynamic Simulator (LUDAS) as a MAS model to investigate the impact of farm credit as adaptation strategy to climate variability on agricultural land-use change and farm households’ food availability in Vea catchment, Upper East Region of Ghana. The model was parameterised using 186 surveyed farm households. From these households, we identified the determinants of their crop choices grouped into household characteristics (e.g., age of head, household size, dependency ratio) and farm plots characteristics (e.g., soil type, wetness index, elevation, upslope area, plot size and proximity features). The crop choice sub-model is directly linked to an agricultural yield sub-model to determine the yields of selected crops. To adapt to climate variability in the study area, household choice of maize adoption with respect to maize cultivation credit (maize credit scenario) was integrated in the decision making and simulated for a 20-year period, and compare with the business-as-usual scenario.

Findings show that under maize credit scenario, maize adopters increased from about 20 % to about 50 % and the area allocated for maize cultivation significantly increased by about 266% at the expense of traditional crops. Average annual aggregated household crop yield was 6.3 % higher under the maize credit scenario as compared to business-as-usual scenario. In conclusion, this study shows that access to credit can significantly influence agricultural land-use change and food availability in the study area. However, food may be available as a result of access to farm credit, but sustaining it is a big question.

Description of the agro-climatological characteristics of the rainy season in southwestern Burkina Faso for the 1970-2013 period

B. Ibrahim (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), W. Fonta (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), B. Barry (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), S. Sanfo (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso), K. Greenough (West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso)

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Description of the agro-climatological characteristics of the rainy season in southwestern Burkina Faso for the 1970-2013 period

B. Ibrahim (1) ; W. Fonta (1) ; B. Barry (1) ; S. Sanfo (1) ; K. Greenough (1)
(1) West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Competence Center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

Abstract content

The rain-fed agricultural system of West Africa is very vulnerable to climate variability. The different drought phases during the last four decades (1970-2010) revealed the weakness of the agriculture system with a high decrease in crop production, and a significant deficit in food availability. Many studies have identified the seasonal pattern of the rain events during the rainy season as a key driver of agricultural production failure during these drought phases. In this study, rainy season potentialities with regard to crop growth (maize, millet, and sorghum) are described for southwestern Burkina Faso through seven key climate characteristics: annual rainfall amount, rainy season onset and offset, dry spell duration, seasonal maximum rain event, maximum temperature, and wind speed. These characteristics are calculated from daily climate data recorded by a local network of 16 stations from 1970 to 2013. A computation of the intensity and occurrence of these characteristics during the rainy seasons help to draw a description of the drought phases. The rainy seasons during the drought phases are characterized by a low annual rainfall amount, a late rainy season onset, and a more frequent long dry spells (>7days). Unfortunately, the long dry spells mostly occurred during the most sensitive crop phases: leaf initiation, flowering and grain filling. Moreover, the dry spells are accompanied by high daytime temperature. The intensity and the probability of occurrence of the other extremes events (hot spell and strong wing) in the rainy season are very high in the study area mainly during the sowing and the harvest periods.

The adaptation strategies to these worst climate conditions in the region should include a selection of crop varieties with short cycle and the implementation of a supplementary irrigation system and an agricultural insurance scheme.

Revivifying a 13th Century Craft to Enhance Community-based Adaptation through Ecosystems and Farm-lands Resilience enhancement in Uganda

D. Nkwanga (Nature Palace Foundation, Kampala, Uganda)

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Revivifying a 13th Century Craft to Enhance Community-based Adaptation through Ecosystems and Farm-lands Resilience enhancement in Uganda

D. Nkwanga (1)
(1) Nature Palace Foundation, Programs, Kampala, Uganda

Abstract content

Bark-cloth making is a 13th Century craftsmanship steeped in ancient culture and tradition where it played significant cultural, financial, social and conservation roles.   Uganda’s bark-cloth, a unique fabric proclaimed by UNESCO as ‘a masterpiece of the world's intangible heritage’ and indigenous textile production craft, is produced from Ficus natalensis.   The F. natalensis trees are cultivated on the farm in an agro-forestry system intercropped with other crops.   The bark of the tree is harvested, without harming the tree, to make an environmentally-friendly, renewable material.     Where the trees have been cultivated it has been found that crops like coffee, bananas  and others are able to withstand dry spells better  than where it is not cultivated.  Beyond this F. natalensis branches are harvested to provide a sustainable supply of firewood making households energy-secure and  reducing on deforestation – cooking energy being one of the major causes of deforestation and environmental degradation; leaves of the trees provide fodder for domestic animals; and, the sale of bark-cloth provides a passive income that is always accessed by households even if the weather conditions are not favorable for seasonal crops.   The presentation discusses the potential of bark-cloth making as a stimulus to long-term community-based adaptation.

Determination of malaria parameters using meteorological data sets of Senegal stations and reanalyses products

I. Diouf (University UCAD, Dakar, Senegal), A. T. Gaye (University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Dakar, Senegal), A. Deme (Gaston Berger University of Senegal, Saint-Louis, Senegal), J.-A. Ndione (Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar, Senegal), B. R. F. (Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid , Spain)

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Determination of malaria parameters using meteorological data sets of Senegal stations and reanalyses products

I. Diouf (1) ; AT. Gaye () ; A. Deme (2) ; JA. Ndione (3) ; B. R. F. (4)
(1) University UCAD, Lab. of atmosphere and oceanic physics, Dakar, Senegal; (2) Gaston Berger University of Senegal, Applied Sciences and Technologies, Saint-Louis, Senegal; (3) Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar, Senegal; (4) Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de físicas departamento de meteorología, Madrid , Spain

Abstract content

Climate behavior is an important factor for malaria development, a vector-borne disease which is a really public health problem, particularly in Sub-Saharan part of Africa. High temperatures are favorable for the quick growth of mosquitoes and the shortening of the reproductive cycle of the pathogen known as plasmodium, while the proliferation of vectors in breeding sites is driven by precipitations. Due to difficult access of observations datasets, this study has a huge component of simulations of malaria parameters using the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM) developed by Hoshen et al (2004). The inputs of the model are meteorological data of stations and different reanalyses products. The results of this study show that a two-month lag is often observed between the maximum of precipitations and the peak of malaria incidence in Senegal. Malaria occurrence period is centered on the September-October-November period corresponding to the end of the rainy season warm and humid. These findings are highlighted both with stations datasets and reanalyses.

Otherwise, this study attempts to assess the impact of past, present and future climate features on vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Our findings about malaria changes under climate change will be useful in order to prevent malaria outbreaks due to high probability of climate change.

These results taking account the main climate and environmental behaviors could be useful in the prevention of malaria in Senegal and elsewhere.

Climate projections in West Africa: evidence and uncertainties?

A. Deme (Gaston Berger University of Senegal, Saint-Louis, Senegal), A. T. Gaye (University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Dakar, Senegal), F. Hourdin (IPSL-LMD, Paris, France)

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Climate projections in West Africa: evidence and uncertainties?

A. Deme (1) ; AT. Gaye (2) ; F. Hourdin (3)
(1) Gaston Berger University of Senegal, Applied Sciences and Technologies, Saint-Louis, Senegal; (2) University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Laboratory of atmospheric and ocean physics, Dakar, Senegal; (3) IPSL-LMD, Paris, France

Abstract content

The Subsaharan Africa response to global warming was uncertain in the models of the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) used for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which even disagree on the sign of future rainfall anomalies over this region. This disagreement remains even among models that correctly simulate the twentieth-century West African climate. Our study investigates results from a new ensemble of state-of-the-art climate modelswhich participated of the fifth phase of CMIP (CMIP5) and raises several questions. Do the models agree more on Subsaharan Africa rainfall projections ? Do they well simulate the partial rainfall recovery observed over the last decades ?  How well are models able to reproduce the main features of the West African Monsoon (WAM) ?

Preliminary results of twelve CMIP5 models have shown, in despite of great progress in the representation of MAO characteristics, little changement on their climate projections on West Africa compared to CMIP3. Robust tendancy to warming over the Sahel, larger by 15 to 50% compared to global warming is noticed. The spread of models projections remains very large for both temperature and precipitations. But the dispersion in surface air temperature is large over the Sahel and Sahara and seems to be linked to the radiative aerosols properties and surface albedo in this region.  Most of CMIP5 models project increasing temperature with 1.8-4.2°C amplitude in a rcp4.5 scenario (3.5-8.5°C in a rcp8.5) in Western Sahel (15°W-5°W) ; these values ​​being slightly higher in Eastern Sahel (10°E-35°E). The uncertainty temperature changes will have dramatic consequences as those associated with precipitation. An opposite response between the western and eastern Sahel for rainfall projections seems to be robust. However, some « outliers models » predict rainfall increase which cancels part of the Sahel warming during the summer monsoon. This finding on the western Sahel gathers more and more models as we advance into the 21st century: 40% for the period 2011-2040, 60% for the 2041-2070 period and more 80% in the last period. In contrast, the eastern Sahel, although the consensus model is relatively high, it decreases by 80% in the first period to 70% in the last period. The rcp4.5 scenario shows precipitation oscillations around a mean value (positive for the first zone/negative for the second)  as well in the East and the West of Sahel, indicating a high interannual variability ; while rcp85 scenario gives a tendency net increase of abnormal rainfall in the eastern reaches 100 mm at the end of the 21st century.  A particular domain (5°W-10°E), encompassing western Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria and eastern Niger, where consensus between the models is low on changing rainfall for two scenarios have been charachterized.

 

Finally, our study indicates that further investigations on the rainfall response mechanisms in these outliers models should help to assess their credibility and need to be explored.

Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the senegal river basin

M. L. Mbaye (Universite Cheikh Anta Diop, Fann-Dakar, Senegal), A. Haensler (Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany), S. Hagemann (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany), A. T. Gaye (University Cheikh Anta Diop Dakar, Dakar, Senegal)

Abstract details
Assessment of climate change impact on water resources in the senegal river basin

ML. Mbaye (1) ; A. Haensler (2) ; S. Hagemann (3) ; AT. Gaye ()
(1) Universite Cheikh Anta Diop, Ecole Superieure Polytechnique, Fann-Dakar, Senegal; (2) Climate Service Center, Hamburg, Germany; (3) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany

Abstract content

In this study we assess the impact of climate change on water resources by using uncorrected and bias corrected data of the regional climate model REMO simulations over the Senegal River Basin (SRB). Both simulations were used as input of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology – Hydrological Model (MPI-HM) over the Upper Senegal Basin (USB).

Applying the bias correction simulations of present day climate (1971-2000) substantially improved for both temporal and spatial variations of the analyzed climate parameters (precipitation, temperature) when compared to observations and independent station data. Additionally, the bias corrected input give better representation of the mean river flow regimes and the 10th (low) and 90th (high) flows at the outlet of the USB.

For the future, the regional climate model projections for precipitation show a general decrease by the end of 21st century (2071-2100) for both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways) and datasets in the majority of the basin, except the Guinean highlands where slight increase is found. In case of the potential changes of the maximum number of dry days and wet days, the northern basin is likely to face the most pronounced increase of dry days and decrease of wet days, although slight increase of heavy rainfall is found with similar spatial patterns in both data. Higher decadal variability of the maximum 5-day precipitation with the uncorrected in RCP8.5 is projected, while uncorrected and bias corrected data depict similar temporal variability for extremely wet days. Furthermore, a general temperature increase is projected over the entire basin for both scenarios, but more pronounced under the RCP8.5 scenario. Warm night’s percent is found to be higher than warm day’s percent. As for the potential changes of the basin’s hydrology, a general decrease of river discharge, runoff, actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture is found under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in all simulations. The decrease is higher under RCP8.5 with uncorrected data in the northern basin. However, there are some localized increases in some parts of the basin (e.g Guinean Highlands). Furthermore, the available water resources are projected to substantially decrease by more than -50% in the majority of the basin for all data, except the Guinean highlands where no change is projected.

The impact of the bias correction on the projected climate change signal, affects mainly the magnitude of the signal rather than its direction of change although some alteration may occur in particular months and localities.

An observatory for farmers adaptation to climate change in Thies district

A. Sall (Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar, Senegal)

Abstract details
An observatory for farmers adaptation to climate change in Thies district

A. Sall (1)
(1) Centre de Suivi Ecologique, Dakar, Senegal

Abstract content

In 2011, the Centre de Suivi Ecologique and Senegalese partners have developed an innovative participatory observatory. Through exchanges between researchers, policy makers, farmers organizations and NGOs in the Thies district, the observatory plays a crucial role by sharing useful information for vulnerable communities to adapt to climate variability and change. For example farmers selected millet varieties more resilient to increase yields and fodder reserves.

Trends of Heat Exposure in Northern Ghana

K. Frimpong (Edith Cowan University, perth, Australia)

Abstract details
Trends of Heat Exposure in Northern Ghana

K. Frimpong (1)
(1) Edith Cowan University, Center for Ecosystem management, perth, Australia

Abstract content

Farmers are largely exposed to heat in the performance of their outdoor activities especially in developing countries. As global climate change is intesified, farmers occupational health and productivity need to be safequarded to ensure food security in the developing world where mechanized farming is at the bearst minimum This study present results of yearly trend of heat exposure in northerast Ghana where temperature could reach sa high as 45 degrees celcius with WBGT in the of 29 to 37 degrees celcius. Farmers work with minimal rest which can be injarious to their health, productivity and food security. The study uses Lascar El USB temperature and humidity sensor which can record temperature and humidity for longer period of time. The results are expressed in terms of heat stress to show the yearly pattern in the north east part of Ghana.

Climate and climate variability: case study of the traditional lowland rice cultivation in the middle and upper Casamance Region

M. Bacci (Institute of Biometeorology, Florence, Italy), M. Pasqui (Institute of Biometeorology, Rome, Italy)

Abstract details
Climate and climate variability: case study of the traditional lowland rice cultivation in the middle and upper Casamance Region

M. Bacci (1) ; M. Pasqui (2)
(1) Institute of Biometeorology, National Research Council, Florence, Italy; (2) Institute of Biometeorology, National research council, Rome, Italy

Abstract content

The Casamance Region is an enclave territory in southern Senegal that has suffered from the sociopolitical instability caused by the separatist movement for the independence of the region in the 1990s and 2000. This has led to a significant delay in infrastructure development to support the economy of the region. Nowadays, it has an unexploited potential due to a series of structural limits for the creation of an efficient supply chain for local agricultural production. The change in the security context of the region and the new Senegal rural development policies provide new opportunities for agricultural production in Casamance.

Among the various food crops, the traditional lowland rice cultivation by woman in the secondary valleys along the Casamance River is a peculiarity of the region. This crop is mainly grown to cover the food needs of the farmer’s family, therefore within a strategy of food security. There are many limits to rice production in the region. The lack of mechanization, the absence of a regular distribution of improved cultivars, poor labor quality and quantity and conflicts with the livestock rearing in the valley make the system very fragile and strongly dependent on seasonal weather patterns. For these reasons, the traditional rice cultivation is becoming marginalized, with a gradual abandonment of the valleys.

In order to preserve lowland rice production and make it sustainable, an analysis of meteorological factors that most influence the crop yield aims to provide useful information for the identification of alternative cultivation strategies and implementation of direct and indirect mitigation practices on crops. The study therefore aims to assess recent climate change recorded in the region with particular attention to the parameters determining a bad or good rice crop.

Weather data from rain gauges are quite scarce in the region, often limited only to the registration of the total daily rainfall in the major towns. It was therefore chosen to use the CHIRPS daily rainfall estimate dataset that covers the period from 1981 to 2013 at 0.05° resolution. Attention has focused on assessing the fundamental parameters of the growing season such as total rainfall, number of rainy days, average daily rainfall, onset and the cessation of the growing season. In addition, we evaluated the incidence of dry periods and heavy rains during the germination and flowering period of rice, as these are the most vulnerable stages of the crop. The relationship of these parameters with large scale oceanic and atmospheric forcing was also evaluated.

The variability of these climatic parameters over time are a source of uncertainty for local farmers decision-making process and their ability to adapt to new climatic forcing. Describing the climate, identifying observed trends and overlapping the future predictions derived from atmospheric General Circulation Models has allowed us to define a set of future scenarios that should guide local farmers and policy makers in the orientation of agricultural development policies for the middle and upper Casamance Region.

A Bayesian Trend analysis of annual maximum stream flows of the Oti River Basin (West Africa)

B. H. Maleki (WASCAL GRP - Climate Change and Water Resources, University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin, Benin)

Abstract details
A Bayesian Trend analysis of annual maximum stream flows of the Oti River Basin (West Africa)

B. H. Maleki (1)
(1) WASCAL GRP - Climate Change and Water Resources, University of Abomey-Calavi, Benin, Benin

Abstract content

Non-stationary analysis of hydrological extremes is crucial for characterizing hydrologic phenomena, planning and management of hydraulic and water resources systems. Moreover, Bayesian analysis appears  to  be  a  consistent  framework  for  deriving  complex  statistical  models  and implementing uncertainties into induction problems. For this study which is conducted in the Oti River Basin, West Africa (75,859 km²), a set of discharge data from two gauging stations in Benin (upstream at Porga) and Ghana (downstream at Saboba) were obtained from the national hydrological services. These records were quality checked and preprocessed in order to derive long term annual maximum stream flows (AMSF) time series between 1952 and 2008. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was fitted to AMSF under stationary and non-stationary conditions. The non-stationary condition tested here is the variation of AMSF over time. To this end a time covariate was introduced in the location parameter of GEV distribution using a Bayesian approach. The results showed better non-stationary fitting for the upstream site (Porga) which exhibits significant decreasing trend in AMSF. The reservoir between the two gauging stations strongly controls the flows at the downstream gauging station which in turn affected the detection of no significant trend in AMSF while annual maximum rainfall are changing over the basin. The estimated return levels under non-stationary conditions showed a decreasing trend over time. This study provides good baseline information for climate change and flood frequency research within the basin. However, further investigations are required to understand the impact of the reservoir on the downstream discharge in general, but also on extremes and the occurrence of floods.

Climate Change and Agricultural Production: capitalisation of the farming techniques for the food security in Benin

J. B. Vodounou (University of Parakou, Parakou, Benin, Benin)

Abstract details
Climate Change and Agricultural Production: capitalisation of the farming techniques for the food security in Benin

JB. Vodounou (1)
(1) University of Parakou, Département de Géographie et Aménagement du Territoire, Parakou, Benin, Benin

Abstract content

The capitalization of the farming techniques for food security in Benin has been studied. The effects of climate change have impacted the farming techniques of the populations in order to adapt to the new conditions imposed by climate. Throughout the country, the rainfall changeablenesses have modified not only the dates of seedling but also the abandonment of some speculations. In order to ensure their food security, the populations have proceeded to a revision of their farming techniques. The situation in Benin can be summarized as follows three zones (North, Centre and South). As a matter of fact, in the north 40% of the yielded speculations today can be considered as introduced twenty years ago. In this area in the years 60s there are crops such as yam, voandzou, maize, peanuts, and garden pea. The current crops are yam, maize, and sorghum. Crops such as peanuts, voandzou are more and more withdrawn from the speculation ranges. Furthermore, the situation in the centre of Benin is enough animated. In effect, about 65% yielded speculations in the past were abandoned at the profit of new estimated ones more adapted to the current climatic conditions. To ensure their food security, the populations of this zone have spared the speculations such as maize, yam, and peanut. Crops such as sorghum, millet, voandzou and garden peas are almost given up and replaced by soya which represents now the speculation that occupies 45% of the farmed surfaces. In the south of the country, about 30% only of the farming techniques have undergone changes. The climatic changeableness has provoked for instance the introduction of cotton crop which in the past was quasi impossible. But one must understand that in majority the south depends much more on the centre and north as regard food crops.

Key words: Climate change, agricultural production, capitalization, food security, Benin.

Assessing Impact of Climate Change on Vegetative Species Diversity Using the Normalised Difference Water Index: The Case of Mutirikwi Sub-catchment, Masvingo Zimbabwe

L. Chapungu (Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe)

Abstract details
Assessing Impact of Climate Change on Vegetative Species Diversity Using the Normalised Difference Water Index: The Case of Mutirikwi Sub-catchment, Masvingo Zimbabwe

L. Chapungu (1)
(1) Great Zimbabwe University, Physics, Geography and Environmental Science, Masvingo, Zimbabwe

Abstract content

Vegetative species diversity is essential for human well-being because it provides services, such as food, medicines, clean water and soil stabilization within a catchment or sub-catchment. However, it is under threat from climate change which poses a challenge by exacerbating the impacts of other pressures. Climate change affects different ecosystems in different ways, depending on the complexity and original characteristics of the system, geographical location and presence of factors that may regulate the extent of the changes. In southern Africa in general and Zimbabwe in particular, there is still paucity of scientific understanding of climate change’s impact on vegetative species diversity specifically species richness and evenness. A plethora of studies have claimed that climate change affects biodiversity but without focusing on specific diversity indices. This poses challenges when designing adaptive and mitigative strategies that are ecosystem and species specific. This study assesses the effects of climate change on vegetative species diversity in Mutirikwi sub-catchment using the Normalised Difference Water Index (NDWI).

To achieve the research objective, the relationship between vegetative diversity indices (richness and evenness) and climatic variables (rainfall and temperature) was explored based on species data directly collected from the field over a 3 year period and climate data collected from three local stations (Makoholi, Masvingo airport and Buffalo range). Relationship between NDWI and species diversity indices was examined to confirm the utility of remote sensing in predicting vegetative diversity. NDWI was calculated using the formula:

NDWI=(Ç·NIR-Ç·SWIR)/(Ç·NIR+Ç·SWIR).

Where Ç·NIR and Ç·SWIR are the reflectances of the near-infrared (NIR, 0.78–0.89 m) and shortwave-infrared (SWIR, 1.58–1.75 m) regions, respectively.

The species diversity indices were calculated using the Shannon Weaver Index which usually combines aspects of richness and evenness. This index was calculated using the formula:

H = -∑ (Pi In (P) Where the summation is over all species and P1 is the relative abundance of species in the quadrat. This index measures the average degree of uncertainty in predicting to what species chosen at random from a collection of S species and N individuals will belong. Species evenness (E) was calculated using the formula:

E= H/In (S) Where H is the Shannon Weaver index and S is species richness observed within the quadrat.

The resultant predictive model was used to estimate changes in species diversity over a 40 year period (1974-2014). The species diversity data was then regressed with climatic data for the same period. These data were also modelled to project future changes in vegetative diversity in the face of climate change.

Preliminary findings reflect a significant (P<0.05) correlation between species diversity and climatic variables. The results also indicate that there is a significant (P=0.003; α=0.05) relationship between species richness and NDWI. Species evenness was also significantly correlated (P=0.04, α=0.05) with NDWI. This implies that we can use NDWI to assess changes in species diversity over time. The Mann Kendall test revealed a significant decrease in the rainfall received within the catchment over the 40 year period (1974-2014). The minimum and maximum temperatures over the period were significantly increasing. These changes in climatic variables were matched with a decrease in species richness and evenness. Some species tend to be succumbing to the environmental changes influenced by climate change resulting in their changes in phenology, abundance and distribution.

The study concludes that climate change in Mutirikwi sub-catchment is influencing species diversity through changing species phenological features, abundance and distribution. Besides being a good indicator of water content in leaves, NDWI has proved to be a useful indicator of species diversity. The study leads to the understanding of the relationship between vegetative species diversity and climate change and this provides a platform for nations to devise strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems to climatic changes through the adoption of species based adaptive and mitigative strategies.

Key Words: Climate Change, vegetative species, Normalised Difference Water Index and Mutirikwi sub-catchment.

Impact of climate on groundwater recharge in the crystalline basement rocks aquifer of Northern Ghana

K. V. Koffi (WASCAL/ University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin)

Abstract details
Impact of climate on groundwater recharge in the crystalline basement rocks aquifer of Northern Ghana

KV. Koffi (1)
(1) WASCAL/ University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin

Abstract content

Water is the cornerstone of human life and for all economic developments. West Africa and specifically Ghana are no exception to this reality.

Northern Ghana is characterized by a semi-arid climate, with prolonged dry season (7 months of very few rainfall) leading to the drying up of many rivers and streams. In addition, rainfall is highly variable in space and time. Therefore, surface water is unreliable and insufficient to meet the water demands for socio-economic development in this area. As a result, the area is heavily dependent on groundwater for domestic water supply as well as for dry season irrigation of vegetables (cash crops).   

However, aquifers in northern Ghana are dominantly the hard rock type (Crystalline basement rock). This aquifer has no primary porosity and may not be able to sustain the increasing demand on the resource. Further, climate change may worsen the situation as recharge is dependent on rainfall in northern Ghana. Therefore, it is important to understand exactly how climate change will impact on recharge to the groundwater for sustainable development and management of the resource.

Previous groundwater studies in Northern Ghana barely analyzed the impact of Climate change on the recharge to the groundwater. This research is aimed at determining the current relationship between groundwater recharge and rainfall and to use the relationships to determine the impacts of changes in climate on the groundwater recharge. The results will inform plans and strategies for sustainably managing groundwater resources in Ghana and the Volta basin.

Role of groundwater in buffering changes in climatic and anthropogenic conditions: experiences from Sub-Saharan Africa

J.-M. Vouillamoz (IRD, Cotonou, Benin), C. Tindimugaya (Ministry of water and environment, Kampala, Uganda)

Abstract details
Role of groundwater in buffering changes in climatic and anthropogenic conditions: experiences from Sub-Saharan Africa

JM. Vouillamoz (1) ; C. Tindimugaya (2)
(1) IRD, Ird/ujf-grenoble-1/cnrs/g-inp – umr lthe, Cotonou, Benin; (2) Ministry of water and environment, Commissioner for water resources planning and regulation, Kampala, Uganda

Abstract content

Currently, more than 300 million people in Africa do not have access to safe drinking water. Expanding irrigation to enhance food security is also a growing necessity. Moreover, most countries where population is expected to grow rapidly in the future are the same countries that have high levels of malnourishment and also limited access to drinking water. The proportion of the population that depends on groundwater for its daily water supply is estimated at about 75%. In the future, the ability to increase reliable access to water supplies will also depend on the development of groundwater, which is generally the only perennial water source in arid and semi-arid regions. One of the most important advantages of groundwater as compared to surface water is its much slower response to climate and anthropogenic changes. Indeed, the amount of water stored in the rock reservoir buffers the transient response of the system to conditions that vary over time. Thus, increasing appropriate groundwater supplies in Africa can significantly increase the resilience of communities to climate variability.

One of the most important difficulties in assessing groundwater resources is that groundwater is underground and hence hidden from our eyes. Reliable quantification of groundwater storage and recharge is not straightforward. Moreover, the projected impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge obtained from large-scale models are uncertain, and the scale of models is not appropriate to groundwater systems which are highly spatially heterogeneous over about 40% of Africa surface area where hard rock aquifers occur.

To illustrate the role groundwater can play in buffering changes, we present the results of a study carried out in Benin in a widespread environment of Sub-Saharan Africa (i.e. hard rock aquifers). Thanks to a novel approach, we determined the groundwater storage of our study area (27,200km²) to be 440mm+/-70mm. To assess the buffer capacity of aquifers, we compared groundwater storage to groundwater discharge. Groundwater discharge is the sum of natural discharge plus human abstraction. We evaluated human abstraction at less than 1% of total groundwater discharge. We conclude that increased abstraction due to population growth will probably have a small impact on storage. We calculated buffering capacity as the ratio of current storage to total discharge, and obtained a result of 6years+/-47months. This buffer capacity confirms groundwater’s ability to buffer changes. Finally, our study is intended to promote a more quantitative approach to assessing groundwater resources and to support our ability to adapt to future changes.

Challenges of climate change in Southeastern, Nigeria: Sustainable containment measures

E. Okoyeh (Okoro) (Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, Nigeria, Awka, Anambra, Nigeria, Federal Republic of)

Abstract details
Challenges of climate change in Southeastern, Nigeria: Sustainable containment measures

E. Okoyeh (Okoro) (1)
(1) Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka, Nigeria, Dept. of Geological Sciences, Awka, Anambra, Nigeria, Federal Republic of

Abstract content

Climate change, a global phenomenon has recorded great significant in sub-Sahara Africa and Nigeria in particular. The total environment of land, water and air are under the severe threat of climate change challenges (CCC). The ecological hazards of gully erosion and landslide ravaging Southeastern, Nigeria though geogenic/anthropogenic in origin have been exacerbated by increasing impacts of climate change. The well established variation in the onset and cessation of rainfall attributed to climate change has significant implication on water availability, water quality, ecological hazards, vegetation cover, food security and public health. The torrential rainfall with attendant huge runoff results in flooding. The impacts of climate change induced flooding is significant in rural, semi urban and urban areas of southeastern, Nigeria. Loss of farmland and water supply sources with impact on food and water security respectively has been recorded. Standard of living and sustainable socioeconomic developments are hindered due to climate change challenges (CCC) in Southeastern, Nigeria. Outbreak of water borne diseases especially in the river rein areas is a recurrent trend affecting poverty alleviation and capacity building. Siltation of rivers, lakes and streams is commonplace exacerbating water scarcity and sustainable development. Heavy rainfall that initiates the development of new gully erosion and landslide sites and widening of existing ones is a consequence of climate change challenge (CCC) in the area. Over 750 active gully erosion and landslide sites have been recorded in Southeastern, Nigeria with depth ranging from 2 m to > 300 m and length from 25 m to 2.9 km. Removal of sediments from gully and landslide sites and deposition of same in surface water sources has resulted in the siltation of most rivers and lakes in the area. This is complimented by the excessive heat and temperature of above 400C during the dry season to cause total loss of some surface water bodies. The impact of desert encroachment also abounds with the rate of southwards advancement of desert increasing seasonally. The degradation of the rainforest vegetation to savanna grassland with remnant of rainforest vegetation only around water courses has generated serious concern to all stakeholders in recent time. The rainforest vegetation of southeastern, Nigeria has been severely degraded exposing the arable lands to the scourging effects of climate change. These climate change challenges (CCC) disproportionally affect women and children in the developing economies such as Southeastern, Nigeria. There is need for the creation of awareness on the adverse effects of climate change on the environment in terms of water scarcity, gully development, vegetation degradation and food security. Tree planting campaign of planting two trees at the removal of one should be promoted and given the wide publicity it deserves. Laws prohibiting illegal tree cutting and building along flood plains should be constituted with the political will to punish defaulters. Establishment of research centers for researches on climate change related issues is also recommended.

Recent rainfall variability and vegetation activity in the experimental site of the Upper Ouémé basin (Benin)

S. Bigot (Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE), Grenoble, France), T. Do (Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE), Grenoble, France), B. Dieppois (Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom)

Abstract details
Recent rainfall variability and vegetation activity in the experimental site of the Upper Ouémé basin (Benin)

S. Bigot (1) ; T. Do (1) ; B. Dieppois (2)
(1) Laboratoire d'étude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE), Université Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble, France; (2) Coventry University, Centre for agroecology, water and resilience, Coventry, United Kingdom

Abstract content

From the late 1990s, the Sudano-Sahelian zone is, a priori, wetter than during the two previous decades, which were marked by the development of persistent droughts. This recent evolution is likely to influence local to regional climate and, thus the vegetation cover, the biomass and seasonal phenology in the forest and savannah belt. Contrasted results in simulating the future regional climate trends, however, leaves the future of West African environments widely open and uncertain. Accurate in-situ monitoring is therefore needed to increase knowledge and understanding of West African regional climatic contrasts and, thus, and to exceed diagnostics, which are limited to the semi-continental scales. In this context, an instrumental period was launched in 1997 on the Upper Ouémé meso-scale site (Benin) under the AMMA-CATCH (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis – Coupling the Tropical Atmosphere and the Hydrological Cycle) observation initiative. This experimental catchment basin of approximately 14 366 km², which is influenced by a Sudanian climate, present different hydroclimatic conditions to those studied in the Sahelian regions. This catchment basin show a lower decrease in streamflow during dry periods, and unclear relationships between land degradation, vegetation cover, surface hydrological and climatic fluctuations. By comparing the satellite images during different time-periods, continuously deforestation and clearing land processes is identified since the 1970s, while anthropized fallow land and savannah are increasing by 24% and 22%, respectively.

This study thus aims to a better regional understanding of the recent rainfall variability and of vegetation phenology through the photosynthetic activity. We compare observed bioclimatic patterns among the four main defined as “non-climatic or climatic degradation” versus “climatic or non-climatic greening” by the current conceptual modelling studies. We focus on the 2001–2013 period using in-situ rain-gauges from AMMA-CATCH, 10-day rainfall estimates from satellite data (RFE; 8 × 8 km), and 5-day photosynthetic activity (NDVI EROS-MODIS; 0.5×0.5 km). Although monthly rainfall amounts are underestimed in the RFE data, the interpolated rainfall field from AMMA-CATCH and the RFE dataset are highly correlated (R = 0.93), which ensures a good reproduction of the year-to-year variability.

The recent period (2001–2013), which displays annual rainfall amounts of about 934 to 1302 mm in 2001 and 2003, respectively, is significantly wetter than during the earlier decades (1970s and 1980s) showing regional rainfall amounts rarely above 900 mm. The start of the growing season is significantly correlated with January-May rainfall amounts over the Upper Ouémé catchment and the length of this season is positively correlated with mid-May rainfall amounts. The length of the vegetation activity could therefore be especially sensitive to rainfall at the beginning of the growing phase. Meanwhile, the end of the growing season could be explained by late September to late December rainfall amounts. The end of the growing season is thus delayed by 10 days per decades, e.g., 68th pentad (early December) in 2002 to 70th pentad (late December) in 2010. This could indicate that bioclimatic conditions are more favourable and, thus, lead to a longer duration of photosynthetic activity. This could, however, indicates that green vegetation, which can originate from agricultural land and, thus almost independent from the regional rainfall variability, remain a bit longer in the year. A multivariate statistical analysis of the NDVI thus clearly shows regional contrasts and response specifics over certain areas and in different forms of vegetation in the Upper Ouémé Basin. The contrast between protected native forest (forest reserves) areas and those undergoing a transformation into farmland (crop-growing and fallow land) is very clear. More accurate spatio-temporal analyses (at daily and 250m spatial resolution), such as multi-criteria regional analysis (e.g., dynamic factor analysis), could provide a better understanding of environmental processes involved and the contribution of associated agrosystems.

Impact of climate variability on the water balance of the anthropized Agneby watershed in the southeast of Côte d'Ivoire: application of nTopAmma hydrological model

B. Kamagate (Université Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), N. Dabissi (Université Nangui-Abrogoua Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire), ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast), A. Bamba (Universite Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast), S. Issiaka (Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Abidjan, Ivory Coast)

Abstract details
Impact of climate variability on the water balance of the anthropized Agneby watershed in the southeast of Côte d'Ivoire: application of nTopAmma hydrological model

B. Kamagate (1) ; N. Dabissi (2) ; A. Bamba (3) ; S. Issiaka (4)
(1) Université Nangui Abrogoua, Laboratoire de géosciences et environnement, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (2) Université Nangui-Abrogoua Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire), UFR Sciences et Gestion de l'Environnement (SGE), ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast; (3) Universite Nangui Abrogoua, SGE, Abidjan, Ivory Coast; (4) Université Nangui-Abrogoua, Ufr sge, Abidjan, Ivory Coast

Abstract content

Agneby Watershed (8490 km2) is located in the southeast of Côte d'Ivoire. It is subject to a monsoon (1500 mm annual rainfall) with four contrasted climatic seasons. This basin is also subject to strong human impact that contributes to a change in water balance due to intense agriculture (cocoa, coffee, rubber and food crops).

This work is part of a general framework for understanding the impact of climate variability and agricultural intensification on water resources in the watershed of the Agneby. The main objective of this study is to evaluate by modeling the different terms of the water balance and their evolution over the period 1970-2000. We use a modified version of nTopAmma model developed from observations in the upper basin of Ouémé (wet site AMMA-Catch observatory). The nTopAmma model favours the shallow groundwater efflux as the origin of the flow. The amended taking into account changes in land use and the seasonal cycle of vegetation in the calculation of evapotranspiration can address the impact on the water balance of the plant cover changes.

Comparative study of five statistical methods of climate change analysis in the Niger River basin (West Africa)

D. F. Badou (Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), B. Diekkrüger, (University of Bonn, Bonn, NRW, Germany), A. Abel (Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi, Benin), K. Evison (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract details
Comparative study of five statistical methods of climate change analysis in the Niger River basin (West Africa)

DF. Badou (1) ; B. Diekkrüger, (2) ; A. Abel (1) ; K. Evison (3)
(1) Universite d'Abomey-Calavi, Graduate Research Program on Climate Change and Water resources, Abomey-Calavi, Benin; (2) University of Bonn, Gegraphy, Bonn, NRW, Germany; (3) Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Natural resources and the environment, hydrosciences research group, Pretoria, South Africa

Abstract content

Climate change is characterized by a significant change in the mean values of climate variables. However, detection of trends in climate variables depends on the methods applied. In this study, 4 commonly used statistical methods, Pettitt’s test, Lee and Heghinian's bayesian method, Hubert’s segmentation and Mann-Kendall’s test at 5% significance level are compared to the cross entropy method. The latter is a stochastic optimization technique initially developed for assessing the number and the position of breakpoints in continuous biological data. From a theoretical view point, the approaches of Pettitt as well as Lee and Heghinian provide only one breakpoint. The Hubert’s segmentation gives multiple breakpoints but within a series even just one